Search results for: reaction model

Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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Authors: Jana Gutierez Chvalkovska, Michal Mejstrik, Matej Urban

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There are pending discussions over the mapping of country export potential in order to refocus export strategy of firms and its evidence-based promotion by the Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) and other permitted vehicles of governments. In this paper we develop our version of an applied model that offers “stepwise” elimination of unattractive markets. We modify and calibrate the model for the particular features of the Czech Republic and specific pilot cases where we apply an individual approach to each sector.

Keywords: export strategy, modeling export, calibration, export promotion

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Authors: Enrique Barbieri

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The basic disease-spread model described by three states denoting the susceptible (S), infectious (I), and removed (recovered and deceased) (R) sub-groups of the total population N, or SIR model, has been considered. Heuristic mitigating action profiles of the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical types may be developed in a control design setting for the purpose of reducing the transmission rate or improving the recovery rate parameters in the model. Even though the transmission and recovery rates are not control inputs in the traditional sense, a linear observer and feedback controller can be tuned to generate an asymptotic estimate of the transmission rate for a linearized, discrete-time version of the SIR model. Then, a set of mitigating actions is suggested to steer the basic reproduction number toward unity, in which case the disease does not spread, and the infected population state does not suffer from multiple waves. The special case of piecewise constant transmission rate is described and applied to a seventh-order SEIQRDP model, which segments the population into four additional states. The offline simulations in discrete time may be used to produce heuristic policies implemented by public health and government organizations.

Keywords: control of SIR, observer, SEIQRDP, disease spread

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Authors: Anastasis D. Petrou

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Innovation and strategy discussions do highlight open innovation as a new paradigm in business. Yet, a number of stumbling blocks in the form of closed innovation principles weaved into the fabric of a traditional business model stand in the way of the new paradigm’s momentum to increase value in various business contexts. The paper argues that businesses considering an engagement with the open innovation paradigm would need to take steps to improve their multiplicative, absorptive and relational capabilities, respectively. The needed improvements would amount to a business model evolutionary transformation and eventually bring about a paradigm overhaul in business. The transformation is worth staging over time to ensure that open innovation is developed across interconnected and partnered areas of strategic importance. This article develops an open innovation strategy (OIS) capabilities model, and employs examples from different industries to briefly discuss OIS’s potential to augment business value in a number of suggested areas for future research.

Keywords: close innovation, open innovation paradigm, open innovation strategy (OIS) paradigm, OIS capabilities model, multiplicative capability, absorptive capability, relational capability

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Authors: Alessio Varotto, Lorenzo Freschi, Umberto Pasqual Laverdura, Anastasia Moschovi, Davide Pumiglia, Iakovos Yakoumis, Marta Feroci, Maria Luisa Grilli

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Dry reforming of Methane (DRM) is considered one of the most valuable technologies for green-house gas valorization thanks to the fact that through this reaction, it is possible to obtain syngas, a mixture of H₂ and CO in an H₂/CO ratio suitable for utilization in the Fischer-Tropsch process of high value-added chemicals and fuels. Challenges of the DRM process are the reduction of costs due to the high temperature of the process and the high cost of precious metals of the catalyst, the metal particles sintering, and carbon deposition on the catalysts’ surface. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of the synthesis of catalysts using a leachate solution containing Pt coming directly from the recovery of spent diesel oxidation catalysts (DOCs) without further purification. An unusual perovskite support for DRM, the BaCe₁₋ₓ₋ᵧZrₓGdᵧO₃ (BCZG) perovskite, has been chosen as the catalyst support because of its high thermal stability and capability to produce oxygen vacancies, which suppress the carbon deposition and enhance the catalytic activity of the catalyst. BCZG perovskite has been synthesized by a sol-gel modified Pechini process and calcinated in air at 1100 °C. BCZG supports have been impregnated with a Pt-containing leachate solution of DOC, obtained by a mild hydrometallurgical recovery process, as reported elsewhere by some of the authors of this manuscript. For comparison reasons, a synthetic solution obtained by digesting commercial Pt-black powder in aqua regia was used for BCZG support impregnation. Pt nominal content was 2% in both BCZG-based catalysts formed by real and synthetic solutions. The structure and morphology of catalysts were characterized by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) was used to study the thermal stability of the catalyst’s samples. Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) analysis provided a high surface area of the catalysts. H₂-TPR (Temperature Programmed Reduction) analysis was used to study the consumption of hydrogen for reducibility, and it was associated with H₂-TPD characterization to study the dispersion of Pt on the surface of the support and calculate the number of active sites used by the precious metal. Dry reforming of methane (DRM) reaction, carried out in a fixed bed reactor, showed a high conversion efficiency of CO₂ and CH4. At 850°C, CO₂ and CH₄ conversion were close to 100% for the catalyst obtained with the aqua regia-based solution of commercial Pt-black, and ~70% (for CH₄) and ~80 % (for CO₂) in the case of real HCl-based leachate solution. H₂/CO ratios were ~0.9 and ~0.70 in the first and latter cases, respectively. As far as we know, this is the first pioneering work in which a BCGZ catalyst and a real Pt-containing leachate solution were successfully employed for DRM reaction.

Keywords: dry reforming of methane, perovskite, PGM, recycled Pt, syngas

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Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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Authors: B. Van Kessel, P. T. Kockelkorn, T. R. Speelman, T. C. Wierikx, C. Mai Van, T. A. Bogaard

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Saltwater intrusion is a common problem in estuaries around the world, as it could hinder the freshwater supply of coastal zones. This problem is likely to grow due to climate change and sea-level rise. The influence of these factors on the saltwater intrusion was investigated for the Cai River in the Khanh Hoa province in Vietnam. In addition, the Cai River has high seasonal fluctuations in discharge, leading to increased saltwater intrusion during the dry season. Sea level rise, river discharge changes, river mouth widening and a proposed saltwater intrusion prevention dam can have influences on the saltwater intrusion but have not been quantified for the Cai River estuary. This research used both an analytical and numerical model to investigate the effect of the aforementioned factors. The analytical model was based on a model proposed by Savenije and was calibrated using limited in situ data. The numerical model was a 3D hydrodynamic model made using the Delft3D4 software. The analytical model and numerical model agreed with in situ data, mostly for tidally average data. Both models indicated a roughly similar dependence on discharge, also agreeing that this parameter had the most severe influence on the modeled saltwater intrusion. Especially for discharges below 10 m/s3, the saltwater was predicted to reach further than 10 km. In the models, both sea-level rise and river widening mainly resulted in salinity increments up to 3 kg/m3 in the middle part of the river. The predicted sea-level rise in 2070 was simulated to lead to an increase of 0.5 km in saltwater intrusion length. Furthermore, the effect of the saltwater intrusion dam seemed significant in the model used, but only for the highest position of the gate.

Keywords: Cai River, hydraulic models, river discharge, saltwater intrusion, tidal barriers

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Authors: Omar Alzeley, Sergey Utev

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Minimizing a constrained multivariate function is the fundamental of Machine learning, and these algorithms are at the core of data mining and data visualization techniques. The decision function that maps input points to output points is based on the result of optimization. This optimization is the central of learning theory. One approach to complex systems where the dynamics of the system is inferred by a statistical analysis of the fluctuations in time of some associated observable is time series analysis. The purpose of this paper is a mathematical transition from the autoregressive model of classical time series to the matrix formalization of quantum theory. Firstly, we have proposed a quantum time series model (QTS). Although Hamiltonian technique becomes an established tool to detect a deterministic chaos, other approaches emerge. The quantum probabilistic technique is used to motivate the construction of our QTS model. The QTS model resembles the quantum dynamic model which was applied to financial data. Secondly, various statistical methods, including machine learning algorithms such as the Kalman filter algorithm, are applied to estimate and analyses the unknown parameters of the model. Finally, simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been used to support our investigations. The proposed model has been examined by using real and simulated data. We establish the relation between quantum statistical machine and quantum time series via random matrix theory. It is interesting to note that the primary focus of the application of QTS in the field of quantum chaos was to find a model that explain chaotic behaviour. Maybe this model will reveal another insight into quantum chaos.

Keywords: machine learning, simulation techniques, quantum probability, tensor product, time series

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Authors: Sungpil Ha, Ju Yong Kang, Sangbaek Park, Seung-Ju Lee, Soo-Won Chae

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The growing number of obese patients in aging societies has led to an increase in the number of patients with knee medial osteoarthritis (OA). Artificial joint insertion is the most common treatment for knee medial OA. Surgery is effective for patients with serious arthritic symptoms, but it is costly and dangerous. It is also inappropriate way to prevent a disease as an early stage. Therefore Non-operative treatments such as toe-in gait are proposed recently. Toe-in gait is one of non-surgical interventions, which restrain the progression of arthritis and relieves pain by reducing knee adduction moment (KAM) to facilitate lateral distribution of load on to knee medial cartilage. Numerous studies have measured KAM in various foot progression angle (FPA), and KAM data could be obtained by motion analysis. However, variations in stress at knee cartilage could not be directly observed or evaluated by these experiments of measuring KAM. Therefore, this study applied motion analysis to major gait points (1st peak, mid –stance, 2nd peak) with regard to FPA, and to evaluate the effects of FPA on the human lower extremity, the finite element (FE) method was employed. Three types of gait analysis (toe-in, toe-out, baseline gait) were performed with markers placed at the lower extremity. Ground reaction forces (GRF) were obtained by the force plates. The forces associated with the major muscles were computed using GRF and marker trajectory data. MRI data provided by the Visible Human Project were used to develop a human lower extremity FE model. FE analyses for three types of gait simulations were performed based on the calculated muscle force and GRF. We observed the maximum stress point during toe-in gait was lower than the other types, by comparing the results of FE analyses at the 1st peak across gait types. This is the same as the trend exhibited by KAM, measured through motion analysis in other papers. This indicates that the progression of knee medial OA could be suppressed by adopting toe-in gait. This study integrated motion analysis with FE analysis. One advantage of this method is that re-modeling is not required even with changes in posture. Therefore another type of gait simulation or various motions of lower extremity can be easily analyzed using this method.

Keywords: finite element analysis, gait analysis, human model, motion capture

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Authors: Lely A. Luengas, Pedro R. Vizcaya, Giovanni Sánchez

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In this paper, a methodology is presented to obtain the Static Alignment Model for any transtibial amputee person. The proposed methodology starts from experimental data collected on the Hospital Militar Central, Bogotá, Colombia. The effects of transtibial prosthesis malalignment on amputees were measured in terms of joint angles, center of pressure (COP) and weight distribution. Some statistical tools are used to obtain the model parameters. Mathematical predictive models of prosthetic alignment were created. The proposed models are validated in amputees and finding promising results for the prosthesis Static Alignment. Static alignment process is unique to each subject; nevertheless the proposed methodology can be used in each transtibial amputee.

Keywords: information theory, prediction model, prosthetic alignment, transtibial prosthesis

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Authors: Zhilin Wang, Zhihao Zheng, Linxin Liu

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This study proposes a low-code model-building approach that aims to simplify the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) models. With an intuitive way to drag and drop and connect components, users can easily build complex models and integrate multiple algorithms for training. After the training is completed, the system automatically generates a callable model service API. This method not only lowers the technical threshold of AI development and improves development efficiency but also enhances the flexibility of algorithm integration and simplifies the deployment process of models. The core strength of this method lies in its ease of use and efficiency. Users do not need to have a deep programming background and can complete the design and implementation of complex models with a simple drag-and-drop operation. This feature greatly expands the scope of AI technology, allowing more non-technical people to participate in the development of AI models. At the same time, the method performs well in algorithm integration, supporting many different types of algorithms to work together, which further improves the performance and applicability of the model. In the experimental part, we performed several performance tests on the method. The results show that compared with traditional model construction methods, this method can make more efficient use, save computing resources, and greatly shorten the model training time. In addition, the system-generated model service interface has been optimized for high availability and scalability, which can adapt to the needs of different application scenarios.

Keywords: low-code, model building, artificial intelligence, algorithm integration, model deployment

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Authors: Christopher Deekia Nwimae, Nigel Simms, Liyun Lao

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Erosion in pipe bends caused by particles is a major obstacle in the oil and gas fields and might cause the breakdown of production equipment. This work studied the effects imposed by flow velocity and impact of solid particles diameter in an elbow; erosion rate was verified with experimental data using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. Two-way coupled Euler-Lagrange and discrete phase model was employed to calculate the air/solid particle flow in an elbow. One erosion model and three-particle rebound models were used to predict the erosion rate on the 90° elbows. The generic erosion model was used in the CFD-based erosion model, and after comparing it with experimental data, results showed agreement with the CFD-based predictions as observed.

Keywords: erosion, prediction, elbow, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: Yoshimoto Kurihara, Tad Gonsalves

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Currently, in the field of object posture estimation, there is research on estimating the position and angle of an object by storing a 3D model of the object to be estimated in advance in a computer and matching it with the model. However, in this research, we have succeeded in creating a module that is much simpler, smaller in scale, and faster in operation. Our 6D pose estimation model consists of two different networks – a classification network and a regression network. From a single RGB image, the trained model estimates the class of the object in the image, the coordinates of the object, and its rotation angle in 3D space. In addition, we compared the estimation accuracy of each camera position, i.e., the angle from which the object was captured. The highest accuracy was recorded when the camera position was 75°, the accuracy of the classification was about 87.3%, and that of regression was about 98.9%.

Keywords: 6D posture estimation, image recognition, deep learning, AlexNet

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Authors: Mohammad Y. Badiee, Saeed Golestani, Mir Saman Pishvaee

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In recent years consumers and governments have been pushing companies to design their activities in such a way as to reduce negative environmental impacts by producing renewable product or threat free disposal policy more and more. It is therefore important to focus more accurate to the optimization of various aspect of total supply chain. Modeling a supply chain can be a challenging process due to the fact that there are a large number of factors that need to be considered in the model. The use of multi-objective optimization can lead to overcome those problems since more information is used when designing the model. Uncertainty is inevitable in real world. Considering uncertainty on parameters in addition to use multi-objectives are ways to give more flexibility to the decision making process since the process can take into account much more constraints and requirements. In this paper we demonstrate a stochastic scenario based robust model to cope with uncertainty in a closed-loop multi-objective supply chain. By applying the proposed model in a real world case, the power of proposed model in handling data uncertainty is shown.

Keywords: supply chain management, closed-loop supply chain, multi-objective optimization, goal programming, uncertainty, robust optimization

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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The traditional bio-economic method for fisheries modeling uses some estimate of the growth parameters and the system carrying capacity from a biological model for the population dynamics (usually a logistic population growth model) which is then analyzed as a traditional production function. The stock dynamic is transformed into a revenue function and then compared with the extraction costs to estimate the maximum economic yield. In this paper, the logistic population growth model for the population is combined with a forecast of the abundance and location of the stock by using a generalized additive model approach. The paper focuses on the Chilean hake population. This method allows for the incorporation of climatic variables and the interaction with other marine species, which in turn will increase the reliability of the estimates and generate better extraction paths for different conservation objectives, such as the maximum biological yield or the maximum economic yield.

Keywords: bio-economic, fisheries, GAM, production

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: M. E. Joret, F. Germeys, P. Van de Craen

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Background: Previous studies have shown that ‘full’ bilingualism seems to enhance the executive functions in children, young adults and elderly people. Executive functions refer to a complex cognitive system responsible for self-controlled and planned behavior and seem to predict academic achievement. The present study aimed at investigating whether similar effects could be found in children learning their second language at school in immersion education programs. Methods: In this study, 44 children involved in immersion education for 4 to 5 years were compared to 48 children in traditional schools. All children were between 9 and 11 years old. To assess executive functions, the Simon task was used, a neuropsychological measure assessing executive functions with reaction times and accuracy on congruent and incongruent trials. To control for background measures, all children underwent the Raven’s coloured progressive matrices, to measure non-verbal intelligence and the Echelle de Vocabulaire en Images Peabody (EVIP), assessing verbal intelligence. In addition, a questionnaire was given to the parents to control for other confounding variables, such as socio-economic status (SES), home language, developmental disorders, etc. Results: There were no differences between groups concerning non-verbal intelligence and verbal intelligence. Furthermore, the immersion learners showed overall faster reaction times on both congruent and incongruent trials compared to the traditional learners, but only after 5 years of training, not before. Conclusion: These results show that the cognitive benefits found in ‘full’ bilinguals also appear in children involved in immersion education, but only after a sufficient exposure to the second language. Our results suggest that the amount of second language training needs to be sufficient before these cognitive effects may emerge.

Keywords: bilingualism, executive functions, immersion education, Simon task

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Prashant Pandey

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In the present article, an effective Laguerre collocation method is used to obtain the approximate solution of a system of coupled fractional-order non-linear reaction-advection-diffusion equation with prescribed initial and boundary conditions. In the proposed scheme, Laguerre polynomials are used together with an operational matrix and collocation method to obtain approximate solutions of the coupled system, so that our proposed model is converted into a system of algebraic equations which can be solved employing the Newton method. The solution profiles of the coupled system are presented graphically for different particular cases. The salient feature of the present article is finding the stability analysis of the proposed method and also the demonstration of the lower variation of solute concentrations with respect to the column length in the fractional-order system compared to the integer-order system. To show the higher efficiency, reliability, and accuracy of the proposed scheme, a comparison between the numerical results of Burger’s coupled system and its existing analytical result is reported. There are high compatibility and consistency between the approximate solution and its exact solution to a higher order of accuracy. The exhibition of error analysis for each case through tables and graphs confirms the super-linearly convergence rate of the proposed method.

Keywords: fractional coupled PDE, stability and convergence analysis, diffusion equation, Laguerre polynomials, spectral method

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Authors: Jiyaul Haque, Vandana Srivastava, M. A. Quraishi

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The amino acids based corrosion inhibitors 2-(3-(carboxymethyl)-1H-imidazol-3-ium-1-yl) acetate (Z-1),2-(3-(1-carboxyethyl)-1H-imidazol-3-ium-1-yl) propanoate (Z-2) and 2-(3-(1-carboxy-2-phenylethyl)-1H-imidazol-3-ium-1-yl)-3- phenylpropanoate (Z-3) were synthesized by the reaction of amino acids, glyoxal and formaldehyde, and characterized by the FTIR and NMR spectroscopy. The corrosion inhibition performance of synthesized inhibitors was studied by electrochemical (EIS and PDP), surface and DFT methods. The results show, the studied Z-1, Z-2 and Z-3 are effective inhibitors, showed the maximum inhibition efficiency of 88.52 %, 89.48 and 96.08% at concentration 200ppm, respectively. The results of potentiodynamic polarization (PDP) study showed that Z-1 act as a cathodic inhibitor, while Z-2 and Z-3 act as mixed type inhibitors. The results of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) studies showed that zwitterions inhibit the corrosion through adsorption mechanism. The adsorption of synthesized zwitterions on the mild steel surface was followed the Langmuir adsorption isotherm. The formation of zwitterions film on mild steel surface was confirmed by the scanning electron microscope (SEM) and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). The quantum chemical parameters were used to study the reactivity of inhibitors and supported the experimental results. An inhibitor adsorption model is proposed.

Keywords: electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, green corrosion inhibitors, mild steel, SEM, quantum chemical calculation, zwitterions

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Authors: S. Sonkham, U. Pinsopon, W. Chatlatanagulchai

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This paper presents a method of sliding mode control (SMC) designing and developing for the servo system in a dual-stage actuator (DSA) hard disk drive. Mathematical modelling of hard disk drive actuators is obtained, extracted from measuring frequency response of the voice-coil motor (VCM) and PZT micro-actuator separately. Matlab software tools are used for mathematical model estimation and also for controller design and simulation. A model-reference approach for tracking requirement is selected as a proposed technique. The simulation results show that performance of a model-reference SMC controller design in DSA servo control can be satisfied in the tracking error, as well as keeping the positioning of the head within the boundary of +/-5% of track width under the presence of internal and external disturbance. The overall results of model-reference SMC design in DSA are met per requirement specifications and significant reduction in %off track is found when compared to the single-state actuator (SSA).

Keywords: hard disk drive, dual-stage actuator, track following, hdd servo control, sliding mode control, model-reference, tracking control

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Authors: A. Banerjee, C. Grazon, B. Nadal, T. Pons, Y. Krishnan, B. Dubertret

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Quantum Dots (QDs) have emerged as novel fluorescent probes for biomedical applications. The photophysical properties of QDs such as broad absorption, narrow emission spectrum, reduced blinking, and enhanced photostability make them advantageous over organic fluorophores. However, for some biological applications, QDs need to be first targeted to specific intracellular locations. It parallel, base pairing properties and biocompatibility of DNA has been extensively used for biosensing, targetting and intracellular delivery of numerous bioactive agents. The combination of the photophysical properties of QDs and targettability of DNA has yielded fluorescent, stable and targetable nanosensors. QD-DNA conjugates have used in drug delivery, siRNA, intracellular pH sensing and several other applications; and continue to be an active area of research. In this project, a novel method to synthesise QD-DNA conjugates and their applications in bioimaging are investigated. QDs are first solubilized in water using a thiol based amphiphilic co-polymer and, then conjugated to amine functionalized DNA using a heterobifunctional linker. The conjugates are purified by size exclusion chromatography and characterized by UV-Vis absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy, electrophoresis and microscopy. Parameters that influence the conjugation yield such as reducing agents, the excess of salt and pH have been investigated in detail. In optimized reaction conditions, up to 12 single-stranded DNA (15 mer length) can be conjugated per QD. After conjugation, the QDs retain their colloidal stability and high quantum yield; and the DNA is available for hybridization. The reaction has also been successfully tested on QDs emitting different colors and on Gold nanoparticles and therefore highly generalizable. After extensive characterization and robust synthesis of QD-DNA conjugates in vitro, the physical properties of these conjugates in cellular milieu are being invistigated. Modification of QD surface with DNA appears to remarkably alter the fate of QD inside cells and can have potential implications in therapeutic applications.

Keywords: bioimaging, cellular targeting, drug delivery, photostability

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Authors: Shahrokh Barati

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In this paper, we introduced AIDS disease at first, then proposed dynamic model illustrate its progress, after expression of a short history of nonlinear modeling by polynomial phasing systems, we considered the stability conditions of the systems, which contained a huge amount of researches in order to modeling and control of AIDS in dynamic nonlinear form, in this approach using a frame work of control any polynomial phasing modeling system which have been generalized by part of phasing model of T-S, in order to control the system in better way, the stability conditions were achieved based on polynomial functions, then we focused to design the appropriate controller, firstly we considered the equilibrium points of system and their conditions and in order to examine changes in the parameters, we presented polynomial phase model that was the generalized approach rather than previous Takagi Sugeno models, then with using case we evaluated the equations in both open loop and close loop and with helping the controlling feedback, the close loop equations of system were calculated, to simulate nonlinear model of AIDS disease, we used polynomial phasing controller output that was capable to make the parameters of a nonlinear system to follow a sustainable reference model properly.

Keywords: polynomial fuzzy, AIDS, nonlinear AIDS model, fuzzy control systems

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Authors: Guru Prakash, Revanth Dugalam

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A road’s condition often deteriorates due to harsh loading such as overload due to trucks, and severe environmental conditions such as heavy rain, snow load, and cyclic loading. In absence of proper maintenance planning, this results in potholes, wide cracks, bumps, and increased roughness of roads. In this paper, a data-driven model will be developed to detect these damages using vibration and image signals. The key idea of the proposed methodology is that the road anomaly manifests in these signals, which can be detected by training a machine learning algorithm. The use of various machine learning techniques such as the support vector machine and Radom Forest method will be investigated. The proposed model will first be trained and tested with artificially simulated data, and the model architecture will be finalized by comparing the accuracies of various models. Once a model is fixed, the field study will be performed, and data will be collected. The field data will be used to validate the proposed model and to predict the future road’s health condition. The proposed will help to automate the road condition monitoring process, repair cost estimation, and maintenance planning process.

Keywords: SVM, data-driven, road health monitoring, pot-hole

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Authors: Babek Erdebilli

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The aim of this study is to develop and describe a new methodology for the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem using IFE (Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La Realite (ELECTRE) model. The proposed models enable Decision-Makers (DMs) on the assessment and use Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers (IFN). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate and clarify the proposed analysis procedure. Also, an empirical experiment is conducted to validation the effectiveness.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision-making, IFE, DM’s, fuzzy electre model

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Authors: Zeyu Zhou, Ziyu Zhao, Xiaochen Yang, Ling AI, Heng Zhai, Stuart Holmes

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As a promising sustainable alternative to traditional fossil fuels, fuel cell technology is highly favoured due to its enhanced working efficiency and reduced emissions. In the context of high-temperature fuel cells (operating above 100 °C), the most commonly used proton exchange membrane (PEM) is the Polybenzimidazole (PBI) doped phosphoric acid (PA) membrane. Grafting is a promising strategy to advance PA-doped PBI PEM technology. The existing grafting modification on PBI PEMs mainly focuses on grafting phosphate-containing or alkaline groups onto the PBI molecular chains. However, quaternary ammonium-based grafting approaches face a common challenge. To initiate the N-alkylation reaction, deacidifying agents such as NaH, NaOH, KOH, K2CO3, etc., can lead to ionic crosslinking between the quaternary ammonium group and PBI. Polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) is another widely used polymer, the N-heterocycle groups within PVP endow it with a significant ability to absorb PA. Recently, PVP has attracted substantial attention in the field of fuel cells due to its reduced environmental impact and impressive fuel cell performance. However, due to the the poor compatibility of PVP in PBI, few research apply PVP in PA-doped PBI PEMs. This work introduces an innovative strategy to graft PVP onto PBI to form a network-like polymer. Due to the absence of quaternary ammonium groups, PVP does not pose issues related to crosslinking with PBI. Moreover, the nitrogen-containing functional groups on PVP provide PBI with a robust phosphoric acid retention ability. The nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) hydrogen spectrum analysis results indicate the successful completion of the grafting reaction where N-alkylation reactions happen on both sides of the grafting agent 1,4-bis(chloromethyl)benzene. On one side, the reaction takes place with the hydrogen atoms on the imidazole groups of PBI, while on the other side, it reacts with the terminal amino group of PVP. The XPS results provide additional evidence from the perspective of the element. On synthesized PBI-g-PVP surfaces, there is an absence of chlorine (chlorine in grafting agent 1,4-bis(chloromethyl)benzene is substituted) element but a presence of sulfur element (sulfur element in terminal amino PVP appears in PBI), which demonstrates the occurrence of the grafting reaction and PVP is successfully grafted onto PBI. Prepare these modified membranes into MEA. It was found that during the fuel cell operation, all the grafted membranes showed substantial improvement in maximum current density and peak power density compared to unmodified one. For PBI-g-PVP 30, with a grafting degree of 22.4%, the peak power density reaches 1312 mW cm⁻², marking a 59.6% enhancement compared to the pristine PBI membrane. The improvement is caused by the improved PA binding ability of the membrane after grafting. The AST test result shows that the grafting membranes have better long-term durability and performance than unmodified membranes attributed to the presence of added PA binding sites, which can effectively prevent the PA leaching caused by proton migration. In conclusion, the test results indicate that grafting PVP onto PBI is a promising strategy which can effectively improve the fuel cell performance.

Keywords: fuel cell, grafting modification, PA doping ability, PVP

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Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 494

Authors: Andrés I. Ávila, Patricia Aros, César San Martín, Elizabeth Kehr, Yovana Leal

Abstract:

Planning models for fresh products is a very useful tool for improving the net profits. To get an efficient supply chain model, several functions should be considered to get a complete simulation of several operational units. We consider a linear programming model to help farmers to decide if it is convenient to choose what area should be planted for three kinds of export fruits considering their future investment. We consider area, investment, water, productivity minimal unit, and harvest restrictions to develop a monthly based model to compute the average income in five years. Also, conditions on the field as area, water availability, and initial investment are required. Using the Chilean costs and dollar-peso exchange rate, we can simulate several scenarios to understand the possible risks associated to this market. Also, this tool help to support decisions for government and individual farmers.

Keywords: mixed integer problem, fresh fruit production, support decision model, agricultural and biosystems engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 442

Authors: Sujit K. Basak

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The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of literature review software on researchers. The aim of this study was achieved by analyzing models in terms of perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and acceptance level. Collected data was analyzed using WarpPLS 4.0 software. This study used two theoretical frameworks namely Technology Acceptance Model and the Training Needs Assessment Model. The study was experimental and was conducted at a public university in South Africa. The results of the study showed that acceptance level has a high impact on research workload and productivity followed by perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use.

Keywords: technology acceptance model, training needs assessment model, literature review software, research productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 509

Authors: Kidane Workelul, Yohans Tekle, Guesh Negash, Haftay Abraha, Nigus Abebe Shumuye, Yisehak Tsegaye Redda

Abstract:

Bovine papillomatosis (wart) is one of the economically important bovine skin diseases worldwide, caused by a group of viruses named papillomaviruses (PVs). However, it has often been misdiagnosed as other skin diseases and remained untreated. In order to determine the status of the diseases, twenty-two farms were visited, and fourteen infected cattle with cutaneous papillomatosis were identified from a total of 235. Papilloma biopsies were taken for molecular and histopathological characterization, the therapeutic trial of an autogenous vaccine was evaluated on infected animals. The overall status of bovine papillomatosis in this study was calculated as 5.96% (14/235). The disease was found to be statistically significant in the age groups less than two years (X² = 26.69, P = 0.0001). The more prominent histologically characterized lesions in the sampled tissue were identified as squamous papilloma and fibro-papilloma. The Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based identification revealed that all the clinically and histo-pathologically characterized papillomatosis cases were found to be infected with Bovine Papilloma Virus1(BPV1), indicating that BPV1 was the most common and sole causative agent of the diseases in the study area. In immunizing active bovine papillomatosis, an autogenous vaccine therapeutic trial demonstrated excellent results, with practically full recovery and no recurrence of the infection. Hence, it is concluded that bovine papillomatosis is an economically important disease of young age group cattle as well as a treatable disease. So, the production of marketable autogenous vaccines against bovine papillomatosis should be started and given at an early stage.

Keywords: autogenous vaccine, bovine papillomatosis, bovine papilloma virus1 clinical-pathology, polymerase chine reaction, wart

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Yin-Yee Leong, Jack C. Yue, Hsin-Chung Wang

Abstract:

Human longevity has been experiencing its largest increase since the end of World War II, and modeling the mortality rates is therefore often the focus of many studies. Among all mortality models, the Lee–Carter model is the most popular approach since it is fairly easy to use and has good accuracy in predicting mortality rates (e.g., for Japan and the USA). However, empirical studies from several countries have shown that the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant in time. Many modifications of the Lee–Carter model have been proposed to deal with this problem, including adding an extra cohort effect and adding another period effect. In this study, we propose a spatial modification and use clusters to explain why the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant. In spatial analysis, clusters are areas with unusually high or low mortality rates than their neighbors, where the “location” of mortality rates is measured by age and time, that is, a 2-dimensional coordinate. We use a popular cluster detection method—Spatial scan statistics, a local statistical test based on the likelihood ratio test to evaluate where there are locations with mortality rates that cannot be described well by the Lee–Carter model. We first use computer simulation to demonstrate that the cluster effect is a possible source causing the problem of the age parameters not being constant. Next, we show that adding the cluster effect can solve the non-constant problem. We also apply the proposed approach to mortality data from Japan, France, the USA, and Taiwan. The empirical results show that our approach has better-fitting results and smaller mean absolute percentage errors than the Lee–Carter model.

Keywords: mortality improvement, Lee–Carter model, spatial statistics, cluster detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Munazza A. Mirza, Khawar Khurshid

Abstract:

Individuals are generally associated with different learning styles, which have been explored extensively in recent past. The learning styles refer to the potential of an individual by which s/he can easily comprehend and retain information. Among various learning style models, VARK is the most accepted model which categorizes the learners with respect to their sensory characteristics. Based on the number of preferred learning modes, the learners can be categorized as uni-modal, bi-modal, tri-modal, or quad/multi-modal. Although there is a prevalent belief in the learning styles, however, the model is not being frequently and effectively utilized in the higher education. This research describes the identification model to validate teacher’s didactic practice and student’s performance linkage with the learning styles. The identification model is recommended to check the effective application and evaluation of the various learning styles. The proposed model is a guideline to effectively implement learning styles inventory in order to ensure that it will validate performance linkage with learning styles. If performance is linked with learning styles, this may help eradicate the distrust on learning style theory. For this purpose, a comprehensive study was conducted to compare and understand how VARK inventory model is being used to identify learning preferences and their correlation with learner’s performance. A comparative analysis of the findings of these studies is presented to understand the learning styles of tertiary students in various disciplines. It is concluded with confidence that the learning styles of students cannot be associated with any specific discipline. Furthermore, there is not enough empirical proof to link performance with learning styles.

Keywords: learning style, VARK, sensory preferences, identification model, didactic practices

Procedia PDF Downloads 284