Search results for: linear regression estimation

Authors: Lim Sanny, Felix Christian

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The use of heavy equipment in Indonesia is always increasing. Cost reduction in procurement of spare parts is the aim of the company. The spare parts in this research are focused in the kind of filters. On the early step, the choosing of priority filter will be studied further by using the ABC analysis. To find out future demand of the filter, this research is using demand forecast by utilizing the QM software for windows. And to find out the best method of inventory control for each kind of filter is by comparing the total cost of Economic Order Quantity and Quick response inventory method. For the three kind of filters which are Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123, Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, and Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054, the best forecasting method is Linear regression. The best method for inventory control of Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123 and Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, is Quick Response Inventory, while the best method for Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054 is Economic Order Quantity.

Keywords: strategy, inventory, ABC analysis, forecasting, economic order quantity, quick response inventory

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Ataur Rahman

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Due to climate change, future rainfall will change at many locations on earth; however, the spatial and temporal patterns of this change are not easy to predict. One approach of predicting such future changes is to examine the trends in the historical rainfall data at a given region and use the identified trends to make future prediction. For this, a statistical trend test is commonly applied to the historical data. This paper examines the trends of daily extreme rainfall events from 30 rain gauges located in the State of Qatar. Rainfall data covering from 1962 to 2011 were used in the analysis. A combination of four non-parametric and parametric tests was applied to identify trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. These tests are Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho (SR), Linear Regression (LR) and CUSUM tests. These tests showed both positive and negative trends throughout the country. Only eight stations showed positive (upward) trend, which were however not statistically significant. In contrast, significant negative (downward) trends were found at the 5% and 10% levels of significance in six stations. The MK, SR and LR tests exhibited very similar results. This finding has important implications in the derivation/upgrade of design rainfall for Qatar, which will affect design and operation of future urban drainage infrastructure in Qatar.

Keywords: trends, extreme rainfall, daily rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, climate change, Qatar

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Authors: Sergey Kuznetsov, Yuri Urman

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We present an approach to investigate non-linear dynamical effects occurring in the noncontact superconducting and diamagnetic suspensions, when levitated body has finite size. This approach is based on the calculation of interaction energy between spherical finite size superconducting or diamagnetic body with external magnetic field. Effects of small deviations from spherical shape may be also taken into account by introducing small corrections to the energy. This model allows investigating dynamical effects important for practical applications, such as nonlinear resonances, change of vibration plane, coupling of rotational and translational motions etc. We also show how the geometry of suspension affects various dynamical effects and how an inverse problem may be formulated to enforce or diminish various dynamical effects.

Keywords: levitation, non-linear dynamics, superconducting, diamagnetic stability

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Authors: Ankit Kargeti, Ravikant Shrivastav, Tabish Rasheed

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The electronic structure calculation for the nanoclusters of AsSiTeB/SiAsBTe quaternary semiconductor alloy belonging to the III-V Group elements was performed. Motivation for this research work was to look for accurate electronic and geometric data of small nanoclusters of AsSiTeB/SiAsBTe in the gaseous form. The two clusters, one in the linear form and the other in the bent form, were studied under the framework of Density Functional Theory (DFT) using the B3LYP functional and LANL2DZ basis set with the software packaged Gaussian 16. We have discussed the Optimized Energy, Frontier Orbital Energy Gap in terms of HOMO-LUMO, Dipole Moment, Ionization Potential, Electron Affinity, Binding Energy, Embedding Energy, Density of States (DoS) spectrum for both structures. The important findings of the predicted nanostructures are that these structures have wide band gap energy, where linear structure has band gap energy (Eg) value is 2.375 eV and bent structure (Eg) value is 2.778 eV. Therefore, these structures can be utilized as wide band gap semiconductors. These structures have high electron affinity value of 4.259 eV for the linear structure and electron affinity value of 3.387 eV for the bent structure form. It shows that electron acceptor capability is high for both forms. The widely known application of these compounds is in the light emitting diodes due to their wide band gap nature.

Keywords: density functional theory, DFT, density functional theory, nanostructures, HOMO-LUMO, density of states

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Authors: Saeed Javaherzadeh, Babak Dindar Safa

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Structure, given its ductility, can depreciate significant amount of seismic energy in the form of hysteresis behavior; the amount of energy depreciation depends on the structure ductility rate. So in seismic guidelines such as ASCE7-10 code, to reduce the number of design forces and using the seismic energy dissipation capacity of structure, when entering non-linear behavior range of the materials, the response modification factor is used. Various parameters such as ductility modification factor, overstrength factor and reliability factor, are effective in determining the value of this factor. Also, gradually, energy dissipation systems, especially added dampers, have become an inseparable part of the seismic design. In this paper, in addition to reviewing of previous studies, using the response modification factor caused by using more added viscoelastic dampers, a new design method has introduced for steel moment-frame with added dampers installed. To do this, in addition to using bilinear behavior models and quick ways such as using the equivalent lateral force method and capacity spectrum method for the proposed design methodology, the results has been controlled with non-linear time history analysis for a number of structural. The analysis is done by Opensees Software.

Keywords: added viscoelastic damper, design base shear, response modification factor, non-linear time history

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Authors: Okoh Charity N.

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This study investigated the predictive power of preschoolers’ involvement in indoor and outdoor learning activities on their social learning skills in Niger state, Nigeria. Two research questions and two null hypotheses guided the study. Correlational research design was employed in the study. The population of the study consisted of 8,568 Nursery III preschoolers across the 549 preschools in the five Local Education Authorities in Niger State. A sample of 390 preschoolers drawn through multistage sampling procedure. Two instruments; Preschoolers’ Learning Activities Rating Scale (PLARS) and Preschoolers’ Social Learning Skills Rating Scale (PSLSRS) developed by the researcher were used for data collection. The reliability coefficients obtained for the PLARS and PSLSRS were 0.83 and 0.82, respectively. Data collected were analyzed using simple linear regression. Results showed that 37% of preschoolers’ social learning skills are predicted by their involvement in indoor learning activities, which is statistically significant (p < 0.05). It also shows that 11% of preschoolers’ social learning skills are predicted by their involvement in outdoor learning activities, which is statistically significant (p < 0.05). Therefore, it was recommended among others, that government and school administrators should employ qualified teachers who will stand as role models for preschoolers’ social skills development and provide indoor and outdoor activities and materials for preschoolers in schools.

Keywords: preschooler, social learning, indoor activities, outdoor activities

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Authors: Tae An Kim, Hyo Lim Kang, Hye Won Han, Seung Ho Han

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The drive shaft of passenger vehicle has its own function such as transmitting the engine torque from the gearbox and differential gears to the wheels. It must also compensate for all variations in angle or length resulting from manoeuvring and deflection for perfect synchronization between joints. Torsional fatigue failures occur frequently at the connection parts of the spline joints in the end of the drive shaft. In this study, the fatigue life of a drive shaft of passenger vehicle was estimated by using the finite element analysis. A commercial software of n-Code was applied under twisting load conditions, i.e. 0~134kgf•m and 0~188kgf•m, in which the shear strain range-fatigue life relationship considering Signed Shear method, Smith-Watson-Topper equation, Neuber-Hoffman Seeger method, size sensitivity factor and surface roughness effect was taken into account. The estimated fatigue life was verified by a twisting load test of the real drive shaft in a test rig. (Human Resource Training Project for Industry Matched R & D, KIAT, N036200004).

Keywords: drive shaft, fatigue life estimation, passenger vehicle, shear strain range-fatigue life relationship, torsional fatigue failure

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model

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Authors: Ya-Hui Lee, Ching-Yi Lu, Hui-Chuan Wei

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The purpose of this research was to explore the relation between proactive coping and well-being of middle-aged adults. We conducted survey research that with t-test, one way ANOVA, Pearson correlation and stepwise multiple regression to analyze. This research drew on a sample of 395 participants from the senior learning centers of Taiwan. The results provided the following findings: 1.The participants from different residence areas associated significant difference with proactive coping, but not with well-being. 2. The participants’ perceived of financial level associated significant difference with both proactive coping and well-being. 3. There was significant difference between participants’ income and well-being. 4. The proactive coping was positively correlated with well-being. 5. From stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that two dimensions of proactive coping had positive predictability. Finally, these results of this study can be provided as references for designing older adult educational programs in Taiwan.

Keywords: middle-age and older adults, learners, proactive coping, well-being

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Authors: Azam Mohammadbagheri, Bahram Fathi

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DEA has become a very popular method of performance measure, but it still suffers from some shortcomings. One of these shortcomings is the issue of having multiple optimal solutions to weights for efficient DMUs. The cross efficiency evaluation as an extension of DEA is proposed to avoid this problem. Lam (2010) is also proposed a mixed-integer linear programming formulation based on linear discriminate analysis and super efficiency method (MILP model) to avoid having multiple optimal solutions to weights. In this study, we modified MILP model to determine more suitable weight sets and also evaluate the energy efficiency of MENA countries as an application of the proposed model.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, discriminate analysis, cross efficiency, MILP model

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Authors: Mohammad Karimizadehardakani, Hooman Minoonejad, Reza Rajabi, Ali Sharifnejad

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Background: Ankle sprain is one of the most important risk factor of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Also, functional ankle instability (FAI) population has alterations in lower extremity sagittal plane biomechanics during landing task. We want to examine whether biomechanical alterations demonstrated by FAI patients are associated with the mechanism of ACL injury during high risk and sport related tasks. Methods: Sixteen basketball player with FAI and 16 non-injured control performed a single-leg cross drop landing. Knee sagittal and frontal (ATSF) was calculated. Independent t-tests, multiple linear regression, and Pearson correlation were used for analysis data. Result: Subject with FAI showed more peak ATFS, posterior ground reaction force (GRF) and less knee flexion, compared to the controls (P= 0.001, P= 0.004, P= 0.011). Knee flexion (r= −0.824, P = 0.011) and posterior GRF (r= 0.901, P = .001) were correlated with ATSF; Posterior GRF was factor that most explained the variance in ATSF (R2= 0.645; P = .001) in the FAI group. Conclusions: Result of our study showed there is a potential biomechanical relationship between the presence of FAI and risk factors associated with ACL injury mechanism.

Keywords: functional ankle instability, anterior cruciate ligament, biomechanics, risk factor

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Authors: M. Pomianek, M. Piszczek, M. Maciejewski

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The binocular eye tracking technology is increasingly being used in industry, entertainment and marketing analysis. In the case of virtual reality, eye tracking systems are already the basis for user interaction with the environment. In such systems, the high accuracy of determining the user's eye fixation point is very important due to the specificity of the virtual reality head-mounted display (HMD). Often, however, there are unknown errors occurring in the used eye tracking technology, as well as those resulting from the positioning of the devices in relation to the user's eyes. However, can the virtual environment itself influence estimation errors? The paper presents mathematical analyses and empirical studies of the determination of the fixation point and errors resulting from the change in the size of the pupil in response to the intensity of the displayed scene. The article contains both static laboratory tests as well as on the real user. Based on the research results, optimization solutions were proposed that would reduce the errors of gaze estimation errors. Studies show that errors in estimating the fixation point of vision can be minimized both by improving the pupil positioning algorithm in the video image and by using more precise methods to calibrate the eye tracking system in three-dimensional space.

Keywords: eye tracking, fixation point, pupil size, virtual reality

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Authors: Majid Khalili, Hamed Tayebi

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This paper considers a stochastic flexible job-shop scheduling (SFJSS) problem in the presence of production disruptions, and reactive scheduling is implemented in order to find the optimal solution under uncertainty. In this problem, there are two main disruptions including machine failure which influences operation time, and modification or cancellation of the order delivery date during production. In order to decrease the negative effects of these difficulties, two derived strategies from reactive scheduling are used; the first one is relevant to being able to allocate multiple machine to each job, and the other one is related to being able to select the best alternative process from other job while some disruptions would be created in the processes of a job. For this purpose, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model is proposed.

Keywords: flexible job-shop scheduling, reactive scheduling, stochastic environment, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: F. Ahwide, Y. Aldali

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This article presents a current and future energy situation in Libya. The electric power efficiency and operating hours in power plants are evaluated from 2005 to 2010. Carbon dioxide emissions in most of power plants are estimated. In 2005, the efficiency of steam power plants achieved a range of 20% to 28%. While, the gas turbine power plants efficiency ranged between 9% and 25%, this can be considered as low efficiency. However, the efficiency improvement has clearly observed in some power plants from 2008 to 2010, especially in the power plant of North Benghazi and west Tripoli. In fact, these power plants have modified to combine cycle. The efficiency of North Benghazi power plant has increased from 25% to 46.6%, while in Tripoli it is increased from 22% to 34%. On the other hand, the efficiency improvement is not observed in the gas turbine power plants. When compared to the quantity of fuel used, the carbon dioxide emissions resulting from electricity generation plants were very high. Finally, an estimation of the energy demand has been done to the maximum load and the annual load factor (i.e., the ratio between the output power and installed power).

Keywords: power plant, efficiency improvement, carbon dioxide emissions, energy situation in Libya

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Authors: Jianqin Qu

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This paper proposes a rigid point set matching algorithm in arbitrary dimensions based on the idea of symmetric covariant function. A group of functions of the points in the set are formulated using rigid invariants. Each of these functions computes a pair of correspondence from the given point set. Then the computed correspondences are used to recover the unknown rigid transform parameters. Each computed point can be geometrically interpreted as the weighted mean center of the point set. The algorithm is compact, fast, and dimension free without any optimization process. It either computes the desired transform for noiseless data in linear time, or fails quickly in exceptional cases. Experimental results for synthetic data and 2D/3D real data are provided, which demonstrate potential applications of the algorithm to a wide range of problems.

Keywords: covariant point, point matching, dimension free, rigid registration

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Authors: Sachin Jain, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour, Antonio P. Sanfilippo

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The future of solar energy in Qatar is evolving steadily. Hence, high-quality spatial solar radiation data is of the uttermost requirement for any planning and commissioning of solar technology. Generally, two types of solar radiation data are available: satellite data and ground observations. Satellite solar radiation data is developed by the physical and statistical model. Ground data is collected by solar radiation measurement stations. The ground data is of high quality. However, they are limited to distributed point locations with the high cost of installation and maintenance for the ground stations. On the other hand, satellite solar radiation data is continuous and available throughout geographical locations, but they are relatively less accurate than ground data. To utilize the advantage of both data, a product has been developed here which provides spatial continuity and higher accuracy than any of the data alone. The popular satellite databases: National Solar radiation Data Base, NSRDB (PSM V3 model, spatial resolution: 4 km) is chosen here for merging with ground-measured solar radiation measurement in Qatar. The spatial distribution of ground solar radiation measurement stations is comprehensive in Qatar, with a network of 13 ground stations. The monthly average of the daily total Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) component from ground and satellite data is used for error analysis. The normalized root means square error (NRMSE) values of 3.31%, 6.53%, and 6.63% for October, November, and December 2019 were observed respectively when comparing in-situ and NSRDB data. The method is based on the Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction model available in ArcGIS, ESRI. The workflow of the algorithm is based on the combination of regression and kriging methods. A regression model (OLS, ordinary least square) is fitted between the ground and NSBRD data points. A semi-variogram is fitted into the experimental semi-variogram obtained from the residuals. The kriging residuals obtained after fitting the semi-variogram model were added to NSRBD data predicted values obtained from the regression model to obtain the final predicted values. The NRMSE values obtained after merging are respectively 1.84%, 1.28%, and 1.81% for October, November, and December 2019. One more explanatory variable, that is the ground elevation, has been incorporated in the regression and kriging methods to reduce the error and to provide higher spatial resolution (30 m). The final GHI maps have been created after merging, and NRMSE values of 1.24%, 1.28%, and 1.28% have been observed for October, November, and December 2019, respectively. The proposed merging method has proven as a highly accurate method. An additional method is also proposed here to generate calibrated maps by using regression and kriging model and further to use the calibrated model to generate solar radiation maps from the explanatory variable only when not enough historical ground data is available for long-term analysis. The NRMSE values obtained after the comparison of the calibrated maps with ground data are 5.60% and 5.31% for November and December 2019 month respectively.

Keywords: global horizontal irradiation, GIS, empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction, NSRDB

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Authors: Odai Ibrahim Mohammed Al Balasmeh, Tapas Karmaker, Richa Babbar

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In this study, the reservoir capacity and sediment deposition were estimated using remote sensing data. The satellite images were synchronized with water level and storage capacity to find out the change in sediment deposition due to soil erosion and transport by streamflow. The water bodies spread area was estimated using vegetation indices, e.g., normalize differences vegetation index (NDVI) and normalize differences water index (NDWI). The 3D reservoir bathymetry was modeled by integrated water level, storage capacity, and area. From the models of different time span, the change in reservoir storage capacity was estimated. Another reservoir with known water level, storage capacity, area, and sediment deposition was used to validate the estimation technique. The t-test was used to assess the results between observed and estimated reservoir capacity and sediment deposition.

Keywords: satellite data, normalize differences vegetation index, NDVI, normalize differences water index, NDWI, reservoir capacity, sedimentation, t-test hypothesis

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Authors: G. Venkata Rao, P. Kalpana, R. Srinivasa Rao

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Adequate and reliable estimates of aquifer parameters are of utmost importance for proper management of vital groundwater resources. At present scenario the ground water is polluted because of industrial waste disposed over the land and the contaminants are transported in the aquifer from one area to another area which is depending on the characteristics of the aquifer and contaminants. To know the contaminant transport, the accurate estimation of aquifer properties is highly needed. Conventionally, these properties are estimated through pumping tests carried out on water wells. The occurrence and movement of ground water in the aquifer are characteristically defined by the aquifer parameters. The pumping (aquifer) test is the standard technique for estimating various hydraulic properties of aquifer systems, viz, transmissivity (T), hydraulic conductivity (K), storage coefficient (S) etc., for which the graphical method is widely used. The study area for conducting pumping test is Pydibheemavaram Industrial area near the coastal belt of Srikulam, AP, India. The main objective of the present work is to estimate the aquifer properties for developing contaminant transport model for the study area.

Keywords: aquifer, contaminant transport, hydraulic conductivity, industrial waste, pumping test

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Authors: Andrew Laming, John Hattie, Mark Wilson

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Nine Queensland Independent high schools provided deidentified student-matched ATAR and NAPLAN data for all 1217 ATAR graduates since 2020 who also sat NAPLAN at the school. Graduating cohorts from the nine schools contained a mean 100 ATAR graduates with previous NAPLAN data from their school. Excluded were vocational students (mean=27) and any ATAR graduates without NAPLAN data (mean=20). Based on Index of Community Socio-Educational Access (ICSEA) prediction, all schools had larger that predicted proportions of their students graduating with ATARs. There were an additional 173 students not releasing their ATARs to their school (14%), requiring this data to be inferred by schools. Gain was established by first converting each student’s strongest NAPLAN domain to a statewide percentile, then subtracting this result from final ATAR. The resulting ‘percentile shift’ was corrected for plausible ATAR participation at each NAPLAN level. Strongest NAPLAN domain had the highest correlation with ATAR (R2=0.58). RESULTS School mean NAPLAN scores fitted ICSEA closely (R2=0.97). Schools achieved a mean cohort gain of two ATAR rankings, but only 66% of students gained. This ranged from 46% of top-NAPLAN decile students gaining, rising to 75% achieving gains outside the top decile. The 54% of top-decile students whose ATAR fell short of prediction lost a mean 4.0 percentiles (or 6.2 percentiles prior to correction for regression to the mean). 71% of students in smaller schools gained, compared to 63% in larger schools. NAPLAN variability in each of the 13 ICSEA1100 cohorts was 17%, with both intra-school and inter-school variation of these values extremely low (0.3% to 1.8%). Mean ATAR change between years in each school was just 1.1 ATAR ranks. This suggests consecutive school cohorts and ICSEA-similar schools share very similar distributions and outcomes over time. Quantile analysis of the NAPLAN/ATAR revealed heteroscedasticity, but splines offered little additional benefit over simple linear regression. The NAPLAN/ATAR R2 was 0.33. DISCUSSION Standardised data like NAPLAN and ATAR offer educators a simple no-cost progression metric to analyse performance in conjunction with their internal test results. Change is expressed in percentiles, or ATAR shift per student, which is layperson intuitive. Findings may also reduce ATAR/vocational stream mismatch, reveal proportions of cohorts meeting or falling short of expectation and demonstrate by how much. Finally, ‘crashed’ ATARs well below expectation are revealed, which schools can reasonably work to minimise. The percentile shift method is neither value-add nor a growth percentile. In the absence of exit NAPLAN testing, this metric is unable to discriminate academic gain from legitimate ATAR-maximizing strategies. But by controlling for ICSEA, ATAR proportion variation and student mobility, it uncovers progression to ATAR metrics which are not currently publicly available. However achieved, ATAR maximisation is a sought-after private good. So long as standardised nationwide data is available, this analysis offers useful analytics for educators and reasonable predictivity when counselling subsequent cohorts about their ATAR prospects.  

Keywords: NAPLAN, ATAR, analytics, measurement, gain, performance, data, percentile, value-added, high school, numeracy, reading comprehension, variability, regression to the mean

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Authors: Meriem Mossaddek, El Mehdi Laadissi, El Mehdi Loualid, Chouaib Ennawaoui, Sohaib Bouzaid, Abdelowahed Hajjaji

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An electrochemical system is a subset of mechatronic systems that includes a wide variety of batteries and nickel-cadmium, lead-acid batteries, and lithium-ion. Those structures have several non-linear behaviors and uncertainties in their running range. This paper studies an effective technique for modeling Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries using a Nonlinear Auto-Regressive model with exogenous input (NARX). The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is trained to employ the data collected from the battery testing process. The proposed model is implemented on a Li-Ion battery cell. Simulation of this model in MATLAB shows good accuracy of the proposed model.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, neural network, energy storage, battery model, nonlinear models

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Authors: E. Yu. Yakovlev, A. V. Puchkov

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The study is devoted to experimental work on the assessment of emanation properties of kimberlites and host rocks of the Lomonosov diamond deposit of the Arkhangelsk diamondiferous province. The aim of the study is estimation the factors influencing on formation of the radon field over kimberlite pipes. For various types of rocks composing the kimberlite pipe and near-pipe space, the following parameters were measured: porosity, density, radium-226 activity, activity of free radon and emanation coefficient. The research results showed that the largest amount of free radon is produced by rocks of near-pipe space, which are the Vendian host deposits and are characterized by high values of the emanation coefficient, radium activity and porosity. The lowest values of these parameters are characteristic of vent-facies kimberlites, which limit the formation of activity of free radon in body of the pipe. The results of experimental work confirm the prospects of using emanation methods for prospecting of kimberlite pipes.

Keywords: emanation coefficient, kimberlites, porosity, radon volumetric activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Dijiang Lyu, Shaoying Li, Zhangzhi Tan, Zhifeng Wu, Feng Gao

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Nowadays, China is experiencing rapidly urban rail transit expansions in the world. The purpose of this study is to finely model factors influencing transit ridership at multi-time dimensions within transit stations’ pedestrian catchment area (PCA) in Guangzhou, China. This study was based on multi-sources spatial data, including smart card data, high spatial resolution images, points of interest (POIs), real-estate online data and building height data. Eight multiple linear regression models using backward stepwise method and Geographic Information System (GIS) were created at station-level. According to Chinese code for classification of urban land use and planning standards of development land, residential land-use were divided into three categories: first-level (e.g. villa), second-level (e.g. community) and third-level (e.g. urban villages). Finally, it concluded that: (1) four factors (CBD dummy, number of feeder bus route, number of entrance or exit and the years of station operation) were proved to be positively correlated with transit ridership, but the area of green land-use and water land-use negative correlated instead. (2) The area of education land-use, the second-level and third-level residential land-use were found to be highly connected to the average value of morning peak boarding and evening peak alighting ridership. But the area of commercial land-use and the average height of buildings, were significantly positive associated with the average value of morning peak alighting and evening peak boarding ridership. (3) The area of the second-level residential land-use was rarely correlated with ridership in other regression models. Because private car ownership is still large in Guangzhou now, and some residents living in the community around the stations go to work by transit at peak time, but others are much more willing to drive their own car at non-peak time. The area of the third-level residential land-use, like urban villages, was highly positive correlated with ridership in all models, indicating that residents who live in the third-level residential land-use are the main passenger source of the Guangzhou Metro. (4) The diversity of land-use was found to have a significant impact on the passenger flow on the weekend, but was non-related to weekday. The findings can be useful for station planning, management and policymaking.

Keywords: fine-scale modeling, Guangzhou city, multi-time dimensions, multi-sources spatial data, transit ridership

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Authors: C. Gopi Jinimole, A. Harsha

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For detecting strokes, Computed Tomography (CT) scan is preferred for imaging the abnormalities or infarction in the brain. Because of the problems in the window settings used to evaluate brain CT images, they are very poor in the early stage infarction detection. This paper presents an automatic estimation method for the window settings of the CT images for proper contrast of the hyper infarction present in the brain. In the proposed work the window width is estimated automatically for each slice and the window centre is changed to a new value of 31HU, which is the average of the HU values of the grey matter and white matter in the brain. The automatic window width estimation is based on the average of median of statistical central moments. Thus with the new suggested window centre and estimated window width, the hyper infarction or post-stroke regions in CT brain images are properly detected. The proposed approach assists the radiologists in CT evaluation for early quantitative signs of delayed stroke, which leads to severe hemorrhage in the future can be prevented by providing timely medication to the patients.

Keywords: computed tomography (CT), hyper infarction or post stroke region, Hounsefield Unit (HU), window centre (WC), window width (WW)

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Authors: Muhammad Tayyab Afzal, Muhammad Arslan, Mirza Muhammad Waqar

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One of the key components of the water cycle is evapotranspiration (ET), which represents water consumption by vegetated and non-vegetated surfaces. Conventional techniques for measurements of ET are point based and representative of the local scale only. Satellite remote sensing data with large area coverage and high temporal frequency provide representative measurements of several relevant biophysical parameters required for estimation of ET at regional scales. The objective is of this research is to exploit satellite data in order to estimate evapotranspiration. This study uses Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model to calculate daily actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in Larkana District, Sindh Pakistan using Landsat TM data for clouds-free days. As there is no flux tower in the study area for direct measurement of latent heat flux or evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux, therefore, the model estimated values of ET were compared with reference evapotranspiration (ETo) computed by FAO-56 Penman Monteith Method using meteorological data. For a country like Pakistan, agriculture by irrigation in the river basins is the largest user of fresh water. For the better assessment and management of irrigation water requirement, the estimation of consumptive use of water for agriculture is very important because it is the main consumer of water. ET is yet an essential issue of water imbalance due to major loss of irrigation water and precipitation on cropland. As large amount of irrigated water is lost through ET, therefore its accurate estimation can be helpful for efficient management of irrigation water. Results of this study can be used to analyse surface conditions, i.e. temperature, energy budgets and relevant characteristics. Through this information we can monitor vegetation health and suitable agricultural conditions and can take controlling steps to increase agriculture production.

Keywords: SEBS, remote sensing, evapotranspiration, ETa

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Authors: Selamawit Dires, Solomon Tesfamariam, Thomas Tannert

Abstract:

Modern earthquake engineering and design encompass performance-based design philosophy. The main objective in performance-based design is to achieve a system performing precisely to meet the design objectives so to reduce unintended seismic risks and associated losses. Energy-based earthquake-resistant design is one of the design methodologies that can be implemented in performance-based earthquake engineering. In energy-based design, the seismic demand is usually described as the ratio of the hysteretic to input energy. Once the hysteretic energy is known as a percentage of the input energy, it is distributed among energy-dissipating components of a structure. The hysteretic to input energy ratio is highly dependent on the inherent damping of a structural system. In numerical analysis, damping can be modeled as stiffness-proportional, mass-proportional, or a linear combination of stiffness and mass. In this study, the effect of mathematical modeling of damping on the estimation of seismic energy demands is investigated by considering elastic-perfectly-plastic single-degree-of-freedom systems representing short to long period structures. Furthermore, the seismicity of Vancouver, Canada, is used in the nonlinear time history analysis. According to the preliminary results, the input energy demand is not sensitive to the type of damping models deployed. Hence, consistent results are achieved regardless of the damping models utilized in the numerical analyses. On the other hand, the hysteretic to input energy ratios vary significantly for the different damping models.

Keywords: damping, energy-based seismic design, hysteretic energy, input energy

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Authors: Kai Chun Yang, Shao-Wen Chen, Jong-Rong Wang, Chunkuan Shih, Jung-Hua Yang, Hsiung-Chih Chen, Wen-Sheng Hsu

Abstract:

In this study, we build RADionuclide Transport, Removal And Dose Estimation/Symbolic Nuclear Analysis Package (SNAP/RADTRAD) model of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant which is based on the Final Safety Evaluation Report (FSAR) and other data of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant. It is used to estimate the radiation dose of the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB), the Low Population Zone (LPZ), and the control room following ‘release from the containment’ case in Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA). The RADTRAD analysis result shows that the evaluation dose at EAB, LPZ, and the control room are close to the FSAR data, and all of the doses are lower than the regulatory limits. At last, we do a sensitivity analysis and observe that the evaluation doses increase as the intake rate of the control room increases.

Keywords: RADTRAD, radionuclide transport, removal and dose estimation, snap, symbolic nuclear analysis package, boiling water reactor, NPP, kuosheng

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Authors: Yan-Wen Wang, Chu-Yang Chou, Jen-Cheng Wang, Min-Sheng Liao, Hsuan-Hsiang Hsu, Cheng-Ying Chou, Chen-Kang Huang, Kun-Chang Kuo, Joe-Air Jiang

Abstract:

Performance-related parameters of high concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) modules (e.g. current and voltage) are required when estimating the maximum power point using numerical and approximation methods. The maximum power point on the characteristic curve for a photovoltaic module varies when temperature or solar radiation is different. It is also difficult to estimate the output performance and maximum power point (MPP) due to the special characteristics of HCPV modules. Based on the p-n junction semiconductor theory, a brand new and simple method is presented in this study to directly evaluate the MPP of HCPV modules. The MPP of HCPV modules can be determined from an irradiated I-V characteristic curve, because there is a non-linear relationship between the temperature of a solar cell and solar radiation. Numerical simulations and field tests are conducted to examine the characteristics of HCPV modules during maximum output power tracking. The performance of the presented method is evaluated by examining the dependence of temperature and irradiation intensity on the MPP characteristics of HCPV modules. These results show that the presented method allows HCPV modules to achieve their maximum power and perform power tracking under various operation conditions. A 0.1% error is found between the estimated and the real maximum power point.

Keywords: energy performance, high concentrated photovoltaic, maximum power point, p-n junction semiconductor

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Authors: Melkamu A. Zeru, Yamral M. Warkaw, Aweke A. Mitku, Muluwerk Ayele

Abstract:

Introduction: Malaria is a severe health threat in the World, mainly in Africa. It is the major cause of health problems in which the risk of morbidity and mortality associated with malaria cases are characterized by spatial variations across the county. This study aimed to investigate the spatial patterns and predictors of malaria distribution in Ethiopia. Methods: A weighted sample of 15,239 individuals with rapid diagnosis tests was obtained from the Central Statistical Agency and Ethiopia malaria indicator survey of 2015. Global Moran's I and Moran scatter plots were used in determining the distribution of malaria cases, whereas the local Moran's I statistic was used in identifying exposed areas. In data manipulation, machine learning was used for variable reduction and statistical software R, Stata, and Python were used for data management and analysis. The auto logistics spatial binary regression model was used to investigate the predictors of malaria. Results: The final auto logistics regression model reported that male clients had a positive significant effect on malaria cases as compared to female clients [AOR=2.401, 95 % CI: (2.125 - 2.713)]. The distribution of malaria across the regions was different. The highest incidence of malaria was found in Gambela [AOR=52.55, 95%CI: (40.54-68.12)] followed by Beneshangul [AOR=34.95, 95%CI: (27.159 - 44.963)]. Similarly, individuals in Amhara [AOR=0.243, 95% CI:(0.1950.303],Oromiya[AOR=0.197,95%CI:(0.1580.244)],DireDawa[AOR=0.064,95%CI(0.049-0.082)],AddisAbaba[AOR=0.057,95%CI:(0.044-0.075)], Somali[AOR=0.077,95%CI:(0.059-0.097)], SNNPR[OR=0.329, 95%CI: (0.261- 0.413)] and Harari [AOR=0.256, 95%CI:(0.201 - 0.325)] were less likely to had low incidence of malaria as compared with Tigray. Furthermore, for a one-meter increase in altitude, the odds of a positive rapid diagnostic test (RDT) decrease by 1.6% [AOR = 0.984, 95% CI :( 0.984 - 0.984)]. The use of a shared toilet facility was found as a protective factor for malaria in Ethiopia [AOR=1.671, 95% CI: (1.504 - 1.854)]. The spatial autocorrelation variable changes the constant from AOR = 0.471 for logistic regression to AOR = 0.164 for auto logistics regression. Conclusions: This study found that the incidence of malaria in Ethiopia had a spatial pattern that is associated with socio-economic, demographic, and geographic risk factors. Spatial clustering of malaria cases had occurred in all regions, and the risk of clustering was different across the regions. The risk of malaria was found to be higher for those who live in soil floor-type houses as compared to those who live in cement or ceramics floor type. Similarly, households with thatched, metal and thin, and other roof-type houses have a higher risk of malaria than ceramic tiles roof houses. Moreover, using a protected anti-mosquito net reduced the risk of malaria incidence.

Keywords: malaria, Ethiopia, auto logistics, spatial model, spatial clustering

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Authors: Solmaz Jahed Shiran, Elizabeth Taylor, John Hearne

Abstract:

Over the past decade a growing body of research, known as mobility biography approach has emerged that focuses on changes in travel behaviour over the life course of individuals. Mobility biographies suggest that changes in travel behaviour have a certain relation to important key events in life courses such as residential relocation, workplace changes, marriage and the birth of children. Taking this approach as the theoretical background, this study uses data from the Household, Income and Labor Dynamics Survey in Australia (HILDA) to model a set of life course events and their interaction with the commute time. By analysing longitudinal data, it is possible to assign different key events during the life course to change a person’s travel behaviour. Changes in the journey-to-work travel time is used as an indication of travel behaviour change in this study. Results of a linear regression model for change in commute time show a significant influence from socio-demographic factors like income and age, the previous home-to-work commute time and remoteness of the residence. Residential relocation and job change have significant influences on commute time. Other life events such as birth of a child, marriage and divorce or separation have also a strong impact on commute time change. Overall, the research confirms previous studies of links between life course events and travel behaviour.

Keywords: life course events, residential mobility, travel behaviour, commute time, job change

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

Abstract:

In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Cross-validation techniques are employed to assess the robustness and generalization ability of the models. The performance of the models is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The feature importance analysis reveals the relative significance of different project attributes in predicting the impact on cost and schedule. Key factors such as productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are identified as influential predictors. The study highlights the importance of considering both cost and schedule implications when managing scope changes. The developed predictive models provide project managers with a data-driven tool to proactively assess the potential impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. By leveraging these insights, project managers can make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and develop effective mitigation strategies. The findings of this research contribute to improved project planning, risk management, and overall project success.

Keywords: cost impact, machine learning, predictive modeling, schedule impact, scope changes

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