Search results for: financial vulnerability

Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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Authors: N. Akhavan, Sh. Tavousi Tafreshi, A. Ghasemi

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Seismic behavior of irregular structures through the past decades indicate that the stated buildings do not have appropriate performance. Among these subjects, the current paper has investigated the behavior of special steel moment frame with different configuration of soft storey vertically. The analyzing procedure has been evaluated with respect to incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), and numeric process was carried out by OpenSees finite element analysis package. To this end, nine 2D steel frames, with different numbers of stories and irregularity positions, which were subjected to seven pairs of ground motion records orthogonally with respect to Ibarra-Krawinkler deterioration model, have been investigated. This paper aims at evaluating the response of two-dimensional buildings incorporating soft storey which subjected to bi-directional seismic excitation. The IDAs were implemented for different stages of PGA with various ground motion records, in order to determine maximum inter-storey drift ratio. According to statistical elements and fracture range (standard deviation), the vulnerability or exceedance from above-mentioned cases has been examined. For this reason, fragility curves for different placement of soft storey in the first, middle and the last floor for 4, 8, and 16 storey buildings have been generated and compared properly.

Keywords: special steel moment frame, soft storey, incremental dynamic analysis, fragility curve

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Authors: Rajendra Kumar Isaac, Monisha Isaac

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Climate variability and changes are the emerging challenges for Indian agriculture with the growing population to ensure national food security. A study was conducted to assess the Climatic Change effects in medium to low altitude areas of the Himalayan region causing changes in land use and cereal crop productivity with the various climatic parameters. The rainfall and temperature changes from 1951 to 2013 were studied at four locations of varying altitudes, namely Hardwar, Rudra Prayag, Uttar Kashi and Tehri Garwal. It was observed that there is noticeable increment in temperature on all the four locations. It was surprisingly observed that the mean rainfall intensity of 30 minutes duration has increased at the rate of 0.1 mm/hours since 2000. The study shows that the combined effect of increasing temperature, rainfall, runoff and urbanization at the mid-Himalayan region is causing an increase in various climatic disasters and changes in agriculture patterns. A noticeable change in cropping patterns, crop productivity and land use change was observed. Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are necessary to ensure that sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture. Appropriate information is necessary for farmers, as well as planners and decision makers for developing, disseminating and adopting climate-smart technologies.

Keywords: climate variability, agriculture, land use, mitigation strategies

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Authors: Ruchika Yadav

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Street vendors are the integral component of urban economies of the world. They are the distributors of affordable goods and services and provide convenient and accessible retail options to the customers and form a vital part of the social and economic life of a city. A street vendor as an occupation existed for hundreds of years and considered to be as a cornerstone of many cities. In this paper, our objective is to analyze the socio-economic profile of street vendors, identification of their problems and to suggest remedial measures for the betterment based on the observation and suggestions of the street vendors. To conduct this study, primary data has been collected with the help of field survey and direct questionnaire to the respondents in Aligarh City which contains all the information relevant to social and economic conditions. The overall analysis of this study reveals street vendors are the backward sections of the society possess medium to the low-level standard of living due to illiteracy; their working environment and social security issues are not addressed properly. They are unaware of many of the governmental schemes launched for poverty alleviation and their poor accessibility in basic amenities leads to the backward socio-economic status in the society. The results found in this study can be very useful and helping tool for the policymakers to know the socio-economic conditions of the street vendors in detail.

Keywords: abject poverty, socio-economic conditions, street vendors, vulnerability

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Authors: Summer Isaacson

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Research on gender differences in environmental behavior has long claimed that women engage less than men in environmental political participation (EPP) (protests, petitions), despite their higher levels of environmental concern and vulnerability. Using recent data from the ISSP’s 2020 Environment module including 28 countries, we revisit the gender gap in EPP. Arguing that increasing gender equality and socio-economic development can allow women to voice their environmental grievances, we use multi-level models to examine the effects of macro-level gender equality on gender differences in environmental protests, petitions, and boycotts. By distinguishing individual from collective and non-confrontational from confrontational engagement forms, this study offers an encompassing understanding of gendered patterns of participation. Women do participate more than men, but mainly in individual and non-confrontational EPP forms (petitions, boycotts) and with substantial variation across countries. Moreover, considering how women have historically been restrained from participating in politics, we argue that structural gender inequality remains an important limitation to women’s engagement. Cross-level interactions indicate that in more egalitarian countries, women are more likely to engage in several types of EPP than men. The study offers new perspectives and findings on gender differences in EPP, highlighting the impact of gender inequality on women’s participation.

Keywords: environmental activism, political participation, gender equality, pro-environmental behavior

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Authors: Maryam Zahmatkesh

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Middle managers form a significant occupational category in organisations. They undertake a vital role, as they sit between the operational and strategic roles. Traditionally they were acting as diplomat administrators, and were only in power to meet the demands of professionals. Following the introduction of internal market, in line with the principles of New Public Management, middle managers have been considered as change agents. More recently, in the debates of middle managers, there is emphasis on entrepreneurialism and enacting strategic role. It was assumed that granting autonomy to the local organisations and the inception of semi-autonomous hospitals (Foundation Trusts in England and Board of Trustees in Iran) would give managers more autonomy to act proactively and innovatively. This thesis explores the hospital middle managers’ perception of and responses to public management reforms (in particular, hospital autonomy) in England and Iran. In order to meet the aims of the thesis, research was undertaken within the interpretative paradigm, in line with social constructivism. Data were collected from interviews with forty-five middle managers, observational fieldwork and documentary analysis across four teaching university hospitals in England and Iran. The findings show the different ways middle managers’ autonomy is constrained in the two countries. In England, middle managers have financial and human recourses, but their autonomy is constrained by government policy and targets. In Iran, middle managers are less constrained by government policy and targets, but they do not have financial and human resources to exercise autonomy. Unbalanced autonomy causes tension and frustration for middle managers. According to neo-institutional theory, organisations are deeply embedded within social, political, economic and normative settings that exert isomorphic and internal population-level pressures to conform to existing and established modes of operation. Health systems which are seeking to devolve autonomy to middle managers must appreciate the multidimensional nature of the autonomy, as well as the wider environment that organisations are embedded, if they are about to improve the performance of managers and their organisations.

Keywords: autonomy, healthcare organisations, middle managers, new public management

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Authors: S. Archsana, Vajira Balasuriya

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In Trincomalee of Sri Lanka, a post-conflict area, resettlement projects and policy initiatives are taking place to improve the wealth of the rural communities through promoting economic activities by way of encouraging the rural women to opt to commence and operate Micro and Small Scale (MSS) businesses. This study attempts to identify the manner in which the institutional environment could facilitate these MSS businesses owned and operated by women in the rural environment. The respondents of this study are the beneficiaries of the Divi Neguma Development Training Program (DNDTP); a project designed to aid women owned MSS businesses, in Trincomalee district. 96 women business operators, who had obtained financing facilities from the DNDTP, are taken as the sample based on fixed interval random sampling method. The study reveals that primary challenges encountered by 82% of the women business operators are lack of initial capital followed by 71% initial market finding and 35% access to technology. The low level of education and language barriers are the constraints in accessing support agencies/service providers. Institutional support; specifically management and marketing services, have a significant relationship with wealth augmentation. Institutional support at the setting-up stage of businesses are thin whereas terms and conditions of the finance facilities are perceived as ‘too challenging’. Although diversification enhances wealth of the rural women business operators, assistance from the institutional framework to prepare financial reports that are required for business expansion is skinny. The study further reveals that institutional support is very much weak in terms of providing access to new technology and identifying new market networks. A mechanism that could facilitate the institutional framework to support the rural women business operators to access new technology and untapped market segments, and assistance in preparation of legal and financial documentation is recommended.

Keywords: business facilitation, institutional support, rural women business operators, wealth augmentation

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Authors: Dchieche Amina, Aboulaich Rajae

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Profit and loss sharing suggests an equitable sharing of risks and profits between the parts involved in a financial transaction. Salam is a contract in which advance payment is made for goods to be delivered at a future date. The purpose of this work is to price a new contract for profit and loss sharing based on Salam contract, using Khiyar Al Ghabn which is an agreement of choice in case of misrepresent facts.

Keywords: Islamic finance, shariah compliance, profit and loss sharing, derivatives, risks, hedging, salam contract

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Authors: Rusne Kregzdaite

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The value of the cultural sector stems from the symbolic exploration that differentiates cultural organisations from other product or service organisations. As a result, the cultural sector has a dual impact on the socio-economic system: the economic value (expressed in terms of market relations) created influences the dynamics of the country's financial indicators, while the cultural (non-market) value indirectly contributes to the welfare of the state through changes in societal values, creativity transformations and cultural needs of the country. Measurement of indirect (cultural value) impacts is difficult, but in the case of the cultural sector (especially when it comes to economically inefficient state-funded culture), it helps to reveal the essential characteristics of the sector. The study aims to analyze the value of cultural organisations that are invisible in market processes and to base it on quantified calculations. This was be done by analyzing the usefulness of the consumer, incorporating not only the price paid but also the social and cultural decision-making factors that determine the spectator's choice (time dedicated for a visit, additional costs, content, previous experiences, corporate image). This may reflect the consumer's real choice to consume (all the costs he incurs may be considered the financial equivalent of his experience with the cultural establishment). The research methodology was tested by analyzing the performing arts sector and applying methods to the Lithuanian national drama theatre case. The empirical research consisted of a survey (more than 800 participants) of Lithuanian national drama theatre visitors to different performances. The willingness to pay and travel costs methods were used. Analysis of different performances lets identifies the factor that increases willingness to pay for the performance and affects theatre attendance. The research stresses the importance of cultural value and social perspective of the cultural sector and relates it to the discussions of public funding of culture.

Keywords: cultural economics, performing arts, willingness to pay, travel cost analysis, performing arts management

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Authors: Maria Luz Macasinag

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This study aims to determine and to examine critically successful family-owned higher educational institutions towards identifying the attributes and practices that may likely have led to their success. This research is confined to private, non-sectarian, family-owned higher institutions of learning that have been operating for more than fifty years, had only one founder and had at least two transitions in terms of generation. The criteria for selecting family-owned universities to be part of the cases under investigation include institutions (1) with increasing enrollment over the past five years, with level III accreditation status, (3) with good performance in the Board examinations in most of its programs and (4) with high employability of graduates. The study uses the multiple case study method. A model based on the cross-case analysis of the attributes and practices of all the case studies of successful family- owned higher institutions of learning is the output. The paper provides insights to current and future school owners and administrators in the management of their institutions for competitiveness, sustainability and advancement. This research encourages the evaluation of how the ideas that may lead to the success of schools owned by families in developing a sense of community, a reciprocal relationship among colleagues, the students and other stakeholders will result to the attainment of the vision and mission of the school. The study is beneficial to entrepreneurs and to business students whose know-how may provide insights that would be helpful in guiding prospective school owners. The commission on higher education and the Department of Education stand to benefit from this academic paper for the guidance that they provide to family-owned educational institutions. Banks and other financial institutions may find valuable ideas from this academic paper for the purpose of providing financial assistance to colleges and universities that are family-owned. Researchers in the field of educational management and administration may be able to extract from this study related topics for future research.

Keywords: administration practices, attributes, family-owned schools, success factors

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Authors: Bruno Mazorra Roig

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In the realm of cost-sharing mechanisms, the vulnerability to Sybil strategies, where agents can create fake identities to manipulate outcomes, has not yet been studied. In this paper, we delve into the intricacies of different cost-sharing mechanisms proposed in the literature, highlighting its non-Sybil-resistance nature. Furthermore, we prove that under mild conditions, a Sybil-proof cost-sharing mechanism for public excludable goods is at least (n/2 + 1)−approximate. This finding reveals an exponential increase in the worst-case social cost in environments where agents are restricted from using Sybil strategies. We introduce the concept of Sybil Welfare Invariant mechanisms, where a mechanism maintains its worst-case welfare under Sybil strategies for every set of prior beliefs with full support even when the mechanism is not Sybil-proof. Finally, we prove that the Shapley value mechanism for public excludable goods holds this property and so deduce that the worst-case social cost of this mechanism is the nth harmonic number Hn under the equilibrium of the game with Sybil strategies, matching the worst-case social cost bound for cost-sharing mechanisms. This finding carries important implications for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), indicating that they are capable of funding public excludable goods efficiently, even when the total number of agents is unknown.

Keywords: game theory, mechanism design, cost sharing, false-name proofness

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Authors: Patience Oluchi Silas, Yemi Adeshina

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Financial transactions involving the use of the internet has become an important practice among commercial banks in Nigeria with the introduction of internet banking and this has improved banking efficiency in rending services to customers. However, customers in Lagos State are enslaved in the fear of insecurity, technical failure, inadequate operational facilities, including improper telecommunications and poor power supply. It is in line with this that this paper explores the obstacles faced by Lagosians, tourists, small scale business owners, companies, customers and the government's attitude in addressing the challenges associated with online banking system in Nigeria through relevant legislations. Internet banking has the potential to transform economic activity and achieve developmental goals. If the associated Challenges are addressed quickly, then it will have the desired impact on the Nigerian economy. In this study, Respondents, mostly bank employees and customers were issued well designed and structured questionnaires to effectively examine the new developments brought about by the introduction of Internet banking and the challenges inhibiting its adoption. Hypotheses were formulated to test assumptions and claims generated from the study. The results were statistically analyzed to address the issues of errors and chances, and at the end, the result of the statistical analysis shows that all especially insecurity, inadequate operational facilities and poor power supply are the significant factors affecting the adoption of internet banking services in Nigeria. The study recommends that for internet banking to assume a developmental dimension in Nigeria and for the country to be fully integrated and respected in global financial environment, the prevalent level of frauds in Lagos State and among Nigerians must first be addressed and the relevant local laws should be put in place and in consonance with international laws and conventions; get the citizens well educated on the intricacies of Internet usage and frauds.

Keywords: internet-banking, adoption, challenges, insecurity, legislation, fraud, Lagos state, statistics

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Authors: Mohammad Aynal Haque

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Under the international cooperation — Paris Agreement — countries outline their self-determined policy ambition for emissions reduction in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as a key to addressing climate change globally. Although practically all countries commit themselves to reach the Paris landmark (below 20 C) globally, some act as climate leaders, others behave as followers, and others turn out to be climate laggards. As a result, there is a substantial variation in ‘emissions reduction targets’ across countries. Thus, a question emerges: What explains this variation? Or why do some countries opt for higher while others opt for lower ‘emissions reduction targets toward global mitigation efforts? Conceptualizing the ‘emissions reduction targets by 2030’ outlined in NDCs by each country as the climate policy ambition (CPA), this paper explores how certain national political, economic, environmental, and external factors play vital roles in determining climate policy ambition. Based on the cross-country regression analysis among 168 countries, this study finds that democracy, vulnerability to climate change effects, and foreign direct investment have substantial effects on CPA. The paper also finds that resource capacity has a minimal negative effect on CPA across developed countries.

Keywords: climate change, Paris agreement, international cooperation, political economy, environmental politics, NDCs

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Authors: Tesfahiwot Abay Weldearegay

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Ethiopian Federal ministry of health, in collaboration with different partners, provides financial support from sustainable development grants and global fund budget sources to Regional health science colleges through the regional health bureau to improve the quality of training and avail professionals based on the regional health bureau demand from the year of 2012 to 2019EC. It was mainly focused on health extension workers (HEW) Level III&IV, Health Information technicians (HIT), Emergency Medical technicians (EMT), laboratory technicians, Pharmacy technicians, Anesthesia Level V, Radiography, midwifery, Environmental health and biomedical equipment technician. Laboratory technician, Radiography and Pharmacy technician, was retooling program. The study aims at assessing the Utilization and outcome of budgets transferred through regional health bureau to regional health science colleges. The study used both quantitative and qualitative approaches to develop sufficient data to explain the utilization of the budget, and outcomes obtained from the transferred budget and to identify the gaps. The data for the study were obtained through structured questionnaires and interviews was conducted to increase the reliability of the data. Nationally, students enrolled in different disciplines at RHSC through budget support for RHB to improve the quality of training were 87 840 students and the total Budget transferred, according to MOU was 895,752,038 Ethiopian birr. Among the students enrolled nationally in different disciplines at RHSC through budget support only 72% of students have graduated from different disciplines. In Hareri and Addis Ababa, all enrolled students were graduated (100%). At the same time, Oromia 69%, Amara 77%, SNNP 58% students graduated, respectively. The demand of the regional health bureau and the enrollment capacity of health science colleges increased from year to year. The financial support added great value to the HSCs to cop with problems related to student fees, skill lab materials and renovation.

Keywords: emergency medical technician, radiography, Biomedical, health extension

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Authors: Chowdhury Dilruba Shoma

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Gender is about equal rights that both males and females having access to responsibilities and opportunities in decision making is a fundamental human right. It is also a precondition for, and a mark of, sustainable people-oriented development. In Bangladesh, women have fewer opportunities than men do to access credit from banks and financial institutions. Entrenched patriarchal attitudes, unequal inheritance rights, and male-dominated hierarchies in the financial system, plus high interest rates and a lack of security/collateral, make it harder for women to obtain bank loans. Limited access to institutional credit is a serious restraint on the productivity and income of women entrepreneurs, (and the wider economy). These gender-biased and structural barriers inhibit women’s access to fundamental economic rights. Using a liberal feminist theoretical lens, this study provides some useful insights into the relationship between gender inequality and entrepreneurship, leading to a better understanding of women’s entrepreneurship development in Bangladesh. Recently, the Bangladesh Government, the United Nations Capital Development Fund, and Bangladesh Bank opened up the Women Entrepreneur Support Fund (WESF) ‒ Credit Guarantee Scheme (CGS) pilot project to cover collateral shortfalls for women entrepreneurs in the small and medium enterprise sector. The aim is to improve gender equality and advance women’s rights in relation to receiving credit. This article examines the challenges and prospects of the WESF-CGS, and suggests that implementation of measures in WESF-CGS policymaking, coupled with a combination of legislatory and regulatory reforms that implement the fundamental tenets of liberal feminism, can lead to a comprehensive and effective credit policy to boost women’s agency and economic empowerment. This may ultimately lead to more sustainable development in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Bangladesh, credit guarantee scheme, liberal feminist theory, women entrepreneur support fund

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Authors: kaveh Jalilzadeh, Maryam Rastgari

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Motivation for learning a foreign language is needed for learners of any foreign language to effectively learn language skills. However, there are some factors that lead to the learners’ demotivation. Therefore, teachers of foreign languages, most notably English language which turned out to be an international language for academic and business purposes, need to be well aware of the demotivation sources and know how to reduce learners’ demotivation. This study is an attempt to explore demotivation-reducing strategies employed by Turkish EFL learners in L2 writing. The researchers used a qualitative case study and employed semi-structured interviews to collect data. The informants recruited in this study were 20 English writing lecturers who were selected through purposive sampling among university lecturers/instructors at the state and non-state universities in Istanbul and Ankara. Interviews were transcribed verbatim, and MAXQDA software (version 2022) was used for performing coding and thematic analysis of the data. Findings revealed that Turkish EFL teachers use 18 strategies to reduce language learners’ demotivation. The most frequently reported strategies were: writing in a group, writing about interesting topics, writing about new topics, writing about familiar topics, writing about simple topics, and writing about relevant topics. The findings have practical implications for writing teachers and learners of the English language.

Keywords: phenomenological study, emotional vulnerability, motivation, digital Settings

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Authors: Muhammad Jawad Hashmi

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The idea of nuclear terrorism is as old as nuclear weapons but the global concerns of likelihood of nuclear terrorism are uncertain. Post 9/11 trends manifest that terrorists are believers of massive causalities. Innovation in terrorist’s tactics, sophisticated weaponry, vulnerability, theft and smuggling of nuclear/radiological material, connections between terrorists, black market and rough regimes are signaling seriousness of upcoming challenges as well as global trends of “terror-transnationalism.” Furthermore, the International-Atomic-Energy-Agency’s database recorded 2734 incidents regarding misuse, unauthorized possession, trafficking of nuclear material etc. Since, this data also includes incidents from south Asia, so, there is every possibility to claim that such illicit activities may increase in future, mainly due to expansion of nuclear industry in South Asia. Moreover, due to such mishaps the region is vulnerable to threats of nuclear terrorism. This is also a reason that the region is in limelight along with issues such as rapidly growing nuclear arsenals, nuclear safety and security, terrorism and political instability. With this backdrop, this study is aimed to investigate the prevailing threats and challenges in South Asia vis a vis nuclear safety and security. A comparative analysis of the overall capabilities would be done to identify the areas of cooperation to eliminate the probability of nuclear/radiological terrorism in the region.

Keywords: nuclear terrorism, safety, security, South Asia, india, Pakistan

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Authors: Mohammad Yousefikia, Sara Moridpour, Ehsan Mazloumi

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Perceiving track geometry deterioration decisively influences the optimization of track maintenance operations. The effective management of this deterioration and increasingly utilized system with limited financial resources is a significant challenge. This paper provides a review of degradation models relevant for railroad tracks. Furthermore, due to the lack of long term information on the condition development of tram infrastructures, presents the methodology which will be used to derive degradation models from the data of Melbourne tram network.

Keywords: deterioration modeling, asset management, railway, tram

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Authors: C. Caçador, M. J. Reis Lima, J. Oliveira, M. J. Veiga, M. Teixeira Veríssimo, F. Ramos, M. C. Castilho, E. Teixeira-Lemos

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In the present study we evaluated the nutritional status of 214 institutionalized elderly residents of both genders, aged 65 years and older of 11 care homes located in the district of Viseu (center of Portugal). The evaluation was based on anthropometric measurements and the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score. The mean age of the subjects was 82.3 ± 6.1 years-old. Most of the elderly residents were female (72.0%). The majority had 4 years of formal education (51.9%) and was widowed (74.3%) or married (14.0%). Men presented a mean age of 81.2±8.5 years-old, weight 69.3±14.5 kg and BMI 25.33±6.5 kg/m2. In women, the mean age was 84.5±8.2 years-old, weight 61.2±14.7 kg and BMI 27.43±5.6 kg/m2. The evaluation of the nutritional status using the MNA score showed that 24.0% of the residents show a risk of undernutrition and 76.0% of them were well nourished. There was a high prevalence of obese (24.8%) and overweight residents (33.2%) according to the BMI. 7.5% were considered underweight. We also found that according to their waist circumference measurements 88.3% of the residents were at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 64.0% of them presented very high risk for CVD (WC≥88 cm for women and WC ≥102 cm for men). The present study revealed the coexistence of a dual form of malnutrition (undernourished and overweight) among the institutionalized Portuguese concomitantly with an excess of abdominal adiposity. The high prevalence of residents at high risk for CVD should not be overlooked. Given the vulnerability of the group of institutionalized elderly, our study highlights the importance of the classification of nutritional status based on both instruments: the BMI and the MNA.

Keywords: nutritional satus, MNA, BMI, elderly

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Authors: Célia Barreto Carvalho, Carolina da Motta, Marina Sousa, Joana Cabral, Ana Luísa Carvalho, Ermelindo Peixoto

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The aim of the current study was to develop and validate a Response to Stressful Situations Scale (RSSS) for the Portuguese population. This scale assesses the degree of stress experienced in scenarios that can constitute positive, negative and more neutral stressors, and also describes the physiological, emotional and behavioral reactions to those events according to their intensity. These scenario include typical stressor scenarios relevant to patients with schizophrenia, which are currently absent from most scale, assessing specific risks that these stressors may bring on subjects, which may prove useful in non-clinical and clinical populations (i.e. patients with mood or anxiety disorders, schizophrenia). Results from Principal Components Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis of on two adult samples from general population allowed to confirm a three-factor model with good fit indices: χ2 (144)= 370.211, p = 0.000; GFI = 0.928; CFI = 0.927; TLI = 0.914, RMSEA = 0.055, P( rmsea ≤ 0.005) = 0.096; PCFI = 0.781. Further data analysis on the scale revealed that RSSS is an adequate assessment tool of stress response in adults to be used in further research and clinical settings, with good psychometric characteristics, adequate divergent and convergent validity, good temporal stability and high internal consistency.

Keywords: assessment, stress events, stress response, stress vulnerability

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Authors: Afsana Afsar Tuly

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The Rohingyas are a group of minority Muslimsin Myanmar who witnessed series of persecution, violence, and torture from Burmese military since 1948. In 2017, around 700,000 Rohingyas fled to the neighboring country Bangladesh and took shelter as refugees after facing clashes with Myanmar security forces. The number increased to 1.8 million in 2020, creating one of the largest refugee crises of recent times. This research focuses on the vulnerability and poverty faced by Rohingyas in refugee camps and how thelack of long-term solution and silence from international communitycan pose national security threat and increasing Islamic extremism in Bangladesh. Islamic religious and terrorist groups have used the Rohingyas position as stateless people to influence them into speaking against the secular government of Bangladesh. There has been increasing crime rates and formation of different rebel groups in refugee camps, causing clashes with Bangladeshi police and authority. Human trafficking, illegal drug dealings, prostitution, and other illicit activities have continuously gone up in the southeastern part of Bangladesh. Some economic, social, and environmental factors are studied and analyzed to show the change in Bangladesh between 2017 and 2020.

Keywords: national security threat, islamic extremism, rohingya refugees, refugee studies, Bangladesh, myanmar

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Authors: Muhammad Ali, Zeeshan Afzal, Giampaolo Ferraioli, Gilda Schirinzi, Muhammad Saleem Mughal, Vito Pascazio

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On 24 September 2019, an earthquake with 5.6 Mw and 10 km depth stroke in Mirpur. The Mirpur area was highly affected by this earthquake, with the death of 34 people. This study aims to estimate the surface deformation associated with this earthquake. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique is applied to study earthquake induced surface motion. InSAR data using 9 Sentinel-1A SAR images from 11 August 2019 to 22 October 2019 is used to investigate the pre, co-, and post-seismic deformation trends. Time series investigation reveals that there was not such deformation in pre-seismic time period. In the co-seismic time period, strong displacement was observed, and in post-seismic results, small displacement is seen due to aftershocks. Our results show the existence of a previously unpublished blind fault in Mirpur and help to locate the fault line. Previous this fault line was triggered during the 2005 earthquake, and now it’s activated on 24 September 2019. Study area is already facing many problems due to natural hazards where additional surface deformations, particularly because of an earthquake with an activated blind fault, have increased its vulnerability.

Keywords: surface deformation, InSAR, earthquake, sentinel-1, mirpur

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Authors: Preston Nabors, Nasseh Tabrizi

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Portable Document Format (PDF) files have gained significant popularity for sharing and distributing documents due to their universal compatibility. However, the widespread use of PDF files has made them attractive targets for cybercriminals, who exploit vulnerabilities to deliver malware and compromise the security of end-user systems. This paper reviews notable contributions in PDF malware detection, including static, dynamic, signature-based, and hybrid analysis. It presents a comprehensive examination of PDF malware detection techniques, focusing on the emerging threat of adversarial sampling and the need for robust defense mechanisms. The paper highlights the vulnerability of machine learning classifiers to evasion attacks. It explores adversarial sampling techniques in PDF malware detection to produce mimicry and reverse mimicry evasion attacks, which aim to bypass detection systems. Improvements for future research are identified, including accessible methods, applying adversarial sampling techniques to malicious payloads, evaluating other models, evaluating the importance of features to malware, implementing adversarial defense techniques, and conducting comprehensive examination across various scenarios. By addressing these opportunities, researchers can enhance PDF malware detection and develop more resilient defense mechanisms against adversarial attacks.

Keywords: adversarial attacks, adversarial defense, adversarial machine learning, intrusion detection, PDF malware, malware detection, malware detection evasion

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Authors: Basel Halak, Christian Hall, Syed Abdul Father, Nelson Chow Wai Kit, Ruwaydah Widaad Raymode

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The attack surface on computing devices is becoming very sophisticated, driven by the sheer increase of interconnected devices, reaching 50B in 2025, which makes it easier for adversaries to have direct access and perform well-known physical attacks. The impact of increased security vulnerability of electronic systems is exacerbated for devices that are part of the critical infrastructure or those used in military applications, where the likelihood of being targeted is very high. This continuously evolving landscape of security threats calls for a new generation of defense methods that are equally effective and adaptive. This paper proposes an intelligent defense mechanism to protect from physical tampering, it consists of a tamper detection system enhanced with machine learning capabilities, which allows it to recognize normal operating conditions, classify known physical attacks and identify new types of malicious behaviors. A prototype of the proposed system has been implemented, and its functionality has been successfully verified for two types of normal operating conditions and further four forms of physical attacks. In addition, a systematic threat modeling analysis and security validation was carried out, which indicated the proposed solution provides better protection against including information leakage, loss of data, and disruption of operation.

Keywords: anti-tamper, hardware, machine learning, physical security, embedded devices, ioT

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Authors: Yananda Siraphatthada

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The objectives of this research were to study the level of influencing factors, leadership, supply chain management, innovation, competitive advantages, business success, and affecting factors to the business success of the mobile phone system service providers in Bangkok Metropolitan. This research was done by the quantitative approach and the qualitative approach. The quantitative approach was used for questionnaires to collect data from the 331 mobile service shop managers franchised by AIS, Dtac and TrueMove. The mobile phone system service providers/shop managers were randomly stratified and proportionally allocated into subgroups exclusive to the number of the providers in each network. In terms of qualitative method, there were in-depth interviews of 6 mobile service providers/managers of Telewiz and Dtac and TrueMove shop to find the agreement or disagreement with the content analysis method. Descriptive Statistics, including Frequency, Percentage, Means and Standard Deviation were employed; also, the Structural Equation Model (SEM) was used as a tool for data analysis. The content analysis method was applied to identify key patterns emerging from the interview responses. The two data sets were brought together for comparing and contrasting to make the findings, providing triangulation to enrich result interpretation. It revealed that the level of the influencing factors – leadership, innovation management, supply chain management, and business competitiveness had an impact at a great level, but that the level of factors, innovation and the business, financial success and nonbusiness financial success of the mobile phone system service providers in Bangkok Metropolitan, is at the highest level. Moreover, the business influencing factors, competitive advantages in the business of mobile system service providers which were leadership, supply chain management, innovation management, business advantages, and business success, had statistical significance at .01 which corresponded to the data from the interviews.

Keywords: mobile service providers, facilitating factors, Bangkok Metropolitan, business success

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Authors: Pedram Saadati, Zahra Nazari

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Anticipating and identifying future opportunities and challenges facing industry activists for the emergence and entry of new knowledge and technologies of personal financial planning, and providing practical solutions is one of the goals of this research. For this purpose, a future research tool based on receiving opinions from the main players of the insurance industry has been used. The research method in this study was in 4 stages; including 1- a survey of the specialist salesforce of life insurance in order to identify the variables 2- the ranking of the variables by experts selected by a researcher-made questionnaire 3- holding a panel of experts with the aim of understanding the mutual effects of the variables and 4- statistical analyzes of the mutual effects matrix in Mick Mac software is done. The integrated analysis of influencing variables in the future has been done with the method of Structural Analysis, which is one of the efficient and innovative methods of future research. A list of opportunities and challenges was identified through a survey of best-selling life insurance representatives who were selected by snowball sampling. In order to prioritize and identify the most important issues, all the issues raised were sent to selected experts who were selected theoretically through a researcher-made questionnaire. The respondents determined the importance of 36 variables through scoring, so that the prioritization of opportunity and challenge variables can be determined. 8 of the variables identified in the first stage were removed by selected experts, and finally, the number of variables that could be examined in the third stage became 28 variables, which, in order to facilitate the examination, were divided into 6 categories, respectively, 11 variables of organization and management. Marketing and sales 7 cases, social and cultural 6 cases, technological 2 cases, rebranding 1 case and insurance 1 case were divided. The reliability of the researcher-made questionnaire was confirmed with the Cronbach's alpha test value of 0.96. In the third stage, by forming a panel consisting of 5 insurance industry experts, the consensus of their opinions about the influence of factors on each other and the ranking of variables was entered into the matrix. The matrix included the interrelationships of 28 variables, which were investigated using the structural analysis method. By analyzing the data obtained from the matrix by Mic Mac software, the findings of the research indicate that the categories of "correct training in the use of the software, the weakness of the technology of insurance companies in personalizing products, using the approach of equipping the customer, and honesty in declaring no need Customer to Insurance", the most important challenges of the influencer and the categories of "salesforce equipping approach, product personalization based on customer needs assessment, customer's pleasant experience of being consulted with consulting robots, business improvement of the insurance company due to the use of these tools, increasing the efficiency of the issuance process and optimal customer purchase" were identified as the most important opportunities for influence.

Keywords: personal financial planning, wealth management, advisor robots, life insurance, digital transformation

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Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent's attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents’ interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: artificial stock markets, market dynamics, bounded rationality, agent based simulation, learning, interaction, social networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Monika Yadav

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The incorporation of a healthy lifestyle significantly contributes to the advancement of economic development. Urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth have enhanced living conditions, promoting sedentary behaviours among individuals with elevated socio-economic statuses. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased globally, along with the rise in living standards, posing a growing health risk. Overweight and obesity are known to be precursors to a range of modifiable and metabolic risk factors, contributing to the increase in lifestyle diseases. Unhealthy dietary choices and lifestyle practices primarily drive these diseases. Lifestyle diseases refer to chronic and non-communicable illnesses, encompassing conditions such as hypertension, heart disease, kidney disorders, infertility, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOD), diabetes, respiratory diseases, and certain forms of cancer. This study examines the prevalence of lifestyle diseases among urban Indian women, explicitly differentiating between individuals with normal weight and those classified as obese. The main aim of this study is to investigate whether there is a correlation between a higher body mass index (BMI) in women and an increased vulnerability to lifestyle diseases when compared to women with a normal BMI. This research provides insights into the intricate relationship between lifestyle, health, and economic development within urban areas.

Keywords: urbanization, economic development, BMI, NCDs, urban, women, lifestyle practices

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Mehaiguene Madjid, Meddi Mohamed

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The results of applying the model WEAP 21 or 'Water Evaluation and Planning System' in Upper and Middle Cheliff are presented in cartographic and graphic forms by considering two scenarios: -Reference scenario 1961-1990, -Climate change scenarios (low and high) for 2020 and 2050. These scenarios are presented together in the results and compared them to know the impact on aquatic systems and water resources. For the low scenario for 2050, a decrease in the rate of runoff / infiltration will be 81.4 to 3.7 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. While for the high scenario for 2050, the reduction will be 87.2 to 78.9 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. Comparing the two scenarios, shows that the water supplied will increase by 216.7 Hm3 to 596 Hm3 up to 2050 if we do not take account of climate change. Whereas, if climate change will decrease step by step: from 2010 to 2026: for the climate change scenario (high scenario) by 2050, water supplied from 346 Hm3 to 361 Hm3. That of the reference scenario (1961-1990) will increase to 379.7 Hm3 in 2050. This is caused by the increased demand (increased population, irrigated area, etc ). The balance water management basin is positive for the different Horizons and different situations. If we do not take account of climate change will be the outflow of 5881.4 Hm3. This excess at the basin can be used as part of a transfer for example.

Keywords: balance water, management basin, climate change scenario, Upper and Middle Cheliff

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami

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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.

Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition

Procedia PDF Downloads 133