Search results for: spatial error models

Authors: L.Jowkar. M.Samiee

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Models or systems based on rainfall and runoff are numerous and have been formulated and applied depending on the precipitation regime, temperature, and climate. In this study, the ArcCN-Runoff rain-runoff modeling tool was used to estimate the spatial variability of the rainfall-runoff relationship in Sartang Ramon in Jiroft watershed. In this study, the runoff was estimated from 6-hour rainfall. The results showed that based on hydrological soil group map, soils with hydrological groups A, B, C, and D covered 1, 2, 55, and 41% of the basin, respectively. Given that the majority of the area has a slope above 60 percent and results of soil hydrologic groups, one can conclude that Sartang Ramon Basin has a relatively high potential for producing runoff. The average runoff height for a 6-hour rainfall with a 2-year return period is 26.6 mm. The volume of runoff from the 2-year return period was calculated as the runoff height of each polygon multiplied by the area of the polygon, which is 137913486 m³ for the whole basin.

Keywords: Arc CN-Run off, rain-runoff, return period, watershed

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: K. M. Damodara Gowda

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Background: Maternal health and nutrition are considered as the predominant factors influencing brain functional development. If the mother is free of illness and genetic defects, maternal nutrition would be one of the most critical factors affecting the brain development. Calorie restrictions cause significant impairment in spatial learning ability and the levels of Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in rats. But, the mechanism by which the prenatal under-nutrition leads to impairment in brain learning and memory function is still unclear. In the present study, prenatal Astaxanthin supplementation on BDNF level, spatial learning and memory performance in the offspring’s of normal, calorie restricted and Astaxanthin supplemented rats was investigated. Methodology: The rats were administered with 6mg and 12 mg of astaxanthin /kg bw for 21 days following which acquisition and retention of spatial memory was tested in a partially-baited eight arm radial maze. The BDNF level in different regions of the brain (cerebral cortex, hippocampus and cerebellum) was estimated by ELISA method. Results: Calorie restricted animals treated with astaxanthin made significantly more correct choices (P < 0.05), and fewer reference memory errors (P < 0.05) on the tenth day of training compared to offsprings of calorie restricted animals. Calorie restricted animals treated with astaxanthin also made significantly higher correct choices (P < 0.001) than untreated calorie restricted animals in a retention test 10 days after the training period. The mean BDNF level in cerebral cortex, Hippocampus and cerebellum in Calorie restricted animals treated with astaxanthin didnot show significant variation from that of control animals. Conclusion: Findings of the study indicated that memory and learning was impaired in the offspring’s of calorie restricted rats which was effectively modulated by astaxanthin at the dosage of 12 mg/kg body weight. In the same way the BDNF level at cerebral cortex, Hippocampus and Cerebellum was also declined in the offspring’s of calorie restricted animals, which was also found to be effectively normalized by astaxanthin.

Keywords: calorie restiction, learning, Memory, Cerebral cortex, Hippocampus, Cerebellum, BDNF, Astaxanthin

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Ryan S. Johnson, Raeesa Moolla

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Airports are known air pollution hotspots due to the variety of fuel driven activities that take place within the confines of them. As such, people working within airports are particularly vulnerable to exposure of hazardous air pollutants, including hundreds of aromatic hydrocarbons, and more specifically a group of compounds known as BTEX (viz. benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylenes). These compounds have been identified as being harmful to human and environmental health. Through the use of passive and active sampling methods, the spatial and temporal variability of benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations within the international airport was investigated. Two sampling campaigns were conducted. In order to quantify the temporal variability of concentrations within the airport, an active sampling strategy using the Synspec Spectras Gas Chromatography 955 instrument was used. Furthermore, a passive sampling campaign, using Radiello Passive Samplers was used to quantify the spatial variability of these compounds. In addition, meteorological factors are known to affect the dispersal and dilution of pollution. Thus a Davis Pro-Weather 2 station was utilised in order to measure in situ weather parameters (viz. wind speed, wind direction and temperature). Results indicated that toluene varied on a daily, temporal scale considerably more than other concentrations. Toluene further exhibited a strong correlation with regards to the meteorological parameters, inferring that toluene was affected by these parameters to a greater degree than the other pollutants. The passive sampling campaign revealed BTEXtotal concentrations ranged between 12.95 – 124.04 µg m-3. From the results obtained it is clear that benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations are heterogeneously spatially dispersed within the airport. Due to the slow wind speeds recorded over the passive sampling campaign (1.13 m s-1.), the hotspots were located close to the main concentration sources. The most significant hotspot was located over the main apron of the airport. It is recommended that further, extensive investigations into the seasonality of hazardous air pollutants at the airport is necessary in order for sound conclusions to be made about the temporal and spatial distribution of benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations within the airport.

Keywords: airport, air pollution hotspot, BTEX concentrations, meteorology

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Jessica Lopez Espejel, Mahaman Sanoussi Yahaya Alassan, Walid Dahhane, El Hassane Ettifouri

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Pretrained transformer-based models have shown high performance in natural language generation tasks. However, a new wave of interest has surged: automatic programming language code generation. This task consists of translating natural language instructions to a source code. Despite the fact that well-known pre-trained models on language generation have achieved good performance in learning programming languages, effort is still needed in automatic code generation. In this paper, we introduce JaCoText, a model based on Transformer neural network. It aims to generate java source code from natural language text. JaCoText leverages the advantages of both natural language and code generation models. More specifically, we study some findings from state of the art and use them to (1) initialize our model from powerful pre-trained models, (2) explore additional pretraining on our java dataset, (3) lead experiments combining the unimodal and bimodal data in training, and (4) scale the input and output length during the fine-tuning of the model. Conducted experiments on CONCODE dataset show that JaCoText achieves new state-of-the-art results.

Keywords: java code generation, natural language processing, sequence-to-sequence models, transformer neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Zachary Huffman, Joana Rocha

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Wall-pressure fluctuations induced by the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) developed over aircraft are a significant source of aircraft cabin noise. Since the power spectral density (PSD) of these pressure fluctuations is directly correlated with the amount of sound radiated into the cabin, the development of accurate empirical models that predict the PSD has been an important ongoing research topic. The sound emitted can be represented from the pressure fluctuations term in the Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Therefore, early TBL empirical models (including those from Lowson, Robertson, Chase, and Howe) were primarily derived by simplifying and solving the RANS for pressure fluctuation and adding appropriate scales. Most subsequent models (including Goody, Efimtsov, Laganelli, Smol’yakov, and Rackl and Weston models) were derived by making modifications to these early models or by physical principles. Overall, these models have had varying levels of accuracy, but, in general, they are most accurate under the specific Reynolds and Mach numbers they were developed for, while being less accurate under other flow conditions. Despite this, recent research into the possibility of using alternative methods for deriving the models has been rather limited. More recent studies have demonstrated that an artificial neural network model was more accurate than traditional models and could be applied more generally, but the accuracy of other machine learning techniques has not been explored. In the current study, an original model is derived using a stepwise regression algorithm in the statistical programming language R, and TBL wall-pressure fluctuations PSD data gathered at the Carleton University wind tunnel. The theoretical advantage of a stepwise regression approach is that it will automatically filter out redundant or uncorrelated input variables (through the process of feature selection), and it is computationally faster than machine learning. The main disadvantage is the potential risk of overfitting. The accuracy of the developed model is assessed by comparing it to independently sourced datasets.

Keywords: aircraft noise, machine learning, power spectral density models, regression models, turbulent boundary layer wall-pressure fluctuations

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Authors: Sizar Abed Mohammed, Zahraa Ghazi Sadeeq

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The use of the classic method, least squares (OLS) to estimate the linear regression parameters, when they are available assumptions, and capabilities that have good characteristics, such as impartiality, minimum variance, consistency, and so on. The development of alternative statistical techniques to estimate the parameters, when the data are contaminated with outliers. These are powerful methods (or resistance). In this paper, three of robust methods are studied, which are: Maximum likelihood type estimate M-estimator, Modified Maximum likelihood type estimate MM-estimator and Least Trimmed Squares LTS-estimator, and their results are compared with OLS method. These methods applied to real data taken from Duhok company for manufacturing furniture, the obtained results compared by using the criteria: Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Sum of Absolute Error (MSAE). Important conclusions that this study came up with are: a number of typical values detected by using four methods in the furniture line and very close to the data. This refers to the fact that close to the normal distribution of standard errors, but typical values in the doors line data, using OLS less than that detected by the powerful ways. This means that the standard errors of the distribution are far from normal departure. Another important conclusion is that the estimated values of the parameters by using the lifeline is very far from the estimated values using powerful methods for line doors, gave LTS- destined better results using standard MSE, and gave the M- estimator better results using standard MAPE. Moreover, we noticed that using standard MSAE, and MM- estimator is better. The programs S-plus (version 8.0, professional 2007), Minitab (version 13.2) and SPSS (version 17) are used to analyze the data.

Keywords: Robest, LTS, M estimate, MSE

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Authors: Maria Bonolo Mathevula

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Background: Children are important members of communities playing major role in the future of any given country (Pera, Fails, Gelsomini, &Garzotto, 2018). Visual Perceptual Skills (VPSs) in children are important health aspect of early childhood development through the Foundation Phases in school. Subsequently, children should undergo visual screening before commencement of schooling for early diagnosis ofVPSs anomalies because the primary role of VPSs is to capacitate children with academic performance in general. Aim : The aim of this study was to determine the anomalies of visual VPSs amongst school children in Foundation Phase. The study’s objectives were to determine the prevalence of VPSs anomalies amongst school children in Foundation Phase; Determine the relationship between children’s academic and VPSs anomalies; and to investigate the relationship between VPSs anomalies and refractive error. Methodology: This study was a mixed method whereby triangulated qualitative (interviews) and quantitative (questionnaire and clinical data) was used. This was, therefore, descriptive by nature. The study’s target population was school children in Foundation Phase. The study followed purposive sampling method. School children in Foundation Phase were purposively sampled to form part of this study provided their parents have given a signed the consent. Data was collected by the use of standardized interviews; questionnaire; clinical data card, and TVPS standard data card. Results: Although the study is still ongoing, the preliminary study outcome based on data collected from one of the Foundation Phases have suggested the following:While VPSs anomalies is not prevalent, it, however, have indirect relationship with children’s academic performance in Foundation phase; Notably, VPSs anomalies and refractive error are directly related since majority of children with refractive error, specifically compound hyperopic astigmatism, failed most subtests of TVPS standard tests. Conclusion: Based on the study’s preliminary findings, it was clear that optometrists still have a lot to do in as far as researching on VPSs is concerned. Furthermore, the researcher recommends that optometrist, as the primary healthcare professionals, should also conduct the school-readiness pre-assessment on children before commencement of their grades in Foundation phase.

Keywords: foundation phase, visual perceptual skills, school children, refractive error

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Liang Weichien

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Without adequate information and mitigation plan for natural disaster, the risk to urban populated areas will increase in the future as populations grow, especially in Taiwan. Taiwan is recognized as the world's high-risk areas, where an average of 5.7 times of floods occur per year should seek to strengthen coherence and consensus in how cities can plan for flood and climate change. Therefore, this study aims at understanding the vulnerability to flooding in Taipei city, Taiwan, by creating indicators and calculating the vulnerability of each study units. The indicators were grouped into sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the definition of vulnerability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The indicators were weighted by using Principal Component Analysis. However, current researches were based on the assumption that the composition and influence of the indicators were the same in different areas. This disregarded spatial correlation that might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerability. The study used Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis by adding geographic weighting matrix as weighting to get the different main flood impact characteristic in different areas. Cross Validation Method and Akaike Information Criterion were used to decide bandwidth and Gaussian Pattern as the bandwidth weight scheme. The ultimate outcome can be used for the reduction of damage potential by integrating the outputs into local mitigation plan and urban planning.

Keywords: flood vulnerability, geographically weighted principal components analysis, GWPCA, highly urbanized area, spatial correlation

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Chuang-Chun Chiou

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In this study, a systematic framework of graceful ageing has been used to explore the possible human resource utilization models for graceful ageing purpose. This framework is based on the Chinese culture. We call ‘Nine-old’ target. They are ageing gracefully with feeding, accomplishment, usefulness, learning, entertainment, care, protection, dignity, and termination. This study is focused on two areas: accomplishment and usefulness. We exam the current practices of initiatives and laws of promoting labor participation. That is to focus on how to increase Labor Force Participation Rate of the middle aged as well as the elderly and try to promote the elderly to achieve graceful ageing. Then we present the possible models that support graceful ageing.

Keywords: human resource utilization model, labor participation, graceful ageing, employment

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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Authors: Abdulrahman Sumayli, Saad M. AlShahrani

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For the hydrogenation process, knowing the solubility of hydrogen (H2) in hydrocarbons is critical to improve the efficiency of the process. We investigated the H2 solubility computation in four heavy crude oil feedstocks using machine learning techniques. Temperature, pressure, and feedstock type were considered as the inputs to the models, while the hydrogen solubility was the sole response. Specifically, we employed three different models: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and Bayesian ridge regression (BRR). To achieve the best performance, the hyper-parameters of these models are optimized using the whale optimization algorithm (WOA). We evaluated the models using a dataset of solubility measurements in various feedstocks, and we compared their performance based on several metrics. Our results show that the WOA-SVR model tuned with WOA achieves the best performance overall, with an RMSE of 1.38 × 10− 2 and an R-squared of 0.991. These findings suggest that machine learning techniques can provide accurate predictions of hydrogen solubility in different feedstocks, which could be useful in the development of hydrogen-related technologies. Besides, the solubility of hydrogen in the four heavy oil fractions is estimated in different ranges of temperatures and pressures of 150 ◦C–350 ◦C and 1.2 MPa–10.8 MPa, respectively

Keywords: temperature, pressure variations, machine learning, oil treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Hamidreza Hoshyarmanesh, Benjamin Durante, Alex Irwin, Sanju Lama, Kourosh Zareinia, Garnette R. Sutherland

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This study reports on a proposed method to evaluate the accuracy and precision of Excalibur I, a neurosurgery-specific haptic hand controller, designed and developed at Project neuroArm. Having an efficient and successful robot-assisted telesurgery is considerably contingent on how accurate and precise a haptic hand controller (master/local robot) would be able to interpret the kinematic indices of motion, i.e., position and orientation, from the surgeon’s upper limp to the slave/remote robot. A proposed test rig is designed and manufactured according to standard ASTM F2554-10 to determine the accuracy and precision range of Excalibur I at four different locations within its workspace: central workspace, extreme forward, far left and far right. The test rig is metrologically characterized by a coordinate measuring machine (accuracy and repeatability < ± 5 µm). Only the serial linkage of the haptic device is examined due to the use of the Structural Length Index (SLI). The results indicate that accuracy decreases by moving from the workspace central area towards the borders of the workspace. In a comparative study, Excalibur I performs on par with the PHANToM PremiumTM 3.0 and more accurate/precise than the PHANToM PremiumTM 1.5. The error in Cartesian coordinate system shows a dominant component in one direction (δx, δy or δz) for the movements on horizontal, vertical and inclined surfaces. The average error magnitude of three attempts is recorded, considering all three error components. This research is the first promising step to quantify the kinematic performance of Excalibur I.

Keywords: accuracy, advanced metrology, hand controller, precision, robot-assisted surgery, tele-operation, workspace

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: L. Grinis

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Turbulent flow in complex geometries receives considerable attention due to its importance in many engineering applications. It has been the subject of interest for many researchers. Some of these interests include the design of storm water channels. The design of these channels requires testing through physical models. The main practical limitation of physical models is the so called “scale effect”, that is, the fact that in many cases only primary physical mechanisms can be correctly represented, while secondary mechanisms are often distorted. These observations form the basis of our study, which centered on problems associated with the design of storm water channels near the Dead Sea, in Israel. To help reach a final design decision we used different physical models. Our research showed good coincidence with the results of laboratory tests and theoretical calculations, and allowed us to study different effects of fluid flow in an open channel. We determined that problems of this nature cannot be solved only by means of theoretical calculation and computer simulation. This study demonstrates the use of physical models to help resolve very complicated problems of fluid flow through baffles and similar structures. The study applies these models and observations to different construction and multiphase water flows, among them, those that include sand and stone particles, a significant attempt to bring to the testing laboratory a closer association with reality.

Keywords: open channel, physical modeling, baffles, turbulent flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

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There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone, least squares method, regression models

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Byeongcheol Kang, Junyi Kim, Hyungsik Jung, Hyungjun Yang, Jaewoo An, Jonggeun Choe

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It is important to figure out reservoir properties for better production management. Due to the limited information, there are geological uncertainties on very heterogeneous or channel reservoir. One of the solutions is to generate multiple equi-probable realizations using geostatistical methods. However, some models have wrong properties, which need to be excluded for simulation efficiency and reliability. We propose a novel method of model selection scheme, based on distance-based clustering for reliable application of production optimization algorithm. Distance is defined as a degree of dissimilarity between the data. We calculate Hausdorff distance to classify the models based on their similarity. Hausdorff distance is useful for shape matching of the reservoir models. We use multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) to describe the models on two dimensional space and group them by K-means clustering. Rather than simulating all models, we choose one representative model from each cluster and find out the best model, which has the similar production rates with the true values. From the process, we can select good reservoir models near the best model with high confidence. We make 100 channel reservoir models using single normal equation simulation (SNESIM). Since oil and gas prefer to flow through the sand facies, it is critical to characterize pattern and connectivity of the channels in the reservoir. After calculating Hausdorff distances and projecting the models by MDS, we can see that the models assemble depending on their channel patterns. These channel distributions affect operation controls of each production well so that the model selection scheme improves management optimization process. We use one of useful global search algorithms, particle swarm optimization (PSO), for our production optimization. PSO is good to find global optimum of objective function, but it takes too much time due to its usage of many particles and iterations. In addition, if we use multiple reservoir models, the simulation time for PSO will be soared. By using the proposed method, we can select good and reliable models that already matches production data. Considering geological uncertainty of the reservoir, we can get well-optimized production controls for maximum net present value. The proposed method shows one of novel solutions to select good cases among the various probabilities. The model selection schemes can be applied to not only production optimization but also history matching or other ensemble-based methods for efficient simulations.

Keywords: distance-based clustering, geological uncertainty, particle swarm optimization (PSO), production optimization

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Authors: Biruhi Tesfaye, Avinash M. Potdar

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The laboratory test process to determine the California bearing ratio (CBR) of black cotton soils is not only overpriced but also time-consuming as well. Hence advanced prediction of CBR plays a significant role as it is applicable In pavement design. The prediction of CBR of treated soil was executed by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) which is a Computational tool based on the properties of the biological neural system. To observe CBR values, combined eggshell and waste glass was added to soil as 4, 8, 12, and 16 % of the weights of the soil samples. Accordingly, the laboratory related tests were conducted to get the required best model. The maximum CBR value found at 5.8 at 8 % of eggshell waste glass powder addition. The model was developed using CBR as an output layer variable. CBR was considered as a function of the joint effect of liquid limit, plastic limit, and plastic index, optimum moisture content and maximum dry density. The best model that has been found was ANN with 5, 6 and 1 neurons in the input, hidden and output layer correspondingly. The performance of selected ANN has been 0.99996, 4.44E-05, 0.00353 and 0.0067 which are correlation coefficient (R), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) respectively. The research presented or summarized above throws light on future scope on stabilization with waste glass combined with different percentages of eggshell that leads to the economical design of CBR acceptable to pavement sub-base or base, as desired.

Keywords: CBR, artificial neural network, liquid limit, plastic limit, maximum dry density, OMC

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Authors: Chitresh Kumar, Santanu Gupta

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The research work intends to understand the process of initiation, planning and development of capital-intensive urban area level infrastructure development in East Asian Cities (specific to Indian Cities). With the onset of emphasis on sustainable urban transport, self-financed urban local bodies, it has become of utmost important to identify infrastructure and projects on a priority basis, which provide optimal utility to the urban area. Through identification of Spatial, Demographic and Socio-Economic and Political Instability Parameters and their trends for the past 60 years at the urban area and state level, the paper attempts to identify the most suitable time period when initiation of the project would become economically and demographically viable for the city.

Keywords: urban planning, regional planning, mass transit, infrastructure development, spatial planning

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Authors: Alemaw Kefale, Aramde Fetene, Hayal Desta

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Monitoring the amount of green space in urban areas is important for ensuring sustainable development and proper management. The study analyzed changes in urban green space coverage over the past 20 years in two rapidly urbanizing cities in Ethiopia, Debre Berhan and Debre Markos, using GIS and remote sensing. The researchers used Landsat 5 and 8 data with a spatial resolution of 30 m to determine different land use and land cover classes, including urban green spaces, barren and croplands, built-up areas, and water bodies. The classification accuracy ranged between 90% and 91.4%, with a Kappa Statistic of 0.85 to 0.88. The results showed that both cities experienced significant decreases in vegetation cover in their urban cores between 2000 and 2020, with radical changes observed from green spaces and croplands to built-up areas. In Debre Berhan, barren and croplands decreased by 32.96%, while built-up and green spaces increased by 357.9% and 37.4%, respectively, in 2020. In Debre Markos, built-up areas increased by 224.2%, while green spaces and barren and croplands decreased by 41% and 5.71%, respectively. The spatial structure of cities and planning policies were noticed as the major factors for big green cover change. Thus it has an implication for other rapidly urbanized cities in Africa and Asia. Overall, rapid urbanization threatens green spaces and agricultural areas, highlighting the need for ecological-based spatial planning in rapidly urbanizing cities.

Keywords: green space coverage, GIS and remote sensing, Landsat, LULC, Ethiopia

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Authors: Phawichsak Prapassornpitaya, Wanida Jinsart

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Daily monitoring PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ data from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed to provide baseline data for prediction of the air pollution in Bangkok in the period of 2018 -2020. Two statistical models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) were used to evaluate the trends of pollutions. The prediction concentrations were tested by root means square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (IOA). This evaluation of the traffic PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ were studied in association with the regulatory control and emission standard changes. The emission factors of particulate matter from diesel vehicles were decreased when applied higher number of euro standard. The trends of ambient air pollutions were expected to decrease. However, the Bangkok smog episode in February 2018 with temperature inversion caused high concentration of PM₂.₅ in the air environment of Bangkok. The impact of traffic pollutants was depended upon the emission sources, temperature variations, and metrological conditions.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, ARIMA, RMSE, Bangkok

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Authors: Mohammad J. Rezai, Fereshteh Davarpanah

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Producing a text in a language which is not one’s mother tongue can be a demanding task for language learners. Examining lexical errors committed by EFL learners is a challenging area of investigation which can shed light on the process of second language acquisition. Despite the considerable number of investigations into grammatical errors, few studies have tackled formal and semantic errors of lexis committed by EFL learners. The current study aimed at examining Persian learners’ formal and semantic errors of lexis in English. To this end, 60 students at three different proficiency levels were asked to write on 10 different topics in 10 separate sessions. Finally, 600 essays written by Persian EFL learners were collected, acting as the corpus of the study. An error taxonomy comprising formal and semantic errors was selected to analyze the corpus. The formal category covered misselection and misformation errors, while the semantic errors were classified into lexical, collocational and lexicogrammatical categories. Each category was further classified into subcategories depending on the identified errors. The results showed that there were 2583 errors in the corpus of 9600 words, among which, 2030 formal errors and 553 semantic errors were identified. The most frequent errors in the corpus included formal error commitment (78.6%), which were more prevalent at the advanced level (42.4%). The semantic errors (21.4%) were more frequent at the low intermediate level (40.5%). Among formal errors of lexis, the highest number of errors was devoted to misformation errors (98%), while misselection errors constituted 2% of the errors. Additionally, no significant differences were observed among the three semantic error subcategories, namely collocational, lexical choice and lexicogrammatical. The results of the study can shed light on the challenges faced by EFL learners in the second language acquisition process.

Keywords: collocational errors, lexical errors, Persian EFL learners, semantic errors

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Authors: A. Abdullah, S. Abushalmat, A. Bakshwain, A. Basuhail, A. Aslam

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GIS (Geographic Information System) applications require geo-referenced data, this data could be available as databases or in the form of digital or hard-copy agro-meteorological maps. These parameter maps are color-coded with different regions corresponding to different parameter values, converting these maps into a database is not very difficult. However, text and different planimetric elements overlaid on these maps makes an accurate image to database conversion a challenging problem. The reason being, it is almost impossible to exactly replace what was underneath the text or icons; thus, pointing to the need for inpainting. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic inpainting approach that uses the probability of spatial locality of colors in the map for replacing overlaid elements with underlying color. We tested the limits of our proposed technique using non-textual simulated data and compared text removing results with a popular image editing tool using public domain data with promising results.

Keywords: noise, image, GIS, digital map, inpainting

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Fang Ye, Han Yu, Yibing Li

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Radio interference is one of the major concerns in using the global positioning system (GPS) for civilian and military applications. Interference signals are produced not only through all electronic systems but also illegal jammers. Among different types of interferences, continuous wave (CW) interference has strong adverse impacts on the quality of the received signal. In this paper, we make more detailed analysis for CW interference effects on GPS signal quality. Based on the C/A code spectrum lines, the influence of CW interference on the acquisition performance of GPS receivers is further analysed. This influence is supported by simulation results using GPS software receiver. As the most important user parameter of GPS receivers, the mathematical expression of bit error probability is also derived in the presence of CW interference, and the expression is consistent with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The research on CW interference provides some theoretical gist and new thoughts on monitoring the radio noise environment and improving the anti-jamming ability of GPS receivers.

Keywords: GPS, CW interference, acquisition performance, bit error probability, Monte Carlo

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Authors: Arash Rahmani, Ahmad Ghanbari, Abbas Baghernezhad, Babak Safaei

Abstract:

In the design of parallel manipulators, usually mean value of a dexterity measure over the workspace volume is considered as the objective function to be used in optimization algorithms. The mentioned indexes in a hybrid parallel manipulator (HPM) are quite complicated to solve thanks to infinite solutions for every point within the workspace of the redundant manipulators. In this paper, spatial isotropic design axioms are extended as a well-known method for optimum design of manipulators. An upper limit for the isotropy measure of HPM is calculated and instead of computing and minimizing isotropy measure, minimizing the obtained limit is considered. To this end, two different objective functions are suggested which are obtained from objective functions of comprising modules. Finally, by using genetic algorithm (GA), the best geometric parameters for a specific hybrid parallel robot which is composed of two modified Gough-Stewart platforms (MGSP) are achieved.

Keywords: hybrid manipulator, spatial isotropy, genetic algorithm, optimum design

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Authors: Lin Dong, Fei Shi

Abstract:

Based on the railway network and the principles of space syntax, the study attempts to reconstruct the spatial relationship of the passenger network connections from space and time perspective. According to the travel time data of main stations in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration obtained by the Internet, the topological drawing of railway network under different time sections is constructed. With the comprehensive index composed of connection and integration, the accessibility and network operation efficiency of the railway network in different time periods is calculated, while the fairness of the network is analyzed by the fairness indicators constructed with the integration and location entropy from the perspective of horizontal and vertical fairness respectively. From the analysis of the efficiency and fairness of the railway passenger transport network, the study finds: (1) There is a strong regularity in regional system accessibility change; (2) The problems of efficiency and fairness are different in different time periods; (3) The improvement of efficiency will lead to the decline of horizontal fairness to a certain extent, while from the perspective of vertical fairness, the supply-demand situation has changed smoothly with time; (4) The network connection efficiency of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is higher than that of the western regions such as Anqing and Chizhou; (5) The marginalization of Nantong, Yancheng, Yangzhou, Taizhou is obvious. The study explores the application of spatial syntactic theory in regional traffic analysis, in order to provide a reference for the development of urban agglomeration transportation network.

Keywords: spatial syntax, the Yangtze River Delta, railway passenger time, efficiency and fairness

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Authors: Haowei Chen, Kaiqi Xiong

Abstract:

This paper aims to answer how malware will propagate in Wireless Mesh Networks (WMNs) and how communication radius and distributed density of nodes affects the process of spreading. The above analysis is essential for devising network-wide strategies to counter malware. We answer these questions by developing an improved dynamical system that models malware propagation in the area where nodes were uniformly distributed. The proposed model captures both the spatial and temporal dynamics regarding the malware spreading process. Equilibrium and stability are also discussed based on the threshold of the system. If the threshold is less than one, the infected nodes disappear, and if the threshold is greater than one, the infected nodes asymptotically stabilize at the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are investigated about communication radius and distributed density of nodes in WMNs, which allows us to draw various insights that can be used to guide security defense.

Keywords: Bluetooth security, malware propagation, wireless mesh networks, stability analysis

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Authors: Khen Cohen, Daniel Yankelevich, David Mendlovic, Dan Raviv

Abstract:

We present a 3D stereo system for high-resolution sensing in both the spatial and the temporal domains by combining a frame-based camera and an event-based camera. We establish a method to merge both devices into one unite system and introduce a calibration process, followed by a correspondence technique and interpolation algorithm for 3D reconstruction. We further provide quantitative analysis about our system in terms of depth resolution and additional parameter analysis. We show experimentally how our system performs temporal super-resolution up to effectively 1ms and can detect fast-moving objects and human micro-movements that can be used for micro-expression analysis. We also demonstrate how our method can extract colored events for an event-based camera without any degradation in the spatial resolution, compared to a colored filter array.

Keywords: DVS-CIS stereo vision, micro-movements, temporal super-resolution, 3D reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

Abstract:

Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

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Authors: Axel Thallemer, Aleksandar Kostadinov, Abel Fam, Alex Teo

Abstract:

For centuries, the forming processes in nature served as a source of inspiration for both architects and designers. It seems as most human artifacts are based on ideas which stem from the observation of the biological world and its principles of growth. As a fact, in the cultural history of Homo faber, materials have been mostly used in their solid state: From hand axe to computer mouse, the principle of employing matter has not changed ever since the first creation. In the scope of history only recently and by the help of additive-generative fabrication processes through Computer Aided Design (CAD), designers were enabled to deconstruct solid artifacts into an outer skin and an internal lattice structure. The intention behind this approach is to create a new topology which reduces resources and integrates functions into an additively manufactured component. However, looking at the currently employed lattice structures, it is very clear that those lattice structure geometries have not been thoroughly designed, but rather taken out of basic-geometry libraries which are usually provided by the CAD. In the here presented study, a group of 20 industrial design students created new and unique lattice structures using natural paragons as their models. The selected natural models comprise both the animate and inanimate world, with examples ranging from the spiraling of narwhal tusks, off-shooting of mangrove roots, minimal surfaces of soap bubbles, up to the rhythmical arrangement of molecular geometry, like in the case of SiOC (Carbon-Rich Silicon Oxicarbide). This ideation process leads to a design of a geometric cell, which served as a basic module for the lattice structure, whereby the cell was created in visual analogy to its respective natural model. The spatial lattices were fabricated additively in mostly [X]3 by [Y]3 by [Z]3 units’ volumes using selective powder bed melting in polyamide with (z-axis) 50 mm and 100 µm resolution and subdued to mechanical testing of their elastic zone in a biomedical laboratory. The results demonstrate that additively manufactured lattice structures can acquire different properties when they are designed in analogy to natural models. Several of the lattices displayed the ability to store and return kinetic energy, while others revealed a structural failure which can be exploited for purposes where a controlled collapse of a structure is required. This discovery allows for various new applications of functional lattice structures within industrially created objects.

Keywords: bio-inspired, biomimetic, lattice structures, additive manufacturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 145