Search results for: operation estimation
3385 The Role of Logistics Services in Influencing Customer Satisfaction and Reviews in an Online Marketplace
Authors: nafees mahbub, blake tindol, utkarsh shrivastava, kuanchin chen
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Online shopping has become an integral part of businesses today. Big players such as Amazon are setting the bar for delivery services, and many businesses are working towards meeting them. However, what happens if a seller underestimates or overestimates the delivery time? Does it translate to consumer comments, ratings, or lost sales? Although several prior studies have investigated the impact of poor logistics on customer satisfaction, that impact of under estimation of delivery times has been rarely considered. The study uses real-time customer online purchase data to study the impact of missed delivery times on satisfaction.Keywords: LOST SALES, DELIVERY TIME, CUSTOMER SATISFACTION, CUSTOMER REVIEWS
Procedia PDF Downloads 2143384 A Case Study on an Integrated Analysis of Well Control and Blow out Accident
Authors: Yasir Memon
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The complexity and challenges in the offshore industry are increasing more than the past. The oil and gas industry is expanding every day by accomplishing these challenges. More challenging wells such as longer and deeper are being drilled in today’s environment. Blowout prevention phenomena hold a worthy importance in oil and gas biosphere. In recent, so many past years when the oil and gas industry was growing drilling operation were extremely dangerous. There was none technology to determine the pressure of reservoir and drilling hence was blind operation. A blowout arises when an uncontrolled reservoir pressure enters in wellbore. A potential of blowout in the oil industry is the danger for the both environment and the human life. Environmental damage, state/country regulators, and the capital investment causes in loss. There are many cases of blowout in the oil the gas industry caused damage to both human and the environment. A huge capital investment is being in used to stop happening of blowout through all over the biosphere to bring damage at the lowest level. The objective of this study is to promote safety and good resources to assure safety and environmental integrity in all operations during drilling. This study shows that human errors and management failure is the main cause of blowout therefore proper management with the wise use of precautions, prevention methods or controlling techniques can reduce the probability of blowout to a minimum level. It also discusses basic procedures, concepts and equipment involved in well control methods and various steps using at various conditions. Furthermore, another aim of this study work is to highlight management role in oil gas operations. Moreover, this study analyze the causes of Blowout of Macondo well occurred in the Gulf of Mexico on April 20, 2010, and deliver the recommendations and analysis of various aspect of well control methods and also provides the list of mistakes and compromises that British Petroleum and its partner were making during drilling and well completion methods and also the Macondo well disaster happened due to various safety and development rules violation. This case study concludes that Macondo well blowout disaster could be avoided with proper management of their personnel’s and communication between them and by following safety rules/laws it could be brought to minimum environmental damage.Keywords: energy, environment, oil and gas industry, Macondo well accident
Procedia PDF Downloads 1873383 Application of Adaptive Particle Filter for Localizing a Mobile Robot Using 3D Camera Data
Authors: Maysam Shahsavari, Seyed Jamalaldin Haddadi
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There are several methods to localize a mobile robot such as relative, absolute and probabilistic. In this paper, particle filter due to its simple implementation and the fact that it does not need to know to the starting position will be used. This method estimates the position of the mobile robot using a probabilistic distribution, relying on a known map of the environment instead of predicting it. Afterwards, it updates this estimation by reading input sensors and control commands. To receive information from the surrounding world, distance to obstacles, for example, a Kinect is used which is much cheaper than a laser range finder. Finally, after explaining the Adaptive Particle Filter method and its implementation in detail, we will compare this method with the dead reckoning method and show that this method is much more suitable for situations in which we have a map of the environment.Keywords: particle filter, localization, methods, odometry, kinect
Procedia PDF Downloads 2693382 Matrix Completion with Heterogeneous Cost
Authors: Ilqar Ramazanli
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The matrix completion problem has been studied broadly under many underlying conditions. The problem has been explored under adaptive or non-adaptive, exact or estimation, single-phase or multi-phase, and many other categories. In most of these cases, the observation cost of each entry is uniform and has the same cost across the columns. However, in many real-life scenarios, we could expect elements from distinct columns or distinct positions to have a different cost. In this paper, we explore this generalization under adaptive conditions. We approach the problem under two different cost models. The first one is that entries from different columns have different observation costs, but within the same column, each entry has a uniform cost. The second one is any two entry has different observation cost, despite being the same or different columns. We provide complexity analysis of our algorithms and provide tightness guarantees.Keywords: matroid optimization, matrix completion, linear algebra, algorithms
Procedia PDF Downloads 1093381 A Novel PWM/PFM Controller for PSR Fly-Back Converter Using a New Peak Sensing Technique
Authors: Sanguk Nam, Van Ha Nguyen, Hanjung Song
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For low-power applications such as adapters for portable devices and USB chargers, the primary side regulation (PSR) fly-back converter is widely used in lieu of the conventional fly-back converter using opto-coupler because of its simpler structure and lower cost. In the literature, there has been studies focusing on the design of PSR circuit; however, the conventional sensing method in PSR circuit using RC delay has a lower accuracy as compared to the conventional fly-back converter using opto-coupler. In this paper, we propose a novel PWM/PFM controller using new sensing technique for the PSR fly-back converter which can control an accurate output voltage. The conventional PSR circuit can sense the output voltage information from the auxiliary winding to regulate the duty cycle of the clock that control the output voltage. In the sensing signal waveform, there has two transient points at time the voltage equals to Vout+VD and Vout, respectively. In other to sense the output voltage, the PSR circuit must detect the time at which the current of the diode at the output equals to zero. In the conventional PSR flyback-converter, the sensing signal at this time has a non-sharp-negative slope that might cause a difficulty in detecting the output voltage information since a delay of sensing signal or switching clock may exist which brings out an unstable operation of PSR fly-back converter. In this paper instead of detecting output voltage at a non-sharp-negative slope, a sharp-positive slope is used to sense the proper information of the output voltage. The proposed PRS circuit consists of a saw-tooth generator, a summing circuit, a sample and hold circuit and a peak detector. Besides, there is also the start-up circuit which protects the chip from high surge current when the converter is turned on. Additionally, to reduce the standby power loss, a second mode which operates in a low frequency is designed beside the main mode at high frequency. In general, the operation of the proposed PSR circuit can be summarized as following: At the time the output information is sensed from the auxiliary winding, a saw-tooth signal from the saw-tooth generator is generated. Then, both of these signals are summed using a summing circuit. After this process, the slope of the peak of the sensing signal at the time diode current is zero becomes positive and sharp that make the peak easy to detect. The output of the summing circuit then is fed into a peak detector and the sample and hold circuit; hence, the output voltage can be properly sensed. By this way, we can sense more accurate output voltage information and extend margin even circuit is delayed or even there is the existence of noise by using only a simple circuit structure as compared with conventional circuits while the performance can be sufficiently enhanced. Circuit verification was carried out using 0.35μm 700V Magnachip process. The simulation result of sensing signal shows a maximum error of 5mV under various load and line conditions which means the operation of the converter is stable. As compared to the conventional circuit, we achieved very small error only used analog circuits compare with conventional circuits. In this paper, a PWM/PFM controller using a simple and effective sensing method for PSR fly-back converter has been presented in this paper. The circuit structure is simple as compared with the conventional designs. The gained results from simulation confirmed the idea of the designKeywords: primary side regulation, PSR, sensing technique, peak detector, PWM/PFM control, fly-back converter
Procedia PDF Downloads 3383380 Application of Principal Component Analysis and Ordered Logit Model in Diabetic Kidney Disease Progression in People with Type 2 Diabetes
Authors: Mequanent Wale Mekonen, Edoardo Otranto, Angela Alibrandi
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Diabetic kidney disease is one of the main microvascular complications caused by diabetes. Several clinical and biochemical variables are reported to be associated with diabetic kidney disease in people with type 2 diabetes. However, their interrelations could distort the effect estimation of these variables for the disease's progression. The objective of the study is to determine how the biochemical and clinical variables in people with type 2 diabetes are interrelated with each other and their effects on kidney disease progression through advanced statistical methods. First, principal component analysis was used to explore how the biochemical and clinical variables intercorrelate with each other, which helped us reduce a set of correlated biochemical variables to a smaller number of uncorrelated variables. Then, ordered logit regression models (cumulative, stage, and adjacent) were employed to assess the effect of biochemical and clinical variables on the order-level response variable (progression of kidney function) by considering the proportionality assumption for more robust effect estimation. This retrospective cross-sectional study retrieved data from a type 2 diabetic cohort in a polyclinic hospital at the University of Messina, Italy. The principal component analysis yielded three uncorrelated components. These are principal component 1, with negative loading of glycosylated haemoglobin, glycemia, and creatinine; principal component 2, with negative loading of total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein; and principal component 3, with negative loading of high-density lipoprotein and a positive load of triglycerides. The ordered logit models (cumulative, stage, and adjacent) showed that the first component (glycosylated haemoglobin, glycemia, and creatinine) had a significant effect on the progression of kidney disease. For instance, the cumulative odds model indicated that the first principal component (linear combination of glycosylated haemoglobin, glycemia, and creatinine) had a strong and significant effect on the progression of kidney disease, with an effect or odds ratio of 0.423 (P value = 0.000). However, this effect was inconsistent across levels of kidney disease because the first principal component did not meet the proportionality assumption. To address the proportionality problem and provide robust effect estimates, alternative ordered logit models, such as the partial cumulative odds model, the partial adjacent category model, and the partial continuation ratio model, were used. These models suggested that clinical variables such as age, sex, body mass index, medication (metformin), and biochemical variables such as glycosylated haemoglobin, glycemia, and creatinine have a significant effect on the progression of kidney disease.Keywords: diabetic kidney disease, ordered logit model, principal component analysis, type 2 diabetes
Procedia PDF Downloads 393379 Application of Multilinear Regression Analysis for Prediction of Synthetic Shear Wave Velocity Logs in Upper Assam Basin
Authors: Triveni Gogoi, Rima Chatterjee
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Shear wave velocity (Vs) estimation is an important approach in the seismic exploration and characterization of a hydrocarbon reservoir. There are varying methods for prediction of S-wave velocity, if recorded S-wave log is not available. But all the available methods for Vs prediction are empirical mathematical models. Shear wave velocity can be estimated using P-wave velocity by applying Castagna’s equation, which is the most common approach. The constants used in Castagna’s equation vary for different lithologies and geological set-ups. In this study, multiple regression analysis has been used for estimation of S-wave velocity. The EMERGE module from Hampson-Russel software has been used here for generation of S-wave log. Both single attribute and multi attributes analysis have been carried out for generation of synthetic S-wave log in Upper Assam basin. Upper Assam basin situated in North Eastern India is one of the most important petroleum provinces of India. The present study was carried out using four wells of the study area. Out of these wells, S-wave velocity was available for three wells. The main objective of the present study is a prediction of shear wave velocities for wells where S-wave velocity information is not available. The three wells having S-wave velocity were first used to test the reliability of the method and the generated S-wave log was compared with actual S-wave log. Single attribute analysis has been carried out for these three wells within the depth range 1700-2100m, which corresponds to Barail group of Oligocene age. The Barail Group is the main target zone in this study, which is the primary producing reservoir of the basin. A system generated list of attributes with varying degrees of correlation appeared and the attribute with the highest correlation was concerned for the single attribute analysis. Crossplot between the attributes shows the variation of points from line of best fit. The final result of the analysis was compared with the available S-wave log, which shows a good visual fit with a correlation of 72%. Next multi-attribute analysis has been carried out for the same data using all the wells within the same analysis window. A high correlation of 85% has been observed between the output log from the analysis and the recorded S-wave. The almost perfect fit between the synthetic S-wave and the recorded S-wave log validates the reliability of the method. For further authentication, the generated S-wave data from the wells have been tied to the seismic and correlated them. Synthetic share wave log has been generated for the well M2 where S-wave is not available and it shows a good correlation with the seismic. Neutron porosity, density, AI and P-wave velocity are proved to be the most significant variables in this statistical method for S-wave generation. Multilinear regression method thus can be considered as a reliable technique for generation of shear wave velocity log in this study.Keywords: Castagna's equation, multi linear regression, multi attribute analysis, shear wave logs
Procedia PDF Downloads 2293378 Intensified Electrochemical H₂O₂ Synthesis and Highly Efficient Pollutant Removal Enabled by Nickel Oxides with Surface Engineered Facets and Vacancies
Authors: Wenjun Zhang, Thao Thi Le, Dongyup Shin, Jong Min Kim
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Electrochemical hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) synthesis holds significant promise for decentralized environmental remediation through the electro-Fenton process. However, challenges persist, such as the absence of robust electrocatalysts for the selective two-electron oxygen reduction reaction (2e⁻ ORR) and the high cost and sluggish kinetics of conventional electro-Fenton systems in treating highly concentrated wastewater. This study introduces an efficient water treatment system for removing substantial quantities of organic pollutants using an advanced electro-Fenton system coupled with a high-valent NiO catalyst. By employing a precipitation method involving crystal facet and cation vacancy engineering, a trivalent Ni (Ni³⁺)-rich NiO catalyst with a (111)-domain-exposed crystal facet, named {111}-NivO, was synthesized. This catalyst exhibited a remarkable 96% selectivity and a high mass activity of 59 A g⁻¹ for H₂O₂ production, outperforming all previously reported Ni-based catalysts. Furthermore, an advanced electro-Fenton system, integrated with a flow cell for electrochemical H₂O₂ production, was utilized to achieve 100% removal of 50 ppm bisphenol A (BPA) in 200 mL of wastewater under heavy-duty conditions, reaching a superior rapid degradation rate (4 min, k = 1.125 min⁻¹), approximately 102 times faster than the conventional electro-Fenton system. The hyper-efficiency is attributed to the continuous and appropriate supply of H₂O₂, the provision of O₂, and the timely recycling of the electrolyte under high current density operation. This catalyst also demonstrated a 93% removal of total organic carbon after 2 hours of operation and can be applied for efficient removal of highly concentrated phenol pollutants from aqueous systems, which opens new avenues for wastewater treatment.Keywords: hydrogen peroxide production, nickel oxides, crystal facet and cation vacancy engineering, wastewater treatment, flow cell, electro-Fenton
Procedia PDF Downloads 593377 QCARNet: Networks for Quality-Adaptive Compression Artifact
Authors: Seung Ho Park, Young Su Moon, Nam Ik Cho
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We propose a convolution neural network (CNN) for quality adaptive compression artifact reduction named QCARNet. The proposed method is different from the existing discriminative models that learn a specific model at a certain quality level. The method is composed of a quality estimation CNN (QECNN) and a compression artifact reduction CNN (CARCNN), which are two functionally separate CNNs. By connecting the QECNN and CARCNN, each CARCNN layer is able to adaptively reduce compression artifacts and preserve details depending on the estimated quality level map generated by the QECNN. We experimentally demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better performance compared to other state-of-the-art blind compression artifact reduction methods.Keywords: compression artifact reduction, deblocking, image denoising, image restoration
Procedia PDF Downloads 1413376 Solution for Rider Ring Wear Problem in Boil off Gas Reciprocating Compressor: A Case Study
Authors: Hessam Mortezaei, Saeid Joudakian
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In this paper, the wear problem on rider rings of boil off gas compressor has been studied. This kind of oil free double acting compressor has free floating piston (FFP) technology and as a result of that it should have the lowest possible wear on its rider rings. But a design problem had caused a complete wear of rider rings after one month of continuous operation. In this case study, the source of this problem was recognized and solved.Keywords: piston rider, rings, gas distribution, pressure wear
Procedia PDF Downloads 3663375 The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Current Account Deficit: The Turkish Case
Authors: E. Selçuk, Z. Karaçor, P. Yardımcı
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Trade liberalization and its effects on the economies of developing countries have been investigated by many different studies, and some of them have focused on its impact on the current account balance. Turkey, as being one of the countries, which has liberalized its foreign trade in the 1980s, also needs to be studied in terms of the impact of liberalization on current account deficits. Therefore, the aim of this study is to find out whether trade liberalization has affected Turkey’s trade and current account balances. In order to determine this, yearly data of Turkey from 1980 to 2013 is used. As liberalization dummy, the year 1989, which was set for Turkey, is selected. Structural break test and model estimation results show that trade liberalization has a negative impact on trade balance but do not have a significant impact on the current account balance.Keywords: budget deficit, liberalization, Turkish economy, current account
Procedia PDF Downloads 3813374 Comparison of MODIS-Based Rice Extent Map and Landsat-Based Rice Classification Map in Determining Biomass Energy Potential of Rice Hull in Nueva Ecija, Philippines
Authors: Klathea Sevilla, Marjorie Remolador, Bryan Baltazar, Imee Saladaga, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion Ang
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The underutilization of biomass resources in the Philippines, combined with its growing population and the rise in fossil fuel prices confirms demand for alternative energy sources. The goal of this paper is to provide a comparison of MODIS-based and Landsat-based agricultural land cover maps when used in the estimation of rice hull’s available energy potential. Biomass resource assessment was done using mathematical models and remote sensing techniques employed in a GIS platform.Keywords: biomass, geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing, renewable energy
Procedia PDF Downloads 4813373 Application of the Discrete Rationalized Haar Transform to Distributed Parameter System
Authors: Joon-Hoon Park
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In this paper the rationalized Haar transform is applied for distributed parameter system identification and estimation. A distributed parameter system is a dynamical and mathematical model described by a partial differential equation. And system identification concerns the problem of determining mathematical models from observed data. The Haar function has some disadvantages of calculation because it contains irrational numbers, for these reasons the rationalized Haar function that has only rational numbers. The algorithm adopted in this paper is based on the transform and operational matrix of the rationalized Haar function. This approach provides more convenient and efficient computational results.Keywords: distributed parameter system, rationalized Haar transform, operational matrix, system identification
Procedia PDF Downloads 5093372 Application of Harris Hawks Optimization Metaheuristic Algorithm and Random Forest Machine Learning Method for Long-Term Production Scheduling Problem under Uncertainty in Open-Pit Mines
Authors: Kamyar Tolouei, Ehsan Moosavi
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In open-pit mines, the long-term production scheduling optimization problem (LTPSOP) is a complicated problem that contains constraints, large datasets, and uncertainties. Uncertainty in the output is caused by several geological, economic, or technical factors. Due to its dimensions and NP-hard nature, it is usually difficult to find an ideal solution to the LTPSOP. The optimal schedule generally restricts the ore, metal, and waste tonnages, average grades, and cash flows of each period. Past decades have witnessed important measurements of long-term production scheduling and optimal algorithms since researchers have become highly cognizant of the issue. In fact, it is not possible to consider LTPSOP as a well-solved problem. Traditional production scheduling methods in open-pit mines apply an estimated orebody model to produce optimal schedules. The smoothing result of some geostatistical estimation procedures causes most of the mine schedules and production predictions to be unrealistic and imperfect. With the expansion of simulation procedures, the risks from grade uncertainty in ore reserves can be evaluated and organized through a set of equally probable orebody realizations. In this paper, to synthesize grade uncertainty into the strategic mine schedule, a stochastic integer programming framework is presented to LTPSOP. The objective function of the model is to maximize the net present value and minimize the risk of deviation from the production targets considering grade uncertainty simultaneously while satisfying all technical constraints and operational requirements. Instead of applying one estimated orebody model as input to optimize the production schedule, a set of equally probable orebody realizations are applied to synthesize grade uncertainty in the strategic mine schedule and to produce a more profitable and risk-based production schedule. A mixture of metaheuristic procedures and mathematical methods paves the way to achieve an appropriate solution. This paper introduced a hybrid model between the augmented Lagrangian relaxation (ALR) method and the metaheuristic algorithm, the Harris Hawks optimization (HHO), to solve the LTPSOP under grade uncertainty conditions. In this study, the HHO is experienced to update Lagrange coefficients. Besides, a machine learning method called Random Forest is applied to estimate gold grade in a mineral deposit. The Monte Carlo method is used as the simulation method with 20 realizations. The results specify that the progressive versions have been considerably developed in comparison with the traditional methods. The outcomes were also compared with the ALR-genetic algorithm and ALR-sub-gradient. To indicate the applicability of the model, a case study on an open-pit gold mining operation is implemented. The framework displays the capability to minimize risk and improvement in the expected net present value and financial profitability for LTPSOP. The framework could control geological risk more effectively than the traditional procedure considering grade uncertainty in the hybrid model framework.Keywords: grade uncertainty, metaheuristic algorithms, open-pit mine, production scheduling optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 1053371 Current Drainage Attack Correction via Adjusting the Attacking Saw-Function Asymmetry
Authors: Yuri Boiko, Iluju Kiringa, Tet Yeap
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Current drainage attack suggested previously is further studied in regular settings of closed-loop controlled Brushless DC (BLDC) motor with Kalman filter in the feedback loop. Modeling and simulation experiments are conducted in a Matlab environment, implementing the closed-loop control model of BLDC motor operation in position sensorless mode under Kalman filter drive. The current increase in the motor windings is caused by the controller (p-controller in our case) affected by false data injection of substitution of the angular velocity estimates with distorted values. Operation of multiplication to distortion coefficient, values of which are taken from the distortion function synchronized in its periodicity with the rotor’s position change. A saw function with a triangular tooth shape is studied herewith for the purpose of carrying out the bias injection with current drainage consequences. The specific focus here is on how the asymmetry of the tooth in the saw function affects the flow of current drainage. The purpose is two-fold: (i) to produce and collect the signature of an asymmetric saw in the attack for further pattern recognition process, and (ii) to determine conditions of improving stealthiness of such attack via regulating asymmetry in saw function used. It is found that modification of the symmetry in the saw tooth affects the periodicity of current drainage modulation. Specifically, the modulation frequency of the drained current for a fully asymmetric tooth shape coincides with the saw function modulation frequency itself. Increasing the symmetry parameter for the triangle tooth shape leads to an increase in the modulation frequency for the drained current. Moreover, such frequency reaches the switching frequency of the motor windings for fully symmetric triangular shapes, thus becoming undetectable and improving the stealthiness of the attack. Therefore, the collected signatures of the attack can serve for attack parameter identification via the pattern recognition route.Keywords: bias injection attack, Kalman filter, BLDC motor, control system, closed loop, P-controller, PID-controller, current drainage, saw-function, asymmetry
Procedia PDF Downloads 803370 Cooperative AF Scheme for Multi Source and Terminal in Edge of Cell Coverage
Authors: Myoung-Jin Kim, Chang-Bin Ha, Yeong-Seop Ahn, Hyoung-Kyu Song
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This paper proposes a cooperative communication scheme for improve wireless communication performance. When the receiver is located in the edge of coverage, the signal from the transmitter is distorted for various reasons such as inter-cell interference (ICI), power reduction, incorrect channel estimation. In order to improve communication performance, the proposed scheme adds the relay. By the relay, the receiver has diversity gain. In this paper, two base stations, one relay and one destination are considered. The two base stations transmit same time to relay and destination. The relay forwarding to destination and the destination detects signals.Keywords: cooperative communication, diversity gain, OFDM, MMSE
Procedia PDF Downloads 3903369 Fault Detection and Isolation in Attitude Control Subsystem of Spacecraft Formation Flying Using Extended Kalman Filters
Authors: S. Ghasemi, K. Khorasani
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In this paper, the problem of fault detection and isolation in the attitude control subsystem of spacecraft formation flying is considered. In order to design the fault detection method, an extended Kalman filter is utilized which is a nonlinear stochastic state estimation method. Three fault detection architectures, namely, centralized, decentralized, and semi-decentralized are designed based on the extended Kalman filters. Moreover, the residual generation and threshold selection techniques are proposed for these architectures.Keywords: component, formation flight of satellites, extended Kalman filter, fault detection and isolation, actuator fault
Procedia PDF Downloads 4363368 A New Method for Estimating the Mass Recession Rate for Ablator Systems
Authors: Bianca A. Szasz, Keiichi Okuyama
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As the human race will continue to explore the space by creating new space transportation means and sending them to other planets, the enhance of atmospheric reentry study is crucial. In this context, an analysis of mass recession rate of ablative materials for thermal shields of reentry spacecrafts is important to be carried out. The paper describes a new estimation method for calculating the mass recession of an ablator system, this method combining an old method with a new one, which was recently elaborated by Okuyama et al. The space mission of USERS spacecraft is taken as a case study and the possibility of implementing lighter ablative materials in future space missions is taking into consideration.Keywords: ablator system, mass recession, reentry spacecraft, ablative materials
Procedia PDF Downloads 2733367 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison
Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde
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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest
Procedia PDF Downloads 2313366 A Multi Function Myocontroller for Upper Limb Prostheses
Authors: Ayad Asaad Ibrahim
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Myoelectrically controlled prostheses are becoming more and more popular, for below-elbow amputation, the wrist flexor and extensor muscle group, while for above-elbow biceps and triceps brachii muscles are used for control of the prosthesis. A two site multi-function controller is presented. Two stainless steel bipolar electrode pairs are used to monitor the activities in both muscles. The detected signals are processed by new pre-whitening technique to identify the accurate tension estimation in these muscles. These estimates will activate the relevant prosthesis control signal, with a time constant of 200 msec. It is ensured that the tension states in the control muscle to activate a particular prosthesis function are similar to those used to activate normal functions in the natural hand. This facilitates easier training.Keywords: prosthesis, biosignal processing, pre-whitening, myoelectric controller
Procedia PDF Downloads 3633365 Analysis of Flux-Linkage Performance of DFIG by Using Simulink under Different Types of Faults and Locations
Authors: Mohamed Moustafa Mahmoud Sedky
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The double-fed induction generator wind turbine has recently received a great attention. The steady state performance and response of double fed induction generator (DFIG) based wind turbine are now well understood. This paper presents the analysis of stator and rotor flux linkage dq models operation of DFIG under different faults and at different locations.Keywords: double fed induction motor, wind energy, flux linkage, short circuit
Procedia PDF Downloads 5883364 Water Injection in order to Enhanced Oil Recovery
Authors: Hooman Fallah, Fatemeh Karampour
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Low salinity water (LSW) has been proved to be efficacious because of low cost and ability to change properties of reservoir rock and fluids and their interactions toward desired condition. These include change in capillary pressure, interfacial tension, wettability tendency, permeability and pore sizing. This enhanced oil recovery (EOR) method has been studied so far for evaluating capability of inducing recent mentioned parameters and the mechanisms of its operation and applicabi-lity in different fields. This study investigates the effect of three types of salts (including Ca2+, Mg2+, and SO42-) on wettability and final oil recovery in labratory.Keywords: low salinity water, smart water, wettability alteration, carbonated reservoir
Procedia PDF Downloads 3113363 Estimation of the Pore Electrical Conductivity Using Dielectric Sensors
Authors: Fethi Bouksila, Magnus Persson, Ronny Berndtsson, Akissa Bahri
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Under salinity conditions, we evaluate the performance of Hilhost (2000) model to predict pore electrical conductivity ECp from dielectric permittivity and bulk electrical conductivity (ECa) using Time and Frequency Domain Reflectometry sensors (TDR, FDR). Using FDR_WET sensor, RMSE of ECp was 4.15 dS m-1. By replacing the standard soil parameter (K0) in Hilhost model by K0-ECa relationship, the RMSE of ECp decreased to 0.68 dS m-1. WET sensor could give similar accuracy to estimate ECp than TDR if calibrated values of K0 were used instead of standard values in Hilhost model.Keywords: hilhost model, soil salinity, time domain reflectometry, frequency domain reflectometry, dielectric methods
Procedia PDF Downloads 1353362 Currency Exchange Rate Forecasts Using Quantile Regression
Authors: Yuzhi Cai
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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling
Procedia PDF Downloads 2563361 How Do Crisis Affect Economic Policy?
Authors: Eva Kotlánová
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After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.Keywords: economic crises in Europe, economic policy, uncertainty, panel analysis regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 3863360 Round Addition DFA on Lightweight Block Ciphers with On-The-Fly Key Schedule
Authors: Hideki Yoshikawa, Masahiro Kaminaga, Arimitsu Shikoda, Toshinori Suzuki
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Round addition differential fault analysis (DFA) using operation bypassing for lightweight block ciphers with on-the-fly key schedule is presented. For 64-bit KLEIN and 64-bit LED, it is shown that only a pair of correct ciphertext and faulty ciphertext can derive the secret master key. For PRESENT, one correct ciphertext and two faulty ciphertexts are required to reconstruct the secret key.Keywords: differential fault analysis (DFA), round addition, block cipher, on-the-fly key schedule
Procedia PDF Downloads 7033359 Consideration of Uncertainty in Engineering
Authors: A. Mohammadi, M. Moghimi, S. Mohammadi
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Engineers need computational methods which could provide solutions less sensitive to the environmental effects, so the techniques should be used which take the uncertainty to account to control and minimize the risk associated with design and operation. In order to consider uncertainty in engineering problem, the optimization problem should be solved for a suitable range of the each uncertain input variable instead of just one estimated point. Using deterministic optimization problem, a large computational burden is required to consider every possible and probable combination of uncertain input variables. Several methods have been reported in the literature to deal with problems under uncertainty. In this paper, different methods presented and analyzed.Keywords: uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulated, stochastic programming, scenario method
Procedia PDF Downloads 4143358 Financial Literacy in Greek High-School Students
Authors: Vasiliki A. Tzora, Nikolaos D. Philippas
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The paper measures the financial literacy of youth in Greece derived from the examined aspects of financial knowledge, behaviours, and attitudes that high school students performed. The findings reveal that less than half of participant high school students have an acceptable level of financial literacy. Also, students who are in the top of their class cohort exhibit higher levels of financial literacy. We also find that the father’s education level has a significant effect on financial literacy. Students who keep records of their income and expenses are likely to show better levels of financial literacy than students who do not. Students’ perception/estimation of their parents’ income changes is also related to their levels of financial literacy. We conclude that financial education initiatives should be embedded in schools in order to embrace the young generation.Keywords: financial literacy, financial knowledge, financial behaviour, financial attitude, financial wellbeing, 15-year-old students
Procedia PDF Downloads 1423357 Urban Design via Estimation Model for Traffic Index of Cities Based on an Artificial Intelligence
Authors: Seyed Sobhan Alvani, Mohammad Gohari
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By developing cities and increasing the population, traffic congestion has become a vital problem. Due to this crisis, urban designers try to present solutions to decrease this difficulty. On the other hand, predicting the model with perfect accuracy is essential for solution-providing. The current study presents a model based on artificial intelligence which can predict traffic index based on city population, growth rate, and area. The accuracy of the model was evaluated, which is acceptable and it is around 90%. Thus, urban designers and planners can employ it for predicting traffic index in the future to provide strategies.Keywords: traffic index, population growth rate, cities wideness, artificial neural network
Procedia PDF Downloads 413356 Predatory Pricing at Services Markets: Incentives, Mechanisms, Standards of Proving, and Remedies
Authors: Mykola G. Boichuk
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The paper concerns predatory pricing incentives and mechanisms in the markets of services, as well as its anti-competitive effects. As cost estimation at services markets is more complex in comparison to markets of goods, predatory pricing is more difficult to detect in the provision of services. For instance, this is often the case for professional services, which is analyzed in the paper. The special attention is given to employment markets as de-facto main supply markets for professional services markets. Also, the paper concerns such instances as travel agents' services, where predatory pricing may have implications not only on competition but on a wider range of public interest as well. Thus, the paper develops on effective ways to apply competition law rules on predatory pricing to the provision of services.Keywords: employment markets, predatory pricing, services markets, unfair competition
Procedia PDF Downloads 326