Search results for: Black-Scholes model

Authors: Angelina Chiglintseva, Vladislav Shagapov

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We know from the geological data that quite sufficient gas reserves are concentrated in hydrates that occur on the Earth and on the ocean floor. Therefore, the development of these sources of energy and the storage of large reserves of gas hydrates is an acute global problem. An advanced technology for utilizing gas is to store it in a gas-hydrate state. Under natural conditions, storage facilities can be established, e.g., in underground reservoirs, where quite large volumes of gas can be conserved compared with reservoirs of pure gas. An analysis of the available experimental data of the kinetics and the mechanism of the gas-hydrate formation process shows the self-conservation effect that allows gas to be stored at negative temperatures and low values of pressures of up to several atmospheres. A theoretical model has been constructed for the gas-hydrate reservoir that represents a unique natural chemical reactor, and the principal possibility of the full extraction of gas from a hydrate due to the thermal reserves of the reservoirs themselves and the surrounding rocks has been analyzed. The influence exerted on the evolution of a gas hydrate reservoir by the reservoir thicknesses and the parameters that determine its initial state (a temperature, pressure, hydrate saturation) has been studied. It has been established that the shortest time of exploitation required by the reservoirs with a thickness of a few meters for the total hydrate decomposition is recorded in the cyclic regime when gas extraction alternated with the subsequent conservation of the gas hydrate deposit. The study was performed by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (project No.15-11-20022).

Keywords: conservation, equilibrium state, gas hydrate reservoir, rocks

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Manirath Wongsim

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AIS plays an important role in business management, strategic and can provide assistance in all phases of decision making. Thus, many organisations needs to be seen as well adopting AIS, which is critical to a company in order to organise, manage and operate process in all sections. In order to implement AIS successfully, it is important to understand the underlying factors that influence the AIS adoption. Therefore, this research intends to study this perspective of factors influence and impact on AIS adoption’s success. The model has been designed to illustrate factors influences in AIS adoption. It also attempts to identify the critical success factors that organisations should focus on, to ensure the adoption on accounting process. This framework will be developed from case studies by collecting qualitative and quantitative data. Case study and survey methodology were adopted for this research. Case studies in two Thai- organisations were carried out. The results of the two main case studies suggested 9 factors that may have impact on in AIS adoption. Survey instrument was developed based on the findings from case studies. Two large-scale surveys were sent to selected members of Thailand Accountant, and Thailand Computer Society to further develop and test the research framework. The top three critical factors for ensuring AIS adoption were: top management commitment, steering committees, and Technical capability of AIS personnel. That is, it is now clear which factors impact in AIS adoption, and which of those factors are critical success factors for ensuring AIS adoption successes

Keywords: accounting information system, accounting information systems adoption, and inflecting AIS adoption

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed

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Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.

Keywords: roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: M. Hadi Kusuma, Nandy Putra, Anhar Riza Antariksawan, Ficky Augusta Imawan

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Heat pipe is considered to be applied as a passive system to remove residual heat that generated from reactor core when incident occur or from spent fuel storage pool. The objectives are to characterized the heat transfer phenomena, performance of heat pipe, and as a model for large heat pipe will be applied as passive cooling system on nuclear spent fuel pool storage. In this experimental wickless heat pipe or two-phase closed thermosyphon (TPCT) is used. Variation of heat flux are 611.24 Watt/m² - 3291.29 Watt/m². Variation of filling ratio are 45 - 70%. Variation of initial pressure are -62 to -74 cm Hg. Demineralized water is used as working fluid in the TPCT. The results showed that increasing of heat load leads to an increase of evaporation of the working fluid. The optimum filling ratio obtained for 60% of TPCT evaporator volume, and initial pressure variation gave different TPCT wall temperature characteristic. TPCT showed best performance with 60% filling ratio and can be consider to be applied as passive residual heat removal system or passive cooling system on spent fuel storage pool.

Keywords: two-phase closed term syphon, heat pipe, passive cooling, spent fuel storage pool

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Authors: Ogan Karabas, Suleyman Yigit

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Number of blade and blade type of centrifugal fans are the most decisive factor on the field of application, noise level, suction pressure and outlet mass flow rate. Nowadays, in order to determine these effects on centrifugal fans, numerical studies are carried out in addition to experimental studies. In this study, it is aimed to numerically investigate the changes of suction pressure and outlet mass flow rate values of a centrifugal fan according to the number of blade and blade type. Centrifugal fans of the same size with forward, backward and straight blade type were analyzed by using a simulation program and compared with each other. This analysis was carried out under steady state condition by selecting k-Ɛ turbulence model and air is assumed incompressible. Then, 16, 32 and 48 blade centrifugal fans were again analyzed by using same simulation program, and the optimum number of blades was determined for the suction pressure and the outlet mass flow rate. According to the results of the analysis, it was obtained that the suction pressure in the 32 blade fan was twice the value obtained in the 16 blade fan. In addition, the outlet mass flow rate increased by 45% with the increase in the number of blade from 16 to 32. There is no significant change observed on the suction pressure and outlet mass flow rate when the number of blades increased from 32 to 48. In the light of the analysis results, the optimum blade number was determined as 32.

Keywords: blade type, centrifugal fan, cfd, outlet mass flow rate, suction pressure

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Authors: Osei Kwabena Brefo

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The Germany takeover regulations mandate the minimum offer price to be set in accordance with section 31 (1) of the WpÜG. To safeguard this right of the shareholders, the WpÜG contains minimum price regulations that are based on the fundamental principle of equal treatment of shareholders. The minimum offer price is determined based on the maximum of either the highest price the bidder has offered other shareholders within the last six months (§ 4 WpÜG) or the three-month weighted average stock price (§ 5 Abs. 1 WpÜG) before the announcement of the offer. This study provides the first empirical evidence on differences between setting the minimum offer price based on the highest price paid to another shareholder within the last six months (“6MH offers”) as against the three-month weighted average stock before the announcement of the offer (“VWAP offers”) in terms of their impact on acquisition outcome. Using a sample of 358 acquisitions announced between 2004 and 2023, the study finds that the market and legal minimum premium in 6MH offers are significantly lower than three-month weighted average stock price offers. The study also employed Propensity Score Matching and endogenous Linear regression model to address for endogeneity concerns. Consistent with the Ordinary Least Square estimation, the study finds that after controlling for self-selection bias, market and legal premiums in 6MH offers are significantly lower than VWAP offers.

Keywords: mergers and acquisition, offer premium, minimum price regulation, takeover regulation

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Authors: Martha Wilson

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With the peak of Computer-Assisted Language Learning slowly coming to pass and Mobile-Assisted Language Learning, at times, a bit lacking in the communicative department, we are now faced with a challenging question: How can we engage the interest of our digital native students and, most importantly, sustain it? As previously mentioned, our classrooms are now experiencing an influx of “digital natives” – people who have grown up using and having unlimited access to technology. While modernizing our curriculum and digitalizing our classrooms are necessary in order to accommodate this new learning style, it is a huge financial burden and a massive undertaking for language institutes. Instead, opting for a more compact, simple, yet multidimensional pedagogical tool may be the solution to the issue at hand. This paper aims to give a brief overview into an existing device referred to as Student Response Systems (SRS) and to expand on this notion to include a new prototype of response system that will be designed as a mobile application to eliminate the need for costly hardware and software. Additionally, an analysis into recent attempts by other institutes to develop the Mobile Response System (MRS) and customer reviews of the existing MRSs will be provided, as well as the lessons learned from those projects. Finally, while the new model of MRS is still in its infancy stage, this paper will discuss the implications of incorporating such an application as a tool to support and to enrich traditional techniques and also offer practical classroom applications with the existing response systems that are immediately available on the market.

Keywords: app, clickers, mobile app, mobile response system, student response system

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Parya Salimitari, Farhad Tabatabai Ghomsheh, Siyamak Khorramymehr, Hossein Taghadosi, Mohammad Hossein Dashti

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of heel height on the knee joint direction in Genu recurvatum patients compared to normal state. The test was performed on a patient with Genu recurvatum and a healthy person with similar and match biomechanical conditions. Subjects were tested under six different positions of shoes with heels 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cm after marking during the gate. The results of the spatial temporal geometry obtained from Vicon Motion System (six-camera T10 model, Oxford Metrics Ltd., Oxford, UK), and were used to compute and analyze the kinematic results. In this study, we tried to determine the effect of shoe heel intervention on knee joint direction correction. The results indicate that the 1 cm heel has been optimized and significantly improved in knee joint flexion and flexion-extension angle so that the difference in knee flexion-extension angle between the patient and the healthy person at some stages of walking has reached zero (good posture). The 3 cm heel compared with the 0 cm heel has reduced the knee recurvatum index (KRI) by up to 21.74% in the patient (from 219.233 mm to 47.6714 mm). According to the findings of this study, it can be concluded that heel increase is effective in correcting knee joints in Genu recurvatum and the optimum heel height is 1 cm.

Keywords: joint alignment of knee, gait analysis, genu recurvatum, heel lift, kinematics, motion-analysis

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Authors: Raymond Xu, Cindy Jingru Wang

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Social media has become a globally connected and influencing platform. Social media data, such as tweets, can help predict the spread of pandemics and provide individuals and healthcare providers early warnings. Public psychological reactions and opinions can be efficiently monitored by AI models on the progression of dominant topics on Twitter. However, statistics show that as the coronavirus spreads, so does an infodemic of misinformation due to pandemic-related factors such as unemployment and lockdowns. Social media algorithms are often biased toward outrage by promoting content that people have an emotional reaction to and are likely to engage with. This can influence users’ attitudes and cause confusion. Therefore, social media is a double-edged sword. Combating fake news and biased content has become one of the essential tasks. This research analyzes the variety of methods used for fake news detection covering random forest, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision tree, naive Bayes, BoW, TF-IDF, LDA, CNN, RNN, LSTM, DeepFake, and hierarchical attention network. The performance of each method is analyzed. Based on these models’ achievements and limitations, a multi-dimensional AI framework is proposed to achieve higher accuracy in infodemic detection, especially pandemic-related news. The model is trained on contextual content, images, and news metadata.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, fake news detection, infodemic detection, image recognition, sentiment analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: P. Makendran, M. Pragadeesh, N. Narash, N. Manikandan, A. Rajasri, V. Sanal Kumar

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The growing severity of government-obligatory emissions legislation has required continuous improvement in catalysts performance and the associated reactor systems. IC engines emit a lot of harmful gases into the atmosphere. These gases are toxic in nature and a catalytic converter is used to convert these toxic gases into less harmful gases. The catalytic converter converts these gases by Oxidation and reduction reaction. Stoichiometric engines usually use the three-way catalyst (TWC) for simultaneously destroying all of the emissions. CO and NO react to form CO2 and N2 over one catalyst, and the remaining CO and HC are oxidized in a subsequent one. Literature review reveals that typically precious metals are used as a catalyst. The actual reactor is composed of a washcoated honeycomb-style substrate, with the catalyst being contained in the washcoat. The main disadvantage of a catalytic converter is that it exerts a back pressure to the exhaust gases while entering into them. The objective of this paper is to optimize the back pressure developed by the catalytic converter through geometric optimization of catalystic converter. This can be achieved by designing a catalyst with a optimum cone angle and a more surface area of the catalyst substrate. Additionally, the arrangement of the pores in the catalyst substrate can be changed. The numerical studies have been carried out using k-omega turbulence model with varying inlet angle of the catalytic converter and the length of the catalyst substrate. We observed that the geometry optimization is a meaningful objective for the lucrative design optimization of a catalytic converter for industrial applications.

Keywords: catalytic converter, emission control, reactor systems, substrate for emission control

Procedia PDF Downloads 908

Authors: Mohsen Noroozi, Maryam Khalili

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Creating cities, objects and spaces that are economically, environmentally and socially sustainable and which meet the challenge of social interaction and generation change will be one of the biggest tasks of designers. Social sustainability is about how individuals, communities and societies live with each other and set out to achieve the objectives of development model which they have chosen for themselves. Urban lightning as one of the most important elements of urban furniture that people constantly interact with it in public spaces; can be a significant object for designers. Using intelligence by internet of things for urban lighting makes it more interactive in public environments. It can encourage individuals to carry out appropriate behaviors and provides them the social awareness through new interactions. The greatest strength of this technology is its strong impact on many aspects of everyday life and users' behaviors. The analytical phase of the research is based on a multiple method survey strategy. Smart lighting proposed in this paper is an urban lighting designed on results obtained from a collective point of view about the social sustainability. In this paper, referring to behavioral design methods, the social behaviors of the people has been studied. Data show that people demands for a deeper experience of social participation, safety perception and energy saving with the meaningful use of interactive and colourful lighting effects. By using intelligent technology, some suggestions are provided in the field of future lighting to consider the new forms of social sustainability.

Keywords: behavior pattern, internet of things, social sustainability, urban lighting

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: T. Pakulski, L. Kryza, A. Linossier

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The BEar Articulated TeleRobotic Inspection and Clasping Extremity is a lightweight, 5 DoF robotic manipulator for the Berlin Educational Assistant Rover (BEAR). BEAR is one of the educational planetary rovers developed under the Space Rover projects at the Chair of Space Technology of the Technische Universität Berlin. The projects serve to conduct research and train engineers by developing rovers for competitions like the European Rover Challenge and the DLR SpaceBot Cup. BEATRICE is the result of a cost-driven design process to deliver a simple but capable platform for a variety of competition tasks: object grasping and manipulation, inspection, instrument wielding and more. The manipulator’s simple mechatronic design, based on a combination of servomotors and stepper motors with planetary gearboxes, also makes it a practical tool for developing embedded control systems. The platform’s initial implementation relies on tele-operated control but is fully instrumented for future autonomous functionality. This paper describes BEATRICE’s development from its preliminary link model to its structural and mechatronic design, embedded control and AI and T. In parallel, it examines the influence of budget constraints and high personnel turnover commonly associated with student teams on the manipulator’s design. Finally, it comments on the utility of robot design projects for educating future engineers.

Keywords: education, low-cost, manipulator, robotics, rover

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Barry Hojjatie

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Uniaxial (e.g., three-point bending) and biaxial flexure tests are used frequently for determining the strength of ceramics. It is generally believed that the biaxial test has an advantage as compared to uniaxial test because it produces a state of pure tension on the lower surface of the specimen and the maximum tensile stress, which is usually responsible for crack initiation and failure is unaffected by the edge condition. However, inconsistent strength values have been reported for the same material and testing conditions. The objective of this study was to analyze the strength of dental porcelain materials using the two different test methods and evaluate the main contributions to variability in biaxial testing and to analyze the relative influence of variables such as specimen geometric conditions and loading conditions on calculated strength of porcelain subjected to biaxial testing. Porcelain disks (16 mm dia x 2 mm thick) were subjected to biaxial flexure (pin-on-three-ball), and flexure strength values were calculated. A 3-D finite element model was developed to simulate various biaxial flexure test conditions. Stresses were analyzed for ceramic thickness in the range of 1.0-3.0 mm. For a 2-mm-thick disk subjected to a point load of 200 N, the maximum tensile stress at the lower surface was 180 MPa. This stress decreased to 95, 77, 68, and 59 MPa for the radius of the load values of 0.15, 0.3, 0.6, and 1.0 mm, respectively. Tensile stresses which developed at the top surface near the site of loading were small for the radius of the load ≥ 0.6 mm.

Keywords: ceramis, biaxial, flexure test, uniaxial

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Achim Kampker, Kai Kreiskoether, Johannes Wagner, Sarah Fluchs

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The growing speed of innovation in related industries requires the automotive industry to adapt and increase release frequencies of new vehicle derivatives which implies a significant reduction of investments per vehicle and ramp-up times. Emerging markets in various parts of the world augment the currently dominating established main automotive markets. Local content requirements such as import tariffs on final products impede the accessibility of these micro markets, which is why in the future market exploitation will not be driven by pure sales activities anymore but rather by setting up local assembly units. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the concept of decentralized assembly and to discuss and critically assess some currently researched and crucial approaches in production technology. In order to determine the scope in which complementary mobile assembly can be profitable for manufacturers, a general cost model is set up and each cost driver is assessed with respect to varying levels of decentralization. One main result of the paper is that the presented approaches offer huge cost-saving potentials and are thus critical for future production strategies. Nevertheless, they still need to be further exploited in order for decentralized assembly to be profitable for companies. The optimal level of decentralization must, however, be specifically determined in each case and cannot be defined in general.

Keywords: automotive assembly, e-mobility, production technology, release capability, small series assembly

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Walid Moudani

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The healthcare environment is generally perceived as being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant patterns from the coronary heart disease warehouses for heart attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose, we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts’ knowledge in this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.

Keywords: multi-classifier decisions tree, features reduction, dynamic programming, rough sets

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Authors: Sagri Sharma

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Analysis of diseases integrating multi-factors increases the complexity of the problem and therefore, development of frameworks for the analysis of diseases is an issue that is currently a topic of intense research. Due to the inter-dependence of the various parameters, the use of traditional methodologies has not been very effective. Consequently, newer methodologies are being sought to deal with the problem. Supervised Learning Algorithms are commonly used for performing the prediction on previously unseen data. These algorithms are commonly used for applications in fields ranging from image analysis to protein structure and function prediction and they get trained using a known dataset to come up with a predictor model that generates reasonable predictions for the response to new data. Gene expression profiles generated by DNA analysis experiments can be quite complex since these experiments can involve hypotheses involving entire genomes. The application of well-known machine learning algorithm - Support Vector Machine - to analyze the expression levels of thousands of genes simultaneously in a timely, automated and cost effective way is thus used. The objectives to undertake the presented work are development of a methodology to identify genes relevant to Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) from gene expression dataset utilizing supervised learning algorithms and statistical evaluations along with development of a predictive framework that can perform classification tasks on new, unseen data.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, biomarker, gene expression datasets, hepatocellular carcinoma, machine learning, supervised learning algorithms, support vector machine

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Authors: Kamolrat Turner, Chularat Howharn

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Critical thinking and creativity are desirable competency for contemporary nurses although there are growing concerns supporting a disturbing paucity in its achievement. Nursing colleges in Thailand have developed teaching strategies and curricula that nurture critical thinking and creativity dispositions according academic levels. Objectives: This descriptive study identified critical thinking and creativity dispositions of Thai nursing students according academic levels. Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted among 515 nursing students for four academic levels. All are studying at Boromarajonani College of Nursing Chon Buri, Thailand. Descriptive and univariate general linear model analysis were applied. Results: The scores on critical thinking disposition gradually increased as academic level is rising from the junior year throughout the senior year, but its scores are neutral. Scores on creativity skill is neutral and constant thorough the four academic years. The fourth grade students had slightly higher scores on creativity when compared to others. A significant relationship between critical thinking and creativity was also found. Conclusions: The scores on critical thinking disposition gradually improved which greatly increased in the senior year. However, creativity has neutrally progressed. The findings suggest the importance of targeting the development of curriculum and teaching strategies for all grades of nursing students to increase their critical thinking and creativity skills.

Keywords: critical thinking, creativity, undergraduate nursing students, competency

Procedia PDF Downloads 434

Authors: Surendra Choudhary, Sapan Tiwari

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The driver has two fundamental duties i) controlling the position of the vehicle along the longitudinal and lateral direction of movement ii) roadway width. Both of these duties are interdependent and are concurrently referred to as two-dimensional driver behavior. One of the main problems facing driver behavior modeling is to identify the parameters for describing the exemplary driving conduct and car maneuver under distinct traffic circumstances. Still, to date, there is no well-accepted theory that can comprehensively model the 2-D driver conduct (longitudinal and lateral). The primary objective of this research is to explore the vehicle's lateral longitudinal behavior in the heterogeneous condition of traffic on horizontal curves as well as the effect of road geometry on dynamic traffic parameters, i.e., car velocity and lateral placement. In this research, with their interrelationship, a thorough assessment of dynamic car parameters, i.e., speed, lateral acceleration, and turn radius. Also, horizontal curve road parameters, i.e., curvature radius, pavement friction, are performed. The dynamic parameters of the various types of car drivers are gathered using a VBOX GPS-based tool with high precision. The connection between dynamic car parameters and curve geometry is created after the removal of noise from the GPS trajectories. The major findings of the research are that car maneuvers with higher than the design limits of speed, acceleration, and lateral deviation on the studied curves of the highway. It can become lethal if the weather changes from dry to wet.

Keywords: geometry, maneuverability, terrain, trajectory, VBOX

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Authors: Dada Kolawole Segun

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Transdermal drug delivery has gained popularity as a non-invasive method for controlled drug release compared to traditional delivery routes. Dissolvable transdermal patches have emerged as a promising platform for delivering a variety of drugs due to their ease of use. The objective of this research was to create and characterize dissolvable transdermal patches using various compositions and ratios of hyaluronic acid and zinc oxide nanoparticles. A micromolding technique was utilized to fabricate the patches, which were subsequently characterized using scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, and tensile strength testing. In vitro drug release studies were conducted to evaluate the drug release kinetics of the patches. The study found that the mechanical strength and dissolution properties of the patches were influenced by the hyaluronic acid and zinc oxide nanoparticle ratios used in the fabrication process. Moreover, the patches demonstrated controlled delivery of model drugs through the skin, highlighting their potential for transdermal drug delivery applications. The results suggest that dissolvable transdermal patches can be tailored to meet specific requirements for drug delivery applications using different compositions and ratios of hyaluronic acid and zinc oxide nanoparticles. This development has the potential to improve treatment outcomes and patient compliance in various therapeutic areas.

Keywords: transdermal drug delivery, characterization, skin permeation, biodegradable materials

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Authors: Ehsan Yadegari

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While there are several metaheuristics and exact approaches to solving the Supply Chain Network Design (SCND) problem, there still remains an unfilled gap in using the Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO) algorithm. The algorithm has demonstrated desirable results with problems with complicated combinational optimization. The present study introduces a Discrete Self-Study TLBO (DSS-TLBO) with priority-based solution representation that can solve a supply chain network configuration model to lower the total expenses of establishing facilities and the flow of materials. The network features four layers, namely suppliers, plants, distribution centers (DCs), and customer zones. It is designed to meet the customer’s demand through transporting the material between layers of network and providing facilities in the best economic Potential locations. To have a higher quality of the solution and increase the speed of TLBO, a distinct operator was introduced that ensures self-adaptation (self-study) in the algorithm based on the four types of local search. In addition, while TLBO is used in continuous solution representation and priority-based solution representation is discrete, a few modifications were added to the algorithm to remove the solutions that are infeasible. As shown by the results of experiments, the superiority of DSS-TLBO compared to pure TLBO, genetic algorithm (GA) and firefly Algorithm (FA) was established.

Keywords: supply chain network design, teaching–learning-based optimization, improved metaheuristics, discrete solution representation

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Authors: M. Javanmard

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This study was aimed at analyzing the effects of packaging (MAP) and preservation conditions on the packaged fresh walnut kernel quality. The central composite plan was used for evaluating the effect of oxygen (0–10%), carbon dioxide (0-10%), and temperature (4-26 °C) on qualitative characteristics of walnut kernels. Also, the response level technique was used to find the optimal conditions for interactive effects of factors, as well as estimating the best conditions of process using least amount of testing. Measured qualitative parameters were: peroxide index, color, decreased weight, mould and yeast counting test, and sensory evaluation. The results showed that the defined model for peroxide index, color, weight loss, and sensory evaluation is significant (p < 0.001), so that increase of temperature causes the peroxide value, color variation, and weight loss to increase and it reduces the overall acceptability of walnut kernels. An increase in oxygen percentage caused the color variation level and peroxide value to increase and resulted in lower overall acceptability of the walnuts. An increase in CO₂ percentage caused the peroxide value to decrease, but did not significantly affect other indices (p ≥ 0.05). Mould and yeast were not found in any samples. Optimal packaging conditions to achieve maximum quality of walnuts include: 1.46% oxygen, 10% carbon dioxide, and temperature of 4 °C.

Keywords: shelled walnut, MAP, quality, storage temperature

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Authors: Tesfay Mekonnen Weldegerima

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Analysis of precipitation time series is a fundamental undertaking in meteorology and hydrology. The extreme precipitation scenario of the Kulfo River watershed is studied using wavelet analysis and atmospheric transport, a lagrangian trajectory model. Daily rainfall data for the 1991-2020 study periods are collected from the office of the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute. Meteorological fields on a three-dimensional grid at 0.5o x 0.5o spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution are also obtained from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Wavelet analysis of the daily precipitation processed with the lag-1 coefficient reveals some high power recurred once every 38 to 60 days with greater than 95% confidence for red noise. The analysis also identified inter-annual periodicity in the periods 2002 - 2005 and 2017 - 2019. Back trajectory analysis for 3-day periods up to May 19/2011, indicates the Indian Ocean source; trajectories crossed the eastern African escarpment to arrive at the Kulfo watershed. Atmospheric flows associated with the Western Indian monsoon redirected by the low-level Somali winds and Arabian ridge are responsible for the moisture supply. The time-localization of the wavelet power spectrum yields valuable hydrological information, and the back trajectory approaches provide useful characterization of air mass source.

Keywords: extreme precipitation events, power spectrum, back trajectory, kulfo watershed

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Authors: Yuguang Gao, Qiang Yang, Yanpeng Zhang, Mingtao Deng

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To enhance the safety, quality and efficiency of healthcare services provided by surgical doctors, we propose a comprehensive approach to the performance evaluation of individual doctors by incorporating insights from performance data as well as views of different stakeholders in the hospital. Exploratory factor analysis was first performed on collective multidimensional performance data of surgical doctors, where key factors were extracted that encompass assessment of professional experience and service performance. A two-level indicator system was then constructed, for which we developed a weighted interval-valued spherical fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to analyze the relative importance of the indicators while handling subjectivity and disparity in the decision-making of multiple parties involved. Our analytical results reveal that, for the key factors identified as instrumental for evaluating surgical doctors’ performance, the overall importance of clinical workload and complexity of service are valued more than capacity of service and professional experience, while the efficiency of resource consumption ranks comparatively the lowest in importance. We also provide a retrospective case study to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of our quantitative evaluation model by assigning meaningful performance ratings to individual doctors based on the weights developed through our approach.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy processes, factor analysis, fuzzy logic, performance evaluation

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The relative failure of simultaneous equation models in the seventies has led researchers to turn to other approaches that take into account the dynamics of economic and financial systems. In this paper, we use an approach based on vector autoregressive model that is widely used in recent years. Their popularity is due to their flexible nature and ease of use to produce models with useful descriptive characteristics. It is also easy to use them to test economic hypotheses. The standard econometric techniques assume that the series studied are stable over time (stationary hypothesis). Most economic series do not verify this hypothesis, which assumes, when one wishes to study the relationships that bind them to implement specific techniques. This is cointegration which characterizes non-stationary series (integrated) with a linear combination is stationary, will also be presented in this paper. Since the work of Johansen, this approach is generally presented as part of a multivariate analysis and to specify long-term stable relationships while at the same time analyzing the short-term dynamics of the variables considered. In the empirical part, we have applied these concepts to study the dynamics of of the exchange rate in Tunisia, which is one of the most important economic policy of a country open to the outside. According to the results of the empirical study by the cointegration method, there is a cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants. This relationship shows that the variables have a significant influence in determining the exchange rate in Tunisia.

Keywords: stationarity, cointegration, dynamic models, causality, VECM models

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Authors: Ekta Pandey

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The Indian Pharmaceutical Industry is ranked third largest by volume and fourteenth by value. It thus accounts for 10% of world’s production by volume and 1.5% by value according to Department of Pharmaceuticals, Government of India. The industry has shown phenomenal growth over past few years, moving from US $ 1 billion turnover in 1990 to a turnover of around US $30 billion in 2015. The Indian pharmaceutical sector is ranked seventeenth in terms of export value of active pharmaceutical ingredients and dosage forms to more than 200 countries around the globe. It has shown tremendous changes especially after Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement. Recognizing the immense potential for growth and its direct impact on Indian economy, it is important to look up the industrial policies adopted since Indian independence which turnaround the Indian pharmaceutical industry. A systematic review of changes in market structure of Indian pharmaceutical industry due to shift in policy regimes is done from 1850 to 2015 using secondary peer reviewed published research work. The aim is to understand the impact of anti-trust laws, intellectual property rights, industry competition acts and regulations are quite crucial in determining effective economic policy and have overall lasting effects on international trade and ties. The proposed paper examines the position of Indian domestic firms relative to multinational pharmaceutical firms tries to throw some light on the growth curve of Indian pharmaceutical sector.

Keywords: active pharmaceutical ingredients, competition act, pharmaceutical industry, TRIPS

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Authors: Firdaous Zair, Zoubir Elfelsoufi, Mohammed Fourka

Abstract:

The allocation of resources is an issue that is needed on the tactical and operational strategic plan. This work considers the allocation of resources in the case of pure players, manufacturers and Click & Mortars that have launched online sales. The aim is to improve the level of customer satisfaction and maintaining the benefits of e-retailer and of its cooperators and reducing costs and risks. Our contribution is a decision support system and tool for improving the allocation of resources in logistics chains e-commerce B2C context. We first modeled the B2C chain with all operations that integrates and possible scenarios since online retailers offer a wide selection of personalized service. The personalized services that online shopping companies offer to the clients can be embodied in many aspects, such as the customizations of payment, the distribution methods, and after-sales service choices. In addition, every aspect of customized service has several modes. At that time, we analyzed the optimization problems of supply chain resource allocation in customized online shopping service mode, which is different from the supply chain resource allocation under traditional manufacturing or service circumstances. Then we realized an optimization model and algorithm for the development based on the analysis of the allocation of the B2C supply chain resources. It is a multi-objective optimization that considers the collaboration of resources in operations, time and costs but also the risks and the quality of services as well as dynamic and uncertain characters related to the request.

Keywords: e-commerce, supply chain, B2C, optimisation, resource allocation

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Authors: Zhou Yang, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

Abstract:

Traffic prediction is essential in a multitude of ways in modern urban life. The researchers of earlier work in this domain carry out the investigation chiefly with two major focuses: (1) the accurate forecast of future values in multiple time series and (2) knowledge extraction from spatial-temporal correlations. However, two key considerations for traffic prediction are often missed: the completeness of raw data and the full context of the prediction timestamp. Concentrating on the two drawbacks of earlier work, we devise an approach that can address these issues in a two-phase framework. First, we utilize the raw trajectories to a greater extent through building a VLA table and data compression. We obtain the intra-trajectory features with graph-based encoding and the intertrajectory ones with a grid-based model and the technique of back projection that restore their surrounding high-resolution spatial-temporal environment. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study direct feature extraction from raw trajectories for traffic prediction and attempt the use of raw data with the least degree of reduction. In the prediction phase, we provide a broader context for the prediction timestamp by taking into account the information that are around it in the training dataset. Extensive experiments on several well-known datasets have verified the effectiveness of our solution that combines the strength of raw trajectory data and prediction context. In terms of performance, our approach surpasses several state-of-the-art methods for traffic prediction.

Keywords: traffic prediction, raw data utilization, context building, data reduction

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

Abstract:

Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

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Authors: Cam-Duc Au, Philippe Krahnhof, Lars Klingenberger

Abstract:

German banks are experiencing harsh times due to rising costs and declining profits. On the one hand, acquisition costs for new customers are increasing because of the rise of innovative FinTechs, which entered the market with one specific goal: disrupting the whole financial services industry by occupying parts of the value chain. On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as an overall low level of interest rates, cause the traditional source of bank income to still drain. Consequently, traditional banks must rethink their strategies or their identity, so to speak, because they go beyond their traditional offering of products and services. Having said that, banks may create new sources of income to stabilize their economic situation and replenish profits. The given paper aims to research the opportunities of establishing an ecosystem model. In doing so, the paper contributes to the current literature debate and provide reference points for traditional banks to start. Firstly, a systematic literature review introduces a selection of research works the author regards as significant. In the following step, quantitative data from an online survey with bank clients are analysed by means of descriptive statistics to show the perspective of Germans with regards to an ecosystem offering. The final research findings indicate that the surveyed retail banking clients express interest in the new offer, whereas non-financial products and services are of lower interest than their financial pendants.

Keywords: banking, ecosystem, disruptive innovation, digital offering, open-banking-strategy, financial services industry

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Authors: Spandan Sahu, Amiya Kumar Pati, Kishanjit Kumar Khatua

Abstract:

River is the main source of water. It is a form of natural open channel which gives rise to many complex phenomenon of sciences that needs to be tackled such as the critical flow conditions, boundary shear stress and depth averaged velocity. The development of society more or less solely depends upon the flow of rivers. The rivers are major sources of many sediments and specific ingredients which are much essential for human beings. During floods, part of a river is carried by the simple main channel and rest is carried by flood plains. For such compound asymmetric channels, the flow structure becomes complicated due to momentum exchange between main channel and adjoining flood plains. Distribution of boundary shear in subsections provides us with the concept of momentum transfer between the interface of main channel and the flood plains. Experimentally, to get better data with accurate results are very complex because of the complexity of the problem. Hence, Conveyance Estimation System (CES) software has been used to tackle the complex processes to determine the shear stresses at different sections of an open channel having asymmetric flood plains on both sides of the main channel and the results are compared with the symmetric flood plains for various geometrical shapes and flow conditions. Error analysis is also performed to know the degree of accuracy of the model implemented.

Keywords: depth average velocity, non prismatic compound channel, relative flow depth , velocity distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 125