Search results for: clinical deterioration prediction

Authors: Eric Lai, Sarah Lorger, David Eisinger, Richard Waugh

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Introduction: Percutaneous embolization of varicoceles has shown similar outcomes to surgery. However, there are advantages of radiological intervention as patients are not exposed to general anaesthesia, experience a quicker recovery and face a lower risk of major complications. Radiological interventions are also preferable after a failed surgical approach. We evaluate clinical outcomes of percutaneous embolization at a tertiary hospital in Sydney, Australia. Methods: Retrospective case series without a control group from a single site (Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, Australia). A data search was performed on the interventional radiology database with the word “varicocele” between February 2017 and March 2022. 62 patients were identified. Each patient file was reviewed and included in the study if they met the inclusion criteria. Results: A total of 56 patients were included. 6 patients were excluded as they did not receive intervention after the initial diagnostic venography. Technical success was 100%. Complications were seen in 3 patients (5.3%). The complications included post-procedural pain and fever, venous perforation with no clinical adverse outcome, and a mild allergic reaction to contrast. Recurrence occurred in 3 patients (5.6%), all of whom received a successful second procedure. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates comparable rates of technical success, complication rate and recurrence to other studies in the literature. When compared to surgical outcomes, the results were also similar. The main limitation is multiple patients lack long-term follow-up beyond 1 year, resulting in potential underestimation of the recurrence rate. Conclusion: Percutaneous embolization of varicocele is a safe alternative to surgical intervention.

Keywords: varicocele, interventional radiology, urology, radiology

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Authors: Lucile Rapin, Cynthia El Hage, Rihab Gamaoun, Maria-Fernanda Arboleda, Erin Prosk

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Introduction: Sante Cannabis (SC), a Canadian group of clinics dedicated to medical cannabis, based in Montreal and in the province of Quebec, has served more than 8000 patients seeking cannabis-based treatment over the past five years. As randomized clinical trials with natural medical cannabis are scarce, real-world evidence offers the opportunity to fill research gaps between scientific evidence and clinical practice. Data on the use of medical cannabis products from SC patients were prospectively collected, leading to a large real-world database on the use of medical cannabis. The aim of this study was to report information on the profiles of both patients and prescribed medical cannabis products at SC clinics, and to assess the safety of medical cannabis among Canadian patients. Methods: This is an observational retrospective study of 1342 adult patients who were authorized with medical cannabis products between October 2017 and September 2019. Information regarding demographic characteristics, therapeutic indications for medical cannabis use, patterns in dosing and dosage form of medical cannabis and adverse effects over one-year follow-up (initial and 4 follow-up (FUP) visits) were collected. Results: 59% of SC patients were female, with a mean age of 56.7 (SD= 15.6, range= (19-97)). Cannabis products were authorized mainly for patients with a diagnosis of chronic pain (68.8% of patients), cancer (6.7%), neurological disorders (5.6%), and mood disorders (5.4 %). At initial visit, a large majority (70%) of patients were authorized exclusively medical cannabis products, 27% were authorized a combination of pharmaceutical cannabinoids and medical cannabis and 3% were prescribed only pharmaceutical cannabinoids. This pattern was recurrent over the one-year follow-up. Overall, oil was the preferred formulation (average over visits 72.5%) followed by a combination of oil and dry (average 19%), other routes of administration accounted for less than 4%. Patients were predominantly prescribed products with a balanced THC:CBD ratio (59%-75% across visits). 28% of patients reported at least one adverse effect (AE) at the 3-month follow-up visit and 12% at the six-month FUP visit. 84.8% of total AEs were mild and transient. No serious AE was reported. Overall, the most common side effects reported were dizziness (11.95% of total AEs), drowsiness (11.4%), dry mouth (5.5%), nausea (4.8%), headaches (4.6%), cough (4.4%), anxiety (4.1%) and euphoria (3.5%). Other adverse effects accounted for less than 3% of total AE. Conclusion: Our results confirm that the primary area of clinical use for medical cannabis is in pain management. Patients in this cohort are largely utilizing plant-based cannabis oil products with a balanced ratio of THC:CBD. Reported adverse effects were mild and included dizziness and drowsiness. This real-world data confirms the tolerable safety profile of medical cannabis and suggests medical indications not yet validated in controlled clinical trials. Such data offers an important opportunity for the investigation of the long-term effects of cannabinoid exposure in real-life conditions. Real-world evidence can be used to direct clinical trial research efforts on specific indications and dosing patterns for product development.

Keywords: medical cannabis, safety, real-world data, Canada

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Authors: Jeonghun Nam, Seonggil Kim, Hyunjoo Choi, Chae Seung Lim

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Quantification and analysis of rare cells are challenging in clinical applications and cell biology due to its extremely small number in blood. In this work, we propose a viscoelastic microfluidic device for continuous cell concentration without sheath flows. Due to the viscoelastic effect on suspending cells, cells with the blockage ratio higher than 0.1 could be tightly focused at the center of the microchannel. The blockage ratio was defined as the particle diameter divided by the channel width. Finally, cells were concentrated through the center outlet and the additional suspending medium was removed to the side outlets. Since viscoelastic focusing is insensitive to the flow rate higher than 10 μl/min, the non-powered hand pump sprayer could be used with no accurate control of the flow rate, which is suitable for clinical settings in resource-limited developing countries. Using multiple concentration processes, high-throughput concentration of white blood cells in lysed blood sample was achieved by ~ 300-fold.

Keywords: cell concentration, high-throughput, non-powered, viscoelastic fluid

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Authors: Leonard Simoni, Ilir Alimehmeti, Ervina Shirka, Endri Hasimi, Ndricim Kallashi, Verona Beka, Suerta Kabili, Artan Goda

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Background: Diabetes Mellitus type 2, small vessel calibre, stented length of vessel, complex lesion morphology, and prior bypass surgery have resulted risk factors for In-Stent Restenosis (ISR). However, there are some contradictory results about body mass index (BMI) as a risk factor for ISR. Purpose: We want to identify clinical, lesional and procedural factors that can predict clinical ISR in our patients. Methods: Were enrolled 759 patients who underwent first-time elective PCI with Bare Metal Stents (BMS) from September 2011 to December 2013 in our Department of Cardiology and followed them for at least 1.5 years with a median of 862 days (2 years and 4 months). Only the patients re-admitted with ischemic heart disease underwent control coronary angiography but no routine angiographic control was performed. Patients were categorized in ISR and non-ISR groups and compared between them. Multivariate analysis - Binary Logistic Regression: Forward Conditional Method was used to identify independent predictive risk factors. P was considered statistically significant when <0.05. Results: ISR compared to non-ISR individuals had a significantly lower BMI (25.7±3.3 vs. 26.9±3.7, p=0.004), higher risk anatomy (LM + 3-vessel CAD) (23% vs. 14%, p=0.03), higher number of stents/person used (2.1±1.1 vs. 1.75±0.96, p=0.004), greater length of stents/person used (39.3±21.6 vs. 33.3±18.5, p=0.01), and a lower use of clopidogrel and ASA (together) (95% vs. 99%, p=0.012). They also had a higher, although not statistically significant, prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus (42% vs. 32%, p=0.072) and a greater number of treated vessels (1.36±0.5 vs. 1.26±0.5, p=0.08). In the multivariate analysis, Diabetes Mellitus type 2 and multiple stents used were independent predictors risk factors for In-Stent Restenosis, OR 1.66 [1.03-2.68], p=0.039, and OR 1.44 [1.16-1.78,] p=0.001, respectively. On the other side higher BMI and use of clopidogrel and ASA together resulted protective factors OR 0.88 [0.81-0.95], p=0.001 and OR 0.2 [0.06-0.72] p=0.013, respectively. Conclusion: Diabetes Mellitus and multiple stents are strong predictive risk factors, whereas the use of clopidogrel and ASA together are protective factors for clinical In-Stent Restenosis. Paradoxically High BMI is a protective factor for In-stent Restenosis, probably related to a larger diameter of vessels and consequently a larger diameter of stents implanted in these patients. Further studies are needed to clarify this finding.

Keywords: body mass index, diabetes mellitus, in-stent restenosis, percutaneous coronary intervention

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Authors: Nasreen Thebo, W. Shaikh, A. J. Laghari, P. Nangni

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Prunus dulcis (Almond) shell extract is demonstrated for its biomedical applications. Shell extract prepared by soxhlet method and further characterized by UV-Visible spectrophotometer, atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS), FTIR, GC-MS techniques. In this study, the antifungal activity of almond shell extract was observed against clinically isolated pathogenic fungi by strip method. The antioxidant potential of crude shell extract of was evaluated by using DPPH (2-2-diphenyl-1-picryhydrazyl) and radical scavenging system. The possibility of short term therapy was only 20 days. The total antioxidant activity varied from 94.38 to 95.49% and total phenolic content was found as 4.455 mg/gm in almond shell extract. Finally the results provide a great therapeutic potential against Tinea capitis infection of scalp. Included in this study of shell extract that show scientific evidence for clinical efficacy, as well as found to be more useful in the treatment of dermatologic disorders and without any doubt it can be recommended to be Patent.

Keywords: Tinea capitis, DPPH, FTIR, GC-MS therapeutic treatment

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Authors: Jorge Iván Bañol-Betancur, Lina María Martínez-Sánchez, María de los Ángeles Rodríguez-Gázquez, Estefanía Bahamonde-Olaya, Ana María Gutiérrez-Tamayo, Laura Isabel Jaramillo-Jaramillo, Camilo Ruiz-Mejía, Natalia Morales-Quintero

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Acute chest pain is a distressing sensation between the diaphragm and the base of the neck and it represents a diagnostic challenge for any physician in the emergency department. Objective: To establish the main clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients who present with chest pain to the emergency department in a private clinic from the city of Medellin, during 2014-2015. Methods: Cross-sectional retrospective observational study. Population and sample were patients who consulted for chest pain in the emergency department who met the eligibility criteria. The information was analyzed in SPSS program vr.21; qualitative variables were described through relative frequencies, and the quantitative through mean and standard deviation ‬or medians according to their distribution in the study population. Results: A total of 231 patients were evaluated, the mean age was 49.5 ± 19.9 years, 56.7% were females. The most frequent pathological antecedents were hypertension 35.5%, diabetes 10,8%, dyslipidemia 10.4% and coronary disease 5.2%. Regarding pain features, in 40.3% of the patients the pain began abruptly, in 38.2% it had a precordial location, for 20% of the cases physical activity acted as a trigger, and 60.6% was oppressive. Costochondritis was the most common cause of chest pain among patients with an established etiologic diagnosis, representing the 18.2%. Conclusions: Although the clinical features of pain reported coincide with the clinical presentation of an acute coronary syndrome, the most common cause of chest pain in study population was costochondritis instead, indicating that it is a differential diagnostic in the approach of patients with pain acute chest.

Keywords: acute coronary syndrome, chest pain, epidemiology, osteochondritis

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Authors: Muhammad Waqas Baqai, Noman Shahzad, Rehman Alvi

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Communication among health care givers is the essence of quality patient care and any compromise results in errors and inefficiency leading to cumbersome outcomes. The use of smartphone among health professionals has increased tremendously. Almost every health professional carries it and majority of them uses a third party communication software called whatsApp for work related communications. It gives instant access to the person responsible for any particular query and therefore helps in efficient and timely decision making. It is also an easy way of sharing medical documents, multimedia and provides platform for consensual decision making through group discussions. However clinical communication through whatsApp has some demerits too including reduction in verbal communication, worsening professional relations, unprofessional behavior, risk of confidentiality breach and threats from cyber-attacks. On the other hand the traditional pager device being used in many health care systems is a unidirectional communication that lacks the ability to convey any information other than the number to which the receiver has to respond. Our study focused on these two widely used modalities of communication among doctors of the largest tertiary care center of Pakistan i.e. The Aga Khan University Hospital. Our aim was to note which modality is considered better and has fewer threats to medical data. Approval from ethical review committee of the institute was taken prior to conduction of this study. We submitted an online survey form to all the interns and residents working at our institute and collected their response in a month’s time. 162 submissions were recorded and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Only 20% of them were comfortable with using pagers exclusively, 52% with whatsApp and 28% with both. 65% think that whatsApp is time-saving and quicker than pager. 54% of them considered whatsApp to be causing nuisance from work related notifications in their off-work hours. 60% think that they are more likely to miss information through pager system because of the unidirectional nature. Almost all (96%) of residents and interns found whatsApp to be useful in terms of saving information for future reference. For urgent issues, majority (70%) preferred pager over whatsApp and also pager was considered more valid in terms of hospital policies and legal issues. Among major advantages of whatsApp as listed by them were; easy mass communication, sharing of clinical pictures, universal access and no need of carrying additional device. However the major drawback of using whatsApp for clinical communication that everyone shared was threat to patients’ confidentiality as clinicians usually share pictures of wounds, clinical documents etc. Lastly we asked them if they think there is a need of a separate application for instant communication dedicated to clinical communication only and 90% responded positively. Therefore, we concluded that both modalities have their merits and demerits but the greatest drawback with whatsApp is the risk of breach in patients’ confidentiality and off-work disturbance. Hence, we recommend a more secure, institute-run application for all intra hospital communications where they can share documents, pictures etc. easily under a controlled environment.

Keywords: WhatsApp, pager, clinical communication, confidentiality

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Authors: Khaled M. Ali, Ayman A. Mostafa, Soliman M. Soliman

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Objectives: To describe the most common clinical and endoscopic findings associated with complicated corneal ulcers in cats, and to determine the short-term outcomes after surgical treatment of these cats. Animals Eighteen client-owned cats of different breeds (52 females and 28 males), ranging in age from 3 months to 6 years, with corneal ulcers. Procedures: Cats were clinically evaluated to initially determine the concurrent corneal abnormalities. Endoscopic examination was performed to determine the anterior and posterior segments abnormalities. Superficial and deep stromal ulcers were treated using conjunctival flap. Corneal sequestrum was treated by partial keratectomy and conjunctival flap. Anterior synechia was treated via peripheral iridectomy and separation of the adhesion between the iris and the inner cornea. Symblepharon was treated by removal of the adhered conjunctival membrane from the cornea. Incurable endophthalmitis was treated surgically by extirpation. Short-term outcomes after surgical managements of selected corneal abnormalities were then assessed clinically and endoscopically. Results: Deep stromal ulcer with descemetocele, endophthalmitis, symblepharon, corneal sequestration and anterior synechia with secondary glaucoma and corneal scarring were the most common complications of corneal ulcer. FHV-1 was a common etiologic factor of corneal ulceration. Persistent corneal scars of varying shape and size developed in cats with deep stromal ulcer, anterior synechia, and corneal sequestration. Conclusions: Domestic shorthaired and Persian cats were the most predisposed breeds to FHV-1 infection and subsequent corneal ulceration. Immediate management of patients with corneal ulcer would prevent serious complications. No age or sex predisposition to complicated corneal ulceration in cats.

Keywords: cats, complicated corneal ulceration, clinical, endoscopic diagnosis, FHV-1

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Authors: Jairson Barbosa Rodrigues, Paulo Romero Martins Maciel, Germano Crispim Vasconcelos

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This paper presents an investigation of the performance impacts regarding the variation of five factors (input data size, node number, cores, memory, and disks) when applying a distributed implementation of Naïve Bayes for text classification of a large Corpus on the Spark big data processing framework. Problem: The algorithm's performance depends on multiple factors, and knowing before-hand the effects of each factor becomes especially critical as hardware is priced by time slice in cloud environments. Objectives: To explain the functional relationship between factors and performance and to develop linear predictor models for time and cost. Methods: the solid statistical principles of Design of Experiments (DoE), particularly the randomized two-level fractional factorial design with replications. This research involved 48 real clusters with different hardware arrangements. The metrics were analyzed using linear models for screening, ranking, and measurement of each factor's impact. Results: Our findings include prediction models and show some non-intuitive results about the small influence of cores and the neutrality of memory and disks on total execution time, and the non-significant impact of data input scale on costs, although notably impacts the execution time.

Keywords: big data, design of experiments, distributed machine learning, natural language processing, spark

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Authors: Alireza Dantism

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Presently, describing the function of a protein sequence is one of the most common problems in biology. Usually, this problem can be facilitated by studying the three-dimensional structure of proteins. In the absence of a protein structure, comparative modeling often provides a useful three-dimensional model of the protein that is dependent on at least one known protein structure. Comparative modeling predicts the three-dimensional structure of a given protein sequence (target) mainly based on its alignment with one or more proteins of known structure (templates). Comparative modeling consists of four main steps 1. Similarity between the target sequence and at least one known template structure 2. Alignment of target sequence and template(s) 3. Build a model based on alignment with the selected template(s). 4. Prediction of model errors 5. Optimization of the built model There are many computer programs and web servers that automate the comparative modeling process. One of the most important advantages of these servers is that it makes comparative modeling available to both experts and non-experts, and they can easily do their own modeling without the need for programming knowledge, but some other experts prefer using programming knowledge and do their modeling manually because by doing this they can maximize the accuracy of their modeling. In this study, a web-based tool has been designed to predict the tertiary structure of proteins using PHP and Python programming languages. This tool is called EasyModel. EasyModel can receive, according to the user's inputs, the desired unknown sequence (which we know as the target) in this study, the protein sequence file (template), etc., which also has a percentage of similarity with the primary sequence, and its third structure Predict the unknown sequence and present the results in the form of graphs and constructed protein files.

Keywords: structural bioinformatics, protein tertiary structure prediction, modeling, comparative modeling, modeller

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Authors: Omar Dib, Rita Yaacoub, Luc Eveleigh, Nathalie Locquet, Hussein Dib, Ali Bassal, Christophe B. Y. Cordella

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The potential of front-face fluorescence coupled with chemometric techniques, namely parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) and multiple linear regression (MLR) as a rapid analysis tool to characterize Lebanese virgin olive oils was investigated. Fluorescence fingerprints were acquired directly on 102 Lebanese virgin olive oil samples in the range of 280-540 nm in excitation and 280-700 nm in emission. A PARAFAC model with seven components was considered optimal with a residual of 99.64% and core consistency value of 78.65. The model revealed seven main fluorescence profiles in olive oil and was mainly associated with tocopherols, polyphenols, chlorophyllic compounds and oxidation/hydrolysis products. 23 MLR regression models based on PARAFAC scores were generated, the majority of which showed a good correlation coefficient (R > 0.7 for 12 predicted variables), thus satisfactory prediction performances. Acid values, peroxide values, and Delta K had the models with the highest predictions, with R values of 0.89, 0.84 and 0.81 respectively. Among fatty acids, linoleic and oleic acids were also highly predicted with R values of 0.8 and 0.76, respectively. Factors contributing to the model's construction were related to common fluorophores found in olive oil, mainly chlorophyll, polyphenols, and oxidation products. This study demonstrates the interest of front-face fluorescence as a promising tool for quality control of Lebanese virgin olive oils.

Keywords: front-face fluorescence, Lebanese virgin olive oils, multiple Linear regressions, PARAFAC analysis

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Authors: Peng Guo

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Objective To investigate the clinical characteristics and changes of video-polysomnography (v-PSG) in Parkinson disease (PD) patients accompanied with cognitive impairment. Methods Three hundred and ninety-four patients with PD were enrolled in Beijing Tiantan Hospital, according to CI level, the patients were divided into PD without cognitive impairment (PD-NCI), PD with mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI), and PD with dementia (PDD) group. Collect patient's demographic data, including gender, onset age, education level and duration. The cognitive function of PD patients was evaluated by Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA) scale, and the overall cognitive function and cognitive domains of the three groups were compared.Using v-PSG to assess the sleep status of patients. Correlation analysis of MoCA Scale and v-PSG results in PD-CI group. Results 1. In 394 cases of PD, 94 cases (23.86%) in PD-NCI group , 177 cases(44.92%) in PD-MCI group , 123 cases (31.22%) in PDD group. 2.There was no significant difference in gender, age of onset, education level and duration in PD-NCI group, PD-MCI group and PDD group （P＞0.05）. 3. The total score of MoCA scale in PD-NCI group, PD-MCI group and PDD group decreased one by one. In PD-NCI group, PD-MCI group and PDD group, the scores of each cognitive domain in MoCA scale decreased significantly（P<0.05）. 4.Compared with the PD-MCI group, PDD group had lower total sleep time, lower sleep efficiency （P<0.05）. Compared with PD-NCI group, PDD group had lower total sleep time and lower sleep efficiency （P<0.05）.5. The sleep efficiency of PD-CI patients is positively correlated with the total score of MoCA scale, visual spatial function, executive function, delayed recall and attention score（P<0.05). Conclusions The incidence of CI in PD patients was high; The cognitive function and cognitive domains of PD-CI patients were significantly impaired; In patients with PD-CI, total sleep time decreased, sleep efficiency decreased, and it was related to overall cognitive function and partial cognitive impairment.

Keywords: Parkinson disease, cognitive impairment, clinical characteristics, sleep disorders, video-polysomnography

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Authors: Nalini Kaul, Barrie Drewitt, Elsie Kohoot

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Hyperpigmentation is the third most common pigmentary disorder where dermatologic treatment is sought. It affects all ages resulting in skin darkening because of melanin accumulation. An uneven skin tone because of either exposure to the sun (solar lentigos/age spots/sun spots or skin disruption following acne, or rashes (post-inflammatory hyperpigmentation -PIH) or hormonal changes (melasma) can lead to significant psychosocial impairment. Dyschromia is a result of various alterations in biochemical processes regulating melanogenesis. Treatments include the daily use of sunscreen with lightening, brightening, and exfoliating products. Depigmentation is achieved by various depigmenting agents: common examples are hydroquinone, arbutin, azelaic acid, aloesin, mulberry, licorice extracts, kojic acid, niacinamide, ellagic acid, arbutin, green tea, turmeric, soy, ascorbic acid, and tranexamic acid. These agents affect pigmentation by interfering with mechanisms before, during, and after melanin synthesis. While immediate correction is much sought after, patience and diligence are key. Our objective was to assess the effects of a facial product with pigmentation treatment and UV protection in 35 healthy F (35-65y), meeting the study criteria. Subjects with mild to moderate hyperpigmentation and fine lines with no use of skin-lightening products in the last six months or any dermatological procedures in the last twelve months before the study started were included. Efficacy parameters included expert clinical grading for hyperpigmentation, radiance, skin tone & smoothness, fine lines, and wrinkles bioinstrumentation (Corneometer®, Colorimeter®), digital photography and imaging (Visia-CR®), and self-assessment questionnaires. Safety included grading for erythema, edema, dryness & peeling and self-assessments for itching, stinging, tingling, and burning. Our results showed statistically significant improvement in clinical grading scores, bioinstrumentation, and digital photos for hyperpigmentation-brown spots, fine lines/wrinkles, skin tone, radiance, pores, skin smoothness, and overall appearance compared to baseline. The product was also well-tolerated and liked by subjects. Conclusion: Facial hyperpigmentation is of great concern, and treatment strategies are increasingly sought. Clinical trials with both subjective and objective assessments, imaging analyses, and self-perception are essential to distinguish evidence-based products. The multifunctional cosmetic product tested in this clinical study showed efficacy, tolerability, and subject satisfaction in reducing hyperpigmentation and global photoaging.

Keywords: hyperpigmentation; photoaging, clinical testing, expert visual evaluations, bio-instruments

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Authors: Muhammad Ahnaf Zahin, Yaw Adu-Gyamfi

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Bus transit is a crucial component of transportation networks, especially in urban areas. Any intelligent transportation system must have accurate real-time information on bus travel times since it minimizes waiting times for passengers at different stations along a route, improves service reliability, and significantly optimizes travel patterns. Bus agencies must enhance the quality of their information service to serve their passengers better and draw in more travelers since people waiting at bus stops are frequently anxious about when the bus will arrive at their starting point and when it will reach their destination. For solving this issue, different models have been developed for predicting bus travel times recently, but most of them are focused on smaller road networks due to their relatively subpar performance in high-density urban areas on a vast network. This paper develops a deep learning-based architecture using a single-step multi-station forecasting approach to predict average bus travel times for numerous routes, stops, and trips on a large-scale network using heterogeneous bus transit data collected from the GTFS database. Over one week, data was gathered from multiple bus routes in Saint Louis, Missouri. In this study, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network was followed to predict the mean vehicle travel times for different hours of the day for multiple stations along multiple routes. Historical time steps and prediction horizon were set up to 5 and 1, respectively, which means that five hours of historical average travel time data were used to predict average travel time for the following hour. The spatial and temporal information and the historical average travel times were captured from the dataset for model input parameters. As adjacency matrices for the spatial input parameters, the station distances and sequence numbers were used, and the time of day (hour) was considered for the temporal inputs. Other inputs, including volatility information such as standard deviation and variance of journey durations, were also included in the model to make it more robust. The model's performance was evaluated based on a metric called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The observed prediction errors for various routes, trips, and stations remained consistent throughout the day. The results showed that the developed model could predict travel times more accurately during peak traffic hours, having a MAPE of around 14%, and performed less accurately during the latter part of the day. In the context of a complicated transportation network in high-density urban areas, the model showed its applicability for real-time travel time prediction of public transportation and ensured the high quality of the predictions generated by the model.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, mean absolute percentage error, single-step forecasting, travel time prediction.

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Authors: Massimiliano Biagini, Marco Spinsanti, Gabriella De Angelis, Sara Tomei, Ilaria Ferlenghi, Maria Scarselli, Alessia Biolchi, Alessandro Muzzi, Brunella Brunelli, Silvana Savino, Marzia M. Giuliani, Isabel Delany, Paolo Costantino, Rino Rappuoli, Vega Masignani, Nathalie Norais

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The gram-negative bacterium Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B (MenB) is an exclusively human pathogen representing the major cause of meningitides and severe sepsis in infants and children but also in young adults. This pathogen is usually present in the 30% of healthy population that act as a reservoir, spreading it through saliva and respiratory fluids during coughing, sneezing, kissing. Among surface-exposed protein components of this diplococcus, factor H binding protein is a lipoprotein proved to be a protective antigen used as a component of the recently licensed Bexsero vaccine. fHbp is a highly variable meningococcal protein: to reflect its remarkable sequence variability, it has been classified in three variants (or two subfamilies), and with poor cross-protection among the different variants. Furthermore, the level of fHbp expression varies significantly among strains, and this has also been considered an important factor for predicting MenB strain susceptibility to anti-fHbp antisera. Different methods have been used to assess fHbp expression on meningococcal strains, however, all these methods use anti-fHbp antibodies, and for this reason, the results are affected by the different affinity that antibodies can have to different antigenic variants. To overcome the limitations of an antibody-based quantification, we developed a quantitative Mass Spectrometry (MS) approach. Selected Reaction Monitoring (SRM) recently emerged as a powerful MS tool for detecting and quantifying proteins in complex mixtures. SRM is based on the targeted detection of ProteoTypicPeptides (PTPs), which are unique signatures of a protein that can be easily detected and quantified by MS. This approach, proven to be highly sensitive, quantitatively accurate and highly reproducible, was used to quantify the absolute amount of fHbp antigen in total extracts derived from 105 clinical isolates, evenly distributed among the three main variant groups and selected to be representative of the fHbp circulating subvariants around the world. We extended the study at the genetic level investigating the correlation between the differential level of expression and polymorphisms present within the genes and their promoter sequences. The implications of fHbp expression on the susceptibility of the strain to killing by anti-fHbp antisera are also presented. To date this is the first comprehensive fHbp expression profiling in a large panel of Neisseria meningitidis clinical isolates driven by an antibody-independent MS-based methodology, opening the door to new applications in vaccine coverage prediction and reinforcing the molecular understanding of released vaccines.

Keywords: quantitative mass spectrometry, Neisseria meningitidis, vaccines, bexsero, molecular epidemiology

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Authors: Manal Ahmed, Amal Shehata, Shereen Deeb

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The study's purpose was to determine the effect of the perioperative protocol of care on clinical outcomes among patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft. Subjects: A sample of 100 adult patients who were planned for coronary artery bypass graft, were selected and divided alternatively and randomly into two equal groups (50 study -50 control).The study was carried out at National heart Institute in Cairo and open heart surgical intensive care unit in Shebin El-Kom Teaching Hospital. Instruments: Four instruments were used for data collection: Interviewing questionnaire, dyspnea analogue scale, Biophysiological measurement instrument, and Compliance assessment sheet. Results: There were statistically significant differences between both groups regarding most respiratory system assessment findings at discharge. More than two-thirds of the study group of the current study had a continuous and regular commitment to diet regimen, which ranked first followed by the compliance of daily living activities then quitting smoking. Conclusions: The perioperative protocol of care has a significant improving effect on respiratory findings, dyspnea degree, duration of mechanical ventilation, length of hospital stay, compliance to diet, therapeutic regimen, daily living activities, and quit smoking among study group undergoing CABG. Recommendations: Perioperative protocol of care should be carried out for CABG patients at open-heart surgical units as well as an illustrative colored booklet about CAD, CABG and perioperative care should be available and distributed to all CABG patients.

Keywords: perioperative, effect, clinical outcomes, coronary artery, bypass graft, protocol of care

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Authors: Wu Liching

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Aim This case aims to discuss the pathogenesis, clinical manifestations and medical treatment of strokes caused by mitochondrial gene mutations. Methods Diagnosis of ischemic stroke caused by mitochondrial gene defect by means of "next-generation sequencing mitochondrial DNA gene variation detection", imaging examination, neurological examination, and medical history; this study took samples from the neurology ward of a medical center in northern Taiwan cases diagnosed with acute cerebral infarction as the research objects. Result This case is a 49-year-old married woman with a rare disease, mitochondrial gene mutation inducing ischemic stroke. She has severe hearing impairment and needs to use hearing aids, and has a history of diabetes. During the patient’s hospitalization, the blood test showed that serum Lactate: 7.72 mmol/L, Lactate (CSF) 5.9 mmol/L. Through the collection of relevant medical history, neurological evaluation showed changes in consciousness and cognition, slow response in language expression, and brain magnetic resonance imaging examination showed subacute bilateral temporal lobe infarction, which was an atypical type of stroke. The lineage DNA gene has m.3243A>G known pathogenic mutation point, and its heteroplasmic level is 24.6%. This pathogenic point is located in MITOMAP and recorded as Mitochondrial Encephalopathy, Lactic Acidosis, and Stroke-like episodes (MELAS) , Leigh Syndrome and other disease-related pathogenic loci, this mutation is located in ClinVar and recorded as Pathogenic (dbSNP: rs199474657), so it is diagnosed as a case of stroke caused by a rare disease mitochondrial gene mutation. After medical treatment, there was no more seizure during hospitalization. After interventional rehabilitation, the patient's limb weakness, poor language function, and cognitive impairment have all improved significantly. Conclusion Mitochondrial disorders can also be associated with abnormalities in psychological, neurological, cerebral cortical function, and autonomic functions, as well as problems with internal medical diseases. Therefore, the differential diagnoses cover a wide range and are not easy to be diagnosed. After neurological evaluation, medical history collection, imaging and rare disease serological examination, atypical ischemic stroke caused by rare mitochondrial gene mutation was diagnosed. We hope that through this case, the diagnosis of rare disease mitochondrial gene variation leading to cerebral infarction will be more familiar to clinical medical staff, and this case report may help to improve the clinical diagnosis and treatment for patients with similar clinical symptoms in the future.

Keywords: acute stroke, MELAS, lactic acidosis, mitochondrial disorders

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Authors: Michael A. Kraus, Navid Pourmoghaddam, Martin Botz, Jens Schneider, Geralt Siebert

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Fragmentation analysis of tempered glass gives insight into the quality of the tempering process and defines a certain degree of safety as well. Different standard such as the European EN 12150-1 or the American ASTM C 1048/CPSC 16 CFR 1201 define a minimum number of fragments required for soda-lime safety glass on the basis of fragmentation test results for classification. This work presents an approach for the glass breakage pattern prediction using a Voronoi Tesselation over Random Fields. The random Voronoi tessellation is trained with and validated against data from several breakage patterns. The fragments in observation areas of 50 mm x 50 mm were used for training and validation. All glass specimen used in this study were commercially available soda-lime glasses at three different thicknesses levels of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm. The results of this work form a Bayesian framework for the training and prediction of breakage patterns of tempered soda-lime glass using a Voronoi Random Field Tesselation. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified, and several statistical measures of the pattern can be preservation with this method. Within this work it was found, that different Random Fields as basis for the Voronoi Tesselation lead to differently well fitted statistical properties of the glass breakage patterns. As the methodology is derived and kept general, the framework could be also applied to other random tesselations and crack pattern modelling purposes.

Keywords: glass breakage predicition, Voronoi Random Field Tessellation, fragmentation analysis, Bayesian parameter identification

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Authors: Boularas El-Alia, Arbi Raja, Bachir Bouiadjra Sara, Rezk-Kallah Haciba, Rezkkallah Baghdad

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Objectives : To determine the handling practices of cytotoxic drugs and to describe clinical manifestations expressed by hospital personnel of Sidi Bel Abbes during the year 2014. Methods: Sectional descriptive study conducted in 3 center university hospital units (Hematology, Oncology and Urology) and Gynecology of EHS Sidi Bel Abbes. A questionnaire was administered to hospital workers regulary exposed to cytotoxic drugs. A work-place visit was performed to have an overview about working conditions. The Cytotoxic Contact Index (CCI) was calculated for each nurse on a period of 15 working days. Treatment of the results was done using SPSS software. Results: The survey reveals that 22 men and 58 women are exposed to cytotoxic drugs for an average of 7 years. Many symptoms such as ocular irritation (38,75%), throat irritation (56,25%), headache (68,75%), dizziness (43,75%), nausea (37,5%), metallic taste (30%), were reported with high frequency. Are noted in the offspring, 3 congenital anomalies,2 diaphragmatic hernia and a cleft palate. The Cytotoxic Contact Index (CCI) was higher than 3 among Oncology nurses and higher than 1 for most of the nurses of Hematology and Gynecology service. The wearing of personal protective clothing was not respected by all workers: (22/23) wear gloves and (20/23) wear a mask,(5/23) wear a cap, (2/23) wear glasses. Only 3 nurses have benefited from continuous training on handling cytotoxic drugs. Conclusion: This study shows a high occupational exposure risk to cytotoxic drugs among persons handling these drugs and the necessity to apply rigorously all measures related to personal protection awareness and training of personnel to minimize these exposure.

Keywords: cytotoxic drugs, handling, clinical manifestations, hospital staff

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Authors: Goodness Onwuka, Khaled Abou-El-Hossein

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Borosilicate-crown (BK7) glass has found broad application in the optic and automotive industries and the growing demands for nanometric surface finishes is becoming a necessity in such applications. Thus, it has become paramount to optimize the parameters influencing the surface roughness of this precision lens. The research was carried out on a 4-axes Nanoform 250 precision lathe machine with an ultra-high precision grinding spindle. The experiment varied the machining parameters of feed rate, wheel speed and depth of cut at three levels for different combinations using Box Behnken design of experiment and the resulting surface roughness values were measured using a Taylor Hobson Dimension XL optical profiler. Acoustic emission monitoring technique was applied at a high sampling rate to monitor the machining process while further signal processing and feature extraction methods were implemented to generate the input to a neural network algorithm. This paper highlights the training and development of a back propagation neural network prediction algorithm through careful selection of parameters and the result show a better classification accuracy when compared to a previously developed response surface model with very similar machining parameters. Hence artificial neural network algorithms provide better surface roughness prediction accuracy in the ultra-high precision grinding of BK7 glass.

Keywords: acoustic emission technique, artificial neural network, surface roughness, ultra-high precision grinding

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Authors: Walid Mousa, Mohamed Nayel, Ahmed Zaghawa, Akram Salama, Ahmed El-Sify, Hesham Rashad, Dina El-Shafey

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Mycoplasmosis in small ruminants constitutes a serious contagious problem in smallholders causing severe economic losses worldwide. This study was conducted to determine the clinical, Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) and molecular characterization of Mycoplasma species associated in sheep breeding herds in Menoufiya governorate, Egypt. Out of the examination of 400 sheep, 104 (26%) showed respiratory manifestations, nasal discharges, cough and conjunctivitis with systemic body reaction. Meanwhile, out of these examined sheep, only 56 (14%) were positive for mycoplasma isolation onto PPLO(Pleuropneumonia-like organisms) specific medium. The MIC for evaluating the efficacy of sensitivity of Mycoplasma isolates against different antibiotics groups revealed that both the Linospectin and Tylosin with 2ug, 0.25ug/ml concentration were the most effective antibiotics for Mycoplasma isolates. The application of PCR was the rapid, specific and sensitive molecular approach for detection of M. ovipneumoniae, and M. arginine at 390 and 326 bp, respectively, in all tested isolates. In conclusion, the diagnosis of Mycoplsamosis in sheep is important to achieve effective control measures and minimizing the disease dissemination among sheep herds.

Keywords: MIC, mycoplasmosis, PCR, sheep

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Authors: Naduni Ranasinghe

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E-learning environments are getting more popular than any other due to the impact of COVID19. Even though e-learning is one of the best solutions for the teaching-learning process in the academic process, it’s not without major challenges. Nowadays, machine learning approaches are utilized in the analysis of how behavioral factors lead to better adoption and how they related to better performance of the students in eLearning environments. During the pandemic, we realized the academic process in the eLearning approach had a major issue, especially for the performance of the students. Therefore, an approach that investigates student behaviors in eLearning environments using a data-intensive machine learning approach is appreciated. A hybrid approach was used to understand how each previously told variables are related to the other. A more quantitative approach was used referred to literature to understand the weights of each factor for adoption and in terms of performance. The data set was collected from previously done research to help the training and testing process in ML. Special attention was made to incorporating different dimensionality of the data to understand the dependency levels of each. Five independent variables out of twelve variables were chosen based on their impact on the dependent variable, and by considering the descriptive statistics, out of three models developed (Random Forest classifier, SVM, and Decision tree classifier), random forest Classifier (Accuracy – 0.8542) gave the highest value for accuracy. Overall, this work met its goals of improving student performance by identifying students who are at-risk and dropout, emphasizing the necessity of using both static and dynamic data.

Keywords: academic performance prediction, e learning, learning analytics, machine learning, predictive model

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Authors: Rozi Laskaraki, Argyris Karapetsas, Aikaterini Karapetsa

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This paper is focused on the efficacy of a rehabilitation program based on musical activities, implied to a group of school-aged dyslexic children. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficacy of auditory training including musical exercises in children with developmental dyslexia (DD). Participants and Methods: 45 third-, and fourth-grade students with DD and a matched control group (n=45) were involved in this study. In the beginning, students participated in a clinical assessment, including both electrophysiological (i.e., event related potentials (ERPs) esp.P300 waveform) and neuropsychological tests, being conducted in Laboratory of Neuropsychology, at University of Thessaly, in Volos, Greece. Initial assessment’s results confirmed statistically significant lower performance for children with DD, compared to that of the typical readers. After clinical assessment, a subgroup of children with dyslexia was submitted to a music auditory training program, conducted in 45-minute training sessions, once a week, for twenty weeks. The program included structured and digitized musical activities involving pitch, rhythm, melody and tempo perception and discrimination as well as auditory sequencing. After the intervention period, children underwent a new recording of ERPs. Results: The electrophysiological results revealed that children had similar P300 latency values to that of the controls, after the remediation program; thus children overcame their deficits. Conclusion: The outcomes of the current study suggest that ERPs is a valid clinical tool in neuropsychological assessment settings and dyslexia can be ameliorated through music auditory training.

Keywords: dyslexia, event related potentials, learning disabilities, music, rehabilitation

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Authors: ShuJiang Jiang

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The interaction of turbulence with airfoil is an important noise source in many engineering fields, including helicopters, turbofan, and contra-rotating open rotor engines, where turbulence generated in the wake of upstream blades interacts with the leading edge of downstream blades and produces aerodynamic noise. One approach to study turbulence-airfoil interaction noise is to model the oncoming turbulence as harmonic gusts. A compact noise source produces a dipole-like sound directivity pattern. However, when the acoustic wavelength is much smaller than the airfoil chord length, the airfoil needs to be treated as a non-compact source, and the gust-airfoil interaction becomes more complicated and results in multiple lobes generated in the radiated sound directivity. Capturing the short acoustic wavelength is a challenge for numerical simulations. In this work, simulations are performed for gust-airfoil interaction at different Mach numbers, using a high-fidelity direct Computational AeroAcoustic (CAA) approach based on a spectral/hp element method, verified by a CAA benchmark case. It is found that the squared sound pressure varies approximately as the 5th power of Mach number, which changes slightly with the observer location. This scaling law can give a better sound prediction than the flat-plate theory for thicker airfoils. Besides, another prediction method, based on the flat-plate theory and CAA simulation, has been proposed to give better predictions than the scaling law for thicker airfoils.

Keywords: aeroacoustics, gust-airfoil interaction, CFD, CAA

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Authors: Rezvan Hosseinian

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Aim: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a chronic connective tissue disease with the clinical hallmark of skin thickening and tethering. The correlation of musculoskeletal features with other parameters should be considered in SSc patients. Methods: We reviewed the records of all patients who had more than one visit and standard anteroposterior radiography of hand. We used univariate analysis, and factors with p<0.05 were included in logistic regression to find out dependent factors. Results: Overall, 180 SSc patients were enrolled in our study, 161 (89.4%) of whom were women. The median age (IQR) was 47.0 years (16), and 52% had a diffuse subtype of the disease. In multivariate analysis, tendon friction rubs (TFRs) were associated with the presence of calcinosis, muscle tenderness, and flexion contracture (FC) on physical examination (p<0.05). Arthritis showed no differences in the two subtypes of the disease (p=0.98), and in multivariate analysis, there were no correlations between radiographic arthritis and serological and clinical features. The radiographic results indicated that disease duration correlated with joint erosion, acro-osteolysis, resorption of the distal ulna, calcinosis and radiologic FC (p< 0.05). Acro-osteolysis was more frequent in the dcSSc subtype, TFRs, and anti-TOPO I antibody. Radiologic FC showed an association with skin score, calcinosis and haematocrit <30% (p<0.05). Joint flexion on radiography was associated with disease duration, modified Rodnan skin score, calcinosis, and low hematocrit (P<0.01). Conclusion: Disease duration was a main dependent factor for developing joint erosion, acro-osteolysis, bone resorption, calcinosis, and flexion contracture on hand radiography. Acro-osteolysis presented in the severe form of the disease. Acro-osteolysis was the only dependent variable associated with bone demineralization.

Keywords: disease subsets, hand radiography, joint erosion, sclerosis

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Authors: Nasrin Azarbani

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Aim: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a chronic connective tissue disease with the clinical hallmark of skin thickening and tethering. Correlation of musculoskeletal features with other parameters should be considered in SSc patients. Methods: We reviewed the records of all patients who had more than one visit and standard anteroposterior radiography of hand. We used univariate analysis, and factors with p<0.05 were included in logistic regression to find out dependent factors. Results: Overall, 180 SSc patients were enrolled in our study, 161 (89.4%) of whom were women. Median age (IQR) was 47.0 years (16), and 52% had diffuse subtype of the disease. In multivariate analysis, tendon friction rubs (TFRs) was associated with the presence of calcinosis, muscle tenderness, and flexion contracture (FC) on physical examination (p<0.05). Arthritis showed no differences in the two subtypes of the disease (p=0.98), and in multivariate analysis, there were no correlations between radiographic arthritis and serological and clinical features. The radiographic results indicated that disease duration correlated with joint erosion, acro-osteolysis, resorption of distal ulna, calcinosis and radiologic FC (p< 0.05). Acro-osteolysis was more frequent in the dcSSc subtype, TFRs, and anti-TOPO I antibody. Radiologic FC showed an association with skin score, calcinosis and haematocrit <30% (p<0.05). Joint flexion on radiography was associated with disease duration, modified Rodnan skin score, calcinosis, and low haematocrit (P<0.01). Conclusion: Disease duration was a main dependent factor for developing joint erosion, acro-osteolysis, bone resorption, calcinosis, and flexion contracture on hand radiography. Acro-osteolysis presented in the severe form of the disease. Acro-osteolysis was the only dependent variable associated with bone demineralization.

Keywords: sclerosis, disease subsets, joint erosion, musculoskeletal

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Authors: Venkateswar Pujari

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This study tries to investigate the complex interplay between control, awareness, and attention in human cognitive processes. The fundamental elements of cognitive functioning that play a significant role in influencing perception, decision-making, and behavior are attention, awareness, and control. Understanding how they interact can help us better understand how our minds work and may even increase our understanding of cognitive science and its therapeutic applications. The study uses an empirical methodology to examine the relationships between attention, awareness, and control by integrating different experimental paradigms and neuropsychological tests. To ensure the generalizability of findings, a wide sample of participants is chosen, including people with various cognitive profiles and ages. The study is structured into four primary parts, each of which focuses on one component of how attention, awareness, and control interact: 1. Evaluation of Attentional Capacity and Selectivity: In this stage, participants complete established attention tests, including the Stroop task and visual search tasks. 2. Evaluation of Awareness Degrees: In the second stage, participants' degrees of conscious and unconscious awareness are assessed using perceptual awareness tasks such as masked priming and binocular rivalry tasks. 3. Investigation of Cognitive Control Mechanisms: In the third phase, reaction inhibition, cognitive flexibility, and working memory capacity are investigated using exercises like the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test and the Go/No-Go paradigm. 4. Results Integration and Analysis: Data from all phases are integrated and analyzed in the final phase. To investigate potential links and prediction correlations between attention, awareness, and control, correlational and regression analyses are carried out. The study's conclusions shed light on the intricate relationships that exist between control, awareness, and attention throughout cognitive function. The findings may have consequences for cognitive psychology, neuroscience, and clinical psychology by providing new understandings of cognitive dysfunctions linked to deficiencies in attention, awareness, and control systems.

Keywords: attention, awareness, control, cognitive functioning, neuropsychological assessment

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Authors: Camilo Andres Agudelo-Velez, Lina María Martinez-Sanchez, Natalia Perilla-Hernandez, Maria De Los Angeles Rodriguez-Gazquez, Felipe Hernandez-Restrepo, Dayana Andrea Quintero-Moreno, Camilo Ruiz-Mejia, Isabel Cristina Ortiz-Trujillo, Monica Maria Zuluaga-Quintero

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Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is common condition, characterized by a persistent blockage of airflow, partially reversible and progressive, that represents 5% of total deaths around the world, and it is expected to become the third leading cause of death by 2030. Objective: To establish the clinical and epidemiological profile of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a medical institution from the city of Medellin, Colombia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed, with a sample of 50 patients with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a private institution in Medellin, during 2015. The software SPSS vr. 20 was used for the statistical analysis. For the quantitative variables, averages, standard deviations, and maximun and minimun values were calculated, while for ordinal and nominal qualitative variables, proportions were estimated. Results: The average age was 73.5±9.3 years, 52% of the patients were women, 50% of them had retired, 46% ere married and 80% lived in the city of Medellín. The mean time of diagnosis was 7.8±1.3 years and 100% of the patients were treated at the internal medicine service. The most common clinical features were: 36% were classified as class D for the disease, 34% had a FEV1 <30%, 88% had a history of smoking and 52% had oxygen therapy at home. Conclusion: It was found that class D was the most common, and the majority of the patients had a history of smoking, indicating the need to strengthen promotion and prevention strategies in this regard.

Keywords: pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive, pulmonary medicine, oxygen inhalation therapy

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Authors: Shu-Min Tsao, Chung-Ming Lo, Shao-Chun Chen

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Most diabetes patients tend to suffer from its complication of retina diseases. Therefore, early detection and early treatment are important. In clinical examinations, using color fundus image was the most convenient and available examination method. According to the exudates appeared in the retinal image, the status of retina can be confirmed. However, the routine screening of diabetic retinopathy by color fundus images would bring time-consuming tasks to physicians. This study thus proposed a computer-aided exudate diagnosis for the screening of diabetic retinopathy. After removing vessels and optic disc in the retinal image, six quantitative features including region number, region area, and gray-scale values etc… were extracted from the remaining regions for classification. As results, all six features were evaluated to be statistically significant (p-value < 0.001). The accuracy of classifying the retinal images into normal and diabetic retinopathy achieved 82%. Based on this system, the clinical workload could be reduced. The examination procedure may also be improved to be more efficient.

Keywords: computer-aided diagnosis, diabetic retinopathy, exudate, image processing

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Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa, Lathifah Al Hakimi, Aulia Husada

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A large amount of energy is being wasted by the release of natural gas associated with the oil industry. This release interrupts the environment particularly atmosphere layer condition globally which contributes to global warming impact. This research presents an overview of the methods employed by researchers in PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia in the Minas area to determine a new prediction method of measuring and reducing gas flaring and its emission. The method emphasizes advanced research which involved analytical studies, numerical studies, modeling, and computer simulations, amongst other techniques. A flaring system is the controlled burning of natural gas in the course of routine oil and gas production operations. This burning occurs at the end of a flare stack or boom. The combustion process releases emissions of greenhouse gases such as NO2, CO2, SO2, etc. This condition will affect the chemical composition of air and environment around the boundary layer mainly during transition season. Transition season in Indonesia is absolutely very difficult condition to predict its pattern caused by the difference of two air mass conditions. This paper research focused on transition season in 2013. A simulation to create the new pattern of the pollutants distribution is needed. This paper has outlines trends in gas flaring modeling and current developments to predict the dominant variables in the pollutants distribution. A Fluent model is used to simulate the distribution of pollutants gas coming out of the stack, whereas WRF model output is used to overcome the limitations of the analysis of meteorological data and atmospheric conditions in the study area. Based on the running model, the most influence factor was wind speed. The goal of the simulation is to predict the new pattern based on the time of fastest wind and slowest wind occurs for pollutants distribution. According to the simulation results, it can be seen that the fastest wind (last of March) moves pollutants in a horizontal direction and the slowest wind (middle of May) moves pollutants vertically. Besides, the design of flare stack in compliance according to EPA Oil and Gas Facility Stack Parameters likely shows pollutants concentration remains on the under threshold NAAQS (National Ambient Air Quality Standards).

Keywords: flare motion, new prediction, pollutants distribution, transition season, WRF model

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