Search results for: spatio-temporal modelling

Authors: Jane N. O'Sullivan

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Although it is widely believed that fertility decline has benefitted economic advancement, particularly in East and South-East Asian countries, the causal mechanisms for this stimulus are contested. Since the turn of this century, demographic dividend theory has been increasingly recognised, hypothesising that higher proportions of working-age people can contribute to economic expansion if conditions are met to employ them productively. Population growth rate, as a systemic condition distinct from age composition, has not been similar attention since the 1970s and has lacked methodology for quantitative assessment. This paper explores conceptual and empirical quantification of the burden of expanding physical capital to accommodate a growing population. In proof-of-concept analyses of Australia and the United Kingdom, actual expenditure on gross fixed capital formation was compiled over four decades and apportioned to maintenance/turnover or expansion to accommodate population growth, based on lifespan of capital assets and population growth rate. In both countries, capital expansion was estimated to cost 6.5-7.0% of GDP per 1% population growth rate. This opportunity cost impedes the improvement of per capita capacity needed to realise the potential of the working-age population. Economic modelling of demographic scenarios have to date omitted this channel of influence; the implications of its inclusion are discussed.

Keywords: age dependency, demographic dividend, infrastructure, population growth rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Anton Golubkov, Gleb Ermachkov, Aleksandr Smerdin, Oleg Sidorov, Victor Philippov

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Current collection quality is one of the limiting factors when increasing trains movement speed in the rail sector. With the movement speed growth, the impact forces on the current collector from the rolling stock and the aerodynamic influence increase, which leads to the spread in the contact pressure values, separation of the current collector head from the contact wire, contact arcing and excessive wear of the contact elements. The upcoming trend in resolving this issue is the use of the automatic control systems providing stabilization of the contact pressure value. The present paper considers the features of the contemporary automatic control systems of the current collector’s pressure; their major disadvantages have been stated. A scheme of current collector pressure automatic control has been proposed, distinguished by a proactive influence on undesirable effects. A mathematical model of contact strips wearing has been presented, obtained in accordance with the provisions of the central composition rotatable design program. The analysis of the obtained dependencies has been carried out. The procedures for determining the optimal current collector pressure on the contact wire and the pressure control principle in the pneumatic drive have been described.

Keywords: contact strip, current collector, high-speed running, program control, wear

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Ali A. Al-Jazaairry, Tahsin T. Sabbagh

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Presence of cavities in soil predictably induces ground deformation and changes in soil stress, which might influence adjacent existing pile foundations, though the effect of twin cavities on a nearby pile needs to be understood. This research is an attempt to identify the behaviour of piles subjected to axial load and embedded in cavitied clayey soil. A series of finite element modelling were conducted to investigate the performance of piled foundation located in such soils. The validity of the numerical simulation was evaluated by comparing it with available field test and alternative analytical model. The study involved many parameters such as twin cavities size, depth, spacing between cavities, and eccentricity of cavities from the pile axis on the pile performance subjected to axial load. The study involved many cases; in each case, a critical value has been found in which cavities’ presence has shown minimum impact on the behaviour of pile. Load-displacement relationships of the affecting parameters on the pile behaviour were presented to provide helpful information for designing piled foundation situated near twin underground cavities. It was concluded that the presence of the cavities within the soil mass reduces the ultimate capacity of pile. This reduction differs according to the size and location of the cavity.

Keywords: axial load, clay, finite element, pile, twin cavities, ultimate capacity

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: Jiaqi Dong, Qing-Hua Qin, Yi Xiao

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Some of the most fundamental challenges of elastic metamaterials (EMMs) optimization can be attributed to the high consumption of computational power resulted from finite element analysis (FEA) simulations that render the optimization process inefficient. Furthermore, due to the inherent mesh dependence of FEA, minuscule geometry features, which often emerge during the later stages of optimization, induce very fine elements, resulting in enormously high time consumption, particularly when repetitive solutions are needed for computing the objective function. In this study, a surrogate modelling algorithm is developed to reduce computational time in structural optimization of EMMs. The surrogate model is constructed based on a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture, trained with prepopulated eigenfrequency data prepopulated from FEA simulation and optimized through regime selection with genetic algorithm (GA) to improve its accuracy in predicting the location and width of the primary elastic band gap. With the optimized ANN surrogate at the core, a Nelder-Mead (NM) algorithm is established and its performance inspected in comparison to the FEA solution. The ANNNM model shows remarkable accuracy in predicting the band gap width and a reduction of time consumption by 47%.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, mechanical metamaterials, Nelder-Mead optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Oday Al-Mamoori, J. Enrique Martinez-Rueda

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'C' shape yielding devices (C-devices) are effective tools for introducing supplemental sources of energy dissipation by hysteresis. Studies have shown that C-devices made of mild steel can be successfully applied as integral parts of seismic retrofitting schemes. However, explicit modelling of these devices can become cumbersome, expensive and time consuming. The device under study in this article has been previously used in non-invasive dissipative bracing for seismic retrofitting. The device is cut from a mild steel plate and has an overall shape that resembles that of a rectangular portal frame with circular interior corner transitions to avoid stress concentration and to control the extension of the dissipative region of the device. A number of inelastic finite element (FE) analyses using either inelastic 2D plane stress elements or inelastic fibre frame elements are reported and used to calibrate a 1D equivalent inelastic spring model that effectively reproduces the cyclic response of the device. The more elaborate FE model accounts for the frictional forces developed between the steel plate and the bolts used to connect the C-device to structural members. FE results also allow the visualization of the inelastic regions of the device where energy dissipation is expected to occur. FE analysis results are in a good agreement with experimental observations.

Keywords: C-device, equivalent nonlinear spring, FE analyses, reversed cyclic tests

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: J. Sharon Mano Pappu, Sathyanarayana N. Gummadi

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Growth of Debaryomyces nepalensis on mixed substrates in batch culture follows diauxic pattern of completely utilizing glucose during the first exponential growth phase, followed by an intermediate lag phase and a second exponential growth phase consuming xylose. The present study deals with the development of cybernetic mathematical model for prediction of xylitol production and yield. Production of xylitol from xylose in batch fermentation is investigated in the presence of glucose as the co-substrate. Different ratios of glucose and xylose concentrations are assessed to study the impact of multi substrate on production of xylitol in batch reactors. The parameters in the model equations were estimated from experimental observations using integral method. The model equations were solved simultaneously by numerical technique using MATLAB. The developed cybernetic model of xylose fermentation in the presence of a co-substrate can provide answers about how the ratio of glucose to xylose influences the yield and rate of production of xylitol. This model is expected to accurately predict the growth of microorganism on mixed substrate, duration of intermediate lag phase, consumption of substrate, production of xylitol. The model developed based on cybernetic modelling framework can be helpful to simulate the dynamic competition between the metabolic pathways.

Keywords: co-substrate, cybernetic model, diauxic growth, xylose, xylitol

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Authors: Justyna Rybicka, Ashutosh Tiwari, Shane Enticott

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In the age of automation and computation aiding manufacturing, it is clear that manufacturing systems have become more complex than ever before. Although technological advances provide the capability to gain more value with fewer resources, sometimes utilisation of the manufacturing capabilities available to organisations is difficult to achieve. Flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) provide a unique capability to manufacturing organisations where there is a need for product range diversification by providing line efficiency through production flexibility. This is very valuable in trend driven production set-ups or niche volume production requirements. Although FMS provides flexible and efficient facilities, its optimal set-up is key in achieving production performance. As many variables are interlinked due to the flexibility provided by the FMS, analytical calculations are not always sufficient to predict the FMS’ performance. Simulation modelling is capable of capturing the complexity and constraints associated with FMS. This paper demonstrates how discrete event simulation (DES) can address complexity in an FMS to optimise the production line performance. A case study of an automotive FMS is presented. The DES model demonstrates different configuration options depending on prioritising objectives: utilisation and throughput. Additionally, this paper provides insight into understanding the impact of system set-up constraints on the FMS performance and demonstrates the exploration into the optimal production set-up.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, flexible manufacturing system, capacity performance, automotive

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Authors: A. T. Kassem

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Fires areconsidered a common hazardous action that any building may face. Most buildings’ structural elements are designed, taking into consideration precautions for fire safety, using deterministic design approaches. Public and highly important buildings are commonly designed considering standard fire rating and, in many cases, contain large compartments with central domes. Real fire scenarios are not commonly brought into action in structural design of buildings because of complexities in both scenarios and analysis tools. This paper presents a modern approach towards analysis of spherical domes in real fire condition via implementation of building information modelling, and adopting a probabilistic approach. BIMhas been implemented to bridge the gap between various software packages enabling them to function interactively to model both real fire and corresponding structural response. Ventilation controlled fires scenarios have been modeled using both “Revit” and “Pyrosim”. Monte Carlo simulation has been adopted to engage the probabilistic analysis approach in dealing with various parameters. Conclusions regarding failure probability and fire endurance, in addition to the effects of various parameters, have been extracted.

Keywords: concrete, spherical domes, ventilation controlled fires, BIM, monte carlo simulation, pyrosim, revit

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Rasha Aljaryian, Lalit Kumar

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Climate is undergoing continuous change and this trend will affect the cultivation areas ofmost crops, including wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), in the future. The current suitable cultivation areas may become unsuitable climatically. Countries that depend on wheat cultivation and export may suffer an economic loss because of production decline. On the other hand, some regions of the world could gain economically by increasing cultivation areas. This study models the potential future climatic suitability of wheat by using CLIMEX software. Two different global climate models (GCMs) were used, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), with two emission scenarios (A2, A1B). The results of this research indicate that the suitable climatic areas for wheat in the southern hemisphere, such as Australia, are expected to contract by the end of this century. However, some unsuitable or marginal areas will become climatically suitable under future climate scenarios. In North America and Europe further expansion inland could occur. Also, the results illustrate that heat and dry stresses as abiotic climatic factors will play an important role in wheat distribution in the future. Providing sufficient information about future wheat distribution will be useful for agricultural ministries and organizations to manage the shift in production areas in the future. They can minimize the expected harmful economic consequences by preparing strategic plans and identifying new areas for wheat cultivation.

Keywords: Climate change, Climate modelling, CLIMEX, Triticum aestivum, Wheat

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Omar Moafaq Saleh Aljanabi, Noradiva Hamzah, Ruhanita Maelah

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In today’s challenging global economy, which is driven by information and knowledge, risk management is undergoing a great change, as organizations shift from traditional and compartmental risk management to an enterprise-wide approach. Enterprise risk management (ERM), which aims at increasing the sustainability of an organization and achieving competitive advantage, is gaining global attention and fast becoming an essential concern in all industries. Furthermore, in order to be effective, ERM should be managed by managers with high-level skills and knowledge. Despite the importance of the knowledge embedded in, there remains a paucity of evidence concerning how human capital could influence the organization’s ERM. Responses from 116 public listed companies (PLCs) on the main market of Bursa Malaysia were analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). This study found that there is a significant association between ERM and organizational performance. The results also indicate that human capital has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between ERM and performance. The study contributes to the ERM literature by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between ERM, human capital, and organizational performance. Findings from this study also provide guidelines for managers, policy makers, and the regulatory bodies, to evaluate the ERM practices in PLCs.

Keywords: enterprise risk management, human capital, organizational performance, Malaysian public listed companies

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Kien-Trinh Thi Bui, Cuong Manh Nguyen

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In order to simulate and reproduce the operational characteristics of a dam visually, it is necessary to capture the displacement at different measurement points and analyze the observed movement data promptly to forecast the dam safety. The accuracy of forecasts is further improved by applying machine learning methods to data analysis progress. In this study, the horizontal displacement monitoring data of the Ialy hydroelectric dam was applied to machine learning algorithms: Gaussian processes, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, and the M5-rules algorithm for modelling and forecasting of horizontal displacement of the Ialy hydropower dam (Vietnam), respectively, for analysing. The database which used in this research was built by collecting time series of data from 2006 to 2021 and divided into two parts: training dataset and validating dataset. The final results show all three algorithms have high performance for both training and model validation, but the MLPs is the best model. The usability of them are further investigated by comparison with a benchmark models created by multi-linear regression. The result show the performance which obtained from all the GP model, the MLPs model and the M5-Rules model are much better, therefore these three models should be used to analyze and predict the horizontal displacement of the dam.

Keywords: Gaussian processes, horizontal displacement, hydropower dam, Ialy dam, M5-Rules, multi-layer perception neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Samson Mil'shtein, Dhawal N. Asthana

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The presented heterostructure n-p-n bipolar transistor is comprised of Ge/GaAs heterojunctions consisting of 0.15µm thick emitter and 0.65µm collector junctions. High diffusivity of carriers in GaAs base was major motivation of current design. We avoided grading of the base which is common in heterojunction bipolar transistors, in order to keep the electron diffusivity as high as possible. The electrons injected into the 0.25µm thick p-type GaAs base with not very high doping (1017cm-3). The designed HBT enables cut off frequency on the order of 150GHz. The Ge/GaAs heterojunctions presented in our paper have proved to work better than comparable HBTs having GaAs bases and emitter/collector junctions made, for example, of AlGaAs/GaAs or other III-V compound semiconductors. The difference in lattice constants between Ge and GaAs is less than 2%. Therefore, there is no need of transition layers between Ge emitter and GaAs base. Significant difference in energy gap of these two materials presents new scope for improving performance of the emitter. With the complete structure being modelled and simulated using TCAD SILVACO, the collector/ emitter offset voltage of the device has been limited to a reasonable value of 63 millivolts by the dint of low energy band gap value associated with Ge emitter. The efficiency of the emitter in our HBT is 86%. Use of Germanium in the emitter and collector regions presents new opportunities for integration of this vertical device structure into silicon substrate.

Keywords: Germanium, Gallium Arsenide, heterojunction bipolar transistor, high cut-off frequency

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Mahdi Saadat, Abbas Taheri

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Understanding the cracking response of crystalline rocks at mineralogical scale is of great importance during the design procedure of mining structures. A grain-based distinct element model (GBM) is employed to numerically study the cracking response of Barre granite at micro- and macro-scales. The GBM framework is augmented with a proposed distinct element-based cohesive model to reproduce the micro-cracking response of the inter- and intra-grain contacts. The cohesive GBM framework is implemented in PFC2D distinct element codes. The microstructural properties of Barre granite are imported in PFC2D to generate synthetic specimens. The microproperties of the model is calibrated against the laboratory uniaxial compressive and Brazilian split tensile tests. The calibrated model is then used to simulate the fracturing behaviour of pre-cracked Barre granite with different flaw configurations. The numerical results of the proposed model demonstrate a good agreement with the experimental counterparts. The GBM framework proposed thus appears promising for further investigation of the influence of grain microstructure and mineralogical properties on the cracking behaviour of crystalline rocks.

Keywords: discrete element modelling, cohesive grain-based model, crystalline rock, fracturing behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Heba Kamal, Ghada Saudi

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Due to The rapid expansion of energy and growing number of wind turbines construction in earthquake areas, a design method for simple and accurate evaluation of seismic load to ensure structural integrity is required. In Egypt, there are some appropriate places to build wind turbine towers lie in active seismically regions, so accurate analysis is necessary for prediction of seismic loads with consideration of intensity of the earthquake, soil and structural characteristics. In this research, seismic behavior of wind turbine towers Gamesa Type G52 in Zafarana Wind Farm Egypt is investigated using experimental work by ambient vibration test, and fully dynamic analysis based on time history from El Aqaba Earthquake 1995 using 3D by PLAXIS 3D software, including the soil structure interaction effect. The results obtained from dynamic analyses are discussed. From this study, it is concluded that, the fully dynamic seismic analysis based on used PLAXIS 3D with the aid of the full scale ambient vibration test gives almost good simulation for the seismic loads that can be applied to wind turbine tower design in Egypt.

Keywords: Wind turbine towers, Zafarana Wind Farm, Gamesa Type G52, ambient vibration test

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Hans-Peter Piepho

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We aim to model dynamics of wildlife or pastoral livestock population for understanding of their population change and hence for wildlife conservation and promoting human welfare. The study is motivated by an age-sex structured population counts in different regions of Serengeti-Mara during the period 1989-2003. Developing reliable and realistic models for population dynamics of large herbivore population can be a very complex and challenging exercise. However, the Bayesian statistical domain offers some flexible computational methods that enable the development and efficient implementation of complex population dynamics models. In this work, we have used a novel Bayesian state-space model to analyse the dynamics of topi and hartebeest populations in the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem of East Africa. The state-space model involves survival probabilities of the animals which further depend on various factors like monthly rainfall, size of habitat, etc. that cause recent declines in numbers of the herbivore populations and potentially threaten their future population viability in the ecosystem. Our study shows that seasonal rainfall is the most important factors shaping the population size of animals and indicates the age-class which most severely affected by any change in weather conditions.

Keywords: bayesian state-space model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, population dynamics, conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: M. Ezkurra, J. A. Esnaola, M. Martinez-Agirre, U. Etxeberria, U. Lertxundi, L. Colomo, M. Begiristain, I. Zurutuza

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Butterfly valves are widely used industrial piping components as on-off and flow controlling devices. The main challenge in the design process of this type of valves is the correct dimensioning to ensure proper mechanical performance as well as to minimise flow losses that affect the efficiency of the system. Butterfly valves are typically dimensioned in a closed position based on mechanical approaches considering uniform hydrostatic pressure, whereas the flow losses are analysed by means of CFD simulations. The main limitation of these approaches is that they do not consider either the influence of the dynamics of the manoeuvring stage or coupled phenomena. Recent works have included the influence of the flow on the mechanical behaviour for different opening angles by means of one-way FSI approach. However, these works consider steady-state flow for the selected angles, not capturing the effect of the transient flow evolution during the manoeuvring stage. Two-way FSI modelling approach could allow overcoming such limitations providing more accurate results. Nevertheless, the use of this technique is limited due to the increase in the computational cost. In the present work, the applicability of FSI one-way and two-way approaches is evaluated for the analysis of butterfly valves, showing that not considering fluid-structure coupling involves not capturing the most critical situation for the valve disc.

Keywords: butterfly valves, fluid-structure interaction, one-way approach, two-way approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Golaleh Ghaffari

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A basin sediment yield refers to the amount of sediment exported by a basin over a period of time, which will enter a reservoir located at the downstream limit of the basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, 2008) was used to hydrology and sediment transport modeling at daily and monthly time steps within the Gheshlagh dam basin in north-west of Iran. The SWAT model and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were applied to evaluate basin hydrology and sediment yield using historical flow and sediment data and to identify and prioritize critical sub-basins based on sediment transport. The results of this study indicated that simulated daily discharge and sediment values matched the observed values satisfactorily. The model predicted that mean annual basin precipitation for the total study period (413 mm) was partitioned in to evapotranspiration (36%), percolation/groundwater recharge (21%) and stream water (25%), yielding 18% surface runoff. Potential source areas of erosion were also identified with the model. The range of the annual contributing erosive zones varied spatially from 0.1 to 103 t/ha according to the slope and land use at the basin scale. Also the fifteen sub basins create the 60% of the total sediment yield between the all (102) sub basins. The results of the study indicated that SWAT can be a useful tool for assessing hydrology and sediment yield response of the watersheds in the region.

Keywords: erosion, Gheshlagh dam, sediment yield, SWAT

Procedia PDF Downloads 498

Authors: Pierre-Marie Basset, Gabriel Reboul, Binh DangVu, Sébastien Mercier

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Rotorcraft provides invaluable services thanks to their Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL), hover and low speed capabilities. Yet their use is still often limited by their cost and environmental impact, especially noise and energy consumption. One of the main brakes to the expansion of the use of rotorcraft for urban missions is the environmental impact. The first main concern for the population is the noise. In order to develop the transversal competency to assess the rotorcraft environmental footprint, a collaboration has been launched between six research departments within ONERA. The progress in terms of models and methods are capitalized into the numerical workshop C.R.E.A.T.I.O.N. “Concepts of Rotorcraft Enhanced Assessment Through Integrated Optimization Network”. A typical mission for which the environmental impact issue is of great relevance has been defined. The first milestone is to perform the pre-sizing of a reference helicopter for this mission. In a second milestone, an alternate rotorcraft concept has been defined: a tandem rotorcraft with optional propulsion. The key design trends are given for the pre-sizing of this rotorcraft aiming at a significant reduction of the global environmental impact while still giving equivalent flight performance and safety with respect to the reference helicopter. The models and methods have been improved for catching sooner and more globally, the relative variations on the environmental impact when changing the rotorcraft architecture, the pre-design variables and the operation parameters.

Keywords: environmental impact, flight performance, helicopter, multi objectives multidisciplinary optimization, rotorcraft

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: M. Crozet, D. Roudil, T. Branger, S. Boden, P. Peerani, B. Russell, M. Herranz, L. Aldave de la Heras

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The EURATOM work program project INSIDER (Improved Nuclear Site Characterization for Waste minimization in Decommissioning under Constrained Environment) was launched in June 2017. This 4-year project has 18 partners and aims at improving the management of contaminated materials arising from decommissioning and dismantling (D&D) operations by proposing an integrated methodology of characterization. This methodology is based on advanced statistical processing and modelling, coupled with adapted and innovative analytical and measurement methods, with respect to sustainability and economic objectives. In order to achieve these objectives, the approaches will be then applied to common case studies in the form of Inter-laboratory comparisons on matrix representative reference samples and benchmarking. Work Package 6 (WP6) ‘Performance analysis and overall uncertainty’ is in charge of the analysis of the benchmarking on real samples, the organisation of inter-laboratory comparison on synthetic certified reference materials and the establishment of overall uncertainty budget. Assessment of the outcome will be used for providing recommendations and guidance resulting in pre-standardization tests.

Keywords: decommissioning, sampling strategy, research and development, characterization, European project

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Mohsen Torabi, Nader Karimi, Kaili Zhang

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This work aims to provide a comprehensive study on the heat transfer and entropy generation rates of a horizontal channel partially filled with a porous medium which experiences internal heat generation or consumption due to exothermic or endothermic chemical reaction. The focus has been given to the local thermal non-equilibrium (LTNE) model. The LTNE approach helps us to deliver more accurate data regarding temperature distribution within the system and accordingly to provide more accurate Nusselt number and entropy generation rates. Darcy-Brinkman model is used for the momentum equations, and constant heat flux is assumed for boundary conditions for both upper and lower surfaces. Analytical solutions have been provided for both velocity and temperature fields. By incorporating the investigated velocity and temperature formulas into the provided fundamental equations for the entropy generation, both local and total entropy generation rates are plotted for a number of cases. Bifurcation phenomena regarding temperature distribution and interface heat flux ratio are observed. It has been found that the exothermicity or endothermicity characteristic of the channel does have a considerable impact on the temperature fields and entropy generation rates.

Keywords: entropy generation, exothermicity or endothermicity, forced convection, local thermal non-equilibrium, analytical modelling

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Authors: N. Gigauri, V. Kukhalashvili, A. Surmava, L. Intskirveli, L. Gverdtsiteli

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Tbilisi, a large city of the South Caucasus, is a junction point connecting Asia and Europe, Russia and republics of the Asia Minor. Over the last years, its atmosphere has been experienced an increasing anthropogenic load. Numerical modeling method is used for study of Tbilisi atmospheric air pollution. By means of 3D non-linear non-steady numerical model a peculiarity of city atmosphere pollution is investigated during background western light air. Dust concentration spatial and time changes are determined. There are identified the zones of high, average and less pollution, dust accumulation areas, transfer directions etc. By numerical modeling, there is shown that the process of air pollution by the dust proceeds in four stages, and they depend on the intensity of motor traffic, the micro-relief of the city, and the location of city mains. In the interval of time 06:00-09:00 the intensive growth, 09:00-15:00 a constancy or weak decrease, 18:00-21:00 an increase, and from 21:00 to 06:00 a reduction of the dust concentrations take place. The highly polluted areas are located in the vicinity of the city center and at some peripherical territories of the city, where the maximum dust concentration at 9PM is equal to 2 maximum allowable concentrations. The similar investigations conducted in case of various meteorological situations will enable us to compile the map of background urban pollution and to elaborate practical measures for ambient air protection.

Keywords: air pollution, dust, numerical modeling, urban

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Nur A. Özdemir, Sude Erkin, Hatice K. Güney, Cemre S. Atılgan, Enes Huylu, Hüseyin Y. Altıntaş, Aysemin Top, Özak Durmuş

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Carbon emissions produced during a product’s life cycle, from extraction of raw materials up to waste disposal and market consumption activities are the major contributors to global warming. In the light of the science-based targets (SBT) leading the way to a zero-carbon economy for sustainable growth of the companies, carbon footprint reporting of the purchased goods has become critical for identifying hotspots and best practices for emission reduction opportunities. In line with Ford Otosan's corporate sustainability strategy, research was conducted to evaluate the carbon footprint of purchased products in accordance with Scope 3 of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG). The purpose of this paper is to develop a systematic and transparent methodology to calculate carbon footprint of the products produced by automotive OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) within the context of automobile supply chain management. To begin with, primary material data were collected through IMDS (International Material Database System) corresponds to company’s three distinct types of vehicles including Light Commercial Vehicle (Courier), Medium Commercial Vehicle (Transit and Transit Custom), Heavy Commercial Vehicle (F-MAX). Obtained material data was classified as metals, plastics, liquids, electronics, and others to get insights about the overall material distribution of produced vehicles and matched to the SimaPro Ecoinvent 3 database which is one of the most extent versions for modelling material data related to the product life cycle. Product life cycle analysis was calculated within the framework of ISO 14040 – 14044 standards by addressing the requirements and procedures. A comprehensive literature review and cooperation with suppliers were undertaken to identify the production methods of parts used in vehicles and to find out the amount of scrap generated during part production. Cumulative weight and material information with related production process belonging the components were listed by multiplying with current sales figures. The results of the study show a key modelling on carbon footprint of products and processes based on a scientific approach to drive sustainable growth by setting straightforward, science-based emission reduction targets. Hence, this study targets to identify the hotspots and correspondingly provide broad ideas about our understanding of how to integrate carbon footprint estimates into our company's supply chain management by defining convenient actions in line with climate science. According to emission values arising from the production phase including raw material extraction and material processing for Ford OTOSAN vehicles subjected in this study, GHG emissions from the production of metals used for HCV, MCV and LCV account for more than half of the carbon footprint of the vehicle's production. Correspondingly, aluminum and steel have the largest share among all material types and achieving carbon neutrality in the steel and aluminum industry is of great significance to the world, which will also present an immense impact on the automobile industry. Strategic product sustainability plan which includes the use of secondary materials, conversion to green energy and low-energy process design is required to reduce emissions of steel, aluminum, and plastics due to the projected increase in total volume by 2030.

Keywords: automotive, carbon footprint, IMDS, scope 3, SimaPro, sustainability

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Authors: Isha Sharawat, R. P. Dahiya, T. R. Sreekrishnan

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One of the environmental challenges in India is urban wastewater management as regulations and infrastructural development has not kept pace with the urbanization and growing population. The quality of life of people is also improving with the rapid growth of the gross domestic product. This has contributed to the enhancement in the per capita water requirement and consumption. More domestic water consumption generates more wastewater. The scarcity of potable water is making the situation quite serious, and water supply has to be regulated in most parts of the country during summer. This requires elaborate and concerted efforts to efficiently manage the water resources and supply systems. In this article, a system dynamics modelling approach is used for estimating the water demand and wastewater generation in a district headquarter city of North India. Projections are made till the year 2035. System dynamics is a software tool used for formulation of policies. On the basis of the estimates, policy scenarios are developed for sustainable development of water resources in conformity with the growing population. Mitigation option curtailing the water demand and wastewater generation include population stabilization, water reuse and recycle and water pricing. The model is validated quantitatively, and sensitivity analysis tests are carried out to examine the robustness of the model.

Keywords: system dynamics, wastewater, water pricing, water recycle

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Authors: Najrullah Khan, Athar Ali Khan

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The Topp-Leone distribution was introduced by Topp- Leone in 1955. In this paper, an attempt has been made to fit Topp-Leone Generalized exponential (TPGE) distribution. A real survival data set is used for illustrations. Implementation is done using R and JAGS and appropriate illustrations are made. R and JAGS codes have been provided to implement censoring mechanism using both optimization and simulation tools. The main aim of this paper is to describe and illustrate the Bayesian modelling approach to the analysis of survival data. Emphasis is placed on the modeling of data and the interpretation of the results. Crucial to this is an understanding of the nature of the incomplete or 'censored' data encountered. Analytic approximation and simulation tools are covered here, but most of the emphasis is on Markov chain based Monte Carlo method including independent Metropolis algorithm, which is currently the most popular technique. For analytic approximation, among various optimization algorithms and trust region method is found to be the best. In this paper, TPGE model is also used to analyze the lifetime data in Bayesian paradigm. Results are evaluated from the above mentioned real survival data set. The analytic approximation and simulation methods are implemented using some software packages. It is clear from our findings that simulation tools provide better results as compared to those obtained by asymptotic approximation.

Keywords: Bayesian Inference, JAGS, Laplace Approximation, LaplacesDemon, posterior, R Software, simulation

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Authors: Ehsan Gholamalizadeh, Jae Dong Chung

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Solar chimney power plant is a feasible solar thermal system which produces electricity from the Sun. The objective of this study is to investigate buoyancy-driven flow and heat transfer through a built pilot solar chimney system called 'Kerman Project'. The system has a chimney with the height and diameter of 60 m and 3 m, respectively, and the average radius of its solar collector is about 20 m, and also its average collector height is about 2 m. A three-dimensional simulation was conducted to analyze the system, using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). In this model, radiative transfer equation was solved using the discrete ordinates (DO) radiation model taking into account a non-gray radiation behavior. In order to modelling solar irradiation from the sun’s rays, the solar ray tracing algorithm was coupled to the computation via a source term in the energy equation. The model was validated with comparing to the experimental data of the Manzanares prototype and also the performance of the built pilot system. Then, based on the numerical simulations, velocity and temperature distributions through the system, the temperature profile of the ground surface and the system performance were presented. The analysis accurately shows the flow and heat transfer characteristics through the pilot system and predicts its performance.

Keywords: buoyancy-driven flow, computational fluid dynamics, heat transfer, renewable energy, solar chimney power plant

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Authors: Samatha Ss Sutton, Kaouther Kooli

Abstract:

In recent years social media influences (SMI) have become integrated into many companies marketing strategies to create buzz, target new and younger markets and further expand social media coverage in business (Lim et al 2017). SMI’s can be defined as online personalities with a substantial number of followers, across one or more social media platforms, with influence on their followers (Lou and Yuan 2018). Recently expenditure on influencer marketing has increased exponentially becoming an important area for marketing opportunities and strategies in the future (Lou and Yuan 2018). In order to market products and brands effectively through SMI’s it is important for business to understand the attributes of SMI that effect purchase intention (Lim et al 2017) of their followers and whether or not these attributes vary across generations so to market effectively to their specific segment or target market. The present study involves quantitative research to understand the attributes by which influence differs across generations namely Generation X and Millennials and its effects on purchase intentions of these generational groups. A survey will be conducted using an online questionnaire. Structural Equation Modelling and Multi group analysis will be applied. The study provides insight to marketers/decision makers on how to use influencers accordingly with their target consumer.

Keywords: social media marketing, social media influencers, attitude towards social media influencers, intention to purchase

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Authors: Eka Yuliana, Siska Shabrina Julyan

Abstract:

The competitive environment and high customer’s churn rate in telecommunication industries lead Indonesian telecommunication companies become strive to offer products with more value. Offering product with more value can encourage customers to keep using the companies product. One of way to retain customer is give a membership card to the customers as practiced by PT. Telkom by giving Telkom Membership Card to PT. Telkom loyal customer. This study aims to determine the influence of Telkom Membership Card customer perceived value on retaining PT. Telkom Indonesia’s customer in 2013-2014 by using quantitative method with causal study. Analythical technique used in this study is Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to test the causal relationship with 216 owner of Telkom Membership Card in Indonesia. This study conclude that: (i) Customer perceived value on Telkom Membership Card is located in fair value zone, (ii) PT. Telkom efforts in order to retain the customers is classified as good, (iii) Customer perceived value is influencing the effort to retain the customer with the probability value less than 0.05 and level of influence 69%. Based on result of this study, PT. Telkom should (i) Improve Telkom Membership Card’s promotion because not all customer of PT. Telkom have the membership card. (iia) Adding Telkom Membership Card’s benefit such as discount at various merchant (iib) Making call center for member of Telkom Membership Card (iii) PT. Telkom should be ensure availability of their service. (iv) PT. Telkom should make a priority to customer who have telkom membership card and offers a better service.For future research should be use different variables.

Keywords: customer perceived value, customer retention, marketing, relationship marketing

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Authors: Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Apurba Das, Joel Trudell, Keanne Russell

Abstract:

In this presentation, we explore options for mitigating ice-jam flooding along the Athabasca River in western Canada. Not only flood hazard, expressed in this case as the probability of flood depths and extents being exceeded, but also flood risk, in which annual expected damages are calculated. Flood risk is calculated, which allows a cost-benefit analysis to be made so that decisions on the best mitigation options are not based solely on flood hazard but also on the costs related to flood damages and the benefits of mitigation. The river ice model is used to simulate extreme ice-jam flood events with which scenarios are run to determine flood exposure and damages in flood-prone areas along the river. We will concentrate on three mitigation options – the placement of a dike, artificial breakage of the ice cover along the river, the installation of an ice-control structure, and the construction of a reservoir. However, any mitigation option is not totally failsafe. For example, dikes can still be overtopped and breached, and ice jams may still occur in areas of the river where ice covers have been artificially broken up. Hence, for all options, it is recommended that zoning of building developments away from greater flood hazard areas be upheld. Flood mitigation can have a negative effect of giving inhabitants a false sense of security that flooding may not happen again, leading to zoning policies being relaxed. (Text adapted from Lindenschmidt [2022] "Ice Destabilization Study - Phase 2", submitted to the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta, Canada)

Keywords: ice jam, flood hazard, flood risk river ice modelling, flood risk

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Authors: Helena Susana Afonso Alves, Natália Maria Rafael Canadas, Ana Maria Rodrigues

Abstract:

We examined the impact of governance rules on information asymmetry, using the turnover ratio and the bid-ask spread as proxies for the information asymmetry. We used a SEM model and analyzed the indirect relations through the voluntary disclosure of information and the organizational performance. We built a voluntary disclosure index based on the information firms provided in their annual reports and divided the governance characteristics in two constructs: directors’ and supervisors’ structures and ownership structure. We concluded that the ownership structure exerts a direct influence on share price and share liquidity, Otherwise, the directors’ and supervisors’ structures exert an indirect influence, through the organizational performance and the voluntary disclosure of information. The results also show that for firms with high levels of disclosure the bid-ask spread is lower. However, in firms with a high ownership concentration investors tend to increase the bid-ask spreads and trade less, which, in this case, reduces the liquidity of the stock. The failure to find the relationship between voluntary disclosure of information and the turnover ratio shows us that the liquidity of shares is more related to the greater or lesser concentration of shareholders, with the performance of their companies than with the access to information. Moreover, it is clear that the role that information disclosure plays is mainly at the level of price formation.

Keywords: corporate governance, information asymmetry, voluntary disclosure, structural equation modelling, SEM

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Authors: Dudam Bharath Kumar, Harsh Kumar, Naveed Ahmed

Abstract:

Vehicular traffic on the road-side plays a significant role in affecting the noise pollution in most of the cities over the world. To assess the correlation of the road-traffic on noise pollution in the city environment, continuous measurements were carried out in an entire daytime starting from 8:00 AM IST to 6:00 PM IST at a single point for each 5 minutes (8:00-8:05, 9:00-9:05, 10:00-10:05 AM, ...) near the KIIT University campus road. Noise levels were observed using a mobile operated app of android cell phone and a handheld noise meter. Calibration analysis shows high correlation about 0.89 for the study location for the day time period. Results show diurnal variability of atmospheric noise pollution levels go hand-in and with the vehicular number which pass through a point of observation. The range of noise pollution levels in the daytime period is observed as 55 to 75 dB(A). As a day starts, sudden upsurge of noise levels is observed from 65 to 71 dB(A) in the early morning, 64 dB(A) in late morning, regains the same quantity 68-71 dB(A) in the afternoon, and rises 70 dB(A) in the early evening. Vehicular number of the corresponding noise levels exhibits 115-120, 150-160, and 140-160, respectively. However, this preliminary study suggests the importance of vehicular traffic on noise pollution levels in the urban environment and further to study population exposed to noise levels. Innovative approaches help curb the noise pollution through modelling the traffic noise pollution spatially and temporally over the city environments.

Keywords: noise pollution, vehicular traffic, urban environment, noise meter

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