Search results for: hetero-occurrences species distribution model

Authors: Joserra Díez, Ainhoa Meñika, Iñaki Sanz-Azkue, Arritokieta Ortuzar

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Biodiversity provides humans with a great range of ecosystemic services; it is therefore an indispensable resource and a legacy to coming generations. However, in the last decades, the increasing exploitation of the Planet has caused a great loss of biodiversity and its acquaintance has decreased remarkably; especially in urbanized areas, due to the decreasing attachment of humans to nature. Yet, the Primary Education curriculum primes the identification of flora and fauna to guarantee the knowledge of children on their surroundings, so that they care for the environment as well as for themselves. In order to produce effective didactic material that meets the needs of both teachers and pupils, it is fundamental to diagnose the current situation. In the present work, the knowledge on biodiversity of 3^rd cycle Primary Education students in Biscay (n=98) and its relation to the size of the town/city of their school is discussed. Two tests have been used with such aim: one for tree identification and the other one so that the students enumerated the species of trees and animals they knew. Results reveal that knowledge of students on tree identification is scarce regardless the size of the city/town and of their school. On the other hand, animal species are better known than tree species.

Keywords: biodiversity, population, tree identification, animal identification

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Authors: Ayyavu Brama Dhayala Selvam

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Herbal medicines are gaining importance due to holistic nature and lesser side effects. Cycas beddomei Dyer is one of the highly exploited medicinal plants in India. Due to over-exploitation of male and female cones, young leaves and starch-bearing pithy stems for edible, medicinal and socio-cultural practices by the locals, tribals and traders, the plant population has drastically declined in its natural habitats. Cycas beddomei is an endemic to India. The current IUCN status of this plant species in the wild is endangered. Perhaps, it is the only species of Cycas enlisted in Appendix I of CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of wild fauna and flora). Endorsing the CITES decisions, the Government of India has placed C. beddomei in the “Negative List of Exports” during 1998. Though this plant has been banned legally, but illegally, it is highly exploited by different means. Therefore, conservation of this species is an urgent need of the hour. The present paper highlights unique morphological and anatomical characters of C. beddomei, along with its present status, major threats and conservation measures. Cycas beddomei can easily be identified by some of the distinguishing morphological and anatomical characters, viz., 2–4 mm wide leaflets with revolute margins; the apices of microsporophylls from the middle to apex of the pollen cones turn downwards on maturity; mucilage canal cells are seen in the midrib region of the leaflets; stomatal frequency is about 18 numbers at 250x; pollen grains are monocolpate and their diameter ranging from 22.5 to 30 µm.

Keywords: CITES, Cycas beddomei, endangered, endemic

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Pierre Tize Mha, Mohammad Jahazi, Amèvi Togne, Olivier Pantalé

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Large-size forged blocks made of medium carbon high-strength steels are extensively used in the automotive industry as dies for the production of bumpers and dashboards through the plastic injection process. The manufacturing process of the large blocks starts with ingot casting, followed by open die forging and a quench and temper heat treatment process to achieve the desired mechanical properties and numerical simulation is widely used nowadays to predict these properties before the experiment. But the temperature gradient inside the specimen remains challenging in the sense that the temperature before loading inside the material is not the same, but during the simulation, constant temperature is used to simulate the experiment because it is assumed that temperature is homogenized after some holding time. Therefore to be close to the experiment, real distribution of the temperature through the specimen is needed before the mechanical loading. Thus, We present here a robust algorithm that allows the calculation of the temperature gradient within the specimen, thus representing a real temperature distribution within the specimen before deformation. Indeed, most numerical simulations consider a uniform temperature gradient which is not really the case because the surface and core temperatures of the specimen are not identical. Another feature that influences the mechanical properties of the specimen is recrystallization which strongly depends on the deformation conditions and the type of deformation like Upsetting, Cogging...etc. Indeed, Upsetting and Cogging are the stages where the greatest deformations are observed, and a lot of microstructural phenomena can be observed, like recrystallization, which requires in-depth characterization. Complete dynamic recrystallization plays an important role in the final grain size during the process and therefore helps to increase the mechanical properties of the final product. Thus, the identification of the conditions for the initiation of dynamic recrystallization is still relevant. Also, the temperature distribution within the sample and strain rate influence the recrystallization initiation. So the development of a technique allowing to predict the initiation of this recrystallization remains challenging. In this perspective, we propose here, in addition to the algorithm allowing to get the temperature distribution before the loading stage, an analytical model leading to determine the initiation of this recrystallization. These two techniques are implemented into the Abaqus finite element software via the UAMP and VUHARD subroutines for comparison with a simulation where an isothermal temperature is imposed. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to describe the plastic behavior of the material is also implemented via the VUHARD subroutine. From the simulation, the temperature distribution inside the material and recrystallization initiation is properly predicted and compared to the literature models.

Keywords: dynamic recrystallization, finite element modeling, artificial neural network, numerical implementation

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Authors: Dibu Dave Mbako, Bin Cheng

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This paper study the stress variation of the welded joints in the rib-to-deck connection structure, the influence stress of the deck plate and u-rib thickness at different positions. A Finite-element model of orthotropic steel deck structure using solid element and shell element was established in ABAQUS. Under a single wheel load, the static response was analyzed to understand the structural behaviors and examine stress distribution. A parametric study showed that the geometric parameters have a significant effect on the hot spot stress at the weld toe, but has little impact on the stress concentration factor. The increase of the thickness of the deck plate will lead to the decrease of the hot spot stress at the weld toe and the maximum deflection of the deck plate. The surface stresses of the deck plate are significantly larger than those of the rib near the joint in the 80% weld penetration into the u-rib.

Keywords: orthotropic steel bridge deck, rib-to-deck connection, hot spot stress, finite element method, stress distribution

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Authors: Sikhou Drame, Arfang Diamanka

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In Senegal, the fishing sector plays an important role in socio-economic development. However, he is going through enormous difficulties, caused by the scarcity of fish on the Senegalese coast, the overexploitation of fishery resources. Based on this observation, the authorities are betting on the development of aquaculture. It is in this context that the exploration of fish from the highly consumed Sparidae family remains a good solution. Indeed, the Sparidae family has good characteristics for farming at sea. However, parasites can proliferate and destroy the efforts made to cultivate fish in confined areas. the knowledge of these parasites in particular the monogeneans, very specific to the sparidae fishes will allow to better know the bio-ecology of the fishes. Better know the main parasitic monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus of sparidae fish of the genus Pagrus harvested in Senegal. It will first be a question of identifying from the observation of the morpho-anatomical characters, Monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus, branchial parasites collected from three species of host: Pagrus caeruleostictus , Pagrus auriga and Pagrus africanus. Then to evaluate the spatial and temporary distribution of parasitic indices on two Dakar landing sites (Soumbédioune and Yarakh) and finally to determine their specificity. The fish examined were purchased directly from the landing sites in Dakar and then transported to the laboratory where they were identified, then dissected. The gills were examined under a magnifying glass and the monogeneans were harvested, fixed in 70% ethanol and then mounted between slide and coverslip. The identification of the parasites is based on the observation of the morpho-anatomical characters and on the measurements of the sclerified organs of the haptor and the male copulatory organ. In total out of the 90 individuals examined: Pagrus auriga (30), Pagrus africanus (30) and Pagrus caeruleostictus (30), 6 species of monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus (Monogenea, Diplectanidae) are obtained: L. sarculus, L. sigillatus, L.vicinus, L. rastellus, L. africanus n.sp and L. yarakhensis n.sp. Our results show that specimens of small sizes [15-20[cm are the most infested. The values of infestation intensity and abundance are higher in fish from Yarakh and also during the cold season. it is the species Pagrus caeruleostictus which records the highest parasitic loads in the two localities. the majority of the parasites identified have a strict or oioxene specificity. It appears from this study that fish of the genus Pagrus are highly parasitized by monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus with a general prevalence of 87.78%. Each infested fish has an average of 30 monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus.

Keywords: monogeneans, Lamellodiscus, Dakar coast, genus Pagrus

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Authors: Syed Toqueer, Omer Younus

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Terrorism, today, has emerged as a global menace with Pakistan being the most adversely affected state. Therefore, the motive behind this study is to empirically establish the linkage of terrorism with socio-economic (uneven income distribution, poverty and unemployment) and political nexuses so that a policy recommendation can be put forth to better approach this issue in Pakistan. For this purpose, the study employs two competing models, namely, the distributed lag model and OLS, so that findings of the model may be consolidated comprehensively, over the reference period of 1984-2012. The findings of both models are indicative of the fact that uneven income distribution of Pakistan is rather a contributing factor towards terrorism when measured through GDP per capita. This supports the hypothesis that immiserizing modernization theory is applicable for the state of Pakistan where the underprivileged are marginalized. Results also suggest that other socio-economic variables (poverty, unemployment and consumer confidence) can condense the brutality of terrorism once these conditions are catered to and improved. The rational of opportunity cost is at the base of this argument. Poor conditions of employment and poverty reduces the opportunity cost for individuals to be recruited by terrorist organizations as economic returns are considerably low and thus increasing the supply of volunteers and subsequently increasing the intensity of terrorism. The argument of political freedom as a means of lowering terrorism stands true. The more the people are politically repressed the more alternative and illegal means they will find to make their voice heard. Also, the argument that politically transitioning economy faces more terrorism is found applicable for Pakistan. Finally, the study contributes to an ongoing debate on which of the two set of factors are more significant with relation to terrorism by suggesting that socio-economic factors are found to be the primary causes of terrorism for Pakistan.

Keywords: terrorism, socioeconomic conditions, political freedom, distributed lag model, ordinary least square

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Irianes C. Gozali, Betty J.L. Laglbauer, Muhammad G. Salim, Sila K. Sari, Fahmi Fahmi, Selvia Oktaviyani

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Muncar, located off the eastern coast of Java, is an important fishing port for small-scale fleets which land mobulid rays as retained bycatch, primarily in drift gillnets. Due to overlap with fishing grounds in the Bali Strait, three devil ray species are landed in Muncar, the spinetail devil ray Mobula mobular, the bentfin devil ray Mobula thurstoni, and the Chilean devil ray Mobula tarapacana, which are all listed as Endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. However, despite the importance of life-history data to better manage stocks, such information is still rare or unavailable for Indonesian mobulid ray populations. Using morphometric data, reproductive assessments, and samples collected from dead specimens at fish markets from 2015-2019, we provide information on the maturity stage, reproductive periodicity, gestation, and size at parturition. A majority of immature individuals of all three devil ray species were recorded (<10% individuals in Mobula mobular to <30% individuals in Mobula thurstoni). Pregnant females of two species, Mobula mobular and Mobula thurstoni were recorded containing embryos of various developmental stages (each with a single embryo in the left functional uterus), while for Mobula tarapacana, no fetuses were found. The largest embryo recorded in M. mobular was within the range of that previously reported for neonates of the species in Indonesia (957 cm, for a 920-994 range), and represents a near-term embryo reflecting size at parturition. Low reproductive output was confirmed for the study-species. Based on this study, we infer that the Bali Straight is likely an important location for devil ray reproduction, which raises concern for the sustainability of mobulid ray populations in the face of bycatch in drift gillnets. Potential management approaches to tackle this issue are discussed.

Keywords: devil ray, mobulid, reproduction, Indonesia

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: S. R. A. Rahim, I. Musirin, M. M. Othman, M. H. Hussain

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Loss minimization is a long progressing issue mainly in distribution system. Nevertheless, its effect led to temperature rise due to significant voltage drop through the distribution line. Thus, compensation scheme should be proper scheduled in the attempt to alleviate the voltage drop phenomenon. Distributed generation has been profoundly known for voltage profile improvement provided that over-compensation or under-compensation phenomena are avoided. This paper addresses the issue of voltage improvement through different type DG installation. In ensuring optimal sizing and location of the DGs, predeveloped EMEFA technique was made to be used for this purpose. Incremental loading condition subjected to the system is the concern such that it is beneficial to the power system operator.

Keywords: distributed generation, EMEFA, power loss, voltage profile

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Authors: Talal Al-Bazali

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Air drilling has recently received increasing acceptance by the oil and gas industry due to its unique advantages. The main advantages of air drilling include the higher rate of penetration, less formation damage, lower risk of loss of circulation. However, these advantages cannot be fully realized if thermal effects in air drilling are not well understood and minimized. Due to its high frictional coefficient, low heat conductivity, and high compressibility, air can impact the temperature distribution of bit and thus affect its bit performances. Based on energy and mass balances, a transient thermal model that predicts bit temperature is presented along with numerical solutions in this paper. In addition, several important parameters that influence bit temperature distribution are analyzed. Simulation results show that the bit temperature increases with increasing weight on bit and rotary speed but decreases as the standpipe pressure and flow rate increase. These results can be used to optimize drilling operations and flow parameters for an improved bit performance as shown in this paper.

Keywords: air drilling, rate of penetration, temperature, rotary speed

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Adnan A. E. Darwish

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The predatory potential and preference of both larvae and adult of seven-spot ladybird, Coccinella septempunctata Linnaeus and the eleven-spot ladybird, Coccinella undecimpunctata Linnaeus to the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer), the cotton aphid, Aphis gossypii Glover, the bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (Linnaeus) and onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman were investigated under laboratory conditions at varying prey densities at faculty of Agriculture, Damanhour university, Egypt. There were significant differences between the consumed numbers of the four different species by the two different lady beetle species. The most consumed prey by C. septempunctata was the A. gossypii followed by R. padi then M. persicae and finally T. tabaci and these results were repeated in case of C. undecimpunctata. As the grubs of C. septempunctata and C. undecimpunctata developed from 1st to 4th larval instars, the consumption rate from aphid species and thrips increased. The consumption rate of M. persicae, A. gossypii, R. padi and T. tabaci significantly increased with the advancement in the larval stage of the predator. The forth larval instar of C. septempunctata and C. undecimpunctata exhibited the highest predatory potential comparing to the first, second and third larval instars. The number of prey eaten by adult stage or different instars of larvae of the two predators increased significantly with prey density, reaching the maximum value when 150 preys were provided compared with 50 and 100 preys.

Keywords: predatory potential, Coccinella septempunctata, Coccinella undecimpunctata, Thrips tabaci, Myzus persicae, Aphis gossypii, Rhopalosiphum padi

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: Néné Gallé Kide, Mamadou Dia, Lemhaba Ould Yarba, Youssouf Kone, Fatimetou Mint Khalil, Hajar Bouksir, Ghislane Salhi, Younès Saoud

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The diet of Sarotherodon melanotheron and Tilapia guineensis were investigated in the National Park of Banc d'Arguin (PNBA) from September 2012 to October 2013. A total of 499 individuals ranging in size between 219 and 400 mm total length of S. melanotheron (253 males and 246 females), and 280 individuals of T.guineensis (229 males and 51 females) ranged between 180 and 424mm total length. We used for studying the feeding habits of both two species the frequency of occurrence method. The coefficient of emptiness was 40.88% for S. melanotheron and 38.57% for T. guineensis. Both two species were herbivorous and very close feedings. Their diet consists of Seagrass, green, red, blue, and brown algae, diatoms, gastropods, bivalves, Crustaceans, and mud. The Seagrass and green algae were prey preference of these two species. The diet feeding showed that the composition varies slightly depending on the season and size of individuals.

Keywords: Cichlidae, trophic ecology, National park, Banc d'Arguin, Mauritania

Procedia PDF Downloads 796

Authors: Benjamin Sonnenreich

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Brittle fracture failure probability is best described using a stochastic approach which is based on the 'weakest link concept' and the connection between a microstructure and macroscopic fracture scale. A general theoretical and experimental framework is presented to predict the uniaxial strength distribution according to independent uniaxial test data. The framework takes as input the applied stresses, the geometry, the materials, the defect distributions and the relevant random variables from uniaxial test results and gives as output an overall failure probability that can be used to improve the reliability of practical designs. Additionally, the method facilitates comparisons of strength data from several sources, uniaxial tests, and sample geometries.

Keywords: brittle fracture, strength distribution, uniaxial, weakest link concept

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Changsoo Chon, Sangkuy Han, Donghyun Seo, Jihyung Park, Bokku Kang, Hansung Kim, Keyoungjin Chun, Cheolwoong Ko

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The purpose of the study is to develop a finite element model based on 3D bone structural images of Micro-CT and to analyze the stress distribution for the osteoporosis mouse femora. In this study, results of finite element analysis show that the early osteoporosis of mouse model decreased a bone density in trabecular region; however, the bone density in cortical region increased.

Keywords: micro-CT, finite element analysis, osteoporosis, bone strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Anne R. Fernandez, Mohammad Akmal Adnan, Tanes Prasat, Indu Bala Jaganath, Brian Kirby, Kamalan Jeevaratnam

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Introduction: Plants from the Phyllantus genus have been used indigenously for the treatment of a variety of ailments for generations. A cocktail of phytonutrients prepared from a plant of the genus Phyllanthus has demonstrated the potential to alleviate ailments which include cardiovascular disorders. In this study, we investigated the cholesterol modulating properties of a highly purified proprietary extract of a Phyllanthus species in hypercholesteraemic mice. Methods: Hypercholesteraemia was induced in ICR mice by ad-libitum feeding of high fat diet daily for six weeks. The mice were then divided into 3 groups and force fed with 10mg/kg of atorvastatin, 200mg/kg of the proprietary Phyllanthus extract and water respectively. Blood samples were taken at the end of fourth week of treatment by a tail prick. At the end of the eighth week of treatment, mice were sacrificed and serum levels of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and triglycerides were measured. Results: The mean cholesterol levels in the mice fed with high fat diet were 44% (p < 0.05) higher than the mice on normal diet thus validating the model developed. The plasma HDL was significantly elevated in mice treated with the formulation (p ˂ 0.05) in comparison to the statin-treated and control mice. The total cholesterol levels in the mice treated with the proprietary extract were reduced significantly (p < 0.05) at the end of 4 weeks of treatment in comparison to the mice treated with atorvastatin. By the end of 8 weeks of treatment, there was no significant difference in the cholesterol levels of the mice in all groups. Conclusion: These results demonstrate that this proprietary extract from Phyllanthus species has the beneficial effect of reducing total cholesterol level more rapidly than atorvastatin and increasing HDL levels. Since an increase in the HDL cholesterol can reduce the risk of heart disease, this proprietary extract is a useful and safe therapeutic option compared to atorvastatin.

Keywords: high-density lipoprotein, hypercholesteraemic mice model, ICR mice, Phyllanthus spp.

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Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

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This study aimed at developing an inverse heat transfer approach for predicting the time-varying freezing front and the temperature distribution of tumors during cryosurgery. Using a temperature probe pressed against the layer of tumor, the inverse approach is able to predict simultaneously the metabolic heat generation and the blood perfusion rate of the tumor. Once these parameters are predicted, the temperature-field and time-varying freezing fronts are determined with the direct model. The direct model rests on one-dimensional Pennes bioheat equation. The phase change problem is handled with the enthalpy method. The Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined to the Broyden Method (BM) is used to solve the inverse model. The effect (a) of the thermal properties of the diseased tissues; (b) of the initial guesses for the unknown thermal properties; (c) of the data capture frequency; and (d) of the noise on the recorded temperatures is examined. It is shown that the proposed inverse approach remains accurate for all the cases investigated.

Keywords: cryosurgery, inverse heat transfer, Levenberg-Marquardt method, thermal properties, Pennes model, enthalpy method

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Authors: Randy Price, Harbir Antil, Rainald Löhner, Fumiya Togashi

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Chemically reacting flows are common in engineering applications such as hypersonic flow, combustion, explosions, manufacturing process, and environmental assessments. The number of reactions in combustion simulations can exceed 100, making a large number of flow and combustion problems beyond the capabilities of current supercomputers. Motivated by this, deep neural networks (DNNs) will be introduced with the goal of eventually replacing the existing chemistry software packages with DNNs. The DNNs used in this paper are motivated by the Residual Neural Network (ResNet) architecture. In the continuum limit, ResNets become an optimization problem constrained by an ODE. Such a feature allows the use of ODE control techniques to enhance the DNNs. In this work, DNNs are constructed, which update the species un at the nᵗʰ timestep to uⁿ⁺¹ at the n+1ᵗʰ timestep. Parallel DNNs are trained for each species, taking in uⁿ as input and outputting one component of uⁿ⁺¹. These DNNs are applied to multiple species and reactions common in chemically reacting flows such as H₂-O₂ reactions. Experimental results show that the DNNs are able to accurately replicate the dynamics in various situations and in the presence of errors.

Keywords: chemical reacting flows, computational fluid dynamics, ODEs, residual neural networks, ResNets

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Authors: A. Cittadino, P. Gantes, C. Coviella, M. Casset, A. Sanchez Caro

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Three currently active landfills receive the waste from Buenos Aires city and the Great Buenos Aires suburbs. One of the first landfills to receive solid waste from this area was located in Villa Dominico, some 7 km south from Buenos Aires City. With an area of some 750 ha, including riparian habitats, divided into 14 cells, it received solid wastes from June 1979 through February 2004. In December 2010, a biological monitoring program was set up by CEAMSE and Universidad Nacional de Lujan, still operational to date. The aim of the monitoring program is to assess the state of several biological groups within the landfill and to follow their dynamics overtime in order to identify if any, early signs of damage the landfill activities might have over the biota present. Bird and rodent populations, aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates’ populations, cells vegetation coverage, and surrounding areas vegetation coverage and main composition are followed by quarterly samplings. Bird species richness and abundance were estimated by observation over walk transects on each environment. A total of 74 different species of birds were identified. Species richness and diversity were high for both riparian surrounding areas and within the landfill. Several grassland -typical of the 'Pampa'- bird species were found within the landfill, as well as some migratory and endangered bird species. Sherman and Tomahawk traps are set overnight for small mammal sampling. Rodent populations are just above detection limits, and the few specimens captured belong mainly to species common to rural areas, instead of city-dwelling species. The two marsupial species present in the region were captured on occasions. Aquatic macroinvertebrates were sampled on a watercourse upstream and downstream the outlet of the landfill’s wastewater treatment plant and are used to follow water quality using biological indices. Water quality ranged between weak and severe pollution; benthic invertebrates sampled before and after the landfill, show no significant differences in water quality using the IBMWP index. Insect biota from yellow sticky cards and pitfall traps showed over 90 different morphospecies, with Shannon diversity index running from 1.9 to 3.9, strongly affected by the season. An easy-to-perform non-expert demandant method was used to assess vegetation coverage. Two scales of determination are utilized: field observation (1 m resolution), and Google Earth images (that allow for a better than 5 m resolution). Over the eight year period of the study, vegetation coverage over the landfill cells run from a low 83% to 100% on different cells, with an average between 95 to 99% for the entire landfill depending on seasonality. Surrounding area vegetation showed almost 100% coverage during the entire period, with an average density from 2 to 6 species per sq meter and no signs of leachate damaged vegetation.

Keywords: biological indicators, biota monitoring, landfill species diversity, waste management

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Awais Ahmed, Javed Iqbal

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Pakistan has been for many years facing extreme challenges in energy deficit due to the shortage of power generation compared to increasing demand. A part of this energy deficit is also contributed by the power lost in transmission and distribution network. Unfortunately, distribution companies are not equipped with modern technologies and methods to identify and eliminate these losses. According to estimate, total energy lost in early 2000 was between 20 to 26 percent. To address this issue the present research study was designed with the objectives of developing a standalone GIS application for distribution companies having the capability of loss calculation as well as identification of overloaded transformers. For this purpose, Hilal Road feeder in Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (FESCO) was selected as study area. An extensive GPS survey was conducted to identify each consumer, linking it to the secondary pole of the transformer, geo-referencing equipment and documenting conductor sizes. To identify overloaded transformer, accumulative kWH reading of consumer on transformer was compared with threshold kWH. Technical losses of 11kV and 220V lines were calculated using the data from substation and resistance of the network calculated from the geo-database. To automate the process a standalone GIS application was developed using ArcObjects with engineering analysis capabilities. The application uses GIS database developed for 11kV and 220V lines to display and query spatial data and present results in the form of graphs. The result shows that about 14% of the technical loss on both high tension (HT) and low tension (LT) network while about 4 out of 15 general duty transformers were found overloaded. The study shows that GIS can be a very effective tool for distribution companies in management and planning of their distribution network.

Keywords: geographical information system, GIS, power distribution, distribution transformers, technical losses, GPS, SDSS, spatial decision support system

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: M. P. S. Tomar, Himanshu R. Joshi, P. Jagapathi Ramayya, Rakhi Vaish, A. B. Shrivastav

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The morphology of an organ system varies according to the feeding habit, habitat and nature of their life-style. This phenomenon is called adaptation. During evolution these morphological changes make the system species specific so the study on the differential characteristics of them makes the understanding regarding the morpho-physiological adaptation easier. Hence the present study was conducted on esophagus of pariah kite, median egret, goshawk, dove and duck. Esophagus in all birds was comprised of four layers viz. Tunica mucosa, Tunica submucosa, Tunica muscularis and Tunica adventitia. The mucosa of esophagus showed longitudinal folds thus the lumen was irregular. The epithelium was stratified squamous in all birds but in Median egret the cells were large and vacuolated. Among these species very thick epithelium was observed in goshawk and duck but keratinization was highest in dove. The stratum spongiosum was 7-8 layers thick in both Pariah kite and Goshawk. In all birds, the glands were alveolar mucous secreting type. In Median egret and Pariah kite, these were round or oval in shape and with or without lumen depending upon the functional status whereas in Goshawk the shape of the glands varied from spherical / oval to triangular with openings towards the lumen according to the functional activity and in dove these glands were oval in shape. The glands were numerous in number in egret while one or two in each fold in goshawk and less numerous in other three species. The core of the mucosal folds was occupied by the lamina propria and showed large number of collagen fibers and cellular infiltration in pariah kite, egret and dove where as in goshawk and duck, collagen and reticular fibers were fewer and cellular infiltration was lesser. Lamina muscularis was very thick in all species and it was comprised of longitudinally arranged smooth muscle fibers. In Median egret, it was in wavy pattern. Tunica submucosa was very thin in all species. Tunica muscularis was mostly comprised of circular smooth muscle bundles in all species but the longitudinal bundles were very few in number and not continuous. The tunica adventitia was comprised of loose connective tissue fibers containing collagen and elastic fibers with numerous small blood vessels in all species. Further, it was observed that the structure of esophagus in birds varies according to their feeding habits.

Keywords: dove, duck, egret, esophagus, goshawk, kite

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Authors: Awet Araya

Abstract:

Cochliobolus sativus ((anamorphic stage: Bipolaris sorokiniana (synonyms: Helminthosporium sorokinianum, Drechslera sorokiniana, and Helminthosporium sativum)) is an important pathogen of cereal crops. Many other grass species are also hosts for this fungus. Yield losses have been reported from many regions, especially where barley and wheat are commercially cultivated. The fungus has a worldwide distribution. The pathogen causes root rot, seedling blight, spot blotch, head blight, and black point. Environmental conditions affect disease development. Most of the time, fungus survives as mycelia and conidia. Pseudothecium of the fungus is not commonly encountered and probably not important in the epidemiology of the disease. The fungus can be in seed, soil, or in plant parts. Crop rotation, proper fertilization, reducing other stress factors, fungicide treatments, and resistant cultivars may be used for the control of the disease.

Keywords: Cochliobolus sativus, barley, cultivars, root rot

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Dingding Chen, Kazuo Arakawa, Masakazu Uchino, Changheng Xu

Abstract:

Vacuum assisted resin transfer moulding (VARTM) is a promising manufacture process for making large and complex fiber reinforced composite structures. However, the complexity of the flow of the resin in the infusion stage usually leads to nonuniform property distribution of the produced composite part. In order to control the flow of the resin, the situation of flow should be mastered. For the safety of the usage of the produced composite in practice, the understanding of the property distribution is essential. In this paper, we did some trials on monitoring the resin infusion stage and evaluation for the fiber volume fraction distribution of the VARTM produced composite using the digital image correlation methods. The results show that 3D-DIC is valid on monitoring the resin infusion stage and it is possible to use 2D-DIC to estimate the distribution of the fiber volume fraction on a FRP plate.

Keywords: digital image correlation, VARTM, FRP, fiber volume fraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Michel A. Thomet

Abstract:

A discrete-event simulation model was used to perform a Reliability-Availability-Maintainability (RAM) study of a large petrochemical complex which included sixteen process units, and seven feeds and intermediate streams. All the feeds and intermediate streams have associated storage tanks, so that if a processing unit fails and shuts down, the downstream units can keep producing their outputs. This also helps the upstream units which do not have to reduce their outputs, but can store their excess production until the failed unit restart. Each process unit and each pipe section carrying the feeds and intermediate streams has a probability of failure with an associated distribution and a Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), as well as a distribution of the time to restore and a Mean Time To Restore (MTTR). The utilities supporting the process units can also fail and have their own distributions with specific MTBF and MTTR. The model runs are for ten years or more and the runs are repeated several times to obtain statistically relevant results. One of the main results is the On-Stream factor (OSF) of each process unit (percent of hours in a year when the unit is running in nominal conditions). One of the objectives of the study was to investigate if the storage capacity of each of the feeds and the intermediate stream was adequate. This was done by increasing the storage capacities in several steps and through running the simulation to see if the OSF were improved and by how much. Other objectives were to see if the failure of the utilities were an important factor in the overall OSF, and what could be done to reduce their failure rates through redundant equipment.

Keywords: business continuity, on-stream factor, petrochemical, RAM study, simulation, MTBF

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Medhat Abdallah, Ahmed Abdrabou

Abstract:

Tutankhamen tomb was discovered on November 1922 by Howard carter, the grave was relatively intact and crammed full of the most beautiful burial items and furniture, the black shrine-shaped boxes on sleds studied here founded in treasury chamber. This study aims to identify the wood species used in making those shrines, illustrate technology of manufacture. Optical Microscope (OM), 3D software and Imaging Processes including; Visible light, Raking light and Visible-induced infrared luminescence were effective in illustrating wooden joints and techniques of manufacture. The results revealed that cedar of Lebanon Cedrus libani and sycamore fig Ficus sycomorus had been used for making the shrines’ boards and sleds while tamarisk Tamarix sp., Turkey Oak Quercus cerris L., and Sidder (nabk) Zizyphus spina christi used for making dowels. The wooden joint of mortise and tenon was used to connect the body of the shrine to the sled, while wooden pegs used to connect roof and cornice to the shrine body.

Keywords: Tutankhamen, wood species, optical microscope, Cedrus libani, Ficus sycomorus

Procedia PDF Downloads 209

Authors: Maryam Kakavand, Samira Entezari, Sara Khoshjamalfekri, Raghad Mimar

Abstract:

The objective of this study is 1) to compare elite female and beginner taekwondo players in terms of plantar pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, contact area, mean pressure, and right and left longitudinal arches, and 2) to compare preferred and non-preferred limbs among elite players. To the best of authors’ knowledge, as of yet, there is no information available about the plantar pressure distribution and arch index among taekwondo players. Material and Methods: An analytical-comparative research method is applied. Therefore seven elite athletes and eight novice athletes were selected. The emed-C50 platform was used to assess plantar pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, contact area, mean pressure of different areas, and planter longitudinal arch in a second step protocol. Independent t-test and dependent t-test were used at a level of 0.05 to compare the elites and beginners' right and left feet, and preferred and non-preferred limbs among elite athletes, respectively. Results: In comparing the right and left limbs of elite and beginner groups, findings indicate that there is only a significant difference in the mean pressure of the first metatarsal of the right foot. Findings also showed a significant difference in the contact area of the toes 3, 4, 5 regions between elites’ preferred and non-preferred limbs. However, no significant difference was found between the two groups’ right and left limbs and elites’ preferred and non-preferred limbs in terms of pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, and arch index. Conclusion: It seems that taekwondo exercises have affected pressure distribution patterns among advanced players causing some differences in their planter pressure distribution pattern when compared to that of beginners. Therefore, taekwondo exercises may be a factor contributing to asymmetry performance in preferred and non-preferred limbs.

Keywords: planter pressure, arch index, taekwondo, elite

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Srinivasa Rao Gadde

Abstract:

In this article, we considered a group acceptance sampling plans for exponentiated half logistic distribution when the life-test is truncated at a pre-specified time. It is assumed that the index parameter of the exponentiated half logistic distribution is known. The design parameters such as the number of groups and the acceptance number are obtained by satisfying the producer’s and consumer’s risks at the specified quality levels in terms of medians and 10th percentiles under the assumption that the termination time and the number of items in each group are pre-fixed. Finally, an example is given to illustration the methodology.

Keywords: group acceptance sampling plan, operating characteristic, consumer and producer’s risks, truncated life-test

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Prashant Motwani, Arghadeep Laskar

Abstract:

The transfer of prestress force from prestressing strands to the surrounding concrete is dependent on the bond between the two materials. It is essential to understand the actual bond stress distribution along the transfer length to determine the transfer zone in pre-tensioned concrete. A 3-D nonlinear finite element model has been developed to simulate the transfer of prestress force from steel to concrete in pre-tensioned bridge girders through thermal strain technique using commercially available package ABAQUS. Full-scale bridge girder has been analyzed with thermal strain approach where the damage plasticity constitutive model has been used to model concrete. Parameters such as concrete strain, effective prestress, upward camber and longitudinal stress have been compared with analytical results. The discrepancy between numerical and analytical values was within 20%. The paper also presents a convergence study on mesh density and aspect ratio of the elements to perform the finite element study.

Keywords: aspect ratio, bridge girder, centre of gravity of strand, mesh density, finite element model, pretensioned bridge girder

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Mohamed Idris S. Abozaed, Suliman Mohamed Elrajoubi

Abstract:

Researches and concerns in power quality gained significant momentum in the field of power electronics systems over the last two decades globally. This sudden increase in the number of concerns over power quality problems is a result of the huge increase in the use of non-linear loads. In this paper, power quality evaluation of some distribution networks at Misurata - Libya has been done using a power quality and energy analyzer (Fluke 437 Series II). The results of this evaluation are used to minimize the problems of power quality. The analysis shows the main power quality problems that exist and the level of awareness of power quality issues with the aim of generating a start point which can be used as guidelines for researchers and end users in the field of power systems.

Keywords: power quality disturbances, power quality evaluation, statistical analysis, electrical distribution networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 536

Authors: Zhou Jianhong

Abstract:

Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 522