Search results for: market factors

Authors: Irina Bondarenko, Olga Vandina

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The theory of evolutionary economics is the basis for preparation and application of methods forming the stock market infrastructure development concept. The authors believe that the basis for the process of formation and development of the stock market model infrastructure in Russia is the theory of large systems. This theory considers the financial market infrastructure as a whole on the basis of macroeconomic approach with the further definition of its aims and objectives. Evaluation of the prospects for interaction of securities market institutions will enable identifying the problems associated with the development of this system. The interaction of elements of the stock market infrastructure allows to reduce the costs and time of transactions, thereby freeing up resources of market participants for more efficient operation. Thus, methodology of the transaction analysis allows to determine the financial infrastructure as a set of specialized institutions that form a modern quasi-stable system. The financial infrastructure, based on international standards, should include trading systems, regulatory and supervisory bodies, rating agencies, settlement, clearing and depository organizations. Distribution of financial assets, reducing the magnitude of transaction costs, increased transparency of the market are promising tasks in the solution for questions of services level and quality increase provided by institutions of the securities market financial infrastructure. In order to improve the efficiency of the regulatory system, it is necessary to provide "standards" for all market participants. The development of a clear regulation for the barrier to the stock market entry and exit, provision of conditions for the development and implementation of new laws regulating the activities of participants in the securities market, as well as formulation of proposals aimed at minimizing risks and costs, will enable the achievement of positive results. The latter will be manifested in increasing the level of market participant security and, accordingly, the attractiveness of this market for investors and issuers.

Keywords: institutional infrastructure, financial assets, regulatory system, stock market, transparency of the market

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Authors: Maziyar Nouraee

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Electronic markets in recent decades contribute remarkably in business transactions. Many organizations consider traditional ways of trade non-economical and therefore they do trade only through electronic markets. There are different categorizations of electronic markets functions. In one classification, functions of electronic markets are categorized into classes as information, transactions, and value added. In the present paper, effects of the three classes on the two major elements of the supply chain management are measured. The two elements are decrease in the product unit cost and reduction in response time to the customer. The results of the current research show that among nine minor elements related to the three classes of electronic markets functions, six factors and three factors influence on reduction of the product unit cost and reduction of response time to the customer, respectively.

Keywords: electronic commerce, electronic market, B2B trade, supply chain management

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Authors: Nadia Sghaier

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In this paper, we examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of the Tunisian stock market and 12 sectors over a recent period from 23 March 2020 to 18 August 2021, including several waves and the introduction of vaccination. The empirical study is conducted using cointegration techniques which allows for long and short-run relationships. The obtained results indicate that both daily growth in confirmed cases and deaths have a negative and significant effect on the stock market returns. In particular, this effect differs across sectors. It seems more pronounced in financial, consumer goods and industrials sectors. These findings have important implications for investors to predict the behavior of the stock market or sectors returns and to implement hedging strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: Tunisian stock market, sectors, COVID-19 pandemic, cointegration techniques

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Authors: Nada Souissi, Mourad Mroua

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The main purpose of this study is to examine the interaction between financial asset volatility, economic factors and investor's behavioral indicators related to both the company's and the markets stocks for the period from January 2000 to January2020. Using multiple linear regression and Bayesian Networks modeling, results show a positive and negative relationship between investor's psychology index, economic factors and predicted stock market return. We reveal that the application of the Bayesian Discrete Network contributes to identify the different cause and effect relationships between all economic, financial variables and psychology index.

Keywords: Financial asset return predictability, Economic factors, Investor's psychology index, Bayesian approach, Probabilistic networks, Parametric learning

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Authors: Hajer Habib, Ghazi Boulila

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The objective of this paper is to present our contribution to the theoretical literature through a simple theoretical model dealing with the effect of transferring funds on the labor market of the countries of origin and on the other hand to test this relationship empirically in the case of Tunisia. The methodology used consists of estimating a panel of the nine main destinations of the Tunisian diaspora in Europe between 1994 and 2014 in order to better value the net effect of these migratory financial flows on unemployment through population growth. The empirical results show that the main factors explaining the decision to emigrate are the economic factors related mainly to the income differential, the demographic factors related to the differential age structure of the origin and host populations, and the cultural factors linked basically to the mastery of the language. Indeed, the stock of migrants is one of the main determinants of the transfer of migratory funds to Tunisia. But there are other variables that do not lack importance such as the economic conditions linked by the host countries. This shows that Tunisian migrants react more to economic conditions in European countries than in Tunisia. The economic situation of European countries dominates the numbers of emigrants as an explanatory factor for the amount of transfers from Tunisian emigrants to their country of origin. Similarly, it is clear that there is an indirect effect of transfers on unemployment in Tunisia. This suggests that the demographic transition conditions the effects of transferring funds on the level of unemployment.

Keywords: demographic changes, international migration, labor market, remittances

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Authors: Isabel L. Guidote

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Continued advancements and innovation in the technological arena may yield both beneficial and detrimental effects to market competition in the Philippines. This paper discusses recent developments in the digital sphere which have resulted in improved access to the Philippine market for both producers and consumers. Acknowledging that these developments are likely to disrupt or alter prevailing market conditions, this paper likewise tackles competition theories of harm that may arise as a result of such technological innovations, with reference to cases decided by foreign competition authorities and the European Commission. As the Philippine moves closer to the digital frontier, it is imperative that producers, consumers, and regulators alike be well-equipped to address the risks and challenges posed by these rapid advancements in technology.

Keywords: antitrust, competition law, market competition, technology

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Authors: Hailu Getnet

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This study focus on reverse innovation on performance outcomes across developed and subsistence markets context. The subsistence market consists two third of the world population and the largest international market. To date, it has been neglected because of its issues of perceived challenges and seeming unattractiveness compared to the established markets in the west. However, subsistence markets are becoming source of reverse innovation; an innovation that is likely to be adopted first in developing world and successfully traded globally. In response, there is a growing interest on reverse innovation to power the future. Based on the theories of innovation and growing subsistence market literatures, the study propose drivers and outcomes of reverse innovation, a potential similarities and difference in benefiting and challenging firms and consumers in subsistence and developed markets.

Keywords: reverse innovation, subsistence market, developing world, developed market

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Authors: Agnieszka Zalejska-Jonsson

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The Swedish Green Building Council (SGBC) was established in 2009. Since then, over 1000 buildings have been certified, of which approximately 600 are newly produced and 340 are residential buildings. During that time, approximately 2000 apartment buildings have been built in Sweden. This means that over a five- year period 17% of residential buildings have been certified according to the environmental building scheme. The certification of the building is not a guarantee of environmental progress but it gives us an indication of the extent of the progress. The overarching aim of this study is to investigate the factors behind the relatively slow evolution of the green residential housing market in Sweden. The intention is to examine stated willingness to pay (WTP) for green and low energy apartments, and to explore which factors have a significant effect on stated WTP among apartment owners. A green building was defined as a building certified according to the environmental scheme and a low energy building as a building designed and constructed with high energy efficiency goals. Data for this study were collected through a survey conducted among occupants of comparable apartment buildings: two green and one conventional. The total number of received responses was 429: green A (N=160), response rate 42%; green B (N=138) response rate 35%, and conventional (N=131) response rate 43%. The study applied a quasi-experimental method. Survey responses regarding factors affecting purchase of apartment, stated WTP and environmental literacy have been analysed using descriptive statistics, the Mann–Whitney (rank sum) test and logistic models. Comments received from respondents have been used for further interpretation of results. Results indicate that environmental education has a significant effect on stated WTP. Occupants who declared higher WTP showed a higher level of environmental literacy and indicated that energy efficiency was one of the important factors that affected their decision to buy an apartment. Generally, the respondents were more likely to pay more for low energy buildings than for green buildings. This is to a great extent a consequence of rational customer behaviour and difficulty in apprehending the meaning of green building certification. The analysis shows that people living in green buildings indicate higher WTP for both green and low energy buildings, the difference being statistically significant. It is concluded that growth in the green housing market in Sweden might be achieved if policymakers and developers engage in active education in the environmental labelling system. The demand for green buildings is more likely to increase when the difference between green and conventional buildings is easily understood and information is not only delivered by the estate agent, but is part of an environmental education programme.

Keywords: consumer, environmental education, housing market, stated WTP, Sweden

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Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

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The paper examines the market of bioproducts in the world and in Georgia. The experience of European countries in the field of production of bioproducts is shown, the level of interest of the population in these products is presented, and the tendency of the demand for them to grow is evaluated. Objectives. The purpose of the research is to identify modern challenges and develop recommendations for development opportunities based on the analysis of the European and local market of organic products. Methodologies. General and specific methods are used in the research process: comparative analysis, induction, deduction. A desk study has been conducted. Findings. It has been revealed that the production of organic products in Georgia is significantly behind the European requirements, in the market of organic products of Georgia there is a formation of a layer of consumers who are in favor of healthy food and are ready to pay a different price. Conclusions. Based on the analysis of the bioproducts market, appropriate recommendations are proposed, namely, the introduction of innovative technologies; financial and legal support by the state; provision of consulting services on the tax system; Elimination of asymmetric information in the market and others.

Keywords: bioproducts market, European experience, production of bioproducts, layer of consumers.

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Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

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This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: machine learning, stock market trading, logistic regression, cluster analysis, factor analysis, decision trees, neural networks, automated stock investment system

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Authors: Tarah Bouaricha

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The impact of worst natural disasters is analysed in terms of insured losses which happened between 2010 and 2014 on S&P insurance index. Event study analysis is used to test whether natural disasters impact insurance index stock market price. There is no negative impact on insurance stock market price around the disasters event. To analyse the reaction of insurance stock market, normal returns (NR), abnormal returns (AR), cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) and a parametric test on AR and on CAR are used.

Keywords: study event, natural disasters, insurance, reinsurance, stock market

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Authors: Mats Nilsson

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The European electricity markets have been changing from a regulated market, to in some places a deregulated market, and are now experiencing a strong influence of renewable support systems. Firm’s that rely on subsidies have a different business logic than firms acting in a market context. The article proposes that an offspring to the regular business models, the business-to-citizen, should be used. The case of the European electricity market frames the concept of a business-citizen business model, and a research agenda for this concept is outlined.

Keywords: business logic, business model, subsidies, business-to-citizen

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Authors: Irfan Ullah Munir, Shen Yue, Muhammad Shahzad Ijaz, Saad Hussain, Syeda Yumna Zaidi

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Financial literacy is fundamental to every decision-making process and has received attention from researchers, regulatory bodies and policy makers in the recent past. This study is an attempt to evaluate financial literacy in an emerging economy, particularly Pakistan, and its influence on people's stock market participation. Data of this study was collected through a structured questionnaire from a sample of 300 respondents. EFA is used to check the convergent and discriminant validity. Data is analyzed using Hayes (2013) approach. A set of demographic control variables that have passed the mean difference test is used. We demonstrate that participants with financial literacy tend to invest more in the stock market. We also find that association among financial literacy and participation in stock market gets moderated by gender.

Keywords: Financial literacy, Stock market participation, Gender, PSX

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Authors: Riktesh Srivastava

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Online Shopping have established an astonishing evolution in the last few years. And it is now apparent that B2C architecture is becoming progressively imperative channel for even traditional brick and mortar type traders as well. In this completion knowing customers and predicting behavior are extremely important. More important, when any customer logs onto the B2C architecture, the traces of their buying patterns can be stored and used for future predictions. Such a prediction is called Customer Lifetime Value (CLV). Earlier, we used Net Present Value to do so, however, it ignores two important aspects of B2C architecture, “market risks” and “big amount of customer data”. Now, we use RFM- Recency, Frequency and Monetary Value to estimate the CLV, and as the term exemplifies, market risks, is well sheltered. Big Data Analysis is also roofed in RFM, which gives real exploration of the Big Data and lead to a better estimation for future cash flow from customers. In the present paper, 6 factors (collected from varied sources) are used to determine as to what attracts the customers to the B2C architecture. For these 6 factors, RFM is computed for 3 years (2013, 2014 and 2015) respectively. CLV and Revenue are the two parameters defined using RFM analysis, which gives the clear picture of the future predictions.

Keywords: CLV, RFM, revenue, recency, frequency, monetary value

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Authors: Mei-Fang Wu, Shu-Li Wang, Feng-Tsung Cheng

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Highly developed technology and highly competitive global market highlight the important role of competitive advantages and operation performances in sustainable company operation. Activity-Based Costing (ABC) provides accurate operation cost and operation performance information. Rich literature provide relevant research with cases study on Activity-Based Costing application, and yet, there is no research studying on cause relationship between key success factors of applying Activity-Based Costing and its specific outcomes, such as profitability or share market. These relationships provide the ways to handle the key success factors to achieve the specific outcomes for ensuring to promote the competitive advantages and operation performances. The main purposes of this research are exploring the key success paths by Key Success Paths approach which will lead the ways to apply Activity-Base Costing. The Key Success Paths is the innovative method which is exploring the cause relationships and explaining what are the effects of key success factors to specific outcomes of Activity-Based Costing implementation. The cause relationships between key success factors and successful specific outcomes are Key Success Paths (KSPs). KSPs are the guidelines to lead the cost management strategies to achieve the goals of competitive advantages and operation performances. The research findings indicate that good management system design may impact the good outcomes of Activity-Based Costing application and achieve to outstanding competitive advantage, operating performance and profitability as well by KSPs exploration.

Keywords: activity-based costing, key success factors, key success paths approach, key success paths, key failure paths

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Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri

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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.

Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as non-storability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: financial derivatives, forward, futures, options, risk management

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Authors: Fahad Ahmed Qureshi

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There were abundant renowned financial markets in Pre-Islamic Arabs. Most of those were patterned and settled during pre-particularized sunshine. Those markets were classified either as vernacular markets helping the neighboring clans, or habitual markets that people sojourned to from all articulations of the Arabian Peninsula, such as Okaz near Mecca. Some of those markets had leading significance due to their geographical positions, such as Prime market of Eden, because of their entanglement in international trade i.e. with the markets of Sub-Continent, Abyssinia, Persia and China. Other markets such as Market of Yamamah annex its gist from being situated on the caravan crossroads. Islamic worldview and Islamic epistemology base of Financial Market’s realistic theory, pragmatic model and operative approach is moderately constrained in terms of its growth. The existent situation only parasol the form of accommodative-modification and splendid-methodologies, which due to depleted and decorous endeavor in explaining Islamic financial market theoretically. This is the demand of time that particular studies should be conduct to magnify the devours in developing theoretical framework for Islamic Financial Market.

Keywords: Islam, financial market, history, research, product development

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Authors: Claudia Troccoli

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Childbearing constitutes one of the key factors affecting labour market differences between men and women, accounting for almost a quarter of the gender wage gap. Family leave policies, such as maternity, paternity, and parental leave, represent potential key policy tools to address these inequalities, as they can promote mothers' job continuity and career progression. This paper analyses four major reforms implemented in Finland between the 1960s and the early 1980s. It studies the effects of these maternity and parental leave extensions on mothers' short- and long-run labour market outcomes. Eligibility to longer leave was determined on the basis of the child's date of birth. Therefore, estimation of the causal effects of the reforms is possible by exploiting random variation in children's birthdates and comparing the outcomes of mothers giving birth just before and just after the reform cutoff date. Overall, the three maternity leave reforms did not significantly improve mothers' earnings or employment rates. On the contrary, the estimates, although imprecise, seem to indicate negative effects on women's labour market outcomes. The extension of parental leave is, on the other hand, the only reform that improved mothers' short- and long-term labour market outcomes, both in terms of earnings and employment rate. At the same time, fathers appeared to be negatively affected by the reform. These results provide suggestive evidence that shareable parental leave might have more beneficial effects on mothers' job continuity, as it weakens the connotation of childcare as a task reserved for mothers.

Keywords: family policies, Finland, maternal labour market outcomes, maternity leave

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, value at risk

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Authors: Katawut Kaewbanjong

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We analyzed a volume of data and found significant user satisfaction in software project factors. A statistical significance analysis (logistic regression) and collinearity analysis determined the significance factors from a group of 71 pre-defined factors from 191 software projects in ISBSG Release 12. The eight prediction models used for testing the prediction potential of these factors were Neural network, k-NN, Naïve Bayes, Random forest, Decision tree, Gradient boosted tree, linear regression and logistic regression prediction model. Fifteen pre-defined factors were truly significant in predicting user satisfaction, and they provided 82.71% prediction accuracy when used with a neural network prediction model. These factors were client-server, personnel changes, total defects delivered, project inactive time, industry sector, application type, development type, how methodology was acquired, development techniques, decision making process, intended market, size estimate approach, size estimate method, cost recording method, and effort estimate method. These findings may benefit software development managers considerably.

Keywords: prediction model, statistical analysis, software project, user satisfaction factor

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Authors: Muhammad Ilham Agus Salim, Muhammad Ikbal

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The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was set up in 2003 with the objectives of creating a single market and production base, enhancing equitable economic development as well as facilitating the integration into the global economy. The AEC involves liberalization and facilitation of trade in goods, skilled labour, services, and investment, as well as protection and promotion of investment. The thesis outlines the AEC Blueprint actions in scope of globalization of investment and capital market. Free flows of investment and freer flows of capital market urge countries in South East Asia to coordinate and to collaborate in securing the interest of public, and this leads to the importance of financial services authorities in ASEAN to prepare the mechanism of guarding the flows of investment. There is no exception, especially for Indonesian Financial Services Authority (OJK) as one of the authorized body in capital market supervision, to enforce its authorities as supervisory body.

Keywords: AEC blueprint, OJK, capital market, integration

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Authors: Damien Kunjal, Faeezah Peerbhai

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Despite the increasing popularity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), ETF investment choices may not always be rational. Excess trading volume, misevaluations of securities, and excess return volatility present in financial markets can be attributed to the influence of the overconfidence bias. Whilst previous research has explored the overconfidence bias in stock markets; this study focuses on trading in ETF markets. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the presence of investor overconfidence in the South African ETF market. Using vector autoregressive models, the lead-lag relationship between market turnover and the market return is examined for the market of South African ETFs tracking domestic benchmarks and for the market of South African ETFs tracking international benchmarks over the period November 2000 till August 2019. Consistent with the overconfidence hypothesis, a positive relationship between current market turnover and lagged market return is found for both markets, even after controlling for market volatility and cross-sectional dispersion. This relationship holds for both market and individual ETF turnover suggesting that investors are overconfident when trading in South African ETFs tracking domestic benchmarks and South African ETFs tracking international benchmarks since trading activity depends on past market returns. Additionally, using the global recession as a structural break, this study finds that investor overconfidence is more pronounced after the global recession suggesting that investors perceive ETFs as risk-reducing assets due to their diversification benefits. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the overconfidence bias has a significant influence on ETF investment choices, therefore, suggesting that the South African ETF market is inefficient since investors’ decisions are based on their biases. As a result, the effect of investor overconfidence can account for the difference between the fair value of ETFs and its current market price. This finding has implications for policymakers whose responsibility is to promote the efficiency of the South African ETF market as well as ETF investors and traders who trade in the South African ETF market.

Keywords: exchange-traded fund, market return, market turnover, overconfidence, trading activity

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Authors: Edwin Njoroge Kimani, Alan M. Munyao

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Despite Kenya’s status as a regional economic powerhouse, it struggles with economic shocks that expose the consumers. This, however, seems not to affect major cooperates such as those in the telecommunication and energy sectors. Through their operations, they have not only been able to fluctuate prices at will but also they have been accused of curtailing their rivals from penetrating the market. This study, through literature review of the legal and institutional framework, reports and publications interrogates the law and uncovers the following; i) failings of the legal framework to define market dominance and abuse of such positions, ii) the participation of the state, iii) the inertia of the government to prosecute corporations that abuse their market dominance, iv) the role of the state as a market player and as a regulator through the Competition Authority of Kenya. This study concludes that the market distortion is as a result of weak legal and institutional framework as well as conflict of interest by the government. Not much has been researched in the field of competition law the greater East Africa. This research is intended to form part of the growing research in the field and inform legal reform.

Keywords: competition law, economic power, dominance, Kenya

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Authors: Hochan Seok, Woosik Jang, Seung-Heon Han

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The stagnant global construction market has intensified competition since 2008 among firms that aim to win overseas contracts. Against this backdrop, subcontractor selection is identified as one of the most critical success factors in overseas construction project. However, it is difficult to select qualified subcontractors due to the lack of evaluation standards and reliability. This study aims to identify the problems associated with existing subcontractor evaluations using a correlations analysis and a multiple regression analysis with pre-qualification and performance evaluation of 121 firms in six countries.

Keywords: subcontractor evaluation system, pre-qualification, performance evaluation, correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, sharpe ratio

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: C. Asarkaya, S. Z. Siretioglu Girgin

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Turkish migrants constitute the largest group among people with migration background living in Germany. Turkish women’s labor market participation is of significant importance for their social and economic integration to the German society. This paper thus aims to investigate their labor market positions. Turkish migrant women participate less in the labor market compared to men, and are responsible for most of the housework, child care, and elderly care. This is due to their traditional roles in the family, educational level, insufficient knowledge of German language, and insufficient professional experience. We strongly recommend that wide-reaching integration policies for women are formulated, so as to encourage participation of not only migrant women but also their husbands, fathers and/or brothers, and natives.

Keywords: empowerment, Germany, labor market, migration, Turkish, women

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Authors: Peng Lu, Liu Ting

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Because of the difficulty of financing from the external capital market, the reorganization and merger of private enterprises have formed a family group, seeking the help of the internal capital market to alleviate the capital demand. However, the inefficiency of the internal capital market can damage the effect it should have played, and even hinder the development of enterprises. This paper takes the "Tomorrow Group" as the research object to carry on the case analysis. After using the improved cash flow sensitivity coefficient to measure the efficiency of the internal capital market of Tomorrow Group, the inefficiency phenomenon is found. Then the analysis reveals that the reasons for its inefficiency include that the pyramidal equity structure is conducive to control, the separation of cash flow rights and control rights, the concentration of equity leads to poor balance, the abandonment of real industries and information asymmetry.

Keywords: tomorrow group, internal capital market, related-party transactions, Baotou tomorrow technology Co., LTD

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