Search results for: marginal distribution
5132 Development of Value Based Planning Methodology Incorporating Risk Assessment for Power Distribution Network
Authors: Asnawi Mohd Busrah, Au Mau Teng, Tan Chin Hooi, Lau Chee Chong
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This paper describes value based planning (VBP) methodology incorporating risk assessment as an enhanced and more practical approach to evaluate distribution network projects in Peninsular Malaysia. Assessment indicators associated with economics, performance and risks are formulated to evaluate distribution projects to quantify their benefits against investment. The developed methodology is implemented in a web-based software customized to capture investment and network data, compute assessment indicators and rank the proposed projects according to their benefits. Value based planning approach addresses economic factors in the power distribution planning assessment, so as to minimize cost solution to the power utility while at the same time provide maximum benefits to customers.Keywords: value based planning, distribution network, value of loss load (VoLL), energy not served (ENS)
Procedia PDF Downloads 4755131 Comparison between Continuous Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization for Distribution Network Reconfiguration
Authors: Linh Nguyen Tung, Anh Truong Viet, Nghien Nguyen Ba, Chuong Trinh Trong
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This paper proposes a reconfiguration methodology based on a continuous genetic algorithm (CGA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) for minimizing active power loss and minimizing voltage deviation. Both algorithms are adapted using graph theory to generate feasible individuals, and the modified crossover is used for continuous variable of CGA. To demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of the proposed methods, a comparative analysis of CGA with PSO for network reconfiguration, on 33-node and 119-bus radial distribution system is presented. The simulation results have shown that both CGA and PSO can be used in the distribution network reconfiguration and CGA outperformed PSO with significant success rate in finding optimal distribution network configuration.Keywords: distribution network reconfiguration, particle swarm optimization, continuous genetic algorithm, power loss reduction, voltage deviation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1815130 Designing an Intelligent Voltage Instability System in Power Distribution Systems in the Philippines Using IEEE 14 Bus Test System
Authors: Pocholo Rodriguez, Anne Bernadine Ocampo, Ian Benedict Chan, Janric Micah Gray
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The state of an electric power system may be classified as either stable or unstable. The borderline of stability is at any condition for which a slight change in an unfavourable direction of any pertinent quantity will cause instability. Voltage instability in power distribution systems could lead to voltage collapse and thus power blackouts. The researchers will present an intelligent system using back propagation algorithm that can detect voltage instability and output voltage of a power distribution and classify it as stable or unstable. The researchers’ work is the use of parameters involved in voltage instability as input parameters to the neural network for training and testing purposes that can provide faster detection and monitoring of the power distribution system.Keywords: back-propagation algorithm, load instability, neural network, power distribution system
Procedia PDF Downloads 4295129 Governance Token Distributions of Layer-One.X
Authors: P. Wongthongtham, K. Coutinho, A. MacCarthy
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Layer-One.X (L1X) blockchain provides the infrastructure layer, and decentralised applications can be created on the L1X infrastructure. L1X tokenomics are important and require a proportional balance between token distribution, nurturing user activity and engagement, and financial incentives. In this paper, we present research in progress on L1X tokenomics describing key concepts and implementations, including token velocity and value, incentive scheme, and broad distribution. Particularly the economic design of the native token of the L1X blockchain, called HeartBit (HB), is presented.Keywords: tokenisation, layer one blockchain, interoperability, token distribution, L1X blockchain
Procedia PDF Downloads 1085128 Method for Assessing Potential in Distribution Logistics
Authors: B. Groß, P. Fronia, P. Nyhuis
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In addition to the production, which is already frequently optimized, improving the distribution logistics also opens up tremendous potential for increasing an enterprise’s competitiveness. Here too though, numerous interactions need to be taken into account, enterprises thus need to be able to identify and weigh between different potentials for economically efficient optimizations. In order to be able to assess potentials, enterprises require a suitable method. This paper first briefly presents the need for this research before introducing the procedure that will be used to develop an appropriate method that not only considers interactions but is also quickly and easily implemented.Keywords: distribution logistics, evaluation of potential, methods, model
Procedia PDF Downloads 4925127 Interval Estimation for Rainfall Mean in Northeastern Thailand
Authors: Nitaya Buntao
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This paper considers the problems of interval estimation for rainfall mean of the lognormal distribution and the delta-lognormal distribution in Northeastern Thailand. We present here the modified generalized pivotal approach (MGPA) compared to the modified method of variance estimates recovery (MMOVER). The performance of each method is examined in term of coverage probabilities and average lengths by Monte Carlo simulation. An extensive simulation study indicates that the MMOVER performs better than the MGPA approach in terms of the coverage probability; it results in highly accurate coverage probability.Keywords: rainfall mean, interval estimation, lognormal distribution, delta-lognormal distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 4515126 Frequency- and Content-Based Tag Cloud Font Distribution Algorithm
Authors: Ágnes Bogárdi-Mészöly, Takeshi Hashimoto, Shohei Yokoyama, Hiroshi Ishikawa
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The spread of Web 2.0 has caused user-generated content explosion. Users can tag resources to describe and organize them. Tag clouds provide rough impression of relative importance of each tag within overall cloud in order to facilitate browsing among numerous tags and resources. The goal of our paper is to enrich visualization of tag clouds. A font distribution algorithm has been proposed to calculate a novel metric based on frequency and content, and to classify among classes from this metric based on power law distribution and percentages. The suggested algorithm has been validated and verified on the tag cloud of a real-world thesis portal.Keywords: tag cloud, font distribution algorithm, frequency-based, content-based, power law
Procedia PDF Downloads 5005125 Statistical Characteristics of Distribution of Radiation-Induced Defects under Random Generation
Authors: P. Selyshchev
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We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.Keywords: irradiation, primary defects, interaction, fluctuations
Procedia PDF Downloads 3355124 Optimal Capacitor Placement in Distribution Systems
Authors: Sana Ansari, Sirus Mohammadi
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In distribution systems, shunt capacitors are used to reduce power losses, to improve voltage profile, and to increase the maximum flow through cables and transformers. This paper presents a new method to determine the optimal locations and economical sizing of fixed and/or switched shunt capacitors with a view to power losses reduction and voltage stability enhancement. General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) has been used to solve the maximization modules using the MINOS optimization software with Linear Programming (LP). The proposed method is tested on 33 node distribution system and the results show that the algorithm suitable for practical implementation on real systems with any size.Keywords: power losses, voltage stability, radial distribution systems, capacitor
Procedia PDF Downloads 6415123 Intelligent Minimal Allocation of Capacitors in Distribution Networks Using Genetic Algorithm
Authors: S. Neelima, P. S. Subramanyam
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A distribution system is an interface between the bulk power system and the consumers. Among these systems, radial distributions system is popular because of low cost and simple design. In distribution systems, the voltages at buses reduces when moved away from the substation, also the losses are high. The reason for a decrease in voltage and high losses is the insufficient amount of reactive power, which can be provided by the shunt capacitors. But the placement of the capacitor with an appropriate size is always a challenge. Thus, the optimal capacitor placement problem is to determine the location and size of capacitors to be placed in distribution networks in an efficient way to reduce the power losses and improve the voltage profile of the system. For this purpose, in this paper, two stage methodologies are used. In the first stage, the load flow of pre-compensated distribution system is carried out using ‘dimension reducing distribution load flow algorithm (DRDLFA)’. On the basis of this load flow the potential locations of compensation are computed. In the second stage, Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique is used to determine the optimal location and size of the capacitors such that the cost of the energy loss and capacitor cost to be a minimum. The above method is tested on IEEE 9 and 34 bus system and compared with other methods in the literature.Keywords: dimension reducing distribution load flow algorithm, DRDLFA, genetic algorithm, electrical distribution network, optimal capacitors placement, voltage profile improvement, loss reduction
Procedia PDF Downloads 3855122 Building Energy Modeling for Networks of Data Centers
Authors: Eric Kumar, Erica Cochran, Zhiang Zhang, Wei Liang, Ronak Mody
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The objective of this article was to create a modelling framework that exposes the marginal costs of shifting workloads across geographically distributed data-centers. Geographical distribution of internet services helps to optimize their performance for localized end users with lowered communications times and increased availability. However, due to the geographical and temporal effects, the physical embodiments of a service's data center infrastructure can vary greatly. In this work, we first identify that the sources of variances in the physical infrastructure primarily stem from local weather conditions, specific user traffic profiles, energy sources, and the types of IT hardware available at the time of deployment. Second, we create a traffic simulator that indicates the IT load at each data-center in the set as an approximator for user traffic profiles. Third, we implement a framework that quantifies the global level energy demands using building energy models and the traffic profiles. The results of the model provide a time series of energy demands that can be used for further life cycle analysis of internet services.Keywords: data-centers, energy, life cycle, network simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1445121 The Effect of Soil Surface Slope on Splash Distribution under Water Drop Impact
Authors: H. Aissa, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef
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The effects of down slope steepness on soil splash distribution under a water drop impact have been investigated in this study. The equipment used are the burette to simulate a water drop, a splash cup filled with sandy soil which forms the source area and a splash board to collect the ejected particles. The results found in this study have shown that the apparent mass increased with increasing downslope angle following a linear regression equation with high coefficient of determination. In the same way, the radial soil splash distribution over the distance has been analyzed statistically, and an exponential function was the best fit of the relationship for the different slope angles. The curves and the regressions equations validate the well known FSDF and extend the theory of Van Dijk.Keywords: splash distribution, water drop, slope steepness, soil detachment
Procedia PDF Downloads 3305120 Contribution of Intermediate Diaphragms on LDFs of Straight and Skew Concrete Multicell Box-Girder Bridges
Authors: Iman Mohseni
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Current studies indicate that neglecting the effect of intermediate diaphragms might lead to highly conservative values for bending moment distribution factors and result in non-economic designs for skew bridges. This paper reports on a parametric study performed on 160 prototypes of straight and skew concrete multicell box-girder bridges. The obtained results were used to develop practical expressions to account for the diaphragm effects on American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials formulas for live load distribution factors. It was observed that decks with internal transverse diaphragms perpendicular to the longitudinal webs are the best arrangement for load distribution in skew bridges.Keywords: box bridges, truck, distribution factor, diaphragm
Procedia PDF Downloads 3705119 Parameter Estimation of Gumbel Distribution with Maximum-Likelihood Based on Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno Quasi-Newton
Authors: Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Hendrika Handayani
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Extreme data on an observation can occur due to unusual circumstances in the observation. The data can provide important information that can’t be provided by other data so that its existence needs to be further investigated. The method for obtaining extreme data is one of them using maxima block method. The distribution of extreme data sets taken with the maxima block method is called the distribution of extreme values. Distribution of extreme values is Gumbel distribution with two parameters. The parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood method (ML) is difficult to determine its exact value so that it is necessary to solve the approach. The purpose of this study was to determine the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with quasi-Newton BFGS method. The quasi-Newton BFGS method is a numerical method used for nonlinear function optimization without constraint so that the method can be used for parameter estimation from Gumbel distribution whose distribution function is in the form of exponential doubel function. The quasi-New BFGS method is a development of the Newton method. The Newton method uses the second derivative to calculate the parameter value changes on each iteration. Newton's method is then modified with the addition of a step length to provide a guarantee of convergence when the second derivative requires complex calculations. In the quasi-Newton BFGS method, Newton's method is modified by updating both derivatives on each iteration. The parameter estimation of the Gumbel distribution by a numerical approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS method is done by calculating the parameter values that make the distribution function maximum. In this method, we need gradient vector and hessian matrix. This research is a theory research and application by studying several journals and textbooks. The results of this study obtained the quasi-Newton BFGS algorithm and estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters. The estimation method is then applied to daily rainfall data in Purworejo District to estimate the distribution parameters. This indicates that the high rainfall that occurred in Purworejo District decreased its intensity and the range of rainfall that occurred decreased.Keywords: parameter estimation, Gumbel distribution, maximum likelihood, broyden fletcher goldfarb shanno (BFGS)quasi newton
Procedia PDF Downloads 3185118 Special Case of Trip Distribution Model and Its Use for Estimation of Detailed Transport Demand in the Czech Republic
Authors: Jiri Dufek
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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities
Procedia PDF Downloads 1215117 Protection Plan of Medium Voltage Distribution Network in Tunisia
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The distribution networks are often exposed to harmful incidents which can halt the electricity supply of the customer. In this context, we studied a real case of a critical zone of the Tunisian network which is currently characterized by the dysfunction of its plan of protection. In this paper, we were interested in the harmonization of the protection plan settings in order to ensure a perfect selectivity and a better continuity of service on the whole of the network.Keywords: distribution network Gabes-Tunisia, continuity of service, protection plan settings, selectivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 5065116 Profit Share in Income: An Analysis of Its Influence on Macroeconomic Performance
Authors: Alain Villemeur
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The relationships between the profit share in income on the one hand and the growth rates of output and employment on the other hand have been studied for 17 advanced economies since 1961. The vast majority (98%) of annual values for the profit share fall between 20% and 40%, with an average value of 33.9%. For the 17 advanced economies, Gross Domestic Product and productivity growth rates tend to fall as the profit share in income rises. For the employment growth rates, the relationships are complex; nevertheless, over long periods (1961-2000), it appears that the more job-creating economies are Australia, Canada, and the United States; they have experienced a profit share close to 1/3. This raises a number of questions, not least the value of 1/3 for the profit share and its role in macroeconomic fundamentals. To explain these facts, an endogenous growth model is developed. This growth and distribution model reconciles the great ideas of Kaldor (economic growth as a chain reaction), of Keynes (effective demand and marginal efficiency of capital) and of Ricardo (importance of the wage-profit distribution) in an economy facing creative destruction. A production function is obtained, depending mainly on the growth of employment, the rate of net investment and the profit share in income. In theory, we show the existence of incentives: an incentive for job creation when the profit share is less than 1/3 and another incentive for job destruction in the opposite case. Thus, increasing the profit share can boost the employment growth rate until it reaches the value of 1/3; otherwise lowers the employment growth rate. Three key findings can be drawn from these considerations. The first reveals that the best GDP and productivity growth rates are obtained with a profit share of less than 1/3. The second is that maximum job growth is associated with a 1/3 profit share, given the existence of incentives to create more jobs when the profit share is less than 1/3 or to destroy more jobs otherwise. The third is the decline in performance (GDP growth rate and productivity growth rate) when the profit share increases. In conclusion, increasing the profit share in income weakens GDP growth or productivity growth as a long-term trend, contrary to the trickle-down hypothesis. The employment growth rate is maximum for a profit share in income of 1/3. All these lessons suggest macroeconomic policies considering the profit share in income.Keywords: advanced countries, GDP growth, employment growth, profit share, economic policies
Procedia PDF Downloads 585115 Study of Seismic Damage Reinforced Concrete Frames in Variable Height with Logistic Statistic Function Distribution
Authors: P. Zarfam, M. Mansouri Baghbaderani
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In seismic design, the proper reaction to the earthquake and the correct and accurate prediction of its subsequent effects on the structure are critical. Choose a proper probability distribution, which gives a more realistic probability of the structure's damage rate, is essential in damage discussions. With the development of design based on performance, analytical method of modal push over as an inexpensive, efficacious, and quick one in the estimation of the structures' seismic response is broadly used in engineering contexts. In this research three concrete frames of 3, 6, and 13 stories are analyzed in non-linear modal push over by 30 different earthquake records by OpenSEES software, then the detriment indexes of roof's displacement and relative displacement ratio of the stories are calculated by two parameters: peak ground acceleration and spectra acceleration. These indexes are used to establish the value of damage relations with log-normal distribution and logistics distribution. Finally the value of these relations is compared and the effect of height on the mentioned damage relations is studied, too.Keywords: modal pushover analysis, concrete structure, seismic damage, log-normal distribution, logistic distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 2425114 Risk Screening in Digital Insurance Distribution: Evidence and Explanations
Authors: Finbarr Murphy, Wei Xu, Xian Xu
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The embedding of digital technologies in the global economy has attracted increasing attention from economists. With a large and detailed dataset, this study examines the specific case where consumers have a choice between offline and digital channels in the context of insurance purchases. We find that digital channels screen consumers with lower unobserved risk. For the term life, endowment, and disease insurance products, the average risk of the policies purchased through digital channels was 75%, 21%, and 31%, respectively, lower than those purchased offline. As a consequence, the lower unobserved risk leads to weaker information asymmetry and higher profitability of digital channels. We highlight three mechanisms of the risk screening effect: heterogeneous marginal influence of channel features on insurance demand, the channel features directly related to risk control, and the link between the digital divide and risk. We also find that the risk screening effect mainly comes from the extensive margin, i.e., from new consumers. This paper contributes to three connected areas in the insurance context: the heterogeneous economic impacts of digital technology adoption, insurer-side risk selection, and insurance marketing.Keywords: digital economy, information asymmetry, insurance, mobile application, risk screening
Procedia PDF Downloads 685113 Moment Estimators of the Parameters of Zero-One Inflated Negative Binomial Distribution
Authors: Rafid Saeed Abdulrazak Alshkaki
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In this paper, zero-one inflated negative binomial distribution is considered, along with some of its structural properties, then its parameters were estimated using the method of moments. It is found that the method of moments to estimate the parameters of the zero-one inflated negative binomial models is not a proper method and may give incorrect conclusions.Keywords: zero one inflated models, negative binomial distribution, moments estimator, non negative integer sampling
Procedia PDF Downloads 2855112 SPICE Modeling for Evaluation of Distribution System Reliability Indices
Authors: G. N. Srinivas, K. Raju
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This paper presents Markov processes for determining the reliability indices of distribution system. The continuous Markov modeling is applied to a complex radial distribution system and electrical equivalent circuits are developed for the modeling. In general PSPICE is being used for electrical and electronic circuits and various applications of power system like fault analysis, transient analysis etc. In this paper, the SPICE modeling equivalent circuits which are developed are applied in a novel way to Distribution System reliability analysis. These circuits are simulated using PSPICE software to obtain the state probabilities, the basic and performance indices. Thus the basic indices and the performance indices obtained by this method are compared with those obtained by FMEA technique. The application of the concepts presented in this paper are illustrated and analyzed for IEEE-Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS).Keywords: distribution system, Markov Model, reliability indices, spice simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 5315111 Temperature Distribution in Friction Stir Welding Using Finite Element Method
Authors: Armansyah, I. P. Almanar, M. Saiful Bahari Shaari, M. Shamil Jaffarullah, Nur’amirah Busu, M. Arif Fadzleen Zainal Abidin, M. Amlie A. Kasim
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Temperature distribution in Friction Stir Welding (FSW) of 6061-T6 Aluminum Alloy is modeled using the Finite Element Method (FEM). In order to obtain temperature distribution in the welded aluminum plates during welding operation, transient thermal finite element analyses are performed. Heat input from tool shoulder and tool pin are considered in the model. A moving heat source with a heat distribution simulating the heat generated by frictions between tool shoulder and workpiece is used in the analysis. Three-dimensional model for simulated process is carried out by using Altair HyperWork, a commercially available software. Transient thermal finite element analyses are performed in order to obtain the temperature distribution in the welded Aluminum plates during welding operation. The developed model was then used to show the effect of various input parameters such as total rate of welding speed and rotational speed on temperature distribution in the workpiece.Keywords: frictions stir welding, temperature distribution, finite element method, altair hyperwork
Procedia PDF Downloads 5365110 Statistical Optimization of Distribution Coefficient for Reactive Extraction of Lactic Acid Using Tri-n-octyl Amine in Oleyl Alcohol and n-Hexane
Authors: Avinash Thakur, Parmjit S. Panesar, Manohar Singh
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The distribution coefficient, KD for the reactive extraction of lactic acid from aqueous solutions of lactic acid using 10-30% (v/v) tri-n-octyl amine (extractant) dissolved in n-hexane (inert diluent) and 20% (v/v) oleyl alcohol (modifier) was optimized by using response surface methodology (RSM). A three level Box-Behnken design was employed for experimental design, analysis of the results and to depict the combined interactive effect of seven independent variables, viz lactic acid concentration (cl), pH, TOA concentration in organic phase (ψ), treat ratio (φ), temperature (T), agitation speed (ω) and batch agitation time (τ) on distribution coefficient of lactic acid. The regression analysis recommended that the quadratic model is significant (R2 and adjusted R2 are 98.72 % and 98.69 % respectively) for analysis. A numerical optimization had resulted in maximum lactic acid distribution coefficient (KD) of 3.16 at the optimized values for test variables, cl, pH, ψ, φ, T, ω and τ as 0.15 [M], 3.0, 22.75% (v/v), 1.0 (v/v), 26°C, 145 rpm and 23 min respectively. A good agreement between the predicted and experimentally obtained values for distribution coefficient using the optimized conditions was exhibited.Keywords: Distribution coefficient, tri-n-octylamine, lactic acid, response surface methodology
Procedia PDF Downloads 4505109 Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Public Girls’ and Boys’ Secondary Schools in Riyadh
Authors: Nasser Marshad Alzeer
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This study examines the spatial distribution of secondary schools in Riyadh. It considers both public girls and boys sector provision and assesses the efficiency of the spatial distribution of secondary schools. Since the establishment of the Ministry of Education (MOE) in 1953 and General Presidency for Female Education, (GPFE) in 1960, there has been a great expansion of education services in Saudi Arabia, particularly during the 1980s. However, recent years have seen much slower rates of increase in the public education sector but the population continues to grow rapidly. This study investigates the spatial distribution of schools through the use of questionnaire surveys and applied GIS. Overall, the results indicate a shortage of public secondary schools, especially in the north of the city. It is clear that there is overcrowding in the majority of secondary schools. The establishment of new schools has been suggested to solve the problem of overcrowding. A number of socio-economic and demographic factors are associated with differences in the utilization of the public secondary schools. A GIS was applied in this study in order to assess the spatial distribution of secondary schools including the modification of existing catchment area boundaries and locating new schools. This modification could also reduce the pupil pressure on certain schools and further benefits could probably be gained.Keywords: analysis, distribution, Saudi, GIS, schools
Procedia PDF Downloads 5475108 Global Historical Distribution Range of Brown Bear (Ursus Arctos)
Authors: Tariq Mahmood, Faiza Lehrasab, Faraz Akrim, Muhammad Sajid nadeem, Muhammad Mushtaq, Unza waqar, Ayesha Sheraz, Shaista Andleeb
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Brown bear (Ursus arctos), a member of the family Ursidae, is distributed in a wide range of habitats in North America, Europe and Asia. Suspectedly, the global distribution range of brown bears is decreasing at the moment due to various factors. The carnivore species is categorized as ‘Least Concern’ globally by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, there are some fragmented, small populations that are on the verge of extinction, as is in Pakistan, where the species is listed as ‘Critically Endangered’, with a declining population trend. Importantly, the global historical distribution range of brown bears is undocumented. Therefore, in the current study, we reconstructed and estimated the historical distribution range of brown bears using QGIS software and also analyzed the network of protected areas in the past and current ranges of the species. Results showed that brown bear was more widely distributed in historic times, encompassing 52.6 million km² area as compared to their current distribution of 38.8 million km², resulting in a total range contraction of up to approximately 28 %. In the past, a total of N = 62,234 protected Areas, covering approximately 3.89 million km² were present in the distribution range of the species, while now a total of N= 33,313 Protected Areas, covering approximately 2.75 million km² area, are present in the current distribution range of the brown bear. The brown bear distribution range in the protected areas has also contracted by 1.15 million km² and the total percentage reduction of PAs is 29%.Keywords: brown bear, historic distribution, range contraction, protected areas
Procedia PDF Downloads 425107 Determination of the Best Fit Probability Distribution for Annual Rainfall in Karkheh River at Iran
Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi
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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River
Procedia PDF Downloads 1875106 Residual Lifetime Estimation for Weibull Distribution by Fusing Expert Judgements and Censored Data
Authors: Xiang Jia, Zhijun Cheng
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The residual lifetime of a product is the operation time between the current time and the time point when the failure happens. The residual lifetime estimation is rather important in reliability analysis. To predict the residual lifetime, it is necessary to assume or verify a particular distribution that the lifetime of the product follows. And the two-parameter Weibull distribution is frequently adopted to describe the lifetime in reliability engineering. Due to the time constraint and cost reduction, a life testing experiment is usually terminated before all the units have failed. Then the censored data is usually collected. In addition, other information could also be obtained for reliability analysis. The expert judgements are considered as it is common that the experts could present some useful information concerning the reliability. Therefore, the residual lifetime is estimated for Weibull distribution by fusing the censored data and expert judgements in this paper. First, the closed-forms concerning the point estimate and confidence interval for the residual lifetime under the Weibull distribution are both presented. Next, the expert judgements are regarded as the prior information and how to determine the prior distribution of Weibull parameters is developed. For completeness, the cases that there is only one, and there are more than two expert judgements are both focused on. Further, the posterior distribution of Weibull parameters is derived. Considering that it is difficult to derive the posterior distribution of residual lifetime, a sample-based method is proposed to generate the posterior samples of Weibull parameters based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. And these samples are used to obtain the Bayes estimation and credible interval for the residual lifetime. Finally, an illustrative example is discussed to show the application. It demonstrates that the proposed method is rather simple, satisfactory, and robust.Keywords: expert judgements, information fusion, residual lifetime, Weibull distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 1375105 Wire Localization Procedures in Non-Palpable Breast Cancers: An Audit Report and Review of Literature
Authors: Waqas Ahmad, Eisha Tahir, Shahper Aqeel, Imran Khalid Niazi, Amjad Iqbal
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Background: Breast conservation surgery applies a number of techniques for accurate localization of lesions. Wire localization remains the method of choice in non-palpable breast cancers post-neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Objective: The aim of our study was to determine the accuracy of wire localization procedures in our department and compare it with internationally set protocols as per the Royal College of Radiologists. Post wire mammography, as well as the margin status of the postoperative specimen, assessed the accuracy of the procedure. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the data of 225 patients who presented to our department from May 2014 to June 2015 post neoadjuvant chemotherapy with non-palpable cancers. These patients are candidates for wire localized lumpectomies either under ultrasound or stereotactic guidance. Metallic marker was placed in all the patients at the time of biopsy. Post wire mammogram was performed in all the patients and the distance of the wire tip from the marker was calculated. The presence or absence of the metallic clip in the postoperative specimen, as well as the marginal status of the postoperative specimen, was noted. Results: 157 sonographic and 68 stereotactic wire localization procedures were performed. 95% of the wire tips were within 1 cm of the metallic marker. Marginal status was negative in 94% of the patients in histopathological specimen. Conclusion: Our audit report declares more than 95% accuracy of image guided wire localization in successful excision of non-palpable breast lesions.Keywords: breast, cancer, non-palpable, wire localization
Procedia PDF Downloads 3015104 Impact of Series Reactive Compensation on Increasing a Distribution Network Distributed Generation Hosting Capacity
Authors: Moataz Ammar, Ahdab Elmorshedy
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The distributed generation hosting capacity of a distribution network is typically limited at a given connection point by the upper voltage limit that can be violated due to the injection of active power into the distribution network. The upper voltage limit violation concern becomes more important as the network equivalent resistance increases with respect to its equivalent reactance. This paper investigates the impact of modifying the distribution network equivalent reactance at the point of connection such that the upper voltage limit is violated at a higher distributed generation penetration, than it would without the addition of series reactive compensation. The results show that series reactive compensation proves efficient in certain situations (based on the ratio of equivalent network reactance to equivalent network resistance at the point of connection). As opposed to the conventional case of capacitive compensation of a distribution network to reduce voltage drop, inductive compensation is seen to be more appropriate for alleviation of distributed-generation-induced voltage rise.Keywords: distributed generation, distribution networks, series compensation, voltage rise
Procedia PDF Downloads 3905103 Potential Distribution and Electric Field Analysis around a Polluted Outdoor Polymeric Insulator with Broken Sheds
Authors: Adel Kara, Abdelhafid Bayadi, Hocine Terrab
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This paper presents a study of electric field distribution along of 72 kV polymeric outdoor insulators with broken sheds. Different cases of damaged insulators are modeled and both of clean and polluted cases. By 3D finite element analysis using the software package COMSOL Multiphysics 4.3b. The obtained results of potential and the electrical field distribution around insulators by 3D simulation proved that finite element computations is useful tool for studying insulation electrical field distribution.Keywords: electric field distributions, insulator, broken sheds, potential distributions
Procedia PDF Downloads 506