Search results for: Long Short Term Memory

Authors: Mehrnaz Alibeikloo, Hajar Share Isfahani, Hadi Khabbaz

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In recent years, by developing cities and increasing population, reconstructing on closed landfill sites in some regions is unavoidable. Long-term settlement is one of the major concerns associated with reconstruction on landfills after closure. The purpose of this research is evaluating the effect of preloading in various patterns of height and time on long-term settlements of closed landfills. In this regard, five scenarios of surcharge from 1 to 3 m high within 3, 4.5 and 6 months of preloading time have been modeled using PLAXIS 2D software. Moreover, the numerical results have been compared to those obtained from analytical methods, and a good agreement has been achieved. The findings indicate that there is a linear relationship between settlement and surcharge height. Although, long-term settlement decreased by applying a longer and higher preloading, the time of preloading was found to be a more effective factor compared to preloading height.

Keywords: preloading, long-term settlement, landfill, PLAXIS 2D

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Authors: Zhicheng Han

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This study examines the correlation between knowledge of formulaic language, working memory (WM), and phonological short-term memory (PSTM) in Chinese L2 learners of English. This study investigates if WM and PSTM correlate differently to the acquisition of formulaic language, which may be relevant for the discourse around the conceptualization of formulas. Connectionist approaches have lead scholars to argue that formulas are form-meaning connections stored whole, making PSTM significant in the acquisitional process as it pertains to the storage and retrieval of chunk information. Generativist scholars, on the other hand, argued for active participation of interlanguage grammar in the acquisition and use of formulaic language, where formulas are represented in the mind but retain the internal structure built around a lexical core. This would make WM, especially the processing component of WM an important cognitive factor since it plays a role in processing and holding information for further analysis and manipulation. The current study asked L1 Chinese learners of English enrolled in graduate programs in China to complete a preference raking task where they rank their preference for formulas, grammatical non-formulaic expressions, and ungrammatical phrases with and without the lexical core in academic contexts. Participants were asked to rank the options in order of the likeliness of them encountering these phrases in the test sentences within academic contexts. Participants’ syntactic proficiency is controlled with a cloze test and grammar test. Regression analysis found a significant relationship between the processing component of WM and preference of formulaic expressions in the preference ranking task while no significant correlation is found for PSTM or syntactic proficiency. The correlational analysis found that WM, PSTM, and the two proficiency test scores have significant covariates. However, WM and PSTM have different predictor values for participants’ preference for formulaic language. Both storage and processing components of WM are significantly correlated with the preference for formulaic expressions while PSTM is not. These findings are in favor of the role of interlanguage grammar and syntactic knowledge in the acquisition of formulaic expressions. The differing effects of WM and PSTM suggest that selective attention to and processing of the input beyond simple retention play a key role in successfully acquiring formulaic language. Similar correlational patterns were found for preferring the ungrammatical phrase with the lexical core of the formula over the ones without the lexical core, attesting to learners’ awareness of the lexical core around which formulas are constructed. These findings support the view that formulaic phrases retain internal syntactic structures that are recognized and processed by the learners.

Keywords: formulaic language, working memory, phonological short-term memory, academic language

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Authors: Hamza Al-Hazmi, Tabrej Khan

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Obesity is today a global phenomenon that affects all countries, all types of societies regardless of age, sex, and income. The average value of the relative body mass index (BMI) has increased, which indicates an increasing obesity problem in the population. Nowadays obesity is a global problem, and mass production of clothes is standard size. People have a problem to find best-fitted clothes. The goal of the project is to develop an E-Commerce web portal as a new, innovative and customize clothing production system for obese people. This research has a long-term objective and short-term objective. The long-term objectives are (1) utilize online Web portal to improve tailors’ income, and (2) provide a free online platform to the tailors and customers in order to stitch clothes. Then, the short-term objective are (1) identify e-commerce’s requirements, (2) analyze and design the e-commerce application, and (3) build and implement the e-commerce application to Customized Clothes for Overweight people. This application can hopefully improve the tailors’ income and provide an easy way for customers to choose a fabric, apply style and provide measurement. This e-commerce application is not limited to obese or overweight people but also for other people who want to stitch cloth from tailors. MySQL and PHP we are going to use for developing the application.

Keywords: e-commerce, obesity, PHP, customize clothes

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Authors: Yolina A. Petrova, Georgi I. Petkov

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The paper presents a symbolic model for category learning and categorization (called RoleMap). Unlike the other models which implement learning in a separate working mode, role-governed category learning and categorization emerge in RoleMap while it does its usual reasoning. The model is based on several basic mechanisms known as reflecting the sub-processes of analogy-making. It steps on the assumption that in their everyday life people constantly compare what they experience and what they know. Various commonalities between the incoming information (current experience) and the stored one (long-term memory) emerge from those comparisons. Some of those commonalities are considered to be highly important, and they are transformed into concepts for further use. This process denotes the category learning. When there is missing knowledge in the incoming information (i.e. the perceived object is still not recognized), the model makes anticipations about what is missing, based on the similar episodes from its long-term memory. Various such anticipations may emerge for different reasons. However, with time only one of them wins and is transformed into a category member. This process denotes the act of categorization.

Keywords: analogy-making, categorization, category learning, cognitive modeling, role-governed categories

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Authors: Ying Su, Morgan C. Wang

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Long-term time series forecasting is an important research area for automated machine learning (AutoML). Currently, forecasting based on either machine learning or statistical learning is usually built by experts, and it requires significant manual effort, from model construction, feature engineering, and hyper-parameter tuning to the construction of the time series model. Automation is not possible since there are too many human interventions. To overcome these limitations, this article proposed to use recurrent neural networks (RNN) through the memory state of RNN to perform long-term time series prediction. We have shown that this proposed approach is better than the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In addition, we also found it is better than other network systems, including Fully Connected Neural Networks (FNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks (NPCNN).

Keywords: automated machines learning, autoregressive integrated moving average, neural networks, time series analysis

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Egypt using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for co-integration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests some negative impacts of the CO2 emissions and the coal and natural gas use on the GDP. Conversely, a positive long-run causality from the electricity consumption to the GDP is found to be significant in Egypt during the period. In the short-run, some positive unidirectional causalities exist, running from the coal consumption to the GDP, and the CO2 emissions and the natural gas use. Further, the GDP and the electricity use are positively influenced by the consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use, and economic output in both the short term and long term; however, the effects may differ due to the sources of energy, such as in the case of Egypt for the period of 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, Egypt, energy consumption, GDP, time series analysis

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Authors: O. Behar, A. Khellaf, K. Mohammedi, S. Ait Kaci

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Up to now, most validation studies have been based on the MBE and RMSE, and therefore, focused only on long and short terms performance to test and classify solar radiation models. This traditional analysis does not take into account the quality of modeling and linearity. In our analysis we have tested 22 solar radiation models that are capable to provide instantaneous direct and global radiation at any given location Worldwide. We introduce a new indicator, which we named Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI) to examine the linear relationship between the measured and predicted values and the quality of modeling in addition to long and short terms performance. Note that the quality of model has been represented by the T-Statistical test, the model linearity has been given by the correlation coefficient and the long and short term performance have been respectively known by the MBE and RMSE. An important founding of this research is that the use GAI allows avoiding default validation when using traditional methodology that might results in erroneous prediction of solar power conversion systems performances.

Keywords: solar radiation model, parametric model, performance analysis, Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI)

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Authors: Rahimah Akbar, Abdullah Al-Hashemi, Hanan Taqi, Taiba Sadeq

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As technology continues to develop, teaching curriculums in both schools and universities have begun adopting a more computer/digital based approach to the transmission of knowledge and information, as opposed to the more old-fashioned use of textbooks. This gives rise to the question: Are there any differences in learning from a digital source over learning from a printed source, as in from a textbook? More specifically, which medium of information results in better long-term retention? A review of the confounding factors implicated in understanding the relationship between learning from the two different mediums was done. Alongside this, a 4-week cohort study involving 76 1st year English Language female students was performed, whereby the participants were divided into 2 groups. Group A studied material from a paper source (referred to as the Print Medium), and Group B studied material from a digital source (Digital Medium). The dependent variables were grading of memory recall indexed by a 4 point grading system, and total frequency of item repetition. The study was facilitated by advanced computer software called Super Memo. Results showed that, contrary to prevailing evidence, the Digital Medium group showed no statistically significant differences in terms of the shift from Remember (Episodic) to Know (Semantic) when all confounding factors were accounted for. The shift from Random Guess and Familiar to Remember occurred faster in the Digital Medium than it did in the Print Medium.

Keywords: digital medium, print medium, long-term memory recall, episodic memory, semantic memory, super memo, forgetting index, frequency of repetitions, total time spent

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Authors: Mrinalini Ranjan, Sudheesh Chethil

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Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder characterised by the recurrence of seizures. Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals are complex biomedical signals which exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior. We use two methods 1) Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and 2) Recurrence Plots (RP) to capture this complex behavior of EEG signals. DFA considers fluctuation from local linear trends. Scale invariance of these signals is well captured in the multifractal characterisation using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Analysis of long-range correlations is vital for understanding the dynamics of EEG signals. Correlation properties in the EEG signal are quantified by the calculation of a scaling exponent. We report the existence of two scaling behaviours in the epileptic EEG signals which quantify short and long-range correlations. To illustrate this, we perform DFA on extant ictal (seizure) and interictal (seizure free) datasets of different patients in different channels. We compute the short term and long scaling exponents and report a decrease in short range scaling exponent during seizure as compared to pre-seizure and a subsequent increase during post-seizure period, while the long-term scaling exponent shows an increase during seizure activity. Our calculation of long-term scaling exponent yields a value between 0.5 and 1, thus pointing to power law behaviour of long-range temporal correlations (LRTC). We perform this analysis for multiple channels and report similar behaviour. We find an increase in the long-term scaling exponent during seizure in all channels, which we attribute to an increase in persistent LRTC during seizure. The magnitude of the scaling exponent and its distribution in different channels can help in better identification of areas in brain most affected during seizure activity. The nature of epileptic seizures varies from patient-to-patient. To illustrate this, we report an increase in long-term scaling exponent for some patients which is also complemented by the recurrence plots (RP). RP is a graph that shows the time index of recurrence of a dynamical state. We perform Recurrence Quantitative analysis (RQA) and calculate RQA parameters like diagonal length, entropy, recurrence, determinism, etc. for ictal and interictal datasets. We find that the RQA parameters increase during seizure activity, indicating a transition. We observe that RQA parameters are higher during seizure period as compared to post seizure values, whereas for some patients post seizure values exceeded those during seizure. We attribute this to varying nature of seizure in different patients indicating a different route or mechanism during the transition. Our results can help in better understanding of the characterisation of epileptic EEG signals from a nonlinear analysis.

Keywords: detrended fluctuation, epilepsy, long range correlations, recurrence plots

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Authors: Hicham Benamirouche, Oum Elkheir Moussi

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The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics of Algeria’s natural gas exports through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach with break points. The analysis was carried out for the period from 1967 to 2015. Based on imperfect substitution specification, the ARDL approach reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship between Algeria’s Natural gas exports and their determinant factors (Algeria’s gas reserves, Domestic gas consumption, Europe’s GDP per capita, relative prices, the European gas production and the market share of competitors). All the long-run elasticities estimated are statistically significant with a large impact of domestic factors, which constitute the supply constraints. In short term, the elasticities are statistically significant, and almost comparable to those of the long term. Furthermore, the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is less than one year because of the little flexibility of the long term export contracts. Two break points have been estimated when we employ the domestic gas consumption as a break variable; 1984 and 2010, which reflect the arbitration policy between the domestic gas market and gas exports.

Keywords: natural gas exports, elasticity, ARDL bounds testing, break points, Algeria

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Authors: Hosam Alzahrani, Martin Mackey, Emmanuel Stamatakis, Marina B. Pinheiro, Manuela Wicks, Debra Shirley

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Objective: To investigate the effectiveness of incidental (non-structured) physical activity interventions compared with other commonly prescribed interventions for the management of people with low back pain (LBP). Methods: We performed a systematic review with meta-analyses of eligible randomized controlled trials obtained by searching Medline, Scopus, CINAHL, EMBASE, and CENTRAL. This review considered trials investigating the effect of incidental physical activity interventions compared to other interventions in people aged 18 years or over, diagnosed with non-specific LBP. Analyses were conducted separately for short-term (≤3 months), intermediate-term (> 3 and < 12 months), and long-term (≥ 12 months), for each outcome. The analyses were conducted using the weighted mean difference (WMD). The overall quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE system. Meta-analyses were only performed for pain and disability outcomes as there was insufficient data on the other outcomes. Results: For pain, the pooled results did not show any significant effects between the incidental physical activity intervention and other interventions at any time point. For disability, incidental physical activity was not statistically more effective than other interventions at short-term; however, the pooled results favored incidental physical activity at intermediate-term (WMD= -6.05, 95% CI: -10.39 to -1.71, p=0.006) and long-term (WMD= -6.40 95% CI: -11.68 to -1.12, p=0.02) follow-ups among participants with chronic LBP. The overall quality of evidence was rated “moderate quality” based on the GRADE system. Conclusion: The incidental physical activity intervention provided intermediate and long disability relief for people with chronic LBP, although this improvement was small and not likely to be clinically important.

Keywords: physical activity, incidental, low back pain, systematic review, meta-analysis

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Authors: Man Fung Ho, Lap So, Jiaqi Zhang, Yuheng Zhao, Huiyang Lu, Tat Shing Choi, K. Y. Michael Wong

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Nowadays, a tremendous amount of data is available in the transportation system, enabling the development of various machine learning approaches to make short-term latency predictions. A natural question is then the choice of relevant information to enable accurate predictions. Using traffic data collected from the Taiwan Freeway System, we consider the prediction of short-term latency of a freeway segment with a length of 17 km covering 5 measurement points, each collecting vehicle-by-vehicle data through the electronic toll collection system. The processed data include the past latencies of the freeway segment with different time lags, the traffic conditions of the individual segments (the accumulations, the traffic fluxes, the entrance and exit rates), the total accumulations, and the weekday latency profiles obtained by Gaussian process regression of past data. We arrive at several important conclusions about how data should be refined to obtain accurate predictions, which have implications for future system-wide latency predictions. (1) We find that the prediction of median latency is much more accurate and meaningful than the prediction of average latency, as the latter is plagued by outliers. This is verified by machine-learning prediction using XGBoost that yields a 35% improvement in the mean square error of the 5-minute averaged latencies. (2) We find that the median latency of the segment 15 minutes ago is a very good baseline for performance comparison, and we have evidence that further improvement is achieved by machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). (3) By analyzing the feature importance score in XGBoost and calculating the mutual information between the inputs and the latencies to be predicted, we identify a sequence of inputs ranked in importance. It confirms that the past latencies are most informative of the predicted latencies, followed by the total accumulation, whereas inputs such as the entrance and exit rates are uninformative. It also confirms that the inputs are much less informative of the average latencies than the median latencies. (4) For predicting the latencies of segments composed of two or three sub-segments, summing up the predicted latencies of each sub-segment is more accurate than the one-step prediction of the whole segment, especially with the latency prediction of the downstream sub-segments trained to anticipate latencies several minutes ahead. The duration of the anticipation time is an increasing function of the traveling time of the upstream segment. The above findings have important implications to predicting the full set of latencies among the various locations in the freeway system.

Keywords: data refinement, machine learning, mutual information, short-term latency prediction

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Authors: Necati Içer

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Crop-hail insurance plays a vital role in managing risks and reducing the financial consequences of hail damage on crop production. Predicting insurance premium rates with short-term data is a major difficulty in numerous nations because of the unique characteristics of hailstorms. This study aims to suggest a feasible approach for establishing equitable premium rates in crop-hail insurance for nations with short-term insurance data. The primary goal of the rate-making process is to determine premium rates for high and zero loss costs of villages and enhance their credibility. To do this, a technique was created using the author's practical knowledge of crop-hail insurance. With this approach, the rate-making method was developed using a range of temporal and spatial factor combinations with both hypothetical and real data, including extreme cases. This article aims to show how to incorporate the temporal and spatial elements into determining fair premium rates using short-term insurance data. The article ends with a suggestion on the ultimate premium rates for insurance contracts.

Keywords: crop-hail insurance, premium rate, short-term insurance data, spatial and temporal parameters

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Authors: Hong Fan, Lifang Gao, Feng Zhan

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This paper examines the influence of local gambling attitudes on a firm's long-term financial performance. Firms located in gambling-prone regions may be more willing to take risks, thus spending more on innovative projects. However, firms in such regions may also be likely to choose projects impulsively and allocate resources inefficiently. By studying Chinese publicly listed firms from 2010 to 2017, we find that firms in more gambling-prone regions invest more in R&D. Both local gambling attitudes and firms’ R&D spending are positively associated with firms’ long-term financial performance. More importantly, our study reveals that the positive impact of R&D spending on firms’ long-term financial performance is weakened by gambling-friendly attitudes, probably because firms in gambling-prone regions are more likely to overinvest in risky projects. This effect is stronger for larger firms, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), firms with more government subsidies, and firms with weaker internal control.

Keywords: regional gambling attitudes, long-term financial performance, R&D, risk, local bias

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Authors: Yunbin Deng

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Most existing applications of automatic speech recognition relies on cooperative subjects at a short distance to a microphone. Standoff speech recognition using microphone arrays can extend the subject to sensor distance somewhat, but it is still limited to only a few feet. As such, most deployed applications of standoff speech recognitions are limited to indoor use at short range. Moreover, these applications require air passway between the subject and the sensor to achieve reasonable signal to noise ratio. This study reports long range (50 feet) automatic speech recognition experiments using a Laser Doppler Vibrometer (LDV) sensor. This study shows that the LDV sensor modality can extend the speech acquisition standoff distance far beyond microphone arrays to hundreds of feet. In addition, LDV enables 'listening' through the windows for uncooperative subjects. This enables new capabilities in automatic audio and speech intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) for law enforcement, homeland security and counter terrorism applications. The Polytec LDV model OFV-505 is used in this study. To investigate the impact of different vibrating materials, five parallel LDV speech corpora, each consisting of 630 speakers, are collected from the vibrations of a glass window, a metal plate, a plastic box, a wood slate, and a concrete wall. These are the common materials the application could encounter in a daily life. These data were compared with the microphone counterpart to manifest the impact of various materials on the spectrum of the LDV speech signal. State of the art deep neural network modeling approaches is used to conduct continuous speaker independent speech recognition on these LDV speech datasets. Preliminary phoneme recognition results using time-delay neural network, bi-directional long short term memory, and model fusion shows great promise of using LDV for long range speech recognition. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first time an LDV is reported for long distance speech recognition application.

Keywords: covert speech acquisition, distant speech recognition, DSR, laser Doppler vibrometer, LDV, speech intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, ISR

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Authors: Lei Qin

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Culture has long been recognized as a possible reason to influence travelers’ decisions, which explains why travelers in different countries make distinct decisions. Cultural distance is a concept illustrating how much difference there is between travelers’ home culture and that of the destination, but the research in distinguishing short-and-long haul travel destinations is limited. This study explored the research gap by examining the impact of cultural distance on Chinese travelers’ intentions to visit short-haul and long-haul destinations, respectively. Six cultural distance measurements, including five measurements calculated from secondary database (Kogut & Singh, Developed Kogut & Singh, Euclidean distance Index (EDI), world value survey index (WVS), social axioms measurement (SAM)) and perceived cultural distance (PCD) collected from the primary survey. Of the six measurements, culture distance has the opposite impact on Chinese outbound travelers’ intentions in the short-haul and long haul. For short-haul travel, travelers’ intentions for traveling can be positive influenced by cultural distance; a possible reason is that travelers’ novelty-seeking satisfaction is greater than the strangeness obtained from overseas regions. For long-haul travel, travelers’ intentions for traveling can be negative influenced by cultural distance, a possible explanation is that travelers’ uncertainty, risk, and language concerns of farther destinations.

Keywords: cultural distance, intention, outbound travel, short-long haul

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Authors: M. Shokry Rashwan

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This study follows a number of experiments conducted at Red River College (RRC) to investigate the short term properties of tire derived aggregate (TDA) produced from shredding off-the-road (OTR) wasted tires in a proposed new application. The application targets replacing natural material used under concrete slabs and as backfills for residential homes’ basement slabs and walls, respectively, with TDA. The experimental work included determining: compressibility, gradation distribution, unit weight, hydraulic conductivity and lateral pressure. Based on the results of those short term properties; it was decided to move forward to study the long-term performance of this otherwise waste material through on-site demonstration. A full-scale basement replicating a typical Manitoba home was therefore built at RRC where both TDA and Natural Materials (NM) were used side-by-side. A large number of sensing and measuring systems are used to compare between the performances of each material when exposed to the typical ground and weather conditions. Parameters monitored and measured include heat losses, moisture migration, drainage ability, lateral pressure, relative movements of slabs and walls, an integrity of ground water and radon emissions. Up-to-date results have confirmed part of the conclusions reached from the earlier laboratory experiments. However, other results have shown that construction practices; such as placing and compaction, may need some adjustments to achieve more desirable outcomes. This presentation provides a review of both short-term tests as well as up-to-date analysis of the on-site demonstration.

Keywords: tire derived aggregate (TDA), basement construction, TDA material properties, lateral pressure of TDA, hydraulic conductivity of TDA

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Authors: Othman Maklouf, Abdunnaser Tresh

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GPS and inertial navigation system (INS) have complementary qualities that make them ideal use for sensor fusion. The limitations of GPS include occasional high noise content, outages when satellite signals are blocked, interference and low bandwidth. The strengths of GPS include its long-term stability and its capacity to function as a stand-alone navigation system. In contrast, INS is not subject to interference or outages, have high bandwidth and good short-term noise characteristics, but have long-term drift errors and require external information for initialization. A combined system of GPS and INS subsystems can exhibit the robustness, higher bandwidth and better noise characteristics of the inertial system with the long-term stability of GPS. The most common estimation algorithm used in integrated INS/GPS is the Kalman Filter (KF). KF is able to take advantages of these characteristics to provide a common integrated navigation implementation with performance superior to that of either subsystem (GPS or INS). This paper presents a simplified KF algorithm for land vehicle navigation application. In this integration scheme, the GPS derived positions and velocities are used as the update measurements for the INS derived PVA. The KF error state vector in this case includes the navigation parameters as well as the accelerometer and gyroscope error states.

Keywords: GPS, INS, Kalman filter, inertial navigation system

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

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Authors: Mazlynda Md Yusuf, Wafa' Mahadzir, Mohamad Yazis Ali Basah

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Nowadays, financing long-term care for elderly people is a crucial issue, either towards the family members or the care institution. Corresponding with the growing number of ageing population in Malaysia, there’s a need of concern on the uncertaintiness of future family care and the need for long-term care services. Moreover, with the increasing cost of living, children feels the urge of needing to work and receive a fixed monthly income that results to sending their elderly parents to care institutions. Currently, in Malaysia, the rates for private nursing homes can amount up to RM 4,000 per month excluding medical treatments and other recurring expenses. These costs are expected to be paid using their Employees Provident Fund (EPF) savings that they accumulate during their working years, especially for those working under private sectors. Hence, this study identifies the adequacy of EPF in funding the cost of long-term care service during old age. This study used a hypothetical simulation model to simulate different scenarios. The findings of this study could be used for individuals to prepare on the importance of planning for retirement, especially with the increasing cost of long-term care services.

Keywords: long-term care cost, employees provident fund Malaysia, ageing population, Malaysian elderly

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Authors: Tanimola Kazeem Abiodun

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In the paper, attempt was made to investigate the impact of international trade on economic growth at the disaggregate level both from the theoretical and economic angle. The study in its contribution examines this impact at the disaggregated level. To this end, a hypothesis was formulated to investigate the short ?run and long run impact of international trade on growth in the country. In the econometrics investigation that follow, international trade was disaggregated to export and imports and their short run and long run effect on growth was examined. Also, the aggregate international trade was also investigated to see the long run effects of its own growth. The results of the findings indicate that; both export and import impact significantly to growth in the short run. The long-run impact of export on growth was found to be positive, significant and stable both. Engle-Granger co integration test and error correlation mechanism were applied to these long run relationships. For the import, while the short run was found to be positive and significant on its impact on growth, the long run relationship was found to be negative but not significant. Therefore, it is thus recommended among others that the country should engage more on export promotion drives.

Keywords: international trade, disaggregated, import, export, econometrics, trade, economic growth, foreign trade, import, export

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Authors: Saeed Dehnavi, Ismail Asadallahi, Fatemeh Rahmatian, Elahe Rahimian

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Purpose: Due to an increasing prevalence of over eating disorders, this paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of short-term group cognitive-behavioral therapy on reducing binge eating behavior and depression symptoms among females suffered from binge eating disorder (BED) in Qazvin, Iran. Methodology: This is aquasi-experimental study (pre-post testing plan with control group). Using a convenience sampling technique, binge eating scale (BES) and clinical interviews, 30 persons were selected among all clients who had referred to weight loss centers in Qazvin, these persons were randomly placed into two control and experimental groups. The experimental group participated in a seven-session plan on short-term cognitive-behavioral group therapy. Results: The results showed that the short term group cognitive-behavioral therapy results in a significant reduction in binge eating signs and depressive symptoms within the experimental group, compared to the control. Conclusion: Regarding the results, it is known that short-term group cognitive-behavioral therapy is effective in reducing overeating symptoms. Hence, it can be used as an economical and effective treatment method for individuals suffering from BED.

Keywords: cognitive-behavioral group therapy, binge eating disorder, depression

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Authors: Andreas Hirseland, Lukas Kerschbaumer

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In Germany, during the past years there constantly are about one million long term unemployed who did not benefit from the prospering labor market while most short term unemployed did. Instead, they are continuously dependent on welfare and sometimes precarious short-term employment, experiencing work poverty. Long term unemployment thus turns into a main obstacle to regular employment, especially if accompanied by other impediments such as low level education (school/vocational), poor health (especially chronical illness), advanced age (older than fifty), immigrant status, motherhood or engagement in care for other relatives. Almost two thirds of all welfare recipients have multiple impediments which hinder a successful transition from welfare back to sustainable and sufficient employment. Hiring them is often considered as an investment too risky for employers. Therefore formal application schemes based on formal qualification certificates and vocational biographies might reduce employers’ risks but at the same time are not helpful for long-term unemployed and welfare recipients. The panel survey ‘Labor market and social security’ (PASS; ~15,000 respondents in ~10,000 households), carried out by the Institute of Employment Research (the research institute of the German Federal Labor Agency), shows that their chance to get back to work tends to fall to nil. Only 66 cases of such unlikely transitions could be observed. In a sequential explanatory mixed-method study, the very scarce ‘success stories’ of unlikely transitions from long term unemployment to work were explored by qualitative inquiry – in-depth interviews with a focus on biography accompanied by qualitative network techniques in order to get a more detailed insight of relevant actors involved in the processes which promote the transition from being a welfare recipient to work. There is strong evidence that sustainable transitions are influenced by biographical resources like habits of network use, a set of informal skills and particularly a resilient way of dealing with obstacles, combined with contextual factors rather than by job-placement procedures promoted by Job-Centers according to activation rules or by following formal paths of application. On the employer’s side small and medium-sized enterprises are often found to give job opportunities to a wider variety of applicants, often based on a slow but steadily increasing relationship leading to employment. According to these results it is possible to show and discuss some limitations of (German) activation policies targeting welfare dependency and long-term unemployment. Based on these findings, indications for more supportive small scale measures in the field of labor-market policies are suggested to help long-term unemployed with multiple impediments to overcome their situation.

Keywords: against-all-odds, economic sociology, long-term unemployment, mixed-methods

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Authors: Reinhard Haas, Amela Ajanovic

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In recent years especially electricity generation from intermittent sources like wind and solar has increased remarkably. To balance electricity supply over time calls for storages has been launched. Because intermittency also exists over longer periods – months, years, especially the need for long-term electricity storages is discussed. The major conclusions of our analysis are: (i) Despite many calls for a prophylactic construction of new storage capacities with respect to all centralized long-term storage technologies the future perspectives will be much less promising than currently indicated in several papers and discussions; (ii) new long term hydro storages will not become economically attractive in general in the next decades; however, daily storages will remain the cheapest option and the most likely to be competitive; (iii) For PtG-technologies it will also become very hard to compete in the electricity markets despite a high technological learning potential. Yet, for hydrogen and methane there are prospects for use in the transport sector.

Keywords: storages, electricity markets, power-to-gas, hydro pump storages, economics

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Authors: Thang V. Kieu, Long P. Nguyen

Abstract:

Kernelized Correlation Filter (KCF) based trackers have gained a lot of attention recently because of their accuracy and fast calculation speed. However, this algorithm is not robust in cases where the object is lost by a sudden change of direction, being obscured or going out of view. In order to improve KCF performance in long-term tracking, this paper proposes an anomaly detection method for target loss warning by analyzing the response map of each frame, and a classification algorithm for reliable target re-locating mechanism by using Random fern. Being tested with Visual Tracker Benchmark and Visual Object Tracking datasets, the experimental results indicated that the precision and success rate of the proposed algorithm were 2.92 and 2.61 times higher than that of the original KCF algorithm, respectively. Moreover, the proposed tracker handles occlusion better than many state-of-the-art long-term tracking methods while running at 60 frames per second.

Keywords: correlation filter, long-term tracking, random fern, real-time tracking

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah

Abstract:

This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network based approach for short-term load forecasting and exactly for two days ahead. Two seasons have been discussed for Iraqi power system, namely summer and winter; the hourly load demand is the most important input variables for ANN based load forecasting. The recorded daily load profile with a lead time of 1-48 hours for July and December of the year 2012 was obtained from the operation and control center that belongs to the Ministry of Iraqi electricity. The results of the comparison show that the neural network gives a good prediction for the load forecasting and for two days ahead.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, artificial neural networks, back propagation learning, hourly load demand

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Authors: Carolina Senabre, Sergio Valero, Miguel Lopez, Antonio Gabaldon

Abstract:

This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the short-term load forecasting (STLF). Since the behavior of consumers and producers continue changing as new technologies, it is an ongoing process, and moreover, new policies become available. The results of a research study for the Spanish Transport System Operator (REE) is presented in this paper. It is presented the improvement of the forecasting accuracy in the Balearic Islands considering the introduction of meteorological variables, such as temperature to reduce forecasting error. Variables analyzed for the forecasting in terms of overall accuracy are cloudiness, solar radiation, and wind velocity. It has also been analyzed the type of days to be considered in the research.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, power demand, neural networks, load forecasting

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Authors: Aswathi Thrivikraman, S. Advaith

Abstract:

The study is aimed at designing encoders for deciphering intricacies in time series data by redescribing the dynamics operating on a lower-dimensional manifold. A semi-supervised LSTM autoencoder is devised and investigated to see if the latent representation of the time series data can better forecast the data. End-to-end training of the LSTM autoencoder, together with another LSTM network that is connected to the latent space, forces the hidden states of the encoder to represent the most meaningful latent variables relevant for forecasting. Furthermore, the study compares the predictions with those of a traditional seq2seq model.

Keywords: LSTM, autoencoder, forecasting, seq2seq model

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Authors: Shu-Yu Chung, Ying-Fang Wang, Shih-Min Wang

Abstract:

To conduct long-term exposure assessments are important for workers exposed to chemicals with chronic effects. However, it usually encounters with several constrains, including cost, workers' willingness, and interference to work practice, etc., leading to inadequate long-term exposure data in the real world. In this study, an integrated approach was developed for conducting long-term exposure assessment for welding workers in a shipbuilding factory. A laboratory study was conducted to yield the fume generation rates under various operating conditions. The results and the measured environmental conditions were applied to the near field/far field (NF/FF) model for predicting long term fume exposures via the Monte Carlo simulation. Then, the predicted long-term concentrations were used to determine the prior distribution in Bayesian decision analysis (BDA). Finally, the resultant posterior distributions were used to assess the long-term exposure and serve as basis for initiating control strategies for shipbuilding workers. Results show that the NF/FF model was a suitable for predicting the exposures of metal contents containing in welding fume. The resultant posterior distributions could effectively assess the long-term exposures of shipbuilding welders. Welders' long-term Fe, Mn and Pb exposures were found with high possibilities to exceed the action level indicating preventive measures should be taken for reducing welders' exposures immediately. Though the resultant posterior distribution can only be regarded as the best solution based on the currently available predicting and monitoring data, the proposed integrated approach can be regarded as a possible solution for conducting long term exposure assessment in the field.

Keywords: Bayesian decision analysis, exposure assessment, near field and far field model, shipbuilding industry, welding fume

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Authors: Thaveesha Dheerasekera, Dileeka Sandamali Alwis

Abstract:

The escalating prevalence of mental health issues, such as depression and suicidal ideation, is a matter of significant global concern. It is plausible that a variety of factors, such as life events, social isolation, and preexisting physiological or psychological health conditions, could instigate or exacerbate these conditions. Traditional approaches to diagnosing depression entail a considerable amount of time and necessitate the involvement of adept practitioners. This underscores the necessity for automated systems capable of promptly detecting and diagnosing symptoms of depression. The PsyVBot system employs sophisticated natural language processing and machine learning methodologies, including the use of the NLTK toolkit for dataset preprocessing and the utilization of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. The PsyVBot exhibits a remarkable ability to diagnose depression with a 94% accuracy rate through the analysis of user input. Consequently, this resource proves to be efficacious for individuals, particularly those enrolled in academic institutions, who may encounter challenges pertaining to their psychological well-being. The PsyVBot employs a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model that comprises a total of three layers, namely an embedding layer, an LSTM layer, and a dense layer. The stratification of these layers facilitates a precise examination of linguistic patterns that are associated with the condition of depression. The PsyVBot has the capability to accurately assess an individual's level of depression through the identification of linguistic and contextual cues. The task is achieved via a rigorous training regimen, which is executed by utilizing a dataset comprising information sourced from the subreddit r/SuicideWatch. The diverse data present in the dataset ensures precise and delicate identification of symptoms linked with depression, thereby guaranteeing accuracy. PsyVBot not only possesses diagnostic capabilities but also enhances the user experience through the utilization of audio outputs. This feature enables users to engage in more captivating and interactive interactions. The PsyVBot platform offers individuals the opportunity to conveniently diagnose mental health challenges through a confidential and user-friendly interface. Regarding the advancement of PsyVBot, maintaining user confidentiality and upholding ethical principles are of paramount significance. It is imperative to note that diligent efforts are undertaken to adhere to ethical standards, thereby safeguarding the confidentiality of user information and ensuring its security. Moreover, the chatbot fosters a conducive atmosphere that is supportive and compassionate, thereby promoting psychological welfare. In brief, PsyVBot is an automated conversational agent that utilizes an LSTM model to assess the level of depression in accordance with the input provided by the user. The demonstrated accuracy rate of 94% serves as a promising indication of the potential efficacy of employing natural language processing and machine learning techniques in tackling challenges associated with mental health. The reliability of PsyVBot is further improved by the fact that it makes use of the Reddit dataset and incorporates Natural Language Toolkit (NLTK) for preprocessing. PsyVBot represents a pioneering and user-centric solution that furnishes an easily accessible and confidential medium for seeking assistance. The present platform is offered as a modality to tackle the pervasive issue of depression and the contemplation of suicide.

Keywords: chatbot, depression diagnosis, LSTM model, natural language process

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