Search results for: times series analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 31912

Search results for: times series analysis

30802 Perception and Participation Quality Assurance in Higher Education: A Case Study of Phranakhon Rajabhat University, Thailand

Authors: O. Vanijajiva, K. Oumaree, N. Ngampak

Abstract:

This research aims to study the level of perception and participation of Phranakhon Rajabhat University staff and to study the relationship between the levels of perception and participation with the score of University evaluation of quality assurance in education. The respondents were composed of 479 staffs. The tool used in this research is perceived and participation questionnaire of quality assurance in education of Phranakhon Rajabhat University. The results found that the most staffs are female with undergraduate education. Most 2 respondents are revealing educational staffs without academic position. The fact of times to gain knowledge of quality assurance in education is 1-3 times. The perception of knowledge about quality assurance in education is moderate (3.74 ± 0.65) with most respondent are more focus on university activity than quality assurance in education activity. The participation of quality assurance in education activities involved in moderate (3.17 ± 0.88), with most respondents more involved in student affair than quality assurance in education motion. For assessment of the relationship of perception and participation of quality assurance in education are average score (4.31 ± 0.16) showed that the level of perception and participation was associated with university evaluation in very low level (r = -0.103 and -0.121, respectively), while perception and participation are correlated with the moderate level (r = 0.691).

Keywords: quality assurance education, awareness, participation, higher education, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 367
30801 Structure and Magnetic Properties of M-Type Sr-Hexaferrite with Ca, La Substitutions

Authors: Eun-Soo Lim, Young-Min Kang

Abstract:

M-type Sr-hexaferrite (SrFe₁₂O₁₉) have been studied during the past decades because it is the most utilized materials in permanent magnets due to their low price, outstanding chemical stability, and appropriate hard magnetic properties. Many attempts have been made to improve the intrinsic magnetic properties of M-type Sr-hexaferrites (SrM), such as by improving the saturation magnetization (MS) and crystalline anisotropy by cation substitution. It is well proved that the Ca-La-Co substitutions are one of the most successful approaches, which lead to a significant enhancement in the crystalline anisotropy without reducing MS, and thus the Ca-La-Co-doped SrM have been commercialized in high-grade magnet products. In this research, the effect of respective doping of Ca and La into the SrM lattices were studied with assumptions that these elements could substitute both of Fe and Sr sites. The hexaferrite samples of stoichiometric SrFe₁₂O₁₉ (SrM) and the Ca substituted SrM with formulae of Sr₁₋ₓCaₓFe₁₂Oₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) and SrFe₁₂₋ₓCaₓOₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4), and also La substituted SrM of Sr₁₋ₓLaₓFe₁₂Oₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) and SrFe₁₂₋ₓLaₓOₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) were prepared by conventional solid state reaction processes. X-ray diffraction (XRD) with a Cu Kα radiation source (λ=0.154056 nm) was used for phase analysis. Microstructural observation was conducted with a field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM). M-H measurements were performed using a vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) at 300 K. Almost pure M-type phase could be obtained in the all series of hexaferrites calcined at > 1250 ºC. Small amount of Fe₂O₃ phases were detected in the XRD patterns of Sr₁₋ₓCaₓFe₁₂Oₐ (x = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) and Sr₁₋ₓLaₓFe₁₂Oₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) samples. Also, small amount of unidentified secondary phases without the Fe₂O₃ phase were found in the samples of SrFe₁₂₋ₓCaₓOₐ (x = 0.4) and SrFe₁₂₋ₓLaₓOₐ (x = 0.3, 0.4). Although the Ca substitution (x) into SrM structure did not exhibit a clear tendency in the cell parameter change in both series of samples, Sr₁₋ₓCaₓFe₁₂Oₐ and SrFe₁₂₋ₓCaₓOₐ , the cell volume slightly decreased with doping of Ca in the Sr₁₋ₓCaₓFe₁₂Oₐ samples and increased in the SrFe₁₂₋ₓCaₓOₐ samples. Considering relative ion sizes between Sr²⁺ (0.113 nm), Ca²⁺ (0.099 nm), Fe³⁺ (0.064 nm), these results imply that the Ca substitutes both of Sr and Fe in the SrM. A clear tendency of cell parameter change was observed in case of La substitution into Sr site of SrM ( Sr₁₋ₓLaₓFe₁₂Oₐ); the cell volume decreased with increase of x. It is owing to the similar but smaller ion size of La³⁺ (0.106 nm) than that of Sr²⁺. In case of SrFe₁₂₋ₓLaₓOₐ, the cell volume first decreased at x = 0.1 and then remained almost constant with increase of x from 0.2 to 0.4. These results mean that La only substitutes Sr site in the SrM structure. Besides, the microstructure and magnetic properties of these samples, and correlation between them will be revealed.

Keywords: M-type hexaferrite, substitution, cell parameter, magnetic properties

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30800 Empirical Acceleration Functions and Fuzzy Information

Authors: Muhammad Shafiq

Abstract:

In accelerated life testing approaches life time data is obtained under various conditions which are considered more severe than usual condition. Classical techniques are based on obtained precise measurements, and used to model variation among the observations. In fact, there are two types of uncertainty in data: variation among the observations and the fuzziness. Analysis techniques, which do not consider fuzziness and are only based on precise life time observations, lead to pseudo results. This study was aimed to examine the behavior of empirical acceleration functions using fuzzy lifetimes data. The results showed an increased fuzziness in the transformed life times as compare to the input data.

Keywords: acceleration function, accelerated life testing, fuzzy number, non-precise data

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30799 Study of a Few Additional Posterior Projection Data to 180° Acquisition for Myocardial SPECT

Authors: Yasuyuki Takahashi, Hirotaka Shimada, Takao Kanzaki

Abstract:

A Dual-detector SPECT system is widely by use of myocardial SPECT studies. With 180-degree (180°) acquisition, reconstructed images are distorted in the posterior wall of myocardium due to the lack of sufficient data of posterior projection. We hypothesized that quality of myocardial SPECT images can be improved by the addition of data acquisition of only a few posterior projections to ordinary 180° acquisition. The proposed acquisition method (180° plus acquisition methods) uses the dual-detector SPECT system with a pair of detector arranged in 90° perpendicular. Sampling angle was 5°, and the acquisition range was 180° from 45° right anterior oblique to 45° left posterior oblique. After the acquisition of 180°, the detector moved to additional acquisition position of reverse side once for 2 projections, twice for 4 projections, or 3 times for 6 projections. Since these acquisition methods cannot be done in the present system, actual data acquisition was done by 360° with a sampling angle of 5°, and projection data corresponding to above acquisition position were extracted for reconstruction. We underwent the phantom studies and a clinical study. SPECT images were compared by profile curve analysis and also quantitatively by contrast ratio. The distortion was improved by 180° plus method. Profile curve analysis showed increased of cardiac cavity. Analysis with contrast ratio revealed that SPECT images of the phantoms and the clinical study were improved from 180° acquisition by the present methods. The difference in the contrast was not clearly recognized between 180° plus 2 projections, 180° plus 4 projections, and 180° plus 6 projections. 180° plus 2 projections method may be feasible for myocardial SPECT because distortion of the image and the contrast were improved.

Keywords: 180° plus acquisition method, a few posterior projections, dual-detector SPECT system, myocardial SPECT

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30798 Studying Growth as a Pursuit of Disseminating Social Impact: A Conceptual Study

Authors: Saila Tykkyläinen

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to pave the way for more focused accumulation of knowledge on social enterprise growth. The body of research touching upon the phenomenon is somewhat fragmented. In order to make an effort to create a solid common ground, this study draws from the theoretical starting points and guidelines developed within small firm growth research. By analyzing their use in social enterprise growth literature, the study offers insights on whether the proven theories and concepts from small firm context could be more systematically applied when investigating growth of social enterprises. Towards this end, the main findings from social enterprise growth research are classified under the three research streams on growth. One of them focuses on factors of growth, another investigates growth as a process and the third is interested in outcomes of growth. During the analysis, special attention is paid on exploring how social mission of the company and the pursuit of augmenting its social impact are dealt within those lines of research. The next step is to scrutinize and discuss some of the central building blocks of growth research, namely the unit of analysis, conceptualization of a firm and operationalizing growth, in relation to social enterprise studies. It appears that the social enterprise growth literature stresses the significance of 'social' both as a main driver and principle outcome of growth. As for the growth process, this emphasis is manifested by special interest in strategies and models tailored to disseminate social impact beyond organizational limits. Consequently, this study promotes more frequent use of business activity as a unit of analysis in the social enterprise context. Most of the times, it is their products, services or programs with which social enterprises and entrepreneurs aim to create the impact. Thus the focus should be placed on activities rather than on organizations. The study also seeks to contribute back to the small firm growth research. Even though the recommendation to think of business activities as an option for unit of analysis stems from there, it is all too rarely used. Social entrepreneurship makes a good case for testing and developing the approach further.

Keywords: conceptual study, growth, scaling, social enterprise

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30797 Broadening Attentional Scope by Seeing Happy Faces

Authors: John McDowall, Crysta Derham

Abstract:

Broaden and build theory of emotion describes how experiencing positive emotions, such as happiness, broadens our ‘thought-action repertoire’ leading us to be more likely to go out and act on our positive emotions. This results in the building of new relationships, resources and skills, which we can draw on in times of need throughout life. In contrast, the experience of negative emotion is thought to narrow our ‘thought-action repertoire’, leading to specific actions to aid in survival. Three experiments aimed to explore the effect of briefly presented schematic faces (happy, sad, and neutral) on attentional scope using the flanker task. Based on the broaden and build theory it was hypothesised that there would be an increase in reaction time in trials primed with a happy face due to a broadening of attention, leading to increased flanker interference. A decrease in reaction time was predicted for trials primed with a sad face, due to a narrowing of attention leading to less flanker interference. Results lended partial support to the broaden and build hypothesis, with reaction times being slower following happy primes in incongruent flanker trials. Recent research is discussed in regards to potential mediators of the relationship between emotion and attention.

Keywords: emotion, attention, broaden and build, flanker task

Procedia PDF Downloads 478
30796 Design, Synthesis and Anti-Inflammatory Activity of Some Coumarin and Flavone Derivatives Containing 1,4 Dioxane Ring System

Authors: Asif Husain, Shah Alam Khan

Abstract:

Coumarins and flavones are oxygen containing heterocyclic compounds which are present in various biologically active compounds. Both the heterocyclic rings are associated with diverse biological actions, therefore considered as an important scaffold for the design of molecules of pharmaceutical interest. Aim: To synthesize and evaluate the in vivo anti-inflammatory activity of few coumrain and flavone derivatives containing 1,4 dioxane ring system. Materials and methods: Coumarin derivatives (3a-d) were synthesized by reacting 7,8 dihydroxy coumarin (2a) and its 4-methyl derivative (2b) with epichlorohydrin/ethylene dibromide. The flavone derivatives (10a-d) were prepared by using quercetin and 3,4 dihydroxy flavones. Compounds of both the series were also evaluated for their anti-inflammatory, analgesic activity and ulcerogenicity in animal models by reported methods. Results and Discussion: The structures of all newly synthesized compounds were confirmed with the help of IR, 1H NMR, 13C NMR and Mass spectral studies. Elemental analyses data for each element analyzed (C, H, N) was found to be within acceptable range of ±0.4 %. Flavone derivatives, but in particular quercetin containing 1,4 dioxane ring system (10d) showed better anti-inflammatory and analgesic activity along with reduced gastrointestinal toxicity as compared to other synthesized compounds. The results of anti-inflammatory and analgesic activities of both the series are comparable with the positive control, diclofenac. Conclusion: Compound 10d, a quercetin derivative, emerged as a lead molecule which exhibited potent anti-inflammatory and analgesic activity with significant reduced gastric toxicity.

Keywords: analgesic, anti-inflammatory, 1, 4 dioxane, coumarin, flavone

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30795 Evaluation of Reliability Flood Control System Based on Uncertainty of Flood Discharge, Case Study Wulan River, Central Java, Indonesia

Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana

Abstract:

The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: design flood, hydrological model, reliability, uncertainty, Wulan river

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30794 Comparison of Spiral Circular Coil and Helical Coil Structures for Wireless Power Transfer System

Authors: Zhang Kehan, Du Luona

Abstract:

Wireless power transfer (WPT) systems have been widely investigated for advantages of convenience and safety compared to traditional plug-in charging systems. The research contents include impedance matching, circuit topology, transfer distance et al. for improving the efficiency of WPT system, which is a decisive factor in the practical application. What is more, coil structures such as spiral circular coil and helical coil with variable distance between two turns also have indispensable effects on the efficiency of WPT systems. This paper compares the efficiency of WPT systems utilizing spiral or helical coil with variable distance between two turns, and experimental results show that efficiency of spiral circular coil with an optimum distance between two turns is the highest. According to efficiency formula of resonant WPT system with series-series topology, we introduce M²/R₋₁ to measure the efficiency of spiral circular coil and helical coil WPT system. If the distance between two turns s is too close, proximity effect theory shows that the induced current in the conductor, caused by a variable flux created by the current flows in the skin of vicinity conductor, is the opposite direction of source current and has assignable impart on coil resistance. Thus in two coil structures, s affects coil resistance. At the same time, when the distance between primary and secondary coils is not variable, s can also make the influence on M to some degrees. The aforementioned study proves that s plays an indispensable role in changing M²/R₋₁ and then can be adjusted to find the optimum value with which WPT system achieves the highest efficiency. In actual application situations of WPT systems especially in underwater vehicles, miniaturization is one vital issue in designing WPT system structures. Limited by system size, the largest external radius of spiral circular coil is 100 mm, and the largest height of helical coil is 40 mm. In other words, the turn of coil N changes with s. In spiral circular and helical structures, the distance between each two turns in secondary coil is set as a constant value 1 mm to guarantee that the R2 is not variable. Based on the analysis above, we set up spiral circular coil and helical coil model using COMSOL to analyze the value of M²/R₋₁ when the distance between each two turns in primary coil sp varies from 0 mm to 10 mm. In the two structure models, the distance between primary and secondary coils is 50 mm and wire diameter is chosen as 1.5 mm. The turn of coil in secondary coil are 27 in helical coil model and 20 in spiral circular coil model. The best value of s in helical coil structure and spiral circular coil structure are 1 mm and 2 mm respectively, in which the value of M²/R₋₁ is the largest. It is obviously to select spiral circular coil as the first choice to design the WPT system for that the value of M²/R₋₁ in spiral circular coil is larger than that in helical coil under the same condition.

Keywords: distance between two turns, helical coil, spiral circular coil, wireless power transfer

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30793 Climate Related Variability and Stock-Recruitment Relationship of the North Pacific Albacore Tuna

Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Naoki Suzuki, Kazumi Sakuramoto,

Abstract:

The North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga) is a temperate tuna species distributed in the North Pacific which is of significant economic importance to the Pacific Island Nations and Territories. Despite its importance, the stock dynamics and ecological characteristics of albacore still, have gaps in knowledge. The stock-recruitment relationship of the North Pacific stock of albacore tuna was investigated for different density-dependent effects and a regime shift in the stock characteristics in response to changes in environmental and climatic conditions. Linear regression analysis for recruit per spawning biomass (RPS) and recruitment (R) against the female spawning stock biomass (SSB) were significant for the presence of different density-dependent effects and positive for a regime shift in the stock time series. Application of Deming regression to RPS against SSB with the assumption for the presence of observation and process errors in both the dependent and independent variables confirmed the results of simple regression. However, R against SSB results disagreed given variance level of < 3 and agreed with linear regression results given the assumption of variance ≥ 3. Assuming the presence of different density-dependent effects in the albacore tuna time series, environmental and climatic condition variables were compared with R, RPS, and SSB. The significant relationship of R, RPS and SSB were determined with the sea surface temperature (SST), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with SST being the principal variable exhibiting significantly similar trend with R and RPS. Recruitment is significantly influenced by the dynamics of the SSB as well as environmental conditions which demonstrates that the stock-recruitment relationship is multidimensional. Further investigation of the North Pacific albacore tuna age-class and structure is necessary for further support the results presented here. It is important for fishery managers and decision makers to be vigilant of regime shifts in environmental conditions relating to albacore tuna as it may possibly cause regime shifts in the albacore R and RPS which should be taken into account to effectively and sustainability formulate harvesting plans and management of the species in the North Pacific oceanic region.

Keywords: Albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunga, recruitment, spawning stock biomass, recruits per spawning biomass, sea surface temperature, pacific decadal oscillation, El Niño southern oscillation, density-dependent effects, regime shift

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30792 Community Engagement Policy for Decreasing Childhood Lead Poisoning in Philadelphia

Authors: Hasibe Caballero-Gomez, Richard Pepino

Abstract:

Childhood lead poisoning is an issue that continues to plague major U.S. cities. Lead poisoning has been linked to decreases in academic achievement and IQ at levels as low as 5 ug/dL. Despite efforts from the Philadelphia Health Department to curtail systemic childhood lead poisoning, children continue to be identified with elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) above the CDC reference level for diagnosis. This problem disproportionately affects low-income Black communities. At the moment, remediation is costly, and with the current policies in place, comprehensive remediation seems unrealistic. This research investigates community engagement policy and the ways pre-exisiting resources in target communities can be adjusted to decrease childhood lead poisoning. The study was done with two methods: content analysis and case studies. The content analysis includes 12 interviews from stakeholders and five published policy recommendations. The case studies focus on Baltimore, Chicago, Rochester, and St. Louis, four cities with significant childhood lead poisoning. Target communities were identified by mapping five factors that indicate a higher risk for lead poisoning. Seven priority zipcodes were identified for the model developed in this study. For these urban centers, 28 policy solutions and suggestions were identified, with three being identified at least four times in the content analysis and case studies. These three solutions create an interdependent model that offers increased community awareness and engagement with the issue that could potentially improve health and social outcomes for at-risk children.

Keywords: at-risk populations, community engagement, environmental justice, policy translation

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30791 Worm Gearing Design Improvement by Considering Varying Mesh Stiffness

Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah

Abstract:

A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and stress distribution of worm gear sets. The approach is based upon considering the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness where the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well established formulae of spur gears. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented, allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. On the basis of the method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share were obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line

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30790 Evaluation of the Performance Measures of Two-Lane Roundabout and Turbo Roundabout with Varying Truck Percentages

Authors: Evangelos Kaisar, Anika Tabassum, Taraneh Ardalan, Majed Al-Ghandour

Abstract:

The economy of any country is dependent on its ability to accommodate the movement and delivery of goods. The demand for goods movement and services increases truck traffic on highways and inside the cities. The livability of most cities is directly affected by the congestion and environmental impacts of trucks, which are the backbone of the urban freight system. Better operation of heavy vehicles on highways and arterials could lead to the network’s efficiency and reliability. In many cases, roundabouts can respond better than at-level intersections to enable traffic operations with increased safety for both cars and heavy vehicles. Recently emerged, the concept of turbo-roundabout is a viable alternative to the two-lane roundabout aiming to improve traffic efficiency. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the operation and performance level of an at-grade intersection, a conventional two-lane roundabout, and a basic turbo roundabout for freight movements. To analyze and evaluate the performances of the signalized intersections and the roundabouts, micro simulation models were developed PTV VISSIM. The networks chosen for this analysis in this study are to experiment and evaluate changes in the performance of the movement of vehicles with different geometric and flow scenarios. There are several scenarios that were examined when attempting to assess the impacts of various geometric designs on vehicle movements. The overall traffic efficiency depends on the geometric layout of the intersections, which consists of traffic congestion rate, hourly volume, frequency of heavy vehicles, type of road, and the ratio of major-street versus side-street traffic. The traffic performance was determined by evaluating the delay time, number of stops, and queue length of each intersection for varying truck percentages. The results indicate that turbo-roundabouts can replace signalized intersections and two-lane roundabouts only when the traffic demand is low, even with high truck volume. More specifically, it is clear that two-lane roundabouts are seen to have shorter queue lengths compared to signalized intersections and turbo-roundabouts. For instance, considering the scenario where the volume is highest, and the truck movement and left turn movement are maximum, the signalized intersection has 3 times, and the turbo-roundabout has 5 times longer queue length than a two-lane roundabout in major roads. Similarly, on minor roads, signalized intersections and turbo-roundabouts have 11 times longer queue lengths than two-lane roundabouts for the same scenario. As explained from all the developed scenarios, while the traffic demand lowers, the queue lengths of turbo-roundabouts shorten. This proves that turbo roundabouts perform well for low and medium traffic demand. The results indicate that turbo-roundabouts can replace signalized intersections and two-lane roundabouts only when the traffic demand is low, even with high truck volume. Finally, this study provides recommendations on the conditions under which different intersections perform better than each other.

Keywords: At-grade intersection, simulation, turbo-roundabout, two-lane roundabout

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
30789 Artificial Intelligence Approach to Water Treatment Processes: Case Study of Daspoort Treatment Plant, South Africa

Authors: Olumuyiwa Ojo, Masengo Ilunga

Abstract:

Artificial neural network (ANN) has broken the bounds of the convention programming, which is actually a function of garbage in garbage out by its ability to mimic the human brain. Its ability to adopt, adapt, adjust, evaluate, learn and recognize the relationship, behavior, and pattern of a series of data set administered to it, is tailored after the human reasoning and learning mechanism. Thus, the study aimed at modeling wastewater treatment process in order to accurately diagnose water control problems for effective treatment. For this study, a stage ANN model development and evaluation methodology were employed. The source data analysis stage involved a statistical analysis of the data used in modeling in the model development stage, candidate ANN architecture development and then evaluated using a historical data set. The model was developed using historical data obtained from Daspoort Wastewater Treatment plant South Africa. The resultant designed dimensions and model for wastewater treatment plant provided good results. Parameters considered were temperature, pH value, colour, turbidity, amount of solids and acidity. Others are total hardness, Ca hardness, Mg hardness, and chloride. This enables the ANN to handle and represent more complex problems that conventional programming is incapable of performing.

Keywords: ANN, artificial neural network, wastewater treatment, model, development

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30788 Single Machine Scheduling Problem to Minimize the Number of Tardy Jobs

Authors: Ali Allahverdi, Harun Aydilek, Asiye Aydilek

Abstract:

Minimizing the number of tardy jobs is an important factor to consider while making scheduling decisions. This is because on-time shipments are vital for lowering cost and increasing customers’ satisfaction. This paper addresses the single machine scheduling problem with the objective of minimizing the number of tardy jobs. The only known information is the lower and upper bounds for processing times, and deterministic job due dates. A dominance relation is established, and an algorithm is proposed. Several heuristics are generated from the proposed algorithm. Computational analysis indicates that the performance of one of the heuristics is very close to the optimal solution, i.e., on average, less than 1.5 % from the optimal solution.

Keywords: single machine scheduling, number of tardy jobs, heuristi, lower and upper bounds

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30787 Unified Power Quality Conditioner Presentation and Dimensioning

Authors: Abderrahmane Kechich, Othmane Abdelkhalek

Abstract:

Static converters behave as nonlinear loads that inject harmonic currents into the grid and increase the consumption of the inactive power. On the other hand, the increased use of sensitive equipment requires the application of sinusoidal voltages. As a result, the electrical power quality control has become a major concern in the field of power electronics. In this context, the active power conditioner (UPQC) was developed. It combines both serial and parallel structures; the series filter can protect sensitive loads and compensate for voltage disturbances such as voltage harmonics, voltage dips or flicker when the shunt filter compensates for current disturbances such as current harmonics, reactive currents and imbalance. This double feature is that it is one of the most appropriate devices. Calculating parameters is an important step and in the same time it’s not easy for that reason several researchers based on trial and error method for calculating parameters but this method is not easy for beginners researchers especially what about the controller’s parameters, for that reason this paper gives a mathematical way to calculate of almost all of UPQC parameters away from trial and error method. This paper gives also a new approach for calculating of PI regulators parameters for purpose to have a stable UPQC able to compensate for disturbances acting on the waveform of line voltage and load current in order to improve the electrical power quality.

Keywords: UPQC, Shunt active filer, series active filer, PI controller, PWM control, dual-loop control

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30786 A Review of Spatial Analysis as a Geographic Information Management Tool

Authors: Chidiebere C. Agoha, Armstong C. Awuzie, Chukwuebuka N. Onwubuariri, Joy O. Njoku

Abstract:

Spatial analysis is a field of study that utilizes geographic or spatial information to understand and analyze patterns, relationships, and trends in data. It is characterized by the use of geographic or spatial information, which allows for the analysis of data in the context of its location and surroundings. It is different from non-spatial or aspatial techniques, which do not consider the geographic context and may not provide as complete of an understanding of the data. Spatial analysis is applied in a variety of fields, which includes urban planning, environmental science, geosciences, epidemiology, marketing, to gain insights and make decisions about complex spatial problems. This review paper explores definitions of spatial analysis from various sources, including examples of its application and different analysis techniques such as Buffer analysis, interpolation, and Kernel density analysis (multi-distance spatial cluster analysis). It also contrasts spatial analysis with non-spatial analysis.

Keywords: aspatial technique, buffer analysis, epidemiology, interpolation

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30785 Experimental Investigation of The Influence of Cement on Soil-Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Fly ash Mix Properties

Authors: Gehan Aouf, Diala Tabbal, Abd El Rahim Sabsabi, Rashad Aouf

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to assess the viability of utilizing Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Fly Ash (MSWIFA) with Ordinary Portland cement as soil reinforcement materials for geotechnical engineering applications. A detailed experimental program is carried out, followed by analysis of results. Soil samples were prepared by adding Cement to MSWIFA-soil mix at different percentages. Then, a series of laboratory tests were performed, namely: Sieve analysis, Atterberg limits tests, Unconfined compression test, and Proctor tests. A parametric study is conducted to investigate the effect of adding the cement at different percentages on the unconfined compression strength, maximum dry density, and optimum moisture content of clayey soil-MSWIFA The variation of contents of admixtures were 10%, 20%, and 30% for MSWIFA by dry total weight of soil and 10%, 15%, and 20% for Portland cement by dry total weight of the mix. The test results reveal that adding MSWIFA to the soil up to 20% increased the MDD of the mixture and decreased the OMC, then an opposite trend for results were found when the percentage of MSWIFA exceeds 20%. This is due to the low specific gravity of MSWIFA and to the greater water absorption of MSWIFA. The laboratory tests also indicate that the UCS values were found to be increased for all the mixtures with curing periods of 7, 14, and 28 days. It is also observed that the cement increased the strength of the finished product of the mix of soil and MSWIFA.

Keywords: clayey soil, cement, MSWIFA, unconfined compression strength

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30784 A Combined Activated Sludge-Sonication Process for Abattoir Wastewater Treatment

Authors: Pello Alfonso-Muniozguren, Madeleine Bussemaker, Devendra Saroj, Judy Lee

Abstract:

Wastewater treatment is becoming a worldwide concern due to new and tighter environmental regulations, and the increasing need for fresh water for the exponentially growing population. The meat industry has one of the highest consumption of water producing up to 10 times more polluted (BOD) wastewaters in comparison to domestic sewage. Therefore, suitable wastewater treatment methods are required to ensure the wastewater quality meet regulations before discharge. In the present study, a combined lab scale activated sludge-sonication system was used to treat pre-treated abattoir wastewater. A hydraulic retention time of 24 hours and a solid retention time of 13 days were used for the activated sludge process and using ultrasound as tertiary treatment. Different ultrasonic frequencies, powers and sonication times were applied to the samples and results were analysed for chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), total suspended solids, pH, total coliforms and total viable counts. Additionally, both mechanical and chemical effects of ultrasound were quantified for organic matter removal (COD and BOD) and disinfection (microorganism inactivation) using different techniques such as aluminum foil pitting, flow cytometry, and KI dosimetry.

Keywords: abattoir wastewater, ultrasound, wastewater treatment, water disinfection

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30783 The People's Tribunal: Empowerment by Survivors for Survivors of Child Abuse

Authors: Alan Collins

Abstract:

This study explains how The People’s Tribunal empowered survivors of child abuse. It examines how People’s tribunals can be effective mean of empowerment; the challenges of empowerment – expectation v. reality; the findings and how they reflect other inquiry findings; and the importance of listening and learning from survivors. UKCSAPT “The People’s Tribunal” was established by survivors of child sex abuse and members of civil society to investigate historic cases of institutional sex abuse. The independent inquiry, led by a panel of four judges, listened to evidence spanning four decades from survivors and experts. A common theme throughout these accounts showed that a series of institutional failures prevented abuse from being reported; and that there are clear links between children being rendered vulnerable by these failures and predatory abuse on an organised scale. It made a series of recommendations including the establishment of a permanent and open forum for victims to share experiences and give evidence, better links between mental health services and police investigations, and training for police and judiciary professionals on the effects of undisclosed sexual abuse. The main findings of the UKCSAPT report were:-There are clear links between children rendered vulnerable by institutional failures and predatory abuse on an organised scale, even if these links often remain obscure. -UK governmental institutions have failed to provide survivors with meaningful opportunities for either healing or justice. -The vital mental health needs of survivors are not being met and this undermines both their psychological recovery and access to justice. -Police and other authorities often lack the training to understand the complex reasons for the inability of survivors to immediately disclose a history of abuse. -Without far-reaching changes in institutional culture and practices, the sexual abuse of children will continue to be a significant scourge in the UK. The report also outlined a series of recommendations for improving reporting and mental health provision, and access to justice for victims were made, including: -A permanent, government-funded popular tribunal should be established to enable survivors to come forward and tell their stories. -Survivors giving evidence should be assigned an advocate to assist their access to justice. -Mental health services should be linked to police investigations to help victims disclose abuse. -Victims who fear reprisals should be provided with a channel though which to give evidence anonymously.

Keywords: empowerment, survivors, sexual, abuse

Procedia PDF Downloads 257
30782 Performance Comparison of Thread-Based and Event-Based Web Servers

Authors: Aikaterini Kentroti, Theodore H. Kaskalis

Abstract:

Today, web servers are expected to serve thousands of client requests concurrently within stringent response time limits. In this paper, we evaluate experimentally and compare the performance as well as the resource utilization of popular web servers, which differ in their approach to handle concurrency. More specifically, Central Processing Unit (CPU)- and I/O intensive tests were conducted against the thread-based Apache and Go as well as the event-based Nginx and Node.js under increasing concurrent load. The tests involved concurrent users requesting a term of the Fibonacci sequence (the 10th, 20th, 30th) and the content of a table from the database. The results show that Go achieved the best performance in all benchmark tests. For example, Go reached two times higher throughput than Node.js and five times higher than Apache and Nginx in the 20th Fibonacci term test. In addition, Go had the smallest memory footprint and demonstrated the most efficient resource utilization, in terms of CPU usage. Instead, Node.js had by far the largest memory footprint, consuming up to 90% more memory than Nginx and Apache. Regarding the performance of Apache and Nginx, our findings indicate that Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP) becomes a bottleneck when the servers are requested to respond by performing CPU-intensive tasks under increasing concurrent load.

Keywords: apache, Go, Nginx, node.js, web server benchmarking

Procedia PDF Downloads 97
30781 Finite Element Analysis of Low-Velocity Impact Damage on Stiffened Composite Panels

Authors: Xuan Sun, Mingbo Tong

Abstract:

To understand the factors which affect impact damage on composite structures, particularly the effects of impact position and ribs. In this paper, a finite element model (FEM) of low-velocity impact damage on the composite structure was established via the nonlinear finite element method, combined with the user-defined materials subroutine (VUMAT) of the ABAQUS software. The structural elements chosen for the investigation comprised a series of stiffened composite panels, representative of real aircraft structure. By impacting the panels at different positions relative to the ribs, the effect of relative position of ribs was found out. Then the simulation results and the experiments data were compared. Finally, the factors which affect impact damage on the structures were discussed. The paper was helpful for the design of stiffened composite structures.

Keywords: stiffened, low-velocity impact, Abaqus, impact energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 621
30780 Comparing Implications of Manual and ROSA-assisted Total Knee Replacements on Patients and Physicians: A Scoping Review

Authors: Bassem M. Darwish, Robert H. Ablove

Abstract:

Introduction: Total knee arthroscopy (TKA) is a commonly performed procedure in patients with end-stage osteoarthritis and inaccuracy of component alignment in TKA has been shown to have many adverse post-operative outcomes such as accelerated implant wear, reduced functional outcomes, and shorter overall implant survival. Robotic surgical systems have been introduced to try and improve joint alignment and functional outcomes in knee arthroscopy, one recent iteration is the ROSA knee system, released to the market in 2019. The objective of this scoping review is to map the available evidence, identify the current types of evidence, and identify knowledge gaps to guide future studies on patient outcomes following ROSA-assisted total knee arthroplasties. Methods: An electronic search was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) extension for scoping reviews. Search terms included ROSA, knee arthroscopy, osteoarthritis, robotic, and malalignment. Types of study participants included patients with osteoarthritis, ages 18 and older, male or female, who received manual TKA (mTKA) or ROSA-assisted TKA (rTKA), and human patients or cadavers. Published, peer-reviewed controlled trials, observational studies, and case series were included. Case reports were not included in article review. Resulting articles were first screened based on title and abstract. Articles meeting inclusion criteria based on title and abstract review then underwent full-text review by the same reviewer. Results: This scoping review identified 11 total studies, 3 prospective observational studies, and 8 retrospective observational studies - a total of 970 rTKA patients and 1745 mTKA patients. There were no case series or randomized controlled trials comparing rTKA and mTKA. Patient-centered outcomes showed promise for rTKA, where it frequently showed significantly favorable functional outcomes, measured via KOOS-JR, VAS, KSS, OKS, FJS, and PROMIS scores, at various times postoperatively. However, there was much discrepancy about which score yielded significance at which postoperative follow-up. Complication rates, reoperation rates, and LOS were very similar between mTKA and rTKA groups. Studies also showed rTKA had more accurate joint alignment within the 0 ± 3o corridor and had significantly higher rates of achieving postoperative joint angles similar to the preoperative plan. Finally, there was major agreement that rTKA cases take significantly longer time at the start, however, there is a rapid learning curve. Once past the learning curve, rTKA cases are performed in a similar time to mTKA and reduced physician stress and strain. Conclusion: The ROSA knee system represents a promising option for the management of osteoarthritis via total knee arthroscopy. The studies reviewed in this paper favor the patient-centered function outcomes, joint alignments, and physician health implications of the ROSA knee system to conventional total knee arthroscopy. Further study is warranted, however, to better understand recovery periods, longer-term functional outcomes, operative fatigue, and reduction in radiation exposure.

Keywords: arthroplasty, knee, robotics, malalignment

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30779 Oral Contraceptic Pill Associated Hypertension on the Sex Productive Women in the Andalas Public Health Center, Padang, Indonesia

Authors: Armenia Nazar, Sally M. J. Anggelya, Rose Dinda

Abstract:

Hypertension prevalence in Indonesian has increased from time to time since 2013, especially in women. This cross-sectional analysis study was made to observe the incidence of hypertension on the reproductive women (20-49 years old) with several risk factors who use contraceptive pills. Data was collected from June - October 2016 in the Andalas Public Health Center, East Padang District, Indonesia. An amount of 167 respondents who were taken using consecutive sampling technique were participate in this study. Data of social demography, contraceptive used, duration of use, hypertension risk factors (age, family history, central obesity, body mass index, physical activity, and stress) were collected and analyzed statistically using Chi-Square analysis. Significant was taken at p < 0.05. Results showed that the woman with contraceptive pill was tent to get hypertension (OR = 3,90 and p < 0,001). In addition, woman with a family history OR of 6,77 (p = 0,09), mild physical activity OR of 3,67 (p = 0,33), moderate physical activity OR of 3,33 (p = 0,16), and stressed OR of 5.11 (p = 0.18). These indicated that the contraceptive pill user is 3.9 times more risk to develop hypertension than non-users, especially one with a family history of hypertension. Other risk factors were not associated with hypertension risk in these sex productive women.

Keywords: hypertension, oral contraceptive, sex productive woman, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 298
30778 Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought in Cholistan Region, Pakistan: An Application of Standardized Precipitation Index

Authors: Qurratulain Safdar

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Drought is a temporary aberration in contrast to aridity, as it is a permanent feature of climate. Virtually, it takes place in all types of climatic regions that range from high to low rainfall areas. Due to the wide latitudinal extent of Pakistan, there is seasonal and annual variability in rainfall. The south-central part of the country is arid and hyper-arid. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in arid and hyperarid region of Cholistan using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) approach. This study has assessed the extent of recurrences of drought and its temporal vulnerability to drought in Cholistan region. Initially, the paper described the geographic setup of the study area along with a brief description of the drought conditions that prevail in Pakistan. The study also provides a scientific foundation for preparing literature and theoretical framework in-line with the selected parameters and indicators. Data were collected both from primary and secondary data sources. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department. By applying geostatistical approach, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the study region, and the value of spatio-temporal variability of drought and its severity was explored. As a result, in-depth spatial analysis of drought conditions in Cholistan area was found. Parallel to this, drought-prone areas with seasonal variation were also identified using Kriging spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS environment. The study revealed that there is temporal variation in droughts' occurrences both in time series and SPI values. The paper is finally concluded, and strategic plan was suggested to minimize the impacts of drought.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, climate anomalies, metrological droughts, standardized precipitation index

Procedia PDF Downloads 213
30777 Assessing the Environmental Efficiency of China’s Power System: A Spatial Network Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

Authors: Jianli Jiang, Bai-Chen Xie

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The climate issue has aroused global concern. Achieving sustainable development is a good path for countries to mitigate environmental and climatic pressures, although there are many difficulties. The first step towards sustainable development is to evaluate the environmental efficiency of the energy industry with proper methods. The power sector is a major source of CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions. Evaluating the environmental efficiency (EE) of power systems is the premise to alleviate the terrible situation of energy and the environment. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been widely used in efficiency studies. However, measuring the efficiency of a system (be it a nation, region, sector, or business) is a challenging task. The classic DEA takes the decision-making units (DMUs) as independent, which neglects the interaction between DMUs. While ignoring these inter-regional links may result in a systematic bias in the efficiency analysis; for instance, the renewable power generated in a certain region may benefit the adjacent regions while the SO2 and CO2 emissions act oppositely. This study proposes a spatial network DEA (SNDEA) with a slack measure that can capture the spatial spillover effects of inputs/outputs among DMUs to measure efficiency. This approach is used to study the EE of China's power system, which consists of generation, transmission, and distribution departments, using a panel dataset from 2014 to 2020. In the empirical example, the energy and patent inputs, the undesirable CO2 output, and the renewable energy (RE) power variables are tested for a significant spatial spillover effect. Compared with the classic network DEA, the SNDEA result shows an obvious difference tested by the global Moran' I index. From a dynamic perspective, the EE of the power system experiences a visible surge from 2015, then a sharp downtrend from 2019, which keeps the same trend with the power transmission department. This phenomenon benefits from the market-oriented reform in the Chinese power grid enacted in 2015. The rapid decline in the environmental efficiency of the transmission department in 2020 was mainly due to the Covid-19 epidemic, which hinders economic development seriously. While the EE of the power generation department witnesses a declining trend overall, this is reasonable, taking the RE power into consideration. The installed capacity of RE power in 2020 is 4.40 times that in 2014, while the power generation is 3.97 times; in other words, the power generation per installed capacity shrank. In addition, the consumption cost of renewable power increases rapidly with the increase of RE power generation. These two aspects make the EE of the power generation department show a declining trend. Incorporation of the interactions among inputs/outputs into the DEA model, this paper proposes an efficiency evaluation method on the basis of the DEA framework, which sheds some light on efficiency evaluation in regional studies. Furthermore, the SNDEA model and the spatial DEA concept can be extended to other fields, such as industry, country, and so on.

Keywords: spatial network DEA, environmental efficiency, sustainable development, power system

Procedia PDF Downloads 108
30776 Risk Factors for Maternal and Neonatal Morbidities Associated with Operative Vaginal Deliveries

Authors: Maria Reichenber Arcilla

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Objective: To determine the risk factors for maternal and neonatal complications associated with operative vaginal deliveries. Methods: A retrospective chart review of 435 patients who underwent operative vaginal deliveries was done. Patient profiles – age, parity, AOG, duration of labor – and outcomes – birthweight, maternal and neonatal complications - were tabulated and multivariable analysis and logistic regression were performed using SPSS® Statistics Base. Results and Conclusion: There was no significant difference in the incidence of maternal and neonatal complications between those that underwent vacuum and forceps extraction. Among the variables analysed, parity and duration of labor reached statistical significance. The odds of maternal complications were 3 times higher among nulliparous patients. Neonatal complications were seen in those whose labor lasted more than 9 hours.

Keywords: operative vaginal deliveries, maternal, neonatal, morbidity

Procedia PDF Downloads 406
30775 Identification of Some Factors Influencing Serum Uric Acid Concentration in Individuals With Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Munkhtuul G., Bolortsetseg Z., Lutzul M., Sugar N., Nyamdorj D., Nomundari B., Zesemdorj O., Erdenebayar N., Lkhagvasuren T. S., Munkhbayarlakh S., Bayasgalan T. Uurtuya S. H.

Abstract:

Background: Elevated serum uric acid (SUA) levels are observed in metabolic and cardiovascular conditions as an early predictor of metabolic syndrome (MS). Hyperuricemia, characterised by high uric acid levels in serum, increases the risk of developing MS by 1.6 times. Being overweight and obese significantly contributes to developing MS and cardiovascular disorders. In Mongolia, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is reaching 48.8% among individuals aged 15 to 49 years, indicating a potential surge in the incidence of MS, cardiovascular disorders, diabetes mellitus, and gout.Objective: This study aimed to determine the SUA levels in men diagnosed with MS and investigate the factors influencing these levels.Methods: A total of 119 men aged 30-60, who underwent preventive examinations and resided in Ulaanbaatar city, were included in the study. The criteria established by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), American Heart Association (AHA), and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) were employed to define metabolic syndrome. Hyperuricemia was defined as SUA levels ≥7 mg/dL. Dietary intake was evaluated through the 24-hour recall method.Results: The study revealed that the prevalence of MS among the participants was 42.9% (n=51), with hyperuricemia observed in 16.8% (n=20) of the individuals. Among men diagnosed with MS, 21.3% (n=10) exhibited hyperuricemia. The mean SUA levels were as follows: 4.7±0.8 mg/dL in the healthy group, 5.9±1.1 mg/dL in men without MS but presenting central obesity, and 6.2±1.3 mg/dL in men with MS. After adjusting for age and body mass index (BMI), a positive correlation was observed between SUA levels and triglycerides (β=0.93) as well as lipid accumulation product (LAP) (β=0.92) in men with MS. In the central obesity group, SUA levels exhibited a positive correlation with triglycerides (β=0.91), visceral adiposity index (VAI) (β=0.73), LAP (β=0.92), and cardiometabolic index (CMI) (β=0.69). The risk of hyperuricemia increased by 3.29 times with elevated triglycerides and 3.53 times with an increased LAP.Conclusion: The findings indicate that abdominal fat accumulation, as indicated by elevated triglyceride levels and LAP, is associated with increased SUA levels in men with MS. However, no significant relationship was observed between SUA levels and dietary intake.

Keywords: central obesity, obesity, triglycerides, hyperuricemia

Procedia PDF Downloads 62
30774 Persuading ICT Consumers to Disconnect from Work: An Experimental Study on the Influence of Message Frame, Regulatory Focus, Ad Believability and Attitude toward the Ad on Message Effectiveness

Authors: Katharina Ninaus, Ralf Terlutter, Sandra Diehl

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Information and communication technologies (ICT) have become pervasive in all areas of modern life, both in work and leisure. Technological developments and particularly the ubiquity of smartphones have made it possible for ICT consumers to be constantly connected to work, fostering an always-on mentality and increasing the pressure to be accessible at all times. However, performing work tasks outside of working hours using ICT results in a lack of mental detachment and recovery from work. It is, therefore, necessary to develop effective behavioral interventions to increase risk awareness of a constant connection to the workplace in the employed population. Drawing on regulatory focus theory, this study aims to investigate the persuasiveness of tailoring messages to individuals’ chronic regulatory focus in order to encourage ICT consumers to set boundaries by defining fixed times for professional accessibility outside of working hours in order to contribute to the well-being of ICT consumers with high ICT involvement in their work life. The experimental study examines the interaction effect between consumers’ chronic regulatory focus (i.e. promotion focus versus prevention focus) and positive or negative message framing (i.e. gain frame versus loss frame) on consumers’ intention to perform the advocated behavior. Based on the assumption that congruent messages create regulatory fit and increase message effectiveness, it is hypothesized that behavioral intention will be higher in the condition of regulatory fit compared to regulatory non-fit. It is further hypothesized that ad believability and attitude toward the ad will mediate the effect of regulatory fit on behavioral intention given that ad believability and ad attitude both determine consumer behavioral responses. Results confirm that the interaction between regulatory focus and message frame emerged as a predictor of behavioral intention such as that consumers’ intentions to set boundaries by defining fixed times for professional accessibility outside of working hours increased as congruency with their regulatory focus increased. The loss-framed ad was more effective for consumers with a predominant prevention focus, while the gain-framed ad was more effective for consumers with a predominant promotion focus. Ad believability and attitude toward the ad both emerged as predictors of behavioral intention. Mediation analysis revealed that the direct effect of the interaction between regulatory focus and message frame on behavioral intention was no longer significant when including ad believability and ad attitude as mediators in the model, indicating full mediation. However, while the indirect effect through ad believability was significant, the indirect effect through attitude toward the ad was not significant. Hence, regulatory fit increased ad believability, which then increased behavioral intention. Ad believability appears to have a superior effect indicating that behavioral intention does not depend on attitude toward the ad, but it depends on whether or not the ad is perceived as believable. The study shows that the principle of regulatory fit holds true in the context of ICT consumption and responds to calls for more research on mediators of health message framing effects.

Keywords: always-on mentality, Information and communication technologies (ICT) consumption, message framing, regulatory focus

Procedia PDF Downloads 210
30773 Natural Factors of Interannual Variability of Winter Precipitation over the Altai Krai

Authors: Sukovatov K.Yu., Bezuglova N.N.

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Winter precipitation variability over the Altai Krai was investigated by retrieving temporal patterns. The spectral singular analysis was used to describe the variance distribution and to reduce the precipitation data into a few components (modes). The associated time series were related to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation indices by using lag cross-correlation and wavelet-coherence analysis. GPCC monthly precipitation data for rectangular field limited by 50-550N, 77-880E and monthly climatological circulation index data for the cold season were used to perform SSA decomposition and retrieve statistics for analyzed parameters on the time period 1951-2017. Interannual variability of winter precipitation over the Altai Krai are mostly caused by three natural factors: intensity variations of momentum exchange between mid and polar latitudes over the North Atlantic (explained variance 11.4%); wind speed variations in equatorial stratosphere (quasi-biennial oscillation, explained variance 15.3%); and surface temperature variations for equatorial Pacific sea (ENSO, explained variance 2.8%). It is concluded that under the current climate conditions (Arctic amplification and increasing frequency of meridional processes in mid-latitudes) the second and the third factors are giving more significant contribution into explained variance of interannual variability for cold season atmospheric precipitation over the Altai Krai than the first factor.

Keywords: interannual variability, winter precipitation, Altai Krai, wavelet-coherence

Procedia PDF Downloads 188