Search results for: real time digital simulator
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 22688

Search results for: real time digital simulator

11348 To Investigate a Discharge Planning Connect with Long Term Care 2.0 Program in a Medical Center in Taiwan

Authors: Chan Hui-Ya, Ding Shin-Tan

Abstract:

Background and Aim: The discharge planning is considered helpful to reduce the hospital length of stay and readmission rate, and then increased satisfaction with healthcare for patients and professionals. In order to decrease the waiting time of long-term care and boost the care quality of patients after discharge from the hospital, the Ministry of Health and Welfare department in Taiwan initiates a program “discharge planning connects with long-term care 2.0 services” in 2017. The purpose of this study is to investigate the outcome of the pilot of this program in a medical center. Methods: By purpose sampling, the study chose five wards in a medical center as pilot units. The researchers compared the beds of service, the numbers of cases which were transferred to the long-term care center and transferred rates per month between the pilot units and the other units, and analyze the basic data, the long-term care service needs and the approval service items of cases transfer to the long-term care center in pilot units. Results: From June to September 2017, a total of 92 referrals were made, and 51 patients were enrolled into the pilot program. There is a significant difference of transferring rate between the pilot units and the other units (χ = 702.6683, p < 0.001). Only 20 cases (39.2% success rate) were approved to accept the parts of service items of long-term care in the pilot units. The most approval item was respite care service (n = 13; 65%), while it was third at needs ranking of service lists during linking services process. Among the reasons of patients who cancelled the request, 38.71% reasons were related to the services which could not match the patients’ needs and expectation. Conclusion: The results indicate there is a requirement to modify the long-term care services to fit the needs of cases. The researchers suggest estimating the potential cases by screening data from hospital informatics systems and to hire more case manager according the service time of potential cases. Meanwhile, the strategies shortened the assessment scale and authorized hospital case managers to approve some items of long-term care should be considered.

Keywords: discharge planning, long-term care, case manager, patient care

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11347 Crime Prevention with Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Mehrnoosh Abouzari, Shahrokh Sahraei

Abstract:

Today, with the increase in quantity and quality and variety of crimes, the discussion of crime prevention has faced a serious challenge that human resources alone and with traditional methods will not be effective. One of the developments in the modern world is the presence of artificial intelligence in various fields, including criminal law. In fact, the use of artificial intelligence in criminal investigations and fighting crime is a necessity in today's world. The use of artificial intelligence is far beyond and even separate from other technologies in the struggle against crime. Second, its application in criminal science is different from the discussion of prevention and it comes to the prediction of crime. Crime prevention in terms of the three factors of the offender, the offender and the victim, following a change in the conditions of the three factors, based on the perception of the criminal being wise, and therefore increasing the cost and risk of crime for him in order to desist from delinquency or to make the victim aware of self-care and possibility of exposing him to danger or making it difficult to commit crimes. While the presence of artificial intelligence in the field of combating crime and social damage and dangers, like an all-seeing eye, regardless of time and place, it sees the future and predicts the occurrence of a possible crime, thus prevent the occurrence of crimes. The purpose of this article is to collect and analyze the studies conducted on the use of artificial intelligence in predicting and preventing crime. How capable is this technology in predicting crime and preventing it? The results have shown that the artificial intelligence technologies in use are capable of predicting and preventing crime and can find patterns in the data set. find large ones in a much more efficient way than humans. In crime prediction and prevention, the term artificial intelligence can be used to refer to the increasing use of technologies that apply algorithms to large sets of data to assist or replace police. The use of artificial intelligence in our debate is in predicting and preventing crime, including predicting the time and place of future criminal activities, effective identification of patterns and accurate prediction of future behavior through data mining, machine learning and deep learning, and data analysis, and also the use of neural networks. Because the knowledge of criminologists can provide insight into risk factors for criminal behavior, among other issues, computer scientists can match this knowledge with the datasets that artificial intelligence uses to inform them.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, criminology, crime, prevention, prediction

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11346 A Literature Review on the Use of Information and Communication Technology within and between Emergency Medical Teams during a Disaster

Authors: Badryah Alshehri, Kevin Gormley, Gillian Prue, Karen McCutcheon

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In a disaster event, sharing patient information between the pre-hospitals Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and Emergency Department (ED) hospitals is a complex process during which important information may be altered or lost due to poor communication. The aim of this study was to critically discuss the current evidence base in relation to communication between pre-EMS hospital and ED hospital professionals by the use of Information and Communication Systems (ICT). This study followed the systematic approach; six electronic databases were searched: CINAHL, Medline, Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, and IEEE Xplore Digital Library were comprehensively searched in January 2018 and a second search was completed in April 2020 to capture more recent publications. The study selection process was undertaken independently by the study authors. Both qualitative and quantitative studies were chosen that focused on factors which are positively or negatively associated with coordinated communication between pre-hospital EMS and ED teams in a disaster event. These studies were assessed for quality and the data were analysed according to the key screening themes which emerged from the literature search. Twenty-two studies were included. Eleven studies employed quantitative methods, seven studies used qualitative methods, and four studies used mixed methods. Four themes emerged on communication between EMTs (pre-hospital EMS and ED staff) in a disaster event using the ICT. (1) Disaster preparedness plans and coordination. This theme reported that disaster plans are in place in hospitals, and in some cases, there are interagency agreements with pre-hospital and relevant stakeholders. However, the findings showed that the disaster plans highlighted in these studies lacked information regarding coordinated communications within and between the pre-hospital and hospital. (2) Communication systems used in the disaster. This theme highlighted that although various communication systems are used between and within hospitals and pre-hospitals, technical issues have influenced communication between teams during disasters. (3) Integrated information management systems. This theme suggested the need for an integrated health information system which can help pre-hospital and hospital staff to record patient data and ensure the data is shared. (4) Disaster training and drills. While some studies analysed disaster drills and training, the majority of these studies were focused on hospital departments other than EMTs. These studies suggest the need for simulation disaster training and drills, including EMTs. This review demonstrates that considerable gaps remain in the understanding of the communication between the EMS and ED hospitals staff in relation to response in disasters. The review shows that although different types of ICTs are used, various issues remain which affect coordinated communication among the relevant professionals.

Keywords: communication, emergency communication services, emergency medical teams, emergency physicians, emergency nursing, paramedics, information and communication technology, communication systems

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11345 Modelling Social Influence and Cultural Variation in Global Low-Carbon Vehicle Transitions

Authors: Hazel Pettifor, Charlie Wilson, David Mccollum, Oreane Edelenbosch

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Vehicle purchase is a technology adoption decision that will strongly influence future energy and emission outcomes. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the medium and long terms effects of socio-economic development, technological change and climate policy. In this paper we present a unique and transparent approach for improving the behavioural representation of these models by incorporating social influence effects to more accurately represent consumer choice. This work draws together strong conceptual thinking and robust empirical evidence to introduce heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real-world processes.

Keywords: behavioural realism, electric vehicles, social influence, vehicle choice

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11344 Quantification of the Erosion Effect on Small Caliber Guns: Experimental and Numerical Analysis

Authors: Dhouibi Mohamed, Stirbu Bogdan, Chabotier André, Pirlot Marc

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Effects of erosion and wear on the performance of small caliber guns have been analyzed throughout numerical and experimental studies. Mainly, qualitative observations were performed. Correlations between the volume change of the chamber and the maximum pressure are limited. This paper focuses on the development of a numerical model to predict the maximum pressure evolution when the interior shape of the chamber changes in the different weapon’s life phases. To fulfill this goal, an experimental campaign, followed by a numerical simulation study, is carried out. Two test barrels, « 5.56x45mm NATO » and « 7.62x51mm NATO,» are considered. First, a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) with a contact scanning probe is used to measure the interior profile of the barrels after each 300-shots cycle until their worn out. Simultaneously, the EPVAT (Electronic Pressure Velocity and Action Time) method with a special WEIBEL radar are used to measure: (i) the chamber pressure, (ii) the action time, (iii) and the bullet velocity in each barrel. Second, a numerical simulation study is carried out. Thus, a coupled interior ballistic model is developed using the dynamic finite element program LS-DYNA. In this work, two different models are elaborated: (i) coupled Eularien Lagrangian method using fluid-structure interaction (FSI) techniques and a coupled thermo-mechanical finite element using a lumped parameter model (LPM) as a subroutine. Those numerical models are validated and checked through three experimental results, such as (i) the muzzle velocity, (ii) the chamber pressure, and (iii) the surface morphology of fired projectiles. Results show a good agreement between experiments and numerical simulations. Next, a comparison between the two models is conducted. The projectile motions, the dynamic engraving resistances and the maximum pressures are compared and analyzed. Finally, using this obtained database, a statistical correlation between the muzzle velocity, the maximum pressure and the chamber volume is established.

Keywords: engraving process, finite element analysis, gun barrel erosion, interior ballistics, statistical correlation

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11343 The Impact of E-Marketing on Consumer Satisfaction

Authors: Nadia Fatima Zahra Malki

Abstract:

The world has witnessed a great revolution in to field of technology and communication, especially after the opening of markets (globalization). This has led to a change from traditional marketing, which depends on direct selling and buying, to electronic marketing; consequently, different corporations have adopted this new concept so as to gain time, effort and money for the sake of the customer’s satisfaction. The main reason for this study is to know the impact of electronic marketing on consumer satisfaction in the fields of communication through practical studies of Ooredoo customers, where the descriptive analytical method was used with statistics to analyze the results of the survey. It concluded that e-marketing effectively contributes to customer satisfaction.

Keywords: e-marketing, consumer, consumer behavior, satisfaction

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11342 Properties of Magnesium-Based Hydrogen Storage Alloy Added with Palladium and Titanium Hydride

Authors: Jun Ying Lin, Tzu Hsiang Yen, Cha'o Kuang Chen

Abstract:

Nowadays, the great majority believe that there is great potentiality in hydrogen storage alloy storing hydrogen by physical and chemical absorption. However, the hydrogen storage alloy is limited by high operation temperature. Scientists find that adding transition elements can improve the properties of hydrogen storage alloy. In this research, outstanding improvements of kinetic and thermal properties are given by the addition of Palladium and Titanium hydride to Magnesium-based hydrogen storage alloy. Magnesium-based alloy is the main material, into which TiH2 / Pd are added separately. Following that, materials are milled by a Planetary Ball Miller at 650 rpm. TGA/DSC and PCT measure the capacity, spending time and temperature of abs/des-orption. Additionally, SEM and XRD analyze the structures and components of material. It is clearly shown that Pd is beneficial to kinetic properties. 2MgH2-0.1Pd has the highest capacity of all the alloys listed, approximately 5.5 wt%. Secondly, there are not any new Ti-related compounds found from XRD analysis. Thus, TiH2, considered as the catalyst, leads to the condition of 2MgH2-TiH2 and 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd efficiently absorbing hydrogen in low temperature. 2MgH2-TiH2 can reach roughly 3.0 wt% in 82.4 minutes at 50°C and 8 minutes at 100°C, while2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd can reach 2.0 wt% in 400 minutes at 50°C and in 48 minutes at 100°C. The lowest temperature of 2MgH2-0.1Pd and 2MgH2-TiH2 is similar (320°C), otherwise the lowest temperature of 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd decrease by 20°C. From XRD, it can be observed that PdTi2 and Pd3Ti are produced by mechanical alloying when adding Pd as well as TiH2 into MgH2. Due to the synergistic effects between Pd and TiH2, 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd owns the lowest dehydrogenation temperature. Furthermore, the Pressure-Composition-Temperature (PCT) curve of 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd is measured at different temperature, 370°C, 350°C, 320°C and 300°C separately. The plateau pressure is given form the PCT curves above. In accordance to different plateau pressures, enthalpy and entropy in the Van’t Hoff equation can be solved. In 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd, the enthalpy is 74.9 KJ/mol and the entropy is 122.9 J/mol. Activation means that hydrogen storage alloy undergoes repeat abs/des-orpting processes. It plays an important role in the abs/des-orption. Activation shortens the abs/des-orption time because of the increase in surface area. From SEM, it is clear that the grain size and surface become smaller and rougher

Keywords: hydrogen storage materials, magnesium hydride, abs-/des-orption performance, Plateau pressure

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11341 Effects of Intracerebroventricular Injection of Ghrelin and Aerobic Exercise on Passive Avoidance Memory and Anxiety in Adult Male Wistar Rats

Authors: Mohaya Farzin, Parvin Babaei, Mohammad Rostampour

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Ghrelin plays a considerable role in important neurological effects related to food intake and energy homeostasis. As was found, regular physical activity may make available significant improvements to cognitive functions in various behavioral situations. Anxiety is one of the main concerns of the modern world, affecting millions of individuals’ health. There are contradictory results regarding ghrelin's effects on anxiety-like behavior, and the plasma level of this peptide is increased during physical activity. Here we aimed to evaluate the coincident effects of exogenous ghrelin and aerobic exercise on anxiety-like behavior and passive avoidance memory in Wistar rats. Forty-five male Wistar rats (250 ± 20 g) were divided into 9 groups (n=5) and received intra-hippocampal injections of 3.0 nmol ghrelin and performed aerobic exercise training for 8 weeks. Control groups received the same volume of saline and diazepam as negative and positive control groups, respectively. Learning and memory were estimated using a shuttle box apparatus, and anxiety-like behavior was recorded by an elevated plus-maze test (EPM). Data were analyzed by ANOVA test, and p<0.05 was considered significant. Our findings showed that the combined effect of ghrelin and aerobic exercise improves the acquisition, consolidation, and retrieval of passive avoidance memory in Wistar rats. Furthermore, it is supposed that the ghrelin receiving group spent less time in open arms and fewer open arms entries compared with the control group (p<0.05). However, exercising Wistar rats spent more time in the open arm zone in comparison with the control group (p<0.05). The exercise + Ghrelin administration established reduced anxiety (p<0.05). The results of this study demonstrate that aerobic exercise contributes to an increase in the endogenous production of ghrelin, and physical activity alleviates anxiety-related behaviors induced by intra-hippocampal injection of ghrelin. In general, exercise and ghrelin can reduce anxiety and improve memory.

Keywords: anxiety, ghrelin, aerobic exercise, learning, passive avoidance memory

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11340 The Use of Creativity to Nudge Students Into Heutagogy: An Implementation in Graduate Business Education

Authors: Ricardo Bragança, Tom Vinaimont

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This paper discusses the introduction of processes of self-determined learning (heutagogy) into a graduate course on financial modeling, using elements of entangled pedagogy and Biggs’ constructive alignment. To encourage learners to take control of their own learning journey and develop critical thinking and problem-solving skills, each session in the course receives tailor-made media-enhanced pedagogical assets. The design of those assets specifically supports entangled pedagogy, which opposes technological or pedagogical determinism in support of the collaborative integration of pedagogy and technology. Media assets for each of the ten sessions in this course consist of three components. The first component in this three-pronged approach is a game-cut-like cinematographic representation that introduces the context of the session. The second component represents a character from an open-source-styled community that encourages self-determined learning. The third component consists of a character, which refers to the in-person instructor and also aligns learning outcomes and assessment tasks, using Biggs’ constructive alignment, to the cinematographic and open-source-styled component. In essence, the course's metamorphosis helps students apply the concepts they've studied to actual financial modeling issues. The audio-visual media assets create a storyline throughout the course based on gamified and real-world applications, thus encouraging student engagement and interaction. The structured entanglement of pedagogy and technology also guides the instructor in the design of the in-class interactions and directs the focus on outcomes and assessments. The transformation process of this graduate course in financial modeling led to an institutional teaching award in 2021. The transformation of this course may be used as a model for other courses and programs in many disciplines to help with intended learning outcomes integration, constructive alignment, and Assurance of Learning.

Keywords: innovative education, active learning, entangled pedagogy, heutagogy, constructive alignment, project based learning, financial modeling, graduate business education

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11339 Toward a Measure of Appropriateness of User Interfaces Adaptations Solutions

Authors: Abderrahim Siam, Ramdane Maamri, Zaidi Sahnoun

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The development of adaptive user interfaces (UI) presents for a long time an important research area in which researcher attempt to call upon the full resources and skills of several disciplines. The adaptive UI community holds a thorough knowledge regarding the adaptation of UIs with users and with contexts of use. Several solutions, models, formalisms, techniques, and mechanisms were proposed to develop adaptive UI. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the fuzzy set theory for modeling the concept of the appropriateness of different solutions of UI adaptation with different situations for which interactive systems have to adapt their UIs.

Keywords: adaptive user interfaces, adaptation solution’s appropriateness, fuzzy sets

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11338 Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Using a Multilayer Network Approach

Authors: Nelson F. F. Ebecken, Gilberto C. Pereira, Lucio P. de Andrade

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Bays, estuaries and coastal ecosystems are some of the most used and threatened natural systems globally. Its deterioration is due to intense and increasing human activities. This paper aims to monitor the socio-ecological in Brazil, model and simulate it through a multilayer network representing a DPSIR structure (Drivers, Pressures, States-Impacts-Responses) considering the concept of Management based on Ecosystems to support decision-making under the National/State/Municipal Coastal Management policy. This approach considers several interferences and can represent a significant advance in several scientific aspects. The main objective of this paper is the coupling of three different types of complex networks, the first being an ecological network, the second a social network, and the third a network of economic activities, in order to model the marine ecosystem. Multilayer networks comprise two or more "layers", which may represent different types of interactions, different communities, different points in time, and so on. The dependency between layers results from processes that affect the various layers. For example, the dispersion of individuals between two patches affects the network structure of both samples. A multilayer network consists of (i) a set of physical nodes representing entities (e.g., species, people, companies); (ii) a set of layers, which may include multiple layering aspects (e.g., time dependency and multiple types of relationships); (iii) a set of state nodes, each of which corresponds to the manifestation of a given physical node in a layer-specific; and (iv) a set of edges (weighted or not) to connect the state nodes among themselves. The edge set includes the intralayer edges familiar and interlayer ones, which connect state nodes between layers. The applied methodology in an existent case uses the Flow cytometry process and the modeling of ecological relationships (trophic and non-trophic) following fuzzy theory concepts and graph visualization. The identification of subnetworks in the fuzzy graphs is carried out using a specific computational method. This methodology allows considering the influence of different factors and helps their contributions to the decision-making process.

Keywords: marine ecosystems, complex systems, multilayer network, ecosystems management

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11337 Studies on the Emergence Pattern of Cercariae from Fresh Water Snails (Mollusca: Gastropoda)

Authors: V. R. Kakulte, K. N. Gaikwad

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The emergence pattern of different types of cercariae form three snail hosts Melania tuberculata, Lymnea auricularia Viviparous bengalensis has been studied in detail. In natural emerging method the snails (2 to 3 at a time) were kept in separate test tube. This was constant source of living cercariae naturally emerging from the snails. The sunlight and artificial light play an important positive role in stimulating the emergence of cercariae has been observed. The effect of light and dark on the emission pattern of cercariae has been studied.

Keywords: cercariae, snail host, emergence pattern, gastropoda

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11336 An Analytical Formulation of Pure Shear Boundary Condition for Assessing the Response of Some Typical Sites in Mumbai

Authors: Raj Banerjee, Aniruddha Sengupta

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An earthquake event, associated with a typical fault rupture, initiates at the source, propagates through a rock or soil medium and finally daylights at a surface which might be a populous city. The detrimental effects of an earthquake are often quantified in terms of the responses of superstructures resting on the soil. Hence, there is a need for the estimation of amplification of the bedrock motions due to the influence of local site conditions. In the present study, field borehole log data of Mangalwadi and Walkeswar sites in Mumbai city are considered. The data consists of variation of SPT N-value with the depth of soil. A correlation between shear wave velocity (Vₛ) and SPT N value for various soil profiles of Mumbai city has been developed using various existing correlations which is used further for site response analysis. MATLAB program is developed for studying the ground response analysis by performing two dimensional linear and equivalent linear analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites using pure shear (Multi Point Constraint) boundary condition. The model is validated in linear elastic and equivalent linear domain using the popular commercial program, DEEPSOIL. Three actual earthquake motions are selected based on their frequency contents and durations and scaled to a PGA of 0.16g for the present ground response analyses. The results are presented in terms of peak acceleration time history with depth, peak shear strain time history with depth, Fourier amplitude versus frequency, response spectrum at the surface etc. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.374, 3.239 and 2.4245 for Mangalwadi site and 3.42, 3.39, 3.83 for Walkeswar site using 1979 Imperial Valley Earthquake, 1989 Loma Gilroy Earthquake and 1987 Whitter Narrows Earthquake, respectively. In the absence of any site-specific response spectrum for the chosen sites in Mumbai, the generated spectrum at the surface may be utilized for the design of any superstructure at these locations.

Keywords: deepsoil, ground response analysis, multi point constraint, response spectrum

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11335 Modelling Forest Fire Risk in the Goaso Forest Area of Ghana: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Approach

Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: forest, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso

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11334 Anaerobic Digestion of Organic Wastes for Biogas Production

Authors: Ayhan Varol, Aysenur Ugurlu

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Due to the depletion of fossil fuels and climate change, there is a rising interest in renewable energy sources. In this concept, a wide range of biomass (energy crops, animal manure, solid wastes, etc.) are used for energy production. There has been a growing interest in biomethane production from biomass. Biomethane production from organic wastes is a promising alternative for waste management by providing organic matter stabilization. Anaerobic digestion of organic material produces biogas, and organic substrate is degraded into a more stable material. Therefore, anaerobic digestion technology helps reduction of carbon emissions and produces renewable energy. The hydraulic retention time (HRT) and organic loading rate (OLR), as well as TS (VS) loadings, influences the anaerobic digestion of organic wastes significantly. The optimum range for HRT varies between 15 days to 30 days, whereas OLR differs between 0.5 to 5 g/L.d depending on the substrate type and its lipid, protein and carbohydrate contents. The organic wastes have biogas production potential through anaerobic digestion. In this study, biomethane production potential of wastes like sugar beet bagasse, agricultural residues, food wastes, olive mill pulp, and dairy manure having different characteristics was investigated in mesophilic CSTR reactor, and their performances were compared. The reactor was mixed in order to provide homogenized content at a rate of 80 rpm. The organic matter content of these wastes was between 85 to 94 % with 61% (olive pulp) to 22 % (food waste) dry matter content. The hydraulic retention time changed between 20-30 days. High biogas productions, 13.45 to 5.70 mL/day, were achieved from the wastes studied when operated at 9 to 10.5% TS loadings where OLR varied between 2.92 and 3.95 gVS/L.day. The results showed that food wastes have higher specific methane production rate and volumetric methane production potential than the other wastes studied, under the similar OLR values. The SBP was 680, 585, 540, 390 and 295 mL/g VS for food waste, agricultural residues, sugar beet bagasse, olive pulp and dairy manure respectively. The methane content of the biogas varied between 72 and 60 %. The volatile solids conversion rate for food waste was 62%.

Keywords: biogas production, organic wastes, biomethane, anaerobic digestion

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11333 The French Ekang Ethnographic Dictionary. The Quantum Approach

Authors: Henda Gnakate Biba, Ndassa Mouafon Issa

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Dictionaries modeled on the Western model [tonic accent languages] are not suitable and do not account for tonal languages phonologically, which is why the [prosodic and phonological] ethnographic dictionary was designed. It is a glossary that expresses the tones and the rhythm of words. It recreates exactly the speaking or singing of a tonal language, and allows the non-speaker of this language to pronounce the words as if they were a native. It is a dictionary adapted to tonal languages. It was built from ethnomusicological theorems and phonological processes, according to Jean. J. Rousseau 1776 hypothesis /To say and to sing were once the same thing/. Each word in the French dictionary finds its corresponding language, ekaη. And each word ekaη is written on a musical staff. This ethnographic dictionary is also an inventive, original and innovative research thesis, but it is also an inventive, original and innovative research thesis. A contribution to the theoretical, musicological, ethno musicological and linguistic conceptualization of languages, giving rise to the practice of interlocution between the social and cognitive sciences, the activities of artistic creation and the question of modeling in the human sciences: mathematics, computer science, translation automation and artificial intelligence. When you apply this theory to any text of a folksong of a world-tone language, you do not only piece together the exact melody, rhythm, and harmonies of that song as if you knew it in advance but also the exact speaking of this language. The author believes that the issue of the disappearance of tonal languages and their preservation has been structurally resolved, as well as one of the greatest cultural equations related to the composition and creation of tonal, polytonal and random music. The experimentation confirming the theorization designed a semi-digital, semi-analog application which translates the tonal languages of Africa (about 2,100 languages) into blues, jazz, world music, polyphonic music, tonal and anatonal music and deterministic and random music). To test this application, I use a music reading and writing software that allows me to collect the data extracted from my mother tongue, which is already modeled in the musical staves saved in the ethnographic (semiotic) dictionary for automatic translation ( volume 2 of the book). Translation is done (from writing to writing, from writing to speech and from writing to music). Mode of operation: you type a text on your computer, a structured song (chorus-verse), and you command the machine a melody of blues, jazz and, world music or, variety etc. The software runs, giving you the option to choose harmonies, and then you select your melody.

Keywords: music, language, entenglement, science, research

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11332 Dynamic Communications Mapping in NoC-Based Heterogeneous MPSoCs

Authors: M. K. Benhaoua, A. K. Singh, A. E. H. Benyamina

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In this paper, we propose heuristic for dynamic communications mapping that considers the placement of communications in order to optimize the overall performance. The mapping technique uses a newly proposed Algorithm to place communications between the tasks. The placement we propose of the communications leads to a better optimization of several performance metrics (time and energy consumption). Experimental results show that the proposed mapping approach provides significant performance improvements when compared to those using static routing.

Keywords: Multi-Processor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoCs), Network-on-Chip (NoC), heterogeneous architectures, dynamic mapping heuristics

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11331 Discovery of Exoplanets in Kepler Data Using a Graphics Processing Unit Fast Folding Method and a Deep Learning Model

Authors: Kevin Wang, Jian Ge, Yinan Zhao, Kevin Willis

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Kepler has discovered over 4000 exoplanets and candidates. However, current transit planet detection techniques based on the wavelet analysis and the Box Least Squares (BLS) algorithm have limited sensitivity in detecting minor planets with a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and long periods with only 3-4 repeated signals over the mission lifetime of 4 years. This paper presents a novel precise-period transit signal detection methodology based on a new Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) Fast Folding algorithm in conjunction with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to detect low SNR and/or long-period transit planet signals. A comparison with BLS is conducted on both simulated light curves and real data, demonstrating that the new method has higher speed, sensitivity, and reliability. For instance, the new system can detect transits with SNR as low as three while the performance of BLS drops off quickly around SNR of 7. Meanwhile, the GPU Fast Folding method folds light curves 25 times faster than BLS, a significant gain that allows exoplanet detection to occur at unprecedented period precision. This new method has been tested with all known transit signals with 100% confirmation. In addition, this new method has been successfully applied to the Kepler of Interest (KOI) data and identified a few new Earth-sized Ultra-short period (USP) exoplanet candidates and habitable planet candidates. The results highlight the promise for GPU Fast Folding as a replacement to the traditional BLS algorithm for finding small and/or long-period habitable and Earth-sized planet candidates in-transit data taken with Kepler and other space transit missions such as TESS(Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) and PLATO(PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars).

Keywords: algorithms, astronomy data analysis, deep learning, exoplanet detection methods, small planets, habitable planets, transit photometry

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11330 A Comparative Study of Cardio Respiratory Efficiency between Aquatic and Track and Field Performers

Authors: Sumanta Daw, Gopal Chandra Saha

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The present study was conducted to explore the basic pulmonary functions which may generally vary according to the bio-physical characteristics including age, height, body weight, and environment etc. of the sports performers. Regular and specific training exercises also change the characteristics of an athlete’s prowess and produce a positive effect on the physiological functioning, mostly upon cardio-pulmonary efficiency and thereby improving the body mechanism. The objective of the present study was to compare the differences in cardio-respiratory functions between aquatics and track and field performers. As cardio-respiratory functions are influenced by pulse rate and blood pressure (systolic and diastolic), so both of the factors were also taken into consideration. The component selected under cardio-respiratory functions for the present study were i) FEVI/FVC ratio (forced expiratory volume divided by forced vital capacity ratio, i.e. the number represents the percentage of lung capacity to exhale in one second) ii) FVC1 (this is the amount of air which can force out of lungs in one second) and iii) FVC (forced vital capacity is the greatest total amount of air forcefully breathe out after breathing in as deeply as possible). All the three selected components of the cardio-respiratory efficiency were measured by spirometry method. Pulse rate was determined manually. The radial artery which is located on the thumb side of our wrist was used to assess the pulse rate. Blood pressure was assessed by sphygmomanometer. All the data were taken in the resting condition. 36subjects were selected for the present study out of which 18were water polo players and rest were sprinters. The age group of the subjects was considered between 18 to 23 years. In this study the obtained data inform of digital score were treated statistically to get result and draw conclusions. The Mean and Standard Deviation (SD) were used as descriptive statistics and the significant difference between the two subject groups was assessed with the help of statistical ‘t’-test. It was found from the study that all the three components i.e. FEVI/FVC ratio (p-value 0.0148 < 0.01), FVC1 (p-value 0.0010 < 0.01) and FVC (p-value 0.0067 < 0.01) differ significantly as water polo players proved to be better in terms of cardio-respiratory functions than sprinters. Thus study clearly suggests that the exercise training as well as the medium of practice arena associated with water polo players has played an important role to determine better cardio respiratory efficiency than track and field athletes. The outcome of the present study revealed that the lung function in land-based activities may not provide much impact than that of in water activities.

Keywords: cardio-respiratory efficiency, spirometry, water polo players, sprinters

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11329 State of Conservation of the British Colonial Architectural Heritage of Karachi: Case Study of Damage Mapping of Empress Market Building

Authors: Tania Ali Soomro

Abstract:

In 1839, the British, after the annexation of the port city of Karachi, established a new urban centre consisting of various quarters and introduced new settlements there. These quarters were out of the boundaries of fortified native old area and now contain much of the oldest parts of the city and signify the colonial history of Karachi, in particular the Saddar Bazaar and the neighboring areas of Kharadar and Mithadar. These quarters bestow a mix of functional typology built in a hybrid form of construction - an adaptation of the western architectural attributes to regional requirements and characteristics. This approach is referred to as the Anglo Vernacular, Colonial or the Domestic Gothic architectural form. This research paper investigates the historical and architectural value of one such property: the Empress Market designed by then Municipal Architect, Ar. James Strachan in 1889 as a commemorative monument for the jubilee of Her Majesty the Queen Victoria; Empress of British India, at that time. This paper presents information on the present conservation status of the market building and highlights its role as a catalyst to the community interconnection. This building has survived to present day and functioned well, despite undergoing numerous transformations. A detailed analysis of the bio-degradation (Natural-Chemical dissolution of material) and the bio-deterioration (Manmade-Negative state change of the material) of the building, based on the examination of the prevailing causes of these bio-alterations is carried out, and is presented in form of a damage atlas containing both the categories of bio-alteration/ changes occurred to the building over the time. The research methodology followed in this paper starts with the available archival analysis, physical observation, photographic documentation, the statistics review and the interviews with the direct and indirect stakeholders. The results and findings of this research portray that these bio-alterations and changes are the essential part of the life cycle of Empress Market building which illustrate the historic development of the premise and therefore ought to be given due importance (depending upon their condition) while developing the conservation plan for the building.

Keywords: British colonial architecture, bio-alteration, bio-degradation, bio-deterioration, domestic gothic architectural form

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11328 A Xenon Mass Gauging through Heat Transfer Modeling for Electric Propulsion Thrusters

Authors: A. Soria-Salinas, M.-P. Zorzano, J. Martín-Torres, J. Sánchez-García-Casarrubios, J.-L. Pérez-Díaz, A. Vakkada-Ramachandran

Abstract:

The current state-of-the-art methods of mass gauging of Electric Propulsion (EP) propellants in microgravity conditions rely on external measurements that are taken at the surface of the tank. The tanks are operated under a constant thermal duty cycle to store the propellant within a pre-defined temperature and pressure range. We demonstrate using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations that the heat-transfer within the pressurized propellant generates temperature and density anisotropies. This challenges the standard mass gauging methods that rely on the use of time changing skin-temperatures and pressures. We observe that the domes of the tanks are prone to be overheated, and that a long time after the heaters of the thermal cycle are switched off, the system reaches a quasi-equilibrium state with a more uniform density. We propose a new gauging method, which we call the Improved PVT method, based on universal physics and thermodynamics principles, existing TRL-9 technology and telemetry data. This method only uses as inputs the temperature and pressure readings of sensors externally attached to the tank. These sensors can operate during the nominal thermal duty cycle. The improved PVT method shows little sensitivity to the pressure sensor drifts which are critical towards the end-of-life of the missions, as well as little sensitivity to systematic temperature errors. The retrieval method has been validated experimentally with CO2 in gas and fluid state in a chamber that operates up to 82 bar within a nominal thermal cycle of 38 °C to 42 °C. The mass gauging error is shown to be lower than 1% the mass at the beginning of life, assuming an initial tank load at 100 bar. In particular, for a pressure of about 70 bar, just below the critical pressure of CO2, the error of the mass gauging in gas phase goes down to 0.1% and for 77 bar, just above the critical point, the error of the mass gauging of the liquid phase is 0.6% of initial tank load. This gauging method improves by a factor of 8 the accuracy of the standard PVT retrievals using look-up tables with tabulated data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Keywords: electric propulsion, mass gauging, propellant, PVT, xenon

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11327 The LMPA/Epoxy Mixture Encapsulation of OLED on Polyimide Substrate

Authors: Chuyi Ye, Minsang Kim, Cheol-Hee Moon

Abstract:

The organic light emitting diode(OLED), is a potential organic optical functional materials which is considered as the next generation display technology with the advantages such as all-solid state, ultra-thin thickness, active luminous and flexibility. Due to the development of polymer-inorganic substrate, it becomes possible to achieve the flexible OLED display. However the organic light-emitting material is very sensitive to the oxygen and water vapor, and the encapsulation requires water vapor transmission rate(WVTR) and oxygen transmission rate(OTR) as lower as 10-6 g/(m2.d) and 10-5 cm3/(m2.d) respectively. In current situation, the rigorous WVTR and OTR have restricted the application of the OLED display. Traditional epoxy/getter or glass frit approaches, which have been widely applied on glass-substrate-based devices, are not suitable for transparent flexible organic devices, and mechanically flexible thin-film approaches are required. To ensure the OLED’s lifetime, the encapsulation material of the OLED package is very important. In this paper, a low melting point alloy(LMPA)-epoxy mixture in the encapsulation process is introduced. There will be a phase separation when the mixture is heated to the melting of LMPA and the formation of the double line structure between two substrates: the alloy barrier has extremely low WVTR and OTR and the epoxy fills the potential tiny cracks. In our experiment, the PI film is chosen as a flexible transparent substrate, and Mo and Cu are deposited on the PI film successively. Then the two metal layers are photolithographied to the sealing pattern line. The Mo is a transition layer between the PI film and Cu, at the same time, the Cu has a good wettability with the LMPA(Sn-58Bi). At last, pattern is printed with LMPA layer and applied voltage, the gathering Joule heat melt the LMPA and form the double line structure and the OLED package is sealed in the same time. In this research, the double-line encapsulating structure of LMPA and epoxy on the PI film is manufactured for the flexible OLED encapsulation, and in this process it is investigated whether the encapsulation satisfies the requirement of WVTR and OTR for the flexible OLED.

Keywords: encapsulation, flexible, low melting point alloy, OLED

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11326 Corporate Social Responsibility and the Legal Framework of Foreign Direct Investment: Time for Conceptual Innovation

Authors: Agata Ferreira

Abstract:

Rapidly increasing debates and initiatives in the area of Corporate Social Responsibility (“CSR”) have reached the world of international investment law. CSR standards that focus on the operations of multinational companies are increasingly relevant in the context of international investment policy making. In the past, the connection between CSR standards and legal framework for foreign direct investment has been largely non-existent. Recently, however, there is a growing trend of a more balance approach to rights and obligations as between investors and states under investment treaties. CSR principles join other social and environmental measures slowly being included in the investment treaties to enhance their sustainable development dimension. Issues of CSR are present on negotiation tables of new mega regional investment treaties like TTIP for example. To date, only a very few bilateral investment treaties and a handful of other international treaties with investment provisions include CSR clauses. In addition, the existing provisions tend to be of a soft type, where parties merely acknowledge importance of good corporate governance and CSR for sustainable development or generally affirm their aim to encourage enterprises to observe internationally recognised guidelines and principles of CSR. The relevant provisions often leave it up to the states to encourage enterprises operating within their territories to voluntarily incorporate CSR principles. The interaction between general non-binding CSR standards, domestic laws and policies and provisions of international investment treaties have not been tested by investment tribunals yet. The role of investment treaties in raising awareness and promoting CSR is still in its infancy. The use of CSR standards in the international investment protection regime for promotion of CSR standards, and as a tool for disciplining investors into complying with such standards, pose a number of questions and is met with resistance from investors` lobbies. Integration of these two areas, CSR and international investment law, both consisting of multilayered, diverse and often overlapping instruments is by no means an easy task. Whether international investment world is ready to embrace CSR standards or shrug them off is a matter of uncertain future. The subject however has been raised, first introductions have been made and the time will show whether the relationship between legal framework of international investment and CSR will flourish or remain dormant.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, foreign direct investment, investment treaties, sustainable development

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11325 Determination of Rare Earth Element Patterns in Uranium Matrix for Nuclear Forensics Application: Method Development for Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) Measurements

Authors: Bernadett Henn, Katalin Tálos, Éva Kováss Széles

Abstract:

During the last 50 years, the worldwide permeation of the nuclear techniques induces several new problems in the environmental and in the human life. Nowadays, due to the increasing of the risk of terrorism worldwide, the potential occurrence of terrorist attacks using also weapon of mass destruction containing radioactive or nuclear materials as e.g. dirty bombs, is a real threat. For instance, the uranium pellets are one of the potential nuclear materials which are suitable for making special weapons. The nuclear forensics mainly focuses on the determination of the origin of the confiscated or found nuclear and other radioactive materials, which could be used for making any radioactive dispersive device. One of the most important signatures in nuclear forensics to find the origin of the material is the determination of the rare earth element patterns (REE) in the seized or found radioactive or nuclear samples. The concentration and the normalized pattern of the REE can be used as an evidence of uranium origin. The REE are the fourteen Lanthanides in addition scandium and yttrium what are mostly found together and really low concentration in uranium pellets. The problems of the REE determination using ICP-MS technique are the uranium matrix (high concentration of uranium) and the interferences among Lanthanides. In this work, our aim was to develop an effective chemical sample preparation process using extraction chromatography for separation the uranium matrix and the rare earth elements from each other following some publications can be found in the literature and modified them. Secondly, our purpose was the optimization of the ICP-MS measuring process for REE concentration. During method development, in the first step, a REE model solution was used in two different types of extraction chromatographic resins (LN® and TRU®) and different acidic media for environmental testing the Lanthanides separation. Uranium matrix was added to the model solution and was proved in the same conditions. Methods were tested and validated using REE UOC (uranium ore concentrate) reference materials. Samples were analyzed by sector field mass spectrometer (ICP-SFMS).

Keywords: extraction chromatography, nuclear forensics, rare earth elements, uranium

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11324 Efficacy of Different Plant Extracts against Brevicoryne brassicae and Their Effects on Pollinators

Authors: Hafiza Javaria Ashraf, Asim Abbasi, Muhammad Hussnain Babar, Muhammad Sufyan

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Brevicoryne brassicae (Aphid) is not only the major biotic constraint of rapeseed crop but also transmits 20 different viral pathogens that cause diseases in crucifers. Aphids cause major losses to rapeseed by stunting growth and yield, with real damage being contamination of harvested heads. The misuse of pesticides has led to tremendous economic losses and hazards to human health and environmental pollution. Thus, newer approaches for pest control are continuously being sought. The naturally occurring, biologically active plant-based products seem to have a prominent role in the development of future commercial pesticides not only for increased productivity but their eco-friendly nature. The present experiment was carried out in Research Area of Ayub Agriculture Research Institute, Faisalabad to check the efficacy of different botanicals against rapeseed aphid. The tested botanicals were, neem seed extract, neem leaf extract, dathora seed extract, kaner leaf extract and aak leaf extract. Insecticide, advantage 20 EC served as the positive control in the experiment. Data was recorded before and after 1, 3 and 7 days of treatment application. The results of the experiment revealed that neem seed extract exhibited maximum mortality (48.42%) followed by dathora (45.54%) and kaner leaf extract (40.29%) after 7 days of treatment application. However minimum mortality i.e. 26.64% was observed in case of aak leaf extract. Advantage encountered maximum mortality i.e. 86.14%. All treatments caused maximum mortality after 7 days of treatment application. In case of pollinators maximum population reduction was observed in case of insecticide (74.29%) while minimum reduction was observed in neem leaf extract (11.57%). Hence it was concluded that unlike insecticides, plant based products can be a better option for regulating pests and conserving beneficial insect fauna.

Keywords: Aphid, mortality, plant based, pollinators

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11323 Testing Immunochemical Method for the Bacteriological Diagnosis of Bovine Tuberculosis

Authors: Assiya Madenovna Borsynbayeva, Kairat Altynbekovich Turgenbayev, Nikolay Petrovich Ivanov

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In this article presents the results of rapid diagnostics of tuberculosis in comparison with classical bacteriological method. The proposed method of rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis than bacteriological method allows shortening the time of diagnosis to 7 days, to visualize the growth of mycobacteria in the semi-liquid medium and differentiate the type of mycobacterium. Fast definition of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and its derivatives in the culture medium is a new and promising direction in the diagnosis of tuberculosis.

Keywords: animal diagnosis of tuberculosis, bacteriological diagnostics, antigen, specific antibodies, immunological reaction

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11322 Perception of Pre-Clinical Students towards Doctors Lifestyle

Authors: Shalinawati Ramli, Khairani Omar, Nurul Azmawati Mohamed, Zarini Ismail, Nur Syahrina Rahim, Nurul Hayati Chamhuri

Abstract:

Medical doctors’ work to prevent, diagnose, treat diseases, disorders, and injuries as well as prescribing medication. Many people are attracted to this profession because it gives them the opportunity to help others. Doctors’ improve quality of life by providing advice, healing physical ailments and performing complex surgeries. Medicine is a profession in which dedication to the wellbeing of others is of paramount importance. Balancing the requirements of work and personal life can be a struggle as the demand of work as a doctors’ is great. Perception and expectation of medical students regarding the lifestyle of doctors’ is important to ensure that they had made the right career choice. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess the perception of pre-clinical students regarding doctors’ lifestyle. This study is a cross-sectional study involving all third-year pre-clinical medical students at University Sains Islam Malaysia. A total of 81 students participated in this study. Participants were given a set of questionnaire consisting of demographic data, open-ended questions on their perception on doctors’ lifestyle of working environment, salary expectation and family life. Thematic analysis were used to analyse the data. The participants comprised 69% female and their age range was between 20-21 years old. Majority of them were from middle-income families. Majority of the students perceived that the doctors’ lifestyle would be busy (72%). Approximately 30% of them expected that the time schedule will be unpredictable, 21% mentioned that sacrifice is required and 16% perceived it as a tiring job. Other themes emerged were ‘requiring high commitment’ (6%), challenging (7%) and risky (4%). With regards to salary expectation, 48% expected reasonable salary, 33% high salary and 12% described it as 'not worth compared to the workload'. Majority of them perceived that their family life will be restricted (62%) and time management is important (33%). Only 15% mentioned that family members have to sacrifice and spousal understanding is important (7%). About 10% of them perceived that their family will not be affected by their profession. Majority of the medical students perceived a busy doctors’ lifestyle, reasonable salary and restricted family life. However, there was a significant proportion of them who required counselling for better preparation of their future lifestyle.

Keywords: doctors lifestyle, pre-clinical students, perception, understanding

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11321 Real World Cancer Pain Incidence and Treatment in Daily Hospital

Authors: Alexandru Grigorescu, Alexandra Protesanu

Abstract:

Background: Approximately 34-67 percent of cancer patients experience an episode of uncontrolled pain during the course of their disease, depending on the stage. The aim is to provide evidence-based data for pain prevalence, diagnosis and treatment recommendations on an integrative model of medical oncology and palliative care for patients with cancer diagnostic in a day hospital. Patients and method: Consultation registers and electronic records of 166 Patients (Pts) were studied from April 2022 to March 2023. Pts with pain syndrome were selected. The pain was objectified by the visual pain scale. To elucidate the causes of the pain, investigations were carried out: bone scintigraphy, CT scan, and PET-CT. The analgesic treatments were represented by weak and strong morphine, radiotherapy, and bisphosphonates. Result: During the mentioned period, 166 oncological patients (74 women and 92 men) were treated in the oncology day hospitalization service. There were 1,500 consultations, 40 of which were only for pain. The neoplastic locations were: gynecological, malignant melanoma, breast, gastric, bronchopulmonary, colorectal, liver, pancreatic, bladder, and kidney. 70 Pts presented pain syndrome. The causes of the pain were represented by bone metastases, compressive tumors, and post-surgical status. Drug treatment: Tramadol 47 Pts, of which 10 switched to a major opioid (Oxycodonum, Morphine sulfate), 20 Pts were treated with Oxycodonum as the first intention. In 5 patients ry to rotated morphine, 20 Pts received palliative radiotherapy, 10 Pts were treated with bisphosphonates. 2 Pts required neurosurgery consultation for an antalgic intervention. 5 Pts had important adverse reactions to morphine. All patients and their families were advised by a medical oncologist and psychologist for a lifestyle change. Conclusions: The prevalence of pain was similar to that described in the literature. In most cases, the pain could be managed in the day hospital. Weak and strong morphine represented the main pain therapy. Palliative radiotherapy was the second most effective therapy. Treatment with bisphosphonates was useful. Surgical interventions were rarely indicated. Discussions with patients and their families regarding the lifestyle change were important.

Keywords: cancer pain, opioids, medical oncology, palliative care

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11320 Effect of Interaction between Different Concentrations of Colchicine, Time Duration and Two Verities of Crepis capillaris on Chromosome Polyploidy in vitro Culture

Authors: Mosleh M. S. Duhoky, Payman A. A. Zibari

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These experiments were conducted at Tissue Culture Laboratory/ Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry/ University of Duhok during the period from January 2011 to May 2013. The objectives of this study were to study the effects of interaction between three different factors on percentage of polyploidy of Crepis capillaris by using Tissue culture technology. Concerning the data it is obvious that shaking of Crepis capillaris with 2B chromosome with 0.15 mM for ten days inscribed a high percentage of polyploidy within most fifteen passages.

Keywords: crepis capillaris, 2B chromosome, tissue culture, polyploidy

Procedia PDF Downloads 348
11319 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 125