Search results for: subjective probability

Authors: Kohtaroh Miyamoto

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As enterprise computing becomes more and more complex, the costs and technical challenges of IT system maintenance and support are increasing rapidly. One popular approach to managing IT system maintenance is to prepare and use an FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) system to manage and reuse systems knowledge. Such an FAQ system can help reduce the resolution time for each service incident ticket. However, there is a major problem where over time the knowledge in such FAQs tends to become outdated. Much of the knowledge captured in the FAQ requires periodic updates in response to new insights or new trends in the problems addressed in order to maintain its usefulness for problem resolution. These updates require a systematic approach to define the exact portion of the FAQ and its content. Therefore, we are working on a novel method to hierarchically structure the FAQ and automate the updates of its structure and content. We use structured information and the unstructured text information with the timelines of the information in the service incident tickets. We cluster the tickets by structured category information, by keywords, and by keyword modifiers for the unstructured text information. We also calculate an urgency score based on trends, resolution times, and priorities. We carefully studied the tickets of one of our projects over a 2.5-year time period. After the first 6 months, we started to create FAQs and confirmed they improved the resolution times. We continued observing over the next 2 years to assess the ongoing effectiveness of our method for the automatic FAQ updates. We improved the ratio of tickets covered by the FAQ from 32.3% to 68.9% during this time. Also, the average time reduction of ticket resolution was between 31.6% and 43.9%. Subjective analysis showed more than 75% reported that the FAQ system was useful in reducing ticket resolution times.

Keywords: FAQ system, resolution time, service incident tickets, IT system maintenance

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Authors: Zal U’yun Wan Mahmood, Norfaizal Mohamed, Nita Salina Abu Bakar, Yii Mei Wo, Abdul Kadir Ishak, Mohamad Noh Sawon, Mohd Tarmizi Ishak, Khairul Nizam Razali

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The study of thorium radiotracer bioaccumulation in the whole body tropical freshwater fish (Anabas testudeneus; climb pearch) was performed. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different Th-232 activity concentration andradiological dose in Anabas testudeneus under the laboratory bioaccumulation condition. Anabas testudeneus adults were exposed to different waterborne Th-232 levels: 0 BqL-1 (control), 50 BqL-1, 100 BqL-1,150 BqL-1and 200 BqL-1for 30 days. Radionuclide concentration ratios between the whole body levels and water levels were calculated and; total dose rates and risk quotients using ERICA Assessment Tool were also estimated. The results showed the increase of waterborne Th-232 concentration corresponded to a progressive decrease of Th concentration ratio. Meanwhile, the total dose rate (internal and external) in the whole body of Anabas testudeneus less than the ERICA dose rate screening value of 10 µGyh-1 and the risk quotient less than one. Thus, the findings can be concluded that the radiological dose of Th-232 to Anabas testudeneus is a very low probability and the situation may be considered to be of negligible radiological concern.

Keywords: Anabas testudeneus, bioaccumulation, radiological dose, Th-232

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Authors: Sopheak Sorn, Kwok Yip Szeto

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Reliability is one of the important measures of how well the system meets its design objective, and mathematically is the probability that a complex system will perform satisfactorily. When the system is described by a network of N components (nodes) and their L connection (links), the reliability of the system becomes a network design problem that is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, we address the network design problem for a random point set’s pattern in two dimensions. We make use of a Voronoi construction with each cell containing exactly one point in the point pattern and compute the reliability of the Voronoi’s dual, i.e. the Delaunay graph. We further investigate the communicability of the Delaunay network. We find that there is a positive correlation and a negative correlation between the homogeneity of a Delaunay's degree distribution with its reliability and its communicability respectively. Based on the correlations, we alter the communicability and the reliability by performing random edge flips, which preserve the number of links and nodes in the network but can increase the communicability in a Delaunay network at the cost of its reliability. This transformation is later used to optimize a Delaunay network with the optimum geometric mean between communicability and reliability. We also discuss the importance of the edge flips in the evolution of real soap froth in two dimensions.

Keywords: Communicability, Delaunay triangulation, Edge Flip, Reliability, Two dimensional network, Voronio

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Authors: Deepshikha Shukla, C. H. Solanki, Mayank K. Desai

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Amongst all the natural hazards, earthquakes have the potential for causing the greatest damages. Since the earthquake forces are random in nature and unpredictable, the quantification of the hazards becomes important in order to assess the hazards. The time and place of a future earthquake are both uncertain. Since earthquakes can neither be prevented nor be predicted, engineers have to design and construct in such a way, that the damage to life and property are minimized. Seismic hazard analysis plays an important role in earthquake design structures by providing a rational value of input parameter. In this paper, both mathematical, as well as computational methods adopted by researchers globally in the past five years, will be discussed. Some mathematical approaches involving the concepts of Poisson’s ratio, Convex Set Theory, Empirical Green’s Function, Bayesian probability estimation applied for seismic hazard and FOSM (first-order second-moment) algorithm methods will be discussed. Computational approaches and numerical model SSIFiBo developed in MATLAB to study dynamic soil-structure interaction problem is discussed in this paper. The GIS-based tool will also be discussed which is predominantly used in the assessment of seismic hazards.

Keywords: computational methods, MATLAB, seismic hazard, seismic measurements

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Authors: Tatsuya Otoshi, Masayuki Murata

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With the development and diversification of applications on the Internet, applications that require high responsiveness, such as video streaming, are becoming mainstream. Application responsiveness is not only a matter of communication delay but also a matter of time required to grasp changes in network conditions. The tradeoff between accuracy and measurement time is a challenge in network control. We people make countless decisions all the time, and our decisions seem to resolve tradeoffs between time and accuracy. When making decisions, people are known to make appropriate choices based on relatively small samples. Although there have been various studies on models of human decision-making, a model that integrates various cognitive biases, called ”quantum decision-making,” has recently attracted much attention. However, the modeling of small samples has not been examined much so far. In this paper, we extend the model of quantum decision-making to model decision-making with a small sample. In the proposed model, the state is updated by value-based probability amplitude amplification. By analytically obtaining a lower bound on the number of samples required for decision-making, we show that decision-making with a small number of samples is feasible.

Keywords: quantum decision making, small sample, MPEG-DASH, Grover's algorithm

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Authors: Juan F. Muñoz-Rosas, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Encarnación Álvarez-Verdejo, Pablo J. Moya-Fernández

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Poverty measurement is a very important topic in many studies in social sciences. One of the most important indicators when measuring poverty is the low income proportion. This indicator gives the proportion of people of a population classified as poor. This indicator is generally unknown, and for this reason, it is estimated by using survey data, which are obtained by official surveys carried out by many statistical agencies such as Eurostat. The main feature of the mentioned survey data is the fact that they contain several variables. The variable used to estimate the low income proportion is called as the variable of interest. The survey data may contain several additional variables, also named as the auxiliary variables, related to the variable of interest, and if this is the situation, they could be used to improve the estimation of the low income proportion. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulation studies to analyze numerically the performance of estimators based on several auxiliary variables. In this simulation study, we considered real data sets obtained from the 2011 European Union Survey on Income and Living Condition. Results derived from this study indicate that the estimators based on auxiliary variables are more accurate than the naive estimator.

Keywords: inclusion probability, poverty, poverty line, survey sampling

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Authors: Yongjian Du, Jinhua Sun, Kim M. Liew, Huahua Xiao

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Optimal allocation of emergency resources before a disaster is of great importance for emergency response. In reality, the pre-protection for a single critical node where accidents may occur is common. In this study, a model is developed to determine location and inventory decisions of multiple emergency resources among a set of candidate stations to minimize the total cost based on the constraints of budgetary and capacity. The total cost includes the economic accident loss which is accorded with probability distribution of time and the warehousing cost of resources which is increasing over time. A ratio is set to measure the degree of a storage station only serving the target node that becomes larger with the decrease of the distance between them. For the application of linear program, it is assumed that the length of travel time to the accident scene of emergency resources has a linear relationship with the economic accident loss. A computational experiment is conducted to illustrate how the proposed model works, and the results indicate its effectiveness and practicability.

Keywords: emergency response, integer linear program, multiple emergency resources, pre-allocation decisions, single potential accident node

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Authors: Ghania Zerari, Abderrezak Guessoum, Rachid Beguenane

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This paper introduces high-performance architecture for fully parallel stochastic Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC) field programmable gate array (FPGA) based LDPC decoder. The new approach is designed to decrease the decoding latency and to reduce the FPGA logic utilisation. To accomplish the target logic utilisation reduction, the routing of the proposed sub-variable node (VN) internal memory is designed to utilize one slice distributed RAM. Furthermore, a VN initialization, using the channel input probability, is achieved to enhance the decoder convergence, without extra resources and without integrating the output saturated-counters. The Xilinx FPGA implementation, of IEEE 802.3an standard LDPC code, shows that the proposed decoding approach attain high performance along with reduction of FPGA logic utilisation.

Keywords: low-density parity-check (LDPC) decoder, stochastic decoding, field programmable gate array (FPGA), IEEE 802.3an standard

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Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

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Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

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Authors: Brajevic-gizdic Igna, Vuletic Gorka

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Introduction: Research in opiate addiction is increasingly indicating the importance of substitution therapy in opiate addicts. Opiate addiction is a chronic relapsing disease that includes craving as a criterion. Craving has been considered a predictor of a relapse, which is defined as a strong desire with an excessive need to take a substance. The study aimed to measure the intensity of craving using the VAS (visual analog scale) in opioid addicts taking the Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST). Method: The total sample compromised of 30 participants in outpatient treatment. Two groups of opiate addicts were considered: Methadone-maintenance and buprenorphine-maintenance addicts. The participants completed the survey questionnaire during the outpatient treatment. Results: The results indicated high levels of cravings in patients during the treatment on OST, which is considered an important destabilization factor in abstinence. Thus, the use of methadone/buprenorphine dose should be considered. Conclusion: These findings provided an objective measurement of methadone /buprenorphine dosage and therapy options. The underdoes of OST can put patients at high risk of relapse, resulting in high levels of craving. Thus, when determining the therapeutic dose of OST, it is crucial to consider patients´ craving. This would achieve stabilization more quickly and avoid relapse in abstinence. Subjective physician assessment and patient’s statement are the main criteria to determine OST dosage. Future studies should use larger sample sizes and focus on the importance of intensity craving measurement on OST to objectify methadone /buprenorphine dosage.

Keywords: abstinence, addicts, methadone, OST, quality of life

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Authors: Andrew Fife, Jean-Francois Esculier, Codi Ramsey, Kim Hebert-Losier

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Objectives: We aimed to identify how an evidence-based educational video influences how runners select shoes, and perceive shoe comfort, satisfaction, and performance over three months in comparison with a control video. Design: Two groups participated in a double-blind randomised controlled trial. Method: Fifty-six runners were randomly assigned to view one of two video presentations prior to purchasing new shoes for road running in speciality stores. Runners completed a survey with regards to their own shoes and one in reference to the new shoes purchased at three timepoints: before first use, onemonth post-purchase, and three-months post-purchase. Perceived shoe comfort, satisfaction, and performance were assessed using 100 mm visual analogue scales. Factors that influenced their shoe purchase were ranked in order of importance. Results: Comfort and satisfaction were not significantly different between groups and timepoints. The perceived performance of new shoes (75.6 mm) was significantly greater than own shoes (mean: 67.6 mm) before first use, but ratings returned to own-shoe levels one month later in both groups. The group receiving the evidence-based presentation reported their purchased shoes as being influenced more by the video (55.4 mm) than the control group (21.8 mm), although both chose the same brand and model as previously worn over half of the time. Runners in both groups prioritised fit, comfort, and choosing similar shoes to the ones they previously used. Conclusions: In contrast to expectations, the evidence-based educational video did not appear to influence running shoe selection, or overall perceived shoe comfort, satisfaction, or performance.

Keywords: comfort, consumer behaviour, consciousness, education, running, shoes

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Authors: Zahra Ramezanpanah, Joachim Carvallo, Aurelien Rodriguez

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This paper aims to detect anomalies in streaming data using machine learning algorithms. In this regard, we designed two separate pipelines and evaluated the effectiveness of each separately. The first pipeline, based on supervised machine learning methods, consists of two phases. In the first phase, we trained several supervised models using the UNSW-NB15 data-set. We measured the efficiency of each using different performance metrics and selected the best model for the second phase. At the beginning of the second phase, we first, using Argus Server, sniffed a local area network. Several types of attacks were simulated and then sent the sniffed data to a running algorithm at short intervals. This algorithm can display the results of each packet of received data in real-time using the trained model. The second pipeline presented in this paper is based on unsupervised algorithms, in which a Temporal Graph Network (TGN) is used to monitor a local network. The TGN is trained to predict the probability of future states of the network based on its past behavior. Our contribution in this section is introducing an indicator to identify anomalies from these predicted probabilities.

Keywords: temporal graph network, anomaly detection, cyber security, IDS

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Chen Chou, Feng-Tyan Lin

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Big Data has been attracted a lot of attentions in many fields for analyzing research issues based on a large number of maternal data. Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) is one of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications in Taiwan, used to record starting point, end point, distance and travel time of vehicle on the national freeway. This study, taking advantage of ETC big data, combined with urban planning theory, attempts to explore various phenomena of inter-city transportation activities. ETC, one of government's open data, is numerous, complete and quick-update. One may recall that living area has been delimited with location, population, area and subjective consciousness. However, these factors cannot appropriately reflect what people’s movement path is in daily life. In this study, the concept of "Living Area" is replaced by "Influence Range" to show dynamic and variation with time and purposes of activities. This study uses data mining with Python and Excel, and visualizes the number of trips with GIS to explore influence range of Tainan city and the purpose of trips, and discuss living area delimited in current. It dialogues between the concepts of "Central Place Theory" and "Living Area", presents the new point of view, integrates the application of big data, urban planning and transportation. The finding will be valuable for resource allocation and land apportionment of spatial planning.

Keywords: Big Data, ITS, influence range, living area, central place theory, visualization

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Authors: Issa M. Hweidi, Saba W. Al-Ibraheem

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This study aimed to assess the increased hospital length of stay and healthcare costs associated with SSIs among ventriculoperitoneal shunting surgery patients in Jordan. This study adopted a retrospective and nested 1:1 matched case-control design. A non-probability convenient sample of 48 VP shunt patients was recruited for the purpose of the study. The targeted groups of the study basically used to cross-match the variables investigated to minimize the risk of confounding. Information was extracted from the text of patients' electronic health records. As compared to the non-SSI group, the SSI group had an extra mean healthcare cost of $13,696.53 (p=0.001) and longer hospital length of stay (22.64 mean additional days). Furthermore, Acinetobacter baumannii and Klebsiella pneumonia were identified as being the most predominant causative agents of SSIs. The results of this study may provide baseline data for national and regional benchmarking to evaluate the quality of care provided to likewise patients. Adherence to infection control strategies and protocols considering new surveillance methods of SSIs is encouraged.

Keywords: ventriculoperitoneal shunt, health care cost, length of stay, neurosurgery, surgical site infections

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Authors: Ernesto Linan, Linda Cruz, Lucero Becerra

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In this paper, a new hybridized algorithm based on Chemical Reaction Optimization and Simulated Annealing is proposed to solve the alignment sequence Problem. The Chemical Reaction Optimization is a population-based meta-heuristic algorithm based on the principles of a chemical reaction. Simulated Annealing is applied to solve a large number of combinatorial optimization problems of general-purpose. In this paper, we propose hybridization between Chemical Reaction Optimization algorithm and Simulated Annealing in order to solve the Sequence Alignment Problem. An initial population of molecules is defined at beginning of the proposed algorithm, where each molecule represents a sequence alignment problem. In order to simulate inter-molecule collisions, the process of Chemical Reaction is placed inside the Metropolis Cycle at certain values of temperature. Inside this cycle, change of molecules is done due to collisions; some molecules are accepted by applying Boltzmann probability. The results with the hybrid scheme are better than the results obtained separately.

Keywords: chemical reaction optimization, sequence alignment problem, simulated annealing algorithm, metaheuristics

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Authors: Dongqi Sun, Juan Tao, Yingying Wu

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This paper reexamines the appropriateness of contrarian trades as a proxy of informed trades, using high frequency Chinese stock data. Employing this measure for 5 minute intervals, a U-shaped intraday pattern of probability of informed trades (PIN) is found for the CSI300 stocks, which is consistent with previous findings for other markets. However, while dividing the trades into different sizes, a reversed U-shaped PIN from large-sized trades, opposed to the U-shaped pattern for small- and medium-sized trades, is observed. Drawing from the mixed evidence with different trade sizes, the price impact of trades is further investigated. By examining the relationship between trade imbalances and unexpected returns, larges-sized trades are found to have significant price impact. This implies that in those intervals with large trades, it is non-contrarian trades that are more likely to be informed trades. Taking account of the price impact of large-sized trades, non-contrarian trades are used to proxy for informed trading in those intervals with large trades, and contrarian trades are still used to measure informed trading in other intervals. A stronger U-shaped PIN is demonstrated from this modification. Auto-correlation and information advantage tests for robustness also support the modified informed trading measure.

Keywords: contrarian trades, informed trading, price impact, trade imbalance

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Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Deepika Verma, Runa Sarkar

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One of the prominent debates in the social entrepreneurship literature has been to establish whether entrepreneurial work for social well-being by for-profit organizations can be classified as social entrepreneurship or not. Of late, the scholarship has reached a consensus. It concludes that there seems little sense in confining social entrepreneurship to just non-profit organizations. Boosted by this research, increasingly a lot of businesses engaged in filling the social infrastructure gaps in developing countries are calling themselves social enterprise. These organizations are diverse in their ownership, size, objectives, operations and business models. The lack of a comprehensive definition of social enterprise leads to three issues. Firstly, researchers may face difficulty in creating a database for social enterprises because the choice of an entity as a social enterprise becomes subjective or based on some pre-defined parameters by the researcher which is not replicable. Secondly, practitioners who use ‘social enterprise’ in their vision/mission statement(s) may find it difficult to adjust their business models accordingly especially during the times when they face the dilemma of choosing social well-being over business viability. Thirdly, social enterprise and social entrepreneurship attract a lot of donor funding and venture capital. In the paucity of a comprehensive definitional guide, the donors or investors may find assigning grants and investments difficult. It becomes necessary to develop an exhaustive and objective definition of social enterprise and examine whether the understanding of the academicians and practitioners about social enterprise match. This paper develops a dictionary of words often associated with social enterprise or (and) social entrepreneurship. It further compares two lexicographic definitions of social enterprise imputed from the abstracts of academic journal papers and trade publications extracted from the EBSCO database using the ‘tm’ package in R software.

Keywords: EBSCO database, lexicographic definition, social enterprise, text mining

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Authors: Jiaqi XU, Qingru Sun

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Accent plays a crucial role in second language (L2) learners’ performance in the schooling context in the era of globalization, where English is adopted as a lingua franca (ELF). Previous studies found that Chinese mainland students prefer American English accents, whereas the young generations in Hong Kong prefer British accents. However, these studies neglect the non-native accents of English and fail to elaborate much about why the L2 learners differ in accent preferences between the two regions. Therefore, this research aims to bridge the research gap by 1) including both native and non-native varieties of English accents: American accent, British accent, Chinese Mandarin English accent, and Hong Kong English accent; and 2) uncovering and comparing the deeper reasons for the similar or/and different accent preferences between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong speakers. This research designed a questionnaire including objective and subjective questions to investigate the students’ accent inclinations and the attitudes and reasons behind their linguistic choices. The questionnaire was distributed to eight participants (4 Chinese mainland students and 4 Hong Kong students) who were postgraduate students at a Hong Kong university. Based on the data collection, this research finds out one similarity and two differences between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong students’ attitudes. The theories of identity construction and standard language ideology are further applied to analyze the reasons behind the similarities and differences and to evaluate how language attitudes intertwine with their identity construction and language ideology.

Keywords: accent, language attitudes, identity construction, language ideology, ELF communication

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Authors: Nida Amin, Fahad Tanveer, Hina Shabbir, Ayesha Saeed, Attiqa Riaz

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The gradual progression of corneal disorder keratoconus significantly impairs eyesight and quality of life, increasing the likelihood of depression. Using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) at the AL-Ibrahim Eye Hospital in Karachi, this study aimed to evaluate the occurrence of depression and anxiety symptoms in patients with keratoconus and to suggest better treatment. A descriptive-analytical study was conducted at Al-Ibrahim Eye Hospital Karachi from March to April 2022, and patients diagnosed with symptomatic keratoconus were recruited using a non-probability convenient sampling technique. After obtaining written informed consent from patients, keratoconus severity was assessed using visual acuity and corneal topography. Symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression (HADS) Scale. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Spearman correlation coefficient. Of the 108 participants, 60 (56%) were female and 48 (44%) were male. Using the HADS scale, 44 (40.7%) patients were classified as normal with a HADS score of (0-7), 23 (21.3%) as borderline with a HADS score of (8-10) and 41 (38%) patients were diagnosed with anxiety and depression with a HADS score of (11-21). Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent among patients in advanced stages of the disease.

Keywords: cornea, keratoconus, anxiety, depression, corneal topography, mental health

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Authors: Jane O. Munonye

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Climate change has both negative and positive effects in agricultural production. For agriculture to be sustainable in adverse climate change condition, some natural measures are needed. The issue is to produce more food with available natural resources and reduce the contribution of agriculture to climate change. The study reviewed climate change and sustainable agriculture in southeast Nigeria. Data from the study were from secondary sources. Ten scientific papers were consulted and data for the review were collected from three. The objectives of the paper were as follows: to review the effect of climate change on one major arable crop in southeast Nigeria (yam; Dioscorea rotundata); evident of climate change impact and methods for sustainable agricultural production in adverse weather condition. Some climatic parameter as sunshine, relative humidity and rainfall have negative relationship with yam production and significant at 10% probability. Crop production was predicted to decline by 25% per hectare by 2060 while livestock production has increased the incidence of diseases and pathogens as the major effect to agriculture. Methods for sustainable agriculture and damage of natural resources by climate change were highlighted. Agriculture needs to be transformed as climate changes to enable the sector to be sustainable. There should be a policy in place to facilitate the integration of sustainability in Nigeria agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, sustainability, yam

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Authors: Yonathan Audhitya Suthihono, Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti

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The radiology department in a tertiary referral hospital faces service operation challenges such as huge and various patient arrival, which can increase the probability of patient queuing. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is mandatory to apply social distancing protocol in the radiology department. A strategy to prevent the accumulation of patients at one spot would be required. The aim of this study is to identify an alternative solution which can reduce the patient’s waiting time in radiology department. Discrete event simulation (DES) is used for this study by constructing several improvement scenarios with Arena simulation software. Statistical analysis is used to test the validity of the base case scenario model and to investigate the performance of the improvement scenarios. The result of this study shows that the selected scenario is able to reduce patient waiting time significantly, which leads to more efficient services in a radiology department, be able to serve patients more effectively, and thus increase patient satisfaction. The result of the simulation can be used by the hospital management to improve the operational performance of the radiology department.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, hospital management patient queuing model, radiology department services

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Authors: Nour Tawil, Sandra Weber, Kirsten K. Roessler, Martin Mau, Simone Kuhn

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The link between “quality” residential environments and human health and well-being has long been proposed. While the physical properties of a sound environment have been fairly defined, little focus has been given to the psychological impact of architectural elements. Recently, studies have investigated the response to architectural parameters, using measures of physiology, brain activity, and emotion. Results showed different aspects of interest: detailed and open versus blank and closed facades, patterns in perceiving different elements, and a visual bias for capturing faces in buildings. However, in the absence of a consensus on methodologies, the available studies remain unsystematic and face many limitations regarding the underpinning psychological mechanisms. To bridge some of these gaps, an online study was launched to investigate design features that influence the aesthetic judgement and emotional evaluation of house facades, using a well-controlled stimulus set of Canadian houses. A methodical modelling of design features will be performed to extract both high and low level image properties, in addition to segmentation of layout-related features. 300 participants from Canada, Denmark, and Germany will rate the images on twelve psychological dimensions representing appealing aspects of a house. Subjective ratings are expected to correlate with specific architectural elements while controlling for typicality and familiarity, and other individual differences. With the lack of relevant studies, this research aims to identify architectural elements of beneficial qualities that can inform design strategies for optimized residential spaces.

Keywords: architectural elements, emotions, psychological response, residential facades.

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Authors: Oscar Maina Irungu

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Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mtwapa Town, Kilifi County are at high risk of HIV infection. Probability sample surveys to determine HIV prevalence among MSM in Mtwapa are needed to inform prevention and care services. Methods: In 2013, a cross-sectional survey was conducted among MSM aged 18-24 years old, using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in Mtwapa. Consenting MSM were tested for HIV (fingerstick rapid test). Population-based prevalence and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using RDS Analysis Tool (RDSAT). Results: Among 274 MSM, the median age was 20 years (IQR: 19-23 years). Fifty percent of MSM reported not selling sex, while 13.2 % reported sex work as their “main occupation”, and another 28.4 % reported selling sex in the past two months (but not as their main occupation).Overall HIV prevalence was 19.2 % (CI: 12.2-23.6%). HIV prevalence was higher among MSM who reported sex work as their main occupation (28.3%,CI: 12.1-42.3%) or selling sex in the past two months (26.6 %, CI: 17.2-35.7 %),than among MSM who did not sell sex (11.6%,CI: 7.0-18.1%). Conclusion: HIV prevalence among MSM were high than among Kilifi’s general population aged 15-64 years (8.8%; 2010 KAIS) and highest in male sex workers. Health programs need to address concerns and modify services to meet needs of diverse subgroups of MSM. We recommend continued, periodic surveillance to monitor HIV prevalence among MSM in Mtwapa, and expansion to other areas in Kenya.

Keywords: power point, Kenya, homosexuality, sex

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Authors: Patricia Wahl, Dirk Bruland, Albert Lenz

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Children of mentally ill parents are a large high risk group for mental disorders which is hardly reached by preventive programs. The children inherit a heightened risk to develop a mental disorder themselves during their lifetime, but they and their parents are often rejecting to seek help. To elicit the factors determining this prevention dilemma, an explorative qualitative interview study is conducted in 25 families with mentally ill parents and yet unaffected children. Inclusion criteria are the children’s age (7 to 14 years old) and that these children live together with the affected parent. With regard to the concept of Mental Health Literacy the following research questions are leading the Qualitative Content Analysis: What are the needs of families with mentally ill parents? How can their help-seeking behaviour be described? What are their subjective illness theories? And which influences do gender, ethnicity and socio-economic status have on needs, help-seeking and illness theories? Mental Health Literacy relates to the knowledge and attitudes towards mental disorders influencing the recognition, management or prevention of these disorders. The concept seems to be an interesting starting point for our analysis with the aim to understand antecedences and processes in the families more deeply. Results of an extensive literature review serve as deductive framework for our analysis, first findings from the interviews will be available up to the time of the conference and can be presented. They hopefully will give inside in the families’ living environment and help to adapt/develop interventions and in the long term reduce health inequalities. The project at hand is part of the Health Literacy in Childhood and Adolescence (HLCA) Research Consortium financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Keywords: children of mentally ill parents, help-seeking behaviour, mental health literacy, prevention dilemma

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Authors: Francesca Carta, Giovanna Linfante, Laura Agneni, Debora Radicchia, Camilla Micheletta, Angelo Del Cimmuto

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Overtaking competence mismatches and fostering career pathways congruent with the individual skills profile would significantly contribute to fighting unemployment. The aim of this paper is to examine the usefulness and efficiency of qualitative tools in supporting and improving the quality of caseworkers’ activities during the jobseekers’ profile analysis and career guidance process. The selected target groups are long-term and middle term unemployed, job seekers, young people at the end of the vocational training pathway and unemployed woman with social disadvantages. The experimentation is conducted in Italy at public employment services in 2017. In the framework of Italian labour market reform, the experimentation represents the first step to develop a customized qualitative model profiling; the final general object is to improve the public employment services quality. The experimentation tests the transferability of an OECD self-assessment competences tool in the Italian public employment services. On one hand, the first analysis results will indicate the user’s perception concerning the tool’s application and their different competence levels (literacy, numeracy, problem solving, career interest, subjective well-being and health, behavioural competencies) with reference to the specific target. On the other hand, the experimentation outcomes will show caseworkers understanding regarding the tool’s usability and efficiency for career guidance and reskilling and upskilling programs.

Keywords: career guidance, evaluation competences, reskilling pathway, unemployment

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events

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Authors: Mihai Caramihai, Dan Vasilescu

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The main research objective of the experimental bioprocess analyzed in this paper was to obtain large biomass quantities. The bioprocess is performed in 100 L Bioengineering bioreactor with 42 L cultivation medium made of peptone, meat extract and sodium chloride. The reactor was equipped with pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and agitation controllers. The operating parameters were 37 oC, 1.2 atm, 250 rpm and air flow rate of 15 L/min. The main objective of this paper is to present a case study to demonstrate that intelligent control, describing the complexity of the biological process in a qualitative and subjective manner as perceived by human operator, is an efficient control strategy for this kind of bioprocesses. In order to simulate the bioprocess evolution, an intelligent control structure, based on fuzzy logic has been designed. The specific objective is to present a fuzzy control approach, based on human expert’ rules vs. a modeling approach of the cells growth based on bioprocess experimental data. The kinetic modeling may represent only a small number of bioprocesses for overall biosystem behavior while fuzzy control system (FCS) can manipulate incomplete and uncertain information about the process assuring high control performance and provides an alternative solution to non-linear control as it is closer to the real world. Due to the high degree of non-linearity and time variance of bioprocesses, the need of control mechanism arises. BIOSIM, an original developed software package, implements such a control structure. The simulation study has showed that the fuzzy technique is quite appropriate for this non-linear, time-varying system vs. the classical control method based on a priori model.

Keywords: intelligent, control, fuzzy model, bioprocess optimization

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Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

Abstract:

Traffic calming measures are different design features or strategies used to reduce the speed of a traveling vehicle on a particular road. These calming measures are common on rural roads of Oman. Some of these measures are road speed limits, vertical deflections, horizontal deflections, and road signs. In general, vertical deflections such as rumble strips, road studs (cat’s eye), speed tables, and speed humps are widely used. In this paper, as vehicle speeding is a major cause of road traffic crashes and high fatalities in Oman, the effectiveness of existing traffic calming measures at current locations on rural roads is assessed. The study was conducted on the rural roads of Dhofar Governorate, which is located in the south of Oman. A special focus is given to the calming measures implemented on the mountain roads of Dhofar. It is shown that vertical deflection calming measures are effective in reducing vehicle speed to 20 to 40 kph, depending on the vertical deflection type and spacing. Calming measures are also proposed at locations with a high probability of traffic crashes based on the number of traffic crashes at these locations, road type, and road geometry.

Keywords: road safety, rural roads, speed, traffic calming measures, traffic crash

Procedia PDF Downloads 105