Search results for: multivariate disaggregation rainfall model

Authors: N. Guo, C. Xu, Z. C. Yang

Abstract:

In order to ensure the high reliability of an aircraft, the accurate structural dynamics analysis has become an indispensable part in the design of an aircraft structure. Therefore, the structural finite element model which can be used to accurately calculate the structural dynamics and their transfer relations is the prerequisite in structural dynamic design. A dynamic finite element model updating method is presented to correct the uncertain parameters of the finite element model of a structure using measured modal parameters. The coordinate modal assurance criterion is used to evaluate the correlation level at each coordinate over the experimental and the analytical mode shapes. Then, the weighted summation of the natural frequency residual and the coordinate modal assurance criterion residual is used as the objective function. Moreover, the hybrid pattern search (HPS) optimization technique, which synthesizes the advantages of pattern search (PS) optimization technique and genetic algorithm (GA), is introduced to solve the dynamic FE model updating problem. A numerical simulation and a model updating experiment for GARTEUR aircraft model are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the present dynamic model updating method, respectively. The updated results show that the proposed method can be successfully used to modify the incorrect parameters with good robustness.

Keywords: model updating, modal parameter, coordinate modal assurance criterion, hybrid genetic/pattern search

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Jin Sung Kim, Hoon Huh

Abstract:

The material properties of OFHC copper film was investigated with the High-Speed Material Micro Testing Machine (HSMMTM) at the high strain rates. The rate-dependent stress-strain curves from the experiment and the Johnson-Cook curve fitting showed large discrepancies as the plastic strain increases since the constitutive model implies no rate-dependent strain hardening effect. A new constitutive model was proposed in consideration of rate-dependent strain hardening effect. The strain rate hardening term in the new constitutive model consists of the strain rate sensitivity coefficients of the yield strength and strain hardening.

Keywords: rate dependent material properties, dynamic constitutive model, OFHC copper film, strain rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 480

Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

Abstract:

Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Fernando P. Silva, Valter J. S. Leite, Erivelton G. Nepomuceno

Abstract:

In this paper, a nonlinear controller design for an omnidirectional mobile is presented. The robot controller consists of an inner-loop controller and an outer-loop controller, the first is designed using state feedback (robust allocation) and the second controller is designed based on Robust Multi Inversion (RMI) approach. The objective of RMI controller is rendering the robust inversion of the dynamic, when the model is affected by uncertainties. A model nonlinear MIMO of an omni-directional robot (small-league of Robocup) is used to simulate the RMI approach. The parameters of linear and nonlinear model are varied to cause modelling uncertainties among the model and the real model (real system) generating an error in inner-loop controller signal that must be compensated by RMI controller. The simulation test results show that the RMI is capable of compensating the uncertainties and keep the system stable and controlled under uncertainties.

Keywords: robust multi inversion, omni-directional robot, robocup, nonlinear control

Procedia PDF Downloads 567

Authors: Farzad Khajavi, Farzaneh Jalilfar, Faranak Jafari, Leila Shokrani

Abstract:

Formulation of gliclazide in the form of extended-release tablet in 30 and 60 mg dosage forms was performed using hypromellose (HPMC K4M) as a retarding agent. Drug-release profiles were investigated in comparison with references Diamicron MR 30 and 60 mg tablets. The effect of size of powder particles, the amount of hypromellose in formulation, hardness of tablets, and also the effect of halving the tablets were investigated on drug release profile. A mathematical model which describes hypromellose behavior in initial times of drug release was proposed for the estimation of hypromellose content in modified-release gliclazide 60 mg tablet. This model is based on erosion of hypromellose in dissolution media. The model is applicable to describe release profiles of insoluble drugs. Therefore, by using dissolved amount of drug in initial times of dissolution and the model, the amount of hypromellose in formulation can be predictable. The model was used to predict the HPMC K4M content in modified-release gliclazide 30 mg and extended-release quetiapine 200 mg tablets.

Keywords: Gliclazide, hypromellose, drug release, modified-release tablet, mathematical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Saheb Yousefi, Kim T. Zebehazy, Parviz Sharifi Daramadi, Tahereh Najafi Fard, Kevin Murfitt

Abstract:

Context: Children with visual impairments often face challenges in their cognitive, motor, and social development. Sensory-motor and spatial perception therapies can be beneficial for these children, but many existing programs only focus on a limited set of therapies. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program for sensory- motor and spatial perception in reducing the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to determine if a rehabilitation program based on parent-child interaction can reduce the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. Methodology: This study uses a semi-experimental approach with an uneven control group design. Visually impaired children aged 10 to 14 and their parents from the Board of the Blind and Visually Impaired in Tehran Province were included in the study. The sample was divided into experimental and control groups, with a total of 30 participants. The experimental group participated in a rehabilitation program for sensory-motor and spatial perception based on parent-child interaction, while the control group did not receive this intervention. Data was collected using questionnaires on transportation issues and analyzed using multivariate and univariate mixed analysis of variance tests. Findings: The analysis of the data showed that the fear of movement was significantly improved in the experimental group compared to the control group after the intervention. Theoretical Importance: This study highlights the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program for sensory- motor and spatial perception based on parent-child interaction in reducing the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. It contributes to the existing knowledge by demonstrating the positive impact of this type of intervention on the cognitive, motor, and social development of these children. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Data was collected through the use of questionnaires administered to the children before and after the intervention. The data was analyzed using multivariate and univariate mixed analysis of variance tests to examine the effects of the rehabilitation program. Questions Addressed: This study addresses the question of whether a rehabilitation program based on parent-child interaction can reduce the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. Conclusion: The findings of this study support the effectiveness of the sensory-motor and spatial perception rehabilitation program based on parent-child interaction in reducing the fear of movement in visually impaired children. This intervention can be considered as a suitable method to enhance the fear of mobility in these children.

Keywords: vision impairment, sensory-motor rehabilitation, space perception, parent-child interaction, fear of movement.

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Yasmeen A. S. Essawy, Khaled Nassar

Abstract:

With the rapid increase of complexity in the building industry, professionals in the A/E/C industry were forced to adopt Building Information Modeling (BIM) in order to enhance the communication between the different project stakeholders throughout the project life cycle and create a semantic object-oriented building model that can support geometric-topological analysis of building elements during design and construction. This paper presents a model that extracts topological relationships and geometrical properties of building elements from an existing fully designed BIM, and maps this information into a directed acyclic Elemental Graph Data Model (EGDM). The model incorporates BIM-based search algorithms for automatic deduction of geometrical data and topological relationships for each building element type. Using graph search algorithms, such as Depth First Search (DFS) and topological sortings, all possible construction sequences can be generated and compared against production and construction rules to generate an optimized construction sequence and its associated schedule. The model is implemented in a C# platform.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), elemental graph data model (EGDM), geometric and topological data models, graph theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Masato Nishi, Tetsushi Kaburagi, Masashi Kurose, Tei Hirashima, Tetsusei Kurasiki

Abstract:

The process of thermoforming a carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP) has increased its presence in the automotive industry for its wide applicability to the mass production car. A non-isothermal forming for CFRTP can shorten its cycle time to less than 1 minute. In this paper, the textile reinforcement FE model which the authors proposed in a previous work is extended to the CFRTP model for non-isothermal forming simulation. The effect of thermoplastic is given by adding shell elements which consider thermal effect to the textile reinforcement model. By applying Reuss model to the stress calculation of thermoplastic, the proposed model can accurately predict in-plane shear behavior, which is the key deformation mode during forming, in the range of the process temperature. Using the proposed model, thermoforming simulation was conducted and the results are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic, finite element analysis, pre-impregnated textile composite, non-isothermal forming

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

Abstract:

The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

Abstract:

Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

Abstract:

The proliferation of social media platforms like Twitter has heightened the consequences of the spread of misinformation. To understand and model the spread of misinformation, in this paper, we leveraged the SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics) epidemiological model to describe the underlying process that delineates the spread of misinformation on Twitter. Compared to the other epidemiological models, this model produces broader results because it includes the additional Skeptics (Z) compartment, wherein a user may be Exposed to an item of misinformation but not engage in any reaction to it, and the additional Exposed (E) compartment, wherein the user may need some time before deciding to spread a misinformation item. We analyzed misinformation regarding the unrest in Washington, D.C. in the month of March 2020, which was propagated by the use of the #DCblackout hashtag by different users across the U.S. on Twitter. Our analysis shows that misinformation can be modeled using the concept of epidemiology. To the best of our knowledge, this research is the first to attempt to apply the SEIZ epidemiological model to the spread of a specific item of misinformation, which is a category distinct from that of rumor and hoax on online social media platforms. Applying a mathematical model can help to understand the trends and dynamics of the spread of misinformation on Twitter and ultimately help to develop techniques to quickly identify and control it.

Keywords: Black Lives Matter, epidemiological model, mathematical modeling, misinformation, SEIZ model, Twitter

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Bahago I. N., Oyewole O. E.

Abstract:

Nigeria has the second highest prevalence of intestinal worms globally, which has not declined since the 1970s, especially in rural communities. Identifying the gaps in self-care practice will pave a way for a suitable intervention. This study investigated the knowledge, perception, and practice of deworming among mothers of under-five children in rural communities of Lafia Local Government Area, Nasarawa State. This study was descriptive cross-sectional and involved 419 mothers selected by systematic sampling technique. Information was obtained using a valid interviewer-questionnaire. Knowledge, perception, and practice was measured using a 10-point scale for each variable, respectively. Scores of 0-4, >4-6, and >6 were categorised as poor, average/fair, and good, respectively, at p<0.05 level of significance. Respondents’ age was 30.3±9.2 years; 46.5% were into trading, 26.7% were unemployed, 9.3% were skilled labour, and 7.4% were farmers. On literacy, secondary school (25.5%) while 9.1% above secondary school. Many (51.1%) had 2-3 children, while 42.2% had 5 or more children. Most of the respondents (96.2%) had good knowledge of deworming, and 3.8% had fair knowledge. Using multivariate model, Mothers between the ages of 25-34 years were 20 times likely to be more knowledgeable, given they have access to health information (O.R 2.39 -164.31). Most (62.3%) had good perception scores, 33.2% had fair scores, while 4.5% had poor perception scores. Majority (66.4%) had a good deworming practice of deworming, 66.4% had good, 28.4% had fair, and 5.3% had poor practice. The test of association between Parent's literacy level, religion, and age were significantly associated with the level of knowledge of deworming. Knowledge of deworming was above average; perception and practice was good. Women of ages 25-34 years could be trained as community volunteers to propagate the right information about deworming in rural communities, especially among young women of ages 13-19 years. Preferred channels to obtaining health information identified in the study should be explored.

Keywords: deworming, mothers of under-five, intestinal worms, rural communities

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Samuel Kwaku Essien, Catherine Trask, Niels Koehncke, Brenna Bath

Abstract:

Background: Low back disorder (LBD) is the most common musculoskeletal problem among farmers, with higher prevalence than other occupations. Operators of tractors and other farm machinery such as combines or all-terrain vehicles (ATV) can have considerable cumulative exposure to whole body vibration (WBV). Although there appears to be an association between LBD and WBV, lack of prospective studies makes the relationship between LBD and WBV unclear. Purpose: This study investigates the association between WBV and LBD among Saskatchewan farmers using a prospective cohort study Methods: The Saskatchewan Farm Injury Cohort Study Phase I (2007) and II (2013) data were used. Baseline data were collected via postal questionnaire on accumulated yearly tractor, combine, and ATV use as well as several covariates to support a biopsychosocial model of LBD. Follow-up data on musculoskeletal symptoms were collected for the 6-year with sample size of 1149. Questions on ‘low back trouble’ (ache, pain, discomfort) experienced in the last 12 months answered by farmer participants as ‘yes’ or ‘no’. A GEE-modified Poisson approach was performed using SPSS 22 and SAS 9.4. Results: Twelve-month Prevalence of LBD was 59.8%. In multivariate analysis of the 6-year follow-up, LBD was associated with ATV operation and tractor operation, with a dose-response relationship for annual accumulated tractor operation. Although combine operation ≥ 61 hrs/year was related to LBD in bivariate analysis, this difference did not persist after adjustment for confounder. Age was found to be a confounder in relationship between WBV and LBD and no interactions were found. Conclusion: Longer annual tractor operation and older age are important predictors of LBD symptoms in farmers. Future research involving direct measurement can help identify appropriate prevention strategies.

Keywords: agriculture, low back disorder, low back pain, occupational health

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Masood Beheshtirad

Abstract:

Identification of regions having potential for landslide occurrence is one of the basic measures in natural resources management. Different landslide hazard mapping models are proposed based on the environmental condition and goals. In this research landslide hazard map using multiple regression model were provided and applicability of this model is investigated in Baghdasht watershed. Dependent variable is landslide inventory map and independent variables consist of information layers as Geology, slope, aspect, distance from river, distance from road, fault and land use. For doing this, existing landslides have been identified and an inventory map made. The landslide hazard map is based on the multiple regression provided. The level of similarity potential hazard classes and figures of this model were compared with the landslide inventory map in the SPSS environments. Results of research showed that there is a significant correlation between the potential hazard classes and figures with area of the landslides. The multiple regression model is suitable for application in the Baghdasht Watershed.

Keywords: landslide, mapping, multiple model, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Jamal Choudhry, Roland Larsson, Andreas Almqvist

Abstract:

A multi-scale flash temperature model has been developed and validated against existing work. The core strength of the proposed model is that it can be adapted to predict flash contact temperatures occurring in various types of sliding systems. In this paper, it is used to investigate how different surface roughness parameters affect the flash temperatures. The results show that for decreasing Hurst exponents as well as increasing values of the high-frequency cut-off, the maximum flash temperature increases. It was also shown that the effect of surface roughness does not influence the average interface temperature. The model predictions were validated against data from an experiment conducted in a pin-on-disc machine. This also showed the importance of including a wear model when simulating flash temperature development in a sliding system.

Keywords: multiscale, pin-on-disc, finite element method, flash temperature, surface roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: A. Daftari, W. Kudla

Abstract:

Liquefaction is a phenomenon in which the strength and stiffness of a soil is reduced by earthquake shaking or other rapid cyclic loading. Liquefaction and related phenomena have been responsible for huge amounts of damage in historical earthquakes around the world. Modelling of soil behaviour is the main step in soil liquefaction prediction process. Nowadays, several constitutive models for sand have been presented. Nevertheless, only some of them can satisfy this mechanism. One of the most useful models in this term is UBCSAND model. In this research, the capability of this model is considered by using PLAXIS software. The real data of superstition hills earthquake 1987 in the Imperial Valley was used. The results of the simulation have shown resembling trend of the UBC3D-PLM model.

Keywords: liquefaction, plaxis, pore-water pressure, UBC3D-PLM

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Hamad M. Alhajeri

Abstract:

Swirling chamber is a promising cooling method for heavily thermally loaded parts like turbine blades due to the additional circumferential velocity and therefore improved turbulent mixing of the fluid. This paper investigates numerically the effect of turbulence model on the heat convection of the swirling chamber. Grid independence analysis is conducted to obtain the proper grid dimension. The work validated with experimental data available in the literature. Flow analysis using improved delayed detached eddy simulation turbulence model and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes k-ɛ turbulence model is carried. The flow characteristic near the exit is reformed when improved delayed detached eddy simulation model used.

Keywords: gas turbine, Nusselt number, flow characteristics, heat transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Raphael Naryongo, Philip Ngare, Anthony Waititu

Abstract:

This paper deals with numerical simulation of Wishart processes for a single asset risky pricing model whose volatility is described by Wishart affine diffusion processes. The multi-factor specification of volatility will make the model more flexible enough to fit the stock market data for short or long maturities for better returns. The Wishart process is a stochastic process which is a positive semi-definite matrix-valued generalization of the square root process. The aim of the study is to model the log asset stock returns under the double Wishart stochastic volatility model. The solution of the log-asset return dynamics for Bi-Wishart processes will be obtained through Euler-Maruyama discretization schemes. The numerical results on the asset returns are compared to the existing models returns such as Heston stochastic volatility model and double Heston stochastic volatility model

Keywords: euler schemes, log-asset return, infinitesimal generator, wishart diffusion affine processes

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: H. Z. Ulukan, E. Demircioğlu, M. Erol Genevois

Abstract:

The scope of this paper and the aim of proposed model were to apply monetary Input –Output (I-O) analysis to point out the importance of reusing know-how and other requirements in order to reduce the production costs in a manufacturing process for a laptop computer. I-O approach using the monetary input-output model is employed to demonstrate the impacts of different factors in a manufacturing process. A sensitivity analysis showing the correlation between these different factors is also presented. It is expected that the recommended model would have an advantageous effect in the cost minimization process.

Keywords: input-output analysis, monetary input-output model, manufacturing process, laptop computer

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: J. C. Hoyos, J. Zambrano Nájera

Abstract:

Increasing urbanization has led to changes in the natural dynamics of watersheds, causing problems such as increases in volumes of runoff, peak flow rates, and flow rates so that the risk of storm flooding increases. Sewerage networks designed 30 – 40 years ago don’t account for these increases in flow volumes and velocities. Besides, Andean cities with high slopes worsen the problem because velocities are even higher not allowing sewerage network work and causing cities less resilient to landscape changes and climatic change. In Latin America, especially Colombia, this is a major problem because urban population at late XX century was more than 70% is in urban areas increasing approximately in 790% in 1940-1990 period. Thus, it becomes very important to study how changes in hydrological behavior affect hydraulic capacity of sewerage networks in Andean Urban Watersheds. This research aims to determine the impact of urbanization in high-sloped urban watersheds in its hydrology. To this end it will be used as study area experimental urban watershed named Palogrande-San Luis watershed, located in the city of Manizales, Colombia. Manizales is a city in central western Colombia, located in Colombian Central Mountain Range (part of Los Andes Mountains) with an abrupt topography (average altitude is 2.153 m). The climate in Manizales is quite uniform, but due to its high altitude it presents high precipitations (1.545 mm/year average) with high humidity (83% average). Behavior of the current sewerage network will be reviewed by the hydraulic model SWMM (Storm Water Management Model). Based on SWMM the hydrological response of urban watershed selected will be evaluated under the design storm with different frequencies in the region, such as drainage effect and water-logging, overland flow on roads, etc. Cartographic information was obtained from a Geographic Information System (GIS) thematic maps of the Institute of Environmental Studies of the Universidad Nacional de Colombia and the utility Aguas de Manizales S.A. Rainfall and streamflow data is obtained from 4 rain gages and 1 stream gages. This information will allow determining critical issues on drainage systems design in urban watershed with very high slopes, and which practices will be discarded o recommended.

Keywords: land cover changes, storm sewer system, urban hydrology, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a comparative assessment of Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for two-level three phase (2L-3P) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). VSI with associated system is subjected to both control techniques and the results are compared. Matlab/Simulink was used to model, simulate and validate the control schemes. Findings of this study show that MPC is superior to SVPWM in terms of total harmonic distortion (THD) and implementation.

Keywords: voltage source inverter, space vector pulse width modulation, model predictive control, comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 500

Authors: Salman Mohamadi, Seyed Mohammad Ali Tayaranian Hosseini, Hamidreza Amindavar

Abstract:

In this paper, we provide a procedure to analyze and model EEG (electroencephalogram) signal as a time series using ARIMA-GARCH to predict an epileptic attack. The heteroskedasticity of EEG signal is examined through the ARCH or GARCH, (Autore- gressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) test. The best ARIMA-GARCH model in AIC sense is utilized to measure the volatility of the EEG from epileptic canine subjects, to forecast the future values of EEG. ARIMA-only model can perform prediction, but the ARCH or GARCH model acting on the residuals of ARIMA attains a con- siderable improved forecast horizon. First, we estimate the best ARIMA model, then different orders of ARCH and GARCH modelings are surveyed to determine the best heteroskedastic model of the residuals of the mentioned ARIMA. Using the simulated conditional variance of selected ARCH or GARCH model, we suggest the procedure to predict the oncoming seizures. The results indicate that GARCH modeling determines the dynamic changes of variance well before the onset of seizure. It can be inferred that the prediction capability comes from the ability of the combined ARIMA-GARCH modeling to cover the heteroskedastic nature of EEG signal changes.

Keywords: epileptic seizure prediction , ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH modeling, heteroskedasticity, EEG

Procedia PDF Downloads 400

Authors: Saima Akbar, Tahseen Ullah Khan

Abstract:

The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resource management and flood risk mitigation. This research was conducted to address the effects of climate change on flood incidents of Pakistan and find out gaps in existing policies to reducing the environmental aspects on floods and effects of global warming. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. The methodology integrates projected changes in monsoon patterns (since last 20 years and overall change in rainfall pattern since 1901 to 2015 from Pakistan Metrological Department), glacier melting, decreasing dam capacity and lacks in existing policies by using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats) model in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance. Results indicate the impacts of climate change are significant, but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions in Vision 2025 which is our shared destination to progress, ultimate aspiration to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. The conclusion of this research was to adapt sustainable measures to reduce flood impacts and make policies as neighboring countries are adapting for their sustainability.

Keywords: climatic factors, monsoon, Pakistan, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Jun Tian, Yu Yang, Liping Zhang, Qianhua Kan

Abstract:

Experimental results show that SA 508-3 steel exhibits temperature dependent cyclic softening characteristic and obvious ratcheting behaviors, and dynamic strain age was observed at temperature range of 200 ºC to 350 ºC. Based on these observations, a temperature dependent cyclic plastic constitutive model was proposed by introducing the nonlinear cyclic softening and kinematic hardening rules, and the dynamic strain age was also considered into the constitutive model. Comparisons between experiments and simulations were carried out to validate the proposed model at elevated temperature.

Keywords: constitutive model, elevated temperature, ratcheting, SA 508-3

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Masica Jordan Alston, Angela N. Bullock, Angela S. Henderson, Stephanie Strianse, Sade Dunn, Joseph Hackett, Alaysia Black Hackett, Marcus Mason

Abstract:

The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief was created in 2018. The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief utilizes historic models of grief stage theories. The innovative model is additionally unique due to its focus on cultural responsiveness. The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief helps to train practitioners who work with clients dealing with grief and loss. This paper assists in introducing the world to this innovative model and exploring how this model positively impacted a convenience sample of 140 practitioners and individuals experiencing grief and loss. Respondents participated in Webinars provided by the National Grief and Loss Center of America (NGLCA). Participants in this cross-sectional research design study completed one of three Grief and Loss Surveys created by the Grief and Loss Centers of America. Data analysis for this study was conducted via SPSS and Survey Hero to examine survey results for respondents. Results indicate that the Energy Model of Cumulative Grief was an effective resource for participants in addressing grief and loss. The majority of participants found the Webinars to be helpful and a conduit to providing them with higher levels of hope. The findings suggest that using The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief is effective in providing culturally responsive grief and loss resources to practitioners and clients. There are far reaching implications with the use of technology to provide hope to those suffering from grief and loss worldwide through The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief.

Keywords: grief, loss, grief energy, grieving brain

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Marzieh Talebzadeh Shoushtari

Abstract:

The present study aimed to determine the effectiveness of Metaphor therapy on depression among female students. The sample included 60 female students with depression symptoms selected by simple sampling and randomly divided into two equal groups (experimental and control groups). Beck Depression Inventory was used to measure the variables. This was an experimental study with a pre-test/post-test design with control group. Eight metaphor therapy sessions were held for the experimental group. A post-test was administered to both groups. Data were analyzed using multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA). Results showed that the Metaphor therapy decreased depression in the experimental group compared to the control group.

Keywords: metaphor therapy, depression, female, students

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Shayem Saleh ALresheedi, Lu Song Feng, Abdulaziz Abdulwahab M. Fatani

Abstract:

Cloud computing is an emerging concept in the technological sphere. Its development enables many applications to avail information online and on demand. It is becoming an essential element for businesses due to its ability to diminish the costs of IT infrastructure and is being adopted in Saudi Arabia. However, there exist many factors that affect its adoption. Several researchers in the field have ignored the study of the TAM model for identifying the relevant factors and their impact for adopting of cloud computing. This study focuses on evaluating the acceptability of cloud computing and analyzing its impacting factors using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) of technology adoption in Saudi Arabia. It suggests a model to examine the influential factors of the TAM model along with external factors of technical support in adapting the cloud computing. The proposed model has been tested through the use of multiple hypotheses based on calculation tools and collected data from customers through questionnaires. The findings of the study prove that the TAM model along with external factors can be applied in measuring the expected adoption of cloud computing. The study presents an investigation of influential factors and further recommendation in adopting cloud computing in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: cloud computing, acceptability, adoption, determinants

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Austyn Snowden

Abstract:

Aim: To examine the construct validity of the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire Short form. Background: Emotional intelligence involves the identification and regulation of our own emotions and the emotions of others. It is therefore a potentially useful construct in the investigation of recruitment and retention in nursing and many questionnaires have been constructed to measure it. Design: Secondary analysis of existing dataset of responses to TEIQue-SF using concurrent application of Rasch analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Method: First year undergraduate nursing and computing students completed Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire-Short Form. Responses were analysed by synthesising results of Rasch analysis and confirmatory factor analysis.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, rasch analysis, factor analysis, nurse recruiters

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Royia Soliman, Salma ElAnsary, Akram Amin Abdellatif, Florian Holzapfel

Abstract:

Model-Based Safety Analysis (MBSA) is an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. The model can also be extended by the failure modes of the system components. There are two famous approaches for the addition of fault behaviors to system models. The first one is to enclose the failure into the system design directly. The second approach is to develop a fault model separately from the system model, thus combining both independent models for safety analysis. This paper introduces a hybrid approach of MBSA. The approach tries to use informal abstracted models to investigate failure behaviors. The approach will combine various concepts such as directed graph traversal, event lists and Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSP). The approach is implemented using an Object Oriented programming language. The components are abstracted to its failure logic and relationships of connected components. The implemented approach is tested on various flight control systems, including electrical and multi-domain examples. The various tests are analyzed, and a comparison to different approaches is represented.

Keywords: flight control systems, model based safety analysis, safety assessment analysis, system modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Hasan Vural

Abstract:

Turkey is a favorable country to produce a great variety of agricultural products because of her different geographic and climatic conditions which have been used to divide the country into four main and seven sub regions. This classification into seven regions traditionally has been used in order to data collection and publication especially related with agricultural production. Afterwards, nine agricultural regions were considered. Recently, the governmental body which is responsible of data collection and dissemination (Turkish Institute of Statistics-TIS) has used 12 classes which include 11 sub regions and Istanbul province. This study aims to evaluate these classification efforts based on the acreage of ten main crops in a ten years time period (1996-2005). The panel data grouped in 11 subregions has been evaluated by cluster and multivariate statistical methods. It was concluded that from the agricultural production point of view, it will be rather meaningful to consider three main and eight sub-agricultural regions throughout the country.

Keywords: agricultural region, factorial analysis, cluster analysis,

Procedia PDF Downloads 405