Search results for: bias correction

Authors: Dimitrios Kafetzopoulos

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Nowadays, companies are more concerned with adopting their own strategies for increased efficiency and sustainability. Dynamic environments are fertile fields for developing operational changes. For this purpose, organizations need to implement an advanced management philosophy that boosts changes to companies’ operation. Changes refer to new applications of knowledge, ideas, methods, and skills that can generate unique capabilities and leverage an organization’s competitiveness. So, in order to survive and compete in the global and niche markets, companies should incorporate the adoption of operational changes into their strategy with regard to their products and their processes. Creating the appropriate culture for changes in terms of products and processes helps companies to gain a sustainable competitive advantage in the market. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of both incremental and radical changes into operations of a company, taking into consideration not only product changes but also process changes, and continues by measuring the impact of these two types of changes on business efficiency and sustainability of Greek manufacturing companies. The above discussion leads to the following hypotheses: H1: Radical operational changes have a positive impact on firm efficiency. H2: Incremental operational changes have a positive impact on firm efficiency. H3: Radical operational changes have a positive impact on firm sustainability. H4: Incremental operational changes have a positive impact on firm sustainability. In order to achieve the objectives of the present study, a research study was carried out in Greek manufacturing firms. A total of 380 valid questionnaires were received while a seven-point Likert scale was used to measure all the questionnaire items of the constructs (radical changes, incremental changes, efficiency and sustainability). The constructs of radical and incremental operational changes, each one as one variable, has been subdivided into product and process changes. Non-response bias, common method variance, multicollinearity, multivariate normal distribution and outliers have been checked. Moreover, the unidimensionality, reliability and validity of the latent factors were assessed. Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis were applied to check the factorial structure of the constructs and the factor loadings of the items. In order to test the research hypotheses, the SEM technique was applied (maximum likelihood method). The goodness of fit of the basic structural model indicates an acceptable fit of the proposed model. According to the present study findings, radical operational changes and incremental operational changes significantly influence both efficiency and sustainability of Greek manufacturing firms. However, it is in the dimension of radical operational changes, meaning those in process and product, that the most significant contributors to firm efficiency are to be found, while its influence on sustainability is low albeit statistically significant. On the contrary, incremental operational changes influence sustainability more than firms’ efficiency. From the above, it is apparent that the embodiment of the concept of the changes into the products and processes operational practices of a firm has direct and positive consequences for what it achieves from efficiency and sustainability perspective.

Keywords: incremental operational changes, radical operational changes, efficiency, sustainability

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Authors: Shaukat Ali Shahee, Usha Ananthakumar

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A data set exhibits class imbalance problem when one class has very few examples compared to the other class, and this is also referred to as between class imbalance. The traditional classifiers fail to classify the minority class examples correctly due to its bias towards the majority class. Apart from between-class imbalance, imbalance within classes where classes are composed of a different number of sub-clusters with these sub-clusters containing different number of examples also deteriorates the performance of the classifier. Previously, many methods have been proposed for handling imbalanced dataset problem. These methods can be classified into four categories: data preprocessing, algorithmic based, cost-based methods and ensemble of classifier. Data preprocessing techniques have shown great potential as they attempt to improve data distribution rather than the classifier. Data preprocessing technique handles class imbalance either by increasing the minority class examples or by decreasing the majority class examples. Decreasing the majority class examples lead to loss of information and also when minority class has an absolute rarity, removing the majority class examples is generally not recommended. Existing methods available for handling class imbalance do not address both between-class imbalance and within-class imbalance simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a method that handles between class imbalance and within class imbalance simultaneously for binary classification problem. Removing between class imbalance and within class imbalance simultaneously eliminates the biases of the classifier towards bigger sub-clusters by minimizing the error domination of bigger sub-clusters in total error. The proposed method uses model-based clustering to find the presence of sub-clusters or sub-concepts in the dataset. The number of examples oversampled among the sub-clusters is determined based on the complexity of sub-clusters. The method also takes into consideration the scatter of the data in the feature space and also adaptively copes up with unseen test data using Lowner-John ellipsoid for increasing the accuracy of the classifier. In this study, neural network is being used as this is one such classifier where the total error is minimized and removing the between-class imbalance and within class imbalance simultaneously help the classifier in giving equal weight to all the sub-clusters irrespective of the classes. The proposed method is validated on 9 publicly available data sets and compared with three existing oversampling techniques that rely on the spatial location of minority class examples in the euclidean feature space. The experimental results show the proposed method to be statistically significantly superior to other methods in terms of various accuracy measures. Thus the proposed method can serve as a good alternative to handle various problem domains like credit scoring, customer churn prediction, financial distress, etc., that typically involve imbalanced data sets.

Keywords: classification, imbalanced dataset, Lowner-John ellipsoid, model based clustering, oversampling

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Authors: Natalie Tyldesley-Marshall, Janette Parr, Anna Brown, Yen-Fu Chen, Amy Grove

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It is widely recognised in policy and research that the provision of services for children and young people (CYP) with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) is enhanced when health and social care, and education services collaborate and interact effectively. In the UK, there have been significant changes to policy and provisions which support and improve collaboration. However, professionals responsible for implementing these changes face multiple challenges, including a lack of specific implementation guidance or framework to illustrate how effective multi-agency working could or should work. This systematic review will identify the key components of effective multi-agency working in services for CYP with SEND; and the most effective forms of partnership working in this setting. The review highlights interventions that lead to service improvements; and the conditions in the local area that support and encourage success. A protocol was written and registered with PROSPERO registration: CRD42022352194. Searches were conducted on several health, care, education, and applied social science databases from the year 2012 onwards. Citation chaining has been undertaken, as well as broader grey literature searching to enrich the findings. Qualitative, quantitative, mixed methods studies and systematic reviews were included, assessed independently, and critically appraised or assessed for risk of bias using appropriate tools based on study design. Data were extracted in NVivo software and checked by a more experienced researcher. A convergent segregated approach to synthesis and integration was used in which the quantitative and qualitative data were synthesised independently and then integrated using a joint display integration matrix. Findings demonstrate the key ingredients for effective partnership working for services delivering SEND. Interventions deemed effective are described, and lessons learned across interventions are summarised. Results will be of interest to educators and health and social care professionals that provide services to those with SEND. These will also be used to develop policy recommendations for how UK healthcare, social care, and education services for CYP with SEND aged 0-25 can most effectively collaborate and achieve service improvement. The review will also identify any gaps in the literature to recommend areas for future research. Funding for this review was provided by the Department for Education.

Keywords: collaboration, joint commissioning, service delivery, service improvement

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Authors: Qian Yi Ooi

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At present, airfoil parameters are still designed and optimized according to the scale of conventional aircraft, and there are still some slight deviations in terms of scale differences. However, insufficient parameters or poor surface mesh quality is likely to occur if these small deviations are embedded in a future civil aircraft with a size that is quite different from conventional aircraft, such as a blended-wing-body (BWB) aircraft with future potential, resulting in large deviations in geometric similarity in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. To avoid this situation, the study on the CFD calculation on the geometric similarity of airfoil parameters and the quality of the surface mesh is conducted to obtain the ability of different parameterization methods applied on different airfoil scales. The research objects are three airfoil scales, including the wing root and wingtip of conventional civil aircraft and the wing root of the giant hybrid wing, used by three parameterization methods to compare the calculation differences between different sizes of airfoils. In this study, the constants including NACA 0012, a Reynolds number of 10 million, an angle of attack of zero, a C-grid for meshing, and the k-epsilon (k-ε) turbulence model are used. The experimental variables include three airfoil parameterization methods: point cloud method, B-spline curve method, and class function/shape function transformation (CST) method. The airfoil dimensions are set to 3.98 meters, 17.67 meters, and 48 meters, respectively. In addition, this study also uses different numbers of edge meshing and the same bias factor in the CFD simulation. Studies have shown that with the change of airfoil scales, different parameterization methods, the number of control points, and the meshing number of divisions should be used to improve the accuracy of the aerodynamic performance of the wing. When the airfoil ratio increases, the most basic point cloud parameterization method will require more and larger data to support the accuracy of the airfoil’s aerodynamic performance, which will face the severe test of insufficient computer capacity. On the other hand, when using the B-spline curve method, average number of control points and meshing number of divisions should be set appropriately to obtain higher accuracy; however, the quantitative balance cannot be directly defined, but the decisions should be made repeatedly by adding and subtracting. Lastly, when using the CST method, it is found that limited control points are enough to accurately parameterize the larger-sized wing; a higher degree of accuracy and stability can be obtained by using a lower-performance computer.

Keywords: airfoil, computational fluid dynamics, geometric similarity, surface mesh quality

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Authors: John Christian Lequiron, Gerry Bagtasa, Olivia Cabrera, Leoncio Amadore, Tolentino Moya

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Changes in air surface temperature play an important role in the Philippine’s economy, industry, health, and food production. While increasing global mean temperature in the recent several decades has prompted a number of climate change and variability studies in the Philippines, most studies still focus on rainfall and tropical cyclones. This study aims to investigate the trend and variability of observed air surface temperature and determine its major influencing factor/s in the Philippines. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to monthly mean temperature of 17 synoptic stations covering 56 years from 1960 to 2015 and a mean change of 0.58 °C or a positive trend of 0.0105 °C/year (p < 0.05) was found. In addition, wavelet decomposition was used to determine the frequency of temperature variability show a 12-month, 30-80-month and more than 120-month cycles. This indicates strong annual variations, interannual variations that coincide with ENSO events, and interdecadal variations that are attributed to PDO and CO2 concentrations. Air surface temperature was also correlated with smoothed sunspot number and galactic cosmic rays, the results show a low to no effect. The influence of ENSO teleconnection on temperature, wind pattern, cloud cover, and outgoing longwave radiation on different ENSO phases had significant effects on regional temperature variability. Particularly, an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow east of the Philippines during the peak and decay phase of El Niño (La Niña) events leads to the advection of warm southeasterly (cold northeasterly) air mass over the country. Furthermore, an apparent increasing cloud cover trend is observed over the West Philippine Sea including portions of the Philippines, and this is believed to lessen the effect of the increasing air surface temperature. However, relative humidity was also found to be increasing especially on the central part of the country, which results in a high positive trend of heat index, exacerbating the effects on human discomfort. Finally, an assessment of gridded temperature datasets was done to look at the viability of using three high-resolution datasets in future climate analysis and model calibration and verification. Several error statistics (i.e. Pearson correlation, Bias, MAE, and RMSE) were used for this validation. Results show that gridded temperature datasets generally follows the observed surface temperature change and anomalies. In addition, it is more representative of regional temperature rather than a substitute to station-observed air temperature.

Keywords: air surface temperature, carbon dioxide, ENSO, galactic cosmic rays, smoothed sunspot number

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Authors: Eitan Elaad, Yeela Gal-Gonen

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Two studies examined gender differences in lying when the truth-telling bias prevailed and when inspiring lying and distrust. The first study used 156 participants from the community (78 pairs). First, participants completed the Narcissistic Personality Inventory, the Lie- and Truth Ability Assessment Scale (LTAAS), and the Rational-Experiential Inventory. Then, they participated in a deception game where they performed as senders and receivers of true and false communications. Their goal was to retain as many points as possible according to a payoff matrix that specified the reward they would gain for any possible outcome. Results indicated that males in the sender position lied more and were more successful tellers of lies and truths than females. On the other hand, males, as receivers, trusted less than females but were not better at detecting lies and truths. We explained the results by a. Male's high perceived lie-telling ability. We observed that confidence in telling lies guided participants to increase their use of lies. Male's lie-telling confidence corresponded to earlier accounts that showed a consistent association between high self-assessed lying ability, reports of frequent lying, and predictions of actual lying in experimental settings; b. Male's narcissistic features. Earlier accounts described positive relations between narcissism and reported lying or unethical behavior in everyday life situations. Predictions about the association between narcissism and frequent lying received support in the present study. Furthermore, males scored higher than females on the narcissism scale; and c. Male's experiential thinking style. We observed that males scored higher than females on the experiential thinking style scale. We further hypothesized that the experiential thinking style predicts frequent lying in the deception game. Results confirmed the hypothesis. The second study used one hundred volunteers (40 females) who underwent the same procedure. However, the payoff matrix encouraged lying and distrust. Results showed that male participants lied more than females. We found no gender differences in trust. Males and females did not differ in their success of telling and detecting lies and truths. Participants also completed the LTAAS questionnaire. Males assessed their lie-telling ability higher than females, but the ability assessment did not predict lying frequency. A final note. The present design is limited to low stakes. Participants knew that they were participating in a game, and they would not experience any consequences from their deception in the game. Therefore, we advise caution when applying the present results to lying under high stakes.

Keywords: gender, lying, detection of deception, information processing style, self-assessed lying ability

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Authors: Fabienne Fel, Eric Griette

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Reshoring, whether concerning back-reshoring or near-reshoring, is a quite recent phenomenon. Despite the economic and political interest of this topic, academic research questioning determinants of reshoring remains rare. Our paper aims at contributing to fill this gap. In order to better understand the reasons for reshoring, we conducted a study among 280 French firms during spring 2016, three-quarters of which sourced, or source, in China. 105 firms in the sample have reshored all or part of their Chinese production or supply in recent years, and we aimed to establish a typology of the motives that drove them to this decision. We asked our respondents about the history of their Chinese supplies, their current reshoring strategies, and their motivations. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 22 and SPAD 8. Our results show that change in commercial and financial terms with China is the first motive explaining the current reshoring movement from this country (it applies to 54% of our respondents). A change in corporate strategy is the second motive (30% of our respondents); the reshoring decision follows a change in companies’ strategies (upgrading, implementation of a CSR policy, or a 'lean management' strategy). The third motive (14% of our sample) is a mere correction of the initial offshoring decision, considered as a mistake (under-estimation of hidden costs, non-quality and non-responsiveness problems). Some authors emphasize that developing a short supply chain, involving geographic proximity between design and production, gives a competitive advantage to companies wishing to offer innovative products. Admittedly 40% of our respondents indicate that this motive could have played a part in their decision to reshore, but this reason was not enough for any of them and is not an intrinsic motive leading to leaving Chinese suppliers. Having questioned our respondents about the importance given to various problems leading them to reshore, we then performed a Principal Components Analysis (PCA), associated with an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC), based on Ward criterion, so as to point out more specific motivations. Three main classes of companies should be distinguished: -The 'Cost Killers' (23% of the sample), which reshore their supplies from China only because of higher procurement costs and so as to find lower costs elsewhere. -The 'Realists' (50% of the sample), giving equal weight or importance to increasing procurement costs in China and to the quality of their supplies (to a large extend). Companies being part of this class tend to take advantage of this changing environment to change their procurement strategy, seeking suppliers offering better quality and responsiveness. - The 'Voluntarists' (26% of the sample), which choose to reshore their Chinese supplies regardless of higher Chinese costs, to obtain better quality and greater responsiveness. We emphasize that if the main driver for reshoring from China is indeed higher local costs, it is should not be regarded as an exclusive motivation; 77% of the companies in the sample, are also seeking, sometimes exclusively, more reactive suppliers, liable to quality, respect for the environment and intellectual property.

Keywords: China, procurement, reshoring, strategy, supplies

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Authors: Krupali Mukeshkumar, Jinesh Shah

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Background: Bilateral Sagittal Split Osteotomy (BSSO), used for the correction of mandibular deformities, is a common oral and maxillofacial surgical procedure. Inferior alveolar nerve dysfunction is commonly reported post-operatively by patients as paresthesia or anesthesia. The current literature lacks a consensus on the incidence of inferior alveolar nerve dysfunction as patients are not routinely assessed pre and post-operatively with an objective assessment. The range of incidence varies from 9% to 85% of patients, with some authors arguing that 100% of patients experience nerve dysfunction immediately post-surgery. Systematic reviews have shown a difference between incidence rates at different follow-up periods using objective and subjective methods. Aim: To identify the incidence of inferior alveolar nerve dysfunction following BSSO. Gold standard: Nerve dysfunction incidence rates similar or lower than current literature of 83% day one post-operatively and 18.4% at one year follow up. Setting: A retrospective cross-sectional audit of patients treated between 2017-2019 at the Royal Stoke University Hospital, Maxillofacial and Orthodontic departments. Sample: All patients who underwent a BSSO (with or without le fort one osteotomy) between 2017–2019 were identified from the database. Patients with pre-existing neurosensory disturbance, those who had a genioplasty at the same time and those with no follow-up were excluded. The sample consisted of 121 patients, 37 males and 84 females between the ages of 17-50 years at the time of surgery. Methods: Clinical records of 121 cases were reviewed to assess the age, sex, type of mandibular osteotomy, status of the nerve during the surgical procedure, type of bony split and incidence of nerve dysfunction at follow-up appointments. The surgical procedure was carried out by three Maxillo-facial surgeons and follow-up appointments were carried out in the Orthodontic and Oral and Maxillo-facial departments. Results: 120 patients were treated to correct the mandibular facial deformity and 1 patient was treated for sleep apnoea. Seventeen patients had a mandibular setback and 104 patients had mandibular advancement. 68 patients reported inferior alveolar nerve dysfunction at one week following their surgery. Seventy-six patients had temporary paresthesia present between 2 weeks and 12 months post-surgery. 13 patients had persistent nerve dysfunction at 12 months, of which 1 had a bad bony split during the BSSO. The incidence of nerve dysfunction postoperatively was 6.6% after 1 day, 56.1% at 1 week, 62.8% at 2 weeks, 59.5% between 3-6 weeks, 43.0% between 8-16 weeks and 10.7% at 1 year. Conclusions: The results of this audit show a similar incidence rate to the research gold standard at the one-year follow-up. Future Recommendations: No changes to surgical procedure or technique are indicated, but a need for improved documentation and a standardized approach for assessment of post-operative nerve dysfunction would be beneficial.

Keywords: bilateral sagittal split osteotomy, inferior alveolar nerve, mandible, nerve dysfunction

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Authors: Burak Oksuzoglu, Savas Yildirim, Ferhat Kutlu

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Opinion mining (OM) is one of the natural language processing (NLP) problems to determine the polarity of opinions, mostly represented on a positive-neutral-negative axis. The data for OM is usually collected from various social media platforms. In an era where social media has considerable control over companies’ futures, it’s worth understanding social media and taking actions accordingly. OM comes to the fore here as the scale of the discussion about companies increases, and it becomes unfeasible to gauge opinion on individual levels. Thus, the companies opt to automize this process by applying machine learning (ML) approaches to their data. For the last two decades, OM or sentiment analysis (SA) has been mainly performed by applying ML classification algorithms such as support vector machines (SVM) and Naïve Bayes to a bag of n-gram representations of textual data. With the advent of deep learning and its apparent success in NLP, traditional methods have become obsolete. Transfer learning paradigm that has been commonly used in computer vision (CV) problems started to shape NLP approaches and language models (LM) lately. This gave a sudden rise to the usage of the pretrained language model (PTM), which contains language representations that are obtained by training it on the large datasets using self-supervised learning objectives. The PTMs are further fine-tuned by a specialized downstream task dataset to produce efficient models for various NLP tasks such as OM, NER (Named-Entity Recognition), Question Answering (QA), and so forth. In this study, the traditional and modern NLP approaches have been evaluated for OM by using a sizable corpus belonging to a large private company containing about 76,000 comments in Turkish: SVM with a bag of n-grams, and two chosen pre-trained models, multilingual universal sentence encoder (MUSE) and bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT). The MUSE model is a multilingual model that supports 16 languages, including Turkish, and it is based on convolutional neural networks. The BERT is a monolingual model in our case and transformers-based neural networks. It uses a masked language model and next sentence prediction tasks that allow the bidirectional training of the transformers. During the training phase of the architecture, pre-processing operations such as morphological parsing, stemming, and spelling correction was not used since the experiments showed that their contribution to the model performance was found insignificant even though Turkish is a highly agglutinative and inflective language. The results show that usage of deep learning methods with pre-trained models and fine-tuning achieve about 11% improvement over SVM for OM. The BERT model achieved around 94% prediction accuracy while the MUSE model achieved around 88% and SVM did around 83%. The MUSE multilingual model shows better results than SVM, but it still performs worse than the monolingual BERT model.

Keywords: BERT, MUSE, opinion mining, pretrained language model, SVM, Turkish

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Authors: Kamaljeet Kaur, Vinod Kumari, Jatesh Kathpalia, Bas Kaur

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A gender bias towards girl child is pervasive across the world. It is seen in all the strata of the society and manifests in various forms. However nature and extent of these inequalities are not uniform. Generally these inequalities are more prevalent in patriarchal society. Despite emerging and increasing opportunities for women, there are still inequalities between men and women in each and every sphere like education, health, economy, polity and social sphere. Patriarchal ideology as a cultural norm enforces gender construction which is oriented toward hierarchical relations between the sexes and neglect of women in Indian society. Discrimination to girls may also vary by their age and be restricted to the birth order and sex composition of her elder surviving siblings. The present study was conducted to know the gender discrimination among rural children in India. The respondents were selected from three generations as per AICRP age group viz, 18-30 years (3rd generation), 31-60 years (2nd generation) and above 60 years (1st generation). A total sample size was 600 respondents from different villages of two districts of Haryana state comprising of half males and half females. Data were collected using personal interview schedule and analysed by SPSS software. Among the total births 46.35 per cent were girl child and 53.64 % were male child. Dropout rate was more in female children as compared to male children i.e. near about one third (31.09%) female children dropped school followed by 21.17 % male children. It was quite surprising that near about two-third (61.16%) female children and more than half (59.22%) of the male children dropped school. Cooking was mainly performed by adult female with overall mean scores 2.0 and ranked first which was followed by female child (1.7 mean scores) clearly indicating that cooking was the activity performed mainly by females while activity related to purchase of fruits and vegetable, cereals and pulses was mainly done by adult male. First preference was given to male child for serving of costly and special food. Regarding professional aspiration of children of the respondents’ families, it was observed that 20.10% of the male children wanted to become engineer, whereas only 3.89 % female children wanted to become engineer. Ratio of male children was high in both generations irrespective of the districts. School dropouts were more in case of female in both the 1st and 2 nd generations. The main reasons of school dropout were lack of interest, lack of resources and early marriage in both the generations. Female enrolment was more in faculty of arts, whereas in case of male percentage it was more in faculty of non-medical and medical which showed that female children were getting traditional type of education. It is suggested to provide equal opportunities to girls and boys in home as well as outside the home for smooth functioning of society.

Keywords: gender biasness, male child, female child, education, home

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Authors: Samuel I. Becher, Tal Z. Zarsky

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The digital world becomes part of our DNA now. The way e-commerce, human behavior, and law interact and affect one another is rapidly and significantly changing. Among others things, the internet equips consumers with a variety of platforms to share information in a volume we could not imagine before. As part of this development, online information flows allow consumers to learn about businesses and their contracts in an efficient and quick manner. Consumers can become informed by the impressions that other, experienced consumers share and spread. In other words, consumers may familiarize themselves with the contents of contracts through the experiences that other consumers had. Online and offline, the relationship between consumers and businesses are most frequently governed by consumer standard form contracts. For decades, such contracts are assumed to be one-sided and biased against consumers. Consumer Law seeks to alleviate this bias and empower consumers. Legislatures, consumer organizations, scholars, and judges are constantly looking for clever ways to protect consumers from unscrupulous firms and unfair behaviors. While consumers-businesses relationships are theoretically administered by standardized contracts, firms do not always follow these contracts in practice. At times, there is a significant disparity between what the written contract stipulates and what consumers experience de facto. That is, there is a crucial gap (“the Gap”) between how firms draft their contracts on the one hand, and how firms actually treat consumers on the other. Interestingly, the Gap is frequently manifested by deviation from the written contract in favor of consumers. In other words, firms often exercise lenient approach in spite of the stringent written contracts they draft. This essay examines whether, counter-intuitively, policy makers should add firms’ leniency to the growing list of firms suspicious behaviors. At first glance, firms should be allowed, if not encouraged, to exercise leniency. Many legal regimes are looking for ways to cope with unfair contract terms in consumer contracts. Naturally, therefore, consumer law should enable, if not encourage, firms’ lenient practices. Firms’ willingness to deviate from their strict contracts in order to benefit consumers seems like a sensible approach. Apparently, such behavior should not be second guessed. However, at times online tools, firm’s behaviors and human psychology result in a toxic mix. Beneficial and helpful online information should be treated with due respect as it may occasionally have surprising and harmful qualities. In this essay, we illustrate that technological changes turn the Gap into a key component in consumers' understanding, or misunderstanding, of consumer contracts. In short, a Gap may distort consumers’ perception and undermine rational decision-making. Consequently, this essay explores whether, counter-intuitively, consumer law should sanction firms that create a Gap and use it. It examines when firms’ leniency should be considered as manipulative or exercised in bad faith. It then investigates whether firms should be allowed to enforce the written contract even if the firms deliberately and consistently deviated from it.

Keywords: consumer contracts, consumer protection, information flow, law and economics, law and technology, paper deal v firms' behavior

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Authors: Wen-Chung Wang, Xue-Lan Qiu

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Ipsative tests have been widely used in vocational and career counseling (e.g., the Jackson Vocational Interest Survey). Pairwise-comparison items are a typical item format of ipsative tests. When the two statements in a pairwise-comparison item measure two different constructs, the item is referred to as a multidimensional pairwise-comparison (MPC) item. A typical MPC item would be: Which activity do you prefer? (A) playing with young children, or (B) working with tools and machines. These two statements aim at the constructs of social interest and investigative interest, respectively. Recently, new item response theory (IRT) models for ipsative tests with MPC items have been developed. Among them, the Rasch ipsative model (RIM) deserves special attention because it has good measurement properties, in which the log-odds of preferring statement A to statement B are defined as a competition between two parts: the sum of a person’s latent trait to which statement A is measuring and statement A’s utility, and the sum of a person’s latent trait to which statement B is measuring and statement B’s utility. The RIM has been extended to polytomous responses, such as preferring statement A strongly, preferring statement A, preferring statement B, and preferring statement B strongly. To promote the new initiatives, in this study we developed computerized adaptive testing algorithms for MFC items and evaluated their performance using simulations and two real tests. Both the RIM and its polytomous extension are multidimensional, which calls for multidimensional computerized adaptive testing (MCAT). A particular issue in MCAT for MPC items is the within-person statement exposure (WPSE); that is, a respondent may keep seeing the same statement (e.g., my life is empty) for many times, which is certainly annoying. In this study, we implemented two methods to control the WPSE rate. In the first control method, items would be frozen when their statements had been administered more than a prespecified times. In the second control method, a random component was added to control the contribution of the information at different stages of MCAT. The second control method was found to outperform the first control method in our simulation studies. In addition, we investigated four item selection methods: (a) random selection (as a baseline), (b) maximum Fisher information method without WPSE control, (c) maximum Fisher information method with the first control method, and (d) maximum Fisher information method with the second control method. These four methods were applied to two real tests: one was a work survey with dichotomous MPC items and the other is a career interests survey with polytomous MPC items. There were three dependent variables: the bias and root mean square error across person measures, and measurement efficiency which was defined as the number of items needed to achieve the same degree of test reliability. Both applications indicated that the proposed MCAT algorithms were successful and there was no loss in measurement proficiency when the control methods were implemented, and among the four methods, the last method performed the best.

Keywords: computerized adaptive testing, ipsative tests, item response theory, pairwise comparison

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Authors: D. Pogliana, A. Maso, N. Milani, D. Panzin, S. Rivaroli, J. Konin

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This case aims to identify the role of movement quality during the final stage of return to sport (RTS) in a male amateur football player 13 years old after passing the acute phase of the bilateral Osgood-Schlatter disease (OSD). The patient, after a year from passing the acute phase of OSD with the abstention of physical activity, reports bilateral anterior knee pain at the beginning of the football sport activity. Interventions: After the orthopedist check, who recommended physiotherapy sessions for the correction of motor patterns and the isometric reinforcement of the muscles of the quadriceps, the rehabilitation intervention was developed in 7 weeks through 14 sessions of neuro-motor training (NMT) with a frequency of two weekly sessions and six sessions of muscle-strengthening with a frequency of one weekly session. The sessions of NMT were carried out through free body exercises (or with overloads) with visual bio-feedback with the help of two cameras (one with anterior vision and one with lateral vision of the subject) and a big touch screen. The aim of these sessions of NMT was to modify the dysfunctional motor patterns evaluated by the 2D motion analysis test. The test was carried out at the beginning and at the end of the rehabilitation course and included five movements: single-leg squat (SLS), drop jump (DJ), single-leg hop (SLH), lateral shuffle (LS), and change of direction (COD). Each of these movements was evaluated through the video analysis of dynamic valgus knee, pelvic tilt, trunk control, shock absorption, and motor strategy. A free image analysis software (Kinovea) was then used to calculate scores. Results: Baseline assessment of the subject showed a total score of 59% on the right limb and 64% on the left limb (considering an optimal score above 85%) with large deficits in shock absorption capabilities, the presence of dynamic valgus knee, and dysfunctional motor strategies defined “quadriceps dominant.” After six weeks of training, the subject achieved a total score of 80% on the right limb and 86% on the left limb, with significant improvements in shock absorption capabilities, the presence of dynamic knee valgus, and the employment of more hip-oriented motor strategies on both lower limbs. The improvements shown in dynamic knee valgus, greater hip-oriented motor strategies, and improved shock absorption identified through six weeks of the NMT program can help a teenager amateur football player to manage the anterior knee pain during sports activity. In conclusion, NMT was a good choice to help a 13 years old male amateur football player to return to performance without pain after OSD and can also be used with all this type of athletes of the other teams' sports.

Keywords: movement analysis, neuro-motor training, knee pain, movement strategies

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Authors: Qian Chen, Lin Xu, Ping Ju, Zhuoran Li, Yiping Yu, Yuqing Jin

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The operation of power grid is becoming more and more complex and difficult due to its rapid development towards high voltage, long distance, and large capacity. For instance, many large-scale wind farms have connected to power grid, where their fluctuation and randomness is very likely to affect the stability and safety of the grid. Fortunately, many new-type equipments based on power electronics have been applied to power grid, such as UPFC (Unified Power Flow Controller), TCSC (Thyristor Controlled Series Compensation), STATCOM (Static Synchronous Compensator) and so on, which can help to deal with the problem above. Compared with traditional equipment such as generator, new-type controllable devices, represented by the FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission System), have more accurate control ability and respond faster. But they are too expensive to use widely. Therefore, on the basis of the comparison and analysis of the controlling characteristics between traditional control equipment and new-type controllable equipment in both time and space scale, a coordinated optimizing control method within mutil-time-space frame is proposed in this paper to bring both kinds of advantages into play, which can better both control ability and economical efficiency. Firstly, the coordination of different space sizes of grid is studied focused on the fluctuation caused by large-scale wind farms connected to power grid. With generator, FSC (Fixed Series Compensation) and TCSC, the coordination method on two-layer regional power grid vs. its sub grid is studied in detail. The coordination control model is built, the corresponding scheme is promoted, and the conclusion is verified by simulation. By analysis, interface power flow can be controlled by generator and the specific line power flow between two-layer regions can be adjusted by FSC and TCSC. The smaller the interface power flow adjusted by generator, the bigger the control margin of TCSC, instead, the total consumption of generator is much higher. Secondly, the coordination of different time sizes is studied to further the amount of the total consumption of generator and the control margin of TCSC, where the minimum control cost can be acquired. The coordination method on two-layer ultra short-term correction vs. AGC (Automatic Generation Control) is studied with generator, FSC and TCSC. The optimal control model is founded, genetic algorithm is selected to solve the problem, and the conclusion is verified by simulation. Finally, the aforementioned method within multi-time-space scale is analyzed with practical cases, and simulated on PSASP (Power System Analysis Software Package) platform. The correctness and effectiveness are verified by the simulation result. Moreover, this coordinated optimizing control method can contribute to the decrease of control cost and will provide reference to the following studies in this field.

Keywords: FACTS, multi-space-time frame, optimal control, TCSC

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Authors: David Schafer

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Critical Theory is in sore need of a workable account of technology. It had one in the writings of Herbert Marcuse, or so it seemed until Jürgen Habermas mounted a critique in 'Technology and Science as Ideology' (Habermas, 1970) that decisively put it away. Ever since Marcuse’s work has been regarded outdated – a 'philosophy of consciousness' no longer seriously tenable. But with Marcuse’s view has gone the important insight that technology is no norm-free system (as Habermas portrays it) but can be laden with social bias. Andrew Feenberg is among a few serious scholars who have perceived this problem in post-Habermasian critical theory and has sought to revive a basically Marcusean account of technology. On his view, while so-called ‘technical elements’ that physically make up technologies are neutral with regard to social interests, there is a sense in which we may speak of a normative grammar or ‘technical code’ built-in to technology that can be socially biased in favor of certain groups over others (Feenberg, 2002). According to Feenberg, those perspectives on technology are reified which consider technology only by their technical elements to the neglect of their technical codes. Nevertheless, Feenberg’s account fails to explain what is normatively problematic with such reified views of technology. His plausible claim that they represent false perspectives on technology by itself does not explain how such views may be oppressive, even though Feenberg surely wants to be doing that stronger level of normative theorizing. Perceiving this deficit in his own account of reification, he tries to adopt Habermas’s version of systems-theory to ground his own critical theory of technology (Feenberg, 1999). But this is a curious move in light of Feenberg’s own legitimate critiques of Habermas’s portrayals of technology as reified or ‘norm-free.’ This paper argues that a better foundation may be found in Axel Honneth’s recent text, Freedom’s Right (Honneth, 2014). Though Honneth there says little explicitly about technology, he offers an implicit account of reification formulated in opposition to Habermas’s systems-theoretic approach. On this ‘normative functionalist’ account of reification, social spheres are reified when participants prioritize individualist ideals of freedom (moral and legal freedom) to the neglect of an intersubjective form of freedom-through-recognition that Honneth calls ‘social freedom.’ Such misprioritization is ultimately problematic because it is unsustainable: individual freedom is philosophically and institutionally dependent upon social freedom. The main difficulty in adopting Honneth’s social theory for the purposes of a theory of technology, however, is that the notion of social freedom is predicable only of social institutions, whereas it appears difficult to conceive of technology as an institution. Nevertheless, in light of Feenberg’s work, the idea that technology includes within itself a normative grammar (technical code) takes on much plausibility. To the extent that this normative grammar may be understood by the category of social freedom, Honneth’s dialectical account of the relationship between individual and social forms of freedom provides a more solid basis from which to ground the normative claims of Feenberg’s sociological account of technology than Habermas’s systems theory.

Keywords: Habermas, Honneth, technology, Feenberg

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Authors: Brianne Nichols, John A. Parkinson

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Positive Psychology has provided a rich understanding of the beneficial effects of positive emotions in relation to optimal functioning, and research has been devoted to promote states of positive feeling and thinking. While this is a worthwhile pursuit, positive emotions are not useful in all contexts - some situations may require the individual to make use of their negative emotions to reach a desired end state. To account for the potential value of a wider range of emotional experiences that are common to the human condition, Positive Psychology needs to expand its horizons and investigate how individuals achieve positive outcomes using varied means. The current research seeks to understand the positive psychology of fear of failure (FF), which is a commonly experienced negative emotion relevant to most life domains. On the one hand, this emotion has been linked with avoidance motivation and self-handicap behaviours, on the other; FF has been shown to act as a drive to move the individual forward. To fully capture the depth of this highly subjective emotional experience and understand the circumstances under which FF may be adaptive, this study adopted a mixed methods design using SenseMaker; a web-based tool that combines the richness of narratives with the objectivity of numerical data. Two hundred participants consisting mostly of undergraduate university students shared a story of a time in the recent past when they feared failure of achieving a valued goal. To avoid researcher bias in the interpretation of narratives, participants self-signified their stories in a tagging system that was based on researchers’ aim to explore the role of past failures, the cognitive, emotional and behavioural profile of individuals high and low in FF, and the relationship between these factors. In addition, the role of perceived personal control and self-esteem were investigated in relation to FF using self-report questionnaires. Results from quantitative analyses indicated that individuals with high levels of FF, compared to low, were strongly influenced by past failures and preoccupied with their thoughts and emotions relating to the fear. This group also reported an unwillingness to accept their internal experiences, which in turn was associated with withdrawal from goal pursuit. Furthermore, self-esteem was found to mediate the relationship between perceived control and FF, suggesting that self-esteem, with or without control beliefs, may have the potential to buffer against high FF. It is hoped that the insights provided by the current study will inspire future research to explore the ways in which ‘acceptance’ may help individuals keep moving towards a goal despite the presence of FF, and whether cultivating a non-contingent self-esteem is the key to resilience in the face of failures.

Keywords: fear of failure, goal-pursuit, negative emotions, optimal functioning, resilience

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Authors: Tiffanie-Marie Borg, Yasmin Zeinolabediny, Nima Heidari, Ali Noorani, Mark Slevin, Angel Cullen, Stefano Olgiati, Alberto Zerbi, Alessandro Danovi, Adrian Wilson

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Knee Osteoarthritis (OA) is a critical cause of disability globally. In recent years, there has been growing interest in non-invasive treatments, such as intra-articular injection of micro-fragmented fat (MFAT), showing great potential in treating OA. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), originating from pericytes of micro-vessels in MFAT, can differentiate into mesenchymal lineage cells such as cartilage, osteocytes, adipocytes, and osteoblasts. Secretion of growth factor and cytokines from MSCs have the capability to inhibit T cell growth, reduced pain and inflammation, and create a micro-environment that through paracrine signaling, can promote joint repair and cartilage regeneration. Here we have shown, for the first time, data supporting the hypothesis that women respond better in terms of improvements in pain and function to MFAT injection compared to men. Historically, women have been underrepresented in studies, and studies with both sexes regularly fail to analyse the results by sex. To mitigate this bias and quantify it, we describe a technique using reproducible statistical analysis and replicable results with Open Access statistical software R to calculate the magnitude of this difference. Genetic, hormonal, environmental, and age factors play a role in our observed difference between the sexes. This observational, intention-to-treat study included the complete sample of 456 patients who agreed to be scored for pain (visual analogue scale (VAS)) and function (Oxford knee score (OKS)) at baseline regardless of subsequent changes to adherence or status during follow-up. We report that a significantly larger number of women responded to treatment than men: [90% vs. 60% change in VAS scores with 87% vs. 65% change in OKS scores, respectively]. Women overall had a stronger positive response to treatment with reduced pain and improved mobility and function. Pre-injection, our cohort of women were in more pain with worse joint function which is quite common to see in orthopaedics. However, during the 2-year follow-up, they consistently maintained a lower incidence of discomfort with superior joint function. This data clearly identifies a clear need for further studies to identify the cell and molecular biological and other basis for these differences and be able to utilize this information for stratification in order to improve outcome for both women and men.

Keywords: gender differences, micro-fragmented adipose tissue, knee osteoarthritis, stem cells

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Authors: Neeraj Vij, Amber Brennan, Jenni Winters, Hadi Salehi, Hamy Temkit, Emily Andrisevic, Mohan V. Belthur

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Idiopathic clubfoot is a common lower extremity deformity with an incidence of 1:500. The Ponseti Method is well known as the gold standard of treatment. However, there is limited functional data demonstrating correction of the clubfoot after treatment with the Ponseti method. The purpose of this study was to study the clinical and functional outcomes after the Ponseti method with the Clubfoot Disease-Specific Instrument (CDS) and pedobarography. This IRB-approved prospective study included patients aged 3-18 who were treated for idiopathic clubfoot with the Ponseti method between January 2008 and December 2018. Age-matched controls were identified through siblings of clubfoot patients and other community members. Treatment details were collected through a chart review of the included patients. Laboratory assessment included a physical exam, gait analysis, and pedobarography. The Pediatric Outcomes Data Collection Instrument and the Clubfoot Disease-Specific Instrument were also obtained on clubfoot patients (CF). The Wilcoxson rank-sum test was used to study differences between the CF patients and the typically developing (TD) patients. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. There were a total of 37 enrolled patients in our study. 21 were priorly treated for CF and 16 were TD. 94% of the CF patients had bilateral involvement. The age at the start of treatment was 29 days, the average total number of casts was seven to eight, and the average total number of casts after Achilles tenotomy was one. The reoccurrence rate was 25%, tenotomy was required in 94% of patients, and ≥1 tenotomy was required in 25% of patients. There were no significant differences between step length, step width, stride length, force-time integral, maximum peak pressure, foot progression angles, stance phase time, single-limb support time, double limb support time, and gait cycle time between children treated with the Ponseti method and typically developing children. The average post-treatment Pirani and Dimeglio scores were 5.50±0.58 and 15.29±1.58, respectively. The average post-treatment PODCI subscores were: Upper Extremity: 90.28, Transfers: 94.6, Sports: 86.81, Pain: 86.20, Happiness: 89.52, Global: 88.6. The average post-treatment Clubfoot Disease-Specific Instrument scores subscores were: Satisfaction: 73.93, Function: 80.32, Overall: 78.41. The Ponseti Method has a very high success rate and remains to be the gold standard in the treatment of idiopathic clubfoot. Timely management leads to good outcomes and a low need for repeated Achilles tenotomy. Children treated with the Ponseti method demonstrate good functional outcomes as measured through pedobarography. Pedobarography may have clinical utility in studying congenital foot deformities. Objective measures for hours of brace wear could represent an improvement in clubfoot care.

Keywords: functional outcomes, pediatric deformity, patient-reported outcomes, talipes equinovarus

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Authors: Georges Ghazi, Magali Gelhaye, Ruxandra Botez

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Over the years, the Flight Management System (FMS) has experienced a continuous improvement of its many features, to the point of becoming the pilot’s primary interface for flight planning operation on the airplane. With the assistance of the FMS, the concept of distance and time has been completely revolutionized, providing the crew members with the determination of the optimized route (or flight plan) from the departure airport to the arrival airport. To accomplish this function, the FMS needs an accurate Aircraft Performance Model (APM) of the aircraft. In general, APMs that equipped most modern FMSs are established before the entry into service of an individual aircraft, and results from the combination of a set of ordinary differential equations and a set of performance databases. Unfortunately, an aircraft in service is constantly exposed to dynamic loads that degrade its flight characteristics. These degradations endow two main origins: airframe deterioration (control surfaces rigging, seals missing or damaged, etc.) and engine performance degradation (fuel consumption increase for a given thrust). Thus, after several years of service, the performance databases and the APM associated to a specific aircraft are no longer representative enough of the actual aircraft performance. It is important to monitor the trend of the performance deterioration and correct the uncertainties of the aircraft model in order to improve the accuracy the flight management system predictions. The basis of this research lies in the new ability to continuously update an Aircraft Performance Model (APM) during flight using an adaptive lookup table technique. This methodology was developed and applied to the well-known Cessna Citation X business aircraft. For the purpose of this study, a level D Research Aircraft Flight Simulator (RAFS) was used as a test aircraft. According to Federal Aviation Administration the level D is the highest certification level for the flight dynamics modeling. Basically, using data available in the Flight Crew Operating Manual (FCOM), a first APM describing the variation of the engine fan speed and aircraft fuel flow w.r.t flight conditions was derived. This model was next improved using the proposed methodology. To do that, several cruise flights were performed using the RAFS. An algorithm was developed to frequently sample the aircraft sensors measurements during the flight and compare the model prediction with the actual measurements. Based on these comparisons, a correction was performed on the actual APM in order to minimize the error between the predicted data and the measured data. In this way, as the aircraft flies, the APM will be continuously enhanced, making the FMS more and more precise and the prediction of trajectories more realistic and more reliable. The results obtained are very encouraging. Indeed, using the tables initialized with the FCOM data, only a few iterations were needed to reduce the fuel flow prediction error from an average relative error of 12% to 0.3%. Similarly, the FCOM prediction regarding the engine fan speed was reduced from a maximum error deviation of 5.0% to 0.2% after only ten flights.

Keywords: aircraft performance, cruise, trajectory optimization, adaptive lookup tables, Cessna Citation X

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Authors: Stephanie Jo Marchese

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This oral presentation is a reflective piece regarding current social work teaching methods that value and devalue the lived experiences of survivor students. This presentation grounds the term ‘survivor’ in feminist frameworks. A survivor-defined approach to feminist advocacy assumes an individual’s agency, considers each case and needs independent of generalizations, and provides resources and support to empower victims. Feminist ideologies are ripe arenas to update and influence the rapport-building schools of social work have with these students. Survivor-based frameworks are rooted in nuanced understandings of intersectional realities, staunchly combat both conscious and unconscious deficit lenses wielded against victims, elevate lived experiences to the realm of experiential expertise, and offer alternatives to traditional power structures and knowledge exchanges. Actively importing a survivor framework into the methodology of social work teaching breaks open barriers many survivor students have faced in institutional settings, this author included. The profession of social work is at an important crux of change, both in the United States and globally. The United States is currently undergoing a radical change in its citizenry and outlier communities have taken to the streets again in opposition to their othered-ness. New waves of students are entering this field, emboldened by their survival of personal and systemic oppressions- heavily influenced by third-wave feminism, critical race theory, queer theory, among other post-structuralist ideologies. Traditional models of sociological and psychological studies are actively being challenged. The profession of social work was not founded on the diagnosis of disorders but rather a grassroots-level activism that heralded and demanded resources for oppressed communities. Institutional and classroom acceptance and celebration of survivor narratives can catapult the resurgence of these values needed in the profession’s service-delivery models and put social workers back in the driver's seat of social change (a combined advocacy and policy perspective), moving away from outsider-based intervention models. Survivor students should be viewed as agents of change, not solely former victims and clients. The ideas of this presentation proposal are supported through various qualitative interviews, as well as reviews of ‘best practices’ in the field of education that incorporate feminist methods of inclusion and empowerment. Curriculum and policy recommendations are also offered.

Keywords: deficit lens bias, empowerment theory, feminist praxis, inclusive teaching models, strengths-based approaches, social work teaching methods

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Authors: Peter J. Fusco, Dave M. Mathew, Chris Mathew, Kenneth H. Levy, Kathryn S. Varghese, Stephanie Salazar-Restrepo, Serena M. Mathew, Sofia Khaja, Eamon Vega, Mia Polizzi, Alyssa Mullane, Adham Ahmed

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Background: Laparoscopic (LS) removal of neuroblastomas in children has been reported to offer favorable outcomes compared to the conventional open thoracotomy (OT) procedure. Critical perioperative measures such as blood loss, operative time, length of stay, and time to postoperative chemotherapy have all supported laparoscopic use rather than its more invasive counterpart. Herein, a pairwise meta-analysis was performed comparing perioperative outcomes between LS and OT in thoracoabdominal neuroblastoma cases. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was performed on PubMed, Ovid EMBASE, and Scopus databases to identify studies comparing the outcomes of pediatric patients with thoracoabdominal neuroblastomas undergoing resection via OT or LS. After deduplication, 4,227 studies were identified and subjected to initial title screening with exclusion and inclusion criteria to ensure relevance. When studies contained overlapping cohorts, only the larger series were included. Primary outcomes include estimated blood loss (EBL), hospital length of stay (LOS), and mortality, while secondary outcomes were tumor recurrence, post-operative complications, and operation length. The “meta” and “metafor” packages were used in R, version 4.0.2, to pool risk ratios (RR) or standardized mean differences (SMD) in addition to their 95% confidence intervals in the random effects model via the Mantel-Haenszel method. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the I² test, while publication bias was assessed via funnel plot. Results: The pooled analysis included 209 patients from 5 studies (141 OT, 68 LS). Of the included studies, 2 originated from the United States, 1 from Toronto, 1 from China, and 1was from a Japanese center. Mean age between study cohorts ranged from 2.4 to 5.3 years old, with female patients occupying between 30.8% to 50% of the study populations. No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups for LOS (SMD -1.02; p=0.083), mortality (RR 0.30; p=0.251), recurrence(RR 0.31; p=0.162), post-operative complications (RR 0.73; p=0.732), or operation length (SMD -0.07; p=0.648). Of note, LS appeared to be protective in the analysis for EBL, although it did not reach statistical significance (SMD -0.4174; p= 0.051). Conclusion: Despite promising literature assessing LS removal of pediatric neuroblastomas, results showed it was non-superior to OT for any explored perioperative outcomes. Given the limited comparative data on the subject, it is evident that randomized trials are necessary to further the efficacy of the conclusions reached.

Keywords: laparoscopy, neuroblastoma, thoracoabdominal, thoracotomy

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Authors: Charlotte Dreger, Erik Bollaert

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This paper presents two environmentally-friendly coastal structures realized on the Lake of Neuchâtel. Both structures reflect current environmental issues of concern on the lake and have been strongly affected by extreme meteorological conditions between their period of design and their actual operational period. The Lake of Neuchatel is one of the biggest Swiss lakes and measures around 38 km in length and 8.2 km in width, for a maximum water depth of 152 m. Its particular topographical alignment, situated in between the Swiss Plateau and the Jura mountains, combines strong winds and large fetch values, resulting in significant wave heights during storm events at both north-east and south-west lake extremities. In addition, due to flooding concerns, historically, lake levels have been lowered by several meters during the Jura correction works in the 19th and 20th century. Hence, during storm events, continuous erosion of the vulnerable molasse shorelines and sand banks generate frequent and abundant littoral transport from the center of the lake to its extremities. This phenomenon does not only cause disturbances of the ecosystem, but also generates numerous problems at natural or man-made infrastructures located along the shorelines, such as reed plants, harbor entrances, canals, etc. A first example is provided at the southwestern extremity, near the city of Yverdon, where an ensemble of 11 small islands, the Iles des Vernes, have been artificially created in view of enhancing biological conditions and food availability for bird species during their migration process, replacing at the same time two larger islands that were affected by lack of morphodynamics and general vegetalization of their surfaces. The article will present the concept and dimensioning of these islands based on 2D numerical modelling, as well as the realization and follow-up campaigns. In particular, the influence of several major storm events that occurred immediately after the works will be pointed out. Second, a sediment retention dike is discussed at the northeastern extremity, at the entrance of the Canal de la Broye into the lake. This canal is heavily used for navigation and suffers from frequent and significant sedimentation at its outlet. The new coastal structure has been designed to minimize sediment deposits around the exutory of the canal into the lake, by retaining the littoral transport during storm events. The article will describe the basic assumptions used to design the dike, as well as the construction works and follow-up campaigns. Especially the huge influence of changing meteorological conditions on the littoral transport of the Lake of Neuchatel since project design ten years ago will be pointed out. Not only the intensity and frequency of storm events are increasing, but also the main wind directions alter, affecting in this way the efficiency of the coastal structure in retaining the sediments.

Keywords: meteorological evolution, sediment transport, lake of Neuchatel, numerical modelling, environmental measures

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

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Authors: Emily Wood, James K. Westphal, Itamar Lerner

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Background: Polysomnography (PSG) recordings are regularly used in research and clinical settings to study sleep and sleep-related disorders. Typical PSG studies are conducted in professional laboratories and performed by qualified researchers. However, the number of sleep labs worldwide is disproportionate to the increasing number of individuals with sleep disorders like sleep apnea and insomnia. Consequently, there is a growing need to supply cheaper yet reliable means to measure sleep, preferably autonomously by subjects in their own home. Over the last decade, a variety of devices for self-monitoring of sleep became available in the market; however, very few have been directly validated against PSG to demonstrate their ability to perform reliable automatic sleep scoring. Two popular mobile EEG-based systems that have published validation results, the DREEM 3 headband and the Z-Machine, have never been directly compared one to the other by independent researchers. The current study aimed to compare the performance of DREEM 3 and the Z-Machine to help investigators and clinicians decide which of these devices may be more suitable for their studies. Methods: 26 participants have completed the study for credit or monetary compensation. Exclusion criteria included any history of sleep, neurological or psychiatric disorders. Eligible participants arrived at the lab in the afternoon and received the two devices. They then spent two consecutive nights monitoring their sleep at home. Participants were also asked to keep a sleep log, indicating the time they fell asleep, woke up, and the number of awakenings occurring during the night. Data from both devices, including detailed sleep hypnograms in 30-second epochs (differentiating Wake, combined N1/N2, N3; and Rapid Eye Movement sleep), were extracted and aligned upon retrieval. For analysis, the number of awakenings each night was defined as four or more consecutive wake epochs between sleep onset and termination. Total sleep time (TST) and the number of awakenings were compared to subjects’ sleep logs to measure consistency with the subjective reports. In addition, the sleep scores from each device were compared epoch-by-epoch to calculate the agreement between the two devices using Cohen’s Kappa. All analysis was performed using Matlab 2021b and SPSS 27. Results/Conclusion: Subjects consistently reported longer times spent asleep than the time reported by each device (M= 448 minutes for sleep logs compared to M= 406 and M= 345 minutes for the DREEM and Z-Machine, respectively; both ps<0.05). Linear correlations between the sleep log and each device were higher for the DREEM than the Z-Machine for both TST and the number of awakenings, and, likewise, the mean absolute bias between the sleep logs and each device was higher for the Z-Machine for both TST (p<0.001) and awakenings (p<0.04). There was some indication that these effects were stronger for the second night compared to the first night. Epoch-by-epoch comparisons showed that the main discrepancies between the devices were for detecting N2 and REM sleep, while N3 had a high agreement. Overall, the DREEM headband seems superior for reliably scoring sleep at home.

Keywords: DREEM, EEG, seep monitoring, Z-machine

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Authors: Sarah Maiter

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Heightened globalization, migration, displacement of citizens, and refugee needs is putting increasing demand for approaches to social services for diverse populations that responds to families to ensure the safety and protection of vulnerable members while providing supports and services. Along with this social works re-focus on socially just approaches to practice increasingly asks social workers to consider the challenging circumstances of families when providing services rather than a focus on individual shortcomings alone. Child protection workers then struggle to ensure safety of children while assessing the needs of families. This assessment can prove to be difficult when providing services to immigrant, refugee, and racially diverse families as understanding of and familiarity with these families is often limited. Furthermore, child protection intervention in western countries is state mandated having legal authority when intervening in the lives of families where child protection concerns have been identified. Within this context, racialized immigrant and refugee families are at risk of misunderstandings that can result in interventions that are overly intrusive, unhelpful, and harsh. Research shows disproportionality and overrepresentation of racial and ethnic minorities, and immigrant families in the child protection system. Reasons noted include: a) possibilities of racial bias in reporting and substantiating abuse, b) struggles on the part of workers when working with families from diverse ethno-racial backgrounds and who are immigrants and may have limited proficiency in the national language of the country, c) interventions during crisis and differential ongoing services for these families, d) diverse contexts of these families that poses additional challenges for families and children, and e) possible differential definitions of child maltreatment. While cultural and ethnic diversity in child rearing approaches have been cited as contributors to child protection concerns, this approach should be viewed cautiously as it can result in stereotyping and generalizing that then results in inappropriate assessment and intervention. However, poverty and the lack of social supports, both well-known contributors to child protection concerns, also impact these families disproportionately. Child protection systems, therefore, need to continue to examine policy and practice approaches with these families that ensures safety of children while balancing the needs of families. This presentation provides data from several research studies that examined definitions of child maltreatment among a sample of racialized immigrant families, experiences of a sample of immigrant families with the child protection system, concerns of a sample of child protection workers in the provision of services to these families, and struggles of families in the transitions to their new country. These studies, along with others provide insights into areas of consideration for practice that can contribute to safety for children while ensuring just and equitable responses that have greater potential for keeping families together rather than premature apprehension and removal of children to state care.

Keywords: child protection, child welfare services, immigrant families, racial and ethnic diversity

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Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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Authors: Heiko Jessen, Laura Tanus, Slobodan Ruzicic

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Objectives: The efficacy of Stribild®, an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) -based STR, has been evaluated in randomized clinical trials and it has demonstrated durable capability in terms of achieving sustained suppression of HIV-1 RNA-levels. However, differences in monitoring frequency, existing selection bias and profile of patients enrolled in the trials, may all result in divergent efficacy of this regimen in routine clinical settings. The aim of this study was to assess the virologic outcomes, safety and tolerability profile of Stribild® in a routine clinical setting. Methods: This was a retrospective monocentric analysis on HIV-1-infected patients, who started with or were switched to Stribild®. Virological failure (VF) was defined as confirmed HIV-RNA>50 copies/ml. The minimum time of follow-up was 24 weeks. The percentage of patients remaining free of therapeutic failure was estimated using the time-to-loss-of-virologic-response (TLOVR) algorithm, by intent-to-treat analysis. Results: We analyzed the data of 197 patients (56 ART-naïve and 141 treatment-experienced patients), who fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Majority (95.9%) of patients were male. The median time of HIV-infection at baseline was 2 months in treatment-naïve and 70 months in treatment-experienced patients. Median time [IQR] under ART in treatment-experienced patients was 37 months. Among the treatment-experienced patients 27.0% had already been treated with a regimen consisting of two NRTIs and one INSTI, whereas 18.4% of them experienced a VF. The median time [IQR] of virological suppression prior to therapy with Stribild® in the treatment-experienced patients was 10 months [0-27]. At the end of follow-up (median 33 months), 87.3% (95% CI, 83.5-91.2) of treatment-naïve and 80.3% (95% CI, 75.8-84.8) of treatment-experienced patients remained free of therapeutic failure. Considering only treatment-experienced patients with baseline VL<50 copies/ml, 83.0% (95% CI, 78.5-87.5) remained free of therapeutic failure. A total of 17 patients stopped treatment with Stribild®, 5.4% (3/56) of them were treatment-naïve and 9.9% (14/141) were treatment-experienced patients. The Stribild® therapy was discontinued in 2 (1.0%) because of VF, loss to follow-up in 4 (2.0%), and drug-drug interactions in 2 (1.0%) patients. Adverse events were in 7 (3.6%) patients the reason to switch from therapy with Stribild® and further 2 (1.0%) patients decided personally to switch. The most frequently observed adverse events were gastrointestinal side effects (20.0%), headache (8%), rash events (7%) and dizziness (6%). In two patients we observed an emergence of novel resistances in integrase-gene. The N155H evolved in one patient and resulted in VF. In another patient S119R evolved either during or shortly upon switch from therapy with Stribild®. In one further patient with VF two novel mutations in the RT-gene were observed when compared to historical genotypic test result (V106I/M and M184V), whereby it is not clear whether they evolved during or already before the switch to Stribild®. Conclusions: Effectiveness of Stribild® for treatment-naïve patients was consistent with data obtained in clinical trials. The safety and tolerability profile as well as resistance development confirmed clinical efficacy of Stribild® in a daily practice setting.

Keywords: ART, HIV, integrase inhibitor, stribild

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Authors: Alida Sandison, Louise A. Stroud

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Narcissism is a personality configuration which has both normal and pathological personality expressions. Narcissism is highly complex, and is linked to a broad field of research. There are both dimensional and categorical conceptualisations of narcissism, and a variety of theoretical formulations that have been put forward to understand the narcissistic personality configuration. Currently, Kernberg’s Object Relations theory is well supported for this purpose. The complexity and particular defense mechanisms at play in the narcissistic personality make it a difficult personality configuration worth further research. Psychobiography as a methodology allows for the exploration of the lived life, and is thus a useful methodology to surmount these inherent challenges. Narcissism has been a focus of academic interest for a long time, and although there is a lot of research done in this area, to the researchers' knowledge, narcissistic dynamics have never been explored within a psychobiographical format. Thus, the primary aim of the research was to explore and describe narcissism in the life of Howard Hughes, with the objective of gaining further insight into narcissism through the use of this unconventional research approach. Hughes was chosen as subject for the study as he is renowned as an eccentric billionaire who had his revolutionary effect on the world, but was concurrently disturbed within his personal pathologies. Hughes was dynamic in three different sectors, namely motion pictures, aviation and gambling. He became more and more reclusive as he entered into middle age. From his early fifties he was agoraphobic, and the social network of connectivity that could reasonably be expected from someone in the top of their field was notably distorted. Due to his strong narcissistic personality configuration, and the interpersonal difficulties he experienced, Hughes represents an ideal figure to explore narcissism. The study used a single case study design, and purposive sampling to select Hughes. Qualitative data was sampled, using secondary data sources. Given that Hughes was a famous figure, there is a plethora of information on his life, which is primarily autobiographical. This includes books written about his life, and archival material in the form of newspaper articles, interviews and movies. Gathered data were triangulated to avoid the effect of author bias, and increase the credibility of the data used. It was collected using Yin’s guidelines for data collection. Data was analysed using Miles and Huberman strategy of data analysis, which consists of three steps, namely, data reduction, data display, and conclusion drawing and verification. Patterns which emerged in the data highlighted the defense mechanisms used by Hughes, in particular that of splitting and projection, in defending his sense of self. These defense mechanisms help us to understand the high levels of entitlement and paranoia experienced by Hughes. Findings provide further insight into his sense of isolation and difference, and the consequent difficulty he experienced in maintaining connections with others. Findings furthermore confirm the effectiveness of Kernberg’s theory in understanding narcissism observing an individual life.

Keywords: Howard Hughes, narcissism, narcissistic defenses, object relations

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Barbara Behre, Verolien Cauberghe, Dieneke Van de Sompel

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Sustainable consumption is on the rise, yet it has still not entered the mainstream in several industries, such as the fashion industry. In online fashion contexts, sustainability cues have been used to signal the sustainable benefits of certain garments to promote sustainable consumption. These sustainable cues may focus on the ecological or social dimension of sustainability. Since sustainability, in general, relates to distant, abstract benefits, the current study aims to examine if and how psychological distance may mediate the effects of exposure to different sustainability cues on consumption outcomes. Following the framework of Construal Level Theory of Psychological Distance, reduced psychological distance renders the construal level more concrete, which may influence attitudes and subsequent behavior in situations like fashion shopping. Most studies investigated sustainability as a composite, failing to differentiate between ecological and societal aspects of sustainability. The few studies examining sustainability more in detail uncovered that environmental sustainability is rather perceived in abstract cognitive construal, whereas social sustainability is linked to concrete construal. However, the construal level affiliation of the sustainability dimensions likely is not universally applicable to different domains and stages of consumption, which further suggest a need to clarify the relationships between environmental and social sustainability dimensions and the construal level of psychological distance within fashion brand consumption. While psychological distance and construal level have been examined in the context of sustainability, these studies yielded mixed results. The inconsistent findings of past studies might be due to the context-dependence of psychological distance as inducing construal differently in diverse situations. Especially in a hedonic consumption context like online fashion shopping, the role of visual processing of information could determine behavioural outcomes as linked to situational construal. Given the influence of the mode of processing on psychological distance and construal level, the current study examines the moderating role of verbal versus non-verbal presentation of the sustainability cues. In a 3 (environmental sustainability vs. social sustainability vs. control) x 2 (non-verbal message vs. verbal message) between subjects experiment, the present study thus examines how consumers evaluate sustainable brands in online shopping contexts in terms of psychological distance and construal level, as well as the impact on brand attitudes and buying intentions. The results among 246 participants verify the differential impact of the sustainability dimensions on fashion brand purchase intent as mediated by construal level and perceived psychological distance. The ecological sustainability cue is perceived as more concrete, which might be explained by consumer bias induced by the predominance of pro-environmental sustainability messages. The verbal versus non-verbal presentation of the sustainability cue neither had a significant influence on distance perceptions and construal level nor on buying intentions. This study offers valuable contributions to the sustainable consumption literature, as well as a theoretical basis for construal-level framing as applied in sustainable fashion branding.

Keywords: construal level theory, environmental vs social sustainability, online fashion shopping, sustainable fashion

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