Search results for: multivariate disaggregation rainfall model
16504 Evaluation of Turbulence Modelling of Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flow in a Venturi
Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu
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A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi
Procedia PDF Downloads 16316503 Evaluation of High Damping Rubber Considering Initial History through Dynamic Loading Test and Program Analysis
Authors: Kyeong Hoon Park, Taiji Mazuda
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High damping rubber (HDR) bearings are dissipating devices mainly used in seismic isolation systems and have a great damping performance. Although many studies have been conducted on the dynamic model of HDR bearings, few models can reflect phenomena such as dependency of experienced shear strain on initial history. In order to develop a model that can represent the dependency of experienced shear strain of HDR by Mullins effect, dynamic loading test was conducted using HDR specimen. The reaction of HDR was measured by applying a horizontal vibration using a hybrid actuator under a constant vertical load. Dynamic program analysis was also performed after dynamic loading test. The dynamic model applied in program analysis is a bilinear type double-target model. This model is modified from typical bilinear model. This model can express the nonlinear characteristics related to the initial history of HDR bearings. Based on the dynamic loading test and program analysis results, equivalent stiffness and equivalent damping ratio were calculated to evaluate the mechanical properties of HDR and the feasibility of the bilinear type double-target model was examined.Keywords: base-isolation, bilinear model, high damping rubber, loading test
Procedia PDF Downloads 11516502 Analysis of Reliability of Mining Shovel Using Weibull Model
Authors: Anurag Savarnya
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The reliability of the various parts of electric mining shovel has been assessed through the application of Weibull Model. The study was initiated to find reliability of components of electric mining shovel. The paper aims to optimize the reliability of components and increase the life cycle of component. A multilevel decomposition of the electric mining shovel was done and maintenance records were used to evaluate the failure data and appropriate system characterization was done to model the system in terms of reasonable number of components. The approach used develops a mathematical model to assess the reliability of the electric mining shovel components. The model can be used to predict reliability of components of the hydraulic mining shovel and system performance. Reliability is an inherent attribute to a system. When the life-cycle costs of a system are being analyzed, reliability plays an important role as a major driver of these costs and has considerable influence on system performance. It is an iterative process that begins with specification of reliability goals consistent with cost and performance objectives. The data were collected from an Indian open cast coal mine and the reliability of various components of the electric mining shovel has been assessed by following a Weibull Model.Keywords: reliability, Weibull model, electric mining shovel
Procedia PDF Downloads 50016501 Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods
Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow
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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method
Procedia PDF Downloads 34316500 Developing Fuzzy Logic Model for Reliability Estimation: Case Study
Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed
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The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA
Procedia PDF Downloads 60216499 Developing a Systems Dynamics Model for Security Management
Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen
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This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 41816498 Location Quotients Model in Turkey’s Provinces and Nuts II Regions
Authors: Semih Sözer
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One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development
Procedia PDF Downloads 41816497 Media Richness Perspective on Web 2.0 Usage for Knowledge Creation: The Case of the Cocoa Industry in Ghana
Authors: Albert Gyamfi
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Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0
Procedia PDF Downloads 32216496 Artificial Neural Network Based Approach for Estimation of Individual Vehicle Speed under Mixed Traffic Condition
Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh
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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic
Procedia PDF Downloads 37916495 Experimental Determination of Water Productivity of Improved Cassava Varieties Propagation under Rain-Fed Condition in Tropical Environment
Authors: Temitayo Abayomi Ewemoje, Isaac Olugbemiga Afolayan, Badmus Alao Tayo
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Researchers in developing countries have worked on improving cassava resistance to diseases and pests, high yielding and early maturity However, water management has received little or no attention as cassava cultivation in Sub-Saharan Africa depended on available precipitation (rain-fed condition). Therefore the need for water management in Agricultural crop production cannot be overemphasized. As other sectors compete with agricultural sector for fresh water (which is not readily available), there is need to increase water productivity in agricultural production. Experimentation was conducted to examine water use, growth and yield of improved cassava varieties under rain fed condition using Latin- square design with four replications. Four improved disease free stem cassava varieties TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) were planted and growth parameters of the varieties were monitored for 90 and 120 days after planting (DAP). Effective rainfall useful for the plant growth was calculated using CROPWAT8 for Windows. Results indicated TMS090581 was having the highest tuber yield and plant height while TMS30572 had highest number of nodes. Tuber stem and leaf water productivities at 90 and 120 DAP of TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) are (1.27 and 3.58, 1.44 and 2.35, 0.89 and 1.86, 1.64 and 3.77) kg/m3 (1.56 and 2.59, 1.95 and 2.02, 1.98 and 2.05, 1.95 and 2.18) kg/m3, and (1.34 and 2.32, 1.94 and 2.16, 1.57 and 1.40, 1.27 and 1.80) kg/m3 respectively. Based on tuber water productivity TMS090581 are recommended while TMS30572 are recommended based on leaf and stem productivity in water scarce regions.Experimentation was conducted to examine water use, growth and yield of improved cassava varieties under rain fed condition using Latin- square design with four replications. Four improved disease free stem cassava varieties TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) were planted and growth parameters of the varieties were monitored for 90 and 120 days after planting (DAP). Effective rainfall useful for the plant growth was calculated using CROPWAT8 for Windows. Results indicated TMS090581 was having the highest tuber yield and plant height while TMS30572 had the highest number of nodes. Tuber, stem and leaf water productivities at 90 and 120 DAP of TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) are (1.27 and 3.58, 1.44 and 2.35, 0.89 and 1.86, 1.64 and 3.77) kg/m3 (1.56 and 2.59, 1.95 and 2.02, 1.98 and 2.05, 1.95 and 2.18) kg/m3, and (1.34 and 2.32, 1.94 and 2.16, 1.57 and 1.40, 1.27 and 1.80) kg/m3 respectively. Based on tuber water productivity TMS090581 are recommended while TMS30572 are recommended based on leaf and stem productivity in water scarce regionsKeywords: improved TMS varieties, leaf productivity, rain-fed cassava production, stem productivity, tuber productivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 33116494 Economic Impact of Drought on Agricultural Society: Evidence Based on a Village Study in Maharashtra, India
Authors: Harshan Tee Pee
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Climate elements include surface temperatures, rainfall patterns, humidity, type and amount of cloudiness, air pressure and wind speed and direction. Change in one element can have an impact on the regional climate. The scientific predictions indicate that global climate change will increase the number of extreme events, leading to more frequent natural hazards. Global warming is likely to intensify the risk of drought in certain parts and also leading to increased rainfall in some other parts. Drought is a slow advancing disaster and creeping phenomenon– which accumulate slowly over a long period of time. Droughts are naturally linked with aridity. But droughts occur over most parts of the world (both wet and humid regions) and create severe impacts on agriculture, basic household welfare and ecosystems. Drought condition occurs at least every three years in India. India is one among the most vulnerable drought prone countries in the world. The economic impacts resulting from extreme environmental events and disasters are huge as a result of disruption in many economic activities. The focus of this paper is to develop a comprehensive understanding about the distributional impacts of disaster, especially impact of drought on agricultural production and income through a panel study (drought year and one year after the drought) in Raikhel village, Maharashtra, India. The major findings of the study indicate that cultivating area as well as the number of cultivating households reduced after the drought, indicating a shift in the livelihood- households moved from agriculture to non-agriculture. Decline in the gross cropped area and production of various crops depended on the negative income from these crops in the previous agriculture season. All the landholding categories of households except landlords had negative income in the drought year and also the income disparities between the households were higher in that year. In the drought year, the cost of cultivation was higher for all the landholding categories due to the increased cost for irrigation and input cost. In the drought year, agriculture products (50 per cent of the total products) were used for household consumption rather than selling in the market. It is evident from the study that livelihood which was based on natural resources became less attractive to the people to due to the risk involved in it and people were moving to less risk livelihood for their sustenance.Keywords: climate change, drought, agriculture economics, disaster impact
Procedia PDF Downloads 10616493 Modeling Heat-Related Mortality Based on Greenhouse Emissions in OECD Countries
Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru
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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD
Procedia PDF Downloads 33316492 Design Channel Non Persistent CSMA MAC Protocol Model for Complex Wireless Systems Based on SoC
Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa
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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA
Procedia PDF Downloads 41416491 A Deep Learning Based Integrated Model For Spatial Flood Prediction
Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath
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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding
Procedia PDF Downloads 13416490 Model of Transhipment and Routing Applied to the Cargo Sector in Small and Medium Enterprises of Bogotá, Colombia
Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca
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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation
Procedia PDF Downloads 21416489 A Model for Predicting Organic Compounds Concentration Change in Water Associated with Horizontal Hydraulic Fracturing
Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo
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Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds
Procedia PDF Downloads 21516488 Unified Structured Process for Health Analytics
Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo
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Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML
Procedia PDF Downloads 49916487 Accounting for Rice Productivity Heterogeneity in Ghana: The Two-Step Stochastic Metafrontier Approach
Authors: Franklin Nantui Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan
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Rice yields among agro-ecological zones are heterogeneous. Farmers, researchers and policy makers are making frantic efforts to bridge rice yield gaps between agro-ecological zones through the promotion of improved agricultural technologies (IATs). Farmers are also modifying these IATs and blending them with indigenous farming practices (IFPs) to form farmer innovation systems (FISs). Also, different metafrontier models have been used in estimating productivity performances and their drivers. This study used the two-step stochastic metafrontier model to estimate the productivity performances of rice farmers and their determining factors in GSZ, FSTZ and CSZ. The study used both primary and secondary data. Farmers in CSZ are the most technically efficient. Technical inefficiencies of farmers are negatively influenced by age, sex, household size, education years, extension visits, contract farming, access to improved seeds, access to irrigation, high rainfall amount, less lodging of rice, and well-coordinated and synergized adoption of technologies. Albeit farmers in CSZ are doing well in terms of rice yield, they still have the highest potential of increasing rice yield since they had the lowest TGR. It is recommended that government through the ministry of food and agriculture, development partners and individual private companies promote the adoption of IATs as well as educate farmers on how to coordinate and synergize the adoption of the whole package. Contract farming concept and agricultural extension intensification should be vigorously pursued to the latter.Keywords: efficiency, farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, two-step stochastic metafrontier approach
Procedia PDF Downloads 25716486 The Principle Probabilities of Space-Distance Resolution for a Monostatic Radar and Realization in Cylindrical Array
Authors: Anatoly D. Pluzhnikov, Elena N. Pribludova, Alexander G. Ryndyk
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In conjunction with the problem of the target selection on a clutter background, the analysis of the scanning rate influence on the spatial-temporal signal structure, the generalized multivariate correlation function and the quality of the resolution with the increase pulse repetition frequency is made. The possibility of the object space-distance resolution, which is conditioned by the range-to-angle conversion with an increased scanning rate, is substantiated. The calculations for the real cylindrical array at high scanning rate are presented. The high scanning rate let to get the signal to noise improvement of the order of 10 dB for the space-time signal processing.Keywords: antenna pattern, array, signal processing, spatial resolution
Procedia PDF Downloads 17116485 Analysis of the Temperature Dependence of Local Avalanche Compact Model for Bipolar Transistors
Authors: Robert Setekera, Ramses van der Toorn
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We present an extensive analysis of the temperature dependence of the local avalanche model used in most of the modern compact models for bipolar transistors. This local avalanche model uses the Chynoweth's empirical law for ionization coefficient to define the generation of the avalanche current in terms of the local electric field. We carry out the model analysis using DC-measurements taken on both Si and advanced SiGe bipolar transistors. For the advanced industrial SiGe-HBTs, we consider both high-speed and high-power devices (both NPN and PNP transistors). The limitations of the local avalanche model in modeling the temperature dependence of the avalanche current mostly in the weak avalanche region are demonstrated. In addition, the model avalanche parameters are analyzed to see if they are in agreement with semiconductor device physics.Keywords: avalanche multiplication, avalanche current, bipolar transistors, compact modeling, electric field, impact ionization, local avalanche
Procedia PDF Downloads 61216484 Special Case of Trip Distribution Model and Its Use for Estimation of Detailed Transport Demand in the Czech Republic
Authors: Jiri Dufek
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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities
Procedia PDF Downloads 11616483 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods
Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk
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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate
Procedia PDF Downloads 36316482 Simulation of Flow Patterns in Vertical Slot Fishway with Cylindrical Obstacles
Authors: Mohsen Solimani Babarsad, Payam Taheri
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Numerical results of vertical slot fishways with and without cylinders study are presented. The simulated results and the measured data in the fishways are compared to validate the application of the model. This investigation is made using FLUENT V.6.3, a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver. Advantages of using these types of numerical tools are the possibility of avoiding the St.-Venant equations’ limitations, and turbulence can be modeled by means of different models such as the k-ε model. In general, the present study has demonstrated that the CFD model could be useful for analysis and design of vertical slot fishways with cylinders.Keywords: slot Fish-way, CFD, k-ε model, St.-Venant equations’
Procedia PDF Downloads 35116481 Frequency Selective Filters for Estimating the Equivalent Circuit Parameters of Li-Ion Battery
Authors: Arpita Mondal, Aurobinda Routray, Sreeraj Puravankara, Rajashree Biswas
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The most difficult part of designing a battery management system (BMS) is battery modeling. A good battery model can capture the dynamics which helps in energy management, by accurate model-based state estimation algorithms. So far the most suitable and fruitful model is the equivalent circuit model (ECM). However, in real-time applications, the model parameters are time-varying, changes with current, temperature, state of charge (SOC), and aging of the battery and this make a great impact on the performance of the model. Therefore, to increase the equivalent circuit model performance, the parameter estimation has been carried out in the frequency domain. The battery is a very complex system, which is associated with various chemical reactions and heat generation. Therefore, it’s very difficult to select the optimal model structure. As we know, if the model order is increased, the model accuracy will be improved automatically. However, the higher order model will face the tendency of over-parameterization and unfavorable prediction capability, while the model complexity will increase enormously. In the time domain, it becomes difficult to solve higher order differential equations as the model order increases. This problem can be resolved by frequency domain analysis, where the overall computational problems due to ill-conditioning reduce. In the frequency domain, several dominating frequencies can be found in the input as well as output data. The selective frequency domain estimation has been carried out, first by estimating the frequencies of the input and output by subspace decomposition, then by choosing the specific bands from the most dominating to the least, while carrying out the least-square, recursive least square and Kalman Filter based parameter estimation. In this paper, a second order battery model consisting of three resistors, two capacitors, and one SOC controlled voltage source has been chosen. For model identification and validation hybrid pulse power characterization (HPPC) tests have been carried out on a 2.6 Ah LiFePO₄ battery.Keywords: equivalent circuit model, frequency estimation, parameter estimation, subspace decomposition
Procedia PDF Downloads 13716480 Designing Equivalent Model of Floating Gate Transistor
Authors: Birinderjit Singh Kalyan, Inderpreet Kaur, Balwinder Singh Sohi
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In this paper, an equivalent model for floating gate transistor has been proposed. Using the floating gate voltage value, capacitive coupling coefficients has been found at different bias conditions. The amount of charge present on the gate has been then calculated using the transient models of hot electron programming and Fowler-Nordheim Tunnelling. The proposed model can be extended to the transient conditions as well. The SPICE equivalent model is designed and current-voltage characteristics and Transfer characteristics are comparatively analysed. The dc current-voltage characteristics, as well as dc transfer characteristics, have been plotted for an FGMOS with W/L=0.25μm/0.375μm, the inter-poly capacitance of 0.8fF for both programmed and erased states. The Comparative analysis has been made between the present model and capacitive coefficient coupling methods which were already available.Keywords: FGMOS, floating gate transistor, capacitive coupling coefficient, SPICE model
Procedia PDF Downloads 53716479 Effects of Merging Personal and Social Responsibility with Sports Education Model on Students' Game Performance and Responsibility
Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Wei-Ting Hsu
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The purposes of the study were to understand these topics as follows: 1. To explore the effect of merging teaching personal and social responsibility (TPSR) with sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 2. To explore the effect of sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 3. To compare the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' game performance and responsibility. The participants include three high school physical education teachers and six physical education classes. Every teacher teaches an experimental group and a control group. The participants had 121 students, including 65 students in the experimental group and 56 students in the control group. The research methods had game performance assessment, questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments include personal and social responsibility questionnaire and game performance assessment instrument. Paired t-test test and MANCOVA were used to test the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' learning performance. 1) "Merging TPSR with sports education model" showed significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with self-direction, helping others, cooperation. 2) "Sports education model" also had significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with effort, self-direction, helping others. 3.) There was no significant difference in game performance and responsibilities between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model". 4)."Merging TPSR with sports education model" significantly improve learning atmosphere and peer relationships, it may be developed in the physical education curriculum. The conclusions were as follows: Both "Merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" can help improve students' responsibility and game performance. However, "Merging TPSR with sports education model" can reduce the competitive atmosphere in highly intensive games between students. The curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model is a good approach for moral character education.Keywords: curriculum and teaching model, sports self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, character education
Procedia PDF Downloads 30916478 New Estimation in Autoregressive Models with Exponential White Noise by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm
Authors: Suparman Suparman
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A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Procedia PDF Downloads 35016477 Numerical Pricing of Financial Options under Irrational Exercise Times and Regime-Switching Models
Authors: Mohammad Saber Rohi, Saghar Heidari
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In this paper, we studied the pricing problem of American options under a regime-switching model with the possibility of a non-optimal exercise policy (early or late exercise time) which is called an irrational strategy. For this, we consider a Markovmodulated model for the dynamic of the underlying asset as an alternative model to the classical Balck-Scholes-Merton model (BSM) and an intensity-based model for the irrational strategy, to provide more realistic results for American option prices under the irrational behavior in real financial markets. Applying a partial differential equation (PDE) approach, the pricing problem of American options under regime-switching models can be formulated as coupled PDEs. To solve the resulting systems of PDEs in this model, we apply a finite element method as the numerical solving procedure to the resulting variational inequality. Under some appropriate assumptions, we establish the stability of the method and compare its accuracy to some recent works to illustrate the suitability of the proposed model and the accuracy of the applied numerical method for the pricing problem of American options under the regime-switching model with irrational behaviors.Keywords: irrational exercise strategy, rationality parameter, regime-switching model, American option, finite element method, variational inequality
Procedia PDF Downloads 6416476 Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Liquefaction of Wood and It's Model Components Using a Modified Multistage Shrinking-Core Model
Authors: K. G. R. M. Jayathilake, S. Rudra
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Wood degradation in hot compressed water is modeled with a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code using cellulose, xylan, and lignin as model compounds. Model compounds are reacted under catalyst-free conditions in a temperature range from 250 to 370 °C. Using a simplified reaction scheme where water soluble products, methanol soluble products, char like compounds and gas are generated through intermediates with each model compound. A modified multistage shrinking core model is developed to simulate particle degradation. In the modified shrinking core model, each model compound is hydrolyzed in separate stages. Cellulose is decomposed to glucose/oligomers before producing degradation products. Xylan is decomposed through xylose and then to degradation products where lignin is decomposed into soluble products before producing the total guaiacol, organic carbon (TOC) and then char and gas. Hydrolysis of each model compound is used as the main reaction of the process. Diffusion of water monomers to the particle surface to initiate hydrolysis and dissolution of the products in water is given importance during the modeling process. In the developed model the temperature variation depends on the Arrhenius relationship. Kinetic parameters from the literature are used for the mathematical model. Meanwhile, limited initial fast reaction kinetic data limit the development of more accurate CFD models. Liquefaction results of the CFD model are analyzed and validated using the experimental data available in the literature where it shows reasonable agreement.Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, liquefaction, shrinking-core, wood
Procedia PDF Downloads 10916475 The Effects of Seasonal Variation on the Microbial-N Flow to the Small Intestine and Prediction of Feed Intake in Grazing Karayaka Sheep
Authors: Mustafa Salman, Nurcan Cetinkaya, Zehra Selcuk, Bugra Genc
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The objectives of the present study were to estimate the microbial-N flow to the small intestine and to predict the digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) in grazing Karayaka sheep based on urinary excretion of purine derivatives (xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, and allantoin) by the use of spot urine sampling under field conditions. In the trial, 10 Karayaka sheep from 2 to 3 years of age were used. The animals were grazed in a pasture for ten months and fed with concentrate and vetch plus oat hay for the other two months (January and February) indoors. Highly significant linear and cubic relationships (P<0.001) were found among months for purine derivatives index, purine derivatives excretion, purine derivatives absorption, microbial-N and DOMI. Through urine sampling and the determination of levels of excreted urinary PD and Purine Derivatives / Creatinine ratio (PDC index), microbial-N values were estimated and they indicated that the protein nutrition of the sheep was insufficient. In conclusion, the prediction of protein nutrition of sheep under the field conditions may be possible with the use of spot urine sampling, urinary excreted PD and PDC index. The mean purine derivative levels in spot urine samples from sheep were highest in June, July and October. Protein nutrition of pastured sheep may be affected by weather changes, including rainfall. Spot urine sampling may useful in modeling the feed consumption of pasturing sheep. However, further studies are required under different field conditions with different breeds of sheep to develop spot urine sampling as a model.Keywords: Karayaka sheep, spot sampling, urinary purine derivatives, PDC index, microbial-N, feed intake
Procedia PDF Downloads 522