Search results for: generating
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 994

Search results for: generating

94 Design and Biomechanical Analysis of a Transtibial Prosthesis for Cyclists of the Colombian Team Paralympic

Authors: Jhonnatan Eduardo Zamudio Palacios, Oscar Leonardo Mosquera Dussan, Daniel Guzman Perez, Daniel Alfonso Botero Rosas, Oscar Fabian Rubiano Espinosa, Jose Antonio Garcia Torres, Ivan Dario Chavarro, Ivan Ramiro Rodriguez Camacho, Jaime Orlando Rodriguez

Abstract:

The training of cilsitas with some type of disability finds in the technological development an indispensable ally, generating every day advances to contribute to the quality of life allowing to maximize the capacities of the athletes. The performance of a cyclist depends on physiological and biomechanical factors, such as aerodynamic profile, bicycle measurements, connecting rod length, pedaling systems, type of competition, among others. This study particularly focuses on the description of the dynamic model of a transtibial prosthesis for Paralympic cyclists. To make the model, two points are chosen: in the radius centers of rotation of the plate and pinion of the track bicycle. The parametric scheme of the track bike represents a model of 6 degrees of freedom due to the displacement in X - Y of each of the reference points of the angles of the curve profile β, cant of the velodrome α and the angle of rotation of the connecting rod φ. The force exerted on the crank of the bicycle varies according to the angles of the curve profile β, the velodrome cant of α and the angle of rotation of the crank φ. The behavior is analyzed through the Matlab R2015a software. The average strength that a cyclist exerts on the cranks of a bicycle is 1,607.1 N, the Paralympic cyclist must perform a force on each crank about 803.6 N. Once the maximum force associated with the movement has been determined, it is continued to the dynamic modeling of the transtibial prosthesis that represents a model of 6 degrees of freedom with displacement in X - Y in relation to the angles of rotation of the hip π, knee γ and ankle λ. Subsequently, an analysis of the kinematic behavior of the prosthesis was carried out by means of SolidWorks 2017 and Matlab R2015a, which was used to model and analyze the variation of the hip angles π, knee γ and ankle of the λ prosthesis. The reaction forces generated in the prosthesis were performed on the ankle of the prosthesis, performing the summation of forces on the X and Y axes. The same analysis was then applied to the tibia of the prosthesis and the socket. The reaction force of the parts of the prosthesis varies according to the hip angles π, knee γ and ankle of the prosthesis λ. Therefore, it can be deduced that the maximum forces experienced by the ankle of the prosthesis is 933.6 N on the X axis and 2.160.5 N on the Y axis. Finally, it is calculated that the maximum forces experienced by the tibia and the socket of the transtibial prosthesis in high performance competitions is 3.266 N on the X axis and 1.357 N on the Y axis. In conclusion, it can be said that the performance of the cyclist depends on several physiological factors, linked to biomechanics of training. The influence of biomechanical factors such as aerodynamics, bicycle measurements, connecting rod length, or non-circular pedaling systems on the cyclist performance.

Keywords: biomechanics, dynamic model, paralympic cyclist, transtibial prosthesis

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93 Preliminary Study of Water-Oil Separation Process in Three-Phase Separators Using Factorial Experimental Designs and Simulation

Authors: Caroline M. B. De Araujo, Helenise A. Do Nascimento, Claudia J. Da S. Cavalcanti, Mauricio A. Da Motta Sobrinho, Maria F. Pimentel

Abstract:

Oil production is often followed by the joint production of water and gas. During the journey up to the surface, due to severe conditions of temperature and pressure, the mixing between these three components normally occurs. Thus, the three phases separation process must be one of the first steps to be performed after crude oil extraction, where the water-oil separation is the most complex and important step, since the presence of water into the process line can increase corrosion and hydrates formation. A wide range of methods can be applied in order to proceed with oil-water separation, being more commonly used: flotation, hydrocyclones, as well as the three phase separator vessels. Facing what has been presented so far, it is the aim of this paper to study a system consisting of a three-phase separator, evaluating the influence of three variables: temperature, working pressure and separator type, for two types of oil (light and heavy), by performing two factorial design plans 23, in order to find the best operating condition. In this case, the purpose is to obtain the greatest oil flow rate in the product stream (m3/h) as well as the lowest percentage of water in the oil stream. The simulation of the three-phase separator was performed using Aspen Hysys®2006 simulation software in stationary mode, and the evaluation of the factorial experimental designs was performed using the software Statistica®. From the general analysis of the four normal probability plots of effects obtained, it was observed that interaction effects of two and three factors did not show statistical significance at 95% confidence, since all the values were very close to zero. Similarly, the main effect "separator type" did not show significant statistical influence in any situation. As in this case, it has been assumed that the volumetric flow of water, oil and gas were equal in the inlet stream, the effect separator type, in fact, may not be significant for the proposed system. Nevertheless, the main effect “temperature” was significant for both responses (oil flow rate and mass fraction of water in the oil stream), considering both light and heavy oil, so that the best operation condition occurs with the temperature at its lowest level (30oC), since the higher the temperature, the liquid oil components pass into the vapor phase, going to the gas stream. Furthermore, the higher the temperature, the higher the formation water vapor, so that ends up going into the lighter stream (oil stream), making the separation process more difficult. Regarding the “working pressure”, this effect showed to be significant only for the oil flow rate, so that the best operation condition occurs with the pressure at its highest level (9bar), since a higher operating pressure, in this case, indicated a lower pressure drop inside the vessel, generating lower level of turbulence inside the separator. In conclusion, the best-operating condition obtained for the proposed system, at the studied range, occurs for temperature is at its lowest level and the working pressure is at its highest level.

Keywords: factorial experimental design, oil production, simulation, three-phase separator

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92 Material Handling Equipment Selection Using Fuzzy AHP Approach

Authors: Priyanka Verma, Vijaya Dixit, Rishabh Bajpai

Abstract:

This research paper is aimed at selecting appropriate material handling equipment among the given choices so that the automation level in material handling can be enhanced. This work is a practical case scenario of material handling systems in consumer electronic appliances manufacturing organization. The choices of material handling equipment among which the decision has to be made are Automated Guided Vehicle’s (AGV), Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR), Overhead Conveyer’s (OC) and Battery Operated Trucks/Vehicle’s (BOT). There is a need of attaining a certain level of automation in order to reduce human interventions in the organization. This requirement of achieving certain degree of automation can be attained by material handling equipment’s mentioned above. The main motive for selecting above equipment’s for study was solely based on corporate financial strategy of investment and return obtained through that investment made in stipulated time framework. Since the low cost automation with respect to material handling devices has to be achieved hence these equipment’s were selected. Investment to be done on each unit of this equipment is less than 20 lakh rupees (INR) and the recovery period is less than that of five years. Fuzzy analytic hierarchic process (FAHP) is applied here for selecting equipment where the four choices are evaluated on basis of four major criteria’s and 13 sub criteria’s, and are prioritized on the basis of weight obtained. The FAHP used here make use of triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN). The inability of the traditional AHP in order to deal with the subjectiveness and impreciseness in the pair-wise comparison process has been improved in the FAHP. The range of values for general rating purposes for all decision making parameters is kept between 0 and 1 on the basis of expert opinions captured on shop floor. These experts were familiar with operating environment and shop floor activity control. Instead of generating exact value the FAHP generates the ranges of values to accommodate the uncertainty in decision-making process. The four major criteria’s selected for the evaluation of choices of material handling equipment’s available are materials, technical capabilities, cost and other features. The thirteen sub criteria’s listed under these following four major criteria’s are weighing capacity, load per hour, material compatibility, capital cost, operating cost and maintenance cost, speed, distance moved, space required, frequency of trips, control required, safety and reliability issues. The key finding shows that among the four major criteria selected, cost is emerged as the most important criteria and is one of the key decision making aspect on the basis of which material equipment selection is based on. While further evaluating the choices of equipment available for each sub criteria it is found that AGV scores the highest weight in most of the sub-criteria’s. On carrying out complete analysis the research shows that AGV is the best material handling equipment suiting all decision criteria’s selected in FAHP and therefore it is beneficial for the organization to carry out automated material handling in the facility using AGV’s.

Keywords: fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), material handling equipment, subjectiveness, triangular fuzzy number (TFN)

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91 Comparative Appraisal of Polymeric Matrices Synthesis and Characterization Based on Maleic versus Itaconic Anhydride and 3,9-Divinyl-2,4,8,10-Tetraoxaspiro[5.5]-Undecane

Authors: Iordana Neamtu, Aurica P. Chiriac, Loredana E. Nita, Mihai Asandulesa, Elena Butnaru, Nita Tudorachi, Alina Diaconu

Abstract:

In the last decade, the attention of many researchers is focused on the synthesis of innovative “intelligent” copolymer structures with great potential for different uses. This considerable scientific interest is stimulated by possibility of the significant improvements in physical, mechanical, thermal and other important specific properties of these materials. Functionalization of polymer in synthesis by designing a suitable composition with the desired properties and applications is recognized as a valuable tool. In this work is presented a comparative study of the properties of the new copolymers poly(maleic anhydride maleic-co-3,9-divinyl-2,4,8,10-tetraoxaspiro[5.5]undecane) and poly(itaconic-anhydride-co-3,9-divinyl-2,4,8,10-tetraoxaspiro[5.5]undecane) obtained by radical polymerization in dioxane, using 2,2′-azobis(2-methylpropionitrile) as free-radical initiator. The comonomers are able for generating special effects as for example network formation, biodegradability and biocompatibility, gel formation capacity, binding properties, amphiphilicity, good oxidative and thermal stability, good film formers, and temperature and pH sensitivity. Maleic anhydride (MA) and also the isostructural analog itaconic anhydride (ITA) as polyfunctional monomers are widely used in the synthesis of reactive macromolecules with linear, hyperbranched and self & assembled structures to prepare high performance engineering, bioengineering and nano engineering materials. The incorporation of spiroacetal groups in polymer structures improves the solubility and the adhesive properties, induce good oxidative and thermal stability, are formers of good fiber or films with good flexibility and tensile strength. Also, the spiroacetal rings induce interactions on ether oxygen such as hydrogen bonds or coordinate bonds with other functional groups determining bulkiness and stiffness. The synthesized copolymers are analyzed by DSC, oscillatory and rotational rheological measurements and dielectric spectroscopy with the aim of underlying the heating behavior, solution viscosity as a function of shear rate and temperature and to investigate the relaxation processes and the motion of functional groups present in side chain around the main chain or bonds of the side chain. Acknowledgments This work was financially supported by the grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research, CNCS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-132/2014 “Magnetic biomimetic supports as alternative strategy for bone tissue engineering and repair’’ (MAGBIOTISS).

Keywords: Poly(maleic anhydride-co-3, 9-divinyl-2, 4, 8, 10-tetraoxaspiro (5.5)undecane); Poly(itaconic anhydride-co-3, 9-divinyl-2, 4, 8, 10-tetraoxaspiro (5.5)undecane); DSC; oscillatory and rotational rheological analysis; dielectric spectroscopy

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90 Lignin Valorization: Techno-Economic Analysis of Three Lignin Conversion Routes

Authors: Iris Vural Gursel, Andrea Ramirez

Abstract:

Effective utilization of lignin is an important mean for developing economically profitable biorefineries. Current literature suggests that large amounts of lignin will become available in second generation biorefineries. New conversion technologies will, therefore, be needed to carry lignin transformation well beyond combustion to produce energy, but towards high-value products such as chemicals and transportation fuels. In recent years, significant progress on catalysis has been made to improve transformation of lignin, and new catalytic processes are emerging. In this work, a techno-economic assessment of two of these novel conversion routes and comparison with more established lignin pyrolysis route were made. The aim is to provide insights into the potential performance and potential hotspots in order to guide the experimental research and ease the commercialization by early identifying cost drivers, strengths, and challenges. The lignin conversion routes selected for detailed assessment were: (non-catalytic) lignin pyrolysis as the benchmark, direct hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of lignin and hydrothermal lignin depolymerisation. Products generated were mixed oxygenated aromatic monomers (MOAMON), light organics, heavy organics, and char. For the technical assessment, a basis design followed by process modelling in Aspen was done using experimental yields. A design capacity of 200 kt/year lignin feed was chosen that is equivalent to a 1 Mt/y scale lignocellulosic biorefinery. The downstream equipment was modelled to achieve the separation of the product streams defined. For determining external utility requirement, heat integration was considered and when possible gasses were combusted to cover heating demand. The models made were used in generating necessary data on material and energy flows. Next, an economic assessment was carried out by estimating operating and capital costs. Return on investment (ROI) and payback period (PBP) were used as indicators. The results of the process modelling indicate that series of separation steps are required. The downstream processing was found especially demanding in the hydrothermal upgrading process due to the presence of significant amount of unconverted lignin (34%) and water. Also, external utility requirements were found to be high. Due to the complex separations, hydrothermal upgrading process showed the highest capital cost (50 M€ more than benchmark). Whereas operating costs were found the highest for the direct HDO process (20 M€/year more than benchmark) due to the use of hydrogen. Because of high yields to valuable heavy organics (32%) and MOAMON (24%), direct HDO process showed the highest ROI (12%) and the shortest PBP (5 years). This process is found feasible with a positive net present value. However, it is very sensitive to the prices used in the calculation. The assessments at this stage are associated with large uncertainties. Nevertheless, they are useful for comparing alternatives and identifying whether a certain process should be given further consideration. Among the three processes investigated here, the direct HDO process was seen to be the most promising.

Keywords: biorefinery, economic assessment, lignin conversion, process design

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89 Climate Change and Health: Scoping Review of Scientific Literature 1990-2015

Authors: Niamh Herlihy, Helen Fischer, Rainer Sauerborn, Anneliese Depoux, Avner Bar-Hen, Antoine Flauhault, Stefanie Schütte

Abstract:

In the recent decades, there has been an increase in the number of publications both in the scientific and grey literature on the potential health risks associated with climate change. Though interest in climate change and health is growing, there are still many gaps to adequately assess our future health needs in a warmer world. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be a key step in inciting the changes necessary to decelerate global warming and to target new strategies to mitigate the consequences on health systems. A long term and broad overview of existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. We conducted a scoping review of published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health from two large databases, PubMed and Web of Science, between 1990 and 2015. A scoping review allowed for a broad analysis of this complex topic on a meta-level as opposed to a thematically refined literature review. A detailed search strategy including specific climate and health terminology was used to search the two databases. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied in order to capture the most relevant literature on the human health impact of climate change within the chosen timeframe. Two reviewers screened the papers independently and any differences arising were resolved by a third party. Data was extracted, categorized and coded both manually and using R software. Analytics and infographics were developed from results. There were 7269 articles identified between the two databases following the removal of duplicates. After screening of the articles by both reviewers 3751 were included. As expected, preliminary results indicate that the number of publications on the topic has increased over time. Geographically, the majority of publications address the impact of climate change and health in Europe and North America, This is particularly alarming given that countries in the Global South will bear the greatest health burden. Concerning health outcomes, infectious diseases, particularly dengue fever and other mosquito transmitted infections are the most frequently cited. We highlight research gaps in certain areas e.g climate migration and mental health issues. We are developing a database of the identified climate change and health publications and are compiling a report for publication and dissemination of the findings. As health is a major co-beneficiary to climate change mitigation strategies, our results may serve as a useful source of information for research funders and investors when considering future research needs as well as the cost-effectiveness of climate change strategies. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate change and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, health, review, mapping

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88 Evaluation in Vitro and in Silico of Pleurotus ostreatus Capacity to Decrease the Amount of Low-Density Polyethylene Microplastics Present in Water Sample from the Middle Basin of the Magdalena River, Colombia

Authors: Loren S. Bernal., Catalina Castillo, Carel E. Carvajal, José F. Ibla

Abstract:

Plastic pollution, specifically microplastics, has become a significant issue in aquatic ecosystems worldwide. The large amount of plastic waste carried by water tributaries has resulted in the accumulation of microplastics in water bodies. The polymer aging process caused by environmental influences such as photodegradation and chemical degradation of additives leads to polymer embrittlement and properties change that require degradation or reduction procedures in rivers. However, there is a lack of such procedures for freshwater entities that develop over extended periods. The aim of this study is evaluate the potential of Pleurotus ostreatus a fungus, in reducing lowdensity polyethylene microplastics present in freshwater samples collected from the middle basin of the Magdalena River in Colombia. The study aims to evaluate this process both in vitro and in silico by identifying the growth capacity of Pleurotus ostreatus in the presence of microplastics and identifying the most likely interactions of Pleurotus ostreatus enzymes and their affinity energies. The study follows an engineering development methodology applied on an experimental basis. The in vitro evaluation protocol applied in this study focused on the growth capacity of Pleurotus ostreatus on microplastics using enzymatic inducers. In terms of in silico evaluation, molecular simulations were conducted using the Autodock 1.5.7 program to calculate interaction energies. The molecular dynamics were evaluated by using the myPresto Portal and GROMACS program to calculate radius of gyration and Energies.The results of the study showed that Pleurotus ostreatus has the potential to degrade low-density polyethylene microplastics. The in vitro evaluation revealed the adherence of Pleurotus ostreatus to LDPE using scanning electron microscopy. The best results were obtained with enzymatic inducers as a MnSO4 generating the activation of laccase or manganese peroxidase enzymes in the degradation process. The in silico modelling demonstrated that Pleurotus ostreatus was able to interact with the microplastics present in LDPE, showing affinity energies in molecular docking and molecular dynamics shown a minimum energy and the representative radius of gyration between each enzyme and its substract. The study contributes to the development of bioremediation processes for the removal of microplastics from freshwater sources using the fungus Pleurotus ostreatus. The in silico study provides insights into the affinity energies of Pleurotus ostreatus microplastic degrading enzymes and their interaction with low-density polyethylene. The study demonstrated that Pleurotus ostreatus can interact with LDPE microplastics, making it a good agent for the development of bioremediation processes that aid in the recovery of freshwater sources. The results of the study suggested that bioremediation could be a promising approach to reduce microplastics in freshwater systems.

Keywords: bioremediation, in silico modelling, microplastics, Pleurotus ostreatus

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87 Multimodal Biometric Cryptography Based Authentication in Cloud Environment to Enhance Information Security

Authors: D. Pugazhenthi, B. Sree Vidya

Abstract:

Cloud computing is one of the emerging technologies that enables end users to use the services of cloud on ‘pay per usage’ strategy. This technology grows in a fast pace and so is its security threat. One among the various services provided by cloud is storage. In this service, security plays a vital factor for both authenticating legitimate users and protection of information. This paper brings in efficient ways of authenticating users as well as securing information on the cloud. Initial phase proposed in this paper deals with an authentication technique using multi-factor and multi-dimensional authentication system with multi-level security. Unique identification and slow intrusive formulates an advanced reliability on user-behaviour based biometrics than conventional means of password authentication. By biometric systems, the accounts are accessed only by a legitimate user and not by a nonentity. The biometric templates employed here do not include single trait but multiple, viz., iris and finger prints. The coordinating stage of the authentication system functions on Ensemble Support Vector Machine (SVM) and optimization by assembling weights of base SVMs for SVM ensemble after individual SVM of ensemble is trained by the Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm (AFSA). Thus it helps in generating a user-specific secure cryptographic key of the multimodal biometric template by fusion process. Data security problem is averted and enhanced security architecture is proposed using encryption and decryption system with double key cryptography based on Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) for data storing and retrieval in cloud computing . The proposing scheme aims to protect the records from hackers by arresting the breaking of cipher text to original text. This improves the authentication performance that the proposed double cryptographic key scheme is capable of providing better user authentication and better security which distinguish between the genuine and fake users. Thus, there are three important modules in this proposed work such as 1) Feature extraction, 2) Multimodal biometric template generation and 3) Cryptographic key generation. The extraction of the feature and texture properties from the respective fingerprint and iris images has been done initially. Finally, with the help of fuzzy neural network and symmetric cryptography algorithm, the technique of double key encryption technique has been developed. As the proposed approach is based on neural networks, it has the advantage of not being decrypted by the hacker even though the data were hacked already. The results prove that authentication process is optimal and stored information is secured.

Keywords: artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA), biometric authentication, decryption, encryption, fingerprint, fusion, fuzzy neural network (FNN), iris, multi-modal, support vector machine classification

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86 Decentralized Peak-Shaving Strategies for Integrated Domestic Batteries

Authors: Corentin Jankowiak, Aggelos Zacharopoulos, Caterina Brandoni

Abstract:

In a context of increasing stress put on the electricity network by the decarbonization of many sectors, energy storage is likely to be the key mitigating element, by acting as a buffer between production and demand. In particular, the highest potential for storage is when connected closer to the loads. Yet, low voltage storage struggles to penetrate the market at a large scale due to the novelty and complexity of the solution, and the competitive advantage of fossil fuel-based technologies regarding regulations. Strong and reliable numerical simulations are required to show the benefits of storage located near loads and promote its development. The present study was restrained from excluding aggregated control of storage: it is assumed that the storage units operate independently to one another without exchanging information – as is currently mostly the case. A computationally light battery model is presented in detail and validated by direct comparison with a domestic battery operating in real conditions. This model is then used to develop Peak-Shaving (PS) control strategies as it is the decentralized service from which beneficial impacts are most likely to emerge. The aggregation of flatter, peak- shaved consumption profiles is likely to lead to flatter and arbitraged profile at higher voltage layers. Furthermore, voltage fluctuations can be expected to decrease if spikes of individual consumption are reduced. The crucial part to achieve PS lies in the charging pattern: peaks depend on the switching on and off of appliances in the dwelling by the occupants and are therefore impossible to predict accurately. A performant PS strategy must, therefore, include a smart charge recovery algorithm that can ensure enough energy is present in the battery in case it is needed without generating new peaks by charging the unit. Three categories of PS algorithms are introduced in detail. First, using a constant threshold or power rate for charge recovery, followed by algorithms using the State Of Charge (SOC) as a decision variable. Finally, using a load forecast – of which the impact of the accuracy is discussed – to generate PS. A performance metrics was defined in order to quantitatively evaluate their operating regarding peak reduction, total energy consumption, and self-consumption of domestic photovoltaic generation. The algorithms were tested on load profiles with a 1-minute granularity over a 1-year period, and their performance was assessed regarding these metrics. The results show that constant charging threshold or power are far from optimal: a certain value is not likely to fit the variability of a residential profile. As could be expected, forecast-based algorithms show the highest performance. However, these depend on the accuracy of the forecast. On the other hand, SOC based algorithms also present satisfying performance, making them a strong alternative when the reliable forecast is not available.

Keywords: decentralised control, domestic integrated batteries, electricity network performance, peak-shaving algorithm

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85 Selection and Preparation of High Performance, Natural and Cost-Effective Hydrogel as a Bio-Ink for 3D Bio-Printing and Organ on Chip Applications

Authors: Rawan Ashraf, Ahmed E. Gomaa, Gehan Safwat, Ayman Diab

Abstract:

Background: Three-dimensional (3D) bio-printing has become a versatile and powerful method for generating a variety of biological constructs, including bone or extracellular matrix scaffolds endo- or epithelial, muscle tissue, as well as organoids. Aim of the study: Fabricate a low cost DIY 3D bio-printer to produce 3D bio-printed products such as anti-microbial packaging or multi-organs on chips. We demonstrate the alignment between two types of 3D printer technology (3D Bio-printer and DLP) on Multi-organ-on-a-chip (multi-OoC) devices fabrication. Methods: First, Design and Fabrication of the Syringe Unit for Modification of an Off-the-Shelf 3D Printer, then Preparation of Hydrogel based on natural polymers Sodium Alginate and Gelatin, followed by acquisition of the cell suspension, then modeling the desired 3D structure. Preparation for 3D printing, then Cell-free and cell-laden hydrogels went through the printing process at room temperature under sterile conditions and finally post printing curing process and studying the printed structure regards physical and chemical characteristics. The hard scaffold of the Organ on chip devices was designed and fabricated using the DLP-3D printer, following similar approaches as the Microfluidics system fabrication. Results: The fabricated Bio-Ink was based onHydrogel polymer mix of sodium alginate and gelatin 15% to 0.5%, respectively. Later the 3D printing process was conducted using a higher percentage of alginate-based hydrogels because of it viscosity and the controllable crosslinking, unlike the thermal crosslinking of Gelatin. The hydrogels were colored to simulate the representation of two types of cells. The adaption of the hard scaffold, whether for the Microfluidics system or the hard-tissues, has been acquired by the DLP 3D printers with fabricated natural bioactive essential oils that contain antimicrobial activity, followed by printing in Situ three complex layers of soft-hydrogel as a cell-free Bio-Ink to simulate the real-life tissue engineering process. The final product was a proof of concept for a rapid 3D cell culturing approaches that uses an engineered hard scaffold along with soft-tissues, thus, several applications were offered as products of the current prototype, including the Organ-On-Chip as a successful integration between DLP and 3D bioprinter. Conclusion: Multiple designs for the organ-on-a-chip (multi-OoC) devices have been acquired in our study with main focus on the low cost fabrication of such technology and the potential to revolutionize human health research and development. We describe circumstances in which multi-organ models are useful after briefly examining the requirement for full multi-organ models with a systemic component. Following that, we took a look at the current multi-OoC platforms, such as integrated body-on-a-chip devices and modular techniques that use linked organ-specific modules.

Keywords: 3d bio-printer, hydrogel, multi-organ on chip, bio-inks

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84 3D Design of Orthotic Braces and Casts in Medical Applications Using Microsoft Kinect Sensor

Authors: Sanjana S. Mallya, Roshan Arvind Sivakumar

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Orthotics is the branch of medicine that deals with the provision and use of artificial casts or braces to alter the biomechanical structure of the limb and provide support for the limb. Custom-made orthoses provide more comfort and can correct issues better than those available over-the-counter. However, they are expensive and require intricate modelling of the limb. Traditional methods of modelling involve creating a plaster of Paris mould of the limb. Lately, CAD/CAM and 3D printing processes have improved the accuracy and reduced the production time. Ordinarily, digital cameras are used to capture the features of the limb from different views to create a 3D model. We propose a system to model the limb using Microsoft Kinect2 sensor. The Kinect can capture RGB and depth frames simultaneously up to 30 fps with sufficient accuracy. The region of interest is captured from three views, each shifted by 90 degrees. The RGB and depth data are fused into a single RGB-D frame. The resolution of the RGB frame is 1920px x 1080px while the resolution of the Depth frame is 512px x 424px. As the resolution of the frames is not equal, RGB pixels are mapped onto the Depth pixels to make sure data is not lost even if the resolution is lower. The resulting RGB-D frames are collected and using the depth coordinates, a three dimensional point cloud is generated for each view of the Kinect sensor. A common reference system was developed to merge the individual point clouds from the Kinect sensors. The reference system consisted of 8 coloured cubes, connected by rods to form a skeleton-cube with the coloured cubes at the corners. For each Kinect, the region of interest is the square formed by the centres of the four cubes facing the Kinect. The point clouds are merged by considering one of the cubes as the origin of a reference system. Depending on the relative distance from each cube, the three dimensional coordinate points from each point cloud is aligned to the reference frame to give a complete point cloud. The RGB data is used to correct for any errors in depth data for the point cloud. A triangular mesh is generated from the point cloud by applying Delaunay triangulation which generates the rough surface of the limb. This technique forms an approximation of the surface of the limb. The mesh is smoothened to obtain a smooth outer layer to give an accurate model of the limb. The model of the limb is used as a base for designing the custom orthotic brace or cast. It is transferred to a CAD/CAM design file to design of the brace above the surface of the limb. The proposed system would be more cost effective than current systems that use MRI or CT scans for generating 3D models and would be quicker than using traditional plaster of Paris cast modelling and the overall setup time is also low. Preliminary results indicate that the accuracy of the Kinect2 is satisfactory to perform modelling.

Keywords: 3d scanning, mesh generation, Microsoft kinect, orthotics, registration

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83 A Sociological Study of the Potential Role of Retired Soldiers in the Post War Development and Reconstruction in Sri Lanka

Authors: Amunupura Kiriwandeiye Gedara, Asintha Saminda Gnanaratne

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The security forces can be described as a workforce that goes beyond the role of ensuring the national security and contributes to the development process of the country. Soldiers are following combatant training courses during their tenure, they are equipped with a variety of vocational training courses to satisfy the needs of the army, to equip them with vocational training capabilities to achieve the development and reconstruction goals of the country as well as for the betterment of society in the event of emergencies. But with retirement, their relationship with the military is severed, and they are responsible for the future of their lives. The main purpose of this study was to examine how such professional capabilities can contribute to the development of the country, the current socio-economic status of the retired soldiers, and the current application of the vocational training skills they have mastered in the army to develop and rebuild the country in an effective manner. After analyzing the available research literature related to this field, a conceptual framework was developed and according to qualitative research methodology, and data obtained from Case studies and interviews are analyzed by using thematic analysis. Factors influencing early retirement include a lack of understanding of benefits, delays in promotions, not being properly evaluated for work, getting married on hasty decisions, and not having enough time to spend on family and household chores. Most of the soldiers are not aware about various programs and benefits available to retirees. They do not have a satisfactory attitude towards the retirement guidance they receive from the army at the time of retirement. Also, due to the lack of understanding about how to use their vocational capabilities successfully pursue their retirement life, the majority of people are employed in temporary jobs, and some are successful in post-retirement life due to their successful use of training received. Some live on pensions without engaging in any income-generating activities, and those who retire after 12 years of service are facing severe economic hardships as they do not get pensions. Although they have received training in various fields, they do not use them for their benefit due to lack of proper guidance. Although the government implements programs, they are not clearly aware of them. Barriers to utilization of training include an absence of a system to identify the professional skills of retired soldiers, interest in civil society affairs, exploration of opportunities in the civil and private sectors, and politicization of services. If they are given the opportunity, they will be able to contribute to the development and reconstruction process. The findings of the study further show that it has many social, economic, political, and psychological benefits not only for individuals but also for a country. Entrepreneurship training for all retired soldiers, improving officers' understanding, streamlining existing mechanisms, creating new mechanisms, setting up a separate unit for retirees, and adapting them to civil society, private and non-governmental contributions, and training courses can be identified as potential means to improve the current situation.

Keywords: development, reconstruction, retired soldiers, vocational capabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 113
82 Disaster Management Approach for Planning an Early Response to Earthquakes in Urban Areas

Authors: Luis Reynaldo Mota-Santiago, Angélica Lozano

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Determining appropriate measures to face earthquakesarea challenge for practitioners. In the literature, some analyses consider disaster scenarios, disregarding some important field characteristics. Sometimes, software that allows estimating the number of victims and infrastructure damages is used. Other times historical information of previous events is used, or the scenarios’informationis assumed to be available even if it isnot usual in practice. Humanitarian operations start immediately after an earthquake strikes, and the first hours in relief efforts are important; local efforts are critical to assess the situation and deliver relief supplies to the victims. A preparation action is prepositioning stockpiles, most of them at central warehouses placed away from damage-prone areas, which requires large size facilities and budget. Usually, decisions in the first 12 hours (standard relief time (SRT)) after the disaster are the location of temporary depots and the design of distribution paths. The motivation for this research was the delay in the reaction time of the early relief efforts generating the late arrival of aid to some areas after the Mexico City 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2017. Hence, a preparation approach for planning the immediate response to earthquake disasters is proposed, intended for local governments, considering their capabilities for planning and for responding during the SRT, in order to reduce the start-up time of immediate response operations in urban areas. The first steps are the generation and analysis of disaster scenarios, which allow estimatethe relief demand before and in the early hours after an earthquake. The scenarios can be based on historical data and/or the seismic hazard analysis of an Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risk as a way to address the limited or null available information.The following steps include the decision processes for: a) locating local depots (places to prepositioning stockpiles)and aid-giving facilities at closer places as possible to risk areas; and b) designing the vehicle paths for aid distribution (from local depots to the aid-giving facilities), which can be used at the beginning of the response actions. This approach allows speeding up the delivery of aid in the early moments of the emergency, which could reduce the suffering of the victims allowing additional time to integrate a broader and more streamlined response (according to new information)from national and international organizations into these efforts. The proposed approachis applied to two case studies in Mexico City. These areas were affectedby the 2017’s earthquake, having limited aid response. The approach generates disaster scenarios in an easy way and plans a faster early response with a short quantity of stockpiles which can be managed in the early hours of the emergency by local governments. Considering long-term storage, the estimated quantities of stockpiles require a limited budget to maintain and a small storage space. These stockpiles are useful also to address a different kind of emergencies in the area.

Keywords: disaster logistics, early response, generation of disaster scenarios, preparation phase

Procedia PDF Downloads 102
81 Cross-Country Mitigation Policies and Cross Border Emission Taxes

Authors: Massimo Ferrari, Maria Sole Pagliari

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Pollution is a classic example of economic externality: agents who produce it do not face direct costs from emissions. Therefore, there are no direct economic incentives for reducing pollution. One way to address this market failure would be directly taxing emissions. However, because emissions are global, governments might as well find it optimal to wait let foreign countries to tax emissions so that they can enjoy the benefits of lower pollution without facing its direct costs. In this paper, we first document the empirical relation between pollution and economic output with static and dynamic regression methods. We show that there is a negative relation between aggregate output and the stock of pollution (measured as the stock of CO₂ emissions). This relationship is also highly non-linear, increasing at an exponential rate. In the second part of the paper, we develop and estimate a two-country, two-sector model for the US and the euro area. With this model, we aim at analyzing how the public sector should respond to higher emissions and what are the direct costs that these policies might have. In the model, there are two types of firms, brown firms (which produce a polluting technology) and green firms. Brown firms also produce an externality, CO₂ emissions, which has detrimental effects on aggregate output. As brown firms do not face direct costs from polluting, they do not have incentives to reduce emissions. Notably, emissions in our model are global: the stock of CO₂ in the economy affects all countries, independently from where it is produced. This simplified economy captures the main trade-off between emissions and production, generating a classic market failure. According to our results, the current level of emission reduces output by between 0.4 and 0.75%. Notably, these estimates lay in the upper bound of the distribution of those delivered by studies in the early 2000s. To address market failure, governments should step in introducing taxes on emissions. With the tax, brown firms pay a cost for polluting hence facing the incentive to move to green technologies. Governments, however, might also adopt a beggar-thy-neighbour strategy. Reducing emissions is costly, as moves production away from the 'optimal' production mix of brown and green technology. Because emissions are global, a government could just wait for the other country to tackle climate change, ripping the benefits without facing any costs. We study how this strategic game unfolds and show three important results: first, cooperation is first-best optimal from a global prospective; second, countries face incentives to deviate from the cooperating equilibria; third, tariffs on imported brown goods (the only retaliation policy in case of deviation from the cooperation equilibrium) are ineffective because the exchange rate would move to compensate. We finally study monetary policy under when costs for climate change rise and show that the monetary authority should react stronger to deviations of inflation from its target.

Keywords: climate change, general equilibrium, optimal taxation, monetary policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
80 Giving Children with Osteogenesis Imperfecta a Voice: Overview of a Participatory Approach for the Development of an Interactive Communication Tool

Authors: M. Siedlikowski, F. Rauch, A. Tsimicalis

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Osteogenesis Imperfecta (OI) is a genetic disorder of childhood onset that causes frequent fractures after minimal physical stress. To date, OI research has focused on medically- and surgically-oriented outcomes with little attention on the perspective of the affected child. It is a challenge to elicit the child’s voice in health care, in other words, their own perspective on their symptoms, but software development offers a way forward. Sisom (Norwegian acronym derived from ‘Si det som det er’ meaning ‘Tell it as it is’) is an award-winning, rigorously tested, interactive, computerized tool that helps children with chronic illnesses express their symptoms to their clinicians. The successful Sisom software tool, that addresses the child directly, has not yet been adapted to attend to symptoms unique to children with OI. The purpose of this study was to develop a Sisom paper prototype for children with OI by seeking the perspectives of end users, particularly, children with OI and clinicians. Our descriptive qualitative study was conducted at Shriners Hospitals for Children® – Canada, which follows the largest cohort of children with OI in North America. Purposive sampling was used to recruit 12 children with OI over three cycles. Nine clinicians oversaw the development process, which involved determining the relevance of current Sisom symptoms, vignettes, and avatars, as well as generating new Sisom OI components. Data, including field notes, transcribed audio-recordings, and drawings, were deductively analyzed using content analysis techniques. Guided by the following framework, data pertaining to symptoms, vignettes, and avatars were coded into five categories: a) Relevant; b) Irrelevant; c) To modify; d) To add; e) Unsure. Overall, 70.8% of Sisom symptoms were deemed relevant for inclusion, with 49.4% directly incorporated, and 21.3% incorporated with changes to syntax, and/or vignette, and/or location. Three additions were made to the ‘Avatar’ island. This allowed children to celebrate their uniqueness: ‘Makes you feel like you’re not like everybody else.’ One new island, ‘About Me’, was added to capture children’s worldviews. One new sub-island, ‘Getting Around’, was added to reflect accessibility issues. These issues were related to the children’s independence, their social lives, as well as the perceptions of others. In being consulted as experts throughout the co-creation of the Sisom OI paper prototype, children coded the Sisom symptoms and provided sound rationales for their chosen codes. In rationalizing their codes, all children shared personal stories about themselves and their relationships, insights about their OI, and an understanding of the strengths and challenges they experience on a day-to-day basis. The child’s perspective on their health is a basic right, and allowing it to be heard is the next frontier in the care of children with genetic diseases. Sisom OI, a methodological breakthrough within OI research, will offer clinicians an innovative and child-centered approach to capture this neglected perspective. It will provide a tool for the delivery of health care in the center that established the worldwide standard of care for children with OI.

Keywords: child health, interactive computerized communication tool, participatory approach, symptom management

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
79 Ternary Organic Blend for Semitransparent Solar Cells with Enhanced Short Circuit Current Density

Authors: Mohammed Makha, Jakob Heier, Frank Nüesch, Roland Hany

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Organic solar cells (OSCs) have made rapid progress and currently achieve power conversion efficiencies (PCE) of over 10%. OSCs have several merits over other direct light-to-electricity generating cells and can be processed at low cost from solution on flexible substrates over large areas. Moreover, combining organic semiconductors with transparent and conductive electrodes allows for the fabrication of semitransparent OSCs (SM-OSCs). For SM-OSCs the challenge is to achieve a high average visible transmission (AVT) while maintaining a high short circuit current (Jsc). Typically, Jsc of SM-OSCs is smaller than when using an opaque metal top electrode. This is because the non-absorbed light during the first transit through the active layer and the transparent electrode is forward-transmitted out of the device. Recently, OSCs using a ternary blend of organic materials have received attention. This strategy was pursued to extend the light harvesting over the visible range. However, it is a general challenge to manipulate the performance of ternary OSCs in a predictable way, because many key factors affect the charge generation and extraction in ternary solar cells. Consequently, the device performance is affected by the compatibility between the blend components and the resulting film morphology, the energy levels and bandgaps, the concentration of the guest material and its location in the active layer. In this work, we report on a solvent-free lamination process for the fabrication of efficient and semitransparent ternary blend OSCs. The ternary blend was composed of PC70BM and the electron donors PBDTTT-C and an NIR cyanine absorbing dye (Cy7T). Using an opaque metal top electrode, a PCE of 6% was achieved for the optimized binary polymer: fullerene blend (AVT = 56%). However, the PCE dropped to ~2% when decreasing (to 30 nm) the active film thickness to increase the AVT value (75%). Therefore we resorted to the ternary blend and measured for non-transparent cells a PCE of 5.5% when using an active polymer: dye: fullerene (0.7: 0.3: 1.5 wt:wt:wt) film of 95 nm thickness (AVT = 65% when omitting the top electrode). In a second step, the optimized ternary blend was used of the fabrication of SM-OSCs. We used a plastic/metal substrate with a light transmission of over 90% as a transparent electrode that was applied via a lamination process. The interfacial layer between the active layer and the top electrode was optimized in order to improve the charge collection and the contact with the laminated top electrode. We demonstrated a PCE of 3% with AVT of 51%. The parameter space for ternary OSCs is large and it is difficult to find the best concentration ratios by trial and error. A rational approach for device optimization is the construction of a ternary blend phase diagram. We discuss our attempts to construct such a phase diagram for the PBDTTT-C: Cy7T: PC70BM system via a combination of using selective Cy7T selective solvents and atomic force microscopy. From the ternary diagram suitable morphologies for efficient light-to-current conversion can be identified. We compare experimental OSC data with these predictions.

Keywords: organic photovoltaics, ternary phase diagram, ternary organic solar cells, transparent solar cell, lamination

Procedia PDF Downloads 250
78 Multi-Objectives Genetic Algorithm for Optimizing Machining Process Parameters

Authors: Dylan Santos De Pinho, Nabil Ouerhani

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Energy consumption of machine-tools is becoming critical for machine-tool builders and end-users because of economic, ecological and legislation-related reasons. Many machine-tool builders are seeking for solutions that allow the reduction of energy consumption of machine-tools while preserving the same productivity rate and the same quality of machined parts. In this paper, we present the first results of a project conducted jointly by academic and industrial partners to reduce the energy consumption of a Swiss-Type lathe. We employ genetic algorithms to find optimal machining parameters – the set of parameters that lead to the best trade-off between energy consumption, part quality and tool lifetime. Three main machining process parameters are considered in our optimization technique, namely depth of cut, spindle rotation speed and material feed rate. These machining process parameters have been identified as the most influential ones in the configuration of the Swiss-type machining process. A state-of-the-art multi-objective genetic algorithm has been used. The algorithm combines three fitness functions, which are objective functions that permit to evaluate a set of parameters against the three objectives: energy consumption, quality of the machined parts, and tool lifetime. In this paper, we focus on the investigation of the fitness function related to energy consumption. Four different energy consumption related fitness functions have been investigated and compared. The first fitness function refers to the Kienzle cutting force model. The second fitness function uses the Material Removal Rate (RMM) as an indicator of energy consumption. The two other fitness functions are non-deterministic, learning-based functions. One fitness function uses a simple Neural Network to learn the relation between the process parameters and the energy consumption from experimental data. Another fitness function uses Lasso regression to determine the same relation. The goal is, then, to find out which fitness functions predict best the energy consumption of a Swiss-Type machining process for the given set of machining process parameters. Once determined, these functions may be used for optimization purposes – determine the optimal machining process parameters leading to minimum energy consumption. The performance of the four fitness functions has been evaluated. The Tornos DT13 Swiss-Type Lathe has been used to carry out the experiments. A mechanical part including various Swiss-Type machining operations has been selected for the experiments. The evaluation process starts with generating a set of CNC (Computer Numerical Control) programs for machining the part at hand. Each CNC program considers a different set of machining process parameters. During the machining process, the power consumption of the spindle is measured. All collected data are assigned to the appropriate CNC program and thus to the set of machining process parameters. The evaluation approach consists in calculating the correlation between the normalized measured power consumption and the normalized power consumption prediction for each of the four fitness functions. The evaluation shows that the Lasso and Neural Network fitness functions have the highest correlation coefficient with 97%. The fitness function “Material Removal Rate” (MRR) has a correlation coefficient of 90%, whereas the Kienzle-based fitness function has a correlation coefficient of 80%.

Keywords: adaptive machining, genetic algorithms, smart manufacturing, parameters optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
77 Psychosocial Experiences of Black Male Students in Public and Social Spaces on and around a Historically White South African Campus

Authors: Claudia P. Saunderson

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Widening of participation in higher education globally has increased diversity of student populations. However, widening participation is more than mere access. Central to the debate about widening participation are social justice issues of authentic inclusion and appropriate support for success for all students in higher education (HE). Given the recent global campaign for 'Black Lives Matter' as well as the worldwide advocacy for justice in the George Floyd case, the importance of the experiences of Black men, were again poignantly foregrounded. The literature abounds with the negative experiences of Black male students in higher education. Much of this literature emanates from the Global North, with little systematic research on black male students' university experiences originating from the Global South. This research, therefore, explores the psychosocial experiences of Black male students at a historically white South African university. Not only are these students' educational or academic adjustment important, but so is their psychosocial adjustment to the institution. The psychosocial adjustment might include emotional well-being, motivation, as well as the student’s perception of how well he fits in or is made to feel welcome at the institution. The study draws on strands of critical race theory (CRT), co-cultural theory (CCT) as well as defining properties of micro-aggression theory (MAT). In the study, CRT, therefore, served as an overarching theory at the macro level, and it comments on the structural dynamics while MAT and CCT rather focussed on the impact of structural arrangements like racialization, at an individual and micro-level. These theories furthermore provided a coherent analytic framework for this study. Using a case study design, this qualitative study, employing focus groups and individual interviews, drew on the psychosocial experiences of twenty Black male students to explore how they navigate this specific historically white campus. The data were analyzed using thematic analysis that provided a systematic procedure for generating codes and themes from the qualitative data. The study found that the combination of race and gender-based micro-aggressions experienced by students included negative stereotyping, criminalization as well as racial profiling and that these experiences impede participants' ability to thrive at the institution. However, participants also shared positive perspectives about the institution. Some of the positive traits of the institution that the participants mentioned were well-aligned administration, good quality of education, as well as various funding opportunities. This study implies that if any HE institution values transformation, it necessitates the exploration and interrogation of potential aspects that are subtly hidden in the institutional culture and environment that might serve as barriers to the transformation process. This positioning is based on a social justice stance and believes that all students are equal and have the right to racially and culturally equitable and appropriate education and support.

Keywords: critical race theory, higher education transformation, micro-aggression, student experience

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
76 Electricity Market Reforms Towards Clean Energy Transition andnd Their Impact in India

Authors: Tarun Kumar Dalakoti, Debajyoti Majumder, Aditya Prasad Das, Samir Chandra Saxena

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India’s ambitious target to achieve a 50 percent share of energy from non-fossil fuels and the 500-gigawatt (GW) renewable energy capacity before the deadline of 2030, coupled with the global pursuit of sustainable development, will compel the nation to embark on a rapid clean energy transition. As a result, electricity market reforms will emerge as critical policy instruments to facilitate this transition and achieve ambitious environmental targets. This paper will present a comprehensive analysis of the various electricity market reforms to be introduced in the Indian Electricity sector to facilitate the integration of clean energy sources and will assess their impact on the overall energy landscape. The first section of this paper will delve into the policy mechanisms to be introduced by the Government of India and the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission to promote clean energy deployment. These mechanisms include extensive provisions for the integration of renewables in the Indian Electricity Grid Code, 2023. The section will also cover the projection of RE Generation as highlighted in the National Electricity Plan, 2023. It will discuss the introduction of Green Energy Market segments, the waiver of Inter-State Transmission System (ISTS) charges for inter-state sale of solar and wind power, the notification of Promoting Renewable Energy through Green Energy Open Access Rules, and the bundling of conventional generating stations with renewable energy sources. The second section will evaluate the tangible impact of these electricity market reforms. By drawing on empirical studies and real-world case examples, the paper will assess the penetration rate of renewable energy sources in India’s electricity markets, the decline of conventional fuel-based generation, and the consequent reduction in carbon emissions. Furthermore, it will explore the influence of these reforms on electricity prices, the impact on various market segments due to the introduction of green contracts, and grid stability. The paper will also discuss the operational challenges to be faced due to the surge of RE Generation sources as a result of the implementation of the above-mentioned electricity market reforms, including grid integration issues, intermittency concerns with renewable energy sources, and the need for increasing grid resilience for future high RE in generation mix scenarios. In conclusion, this paper will emphasize that electricity market reforms will be pivotal in accelerating the global transition towards clean energy systems. It will underscore the importance of a holistic approach that combines effective policy design, robust regulatory frameworks, and active participation from market actors. Through a comprehensive examination of the impact of these reforms, the paper will shed light on the significance of India’s sustained commitment to a cleaner, more sustainable energy future.

Keywords: renewables, Indian electricity grid code, national electricity plan, green energy market

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75 Comparison between Bernardi’s Equation and Heat Flux Sensor Measurement as Battery Heat Generation Estimation Method

Authors: Marlon Gallo, Eduardo Miguel, Laura Oca, Eneko Gonzalez, Unai Iraola

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The heat generation of an energy storage system is an essential topic when designing a battery pack and its cooling system. Heat generation estimation is used together with thermal models to predict battery temperature in operation and adapt the design of the battery pack and the cooling system to these thermal needs guaranteeing its safety and correct operation. In the present work, a comparison between the use of a heat flux sensor (HFS) for indirect measurement of heat losses in a cell and the widely used and simplified version of Bernardi’s equation for estimation is presented. First, a Li-ion cell is thermally characterized with an HFS to measure the thermal parameters that are used in a first-order lumped thermal model. These parameters are the equivalent thermal capacity and the thermal equivalent resistance of a single Li-ion cell. Static (when no current is flowing through the cell) and dynamic (making current flow through the cell) tests are conducted in which HFS is used to measure heat between the cell and the ambient, so thermal capacity and resistances respectively can be calculated. An experimental platform records current, voltage, ambient temperature, surface temperature, and HFS output voltage. Second, an equivalent circuit model is built in a Matlab-Simulink environment. This allows the comparison between the generated heat predicted by Bernardi’s equation and the HFS measurements. Data post-processing is required to extrapolate the heat generation from the HFS measurements, as the sensor records the heat released to the ambient and not the one generated within the cell. Finally, the cell temperature evolution is estimated with the lumped thermal model (using both HFS and Bernardi’s equation total heat generation) and compared towards experimental temperature data (measured with a T-type thermocouple). At the end of this work, a critical review of the results obtained and the possible mismatch reasons are reported. The results show that indirectly measuring the heat generation with HFS gives a more precise estimation than Bernardi’s simplified equation. On the one hand, when using Bernardi’s simplified equation, estimated heat generation differs from cell temperature measurements during charges at high current rates. Additionally, for low capacity cells where a small change in capacity has a great influence on the terminal voltage, the estimated heat generation shows high dependency on the State of Charge (SoC) estimation, and therefore open circuit voltage calculation (as it is SoC dependent). On the other hand, with indirect measuring the heat generation with HFS, the resulting error is a maximum of 0.28ºC in the temperature prediction, in contrast with 1.38ºC with Bernardi’s simplified equation. This illustrates the limitations of Bernardi’s simplified equation for applications where precise heat monitoring is required. For higher current rates, Bernardi’s equation estimates more heat generation and consequently, a higher predicted temperature. Bernardi´s equation accounts for no losses after cutting the charging or discharging current. However, HFS measurement shows that after cutting the current the cell continues generating heat for some time, increasing the error of Bernardi´s equation.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, heat flux sensor, heat generation, thermal characterization

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74 Biomass Waste-To-Energy Technical Feasibility Analysis: A Case Study for Processing of Wood Waste in Malta

Authors: G. A. Asciak, C. Camilleri, A. Rizzo

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The waste management in Malta is a national challenge. Coupled with Malta’s recent economic boom, which has seen massive growth in several sectors, especially the construction industry, drastic actions need to be taken. Wood waste, currently being dumped in landfills, is one type of waste which has increased astronomically. This research study aims to carry out a thorough examination on the possibility of using this waste as a biomass resource and adopting a waste-to-energy technology in order to generate electrical energy. This study is composed of three distinct yet interdependent phases, namely, data collection from the local SMEs, thermal analysis using the bomb calorimeter, and generation of energy from wood waste using a micro biomass plant. Data collection from SMEs specializing in wood works was carried out to obtain information regarding the available types of wood waste, the annual weight of imported wood, and to analyse the manner in which wood shavings are used after wood is manufactured. From this analysis, it resulted that five most common types of wood available in Malta which would suitable for generating energy are Oak (hardwood), Beech (hardwood), Red Beech (softwood), African Walnut (softwood) and Iroko (hardwood). Subsequently, based on the information collected, a thermal analysis using a 6200 Isoperibol calorimeter on the five most common types of wood was performed. This analysis was done so as to give a clear indication with regards to the burning potential, which will be valuable when testing the wood in the biomass plant. The experiments carried out in this phase provided a clear indication that the African Walnut generated the highest gross calorific value. This means that this type of wood released the highest amount of heat during the combustion in the calorimeter. This is due to the high presence of extractives and lignin, which accounts for a slightly higher gross calorific value. This is followed by Red Beech and Oak. Moreover, based on the findings of the first phase, both the African Walnut and Red Beech are highly imported in the Maltese Islands for use in various purposes. Oak, which has the third highest gross calorific value is the most imported and common wood used. From the five types of wood, three were chosen for use in the power plant on the basis of their popularity and their heating values. The PP20 biomass plant was used to burn the three types of shavings in order to compare results related to the estimated feedstock consumed by the plant, the high temperatures generated, the time taken by the plant to produce gasification temperatures, and the projected electrical power attributed to each wood type. From the experiments, it emerged that whilst all three types reached the required gasification temperature and thus, are feasible for electrical energy generation. African Walnut was deemed to be the most suitable fast-burning fuel. This is followed by Red-beech and Oak, which required a longer period of time to reach the required gasification temperatures. The results obtained provide a clear indication that wood waste can not only be treated instead of being dumped in dumped in landfill but coupled.

Keywords: biomass, isoperibol calorimeter, waste-to-energy technology, wood

Procedia PDF Downloads 220
73 Behavioral Analysis of Anomalies in Intertemporal Choices Through the Concept of Impatience and Customized Strategies for Four Behavioral Investor Profiles With an Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process: A Case Study

Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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The Discounted Utility Model is the essential reference for calculating the utility of intertemporal prospects. According to this model, the value assigned to an outcome is the smaller the greater the distance between the moment in which the choice is made and the instant in which the outcome is perceived. This diminution determines the intertemporal preferences of the individual, the psychological significance of which is encapsulated in the discount rate. The classic model provides a discount rate of linear or exponential nature, necessary for temporally consistent preferences. Empirical evidence, however, has proven that individuals apply discount rates with a hyperbolic nature generating the phenomenon of intemporal inconsistency. What this means is that individuals have difficulty managing their money and future. Behavioral finance, which analyzes the investor's attitude through cognitive psychology, has made it possible to understand that beyond individual financial competence, there are factors that condition choices because they alter the decision-making process: behavioral bias. Since such cognitive biases are inevitable, to improve the quality of choices, research has focused on a personalized approach to strategies that combines behavioral finance with personality theory. From the considerations, it emerges the need to find a procedure to construct the personalized strategies that consider the personal characteristics of the client, such as age or gender, and his personality. The work is developed in three parts. The first part discusses and investigates the weight of the degree of impatience and impatience decrease in the anomalies of the discounted utility model. Specifically, the degree of decrease in impatience quantifies the impact that emotional factors generated by haste and financial market agitation have on decision making. The second part considers the relationship between decision making and personality theory. Specifically, four behavioral categories associated with four categories of behavioral investors are considered. This association allows us to interpret intertemporal choice as a combination of bias and temperament. The third part of the paper presents a method for constructing personalized strategies using Analytic Hierarchy Process. Briefly: the first level of the analytic hierarchy process considers the goal of the strategic plan; the second level considers the four temperaments; the third level compares the temperaments with the anomalies of the discounted utility model; and the fourth level contains the different possible alternatives to be selected. The weights of the hierarchy between level 2 and level 3 are constructed considering the degrees of decrease in impatience derived for each temperament with an experimental phase. The results obtained confirm the relationship between temperaments and anomalies through the degree of decrease in impatience and highlight that the actual impact of emotions in decision making. Moreover, it proposes an original and useful way to improve financial advice. Inclusion of additional levels in the Analytic Hierarchy Process can further improve strategic personalization.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, behavioral finance anomalies, intertemporal choice, personalized strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 79
72 Climate Change and Rural-Urban Migration in Brazilian Semiarid Region

Authors: Linda Márcia Mendes Delazeri, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha

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Over the past few years, the evidence that human activities have altered the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have become stronger, indicating that this accumulation is the most likely cause of climate change observed so far. The risks associated with climate change, although uncertain, have the potential to increase social vulnerability, exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges. Developing countries are potentially the most affected by climate change, since they have less potential to adapt and are those most dependent on agricultural activities, one of the sectors in which the major negative impacts are expected. In Brazil, specifically, it is expected that the localities which form the semiarid region are among the most affected, due to existing irregularity in rainfall and high temperatures, in addition to economic and social factors endemic to the region. Given the strategic limitations to handle the environmental shocks caused by climate change, an alternative adopted in response to these shocks is migration. Understanding the specific features of migration flows, such as duration, destination and composition is essential to understand the impacts of migration on origin and destination locations and to develop appropriate policies. Thus, this study aims to examine whether climatic factors have contributed to rural-urban migration in semiarid municipalities in the recent past and how these migration flows will be affected by future scenarios of climate change. The study was based on microeconomic theory of utility maximization, in which, to decide to leave the countryside and move on to the urban area, the individual seeks to maximize its utility. Analytically, we estimated an econometric model using the modeling of Fixed Effects and the results confirmed the expectation that climate drivers are crucial for the occurrence of the rural-urban migration. Also, other drivers of the migration process, as economic, social and demographic factors were also important. Additionally, predictions about the rural-urban migration motivated by variations in temperature and precipitation in the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were made for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that there will be increased rural-urban migration in the semiarid region in both scenarios and in both periods. In general, the results of this study reinforce the need for formulations of public policies to avoid migration for climatic reasons, such as policies that give support to the productive activities generating income in rural areas. By providing greater incentives for family agriculture and expanding sources of credit for the farmer, it will have a better position to face climate adversities and to settle in rural areas. Ultimately, if migration becomes necessary, there must be the adoption of policies that seek an organized and planned development of urban areas, considering migration as an adaptation strategy to adverse climate effects. Thus, policies that act to absorb migrants in urban areas and ensure that they have access to basic services offered to the urban population would contribute to the social costs reduction of climate variability.

Keywords: climate change, migration, rural productivity, semiarid region

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
71 Evaluating the ‘Assembled Educator’ of a Specialized Postgraduate Engineering Course Using Activity Theory and Genre Ecologies

Authors: Simon Winberg

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The landscape of professional postgraduate education is changing: the focus of these programmes is moving from preparing candidates for a life in academia towards a focus of training in expert knowledge and skills to support industry. This is especially pronounced in engineering disciplines where increasingly more complex products are drawing on a depth of knowledge from multiple fields. This connects strongly with the broader notion of Industry 4.0 – where technology and society are being brought together to achieve more powerful and desirable products, but products whose inner workings also are more complex than before. The changes in what we do, and how we do it, has a profound impact on what industry would like universities to provide. One such change is the increased demand for taught doctoral and Masters programmes. These programmes aim to provide skills and training for professionals, to expand their knowledge of state-of-the-art tools and technologies. This paper investigates one such course, namely a Software Defined Radio (SDR) Master’s degree course. The teaching support for this course had to be drawn from an existing pool of academics, none of who were specialists in this field. The paper focuses on the kind of educator, a ‘hybrid academic’, assembled from available academic staff and bolstered by research. The conceptual framework for this paper combines Activity Theory and Genre Ecology. Activity Theory is used to reason about learning and interactions during the course, and Genre Ecology is used to model building and sharing of technical knowledge related to using tools and artifacts. Data were obtained from meetings with students and lecturers, logs, project reports, and course evaluations. The findings show how the course, which was initially academically-oriented, metamorphosed into a tool-dominant peer-learning structure, largely supported by the sharing of technical tool-based knowledge. While the academic staff could address gaps in the participants’ fundamental knowledge of radio systems, the participants brought with them extensive specialized knowledge and tool experience which they shared with the class. This created a complicated dynamic in the class, which centered largely on engagements with technology artifacts, such as simulators, from which knowledge was built. The course was characterized by a richness of ‘epistemic objects’, which is to say objects that had knowledge-generating qualities. A significant portion of the course curriculum had to be adapted, and the learning methods changed to accommodate the dynamic interactions that occurred during classes. This paper explains the SDR Masters course in terms of conflicts and innovations in its activity system, as well as the continually hybridizing genre ecology to show how the structuring and resource-dependence of the course transformed from its initial ‘traditional’ academic structure to a more entangled arrangement over time. It is hoped that insights from this paper would benefit other educators involved in the design and teaching of similar types of specialized professional postgraduate taught programmes.

Keywords: professional postgraduate education, taught masters, engineering education, software defined radio

Procedia PDF Downloads 72
70 Women's Entrepreneurship in Mena Region: Gem Key Learnings

Authors: Fatima Boutaleb

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Entrepreneurship proves to be crucial for the economic growth and development, since it contributes to job creation and the improvement of the overall productivity thus generating a positive impact upon society at various levels. Promoting entrepreneurship stimulates therefore economic diversity that is key to the betterment and/or maintaining of the standard of living. In fact, recent research suggests that entrepreneurship contributes to development by creating businesses and jobs, stimulating innovation, creating social capital across borders, and channeling political and financial capital. However, different research studies indicate that among the main factors impeding the entrepreneurship are politico-economic as socio-cultural problems, with an intensity for those related to young people and to women. In the MENA region, discrimination inherent in gender is alarming: Only one woman in eight runs her own business against 1 in 3 men. In most countries, young women and young men are facing problems involving access to finance, inadequate infrastructure, lack of support and, in general, an ecosystem that is rather unfavorable. According to the International Labor Organization, North Africa and the Middle East has the highest unemployment rate in all other regions of the world. In other hand, nearly a quarter of the population under 30 is unemployed and youth unemployment costs more than $40 billion each year to the region. In the current context, the situations in the Middle East and North Africa region are singular, both in terms of demographic trends and socio-economic issues around the employment of a large and better trained youth, but still strongly affected by unemployment and under-employment. According to a study published in 2015 by McKinsey, the world gain 26% of additional GDP (47% in the MENA region), more than 28 trillion dollars by 2025, if women came to participate, as well as men, to the economy. Promoting entrepreneurship represents an excellent alternative for the countries whose productive fabric fails to integrate the contingent of young people entering the job market each year. The MENA region, presenting entrepreneurial activity rates below those of other regions in terms of comparable development, has undoubtedly leeway at this level, even though the region displays large national heterogeneity, namely in the priority given to the promotion of entrepreneurship. The objective of this article is therefore to examine the women entrepreneurial vocation in the MENA region, to see to what extent research on the determinant of gender can provide information on the trend of the emerging entrepreneurial activity whether driven by necessity or by opportunity and, on this basis, to submit public policy proposals for the improvement of the mechanisms of inclusion among the youth women people. The objective is not to analyze the causality models but rather to identify the entrepreneurial construct specific to the MENA region via the analysis of GEM data from 2017 to 2019 among adults belonging to 10 countries of the MENA region. Notably, the study shows that inclusion of young women may be enhanced. These disadvantaged segments frequently intend to become entrepreneurs, but they tend not to enact their vocational intentions.

Keywords: economic development, entrepreneurial activity, GEM, gender, informal sector

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69 Design and Application of a Model Eliciting Activity with Civil Engineering Students on Binomial Distribution to Solve a Decision Problem Based on Samples Data Involving Aspects of Randomness and Proportionality

Authors: Martha E. Aguiar-Barrera, Humberto Gutierrez-Pulido, Veronica Vargas-Alejo

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Identifying and modeling random phenomena is a fundamental cognitive process to understand and transform reality. Recognizing situations governed by chance and giving them a scientific interpretation, without being carried away by beliefs or intuitions, is a basic training for citizens. Hence the importance of generating teaching-learning processes, supported using technology, paying attention to model creation rather than only executing mathematical calculations. In order to develop the student's knowledge about basic probability distributions and decision making; in this work a model eliciting activity (MEA) is reported. The intention was applying the Model and Modeling Perspective to design an activity related to civil engineering that would be understandable for students, while involving them in its solution. Furthermore, the activity should imply a decision-making challenge based on sample data, and the use of the computer should be considered. The activity was designed considering the six design principles for MEA proposed by Lesh and collaborators. These are model construction, reality, self-evaluation, model documentation, shareable and reusable, and prototype. The application and refinement of the activity was carried out during three school cycles in the Probability and Statistics class for Civil Engineering students at the University of Guadalajara. The analysis of the way in which the students sought to solve the activity was made using audio and video recordings, as well as with the individual and team reports of the students. The information obtained was categorized according to the activity phase (individual or team) and the category of analysis (sample, linearity, probability, distributions, mechanization, and decision-making). With the results obtained through the MEA, four obstacles have been identified to understand and apply the binomial distribution: the first one was the resistance of the student to move from the linear to the probabilistic model; the second one, the difficulty of visualizing (infering) the behavior of the population through the sample data; the third one, viewing the sample as an isolated event and not as part of a random process that must be viewed in the context of a probability distribution; and the fourth one, the difficulty of decision-making with the support of probabilistic calculations. These obstacles have also been identified in literature on the teaching of probability and statistics. Recognizing these concepts as obstacles to understanding probability distributions, and that these do not change after an intervention, allows for the modification of these interventions and the MEA. In such a way, the students may identify themselves the erroneous solutions when they carrying out the MEA. The MEA also showed to be democratic since several students who had little participation and low grades in the first units, improved their participation. Regarding the use of the computer, the RStudio software was useful in several tasks, for example in such as plotting the probability distributions and to exploring different sample sizes. In conclusion, with the models created to solve the MEA, the Civil Engineering students improved their probabilistic knowledge and understanding of fundamental concepts such as sample, population, and probability distribution.

Keywords: linear model, models and modeling, probability, randomness, sample

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68 Convergence of Strategic Tasks of Business Tourism and Hotel Industry Development: The Case of Georgia

Authors: Nana Katsitadze, Tamar Atanelishvili, Mariam Kutateladze, Alexandre Tushishvili

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In the modern world, tourism has emerged as one of the most powerful economic sectors, and due to its high economic performance, it is attractive to the countries with various levels of economic development. The purpose of the present paper, dedicated to discussing the current problems of tourism development, is to find ways which will contribute to bringing more benefits to the country from the sector. Georgia has been successfully developing leisure tourism for the last ten years, and at the next stage of development business, tourism gains particular importance for Georgia as a means of mitigating the negative socio-economic effects caused by the seasonality of tourism and as a high-cost tourism market. Therefore, the object of the paper is to study the factors that contribute to the development of business tourism. The paper uses the research methods such as system analysis, synthesis, analogy, as well as historical, comparative, economic, and statistical methods of analysis. The information base for the research is made up of the statistics on the functioning of the tourism market of Georgia and foreign countries as well as official data provided by international organizations in the field of tourism. Based on the experience of business tourism around the world and identifying the successful start of business tourism development in Georgia and its causing factors, a business tourism development model for Georgia has been developed. The model might be useful as a methodological material for developing a business tourism development concept for the countries with limited financial resources but rich in tourism resources like Georgia. On the initial stage of development (in absence of conventional centers), the suggested concept of business tourism development involves organizing small and medium-sized meetings both in large cities and in regions by using high-class hotel infrastructure and event management services. Relocation of small meetings to the regions encourages inclusive development of the sector based on increasing the awareness of these regions as tourist sites as well as the increase in employment and sales of other tourism or consumer products. Business tourism increases the number of hotel visitors in the non-seasonal period and improves hotel performance indicators, which enhances the attractiveness of investing in the hotel business. According to the present concept of business tourism development, at the initial stage, development of business tourism is based on the existing markets, including internal market, neighboring markets and the markets of geographically relatively near countries and at the next stage, the concept involves generating tourists from other relatively distant target markets. As a result, by gaining experience in business tourism, enhancing professionalism, increasing awareness and stimulating infrastructure development, the country will prepare the basis to move to a higher stage of tourism development. In addition, the experience showed that for attracting large customers, peculiarities of the field require activation of state policy and active use of marketing mechanisms and tools of the state.

Keywords: hotel industry development, MICE model, MICE strategy, MICE tourism in Georgia

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67 The Influence of Leadership Styles on Organizational Performance and Innovation: Empirical Study in Information Technology Sector in Spain

Authors: Richard Mababu Mukiur

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Leadership is an important drive that plays a key role in the success and development of organizations, particularly in the current context of digital transformation, highly competitivity and globalization. Leaders are persons that hold a dominant and privileged position within an organization, field, or sector of activities and are able to manage, motivate and exercise a high degree of influence over other in order to achieve the institutional goals. They achieve commitment and engagement of others to embrace change, and to make good decisions. Leadership studies in higher education institutions have examined how effective leaders hold their organizations, and also to find approaches which fit best in the organizations context for its better management, transformation and improvement. Moreover, recent studies have highlighted the impact of leadership styles on organizational performance and innovation capacities, since some styles give better results than others. Effective leadership is part of learning process that take place through day-to-day tasks, responsibilities, and experiences that influence the organizational performance, innovation and engagement of employees. The adoption of appropriate leadership styles can improve organization results and encourage learning process, team skills and performance, and employees' motivation and engagement. In the case of case of Information Technology sector, leadership styles are particularly crucial since this sector is leading relevant changes and transformations in the knowledge society. In this context, the main objective of this study is to analyze managers leadership styles with their relation to organizational performance and innovation that may be mediated by learning organization process and demographic variables. Therefore, it was hypothesized that the transformational and transactional leadership will be the main style adopted in Information Technology sector and will influence organizational performance and innovation capacity. A sample of 540 participants from Information technology sector has been determined in order to achieve the objective of this study. The Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire was administered as the principal instrument, Scale of innovation and Learning Organization Questionnaire. Correlations and multiple regression analysis have been used as the main techniques of data analysis. The findings indicate that leadership styles have a relevant impact on organizational performance and innovation capacity. The transformational and transactional leadership are predominant styles in Information technology sector. The effective leadership style tend to be characterized by the capacity of generating and sharing knowledge that improve organization performance and innovation capacity. Managers are adopting and adapting their leadership styles that respond to the new organizational, social and cultural challenges and realities of contemporary society. Managers who encourage innovation, foster learning process, share experience are useful to the organization since they contribute to its development and transformation. Learning process capacity and demographic variables (age, gender, and job tenure) mediate the relationship between leadership styles, innovation capacity and organizational performance. The transformational and transactional leadership tend to enhance the organizational performance due to their significant impact on team-building, employees' engagement and satisfaction. Some practical implications and future lines of research have been proposed.

Keywords: leadership styles, tranformational leadership, organisational performance, organisational innovation

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66 Potential Assessment and Techno-Economic Evaluation of Photovoltaic Energy Conversion System: A Case of Ethiopia Light Rail Transit System

Authors: Asegid Belay Kebede, Getachew Biru Worku

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The Earth and its inhabitants have faced an existential threat as a result of severe manmade actions. Global warming and climate change have been the most apparent manifestations of this threat throughout the world, with increasingly intense heat waves, temperature rises, flooding, sea-level rise, ice sheet melting, and so on. One of the major contributors to this disaster is the ever-increasing production and consumption of energy, which is still primarily fossil-based and emits billions of tons of hazardous GHG. The transportation industry is recognized as the biggest actor in terms of emissions, accounting for 24% of direct CO2 emissions and being one of the few worldwide sectors where CO2 emissions are still growing. Rail transportation, which includes all from light rail transit to high-speed rail services, is regarded as one of the most efficient modes of transportation, accounting for 9% of total passenger travel and 7% of total freight transit. Nonetheless, there is still room for improvement in the transportation sector, which might be done by incorporating alternative and/or renewable energy sources. As a result of these rapidly changing global energy situations and rapidly dwindling fossil fuel supplies, we were driven to analyze the possibility of renewable energy sources for traction applications. Even a small achievement in energy conservation or harnessing might significantly influence the total railway system and have the potential to transform the railway sector like never before. As a result, the paper begins by assessing the potential for photovoltaic (PV) power generation on train rooftops and existing infrastructure such as railway depots, passenger stations, traction substation rooftops, and accessible land along rail lines. As a result, a method based on a Google Earth system (using Helioscopes software) is developed to assess the PV potential along rail lines and on train station roofs. As an example, the Addis Ababa light rail transit system (AA-LRTS) is utilized. The case study examines the electricity-generating potential and economic performance of photovoltaics installed on AALRTS. As a consequence, the overall capacity of solar systems on all stations, including train rooftops, reaches 72.6 MWh per day, with an annual power output of 10.6 GWh. Throughout a 25-year lifespan, the overall CO2 emission reduction and total profit from PV-AA-LRTS can reach 180,000 tons and 892 million Ethiopian birrs, respectively. The PV-AA-LRTS has a 200% return on investment. All PV stations have a payback time of less than 13 years, and the price of solar-generated power is less than $0.08/kWh, which can compete with the benchmark price of coal-fired electricity. Our findings indicate that PV-AA-LRTS has tremendous potential, with both energy and economic advantages.

Keywords: sustainable development, global warming, energy crisis, photovoltaic energy conversion, techno-economic analysis, transportation system, light rail transit

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65 Measurement and Modelling of HIV Epidemic among High Risk Groups and Migrants in Two Districts of Maharashtra, India: An Application of Forecasting Software-Spectrum

Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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