Search results for: niche fitness evaluation model

Authors: Weng Jiantao, Wu Yiqun

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The efficiency of natural ventilation, wind pressure distribution on building surface, wind comfort for pedestrians and buildings’ wind tolerance in traditional settlements are closely related to the pattern of terrain. On the basis of field research on the typical island terrain in China, the physical and mathematical models are established by using CFD software, and then the simulation results of the wind field are exported. We discuss the relationship between wind direction and wind field results. Furthermore simulation results are imported into ArcGIS platform. The evaluation model of island site selection is established with considering slope factor. We realize the visual model of site selection on complex island terrain. The multi-plans of certain residential are discussed based on wind simulation; at last the optimal project is selected. Results can provide the theory guidance for settlement planning and construction in China's traditional island.

Keywords: CFD, island terrain, site selection, construction mechanism

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Authors: Latif Yanar, Muharrem Kaçan

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In this study, an Analytic Hierarchy Process and Analytic Network Process Decision Support System (DSS) model for determination of a navy base place in another country is proposed together with a decision support software (DESTEC 1.0) developed using C Sharp programming language. The proposed software also has the ability of performing the fuzzy models (Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ANP) of the proposed DSS to cope with the ambiguous and linguistic nature of the model. The AHP and ANP model, for a decision support for selecting the best place among the alternatives, including the criteria and alternatives, is developed and solved by the experts from Turkish Navy and Turkish academicians related to international relations branches of the universities in Turkey. Also, the questionnaires used for weighting of the criteria and the alternatives are filled by these experts.Some of our alternatives are: economic and political stability of the third country, the effect of another super power in that country, historical relations, security in that country, social facilities in the city in which the base will be built, the transportation security and difficulty from a main city that have an airport to the city will have the base etc. Over 20 criteria like these are determined which are categorized in social, political, economic and military aspects. As a result all the criteria and three alternatives are evaluated by different people who have background and experience to weight the criteria and alternatives as it must be in AHP and ANP evaluation system. The alternatives got their degrees all between 0 – 1 and the total is 1. At the end the DSS advices one of the alternatives as the best one to the decision maker according to the developed model and the evaluations of the experts.

Keywords: analytic hierarchical process, analytic network process, fuzzy logic, naval base place selection, multiple criteria decision making

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Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao

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Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.

Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah

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Stepped spillway includes several steps from the crest to the toe. The steps of stepped spillway could cause to decrease the energy with making energy distribution in the longitude mode and also to reduce the outcome speed. The aim of this study was to stimulate the stepped spillway combined with stilling basin-step using Fluent model and the turbulent superficial flow using RNG, K-ε. The free surface of the flow was monitored by VOF model. The velocity and the depth of the flow were measured by tail water depth by the numerical model and then the dissipated energy was calculated along the spillway. The results indicated that the stilling basin-step complex may cause energy dissipation increment in the stepped spillway. Also, the numerical model was suggested as an effective method to predict the circular and complicated flows in the stepped spillways.

Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent model, VOF model, K-ε model, energy distribution

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Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

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Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

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Authors: Roman Major, Klaudia Trembecka- Wojciga, Juergen Markus Lackner, Boguslaw Major

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The future and the development of science is therefore seen in interdisciplinary areas such as bio medical engineering. Self-assembled structures, similar to stem cell niches would inhibit fast division process and subsequently capture the stem cells from the blood flow. By means of surface topography and the stiffness as well as micro structure progenitor cells should be differentiated towards the formation of endothelial cells monolayer which effectively will inhibit activation of the coagulation cascade. The idea of the material surface development met the interest of the clinical institutions, which support the development of science in this area and are waiting for scientific solutions that could contribute to the development of heart assist systems. This would improve the efficiency of the treatment of patients with myocardial failure, supported with artificial heart assist systems. Innovative materials would enable the redesign, in the post project activity, construction of ventricular heart assist.

Keywords: bio-inspired materials, electron microscopy, haemocompatibility, niche-like structures, thin coatings

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Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

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In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

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Authors: Sarinra Thongmee, Krittaporn Prakobsaeng, Adithep Mingsuan, Chanyapak Polkhet, Supattra Wongsuk

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The purposes of this research and developmentwasto develop and evaluation of the clinical nursingpractice guideline (CNPG) for the prevention infection during intubation in patient with suspected or confirmedCOVID-19 patient. This study was developed by using the evidencebased practice model of Soukup (2000) asa conceptual framework. The study consisted of 4 steps: 1) situational analysis of intubation service in patientswith confirmed COVID-19; 2) development of the CNPG; 3) apply the NPG to trial; and 4) evaluation of the CNPG. The sample consisted of 52 nurse anesthetists and 25 infected or suspected COVID-19 patients. The research instrument consisted of 1) the CNPG, which was developed by the researchers; 2) the nurses anesthetist opinion questionnaire to the guideline; 3) the evaluation practice form; and 4) the nurse anesthetist knowledge test on nursing care of patients infected with COVID-19. Data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, and Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test. The results revealed this developed CNPG consists of 4 sections: 1)the CNPG for airborne precautions2) the preparation of anesthetic and intubation equipments3) the roles and duties of the intubation team, 4) the guidelines for intubation in suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients. The results of CNPG use found that 1)the provider: using NPG in providers revealed that nurse anesthetist had a higher mean of knowledge scores than before using CNPG statistically significant at the 0.05 level (p<0.01) and able to follow the NPG 100% inall activities. The anesthetic team was not infected with COVID-19 from intubation outside the operating room. 2)the client: the patient was safe, with no complications from intubation. Summary CNPG to prevent infection during reintubation of suspected or confirmedCOVID-19patient was appropriate and applicable to practice.

Keywords: clinical nursing practice guideline, prevention of infection, endotracheal intubation, COVID-19

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Authors: S. Y. Cicekli

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In this study, tree-dimensional model of tree was created by using terrestrial close range photogrammetry. For this close range photos were taken. Photomodeler Pro 5 software was used for camera calibration and create three-dimensional model of trees. In first test, three-dimensional model of a tree was created, in the second test three-dimensional model of three trees were created. This study aim is creating three-dimensional model of trees and indicate the use of close-range photogrammetry in forestry. At the end of the study, three-dimensional model of tree and three trees were created. This study showed that usability of close-range photogrammetry for monitoring tree and forests three-dimensional model.

Keywords: close- range photogrammetry, forest, tree, three-dimensional model

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Authors: Razi Khalafi

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Brain is the information processing center of the human body. Stimuli in form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modeling of the EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for the modeling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: Brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, eeg signal

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Authors: Yutae Lee

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In this paper, we consider the performance and availability of a redundancy model. The redundancy model is a form of resilience that ensures service availability in the event of component failure. This paper considers a 2N redundancy model. In the model there are at most one active service unit and at most one standby service unit. The active one is providing the service while the standby is prepared to take over the active role when the active fails. We design our analysis model using Stochastic Reward Nets, and then evaluate the performance and availability of 2N redundancy model using Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP).

Keywords: availability, performance, stochastic reward net, 2N redundancy

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Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Suicide wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. It is estimated that suicide-related cases have accounted for 15% of U.S. malpractice claims since 2006. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from U.S. state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. Research in recent years, however, has indicated that the majority of persons who end their lives do not say they are suicidal at their last medical or psychiatric contact. Near-term risk assessment—that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation—is needed. Our previous research employed structural equation modeling to predict lethal suicide risk--eight negative thought patterns (feeling like a burden on others, hopelessness, self-hatred, etc.) mediated by nine transdiagnostic clinical factors (mental torment, insomnia, substance abuse, PTSD intrusions, etc.) were combined to predict acute lethal suicide risk. This structural equation model, the Lethal Suicide Risk Pattern (LSRP), Acute model, had excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2(df) = 94.25(47)***, CFI = .98, RMSEA = .05, .90CI = .03-.06, p(RMSEA = .05) = .63. AIC = 340.25, ***p < .001.]. A further SEQ analysis was completed for this paper, adding a measure of Acute Suicide Ideation to the previous SEQ. Acceptable prediction model fit was no longer achieved [χ2(df) = 3.571, CFI > .953, RMSEA = .075, .90% CI = .065-.085, AIC = 529.550].This finding suggests that, in this additional study, immediate verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The LSRP and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training. Without this training, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current research—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.

Keywords: forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death

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Authors: Hatim Bastawi

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Three varieties of potatoes, namely Agria, Alpha and Diamant were evaluated for their suitability for industrial production of French fries. The evaluation was under taken after testing quality parameters of specific gravity, dry matter, peeling ratio, and defect after frying and panel test. The variety Agria ranked the best followed by Alpha with regard to the parameters tested. On the other hand, Diamant showed significantly higher defect percentage than the other cultivars. Also, it was significantly judged of low acceptance by panelists.

Keywords: cultivars, crisps, French fries

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Authors: Redouane Lombarkia

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To apply a new material model developed and validated for plain weave fabric CFRP composites usually used in stanchions in sub-cargo section in aircrafts. This work deals with the development of a numerical model of the fuselage section of commercial aircraft based on the pure explicit finite element method FEM within Abaqus/Explicit commercial code. The aim of this work is the evaluation of the energy absorption capabilities of a full-scale composite fuselage section, including sub-cargo stanchions, Drop tests were carried out from a free fall height of about 5 m and impact velocity of about 6 m∕s. To asses, the prediction efficiency of the proposed numerical modeling procedure, a comparison with literature existed experimental results was performed. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology to well capture crash damage mechanisms compared to experimental results

Keywords: crashworthiness, fuselage section, finite elements method (FEM), stanchions, specific energy absorption SEA

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Authors: Emily Saurman, David Lyle

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In Australia, a well serviced rural town might have a psychiatrist visit once-a-month with more frequent visits from a psychiatric nurse, but many have no resident access to mental health specialists. Access to specialist care, would not only reduce patient distress and benefit outcomes, but facilitate the effective use of limited resources. The Mental Health Emergency Care-Rural Access Program (MHEC-RAP) was developed to improve access to specialist emergency mental health care in rural and remote communities using telehealth technologies. However, there has been no current benchmark to gauge program efficiency or capacity; to determine whether the program activity is justifiably sufficient. The evaluation of MHEC-RAP used multiple methods and applied a modified theory of access to assess the program and its aim of improved access to emergency mental health care. This was the first evaluation of a telepsychiatry service to include a time and motion study design examining program time expenditure, efficiency, and capacity. The time and motion study analysis was combined with an observational study of the program structure and function to assess the balance between program responsiveness and efficiency. Previous program studies have demonstrated that MHEC-RAP has improved access and is used and effective. The findings from the time and motion study suggest that MHEC-RAP has the capacity to manage increased activity within the current model structure without loss to responsiveness or efficiency in the provision of care. Enhancing program responsiveness and efficiency will also support a claim of the program’s value for money. MHEC-RAP is a practical telehealth solution for improving access to specialist emergency mental health care. The findings from this evaluation have already attracted the attention of other regions in Australia interested in implementing emergency telepsychiatry programs and are now informing the progressive establishment of mental health resource centres in rural New South Wales. Like MHEC-RAP, these centres will provide rapid, safe, and contextually relevant assessments and advice to support local health professionals to manage mental health emergencies in the smaller rural emergency departments. Sharing the application of this methodology and research activity may help to improve access to and future evaluations of telehealth and telepsychiatry services for others around the globe.

Keywords: access, emergency, mental health, rural, time and motion

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Authors: Weiping Liu

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This paper presents an equation to calculate stock prices of different growth model. This equation is mathematically derived by using discounted cash flow method. It has the advantages of being very easy to use and very accurate. It can still be used even when the first stage is lengthy. This equation is more generalized because it can be used for all the three popular stock price models. It can be programmed into financial calculator or electronic spreadsheets. In addition, it can be extended to a multistage model. It is more versatile and efficient than the traditional methods.

Keywords: stock price, multistage model, different growth model, discounted cash flow method

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan, Murat Ahmet Ökmen

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In parallel with the population growth rate, the need of human being for energy sources in the world is gradually increasing incessant. The addition of this situation that demand for energy will be busier in the future, industrialization, the rise in living standards and technological developments, especially in developing countries. Alternative energy sources have aroused interest due to reasons such as serious environmental issues that were caused by fossil energy sources, potentially decreasing reserves, different social, political and economic problems caused by dependency on source providing countries and price instability. Especially in developed countries as European countries and also U.S.A particularly, alternative energy sources such as wind, geothermal, solar and biomass energy, hydrolic and hydrogen have been utilized in different forms, especially in electricity production. It includes a review of technical and environmental factors for energy sources that are potential replacements for fossil fuels and examines their fitness to supply the energy for a high standard of living on a worldwide basis. Despite all developments, fossil energy sources have been overwhelmingly used all around the world in primary energy sources consumption and they will outnumber other energy sources in the short term. Today, parallel to population growth and economy in Turkey, energy sources consumption is increasingly continuing. On one side, Turkey, currently 80% dependent on energy providing countries, has been heavily conducting fossil energy sources raw material quest within its own borders in order to lower the percentage, and the other side, there have been many researches for exploring potential of alternative energy sources and utilization. This case will lead to both a decrease in foreign energy dependency and a variety of energy sources. This study showed the current energy potential of Turkey and presents historical development of these energy sources and their share in electricity production. The research also seeked for answers to arguments that if the potential can be sufficient in the future. As a result of this study, it was concluded that observed geothermal energy, particularly active tectonic regions of Turkey, to have an alternative energy potential could be considered to be valuable on bass wind and solar energy.

Keywords: alternative energy sources, energy productions, hydroenergy, solar energy, wind energy

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Authors: James Purnama, Riri Fitri Sari

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We investigate the machine learning algorithm selection problem in the term of a depth image based eye gaze estimation, with respect to its essential difficulty in reducing the number of required training samples and duration time of training. Statistics based prediction accuracy are increasingly used to assess and evaluate prediction or estimation in gaze estimation. This article evaluates Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-Squared statistical analysis to assess machine learning methods on depth camera data for gaze estimation. There are 4 machines learning methods have been evaluated: Random Forest Regression, Regression Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Regression. The experiment results show that the Random Forest Regression has the lowest RMSE and the highest R-Squared, which means that it is the best among other methods.

Keywords: gaze estimation, gaze tracking, eye tracking, kinect, regression model, orange python

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Authors: Mohammed Saif Al-Saidi, John P. T. Mo

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Modern engineering assets are complex and very high in value. They are expected to function for years to come, with ability to handle the change in technology and ageing modification. The aging of an engineering asset and continues increase of vendors and contractors numbers forces the asset operation management (or Owner) to design an asset system which can capture these changes. Furthermore, an accurate performance measurement and risk evaluation processes are highly needed. Therefore, this paper explores the nature of the asset management system performance evaluation for an engineering asset based on the System Support Engineering (SSE) principles. The research work explores the asset support system from a range of perspectives, interviewing managers from across a refinery organisation. The factors contributing to complexity of an asset management system are described in context which clusters them into several key areas. It is proposed that SSE framework may then be used as a tool for analysis and management of asset. The paper will conclude with discussion of potential application of the framework and opportunities for future research.

Keywords: asset management, performance, evaluation, modern engineering, System Support Engineering (SSE)

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Authors: Christoph Schuler, Oriana Ponta

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Public Financial Management (PFM) reforms are promoted by various international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank, local development banks and the donor country community to strengthen governance and accountability in developing countries across the world. Reform efforts undertaken are often systematically measured against international best practice by the application of standardized analytical instruments such as the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Framework (PEFA) or the Poverty Reduction Action Plan (PARP). While those instruments analyze direct achievements of PFM reforms, the long-term benefits of such reforms for society remain untapped. This gives rise to the question why the concept of impact evaluation with its experimental or quasi-experimental settings in the form of randomized control trials has rarely been applied in the context of PFM reforms. To close this gap, this study provides examples where the concept of impact evaluation can be applied to PFM reforms and thereby shifting the focus from outcome towards a long-term impact. As it is a new approach, this study does not attempt to conduct a fully flagged impact evaluation of a certain PFM reform. However, it will outline, as a form of pre-test the applicability of the impact evaluation methodology in this context, for example, by more closely analyzing the commonly used indicators (for example within PEFA or PARP). This would mean to scrutinize these indicators as to how they were designed and how they are related to the long-term impact, they should be producing. The analysis of PFM reform indicators and their relation to long-term impacts should provide practitioners and scholars alike with new insights on how to strengthen the accountability of public service delivery through successful and sustainable PFM reforms.

Keywords: accountability, impact evaluation, PFM reforms, public financial management

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Authors: Benjamin Leiby, Darryl Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression

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Authors: Ayed Mouris Gad Elsayed Khalil

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This research focuses on historical techniques associated with the Lajevardin and Haft-Rangi production methods in tile production, with particular attention to identifying techniques for applying gold leaf to the surface of these historical glazed tiles. In this context, the history of the production of glazed, gilded and glazed Lajevardin ceramics from the Khwarizmanshahid and Mongol periods (11th to 13th centuries) was first evaluated in order to better understand the context and history of the methods of historical enameling. After a historical overview of glazed ceramic production techniques and the adoption of these techniques by civilizations, we focused on the niche production methods of glazes and Lajevardin glazes, two categories of decoration commonly found on tiles. A general method for classifying the different types of gold tiles was then introduced, applicable to tiles from to the Safavid period (16th-17th centuries). These categories include gold glazed Lajevardina tiles, haft rangi gold tiles, gold glazed monolithic tiles and gold mosaic tiles.

Keywords: ethnicity, multi-cultural, jewelry, craft techniquemycenaean, ceramic, provenance, pigmentAmorium, glass bracelets, image, Byzantine empire

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Authors: Kittivate Boonyopakorn

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The purposes of this study were to find the English competence of the public health volunteers and to develop the use of their English. The samples for the study were 41 public health village volunteers at Ban Prasukchai, in Thailand. The findings showed that the sum of all scores for the pre-test was 452, while the score for the post-test was 1,080. Therefore, the results of the experiment confirm that the post-test scores (1,080) significantly are higher than the pre-test (452). The mean score (N=41) for the pre-test was 11.02 while the mean score (N=41) for the post-test was 18.10. The standard deviation for the pre-test was 2.734; however, for the post-test it was 1.934. In addition to the experts-evaluated research tools, the results of the evaluation for the structured interviews (IOC) were 1 in value. The evaluation of congruence for the content with learning objectives (IOC) were 0.66 to 1.00 in value. The evaluation of congruence for the pre and post-test with learning objectives (IOC) are 1 in value.

Keywords: finding the English competency, developing public health, village volunteers

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Authors: Wann-Yun Shieh, Chin-Man Wang, Ya-Cheng Shieh

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This study aims to develop an objective scoring system to evaluate hand-eye coordination and hand dexterity for Parkinson’s disease. This system contains three boards, and each of them is implemented with the sensors to sense a user’s finger operations. The operations include the peg test, the block test, and the blind block test. A user has to use the vision, hearing, and tactile abilities to finish these operations, and the board will record the results automatically. These results can help the physicians to evaluate a user’s reaction, coordination, dexterity function. The results will be collected to a cloud database for further analysis and statistics. A researcher can use this system to obtain systematic, graphic reports for an individual or a group of users. Particularly, a deep learning model is developed to learn the features of the data from different users. This model will help the physicians to assess the Parkinson’s disease symptoms by a more intellective algorithm.

Keywords: deep learning, hand-eye coordination, reaction, hand dexterity

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Authors: Sadia Arshad, Ayesha Sohail, Sana Javed, Khadija Maqbool, Salma Kanwal

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The dynamical study of the carriers play an essential role in the evolution and global transmission of infectious diseases and will be discussed in this study. To make this approach novel, we will consider the fractional order model which is generalization of integer order derivative to an arbitrary number. Since the integration involved is non local therefore this property of fractional operator is very useful to study epidemic model for infectious diseases. An extended numerical method (ODE solver) is implemented on the model equations and we will present the simulations of the model for different values of fractional order to study the effect of carriers on transmission dynamics. Global dynamics of fractional model are established by using the reproduction number.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, Numerical simulations, epidemic model, transmission dynamics

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Authors: A. El-S. Makled, M. K. Al-Tamimi

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A mathematical model to predict the performance parameters (thrusts, chamber pressures, fuel mass flow rates, mixture ratios, and regression rates during firing time) of hybrid rocket motor (HRM) is evaluated. The internal ballistic (IB) hybrid combustion model assumes that the solid fuel surface regression rate is controlled only by heat transfer (convective and radiative) from flame zone to solid fuel burning surface. A laboratory HRM is designed, manufactured, and tested for low thrust profile space missions (10-15 N) and for validating the mathematical model (computer program). The polymer material and gaseous oxidizer which are selected for this experimental work are polymethyle-methacrylate (PMMA) and polyethylene (PE) as solid fuel grain and gaseous oxygen (GO₂) as oxidizer. The variation of various operational parameters with time is determined systematically and experimentally in firing of up to 20 seconds, and an average combustion efficiency of 95% of theory is achieved, which was the goal of these experiments. The comparison between recording fire data and predicting analytical parameters shows good agreement with the error that does not exceed 4.5% during all firing time. The current mathematical (computer) code can be used as a powerful tool for HRM analytical design parameters.

Keywords: hybrid combustion, internal ballistics, hybrid rocket motor, performance parameters

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Authors: Chunhong Zhao

Abstract:

Remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST) is vital to understand the land-atmosphere energy balance, hydrological cycle, and thus is widely used to describe the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. However, due to technical constraints, satellite thermal sensors are unable to provide LST measurement with both high spatial and high temporal resolution. Despite different downscaling techniques and algorithms to generate high spatiotemporal resolution LST. Four major metropolitan areas in Texas, USA: Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin all demonstrate UHI effects. Different cities are expected to have varying SUHI effect during the urban development trajectory. With the help of the Landsat, ASTER, and MODIS archives, this study focuses on the spatial patterns of UHIs and the seasonal and annual variation of these metropolitan areas. With Gaussian model, and Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelations (LISA), as well as data fusion methods, this study identifies the hotspots and the trajectory of the UHI phenomenon of the four cities. By making comparison analysis, the result can help to alleviate the advent effect of UHI and formulate rational urban planning in the long run.

Keywords: spatiotemporal analysis, land surface temperature, urban heat island evaluation, metropolitan areas of Texas, USA

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Authors: Johanna Renny Octavia, Kamila Okta Saarah

Abstract:

Smartphone nowadays is widely used by many people all over the world. However, people with vision impairment may experience difficulties that interfere with the proper usage of the smartphone. In Indonesia, the population of visually impaired is about 13 million people (estimated 285 million people worldwide). There are a number of mobile applications developed to enhance the use of smartphone by visually impaired. This paper discusses the usability evaluation of a mobile application, namely Ray Vision, designed to help visually impaired in using smartphone. A series of usability testing with a number of Indonesian visually impaired revealed 28 usability problems in the mobile application that led to 14 design recommendations. The redesigned application was then re-evaluated through another usability testing series. The results showed that all five usability criteria assessed were increased (usefulness by 13%, effectiveness by 27%, efficiency by 27%, satisfaction by 23%, and learnability by 12%). The System Usability Score (SUS) was also increased by 14.92%.

Keywords: mobile application, smartphone, usability evaluation, vision impaired

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

Abstract:

There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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