Search results for: population balance model

Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

Abstract:

Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: J. W. Kim, Y. R. Kwon, Y. J. Ho, H. M. Jeon, G. M. Eom

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate the association of anthropometry with static balance in the elderly and their possible gender difference. Forty six subjects (23 men and 23 women) participated in this study. COP (Center of Pressure) was measured on a force-platform during quiet feet-together standing. As outcome measures, mean distance were derived from the COP. Weight was significantly correlated with postural variable only in the elderly men. This result suggests that the gender should be considered when normalizing postural variables.

Keywords: body characteristics, postural balance, elderly, gender difference

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Shin-Ham Lee, Sheam-Chyun Lin

Abstract:

A two wheel inverted pendulum (TWIP) vehicle is built with two hub DC motors for motion control evaluation. Arduino Nano micro-processor is chosen as the control kernel for this electric test plant. Accelerometer and gyroscope sensors are built in to measure the tilt angle and angular velocity of the inverted pendulum vehicle. Since the TWIP has significantly hub motor dead zone and nonlinear system dynamics characteristics, the vehicle system is difficult to control by traditional model based controller. The intelligent model-free fuzzy sliding mode controller (FSMC) was employed as the main control algorithm. Then, intelligent controllers are designed for TWIP balance control, and two wheels synchronization control purposes.

Keywords: balance control, synchronization control, two-wheel inverted pendulum, TWIP

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Jitendra Singh, Vivek Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper, a susceptible infective susceptible mathematical model is proposed and analyzed where the migration of human population is given by migration function. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by direct contact of susceptible and infective populations with constant contact rate. The equilibria and their stability are studied by using the stability theory of ordinary differential equations and computer simulation. The model analysis shows that the spread of infectious disease increases when human population immigration increases in the habitat but it decreases if emigration increases.

Keywords: SIS (Susceptible Infective Susceptible) model, migration function, susceptible, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Jian Yang, Atsushi Yagi

Abstract:

Tree-grass coexistence system is of great importance for forest ecology. Mathematical models are being proposed to study the dynamics of tree-grass coexistence and the stability of the systems. However, few of the models concentrates on spatial dynamics of the tree-grass coexistence. In this study, we modified an age-structured continuous-space population model for forests, obtaining an age-structured continuous-space population model for the tree-grass competition model. In the model, for thermal competitions, adult trees can out-compete grass, and grass can out-compete seedlings. We mathematically studied the model to make sure tree-grass coexistence solutions exist. Numerical experiments demonstrated that a fraction of area that trees or grass occupies can affect whether the coexistence is stable or not. We also tried regulating the mortality of adult trees with other parameters and the fraction of area trees and grass occupies were fixed; results show that the mortality of adult trees is also a factor affecting the stability of the tree-grass coexistence in this model.

Keywords: population-structured models, stabilities of ecosystems, thermal competitions, tree-grass coexistence systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Anwar U. Haque, Waqar Asrar, Ashraf Ali Omar, Erwin Sulaeman, Jaffer Sayed Mohamed Ali

Abstract:

Due to the interference effects, the intrinsic aerodynamic parameters obtained from the individual component testing are always fundamentally different than those obtained for complete model testing. Consideration and limitation for such testing need to be taken into account in any design work related to the component buildup method. In this paper, the scaled model of a straight rectangular canard of a hybrid buoyant aircraft is tested at 50 m/s in IIUM-LSWT (Low-Speed Wind Tunnel). Model and its attachment with the balance are kept rigid to have results free from the aeroelastic distortion. Based on the velocity profile of the test section’s floor; the height of the model is kept equal to the corresponding boundary layer displacement. Balance measurements provide valuable but limited information of the overall aerodynamic behavior of the model. Zero lift coefficient is obtained at -2.2o and the corresponding drag coefficient was found to be less than that at zero angles of attack. As a part of the validation of low fidelity tool, the plot of lift coefficient plot was verified by the experimental data and except the value of zero lift coefficient, the overall trend has under-predicted the lift coefficient. Based on this comparative study, a correction factor of 1.36 is proposed for lift curve slope obtained from the panel method.

Keywords: wind tunnel testing, boundary layer displacement, lift curve slope, canard, aerodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: Enrique Barbieri

Abstract:

The basic disease-spread model described by three states denoting the susceptible (S), infectious (I), and removed (recovered and deceased) (R) sub-groups of the total population N, or SIR model, has been considered. Heuristic mitigating action profiles of the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical types may be developed in a control design setting for the purpose of reducing the transmission rate or improving the recovery rate parameters in the model. Even though the transmission and recovery rates are not control inputs in the traditional sense, a linear observer and feedback controller can be tuned to generate an asymptotic estimate of the transmission rate for a linearized, discrete-time version of the SIR model. Then, a set of mitigating actions is suggested to steer the basic reproduction number toward unity, in which case the disease does not spread, and the infected population state does not suffer from multiple waves. The special case of piecewise constant transmission rate is described and applied to a seventh-order SEIQRDP model, which segments the population into four additional states. The offline simulations in discrete time may be used to produce heuristic policies implemented by public health and government organizations.

Keywords: control of SIR, observer, SEIQRDP, disease spread

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Ella Sèdé Maforikan

Abstract:

Sustained water management requires quantitative information and the knowledge of spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrological system within the basin. This can be achieved through the research. Several studies have investigated both surface water and groundwater in Beterou catchment. However, there are few published papers on the application of the SWAT modeling in Beterou catchment. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of SWAT to simulate the water balance within the watershed. The inputs data consist of digital elevation model, land use maps, soil map, climatic data and discharge records. The model was calibrated and validated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI2) approach. The calibrated started from 1989 to 2006 with four years warming up period (1985-1988); and validation was from 2007 to 2020. The goodness of the model was assessed using five indices, i.e., Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the ratio of the root means square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), percent bias (PBIAS), the coefficient of determination (R²), and Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE). Results showed that SWAT model successfully simulated river flow in Beterou catchment with NSE = 0.79, R2 = 0.80 and KGE= 0.83 for the calibration process against validation process that provides NSE = 0.78, R2 = 0.78 and KGE= 0.85 using site-based streamflow data. The relative error (PBIAS) ranges from -12.2% to 3.1%. The parameters runoff curve number (CN2), Moist Bulk Density (SOL_BD), Base Flow Alpha Factor (ALPHA_BF), and the available water capacity of the soil layer (SOL_AWC) were the most sensitive parameter. The study provides further research with uncertainty analysis and recommendations for model improvement and provision of an efficient means to improve rainfall and discharges measurement data.

Keywords: watershed, water balance, SWAT modeling, Beterou

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Nikolaos Simantiris, Markos Avlonitis

Abstract:

This work builds a simulation platform, modeling the spatial diffusion of the invasive species Callinectes sapidus (blue crab) as a random walk, incorporating also generation, fatality, and fishing rates modeling the time evolution of its population. Antinioti lagoon in West Greece was used as a testbed for applying the simulation model. Field measurements from June 2020 to June 2021 on the lagoon’s setting, bathymetry, and blue crab juveniles provided the initial population simulation of blue crabs, as well as biological parameters from the current literature were used to calibrate simulation parameters. The scope of this study is to render the authors able to predict the evolution of the blue crab population in confined environments of the Ionian Islands region in West Greece. The first result of the simulation experiments shows the possibility for a robust prediction for blue crab population evolution in the Antinioti lagoon.

Keywords: antinioti lagoon, blue crab, stochastic simulation, random walk

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: Firman Riyudha, Endrik Mifta Shaiful

Abstract:

The spread of drug users is one kind of behavioral epidemiology that becomes a threat to every country in the world. This problem caused various crisis simultaneously, including financial or economic crisis, social, health, until human crisis. Most drug users are teenagers at school age. A new deterministic model would be constructed to determine the dynamics of the spread of drug users by considering level of education in a susceptible population. Based on the analytical model, two equilibria points were obtained; there were E₀ (zero user) and E₁ (endemic equilibrium). Existence of equilibrium and local stability of equilibria depended on the Basic Reproduction Ratio (R₀). This parameter was defined as the expected rate of secondary prevalence and primary prevalence in virgin population along spreading primary prevalence. The zero-victim equilibrium would be locally asymptotically stable if R₀ < 1 while if R₀ > 1 the endemic equilibrium would be locally asymptotically stable. The result showed that R₀ was proportional to the rate of interaction of each susceptible population based on educational level with the users' population. It is concluded that there was a need to be given a control in interaction, so that drug users population could be minimized. Numerical simulations were also provided to support analytical results.

Keywords: drugs users, level education, mathematical model, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: Nawal A. Abu-Shady, Ibrahim M. I. Hamoda, Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi, Mohammed K. Mohamed

Abstract:

Background: The aim of this work was to investigate the efficacy of Transcranial Magnetic Therapy (TMT) on balance in hemiparetic stroke patients. It was conducted in outpatient clinic and in BIODEX balance system lab in Faculty of Physical Therapy, Cairo University. Subjects and Methods: Thirty hemiparetic stroke patients from both sexes represent the sample of this study. The patients' ages ranged from 45 to 55 years. They were assigned randomly into two equal groups; the study group (GA) and the control group (GB). control group treated by selected therapeutic physical therapy program. GA treated by the same program of treatment as the GB in addition to TMT. The duration of treatment was six weeks, three times weekly.day after day. The different aspects of dynamic balance (overall stability, anteroposterior stability and mediolateral stability indices) were assessed pre and post treatment objectively by Biodex balance system and clinically by Short Form of Berg Balance Scale (SFBBS) in both groups. Results: Comparison of each variable pre and post treatment in each group revealed a significant improvement in all different parameters in both groups ( p < 0.01), however comparison between post results revealed that the GA showed a high significant improvement higher than the GB in all different variables.

Keywords: stroke, TMT, SFBBS, biodex balance system

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: H. A. Mansour

Abstract:

The objective of this research work is studying the water use prediction, prediction technology for water use by action agencies, and others involved in conservation, planning, and environmental assessment of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) simulation model. Models the important physical, processes governing erosion in Egypt (climate, infiltration, runoff, ET, detachment by raindrops, detachment by flowing water, deposition, etc.). Simulation of the non-uniform slope, soils, cropping/management., and Egyptian databases for climate, soils, and crops. The study included important parameters in Egyptian conditions as follows: Water Balance & Percolation, Soil Component (Tillage impacts), Plant Growth & Residue Decomposition, Overland Flow Hydraulics. It could be concluded that we can adapt the WEPP simulation model to determining the previous important parameters under Egyptian conditions.

Keywords: WEPP, adaptation, soil properties, tillage impacts, water balance, soil percolation

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Yousef S. Kh. S. Hashem

Abstract:

Accurate estimation of initial gas in place (IGIP) plays an important factor in the decision to develop a gas field. One of the methods that are available in the industry to estimate the IGIP is material balance. This method required that the well has to be shut-in while pressure is measured as it builds to average reservoir pressure. Since gas demand is high and shut-in well surveys are very expensive, flowing gas material balance (FGMB) is sometimes used instead of material balance. This work investigated the effect of reservoir properties (pressure, permeability, and reservoir size) on the estimation of IGIP when using FGMB. A gas reservoir simulator that accounts for friction loss, wellbore storage, and the non-Darcy effect was used to simulate 165 different possible causes (3 pressures, 5 reservoir sizes, and 11 permeabilities). Both tubing pressure and bottom-hole pressure were analyzed using FGMB. The results showed that the FGMB method is very sensitive for tied reservoirs (k < 10). Also, it showed which method is best to be used for different reservoir properties. This study can be used as a guideline for the application of the FGMB method.

Keywords: flowing material balance, gas reservoir, reserves, gas simulator

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Ghada Mohamed Rashad, Doaa Ayoub Elimy, Mohamed Hussein Elgendy, Ahmed Mohamed Fathi Elshiwi, Mahmoud Ghazy

Abstract:

Background: Flat feet cause changes in foot mobility, foot posture, and load distribution under the foot which influences dynamic balance, that is essential in activities of daily living and for optimal performance in sports activity. Purpose: To investigate the effect of flat feet on dynamic balance including overall stability index (OAI), anteroposterior stability index (APSI) and mediolateral stability index (MLSI). Study Design: The design of the study was an experimental design. Subjects: Forty subjects from both sexes were selected from the Faculty of Physical Therapy, Cairo University, their mean age (23.55 ± 1.74 ) years, divided into two groups, group A (8 males and 12 females) with flat feet, and group B (9 males and 11 females) with normal feet. Methods: The Navicular Drop Test was used to determine if the feet were pronated and Biodex Balance System was used to assess dynamic balance at level 8 and level 4 for both groups. Results: There was no significant difference in dynamic balance including (OSI, APSI and MLSI) of the Biodex at stability level (8) (most stable) (p = 0.56). While there was a significant difference between both groups in all dependent variables at stability level (4) (less stable level) (p = 0.0001). Conclusion: It may be concluded that flat feet have an effect on dynamic balance and there is balance affection in subjects with flat feet.

Keywords: flat feet, dynamic balance, postural stability, types of flat feet, eversion strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 523

Authors: Badriah Alayidi, Emad Alyahya

Abstract:

Background: Most people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) report worsening balance as the condition progresses. Poor balance control is also well known to be a significant risk factor for both falling and fear of falling. The increased risk of falls with disease progression thus makes balance control an essential target of gait rehabilitation amongst people with MS. Intervention programs have developed various methods to improve balance control, and accumulating evidence suggests that exercise programs may help people with MS improve their balance. Among these methods, virtual reality (VR) is growing in popularity as a balance-training technique owing to its potential benefits, including better compliance and greater user happiness. However, it is not clear if a VR environment will induce different balance control mechanisms in MS as compared to healthy individuals or traditional environments. Therefore, this study aims to examine how individuals with MS control their balance in a VR setting. Methodology: The proposed study takes an empirical approach to estimate and determine the role of balance response in persons with MS using a VR environment. It will use primary data collected through patient observations, physiological and biomechanical evaluation of balance, and data analysis. Results: The preliminary systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that there was variability in terms of the outcome assessing balance response in people with MS. The preliminary results of these assessments have the potential to provide essential indicators of the progression of MS and contribute to the individualization of treatment and evaluation of the interventions’ effectiveness. The literature describes patients who have had the opportunity to experiment in VR settings and then used what they have learned in the real world, suggesting that this VR setting could be more appealing than conditional settings. The findings of the proposed study will be beneficial in estimating and determining the effect of VR on balance control in persons with MS. In previous studies, VR was shown to be an interesting approach to neurological rehabilitation, but more data are needed to support this approach in MS. Conclusions: The proposed study enables an assessment of balance and evaluations of a variety of physiological implications related to neural activity as well as biomechanical implications related to movement analysis.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, virtual reality, postural control, balance

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: S. Benbia, W. Bouafia, D. Khellaf, A. Chennaf, M. Yahia

Abstract:

Our study was designed to highlight changes in certain biochemical parameters (CH, TG, HDL, GOT, GPT, LDL, and CRP), obese women infertile fertile witnesses and research potential pathophysiological link between obesity and infertility in this population of women. This practical work was focused on a population of 24 obese women infertile, compared to controls, subjects without any pathology causing disruption of parameters to be studied to determine the contribution of obesity in the etiology of infertility. The assay results revealed a highly significant difference between the two groups in serum CH, TG, HDL, TGO and TGP (P < 0.0001) and in the rate of LDL (p = 0.0017) and CRP (p = 0.02). The hormonal balance also shows a significant difference between the two groups (P < 0.0001).The present study indicates that obesity is associated with infertility, but there is no direct pathophysiological link between obesity and infertility has not been determined. Further in-depth studies are needed to determine the exact mechanism by which overweight leads to female infertility.

Keywords: obesity, fertility, infertility, biochemical, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 434

Authors: Tarik Ozmen

Abstract:

The soccer players need good dynamic balance and jumping performance for dribbling, crossing rival, and to be effective in high balls during soccer game. The quadriceps angle (Q-angle) is used to assess biomechanics of the patellofemoral joint in the musculoskeletal medicine. The Q angle is formed by the intersection of two lines drawing from the anterior superior iliac spine to the centre of the patella and to the midline of the tibia tuberosity. Studies have shown that the Q angle is inversely associated with quadriceps femoris strength. The purpose of this study was to investigate relationship between dynamic balance, jumping performance and Q-angle in soccer players. Thirty male soccer players (mean ± SD: age, 15.23 ± 0.56 years, height, 170 ± 8.37 cm, weight, 61.36 ± 6.04 kg) participated as volunteer in this study. Dynamic balance of the participants were evaluated at directions of anterior (A), posteromedial (PM) and posterolateral (PL) with Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT). Each participant was instructed to reach as far as with the non-dominant leg in each of the 3 directions while maintaining dominant leg stance. Leg length was used to normalize excursion distances by dividing the distance reached by leg length and then multiplying the result by 100. The jumping performance was evaluated by squat jump using a contact mat. A universal (standard) goniometer was used to measure the Q angle in standing position. The Q angle was not correlated with directions of SEBT (A: p = 0.32, PM: p = 0.06, PL: p = 0.37). The squat jump height was not correlated with Q-angle (p = 0.21). The findings of this study suggest that there are no significant relationships between dynamic balance, jumping performance and Q-angle in soccer players. Further studies should investigate relationship between balance ability, athletic performance and Q-angle with larger sample size in soccer players.

Keywords: balance, jump height, Q angle, soccer

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Brahim Brahmi, Mohammed Hamza Laraki, Mohammad Habibur Rahman, Islam M. Rasedul, M. Assad Uz-Zaman

Abstract:

The humanoid robot, specifically the NAO robot must be able to provide a highly dynamic performance on the soccer field. Maintaining the balance of the humanoid robot during the required motion is considered as one of a challenging problems especially when the robot is subject to external disturbances, as contact with other robots. In this paper, a dynamic controller is proposed in order to ensure a robust walking (stabilization) and to improve the dynamic balance of the robot during its contact with the environment (external disturbances). The generation of the trajectory of the center of mass (CoM) is done by a model predictive controller (MPC) conjoined with zero moment point (ZMP) technique. Taking into account the properties of the rotational dynamics of the whole-body system, a modified previous control mixed with feedback control is employed to manage the angular momentum and the CoM’s acceleration, respectively. This latter is dedicated to provide a robust gait of the robot in the presence of the external disturbances. Simulation results are presented to show the feasibility of the proposed strategy.

Keywords: preview control, Nao robot, model predictive control

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, J. O. Adekunle

Abstract:

The incubation period is defined as the time from infection with a microorganism to development of symptoms. In this research, two disease models: one with incubation period and another without incubation period were studied. The study involves the use of a  mathematical model with a single incubation period. The test for the existence and stability of the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states for both models were carried out. The fourth order Runge-Kutta method was used to solve both models numerically. Finally, a computer program in MATLAB was developed to run the numerical experiments. From the results, we are able to show that the endemic equilibrium state of the model with incubation period is locally asymptotically stable whereas the endemic equilibrium state of the model without incubation period is unstable under certain conditions on the given model parameters. It was also established that the disease free equilibrium states of the model with and without incubation period are locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, results from numerical experiments using empirical data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) showed that the overall population of the infected people for the model with incubation period is higher than that without incubation period. We also established from the results obtained that as the transmission rate from susceptible to infected population increases, the peak values of the infected population for the model with incubation period decrease and are always less than those for the model without incubation period.

Keywords: asymptotic stability, Hartman-Grobman stability criterion, incubation period, Routh-Hurwitz criterion, Runge-Kutta method

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Kunihisa Kakumoto

Abstract:

“Purpose”: Global environmental issues are now being raised in a global dimension. By predicting sprawl phenomena beyond the limits of nature with algorithms, we can expect to protect our social life within the limits of nature. It turns out that the sustainable state of the planet now consists in maintaining a balance between the capabilities of nature and the possibilities of our social life. The amount of water on earth is finite. Sustainability is therefore highly dependent on water capacity. A certain amount of water is stored in the forest by planting and green space, and the amount of water can be considered in relation to the green space. CO2 is also absorbed by green plants. "Possible measurements and methods": The concept of the solar community has been introduced in technical papers on the occasion of many international conferences. The solar community concept is based on data collected from one solar model house. This algorithmic study simulates the amount of water stored by lush green vegetation. In addition, we calculated and compared the amount of CO2 emissions from the Taiyo Community and the amount of CO2 reduction from greening. Based on the trial calculation results of these solar communities, we are simulating the sustainable state of the earth as an algorithm trial calculation result. We believe that we should also consider the composition of this solar community group using digital technology as control technology. "Conclusion": We consider the solar community as a prototype for finding sustainable conditions for the planet. The role of water is very important as the supply capacity of water is limited. However, the circulation of social life is not constructed according to the mechanism of nature. This simulation trial calculation is explained using the total water supply volume as an example. According to this process, algorithmic calculations consider the total capacity of the water supply and the population and habitable numbers of the area. Green vegetated land is very important to keep enough water. Green vegetation is also very important to maintain CO2 balance. A simulation trial calculation is possible from the relationship between the CO2 emissions of the solar community and the amount of CO2 reduction due to greening. In order to find this total balance and sustainable conditions, the algorithmic simulation calculation takes into account lush vegetation and total water supply. Research to find sustainable conditions is done by simulating an algorithmic model of the solar community as a prototype. In this one prototype example, it's balanced. The activities of our social life must take place within the permissive limits of natural mechanisms. Of course, we aim for a more ideal balance by utilizing auxiliary digital control technology such as AI.

Keywords: solar community, sustainability, prototype, algorithmic simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Seyed Salahedin Naghshbandi, Zahra Bozorgzadeh, Leila Zakizadeh, Siavash Hamidzadeh

Abstract:

From the sport economy experts point of view, the existence of competitive balance among sport leagues and its numerous effects on league is an important and undeniable issue. In general, sport events fans are so eager to unpredictable results of competition in order to reach the top of excitement and necessary motivation for following competitions. The purpose of this research is to consider and compare the competitive balance among five provisional European football leagues (Spain, England, Italy, France and Germany) during 1966 - 2015 seasons. Research data are secondary and obtained from Premier League final tables of selected countries in 1966 - 2015 seasons. For analyzing data, C5 and C5ICB indicators used. whatever these indicators be less, more balance establishes in the league and vice-versa. The result showed that Le champion of France reached from 1,259 to 1,395; Italy Serie-A league from 1,316 to 1,432; England premier league from 1, 342 to 1,455; Germany Bundesliga from 1,238 to 1,465 and Spain La liga from 1,295 to 1,495. So by comparing C5ICB charts during 1966 - 2015 seasons, La liga of Spain moved more toward imbalance and enjoyed less balance with other European Leagues. Also, La champion of France during the mentioned season, enjoyed less imbalance and preserved its relative balance with monotonous process. It seems that football in France has been followed as stable during 1966 to 2015, and prediction of results was more difficult and competitions were so attractive for spectators, but in Italy, England, Germany, and Spain there were less balance, respectively.

Keywords: competitive balance, professional football league, competition, C5ICB

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Mehaiguene Madjid, Meddi Mohamed

Abstract:

The results of applying the model WEAP 21 or 'Water Evaluation and Planning System' in Upper and Middle Cheliff are presented in cartographic and graphic forms by considering two scenarios: -Reference scenario 1961-1990, -Climate change scenarios (low and high) for 2020 and 2050. These scenarios are presented together in the results and compared them to know the impact on aquatic systems and water resources. For the low scenario for 2050, a decrease in the rate of runoff / infiltration will be 81.4 to 3.7 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. While for the high scenario for 2050, the reduction will be 87.2 to 78.9 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. Comparing the two scenarios, shows that the water supplied will increase by 216.7 Hm3 to 596 Hm3 up to 2050 if we do not take account of climate change. Whereas, if climate change will decrease step by step: from 2010 to 2026: for the climate change scenario (high scenario) by 2050, water supplied from 346 Hm3 to 361 Hm3. That of the reference scenario (1961-1990) will increase to 379.7 Hm3 in 2050. This is caused by the increased demand (increased population, irrigated area, etc ). The balance water management basin is positive for the different Horizons and different situations. If we do not take account of climate change will be the outflow of 5881.4 Hm3. This excess at the basin can be used as part of a transfer for example.

Keywords: balance water, management basin, climate change scenario, Upper and Middle Cheliff

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Shayla He

Abstract:

Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Mahesh K. Jat, Ankan Jana, Mahender Choudhary

Abstract:

Rapid population and economic growth resulted in changes in large-scale land use land cover (LULC) changes. Changes in the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface and its impact on climate are of primary concern nowadays. Different approaches, ranging from location-based relationships or modelling earth surface - atmospheric interaction through modelling techniques like surface energy balance (SEB) are used in the recent past to examine the relationship between changes in Earth surface land cover and climatic characteristics like temperature and precipitation. A remote sensing-based model i.e., Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), has been used to estimate the surface heat fluxes over Mahi Bajaj Sagar catchment (India) from 2001 to 2020. Landsat ETM and OLI satellite data are used to model the SEB of the area. Changes in observed precipitation and temperature, obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been correlated with changes in surface heat fluxes to understand the relative contributions of LULC change in changing these climatic variables. Results indicate a noticeable impact of LULC changes on climatic variables, which are aligned with respective changes in SEB components. Results suggest that precipitation increases at a rate of 20 mm/year. The maximum and minimum temperature decreases and increases at 0.007 ℃ /year and 0.02 ℃ /year, respectively. The average temperature increases at 0.009 ℃ /year. Changes in latent heat flux and sensible heat flux positively correlate with precipitation and temperature, respectively. Variation in surface heat fluxes influences the climate parameters and is an adequate reason for climate change. So, SEB modelling is helpful to understand the LULC change and its impact on climate.

Keywords: LULC, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, SEBAL, landsat, precipitation, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

Abstract:

Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Elham Azimzadeh, Fahimeh Khorshidi, Alireza Farsi

Abstract:

Balance impairment and fear of falling in older adults may reduce their quality of life. Reactive balance training could improve rapid postural responses and fall prevention in the elderly during daily tasks. Performing postural training and simultaneously cognitive dual tasks could be similar to the daily circumstances. Purpose: This study aimed to determine the effect of balance training on stable and unstable surfaces under dual cognitive task conditions on postural control and fear of falling in the elderly. Methods: Thirty non-fallers of older adults (65-75 years) were randomly assigned to two training groups: stable-surface (n=10), unstable-surface (n=10), or a control group (n=10). The intervention groups underwent six weeks of balance training either on a stable (balance board) or an unstable (wobble board) surface while performing a cognitive dual task. The control group received no balance intervention. COP displacements in the anterioposterior (AP) and mediolateral (ML) directions using a computerized balance board, functional balance using TUG, and fear of falling using FES-I were measured in all participants before and after the interventions. Summary of Results: Mixed ANOVA (3 groups * 2 times) with repeated measures and post hoc test showed a significant improvement in both intervention groups in AP index (F= 11/652, P= 0/0002) and functional balance (F= 9/961, P= 0/0001). However, the unstable surface training group had more improvement. However, the fear of falling significantly improved after training on an unstable surface (p= 0/035). All groups had no significant improvement in the ML index (p= 0/817). In the present study, there was an improvement in the AP index after balance training. Conclusion: Unstable surface training may reduce reaction time in posterior ankle muscle activity. Furthermore, focusing attention on cognitive tasks can lead to maintaining balance unconsciously. Most of the daily activities need attention distribution among several activities. So, balance training concurrent to a dual cognitive task is challenging and more similar to the real world. According to the specificity of the training principle, it may improve functional independence and fall prevention in the elderly.

Keywords: cognitive dual task, elderly, fear of falling, postural control, unstable surface

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Nader Al-Rashidi, David Greenhalgh

Abstract:

Mathematical modelling techniques are now being used by health organizations worldwide to help understand the likely impact that intervention strategies treatment options and combinations of these have on the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the people who inject drugs (PWID) population. In this poster, we develop a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model to approximate the spread of the HCV in a PWID population that has been divided into two groups by time since onset of injection. The model assumes that after injection needles adopt the most infectious state of their previous state or that of the PWID who last injected with them. Using analytical techniques, we find that the model behaviour is determined by the basic reproductive number R₀, where R₀ = 1 is a critical threshold separating two different outcomes. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R₀ ≤ 1 and unstable if R₀ > 1. Additionally, we make some simulations where have confirmed that the model tends to this endemic equilibrium value with realistic parameter values giving an HCV prevalence.

Keywords: hepatitis C, people who inject drugs, HCV, PWID

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Ansari Mohammad Reza, Hiroko Ono

Abstract:

In this study, we investigated how much of the urban facilities are fairly distributing in the city of Kabul based on the factor of population. To find the answer to this question we simulated a fair model for the distribution of investigated facilities in the city which is proposed based on the consideration of two factors; the number of users for each facility and the average distance of reach of each facility. Then the model was evaluated to make sure about its efficiency. And finally, the two—the existing pattern and the simulation model—were compared to find the degree of bias in the existing pattern of distribution of facilities in the city. The result of the study clearly clarified that the facilities are not fairly distributed in Kabul city based on the factor of population. Our analysis also revealed that the education services and the parks are the most and the worst fair distributed facilities in this regard.

Keywords: Afghanistan, ArcGIS Software, Kabul City, fair distribution, urban facilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: R. Harihara Prakash, Shweta R. Parikh, Sangna S. Sheth

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to explore the usefulness of the Mini-BESTest compared to the Berg Balance Scale in evaluating balance in people with Parkinson's Disease (PD) of varying severity. Evaluation were done to obtain (1) the distribution of patients scores to look for ceiling effects, (2) concurrent validity with severity of disease, and (3) the sensitivity & specificity of separating people with or without postural response deficits. Methods and Material: Seventy-seven(77) people with Parkinson's Disease were tested for balance deficits using the Berg Balance Scale, Mini-BESTest. Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) III and the Hoehn & Yahr (H&Y) disease severity scales were used for classification. Materials used in this study were case record sheet, chair without arm rests or wheels, Incline ramp, stopwatch, a box, 3 meter distance measured out and marked on the floor with tape [from chair]. Statistical analysis used: Multiple Linear regression was carried out of UPDRS jointly on the two scores for the Berg and Mini-BESTest. Receiver operating characteristic curves for classifying people into two groups based on a threshold for the H&Y score, to discriminate between mild PD versus more severe PD.Correlation co-efficient to find relativeness between the two variables. Results: The Mini-BESTest is highly correlated with the Berg (r = 0.732,P < 0.001), but avoids the ceiling compression effect of the Berg for mild PD (skewness −0.714 Berg, −0.512 Mini-BESTest). Consequently, the Mini-BESTest is more effective than the Berg for predicting UPDRS Motor score (P < 0.001 Mini-BESTest versus P = 0.72 Berg), and for discriminating between those with and without postural response deficits as measured by the H&Y (ROC).

Keywords: balance, berg balance scale, MINI BESTest, parkinson's disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Ayoola Femi J., Kayode Balogun

Abstract:

In some African Countries, increase in Gross Domestic Products (GDP) has not translated to real development as expected by common-man in his household. For decades, a lot of contests on economic growth and development has been a nagging issues. The focus of this study is to analysing the effects of economic determinants/factors on economic advances in some African Countries by employing panel data analysis. The yearly (1990-2013) data were obtained from the world economic outlook database of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for probing the effects of these variables on growth rate in some selected African countries which include: Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burundi, Cape-Verde, Cameroun, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic Of Congo, Cote di’ Voire, Egypt, Equatorial-Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, and Uganda. The effects of 6 macroeconomic variables on GDP were critically examined. We used 37 Countries GDP as our dependent variable and 6 independent variables used in this study include: Total Investment (totinv), Inflation (inf), Population (popl), current account balance (cab), volume of imports of goods and services (vimgs), and volume of exports of goods and services (vexgs). The results of our analysis shows that total investment, population and volume of exports of goods and services strongly affect the economic growth. We noticed that population of these selected countries positively affect the GDP while total investment and volume of exports negatively affect GDP. On the contrary, inflation, current account balance and volume of imports of goods and services’ contribution to the GDP are insignificant. The results of our analysis shows that total investment, population and volume of exports of goods and services strongly affect the economic growth. We noticed that population of these selected countries positively affect the GDP while total investment and volume of exports negatively affect GDP. On the contrary, inflation, current account balance and volume of imports of goods and services’ contribution to the GDP are insignificant. The results of this study would be useful for individual African governments for developing a suitable and appropriate economic policies and strategies. It will also help investors to understand the economic nature and viability of Africa as a continent as well as its individual countries.

Keywords: African countries, economic growth and development, gross domestic products, static panel data models

Procedia PDF Downloads 464