Search results for: Random Forest
1969 Prediction of Live Birth in a Matched Cohort of Elective Single Embryo Transfers
Authors: Mohsen Bahrami, Banafsheh Nikmehr, Yueqiang Song, Anuradha Koduru, Ayse K. Vuruskan, Hongkun Lu, Tamer M. Yalcinkaya
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In recent years, we have witnessed an explosion of studies aimed at using a combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and time-lapse imaging data on embryos to improve IVF outcomes. However, despite promising results, no study has used a matched cohort of transferred embryos which only differ in pregnancy outcome, i.e., embryos from a single clinic which are similar in parameters, such as: morphokinetic condition, patient age, and overall clinic and lab performance. Here, we used time-lapse data on embryos with known pregnancy outcomes to see if the rich spatiotemporal information embedded in this data would allow the prediction of the pregnancy outcome regardless of such critical parameters. Methodology—We did a retrospective analysis of time-lapse data from our IVF clinic utilizing Embryoscope 100% of the time for embryo culture to blastocyst stage with known clinical outcomes, including live birth vs nonpregnant (embryos with spontaneous abortion outcomes were excluded). We used time-lapse data from 200 elective single transfer embryos randomly selected from January 2019 to June 2021. Our sample included 100 embryos in each group with no significant difference in patient age (P=0.9550) and morphokinetic scores (P=0.4032). Data from all patients were combined to make a 4th order tensor, and feature extraction were subsequently carried out by a tensor decomposition methodology. The features were then used in a machine learning classifier to classify the two groups. Major Findings—The performance of the model was evaluated using 100 random subsampling cross validation (train (80%) - test (20%)). The prediction accuracy, averaged across 100 permutations, exceeded 80%. We also did a random grouping analysis, in which labels (live birth, nonpregnant) were randomly assigned to embryos, which yielded 50% accuracy. Conclusion—The high accuracy in the main analysis and the low accuracy in random grouping analysis suggest a consistent spatiotemporal pattern which is associated with pregnancy outcomes, regardless of patient age and embryo morphokinetic condition, and beyond already known parameters, such as: early cleavage or early blastulation. Despite small samples size, this ongoing analysis is the first to show the potential of AI methods in capturing the complex morphokinetic changes embedded in embryo time-lapse data, which contribute to successful pregnancy outcomes, regardless of already known parameters. The results on a larger sample size with complementary analysis on prediction of other key outcomes, such as: euploidy and aneuploidy of embryos will be presented at the meeting.Keywords: IVF, embryo, machine learning, time-lapse imaging data
Procedia PDF Downloads 931968 Colonization Pattern and Growth of Reintroduced Tiger (Panthera tigris) Population at Central India
Authors: M. S. Sarkar, J. A. Johnson, S. Sen, G. K. Saha, K. Ramesh
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There is growing recognition of several important roles played by tigers for maintaining sustainable biodiversity at diverse ecosystems in South and South-East Asia. Only <3200 individuals are left in the wild because of poaching and habitat loss. Thus, restoring wild population is an emerging as well as important conservation initiative, but such efforts still remain challenging due to their elusive and solitary behavior. After careful translocation of few individuals, how reintroduced individuals colonize into suitable habitat and achieve stable stage population through reproduction is vital information for forest managers and policy makers of its 13 distribution range countries. Four wild and two captive radio collared tigers were reintroduced at Panna Tiger Reserve, Madhya-pradesh, India during 2009-2014. We critically examined their settlement behavior and population growth over the period. Results from long term telemetry data showed that male explored larger areas rapidly in short time span, while females explored small area in long time period and with significant high rate of movement in both sexes during exploratory period. Significant difference in home range sizes of tigers were observed in exploratory and settlement period. Though all reintroduced tigers preferred densely vegetated undisturbed forest patches within the core area of tiger reserve, a niche based k select analysis showed that individual variation in habitat selection was prominent among reintroduced tigers. Total 18 litter of >42 known cubs were born with low mortality rate, high maternity rate, high observed growth rate and short generation time in both the sexes. The population achieved its carrying capacity in a very short time span, marking success of this current tiger conservation programme. Our study information could provide significant insights on the tiger biology of translocated tigers with implication for future conservation strategies that consider translocation based recovery in their range countries.Keywords: reintroduction, tiger, home range, demography
Procedia PDF Downloads 2191967 Multi-Agent Searching Adaptation Using Levy Flight and Inferential Reasoning
Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber
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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.Keywords: Levy flight, distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence
Procedia PDF Downloads 1441966 Reconsidering the Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction of the Wet Zone of Sri Lanka: A Zooarchaeological Perspective
Authors: Kelum N. Manamendra-Arachchi, Kalangi Rodrigo
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Bones, teeth, and shells have been acknowledged over the last two centuries as evidence of chronology, Palaeo-environment, and human activity. Faunal traces are valid evidence of past situations because they have properties that have not changed over long periods of time. Sri Lanka has been known as an Island, which has a diverse variation of prehistoric occupation among ecological zones. Defining the Paleoecology of the past societies has been an archaeological thought developed in the 1960s. It is mainly concerned with the reconstruction from available geological and biological evidence of past biota, populations, communities, landscapes, environments, and ecosystems. Sri Lanka has dealt with this subject and considerable research has been already undertaken. The fossil and material record of Sri Lanka’s Wet Zone tropical forests continues from c. 38,000–34,000 ybp. This early and persistent human fossil, technical, and cultural florescence, as well as a collection of well-preserved tropical-forest rock shelters with associated ' on-site ' Palaeoenvironmental records, makes Sri Lanka a central and unusual case study to determine the extent and strength of early human tropical forest encounters. Excavations carried out in prehistoric caves in the low country wet zone has shown that in the last 50,000 years, the temperature in the lowland rainforests has not exceeded 5 degrees. Based on Semnopithecus Priam (Gray Langur) remains unearned from wet zone prehistoric caves, it has been argued that periods of momentous climate changes during the LGM and Terminal Pleistocene/Early Holocene boundary, with a recognizable preference for semi-open ‘Intermediate’ rainforest or edges. Continuous Genus Acavus and Oligospira occupation along with uninterrupted horizontal pervasive of Canarium sp. (‘kekuna’ nut) have proven that temperatures in the lowland rain forests have not changed by at least 5 oC over the last 50,000 years. Site Catchment or Territorial analysis cannot be no longer defensible, due to time-distance based factors as well as optimal foraging theory failed as a consequences of prehistoric people were aware of the decrease in cost-benefit ratio and located sites, and generally played out a settlement strategy that minimized the ratio of energy expanded to energy produced.Keywords: palaeo-environment, prehistory, palaeo-ecology, zooarchaeology
Procedia PDF Downloads 1241965 Asia Pacific University of Technology and Innovation
Authors: Esther O. Adebitan, Florence Oyelade
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The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) was initiated by the UN member nations’ aspiration for the betterment of human life. It is expressed in a set of numerical and time-bound targets. In more recent time, the aspiration is shifting away from just the achievement to the sustainability of achieved MDGs beyond the 2015 target. The main objective of this study was assessing how much the hotel industry within the Nigerian Federal Capital Territory (FCT) as a member of the global community is involved in the achievement of sustainable MDGs within the FCT. The study had two population groups consisting of 160 hotels and the communities where these are located. Stratified random sampling technique was adopted in selecting 60 hotels based on large, medium and small hotels categorisation, while simple random sampling technique was used to elicit information from 30 residents of three of the hotels host communities. The study was guided by tree research questions and two hypotheses aimed to ascertain if hotels see the need to be involved in, and have policies in pursuit of achieving sustained MDGs, and to determine public opinion regarding hotels contribution towards the achievement of the MDGs in their communities. A 22 item questionnaire was designed and administered to hotel managers while 11 item questionnaire was designed and administered to hotels’ host communities. Frequency distribution and percentage as well as Chi-square were used to analyse data. Results showed no significant involvement of the hotel industry in achieving sustained MDGs in the FCT and that there was disconnect between the hotels and their immediate communities. The study recommended that hotels should, as part of their Corporate Social Responsibility pick at least one of the goals to work on in order to be involved in the attainment of enduring Millennium Development Goals.Keywords: MDGs, hotels, FCT, host communities, corporate social responsibility
Procedia PDF Downloads 4191964 Assessment of Agricultural Land Use Land Cover, Land Surface Temperature and Population Changes Using Remote Sensing and GIS: Southwest Part of Marmara Sea, Turkey
Authors: Melis Inalpulat, Levent Genc
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Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes due to human activities and natural causes have become a major environmental concern. Assessment of temporal remote sensing data provides information about LULC impacts on environment. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is one of the important components for modeling environmental changes in climatological, hydrological, and agricultural studies. In this study, LULC changes (September 7, 1984 and July 8, 2014) especially in agricultural lands together with population changes (1985-2014) and LST status were investigated using remotely sensed and census data in South Marmara Watershed, Turkey. LULC changes were determined using Landsat TM and Landsat OLI data acquired in 1984 and 2014 summers. Six-band TM and OLI images were classified using supervised classification method to prepare LULC map including five classes including Forest (F), Grazing Land (G), Agricultural Land (A), Water Surface (W), and Residential Area-Bare Soil (R-B) classes. The LST image was also derived from thermal bands of the same dates. LULC classification results showed that forest areas, agricultural lands, water surfaces and residential area-bare soils were increased as 65751 ha, 20163 ha, 1924 ha and 20462 ha respectively. In comparison, a dramatic decrement occurred in grazing land (107985 ha) within three decades. The population increased % 29 between years 1984-2014 in whole study area. Along with the natural causes, migration also caused this increase since the study area has an important employment potential. LULC was transformed among the classes due to the expansion in residential, commercial and industrial areas as well as political decisions. In the study, results showed that agricultural lands around the settlement areas transformed to residential areas in 30 years. The LST images showed that mean temperatures were ranged between 26-32 °C in 1984 and 27-33 °C in 2014. Minimum temperature of agricultural lands was increased 3 °C and reached to 23 °C. In contrast, maximum temperature of A class decreased to 41 °C from 44 °C. Considering temperatures of the 2014 R-B class and 1984 status of same areas, it was seen that mean, min and max temperatures increased by 2 °C. As a result, the dynamism of population, LULC and LST resulted in increasing mean and maximum surface temperatures, living spaces/industrial areas and agricultural lands.Keywords: census data, landsat, land surface temperature (LST), land use land cover (LULC)
Procedia PDF Downloads 3921963 The Causes and Effects of Delinquent Behaviour among Students in Juvenile Home: A Case Study of Osun State
Authors: Baleeqs, O. Adegoke, Adeola, O. Aburime
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Juvenile delinquency is fast becoming one of the largest problems facing many societies due to many different factors ranging from parental factors to bullying at schools all which had led to different theoretical notions by different scholars. Delinquency is an illegal or immoral behaviour, especially by the young person who behaves in a way that is illegal or that society does not approve of. The purpose of the study was to investigate causes and effects of delinquent behaviours among adolescent in juvenile home in Osun State. A descriptive survey research type was employed. The random sampling technique was used to select 100 adolescents in Juvenile home in Osun State. Questionnaires were developed and given to them. The data collected from this study were analyzed using frequency counts and percentage for the demographic data in section A, while the two research hypotheses postulated for this study were tested using t-test statistics at the significance level of 0.05. Findings revealed that the greatest school effects of delinquent behaviours among adolescent in juvenile home in Osun by respondents were their aggressive behaviours. Findings revealed that there was a significant difference in the causes and effects of delinquent behaviours among adolescent in juvenile home in Osun State. It was also revealed that there was no significant difference in the causes and effects of delinquent behaviours among secondary school students in Osun based on gender. These recommendations were made in order to address the findings of this study: More number of teachers should be appointed in the observation home so that it will be possible to provide teaching to the different age group of delinquents. Developing the infrastructure facilities of short stay homes and observation home is a top priority. Proper counseling session’s interval is highly essential for these juveniles.Keywords: behaviour, delinquency, juvenile, random sampling, statistical techniques, survey
Procedia PDF Downloads 1921962 A Quantitative Analysis of Rural to Urban Migration in Morocco
Authors: Donald Wright
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The ultimate goal of this study is to reinvigorate the philosophical underpinnings the study of urbanization with scientific data with the goal of circumventing what seems an inevitable future clash between rural and urban populations. To that end urban infrastructure must be sustainable economically, politically and ecologically over the course of several generations as cities continue to grow with the incorporation of climate refugees. Our research will provide data concerning the projected increase in population over the coming two decades in Morocco, and the population will shift from rural areas to urban centers during that period of time. As a result, urban infrastructure will need to be adapted, developed or built to fit the demand of future internal migrations from rural to urban centers in Morocco. This paper will also examine how past experiences of internally displaced people give insight into the challenges faced by future migrants and, beyond the gathering of data, how people react to internal migration. This study employs four different sets of research tools. First, a large part of this study is archival, which involves compiling the relevant literature on the topic and its complex history. This step also includes gathering data bout migrations in Morocco from public data sources. Once the datasets are collected, the next part of the project involves populating the attribute fields and preprocessing the data to make it understandable and usable by machine learning algorithms. In tandem with the mathematical interpretation of data and projected migrations, this study benefits from a theoretical understanding of the critical apparatus existing around urban development of the 20th and 21st centuries that give us insight into past infrastructure development and the rationale behind it. Once the data is ready to be analyzed, different machine learning algorithms will be experimented (k-clustering, support vector regression, random forest analysis) and the results compared for visualization of the data. The final computational part of this study involves analyzing the data and determining what we can learn from it. This paper helps us to understand future trends of population movements within and between regions of North Africa, which will have an impact on various sectors such as urban development, food distribution and water purification, not to mention the creation of public policy in the countries of this region. One of the strengths of this project is the multi-pronged and cross-disciplinary methodology to the research question, which enables an interchange of knowledge and experiences to facilitate innovative solutions to this complex problem. Multiple and diverse intersecting viewpoints allow an exchange of methodological models that provide fresh and informed interpretations of otherwise objective data.Keywords: climate change, machine learning, migration, Morocco, urban development
Procedia PDF Downloads 1561961 Bias-Corrected Estimation Methods for Receiver Operating Characteristic Surface
Authors: Khanh To Duc, Monica Chiogna, Gianfranco Adimari
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With three diagnostic categories, assessment of the performance of diagnostic tests is achieved by the analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface, which generalizes the ROC curve for binary diagnostic outcomes. The volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is a summary index usually employed for measuring the overall diagnostic accuracy. When the true disease status can be exactly assessed by means of a gold standard (GS) test, unbiased nonparametric estimators of the ROC surface and VUS are easily obtained. In practice, unfortunately, disease status verification via the GS test could be unavailable for all study subjects, due to the expensiveness or invasiveness of the GS test. Thus, often only a subset of patients undergoes disease verification. Statistical evaluations of diagnostic accuracy based only on data from subjects with verified disease status are typically biased. This bias is known as verification bias. Here, we consider the problem of correcting for verification bias when continuous diagnostic tests for three-class disease status are considered. We assume that selection for disease verification does not depend on disease status, given test results and other observed covariates, i.e., we assume that the true disease status, when missing, is missing at random. Under this assumption, we discuss several solutions for ROC surface analysis based on imputation and re-weighting methods. In particular, verification bias-corrected estimators of the ROC surface and of VUS are proposed, namely, full imputation, mean score imputation, inverse probability weighting and semiparametric efficient estimators. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established, and their finite sample behavior is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulation studies. Two illustrations using real datasets are also given.Keywords: imputation, missing at random, inverse probability weighting, ROC surface analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 4161960 Biomass For Energy In Improving Sustainable Economic Development
Authors: Dahiru Muhammad, Muhammad Danladi, Muhammad Yahaya, Adamu Garba
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This paper put forward the potentialities of biomass for energy as divers means of sustainable economic development. The paper explains, in brief, the ways or methods that are used to generate energy from biomass, such as combustion, pyrolysis, anaerobic, and gasification, and also how biomass for energy can enhance the sustainable economic development of a Nation. Currently, the nation depends on fossil fuels as a sources of generating its energy which is finite and deflectable with time, while on the other hand, biomass is an alternative and endless product which consists of forest biomass, agricultural residues, and energy crops. Finally, recommendations and conclusion were made on the role of biomass for energy in improving sustainable economic development.Keywords: biomass, energy, sustainability, economic
Procedia PDF Downloads 1341959 Human-Wildlife Conflicts in Urban Areas of Zimbabwe
Authors: Davie G. Dave, Prisca H. Mugabe, Tonderai Mutibvu
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Globally, HWCs are on the rise. Such is the case with urban areas in Zimbabwe, yet little has been documented about it. This study was done to provide insights into the occurrence of human-wildlife conflicts in urban areas. The study was carried out in Harare, Bindura, Masvingo, Beitbridge, and Chiredzi to determine the cause, nature, extent, and frequency of occurrence of HWC, to determine the key wildlife species involved in conflicts and management practices done to combat wildlife conflicts in these areas. Several sampling techniques encompassing multi-stage sampling, stratified random, purposive, and simple random sampling were employed for placing residential areas into three strata according to population density, selecting residential areas, and selecting actual participants. Data were collected through a semi-structured questionnaire and key informant interviews. The results revealed that property destruction and crop damage were the most prevalent conflicts. Of the 15 animals that were cited, snakes, baboons, and monkeys were associated with the most conflicts. The occurrence of HWCs was mainly attributed to the increase in both animal and human populations. To curtail these HWCs, the local people mainly used non-lethal methods, whilst lethal methods were used by authorities for some of the reported cases. The majority of the conflicts were seasonal and less severe. There were growing concerns by respondents on the issues of wildlife conflicts, especially in those areas that had primates, such as Warren Park in Harare and Limpopo View in Beitbridge. There are HWCs hotspots in urban areas, and to ameliorate this, suggestions are that there is a need for a multi-action approach that includes general awareness campaigns on HWCs and land use planning that involves the creation of green spaces to ease wildlife management.Keywords: human-wildlife conflicts, mitigation measures, residential areas, types of conflicts, urban areas
Procedia PDF Downloads 681958 Important Factors Affecting the Effectiveness of Quality Control Circles
Authors: Sogol Zarafshan
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The present study aimed to identify important factors affecting the effectiveness of quality control circles in a hospital, as well as rank them using a combination of fuzzy VIKOR and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). The study population consisted of five academic members and five experts in the field of nursing working in a hospital, who were selected using a purposive sampling method. Also, a sample of 107 nurses was selected through a simple random sampling method using their employee codes and the random-number table. The required data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire which consisted of 12 factors. The validity of this questionnaire was confirmed through giving the opinions of experts and academic members who participated in the present study, as well as performing confirmatory factor analysis. Its reliability also was verified (α=0.796). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS 22.0 and LISREL 8.8, as well as VIKOR–GRA and IPA methods. The results of ranking the factors affecting the effectiveness of quality control circles showed that the highest and lowest ranks were related to ‘Managers’ and supervisors’ support’ and ‘Group leadership’. Also, the highest hospital performance was for factors such as ‘Clear goals and objectives’ and ‘Group cohesiveness and homogeneity’, and the lowest for ‘Reward system’ and ‘Feedback system’, respectively. The results showed that although ‘Training the members’, ‘Using the right tools’ and ‘Reward system’ were factors that were of great importance, the organization’s performance for these factors was poor. Therefore, these factors should be paid more attention by the studied hospital managers and should be improved as soon as possible.Keywords: Quality control circles, Fuzzy VIKOR, Grey Relational Analysis, Importance–Performance Analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 1381957 The Value of Routine Terminal Ileal Biopsies for the Investigation of Diarrhea
Authors: Swati Bhasin, Ali Ahmed, Valence Xavier, Ben Liu
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Aims: Diarrhea is a problem that is a frequent clinic referral to the gastroenterology and surgical team from the General practitioner. To establish a diagnosis, these patients undergo colonoscopy. The current practice at our district general hospital is to perform random left and right colonic biopsies. National guidelines issued by the British Society of Gastroenterology advise all patients presenting with chronic diarrhea should have an Ileoscopy as an indicator for colonoscopy completion. Our primary aim was to check if Terminal ileum (TI) biopsy is required to establish a diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: Data was collected retrospectively from November 2018 to November 2019. The target population were patients who underwent colonoscopies for diarrhea. Demographic data, endoscopic and histology findings of TI were assessed and analyzed. Results: 140 patients with a mean age of 57 years (19-84) underwent a colonoscopy (M: F; 1:2.3). 92 patients had random colonic biopsies taken and based on the histological results of these, 15 patients (16%) were diagnosed with IBD. The TI was successfully intubated in 40 patients, of which 32 patients had colonic biopsies taken as well. 8 patients did not have a colonic biopsy taken. Macroscopic abnormality in the TI was detected in 5 patients, all of whom were biopsied. Based on histological results of the biopsy, 3 patients (12%) were diagnosed with IBD. These 3 patients (100%) also had colonic biopsies taken simultaneously and showed inflammation. None of the patients had a diagnosis of IBD confirmed on TI intubation alone (where colonic biopsies were not done). None of the patients has a diagnosis of IBD confirmed on TI intubation alone (where colonic biopsies were negative). Conclusion: TI intubation is a highly-skilled, time-consuming procedure with a higher risk of perforation, which as per our study, has little additional diagnostic value in finding IBD for symptoms of diarrhea if colonic biopsies are taken. We propose that diarrhea is a colonic symptom; therefore, colonic biopsies are positive for inflammation if the diarrhea is secondary to IBD. We conclude that all of the IBDs can be diagnosed simply with colonic biopsies.Keywords: biopsy, colon, IBD, terminal ileum
Procedia PDF Downloads 1221956 Assessing and Identifying Factors Affecting Customers Satisfaction of Commercial Bank of Ethiopia: The Case of West Shoa Zone (Bako, Gedo, Ambo, Ginchi and Holeta), Ethiopia
Authors: Habte Tadesse Likassa, Bacha Edosa
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Customer’s satisfaction was very important thing that is required for the existence of banks to be more productive and success in any organization and business area. The main goal of the study is assessing and identifying factors that influence customer’s satisfaction in West Shoa Zone of Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (Holeta, Ginchi, Ambo, Gedo and Bako). Stratified random sampling procedure was used in the study and by using simple random sampling (lottery method) 520 customers were drawn from the target population. By using Probability Proportional Size Techniques sample size for each branch of banks were allocated. Both descriptive and inferential statistics methods were used in the study. A binary logistic regression model was fitted to see the significance of factors affecting customer’s satisfaction in this study. SPSS statistical package was used for data analysis. The result of the study reveals that the overall level of customer’s satisfaction in the study area is low (38.85%) as compared those who were not satisfied (61.15%). The result of study showed that all most all factors included in the study were significantly associated with customer’s satisfaction. Therefore, it can be concluded that based on the comparison of branches on their customers satisfaction by using odd ratio customers who were using Ambo and Bako are less satisfied as compared to customers who were in Holeta branch. Additionally, customers who were in Ginchi and Gedo were more satisfied than that of customers who were in Holeta. Since the level of customers satisfaction was low in the study area, it is more advisable and recommended for concerned body works cooperatively more in maximizing satisfaction of their customers.Keywords: customers, satisfaction, binary logistic, complain handling process, waiting time
Procedia PDF Downloads 4661955 Mediation Role of Teachers’ Surface Acting and Deep Acting on the Relationship between Calling Orientation and Work Engagement
Authors: Yohannes Bisa Biramo
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This study examined the meditational role of surface acting and deep acting on the relationship between calling orientation and work engagement of teachers in secondary schools of Wolaita Zone, Wolaita, Ethiopia. A predictive non-experimental correlational design was performed among 300 secondary school teachers. Stratified random sampling followed by a systematic random sampling technique was used as the basis for selecting samples from the target population. To analyze the data, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to test the association between the independent variables and the dependent variables. Furthermore, the goodness of fit of the study variables was tested using SEM to see and explain the path influence of the independent variable on the dependent variable. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to test the validity of the scales in the study and to assess the measurement model fit indices. The analysis result revealed that calling was significantly and positively correlated with surface acting, deep acting and work engagement. Similarly, surface acting was significantly and positively correlated with deep acting and work engagement. And also, deep acting was significantly and positively correlated with work engagement. With respect to mediation analysis, the result revealed that surface acting mediated the relationship between calling and work engagement and also deep acting mediated the relationship between calling and work engagement. Besides, by using the model of the present study, the school leaders and practitioners can identify a core area to be considered in recruiting and letting teachers teach, in giving induction training for newly employed teachers and in performance appraisal.Keywords: calling, surface acting, deep acting, work engagement, mediation, teachers
Procedia PDF Downloads 851954 Biomass Energy in Improving Sustainable Economic Development
Authors: Dahiru Muhammad, Muhammad Danladi, Adamu Garba, Muhammad Yahaya
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This paper put forward the potentialities of biomass for energy as divers means of sustainable economic development. The paper explains in brief the ways or methods that are used to generate energy from biomass, such as combustion, pyrolysis, anaerobic, and gasification, and also how biomass for energy can enhance the sustainable economic development of a Nation. Currently, the nation depends on fossil fuels as a sources of generating its energy which is finite and deflectable with time, while on the other hand, biomass is an alternative and endless product which consists of a forest biomass, agricultural residues, and energy crops. Finally, recommendations and conclusion were made on the role of biomass for energy in improving sustainable economic development.Keywords: biomass, energy, sustainable, economic, development
Procedia PDF Downloads 1291953 The microbial evaluation of cow raw milk used in private dairy factories in of Zawia city, Libya
Authors: Obied A. Alwan, Elgerbi, M. Ali
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This study was conducted on the cow milk which is used in the local milk factories of Zawia. This was completely random sampling the unscheduled samples. The microbiologic result have approved that the count of bacteria and the count of E.Coli are very high and all the manufacturing places which were included in the study have lacked the health conditions.Keywords: raw milk, dairy factories, Libya, microbiologic
Procedia PDF Downloads 4411952 Assessment of Hydrologic Response of a Naturalized Tropical Coastal Mangrove Ecosystem Due to Land Cover Change in an Urban Watershed
Authors: Bryan Clark B. Hernandez, Eugene C. Herrera, Kazuo Nadaoka
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Mangrove forests thriving in intertidal zones in tropical and subtropical regions of the world offer a range of ecosystem services including carbon storage and sequestration. They can regulate the detrimental effects of climate change due to carbon releases two to four times greater than that of mature tropical rainforests. Moreover, they are effective natural defenses against storm surges and tsunamis. However, their proliferation depends significantly on the prevailing hydroperiod at the coast. In the Philippines, these coastal ecosystems have been severely threatened with a 50% decline in areal extent observed from 1918 to 2010. The highest decline occurred in 1950 - 1972 when national policies encouraged the development of fisheries and aquaculture. With the intensive land use conversion upstream, changes in the freshwater-saltwater envelope at the coast may considerably impact mangrove growth conditions. This study investigates a developing urban watershed in Kalibo, Aklan province with a 220-hectare mangrove forest replanted for over 30 years from coastal mudflats. Since then, the mangrove forest was sustainably conserved and declared as protected areas. Hybrid land cover classification technique was used to classify Landsat images for years, 1990, 2010, and 2017. Digital elevation model utilized was Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) with a 5-meter resolution to delineate the watersheds. Using numerical modelling techniques, the hydrologic and hydraulic analysis of the influence of land cover change to flow and sediment dynamics was simulated. While significant land cover change occurred upland, thereby increasing runoff and sediment loads, the mangrove forests abundance adjacent to the coasts for the urban watershed, was somehow sustained. However, significant alteration of the coastline was observed in Kalibo through the years, probably due to the massive land-use conversion upstream and significant replanting of mangroves downstream. Understanding the hydrologic-hydraulic response of these watersheds to change land cover is essential to helping local government and stakeholders facilitate better management of these mangrove ecosystems.Keywords: coastal mangroves, hydrologic model, land cover change, Philippines
Procedia PDF Downloads 1231951 Economic Decision Making under Cognitive Load: The Role of Numeracy and Financial Literacy
Authors: Vânia Costa, Nuno De Sá Teixeira, Ana C. Santos, Eduardo Santos
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Financial literacy and numeracy have been regarded as paramount for rational household decision making in the increasing complexity of financial markets. However, financial decisions are often made under sub-optimal circumstances, including cognitive overload. The present study aims to clarify how financial literacy and numeracy, taken as relevant expert knowledge for financial decision-making, modulate possible effects of cognitive load. Participants were required to perform a choice between a sure loss or a gambling pertaining a financial investment, either with or without a competing memory task. Two experiments were conducted varying only the content of the competing task. In the first, the financial choice task was made while maintaining on working memory a list of five random letters. In the second, cognitive load was based upon the retention of six random digits. In both experiments, one of the items in the list had to be recalled given its serial position. Outcomes of the first experiment revealed no significant main effect or interactions involving cognitive load manipulation and numeracy and financial literacy skills, strongly suggesting that retaining a list of random letters did not interfere with the cognitive abilities required for financial decision making. Conversely, and in the second experiment, a significant interaction between the competing mnesic task and level of financial literacy (but not numeracy) was found for the frequency of choice of a gambling option. Overall, and in the control condition, both participants with high financial literacy and high numeracy were more prone to choose the gambling option. However, and when under cognitive load, participants with high financial literacy were as likely as their illiterate counterparts to choose the gambling option. This outcome is interpreted as evidence that financial literacy prevents intuitive risk-aversion reasoning only under highly favourable conditions, as is the case when no other task is competing for cognitive resources. In contrast, participants with higher levels of numeracy were consistently more prone to choose the gambling option in both experimental conditions. These results are discussed in the light of the opposition between classical dual-process theories and fuzzy-trace theories for intuitive decision making, suggesting that while some instances of expertise (as numeracy) are prone to support easily accessible gist representations, other expert skills (as financial literacy) depend upon deliberative processes. It is furthermore suggested that this dissociation between types of expert knowledge might depend on the degree to which they are generalizable across disparate settings. Finally, applied implications of the present study are discussed with a focus on how it informs financial regulators and the importance and limits of promoting financial literacy and general numeracy.Keywords: decision making, cognitive load, financial literacy, numeracy
Procedia PDF Downloads 1851950 Evaluation of the Effect of Learning Disabilities and Accommodations on the Prediction of the Exam Performance: Ordinal Decision-Tree Algorithm
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Providing students with learning disabilities (LD) with extra time to grant them equal access to the exam is a necessary but insufficient condition to compensate for their LD; there should also be a clear indication that the additional time was actually used. For example, if students with LD use more time than students without LD and yet receive lower grades, this may indicate that a different accommodation is required. If they achieve higher grades but use the same amount of time, then the effectiveness of the accommodation has not been demonstrated. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the effect of including parameters related to LD and extended exam time, along with other commonly-used characteristics (e.g., student background and ability measures such as high-school grades), on the ability of ordinal decision-tree algorithms to predict exam performance. We use naturally-occurring data collected from hundreds of undergraduate engineering students. The sub-goals are i) to examine the improvement in prediction accuracy when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' in addition to the conventional indicator (exam grade) employed in most research; ii) to explore the effectiveness of extended exam time on exam performance for different courses and for LD students with different profiles (i.e., sets of characteristics). This is achieved by using the patterns (i.e., subgroups) generated by the algorithms to identify pairs of subgroups that differ in just one characteristic (e.g., course or type of LD) but have different outcomes in terms of exam performance (grade and time used). Since grade and time used to exhibit an ordering form, we propose a method based on ordinal decision-trees, which applies a weighted information-gain ratio (WIGR) measure for selecting the classifying attributes. Unlike other known ordinal algorithms, our method does not assume monotonicity in the data. The proposed WIGR is an extension of an information-theoretic measure, in the sense that it adjusts to the case of an ordinal target and takes into account the error severity between two different target classes. Specifically, we use ordinal C4.5, random-forest, and AdaBoost algorithms, as well as an ensemble technique composed of ordinal and non-ordinal classifiers. Firstly, we find that the inclusion of LD and extended exam-time parameters improves prediction of exam performance (compared to specifications of the algorithms that do not include these variables). Secondly, when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' together with grade (as opposed to grade only), the prediction accuracy improves. Thirdly, our subgroup analyses show clear differences in the effect of extended exam time on exam performance among different courses and different student profiles. From a methodological perspective, we find that the ordinal decision-tree based algorithms outperform their conventional, non-ordinal counterparts. Further, we demonstrate that the ensemble-based approach leverages the strengths of each type of classifier (ordinal and non-ordinal) and yields better performance than each classifier individually.Keywords: actual exam time usage, ensemble learning, learning disabilities, ordinal classification, time extension
Procedia PDF Downloads 1011949 Application of Rapidly Exploring Random Tree Star-Smart and G2 Quintic Pythagorean Hodograph Curves to the UAV Path Planning Problem
Authors: Luiz G. Véras, Felipe L. Medeiros, Lamartine F. Guimarães
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This work approaches the automatic planning of paths for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) through the application of the Rapidly Exploring Random Tree Star-Smart (RRT*-Smart) algorithm. RRT*-Smart is a sampling process of positions of a navigation environment through a tree-type graph. The algorithm consists of randomly expanding a tree from an initial position (root node) until one of its branches reaches the final position of the path to be planned. The algorithm ensures the planning of the shortest path, considering the number of iterations tending to infinity. When a new node is inserted into the tree, each neighbor node of the new node is connected to it, if and only if the extension of the path between the root node and that neighbor node, with this new connection, is less than the current extension of the path between those two nodes. RRT*-smart uses an intelligent sampling strategy to plan less extensive routes by spending a smaller number of iterations. This strategy is based on the creation of samples/nodes near to the convex vertices of the navigation environment obstacles. The planned paths are smoothed through the application of the method called quintic pythagorean hodograph curves. The smoothing process converts a route into a dynamically-viable one based on the kinematic constraints of the vehicle. This smoothing method models the hodograph components of a curve with polynomials that obey the Pythagorean Theorem. Its advantage is that the obtained structure allows computation of the curve length in an exact way, without the need for quadratural techniques for the resolution of integrals.Keywords: path planning, path smoothing, Pythagorean hodograph curve, RRT*-Smart
Procedia PDF Downloads 1691948 The Effect of Group Counseling on the Victimhood Perceptions of Adolescent Who Are the Subject of Peer Victimization and on Their Coping Strategies
Authors: İsmail Seçer, Taştan Seçer
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In this study, the effect of the group counseling on the victimhood perceptions of the primary school 7th and 8th grade students who are determined to be the subject of peer victimization and their dealing way with it was analyzed. The research model is Solomon Four Group Experimental Model. In this model, there are four groups that were determined with random sampling. Two of the groups have been used as experimental group and the other two have been used as control group. Solomon model is defined as real experimental model. In real experimental models, there are multiple groups consisting of subject which have similar characteristics, and selection of the subjects is done with random sampling. For this purpose, 230 students from Kültür Kurumu Primary School in Erzurum were asked to fill Adolescent Peer Victim Form. 100 students whose victim scores were higher and who were determined to be the subject of bullying were talked face to face and informed about the current study, and they were asked if they were willing to participate or not. As a result of these interviews, 60 students were determined to participate in the experimental study and four group consisting of 15 people were created with simple random sampling method. After the groups had been formed, experimental and control group were determined with casting lots. After determining experimental and control groups, an 11-session group counseling activity which was prepared by the researcher according to the literature was applied. The purpose of applying group counseling is to change the ineffective dealing ways with bullying and their victimhood perceptions. Each session was planned to be 75 minutes and applied as planned. In the control groups, counseling activities in the primary school counseling curricula was applied for 11 weeks. As a result of the study, physical, emotional and verbal victimhood perceptions of the participants in the experimental groups were decreased significantly compared to pre-experimental situations and to those in control group. Besides, it was determined that this change observed in the victimhood perceptions of the experimental group occurred independently from the effect of variables such as gender, age and academic success. The first evidence of the study related to the dealing ways is that the scores of the participants in the experimental group related to the ineffective dealing ways such as despair and avoidance is decreased significantly compared to the pre-experimental situation and to those in control group. The second evidence related to the dealing ways is that the scores of the participants in the experimental group related to effective dealing ways such as seeking for help, consulting social support, resistance and optimism is increased significantly compared to the pre-experimental situation and to those in control group. According to the evidence obtained through the study, it can be said that group counseling is an effective approach to change the victimhood perceptions of the individuals who are the subject of bullying and their dealing strategies with it.Keywords: bullying, perception of victimization, coping strategies, ancova analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3931947 Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction of the Wet Zone of Sri Lanka: A Zooarchaeological Perspective
Authors: Kalangi Rodrigo
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Sri Lanka has been known as an island which has a diverse variety of prehistoric occupation among ecological zones. Defining the paleoecology of the past societies has been an archaeological thought developed in the 1960s. It is mainly concerned with the reconstruction from available geological and biological evidence of past biota, populations, communities, landscapes, environments, and ecosystems. Sri Lanka has dealt with this subject, and considerable research has been already undertaken. The fossil and material record of Sri Lanka’s Wet Zone tropical forests continues from c. 38,000–34,000 ybp. This early and persistent human fossil, technical, and cultural florescence, as well as a collection of well-preserved tropical-forest rock shelters with associated 'on-site' palaeoenvironmental records, makes Sri Lanka a central and unusual case study to determine the extent and strength of early human tropical forest encounters. Excavations carried out in prehistoric caves in the low country wet zone has shown that in the last 50,000 years, the temperature in the lowland rainforests has not exceeded 5°C. When taking Batadombalena alone, the entire seven layers have yielded an uninterrupted occupation of Acavus sp and Canerium zeylanicum, a plant that grows in the middle of the rainforest. Acavus, which is highly sensitive to rainforest ecosystems, has been well documented in many of the lowland caves, confirming that the wetland rainforest environment has remained intact at least for the last 50,000 years. If the dry and arid conditions in the upper hills regions affected the wet zone, the Tufted Gray Lunger (semnopithecus priam), must also meet with the prehistoric caves in the wet zone thrown over dry climate. However, the bones in the low country wet zone do not find any of the fragments belonging to Turfed Gray Lunger, and prehistoric human consumption is bestowed with purple-faced leaf monkey (Trachypithecus vetulus) and Toque Macaque (Macaca Sinica). The skeletal remains of Lyriocephalus scutatus, a full-time resident in rain forests, have also been recorded among lowland caves. But, in zoological terms, these remains may be the remains of the Barking deer (Muntiacus muntjak), which is currently found in the wet zone. For further investigations, the mtDNA test of genetic diversity (Bottleneck effect) and pollen study from lowland caves should determine whether the wet zone climate has persisted over the last 50,000 years, or whether the dry weather affected in the mountainous region has invaded the wet zone.Keywords: paleoecology, prehistory, zooarchaeology, reconstruction, palaeo-climate
Procedia PDF Downloads 1411946 Integrated Watershed Management Practice in Chelchai Hyrcanian Forests in the North of Iran
Authors: Mashad Maramaei, Behrooz Chogan, Reza Ahmadi
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Human health and the health of his watershed are inseparable. This is because a watershed is an interconnected system of "land", "water", "air" and "life". Nowadays, most of the world's watersheds show symptoms of unhealthiness and require a prompt solution. It is believed that suitable solution is a participatory and Integrated Watershed Management (IWM). In recent decades the Hyrcanian forests in the north of Iran, which belongs to the end of the third geological era, are suffering from many environmental challenges such as land degradation, increasing trends of flood, drought and accelerated soil erosion. These challenges in the main forested area of the country impose many tangible and intangible damages and human losses. This is despite the fact that in the past decades, forestry programs, watershed management and other activities in the region have been implemented in a parallel and uncoordinated manner. Therefore, recently; the Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organization has resorted to the concept of IWM planning the Hyrcanian watersheds. The Chelchai watershed as mostly degraded watershed in the eastern part of the Hyrcanian forests has been selected as a pilot watershed for implementation of the IWM. It has a drainage area of 25680 hectares and receives an average annual precipitation of 650 mm. In this mountainous region, the average temperature is 17.3 degrees Celsius. About 34% of the watershed is under cultivation, 64% under forest cover, 2% under built up areas and etc. In this research, the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the IWM model implementation of the Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organization has been evaluated based on questionnaire method and field studies. The results indicated that IWM activities in the study area should be reconsidered and revived. Based on this research and the lessons learned during five years' experience in the Chelchai watershed; authors believe that seven important tasks are necessary for socially acceptable and successful implementation of IWM projects. These are: 1) Establishment of Local Coordination Committee (LCC) at the watershed level 2) working for development of a IWM law among government organizations to organize watershed management and eliminate parallel and contradictory activities 3) More investment on education of local communities, especially women and children 4) Development of trust builder and pattern projects that showing best agricultural and livestock management activities at each of 26 villages 5) Assigning forest protection to local communities. 6) Capacity building of government stakeholders. 7) Helping in the marketing of watershed products.Keywords: integrated watershed management, Chelchai, Hyrcanian forests, Iran
Procedia PDF Downloads 231945 Soils Properties of Alfisols in the Nicoya Peninsula, Guanacaste, Costa Rica
Authors: Elena Listo, Miguel Marchamalo
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This research studies the soil properties located in the watershed of Jabillo River in the Guanacaste province, Costa Rica. The soils are classified as Alfisols (T. Haplustalfs), in the flatter parts with grazing as Fluventic Haplustalfs or as a consequence of bad drainage as F. Epiaqualfs. The objective of this project is to define the status of the soil, to use remote sensing as a tool for analyzing the evolution of land use and determining the water balance of the watershed in order to improve the efficiency of the water collecting systems. Soil samples were analyzed from trial pits taken from secondary forests, degraded pastures, mature teak plantation, and regrowth -Tectona grandis L. F.- species developed favorably in the area. Furthermore, to complete the study, infiltration measurements were taken with an artificial rainfall simulator, as well as studies of soil compaction with a penetrometer, in points strategically selected from the different land uses. Regarding remote sensing, nearly 40 data samples were collected per plot of land. The source of radiation is reflected sunlight from the beam and the underside of leaves, bare soil, streams, roads and logs, and soil samples. Infiltration reached high levels. The majority of data came from the secondary forest and mature planting due to a high proportion of organic matter, relatively low bulk density, and high hydraulic conductivity. Teak regrowth had a low rate of infiltration because the studies made regarding the soil compaction showed a partial compaction over 50 cm. The secondary forest presented a compaction layer from 15 cm to 30 cm deep, and the degraded pasture, as a result of grazing, in the first 15 cm. In this area, the alfisols soils have high content of iron oxides, a fact that causes a higher reflectivity close to the infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum (around 700mm), as a result of clay texture. Specifically in the teak plantation where the reflectivity reaches values of 90 %, this is due to the high content of clay in relation to others. In conclusion, the protective function of secondary forests is reaffirmed with regards to erosion and high rate of infiltration. In humid climates and permeable soils, the decrease of runoff is less, however, the percolation increases. The remote sensing indicates that being clay soils, they retain moisture in a better way and it means a low reflectivity despite being fine texture.Keywords: alfisols, Costa Rica, infiltration, remote sensing
Procedia PDF Downloads 6961944 Case study of Environmental Impact Assessment of Quarrying Activities
Authors: Hocine Benabid, M. F. Ghorab
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The exploration of open pit mines and quarries has always been important resources that provide many valuable needed minerals but very often accompanied by large amounts of dust rejected into the air and also many other negative environmental impacts. The dust remains suspended in the atmosphere before being deposited on soils, on forest trees, on plants and also on water, causing at long term allergic and respiratory diseases for residents living in the vicinity or even far away from the mines and quarries. As a consequence of this activity, dust can also disturb the photosynthetic activity of plants and affect water quality. It is for these reasons and because of the intensification of these activities that our motivations have become larger to deal with this kind of topic, which is becoming nowadays an environmental and health concern for almost every country in the world.Keywords: mines, dust, environmental impacts, environmental concern
Procedia PDF Downloads 3831943 Alcohol-Containing versus Aqueous-Based Solutions for Skin Preparation in Abdominal Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Authors: Dimitra V. Peristeri, Hussameldin M. Nour, Amiya Ahsan, Sameh Abogabal, Krishna K. Singh, Muhammad Shafique Sajid
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Introduction: The use of optimal skin antiseptic agents for the prevention of surgical site infection (SSI) is of critical importance, especially during abdominal surgical procedures. Alcohol-based chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) and aqueous-based povidone-iodine (PVI) are the two most common skin antiseptics used nowadays. The objective of this article is to evaluate the effectiveness of alcohol-based CHG versus aqueous-based PVI used for skin preparation before abdominal surgery to reduce SSIs. Methods: Standard medical databases such as MEDLINE, Embase, Pubmed, and Cochrane Library were searched to find randomised, controlled trials (RCTs) comparing alcohol-based CHG skin preparation versus aqueous-based PVI in patients undergoing abdominal surgery. The combined outcomes of SSIs were calculated using an odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). All data were analysed using Review Manager (RevMan) Software 5.4, and the meta-analysis was performed with a random effect model analysis. Results: A total of 11 studies, all RCTs, were included (n= 12072 participants), recruiting adult patients undergoing abdominal surgery. In the random effect model analysis, the use of alcohol-based CHG in patients undergoing abdominal surgery was associated with a reduced risk of SSI compared to aqueous-based PVI (OR: 0.84; 95% CI [0.74, 0.96], z= 2.61, p= 0.009). Conclusion: Alcohol-based CHG may be more effective for preventing the risk of SSI compared to aqueous-based PVI agents in abdominal surgery. The conclusion of this meta-analysis may add a guiding value to reinforce current clinical practice guidelines.Keywords: skin preparation, surgical site infection, chlorhexidine, skin antiseptics
Procedia PDF Downloads 1121942 Design of a Small and Medium Enterprise Growth Prediction Model Based on Web Mining
Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj
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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining
Procedia PDF Downloads 2691941 Derivation of a Risk-Based Level of Service Index for Surface Street Network Using Reliability Analysis
Authors: Chang-Jen Lan
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Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as XKeywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index
Procedia PDF Downloads 1311940 3D Classification Optimization of Low-Density Airborne Light Detection and Ranging Point Cloud by Parameters Selection
Authors: Baha Eddine Aissou, Aichouche Belhadj Aissa
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Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) is an active remote sensing technology used for several applications. Airborne LiDAR is becoming an important technology for the acquisition of a highly accurate dense point cloud. A classification of airborne laser scanning (ALS) point cloud is a very important task that still remains a real challenge for many scientists. Support vector machine (SVM) is one of the most used statistical learning algorithms based on kernels. SVM is a non-parametric method, and it is recommended to be used in cases where the data distribution cannot be well modeled by a standard parametric probability density function. Using a kernel, it performs a robust non-linear classification of samples. Often, the data are rarely linearly separable. SVMs are able to map the data into a higher-dimensional space to become linearly separable, which allows performing all the computations in the original space. This is one of the main reasons that SVMs are well suited for high-dimensional classification problems. Only a few training samples, called support vectors, are required. SVM has also shown its potential to cope with uncertainty in data caused by noise and fluctuation, and it is computationally efficient as compared to several other methods. Such properties are particularly suited for remote sensing classification problems and explain their recent adoption. In this poster, the SVM classification of ALS LiDAR data is proposed. Firstly, connected component analysis is applied for clustering the point cloud. Secondly, the resulting clusters are incorporated in the SVM classifier. Radial basic function (RFB) kernel is used due to the few numbers of parameters (C and γ) that needs to be chosen, which decreases the computation time. In order to optimize the classification rates, the parameters selection is explored. It consists to find the parameters (C and γ) leading to the best overall accuracy using grid search and 5-fold cross-validation. The exploited LiDAR point cloud is provided by the German Society for Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing, and Geoinformation. The ALS data used is characterized by a low density (4-6 points/m²) and is covering an urban area located in residential parts of the city Vaihingen in southern Germany. The class ground and three other classes belonging to roof superstructures are considered, i.e., a total of 4 classes. The training and test sets are selected randomly several times. The obtained results demonstrated that a parameters selection can orient the selection in a restricted interval of (C and γ) that can be further explored but does not systematically lead to the optimal rates. The SVM classifier with hyper-parameters is compared with the most used classifiers in literature for LiDAR data, random forest, AdaBoost, and decision tree. The comparison showed the superiority of the SVM classifier using parameters selection for LiDAR data compared to other classifiers.Keywords: classification, airborne LiDAR, parameters selection, support vector machine
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