Search results for: suicide risk
5133 Sexual Health and Sexual Risk Behavior of the Youth with HIV Positive in Northeastern Part, Thailand
Authors: Orathai Srithongtham, Ubonsri Thabuddha
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The youth with HIV positive is not difference from the general youth in term of sexual needs. Sexual health is crucial the most to support the youth with HIV positive to be sexual well-being. This study aims to elucidate the sexual health on protection from STDs (Sexual Transmitted Diseases) and HIV transmission and to explain sexual risk behavior of the youth with HIV positive. The target group was the youth with HIV positive about 23 cases from two provinces in northeastern part of Thailand. Qualitative method was applied for collecting data by in-depth interview. Content analysis was use for data analysis. The youth with HIV positive was protection from STDs and HIV transmission by using the condom during sexual activity. The reason to deny the condom use were ashamed, condom is not a part of life, no have fit size, and the youth fear to stigmatized as a mental disorder and fear to stigmatized as going to fuck someone. The youth who trust with nurse in clinic was dare to request the condom by face. Sexual activity without condom use is sexual risk behavior. The major causes were couple trust and the sexual enjoyment first and sexual active competition with friend without condom use. The concern on HIV was the boyfriend or girlfriend not accepts the HIV positive people, worry about the HIV transmutation, and finally not compliance to ARV drug. The youth with HIV positive was lacking of the knowledge on sexual health on the issues of access to condom and the concern to keep on relationship with the boyfriend or girlfriend. This concern issues was led to the non-adherence of ARV drug and HIV distribution. To provide the sexual health service is more essential to the youth with HIV positive.Keywords: sexual health, sexual risk behavior, youth, HIV
Procedia PDF Downloads 4635132 PM₁₀ and PM2.5 Concentrations in Bangkok over Last 10 Years: Implications for Air Quality and Health
Authors: Tin Thongthammachart, Wanida Jinsart
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Atmospheric particulate matter particles with a diameter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 microns (PM₂.₅) have adverse health effect. The impact from PM was studied from both health and regulatory perspective. Ambient PM data was collected over ten years in Bangkok and vicinity areas of Thailand from 2007 to 2017. Statistical models were used to forecast PM concentrations from 2018 to 2020. Monitoring monthly data averaged concentration of PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ were used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM. The forecasting results were validated by root means square error (RMSE). The predicted results were used to determine hazard risk for the carcinogenic disease. The health risk values were interpolated with GIS with ordinary kriging technique to create hazard maps in Bangkok and vicinity area. GIS-based maps illustrated the variability of PM distribution and high-risk locations. These evaluated results could support national policy for the sake of human health.Keywords: PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, statistical models, atmospheric particulate matter
Procedia PDF Downloads 1545131 Comparing Performance of Neural Network and Decision Tree in Prediction of Myocardial Infarction
Authors: Reza Safdari, Goli Arji, Robab Abdolkhani Maryam zahmatkeshan
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Background and purpose: Cardiovascular diseases are among the most common diseases in all societies. The most important step in minimizing myocardial infarction and its complications is to minimize its risk factors. The amount of medical data is increasingly growing. Medical data mining has a great potential for transforming these data into information. Using data mining techniques to generate predictive models for identifying those at risk for reducing the effects of the disease is very helpful. The present study aimed to collect data related to risk factors of heart infarction from patients’ medical record and developed predicting models using data mining algorithm. Methods: The present work was an analytical study conducted on a database containing 350 records. Data were related to patients admitted to Shahid Rajaei specialized cardiovascular hospital, Iran, in 2011. Data were collected using a four-sectioned data collection form. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and Clementine version 12. Seven predictive algorithms and one algorithm-based model for predicting association rules were applied to the data. Accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive values were determined and the final model was obtained. Results: five parameters, including hypertension, DLP, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and A+ blood group, were the most critical risk factors of myocardial infarction. Among the models, the neural network model was found to have the highest sensitivity, indicating its ability to successfully diagnose the disease. Conclusion: Risk prediction models have great potentials in facilitating the management of a patient with a specific disease. Therefore, health interventions or change in their life style can be conducted based on these models for improving the health conditions of the individuals at risk.Keywords: decision trees, neural network, myocardial infarction, Data Mining
Procedia PDF Downloads 4195130 RASPE: Risk Advisory Smart System for Pipeline Projects in Egypt
Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim
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A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. This paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.Keywords: expert system, knowledge management, pipeline projects, risk mismanagement
Procedia PDF Downloads 3015129 ScRNA-Seq RNA Sequencing-Based Program-Polygenic Risk Scores Associated with Pancreatic Cancer Risks in the UK Biobank Cohort
Authors: Yelin Zhao, Xinxiu Li, Martin Smelik, Oleg Sysoev, Firoj Mahmud, Dina Mansour Aly, Mikael Benson
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Background: Early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is clinically challenging due to vague, or no symptoms, and lack of biomarkers. Polygenic risk score (PRS) scores may provide a valuable tool to assess increased or decreased risk of PC. This study aimed to develop such PRS by filtering genetic variants identified by GWAS using transcriptional programs identified by single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq). Methods: ScRNA-seq data from 24 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) tumor samples and 11 normal pancreases were analyzed to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in in tumor and microenvironment cell types compared to healthy tissues. Pathway analysis showed that the DEGs were enriched for hundreds of significant pathways. These were clustered into 40 “programs” based on gene similarity, using the Jaccard index. Published genetic variants associated with PDAC were mapped to each program to generate program PRSs (pPRSs). These pPRSs, along with five previously published PRSs (PGS000083, PGS000725, PGS000663, PGS000159, and PGS002264), were evaluated in a European-origin population from the UK Biobank, consisting of 1,310 PDAC participants and 407,473 non-pancreatic cancer participants. Stepwise Cox regression analysis was performed to determine associations between pPRSs with the development of PC, with adjustments of sex and principal components of genetic ancestry. Results: The PDAC genetic variants were mapped to 23 programs and were used to generate pPRSs for these programs. Four distinct pPRSs (P1, P6, P11, and P16) and two published PRSs (PGS000663 and PGS002264) were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing PC. Among these, P6 exhibited the greatest hazard ratio (adjusted HR[95% CI] = 1.67[1.14-2.45], p = 0.008). In contrast, P10 and P4 were associated with lower risk of developing PC (adjusted HR[95% CI] = 0.58[0.42-0.81], p = 0.001, and adjusted HR[95% CI] = 0.75[0.59-0.96], p = 0.019). By comparison, two of the five published PRS exhibited an association with PDAC onset with HR (PGS000663: adjusted HR[95% CI] = 1.24[1.14-1.35], p < 0.001 and PGS002264: adjusted HR[95% CI] = 1.14[1.07-1.22], p < 0.001). Conclusion: Compared to published PRSs, scRNA-seq-based pPRSs may be used not only to assess increased but also decreased risk of PDAC.Keywords: cox regression, pancreatic cancer, polygenic risk score, scRNA-seq, UK biobank
Procedia PDF Downloads 895128 Short-Term Energy Efficiency Decay and Risk Analysis of Ground Source Heat Pump System
Authors: Tu Shuyang, Zhang Xu, Zhou Xiang
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The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of short-term heat exchange decay of ground heat exchanger (GHE) on the ground source heat pump (GSHP) energy efficiency and capacity. A resistance-capacitance (RC) model was developed and adopted to simulate the transient characteristics of the ground thermal condition and heat exchange. The capacity change of the GSHP was linked to the inlet and outlet water temperature by polynomial fitting according to measured parameters given by heat pump manufacturers. Thus, the model, which combined the heat exchange decay with the capacity change, reflected the energy efficiency decay of the whole system. A case of GSHP system was analyzed by the model, and the result showed that there was risk that the GSHP might not meet the load demand because of the efficiency decay in a short-term operation. The conclusion would provide some guidances for GSHP system design to overcome the risk.Keywords: capacity, energy efficiency, GSHP, heat exchange
Procedia PDF Downloads 3385127 Spatio-Temporal Pest Risk Analysis with ‘BioClass’
Authors: Vladimir A. Todiras
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Spatio-temporal models provide new possibilities for real-time action in pest risk analysis. It should be noted that estimation of the possibility and probability of introduction of a pest and of its economic consequences involves many uncertainties. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk using online BioClass software. BioClass is a GIS tool designed to solve multiple-criteria classification and optimization problems based on fuzzy logic and level set methods. This research describes a method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study: corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.), tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) and plum fruit moth (Grapholita funebrana). Our study demonstrated that in BioClass we can combine fuzzy logic and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information for decision making. Pests are sensitive to a warming climate, as temperature greatly affects their survival and reproductive rate and capacity. Changes have been observed in the distribution, frequency and severity of outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera on tomato. BioClass has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and map the potential future distribution of a species, enable resource to make decisions about dangerous and invasive species management and control.Keywords: classification, model, pest, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 2755126 Dietary Risk Assessment of Green Leafy Vegetables (GLV) Due to Heavy Metals from Selected Mining Areas
Authors: Simon Mensah Ofosu
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Illicit surface mining activities pollutes agricultural lands and water bodies and results in accumulation of heavy metals in vegetables cultivated in such areas. Heavy metal (HM) accumulation in vegetables is a serious food safety issues due to the adverse effects of metal toxicities, hence the need to investigate the levels of these metals in cultivated vegetables in the eastern region. Cocoyam leaves, cabbage and cucumber were sampled from selected farms in mining areas (Atiwa District) and non -mining areas (Yilo Krobo and East Akim District) of the region for the study. Levels of Cadmium, Lead, Mercury and Arsenic were investigated in the vegetables with Atomic Absorption Spectrometer, and the results statistically analyzed with Microsoft Office Excel (2013) Spread Sheet and ANOVA. Cadmium (Cd) and arsenic (As) were the highest and least concentrated HM in the vegetables sampled, respectively. The mean concentrations of Cd and Pb in cabbage (0.564 mg/kg, 0.470 mg/kg), cucumber (0.389 mg/kg, 0.190 mg/kg), cocoyam leaves (0.410 mg/kg, 0.256 mg/kg) respectively from the mining areas exceeded the permissible limits set by Joint FAO/WHO. The mean concentrations of the metals in vegetables from the mining and non-mining areas varied significantly (P<0.05). The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) was used to assess the health risk posed to the human population via vegetable consumption. The THQ values of cadmium, mercury, and lead in adults and children through vegetable consumption in the mining areas were greater than 1 (THQ >1). This indicates the potential health risk that the children and adults may be facing. The THQ values of adults and children in the non-mining areas were less than the safe limit of 1 (THQ<1), hence no significant health risk posed to the population from such areas.Keywords: food safety, risk assessment, illicit mining, public health, contaminated vegetables
Procedia PDF Downloads 815125 Risk Analysis of Flood Physical Vulnerability in Residential Areas of Mathare Nairobi, Kenya
Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi
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Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability
Procedia PDF Downloads 2295124 The Impact of Financial Risk on Banks’ Financial Performance: A Comparative Study of Islamic Banks and Conventional Banks in Pakistan
Authors: Mohammad Yousaf Safi Mohibullah Afghan
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The study made on Islamic and conventional banks scrutinizes the risks interconnected with credit and liquidity on the productivity performance of Islamic and conventional banks that operate in Pakistan. Among the banks, only 4 Islamic and 18 conventional banks have been selected to enrich the result of our study on Islamic banks performance in connection to conventional banks. The selection of the banks to the panel is based on collecting quarterly unbalanced data ranges from the first quarter of 2007 to the last quarter of 2017. The data are collected from the Bank’s web sites and State Bank of Pakistan. The data collection is carried out based on Delta-method test. The mentioned test is used to find out the empirical results. In the study, while collecting data on the banks, the return on assets and return on equity have been major factors that are used assignificant proxies in determining the profitability of the banks. Moreover, another major proxy is used in measuring credit and liquidity risks, the loan loss provision to total loan and the ratio of liquid assets to total liability. Meanwhile, with consideration to the previous literature, some other variables such as bank size, bank capital, bank branches, and bank employees have been used to tentatively control the impact of those factors whose direct and indirect effects on profitability is understood. In conclusion, the study emphasizes that credit risk affects return on asset and return on equity positively, and there is no significant difference in term of credit risk between Islamic and conventional banks. Similarly, the liquidity risk has a significant impact on the bank’s profitability, though the marginal effect of liquidity risk is higher for Islamic banks than conventional banks.Keywords: islamic & conventional banks, performance return on equity, return on assets, pakistan banking sectors, profitibility
Procedia PDF Downloads 1515123 Evaluation of Role of Surgery in Management of Pediatric Germ Cell Tumors According to Risk Adapted Therapy Protocols
Authors: Ahmed Abdallatif
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Background: Patients with malignant germ cell tumors have age distribution in two peaks, with the first one during infancy and the second after the onset of puberty. Gonadal germ cell tumors are the most common malignant ovarian tumor in females aged below twenty years. Sacrococcygeal and retroperitoneal abdominal tumors usually presents in a large size before the onset of symptoms. Methods: Patients with pediatric germ cell tumors presenting to Children’s Cancer Hospital Egypt and National Cancer Institute Egypt from January 2008 to June 2011 Patients underwent stratification according to risk into low, intermediate and high risk groups according to children oncology group classification. Objectives: Assessment of the clinicopathologic features of all cases of pediatric germ cell tumors and classification of malignant cases according to their stage, and the primary site to low, intermediate and high risk patients. Evaluation of surgical management in each group of patients focusing on surgical approach, the extent of surgical resection according to each site, ability to achieve complete surgical resection and perioperative complications. Finally, determination of the three years overall and disease-free survival in different groups and the relation to different prognostic factors including the extent of surgical resection. Results: Out of 131 cases surgically explored only 26 cases had re exploration with 8 cases explored for residual disease 9 cases for remote recurrence or metastatic disease and the other 9 cases for other complications. Patients with low risk kept under follow up after surgery, out of those of low risk group (48 patients) only 8 patients (16.5%) shifted to intermediate risk. There were 20 patients (14.6%) diagnosed as intermediate risk received 3 cycles of compressed (Cisplatin, Etoposide and Bleomycin) and all high risk group patients 69patients (50.4%) received chemotherapy. Stage of disease was strongly and significantly related to overall survival with a poorer survival in late stages (stage IV) as compared to earlier stages. Conclusion: Overall survival rate at 3 three years was (76.7% ± 5.4, 3) years EFS was (77.8 % ±4.0), however 3 years DFS was much better (89.8 ± 3.4) in whole study group with ovarian tumors had significantly higher Overall survival (90% ± 5.1). Event Free Survival analysis showed that Male gender was 3 times likely to have bad events than females. Patients who underwent incomplete resection were 4 times more than patients with complete resection to have bad events. Disease free survival analysis showed that Patients who underwent incomplete surgery were 18.8 times liable for recurrence compared to those who underwent complete surgery, and patients who were exposed to re-excision were 21 times more prone to recurrence compared to other patients.Keywords: extragonadal, germ cell tumors, gonadal, pediatric
Procedia PDF Downloads 2115122 Risk of Androgen Deprivation Therapy-Induced Metabolic Syndrome-Related Complications for Prostate Cancer in Taiwan
Authors: Olivia Rachel Hwang, Yu-Hsuan Joni Shao
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Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) has been a primary treatment for patients with advanced prostate cancer. However, it is associated with numerous adverse effects related to Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), including hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, heart diseases and ischemic strokes. However, complications associated with ADT for prostate cancer in Taiwan is not well documented. The purpose of this study is to utilize the data from NHIRD (National Health Insurance Research Database) to examine the trajectory changes of MetS-related complications in men receiving ADT. The risks of developing complications after the treatment were analyzed with multivariate Cox regression model. Covariates including in the model were the complications before the diagnosis of prostate cancer, the age, and the year at cancer diagnosis. A total number of 17268 patients from 1997-2013 were included in this study. The exclusion criteria were patients with any other types of cancer or with the existing MetS-related complications. Changes in MetS-related complications were observed among two treatment groups: 1) ADT (n=9042), and 2) non-ADT (n=8226). The ADT group appeared to have an increased risk in hypertension (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.13, P = 0.001) and hyperlipidemia (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.17, P = 0.02) when compared with non-ADT group in the multivariate Cox regression analyses. In the risk of diabetes, heart diseases, and ischemic strokes, ADT group appeared to have an increased but not significant hazard ratio. In conclusion, ADT was associated with an increased risk in hypertension and hyperlipidemia in prostate cancer patients in Taiwan. The risk of hypertension and hyperlipidemia should be considered while deciding on ADT, especially those with the known history of hypertension and hyperlipidemia.Keywords: androgen deprivation therapy, ADT, complications, metabolic syndrome, MetS, prostate cancer
Procedia PDF Downloads 2825121 Risks of Climate Change on Buildings
Authors: Yahya N. Alfraidi, Abdel Halim Boussabaine
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Climate change risk impacts are one of the most challenging aspects that faces the built environment now and the near future. The impacts of climate change on buildings are considered in four different dimensions: physical, economic, social, and management. For each of these, the risks are discussed as they arise from various effects linked to climate change, including windstorms, precipitation, temperature change, flooding, and sea-level rise. For example, building assets in cities will be exposed to extreme hot summer days and nights due to the urban heat island effect and pollution. Buildings also could be vulnerable to water, electricity, gas, etc., scarcity. Building materials, fabric and systems could also be stressed by the emerging climate risks. More impotently the building users might experience extreme internal and extern comfort conditions leading to lower productivity, wellbeing and health problems. Thus, the main aim of this paper to document the emerging risks from climate change on building assets. An in-depth discussion on the consequences of these climate change risk is provided. It is expected that the outcome of this research will be a set of risk design indicators for developing and procuring resilient building assets.Keywords: climate change, risks of climate change, risks on building from climate change, buildings
Procedia PDF Downloads 6175120 Measuring Banks’ Antifragility via Fuzzy Logic
Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti
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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number
Procedia PDF Downloads 1705119 Develop a Conceptual Data Model of Geotechnical Risk Assessment in Underground Coal Mining Using a Cloud-Based Machine Learning Platform
Authors: Reza Mohammadzadeh
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The major challenges in geotechnical engineering in underground spaces arise from uncertainties and different probabilities. The collection, collation, and collaboration of existing data to incorporate them in analysis and design for given prospect evaluation would be a reliable, practical problem solving method under uncertainty. Machine learning (ML) is a subfield of artificial intelligence in statistical science which applies different techniques (e.g., Regression, neural networks, support vector machines, decision trees, random forests, genetic programming, etc.) on data to automatically learn and improve from them without being explicitly programmed and make decisions and predictions. In this paper, a conceptual database schema of geotechnical risks in underground coal mining based on a cloud system architecture has been designed. A new approach of risk assessment using a three-dimensional risk matrix supported by the level of knowledge (LoK) has been proposed in this model. Subsequently, the model workflow methodology stages have been described. In order to train data and LoK models deployment, an ML platform has been implemented. IBM Watson Studio, as a leading data science tool and data-driven cloud integration ML platform, is employed in this study. As a Use case, a data set of geotechnical hazards and risk assessment in underground coal mining were prepared to demonstrate the performance of the model, and accordingly, the results have been outlined.Keywords: data model, geotechnical risks, machine learning, underground coal mining
Procedia PDF Downloads 2615118 Evaluating the Social Learning Processes Involved in Developing Community-Informed Wildfire Risk Reduction Strategies in the Prince Albert Forest Management Area
Authors: Carly Madge, Melanie Zurba, Ryan Bullock
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The Boreal Forest has experienced some of the most drastic climate change-induced temperature rises in Canada, with average winter temperatures increasing by 3°C since 1948. One of the main concerns of the province of Saskatchewan, and particularly wildfire managers, is the increased risk of wildfires due to climate change. With these concerns in mind Sakaw Askiy Management Inc., a forestry corporation located in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan with operations in the Boreal Forest biome, is developing wildfire risk reduction strategies that are supported by the shareholders of the corporation as well as the stakeholders of the Prince Albert Forest Management Area (which includes citizens, hunters, trappers, cottage owners, and outfitters). In the past, wildfire management strategies implemented through harvesting have been received with skepticism by some community members of Prince Albert. Engagement of the stakeholders of the Prince Albert Management Area through the development of the wildfire risk reduction strategies aims to reduce this skepticism and rebuild some of the trust that has been lost between industry and community. This research project works with the framework of social learning, which is defined as the learning that occurs when individuals come together to form a group with the purpose of understanding environmental challenges and determining appropriate responses to them. The project evaluates the social learning processes that occur through the development of the risk reduction strategies and how the learning has allowed Sakaw to work towards implementing the strategies into their forest harvesting plans. The incorporation of wildfire risk reduction strategies works to increase the adaptive capacity of Sakaw, which in this case refers to the ability to adjust to climate change, moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, and cope with consequences. Using semi-structured interviews and wildfire workshop meetings shareholders and stakeholders shared their knowledge of wildfire, their main wildfire concerns, and changes they would like to see made in the Prince Albert Forest Management Area. Interviews and topics discussed in the workshops were inductively coded for themes related to learning, adaptive capacity, areas of concern, and preferred methods of wildfire risk reduction strategies. Analysis determined that some of the learning that has occurred has resulted through social interactions and the development of networks oriented towards wildfire and wildfire risk reduction strategies. Participants have learned new knowledge and skills regarding wildfire risk reduction. The formation of wildfire networks increases access to information on wildfire and the social capital (trust and strengthened relations) of wildfire personnel. Both factors can be attributed to increases in adaptive capacity. Interview results were shared with the General Manager of Sakaw, where the areas of concern and preferred strategies of wildfire risk reduction will be considered and accounted for in the implementation of new harvesting plans. This research also augments the growing conceptual and empirical evidence of the important role of learning and networks in regional wildfire risk management efforts.Keywords: adaptive capacity, community-engagement, social learning, wildfire risk reduction
Procedia PDF Downloads 1345117 Prevalence and Risk Factors of Faecal Carriage Fluoroquinolone-Resistant Escherichia coli among Hospitalized Patients in Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria
Authors: C. A. Ologunde
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Escherichia coli have been a major microorganisms associated with, and isolated from feacal samples either in adult or children all over the world. Strains of these organisms are resistant to cephalosporins and fluoroquinolone (FQ) antimicrobial agents among hospitalized patients and FQs are the most frequently prescribed antimicrobial class in hospitals, and the level of resistant of E. coli to these antimicrobial agents is a risk factor that should be assessed. Hence, this study was conducted to determine the prevalence and risk factors for colonization with fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistant E. coli in hospitalized patients in Ado-Ekiti. Rectal swabs were obtained from patients in hospitals in the study area and FQ-resistant E. coli were isolated and identified by means of Nalidixic acid multi-disk and a 1-step screening procedure. Species identification and FQ resistance were confirmed by automated testing (Vitek, bioMerieux, USA). Individual colonies were subjected to pulse-field gel electrophoresis (PAGE) to determine macro-restriction polymorphism after digestion of chromosomal DNA. FQ-resistant E. coli was detected in the stool sample of 37(62%) hospitalized patient. With multivariable analyses, the use of FQ before hospitalization was the only independent risk factor for FQ-resistant E. coli carriage and was consistent for FQ exposures for the 3-12 months of study. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of FQ-resistant E. coli identified conal spread of 1(one) strain among 18 patients. Loss (9 patients) or acquisition (10 residents) of FQ-resistant E. coli was documented and was associated with de novo colonization with genetically distinct strains. It was concluded that FQ-resistant E. coli carriage was associated with clonal spread. The differential effects of individual fluoroquinolone on antimicrobial drug resistance are an important area for future study, as hospitals manipulate their formularies with regard to use of individual fluoroquinolone, often for economic reasons.Keywords: E. coli, fluoroquinolone, risk factors, feacal carriage, hospitalized patients, Ado-Ekiti
Procedia PDF Downloads 2275116 Flood Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Nigeria Using Geographic Information System
Authors: Dinebari Akpee, Friday Aabe Gaage, Florence Fred Nwaigwu
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Natural disasters like flood affect many parts of the world including developing countries like Nigeria. As a result, many human lives are lost, properties damaged and so much money is lost in infrastructure damages. These hazards and losses can be mitigated and reduced by providing reliable spatial information to the generality of the people through about flood risks through flood inundation maps. Flood inundation maps are very crucial for emergency action plans, urban planning, ecological studies and insurance rates. Nigeria experience her worst flood in her entire history this year. Many cities were submerged and completely under water due to torrential rainfall. Poor city planning, lack of effective development control among others contributes to the problem too. Geographic information system (GIS) can be used to visualize the extent of flooding, analyze flood maps to produce flood damaged estimation maps and flood risk maps. In this research, the under listed steps were taken in preparation of flood risk maps for the study area: (1) Digitization of topographic data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS (2) Flood simulation using hydraulic model and integration and (3) Integration of the first two steps to produce flood risk maps. The results shows that GIS can play crucial role in Flood disaster control and mitigation.Keywords: flood disaster, risk maps, geographic information system, hazards
Procedia PDF Downloads 2155115 Applying Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Speed Skater Impact Concussion Risk
Authors: Yilin Liao, Hewen Li, Paula McConvey
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Speed skaters often face a risk of concussion when they fall on the ice floor and impact crash mats during practices and competitive races. Several variables, including those related to the skater, the crash mat, and the impact position (body side/head/feet impact), are believed to influence the severity of the skater's concussion. While computer simulation modeling can be employed to analyze these accidents, the simulation process is time-consuming and does not provide rapid information for coaches and teams to assess the skater's injury risk in competitive events. This research paper promotes the exploration of the feasibility of using AI techniques for evaluating skater’s potential concussion severity, and to develop a fast concussion prediction tool using artificial neural networks to reduce the risk of treatment delays for injured skaters. The primary data is collected through virtual tests and physical experiments designed to simulate skater-mat impact. It is then analyzed to identify patterns and correlations; finally, it is used to train and fine-tune the artificial neural networks for accurate prediction. The development of the prediction tool by employing machine learning strategies contributes to the application of AI methods in sports science and has theoretical involvements for using AI techniques in predicting and preventing sports-related injuries.Keywords: artificial neural networks, concussion, machine learning, impact, speed skater
Procedia PDF Downloads 875114 Determinants of Probability Weighting and Probability Neglect: An Experimental Study of the Role of Emotions, Risk Perception, and Personality in Flood Insurance Demand
Authors: Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen
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Individuals often over-weight low probabilities and under-weight moderate to high probabilities, however very low probabilities are either significantly over-weighted or neglected. Little is known about factors affecting probability weighting in Prospect Theory related to emotions specific to risk (anticipatory and anticipated emotions), the threshold of concern, as well as personality traits like locus of control. This study provides these insights by examining factors that influence probability weighting in the context of flood insurance demand in an economic experiment. In particular, we focus on determinants of flood probability neglect to provide recommendations for improved risk management. In addition, results obtained using real incentives and no performance-based payments are compared in the experiment with high experimental outcomes. Based on data collected from 1’041 Dutch homeowners, we find that: flood probability neglect is related to anticipated regret, worry and the threshold of concern. Moreover, locus of control and regret affect probabilistic pessimism. Nevertheless, we do not observe strong evidence that incentives influence flood probability neglect nor probability weighting. The results show that low, moderate and high flood probabilities are under-weighted, which is related to framing in the flooding context and the degree of realism respondents attach to high probability property damages. We suggest several policies to overcome psychological factors related to under-weighting flood probabilities to improve flood preparations. These include policies that promote better risk communication to enhance insurance decisions for individuals with a high threshold of concern, and education and information provision to change the behaviour of internal locus of control types as well as people who see insurance as an investment. Multi-year flood insurance may also prevent short-sighted behaviour of people who have a tendency to regret paying for insurance. Moreover, bundling low-probability/high-impact risks with more immediate risks may achieve an overall covered risk which is less likely to be judged as falling below thresholds of concern. These measures could aid the development of a flood insurance market in the Netherlands for which we find to be demand.Keywords: flood insurance demand, prospect theory, risk perceptions, risk preferences
Procedia PDF Downloads 2645113 Behavior Loss Aversion Experimental Laboratory of Financial Investments
Authors: Jihene Jebeniani
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We proposed an approach combining both the techniques of experimental economy and the flexibility of discrete choice models in order to test the loss aversion. Our main objective was to test the loss aversion of the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). We developed an experimental laboratory in the context of the financial investments that aimed to analyze the attitude towards the risk of the investors. The study uses the lotteries and is basing on econometric modeling. The estimated model was the ordered probit.Keywords: risk aversion, behavioral finance, experimental economic, lotteries, cumulative prospect theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 4605112 The Effect of Drug Prevention Programme Based On Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Multidimensional Self Concept Module Towards Resiliency and Aggression Among At-Risk Youth in Malaysia
Authors: Mohammad Aziz Shah Mohamed Arip, Aslina Ahmad, Fauziah Mohd Sa'ad, Samsiah Mohd Jais, Syed Sofian Syed Salim
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This experimental study evaluates the effect of using Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Multidimensional Self-Concept Model (MSCM) in a drug prevention programme to increase resiliency and reduce aggression among at-risk youth in Malaysia. A number of 60 (N=60) university students who were at-risk of taking drugs were involved in this study. Participants were identified with self-rating scales, Adolescent Resilience Attitude Scale (ARAS) and Aggression Questionnaire. Based on the mean score of these instruments, the participants were divided into the treatment group, and the control group. Data were analyzed using t-test. The finding showed that the mean score of resiliency was increased in the treatment group compared to the control group. It also shows that the mean score of aggression was reduced in the treatment group compared to the control group. Drug Prevention Programme was found to help in enhancing resiliency and reducing aggression among participants in the treatment group compared to the controlled group. Implications were given regarding the preventive actions on drug abuse among youth in Malaysia.Keywords: drug prevention programme, cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), multidimensional self concept model (MSCM), resiliency, aggression, at-risk youth
Procedia PDF Downloads 7145111 Moderating Influence of Environmental Hostility and External Relational Capital on the Effect of Entrepreneurial Orientation on Performance
Authors: Peter Ugbedeojo Nelson
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Despite the tremendous advancements and knowledge acquisition around entrepreneurship orientation (EO) research, there may still be more to learn on how environmental dynamics would permute organizational processes and determine the extent to which success would be achieved. Using the contingency theory, we test a model that proposes a moderating influence of external relational capital and environmental hostility on the EO-performance effect of 423 managers/owners of small and medium scale enterprises. The hypotheses were tested using Hayes simultaneous regression, and the results showed that all EO dimensions (risk-taking, innovation, and performance) had a main effect on performance while the moderating variables interacted well with risk-taking (more than other EO dimensions) to improve performance. However, external relational capital, more than environmental hostility, influences the EO-performance relationship. Our findings highlight the differential ways that EO dimensions interact with environmental contingencies to influence performance. Further studies can examine how competitive aggressiveness and autonomy are moderated by external relational capital and environmental hostility.Keywords: external relational capital, entrepreneurial orientation, risk-taking, innovation, proactiveness
Procedia PDF Downloads 435110 Risk Factors of Becoming NEET Youth in Iran: A Machine Learning Approach
Authors: Hamed Rahmani, Wim Groot
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The term "youth not in employment, education or training (NEET)" refers to a combination of youth unemployment and school dropout. This study investigates the variables that increase the risk of becoming NEET in Iran. A selection bias-adjusted Probit model was employed using machine learning to identify these risk factors. We used cross-sectional data obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and the Ministry of Cooperatives Labour and Social Welfare that was taken from the labour force survey conducted in the spring of 2021. We look at years of education, work experience, housework, the number of children under the age of six in the home, family education, birthplace, and the amount of land owned by households. Results show that hours spent performing domestic chores enhance the likelihood of youth becoming NEET, and years of education and years of potential work experience decrease the chance of being NEET. The findings also show that female youth born in cities were less likely than those born in rural regions to become NEET.Keywords: NEET youth, probit, CART, machine learning, unemployment
Procedia PDF Downloads 1005109 Risks and Values in Adult Safeguarding: An Examination of How Social Workers Screen Safeguarding Referrals from Residential Homes
Authors: Jeremy Dixon
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Safeguarding adults forms a core part of social work practice. The Government in England and Wales has made efforts to standardise practices through The Care Act 2014. The Act states that local authorities have duties to make inquiries in cases where an adult with care or support needs is experiencing or at risk of abuse and is unable to protect themselves from abuse or neglect. Despite the importance given to safeguarding adults within law there remains little research about how social workers conduct such decisions on the ground. This presentation reports on findings from a pilot research study conducted within two social work teams in a Local Authority in England. The objective of the project was to find out how social workers interpreted safeguarding duties as laid out by The Care Act 2014 with a particular focus on how workers assessed and managed risk. Ethnographic research methods were used throughout the project. This paper focusses specifically on decisions made by workers in the assessment team. The paper reports on qualitative observation and interviews with five workers within this team. Drawing on governmentality theory, this paper analyses the techniques used by workers to manage risk from a distance. A high proportion of safeguarding referrals came from care workers or managers in residential care homes. Social workers conducting safeguarding assessments were aware that they had a duty to work in partnership with these agencies. However, their duty to safeguard adults also meant that they needed to view them as potential abusers. In making judgments about when it was proportionate to refer for a safeguarding assessment workers drew on a number of common beliefs about residential care workers which were then tested in conversations with them. Social workers held the belief that residential homes acted defensively, leading them to report any accident or danger. Social workers therefore encouraged residential workers to consider whether statutory criteria had been met and to use their own procedures to manage risk. In addition social workers carried out an assessment of the workers’ motives; specifically whether they were using safeguarding procedures as a shortcut for avoiding other assessments or as a means of accessing extra resources. Where potential abuse was identified social workers encouraged residential homes to use disciplinary policies as a means of isolating and managing risk. The study has implications for understanding risk within social work practice. It shows that whilst social workers use law to govern individuals, these laws are interpreted against cultural values. Additionally they also draw on assumptions about the culture of others.Keywords: adult safeguarding, governmentality, risk, risk assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 2745108 Application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) on the Virtual Process Hazard Analysis of Acetone Production Process
Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras
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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)
Procedia PDF Downloads 1265107 Diagnosing Depression during Pregnancy-Identifying Risk Factors of Prenatal Depression in Polish Women
Authors: Olga Plaza, Katarzyna Kosinska-Kaczynska, Stepan Feduniw, Dominika Pazdzior, Kinga Zebrowska, Katarzyna Kwiatkowska
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Introduction: The main causes of depression among pregnant women remain unclear. However, it is clear that pregnancy carries a higher risk of depression occurrence. Left untreated, prenatal depression can be a cause of serious both maternal and neonatal complications. Aim of the study: The aim of the study was to define potential risk factors of prenatal depression and to assess the frequency of its occurrence among pregnant women. Material and Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was performed among 346 women. The self- composed questionnaire consisting of 46 questions, was distributed via the Internet between November 2017 and March 2018. The questionnaire contained the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), in which the results of 13 and more points (out of 30) suggested possible prenatal depression. Statistical analysis was performed with Chi2 Pearson. P value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: 37.57% (n=130) of women had a score of 13 or more points. Women with depressive symptoms (DS) reported lack of support from the partner (46.9% vs. 16.2%; p < 0.001) as well as other family members (40.8% vs. 14.4%; p < 0.001), current pregnancy being unplanned (21.5% vs. 12.5%; p=0.014) and low socio-economic status (10% vs. 0.9%; p < 0.001). Both early and advanced maternal age seemed to play a role in occurrence of DS: in women aged 17-24 40.8% declared symptoms (vs 28.7%; p < 0.01), in mothers aged ≥37 6.2% did (vs 0.5%; p < 0.001). Smoking during pregnancy was also more frequent among patients with DS (31.5% vs. 18.1%; p=0.004). Previous diagnosis of depression or other mood disorders significantly increased a chance of DS occurrence (respectively- 17.7% vs. 4.6%; p < 0.001 and 49.2% vs. 25%; p<0.001). Parental diagnosis of mood disorders and other mental disorders was also more frequent in this group of patients (respectively- 24.6% vs. 15.7%; p= 0.026 and 26.4% vs. 9.7%; p < 0.001). Only 23.8% of women with DS sought help from healthcare professionals, with 21.5% receiving pharmacological treatment. Conclusions: Pregnant women often report having DS. Evaluation of risk factors of DS and possible prenatal depression is essential in proper screening for depression among pregnant women.Keywords: obstetrics, polish women, prenatal care, prenatal depression, risk factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 2055106 The Risk Assessments of Water Quality in Selected White Water River in Malaysia
Authors: Jaffry Zakaria, Nor Azlina Hasbullah
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The research on water quality based on 'Water Quality Index' (WQI) has been on the run along Kampar River in Perak State of Malaysia. This study was conducted to achieve several key objective that determe the value of the parameters that were studied based on Water Quality Index (WQI). The parameters include Dissolved Oxygen (DO), pH, Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Suspended Solids. In this study, three sampling stations were selected. Through observations from the researchers, several pollutions were found occurring along the research area such as the disposal of waste water directly without treatment from villagers, widespread dumping of solid waste and the development of the surrounding areas that contributed to the pollution of Sungai Kampar in Perak, Malaysia. Sungai Kampar is commonly used for water recreational activities as well as for bathing purposes. Results showed that Sungai Kampar is classified under category III. According to Interim National Water Quality Standard for Malaysia (INWQS), rivers in the third grade are clean but not suitable for river recreational activities. Therefore, there is a requirement to investigate and analysis the water quality of all white water rivers in Malaysia focusing on the area of water activities. The combination of technology and risk management based on risk assessments can help the recreational industry to survive in future.Keywords: risk assessments, White Water River, water quality index (WQI), Interim National Water Quality Standard for Malaysia (INWQS)
Procedia PDF Downloads 3345105 Epidemiological Investigation of Abortion in Ewes in Algeria
Authors: Laatra Zemmouri, Said Boukhechem, Samia Haffaf, Mohamed Lafri
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A study was conducted in order to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with abortion in ewes in the region of M’sila, located in central-eastern Algeria. A questionnaire was carried out to obtain information about the occurrence of abortion, sheep housing conditions, vaccination, feeding and management practices, and whether the farmers kept other livestock. This cross-sectional study was conducted for 36 months (between 2016 and 2019). A total of 71 sheep flocks were visited. Among 8168 ewes, we recorded 734 (8.99%) abortions and 3861 lambings. The risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression showed an association between abortion and vaccination against brucellosis (CI 95%= 2,76-1,35; p<0,001). Abortion decreased when dogs are owned (CI 95%= 0,36-0,84; p= 0.006), however, abortion increased with the presence of cats in farms (CI 95%= 1,24-2,8; p=0.003). There was a significant association between abortion and keeping goats (CI 95%= 1,18-2,40; p= 0.004), bovins (CI 95%= 0,3-0,68; p<0,001) and poultry CI 95%= 0,39-0,77; p= 0.001) in farms. Through this study, it is noticed that a strong association between the occurrence of abortion and estrus synchronization, stillbirth occurrence, and feed supplementation (p<0.05). Identification of the causes of abortion is an important task to reduce foetal losses and to improve livestock productivity.Keywords: abortion, ewes, questionnaire, risk factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 2175104 Heavy Metal Contamination and Environmental Risk in Surface Sediments along the Coasts of Suez and Aqaba Gulfs, Egypt
Authors: Alaa M. Younis, Ismail S. Ismail, Lamiaa I. Mohamedein, Shimaa F. Ahmed
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Sandy surface sediments collected from fourteen sites along the gulfs of Suez and Aqaba coasts, Egypt were analyzed for heavy metals including Iron, Manganese, Zinc, Chromium, Nickel, Lead, Copper and Cadmium in order to evaluate the pollution status and environmental risk assessment of the study area. The obtained results showed that the concentrations of investigated metals are represented in the following sequence; For Gulf of Aqaba sediments Fe > Mn > Zn > Pb > Cr > Ni > Cu > Cd. While for Gulf of Suez Sediments Fe > Mn > Pb > Zn > Cu > Cr > Ni > Cd. The degree of surface sediment contamination using Geo-accumulation index (I geo) and Metal Pollution Index (MPI) was computed. Higher MPI values were observed at the sites III (Nama Bay) and VIII (Rex Beach). According to Sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) approach, Pb and Cu in the gulf of Suez at station IX (Kabanon Beach) had probably adverse ecological effects to marine organisms.Keywords: heavy metal, environmental risk, Suez gulf, Aqaba gulf
Procedia PDF Downloads 433