Search results for: probability assessment

Authors: Qingsong Xiong, Cheng Yuan, Qingzhao Kong, Haibei Xiong

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Deep-learning-driven approaches based on vibration responses have attracted larger attention in rapid structural condition assessment while obtaining sufficient measured training data with corresponding labels is relevantly costly and even inaccessible in practical engineering. This study proposes an integrated label propagation network for structural condition assessment, which is able to diffuse the labels from continuously-generating measurements by intact structure to those of missing labels of damage scenarios. The integrated network is embedded with damage-sensitive features extraction by deep autoencoder and pseudo-labels propagation by optimized fuzzy clustering, the architecture and mechanism which are elaborated. With a sophisticated network design and specified strategies for improving performance, the present network achieves to extends the superiority of self-supervised representation learning, unsupervised fuzzy clustering and supervised classification algorithms into an integration aiming at assessing damage conditions. Both numerical simulations and full-scale laboratory shaking table tests of a two-story building structure were conducted to validate its capability of detecting post-earthquake damage. The identifying accuracy of a present network was 0.95 in numerical validations and an average 0.86 in laboratory case studies, respectively. It should be noted that the whole training procedure of all involved models in the network stringently doesn’t rely upon any labeled data of damage scenarios but only several samples of intact structure, which indicates a significant superiority in model adaptability and feasible applicability in practice.

Keywords: autoencoder, condition assessment, fuzzy clustering, label propagation

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Authors: Elham Bagheri, Yalda Mohsenzadeh

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Image memorability refers to the phenomenon where certain images are more likely to be remembered by humans than others. It is a quantifiable and intrinsic attribute of an image. Understanding how visual perception and memory interact is important in both cognitive science and artificial intelligence. It reveals the complex processes that support human cognition and helps to improve machine learning algorithms by mimicking the brain's efficient data processing and storage mechanisms. To explore the computational underpinnings of image memorability, this study examines the relationship between an image's reconstruction error, distinctiveness in latent space, and its memorability score. A trained autoencoder is used to replicate human-like memorability assessment inspired by the visual memory game employed in memorability estimations. This study leverages a VGG-based autoencoder that is pre-trained on the vast ImageNet dataset, enabling it to recognize patterns and features that are common to a wide and diverse range of images. An empirical analysis is conducted using the MemCat dataset, which includes 10,000 images from five broad categories: animals, sports, food, landscapes, and vehicles, along with their corresponding memorability scores. The memorability score assigned to each image represents the probability of that image being remembered by participants after a single exposure. The autoencoder is finetuned for one epoch with a batch size of one, attempting to create a scenario similar to human memorability experiments where memorability is quantified by the likelihood of an image being remembered after being seen only once. The reconstruction error, which is quantified as the difference between the original and reconstructed images, serves as a measure of how well the autoencoder has learned to represent the data. The reconstruction error of each image, the error reduction, and its distinctiveness in latent space are calculated and correlated with the memorability score. Distinctiveness is measured as the Euclidean distance between each image's latent representation and its nearest neighbor within the autoencoder's latent space. Different structural and perceptual loss functions are considered to quantify the reconstruction error. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the reconstruction error and the distinctiveness of images and their memorability scores. This suggests that images with more unique distinct features that challenge the autoencoder's compressive capacities are inherently more memorable. There is also a negative correlation between the reduction in reconstruction error compared to the autoencoder pre-trained on ImageNet, which suggests that highly memorable images are harder to reconstruct, probably due to having features that are more difficult to learn by the autoencoder. These insights suggest a new pathway for evaluating image memorability, which could potentially impact industries reliant on visual content and mark a step forward in merging the fields of artificial intelligence and cognitive science. The current research opens avenues for utilizing neural representations as instruments for understanding and predicting visual memory.

Keywords: autoencoder, computational vision, image memorability, image reconstruction, memory retention, reconstruction error, visual perception

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Authors: Wafaa M. El- Kotb, Soheir Mohamed Weheida, Manal E. Fareed

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The aim of this study was to determine the effect of implementing a teaching module about diet and exercises on clinical outcomes of patients with gout. Subjects: A purposive sample of 60 adult gouty patients was selected and randomly and alternatively divided into two equal groups 30 patients in each. Setting: The study was conducted in orthopedic out patient's clinic of Menoufia University. Tools of the study: Three tools were utilized for data collection: Knowledge assessment structured interview questionnaire, Clinical manifestation assessment tools and Nutritional assessment sheet. Results: All patients of both groups (100 %) had poor total knowledge score pre teaching, while 90 % of the study group had good total knowledge score post teaching by three months compared to 3.3 % of the control group. Moreover the recovery outcomes were significantly improved among study group compared to control group post teaching. Conclusion: Teaching study group about diet and exercises significantly improved their clinical outcomes. Recommendation: Patient's education about diet and exercises should be ongoing process for patients with gout.

Keywords: clinical outcomes, diet, exercises, teaching module

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Authors: Anna Ching-Yu Wong

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This study aims to identify the quality and effectiveness of the adult programs provided by the public library using the ServQUAL Method and the National Library Public Programs Assessment guidelines (NIPPA, June 2019). ServQUAl covers several variables, namely: tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy. NIPPA guidelines focus on program characteristics, particularly on the outcomes – the level of satisfaction from program participants. The reached populations were adults who participated in library adult programs at a small-town public library in Kansas. This study was designed as quantitative evaluative research which analyzed the quality and effectiveness of the library adult programs by analyzing the role of each factor based on ServQUAL and the NIPPA's library program assessment guidelines. Data were collected from November 2019 to January 2020 using a questionnaire with a Likert Scale. The data obtained were analyzed in a descriptive quantitative manner. The impact of this research can provide information about the quality and effectiveness of existing programs and can be used as input to develop strategies for developing future adult programs. Overall the result of ServQUAL measurement is in very good quality, but still, areas need improvement and emphasis in each variable: Tangible Variables still need improvement in indicators of the temperature and space of the meeting room. Reliability Variable still needs improvement in the timely delivery of the programs. Responsiveness Variable still needs improvement in terms of the ability of the presenters to convey trust and confidence from participants. Assurance Variables still need improvement in the indicator of knowledge and skills of program presenters. Empathy Variable still needs improvement in terms of the presenters' willingness to provide extra assistance. The result of program outcomes measurement based on NIPPA guidelines is very positive. Over 96% of participants indicated that the programs were informative and fun. They learned new knowledge and new skills and would recommend the programs to their friends and families. They believed that together, the library and participants build stronger and healthier communities.

Keywords: ServQual model, ServQual in public libraries, library program assessment, NIPPA library programs assessment

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Authors: Ipek Goktepe, Israa Elnemr, Hammad Asim, Hao Feng, Mosbah Kushad, Hee Park, Sheikha Alzeyara, Mohammad Alhajri

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Food safety management in Qatar is under the shared oversight of multiple agencies in two government ministries (Ministry of Public Health and Ministry of Municipality and Environment). Despite the increasing number and diversity of the food service establishments, no systematic food surveillance system is in place in the country, which creates a gap in terms of determining the food safety attitudes and practices applied in the food service operations. Therefore, this study seeks to partially address this gap through determination of food safety knowledge among food handlers, specifically with respect to food preparation and handling practices, and sanitation methods applied in food service providers (FSPs) and a major market in Doha, Qatar. The study covered a sample of 53 FSPs randomly selected out of 200 FSPs. Face-to-face interviews with managers at participating FSPs were conducted using a 40-questions survey. Additionally, 120 produce handlers who are in direct contact with fresh produce at the major produce market in Doha were surveyed using a questionnaire containing 21 questions. A written informed consent was obtained from each survey participant. The survey data were analyzed using the chi-square test and correlation test. The significance was evaluated at p ˂ 0.05. The results from the FSPs surveys indicated that the average age of FSPs was 11 years, with the oldest and newest being established in 1982 and 2015, respectively. Most managers (66%) had college degree and 68% of them were trained on the food safety management system known as HACCP. These surveys revealed that FSP managers’ training and education level were highly correlated with the probability of their employees receiving food safety training while managers with lower education level had no formal training on food safety for themselves nor for their employees. Casual sit-in and fine dine-in restaurants consistently kept records (100%), followed by fast food (36%), and catering establishments (14%). The produce handlers’ survey results showed that none of the workers had any training on safe produce handling practices. The majority of the workers were in the age range of 31-40 years (37%) and only 38% of them had high-school degree. Over 64% of produce handlers claimed to wash their hands 4-5 times per day but field observations pointed limited handwashing as there was soap in the settings. This observation suggests potential food safety risks since a significant correlation (p ˂ 0.01) between the educational level and the hand-washing practices was determined. This assessment on food safety culture through determination of food and produce handlers' level of knowledge and practices, the first of its kind in Qatar, demonstrated that training and education are important factors which directly impact the food safety culture in FSPs and produce markets. These findings should help in identifying the need for on-site training of food handlers for effective food safety practices in food establishments in Qatar.

Keywords: food safety, food safety culture, food service providers, food handlers

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Authors: Jing Niu, Jun X. Wang

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Arterial stiffness predicts mortality and morbidity, independently of other cardiovascular risk factors. And it is a major risk factor for age-related morbidity and mortality. The non-invasive industry gold standard measurement system of arterial stiffness utilizes pulse wave velocity method. However, the desktop device is expensive and requires trained professional to operate. The main objective of this research is the proof of concept of the proposed non-invasive method which uses measurement of magnetic flux disturbance and electrocardiogram (ECG) signal for measuring arterial stiffness. The method could enable accurate and easy self-assessment of arterial stiffness at home, and to help doctors in research, diagnostic and prescription in hospitals and clinics. A platform for assessing arterial stiffness through acquisition and analysis of radial artery pulse waveform and ECG signal has been developed based on the proposed method. Radial artery pulse waveform is acquired using the magnetic based sensing technology, while ECG signal is acquired using two dry contact single arm ECG electrodes. The measurement only requires the participant to wear a wrist strap and an arm band. Participants were recruited for data collection using both the developed platform and the industry gold standard system. The results from both systems underwent correlation assessment analysis. A strong positive correlation between the results of the two systems is observed. This study presents the possibility of developing an accurate, easy to use and affordable measurement device for arterial stiffness assessment.

Keywords: arterial stiffness, electrocardiogram, pulse wave velocity, Magnetic Flux Disturbance

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Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

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Power systems are innately uncertain systems. To face with such uncertain systems, robust uncertainty assessment tools are appealed. This paper inspects the uncertainty assessment formulation of the load flow (LF) problem considering different kinds of uncertainties, developed in its companion paper through some case studies. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. The load and wind power generation are considered as probabilistic uncertain variables and the electric vehicles (EVs) and gas turbine distributed generation (DG) units are considered as possibilistic uncertain variables. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the system output parameters obtained by the pure probabilistic method lies within the belief and plausibility functions obtained by the joint propagation approach. Furthermore, the imprecision in the DG parameters is explicitly reflected by the gap between the belief and plausibility functions. This gap, due to the epistemic uncertainty on the DG resources parameters grows as the penetration level increases.

Keywords: electric vehicles, joint possibilistic- probabilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: Rafla Hchaichi

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The public administration is currently experiencing in the field of quality unprecedented effervescence. However, in a globalized world more and more competitive, public services are confronted with the need to improve their performances which push public companies to implement quality approaches. Quality approaches have taken diverse forms such as service commitment, labels, certifications and the Common Assessment Framework. This paper provides an overview on the strategy for administrative development in Tunisia since the Carthaginian civilization until today. It outlines the evolution of quality management in the Tunisian public context while focusing on the National Referential of Quality of Administrative Services.

Keywords: quality approach, the common assessment framework, service commitment, label, certification, quality of public service, performance of public service, Tunisian Public Service

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Authors: F. A. Thomas, M. Schrafl-Altermatt, R. Treier, S. Kaufmann

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Stroke is the main cause of adult disability. Especially upper limb function is affected in most patients. Recently, cooperative hand movements have been shown to be a promising type of upper limb training in stroke rehabilitation. In these movements, which are frequently found in activities of daily living (e.g. opening a bottle, winding up a blind), the force of one upper limb has to be equally counteracted by the other limb to successfully accomplish a task. The use of standardized and reliable clinical assessments is essential to evaluate the efficacy of therapy and the functional outcome of a patient. Many assessments for upper limb function or impairment are available. However, the evaluation of cooperative hand movement tasks are rarely included in those. Thus, the aim of this study was (i) to develop a novel clinical assessment (CASA - Cooperative Activity Stroke Assessment) for the evaluation of patients’ capacity to perform cooperative hand movements and (ii) to test its inter- and interrater reliability. Furthermore, CASA scores were compared to current gold standard assessments for upper extremity in stroke patients (i.e. Fugl-Meyer Assessment, Box & Blocks Test). The CASA consists of five cooperative activities of daily living including (1) opening a jar, (2) opening a bottle, (3) open and closing of a zip, (4) unscrew a nut and (5) opening a clipbox. Here, the goal is to accomplish the tasks as fast as possible. In addition to the quantitative rating (i.e. time) which is converted to a 7-point scale, also the quality of the movement is rated in a 4-point scale. To test the reliability of CASA, fifteen stroke subjects were tested within a week twice by the same two raters. Intra-and interrater reliability was calculated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for total CASA score and single items. Furthermore, Pearson-correlation was used to compare the CASA scores to the scores of Fugl-Meyer upper limb assessment and the box and blocks test, which were assessed in every patient additionally to the CASA. ICC scores of the total CASA score indicated an excellent- and single items established a good to excellent inter- and interrater reliability. Furthermore, the CASA score was significantly correlated to the Fugl-Meyer and Box & Blocks score. The CASA provides a reliable assessment for cooperative hand movements which are crucial for many activities of daily living. Due to its non-costly setup, easy and fast implementation, we suggest it to be well suitable for clinical application. In conclusion, the CASA is a useful tool in assessing the functional status and therapy related recovery in cooperative hand movement capacity in stroke patients.

Keywords: activitites of daily living, clinical assessment, cooperative hand movements, reliability, stroke

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Main goal of the research project is Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model (SURAM) formulation, developed for the assessment of risk levels as a various construction process stages with various work trades. Finally, in 2016, the project received financing by the National Center for Research and development according to PBS3/A2/19/2015–Research Grant. The presented data, calculations and analyzes discussed in this paper were created as a result of the completion on the first and second phase of the PBS3/A2/19/2015 project. Method: One of the arms of the research project is the assessment of worker visual concentration on the sight zones as well as risky visual point inadequate observation. In this part of research, the mobile eye-tracker was used to monitor the worker observation zones. SMI Eye Tracking Glasses is a tool, which allows us to analyze in real time and place where our eyesight is concentrated on and consequently build the map of worker's eyesight concentration during a shift. While the project is still running, currently 64 construction sites have been examined, and more than 600 workers took part in the experiment including monitoring of typical parameters of the work regimen, workload, microclimate, sound vibration, etc. Full equipment can also be useful in more advanced analyses. Because of that technology we have verified not only main focus of workers eyes during work on or next to scaffolding, but we have also examined which changes in the surrounding environment during their shift influenced their concentration. In the result of this study it has been proven that only up to 45.75% of the shift time, workers’ eye concentration was on one of three work-related areas. Workers seem to be distracted by noisy vehicles or people nearby. In opposite to our initial assumptions and other authors’ findings, we observed that the reflective parts of the scaffoldings were not more recognized by workers in their direct workplaces. We have noticed that the red curbs were the only well recognized part on a very few scaffoldings. Surprisingly on numbers of samples, we have not recognized any significant number of concentrations on those curbs. Conclusion: We have found the eye-tracking method useful for the construction of the SURAM model in the risk perception and worker’s behavior sub-modules. We also have found that the initial worker's stress and work visual conditions seem to be more predictive for assessment of the risky developing situation or an accident than other parameters relating to a work environment.

Keywords: accident assessment model, eye tracking, occupational safety, scaffolding

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Authors: Melodi Mbuyi Mata, Blessing Olamide Taiwo, Afolabi Ayodele David

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The purpose of this research is to create empirical models for assessing the profitability of granite aggregate production in Akure, Ondo state aggregate quarries. In addition, an artificial neural network (ANN) model and multivariate predicting models for granite profitability were developed in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data for the study. The data extracted from the case study mine for this study includes granite marketing operations, royalty, production costs, and mine production information. The following methods were used to achieve the goal of this study: descriptive statistics, MATLAB 2017, and SPSS16.0 software in analyzing and modeling the data collected from granite traders in the study areas. The ANN and Multi Variant Regression models' prediction accuracy was compared using a coefficient of determination (R²), Root mean square error (RMSE), and mean square error (MSE). Due to the high prediction error, the model evaluation indices revealed that the ANN model was suitable for predicting generated profit in a typical quarry. More quarries in Nigeria's southwest region and other geopolitical zones should be considered to improve ANN prediction accuracy.

Keywords: national development, granite, profitability assessment, ANN models

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Authors: Tingting Huang, Sha Li, Geoffrey Griffiths, Martin Lukac, Jianning Zhu

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Territorial landscapes have experienced a gradual loss of their typical characteristics during long-term human activities. In order to protect the integrity of regional landscapes, it is necessary to characterize, evaluate and protect them in a graded manner. The study takes Fujian, China, as an example and classifies the landscape characters of the site at the regional scale, middle scale, and detailed scale. A multi-scale approach combining parametric and holistic approaches is used to classify and partition the landscape character types (LCTs) and landscape character areas (LCAs) at different scales, and a multi-element landscape assessment approach is adopted to explore the conservation strategies of the landscape character. Firstly, multiple fields and multiple elements of geography, nature and humanities were selected as the basis of assessment according to the scales. Secondly, the study takes a parametric approach to the classification and partitioning of landscape character, Principal Component Analysis, and two-stage cluster analysis (K-means and GMM) in MATLAB software to obtain LCTs, combines with Canny Operator Edge Detection Algorithm to obtain landscape character contours and corrects LCTs and LCAs by field survey and manual identification methods. Finally, the study adopts the Landscape Sensitivity Assessment method to perform landscape character conservation analysis and formulates five strategies for different LCAs: conservation, enhancement, restoration, creation, and combination. This multi-scale identification approach can efficiently integrate multiple types of landscape character elements, reduce the difficulty of broad-scale operations in the process of landscape character conservation, and provide a basis for landscape character conservation strategies. Based on the natural background and the restoration of regional characteristics, the results of landscape character assessment are scientific and objective and can provide a strong reference in regional and national scale territorial spatial planning.

Keywords: parameterization, multi-scale, landscape character identify, landscape character assessment

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Authors: Abdulaziz Alkathiry

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Concussion is a common brain injury that affect physical and cognitive performance. While several studies indicated that adolescents are more likely to develop concussion, in the last decade concussion has been mainly explored in adults. Migraine has been identified as a common symptom reported after concussion and was tied with worse prognoses. Hence, we aimed to investigate the effect of migraine on functional performance and self-reported symptoms in children with concussion. This cross-sectional study involved 35 symptomatic children aged 9 – 17 years recruited within 1 year from their concussion injury at a tertiary balance center. Participants’ symptoms and functional performance were assessed using the post-concussion symptoms scale (PCSS) and the functional gait assessment (FGA) respectively. Concussed children with migraine showed significantly worse symptoms including fatigue, sleeping impairment, difficulty concentrating, and visual problems (P < 0.05). Functional performance didn’t show differences between concussed children with and without migraine. Although concussed children with and without migraine didn’t show any differences on functional performance, worse cognitive symptoms were found in concussed children with migraine. A customized treatment approach is indicated in the presence of migraine for the management of children with concussion. Keywords: Concussion; Migraine; Balance; Post-Concussion Symptoms Scale; Functional Gait Assessment

Keywords: concussion, migraine, post-concussion symptoms scale, functional gait assessment, balance

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Authors: Rabab Makki, Deputy Chief Dietitian

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Malnutrition is commonly seen in Liver Disease patients. Prevalence of malnutrition in cirrhosis, is as high as 65-90%. Protein depletion and reduced muscle function are common. There are many mechanisms of malnutrition in liver cirrhosis e.g. insulin resistance, low respiratory quotient, increased glucogenesis etc. Nutrition support improves outcome in patients unable to maintain an intake of 35-40 Kcal/kg and 1.2-1.5 gm/kg/day. Simple methods of assessment such as subjective global assessment, calorie counting, MMC are useful. The value of BCAAs remains uncertain despite a considerable number of studies. Normal protein diets have been given safely to patients with hepatic encephalopathy. Restriction of protein not more than 48 hours pre- and pro-biotic, glutamine, fish oil etc are all part of the latest advanced techniques used.

Keywords: liver cirrhosis, omega 3 for liver disease, nutrition management, malnutrition

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Authors: Saman Javadi, Mehdi Hashemy, Mohahammad Mahmoodi

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Vulnerability maps are employed as an important solution in order to handle entrance of pollution into the aquifers. The common way to provide vulnerability map is DRASTIC. Meanwhile, application of the method is not easy to apply for any aquifer due to choosing appropriate constant values of weights and ranks. In this study, a new approach using k-means clustering is applied to make vulnerability maps. Four features of depth to groundwater, hydraulic conductivity, recharge value and vadose zone were considered at the same time as features of clustering. Five regions are recognized out of the case study represent zones with different level of vulnerability. The finding results show that clustering provides a realistic vulnerability map so that, Pearson’s correlation coefficients between nitrate concentrations and clustering vulnerability is obtained 61%.

Keywords: clustering, data mining, groundwater, vulnerability assessment

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Authors: Ayesha M. Facey

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The evaluation sought to determine the factors associated with the high failure rate among students taking a first-year introductory statistics course. By utilizing Tyler’s Objective Based Model, the main objectives were: to assess the effectiveness of the lecturer’s teaching strategies; to determine the proportion of students who attends lectures and tutorials frequently and to determine the impact of infrequent attendance on performance; to determine how the assigned activities assisted in students understanding of the course content; to ascertain the possible issues being faced by students in understanding the course material and obtain possible solutions to the challenges and to determine whether the learning outcomes have been achieved based on an assessment of the second in-course examination. A quantitative survey research strategy was employed and the study population was students enrolled in semester one of the academic year 2015/2016. A convenience sampling approach was employed resulting in a sample of 98 students. Primary data was collected using self-administered questionnaires over a one-week period. Secondary data was obtained from the results of the second in-course examination. Data were entered and analyzed in SPSS version 22 and both univariate and bivariate analyses were conducted on the information obtained from the questionnaires. Univariate analyses provided description of the sample through means, standard deviations and percentages while bivariate analyses were done using Spearman’s Rho correlation coefficient and Chi-square analyses. For secondary data, an item analysis was performed to obtain the reliability of the examination questions, difficulty index and discriminant index. The examination results also provided information on the weak areas of the students and highlighted the learning outcomes that were not achieved. Findings revealed that students were more likely to participate in lectures than tutorials and that attendance was high for both lectures and tutorials. There was a significant relationship between participation in lectures and performance on examination. However, a high proportion of students has been absent from three or more tutorials as well as lectures. A higher proportion of students indicated that they completed the assignments obtained from the lectures sometimes while they rarely completed tutorial worksheets. Students who were more likely to complete their assignments were significantly more likely to perform well on their examination. Additionally, students faced a number of challenges in understanding the course content and the topics of probability, binomial distribution and normal distribution were the most challenging. The item analysis also highlighted these topics as problem areas. Problems doing mathematics and application and analyses were their major challenges faced by students and most students indicated that some of the challenges could be alleviated if additional examples were worked in lectures and they were given more time to solve questions. Analysis of the examination results showed that a number of learning outcomes were not achieved for a number of topics. Based on the findings recommendations were made that suggested adjustments to grade allocations, delivery of lectures and methods of assessment.

Keywords: evaluation, item analysis, Tyler’s objective based model, university statistics

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Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

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Authors: Desmond Young

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In building services electrical design, a key element of any project will be assessing the electrical load requirements. This needs to be done early in the design process to allow the selection of infrastructure that would be required to meet the electrical needs of the type of building. The type of building will define the type of assessment made, and the values applied in defining the maximum demand for the building, and ultimately the size of supply or infrastructure required, and the application that needs to be made to the distribution network operator, or alternatively to an independent network operator. The fact that this assessment needs to be undertaken early in the design process provides limits on the type of assessment that can be used, as different methods require different types of information, and sometimes this information is not available until the latter stages of a project. A common method applied in the earlier design stages of a project, typically during stages 1,2 & 3, is the use of benchmarks. It is a possibility that some of the benchmarks applied are excessive in relation to the current loads that exist in a modern installation. This lack of accuracy is based on information which does not correspond to the actual equipment loads that are used. This includes lighting and small power loads, where the use of more efficient equipment and lighting has reduced the maximum demand required. The electrical load can be used as part of the process to assess the heat generated from the equipment, with the heat gains from other sources, this feeds into the sizing of the infrastructure required to cool the building. Any overestimation of the loads would contribute to the increase in the design load for the heating and ventilation systems. Finally, with the new policies driving the industry to decarbonise buildings, a prime example being the recently introduced London Plan, loads are potentially going to increase. In addition, with the advent of the pandemic and changes to working practices, and the adoption of electric heating and vehicles, a better understanding of the loads that should be applied will aid in ensuring that infrastructure is not oversized, as a cost to the client, or undersized to the detriment of the building. In addition, more accurate benchmarks and methods will allow assessments to be made for the incorporation of energy storage and renewable technologies as these technologies become more common in buildings new or refurbished.

Keywords: energy, ADMD, electrical load assessment, energy benchmarks

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Authors: Samuel Emeka Anarah, Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Obasi Arinze

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Quantifying the hydrological response due to changes in climate change is imperative for proper management of water resources within a watershed. The impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Ebony River (UER) watershed, South East Nigeria, was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A climatological time series analysis from 1985 - 2014 using non-parametric test showed significant negative trends in precipitation and relative humidity trend while minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and wind speed showed significant positive trends. Future hypothetical land-use change scenarios (Scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4) representing urbanization and conversion of forest to agricultural land were combined with future downscaled climate model (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0) and simulated in SWAT model. Relative to the Baseline scenario (2005 - 2014), the results showed a decrease in streamflow by 10.29%, 26.20%, 11.80% and 26.72% for Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Model results suggest development of adaptation strategies to cope with the predicted hydrological conditions under future climate change in the watershed.

Keywords: climate change, hydrology, runoff, SWAT model

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Authors: A. Esra İdemen, Sinan M. Şener, Emrah Acar

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The technological paradigm of the disaster management field, especially in the case of governmental intervention strategies, is generally based on rapid and flexible accommodation solutions. From various technical solution patterns used to address the immediate housing needs of disaster victims, the adaptive re-use of existing buildings can be considered to be both low-cost and practical. However, there is a scarcity of analytical methods to screen, select and adapt buildings to help decision makers in cases of emergency. Following an extensive literature review, this paper aims to highlight key points and problem areas associated with the adaptive re-use of buildings within the disaster management context. In other disciplines such as real estate management, the adaptive re-use potential (ARP) of existing buildings is typically based on the prioritization of a set of technical and non-technical criteria which are then weighted to arrive at an economically viable investment decision. After a disaster, however, the assessment of the ARP of buildings requires consideration of different/additional layers of analysis which stem from general disaster management principles and the peculiarities of different types of disasters, as well as of their victims. In this paper, a discussion of the development of an adaptive re-use potential (ARP) assessment model is presented. It is thought that governmental and non-governmental decision makers who are required to take quick decisions to accommodate displaced masses following disasters are likely to benefit from the implementation of such a model.

Keywords: adaptive re-use of buildings, disaster management, temporary housing, assessment model

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Authors: Dana Christensen

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Undergraduate students, particularly in the environmental sciences, have difficulty displaying quantitative skills in their laboratory courses. Students spend time sampling in the field, often using new methods, and are expected to make sense of the data they collect. Computational thinking may be used to navigate these new experiences. We developed a curriculum for the marine science department at a small liberal arts college in the Northeastern United States based on previous computational thinking frameworks. This curriculum incorporates marine science data sets with specific objectives and topics selected by the faculty at the College. The curriculum was distributed to all students enrolled in introductory marine science classes as a mandatory module. Two pre-tests and post-tests will be used to quantitatively assess student progress on both content-based and computational principles. Student artifacts are being collected with each lesson to be coded for content-specific and computational-specific items in qualitative assessment. There is an overall gap in marine science education research, especially curricula that focus on computational thinking and associated quantitative assessment. The curricula itself, the assessments, and our results may be modified and applied to other environmental science courses due to the nature of the inquiry-based laboratory components that use quantitative skills to understand nature.

Keywords: marine science, computational thinking, curriculum assessment, quantitative skills

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Authors: Nino Chikhladze, Tamar Dochviri, Nato Pitskhelauri, Maia Bitskhinashvili

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Population aging is a key social and demographic trend of the 21st century. Falls represent a prevalent geriatric syndrome that poses significant risks to the health and independence of older adults. The World Health Organization notes a lack of comprehensive data on falls in low- and middle-income countries, complicating the creation of effective prevention programs. To the authors’ best knowledge, no such studies have been conducted in Georgia. The aim of the study is to explore the epidemiology of falls in the elderly population. The hospitalization database of the National Center for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia was used for the retrospective study. Falls-related injuries were identified using ICD-10 classifications using the class XIX (S and T codes) and class XX for the type of injury (V-Y codes). Statistical data analyses were done using SPSS software version 23.0. The total number of fall-related hospitalizations for individuals aged 65 and older from 2015 to 2021 was 29,697. The study revealed that falls accounted for an average of 63% (ranging from 59% to 66%) of all hospitalizations and 68% (ranging from 65% to 70%) of injury-related hospitalizations during this period. The 69% of all patients were women and 31%-men (Chi2=4482.1, p<0.001). The highest rate of hospitalization was in the age groups 80-84 and 75-79. The probability of fall-related hospitalization was significantly higher in women (p<0.001) compared to men in all age groups except 65-69 years. In the target age group of 65 years and older, the probability of hospitalization increased significantly with an increase in age (p<0.001). The study's results can be leveraged to create evidence-based awareness programs, design targeted multi-domain interventions addressing specific risk factors, and enhance the quality of geriatric healthcare services in Georgia.

Keywords: elderly population, falls, geriatric patients, hospitalization, injuries

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Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao

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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.

Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis

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Authors: Michael McCann

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Managerial theories propose that, in joint stock companies, executives may be tempted to waste excess free cash on unprofitable projects to keep control of resources. In order to conceal their projects' poor performance, they may seek to engage in earnings management. On the one hand, managers may manipulate earnings upwards in order to post ‘good’ performances and safeguard their position. On the other, since managers pursuit of unrewarding investments are likely to lead to low long-term profitability, managers will use negative accruals to reduce current year’s earnings, smoothing earnings over time in order to conceal the negative effects. Agency models argue that boards of directors are delegated by shareholders to ensure that companies are governed properly. Part of that responsibility is ensuring the reliability of financial information. Analyses of the impact of board characteristics, particularly board independence on the misuse of free cash flow and earnings management finds conflicting evidence. However, existing characterizations of board independence do not account for such directors gaining firm-specific knowledge over time, influencing their monitoring ability. Further, there is little analysis of the influence of the relative experience of independent directors and executives on decisions surrounding the use of free cash. This paper contributes to this literature regarding the heterogeneous characteristics of boards by investigating the influence of independent director tenure on earnings management and the relative tenures of independent directors and Chief Executives. A balanced panel dataset comprising 51 companies across 11 annual periods from 2005 to 2015 is used for the analysis. In each annual period, firms were classified as conducting earnings management if they had discretionary accruals in the bottom quartile (downwards) and top quartile (upwards) of the distributed values for the sample. Logistical regressions were conducted to determine the marginal impact of independent board tenure and a number of control variables on the probability of conducting earnings management. The findings indicate that both absolute and relative measures of board independence and experience do not have a significant impact on the likelihood of earnings management. It is the level of free cash flow which is the major influence on the probability of earnings management. Higher free cash flow increases the probability of earnings management significantly. The research also investigates whether board monitoring of earnings management is contingent on the level of free cash flow. However, the results suggest that board monitoring is not amplified when free cash flow is higher. This suggests that the extent of earnings management in companies is determined by a range of company, industry and situation-specific factors.

Keywords: corporate governance, boards of directors, agency theory, earnings management

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Authors: Anabel Fernandez, Leandro Rodriguez-Ortiz, Rosa RodríGuez

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Due to the negative impact of fossil fuels, renewable energies are promising sources to limit global temperature rise and damage to the environment. Also, the development of technology is focused on obtaining energetic products from renewable sources. In this study, a thermodynamic model including Exergy balance and a subsequent Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) were carried out for four subsystems of the integrated gasification-combustion of pinewood. Results of exergy analysis and LCA showed the process feasibility in terms of exergy efficiency and global energy efficiency of the life cycle (GEELC). Moreover, the energy return on investment (EROI) index was calculated. The global exergy efficiency resulted in 67 %. For pretreatment, reaction, cleaning, and electric generation subsystems, the results were 85, 59, 87, and 29 %, respectively. Results of LCA indicated that the emissions from the electric generation caused the most damage to the atmosphere, water, and soil. GEELC resulted in 31.09 % for the global process. This result suggested the environmental feasibility of an integrated gasification-combustion system. EROI resulted in 3.15, which determinates the sustainability of the process.

Keywords: exergy analysis, life cycle assessment (LCA), renewability, sustainability

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Authors: Chenyao Shen, Jie Shen

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The rating system provides an effective framework for assessing building environmental performance and integrating sustainable development into building and construction processes; as it can be used as a design tool by developing appropriate sustainable design strategies and determining performance measures to guide the sustainable design and decision-making processes. Healthcare buildings are resource (water, energy, etc.) intensive. To maintain high-cost operations and complex medical facilities, they require a great deal of hazardous and non-hazardous materials, stringent control of environmental parameters, and are responsible for producing polluting emission. Compared with other types of buildings, the impact of healthcare buildings on the full cycle of the environment is particularly large. With broad recognition among designers and operators that energy use can be reduced substantially, many countries have set up their own green rating systems for healthcare buildings. There are four main green healthcare building evaluation systems widely acknowledged in the world - Green Guide for Health Care (GGHC), which was jointly organized by the United States HCWH and CMPBS in 2003; BREEAM Healthcare, issued by the British Academy of Building Research (BRE) in 2008; the Green Star-Healthcare v1 tool, released by the Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA) in 2009; and LEED Healthcare 2009, released by the United States Green Building Council (USGBC) in 2011. In addition, the German Association of Sustainable Building (DGNB) has also been developing the German Sustainable Building Evaluation Criteria (DGNB HC). In China, more and more scholars and policy makers have recognized the importance of assessment of sustainable development, and have adapted some tools and frameworks. China’s first comprehensive assessment standard for green building (the GBTs) was issued in 2006 (lately updated in 2014), promoting sustainability in the built-environment and raise awareness of environmental issues among architects, engineers, contractors as well as the public. However, healthcare building was not involved in the evaluation system of GBTs because of its complex medical procedures, strict requirements of indoor/outdoor environment and energy consumption of various functional rooms. Learn from advanced experience of GGHC, BREEAM, and LEED HC above, China’s first assessment criteria for green hospital/healthcare buildings was finally released in December 2015. Combined with both quantitative and qualitative assessment criteria, the standard highlight the differences between healthcare and other public buildings in meeting the functional needs for medical facilities and special groups. This paper has focused on the assessment criteria framework for sustainable healthcare buildings, for which the comparison of different rating systems is rather essential. Descriptive analysis is conducted together with the cross-matrix analysis to reveal rich information on green assessment criteria in a coherent manner. The research intends to know whether the green elements for healthcare buildings in China are different from those conducted in other countries, and how to improve its assessment criteria framework.

Keywords: assessment criteria framework, green building design, healthcare building, building performance rating tool

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Authors: Majid Bayatian, Mohammadreza Ashouri

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Releasing hazardous chemicals is one of the major problems for office buildings in the chemical industry and, therefore, environmental risks are inherent to these environments. The adverse health effects of the airborne concentration of benzene have been a matter of significant concern, especially in oil refineries. The chronic and acute adverse health effects caused by benzene exposure have attracted wide attention. Acute exposure to benzene through inhalation could cause headaches, dizziness, drowsiness, and irritation of the skin. Chronic exposures have reported causing aplastic anemia and leukemia at the occupational settings. Association between chronic occupational exposure to benzene and the development of aplastic anemia and leukemia were documented by several epidemiological studies. Numerous research works have investigated benzene emissions and determined benzene concentration at different locations of the refinery plant and stated considerable health risks. The high cost of industrial control measures requires justification through lifetime health risk assessment of exposed workers and the public. In the present study, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model has been proposed to assess the exposure risk of office building around a refinery due to its release of benzene. For simulation, GAMBIT, FLUENT, and CFD Post software were used as pre-processor, processor, and post-processor, and the model was validated based on comparison with experimental results of benzene concentration and wind speed. Model validation results showed that the model is highly validated, and this model can be used for health risk assessment. The simulation and risk assessment results showed that benzene could be dispersion to an office building nearby, and the exposure risk has been unacceptable. According to the results of this study, a validated CFD model, could be very useful for decision-makers for control measures and possibly support them for emergency planning of probable accidents. Also, this model can be used to assess exposure to various types of accidents as well as other pollutants such as toluene, xylene, and ethylbenzene in different atmospheric conditions.

Keywords: health risk assessment, office building, Benzene, numerical simulation, CFD

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Authors: Anam Noshaba, Mahr Muhammad Saeed Akhtar

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The aim of this study was to find out the relationship between quality education and organizational culture. The population of this study was all the teachers of Public Degree Colleges located in Punjab. A sample of 400 teachers was selected by using a simple random sampling technique. Quality Education Assessment Questionnaire (QEAQ) and Organizational Culture Assessment Instrument (OCAI) were used for data collection. Out of all, 90% of teachers responded. Findings showed that quality education and organizational culture are positively correlated. Results indicated that there is no difference in quality education and organizational culture by demographic variables of teachers. Future research is needed to study the viewpoint of other stakeholders of education regarding quality education and organizational culture.

Keywords: quality education, minimum quality standards, organizational culture, college level

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Authors: Dinesh Inamadar, R. Venugopalan, K. Padmini

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An attempt has been made in the present communication to elucidate the efficacy of robust ANOVA methods to analyze horticultural field experimental data in the presence of outliers. Results obtained fortify the use of robust ANOVA methods as there was substantiate reduction in error mean square, and hence the probability of committing Type I error, as compared to the regular approach.

Keywords: outliers, robust ANOVA, horticulture, cook distance, type I error

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Authors: Sergo Tsiramua, Sulkhan Sulkhanishvili, Elisabed Asabashvili, Lazare Kvirtia

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The paper presents logical-probabilistic methods, models, and algorithms for reliability assessment of complex systems, based on which a web application for structural analysis and reliability assessment of systems was created. It is important to design systems based on structural analysis, research, and evaluation of efficiency indicators. One of the important efficiency criteria is the reliability of the system, which depends on the components of the structure. Quantifying the reliability of large-scale systems is a computationally complex process, and it is advisable to perform it with the help of a computer. Logical-probabilistic modeling is one of the effective means of describing the structure of a complex system and quantitatively evaluating its reliability, which was the basis of our application. The reliability assessment process included the following stages, which were reflected in the application: 1) Construction of a graphical scheme of the structural reliability of the system; 2) Transformation of the graphic scheme into a logical representation and modeling of the shortest ways of successful functioning of the system; 3) Description of system operability condition with logical function in the form of disjunctive normal form (DNF); 4) Transformation of DNF into orthogonal disjunction normal form (ODNF) using the orthogonalization algorithm; 5) Replacing logical elements with probabilistic elements in ODNF, obtaining a reliability estimation polynomial and quantifying reliability; 6) Calculation of “weights” of elements of system. Using the logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms discussed in the paper, a special software was created, by means of which a quantitative assessment of the reliability of systems of a complex structure is produced. As a result, structural analysis of systems, research, and designing of optimal structure systems are carried out.

Keywords: complex systems, logical-probabilistic methods, orthogonalization algorithm, reliability of systems, “weights” of elements

Procedia PDF Downloads 66