Search results for: prediction modelling

Authors: Yahya Lavafpour, Steve Sharples

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This study investigated the potential negative impacts of future UK climate change on dwellings. In particular, the risk of overheating was considered for a Passivhaus dwelling in London. The study used dynamic simulation modelling software to investigate the potential use of building geometry to control current and future overheating risks in the dwelling for London climate. Specifically, the focus was on the optimum inclination of a south façade to make use of the building’s shape to self-protect itself. A range of different inclined façades were examined to test their effectiveness in reducing the overheating risk. The research found that implementing a 115° tilted façade could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in current climate, but with some consequence for natural ventilation and daylighting. Future overheating was significantly reduced by the tilted façade. However, geometric considerations could not eradicate completely the risk of overheating particularly by the 2080s. The study also used CFD modelling and sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the façade geometry on the wind pressure distributions on and around the building surface. This was done to assess natural ventilation flows for alternative façade inclinations.

Keywords: climate change, tilt façade, thermal comfort, passivhaus, overheating

Procedia PDF Downloads 750

Authors: Mohamed Aly, Aliaa Rehan Youssef, Emad Sawerees, Mounir Guirgis

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Relevance: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common degenerative disease seen in all populations. It causes disability and substantial socioeconomic burden. Evidence supports that exercise are the most effective conservative treatment for patients with OA. Therapists experience and clinical judgment play major role in exercise prescription and scientific evidence for this regard is lacking. The development of clinical prediction rules to identify patients who are most likely benefit from exercise may help solving this dilemma. Purpose: This study investigated whether body mass index and functional ability at baseline can predict patients’ response to a selected exercise program. Approach: Fifty-six patients, aged 35 to 65 years, completed an exercise program consisting of open kinetic chain strengthening and passive stretching exercises. The program was given for 3 sessions per week, 45 minutes per session, for 6 weeks Evaluation: At baseline and post treatment, pain severity was assessed using the numerical pain rating scale, whereas functional ability was being assessed by step test (ST), time up and go test (TUG) and 50 feet time walk test (50 FTW). After completing the program, global rate of change (GROC) score of greater than 4 was used to categorize patients as successful and non-successful. Thirty-eight patients (68%) had successful response to the intervention. Logistic regression showed that BMI and 50 FTW test were the only significant predictors. Based on the results, patients with BMI less than 34.71 kg/m2 and 50 FTW test less than 25.64 sec are 68% to 89% more likely to benefit from the exercise program. Conclusions: Clinicians should consider the described strengthening and flexibility exercise program for patents with BMI less than 34.7 Kg/m2 and 50 FTW faster than 25.6 seconds. The validity of these predictors should be investigated for other exercise.

Keywords: clinical prediction rule, knee osteoarthritis, physical therapy exercises, validity

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Authors: Man Singh Meena

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Structural engineers are facing different kind of challenges due to innovative & bold ideas of architects who are trying to design every structure with uniqueness. In RCC frame structures different geometry of columns can be used in design and rectangular columns can be placed with different type orientation. The analysis is design of structures can also be carried out by different type of software available i.e., STAAD Pro, ETABS and TEKLA. In recent times high-rise building modeling & analysis is done by ETABS due to its certain features which are superior to other software. The case study in this paper mainly emphasizes on structural behavior of high rise building for different column shape configurations like Circular, Square, Rectangular and Rectangular with 90-degree Rotation and rectangular shape plan. In all these column shapes the areas of columns are kept same to study the effect on design of concrete area is same. Modelling of 20-storeys R.C.C. framed building is done on the ETABS software for analysis. Post analysis of the structure, maximum bending moments, shear forces and maximum longitudinal reinforcement are computed and compared for three different story structures to identify the effectiveness of geometry of column.

Keywords: high-rise building, column geometry, building modelling, ETABS analysis, building design, structural analysis, structural optimization

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Authors: Sukhbir Singh

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This paper describes the modeling of novel solar air collector (NSAC) system by using artificial neural network (ANN) model. The objective of the study is to demonstrate the application of the ANN model to predict the performance of the NSAC with acetamide as a phase change material (PCM) storage. Input data set consist of time, solar intensity and ambient temperature wherever as outlet air temperature of NSAC was considered as output. Experiments were conducted between 9.00 and 24.00 h in June and July 2014 underneath the prevailing atmospheric condition of Kurukshetra (city of the India). After that, experimental results were utilized to train the back propagation neural network (BPNN) to predict the outlet air temperature of NSAC. The results of proposed algorithm show that the BPNN is effective tool for the prediction of responses. The BPNN predicted results are 99% in agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: Evacuated tube solar air collector, Artificial neural network, Phase change material, solar air collector

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Authors: Luis F. Garcia, Julian E. Jaramillo, Jorge L. Chacón

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Colombia is a country where the benefits of wind power industry are barely used because of the geography in some areas does not allow the implementation of onshore horizontal axis wind turbines. Furthermore, exist rural areas without access to the electrical grid. Therefore, there is currently a deficit of energy supply in some towns. This research took place in one of those areas (i.e. Chicamocha Canyon-Santander) where the answer to the energy supply problems could be the use of vertical axis wind turbines, which can be used for turbulent flows. Hence, one task of this research is the analysis of the wind resources in the Chicamocha Canyon in order to implement the wind energy. The wind turbines must be designed in such a way that the blades take good advantage of the wind resources in the area of interest. Consequently, in the current research the analysis of two different airfoils (i.e. NACA0018 and DU 06-W-200) through a 2D CFD simulation is carried out by means of a free-software (OpenFOAM). Predicted results using the “Spalart-Allmaras” turbulence model are similar to the wind tunnel data published in the literature. Moreover, global parameters such as dimensionless lift and drag coefficients were calculated. Finally, this research encourages VAWT studies under wind turbulent flows in order to achieve the best use of natural resources in Colombia.

Keywords: airfoil, wind turbine, turbulence modelling, Chicamocha, CFD

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Authors: Mohammadamin Hashemi, Mohammadreza Kashizadeh

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Droughts pose a significant threat to sustainable water resource management, agriculture, and socioeconomic sectors, particularly in the field of climate change. This study investigates drought simulation using rainfall-runoff modelling in the Cuneo district, Italy, over the past 60-year period. The study leverages the TUW model, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model with a semi-distributed operation capability. Similar in structure to the widely used Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, the TUW model operates on daily timesteps for input and output data specific to each catchment. It incorporates essential routines for snow accumulation and melting, soil moisture storage, and streamflow generation. Multiple catchments' discharge data within the Cuneo district form the basis for thorough model calibration employing the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric. A crucial metric for reliable drought analysis is one that can accurately represent low-flow events during drought periods. This ensures that the model provides a realistic picture of water availability during these critical times. Subsequent validation of monthly discharge simulations thoroughly evaluates overall model performance. Beyond model development, the investigation delves into drought analysis using the robust Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). This index allows for precise characterization of drought occurrences within the study area. A meticulous comparison of observed and simulated discharge data is conducted, with particular focus on low-flow events that characterize droughts. Additionally, the study explores the complex interplay between land characteristics (e.g., soil type, vegetation cover) and climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) that influence the severity and duration of hydrological droughts. The study's findings demonstrate successful calibration of the TUW model across most catchments, achieving commendable model efficiency. Comparative analysis between simulated and observed discharge data reveals significant agreement, especially during critical low-flow periods. This agreement is further supported by the Pareto coefficient, a statistical measure of goodness-of-fit. The drought analysis provides critical insights into the duration, intensity, and severity of drought events within the Cuneo district. This newfound understanding of spatial and temporal drought dynamics offers valuable information for water resource management strategies and drought mitigation efforts. This research deepens our understanding of drought dynamics in the Cuneo region. Future research directions include refining hydrological modelling techniques and exploring future drought projections under various climate change scenarios.

Keywords: hydrologic extremes, hydrological drought, hydrological modelling, machine learning, rainfall-runoff modelling

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Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

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The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

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Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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Authors: Afaque Manzoor Soomro, Faheem Ahmed, Fida Hussain Memon, Kyung Hyun Choi

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This paper proposes the bioinspired soft frog robot. All printing technology was used for the fabrication of the robot. Polyjet printing was used to print the front and back limbs, while ultrathin filament was used to print the body of the robot, which makes it a complete soft swimming robot. The dual thrust generation approach has been proposed by embedding the main muscle and antagonistic muscle in all the limbs, which enables it to attain high speed (18 mm/s), and significant control of swimming in dual modes (synchronous and asynchronous modes). To achieve the swimming motion of the frog, the design, motivated by the rigorous modelling and real frog dynamics analysis, enabled the as-developed frog robot (FROBOT) to swim at a significant level of consistency with the real frog. The FROBOT (weighing 65 g) can swim at different controllable frequencies (0.5–2Hz) and can turn in any direction by following custom-made LabVIEW software’s commands which enables it to swim at speed up to 18 mm/s on the surface of deep water (100 cm) with excellent weight balance.

Keywords: soft robotics, soft actuator, frog robot, 3D printing

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Authors: Misuk Kim, Seokho Kang, Jehyuk Lee, Hyunchang Cho, Sungzoon Cho

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In semiconductor manufacturing, virtual metrology (VM) refers to methods to predict properties of a wafer based on machine parameters and sensor data of the production equipment, without performing the (costly) physical measurement of the wafer properties (Wikipedia). Additional benefits include avoidance of human bias and identification of important factors affecting the quality of the process which allow improving the process quality in the future. It is however rare to find VM applied to other areas of manufacturing. In this work, we propose to use VM to copper clad laminate (CCL) manufacturing. CCL is a core element of a printed circuit board (PCB) which is used in smartphones, tablets, digital cameras, and laptop computers. The manufacturing of CCL consists of three processes: Treating, lay-up, and pressing. Treating, the most important process among the three, puts resin on glass cloth, heat up in a drying oven, then produces prepreg for lay-up process. In this process, three important quality factors are inspected: Treated weight (T/W), Minimum Viscosity (M/V), and Gel Time (G/T). They are manually inspected, incurring heavy cost in terms of time and money, which makes it a good candidate for VM application. We developed prediction models of the three quality factors T/W, M/V, and G/T, respectively, with process variables, raw material, and environment variables. The actual process data was obtained from a CCL manufacturer. A variety of variable selection methods and learning algorithms were employed to find the best prediction model. We obtained prediction models of M/V and G/T with a high enough accuracy. They also provided us with information on “important” predictor variables, some of which the process engineers had been already aware and the rest of which they had not. They were quite excited to find new insights that the model revealed and set out to do further analysis on them to gain process control implications. T/W did not turn out to be possible to predict with a reasonable accuracy with given factors. The very fact indicates that the factors currently monitored may not affect T/W, thus an effort has to be made to find other factors which are not currently monitored in order to understand the process better and improve the quality of it. In conclusion, VM application to CCL’s treating process was quite successful. The newly built quality prediction model allowed one to reduce the cost associated with actual metrology as well as reveal some insights on the factors affecting the important quality factors and on the level of our less than perfect understanding of the treating process.

Keywords: copper clad laminate, predictive modeling, quality control, virtual metrology

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Authors: Jahedul Islam Chowdhury, Bao Kha Nguyen, David Thornhill, Roy Douglas, Stephen Glover

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Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) is the most commonly used method for recovering energy from small sources of heat. The investigation of the ORC in supercritical condition is a new research area as it has a potential to generate high power and thermal efficiency in a waste heat recovery system. This paper presents a steady state ORC model in supercritical condition and its simulations with a real engine’s exhaust data. The key component of ORC, evaporator, is modelled using finite volume method, modelling of all other components of the waste heat recovery system such as pump, expander and condenser are also presented. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of mass flow rate and evaporator outlet temperature on the efficiency of the waste heat recovery process. Additionally, the necessity of maintaining an optimum evaporator outlet temperature is also investigated. Simulation results show that modification of mass flow rate is the key to changing the operating temperature at the evaporator outlet.

Keywords: Organic Rankine cycle, supercritical condition, steady state model, waste heat recovery

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Authors: Adel Francis

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Most of scheduling methods and software apply the critical path logic. This logic schedule activities, apply constraints between these activities and try to optimize and level the allocated resources. The extensive use of this logic produces a complex an erroneous network hard to present, follow and update. Planning and management building projects should tackle the coordination of works and the management of limited spaces, traffic, and supplies. Activities cannot be performed without the resources available and resources cannot be used beyond the capacity of workplaces. Otherwise, workspace congestion will negatively affect the flow of works. The objective of the space planning is to link the spatial and temporal aspects, promote efficient use of the site, define optimal site occupancy rates, and ensures suitable rotation of the workforce in the different spaces. The Chronographic scheduling modelling belongs to this category and models construction operations as well as their processes, logical constraints, association and organizational models, which help to better illustrate the schedule information using multiple flexible approaches. The model defined three categories of areas (punctual, surface and linear) and four different layers (space creation, systems, closing off space, finishing, and reduction of space). The Chronographical modelling is a more complete communication method, having the ability to alternate from one visual approach to another by manipulation of graphics via a set of parameters and their associated values. Each individual approach can help to schedule a certain project type or specialty. Visual communication can also be improved through layering, sheeting, juxtaposition, alterations, and permutations, allowing for groupings, hierarchies, and classification of project information. In this way, graphic representation becomes a living, transformable image, showing valuable information in a clear and comprehensible manner, simplifying the site management while simultaneously utilizing the visual space as efficiently as possible.

Keywords: building projects, chronographic modelling, CPM, critical path, precedence diagram, scheduling

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Authors: Ammar Alali, Mahmoud Abughaban

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Cost reduction and drilling optimization is the goal of many drilling operators. Historically, stuck pipe incidents were a major segment of non-productive time (NPT) associated costs. Traditionally, stuck pipe problems are part of the operations and solved post-sticking. However, the real key to savings and success is in predicting the stuck pipe incidents and avoiding the conditions leading to its occurrences. Previous attempts in stuck-pipe predictions have neglected the local geology of the problem. The proposed predictive tool utilizes geophysical data processing techniques and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict drilling activities events in real-time using surface drilling data with minimum computational power. The method combines two types of analysis: (1) real-time prediction, and (2) cause analysis. Real-time prediction aggregates the input data, including historical drilling surface data, geological formation tops, and petrophysical data, from wells within the same field. The input data are then flattened per the geological formation and stacked per stuck-pipe incidents. The algorithm uses two physical methods (stacking and flattening) to filter any noise in the signature and create a robust pre-determined pilot that adheres to the local geology. Once the drilling operation starts, the Wellsite Information Transfer Standard Markup Language (WITSML) live surface data are fed into a matrix and aggregated in a similar frequency as the pre-determined signature. Then, the matrix is correlated with the pre-determined stuck-pipe signature for this field, in real-time. The correlation used is a machine learning Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) algorithm, which selects relevant features from the class and identifying redundant features. The correlation output is interpreted as a probability curve of stuck pipe incidents prediction in real-time. Once this probability passes a fixed-threshold defined by the user, the other component, cause analysis, alerts the user of the expected incident based on set pre-determined signatures. A set of recommendations will be provided to reduce the associated risk. The validation process involved feeding of historical drilling data as live-stream, mimicking actual drilling conditions, of an onshore oil field. Pre-determined signatures were created for three problematic geological formations in this field prior. Three wells were processed as case studies, and the stuck-pipe incidents were predicted successfully, with an accuracy of 76%. This accuracy of detection could have resulted in around 50% reduction in NPT, equivalent to 9% cost saving in comparison with offset wells. The prediction of stuck pipe problem requires a method to capture geological, geophysical and drilling data, and recognize the indicators of this issue at a field and geological formation level. This paper illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the proposed cross-disciplinary approach in its ability to produce such signatures and predicting this NPT event.

Keywords: drilling optimization, hazard prediction, machine learning, stuck pipe

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Authors: Subhamita Chakraborty, Shubhabrata Datta, Sujay Kumar Mukherjea, Partha Protim Chattopadhyay

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Manufacturing of multiphase high strength steel in hot strip mill have drawn significant attention due to the possibility of forming low temperature transformation product of austenite under continuous cooling condition. In such endeavor, reliable prediction of temperature profile of hot strip coil is essential in order to accesses the evolution of microstructure at different location of hot strip coil, on the basis of corresponding Continuous Cooling Transformation (CCT) diagram. Temperature distribution profile of the hot strip coil has been determined by using finite volume method (FVM) vis-à-vis finite difference method (FDM). It has been demonstrated that FVM offer greater computational reliability in estimation of contact pressure distribution and hence the temperature distribution for curved and irregular profiles, owing to the flexibility in selection of grid geometry and discrete point position, Moreover, use of finite volume concept allows enforcing the conservation of mass, momentum and energy, leading to enhanced accuracy of prediction.

Keywords: simulation, modeling, thermal analysis, coil cooling, contact pressure, finite volume method

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Authors: Alexander V. Spirov, David M. Holloway, Ekaterina M. Myasnikova

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Segmentation of the early Drosophila embryo results from the dynamic establishment of spatial gene expression patterns. Patterning occurs on an embryo geometry which is a 'deformed' prolate ellipsoid, with anteroposterior and dorsal-ventral major and minor axes, respectively. Patterning is largely independent along each axis, but some interaction can be seen in the 'bending' of the segmental expression stripes. This interaction is not well understood. In this report, we investigate how 3D geometrical features of the early embryo affect the segmental expression patterning. Specifically, we study the effect of geometry on formation of the Bicoid primary morphogenetic gradient. Our computational results demonstrate that embryos with a much longer ventral than dorsal surface ('bellied') can produce curved Bicoid concentration contours which could activate curved stripes in the downstream pair-rule segmentation genes. In addition, we show that having an extended source for Bicoid in the anterior of the embryo may be necessary for producing the observed exponential form of the Bicoid gradient along the anteroposterior axis.

Keywords: Drosophila embryo, bicoid morphogenetic gradient, exponential expression profile, expression surface form, segmentation genes, 3D modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: M.Rüştü Karaman, İsmail İşeri, Kadir Saltalı, A.Reşit Brohi, Ayhan Horuz, Mümin Dizman

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Considerable relations has recently been given to the environmental hazardous caused by agricultural chemicals such as excess fertilizers. In this study, a neural network approach was investigated in the prediction of potential nitrate pollution across different land-use patterns by using a feedforward multilayered computer model of artificial neural network (ANN) with proper training. Periodical concentrations of some anions, especially nitrate (NO3-), and cations were also detected in drainage waters collected from the drain pipes placed in irrigated tomato field, unirrigated wheat field, fallow and pasture lands. The soil samples were collected from the irrigated tomato field and unirrigated wheat field on a grid system with 20 m x 20 m intervals. Site specific nitrate concentrations in the soil samples were measured for ANN based simulation of nitrate leaching potential from the land profiles. In the application of ANN model, a multi layered feedforward was evaluated, and data sets regarding with training, validation and testing containing the measured soil nitrate values were estimated based on spatial variability. As a result of the testing values, while the optimal structures of 2-15-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for unirrigated field, the optimal structures of 2-10-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for irrigated field. The results showed that the ANN model could be successfully used in prediction of the potential leaching levels of nitrate, based on different land use patterns. However, for the most suitable results, the model should be calibrated by training according to different NN structures depending on site specific soil parameters and varied agricultural managements.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ANN, drainage water, nitrate pollution

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Authors: Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Kovačević, Lidija Jevrić, Evgenija Djurendić, Jovana Ajduković

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In the present study, the molecular modeling of a series of 24 17-picolyl and 17-picolinylidene androstane derivatives whit significant anticancer activity was carried out. Modelling of studied compounds was performed by CS ChemBioDraw Ultra v12.0 program for drawing 2D molecular structures and CS ChemBio3D Ultra v12.0 for 3D molecular modelling. The obtained 3D structures were subjected to energy minimization using molecular mechanics force field method (MM2). The cutoff for structure optimization was set at a gradient of 0.1 kcal/Åmol. Full geometry optimization was done by the Austin Model 1 (AM1) until the root mean square (RMS) gradient reached a value smaller than 0.0001 kcal/Åmol using Molecular Orbital Package (MOPAC) program. The obtained physicochemical, lipophilicity and topological descriptors were used for analysis of molecular similarities and dissimilarities applying suitable chemometric methods (principal component analysis and cluster analysis). These results are the part of the project No. 114-451-347/2015-02, financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina and CMST COST Action CM1306.

Keywords: androstane derivatives, anticancer activity, chemometrics, molecular descriptors

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Leo Laine, Morgan Johansson

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To meet the civilizations future needs for safe living and low environmental footprint, the engineers designing the complex systems of tomorrow will need efficient ways to model and optimize these systems for their intended purpose. For example, a civil defence shelter and its subsystem components needs to withstand, e.g. airblast and ground shock from decided design level explosion which detonates with a certain distance from the structure. In addition, the complex civil defence shelter needs to have functioning air filter systems to protect from toxic gases and provide clean air, clean water, heat, and electricity needs to also be available through shock and vibration safe fixtures and connections. Similar complex building systems can be found in any concentrated living or office area. In this paper, the authors use a multidomain modelling language called Modelica to model a concrete wall as a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system with elastoplastic properties with the implemented option of plastic hardening. The elastoplastic model was developed and implemented in the open source tool OpenModelica. The simulation model was tested on the case with a transient equivalent reflected pressure time history representing an airblast from 100 kg TNT detonating 15 meters from the wall. The concrete wall is approximately regarded as a concrete strip of 1.0 m width. This load represents a realistic threat on any building in a city like area. The OpenModelica model results were compared with an Excel implementation of a SDOF model with an elastic-plastic spring using simple fixed timestep central difference solver. The structural displacement results agreed very well with each other when it comes to plastic displacement magnitude, elastic oscillation displacement, and response times.

Keywords: airblast from explosives, elastoplastic spring model, Modelica modelling language, SDOF, structural response of concrete structure

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector auto-regressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel Model, neural networks, Svensson Model, vector autoregressive model, yield curve

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Authors: Prateeksha Mahamallik, Anjali Pal

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In the present study, Co(II)-adsolubilized surfactant modified alumina (SMA) was prepared, and methylene blue (MB) degradation was carried out on Co-SMA surface by visible light photo-Fenton process. The entire reaction proceeded on solid surface as MB was embedded on Co-SMA surface. The reaction followed zero order kinetics. Response surface methodology (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used for modeling the decolorization of MB by photo-Fenton process as a function of dose of Co-SMA (10, 20 and 30 g/L), initial concentration of MB (10, 20 and 30 mg/L), concentration of H2O2 (174.4, 348.8 and 523.2 mM) and reaction time (30, 45 and 60 min). The prediction capabilities of both the methodologies (RSM and ANN) were compared on the basis of correlation coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), standard error of prediction (SEP), relative percent deviation (RPD). Due to lower value of RMSE (1.27), SEP (2.06) and RPD (1.17) and higher value of R2 (0.9966), ANN was proved to be more accurate than RSM in order to predict decolorization efficiency.

Keywords: adsolubilization, artificial neural network, methylene blue, photo-fenton process, response surface methodology

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Authors: B. Umaru Mohammed, Faris A. Al-Maziad, Mohammad Y. Numan

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One of the most important factors affecting the energy performance within a building is a carefully and efficiently designed facade. The primary aim of this research was to identify and present the potentiality of utilising Double-Skin Facade (DSF) construction and critically examine its effect on the energy consumption of an office building located within a maritime desert climate as to the conventional single-skin curtain wall system. A comparative analysis of the effect on the overall energy consumption within an office building was investigated in which a combination of various Double-Skin Facade configurations, systems, and cavity depths, glazing types and orientations were utilised. A computer dynamic modelling was utilised in order to ensure accurate calculations and efficient simulations of the various DSF systems due to the complex nature of the various functions within the Facade cavity. Through the use of the dynamic thermal modelling simulations, the best cavity size glazed type and orientation were determined to lead to a detailed analysis of the efficiency of each respective combination of Double-Skin Facade construction. As such the optimal facade combination for use within an office building located in a maritime desert climate was identified. Results demonstrated that a multi-story Facade, depending on its configuration, save up to 5% on annual cooling loads respect to a Corridor Facade and while vented can save unto 12% when compared to the single skin façade, on annual cooling load in the maritime desert climate. The selected configuration of the DSF from SSF saves an overall annual cooling load of 32%.A comparative analysis of the effect on the overall energy consumption within an office building was investigated in which a combination of various Double-Skin Facade configurations, systems, and cavity depths, glazing types and orientations were utilized. A computer dynamic modelling was utilized in order to ensure accurate calculations and efficient simulations of the various DSF systems due to the complex nature of the various functions within the Facade cavity. Through the use of the dynamic thermal modelling simulations, the best cavity size glazed type and orientation were determined to lead to a detailed analysis of the efficiency of each respective combination of Double-Skin Facade construction. As such the optimal facade combination for use within an office building located in a maritime desert climate was identified. Results demonstrated that a multi-story Facade, depending on its configuration, save up to 5% on annual cooling loads respect to a Corridor Facade and while vented can save unto 12% when compared to the single skin facade, on annual cooling load in the maritime desert climate. The selected configuration of the DSF from SSF saves an overall annual cooling load of 32%.

Keywords: computer dynamics modelling, comparative analysis, energy computation, double skin facade, single skin curtain wall, maritime desert climate

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Monika Rawat, Rahul Kumar

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Input output Buffer Information Specification (IBIS) models are used for describing the analog behavior of the Input Output (I/O) buffers of a digital device. They are widely used to perform signal integrity analysis. Advantages of using IBIS models include simple structure, IP protection and fast simulation time with reasonable accuracy. As design complexity of driver and receiver increases, capturing exact behavior from transistor level model into IBIS model becomes an essential task to achieve better accuracy. In this paper, an improvement in existing methodology of generating IBIS model for complex I/O interfaces such as Inter-Integrated Circuit (I2C) and Low Voltage Differential Signaling (LVDS) is proposed. Furthermore, the accuracy and computational performance of standard method and proposed approach with respect to SPICE are presented. The investigations will be useful to further improve the accuracy of IBIS models and to enhance their wider acceptance.

Keywords: IBIS, signal integrity, open-drain buffer, low voltage differential signaling, behavior modelling, transient simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Urbánek Jiří J., Krahulec Josef, Urbánek Jiří F., Johanidesová Jitka

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These Computational assistance for the research and modelling of critical infrastructure subjects continuity deal with this paper. It enables us the using of prevailing operation system MS Office (SmartArt...) for mathematical models, using DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) method. It serves for crisis situations investigation and modelling within the organizations of critical infrastructure. In the first part of the paper, it will be introduced entities, operators and actors of DYVELOP method. It uses just three operators of Boolean algebra and four types of the entities: the Environments, the Process Systems, the Cases and the Controlling. The Process Systems (PrS) have five “brothers”: Management PrS, Transformation PrS, Logistic PrS, Event PrS and Operation PrS. The Cases have three “sisters”: Process Cell Case, Use Case and Activity Case. They all need for the controlling of their functions special Ctrl actors, except ENV – it can do without Ctrl. Model´s maps are named the Blazons and they are able mathematically - graphically express the relationships among entities, actors and processes. In the second part of this paper, the rich blazons of DYVELOP method will be used for the discovering and modelling of the cycling cases and their phases. The blazons need live PowerPoint presentation for better comprehension of this paper mission. The crisis management of energetic crisis infrastructure organization is obliged to use the cycles for successful coping of crisis situations. Several times cycling of these cases is a necessary condition for the encompassment of the both the emergency event and the mitigation of organization´s damages. Uninterrupted and continuous cycling process bring for crisis management fruitfulness and it is a good indicator and controlling actor of organizational continuity and its sustainable development advanced possibilities. The research reliable rules are derived for the safety and reliable continuity of energetic critical infrastructure organization in the crisis situation.

Keywords: blazons, computational assistance, DYVELOP method, critical infrastructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: Yunus Onur Yildiz, Mesut Kirca

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In this study, mechanical properties of a nanoporous metal coated with a different metallic material are studied through a new atomistic modelling technique and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. This new atomistic modelling technique is based on the Voronoi tessellation method for the purpose of geometric representation of the ligaments. With the proposed technique, atomistic models of nanoporous metals which have randomly oriented ligaments with non-uniform mass distribution along the ligament axis can be generated by enabling researchers to control both ligament length and diameter. Furthermore, by the utilization of this technique, atomistic models of coated nanoporous materials can be numerically obtained for further mechanical or thermal characterization. In general, this study consists of two stages. At the first stage, we use algorithms developed for generating atomic coordinates of the coated nanoporous material. In this regard, coordinates of randomly distributed points are determined in a controlled way to be employed in the establishment of the Voronoi tessellation, which results in randomly oriented and intersected line segments. Then, line segment representation of the Voronoi tessellation is transformed to atomic structure by a special process. This special process includes generation of non-uniform volumetric core region in which atoms can be generated based on a specific crystal structure. As an extension, this technique can be used for coating of nanoporous structures by creating another volumetric region encapsulating the core region in which atoms for the coating material are generated. The ultimate goal of the study at this stage is to generate atomic coordinates that can be employed in the MD simulations of randomly organized coated nanoporous structures. At the second stage of the study, mechanical behavior of the coated nanoporous models is investigated by examining deformation mechanisms through MD simulations. In this way, the effect of coating on the mechanical behavior of the selected material couple is investigated.

Keywords: atomistic modelling, molecular dynamic, nanoporous metals, voronoi tessellation

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Pavel Shcherban, Vlad Golovanov

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Nowadays, the depletion of hydrocarbon deposits on the land of the Kaliningrad region leads to active geological exploration and development of oil and natural gas reserves in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. LLC 'Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft' implements a comprehensive program for the development of the region's shelf in 2014-2023. Due to heterogeneity of reservoir rocks in various open fields, as well as with ambiguous conclusions on the contours of deposits, additional geological prospecting and refinement of the recoverable oil reserves are carried out. The key element is use of an effective technique of computer stock modeling at the first stage of processing of the received data. The following step uses information for the cluster analysis, which makes it possible to optimize the field development approaches. The article analyzes the effectiveness of various methods for reserves' calculation and computer modelling methods of the offshore hydrocarbon fields. Cluster analysis allows to measure influence of the obtained data on the development of a technical and economic model for mining deposits. The relationship between the accuracy of the calculation of recoverable reserves and the need of modernization of existing mining infrastructure, as well as the optimization of the scheme of opening and development of oil deposits, is observed.

Keywords: cluster analysis, computer modelling of deposits, correction of the feasibility study, offshore hydrocarbon fields

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Congping Lin

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Intracellular transport in fungi has a number of important roles in, e.g., filamentous fungal growth and cellular metabolism. Two basic mechanisms for intracellular transport are motor-driven trafficking along microtubules (MTs) and diffusion. Mathematical modelling has been actively developed to understand such intracellular transport and provide unique insight into cellular complexity. Based on live-cell imaging data in Ustilago hyphal cells, probabilistic models have been developed to study mechanism underlying spatial organization of molecular motors and organelles. In particular, anther mechanism - stochastic motility of dynein motors along MTs has been found to contribute to half of its accumulation at hyphal tip in order to support early endosome (EE) recycling. The EE trafficking not only facilitates the directed motion of peroxisomes but also enhances their diffusive motion. Considering the importance of spatial organization of early endosomes in supporting peroxisome movement, computational and experimental approaches have been combined to a whole-cell level. Results from this interdisciplinary study promise insights into requirements for other membrane trafficking systems (e.g., in neurons), but also may inform future 'synthetic biology' studies.

Keywords: intracellular transport, stochastic process, molecular motors, spatial organization

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Olivia A. Wilson, Hannah E. Power, Murray Kendall

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Sydney Harbour is an iconic location with a dense population and low-lying development. On the east coast of Australia, facing the Pacific Ocean, it is exposed to several tsunamigenic trenches. This paper presents a component of the most detailed assessment of the potential for earthquake-generated tsunami impact on Sydney Harbour to date. Models in this study use dynamic tides to account for tide-tsunami interaction. Sydney Harbour’s tidal range is 1.5 m, and the spring tides from January 2015 that are used in the modelling for this study are close to the full tidal range. The tsunami wave trains modelled include hypothetical tsunami generated from earthquakes of magnitude 7.5, 8.0, 8.5, and 9.0 M_W from the Puysegur and New Hebrides trenches as well as representations of the historical 1960 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku events. All wave trains are modelled for the peak wave to coincide with both a low tide and a high tide. A single wave train, representing a 9.0 M_W earthquake at the Puysegur trench, is modelled for peak waves to coincide with every hour across a 12-hour tidal phase. Using the hydrodynamic model ANUGA, results are compared according to the impact parameters of inundation area, depth variation and current speeds. Results show that both maximum inundation area and depth variation are tide dependent. Maximum inundation area increases when coincident with a higher tide, however, hazardous inundation is only observed for the larger waves modelled: NH90high and P90high. The maximum and minimum depths are deeper on higher tides and shallower on lower tides. The difference between maximum and minimum depths varies across different tidal phases although the differences are slight. Maximum current speeds are shown to be a significant hazard for Sydney Harbour; however, they do not show consistent patterns according to tide-tsunami phasing. The maximum current speed hazard is shown to be greater in specific locations such as Spit Bridge, a narrow channel with extensive marine infrastructure. The results presented for Sydney Harbour are novel, and the conclusions are consistent with previous modelling efforts in the greater area. It is shown that tide must be a consideration for both tsunami modelling and emergency management planning. Modelling with peak tsunami waves coinciding with a high tide would be a conservative approach; however, it must be considered that maximum current speeds may be higher on other tides.

Keywords: emergency management, sydney, tide-tsunami interaction, tsunami impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Moustafa Osman

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Modeling of air pollutants from the accidental release is performed for quantifying the impact of industrial facilities into the ambient air. The mathematical methods are requiring for the prediction of the accidental scenario in probability of failure-safe mode and analysis consequences to quantify the environmental damage upon human health. The initial statement of mitigation plan is supporting implementation during production and maintenance periods. In a number of mathematical methods, the flow rate at which gaseous and liquid pollutants might be accidentally released is determined from various types in term of point, line and area sources. These emissions are integrated meteorological conditions in simplified stability parameters to compare dispersion coefficients from non-continuous air pollution plumes. The differences are reflected in concentrations levels and greenhouse effect to transport the parcel load in both urban and rural areas. This research reveals that the elevation effect nearby buildings with other structure is higher 5 times more than open terrains. These results are agreed with Sutton suggestion for dispersion coefficients in different stability classes.

Keywords: air pollutants, dispersion modeling, GIS, health effect, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Sanja Pfeifer, Nataša Šarlija, Marina Jeger, Ana Bilandžić

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The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.

Keywords: creative industries, growth prediction model, growth determinants, growth measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 315