Search results for: fuzzy probability score

Authors: Riona Dighe

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This research attempts to identify an alternative approach to the measurement of Gross National Happiness (GNH). It uses artificial intelligence (AI), incorporating natural language processing (NLP) and sentiment analysis to measure GNH. We use ‘off the shelf’ NLP models responsible for the sentiment analysis of a sentence as a building block for this research. We constructed an algorithm using NLP models to derive a sentiment analysis score against sentences. This was then tested against a sample of 20 respondents to derive a sentiment analysis score. The scores generated resembled human responses. By utilising the MLP classifier, decision tree, linear model, and K-nearest neighbors, we were able to obtain a test accuracy of 89.97%, 54.63%, 52.13%, and 47.9%, respectively. This gave us the confidence to use the NLP models against sentences in websites to measure the GNH of a country.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, NLP, sentiment analysis, gross national happiness

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Authors: Khawla Saad Albalawi

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The aim of this research was to explore the effectiveness of the internet counseling in reducing social shyness among the university's students. The sample consisted of 40 students and was divided into two groups: an experimental group and a control group. The social shyness scale (SSS) was administered to both groups before applying the counseling to the experimental group (as a pre-test). After that, the internet counseling was applied to the experimental group. Next, the SSS was administered to both groups (as a post-test). Finally, the SSS was administered to the experimental group (as an iterative application). Results suggest that: 1. There is a significant difference between the two groups in the post-test in all dimensions and the total score of the (SSS) in favor of the experimental group in all cases. 2. There is a significant difference between the pre- and the post-test of the experimental group in all dimensions and the total score of the (SSS) in favor of the post-test in all cases. 3. There is no significant difference between the post-test and the iterative application of the experimental group in all dimensions and the total score of the (SSS). The above results were discussed in light of previous research. Recommendations and future researches were suggested.

Keywords: internet psychological clinics, social interaction disorders, shyness, Twitter, Facebook

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Authors: Tahmidul Islam

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Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique has been widely used for estimating causal effect of treatment in observational studies. One major step of implementing PSM is estimating the propensity score (PS). Logistic regression model with additive linear terms of covariates is most used technique in many studies. Logistics regression model is also used with cubic splines for retaining flexibility in the model. However, choosing the functional form of the logistic regression model has been a question since the effectiveness of PSM depends on how accurately the PS been estimated. In many situations, the linearity assumption of linear logistic regression may not hold and non-linear relation between the logit and the covariates may be appropriate. One can estimate PS using machine learning techniques such as random forest, neural network etc for more accuracy in non-linear situation. In this study, an attempt has been made to compare the efficacy of Generalized Additive Model (GAM) in various linear and non-linear settings and compare its performance with usual logistic regression. GAM is a non-parametric technique where functional form of the covariates can be unspecified and a flexible regression model can be fitted. In this study various simple and complex models have been considered for treatment under several situations (small/large sample, low/high number of treatment units) and examined which method leads to more covariate balance in the matched dataset. It is found that logistic regression model is impressively robust against inclusion quadratic and interaction terms and reduces mean difference in treatment and control set equally efficiently as GAM does. GAM provided no significantly better covariate balance than logistic regression in both simple and complex models. The analysis also suggests that larger proportion of controls than treatment units leads to better balance for both of the methods.

Keywords: accuracy, covariate balances, generalized additive model, logistic regression, non-linearity, propensity score matching

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Authors: Salim H. Al Salmani, Kevin Tansey, Mohammed S. Ozigis

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The study of the growth of built-up areas and settlement expansion is a major exercise that city managers seek to undertake to establish previous and current developmental trends. This is to ensure that there is an equal match of settlement expansion needs to the appropriate levels of services and infrastructure required. This research aims at demonstrating the potential of satellite image processing technique, harnessing the utility of single feature probability-object based image analysis technique in assessing the urban growth dynamics of the Muscat Governorate in Oman for the period 1990, 2002 and 2013. This need is fueled by the continuous expansion of the Muscat Governorate beyond predicted levels of infrastructural provision. Landsat Images of the years 1990, 2002 and 2013 were downloaded and preprocessed to forestall appropriate radiometric and geometric standards. A novel approach of probability filtering of the target feature segment was implemented to derive the spatial extent of the final Built-Up Area of the Muscat governorate for the three years period. This however proved to be a useful technique as high accuracy assessment results of 55%, 70%, and 71% were recorded for the Urban Landcover of 1990, 2002 and 2013 respectively. Furthermore, the Normalized Differential Built – Up Index for the various images were derived and used to consolidate the results of the SFP-OBIA through a linear regression model and visual comparison. The result obtained showed various hotspots where urbanization have sporadically taken place. Specifically, settlement in the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Amarat, Muscat, and Qurayyat experienced tremendous change between 1990 and 2002, while the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Seeb, Bawshar, and Muttrah experienced more sporadic changes between 2002 and 2013.

Keywords: urban growth, single feature probability, object based image analysis, landcover change

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Authors: Nayera E. Hassan, Salah Mostafa, Hamed Elkhayat, Kalled Hassan Sewidan, Sahar A. El-Masry, Manal Mouhamed Ali, Mones M. Abu Shady

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Pubertal growth is influenced by many factors including environmental and nutritional factors. Objective: To assess impact of nutritional status on pubertal staging, ovarian and uterine volumes among school girls. Method: Study was cross sectional and carried out on 1000 healthy school girls, aged 8-18 years selected randomly. They were categorized according to their ages into three groups: 8-12 years, 13-15 years and 16-18 years ±6 months, then according to their body mass index percentile to normal weight: (≥15-<85.), overweight (≥85-<95) and obese (≥95). All girls were subjected for physical, anthropometric (weight, height, body mass index), nutritional markers WAZ (weight/age Z score), HAZ (height/age Z score) and BMI-Z (body mass index Z score), pubertal assessment (Tanner stage) and pelvic transabdominal sonography (uterine and ovarian volumes). Results: Highly significant differences in ovarian and uterine volumes and nutritional markers (WAZ, HAZ and BMI-Z score) were detected among different grades of puberty in the two age groups (8-12 years, 13-15 years) coming in advance of obese girls (with increase of BMI); except HAZ in the second age group. Girls aged 16-18 years reached to final volume for the uterus and ovary with insignificant differences. Pubertal stage, ovarian and uterine sizes were highly significantly correlated with nutritional markers. Mean ages of onset: of puberty, menarche and complete puberty were, 11.65 + 1.84, 14.79 + 1.75 and 15.02 + 1.68 years respectively. Conclusion: Nutritional status has a crucial role in determining pubertal stage, ovarian and uterine volumes among Egyptian girls during the pubertal process.

Keywords: pubertal stage, nutritional markers, girls, ovarian and uterine volumes

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Kriti Singh, Saurabh Tripathi, Pankaj Chaudhary, Abid Ali Ansari, Seema Nigam

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Introduction: The introduction of android and iOS has changed our lives dramatically over the past few years. The new generation is more dependent on their mobile phones for carrying out their daily pursuits. Smartphones have revolutionized our lives. The cutdown in rates of mobile network services has been affecting us drastically. A new type of dependence is seen among the people for Smartphones. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the state of addiction among the group of medical students, along with its association with sleep hygiene and anxiety. Material and Method: Study included 50 individuals in the age group of 18-35 years. Smartphone Addiction Scale Short Version, Sleep Hygiene Index, and Perceived Stress Scales were used conducting the study. Results: Mean age of 22 years (12%). The majority of subjects were 20-year olds (15 out of 50), the majority were males with few females. Mean Smartphone addiction score 39 (very severe), Mean Sleep Hygiene Index score 26.76 (moderate maladaptive hygiene and Mean Perceived Stress score of 19.92 (moderate stress). Conclusion: In majority students were found to have a very severe Smartphone Addiction with moderate sleep hygiene and a moderate level of perceived stress. The Smartphone was being used was for surfing social media applications.

Keywords: addiction perceived stress, sleep hygiene index, smartphone

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish

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Recently, software quality issues have come to be seen as important subject as we see an enormous growth of agencies involved in software industries. However,these agencies cannot guarantee the quality of their products, thus leaving users in uncertainties. Software certification is the extension of quality by means that quality needs to be measured prior to certification granting process. This research participates in solving the problem of software assessment by proposing a model for assessment and certification of software product that uses a fuzzy inference engine to integrate both of process–driven and application-driven quality assurance strategies. The key idea of the on hand model is to improve the compactness and the interpretability of the model’s fuzzy rules via employing an ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO), which tries to find good rules description by dint of compound rules initially expressed with traditional single rules. The model has been tested by case study and the results have demonstrated feasibility and practicability of the model in a real environment.

Keywords: optimization technique, quality assurance, software certification model, software assessment

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: Sadaf Sahar, Usman Qamar, Sadaf Ayaz

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In the software development lifecycle, the quality prediction techniques hold a prime importance in order to minimize future design errors and expensive maintenance. There are many techniques proposed by various researchers, but with the increasing complexity of the software lifecycle model, it is crucial to develop a flexible system which can cater for the factors which in result have an impact on the quality of the end product. These factors include properties of the software development process and the product along with its operation conditions. In this paper, a neural network (perceptron) based software quality prediction technique is proposed. Using this technique, the stakeholders can predict the quality of the resulting software during the early phases of the lifecycle saving time and resources on future elimination of design errors and costly maintenance. This technique can be brought into practical use using successful training.

Keywords: software quality, fuzzy logic, perception, prediction

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Authors: Buse Bahitli, Samiye Mete

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The aim of the study was to evaluate the quality of sexual life of women with diagnosed gynecological cancer and receive treatment. The study was a descriptive and cross-sectional type, and it was carried out with 276 women. Information Form and Sexual Quality of Life Scale-Female (SQOL) form was used in the study. The data was evaluated using Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test. In the study, Sexual Quality of Life Scale-Female average score was 68.83 ± 21.17. The %43.1 of women was endometrial cancer, %30.8 was cervical cancer, %24.6 was ovarian cancer, and %1.4 was vulvar cancer. The average time to diagnosis of patients is 41.80 ± 47.64 months. There was no significant difference mean SQOL according to individual/sociodemographic characteristics like age, education. Gynecological cancer-related characteristics like gynaecological cancer type, treatment type, surgery type were found not to affect the mean score of SQOL. However, it was found that the difference was due to the higher SQOL score in the group with a diagnosis time of 25 months and over (X²KW= 6.356, p= 0.046). The reason of significant difference means SQOL according to diagnosis over time might be that women adapted to cancer diagnosis. While women with gynaecologic cancer are evaluating their sexual lives, it is necessary to evaluate them with good evaluation tools.

Keywords: gynecological cancers, sexuality, quality of sexual life, SQOL

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish

Abstract:

Recently, software quality issues have come to be seen as important subject as we see an enormous growth of agencies involved in software industries. However, these agencies cannot guarantee the quality of their products, thus leaving users in uncertainties. Software certification is the extension of quality by means that quality needs to be measured prior to certification granting process. This research participates in solving the problem of software assessment by proposing a model for assessment and certification of software product that uses a fuzzy inference engine to integrate both of process–driven and application-driven quality assurance strategies. The key idea of the on hand model is to improve the compactness and the interpretability of the model’s fuzzy rules via employing an ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO), which tries to find good rules description by dint of compound rules initially expressed with traditional single rules. The model has been tested by case study and the results have demonstrated feasibility and practicability of the model in a real environment.

Keywords: software quality, quality assurance, software certification model, software assessment

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Authors: Christoph Koester

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Supplier selection is one of the key issues in supply chain management with a growing emphasis on sustainability driven by increasing stakeholder expectations and proactivity. In addition, new regulations, such as the German Supply Chain Act, fostered the inclusion of sustainable incl. governance selection criteria in the selection process. In order to provide a systematic approach to select the most suitable sustainable suppliers, this study quantifies the importance and prioritizes the relevant selection criteria across 17 German industries using the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process. Results show that economic criteria are still the most important in the selection decision averaging a global weight of 51%. However, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria are combined, on average, almost equally important, with global weights of 22%, 16%, and 11%, respectively. While the type of industry influences criteria weights, other factors, such as type of purchasing or demographic factors, appear to have little impact.

Keywords: ESG, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, sustainable supplier selection, sustainability

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Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

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Authors: Naima Ikken, Abdelhadi Bouknadel, Nour-eddine Tariba Ahmed Haddou, Hafsa El Omari

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The operation of grid-connected inverters necessity a single-phase phase locked loop (PLL) is proposed in this article to accurately and quickly estimate and detect the grid phase angle. This article presents the improvement of a method of phase-locked loop. The novelty is to generate a method (PLL) of synchronizing the grid with a Notch filter based on adaptive fuzzy logic for inverter systems connected to the grid. The performance of the proposed method was tested under normal and abnormal operating conditions (amplitude, frequency and phase shift variations). In addition, simulation results with ISPM software are developed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method strategy. Finally, the experimental test will be used to extract the result and discuss the validity of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: phase locked loop, PLL, notch filter, fuzzy logic control, grid connected inverters

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Authors: Akulov M. A., Orlova O. R., Zaharov V. O., Tomskij A. A.

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Introduction: One of the common postoperative complications of posterior cranial fossa (PCF) and cerebello-pontine angle tumor treatment is a facial nerve palsy, which leads to multiple and resistant to treatment impairments of mimic muscles structure and functions. After 4-6 months after facial nerve palsy with insufficient therapeutic intervention patients develop a postparalythic syndrome, which includes such symptoms as mimic muscle insufficiency, mimic muscle contractures, synkinesis and spontaneous muscular twitching. A novel method of treatment is the use of a recent local neuromuscular blocking agent– botulinum toxin A (BTA). Experience of BTA treatment enables an assumption that it can be successfully used in late facial nerve palsy complications to significantly increase quality of life of patients. Study aim. To evaluate the efficacy of botulinum toxin A (BTA) (Xeomin) treatment in patients with late facial nerve palsy complications. Patients and Methods: 31 patients aged 27-59 years 6 months after facial nerve palsy development were evaluated. All patients received conventional treatment, including massage, movement therapy etc. Facial nerve palsy developed after acoustic nerve tumor resection in 23 (74,2%) patients, petroclival meningioma resection – in 8 (25,8%) patients. The first group included 17 (54,8%) patients, receiving BT-therapy; the second group – 14 (45,2%) patients continuing conventional treatment. BT-injections were performed in synkinesis or contracture points 1-2 U on injured site and 2-4 U on healthy side (for symmetry). Facial nerve function was evaluated on 2 and 4 months of therapy according to House-Brackman scale. Pain syndrome alleviation was assessed on VAS. Results: At baseline all patients in the first and second groups demonstrated аpostparalytic syndrome. We observed a significant improvement in patients receiving BTA after only one month of treatment. Mean VAS score at baseline was 80,4±18,7 and 77,9±18,2 in the first and second group, respectively. In the first group after one month of treatment we observed a significant decrease of pain syndrome – mean VAS score was 44,7±10,2 (р<0,01), whereas in the second group VAS score was as high as 61,8±9,4 points (p>0,05). By the 3d month of treatment pain syndrome intensity continued to decrease in both groups, but, the first group demonstrated significantly better results; mean score was 8,2±3,1 and 31,8±4,6 in the first and second group, respectively (р<0,01). Total House-Brackman score at baseline was 3,67±0,16 in the first group and 3,74±0,19 in the second group. Treatment resulted in a significant symptom improvement in the first group, with no improvement in the second group. After 4 months of treatment House-Brockman score in the first group was 3,1-fold lower, than in the second group (р<0,05). Conclusion: Botulinum toxin injections decrease postparalytic syndrome symptoms in patients with facial nerve palsy.

Keywords: botulinum toxin, facial nerve palsy, postparalytic syndrome, synkinesis

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Authors: Irfan Ali, Srikant Gupta, Aquil Ahmed

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Every country needs a sustainable development (SD) for its economic growth by forming suitable policies and initiative programs for the development of different sectors of the country. This paper is comprised of modeling and optimization of different sectors of India that form a multi-criterion model. In this paper, we developed a fractional goal programming (FGP) model that helps in providing the efficient allocation of resources simultaneously by achieving the sustainable goals in gross domestic product (GDP), electricity consumption (EC) and greenhouse gasses (GHG) emission by the year 2030. Also, a weighted model of FGP is presented to obtain varying solution according to the priorities set by the policy maker for achieving future goals of GDP growth, EC, and GHG emission. The presented models provide a useful insight to the decision makers for implementing strategies in a different sector.

Keywords: sustainable and economic development, multi-objective fractional programming, fuzzy goal programming, weighted fuzzy goal programming

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Authors: Kwei Huan Liw, Sashi B. Darshan

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Background: Double eyelid surgery has become one of the most sought-after aesthetic procedures among Asians. Many surgeons perform surgical blepharoplasty and various other methods of non-incisional blepharoplasty. Face-Q is a validated method of measuring patient satisfaction for facial aesthetic procedures. Here we have analyzed the overall eye satisfaction score, the upper eyelid appraisal score and the adverse effect on eyes score Methods: 274 patients (548 eyes), aged between 18 to 40 years old, were recruited from 2015-2018. Each patient underwent a non-incisional double-eyelid blepharoplasty using a single-knotted continuous buried suture. 3 – 5 stab incisions were made depending on the upper eyelid size. A needle loaded with 7-0 nylon is passed from the lateral most wound through the dermis and the conjunctiva in an alternate fashion into the remaining stab wounds. The suture is then tunneled back laterally in the deeper dermis and knotted securely with the suture end. The knot is then buried within the orbicularis oculi muscle. Each patient was required to fill the Face-Q questionnaire before the procedure and 2 weeks post procedure. The results are described based on the percentage of the maximum achievable score. Patients were reviewed after 12 to 18 months to assess the long-term outcome. Results: The overall eye satisfaction score demonstrated a high level of post-operative satisfaction (97.85%), compared to 27.32% pre-operatively. The appraisal of upper eyelid scores showed drastic improvement in perception post-operatively (95.31%) compared to 21.44% pre-operatively. Adverse effect on eyes score showed a very low post-operative complication rate (0.4%) The long-term follow-up showed 6 cases that had developed asymmetrical folds. Only 1 patient agreed for revision surgery. The other 5 patients were still satisfied with the outcome and were not keen for revision surgery. None of the cases had loosening of knots. Conclusion: Modified single-knot continuous buried suture technique is a simple and non-invasive method to create aesthetically pleasing non-surgical double-eyelids, which has long-term effects. Proper patient selection is crucial and good surgical technique is required to achieve a desirable outcome.

Keywords: blepharoplasty, double-eyelid, face-Q, non-incisional

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Authors: Adisai Thovicha

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This study is the survey research, designed to study the work happiness level of personnel at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The sample group consisted of 329 personnel. The results were collected by stratified sampling, using work positions for each stage. The results were analyzed and calculated by computer program. Statistics used during analyzing were percentage, mean, and standard deviation. From the study, the work happiness level of personnel were in very high score range in both overall and specific category. The top category which received the most score was positive attitude, work satisfaction, life satisfaction, and negative attitude.

Keywords: work happiness, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, personnel, positive attitude

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Authors: N. Tadrisi Parsa, A. R. Vali, R. Ghasemi

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Diabetes is a growing health problem in worldwide. Especially, the patients with Type 1 diabetes need strict glycemic control because they have deficiency of insulin production. This paper attempts to control blood glucose based on body mathematical body model. The Bergman minimal mathematical model is used to develop the nonlinear controller. A novel back-stepping based sliding mode control (B-SMC) strategy is proposed as a solution that guarantees practical tracking of a desired glucose concentration. In order to show the performance of the proposed design, it is compared with conventional linear and fuzzy controllers which have been done in previous researches. The numerical simulation result shows the advantages of sliding mode back stepping controller design to linear and fuzzy controllers.

Keywords: bergman model, nonlinear control, back stepping, sliding mode control

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Authors: Petar Dobrev

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There is no agreed-upon definition of firm quality. While profitability and stock performance often qualify as popular proxies of quality, in this project, we aim to identify quality without relying on a firm’s financial statements or stock returns as selection criteria. Instead, we use firm-level data on management practices across small to medium-sized U.S. manufacturing firms from the World Management Survey (WMS) to measure firm quality. Each firm in the WMS dataset is assigned a mean management score from 0 to 5, with higher scores identifying better-managed firms. This management score serves as our proxy for firm quality and is the sole criteria we use to separate firms into portfolios comprised of high-quality and low-quality firms. We define high-quality (low-quality) firms as those firms with a management score of one standard deviation above (below) the mean. To study whether this proxy for firm quality can identify better-performing firms, we link this data to Compustat and The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) to obtain firm-level data on financial performance and monthly stock returns, respectively. We find that from 1999 to 2019 (our sample data period), firms in the high-quality portfolio are consistently more profitable — higher operating profitability and return on equity compared to low-quality firms. In addition, high-quality firms also exhibit a lower risk of bankruptcy — a higher Altman Z-score. Next, we test whether the stocks of the firms in the high-quality portfolio earn superior risk-adjusted excess returns. We regress the monthly excess returns on each portfolio on the Fama-French 3-factor, 4-factor, and 5-factor models, the betting-against-beta factor, and the quality-minus-junk factor. We find no statistically significant differences in excess returns between both portfolios, suggesting that stocks of high-quality (well managed) firms do not earn superior risk-adjusted returns compared to low-quality (poorly managed) firms. In short, our proxy for firm quality, the WMS management score, can identify firms with superior financial performance (higher profitability and reduced risk of bankruptcy). However, our management proxy cannot identify stocks that earn superior risk-adjusted returns, suggesting no statistically significant relationship between managerial quality and stock performance.

Keywords: excess stock returns, management, profitability, quality

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Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul

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We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.

Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator

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Authors: S. H. Atef, N. H. Mahmoud, S. Abdrahman, A. Fattoh

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Background: The aim of the study is to assess the diagnostic value of fibrotest and hyaluronic acid in discriminate between insignificant and significant fibrosis. Also, to find out if these parameters could replace liver biopsy which is currently used for selection of chronic hepatitis C patients eligible for antiviral therapy. Study design: This study was conducted on 52 patients with HCV RNA detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) who had undergone liver biopsy and attending the internal medicine clinic at Ain Shams University Hospital. Liver fibrosis was evaluated according to the METAVIR scoring system on a scale of F0 to F4. Biochemical markers assessed were: alpha-2 macroglobulin (α2-MG), apolipoprotein A1 (Apo-A1), haptoglobin, gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), total bilirubin (TB) and hyaluronic acid (HA). The fibrotest score was computed after adjusting for age and gender. Predictive values and ROC curves were used to assess the accuracy of fibrotest and HA results. Results: For fibrotest, the observed area under curve for the discrimination between minimal or no fibrosis (F0-F1) and significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was 0.6736 for cutoff value 0.19 with sensitivity of 84.2% and specificity of 85.7%. For HA, the sensitivity was 89.5% and specificity was 85.7% and area under curve was 0.540 at the best cutoff value 71 mg/dL. Multi-use of both parameters, HA at 71 mg/dL with fibrotest score at 0.22 give a sensitivity 89.5%, specificity 100 and efficacy 92.3% (AUC 0.895). Conclusion: The use of both fibrotest score and HA could be as alternative to biopsy in most patients with chronic hepaitis C putting in consideration some limitations of the proposed markers in evaluating liver fibrosis.

Keywords: fibrotest, liver fibrosis, HCV RNA, biochemical markers

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Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

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In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

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Authors: S. Öcal, A. Erakgün, E. Yüksel, M. N. Deniz, E. Erhan, A. Çertuğ

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Background: Emergence agitation (EA) is defined as a dissociated state of consciousness during the early post-anesthesia period in which the child is inconsolable, irritable, uncompromising or uncooperative, typically thrashing, crying, moaning, or incoherent, and not recognizing or identifying familiar and known objects or people. Some studies found preoperative parental anxiety to be a predictor of EA. Methods: Seventy-four children, between the ages of 3-12 undergoing adenoidectomy/tonsillectomy at Ege University Hospital, were studied. Anesthesia was induced and maintained using 2% sevoflurane in 50% oxygen and 50% air following a premedicative dose of 0.5mg/kg oral midazolam. After the children were taken into the operating theater, the mothers were given the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) questionnaire. To evaluate EA, Post Anesthetic Emergence Delirium (PAED) score of the children were noted every 10min during the first 30min of the postoperative period. EA was defined with a highest PAED score of ≥ 10, and non-EA with a highest PAED score of ≤ 9. Results: In this study, the incidence of postoperative EA was 31% (34% under the age of 6 and 19% over). Mothers of children with EA were found not to be significantly more anxious on STAI compared to mothers of non-EA children. Conclusions: Contrary to some earlier studies, we were unable to find an association between preoperative parental anxiety and postoperative EA.

Keywords: parental anxiety, emergence agittion, Post Anesthetic Emergence Delirium, anesthesia

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Authors: Tania Mannan, Rahelee Zinnat, Fatema Jebunnesa, Israt Ara Hossain

Abstract:

Background: Exposure to arsenic has known toxic effects but the effect on pregnancy outcomes is not as widely documented especially in women with diabetes. Growing evidence has suggested a potential role of arsenic exposure in the development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association of urinary arsenic (UAs) with birth outcomes in GDM subjects. Methods: Under an observational cross-sectional design a total of 263 GDM subjects (age in years, M±SD, 21±3.7) residing in an arsenic affected area of Bangladesh, were subjected to a 2 sample OGTT at the third trimester of gestation. Among them, 73 GDM and 190 non-GDM subjects enrolled in this study. Clinical and anthropometric measurements were done by standard techniques. Degree of chronic arsenic exposure was assessed by the level of UAs level. According to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, GDM was diagnosed and neonatal outcomes using APGAR (Activity Pulse Grimace Appearance Respirations) Score, birth weight and size were assessed by a specialist obstetrician. Serum glucose was measured by the Glucose Oxidase method and UAs level was determined by ultraviolet/visible spectrophotometry. Result: Out of the 263 pregnant women, 28% developed GDM. Urinary Arsenic was significantly higher in the GDM as compared to the non-GDM group [UAs, µg/l, M±SD (range), 204.2±67.0 (67.0-377.0) vs 77.3±38.1 (22.0-99.0), p < 0.001]. Activity Pulse Grimace Appearance Respirations Score of the neonates from GDM mothers was significantly lower compared to the neonates from non-GDM mothers [APGAR Score, M±SD, 4.7±0.8 vs. 6.4±0.7, p<0.001]. Pearson’s correlation analysis in GDM subjects revealed that UA levels were found to have a significant positive correlation with both fasting and postprandial serum glucose levels (p < 0.001) and (p < 0.001) respectively. Again, a significant inverse correlation of UAs with birth weight and size was observed (p < 0.001). The APGAR Score of the neonates were found to have a significant negative correlation (p < 0.001) with UAs level. Conclusion: The effect of chronic arsenic exposure is associated with glucose intolerance during pregnancy and it also adversely affects birth outcomes. The study suggests further research on the impact of total arsenic exposure on pregnancy outcomes.

Keywords: APGAR score, arsenic exposure, birth outcome, gestational diabetes mellitus,

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Authors: Raghad Alhusari, Farag Omar, Moustafa Fadel

Abstract:

A traditional greenhouse is a metal frame agricultural building used for cultivation plants in a controlled environment isolated from external climatic changes. Using greenhouses in agriculture is an efficient way to reduce the water consumption, where agriculture field is considered the biggest water consumer world widely. Controlling greenhouse environment yields better productivity of plants but demands an increase of electric power. Although various control approaches have been used towards greenhouse automation, most of them are applied to traditional greenhouses with ventilation fans and/or evaporation cooling system. Such approaches are still demanding high energy and water consumption. The aim of this research is to develop a fuzzy control system that minimizes water and energy consumption by utilizing outside weather conditions and underground heat exchanger to maintain the optimum climate of the greenhouse. The proposed control system is implemented on an experimental model of thermally isolated greenhouse structure with dimensions of 6x5x2.8 meters. It uses fans for extracting heat from the ground heat exchanger system, motors for automatic open/close of the greenhouse windows and LED as lighting system. The controller is integrated also with environmental condition sensors. It was found that using the air-to-air horizontal ground heat exchanger with 90 mm diameter and 2 mm thickness placed 2.5 m below the ground surface results in decreasing the greenhouse temperature of 3.28 ˚C which saves around 3 kW of consumed energy. It also eliminated the water consumption needed in evaporation cooling systems which are traditionally used for cooling the greenhouse environment.

Keywords: automation, earth-to-air heat exchangers, fuzzy control, greenhouse, sustainable buildings

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Authors: Arash Sadeghi, Taimaz Larimian

Abstract:

This study explores the intricate interplay between community-based social capital (CBSC) and neighbourhood dynamics in enhancing resilience of Iranian SMEs, particularly under the strain of international sanctions. Utilising fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), we examine how different dimensions of CBSC—structural, relational, and cognitive—interact with neighbourhood socio-economic and built-environment characteristics to influence SME resilience. Findings reveal four configurations that contribute to the presence of resistance and five configurations associated with the adaptation outcome. Each configuration demonstrates a distinct combination of social capital elements, which vary according to the specific socio-economic and built-environmental characteristics of the neighbourhoods. The first configuration highlights the importance of structural social capital in deprived areas for building resistance, while the second emphasises the role of relational social capital in low-density, minimally deprived areas. Overall, cognitive social capital seems to be less effective in driving economic resilience compared to structural and relational types. This research contributes to the literature by providing a nuanced understanding of the synergistic effects of CBSC dimensions and neighbourhood characteristics on SME resilience. By adopting a configurational approach, we move beyond traditional methodologies, offering a comprehensive view of the complex dynamics of CBSC and neighbourhood characteristics and their impact on SME resilience in varying neighbourhoods.

Keywords: community-based social capital, fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), place-based resilience, resistance

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Authors: Kessal Abdelhalim, Zebiri Fouad, Rahmani Lazhar

Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis by which the dynamic performances of a permanent magnet brushless DC (PMBLDC) motor is controlled through a hysteresis current loop and an outer speed loop with different controllers. The dynamics of the photovoltaic pumping drive system with sliding mode speed controllers are presented. The proposed structure is constituted of photovoltaic generator associated to DC-DC converter controlled by fuzzy logic to ensure the maximum power point tracking. The PWM signals are generated by the interaction of the motor speed closed-loop system and the current hysteresis. The motor reference current is compared with the motor speed feedback signal. The considered model has been implemented in Matlab/Simpower environment. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed method to increase the performance of the water pumping system.

Keywords: photovoltaic, permanent magnet brushless DC (PMBLDC) motor, MPPT, speed control, fuzzy, sliding mode

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Authors: A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, N. Y. Lysov, A. V. Orlov, D. S. Zhuravkova

Abstract:

Hypothesis of the lightning initiation on the arrays of large hydrometeors are in the consideration. There is no agreement about the form the hydrometeors that could be the best for the lightning initiation from the thundercloud. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the positive or negative polarity could help investigate the possible influence of the hydrometeor form on the peculiarities and the probability of the lightning discharge initiation between the thundercloud and the ground. Artificial charged aerosol clouds that could create the electric field strength in the range of 5-6 kV/cm to 16-18 kV/cm have been used in experiments. The array of the model hydrometeors of the volume and plate form has been disposed near the bottom cloud boundary. It was established that the different kinds of the discharge could be initiated in the presence of the model hydrometeors array – from the cloud discharges up to the diffuse and channel discharges between the charged cloud and the ground. It was found that the form of the model hydrometeors could significantly influence the channel discharge initiation from the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the negative or positive polarity correspondingly. Analysis and generalization of the experimental results have shown that the maximal probability of the channel discharge initiation and propagation stimulation has been observed for the artificial charged cloud of the positive polarity when the arrays of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form have been used. At the same time, for the artificial charged clouds of the negative polarity, application of the model hydrometeor array of the plate rhombus form has provided the maximal probability of the channel discharge formation between the charged cloud and the ground. The established influence of the form of the model hydrometeors on the channel discharge initiation and from the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and its following successful propagation has been related with the different character of the positive and negative streamer and volume leader development on the model hydrometeors array being near the bottom boundary of the charged cloud. The received experimental results have shown the possibly important role of the form of the large hail particles precipitated in thundercloud on the discharge initiation.

Keywords: cloud and channel discharges, hydrometeor form, lightning initiation, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud

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