Search results for: variational Bayesian approximation

Authors: S. Boria

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In the last years, the crashworthiness of an automotive body structure can be improved, since the beginning of the design stage, thanks to the development of specific optimization tools. It is well known how the finite element codes can help the designer to investigate the crashing performance of structures under dynamic impact. Therefore, by coupling nonlinear mathematical programming procedure and statistical techniques with FE simulations, it is possible to optimize the design with reduced number of analytical evaluations. In engineering applications, many optimization methods which are based on statistical techniques and utilize estimated models, called meta-models, are quickly spreading. A meta-model is an approximation of a detailed simulation model based on a dataset of input, identified by the design of experiments (DOE); the number of simulations needed to build it depends on the number of variables. Among the various types of meta-modeling techniques, Kriging method seems to be excellent in accuracy, robustness and efficiency compared to other ones when applied to crashworthiness optimization. Therefore the application of such meta-model was used in this work, in order to improve the structural optimization of a bumper for a racing car in composite material subjected to frontal impact. The specific energy absorption represents the objective function to maximize and the geometrical parameters subjected to some design constraints are the design variables. LS-DYNA codes were interfaced with LS-OPT tool in order to find the optimized solution, through the use of a domain reduction strategy. With the use of the Kriging meta-model the crashworthiness characteristic of the composite bumper was improved.

Keywords: composite material, crashworthiness, finite element analysis, optimization

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Authors: Ishani D. Goonasekara, Erio Camporesi, Timur Bulgakov, Rungtiwa Phookamsak, Kevin D. Hyde

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Phaeosphaeriaceae comprises a large number of species occurring mainly on grasses and cereal crops as endophytes, saprobes and especially pathogens. Parastagonospora is an important genus in Phaeosphaeriaceae that includes pathogens causing leaf and glume blotch on cereal crops. Currently, there are fifteen Parastagonospora species described, including both pathogens and saprobes. In this study, one sexual morph species and an asexual morph species, occurring as saprobes on members of Poaceae are introduced based on morphology and a combined molecular analysis of the LSU, SSU, ITS, and RPB2 gene sequence data. The sexual morph species Parastagonospora elymi was isolated from a Russian sample of Elymus repens, a grass commonly known as couch grass, and important for grazing animals, as a weed and used in traditional Austrian medicine. P. elymi is similar to the sexual morph of P. avenae in having cylindrical asci, bearing 8, overlapping biseriate, fusiform ascospores but can be distinguished by its subglobose to conical shaped, wider ascomata. In addition, no sheath was observed surrounding the ascospores. The asexual morph species was isolated from a specimen from Italy, on Dactylis glomerata, a commonly found grass distributed in temperate regions. It is introduced as Parastagonospora macrouniseptata, a coelomycete, and bears a close resemblance to P. allouniseptata and P. uniseptata in having globose to subglobose, pycnidial conidiomata and hyaline, cylindrical, 1-septate conidia. However, the new species could be distinguished in having much larger conidiomata. In the phylogenetic analysis which consisted of a maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis P. elymi showed low bootstrap support, but well segregated from other strains within the Parastagonospora clade. P. neoallouniseptata formed a sister clade with P. allouniseptata with high statistical support.

Keywords: dothideomycetes, multi-gene analysis, Poaceae, saprobes, taxonomy

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Authors: Wendy Flory, Kazi Czarnecki, Matthijs Mercy, Mark Joswiak, Mary Beth Seasholtz

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Polyurethane Materials are present in a wide range of industrial segments such as Furniture, Building and Construction, Composites, Automotive, Electronics, and more. Dow is one of the leaders for the manufacture of the two main raw materials, Isocyanates and Polyols used to produce polyurethane products. Dow is also a key player for the manufacture of Polyurethane Systems/Formulations designed for targeted applications. In 1990, the first analytical chemometric models were developed and deployed for use in the Dow QC labs of the polyols business for the quantification of OH, water, cloud point, and viscosity. Over the years many models have been added; there are now over 140 models for quantification and hundreds for product identification, too many to be reasonable for support. There are 29 global models alone for the quantification of OH across > 70 products at many sites. An attempt was made to consolidate these into a single model. While the consolidated model proved good statistics across the entire range of OH, several products had a bias by ASTM E1655 with individual product validation. This project summary will show the strategy for global model updates for OH, to reduce the number of models for quantification from over 140 to 5 or less using chemometric methods. In order to gain an understanding of the best product groupings, we identify clusters by reducing spectra to a few dimensions via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP). Results from these cluster analyses and a separate validation set allowed dow to reduce the number of models for predicting OH from 29 to 3 without loss of accuracy.

Keywords: hydroxyl, global model, model maintenance, near infrared, polyol

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Jéssica Ferreira Rodrigues, Júlio Silvio De Sousa Bueno Filho, Vanessa Rios De Souza, Ana Carla Marques Pinheiro

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This study aimed to evaluate the implications of the block size and testing order on efficiency and precision of preference estimation for Dulce de leche samples. Efficiency was defined as the inverse of the average variance of pairwise comparisons among treatments. Precision was defined as the inverse of the variance of treatment means (or effects) estimates. The experiment was originally designed to test 16 treatments as a series of 8 Sudoku 16x16 designs being 4 randomized independently and 4 others in the reverse order, to yield balance in testing order. Linear mixed models were assigned to the whole experiment with 112 testers and all their grades, as well as their partially balanced subgroups, namely: a) experiment with the four initial EU; b) experiment with EU 5 to 8; c) experiment with EU 9 to 12; and b) experiment with EU 13 to 16. To record responses we used a nine-point hedonic scale, it was assumed a mixed linear model analysis with random tester and treatments effects and with fixed test order effect. Analysis of a cumulative random effects probit link model was very similar, with essentially no different conclusions and for simplicity, we present the results using Gaussian assumption. R-CRAN library lme4 and its function lmer (Fit Linear Mixed-Effects Models) was used for the mixed models and libraries Bayesthresh (default Gaussian threshold function) and ordinal with the function clmm (Cumulative Link Mixed Model) was used to check Bayesian analysis of threshold models and cumulative link probit models. It was noted that the number of samples tested in the same session can influence the acceptance level, underestimating the acceptance. However, proving a large number of samples can help to improve the samples discrimination.

Keywords: acceptance, block size, mixed linear model, testing order, testing order

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Authors: Baladitya Swaika, Rahul Khatry

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Computer Adaptive Tests (CATs) is one of the most efficient ways for testing the cognitive abilities of students. CATs are based on Item Response Theory (IRT) which is based on item selection and ability estimation using statistical methods of maximum information selection/selection from posterior and maximum-likelihood (ML)/maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators respectively. This study aims at combining both classical and Bayesian approaches to IRT to create a dataset which is then fed to a neural network which automates the process of ability estimation and then comparing it to traditional CAT models designed using IRT. This study uses python as the base coding language, pymc for statistical modelling of the IRT and scikit-learn for neural network implementations. On creation of the model and on comparison, it is found that the Neural Network based model performs 7-10% worse than the IRT model for score estimations. Although performing poorly, compared to the IRT model, the neural network model can be beneficially used in back-ends for reducing time complexity as the IRT model would have to re-calculate the ability every-time it gets a request whereas the prediction from a neural network could be done in a single step for an existing trained Regressor. This study also proposes a new kind of framework whereby the neural network model could be used to incorporate feature sets, other than the normal IRT feature set and use a neural network’s capacity of learning unknown functions to give rise to better CAT models. Categorical features like test type, etc. could be learnt and incorporated in IRT functions with the help of techniques like logistic regression and can be used to learn functions and expressed as models which may not be trivial to be expressed via equations. This kind of a framework, when implemented would be highly advantageous in psychometrics and cognitive assessments. This study gives a brief overview as to how neural networks can be used in adaptive testing, not only by reducing time-complexity but also by being able to incorporate newer and better datasets which would eventually lead to higher quality testing.

Keywords: computer adaptive tests, item response theory, machine learning, neural networks

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Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

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From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

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Authors: Lamia Bourdache, Amar Djema

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The effect of non-Newtonian property (power law index n) on traveling waves of thin layer of power law fluid flowing over an inclined plane is investigated. For this, a simplified second-order two-equation model (SM) is used. The complete model is second-order four-equation (CM). It is derived by combining the weighted residual integral method and the lubrication theory. This is due to the fact that at the beginning of the instability waves, a very small number of waves is observed. Using a suitable set of test functions, second order terms are eliminated from the calculus so that the model is still accurate to the second order approximation. Linear, spatial, and temporal stabilities are studied. For travelling waves, a particular type of wave form that is steady in a moving frame, i.e., that travels at a constant celerity without changing its shape is studied. This type of solutions which are characterized by their celerity exists under suitable conditions, when the widening due to dispersion is balanced exactly by the narrowing effect due to the nonlinearity. Changing the parameter of celerity in some range allows exploring the entire spectrum of asymptotic behavior of these traveling waves. The (SM) model is converted into a three dimensional dynamical system. The result is that the model exhibits bifurcation scenarios such as heteroclinic, homoclinic, Hopf, and period-doubling bifurcations for different values of the power law index n. The influence of the non-Newtonian parameter on the nonlinear development of these travelling waves is discussed. It is found at the end that the qualitative characters of bifurcation scenarios are insensitive to the variation of the power law index.

Keywords: inclined plane, nonlinear stability, non-Newtonian, thin film

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Authors: Aishi Kundu, Elhan Raza

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"Necessity is the mother of invention" - Rapid increase in the global human population has directed the agricultural domain toward machine learning. The basic need of human beings is considered to be food which can be satisfied through farming. Farming is one of the major revenue generators for the Indian economy. Agriculture is not only considered a source of employment but also fulfils humans’ basic needs. So, agriculture is considered to be the source of employment and a pillar of the economy in developing countries like India. This paper provides a brief review of the progress made in implementing Machine Learning in the agricultural sector. Accurate predictions are necessary at the right time to boost production and to aid the timely and systematic distribution of agricultural commodities to make their availability in the market faster and more effective. This paper includes a thorough analysis of various machine learning algorithms applied in different aspects of agriculture (crop management, soil management, water management, yield tracking, livestock management, etc.).Due to climate changes, crop production is affected. Machine learning can analyse the changing patterns and come up with a suitable approach to minimize loss and maximize yield. Machine Learning algorithms/ models (regression, support vector machines, bayesian models, artificial neural networks, decision trees, etc.) are used in smart agriculture to analyze and predict specific outcomes which can be vital in increasing the productivity of the Agricultural Food Industry. It is to demonstrate vividly agricultural works under machine learning to sensor data. Machine Learning is the ongoing technology benefitting farmers to improve gains in agriculture and minimize losses. This paper discusses how the irrigation and farming management systems evolve in real-time efficiently. Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled programs to emerge with rich apprehension for the support of farmers with an immense examination of data.

Keywords: machine Learning, artificial intelligence, crop management, precision farming, smart farming, pre-harvesting, harvesting, post-harvesting

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Authors: Othmane Zarhali, Cécilia Aubrun, Emmanuel Bacry, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Jean-François Muzy

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The Nested factor model was introduced by Bouchaud and al., where the asset return fluctuations are explained by common factors representing the market economic sectors and residuals (noises) sharing with the factors a common dominant volatility mode in addition to the idiosyncratic mode proper to each residual. This construction infers that the factors-residuals log volatilities are correlated. Here, we consider the case of a single factor where the only dominant common mode is a S-fbm process (introduced by Peng, Bacry and Muzy) with Hurst exponent H around 0.11 and the residuals having in addition to the previous common mode idiosyncratic components with Hurst exponents H around 0. The reason for considering this configuration is twofold: preserve the Nested factor model’s characteristics introduced by Bouchaud and al. and propose a framework through which the stylized fact reported by Peng and al. is reproduced, where it has been observed that the Hurst exponents of stock indices are large as compared to those of individual stocks. In this work, we show that the Log S-fbm Nested factor model’s construction leads to a Hurst exponent of single stocks being the ones of the idiosyncratic volatility modes and the Hurst exponent of the index being the one of the common volatility modes. Furthermore, we propose a statistical procedure to estimate the Hurst factor exponent from the stock returns dynamics together with theoretical guarantees, with good results in the limit where the number of stocks N goes to infinity. Last but not least, we show that the factor can be seen as an index constructed from the single stocks weighted by specific coefficients.

Keywords: hurst exponent, log S-fbm model, nested factor model, small intermittency approximation

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Authors: John Joseph S. Martis, Rohanchandra R. Gatty, Aaron Jose Fernandes, Rahul P. Nambiar

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Introduction: Surgery for breast cancer is either mastectomy or breast conservation surgery. The most commonly used incision for modified radical mastectomy is the transverse Stewart incision. But this incision may have the disadvantage of causing disparity between the closure lines of superior and inferior skin flaps in mastectomy and can cause overhanging of soft tissue below and behind the axilla. The curvizigzag incision, on principle, may help in this regard and can prevent scar migration beyond the anterior axillary line. This study aims to compare the two incisions in this regard. Methods: 100 patients with cancer of breast were included in the study after satisfying inclusion and exclusion criteria. They underwent surgery at Father Muller Medical College, Mangalore, India, between November 2019 to September 2021. The patients were divided into two groups. Group A patients were subjected to modified radical mastectomy with curvizigzag incision and group B patients with transverse Stewart incision. Results: Seroma on postoperative day1, day 2 was 0% in both the groups. Seroma on postoperative day 30 was present in 14% of patients in group B. 60% of patients in group B had sag of soft tissue below and behind the axilla, and none of the patients in group A had this problem. In 64% of the patients in group B, the incision crossed the anterior axillary fold, 64% of the patients in group B had tension in the incision site while approximation of the skin flaps. Conclusion: Curvizigzag incision is statistically better with lesser complications when compared to the transverse Stewart incision for modified radical mastectomy for carcinoma breast.

Keywords: breast cancer, curvizigzag incision, transverse Stewart incision, seroma, modified radical mastectomy

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Authors: L. Guevara, Glória L. S., Corea E. E, A. Ramírez-Zamora M., Salinas-Martinez J. A., Angeles-Hernandez J. C.

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Mathematical models are useful for identifying the characteristics of sheep lactation curves to develop and implement improved strategies. However, the accuracy of these models is influenced by factors such as the recording regime, mainly the intervals between test day records (TDR). The current study aimed to evaluate the effect of different TDR intervals on the goodness of fit of the Wood model (WM) applied to dairy sheep lactations. A total of 4,494 weekly TDRs from 156 lactations of dairy crossbred sheep were analyzed. Three new databases were generated from the original weekly TDR data (7D), comprising intervals of 14(14D), 21(21D), and 28(28D) days. The parameters of WM were estimated using the “minpack.lm” package in the R software. The shape of the lactation curve (typical and atypical) was defined based on the WM parameters. The goodness of fit was evaluated using the mean square of prediction error (MSPE), Root of MSPE (RMSPE), Akaike´s Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian´s Information Criterion (BIC), and the coefficient of correlation (r) between the actual and estimated total milk yield (TMY). WM showed an adequate estimate of TMY regardless of the TDR interval (P=0.21) and shape of the lactation curve (P=0.42). However, we found higher values of r for typical curves compared to atypical curves (0.9vs.0.74), with the highest values for the 28D interval (r=0.95). In the same way, we observed an overestimated peak yield (0.92vs.6.6 l) and underestimated time of peak yield (21.5vs.1.46) in atypical curves. The best values of RMSPE were observed for the 28D interval in both lactation curve shapes. The significant lowest values of AIC (P=0.001) and BIC (P=0.001) were shown by the 7D interval for typical and atypical curves. These results represent the first approach to define the adequate interval to record the regime of dairy sheep in Latin America and showed a better fitting for the Wood model using a 7D interval. However, it is possible to obtain good estimates of TMY using a 28D interval, which reduces the sampling frequency and would save additional costs to dairy sheep producers.

Keywords: gamma incomplete, ewes, shape curves, modeling

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Authors: Zaid Jamal Saeed Almahmoud

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Our increasing reliance on electricity, with inefficient consumption trends, has resulted in several economical and environmental threats. These threats include wasting billions of dollars, draining limited resources, and elevating the impact of climate change. As a solution, the smart grid is emerging as the future power grid, with smart techniques to optimize power consumption and electricity generation. Minimizing the peak power consumption under a fixed delay requirement is a significant problem in the smart grid. In addition, matching demand to supply is a key requirement for the success of the future electricity. In this work, we consider the problem of minimizing the peak demand under appliances constraints by scheduling power jobs with uniform release dates and deadlines. As the problem is known to be NP-Hard, we propose two versions of a heuristic algorithm for solving this problem. Our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that our proposed heuristics outperform existing methods by providing a better approximation to the optimal solution. In addition, we consider dynamic pricing methods to minimize the peak load and match demand to supply in the smart grid. Our contribution is the proposal of generic, as well as customized pricing heuristics to minimize the peak demand and match demand with supply. In addition, we propose optimal pricing algorithms that can be used when the maximum deadline period of the power jobs is relatively small. Finally, we provide theoretical analysis and conduct several experiments to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms.

Keywords: heuristics, optimization, smart grid, peak demand, power supply

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Authors: T. S. Almutairi, Paul May, Neil Allan

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The geometrical, electronic and magnetic properties of the neutral Mg center and MgN₃ cluster in diamond have been studied theoretically in detail by means of an HSE06 Hamiltonian that includes a fraction of the exact exchange term; this is important for a satisfactory picture of the electronic states of open-shell systems. Another batch of the calculations by GGA functionals have also been included for comparison, and these support the results from HSE06. The local perturbations in the lattice by introduced Mg defect are restricted in the first and second shell of atoms before eliminated. The formation energy calculated with HSE06 and GGA of single Mg agrees with the previous result. We found the triplet state with C₃ᵥ is the ground state of Mg center with energy lower than the singlet with C₂ᵥ by ~ 0.1 eV. The recent experimental ZPL (557.4 nm) of Mg center in diamond has been discussed in the view of present work. The analysis of the band-structure of the MgN₃ cluster confirms that the MgN₃ defect introduces a shallow donor level in the gap lying within the conduction band edge. This observation is supported by the EMM that produces n-type levels shallower than the P donor level. The formation energy of MgN₂ calculated from a 2NV defect (~ 3.6 eV) is a promising value from which to engineer MgN₃ defects inside the diamond. Ion-implantation followed by heating to about 1200-1600°C might induce migration of N related defects to the localized Mg center. Temperature control is needed for this process to restore the damage and ensure the mobilities of V and N, which demands a more precise experimental study.

Keywords: empirical marker method, generalised gradient approximation, Heyd–Scuseria–Ernzerhof screened hybrid functional, zero phono line

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Authors: Md. S. Ansari, S. S. Motsa

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In this paper, an analysis has been made on the flow of non-Newtonian viscoelastic nanofluid over a linearly stretching sheet under the influence of uniform magnetic field. Heat transfer characteristics is analyzed taking into the effect of nonlinear radiation and non-uniform heat source/sink. Transport equations contain the simultaneous effects of Brownian motion and thermophoretic diffusion of nanoparticles. The relevant partial differential equations are non-dimensionalized and transformed into ordinary differential equations by using appropriate similarity transformations. The transformed, highly nonlinear, ordinary differential equations are solved by spectral local linearisation method. The numerical convergence, error and stability analysis of iteration schemes are presented. The effects of different controlling parameters, namely, radiation, space and temperature-dependent heat source/sink, Brownian motion, thermophoresis, viscoelastic, Lewis number and the magnetic force parameter on the flow field, heat transfer characteristics and nanoparticles concentration are examined. The present investigation has many industrial and engineering applications in the fields of coatings and suspensions, cooling of metallic plates, oils and grease, paper production, coal water or coal–oil slurries, heat exchangers’ technology, and materials’ processing and exploiting.

Keywords: magnetic field, nonlinear radiation, non-uniform heat source/sink, similar solution, spectral local linearisation method, Rosseland diffusion approximation

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Authors: Sergey A. Lurie, Yury O. Solyaev, Dmitry B. Volkov-Bogorodsky, Alexander V. Volkov

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The media with voids is considered and the method of the analytical estimation of the effective mechanical properties in the theory of elastic materials with voids is proposed. The variational model of the porous media is discussed, which is based on the model of the media with fields of conserved dislocations. It is shown that this model is fully consistent with the known model of the linear elastic materials with voids. In the present work, the generalized model of the porous media is proposed in which the specific surface properties are associated with the field of defects-pores in the volume of the deformed body. Unlike typical surface elasticity model, the strain energy density of the considered model includes the special part of the surface energy with the quadratic form of the free distortion tensor. In the result, the non-classical boundary conditions take modified form of the balance equations of volume and surface stresses. The analytical approach is proposed in the present work which allows to receive the simple enough engineering estimations for effective characteristics of the media with free dilatation. In particular, the effective flexural modulus and Poisson's ratio are determined for the problem of a beam pure bending. Here, the known voids elasticity solution was expanded on the generalized model with the surface effects. Received results allow us to compare the deformed state of the porous beam with the equivalent classic beam to introduce effective bending rigidity. Obtained analytical expressions for the effective properties depend on the thickness of the beam as a parameter. It is shown that the flexural modulus of the porous beam is decreased with an increasing of its thickness and the effective Poisson's ratio of the porous beams can take negative values for the certain values of the model parameters. On the other hand, the effective shear modulus is constant under variation of all values of the non-classical model parameters. Solutions received for a beam pure bending and the hydrostatic loading of the porous media are compared. It is shown that an analytical estimation for the bulk modulus of the porous material under hydrostatic compression gives an asymptotic value for the effective bulk modulus of the porous beam in the case of beam thickness increasing. Additionally, it is shown that the scale effects appear due to the surface properties of the porous media. Obtained results allow us to offer the procedure of an experimental identification of the non-classical parameters in the theory of the linear elastic materials with voids based on the bending tests for samples with different thickness. Finally, the problem of implementation of the Saint-Venant hypothesis for the transverse stresses in the porous beam are discussed. These stresses are different from zero in the solution of the voids elasticity theory, but satisfy the integral equilibrium equations. In this work, the exact value of the introduced surface parameter was found, which provides the vanishing of the transverse stresses on the free surfaces of a beam.

Keywords: effective properties, scale effects, surface defects, voids elasticity

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Authors: Balasooriya B. M. C. M., Sujeeva N., Thowfeek Z., Siddiqa Omo, Liyanagunawardana J. E., Jayawardana Saiu, Manathunga S. S., Katulanda G. W.

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Introduction and objectives: Adrenal venous sampling (AVS) is the gold standard to discriminate unilateral primary aldosteronism (UPA) from bilateral disease (BPA). AVS is technically demanding and only performed in a limited number of centers worldwide. To the best of our knowledge, Except for one study conducted in India, no other research studies on this area have been conducted in South Asia. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of AVS in the management of primary aldosteronism. Methods: A total of 32 patients who underwent AVS at the National Hospital of Sri Lanka from April 2021 to April 2023 were enrolled. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were obtained retrospectively. A procedure was considered successful when adequate cannulation of both adrenal veins was demonstrated. Cortisol gradient across the adrenal vein (AV) and the peripheral vein was used to establish the success of venous cannulation. Lateralization was determined by the aldosterone gradient between the two sides. Continuous and categorical variables were summarized with mean, SD, and proportions, respectively. The mean and standard deviation of the contralateral suppression index (CSI) were estimated with an intercept-only Bayesian inference model. Results: Of the 32 patients, the average age was 52.47 +26.14 and 19 (59.4%) were males. Both AVs were successfully cannulated in 12 (37.5%). Among them, lateralization was demonstrated in 11(91.7%), and one was diagnosed as a bilateral disease. There were no total failures. Right AV cannulation was unsuccessful in 18 (56.25%), of which lateralization was demonstrated in 9 (50%), and others were inconclusive. Left AV cannulation was unsuccessful only in 2 (6.25%); one was lateralized, and the other remained inconclusive. The estimated mean of the CSI was 0.33 (89% credible interval 0.11-0.86). Seven patients underwent unilateral adrenalectomy and demonstrated significant improvement in blood pressure during follow-up. Two patients await surgery. Others were treated medically. Conclusions: Despite failure due to procedural difficulties, AVS remained useful in the management of patients with PA. Moreover, the success of the procedure needs experienced hands and advanced equipment to achieve optimal outcomes in PA.

Keywords: adrenal venous sampling, lateralization, contralateral suppression index, primary aldosteronism

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Authors: Giorgio Visentin, Alexei A. Buchachenko

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Recent proposals to use Yb dimer as an optical clock and as a sensor for non-Newtonian gravity imply the knowledge of its interaction potential. Here, the ground-state Born-Oppenheimer Yb₂ potential energy curve is represented by a semi-analytical function, consisting of short- and long-range contributions. For the former, the systematic ab initio all-electron exact 2-component scalar-relativistic CCSD(T) calculations are carried out. Special care is taken to saturate diffuse basis set component with the atom- and bond-centered primitives and reach the complete basis set limit through n = D, T, Q sequence of the correlation-consistent polarized n-zeta basis sets. Similar approaches are used to the long-range dipole and quadrupole dispersion terms by implementing the CCSD(3) polarization propagator method for dynamic polarizabilities. Dispersion coefficients are then computed through Casimir-Polder integration. The semiclassical constraint on the number of the bound vibrational levels known for the ¹⁷⁴Yb isotope is used to scale the potential function. The scaling, based on the most accurate ab initio results, bounds the interaction energy of two Yb atoms within the narrow 734 ± 4 cm⁻¹ range, in reasonable agreement with the previous ab initio-based estimations. The resulting potentials can be used as the reference for more sophisticated models that go beyond the Born-Oppenheimer approximation and provide the means of their uncertainty estimations. The work is supported by Russian Science Foundation grant # 17-13-01466.

Keywords: ab initio coupled cluster methods, interaction potential, semi-analytical function, ytterbium dimer

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Authors: Haifeng Zhou, Tsungyang Liow, Xiaoguang Tu, Eujin Lim, Chao Li, Junfeng Song, Xianshu Luo, Ying Huang, Lianxi Jia, Lianwee Luo, Qing Fang, Mingbin Yu, Guoqiang Lo

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With the development of technology, countries gradually allocated more and more frequency spectrums for civilization and commercial usage, especially those high radio frequency bands indicating high information capacity. The field effect becomes more and more prominent in microwave components as frequency increases, which invalidates the transmission line theory and complicate the design of microwave components. Here a modeling approach based on numerical search algorithm is proposed to design various building blocks for microwave circuits to avoid complicated impedance matching and equivalent electrical circuit approximation. Concretely, a microwave component is discretized to a set of segments along the microwave propagation path. Each of the segment is initialized with random dimensions, which constructs a multiple-dimension parameter space. Then numerical searching algorithms (e.g. Pattern search algorithm) are used to find out the ideal geometrical parameters. The optimal parameter set is achieved by evaluating the fitness of S parameters after a number of iterations. We had adopted this approach in our current projects and designed many microwave components including sharp bends, T-branches, Y-branches, microstrip-to-stripline converters and etc. For example, a stripline 90° bend was designed in 2.54 mm x 2.54 mm space for dual-band operation (Ka band and Ku band) with < 0.18 dB insertion loss and < -55 dB reflection. We expect that this approach can enrich the tool kits for microwave designers.

Keywords: microwave component, microstrip and stripline, bend, power division, the numerical search algorithm.

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Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

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Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. In this paper, the results for the reliability of diesel generator fans were calculated through Extreme Value Theory. The Extreme Value Theory is not widely used in the engineering field. Its usage is well known in other areas such as hydrology, meteorology, finance. The significance of this theory is in the fact that unlike the other statistical methods it is focused on rare and extreme values, and not on average. It should be noted that this theory is not designed exclusively for extreme events, but for extreme values in any event. Therefore, this is a great opportunity to apply the theory and test if it could be applied in this situation. The significance of the work is the calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know the time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. The results achieved in this method will show the approximation of time for which the fans will work as they should, and the percentage of probability of fans working more than certain estimated time. Extreme Value Theory can be applied not only for rare and extreme events, but for any event that has values which we can consider as extreme.

Keywords: extreme value theory, lifetime, reliability analysis, statistic, time to failure

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Authors: Hongjian Jia

Abstract:

A finite-length cylindrical shell with a spherical cap is a typical engineering approximation model of actual underwater targets. The research on the omni-directional acoustic scattering characteristics of this target model can provide a favorable basis for the detection and identification of actual underwater targets. The elastic resonance characteristics of the target are the results of the comprehensive effect of the target length, shell-thickness ratio and materials. Under the conditions of different materials and geometric dimensions, the coincidence resonance characteristics of the target have obvious differences. Aiming at this problem, this paper obtains the omni-directional acoustic scattering field of the underwater hemispherical cylindrical shell by numerical calculation and studies the influence of target geometric parameters (length, shell-thickness ratio) and material parameters on the coincidence resonance characteristics of the target in turn. The study found that the formant interval is not a stable value and changes with the incident angle. Among them, the formant interval is less affected by the target length and shell-thickness ratio and is significantly affected by the material properties, which is an effective feature for classifying and identifying targets of different materials. The quadratic polynomial is utilized to fully fit the change relationship between the formant interval and the angle. The results show that the three fitting coefficients of the stainless steel and aluminum targets are significantly different, which can be used as an effective feature parameter to characterize the target materials.

Keywords: hemispherical cylindrical shell;, fine echo characteristics;, geometric and material parameters;, formant interval

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Authors: T. Nakpun, T. Kanjanarach, T. Kittisopee

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Turnover of community pharmacist can affect continuity of patient care and most importantly the quality of care and also the costs of a pharmacy. It was hypothesized that organizational resources, job characteristics, and social supports had direct effect on pharmacist turnover intention, and indirect effect on pharmacist turnover intention via pharmacist engagement. This research aimed to study influencing factors on pharmacist engagement and pharmacist turnover intention by testing the proposed structural hypothesized model to explain the relationship among organizational resources, job characteristics, and social supports that effect on pharmacist turnover intention and pharmacist engagement in Thai community pharmacists. A cross sectional study design with self-administered questionnaire was conducted in 209 Thai community pharmacists. Data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling technique with analysis of a moment structures AMOS program. The final model showed that only organizational resources had significant negative direct effect on pharmacist turnover intention (β =-0.45). Job characteristics and social supports had significant positive relationship with pharmacist engagement (β = 0.44, and 0.55 respectively). Pharmacist engagement had significant negative relationship with pharmacist turnover intention (β = - 0.24). Thus, job characteristics and social supports had significant negative indirect effect on turnover intention via pharmacist engagement (β =-0.11 and -0.13, respectively). The model fit the data well (χ2/ degree of freedom (DF) = 2.12, the goodness of fit index (GFI)=0.89, comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.94 and root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.07). This study can be concluded that organizational resources were the most important factor because it had direct effect on pharmacist turnover intention. Job characteristics and social supports were also help decrease pharmacist turnover intention via pharmacist engagement.

Keywords: community pharmacist, influencing factor, turnover intention, work engagement

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Authors: Jane A. Luke

Abstract:

Persistent pressure passed on to manufacturers from escalating consumer expectations and the ever growing global competitiveness have produced a rapidly increasing interest in the development of various manufacturing strategy models. Academic and industrial circles are taking keen interest in the field of manufacturing strategy. Many manufacturing strategies are currently centered on the traditional concepts of focused manufacturing capabilities such as quality, cost, dependability and innovation. Process capability indices was conducted assuming that the process under study is in statistical control and independent observations are generated over time. However, in practice, it is very common to come across processes which, due to their inherent natures, generate autocorrelated observations. The degree of autocorrelation affects the behavior of patterns on control charts. Even, small levels of autocorrelation between successive observations can have considerable effects on the statistical properties of conventional control charts. When observations are autocorrelated the classical control charts exhibit nonrandom patterns and lack of control. Many authors have considered the effect of autocorrelation on the performance of statistical process control charts. In this paper, the effect of autocorrelation on confidence intervals for different PCIs was included. Stationary Gaussian processes is explained. Effect of autocorrelation on PCIs is described in detail. Confidence intervals for Cp and Cpk are constructed for PCIs when data are both independent and autocorrelated. Confidence intervals for Cp and Cpk are computed. Approximate lower confidence limits for various Cpk are computed assuming AR(1) model for the data. Simulation studies and industrial examples are considered to demonstrate the results.

Keywords: autocorrelation, AR(1) model, Bissell’s approximation, confidence intervals, statistical process control, specification limits, stationary Gaussian processes

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

Abstract:

In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling

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Authors: Sara Tokhi Arab, Rozo Noguchi, Tofeal Ahamed

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Drought is a natural disaster that occurs in a region due to a lack of precipitation and high temperatures over a continuous period or in a single season as a consequence of climate change. Precipitation deficits and prolonged high temperatures mostly affect the agricultural sector, water resources, socioeconomics, and the environment. Consequently, it causes agricultural product loss, food shortage, famines, migration, and natural resources degradation in a region. Agriculture is the first sector affected by drought. Therefore, it is important to develop an agricultural drought risk and loss assessment to mitigate the drought impact in the agriculture sector. In this context, the main purpose of this study was to assess yield loss using composite drought indices in the drought-affected vineyards. In this study, the CDI was developed for the years 2016 to 2020 by comprising five indices: the vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), deviation of NDVI from the long-term mean (NDVI DEV), normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) and precipitation condition index (PCI). Moreover, the quantitative principal component analysis (PCA) approach was used to assign a weight for each input parameter, and then the weights of all the indices were combined into one composite drought index. Finally, Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks (BRANNs) were used to evaluate the yield variation in each affected vineyard. The composite drought index result indicated the moderate to severe droughts were observed across the Kabul Province during 2016 and 2018. Moreover, the results showed that there was no vineyard in extreme drought conditions. Therefore, we only considered the severe and moderated condition. According to the BRANNs results R=0.87 and R=0.94 in severe drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018 and the R= 0.85 and R=0.91 in moderate drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018, respectively. In the Kabul Province within the two years drought periods, there was a significate deficit in the vineyards. According to the findings, 2018 had the highest rate of loss almost -7 ton/ha. However, in 2016 the loss rates were about – 1.2 ton/ha. This research will support stakeholders to identify drought affect vineyards and support farmers during severe drought.

Keywords: grapes, composite drought index, yield loss, satellite remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Odunayo Olawuyi Fadodun

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Dielectric elastomers (DEs) are a type of intelligent materials with salient features like electromechanical coupling, lightweight, fast actuation speed, low cost and high energy density that make them good candidates for numerous engineering applications. This paper adopts a new nonlinear electroelastic constitutive theory to examine radial deformation of a pressurized thick-walled spherical shell of soft dielectric material with compliant electrodes on its inner and outer surfaces. A general formular for the internal pressure, which depends on the deformation and a potential difference between boundary electrodes or uniform surface charge distributions, is obtained in terms of special function. To illustrate the effects of an applied electric field on the mechanical behaviour of the shell, three different energy functions with distinct mechanical properties are employed for numerical purposes. The observed behaviour of the shells is preserved in the presence of an applied electric field, and the influence of the field due to a potential difference declines more slowly with the increasing deformation to that produced by a surface charge. Counterpart results are then presented for the thin-walled shell approximation as a limiting case of a thick-walled shell without restriction on the energy density. In the absence of internal pressure, it is obtained that inflation is caused by the application of an electric field. The resulting numerical solutions of the theory presented in this work are in agreement with those predicted by the generally adopted Dorfmann and Ogden model.

Keywords: constitutive theory, elastic dielectric, electroelasticity, finite deformation, nonlinear response, spherical shell

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Authors: Lien Gysens, Bert Vanmechelen, Maarten Haspeslagh, Piet Maes, Ann Martens

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Bovine papillomavirus (BPV) types 1 and 2 play a central role in the etiology of the most common neoplasm in horses, the equine sarcoid. The unknown mechanism behind the unique variety in a clinical presentation on the one hand and the host-dependent clinical outcome of BPV-1 infection, on the other hand, indicate the involvement of additional factors. Earlier studies have reported the potential functional significance of intratypic sequence variants, along with the existence of sarcoid-sourced BPV variants. Therefore, intratypic sequence variation seems to be an important emerging viral factor. This study aimed to give a broad insight in sarcoid-sourced BPV variation and explore its potential association with disease presentation. In order to do this, a nanopore sequencing approach was successfully optimized for screening a wide spectrum of clinical samples. Specimens of each tumour were initially screened for BPV-1/-2 by quantitative real-time PCR. A custom-designed primer set was used on BPV-positive samples to amplify the complete viral genome in two multiplex PCR reactions, resulting in a set of overlapping amplicons. For phylogenetic analysis, separate alignments were made of all available complete genome sequences for BPV-1/-2. The resulting alignments were used to infer Bayesian phylogenetic trees. We found substantial genetic variation among sarcoid-derived BPV-1, although this variation could not be linked to disease severity. Several of the BPV-1 genomes had multiple major deletions. Remarkably, the majority of the cluster within the region coding for late viral genes. Together with the extensiveness (up to 603 nucleotides) of the described deletions, this suggests an altered function of L1/L2 in disease pathogenesis. By generating a significant amount of complete-length BPV genomes, we succeeded in introducing next-generation sequencing into veterinary research focusing on the equine sarcoid, thus facilitating the first report of both nanopore-based sequencing of complete sarcoid-sourced BPV-1/-2 and the simultaneous nanopore sequencing of multiple complete genomes originating from a single clinical sample.

Keywords: Bovine papillomavirus, equine sarcoid, horse, nanopore sequencing, phylogenetic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Yosep Chong, Yejin Kim, Jingyun Choi, Hwanjo Yu, Eun Jung Lee, Chang Suk Kang

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For the past decades, immunohistochemistry (IHC) has been playing an important role in the diagnosis of human neoplasms, by helping pathologists to make a clearer decision on differential diagnosis, subtyping, personalized treatment plan, and finally prognosis prediction. However, the IHC performed in various tumors of daily practice often shows conflicting and very challenging results to interpret. Even comprehensive diagnosis synthesizing clinical, histologic and immunohistochemical findings can be helpless in some twisted cases. Another important issue is that the IHC data is increasing exponentially and more and more information have to be taken into account. For this reason, we reached an idea to develop an expert supporting system to help pathologists to make a better decision in diagnosing human neoplasms with IHC results. We gave probabilistic decision tree algorithm and tested the algorithm with real case data of lymphoid neoplasms, in which the IHC profile is more important to make a proper diagnosis than other human neoplasms. We designed probabilistic decision tree based on Bayesian theorem, program computational process using MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc., USA) and prepared IHC profile database (about 104 disease category and 88 IHC antibodies) based on WHO classification by reviewing the literature. The initial probability of each neoplasm was set with the epidemiologic data of lymphoid neoplasm in Korea. With the IHC results of 131 patients sequentially selected, top three presumptive diagnoses for each case were made and compared with the original diagnoses. After the review of the data, 124 out of 131 were used for final analysis. As a result, the presumptive diagnoses were concordant with the original diagnoses in 118 cases (93.7%). The major reason of discordant cases was that the similarity of the IHC profile between two or three different neoplasms. The expert supporting system algorithm presented in this study is in its elementary stage and need more optimization using more advanced technology such as deep-learning with data of real cases, especially in differentiating T-cell lymphomas. Although it needs more refinement, it may be used to aid pathological decision making in future. A further application to determine IHC antibodies for a certain subset of differential diagnoses might be possible in near future.

Keywords: database, expert supporting system, immunohistochemistry, probabilistic decision tree

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Authors: Suneel Kumar, Nanda Kumar J. Sreelal Sreedhar, Suchibrata Sen, V. Muralidharan,

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Fan technology is very critical and crucial for any aero engine technology. The fan disc forms a critical part of the fan module. It is an airworthiness requirement to have a metrological qualified quality disc. The current study uses a tactile probing and scanning on an articulated measuring machine (AMM), a bridge type coordinate measuring machine (CMM) and Metrology software for intermediate and final dimensional and geometrical verification during the prototype development of the disc manufactured through forging and machining process. The circumferential dovetails manufactured through the milling process are evaluated based on the evaluated and analysed metrological process. To perform metrological optimization a change of philosophy is needed making quality measurements available as fast as possible to improve process knowledge and accelerate the process but with accuracy, precise and traceable measurements. The offline CMM programming for inspection and optimisation of the CMM inspection plan are crucial portions of the study and discussed. The dimensional measurement plan as per the ASME B 89.7.2 standard to reach an optimised CMM measurement plan and strategy are an important requirement. The probing strategy, stylus configuration, and approximation strategy effects on the measurements of circumferential dovetail measurements of the developmental prototype disc are discussed. The results were discussed in the form of enhancement of the R &R (repeatability and reproducibility) values with uncertainty levels within the desired limits. The findings from the measurement strategy adopted for disc dovetail evaluation and inspection time optimisation are discussed with the help of various analyses and graphical outputs obtained from the verification process.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machine, CMM, aero engine, articulated measuring machine, fan disc

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa

Abstract:

In the area of the oil industry, there is accompanied by associated natural gas. The thing shows that a large amount of energy is being wasted mostly in the developing countries by contributing to the global warming process. This research represents an overview of methods in Minas area employed by these researchers in PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia to determine ways of measuring and reducing gas flaring and its emission drastically. It provides an approximation includes analytical studies, numerical studies, modeling, computer simulations, etc. Flaring system is the controlled burning of natural gas in the course of routine oil and gas production operations. This burning occurs at the end of a flare stack or boom. The combustion process will release emissions of greenhouse gases such as NO2, CO2, SO2, etc. This condition will affect the air and environment around the industrial area. Therefore, we need a simulation to create the pattern of the dissemination of pollutant. This research paper has being made to see trends in gas flaring model and current developments to predict dominant variable which gives impact to dissemination of pollutant. Fluent models used to simulate the distribution of pollutant gas coming out of the stack. While WRF model output is used to overcome the limitations of the analysis of meteorological data and atmospheric conditions in the study area. This study condition focused on transition season in 2012 at Minas area. The goal of the simulation is looking for the exact time which is most influence towards dissemination of pollutants. The most influence factor divided into two main subjects. It is the quickest wind and the slowest wind. According to the simulation results, it can be seen that quickest wind moves to horizontal way and slowest wind moves to vertical way.

Keywords: flaring system, fluent model, dissemination of pollutant, transition season

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Khayrullina Yulia Sergeevna, Tokareva Goulsine Shavkatovna

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The article analyzes the modern major railway hubs as a main part of the Urban Nodal Area (UNA). The term was introduced into the theory of urban planning at the end of the XX century. Tokareva G.S. jointly with Gutnov A.E. investigated the structure-forming elements of the city. UNA is the basic unit, the "cell" of the city structure. Specialization is depending on the position in the frame or the fabric of the city. This is related to feature of its organization. Spatial and functional features of UNA proposed to investigate in this paper. The base object for researching are railway hubs as connective nodes of inner and extern-city communications. Research used a stratified sampling type with the selection of typical objects. Research is being conducted on the 14 railway hubs of the native and foreign experience of the largest cities with a population over 1 million people located in one and close to the Russian climate zones. Features of the organization identified in the complex research of functional and spatial characteristics based on the hypothesis of the existence of dual characteristics of the organization of urban nodes. According to the analysis, there is using the approximation method that enable general conclusions of a representative selection of the entire population of railway hubs and it development’s area. Results of the research show specific ratio of functional and spatial organization of UNA based on railway hubs. Based on it there proposed typology of spaces and urban nodal areas. Identification of spatial diversity and functional organization’s features of the greatest railway hubs and it development’s area gives an indication of the different evolutionary stages of formation approaches. It help to identify new patterns for the complex and effective design as a prediction of the native hub’s development direction.

Keywords: urban nodal area, railway hubs, features of structural, functional organization

Procedia PDF Downloads 366