Search results for: pandemic. Economics variables shocks

Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Muhammad Fayyaz Nazir, Ellen Wayenberg, Shahzadaah Faahed Qureshi

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Introduction: The study is based on the Contextual Interaction Theory (CIT) constructs to explore the role of policy actors in implementing the COVID-19 Disease Prevention and Control (DP&C) Policy. The study analyzes the role of healthcare workers' contextual factors, such as cognition, motives, and resources, and their interactions in implementing Social Distancing (SD). In this way, we test a two actors policy implementation theory, i.e., the CIT in a three-actor context. Methods: Data was collected through document analysis and semi-structured interviews. For a qualitative study design, interviews were conducted with questions on cognition, motives, and resources from the healthcare workers involved in implementing SD in the local context in Multan – Pakistan. The possible interactions resulting from contextual factors of the policy actors – healthcare workers were identified through framework analysis protocol guided by CIT and supported by trustworthiness criterion and data saturation. Results: This inquiry resulted in theory application, addition, and enrichment. The theoretical application in the three actor's contexts illustrates the different levels of motives, cognition, and resources of healthcare workers – senior administrators, managers, and healthcare professionals. The senior administrators working in National Command and Operations Center (NCOC), Provincial Technical Committees (PTCs), and Districts Covid Teams (DCTs) were playing their role with high motivation. They were fully informed about the policy and moderately resourceful. The policy implementors: healthcare managers working on implementing the SD within their respective hospitals were playing their role with high motivation and were fully informed about the policy. However, they lacked the required resources to implement SD. The target medical and allied healthcare professionals were moderately motivated but lack of resources and information. The interaction resulted in cooperation and the need for learning to manage the future healthcare crisis. However, the lack of resources created opposition to the implementation of SD. Objectives of the Study: The study aimed to apply a two actors theory in a multi actors context. We take this as an opportunity to qualitatively test the theory in a novel situation of the Covid-19 pandemic and make way for its quantitative application by designing a survey instrument so that implementation researchers can apply CIT through multivariate analyses or higher-order statistical modeling. Conclusion: Applying two actors' implementation theory in exploring a complex case of healthcare intervention in three actors context is a unique work that has never been done before, up to the best of our knowledge. So, the work will contribute to the policy implementation studies by applying, extending, and enriching an implementation theory in a novel case of the Covi-19 pandemic, ultimately fulfilling the gap in implementation literature. Policy institutions and other low or middle-income countries can learn from this research and improve SD implementation by working on the variables with weak significance levels.

Keywords: COVID-19, disease prevention and control policy, implementation, policy actors, social distancing

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Authors: Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh, Aliyeh Kazemi

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In this paper, a method is proposed for solving Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming problems (FMOLPP) with fuzzy right hand side and fuzzy decision variables. To illustrate the proposed method, it is applied to the problem of selecting suppliers for an automotive parts producer company in Iran in order to find the number of optimal orders allocated to each supplier considering the conflicting objectives. Finally, the obtained results are discussed.

Keywords: fuzzy multi-objective linear programming problems, triangular fuzzy numbers, fuzzy ranking, supplier selection problem

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Authors: Sabiu Bala Muhammad, Rosli Saad

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Multiple linear regression (MLR) models for fast estimation of true subsurface resistivity from apparent resistivity field measurements are developed and assessed in this study. The parameters investigated were apparent resistivity (ρₐ), horizontal location (X) and depth (Z) of measurement as the independent variables; and true resistivity (ρₜ) as the dependent variable. To achieve linearity in both resistivity variables, datasets were first transformed into logarithmic domain following diagnostic checks of normality of the dependent variable and heteroscedasticity to ensure accurate models. Four MLR models were developed based on hierarchical combination of the independent variables. The generated MLR coefficients were applied to another data set to estimate ρₜ values for validation. Contours of the estimated ρₜ values were plotted and compared to the observed data plots at the colour scale and blanking for visual assessment. The accuracy of the models was assessed using coefficient of determination (R²), standard error (SE) and weighted mean absolute percentage error (wMAPE). It is concluded that the MLR models can estimate ρₜ for with high level of accuracy.

Keywords: apparent resistivity, depth, horizontal location, multiple linear regression, true resistivity

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Authors: Marco Camilli

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This article examines the impact of the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 in the tourism sector in Italy, analyzing the current scenario, the government decisions and the private company reaction for the summer season 2020. The framework of the data analyzed shows how massive it’s the impact of the pandemic outbreak in the tourism revenue, and the weaknesses of the measures proposed. Keywords Travel &Tourism, Transportation, Sustainability, COVID-19, Businesses Introduction The current COVID-19 scenario shows a shocking situation for the tourism and transportation sectors: it could be the most affected by the Coronavirus in Italy. According to forecasts, depending on the duration of the epidemic outbreak and the lockdown strategy applied by the Government, businesses in the supply chain could lose between 24 and 66 billion in turnover in the period of 2020-21, with huge diversified impacts at the national and regional level. Many tourist companies are on the verge of survival and if there are no massive measures by the government they risk closure. Data analysis The tourism and transport sector could be among the sectors most damaged by Covid-19 in Italy. Considering the two-year period 2020-21, companies operating in the travel & tourism sector (Tour operator, Travel Agencies, Hotel, Guides, Bus Company, etc..) could in suffer losses in revenues of 24 to 64 billion euros, especially in the sectors such as the travel agencies, hotel and rental. According to Statista Research Department, from April 2020 estimated that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will have a significant impact on revenues of the tourism industry in Italy. Revenues are expected to decrease by over 40 billion euros in the first semester of 2020, compared to the same period of the previous year. According to the study, hotel and non-hotel accommodations will experience the highest loss. Revenues of this sector are expected to decrease by 13 billion euros compared to the first semester of 2019 when accommodations registered revenues for about 17 billion euros. According to Statista.com, in 2020, Italy is expected to register a decrease of roughly 28.5 million tourist arrivals due to the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the country's tourist sector. According to the estimate, the region of Veneto will record the highest drop with a decrease of roughly 4.61 million arrivals. Similarly, Lombardy is expected to register a decrease of about 3.87 million arrivals in 2020.

Keywords: travel and tourism, sustainability, COVID-19, businesses, transportation

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Authors: Nino KItoshvili

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The family is an integral part of society, which plays a major role in the socialization and the formation of a person as a full member of society. The marital conflict even harms family members and finds a different effect on each member of the family, especially on children. There is a significant difference in the behavior of adolescents in conflict and non-conflict families. In times of marital conflict, adolescent psycho-social well-being is significantly dependent on socio-cultural mediating variables such as; Family income; Parenting style; The functioning of the family, and the existence of psycho-social support. In a family with low economic performance, low psychosocial harassment, family dysfunction, and bad parenting style, marital conflict significantly increases the risk of deteriorating adolescent psycho-social well-being. At this time, to support the well-being of the child, a special role is played by improving the marital relationship, which must be supported by state and community services. There are very few family studies in this field in Georgia, the therapeutic direction of the family is at an early stage, and there are no family-supporting psycho-social programs. This increases the chances of adolescent psycho-social well-being deteriorating amd socialization problems. The study will examine the mediating variables of marital conflict and adolescent psycho-social well-being and will attempt to determine their mediating and moderating role. Research suggests that an increase in the rate of marital conflict is associated with a decrease in child well-being. The well-being of children in conflict families is lower than that of children in non-conflict families and depends on the variables of mediating variables. Quantitative research will be conducted to study this phenomenon through a questionnaire developed and standardized in the research process. The study will be attended by families living in Georgia - spouses (married) and their adolescent children. By analyzing the data obtained from the research, we will be able to determine in which cases the intensity of the relationship between the marital conflict and the well-being of the adolescent increases or decreases; To conclude the mediating and moderating role of mediating variables and also to make relevant recommendations to reduce the negative impact on the psycho-social well-being of a child of marital conflict.

Keywords: adolescent, mediation, moderation, conflict, couple, well-being

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Authors: Mohammad Soltani, Sajad Ahmadizad, Fatemeh Hoseinzadeh, Atefe Sarvestan

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The exercise recovery is an important variable in designing resistance exercise training. This study determined the effects of passive and active recoveries on responses of platelet indices and hemodynamic variables to resistance exercise. Twelve healthy subjects (six men and six women, age, 25.4 ±2.5 yrs) performed two types of resistance exercise protocols (six exercises including upper- and lower-body parts) at two separate sessions with one-week intervening. First resistance protocol included three sets of six repetitions at 80% of 1RM with 2 min passive rest between sets and exercises; while, the second protocol included three sets of six repetitions at 60% of 1RM followed by active recovery included six repetitions of the same exercise at 20% of 1RM. The exercise volume was equalized. Three blood samples were taken before exercise, immediately after exercise and after 1-hour recovery, and analyzed for fibrinogen and platelet indices. Blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR) and rate pressure product (RPP), were measured before, immediately after exercise and every 5 minutes during recovery. Data analyzes showed a significant increase in SBP (systolic blood pressure), HR, rate of pressure product (RPP) and PLT in response to resistance exercise (P<0.05) and that changes for HR and RPP were significantly different between two protocols (P<0.05). Furthermore, MPV and P_LCR did not change in response to resistance exercise, though significant reductions were observed after 1h recovery compared to before and after exercise (P<0.05). No significant changes in fibrinogen and PDW following two types of resistance exercise protocols were observed (P>0.05). On the other hand, no significant differences in platelet indices were found between the two protocols (P>0.05). Resistance exercise induces changes in platelet indices and hemodynamic variables, and that these changes are not related to the type of recovery and returned to normal levels after 1h recovery.

Keywords: hemodynamic variables, platelet indices, resistance exercise, recovery intensity

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Authors: Ramachandra Pradhan, Sandeep Singh Rama, Sabyasachi Mishra

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Jackfruit (Artocarpus heterophyllus L.) in its tender form is consumed as a vegetable and popular for its flavour, colour and meat like texture. In South Asian countries like Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Indonesia the market value for tender jackfruit is very high. However, due to lack of technology the marketing and transportation of the fruit is a challenge. The processing activities like washing, sorting, peeling and cutting enhances oxidative stress in fresh cut jackfruit. It is also having the ill effects on quality of fresh cut tender jackfruit by an increase in microbial contaminations, excessive tissue softening, and depletion of phytochemicals and browning. Hence, this study was conducted as a solution to the above problem. Fresh cut tender Jackfruit slices were processed by using the independent parameters such as concentration of CaCl2 (2-5%), concentration of citric acid (1-2.5%) and treatment time (4-10 min.) and the depended variables were Browning index (BI), colour change (ΔE), Firmness (F) and Overall all acceptability (OAA) after the treatment. From the response variables the best combination of independent variables was resulted as 3% concentration of CaCl2 and 2% concentration of citric acid for 6 minutes. At these optimised processing treatments, the browning can be prevented for fresh cut tender jackfruit. This technology can be used by the researcher, scientists, industries, etc. for further processing of tender jackfruit.

Keywords: tender jackfruit, browning index, firmness, texture

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Authors: Mohammad Amini, Aliakbar Alijarahi

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This research that is collected and title as ‘ the search of possibility of running six sigma process in IT education center ‘ goals to test possibility of running the six sigma process and using in IT education center system. This process is a good method that is used for reducing process, errors. To evaluate running off six sigma in the IT education center, some variables relevant to this process is selected. These variables are: - The amount of support from organization master boss to process. - The current specialty. - The ability of training system for compensating reduction. - The amount of match between current culture whit six sigma culture . - The amount of current quality by comparing whit quality gain from running six sigma. For evaluation these variables we select four question and to gain the answers, we set a questionnaire from with 28 question and distribute it in our typical society. Since, our working environment is a very competition, and organization needs to decree the errors to minimum, otherwise it lasts their customers. The questionnaire from is given to 55 persons, they were filled and returned by 50 persons, after analyzing the forms these results is gained: - IT education center needs to use and run this system (six sigma) for improving their process qualities. - The most factors need to run the six sigma exist in the IT education center, but there is a need to support.

Keywords: education, customer, self-action, quality, continuous improvement process

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Authors: Shilpesh R. Rajpurohit, Harshit K. Dave

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Additive manufacturing gains the popularity in recent times, due to its capability to create prototype as well functional as end use product directly from CAD data without any specific requirement of tooling. Fused deposition modeling (FDM) is one of the widely used additive manufacturing techniques that are used to create functional end use part of polymer that is comparable with the injection-molded parts. FDM printed part has an application in various fields such as automobile, aerospace, medical, electronic, etc. However, application of FDM part is greatly affected by poor mechanical properties. Proper selection of the process parameter could enhance the mechanical performance of the printed part. In the present study, experimental investigation has been carried out to study the behavior of the mechanical performance of the printed part with respect to process variables. Three process variables viz. raster angle, raster width and layer height have been varied to understand its effect on tensile strength. Further, effect of process variables on fractured surface has been also investigated.

Keywords: 3D Printing, fused deposition modeling, layer height, raster angle, raster width, tensile strength

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Authors: Rania Mousa, Peterson Ozili

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A key agenda of policymakers in developed and developing countries is to increase the level of financial inclusion. Microlending institutions have been recognized as important agents of financial inclusion, which have the potential to achieve this objective and help move toward a more accessible, inclusive, and equitable path to financial sustainability. In that respect, this case study attempts to identify and assess the key initiatives undertaken by Grameen America as it responded to the COVID-19 pandemic within the framework of selected United Nations’ Sustainability Development Goals (UN’s SD Goals). This study goes beyond the stated objective by using the vulnerable group theory and special agent theory of financial inclusion to support the analysis of financial and non-financial information collected from Grameen America’s Annual Reports and audited financial statements. The study follows a qualitative content analysis method to precisely gauge the shift in Grameen’s strategy and focus, as well as to assess the impact of its initiatives on the small business community before and after the pandemic. The findings showcase that Grameen’s longstanding mission to alleviate poverty is in line with the UN’s Sustainability Development Goal 1. Furthermore, Grameen’s commitment to creating partnerships with external organizations to offer credit and non-credit services and support is consistent with UN’s Sustainability Development Goal 17. The study suggests that policymakers should foster the creation of more member-based financial and non-financial institutions which are ethically and morally responsible to their members in both good and bad times.

Keywords: COVID-19, financial inclusion, microfinance, sustainable development, microlending

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Authors: Shahbaz Ahmed

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This study is conducted to demonstrate the knowledge of intentional learning and incidental learning. Hypothesis of this experiment is intentional learning is better than incidental learning, participants were demonstrated and were asked to learn the 10 nonsense syllables in a specific sequence from the colored cards in the end they were asked to recall the background color of each card instead of nonsense syllables. Independent variables of the experiment are the colored cards containing nonsense syllables which are to be memorized by the participants, dependent variables are the number of correct responses made by the participant. The findings of the experiment concluded that intentional learning is better than incidental learning, hence hypothesis is proved.

Keywords: intentional learning, incidental learning, non-sense syllable cards, score sheets

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Authors: Muhammad Shehu Garba

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The financial statements of the firms between the periods of 2013 and 2022 were collected using the secondary method of data collection, and the study aims to investigate the effect of ownership structure on the financial performance of listed industrial goods companies in Nigeria. 10 firms were used as the study's sample size. The study used panel data variables of the study. The ownership structure is measured with managerial ownership, institutional ownership and foreign ownership, while financial performance is measured with return on asset and return on equity; the study made use of control variables leverage and firm size. The result shows a multivariate relationship that exists between variables of the study, which shows ROA has a positive correlation with ROE (0.4053), MO (0.2001), and FS (0.3048). It has a negative correlation with FO (-0.1933), IO (-0.0919), and LEV (-0.3367). ROE has a positive correlation with ROA (0.4053), MO (0.2001), and FS (0.2640). It has a negative correlation with FO (-0.1864), IO (-0.1847), and LEV (-0.0319). It is recommended that firms should focus on increasing their ROA. Firms should also consider increasing their MO, as this can help to align the interests of managers and shareholders. Firms should also be aware of the potential impact of FO and IO on their ROA.

Keywords: firm size, ownership structure, financial performance, leaverage

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Authors: Joana PaScoa Pinheiro, David Goncalves Ferreira, Filipe Ramos, Joaquim Soares Do Brito, Samuel Martins, Marco Sarmento

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Introduction: The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic was identified in January 2020 in China, in the city of Wuhan. The increase in the number of cases over the following months was responsible for the restructuring of hospitals and departments in order to accommodate admissions related to COVID-19. Essential services, such as trauma, had to readapt to maintain their functionality and thus guarantee quick and safe access in case of an emergency. Objectives: This study describes the impact of COVID-19 on a Level III Trauma Center and particularly on the clinical management of hospitalized patients with spine injuries. Study Design & Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study whose results were obtained through the medical records of patients with spine injuries who underwent surgical intervention in the years 2019 and 2020 (period from March 1st to December 31st). A comparison between the two groups was made. In the study patients with injuries in the context of trauma were included who underwent surgery in the periods previously described. Patients hospitalized with a spine injury in a non-traumatic context and/or were not surgically treated were excluded. Results: In total, 137 patients underwent trauma spine surgery of which 71 in 2019 (51.8%) were without significant differences in intergroup comparisons. The most frequent injury mechanism in 2019 was motor vehicle crash (47.9%) compared to 2020 which was of a person falling from a height between 2-4 meters (37.9%). Cervical trauma was reported to be the most frequent spine injury in both years. There was a significant decrease in the need for intensive care in 2020, 51.4% vs 30.3%, p = .015 and the number of complications was also lower in 2020 (1.35% vs 0.98%), including the number of deaths, being the difference marginally significant. There were no significant differences regarding time for presentation to surgery or in the total days of hospitalization. Conclusions: The restructuring made in the trauma unit at a Level III Trauma Center in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic was effective, with no significant differences between the years of 2019 vs 2020 when compared with the time for presentation to surgery or the number of days of hospitalization. It was also found that lockdown rules in 2020 were probably responsible for the decrease in the number of road traffic accidents, which justifies a significant decrease in the need for intensive care as well as in the number of complications in patients hospitalized in the context of spine trauma.

Keywords: trauma, spine, impact, covid-19

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Authors: Junaid C, Sabique MK

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Introduction: MES Mamapd College is an autonomous college established in 1964 affiliated with the University of Calicut run by the Muslim Educational Society Kerala. The department of Arabic of the college is having a pivotal role in promoting Arabic language learning, teaching, research, and other allied academic activities. State of Problem: Department of Arabic of the college introduced before the academic committee the culture of international seminars. The department connected the academic community with foreign scholars and introduced industry-academia collaboration programs which are beneficial to the job seekers. These practices and innovations should be documented. Objectives: Create awareness of innovative practices implemented for the promotion of the Arabic language. Infuse confidence in learners in learning of Arabic language. Showcase the distinctive academic programs initiated by the department Methodology: Data will be collected from archives, souvenirs, and reports. Survey methods and interviews with authorities and beneficiaries will be collected for the data analysis. Major results: MES Mampad College introduced before its stakeholders different unique academic practices related to the Arabic language and literature. When the unprecedented pandemic situation pulled back all of the academic community, the department come forward with numerous academic initiatives utilizing the virtual space. Both arenas will be documented. Conclusion: This study will help to make awareness on the promotion of the Arabic language studies and related practices initiated by the department of Arabic MES Mampad College. These practices and innovations can be modeled and replicated.

Keywords: teaching Arabic language, MES mampad college, Arabic webinars, pandemic impacts in literature

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Authors: William Albeiro Alvarez, Gloria Patricia Jaramillo, Ivan Reinaldo Sarmiento

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Understanding the behavior of individuals and the different human factors that influence the choice when faced with a complex system such as transportation is one of the most complicated aspects of measuring in the components that constitute the modeling of route choice due to that various behaviors and driving mode directly or indirectly affect the choice. During the last two decades, with the development of information and communications technologies, new data collection techniques have emerged such as GPS, geolocation with mobile phones, apps for choosing the route between origin and destination, individual service transport applications among others, where an interest has been generated to improve discrete choice models when considering the incorporation of these developments as well as psychological factors that affect decision making. This paper implements a discrete choice model that proposes and estimates a hybrid model that integrates route choice models and latent variables based on the observation on the route of a sample of public taxi drivers from the city of Medellín, Colombia in relation to its behavior, personality, socioeconomic characteristics, and driving mode. The set of choice options includes the routes generated by the individual service transport applications versus the driver's choice. The hybrid model consists of measurement equations that relate latent variables with measurement indicators and utilities with choice indicators along with structural equations that link the observable characteristics of drivers with latent variables and explanatory variables with utilities.

Keywords: behavior choice model, human factors, hybrid model, real time data

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Authors: Ghadeer A.Al-Jabaree, Husam Aldeen Al-Khadash, M. Nassar

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This study aimed at investigating the effect of well-designed corporate governance system on the financial stability of insurance companies listed in ASE. Further, this study provides a comprehensive model for evaluating and analyzing insurance companies' financial position and prospective for comparing the degree of corporate governance application provisions among Jordanian insurance companies. In order to achieve the goals of the study, a whole population that consist of (27) listed insurance companies was introduced through the variables of (board of director, audit committee, internal and external auditor, board and management ownership and block holder's identities). Statistical methods were used with alternative techniques by (SPSS); where descriptive statistical techniques such as means, standard deviations were used to describe the variables, while (F) test and ANOVA analysis of variance were used to test the hypotheses of the study. The study revealed the existence of significant effect of corporate governance variables except local companies that are not listed in ASE on financial stability within control variables especially debt ratio (leverage),where it's also showed that concentration in motor third party doesn't have significant effect on insurance companies' financial stability during study period. Moreover, the study concludes that Global financial crisis affect the investment side of insurance companies with insignificant effect on the technical side. Finally, some recommendations were presented such as enhancing the laws and regulation that help the appropriate application of corporate governance, and work on activating the transparency in the disclosures of the financial statements and focusing on supporting the technical provisions for the companies, rather than focusing only on profit side.

Keywords: corporate governance, financial stability and solvency margin, insurance companies, Jordan

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Authors: Hervice Roméo Fogno Fotsoa, Germaine Djuidje Kenmoe, Claude Vidal Aloyem Kazé

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One of the main applications of machine learning is the prediction of time series. But a more accurate prediction requires a more optimal model of machine learning. Several optimization techniques have been developed, but without considering the input variables disposition of the system. Thus, this work aims to present a new machine learning architecture optimization technique based on their optimal input variables disposition. The validations are done on the prediction of wind time series, using data collected in Cameroon. The number of possible dispositions with four input variables is determined, i.e., twenty-four. Each of the dispositions is used to perform the prediction, with the main criteria being the training and prediction performances. The results obtained from a static architecture and a dynamic architecture of neural networks have shown that these performances are a function of the input variable's disposition, and this is in a different way from the architectures. This analysis revealed that it is necessary to take into account the input variable's disposition for the development of a more optimal neural network model. Thus, a new neural network training algorithm is proposed by introducing the search for the optimal input variables disposition in the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The results of the application of this new optimization approach on the two single neural network architectures are compared with the previously obtained results step by step. Moreover, this proposed approach is validated in a collaborative optimization method with a single objective optimization technique, i.e., genetic algorithm back-propagation neural networks. From these comparisons, it is concluded that each proposed model outperforms its traditional model in terms of training and prediction performance of time series. Thus the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series forecasts. This proves that the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series prediction based on machine learning.

Keywords: input variable disposition, machine learning, optimization, performance, time series prediction

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Authors: Sophia Yakhlef

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In spring 2020, the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reached the epidemiological criteria to be declared a global pandemic. Global action was taken in order to stop the spread of the virus, such as, for example, restrictions regarding spending time outside of your home and, in several countries, periods of mandatory quarantine. Sweden's method of handling the pandemic has stood out among other European nations, and the tactic of relying on citizens' sense of civic solidarity, rather than enforcing legal restrictions preventing people from spending time outside, has been highly criticised in international news media. This situation has entailed a moral dilemma concerning the proper conduct of behaviour in everyday situations in Sweden, which is also reflected in public news media and social media. This media study focuses on Swedish social media debates and attitudes concerning moral dilemmas of handling this sense of civic solidarity. Comments on social media forums expressing outrage and anger regarding, amongst others, the actions of public media figures (such as celebrities, journalists, and bloggers) are analyzed. Drawing on a social psychological perspective on emotions, the study identifies ambiguities of moral disagreements and moral panics as ways of expressing that a moral norm has been violated. The findings suggest that social media is used in order to handle such ambiguities and make sense of the loosely defined norms of civic solidarity.

Keywords: COVID-19 crisis, moral disagreements, moral panic, social media, social norms, social psychology, Sweden

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Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia

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In this paper we analyze the state-dependent risk-spillover in different economic areas. To this end, we apply the quantile regression-based methodology developed in Adams, Füss and Gropp approach to examine the spillover in conditional tails of daily returns of indices of the banking industry in the US, BRICs, Peripheral EMU, Core EMU, Scandinavia, the UK and Emerging Markets. This methodology allow us to characterize size, direction and strength of financial contagion in a network of bilateral exposures to address cross-border vulnerabilities under different states of the economy. The general evidence shows as the spillover effects are higher and more significant in volatile periods than in tranquil ones. There is evidence of tail spillovers of which much is attributable to a spillover from the US on the rest of the analyzed regions, specially on European countries. In sharp contrast, the US banking system show more financial resilience against foreign shocks.

Keywords: spillover effects, Bank Contagion, SDSVaR, expected shortfall, VaR, expectiles

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Authors: Yao Meng, Mahroo Eftekhari, Dennis Loveday

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Currently, there are two types of heating systems in Chinese residential buildings, with respect to the controllability of the heating system, one is an old heating system without any possibility of controlling room temperature and another is a new heating system that provides temperature control of individual rooms. This paper is aiming to evaluate the impact of potential variables on the energy performance of old and new buildings respectively in China, and to explore how the use of individual room temperature control would change occupants’ heating behaviour and thermal comfort in Chinese residential buildings and its impact on the building energy performance. In the study, two types of residential buildings have been chosen, the new building install personal control on the heating system, together with ‘pay for what you use’ tariffs. The old building comprised uncontrolled heating with payment based on floor area. The studies were carried out in each building, with a longitudinal monitoring of indoor air temperature, outdoor air temperature, window position. The occupants’ behaviour and thermal sensation were evaluated by questionnaires. Finally, use the simulated analytic method to identify the impact of influence variables on energy use for both types of buildings.

Keywords: residential buildings, China, design parameters, energy efficiency, simulation analytics method

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Authors: Nizar Mansour, Chiha Gaha, Emna Gara

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The present research investigates the relationship among HRM practices, knowledge sharing behavior and a certain number of intermediary variables in the context of Tunisian knowledge-intensive firms. Results suggest that five HR practices influence either directly or indirectly the knowledge sharing behavior through enhancing the value of human capital and fostering a learning-oriented organizational climate. Results have strong theoretical implications for both the fields of knowledge management and strategic human resource management. Managerial implications are also derived.

Keywords: human capital, knowledge intensive firms, knowledge sharing, organizational climate, Tunisia

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Authors: M. Moeinaddini, Z. Asadi-Shekari, Z. Sultan, M. Zaly Shah

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Happiness can be related to everything that can provide a feeling of satisfaction or pleasure. This study tries to consider the relationship between land use factors and feeling of happiness at the neighbourhood level. Land use variables (beautiful and attractive neighbourhood design, availability and quality of shopping centres, sufficient recreational spaces and facilities, and sufficient daily service centres) are used as independent variables and the happiness score is used as the dependent variable in this study. In addition to the land use variables, socio-economic factors (gender, race, marital status, employment status, education, and income) are also considered as independent variables. This study uses the Oxford happiness questionnaire to estimate happiness score of more than 300 people living in six neighbourhoods. The neighbourhoods are selected randomly from Skudai neighbourhoods in Johor, Malaysia. The land use data were obtained by adding related questions to the Oxford happiness questionnaire. The strength of the relationship in this study is found using generalised linear modelling (GLM). The findings of this research indicate that increase in happiness feeling is correlated with an increasing income, more beautiful and attractive neighbourhood design, sufficient shopping centres, recreational spaces, and daily service centres. The results show that all land use factors in this study have significant relationship with happiness but only income, among socio-economic factors, can affect happiness significantly. Therefore, land use factors can affect happiness in Skudai more than socio-economic factors.

Keywords: neighbourhood land use, neighbourhood design, happiness, socio-economic factors, generalised linear modelling

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Authors: Nicole A. Alford

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The study of online graduate education started just 30 years ago, with the first online graduate program in the 1990s. Institutions are looking for ways to increase retention and support the needs of students with the rapid expansion of online higher education due to the global pandemic. Online education provides access and opportunities to those who otherwise would be unable to pursue an advanced degree for logistical reasons. Thus, the objective of the critical literature review is to survey current research of student experiences given the expanding role of online doctoral programs. The guiding research questions are: What are the personal, professional, and student life practices of graduate students who enrolled in a fully online university doctoral program or course? and How do graduate students who enrolled in a fully online doctoral program or course describe the factors that contributed to their continued study? The systematic literature review was conducted employing a variety of databases to locate articles using key Boolean terms and synonyms within three categories of the e-learning, doctoral education, and student perspectives. Inclusion criteria for the literature review consisted of empirical peer-reviewed studies with original data sources that focused on doctoral programs and courses within a fully online environment and centered around student experiences. A total of 16 articles were selected based on the inclusion criteria and systemically analyzed through coding using the Boote and Beile criteria. Major findings suggest that doctoral students face stressors related to social and emotional wellbeing in the online environment. A lack of social connection, isolation, and burnout were the main challenges experienced by students. Students found support from their colleagues, advisors, and faculty to persist. Communities and cohorts of online doctoral students were found to guard against these challenges. Moreover, in the methods section of the articles, there was a lack of specificity related to student demographics, general student information, and insufficient detail about the online doctoral program. Additionally, descriptions regarding the experiences of cohorts and communities in the online environment were vague and not easily replicable with the given details. This literature review reveals that doctoral students face social and emotional challenges related to isolation and the rigor of the academic process and lean on others for support to continue in their studies. Given the lack of current knowledge about online doctoral students, it proves to be a challenge to identify effective practices and create high-retention doctoral programs in online environments. The paucity of information combined with the dramatic transition to e-learning due to the global pandemic can provide a perfect storm for attrition in these programs. Several higher education institutions have transitioned graduate studies online, thus providing an opportunity for further exploration. Given the new necessity of online learning, this work provides insight into examining current practices in online doctoral programs that have moved to this modality during the pandemic. The significance of the literature review provides a springboard for research into online doctoral programs as the solution to continue advanced education amongst a global pandemic.

Keywords: e-learning, experiences, higher education, literature review

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Authors: Josiah O. Carter, Charlotte Hayden, Elizabeth Arthurs

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Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, hospital management policies have changed frequently and rapidly. This has created novel challenges in keeping the workforce abreast of these changes to enable them to deliver safe and effective care. Traditional communication methods, e.g. email, do not keep pace with the rapidly changing environment in the hospital, resulting in inaccurate, irrelevant, or outdated information being communicated, resulting in inefficiencies in patient care. Methods: The creation of a WhatsApp messaging group within the medical division at the Bristol Royal Infirmary has enabled senior clinicians and the hospital management team to update the medical workforce in real-time. It has two primary functions: (1) To enable dissemination of a concise, important operational summary. This comprises information on bed status and infection control procedural changes. It is fed directly from a daily critical incident briefing (2) To facilitate a monthly scheduled question and answer (Q&A) session for junior doctors to clarify issues with clinical directors, rota, and management staff. Additional ad-hoc updates are sent out for time-critical information; otherwise, it mainly functions as a broadcast-only group to prevent important information from being lost amongst other communication. All junior doctors within the medical division were invited to join the group. At present, the group comprises 131 participants, of which 10 are administrative staff (rota coordinators, management staff & clinical directors); the remaining 121 are junior clinicians working within the medical division. An electronic survey via Microsoft forms was sent out to junior doctors via the WhatsApp group and via email to assess its utilisation and effectiveness with the aim of quality improvements. Results: Of the 121 group participants, 19 completed the questionnaire (response rate 15.7%). Of these, 16/19 (84.2%) used it regularly, and 12/19 (63.2%) rated it as the most useful source for reliable updates relating to the hospital response to the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas only 2/19 (10.5%) found the trust intranet and the trust COVID-19 operational email update most useful. Respondents rated the WhatsApp group more useful as an information source (mean score 7.7/10) than as a means of providing feedback to management staff (mean score 6.3/10). Qualitative feedback suggested information around ward closures and changes to COVID cohorting, along with updates on staffing issues, were most useful. Respondents also noted the Q&A sessions were an efficient way of relaying feedback about management decisions but that it would be preferable if these sessions could be delivered more frequently. Discussion: During the current global COVID-19 pandemic, there is an increased need for rapid dissemination of critical information within NHS trusts; this includes communication between junior doctors, managers, and senior clinicians. The versatility of WhatsApp permits a variety of functions allowing for regular updates, the dissemination of time-critical information, and enables conversing and feedback. The project has demonstrated that reserved and well-managed use of a WhatsApp group is a welcome, efficient and practical means of communication between the senior management team and the junior medical workforce.

Keywords: communication, COVID-19, hospital management, WhatsApp

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey

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Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. According to the sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper on Climate Change and water, changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although many previous research carried on effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Keywords: climate change, downscaling, GCM, RCM

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Zicheng Zhang, Linli Zhang

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As China's biggest social media platform, Weibo has taken on essential health communication responsibilities during the pandemic. This research takes 105 posters in 15 health-related official Weibo accounts as the analysis objects to explore COVID19 health information communication and visualisation. First, the interaction between the audiences and Weibo, including forwarding, comments, and likes, is statistically analysed. The comments about the information design are extracted manually, and then the sentiment analysis is carried out to verdict audiences' views about the poster's design. The forwarding and comments are quantified as the attention index for a reference to the degree of likes. In addition, this study also designed an evaluation scale based on the standards of Health Literacy Resource by the Centers for Medicare& Medicaid Services (US). Then designers scored all selected posters one by one. Finally, combining the data of the two parts, concluded that: 1. To a certain extent, people think that the posters do not deliver substantive and practical information; 2. Non-knowledge posters(i.e., cartoon posters) gained more Forwarding and Likes, such as Go, Wuhan poster; 3. The analysis of COVID posters is still mainly picture-oriented, mainly about encouraging people to overcome difficulties; 4. Posters for pandemic prevention usually contain more text and fewer illustrations and do not clearly show cultural differences. In conclusion, health communication usually involves a lot of professional knowledge, so visualising that knowledge in an accessible way for the general public is challenging. The relevant posters still have the problems of lack of effective communication, superficial design, and insufficient content accessibility.

Keywords: weibo, visualisation, covid posters, poster design

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Marco Sewald

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Comparing present to past the numbers of Americans expatriating U. S. citizenship have risen. Even though these numbers are small compared to the immigrants, U. S. citizens expatriations have historically been much lower, making the uptick worrisome. In addition, the published lists and numbers from the U.S. government seems incomplete, with many not counted. Different branches of the U. S. government report different numbers and no one seems to know exactly how big the real number is, even though the IRS and the FBI both track and/or publish numbers of Americans who renounce. Since there is no single explanation, anecdotal evidence suggests this uptick is caused by global tax law and increased compliance burdens imposed by the U.S. lawmakers on U.S. citizens abroad. Within a research project the question arose about the reasons why a constant growing number of U.S. citizens are expatriating – the answers are believed helping to explain the underlying governmental policy rational, leading to such activities. While it is impossible to locate former U.S. citizens to conduct a survey on the reasons and the U.S. government is not commenting on the reasons given within the process of expatriation, the chosen methodology is Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), in the first step by re-using current surveys conducted by different researchers within the population of U. S. citizens residing abroad during the last years. Surveys questioning the personal situation in the context of tax, compliance, citizenship and likelihood to repatriate to the U. S. In general SEM allows: (1) Representing, estimating and validating a theoretical model with linear (unidirectional or not) relationships. (2) Modeling causal relationships between multiple predictors (exogenous) and multiple dependent variables (endogenous). (3) Including unobservable latent variables. (4) Modeling measurement error: the degree to which observable variables describe latent variables. Moreover SEM seems very appealing since the results can be represented either by matrix equations or graphically. Results: the observed variables (items) of the construct are caused by various latent variables. The given surveys delivered a high correlation and it is therefore impossible to identify the distinct effect of each indicator on the latent variable – which was one desired result. Since every SEM comprises two parts: (1) measurement model (outer model) and (2) structural model (inner model), it seems necessary to extend the given data by conducting additional research and surveys to validate the outer model to gain the desired results.

Keywords: expatriation of U. S. citizens, SEM, structural equation modeling, validating

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: Amina Merabet, Ali Iznasni, Abderrezzak Benhabib

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Impulse buying is of strategic importance to distributors. Currently, distribution companies rely heavily on contextual variables (music, smells, colors, sound, design ...) in order to push customers towards purchase and consumption. As such, a crucial way for commercial brands to increase sales is to stimulate impulse buying. For this reason, this study aims at identifying the factors that initiate and encourage impulse buying, as well as the levers that help distributors highlight effective marketing techniques in order to encourage consumers to make impulse purchase. Thus, we try to show, upon a field survey of 590 buyers, the impact of situational elements of both the store and the product on achieving impulse buying.

Keywords: Algerian shoppers, impulse buying, shopping environment, situational variables, product

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Dana El-Mughayyar, Neil Manson, Erin Bigney, Eden Richardson, Dean Tripp, Edward Abraham

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Use of narcotics to treat pain has increased over the past two decades and is a contributing factor to the current public health crisis. Understanding the pre-operative risks of chronic narcotic use may be aided through investigation of psychological measures. The objective of the reported study is to determine predictors of narcotic use two years post-surgery in a thoracolumbar spine surgery population, including an array of psychological factors. A prospective observational study of 191 consecutively enrolled adult patients having undergone thoracolumbar spine surgery is presented. Baseline measures of interest included the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia, Multidimensional Scale for Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), Chronic Pain Acceptance Questionnaire (CPAQ-8), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Numeric Rating Scales for back and leg pain (NRS-B/L), SF-12’s Mental Component Summary (MCS), narcotic use and demographic variables. The post-operative measure of interest is narcotic use at 2-year follow-up. Narcotic use is collapsed into binary categories of use and no use. Descriptive statistics are run. Chi Square analysis is used for categorical variables and an ANOVA for continuous variables. Significant variables are built into a hierarchical logistic regression to determine predictors of post-operative narcotic use. Significance is set at α < 0.05. Results: A total of 27.23% of the sample were using narcotics two years after surgery. The regression model included ODI, NRS-Leg, time with condition, chief complaint, pre-operative drug use, gender, MCS, PCS subscale helplessness, and CPAQ subscale pain willingness and was significant χ² (13, N=191)= 54.99; p = .000. The model accounted for 39.6% of the variance in narcotic use and correctly predicted in 79.7% of cases. Psychological variables accounted for 9.6% of the variance over and above the other predictors. Conclusions: Managing chronic narcotic usage is central to the patient’s overall health and quality of life. Psychological factors in the preoperative period are significant predictors of narcotic use 2 years post-operatively. The psychological variables are malleable, potentially allowing surgeons to direct their patients to preventative resources prior to surgery.

Keywords: narcotics, psychological factors, quality of life, spine surgery

Procedia PDF Downloads 132