Search results for: moving average model

Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.

Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Jiameng Wang, Yunfei Yin, Xiyu Deng

Abstract:

Parallel optimization is one of the important research topics of data mining at this stage. Taking Classification and Regression Tree (CART) parallelization as an example, this paper proposes a parallel data mining algorithm based on SSP-OGini-PCCP. Aiming at the problem of choosing the best CART segmentation point, this paper designs an S-SP model without data association; and in order to calculate the Gini index efficiently, a parallel OGini calculation method is designed. In addition, in order to improve the efficiency of the pruning algorithm, a synchronous PCCP pruning strategy is proposed in this paper. In this paper, the optimal segmentation calculation, Gini index calculation, and pruning algorithm are studied in depth. These are important components of parallel data mining. By constructing a distributed cluster simulation system based on SPARK, data mining methods based on SSP-OGini-PCCP are tested. Experimental results show that this method can increase the search efficiency of the best segmentation point by an average of 89%, increase the search efficiency of the Gini segmentation index by 3853%, and increase the pruning efficiency by 146% on average; and as the size of the data set increases, the performance of the algorithm remains stable, which meets the requirements of contemporary massive data processing.

Keywords: classification, Gini index, parallel data mining, pruning ahead

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Praveen Vayalamkuzhi, Veeraragavan Amirthalingam

Abstract:

Studies on safety on highways are becoming the need of the hour as over 400 lives are lost every day in India due to road crashes. In order to evaluate the factors that lead to different levels of crash severity, it is necessary to investigate the level of safety of highways and their relation to crashes. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify the factors that contribute to road crashes and to quantify their effect on the severity of road crashes. The study was carried out on a four-lane divided rural highway in India. The variables considered in the analysis includes components of horizontal alignment of highway, viz., straight or curve section; time of day, driveway density, presence of median; median opening; gradient; operating speed; and annual average daily traffic. These variables were considered after a preliminary analysis. The major complexities in the study are the heterogeneous traffic and the speed variation between different classes of vehicles along the highway. To quantify the impact of each of these factors, statistical analyses were carried out using Logit model and also negative binomial regression. The output from the statistical models proved that the variables viz., horizontal components of the highway alignment; driveway density; time of day; operating speed as well as annual average daily traffic show significant relation with the severity of crashes viz., fatal as well as injury crashes. Further, the annual average daily traffic has significant effect on the severity compared to other variables. The contribution of highway horizontal components on crash severity is also significant. Logit models can predict crashes better than the negative binomial regression models. The results of the study will help the transport planners to look into these aspects at the planning stage itself in the case of highways operated under heterogeneous traffic flow condition.

Keywords: geometric design, heterogeneous traffic, road crash, statistical analysis, level of safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Wesahl Domingo, Prinslean Mahery

Abstract:

Our paper focuses on the rights’ to contact and care of fathers in the heterosexual context, despite the reality of same sex parenting in South Africa. We argue that despite the new South African Children’s Act framework creating a shift from the idea of parental power over a child to the notion that parents have parental responsibilities and rights in respect of a child. This shift has however not fundamentally changed the constant battle that parents and other interested parties have over children. In most cases it is fathers who must battle to either maintain contact with their child/ren or fight to have care (which includes custody) of their child/ren. This is the case whether or not the father was married to the mother of the child in question. In part one of the paper, we deal with the historical development of rights to care and contact and describe the current system in the context of case law and legislation in South Africa. Part two provides a critical analysis of a few anthologies of “what fathers are complaining about.” In conclusion, in part three, we outline the way forward –“moving beyond the adversarial approach” through the “care of ethics approach.” So what is the care perspective? The care perspective is a relational ethic which views the primary moral concern as of creating and sustaining responsive connection to others. We apply the care of ethics approach to parenting plans and family law mediation in the context of fathers’ rights to care and contact. We argue by avoiding the adversarial system and engaging in a problem solving process focused on finding solutions for the future, divorcing parents can turn their attention to their children rather than battling each other.

Keywords: fathers' right to care, contact, custody, family law

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Jasper Kevin C. Dionisio, Denise Mae M. Unsay

Abstract:

In a manufacturing firm, controlling the process ensures that optimum efficiency, productivity, and quality in an organization are achieved. An operation with no standardized procedure yields a poor productivity, inefficiency, and an out of control process. This study focuses on controlling the small intestine processing of a chicken dressing plant through the use of Statistical Process Control (SPC). Since the operation does not employ a standard procedure and does not have an established standard time, the process through the assessment of the observed time of the overall operation of small intestine processing, through the use of X-Bar R Control Chart, is found to be out of control. In the solution of this problem, the researchers conduct a motion and time study aiming to establish a standard procedure for the operation. The normal operator was picked through the use of Westinghouse Rating System. Instead of utilizing the traditional motion and time study, the researchers used the X-Bar R Control Chart in determining the process average of the process that is used for establishing the standard time. The observed time of the normal operator was noted and plotted to the X-Bar R Control Chart. Out of control points that are due to assignable cause were removed and the process average, or the average time the normal operator conducted the process, which was already in control and free form any outliers, was obtained. The process average was then used in determining the standard time of small intestine processing. As a recommendation, the researchers suggest the implementation of the standard time established which is with consonance to the standard procedure which was adopted from the normal operator. With that recommendation, the whole operation will induce a 45.54 % increase in their productivity.

Keywords: motion and time study, process controlling, statistical process control, X-Bar R Control chart

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

Abstract:

Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Zahra Alipour, Amirreza Moheb Afzali

Abstract:

In the field of human-computer interaction (HCI), hand gestures play a crucial role in facilitating communication by expressing emotions and intentions. The precise tracking of the index finger and the estimation of joint positions are essential for developing effective gesture recognition systems. However, various challenges, such as anatomical variations, occlusions, and environmental influences, hinder optimal functionality. This study investigates the performance of the YOLOv8m model for hand detection using the EgoHands dataset, which comprises diverse hand gesture images captured in various environments. Over three training processes, the model demonstrated significant improvements in precision (from 88.8% to 96.1%) and recall (from 83.5% to 93.5%), achieving a mean average precision (mAP) of 97.3% at an IoU threshold of 0.7. We also compared YOLOv8m with MediaPipe and an integrated YOLOv8 + MediaPipe approach. The combined method outperformed the individual models, achieving an accuracy of 99% and a recall of 99%. These findings underscore the benefits of model integration in enhancing gesture recognition accuracy and localization for real-time applications. The results suggest promising avenues for future research in HCI, particularly in augmented reality and assistive technologies, where improved gesture recognition can significantly enhance user experience.

Keywords: YOLOv8, mediapipe, finger tracking, joint estimation, human-computer interaction (HCI)

Procedia PDF Downloads 5

Authors: Komal Saini, B. K. Sahoo, B.S. Bajwa

Abstract:

In the present study, indoor radon and thoron concentrations have been estimated using newly developed twin cup based pin hole dosimeter with single entry face in some areas of Punjab state, India. The equilibrium equivalent concentration (EEC) of radon and thoron has also been estimated directly by using progeny sensors, fabricated by BARC, India. Observed radon and thoron concentrations varied from 38.7±5.79 to 98.7±13.11 Bq/m3 and 25.38±6.56 to 126.56±14.23 Bq/m3 with an average value of 61.59±8.11 & 70.89±9.52 Bq/m3 respectively. Average equilibrium equivalent concentration of radon and thoron was 27.98±4.66 & 2.24±0.61 Bq/m3. Calculated equilibrium factor for radon and thoron was 0.467 and 0.034 in the present study. Annual inhalation dose calculated from the present observed concentrations, varied from 1.80 to 3.60 mSv/year with an average value of 2.52 mSv/year, which is well within reference level. It has been observed from the present study that thoron is a significant contributor to the inhalation dose which is about 25% of the total inhalation dose.

Keywords: radon, thoron, pin hole cup dosimeter, DTPS/DRPS, annual inhalation dose

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

Abstract:

In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

Procedia PDF Downloads 502

Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: K. G. Sorokozherdyev, E. A. Efimov

Abstract:

The socio-economic development of regions and countries is an important research issue. Today, in the face of many negative events in the global and regional economies, it is especially important to identify those areas that can serve as sources of economic growth and the basis for the well-being of the population. This study aims to identify the most important sectors of the economy of the Arkhangelsk region that can contribute to the socio-economic development of the region as a whole. For research, the Arkhangelsk region was taken as one of the typical Russian regions that do not have significant reserves of hydrocarbons nor there are located any large industrial complexes. In this regard, the question of possible origins of economic growth seems especially relevant. The basis of this study constitutes the distributed lag regression model (ADL model) developed by the authors, which is based on quarterly data on the socio-economic development of the Arkhangelsk region for the period 2004-2016. As a result, we obtained three equations reflecting the dynamics of three indicators of the socio-economic development of the region -the average wage, the regional GRP, and the birth rate. The influencing factors are the shares in GRP of such sectors as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, as well as the financial sector. The study showed that the greatest influence on the socio-economic development of the region is exerted by such industries as wholesale and retail trade, construction, and industrial sectors. The study can be the basis for forecasting and modeling the socio-economic development of the Arkhangelsk region in the short and medium term. It also can be helpful while analyzing the effectiveness of measures aimed at stimulating those or other industries of the region. The model can be used in developing a regional development strategy.

Keywords: regional economic development, regional sectoral structure, ADL model, Arkhangelsk region

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies

Abstract:

In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.

Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

Abstract:

In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Aneena Suresh, C. S. Sidharth

Abstract:

Drug related problems (DRPs) are common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients and end stage patients undergoing hemodialysis. To treat the co-morbid conditions of the patients, more complex therapeutic regimen is required, and it leads to development of DRPs. So, this calls for frequent monitoring of the patients. Due to the busy work schedules, physicians are unable to deliver optimal care to these patients. Addition of a clinical pharmacist in the team will improve the standard of care offered to CKD patients by minimizing DRPs. In India, the role of clinical pharmacists in the improving the health outcomes in CKD patients is poorly recognized. Therefore, this study is conducted to put an insight on the role of clinical pharmacist in improving Drug Related Problems in patients with chronic kidney disease, thereby helping them to achieve desired therapeutic outcomes in the patients. A prospective interventional study was conducted for a year in a 620 bedded tertiary care hospital in India. Data was collected using an unstructured questionnaire, medication charts, etc. DRPs were categorized using Hepler and Strand classification. Relationships between the age, weight, GFR, average no of medication taken, average no of comorbidities, and average length of hospital days with the DRPs were identified using Mann Whitney U test. The study population primarily constituted of patients above the age of 50 years with a mean age of 59.91±13.59. Our study showed that 25% of the population presented with DRPs. On an average, CKD patients are prescribed at least 8 medications for the treatment in our study. This explains the high incidence of drug interactions in patients suffering from CKD (45.65%). The least common DRPs in our study were found to be sub therapeutic dose (2%) and adverse drug reactions (2%). Out of this, 60 % of the DRPs were addressed successfully. In our study, there is an association between the DRPs with the average number of medications prescribed, the average number of comorbidities, and the length of the hospital days with p value of 0.022, 0.004, and 0.000, respectively. In the current study, 86% of the proposed interventions were accepted, and 41 % were implemented by the physician, and only 14% were rejected. Hence, it is evident that clinical pharmacist interventions will contribute significantly to diminish the DRPs in CKD patients, thereby decreasing the economic burden of healthcare costs and improving patient’s quality of life.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, clinical pharmacist, drug related problem, intervention

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Wennan Long, Yuhao Nie, Yunan Li, Adam Brandt

Abstract:

To fight against climate change, California government issued the Senate Bill No. 100 (SB-100) in 2018 September, which aims at achieving a target of 100% renewable electricity by the end of 2045. A capacity expansion problem is solved in this case study using a binary quadratic programming model. The optimal locations and capacities of the potential renewable power plants (i.e., solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and hydropower), the phase-out schedule of existing fossil-based (nature gas) power plants and the transmission of electricity across the entire network are determined with the minimal total annualized cost measured by net present value (NPV). The results show that the renewable electricity contribution could increase to 85.9% by 2030 and reach 100% by 2035. Fossil-based power plants will be totally phased out around 2035 and solar and wind will finally become the most dominant renewable energy resource in California electricity mix.

Keywords: 100% renewable electricity, California, capacity expansion, mixed integer non-linear programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Hamil Uribe, Cristian Arancibia

Abstract:

In Chile, the water for irrigation and hydropower generation is delivery essentially through unlined channels on earth, which have high seepage losses. Traditional seepage-abatement technologies are very expensive. The goals of this work were to quantify water loss in unlined channels and select reaches to evaluate the use of linear anionic polyacrylamide (LA-PAM) to reduce seepage losses. The study was carried out in Maule Region, central area of Chile. Water users indicated reaches with potential seepage losses, 45 km of channels in total, whose flow varied between 1.07 and 23.6 m³ s⁻¹. According to seepage measurements, 4 reaches of channels, 4.5 km in total, were selected for LA-PAM application. One to 4 LA-PAM applications were performed at rates of 11 kg ha⁻¹, considering wet perimeter area as basis of calculation. Large channels were used to allow motorboat moving against the current to carry-out LA-PAM application. For applications, a seeder machine was used to evenly distribute granulated polymer on water surface. Water flow was measured (StreamPro ADCP) upstream and downstream in selected reaches, to estimate seepage losses before and after LA-PAM application. Weekly measurements were made to quantify treatment effect and duration. In each case, water turbidity and temperature were measured. Channels showed variable losses up to 13.5%. Channels showing water gains were not treated with PAM. In all cases, LA-PAM effect was positive, achieving average loss reductions of 8% to 3.1%. Water loss was confirmed and it was possible to reduce seepage through LA-PAM applications provided that losses were known and correctly determined when applying the polymer. This could allow increasing irrigation security in critical periods, especially under drought conditions.

Keywords: canal seepage, irrigation, polyacrylamide, water management

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Coskun Serefoglu

Abstract:

The study aims to analyse how a traditional sector such as agri-food could be mobilized through regional innovation strategies. A principal component analysis as well as qualitative information, such as in-depth interviews, focus group and surveys, were employed to find the priority sectors. An agri-food model was developed which includes both a linear model and interactive model. The model consists of two main components, one of which is technological integration and the other one is agricultural extension which is based on Land-grant university approach of U.S. which is not a common practice in Turkey.

Keywords: regional innovation strategy, interactive model, agri-food sector, local development, planning, regional development

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Xianping Du, Runlu Miao, Guanjun Zhang, Libo Cao, Feng Zhu

Abstract:

Current vehicle safety standards and human body injury criteria were established based on the biomechanical response of Euro-American human body, without considering the difference in the body anthropometry and injury characteristics among different races, particularly the East Asian people with smaller body size. Absence of such race specific design considerations will negatively influence the protective performance of safety products for these populations, and weaken the accuracy of injury thresholds derived. To resolve these issues, in this study, we aim to develop a race specific finite element model to simulate the impact response of the lower extremity of a 50th percentile East Asian (Chinese) male. The model was built based on medical images for the leg of an average size Chinese male and slightly adjusted based on the statistical data. The model includes detailed anatomic features and is able to simulate the muscle active force. Thirteen biomechanical tests available in the literature were used to validate its biofidelity. Using the validated model, a pedestrian-car impact accident taking place in China was re-constructed computationally. The results show that the newly developed lower leg model has a good performance in predicting dynamic response and tibia fracture pattern. An additional comparison on the fracture tolerance of the East Asian and Euro-American lower limb suggests that the current injury criterion underestimates the degree of injury of East Asian human body.

Keywords: lower limb, East Asian body characteristics, traffic accident reconstruction, finite element analysis, injury tolerance

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Sasiporn Rattanasupha, Settapat Chinviriyasit

Abstract:

The treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals increases and the medical condition is limited. In this paper, the SEIR epidemic model with treatment function is studied to investigate the dynamics of the model due to the effect of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infective patients. The stability of the model is analyzed. The model is simulated to illustrate the analytical results and to investigate the effects of treatment on the spread of infection.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, local stability, SEIR epidemic model, treatment function

Procedia PDF Downloads 521

Authors: M. R. Naroui Rad, A. Ghalandarzehi, J. A. Koohpayegani

Abstract:

Nine advanced cultivars and lines were planted in transplant trays on March, 2013. In mid-April 2014, nine cultivars and lines were taken from the seedling trays and were evaluated and compared in an experiment in form of a completely randomized block design with three replications at the Agricultural Research Station, Zahak. The results of the analysis of variance showed that there was a significant difference between the studied cultivars in terms of average fruit weight, fruit length, fruit diameter, ratio of fruit length to its diameter, the relative number of seeds per fruit, and each plant yield. The total yield of Sohrab and Y6 line with and an average of 41.9 and 36.7 t/ ha allocated the highest yield respectively to themselves. The results of simple correlation between the analyzed traits showed the final yield was affected by the average fruit weight due to direct and indirect effects of fruit weight and plant yield on the final yield. The genotypic and heritability values were high for fruit weight, fruit length and number of seed per fruit. The first two principal components accounted for 81.6% of the total variation among the characters describing genotypes.

Keywords: eggplant, principal component, variation, path analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Mokhtar Kouki Inès Rekik

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the assessment of the air pollution and morbidity relationship in Tunisia. Air pollution is measured by ozone air concentration and the morbidity is measured by the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days during the 2-week period prior to the interview. Socioeconomic data are also collected in order to adjust for any confounding covariates. Our sample is composed by 407 Tunisian respondents; 44.7% are women, the average age is 35.2, near 69% are living in a house built after the 1980, and 27.8% have reported at least one day of respiratory-related restricted activity. The model consists on the regression of the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days on the air quality measure and the socioeconomic covariates. In order to correct for zero-inflation and heterogeneity, we estimate several models (Poisson, Negative binomial, Zero inflated Poisson, Poisson hurdle, Negative binomial hurdle and finite mixture Poisson models). Bootstrapping and post-stratification techniques are used in order to correct for any sample bias. According to the Akaike information criteria, the hurdle negative binomial model has the greatest goodness of fit. The main result indicates that, after adjusting for socioeconomic data, the ozone concentration increases the probability of positive number of restricted activity days.

Keywords: bootstrapping, hurdle negbin model, overdispersion, ozone concentration, respiratory-related restricted activity days

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

Abstract:

Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy (ECRGE) strategy focuses mainly on generating and proper utilization of renewable energy (RE). Nonetheless, the current electricity generation of the country is dominated by hydropower. The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources from solar and wind energy were only 8 %. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36.1 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the EnergyPLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EnergyPLAN (EP) analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EP simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EP simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). The outcome of the model also showed that in the dry seasons of the year, there would be excess power production in the country. Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EP indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that if the excess power is utilized with a storage system, it can stabilize the grid system and be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming storage system to synchronize with potentials that can be generated from renewable energy.

Keywords: renewable energy, power, storage, wind, energy plan

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Muhammad Jahanzaib, Muhammad Z. A. Khan, Junaid Khayyam

Abstract:

Islamabad is the capital of Pakistan with the population of 1.365 million people and with a vehicular fleet size of 0.75 million. The vehicular fleet size is growing annually by the rate of 11%. Vehicular emissions are major source of Black carbon (BC). In developing countries like Pakistan, most of the vehicles consume conventional fuels like Petrol, Diesel, and CNG. These fuels are the major emitters of pollutants like CO, CO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and particulate matter (PM10). Carbon dioxide and methane are the leading contributor to the global warming with a global share of 9-26% and 4-9% respectively. NOx is the precursor of nitrates which ultimately form aerosols that are noxious to human health. In this study, COPERT (Computer program to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport) was used for vehicular emission estimation in Islamabad. COPERT is a windows based program which is developed for the calculation of emissions from the road transport sector. The emissions were calculated for the year of 2016 include pollutants like CO, NOx, VOC, and PM and energy consumption. The different variable was input to the model for emission estimation including meteorological parameters, average vehicular trip length and respective time duration, fleet configuration, activity data, degradation factor, and fuel effect. The estimated emissions for CO, CH4, CO2, NOx, and PM10 were found to be 9814.2, 44.9, 279196.7, 3744.2 and 304.5 tons respectively.

Keywords: COPERT Model, emission estimation, PM10, vehicular emission

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Aadhya Kaul, Gautam Manocha, Preeti Nagrath

Abstract:

Our environment comprises of a wide variety of plants that are similar to each other and sometimes the similarity between the plants makes the identification process tedious thus increasing the workload of the botanist all over the world. Now all the botanists cannot be accessible all the time for such laborious plant identification; therefore, there is an urge for a quick classification model. Also, along with the identification of the plants, it is also necessary to classify the plant as healthy or not as for a good lifestyle, humans require good food and this food comes from healthy plants. A large number of techniques have been applied to classify the plants as healthy or diseased in order to provide the solution. This paper proposes one such method known as anomaly detection using autoencoders using a set of collections of leaves. In this method, an autoencoder model is built using Keras and then the reconstruction of the original images of the leaves is done and the threshold loss is found in order to classify the plant leaves as healthy or diseased. A dataset of plant leaves is considered to judge the reconstructed performance by convolutional autoencoders and the average accuracy obtained is 71.55% for the purpose.

Keywords: convolutional autoencoder, anomaly detection, web application, FLASK

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Tesfay Gebremicheal Reda, K. Samatha, Paul Douglas Sanasi, D. Parajuli

Abstract:

Nanoparticle technology is fast progressing and is being employed in innumerable medical applications. At this time, the public's health is seriously threatened by the rise of bacterial strains resistant to several medications. Metal nanoparticles are a potential alternate approach for tackling this global concern, and this is the main focus of this study. The citrate precursor sol-gel synthesis method was used to synthesize the Niₓ Co₁₋ₓ Fe₂ O₄, (where x = 0.0:0.2:1.0) nanoparticle. XRD identified the development of the cubic crystal structure to have a preferential orientation along (311), and the average particle size was found to be 29-38 nm. The average crystallizes assessed with ImageJ software and origin 22 of the SEM are nearly identical to the XRD results. In the created NCF NPs, the FT-IR spectroscopy reveals structural examinations and the redistribution of cations between octahedral (505-428 cm⁻¹) and tetrahedral (653-603 cm⁻¹) locales. As the Co²⁺ cation is substituted with Ni²⁺, the coercive fields HC decrease from 2384 Oe to 241.93 Oe. Band gap energy rises as Ni concentration increases, which may be attributed to the fact that the ionic radii of Ni²⁺ ions are smaller than that of Co²⁺ ions, which results in a strong electrostatic interaction. On the contrary, except at x = 0.4, the dielectric constant decreases as the nickel concentration increases. According to the findings of this research work, nanoparticles are composed of Ni₀.₄ Co₀.₆ Fe₂ O₄ have demonstrated a promising value against S. aureus and E. coli, and it suggests a proposed model for their potential use as a source of antibacterial agent.

Keywords: antimicrobial, band gap, citrate precursor, dielectric, nanoparticle

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

Abstract:

Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: M. S. Maglasang, S. O. Palacio, L. P. Ogdoc

Abstract:

Business Process Outsourcing has been one of the fastest growing and emerging industry in the Philippines today. Unlike most of the contact service centers, more popularly known as "call centers", The BPO Industry’s primary outsourced service is performing audits of the global clients' logistics. As a service industry, manpower is considered as the most important yet the most expensive resource in the company. Because of this, there is a need to maximize the human resources so people are effectively and efficiently utilized. The main purpose of the study is to optimize the current manpower resources through effective distribution and assignment of different types of bills to the different skill-level of data entry operators. The assignment model parameters include the average observed time matrix gathered from through time study, which incorporates the learning curve concept. Subsequently, a simulation model was made to duplicate the arrival rate of demand which includes the different batches and types of bill per day. Next, a mathematical linear programming model was formulated. Its objective is to minimize direct labor cost per bill by allocating the different types of bills to the different skill-levels of operators. Finally, a hypothesis test was done to validate the model, comparing the actual and simulated results. The analysis of results revealed that the there’s low utilization of effective capacity because of its failure to determine the product-mix, skill-mix, and simulated demand as model parameters. Moreover, failure to consider the effects of learning curve leads to overestimation of labor needs. From 107 current number of operators, the proposed model gives a result of 79 operators. This results to an increase of utilization of effective capacity to 14.94%. It is recommended that the excess 28 operators would be reallocated to the other areas of the department. Finally, a manpower capacity planning model is also recommended in support to management’s decisions on what to do when the current capacity would reach its limit with the expected increasing demand.

Keywords: optimization modelling, linear programming, simulation, time and motion study, capacity planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 518

Authors: Gebremedhin Kiros, Amba Shetty, Lakshman Nandagiri

Abstract:

Soil erosion is a major threat to the sustainability of land and water resources in the catchment and there is a need to identify critical areas of erosion so that suitable conservation measures may be adopted. The present study was taken up to understand the temporal and spatial distribution of soil erosion and daily sediment yield in Geba catchment (5137 km2) located in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Geba catchment using data pertaining to rainfall, climate, soils, topography and land use/land cover (LU/LC) for the historical period 2000-2013. LU/LC distribution in the catchment was characterized using LANDSAT satellite imagery and the GIS-based ArcSWAT version of the model. The model was calibrated and validated using sediment concentration measurements made at the catchment outlet. The catchment was divided into 13 sub-basins and based on estimated soil erosion, these were prioritized on the basis of susceptibility to soil erosion. Model results indicated that the average sediment yield estimated of the catchment was 12.23 tons/ha/yr. The generated soil loss map indicated that a large portion of the catchment has high erosion rates resulting in significantly large sediment yield at the outlet. Steep and unstable terrain, the occurrence of highly erodible soils and low vegetation cover appeared to favor high soil erosion. Results obtained from this study prove useful in adopting in targeted soil and water conservation measures and promote sustainable management of natural resources in the Geba and similar catchments in the region.

Keywords: Ethiopia, Geba catchment, MUSLE, sediment yield, SWAT Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Maged A. Mogalli, Abdullah I. Al-Mansour, Seongkwan Mark Lee

Abstract:

In the last decades, population growth has gradually exceeded transportation infrastructure growth, and today’s transportation professionals are facing challenge on how to meet the mobility needs of a rising population especially in the absence of adequate public transport, as is the case in Saudi Arabia. The traffic movement congestion can be decreased by carrying out some appropriate alternative designs of interchanges such as diverging diamond interchange (DDI) and single diamond interchange (SPDI). In this paper, evaluation of newly implemented DDIs at the interchange of Makkah road with Prince Turki road and the interchange of King Khaled road with Prince Saud Ibn Mohammed Ibn Mugrin road in Riyadh city was carried out. The comparison between the DDI and SPDI is conducted by evaluating different measures of effectiveness (MOE) such as stop delay, average queue length, and number of stops. In this connection, each interchange type was evaluated for traffic flow at peak hours using micro-simulation program namely 'Synchro/SimTarffic' to measure its effectiveness such as stop delay, average queue length, and number of stops. The results of this study show that DDI provides a better result when compared with SPDI in terms of stope delay, average queue length, and number of stops. The stop delay for the SPDI is greater than DDI by three times. Also, the average queue length is approximately twice that of the SPDI when compared to the DDI. Furthermore, the number of stops for the SPDI is about twice as the DDI.

Keywords: single point diamond interchange, diverging diamond interchange, measures of effectiveness, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Rakesh Kumar Mishra, Tarun Kumar Dan

Abstract:

Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control method is proposed based on Internal Model Control (IMC) strategy. In this paper, we have designed the Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control for binary distillation column for SISO process (considering only bottom product). The transfer function has been taken from Wood and Berry model. We have find the composition control and disturbance rejection using Lead-Lag based IMC and comparing with the response of simple Internal Model Controller.

Keywords: SISO, lead-lag, internal model control, wood and berry, distillation column

Procedia PDF Downloads 646