Search results for: online behavior
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8608

Search results for: online behavior

1318 Econophysical Approach on Predictability of Financial Crisis: The 2001 Crisis of Turkey and Argentina Case

Authors: Arzu K. Kamberli, Tolga Ulusoy

Abstract:

Technological developments and the resulting global communication have made the 21st century when large capitals are moved from one end to the other via a button. As a result, the flow of capital inflows has accelerated, and capital inflow has brought with it crisis-related infectiousness. Considering the irrational human behavior, the financial crisis in the world under the influence of the whole world has turned into the basic problem of the countries and increased the interest of the researchers in the reasons of the crisis and the period in which they lived. Therefore, the complex nature of the financial crises and its linearly unexplained structure have also been included in the new discipline, econophysics. As it is known, although financial crises have prediction mechanisms, there is no definite information. In this context, in this study, using the concept of electric field from the electrostatic part of physics, an early econophysical approach for global financial crises was studied. The aim is to define a model that can take place before the financial crises, identify financial fragility at an earlier stage and help public and private sector members, policy makers and economists with an econophysical approach. 2001 Turkey crisis has been assessed with data from Turkish Central Bank which is covered between 1992 to 2007, and for 2001 Argentina crisis, data was taken from IMF and the Central Bank of Argentina from 1997 to 2007. As an econophysical method, an analogy is used between the Gauss's law used in the calculation of the electric field and the forecasting of the financial crisis. The concept of Φ (Financial Flux) has been adopted for the pre-warning of the crisis by taking advantage of this analogy, which is based on currency movements and money mobility. For the first time used in this study Φ (Financial Flux) calculations obtained by the formula were analyzed by Matlab software, and in this context, in 2001 Turkey and Argentina Crisis for Φ (Financial Flux) crisis of values has been confirmed to give pre-warning.

Keywords: econophysics, financial crisis, Gauss's Law, physics

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1317 Analysis of Rural Roads in Developing Countries Using Principal Component Analysis and Simple Average Technique in the Development of a Road Safety Performance Index

Authors: Muhammad Tufail, Jawad Hussain, Hammad Hussain, Imran Hafeez, Naveed Ahmad

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Road safety performance index is a composite index which combines various indicators of road safety into single number. Development of a road safety performance index using appropriate safety performance indicators is essential to enhance road safety. However, a road safety performance index in developing countries has not been given as much priority as needed. The primary objective of this research is to develop a general Road Safety Performance Index (RSPI) for developing countries based on the facility as well as behavior of road user. The secondary objectives include finding the critical inputs in the RSPI and finding the better method of making the index. In this study, the RSPI is developed by selecting four main safety performance indicators i.e., protective system (seat belt, helmet etc.), road (road width, signalized intersections, number of lanes, speed limit), number of pedestrians, and number of vehicles. Data on these four safety performance indicators were collected using observation survey on a 20 km road section of the National Highway N-125 road Taxila, Pakistan. For the development of this composite index, two methods are used: a) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and b) Equal Weighting (EW) method. PCA is used for extraction, weighting, and linear aggregation of indicators to obtain a single value. An individual index score was calculated for each road section by multiplication of weights and standardized values of each safety performance indicator. However, Simple Average technique was used for weighting and linear aggregation of indicators to develop a RSPI. The road sections are ranked according to RSPI scores using both methods. The two weighting methods are compared, and the PCA method is found to be much more reliable than the Simple Average Technique.

Keywords: indicators, aggregation, principle component analysis, weighting, index score

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1316 Numerical Simulation of Flexural Strength of Steel Fiber Reinforced High Volume Fly Ash Concrete by Finite Element Analysis

Authors: Mahzabin Afroz, Indubhushan Patnaikuni, Srikanth Venkatesan

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It is well-known that fly ash can be used in high volume as a partial replacement of cement to get beneficial effects on concrete. High volume fly ash (HVFA) concrete is currently emerging as a popular option to strengthen by fiber. Although studies have supported the use of fibers with fly ash, a unified model along with the incorporation into finite element software package to estimate the maximum flexural loads need to be developed. In this study, nonlinear finite element analysis of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete beam under static loadings was conducted to investigate their failure modes in terms of ultimate load. First of all, the experimental investigation of mechanical properties of high strength HVFA concrete was done and validates with developed numerical model with the appropriate modeling of element size and mesh by ANSYS 16.2. To model the fiber within the concrete, three-dimensional random fiber distribution was simulated by spherical coordinate system. Three types of high strength HVFA concrete beams were analyzed reinforced with 0.5, 1 and 1.5% volume fractions of steel fibers with specific mechanical and physical properties. The result reveals that the use of nonlinear finite element analysis technique and three-dimensional random fiber orientation exhibited fairly good agreement with the experimental results of flexural strength, load deflection and crack propagation mechanism. By utilizing this improved model, it is possible to determine the flexural behavior of different types and proportions of steel fiber reinforced HVFA concrete beam under static load. So, this paper has the originality to predict the flexural properties of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete by numerical simulations.

Keywords: finite element analysis, high volume fly ash, steel fibers, spherical coordinate system

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1315 Discrete-Event Modeling and Simulation Methodologies: Past, Present and Future

Authors: Gabriel Wainer

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Modeling and Simulation methods have been used to better analyze the behavior of complex physical systems, and it is now common to use simulation as a part of the scientific and technological discovery process. M&S advanced thanks to the improvements in computer technology, which, in many cases, resulted in the development of simulation software using ad-hoc techniques. Formal M&S appeared in order to try to improve the development task of very complex simulation systems. Some of these techniques proved to be successful in providing a sound base for the development of discrete-event simulation models, improving the ease of model definition and enhancing the application development tasks; reducing costs and favoring reuse. The DEVS formalism is one of these techniques, which proved to be successful in providing means for modeling while reducing development complexity and costs. DEVS model development is based on a sound theoretical framework. The independence of M&S tasks made possible to run DEVS models on different environments (personal computers, parallel computers, real-time equipment, and distributed simulators) and middleware. We will present a historical perspective of discrete-event M&S methodologies, showing different modeling techniques. We will introduce DEVS origins and general ideas, and compare it with some of these techniques. We will then show the current status of DEVS M&S, and we will discuss a technological perspective to solve current M&S problems (including real-time simulation, interoperability, and model-centered development techniques). We will show some examples of the current use of DEVS, including applications in different fields. We will finally show current open topics in the area, which include advanced methods for centralized, parallel or distributed simulation, the need for real-time modeling techniques, and our view in these fields.

Keywords: modeling and simulation, discrete-event simulation, hybrid systems modeling, parallel and distributed simulation

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1314 Simulation and Performance Evaluation of Transmission Lines with Shield Wire Segmentation against Atmospheric Discharges Using ATPDraw

Authors: Marcio S. da Silva, Jose Mauricio de B. Bezerra, Antonio E. de A. Nogueira

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This paper aims to make a performance analysis of shield wire transmission lines against atmospheric discharges when it is made the option of sectioning the shield wire and verify if the tolerability of the change. As a goal of this work, it was established to make complete modeling of a transmission line in the ATPDraw program with shield wire grounded in all the towers and in some towers. The methodology used to make the proposed evaluation was to choose an actual transmission line that served as a case study. From the choice of transmission line and verification of all its topology and materials, complete modeling of the line using the ATPDraw software was performed. Then several atmospheric discharges were simulated by striking the grounded shield wires in each tower. These simulations served to identify the behavior of the existing line against atmospheric discharges. After this first analysis, the same line was reconsidered with shield wire segmentation. The shielding wire segmentation technique aims to reduce induced losses in shield wires and is adopted in some transmission lines in Brazil. With the same conditions of atmospheric discharge the transmission line, this time with shield wire segmentation was again evaluated. The results obtained showed that it is possible to obtain similar performances against atmospheric discharges between a shield wired line in multiple towers and the same line with shield wire segmentation if some precautions are adopted as verification of the ground resistance of the wire segmented shield, adequacy of the maximum length of the segmented gap, evaluation of the separation length of the electrodes of the insulator spark, among others. As a conclusion, it is verified that since the correct assessment and adopted the correct criteria of adjustment a transmission line with shielded wire segmentation can perform very similar to the traditional use with multiple earths. This solution contributes in a very important way to the reduction of energy losses in transmission lines.

Keywords: atmospheric discharges, ATPDraw, shield wire, transmission lines

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1313 Study of Mobile Game Addiction Using Electroencephalography Data Analysis

Authors: Arsalan Ansari, Muhammad Dawood Idrees, Maria Hafeez

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Use of mobile phones has been increasing considerably over the past decade. Currently, it is one of the main sources of communication and information. Initially, mobile phones were limited to calls and messages, but with the advent of new technology smart phones were being used for many other purposes including video games. Despite of positive outcomes, addiction to video games on mobile phone has become a leading cause of psychological and physiological problems among many people. Several researchers examined the different aspects of behavior addiction with the use of different scales. Objective of this study is to examine any distinction between mobile game addicted and non-addicted players with the use of electroencephalography (EEG), based upon psycho-physiological indicators. The mobile players were asked to play a mobile game and EEG signals were recorded by BIOPAC equipment with AcqKnowledge as data acquisition software. Electrodes were places, following the 10-20 system. EEG was recorded at sampling rate of 200 samples/sec (12,000samples/min). EEG recordings were obtained from the frontal (Fp1, Fp2), parietal (P3, P4), and occipital (O1, O2) lobes of the brain. The frontal lobe is associated with behavioral control, personality, and emotions. The parietal lobe is involved in perception, understanding logic, and arithmetic. The occipital lobe plays a role in visual tasks. For this study, a 60 second time window was chosen for analysis. Preliminary analysis of the signals was carried out with Acqknowledge software of BIOPAC Systems. From the survey based on CGS manual study 2010, it was concluded that five participants out of fifteen were in addictive category. This was used as prior information to group the addicted and non-addicted by physiological analysis. Statistical analysis showed that by applying clustering analysis technique authors were able to categorize the addicted and non-addicted players specifically on theta frequency range of occipital area.

Keywords: mobile game, addiction, psycho-physiology, EEG analysis

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1312 The Axonal Connectivity of Motor and Premotor Areas as Revealed through Fiber Dissections: Shedding Light on the Structural Correlates of Complex Motor Behavior

Authors: Spyridon Komaitis, Christos Koutsarnakis, Evangelos Drosos, Aristotelis Kalyvas

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This study opts to investigate the intrinsic architecture, morphology, and spatial relationship of the subcortical pathways implicated in the connectivity of the motor/premotor cortex and SMA/pre-SMA complex. Twenty normal, adult, formalin-fixed cerebral hemispheres were explored through the fiber micro-dissection technique. Lateral to medial and medial to lateral dissections focused on the area of interest were performed in a tandem manner and under the surgical microscope. We traced the subcortical architecture, spatial relationships, and axonal connectivity of four major pathways: a) the dorsal component of the SLF (SLF-I) was found to reside in the medial aspect of the hemisphere and seen to connect the precuneus with the SMA and pre-SMA complex, b) the frontal longitudinal system (FLS) was consistently encountered as the natural anterior continuation of the SLF-II and SLF-III and connected the premotor and prefrontal cortices c) the fronto-caudate tract (FCT), a fan-shaped tract, was documented to participate in connectivity of the prefrontal and premotor cortices to the head and body of the caudate nucleus and d) the cortico-tegmental tract(CTT) was invariably recorded to subserve the connectivity of the tegmental area with the fronto-parietal cortex. No hemispheric asymmetries were recorded for any of the implicated pathways. Sub-segmentation systems were also proposed for each of the aforementioned tracts. The structural connectivity and functional specialization of motor and premotor areas in the human brain remain vague to this day as most of the available evidence derives either from animal or tractographic studies. By using the fiber-microdissection technique as our main method of investigation, we provide sound structural evidence on the delicate anatomy of the related white matter pathways.

Keywords: neuroanatomy, premotor, motor, connectivity

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1311 Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation of a Boiler Outlet Header Constructed of Inconel Alloy 740H

Authors: Sherman Ho, Ahmed Cherif Megri

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Headers play a critical role in conveying steam to regulate heating system temperatures. While various materials like steel grades 91 and 92 have been traditionally used for pipes, this research proposes the use of a robust and innovative material, INCONEL Alloy 740H. Boilers in power plant configurations are exposed to cycling conditions due to factors such as daily, seasonal, and yearly variations in weather. These cycling conditions can lead to the deterioration of headers, which are vital components with intricate geometries. Header failures result in substantial financial losses from repair costs and power plant shutdowns, along with significant public inconveniences such as the loss of heating and hot water. To address this issue and seek solutions, a mechanical analysis, as well as a structural analysis, are recommended. Transient analysis to predict heat transfer conditions is of paramount importance, as the direction of heat transfer within the header walls and the passing steam can vary based on the location of interest, load, and operating conditions. The geometry and material of the header are also crucial design factors, and the choice of pipe material depends on its usage. In this context, the heat transfer coefficient plays a vital role in header design and analysis. This research employs ANSYS Fluent, a numerical simulation program, to understand header behavior, predict heat transfer, and analyze mechanical phenomena within the header. Transient simulations are conducted to investigate parameters like heat transfer coefficient, pressure loss coefficients, and heat flux, with the results used to optimize header design.

Keywords: CFD, header, power plant, heat transfer coefficient, simulation using experimental data

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1310 Adhesive Bonded Joints Characterization and Crack Propagation in Composite Materials under Cyclic Impact Fatigue and Constant Amplitude Fatigue Loadings

Authors: Andres Bautista, Alicia Porras, Juan P. Casas, Maribel Silva

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The Colombian aeronautical industry has stimulated research in the mechanical behavior of materials under different loading conditions aircrafts are generally exposed during its operation. The Calima T-90 is the first military aircraft built in the country, used for primary flight training of Colombian Air Force Pilots, therefore, it may be exposed to adverse operating situations such as hard landings which cause impact loads on the aircraft that might produce the impact fatigue phenomenon. The Calima T-90 structure is mainly manufactured by composites materials generating assemblies and subassemblies of different components of it. The main method of bonding these components is by using adhesive joints. Each type of adhesive bond must be studied on its own since its performance depends on the conditions of the manufacturing process and operating characteristics. This study aims to characterize the typical adhesive joints of the aircraft under usual loads. To this purpose, the evaluation of the effect of adhesive thickness on the mechanical performance of the joint under quasi-static loading conditions, constant amplitude fatigue and cyclic impact fatigue using single lap-joint specimens will be performed. Additionally, using a double cantilever beam specimen, the influence of the thickness of the adhesive on the crack growth rate for mode I delamination failure, as a function of the critical energy release rate will be determined. Finally, an analysis of the fracture surface of the test specimens considering the mechanical interaction between the substrate (composite) and the adhesive, provide insights into the magnitude of the damage, the type of failure mechanism that occurs and its correlation with the way crack propagates under the proposed loading conditions.

Keywords: adhesive, composites, crack propagation, fatigue

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1309 Four-Way Coupled CFD-Dem Simulation of Concrete Pipe Flow Using a Non-Newtonian Rheological Model: Investigating the Simulation of Lubrication Layer Formation and Plug Flow Zones

Authors: Tooran Tavangar, Masoud Hosseinpoor, Jeffrey S. Marshall, Ammar Yahia, Kamal Henri Khayat

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In this study, a four-way coupled CFD-DEM methodology was used to simulate the behavior of concrete pipe flow. Fresh concrete, characterized as a biphasic suspension, features aggregates comprising the solid-suspended phase with diverse particle-size distributions (PSD) within a non-Newtonian cement paste/mortar matrix forming the liquid phase. The fluid phase was simulated using CFD, while the aggregates were modeled using DEM. Interaction forces between the fluid and solid particles were considered through CFD-DEM computations. To capture the viscoelastic characteristics of the suspending fluid, a bi-viscous approach was adopted, incorporating a critical shear rate proportional to the yield stress of the mortar. In total, three diphasic suspensions were simulated, each featuring distinct particle size distributions and a concentration of 10% for five subclasses of spherical particles ranging from 1 to 17 mm in a suspending fluid. The adopted bi-viscous approach successfully simulated both un-sheared (plug flow) and sheared zones. Furthermore, shear-induced particle migration (SIPM) was assessed by examining coefficients of variation in particle concentration across the pipe. These SIPM values were then compared with results obtained using CFD-DEM under the Newtonian assumption. The study highlighted the crucial role of yield stress in the mortar phase, revealing that lower yield stress values can lead to increased flow rates and higher SIPM across the pipe.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, concrete pumping, coupled CFD-DEM, discrete element method, plug flow, shear-induced particle migration.

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1308 Modeling of Bipolar Charge Transport through Nanocomposite Films for Energy Storage

Authors: Meng H. Lean, Wei-Ping L. Chu

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The effects of ferroelectric nanofiller size, shape, loading, and polarization, on bipolar charge injection, transport, and recombination through amorphous and semicrystalline polymers are studied. A 3D particle-in-cell model extends the classical electrical double layer representation to treat ferroelectric nanoparticles. Metal-polymer charge injection assumes Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, migration through field-dependent Poole-Frenkel mobility, and recombination with Monte Carlo selection based on collision probability. A boundary integral equation method is used for solution of the Poisson equation coupled with a second-order predictor-corrector scheme for robust time integration of the equations of motion. The stability criterion of the explicit algorithm conforms to the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy limit. Trajectories for charge that make it through the film are curvilinear paths that meander through the interspaces. Results indicate that charge transport behavior depends on nanoparticle polarization with anti-parallel orientation showing the highest leakage conduction and lowest level of charge trapping in the interaction zone. Simulation prediction of a size range of 80 to 100 nm to minimize attachment and maximize conduction is validated by theory. Attached charge fractions go from 2.2% to 97% as nanofiller size is decreased from 150 nm to 60 nm. Computed conductivity of 0.4 x 1014 S/cm is in agreement with published data for plastics. Charge attachment is increased with spheroids due to the increase in surface area, and especially so for oblate spheroids showing the influence of larger cross-sections. Charge attachment to nanofillers and nanocrystallites increase with vol.% loading or degree of crystallinity, and saturate at about 40 vol.%.

Keywords: nanocomposites, nanofillers, electrical double layer, bipolar charge transport

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1307 Fragility Analysis of a Soft First-Story Building in Mexico City

Authors: Rene Jimenez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Miguel A. Orellana

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On 09/19/2017, a Mw = 7.1 intraslab earthquake occurred in Mexico causing the collapse of about 40 buildings. Many of these were 5- or 6-story buildings with soft first story; so, it is desirable to perform a structural fragility analysis of typical structures representative of those buildings and to propose a reliable structural solution. Here, a typical 5-story building constituted by regular R/C moment-resisting frames in the first story and confined masonry walls in the upper levels, similar to the collapsed structures on the 09/19/2017 Mexico earthquake, is analyzed. Three different structural solutions of the 5-story building are considered: S1) it is designed in accordance with the Mexico City Building Code-2004; S2) then, the column dimensions of the first story corresponding to S1 are reduced, and S3) viscous dampers are added at the first story of solution S2. A number of dynamic incremental analyses are performed for each structural solution, using a 3D structural model. The hysteretic behavior model of the masonry was calibrated with experiments performed at the Laboratory of Structures at UNAM. Ten seismic ground motions are used to excite the structures; they correspond to ground motions recorded in intermediate soil of Mexico City with a dominant period around 1s, where the structures are located. The fragility curves of the buildings are obtained for different values of the maximum inter-story drift demands. Results show that solutions S1 and S3 give place to similar probabilities of exceedance of a given value of inter-story drift for the same seismic intensity, and that solution S2 presents a higher probability of exceedance for the same seismic intensity and inter-story drift demand. Therefore, it is concluded that solution S3 (which corresponds to the building with soft first story and energy dissipation devices) can be a reliable solution from the structural point of view.

Keywords: demand hazard analysis, fragility curves, incremental dynamic analyzes, soft-first story, structural capacity

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1306 In Silico Exploration of Quinazoline Derivatives as EGFR Inhibitors for Lung Cancer: A Multi-Modal Approach Integrating QSAR-3D, ADMET, Molecular Docking, and Molecular Dynamics Analyses

Authors: Mohamed Moussaoui

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A series of thirty-one potential inhibitors targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor kinase (EGFR), derived from quinazoline, underwent 3D-QSAR analysis using CoMFA and CoMSIA methodologies. The training and test sets of quinazoline derivatives were utilized to construct and validate the QSAR models, respectively, with dataset alignment performed using the lowest energy conformer of the most active compound. The best-performing CoMFA and CoMSIA models demonstrated impressive determination coefficients, with R² values of 0.981 and 0.978, respectively, and Leave One Out cross-validation determination coefficients, Q², of 0.645 and 0.729, respectively. Furthermore, external validation using a test set of five compounds yielded predicted determination coefficients, R² test, of 0.929 and 0.909 for CoMFA and CoMSIA, respectively. Building upon these promising results, eighteen new compounds were designed and assessed for drug likeness and ADMET properties through in silico methods. Additionally, molecular docking studies were conducted to elucidate the binding interactions between the selected compounds and the enzyme. Detailed molecular dynamics simulations were performed to analyze the stability, conformational changes, and binding interactions of the quinazoline derivatives with the EGFR kinase. These simulations provided deeper insights into the dynamic behavior of the compounds within the active site. This comprehensive analysis enhances the understanding of quinazoline derivatives as potential anti-cancer agents and provides valuable insights for lead optimization in the early stages of drug discovery, particularly for developing highly potent anticancer therapeutics

Keywords: 3D-QSAR, CoMFA, CoMSIA, ADMET, molecular docking, quinazoline, molecular dynamic, egfr inhibitors, lung cancer, anticancer

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1305 Electrophysiological Correlates of Statistical Learning in Children with and without Developmental Language Disorder

Authors: Ana Paula Soares, Alexandrina Lages, Helena Oliveira, Francisco-Javier Gutiérrez-Domínguez, Marisa Lousada

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From an early age, exposure to a spoken language allows us to implicitly capture the structure underlying the succession of the speech sounds in that language and to segment it into meaningful units (words). Statistical learning (SL), i.e., the ability to pick up patterns in the sensory environment even without intention or consciousness of doing it, is thus assumed to play a central role in the acquisition of the rule-governed aspects of language and possibly to lie behind the language difficulties exhibited by children with development language disorder (DLD). The research conducted so far has, however, led to inconsistent results, which might stem from the behavioral tasks used to test SL. In a classic SL experiment, participants are first exposed to a continuous stream (e.g., syllables) in which, unbeknownst to the participants, stimuli are grouped into triplets that always appear together in the stream (e.g., ‘tokibu’, ‘tipolu’), with no pauses between each other (e.g., ‘tokibutipolugopilatokibu’) and without any information regarding the task or the stimuli. Following exposure, SL is assessed by asking participants to discriminate between triplets previously presented (‘tokibu’) from new sequences never presented together during exposure (‘kipopi’), i.e., to perform a two-alternative-forced-choice (2-AFC) task. Despite the widespread use of the 2-AFC to test SL, it has come under increasing criticism as it is an offline post-learning task that only assesses the result of the learning that had occurred during the previous exposure phase and that might be affected by other factors beyond the computation of regularities embedded in the input, typically the likelihood two syllables occurring together, a statistic known as transitional probability (TP). One solution to overcome these limitations is to assess SL as exposure to the stream unfolds using online techniques such as event-related potentials (ERP) that is highly sensitive to the time-course of the learning in the brain. Here we collected ERPs to examine the neurofunctional correlates of SL in preschool children with DLD, and chronological-age typical language development (TLD) controls who were exposed to an auditory stream in which eight three-syllable nonsense words, four of which presenting high-TPs and the other four low-TPs, to further analyze whether the ability of DLD and TLD children to extract-word-like units from the steam was modulated by words’ predictability. Moreover, to ascertain if the previous knowledge of the to-be-learned-regularities affected the neural responses to high- and low-TP words, children performed the auditory SL task, firstly, under implicit, and, subsequently, under explicit conditions. Although behavioral evidence of SL was not obtained in either group, the neural responses elicited during the exposure phases of the SL tasks differentiated children with DLD from children with TLD. Specifically, the results indicated that only children from the TDL group showed neural evidence of SL, particularly in the SL task performed under explicit conditions, firstly, for the low-TP, and, subsequently, for the high-TP ‘words’. Taken together, these findings support the view that children with DLD showed deficits in the extraction of the regularities embedded in the auditory input which might underlie the language difficulties.

Keywords: development language disorder, statistical learning, transitional probabilities, word segmentation

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1304 Synergistic Behavior of Polymer Mixtures in Designing Hydrogels for Biomedical Applications

Authors: Maria Bercea, Monica Diana Olteanu

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Investigation of polymer systems able to change inside of the body into networks represent an attractive approach, especially when there is a minimally invasive and patient friendly administration. Pharmaceutical formulations based on Pluronic F127 [poly (oxyethylene) (PEO) blocks (70%) and poly(oxypropylene) (PPO) blocks (30%)] present an excellent potential as drug delivery systems. The use of Pluronic F127 alone as gel-forming solution is limited by some characteristics, such as poor mechanical properties, short residence time, high permeability, etc. Investigation of the interactions between the natural and synthetic polymers and surfactants in solution is a subject of great interest from both scientific and practical point of view. As for example, formulations based on Pluronics and chitosan could be used to obtain dual phase transition hydrogels responsive to temperature and pH changes. In this study, different materials were prepared by using poly(vinyl alcohol), chitosan solutions mixed with aqueous solutions of Pluronic F127. The rheological properties of different formulations were investigated in temperature sweep experiments as well as at a constant temperature of 37oC for exploring in-situ gel formation in the human body conditions. In addition, some viscometric investigations were carried out in order to understand the interactions which determine the complex behaviour of these systems. Correlation between the thermodynamic and rheological parameters and phase separation phenomena observed for the investigated systems allowed the dissemination the constitutive response of polymeric materials at different external stimuli, such as temperature and pH. The rheological investigation demonstrated that the viscoelastic moduli of the hydrogels can be tuned depending on concentration of different components as well as pH and temperature conditions and cumulative contributions can be obtained.

Keywords: hydrogel, polymer mixture, stimuli responsive, biomedical applications

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1303 Social Appearance Concerns among College Students

Authors: Koninika Mukherjee, Dilwar Hussain

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Introduction: One of the most prevalent psychopathologies among the youth is social anxiety. The presence of comorbid disorders further complicates diagnosis and treatment. One of the most commonly co-occurring disorders, along with social anxiety, is related to eating behavior. Objective: Identifying the risk and protective factors and the mechanism through which the effect of these disorders might help in treatment and prevention. So, the stated objective of the present study is to investigate the role of fear of negative evaluation and social appearance anxiety in the relationship of parental bonding with social anxiety and comorbid disordered eating. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 411 Indian undergraduates. Data collection was done with the help of self-report measures like the social interaction anxiety scale, parental bonding instrument, brief fear of negative evaluation, social appearance anxiety scale, and the eating attitudes test. SPSS Amos 22.0 version was used for path analyses. Results: Out of the different dimensions of parental bonding, only maternal care and the father’s granting of behavioural freedom proved significant in the development and maintenance of social anxiety and disordered eating behaviour and symptoms. Fear of negative evaluation and social appearance anxiety mediated the impact of the mother’s care on social anxiety and comorbid disordered eating. However, only fear of negative evaluation seemed to mediate the effect of paternal granting of behavioral freedom on social anxiety and comorbid issues. Implications: One of the vital contributions of this study is looking at perceived maternal and paternal bonding separately in the path model. Identifying parenting dimensions significantly related to social anxiety and comorbid disorders can aid in establishing consensus around operational definitions and in the formulation of comprehensive assessments. Future Directions: Future research can include both participant and parental perceptions of parental bonding.

Keywords: social anxiety, disordered eating, fear of negative evaluation, social appearance anxiety

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1302 Influence of Hydrophobic Surface on Flow Past Square Cylinder

Authors: S. Ajith Kumar, Vaisakh S. Rajan

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In external flows, vortex shedding behind the bluff bodies causes to experience unsteady loads on a large number of engineering structures, resulting in structural failure. Vortex shedding can even turn out to be disastrous like the Tacoma Bridge failure incident. We need to have control over vortex shedding to get rid of this untoward condition by reducing the unsteady forces acting on the bluff body. In circular cylinders, hydrophobic surface in an otherwise no-slip surface is found to be delaying separation and minimizes the effects of vortex shedding drastically. Flow over square cylinder stands different from this behavior as separation can takes place from either of the two corner separation points (front or rear). An attempt is made in this study to numerically elucidate the effect of hydrophobic surface in flow over a square cylinder. A 2D numerical simulation has been done to understand the effects of the slip surface on the flow past square cylinder. The details of the numerical algorithm will be presented at the time of the conference. A non-dimensional parameter, Knudsen number is defined to quantify the slip on the cylinder surface based on Maxwell’s equation. The slip surface condition of the wall affects the vorticity distribution around the cylinder and the flow separation. In the numerical analysis, we observed that the hydrophobic surface enhances the shedding frequency and damps down the amplitude of oscillations of the square cylinder. We also found that the slip has a negative effect on aerodynamic force coefficients such as the coefficient of lift (CL), coefficient of drag (CD) etc. and hence replacing the no slip surface by a hydrophobic surface can be treated as an effective drag reduction strategy and the introduction of hydrophobic surface could be utilized for reducing the vortex induced vibrations (VIV) and is found as an effective method in controlling VIV thereby controlling the structural failures.

Keywords: drag reduction, flow past square cylinder, flow control, hydrophobic surfaces, vortex shedding

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1301 Approaches for Minimizing Radioactive Tritium and ¹⁴C in Advanced High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

Authors: Longkui Zhu, Zhengcao Li

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High temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are considered as one of the next-generation advanced nuclear reactors, in which porous nuclear graphite is used as neutron moderators, reflectors, structure materials, and cooled by inert helium. Radioactive tritium and ¹⁴C are generated in terms of reactions of thermal neutrons and ⁶Li, ¹⁴N, ¹⁰B impurely within nuclear graphite and the coolant during HTGRs operation. Currently, hydrogen and nitrogen diffusion behavior together with nuclear graphite microstructure evolution were investigated to minimize the radioactive waste release, using thermogravimetric analysis, X-ray computed tomography, the BET and mercury standard porosimetry methods. It is found that the peak value of graphite weight loss emerged at 573-673 K owing to nitrogen diffusion from graphite pores to outside when the system was subjected to vacuum. Macropore volume became larger while porosity for mesopores was smaller with temperature ranging from ambient temperature to 1073 K, which was primarily induced by coalescence of the subscale pores. It is suggested that the porous nuclear graphite should be first subjected to vacuum at 573-673 K to minimize the nitrogen and the radioactive 14°C before operation in HTGRs. Then, results on hydrogen diffusion show that the diffusible hydrogen and tritium could permeate into the coolant with diffusion coefficients of > 0.5 × 10⁻⁴ cm²·s⁻¹ at 50 bar. As a consequence, the freshly-generated diffusible tritium could release quickly to outside once formed, and an effective approach for minimizing the amount of radioactive tritium is to make the impurity contents extremely low in nuclear graphite and the coolant. Besides, both two- and three-dimensional observations indicate that macro and mesopore volume along with total porosity decreased with temperature at 50 bar on account of synergistic effects of applied compression strain, sharpened pore morphology, and non-uniform temperature distribution.

Keywords: advanced high temperature gas-cooled reactor, hydrogen and nitrogen diffusion, microstructure evolution, nuclear graphite, radioactive waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 298
1300 Use of Extended Conversation to Boost Vocabulary Knowledge and Soft Skills in English for Employment Classes

Authors: James G. Matthew, Seonmin Huh, Frank X. Bennett

Abstract:

English for Specific Purposes, ESP, aims to equip learners with necessary English language skills. Many ESP programs address language skills for job performance, including reading job related documents and oral proficiency. Within ESP is English for occupational purposes, EOP, which centers around developing communicative competence for the globalized workplace. Many ESP and EOP courses lack the content needed to assist students to progress at work, resulting in the need to create lexical compilation for different professions. It is important to teach communicative competence and soft skills for real job-related problem situations and address the complexities of the real world to help students to be successful in their professions. ESP and EOP research is therefore trying to balance both profession-specific educational contents as well as international multi-disciplinary language skills for the globalized workforce. The current study will build upon the existing discussion by developing pedagogy to assist students in their career through developing a strong practical command of relevant English vocabulary. Our research question focuses on the pedagogy two professors incorporated in their English for employment courses. The current study is a qualitative case study on the modes of teaching delivery for EOP in South Korea. Two foreign professors teaching at two different universities in South Korea volunteered for the study to explore their teaching practices. Both professors’ curriculums included the components of employment-related concept vocabulary, business presentations, CV/resume and cover letter preparation, and job interview preparation. All the pre-made recorded video lectures, live online class sessions with students, teachers’ lesson plans, teachers’ class materials, students’ assignments, and midterm and finals video conferences were collected for data analysis. The study then focused on unpacking representative patterns in their teaching methods. The professors used their strengths as native speakers to extend the class discussion from narrow and restricted conversations to giving students broader opportunities to practice authentic English conversation. The methods of teaching utilized three main steps to extend the conversation. Firstly, students were taught concept vocabulary. Secondly, the vocabulary was then combined in speaking activities where students had to solve scenarios, and the students were required to expand on the given forms of words and language expressions. Lastly, the students had conversations in English, using the language learnt. The conversations observed in both classes were those of authentic, expanded English communication and this way of expanding concept vocabulary lessons into extended conversation is one representative pedagogical approach that both professors took. Extended English conversation, therefore, is crucial for EOP education.

Keywords: concept vocabulary, english as a foreign language, english for employment, extended conversation

Procedia PDF Downloads 81
1299 The Issues of Irrigation and Drainage in Kebbi State and Their Effective Solution for a Sustainable Agriculture in Kebbi State, Nigeria

Authors: Mumtaz Ahmed Sohag, Ishaq Ahmed Sohag

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Kebbi State, located in the Nort-West of Nigeria, is rich in water resources as the major rivers viz. Niger and Rima irrigate a vast majority of land. Besides, there is significant amount of groundwater, which farmers use for agriculture purpose. The groundwater is also a major source of agricultural and domestic water as wells are installed in almost all parts of the region. Although Kebbi State is rich in water, however, there are some pertinent issues which are hampering its agricultural productivity. The low lands (locally called Fadama), has spread out to a vast area. It is inundated every year during the rainy season which lasts from June to September every year. The farmers grow rice during the rainy season when water is standing. They cannot do further agricultural activity for almost two months due to high standing water. This has resulted in widespread waterlogging problem. Besides, the impact of climate change is resulting in rapid variation in river/stream flows. The information about water bodies regarding the availability of water for agricultural and other uses and the behavior of rivers at different flows is seldom available. Furthermore, sediment load (suspended and bedload) is not measured due to which land erosion cannot be countered effectively. This study, carried out in seven different irrigation regions of Kebbi state, found that diversion structures need to be constructed at some strategic locations for the supply of surface water to the farmers. The water table needs to be lowered through an effective drainage system. The monitoring of water bodies is crucial for sound data to help efficient regulation and management of water. Construction of embankments is necessary to control frequent floods in the rivers of Niger and Rima. Furthermore, farmers need capacity and awareness for participatory irrigation management.

Keywords: water bodies, floods, agriculture, waterlogging

Procedia PDF Downloads 221
1298 Solvent-Aided Dilution Approach for Heavy Hydrocarbon Liquid Evaluation in the Eastern Dahomey Basin, Southwestern Nigeria: Case Study of Agbabu Bitumen in Ondo State.

Authors: Adetokunbo Ademola Falade, Oluwatoyin Olakunle Akinsete, Hussein Omeiza Aliu

Abstract:

Solvent-aided dilution processes are often employed to recover bitumen by reducing its viscosity. In this study, methanol, toluene, and xylene were investigated as potential hydrocarbon solvents for solvent-aided hydrocarbon recovery of Agbabu bitumen. Solubility, Viscosity, and Saturate, Aromatic, Resin and Asphaltene (SARA) Analysis tests were carried out to determine the solubility of the bitumen in the solvents, the viscosity, and the SARA fraction of the natural bitumen and bitumen-solvent mixtures. Agbabu bitumen was found to have a high content of saturates and aromatics. Viscosity decreases as pressure increases, while solubility reduces as temperature increases. The experimental diffusivity of the sample decreases with temperature and increases with pressure, indicating that the presence of additional solvent molecules in the oil phase facilitates diffusion. Agbabu bitumen was found to be most soluble in toluene, and its viscosity was reduced most in it. Xylene exhibited a similar effect as toluene on the sample, though lesser but better than methanol. Methanol reduced the saturated content and significantly raised the asphaltene content, keeping the mixture viscosity high, a condition that, in turn, favors its colloidal stability. The colloidal instability index (CII) values, which account for the asphaltene stability of the mixture, show that the bitumen-methanol system with a CII of 0.874 will have mild asphaltene deposit issues while others are unstable. This approach of combining multiple tests with the CII can accurately predict the behavior of Agbabu bitumen in solvents and enhance the decision on the choice of bitumen recovery technology.

Keywords: asphaltene, bitumen, diffusivity, hydrocarbon solvent, SARA

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1297 The Effects of Water Fraction and Salinity on Crude Oil-Water Dispersions

Authors: Ramin Dabirian, Yi Zhang, Ilias Gavrielatos, Ram Mohan, Ovadia Shoham

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Oil-water emulsions can be found in almost every part of the petroleum industry, namely in reservoir rocks, drilling cuttings circulation, production in wells, transportation pipelines, surface facilities and refining process. However, it is necessary for oil production and refinery engineers to resolve the petroleum emulsion problems as well as to eliminate the contaminants in order to meet environmental standards, achieve the desired product quality and to improve equipment reliability and efficiency. A state-of-art Dispersion Characterization Rig (DCR) has been utilized to investigate crude oil-distilled water dispersion separation. Over 80 experimental tests were ran to investigate the flow behavior and stability of the dispersions. The experimental conditions include the effects of water cuts (25%, 50% and 75%), NaCl concentrations (0, 3.5% and 18%), mixture flow velocities (0.89 and 1.71 ft/s), and also orifice place types on the separation rate. The experimental data demonstrate that the water cut can significantly affects the separation time and efficiency. The dispersion with lower water cut takes longer time to separate and have low separation efficiency. The medium and lower water cuts will result in the formation of Mousse emulsion and the phase inversion happens around the medium water cut. The data also confirm that increasing the NaCl concentration in aqueous phase can increase the crude oil water dispersion separation efficiency especially at higher salinities. The separation profile for dispersions with lower salt concentrations has a lower sedimentation rate slope before the inflection point. Dispersions in all tests with higher salt concentrations have a larger sedimenting rate. The presence of NaCl can influence the interfacial tension gradients along the interface and it plays a role in avoiding the Mousse emulsion formation.

Keywords: oil-water dispersion, separation mechanism, phase inversion, emulsion formation

Procedia PDF Downloads 168
1296 A Sustainable Training and Feedback Model for Developing the Teaching Capabilities of Sessional Academic Staff

Authors: Nirmani Wijenayake, Louise Lutze-Mann, Lucy Jo, John Wilson, Vivian Yeung, Dean Lovett, Kim Snepvangers

Abstract:

Sessional academic staff at universities have the most influence and impact on student learning, engagement, and experience as they have the most direct contact with undergraduate students. A blended technology-enhanced program was created for the development and support of sessional staff to ensure adequate training is provided to deliver quality educational outcomes for the students. This program combines innovative mixed media educational modules, a peer-driven support forum, and face-to-face workshops to provide a comprehensive training and support package for staff. Additionally, the program encourages the development of learning communities and peer mentoring among the sessional staff to enhance their support system. In 2018, the program was piloted on 100 sessional staff in the School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences to evaluate the effectiveness of this model. As part of the program, rotoscope animations were developed to showcase ‘typical’ interactions between staff and students. These were designed around communication, confidence building, consistency in grading, feedback, diversity awareness, and mental health and wellbeing. When surveyed, 86% of sessional staff found these animations to be helpful in their teaching. An online platform (Moodle) was set up to disseminate educational resources and teaching tips, to host a discussion forum for peer-to-peer communication and to increase critical thinking and problem-solving skills through scenario-based lessons. The learning analytics from these lessons were essential in identifying difficulties faced by sessional staff to further develop supporting workshops to improve outcomes related to teaching. The face-to-face professional development workshops were run by expert guest speakers on topics such as cultural diversity, stress and anxiety, LGBTIQ and student engagement. All the attendees of the workshops found them to be useful and 88% said they felt these workshops increase interaction with their peers and built a sense of community. The final component of the program was to use an adaptive e-learning platform to gather feedback from the students on sessional staff teaching twice during the semester. The initial feedback provides sessional staff with enough time to reflect on their teaching and adjust their performance if necessary, to improve the student experience. The feedback from students and the sessional staff on this model has been extremely positive. The training equips the sessional staff with knowledge and insights which can provide students with an exceptional learning environment. This program is designed in a flexible and scalable manner so that other faculties or institutions could adapt components for their own training. It is anticipated that the training and support would help to build the next generation of educators who will directly impact the educational experience of students.

Keywords: designing effective instruction, enhancing student learning, implementing effective strategies, professional development

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
1295 Impact Analysis of a School-Based Oral Health Program in Brazil

Authors: Fabio L. Vieira, Micaelle F. C. Lemos, Luciano C. Lemos, Rafaela S. Oliveira, Ian A. Cunha

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Brazil has some challenges ahead related to population oral health, most of them associated with the need of expanding into the local level its promotion and prevention activities, offer equal access to services and promote changes in the lifestyle of the population. The program implemented an oral health initiative in public schools in the city of Salvador, Bahia. The mission was to improve oral health among students on primary and secondary education, from 2 to 15 years old, using the school as a pathway to increase access to healthcare. The main actions consisted of a team's visit to the schools with educational sessions for dental cavity prevention and individual assessment. The program incorporated a clinical surveillance component through a dental evaluation of every student searching for dental disease and caries, standardization of the dentists’ team to reach uniform classification on the assessments, and the use of an online platform to register data directly from the schools. Sequentially, the students with caries were referred for free clinical treatment on the program’s Health Centre. The primary purpose of this study was to analyze the effects and outcomes of this school-based oral health program. The study sample was composed by data of a period of 3 years - 2015 to 2017 - from 13 public schools on the suburb of the city of Salvador with a total number of assessments of 9,278 on this period. From the data collected the prevalence of children with decay on permanent teeth was chosen as the most reliable indicator. The prevalence was calculated for each one of the 13 schools using the number of children with 1 or more dental caries on permanent teeth divided by the total number of students assessed for school each year. Then the percentage change per year was calculated for each school. Some schools presented a higher variation on the total number of assessments in one of the three years, so for these, the percentage change calculation was done using the two years with less variation. The results show that 10 of the 13 schools presented significative improvements for the indicator of caries in permanent teeth. The mean for the number of students with caries percentage reduction on the 13 schools was 26.8%, and the median was 32.2% caries in permanent teeth institution. The highest percentage of improvement reached a decrease of 65.6% on the indicator. Three schools presented a rise in caries prevalence (8.9, 18.9 and 37.2% increase) that, on an initial analysis, seems to be explained with the students’ cohort rotation among other schools, as well as absenteeism on the treatment. In conclusion, the program shows a relevant impact on the reduction of caries in permanent teeth among students and the need for the continuity and expansion of this integrated healthcare approach. It has also been evident the significative of the articulation between health and educational systems representing a fundamental approach to improve healthcare access for children especially in scenarios such as presented in Brazil.

Keywords: primary care, public health, oral health, school-based oral health, data management

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
1294 Agent-Based Modelling to Improve Dairy-origin Beef Production: Model Description and Evaluation

Authors: Addisu H. Addis, Hugh T. Blair, Paul R. Kenyon, Stephen T. Morris, Nicola M. Schreurs, Dorian J. Garrick

Abstract:

Agent-based modeling (ABM) enables an in silico representation of complex systems and cap-tures agent behavior resulting from interaction with other agents and their environment. This study developed an ABM to represent a pasture-based beef cattle finishing systems in New Zea-land (NZ) using attributes of the rearer, finisher, and processor, as well as specific attributes of dairy-origin beef cattle. The model was parameterized using values representing 1% of NZ dairy-origin cattle, and 10% of rearers and finishers in NZ. The cattle agent consisted of 32% Holstein-Friesian, 50% Holstein-Friesian–Jersey crossbred, and 8% Jersey, with the remainder being other breeds. Rearers and finishers repetitively and simultaneously interacted to determine the type and number of cattle populating the finishing system. Rearers brought in four-day-old spring-born calves and reared them until 60 calves (representing a full truck load) on average had a live weight of 100 kg before selling them on to finishers. Finishers mainly attained weaners from rearers, or directly from dairy farmers when weaner demand was higher than the supply from rearers. Fast-growing cattle were sent for slaughter before the second winter, and the re-mainder were sent before their third winter. The model finished a higher number of bulls than heifers and steers, although it was 4% lower than the industry reported value. Holstein-Friesian and Holstein-Friesian–Jersey-crossbred cattle dominated the dairy-origin beef finishing system. Jersey cattle account for less than 5% of total processed beef cattle. Further studies to include re-tailer and consumer perspectives and other decision alternatives for finishing farms would im-prove the applicability of the model for decision-making processes.

Keywords: agent-based modelling, dairy cattle, beef finishing, rearers, finishers

Procedia PDF Downloads 73
1293 Intrinsically Dual-Doped Conductive Polymer System for Electromagnetic Shielding Applications

Authors: S. Koul, Joshua Adedamola

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Currently, the global concerning fact about electromagnetic pollution (EMP) is that it not only adversely affects human health but rather projects the malfunctioning of sensitive equipment both locally and at a global level. The market offers many incumbent technologies to solve the issues, but still, a processable sustainable material solution with acceptable limits for GHG emission is still at an exploratory stage. The present work offers a sustainable material solution with a wide range of processability in terms of a polymeric resin matrix and shielding operational efficiency across the electromagnetic spectrum, covering both ionizing and non-ionizing electromagnetic radiations. The present work offers an in-situ synthesized conducting polyaniline (PANI) in the presence of the hybrid dual dopant system with tuned conductivity and high shielding efficiency between 89 to 92 decibels, depending upon the EMI frequency range. The conductive polymer synthesized in the presence of a hybrid dual dopant system via the in-situ emulsion polymerization method offers a higher surface resistance of 1.0 ohms/cm with thermal stability up to 2450C in their powder form. This conductive polymer with a hybrid dual dopant system was used as a filler material with different polymeric thermoplastic resin systems for the preparation of conductive composites. Intrinsically Conductive polymeric (ICP) composites based on hybrid dual dopant systems were prepared using melt blending, extrusion, and finally by, compression molding processing techniques. ICP composites with hybrid dual dopant systems offered good mechanical, thermal, structural, weathering, and stable surface resistivity properties over a period of time. The preliminary shielding behavior for ICP composites between frequency levels of 10 GHz to 24GHZ offered a shielding efficiency of more than 90 dB.

Keywords: ICP, dopant, EMI, shielding

Procedia PDF Downloads 64
1292 Investigation of the Material Behaviour of Polymeric Interlayers in Broken Laminated Glass

Authors: Martin Botz, Michael Kraus, Geralt Siebert

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The use of laminated glass gains increasing importance in structural engineering. For safety reasons, at least two glass panes are laminated together with a polymeric interlayer. In case of breakage of one or all of the glass panes, the glass fragments are still connected to the interlayer due to adhesion forces and a certain residual load-bearing capacity is left in the system. Polymer interlayers used in the laminated glass show a viscoelastic material behavior, e.g. stresses and strains in the interlayer are dependent on load duration and temperature. In the intact stage only small strains appear in the interlayer, thus the material can be described in a linear way. In the broken stage, large strains can appear and a non-linear viscoelasticity material theory is necessary. Relaxation tests on two different types of polymeric interlayers are performed at different temperatures and strain amplitudes to determine the border to the non-linear material regime. Based on the small-scale specimen results further tests on broken laminated glass panes are conducted. So-called ‘through-crack-bending’ (TCB) tests are performed, in which the laminated glass has a defined crack pattern. The test set-up is realized in a way that one glass layer is still able to transfer compressive stresses but tensile stresses have to be transferred by the interlayer solely. The TCB-tests are also conducted under different temperatures but constant force (creep test). Aims of these experiments are to elaborate if the results of small-scale tests on the interlayer are transferable to a laminated glass system in the broken stage. In this study, limits of the applicability of linear-viscoelasticity are established in the context of two commercially available polymer-interlayers. Furthermore, it is shown that the results of small-scale tests agree to a certain degree to the results of the TCB large-scale experiments. In a future step, the results can be used to develop material models for the post breakage performance of laminated glass.

Keywords: glass breakage, laminated glass, relaxation test, viscoelasticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 110
1291 Predicting Provider Service Time in Outpatient Clinics Using Artificial Intelligence-Based Models

Authors: Haya Salah, Srinivas Sharan

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Healthcare facilities use appointment systems to schedule their appointments and to manage access to their medical services. With the growing demand for outpatient care, it is now imperative to manage physician's time effectively. However, high variation in consultation duration affects the clinical scheduler's ability to estimate the appointment duration and allocate provider time appropriately. Underestimating consultation times can lead to physician's burnout, misdiagnosis, and patient dissatisfaction. On the other hand, appointment durations that are longer than required lead to doctor idle time and fewer patient visits. Therefore, a good estimation of consultation duration has the potential to improve timely access to care, resource utilization, quality of care, and patient satisfaction. Although the literature on factors influencing consultation length abound, little work has done to predict it using based data-driven approaches. Therefore, this study aims to predict consultation duration using supervised machine learning algorithms (ML), which predicts an outcome variable (e.g., consultation) based on potential features that influence the outcome. In particular, ML algorithms learn from a historical dataset without explicitly being programmed and uncover the relationship between the features and outcome variable. A subset of the data used in this study has been obtained from the electronic medical records (EMR) of four different outpatient clinics located in central Pennsylvania, USA. Also, publicly available information on doctor's characteristics such as gender and experience has been extracted from online sources. This research develops three popular ML algorithms (deep learning, random forest, gradient boosting machine) to predict the treatment time required for a patient and conducts a comparative analysis of these algorithms with respect to predictive performance. The findings of this study indicate that ML algorithms have the potential to predict the provider service time with superior accuracy. While the current approach of experience-based appointment duration estimation adopted by the clinic resulted in a mean absolute percentage error of 25.8%, the Deep learning algorithm developed in this study yielded the best performance with a MAPE of 12.24%, followed by gradient boosting machine (13.26%) and random forests (14.71%). Besides, this research also identified the critical variables affecting consultation duration to be patient type (new vs. established), doctor's experience, zip code, appointment day, and doctor's specialty. Moreover, several practical insights are obtained based on the comparative analysis of the ML algorithms. The machine learning approach presented in this study can serve as a decision support tool and could be integrated into the appointment system for effectively managing patient scheduling.

Keywords: clinical decision support system, machine learning algorithms, patient scheduling, prediction models, provider service time

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
1290 Assesments of Some Environment Variables on Fisheries at Two Levels: Global and Fao Major Fishing Areas

Authors: Hyelim Park, Juan Martin Zorrilla

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Climate change influences very widely and in various ways ocean ecosystem functioning. The consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems are an increase in temperature and irregular behavior of some solute concentrations. These changes would affect fisheries catches in several ways. Our aim is to assess the quantitative contribution change of fishery catches along the time and express them through four environment variables: Sea Surface Temperature (SST4) and the concentrations of Chlorophyll (CHL), Particulate Inorganic Carbon (PIC) and Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) at two spatial scales: Global and the nineteen FAO Major Fishing Areas divisions. Data collection was based on the FAO FishStatJ 2014 database as well as MODIS Aqua satellite observations from 2002 to 2012. Some data had to be corrected and interpolated using some existing methods. As the results, a multivariable regression model for average Global fisheries captures contained temporal mean of SST4, standard deviation of SST4, standard deviation of CHL and standard deviation of PIC. Global vector auto-regressive (VAR) model showed that SST4 was a statistical cause of global fishery capture. To accommodate varying conditions in fishery condition and influence of climate change variables, a model was constructed for each FAO major fishing area. From the management perspective it should be recognized some limitations of the FAO marine areas division that opens to possibility to the discussion of the subdivision of the areas into smaller units. Furthermore, it should be treated that the contribution changes of fishery species and the possible environment factor for specific species at various scale levels.

Keywords: fisheries-catch, FAO FishStatJ, MODIS Aqua, sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), VAR, granger causality

Procedia PDF Downloads 466
1289 Linear Stability Analysis of a Regularized Two-Fluid Model for Unstable Gas-Liquid Flows in Long Hilly Terrain Pipelines

Authors: David Alejandro Lazo-Vasquez, Jorge Luis Balino

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In the petroleum industry, multiphase flow occurs when oil, gas, and water are transported in the same pipe through large pipeline systems. The flow can take different patterns depending on parameters like fluid velocities, pipe diameter, pipe inclination, and fluid properties. Mainly, intermittent flow is produced by the natural propagation of short and long waves, according to the Kelvin-Helmholtz Stability Theory. To model stratified flow and the onset of intermittent flow, it is crucial to have knowledge of short and long waves behavior. The two-fluid model, frequently employed for characterizing multiphase systems, becomes ill-posed for high liquid and gas velocities and large inclination angles, for short waves can develop infinite growth rates. We are interested in focusing attention on long-wave instability, which leads to the production of roll waves that may grow and result in the transition from stratified flow to intermittent flow. In this study, global and local linear stability analyses for dynamic and kinematic stability criteria predict the regions of stability of the flow for different pipe inclinations and fluid velocities in regularized and non-regularized systems, concurrently. It was possible to distinguish when: wave growth rates are absolutely bounded (stable stratified smooth flow), waves have finite growth rates (unstable stratified wavy flow), and when the equation system becomes elliptic and hyperbolization is needed. In order to bound short wave growth rates and regularize the equation system, we incorporated some lower and higher-order terms like interfacial drag and surface tension, respectively.

Keywords: linear stability analysis, multiphase flow, onset of slugging, two-fluid model regularization

Procedia PDF Downloads 118