Search results for: quantitative microbiological risk assessment

Authors: Liane Marcia Freitas Silva, Fernando Augusto Silva Marins, Maria Silene Alexandre Leite

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The adoption of a network structure, like in the supply chains, favors the increase of dependence between companies and, by consequence, their vulnerability. Environment disasters, sociopolitical and economical events, and the dynamics of supply chains elevate the uncertainty of their operation, favoring the occurrence of events that can generate break up in the operations and other undesired consequences. Thus, supply chains are exposed to various risks that can influence the profitability of companies involved, and there are several previous studies that have proposed risk classification models in order to categorize the risks and to manage them. The objective of this paper is to analyze and discuss thirty of these risk classification models by means a theoretical survey. The research method adopted for analyzing and discussion includes three phases: The identification of the types of risks proposed in each one of the thirty models, the grouping of them considering equivalent concepts associated to their definitions, and, the analysis of these risks groups, evaluating their similarities and differences. After these analyses, it was possible to conclude that, in fact, there is more than thirty risks types identified in the literature of Supply Chains, but some of them are identical despite of be used distinct terms to characterize them, because different criteria for risk classification are adopted by researchers. In short, it is observed that some types of risks are identified as risk source for supply chains, such as, demand risk, environmental risk and safety risk. On the other hand, other types of risks are identified by the consequences that they can generate for the supply chains, such as, the reputation risk, the asset depreciation risk and the competitive risk. These results are consequence of the disagreements between researchers on risk classification, mainly about what is risk event and about what is the consequence of risk occurrence. An additional study is in developing in order to clarify how the risks can be generated, and which are the characteristics of the components in a Supply Chain that leads to occurrence of risk.

Keywords: sisks classification, survey, supply chain management, theoretical discussion

Procedia PDF Downloads 625

Authors: Kemal Izci, Ahmet Oguz Akturk

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Learning is dependent on cognitive and physical differences as well as other differences such as ethnicity, language, and culture. Furthermore, these differences also influence how students show their learning. Assessment is an integral part of learning and teaching process and is essential for effective instruction. In order to provide effective instruction, teachers need to provide equal assessment opportunities for all students to see their learning difficulties and use them to modify instruction to aid learning. Successful assessment practices are dependent upon the knowledge and value of teachers. Therefore, in order to use assessment to assess and support diverse students learning, preservice and inservice teachers should hold an appropriate understanding of equitable assessment. In order to prepare teachers to help them support diverse student learning, as a first step, this study aims to explore how preservice teachers’ understand equitable assessment. 105 preservice science teachers studying at teacher preparation program in a large university located at Eastern part of Turkey participated in the current study. A questionnaire, preservice teachers’ reflection papers and interviews served as data sources for this study. All collected data qualitatively analyzed to develop themes that illustrate preservice science teachers’ understanding of equitable assessment. Results of the study showed that preservice teachers mostly emphasized fairness including fairness in grading and fairness in asking questions not out of covered concepts for equitable assessment. However, most of preservice teachers do not show an understanding of equity for providing equal opportunities for all students to display their understanding of related content. For some preservice teachers providing different opportunities (providing extra time for non-native speaking students) for some students seems to be unfair for other students and therefore, these kinds of refinements do not need to be used. The results of the study illustrated that preservice science teachers mostly understand equitable assessment as fairness and less highlight the role of using equitable assessment to support all student learning, which is more important in order to improve students’ achievement of science. Therefore, we recommend that more opportunities should be provided for preservice teachers engage in a more broad understanding of equitable assessment and learn how to use equitable assessment practices to aid and support all students learning trough classroom assessment.

Keywords: science teaching, equitable assessment, assessment literacy, preservice science teachers

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Authors: Seyed Vahid Kamal Alavi

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Italy has experienced a notable quantity and impact of disasters due to natural hazards and technological accidents caused by diverse risk sources on its physical, technological, and human/sociological infrastructures during past decade. This study discusses the frequency and impacts of the most three physical devastating natural hazards in Italy for the period 2000–2013. The approach examines the reliability of a range of open source WebGIS techniques versus a proposed multi-hazard risk management methodology. Spatial and attribute data which include USGS publically available hazard data and thirteen years Munich RE recorded data for Italy with different severities have been processed, visualized in a GIS (Geographic Information System) framework. Comparison of results from the study showed that the multi-hazard risk maps generated using open source techniques do not provide a reliable system to analyze the infrastructures losses in respect to national risk sources while they can be adopted for general international risk management purposes. Additionally, this study establishes the possibility to critically examine and calibrate different integrated techniques in evaluating what better protection measures can be taken in an area.

Keywords: multi-hazard risk mapping, risk management, GIS, Italy

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Abid I. Abu-Tair, Gavin M. Wilde, John M. Kinuthia

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Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) is a functional capability that has been developed to allow the United Kingdom Fire and Rescue Service to deal with ‘major incidents’ primarily involving structural collapse. The nature of the work undertaken by USAR means that staying out of a damaged or collapsed building structure is not usually an option for search and rescue personnel. As a result, there is always a risk that they could become victims. For this paper, a systematic and investigative review using desk research was undertaken to explore the role which structural engineering can play in assisting search and rescue personnel to conduct structural assessments when in the field. The focus is on how search and rescue personnel can assess damaged and collapsed building structures, not just in terms of the structural damage that may be countered, but also in relation to structural stability. Natural disasters, accidental emergencies, acts of terrorism and other extreme events can vary significantly in nature and ferocity, and can cause a wide variety of damage to building structures. It is not possible or, even realistic, to provide search and rescue personnel with definitive guidelines and procedures to assess damaged and collapsed building structures as there are too many variables to consider. However, understanding what implications damage may have upon the structural stability of a building structure will enable search and rescue personnel to judge better and quantify the risk from a life-safety standpoint. It is intended that this will allow search and rescue personnel to make informed decisions and ensure every effort is made to mitigate risk so that they do not become victims.

Keywords: damaged and collapsed building structures, life safety, quantifying risk, search and rescue personnel, structural assessments in the field

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Authors: Siti Rohana Mohd Yatim, Ku Halim Ku Hamid, Kamariah Noor Ismail, Zulkifli Abdul Rashid

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The aim of this study is to investigate odour emission profiles from storage of food waste and to assess the potential health risk caused by exposure to volatile compounds. Food waste decomposition process was conducted for 14 days and kept at 20°C and 30°C in self-made bioreactor. VOCs emissions from both samples were collected at different stages of decomposition starting at day 0, day 1, day 3, day 5, day 7, day 10, day 12 and day 14. It was analyzed using TD-GC/MS. Findings showed that various VOCs were released during decomposition of food waste. Compounds produced were influenced by time, temperature and the physico-chemical characteristics of the compounds. The most abundant compound released was dimethyl disulfide. Potential health risk of exposure to this compound is represented by hazard ratio, HR, calculated at 1.6 x 1011. Since HR equal to or less than 1.0 is considered negligible risk, this indicates that the compound posed a potential risk to human health.

Keywords: volatile organic compounds, decomposition process, food waste, health risk

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Authors: Yu Chen, Xiaoguang Yang, Lin Lin

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Traffic engineering construction is an important infrastructure for economic and social development. In the process of construction and operation, the ability to make a correct evaluation of the project's environmental impact appears to be crucial to the rational operation of existing transportation projects, the correct development of transportation engineering construction and the adoption of corresponding measures to scientifically carry out environmental protection work. Most of the existing research work on ecological and environmental impact assessment is limited to individual aspects of the environment and less to the overall evaluation of the environmental system; in terms of research conclusions, there are more qualitative analyses from the technical and policy levels, and there is a lack of quantitative research results and quantitative and operable evaluation models. In this paper, a comprehensive analysis of the ecological and environmental impacts of transportation construction projects is conducted, and factors such as the accessibility of data and the reliability of calculation results are comprehensively considered to extract indicators that can reflect the essence and characteristics. The qualitative evaluation indicators were screened using the expert review method, the qualitative indicators were measured using the fuzzy statistics method, the quantitative indicators were screened using the principal component analysis method, and the quantitative indicators were measured by both literature search and calculation. An environmental impact evaluation index system with the general objective layer, sub-objective layer and indicator layer was established, dividing the environmental impact of the transportation construction project into two periods: the construction period and the operation period. On the basis of the evaluation index system, the index weights are determined using the hierarchical analysis method, and the individual indicators to be evaluated are dimensionless, eliminating the influence of the original background and meaning of the indicators. Finally, the thesis uses the above research results, combined with the actual engineering practice, to verify the correctness and operability of the evaluation method.

Keywords: transportation construction projects, ecological and environmental impact, analysis and evaluation, indicator evaluation system

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Authors: Sergo Tsiramua, Sulkhan Sulkhanishvili, Elisabed Asabashvili, Lazare Kvirtia

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The paper presents logical-probabilistic methods, models, and algorithms for reliability assessment of complex systems, based on which a web application for structural analysis and reliability assessment of systems was created. It is important to design systems based on structural analysis, research, and evaluation of efficiency indicators. One of the important efficiency criteria is the reliability of the system, which depends on the components of the structure. Quantifying the reliability of large-scale systems is a computationally complex process, and it is advisable to perform it with the help of a computer. Logical-probabilistic modeling is one of the effective means of describing the structure of a complex system and quantitatively evaluating its reliability, which was the basis of our application. The reliability assessment process included the following stages, which were reflected in the application: 1) Construction of a graphical scheme of the structural reliability of the system; 2) Transformation of the graphic scheme into a logical representation and modeling of the shortest ways of successful functioning of the system; 3) Description of system operability condition with logical function in the form of disjunctive normal form (DNF); 4) Transformation of DNF into orthogonal disjunction normal form (ODNF) using the orthogonalization algorithm; 5) Replacing logical elements with probabilistic elements in ODNF, obtaining a reliability estimation polynomial and quantifying reliability; 6) Calculation of “weights” of elements of system. Using the logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms discussed in the paper, a special software was created, by means of which a quantitative assessment of the reliability of systems of a complex structure is produced. As a result, structural analysis of systems, research, and designing of optimal structure systems are carried out.

Keywords: complex systems, logical-probabilistic methods, orthogonalization algorithm, reliability of systems, “weights” of elements

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Authors: M. Kazou, A. Gavriil, O. Kalagkatsi, T. Paschos, E. Tsakalidou

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Kopanisti cheese is a Greek soft Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) cheese made of raw cow, sheep or goat milk, or mixtures of them, with similar organoleptic characteristics to that of Roquefort cheese. Traditional manufacturing of Kopanisti cheese is limited in small-scale dairies, without the addition of starter cultures. Instead, an amount of over-mature Kopanisti cheese, called Mana Kopanisti, is used to initiate ripening. Therefore, the selection of proper starter cultures and the understanding of the contribution of various microbial groups to its overall quality is crucial for the production of a high-quality final product with standardized organoleptic and physicochemical characteristics. Taking the above into account, the aim of the present study was the investigation of Kopanisti cheese microbiota and its role in cheese quality. For this purpose, four different types of Kopanisti were produced in triplicates, all with pasteurized cow milk, with the addition of (A) the typical mesophilic species Lactococcus lactis and Lactobacillus paracasei used as starters in the production of soft spread cheeses, (B) strains of Lactobacillus acidipiscis and Lactobacillus rennini previously isolated from Kopanisti and Mana Kopanisti, (C) all the species from (A) and (B) as inoculum, and finally (D) the species from (A) and Mana Kopanisti. Physicochemical and microbiological analysis was performed for milk and cheese samples during ripening. Enumeration was performed for major groups of lactic acid bacteria (LAB), total mesophilic bacteria, yeasts as well as hygiene indicator microorganisms. Bacterial isolates from all the different LAB groups, apart from enterococci, alongside yeasts isolates, were initially grouped using repetitive sequence-based polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR) and then identified at the species level using 16S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) DNA region sequencing, respectively. Sensory evaluation was also performed for final cheese samples at the end of the ripening period (35 days). Based on the results of the classical microbiological analysis, the average counts of the total mesophilic bacteria and LAB, apart from enterococci, ranged between 7 and 10 log colony forming unit (CFU) g⁻¹, phychrotrophic bacteria, and yeast extract glucose chloramphenicol (YGC) isolates between 4 and 8 log CFU g⁻¹, while coliforms and enterococci up to 2 log CFU g⁻¹ throughout ripening in cheese samples A, C and D. In contrast, in cheese sample B, the average counts of the total mesophilic bacteria and LAB, apart from enterococci, phychrotrophic bacteria, and YGC isolates ranged between 0 and 10 log CFU g⁻¹ and coliforms and enterococci up to 2 log CFU g⁻¹. Although the microbial counts were not that different among samples, identification of the bacterial and yeasts isolates revealed the complex microbial community structure present in each cheese sample. Differences in the physicochemical characteristics among the cheese samples were also observed, with pH ranging from 4.3 to 5.3 and moisture from 49.6 to 58.0 % in the final cheese products. Interestingly, the sensory evaluation also revealed differences among samples, with cheese sample B ranking first based on the total score. Overall, the combination of these analyses highlighted the impact of different starter cultures on the Kopanisti microbiota as well as on the physicochemical and sensory characteristics of the final product.

Keywords: Kopanisti cheese, microbiota, classical microbiological analysis, physicochemical analysis

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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Statistical distributions have long been employed in the assessment of semiconductor devices and product reliability. The power function-distribution is one of the most important distributions in the modern reliability practice and can be frequently preferred over mathematically more complex distributions, such as the Weibull and the lognormal, because of its simplicity. Moreover, it may exhibit a better fit for failure data and provide more appropriate information about reliability and hazard rates in some circumstances. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk based on adoptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring criteria. The life data of the units under test is assumed to follow Mukherjee-Islam distribution. The point and interval maximum-likelihood estimations are obtained for distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: adoptive progressive hybrid censoring, competing risk, mukherjee-islam distribution, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

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Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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Authors: Hasan Husain Ali Abdulnabi

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Formative assessment feedback is increasingly practiced in higher education. Instructors allocate great time and effort to provide assessment feedback. However, educators are not sure about students’ perceptions, understanding and respond to the feedback given, as very limited research have been done about what students do with feedback and whether if they understand it. This study aims to explore students’ conceptions and perceptions of formative assessment feedback through questionnaire and focus group interviews. One hundred eighty undergraduate students doing different courses filled the questionnaire, and ten focus group discussions were conducted. Basic descriptive and content analyses were used to analyze students’ responses to the questionnaire, while grounded theory with open coding was used to analyze the focus group interviews. The study revealed that most students believe assessment feedback is helpful to improve their academic performance, and they take time to read, think and discuss their feedback. Also, the study shows most students understand the feedback given. However, students expressed that most of the written feedback given are too general, and they prefer individual oral feedback as it can lead to better understanding on how what and where to improve. The study concluded that students believe formative assessment feedback is valuable, students have reasonable understanding and respond to the feedback provided. However, this practice could be improved by requesting lecturers to make more specific feedback and communicate with students on the way of interpreting and using assessment feedback as a part of the learning and teaching process.

Keywords: assessment, feedback, formative, undergraduate, higher education

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Manzurul Alam, John Griffiths, David Holloway, Megan Paull, Anne Clear

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Background: This paper investigates the nature of risk management practices in non-profit organizations. It is argued here that the risk exposure of these organizations has increased as a result of their entrepreneurial activities. This study explores how a particular non-profit organization formulates its risk strategies in the face funding restrictions. Design/Method/Approach: The study adopts a case study approach to report the results on how a non-profit organization diversifies its activities, tackles risks arising from such activities and improves performance. Results: The findings show that the organization made structural adjustments and leadership changes which helped to adjust their risk strategies. It also reports the organizational processes to deal with risks arising from both related and unrelated diversification strategies. Implications: Any generalization from this case example needs to be taken with caution as there are significant differences between non-profit organizations operating in different sectors. Originality: The paper makes a significant contribution to the non-profit literature by highlighting the diversification strategies along with risk performance.

Keywords: risk management, performance management, non-profit organizations, financial management

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Authors: Walaa Mohammed Saeed

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Studies suggest a crosstalk between bone and metabolism through Osteocalcin (OC), a bone-derived protein that plays an important role in regulating glucose and fat metabolism. Studies relate type II Diabetes Mellitus (DMII) with Homocysteine (Hcy) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This study investigates the relationship between levels of OC, Hcy, and DMII in 85 subjects of which 50 were diabetic female patients (29–65 years) and 35 healthy controls. OC and Hcy levels were measured in fasting blood samples using immunoassay analyzer. Fasting serum glucose, glycated hemoglobin, lipid profile, were estimated by automated Siemens Dimension XP auto-analyzer. A significant increase in the frequency of low OC levels (p < 0.001) and high Hcy levels (p < 0.001) was detected in diabetic patients compared to controls (chi-squared test). Using ANOVA test, patients were divided into tertiles based on plasma OC and Hcy levels; fasting serum glucose varied inversely with OC but directly with Hcy tertiles (p=0.049, p=0.033 respectively). Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP=Log TG/HDL) predicts that diabetic patients with 36% high and 15% intermediate cardiovascular risk had increased frequency of low OC levels compared to low-risk patients (p=0.047). Another group of diabetic patients with 39% high and 11% intermediate CVD risk had increased frequency of high Hcy levels (p=0.033). A significant negative correlation existed between OC and glucose (r = -0.318; p = 0.035) while correlation between glucose level and Hcy (r = 0.851 p=0.022) was positive. Hence, low serum OC levels and high Hcy levels were associated with impaired glucose metabolism that may increase cardiovascular risk in DMII.

Keywords: osteocalcin, homocysteine, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Barbora Sutorova, Petr Teply

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There are pending discussions over an impact of global regulatory efforts on banks. In this paper we present a literature review on the profitability-risk-capital relationship in banking. Research papers dealing with this topic can be divided into two groups: the first group focusing on a capital-risk relationship and the second group analyzing a capital-profitability relationship. The first group investigates whether the imposition of stricter capital requirements reduces risk-taking incentives of banks based on a simultaneous equations model. Their model pioneered the idea that the changes in both capital and risk have endogenous and exogenous components. The results obtained by the authors indicate that changes in the capital level are positively related to the changes in asset risk. The second group of the literature concentrating solely on the relationship between the level of held capital and bank profitability is limited. Nevertheless, there are a lot of studies dealing with the banks’ profitability as such, where bank capital is very often included as an explanatory variable. Based on the literature review of dozens of relevant papers in this study, an empirical research on banks’ profitability and risk adjustment decisions under new banking rules Basel III rules can be easily undertaken.

Keywords: bank, Basel III, capital, decision making, profitability, risk, simultaneous equations model

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Authors: Yaru Meng

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The study contributes to the small but growing literature around computerized approaches to dynamic assessment (C-DA), wherein individual items are accompanied by mediating prompts. Mediation in the current computerized dynamic listening assessment (CDLA) was informed by an attribute-based mediation model (AMM) that identified the underlying L2 listening cognitive abilities and associated descriptors. The AMM served to focus mediation during C-DA on particular cognitive abilities with a goal of specifying areas of learner difficulty. 86 low-intermediate L2 English learners from a university in China completed three listening assessments, with an experimental group receiving the CLDA system and a control group a non-dynamic assessment. As an assessment, the use of the AMM in C-DA generated detailed diagnoses for each learner. In addition, both within- and between-group repeated ANOVA found greater gains at the level of specific attributes among C-DA learners over the course of a 5-week study. Directions for future research are discussed.

Keywords: computerized dynamic assessment, effectiveness, English as foreign language listening, attribute-based mediation model

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, value at risk

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Authors: Lilis Kistriyani, Dine Olisvia, Lutfa Rahmawati

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Facial mask is an important part of every beauty treatment because it will give a smooth and gentle effect on the face. This research is done to make edible film that will be applied for face mask. The main ingredient in making this edible film is purple sweet potato powder with the addition of glycerol as plasticizer. One of the ingredients in purple sweet potato is a flavonoid compound. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of increasing the amount of glycerol to flavonoids release and the effect on the physical properties and biological properties of edible film produced. The stages of this research are the making of edible film, then perform some analysis, among others, spectrophotometer UV-vis analysis to find out how many flavonoids can be released into facial skin, tensile strength and elongation of break analysis, biodegradability analysis, and microbiological analysis. The variation of edible film is the volume of glycerol that is 1 ml, 2 ml, 3 ml. The results of spectrophotometer UV-vis analysis showed that the most flavonoid release concentration is 20.33 ppm in the 2 ml glycerol variation. The best tensile strength value is 8,502 N, and the greatest elongation of break value is 14% in 1 ml glycerol variation. In the biodegradability test, the more volume of glycerol added the faster the edible film is degraded. The results of microbiological analysis showed that purple sweet potato extract has the ability to inhibit the growth of Propionibacterium acnes seen in the presence of inhibiting zone which is 18.9 mm.

Keywords: face mask, edible film, plasticizer, flavonoid

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Authors: Teresa Smith, Farrah Jacquez

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Health-risk behaviors (e.g., smoking, poor diet) directly increase the risk for chronic disease and morbidity. There is substantial evidence of a negative association between socioeconomic status (SES) and engagement in health-risk behaviors. However, due to the complexity of SES, researchers have suggested looking beyond this factor to fully understand the mechanisms that underlie engagement in health-risk behaviors. Stress is one plausible mechanism through which SES impacts health-risk behaviors. Currently, it remains unclear how stress occurring across the life course might impact health behaviors and explain the association between SES and these behaviors. To address the gaps in the literature, 172 adults between the ages of 18-49 were surveyed about their lifetime stress exposure, sociodemographic variables, and health-risk behaviors via an online recruitment portal, Prolific. Five major findings emerged from the current study. First, SES was negatively associated with engagement in health-risk behaviors and lifetime stress above and beyond current stress and other relevant demographics. Second, lifetime stress was significantly associated with health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and relevant demographic variables. Third, lifetime stress fully mediated the association between SES and health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and other demographics. Fourth, the severity of stress experienced emerged as the most significant lifetime stress variable that explains the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors. Fifth and finally, lower SES and experiencing financial and legal/crime stressors increased the likelihood of engaging in health-risk behaviors. The current study results align with previous research and suggest that stress occurring over the lifespan impacts the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors, which are in turn known to impact health outcomes. However, our findings move the current literature forward by providing a more nuanced understanding of the specific aspects of stress that influence this association. Specifically, the severity of stress experienced across the entire lifespan was the most important aspect of stress when examining the association between SES and health-risk behaviors. Further, individuals most at risk for engaging in health-risk behaviors are those of the lowest SES and experience financial and legal/crime stressors. These findings have the potential to inform interventions and policies aimed at addressing health-risk behaviors by providing a more sophisticated understanding of the impact of stress.

Keywords: stress, health behaviors, socioeconomic status, health

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Authors: Seyed Sajjad Habibi

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The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of global financial crises and corporate financial crisis on tax evasion of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, panel data in the periods of financial crisis period (2007 to 2012) and without a financial crisis (2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, and 2015) was analyzed using multivariate linear regression. The results indicate a significant relationship between the corporate financial crisis (bankruptcy risk) and tax evasion in the global financial crisis period. The results also showed a significant relationship between the corporate bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period with no global financial crisis. A significant difference was found between the bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period of the global financial crisis and that with no financial crisis so that tax evasion increased in the financial crisis period.

Keywords: global financial crisis, corporate financial crisis, bankruptcy risk, tax evasion risk, emerging markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Ina Nasto, Denada Sota, Kerol Sacaj, Brunilda Veshaj, Hajdar Kicaj

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Rocky shores are often used as models to describe the dynamics of biodiversity around the world, making them one of the most studied marine habitats and their communities. The variability in the number of species and the abundance of hard-bottom benthic animal communities on the coast of Triporti, north of the Bay of Vlora, Albania is described in relation to environmental variables using multivariate analysis. The purpose of this study is to monitor the species composition, quantitative characteristics, and seasonal variations of the benthic macroinvertebrate populations of the shallow rocky shores of the Triportit-Vlora area, as well as the assessment of the ecological condition of these populations. The rocky coast of Triport, with a length of 7 km, was divided into three sampling stations, with three transects each of 50m. The monitoring of benthic macroinvertebrates in these areas was carried out in two seasons, spring and summer (June and August 2021). In each station and sampling season, estimates of the total and average density for each species, the presence constant, and the assessment of biodiversity were calculated using the Shannon–Wiener and the Simpson index. The species composition, the quantitative characteristics of the populations, and the indicators mentioned above were analyzed in a comparative way, both between the seasons within one station and between the three stations with each other. Statistical processing of the data was carried out to analyze the changes between the seasons and between the sampling stations for the species composition, population density, as well as correlation between them. A total of 105 benthic macroinvertebrate taxa were found, dominated by Molluscs, Annelids, and Arthropods. The small density of species and the low degree of stability of the macrozoobenthic community are indicators of the poor ecological condition and environmental impact in the studied areas. Algal cover, the diversity of coastal microhabitats, and the degree of coastal exposure to waves play an important role in the characteristics of macrozoobenthos populations in the studied areas. Also, the rocky shores are of special interest because, in the infralittoral of these areas, there are dense kelp forests with Gongolaria barbata, Ericaria crinita as well as fragmented areas with Posidonia oceanica that reach the coast, priority habitats of special conservation importance in the Mediterranean.

Keywords: Macrozoobenthic communities, Shannon–Wiener, Triporti, Vlore, rocky shore

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Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

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The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

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Authors: Katalin Juhos, Enikő Papdi, Flórián Kovács, Vasileios P. Vasileiadis, Andrea Veres

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Mulching techniques can be a solution for better utilization of precipitation and irrigation water and for mitigating soil degradation and drought damages. Waste fibres as alternative biodegradable mulch materials are increasingly coming to the fore. The effect of wool mulch (WM) on water use efficiency of pepper seedlings were investigated in different soil types (sand, clay loam, peat) in a pot experiment. Two semi-field experiments were also set up to investigate the effect of WM-plant interaction on sweet pepper yield in comparison with agro-textile and straw mulches. Soil parameters (moisture, temperature, DHA, β-glucosidase enzymes, permanganate-oxidizable carbon) were measured during the growing season. The effect of WM on yield and biomass was more significant with less frequent irrigation and the greater the water capacity of soils. The microbiological activity was significantly higher in the presence of plants, because of the water retention of WM, the metabolic products of roots and the more balanced soil temperature caused by plants. On the sandy soil, the straw mulch had a significantly better effect on microbiological parameters and yields than the agro-textile and WM. WM is a sustainable practice for improving soil biological parameters and water use efficiency on soils with a higher water capacity.

Keywords: β-glucosidase, DHA enzyme activity; labile carbon, straw mulch; plastic mulch, evapotranspira-tion coefficient, soil temperature

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Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi

Abstract:

Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.

Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability

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Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

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In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

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Authors: Merih Şimşek, Recep Keşli, Özgül Çetinkaya, Cengiz Demir, Adem Aslan

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Bacteremia is a clinical entity with high morbidity and mortality rates when immediate diagnose, or treatment cannot be achieved. Microorganisms which can cause sepsis or bacteremia are easily isolated from blood cultures. Fifty-five positive blood cultures were included in this study. Microorganisms in 55 blood cultures were isolated by conventional microbiological methods; afterwards, microorganisms were defined in terms of the phenotypic aspects by the Vitek-2 system. The same microorganisms in all blood culture samples were defined in terms of genotypic aspects again by Multiplex-PCR DNA Low-Density Microarray System. At the end of the identification process, the DNA microarray system’s success in identification was evaluated based on the Vitek-2 system. The Vitek-2 system and DNA Microarray system were able to identify the same microorganisms in 53 samples; on the other hand, different microorganisms were identified in the 2 blood cultures by DNA Microarray system. The microorganisms identified by Vitek-2 system were found to be identical to 96.4 % of microorganisms identified by DNA Microarrays system. In addition to bacteria identified by Vitek-2, the presence of a second bacterium has been detected in 5 blood cultures by the DNA Microarray system. It was identified 18 of 55 positive blood culture as E.coli strains with both Vitek 2 and DNA microarray systems. The same identification numbers were found 6 and 8 for Acinetobacter baumanii, 10 and 10 for K.pneumoniae, 5 and 5 for S.aureus, 7 and 11 for Enterococcus spp, 5 and 5 for P.aeruginosa, 2 and 2 for C.albicans respectively. According to these results, DNA Microarray system requires both a technical device and experienced staff support; besides, it requires more expensive kits than Vitek-2. However, this method should be used in conjunction with conventional microbiological methods. Thus, large microbiology laboratories will produce faster, more sensitive and more successful results in the identification of cultured microorganisms.

Keywords: microarray, Vitek-2, blood culture, bacteremia

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Authors: Sri Rejeki Dwi Astuti, Suyanta

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The demanding of the asessment in learning process was impact by policy changes. Nowadays, the assessment not only emphasizes knowledge, but also skills and attitude. However, in reality there are many obstacles in measuring them. This paper aimed to describe how to develop instrument of integrated assessment as alternative assessment to measure critical thinking skills and science process skills in electrolyte solution and to describe instrument’s characteristic such as logic validity and construct validity. This instrument development used test development model by McIntire. Development process data was acquired based on development test step and was analyzed by qualitative analysis. Initial product was observed by three peer reviewer and six expert judgment (two subject matter expert, two evaluation expert and two chemistry teacher) to acquire logic validity test. Logic validity test was analyzed using Aiken’s formula. The estimation of construct validity was analyzed by exploratory factor analysis. Result showed that integrated assessment instrument has 0,90 of Aiken’s Value and all item in integrated assessment asserted valid according to construct validity.

Keywords: construct validity, critical thinking skills, integrated assessment instrument, logic validity, science process skills

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Authors: Julinda Keçi

Abstract:

In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public-private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and user-oriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: Construction, Design, Economic, Legal, Market, Natural, Operation, Political, Project finance, Project selection and Relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.

Keywords: construction, infrastructure, public private partnerships, risks

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Syeda Fahria Hoque Mimmi, Aparna Islam

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Genetically engineered (GE) plants are the need of time for increased demand for food. A complete set of regulations need to be followed from the development of a GE plant to its release into the environment. The whole regulation system is categorized into separate stages for maintaining the proper biosafety. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is one of such crucial stages in the whole process. ERA identifies potential risks and their impacts through science-based evaluation where it is done in a case-by-case study. All the countries which deal with GE plants follow specific guidelines to conduct a successful ERA. In this study, ERA guidelines of 4 developing and 4 developed countries, including Bangladesh, were compared. ERA guidelines of countries such as India, Canada, Australia, the European Union, Argentina, Brazil, and the US were considered as a model to conduct the comparison study with Bangladesh. Initially, ten parameters were detected to compare the required data and information among all the guidelines. Surprisingly, an adequate amount of data and information requirements (e.g., if the intended modification/new traits of interest has been achieved or not, the growth habit of GE plants, consequences of any potential gene flow upon the cultivation of GE plants to sexually compatible plant species, potential adverse effects on the human health, etc.) matched between all the countries. However, a few differences in data requirement (e.g., agronomic conventions of non-transformed plants, applicants should clearly describe experimental procedures followed, etc.) were also observed in the study. Moreover, it was found that only a few countries provide instructions on the quality of the data used for ERA. If these similarities are recognized in a more framed manner, then the approval pathway of GE plants can be shared.

Keywords: GE plants, ERA, harmonization, ERA guidelines, Information and data requirements

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

Abstract:

Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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