Search results for: equation error

Authors: Tai Yuan Yu, Pei-Jen Wang

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A simulation scheme of rotational motions for predictions of bump-type gas foil bearings operating at steady-state is proposed; and, the scheme is based on multi-physics coupling computer aided engineering packages modularized with computational fluid dynamic model and structure elasticity model to numerically solve the dynamic equation of motions of a hydrodynamic loaded shaft supported by an elastic bump foil. The bump foil is assumed to be modelled as infinite number of Hookean springs mounted on stiff wall. Hence, the top foil stiffness is constant on the periphery of the bearing housing. The hydrodynamic pressure generated by the air film lubrication transfers to the top foil and induces elastic deformation needed to be solved by a finite element method program, whereas the pressure profile applied on the top foil must be solved by a finite element method program based on Reynolds Equation in lubrication theory. As a result, the equation of motions for the bearing shaft are iteratively solved via coupling of the two finite element method programs simultaneously. In conclusion, the two-dimensional center trajectory of the shaft plus the deformation map on top foil at constant rotational speed are calculated for comparisons with the experimental results.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, fluid structure interaction multi-physics simulations, gas foil bearing, load capacity

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Authors: Kudzanayi Chiteka, Wellington Makondo

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The whole world is on the drive to go green owing to the negative effects of burning fossil fuels. Therefore, there is immediate need to identify and utilise alternative renewable energy sources. Among these energy sources solar energy is one of the most dominant in Zimbabwe. Solar power plants used to generate electricity are entirely dependent on solar radiation. For planning purposes, solar radiation values should be known in advance to make necessary arrangements to minimise the negative effects of the absence of solar radiation due to cloud cover and other naturally occurring phenomena. This research focused on the prediction of Global Horizontal Irradiation values for the sixth day given values for the past five days. Artificial intelligence techniques were used in this research. Three models were developed based on Support Vector Machines, Radial Basis Function, and Feed Forward Back-Propagation Artificial neural network. Results revealed that Support Vector Machines gives the best results compared to the other two with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2%, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.05kWh/m²/day root mean square (RMS) error of 0.15kWh/m²/day and a coefficient of determination of 0.990. The other predictive models had prediction accuracies of MAPEs of 4.5% and 6% respectively for Radial Basis Function and Feed Forward Back-propagation Artificial neural network. These two models also had coefficients of determination of 0.975 and 0.970 respectively. It was found that prediction of GHI values for the future days is possible using artificial intelligence-based predictive models.

Keywords: solar energy, global horizontal irradiation, artificial intelligence, predictive models

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Authors: Sizar Abed Mohammed, Zahraa Ghazi Sadeeq

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The use of the classic method, least squares (OLS) to estimate the linear regression parameters, when they are available assumptions, and capabilities that have good characteristics, such as impartiality, minimum variance, consistency, and so on. The development of alternative statistical techniques to estimate the parameters, when the data are contaminated with outliers. These are powerful methods (or resistance). In this paper, three of robust methods are studied, which are: Maximum likelihood type estimate M-estimator, Modified Maximum likelihood type estimate MM-estimator and Least Trimmed Squares LTS-estimator, and their results are compared with OLS method. These methods applied to real data taken from Duhok company for manufacturing furniture, the obtained results compared by using the criteria: Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Sum of Absolute Error (MSAE). Important conclusions that this study came up with are: a number of typical values detected by using four methods in the furniture line and very close to the data. This refers to the fact that close to the normal distribution of standard errors, but typical values in the doors line data, using OLS less than that detected by the powerful ways. This means that the standard errors of the distribution are far from normal departure. Another important conclusion is that the estimated values of the parameters by using the lifeline is very far from the estimated values using powerful methods for line doors, gave LTS- destined better results using standard MSE, and gave the M- estimator better results using standard MAPE. Moreover, we noticed that using standard MSAE, and MM- estimator is better. The programs S-plus (version 8.0, professional 2007), Minitab (version 13.2) and SPSS (version 17) are used to analyze the data.

Keywords: Robest, LTS, M estimate, MSE

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Authors: M. Najafi, S. Bab, F. Rahimi Dehgolan

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The motion of an axially moving beam with rotating prismatic joint with a tip mass on the end is analyzed to investigate the nonlinear vibration and dynamic stability of the beam. The beam is moving with a harmonic axially and rotating velocity about a constant mean velocity. A time-dependent partial differential equation and boundary conditions with the aid of the Hamilton principle are derived to describe the beam lateral deflection. After the partial differential equation is discretized by the Galerkin method, the method of multiple scales is applied to obtain analytical solutions. Frequency response curves are plotted for the super harmonic resonances of the first and the second modes. The effects of non-linear term and mean velocity are investigated on the steady state response of the axially moving beam. The results are validated with numerical simulations.

Keywords: super harmonic resonances, non-linear vibration, axially moving beam, Galerkin method

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Authors: Maria Bonolo Mathevula

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Background: Children are important members of communities playing major role in the future of any given country (Pera, Fails, Gelsomini, &Garzotto, 2018). Visual Perceptual Skills (VPSs) in children are important health aspect of early childhood development through the Foundation Phases in school. Subsequently, children should undergo visual screening before commencement of schooling for early diagnosis ofVPSs anomalies because the primary role of VPSs is to capacitate children with academic performance in general. Aim : The aim of this study was to determine the anomalies of visual VPSs amongst school children in Foundation Phase. The study’s objectives were to determine the prevalence of VPSs anomalies amongst school children in Foundation Phase; Determine the relationship between children’s academic and VPSs anomalies; and to investigate the relationship between VPSs anomalies and refractive error. Methodology: This study was a mixed method whereby triangulated qualitative (interviews) and quantitative (questionnaire and clinical data) was used. This was, therefore, descriptive by nature. The study’s target population was school children in Foundation Phase. The study followed purposive sampling method. School children in Foundation Phase were purposively sampled to form part of this study provided their parents have given a signed the consent. Data was collected by the use of standardized interviews; questionnaire; clinical data card, and TVPS standard data card. Results: Although the study is still ongoing, the preliminary study outcome based on data collected from one of the Foundation Phases have suggested the following:While VPSs anomalies is not prevalent, it, however, have indirect relationship with children’s academic performance in Foundation phase; Notably, VPSs anomalies and refractive error are directly related since majority of children with refractive error, specifically compound hyperopic astigmatism, failed most subtests of TVPS standard tests. Conclusion: Based on the study’s preliminary findings, it was clear that optometrists still have a lot to do in as far as researching on VPSs is concerned. Furthermore, the researcher recommends that optometrist, as the primary healthcare professionals, should also conduct the school-readiness pre-assessment on children before commencement of their grades in Foundation phase.

Keywords: foundation phase, visual perceptual skills, school children, refractive error

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Authors: Hamidreza Hoshyarmanesh, Benjamin Durante, Alex Irwin, Sanju Lama, Kourosh Zareinia, Garnette R. Sutherland

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This study reports on a proposed method to evaluate the accuracy and precision of Excalibur I, a neurosurgery-specific haptic hand controller, designed and developed at Project neuroArm. Having an efficient and successful robot-assisted telesurgery is considerably contingent on how accurate and precise a haptic hand controller (master/local robot) would be able to interpret the kinematic indices of motion, i.e., position and orientation, from the surgeon’s upper limp to the slave/remote robot. A proposed test rig is designed and manufactured according to standard ASTM F2554-10 to determine the accuracy and precision range of Excalibur I at four different locations within its workspace: central workspace, extreme forward, far left and far right. The test rig is metrologically characterized by a coordinate measuring machine (accuracy and repeatability < ± 5 µm). Only the serial linkage of the haptic device is examined due to the use of the Structural Length Index (SLI). The results indicate that accuracy decreases by moving from the workspace central area towards the borders of the workspace. In a comparative study, Excalibur I performs on par with the PHANToM PremiumTM 3.0 and more accurate/precise than the PHANToM PremiumTM 1.5. The error in Cartesian coordinate system shows a dominant component in one direction (δx, δy or δz) for the movements on horizontal, vertical and inclined surfaces. The average error magnitude of three attempts is recorded, considering all three error components. This research is the first promising step to quantify the kinematic performance of Excalibur I.

Keywords: accuracy, advanced metrology, hand controller, precision, robot-assisted surgery, tele-operation, workspace

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Authors: Biruhi Tesfaye, Avinash M. Potdar

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The laboratory test process to determine the California bearing ratio (CBR) of black cotton soils is not only overpriced but also time-consuming as well. Hence advanced prediction of CBR plays a significant role as it is applicable In pavement design. The prediction of CBR of treated soil was executed by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) which is a Computational tool based on the properties of the biological neural system. To observe CBR values, combined eggshell and waste glass was added to soil as 4, 8, 12, and 16 % of the weights of the soil samples. Accordingly, the laboratory related tests were conducted to get the required best model. The maximum CBR value found at 5.8 at 8 % of eggshell waste glass powder addition. The model was developed using CBR as an output layer variable. CBR was considered as a function of the joint effect of liquid limit, plastic limit, and plastic index, optimum moisture content and maximum dry density. The best model that has been found was ANN with 5, 6 and 1 neurons in the input, hidden and output layer correspondingly. The performance of selected ANN has been 0.99996, 4.44E-05, 0.00353 and 0.0067 which are correlation coefficient (R), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) respectively. The research presented or summarized above throws light on future scope on stabilization with waste glass combined with different percentages of eggshell that leads to the economical design of CBR acceptable to pavement sub-base or base, as desired.

Keywords: CBR, artificial neural network, liquid limit, plastic limit, maximum dry density, OMC

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Authors: Sy, Melecio Jr

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The decision to adopt vertical integration (VI) is firm-specific, but there is a common practice among businesses in an industry to maximize the massive potential benefits of VI. This study aims to determine VI adoption in the restaurant industry in Davao City. Using a two-step sampling process, the study used a validated survey questionnaire among 264 restaurant owners and managers randomly selected and geographically classified. It is a quantitative study where the data were subjected to a structural equation model (SEM). The results revealed that VI is present but limited to procurement, production, restaurant services, and online marketing. Raw materials were outsourced while delivery to customers through third-party delivery services. VI slowly increased over ten years except for online marketing, which has grown significantly in a few years. The endogenous and exogenous variables were correlated and established the linear regression model. The SEM's best fit model revealed that strategic motives (SMOT) and market factors (MFAC) influenced VI adoption while MFAC is the best predictor. Favorable market factors may lead restaurants to adopt VI. It is, thus, recommended for restaurants to institutionalize strategic management, quantify the impact of double marginalization in future studies as a reason for VI and conduct this study during the new normal to see the influence of business efficiencies and firm economies on VI adoption.

Keywords: business efficiencies, business management, davao city, firm economies, market factors, philippines, strategic motives, structural equation model, supply chain, vertical integration adoption

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Authors: Eugene Kogan

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We analytically study the localized running waves in the discrete Josephson transmission lines (JTL), constructed from Josephson junctions (JJ) and capacitors. The quasi-continuum approximation reduces the calculation of the running wave properties to the problem of equilibrium of an elastic rod in the potential field. Making additional approximations, we reduce the problem to the motion of the fictitious Newtonian particle in the potential well. We show that there exist running waves in the form of supersonic kinks and solitons and calculate their velocities and profiles. We show that the nonstationary smooth waves, which are small perturbations on the homogeneous non-zero background, are described by Korteweg-de Vries equation, and those on zero background -by the modified Korteweg-de Vries equation. We also study the effect of dissipation on the running waves in JTL and find that in the presence of the resistors, shunting the JJ and/or in series with the ground capacitors, the only possible stationary running waves are the shock waves, whose profiles are also found.

Keywords: Josephson transmission line, shocks, solitary waves, nonlinear waves

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Authors: Mohammad J. Rezai, Fereshteh Davarpanah

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Producing a text in a language which is not one’s mother tongue can be a demanding task for language learners. Examining lexical errors committed by EFL learners is a challenging area of investigation which can shed light on the process of second language acquisition. Despite the considerable number of investigations into grammatical errors, few studies have tackled formal and semantic errors of lexis committed by EFL learners. The current study aimed at examining Persian learners’ formal and semantic errors of lexis in English. To this end, 60 students at three different proficiency levels were asked to write on 10 different topics in 10 separate sessions. Finally, 600 essays written by Persian EFL learners were collected, acting as the corpus of the study. An error taxonomy comprising formal and semantic errors was selected to analyze the corpus. The formal category covered misselection and misformation errors, while the semantic errors were classified into lexical, collocational and lexicogrammatical categories. Each category was further classified into subcategories depending on the identified errors. The results showed that there were 2583 errors in the corpus of 9600 words, among which, 2030 formal errors and 553 semantic errors were identified. The most frequent errors in the corpus included formal error commitment (78.6%), which were more prevalent at the advanced level (42.4%). The semantic errors (21.4%) were more frequent at the low intermediate level (40.5%). Among formal errors of lexis, the highest number of errors was devoted to misformation errors (98%), while misselection errors constituted 2% of the errors. Additionally, no significant differences were observed among the three semantic error subcategories, namely collocational, lexical choice and lexicogrammatical. The results of the study can shed light on the challenges faced by EFL learners in the second language acquisition process.

Keywords: collocational errors, lexical errors, Persian EFL learners, semantic errors

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Authors: Fang Ye, Han Yu, Yibing Li

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Radio interference is one of the major concerns in using the global positioning system (GPS) for civilian and military applications. Interference signals are produced not only through all electronic systems but also illegal jammers. Among different types of interferences, continuous wave (CW) interference has strong adverse impacts on the quality of the received signal. In this paper, we make more detailed analysis for CW interference effects on GPS signal quality. Based on the C/A code spectrum lines, the influence of CW interference on the acquisition performance of GPS receivers is further analysed. This influence is supported by simulation results using GPS software receiver. As the most important user parameter of GPS receivers, the mathematical expression of bit error probability is also derived in the presence of CW interference, and the expression is consistent with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The research on CW interference provides some theoretical gist and new thoughts on monitoring the radio noise environment and improving the anti-jamming ability of GPS receivers.

Keywords: GPS, CW interference, acquisition performance, bit error probability, Monte Carlo

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Authors: Maatoug Hassine, Mourad Hrizi

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In this paper, we consider a geometric inverse source problem for the heat equation with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary data. We will reconstruct the exact form of the unknown source term from additional boundary conditions. Our motivation is to detect the location, the size and the shape of source support. We present a one-shot algorithm based on the Kohn-Vogelius formulation and the topological gradient method. The geometric inverse source problem is formulated as a topology optimization one. A topological sensitivity analysis is derived from a source function. Then, we present a non-iterative numerical method for the geometric reconstruction of the source term with unknown support using a level curve of the topological gradient. Finally, we give several examples to show the viability of our presented method.

Keywords: geometric inverse source problem, heat equation, topological optimization, topological sensitivity, Kohn-Vogelius formulation

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error

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Authors: J. K. Chawla, S. K. Jain, M. K. Mishra

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Ion-acoustic double layers have been studied in magnetized plasma. The modified Korteweg-de Vries (m-KdV) equation using reductive perturbation method is derived. It is found that for the selected set of parameters, the system supports rarefactive double layers depending upon the value of nonthermal parameters. It is also found that the magnetization affects only the width of the double layer. For a given set of parameter values, increases in the magnetization and the obliqueness angle (θ) between wave vector and magnetic field, affect the width of the double layers, however the amplitude of the double layers have no effect. An increase in the values of nonthermal parameter decreases the amplitude of the rarefactive double layer. The effect of the ion temperature ratio on the amplitude and width of the double layers are also discussed in detail.

Keywords: ion-acoustic double layers, magnetized electronegative plasma, reductive perturbation method, the modified Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation

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Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

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This study examines adaptation measures and factors that influence adaptation decisions in Bequia by using multiple linear regression and a structural equation model. Using survey data, the results suggest that households are knowledgeable and concerned about climate change but lack knowledge about the measures needed to adapt. The findings from the SEM suggest that a positive relationship exist between vulnerability and adaptation, vulnerability and perception, along with a negative relationship between perception and adaptation. This suggests that being aware of the terms associated with climate change and knowledge about climate change is insufficient for implementing adaptation measures; instead the risk and importance placed on climate change, vulnerability experienced with household flooding, drainage and expected threat of future sea level are the main factors that influence the adaptation decision. The results obtained in this study are beneficial to all as adaptation requires a collective effort by stakeholders.

Keywords: adaptation, Bequia, multiple linear regression, structural equation model

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Authors: Hamouda M. Mousa, M. Obaid, Chan Hee Park, Cheol Sang Kim

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The rate of copper cementation on iron rod was investigated. The study was mainly dedicated to illustrate the effect of application of electromagnetic field (EMF) on the rate of cementation. The magnetic flux was placed parallel to the iron rod and different magnetic field strength was studied. The results showed that without EMF, the rate of mass transfer was correlated by the equation: Sh= 1.36 Re0. 098 Sc0.33. The application of EMF enhanced the time required to reach high percentage copper cementation by 50%. The rate of mass transfer was correlated by the equation: Sh= 2.29 Re0. 95 Sc0.33, with applying EMF. This work illustrates that the enhancement of copper recovery in presence of EMF is due to the induced motion of Fe+n in the solution which is limited in the range of rod rotation speed of 300~900 rpm. The calculation of power consumption of EMF showed that although the application of EMF partially reduced the cementation time, the reduction of power consumption due to utilization of magnetic field is comparable to the increase in power consumed by introducing magnetic field of 2462 A T/m.

Keywords: copper cementation, electromagnetic field, copper ions, iron cylinder

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Authors: Otman Jai, Otman Elhajjaji, Jaouad Tajmouati

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Several neutronic calculation codes must be used to solve the equation for different levels of discretization which all necessitate a specific modelisation. This chain of such models, known as a calculation scheme, leads to the knowledge of the neutron flux in a reactor from its own geometry, its isotopic compositions and a cross-section library. Being small in size, the 'Slowpoke-2' reactor is difficult to model due to the importance of the leaking neutrons. In the paper, the simulation model is presented (geometry, cross section library, assumption, etc.), and the results obtained by DRAGON4/DONJON4 codes were compared to the calculations performed with Monte Carlo code MCNP using detailed geometrical model of the reactor and the experimental data. Criticality calculations have been performed to verify and validate the model. Since created model properly describes the reactor core, it can be used for calculations of reactor core parameters and for optimization of research reactor application.

Keywords: transport equation, Dragon4, Donjon4, neutron flux, effective multiplication factor

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Authors: Uyi Kizito Ehigiamusoe

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The paper examines the impact of money market on economic growth in Nigeria using data for the period 1980-2012. Econometrics techniques such as Ordinary Least Squares Method, Johanson’s Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model were used to examine both the long-run and short-run relationship. Evidence from the study suggest that though a long-run relationship exists between money market and economic growth, but the present state of the Nigerian money market is significantly and negatively related to economic growth. The link between the money market and the real sector of the economy remains very weak. This implies that the market is not yet developed enough to produce the needed growth that will propel the Nigerian economy because of several challenges. It was therefore recommended that government should create the appropriate macroeconomic policies, legal framework and sustain the present reforms with a view to developing the market so as to promote productive activities, investments, and ultimately economic growth.

Keywords: economic growth, investments, money market, money market challenges, money market instruments

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Authors: F. Z. Mahi, H. Marinchio, C. Palermo, L. Varani

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We propose an analytical approach for the admittance response calculation of the high mobility InGaAs channel transistors. The development of the small-signal admittance takes into account the longitudinal and transverse electric fields through a pseudo two-dimensional approximation of the Poisson equation. The total currents and the potentials matrix relation between the gate and the drain terminals determine the frequency-dependent small-signal admittance response. The analytical results show that the admittance spectrum exhibits a series of resonant peaks corresponding to the excitation of plasma waves. The appearance of the resonance is discussed and analyzed as functions of the channel length and the temperature. The model can be used, on one hand, to control the appearance of plasma resonances, and on the other hand, can give significant information about the admittance phase frequency dependence.

Keywords: small-signal admittance, Poisson equation, currents and potentials matrix, the drain and the gate terminals, analytical model

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Authors: Arkadiusz Mezyk, Wojciech Klein, Mariusz Pawlak, Jacek Gnilka

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The aortic heart valve stents should fulfill many criterions. These criteria have a strong impact on the geometrical shape of the stent. Usually, the final construction of stent is a result of many year experience and knowledge. Depending on patents claims, different stent shapes are produced by different companies. This causes difficulties for biomechanics engineers narrowing the domain of feasible solutions. The paper present optimization method for stent geometry defining by a specific analytical equation based on various mathematical functions. This formula was implemented as APDL script language in ANSYS finite element environment. For the purpose of simulation tests, a few parameters were separated from developed equation. The application of the genetic algorithms allows finding the best solution due to selected objective function. Obtained solution takes into account parameters such as radial force, compression ratio and coefficient of expansion on the transverse axial.

Keywords: aortic stent, optimization process, geometry, finite element method

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Authors: Roger L. Goodwin

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The US Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) measures hundreds of items in the US economy. Many social programs and government benefits index to the CPIs. In mid to late 1990, much research went into changes to the CPI by a Congressional Advisory Committee. One thing can be said from the research is that, aside from there are alternative estimators for the CPI; any fundamental change to the CPI will affect many government programs. The purpose of this project is to modernize an existing process. This paper will show the development of a small, visual, software product that documents the Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) for long-term contracts. The existing workbook does not provide the flexibility to calculate EPAs where the base-month and the option-month are different. Nor does the workbook provide automated error checking. The small, visual, software product provides the additional flexibility and error checking. This paper presents the feedback to project.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index, Economic Price Adjustment, contracts, visualization tools, database, reports, forms, event procedures

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Authors: Prathuang Usaborisut, Dithaporn Thungsotanon

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Soil compaction induced by a tractor towing trailer becomes a major problem associated to sugarcane productivity. Soil beneath the tractor’s tire is not only under compressing stress but also shearing stress. Therefore, in order to help to understand such effects on soil, this research aimed to determine stress state in soil and predict compaction of soil under a tractive tire. The octahedral stress ratios under the tires were higher than one and much higher under higher draft forces. Moreover, the ratio was increasing with increase of number of tire’s passage. Soil compaction model was developed using data acquired from triaxial tests. The model was then used to predict soil bulk density under tractive tire. The maximum error was about 4% at 15 cm depth under lower draft force and tended to increase with depth and draft force. At depth of 30 cm and under higher draft force, the maximum error was about 16%.

Keywords: draft force, soil compaction model, stress state, tractive tire

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Authors: Mahmoud Lot

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In this article, we will discuss the solution of elliptic optimal control problem. First, by using the nite element method, we obtain the discrete form of the problem. The obtained discrete problem is actually a large scale constrained optimization problem. Solving this optimization problem with traditional methods is difficult and requires a lot of CPU time and memory. But split Bergman method converts the constrained problem to an unconstrained, and hence it saves time and memory requirement. Then we use the split Bregman method for solving this problem, and examples show the speed and accuracy of split Bregman methods for solving these types of problems. We also use the SQP method for solving the examples and compare with the split Bregman method.

Keywords: Split Bregman Method, optimal control with elliptic partial differential equation constraint, finite element method

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Authors: Luis C. Parra

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The significant wave height prediction is an issue of great interest in the field of coastal activities because of the non-linear behavior of the wave height and its complexity of prediction. This study aims to present a machine learning model to forecast the significant wave height of the oceanographic wave measuring buoys anchored at Mooloolaba of the Queensland Government Data. Modeling was performed by a multilayer perceptron neural network-genetic algorithm (GA-MLP), considering Relu(x) as the activation function of the MLPNN. The GA is in charge of optimized the MLPNN hyperparameters (learning rate, hidden layers, neurons, and activation functions) and wrapper feature selection for the window width size. Results are assessed using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The GAMLPNN algorithm was performed with a population size of thirty individuals for eight generations for the prediction optimization of 5 steps forward, obtaining a performance evaluation of 0.00104 MSE, 0.03222 RMSE, 0.02338 MAE, and 0.71163% of MAPE. The results of the analysis suggest that the MLPNNGA model is effective in predicting significant wave height in a one-step forecast with distant time windows, presenting 0.00014 MSE, 0.01180 RMSE, 0.00912 MAE, and 0.52500% of MAPE with 0.99940 of correlation factor. The GA-MLP algorithm was compared with the ARIMA forecasting model, presenting better performance criteria in all performance criteria, validating the potential of this algorithm.

Keywords: significant wave height, machine learning optimization, multilayer perceptron neural networks, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Taehyun Kim, Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim

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Since the rapid economic development, Korea has recently entered a period of low growth due to population decline and aging. Due to the urbanization around the metropolitan area and the hollowing of local cities, the ecological capacity of a city is decreasing while ecological footprints are increasing, requiring a compact space plan for maintaining urban functions. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between urban spatial structure and residents' ecological footprints for sustainable spatial planning. To do this, we try to analyze the relationship between intra-urban spatial structure, such as net/gross density and service accessibility, and resident ecological footprints of food, housing, transportation, goods and services through survey and structural equation modeling. The results of the study will be useful in establishing an implementation plan for sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially for sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11) and responsible consumption and production (SDG 12) in the future.

Keywords: ecological footprint, structural equation modeling, survey, sustainability, urban spatial structure

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Authors: Sanjai Sureshkumar, Sathish G. Kumar, P. V. V. Sathyanarayana

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For e-gear drivetrain, the transmission error and the resulting variation in mesh stiffness is one of the main source of excitation in High performance Electric Vehicle. These vibrations are transferred through the shaft to the bearings and then to the e-Gear drive housing eventually radiating noise. A parametrical model developed in 1-D system simulation by optimizing the micro and macro geometry along with bearing properties and oil filtration to achieve least transmission error and high contact ratio. Histogram analysis is performed to condense the actual road load data into condensed duty cycle to find the bearing forces. The structural vibration generated by these forces will be simulated in a nonlinear solver obtaining the normal surface velocity of the housing and the results will be carried forward to Acoustic software wherein a virtual environment of the surrounding (actual testing scenario) with accurate microphone position will be maintained to predict the sound pressure level of radiated noise and directivity plot of the e-Gear Drive. Order analysis will be carried out to find the root cause of the vibration and whine noise. Broadband spectrum will be checked to find the rattle noise source. Further, with the available results, the design will be optimized, and the next loop of simulation will be performed to build a best e-Gear Drive on NVH aspect. Structural analysis will be also carried out to check the robustness of the e-Gear Drive.

Keywords: 1-D system simulation, contact ratio, e-Gear, mesh stiffness, micro and macro geometry, transmission error, radiated noise, NVH

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Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan

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In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.

Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure

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Authors: Samy A. Khalil, U. Ali Rahoma

Abstract:

The measurements of solar radiation, satellite data has been routinely utilize to estimate solar energy. However, the temporal coverage of satellite data has some limits. The reanalysis, also known as "retrospective analysis" of the atmosphere's parameters, is produce by fusing the output of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models with observation data from a variety of sources, including ground, and satellite, ship, and aircraft observation. The result is a comprehensive record of the parameters affecting weather and climate. The effectiveness of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North Africa was evaluate against high-quality surfaces measured using statistical analysis. Estimating the distribution of global solar radiation (GSR) over five chosen areas in North Africa through ten-years during the period time from 2011 to 2020. To investigate seasonal change in dataset performance, a seasonal statistical analysis was conduct, which showed a considerable difference in mistakes throughout the year. By altering the temporal resolution of the data used for comparison, the performance of the dataset is alter. Better performance is indicate by the data's monthly mean values, but data accuracy is degraded. Solar resource assessment and power estimation are discuses using the ERA-5 solar radiation data. The average values of mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the reanalysis data of solar radiation vary from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.055 to 0.178, and 0.0145 to 0.198 respectively during the period time in the present research. The correlation coefficient (R2) varies from 0.93 to 99% during the period time in the present research. This research's objective is to provide a reliable representation of the world's solar radiation to aid in the use of solar energy in all sectors.

Keywords: solar energy, ERA-5 analysis data, global solar radiation, North Africa

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Authors: Elena Tkachenko, Elena Rogova, Daria Koval

Abstract:

The paper examines the ways of cash flows forecasting in the dynamic external environment. The so-called new reality in economy lowers the predictability of the companies’ performance indicators due to the lack of long-term steady trends in external conditions of development and fast changes in the markets. The traditional methods based on the trend analysis lead to a very high error of approximation. The macroeconomic situation for the last 10 years is defined by continuous consequences of financial crisis and arising of another one. In these conditions, the instruments of forecasting on the basis of fuzzy sets show good results. The fuzzy sets based models turn out to lower the error of approximation to acceptable level and to provide the companies with reliable cash flows estimation that helps to reach the financial stability. In the paper, the applicability of the model of cash flows forecasting based on fuzzy logic was analyzed.

Keywords: cash flow, industrial enterprise, forecasting, fuzzy sets

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Authors: Yun-Xuan Tang, Pei-Yuan Liu, Kun-Mu Lu, Min-Tsung Tseng, Liang-Kuang Chen, Yuh-Feng Tsai, Ching-Wen Lee, Jay Wu

Abstract:

Breast cancer is predominant of malignant tumors in females. The increase in the glandular density increases the risk of breast cancer. BI-RADS is a frequently used density indicator in mammography; however, it significantly overestimates the glandularity. Therefore, it is very important to accurately and quantitatively assess the glandularity by mammography. In this study, 20%, 30% and 50% glandularity phantoms were exposed using a mammography machine at 28, 30 and 31 kVp, and 30, 55, 80 and 105 mAs, respectively. The regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn to assess the gray level. The relationship between the glandularity and gray level under various compression thicknesses, kVp, and mAs was established by the multivariable linear regression. A phantom verification was performed with automatic exposure control (AEC). The regression equation was obtained with an R-square value of 0.928. The average gray levels of the verification phantom were 8708, 8660 and 8434 for 0.952, 0.963 and 0.985 g/cm3, respectively. The percent differences of glandularity to the regression equation were 3.24%, 2.75% and 13.7%. We concluded that the proposed method could be clinically applied in mammography to improve the glandularity estimation and further increase the importance of breast cancer screening.

Keywords: mammography, glandularity, gray value, BI-RADS

Procedia PDF Downloads 486