Search results for: open loop simulation

Authors: Huiqiang Yang, Domingo Santana

Abstract:

Reducing parasitic power consumption of concentrating solar power plants is the main challenge to increase the overall efficiency, particularly for molten salt tower technology. One of the most effective approaches to reduce the parasitic power consumption is to implement a natural draft dry cooling system instead of the standard utilized mechanical draft dry cooling system. In this paper, a thermo-economic analysis of a natural draft direct cooling system was performed based on a 100MWe commercial scale molten salt power plant. In this configuration with a natural draft direct cooling system, the exhaust steam from steam turbine flows directly to the heat exchanger bundles inside the natural draft dry cooling tower, which eliminates the power consumption of circulation pumps or fans, although the cooling tower shadows a portion of the heliostat field. The simulation results also show that compared to a mechanical draft cooling system the annual solar field efficiency is decreased by about 0.2% due to the shadow, which is equal to a reduction of approximately 13% of the solar field area. As a contrast, reducing the solar field size by 13% in purpose in a molten salt power plant with a natural draft drying cooling system actually will lead to a reduction of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by about 4.06% without interfering the power generated.

Keywords: molten salt power tower, natural draft dry cooling, parasitic power consumption, commercial scale

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Rouhallah Bagheri, Morteza Mahmoudi, Hadi Moheb-Alizadeh

Abstract:

In this paper, we develop a supplier selection and order allocation multi-objective model in stochastic environment in which purchasing cost, percentage of delivered items with delay and percentage of rejected items provided by each supplier are supposed to be stochastic parameters following any arbitrary probability distribution. To do so, we use dependent chance programming (DCP) that maximizes probability of the event that total purchasing cost, total delivered items with delay and total rejected items are less than or equal to pre-determined values given by decision maker. After transforming the above mentioned stochastic multi-objective programming problem into a stochastic single objective problem using minimum deviation method, we apply a genetic algorithm to get the later single objective problem solved. The employed genetic algorithm performs a simulation process in order to calculate the stochastic objective function as its fitness function. At the end, we explore the impact of stochastic parameters on the given solution via a sensitivity analysis exploiting coefficient of variation. The results show that as stochastic parameters have greater coefficients of variation, the value of objective function in the stochastic single objective programming problem is worsened.

Keywords: dependent chance programming, genetic algorithm, minimum deviation method, order allocation, supplier selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Alvin Saputra, Felix Wijovi

Abstract:

Background: Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) often experience emotional dysregulation and heightened suicidality. Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT) and Radically Open DBT (RO-DBT) have shown promise in addressing these challenges, though research on their effectiveness in ASD populations remains limited. This systematic review aims to evaluate the impact of DBT and RO-DBT on emotional regulation, depression, and suicidality in adults with ASD. Methods: A systematic review was conducted by searching databases such as PubMed, PsycINFO, and Scopus for studies published on DBT and RO-DBT interventions in adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Inclusion criteria were peer-reviewed studies that reported on emotional regulation, suicidality, or depression outcomes. Data extraction focused on sample characteristics, intervention details, and outcome measures. Quality assessment was performed using standard systematic review criteria to ensure reliability and relevance of findings. Results: 4 studies comprising a total of 343 participants were included in this study. DBT and RO-DBT interventions demonstrated a medium effect size (Cohen's d = 0.53) in improving emotional regulation for adults with ASD, with ASD participants achieving significantly better outcomes than non-ASD individuals. RO-DBT was particularly effective in reducing maladaptive overcontrol, though high attrition and a predominantly White British sample limited generalizability. At end-of-treatment, DBT significantly reduced suicidal ideation (z = −2.24; p = 0.025) and suicide attempts (z = −3.15; p = 0.002) compared to treatment as usual (TAU), although this effect did not sustain at 12 months. Depression severity decreased with DBT (z = −1.99; p = 0.046), maintaining significance at follow-up (z = −2.46; p = 0.014). No significant effects were observed for social anxiety, and two suicides occurred in the TAU group. Conclusions: DBT and RO-DBT show potential efficacy in reducing emotional dysregulation, suicidality, and depression in adults with ASD, though the effects on suicidality may diminish over time. High dropout rates and limited sample diversity suggest further research is needed to confirm long-term benefits and improve applicability across broader populations.

Keywords: dialectical behaviour therapy, emotional dysregulation, autism spectrum disorder, suicidality

Procedia PDF Downloads 15

Authors: Julien Deborde, Thomas Milcent, Stéphane Glockner, Pierre Lubin

Abstract:

A fully Eulerian method is developed to solve the problem of fluid-elastic structure interactions based on a 1-fluid method. The interface between the fluid and the elastic structure is captured by a level set function, advected by the fluid velocity and solved with a WENO 5 scheme. The elastic deformations are computed in an Eulerian framework thanks to the backward characteristics. We use the Neo Hookean or Mooney Rivlin hyperelastic models and the elastic forces are incorporated as a source term in the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The velocity/pressure coupling is solved with a pressure-correction method and the equations are discretized by finite volume schemes on a Cartesian grid. The main difficulty resides in that large deformations in the fluid cause numerical instabilities. In order to avoid these problems, we use a re-initialization process for the level set and linear extrapolation of the backward characteristics. First, we verify and validate our approach on several test cases, including the benchmark of FSI proposed by Turek. Next, we apply this method to study the wave damping phenomenon which is a mean to reduce the waves impact on the coastline. So far, to our knowledge, only simulations with rigid or one dimensional elastic structure has been studied in the literature. We propose to place elastic structures on the seabed and we present results where 50 % of waves energy is absorbed.

Keywords: damping wave, Eulerian formulation, finite volume, fluid structure interaction, hyperelastic material

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: P. Novosad, L. Osuska, M. Tazky, T. Tazky

Abstract:

Current trends in the building industry are oriented towards the reduction of maintenance costs and the ecological benefits of buildings or building materials. Surface treatment of building materials with photocatalytic active titanium dioxide added into concrete can offer a good solution in this context. Architectural concrete has one disadvantage – dust and fouling keep settling on its surface, diminishing its aesthetic value and increasing maintenance e costs. Concrete surface – silicate material with open porosity – fulfils the conditions of effective photocatalysis, in particular, the self-cleaning properties of surfaces. This modern material is advantageous in particular for direct finishing and architectural concrete applications. If photoactive titanium dioxide is part of the top layers of road concrete on busy roads and the facades of the buildings surrounding these roads, exhaust fumes can be degraded with the aid of sunshine; hence, environmental load will decrease. It is clear that options for removing pollutants like nitrogen oxides (NOx) must be found. Not only do these gases present a health risk, they also cause the degradation of the surfaces of concrete structures. The photocatalytic properties of titanium dioxide can in the long term contribute to the enhanced appearance of surface layers and eliminate harmful pollutants dispersed in the air, and facilitate the conversion of pollutants into less toxic forms (e.g., NOx to HNO₃). This paper describes verification of the photocatalytic properties of titanium dioxide and presents the results of mechanical and physical tests on samples of architectural lightweight self-compacting concretes (LWSCC). The very essence of the use of LWSCC is their rheological ability to seep into otherwise extremely hard accessible or inaccessible construction areas, or sections thereof where concrete compacting will be a problem, or where vibration is completely excluded. They are also able to create a solid monolithic element with a large variety of shapes; the concrete will at the same meet the requirements of both chemical aggression and the influences of the surrounding environment. Due to their viscosity, LWSCCs are able to imprint the formwork elements into their structure and thus create high quality lightweight architectural concretes.

Keywords: photocatalytic concretes, titanium dioxide, architectural concretes, Lightweight Self-Compacting Concretes (LWSCC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Khandoker Akib Mohammad

Abstract:

While analyzing time-to-event data, it is possible that a certain fraction of subjects will never experience the event of interest, and they are said to be cured. When this feature of survival models is taken into account, the models are commonly referred to as cure models. In the presence of covariates, the conditional survival function of the population can be modelled by using the cure model, which depends on the probability of being uncured (incidence) and the conditional survival function of the uncured subjects (latency), and a combination of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression is used to model the incidence and latency respectively. In this paper, we have shown the asymptotic normality of the profile likelihood estimator via asymptotic expansion of the profile likelihood and obtain the explicit form of the variance estimator with an implicit function in the profile likelihood. We have also shown the efficient score function based on projection theory and the profile likelihood score function are equal. Our contribution in this paper is that we have expressed the efficient information matrix as the variance of the profile likelihood score function. A simulation study suggests that the estimated standard errors from bootstrap samples (SMCURE package) and the profile likelihood score function (our approach) are providing similar and comparable results. The numerical result of our proposed method is also shown by using the melanoma data from SMCURE R-package, and we compare the results with the output obtained from the SMCURE package.

Keywords: Cox PH model, cure model, efficient score function, EM algorithm, implicit function, profile likelihood

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Mohamed Ahmed Madkour, Haitham Magdy Hamad

Abstract:

This research aims to study of the surgery science and imaging in ancient Egypt, and how to diagnose the surgical cases, whether due to injuries or disease that requires surgical intervention, Medical diagnosis and how to treat it. The ancient Egyptian physician tried to change over from magic and theological thinking to become a stand-alone experimental science, they were able to distinguish between diseases and they divide them into internal and external diseases even this division exists to date in modern medicine. There is no evidence to recognize the amount of human knowledge in the prehistoric knowledge of medicine and surgery except skeleton. It is not far from the human being in those times familiar with some means of treatment, Surgery in the Stone age was rudimentary, Flint stone was used after trimming in a certain way as a lancet to slit and open the skin. Wooden tree branches were used to make splints to treat bone fractures. Surgery developed further when copper was discovered, it led to the advancement of Egyptian civilization, then modern and advanced tools appeared in the operating theater like a knife or a scalpel. The climate and environmental conditions have preserved medical papyri and human remains that have confirmed their knowledge of surgical methods including sedation. The ancient Egyptians reached a great importance in surgery, evidenced by the scenes that depict the pathological image and the surgical process, but the image alone is not sufficient to prove the pathology, its presence in ancient Egypt and its treatment method. As there are a number of medical papyri, especially Edwin Smith and Ebris, which prove the ancient Egyptian surgeon's knowledge of the pathological condition that It requires a surgical intervention, otherwise its diagnosis and the method of treatment will not be described with such accuracy through these texts. Some surgeries are described in the department of surgery at Ebris papyrus. The level of surgery in ancient Egypt was high, and they performed surgery such as hernias and Aneurysm, however we have not received a lengthy explanation of the various surgeries and the surgeon has usually only said “treated surgically”. It is evident in the Ebris papyrus that they used sharp surgical tools and cautery in operations where bleeding is expected, such as hernias, arterial sacs and tumors.

Keywords: ancient Egypt, archaeology, Egyptian history, ancient asurgical imaging, Egyptian civilization, civilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Alexander Rych

Abstract:

Piql Preservation Services (“Piql”) is a turnkey solution designed for secure, migration-free long- term preservation of digital data. Piql sets an open standard for long- term preservation for the future. It consists of equipment and processes needed for writing and retrieving digital data. Exponentially growing amounts of data demand for logistically effective and cost effective processes. Digital storage media (hard disks, magnetic tape) exhibit limited lifetime. Repetitive data migration to overcome rapid obsolescence of hardware and software bears accelerated risk of data loss, data corruption or even manipulation and adds significant repetitive costs for hardware and software investments. Piql stores any kind of data in its digital as well as analog form securely for 500 years. The medium that provides this is a film reel. Using photosensitive film polyester base, a very stable material that is known for its immutability over hundreds of years, secure and cost-effective long- term preservation can be provided. The film reel itself is stored in a packaging capable of protecting the optical storage medium. These components have undergone extensive testing to ensure longevity of up to 500 years. In addition to its durability, film is a true WORM (write once- read many) medium. It therefore is resistant to editing or manipulation. Being able to store any form of data onto the film makes Piql a superior solution for long-term preservation. Paper documents, images, video or audio sequences – all of those file formats and documents can be preserved in its native file structure. In order to restore the encoded digital data, only a film scanner, a digital camera or any appropriate optical reading device will be needed in the future. Every film reel includes an index section describing the data saved on the film. It also contains a content section carrying meta-data, enabling users in the future to rebuild software in order to read and decode the digital information.

Keywords: digital data, long-term preservation, migration-free, photosensitive film

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Messaoud Eljamai, Sami Hidouri

Abstract:

Massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) is an emerging technology for new cellular networks such as 5G systems. Its principle is to use many antennas per cell in order to maximize the network's spectral efficiency. Inter-cellular interference remains a fundamental problem. The use of massive MIMO will not derogate from the rule. It improves performances only when the number of antennas is significantly greater than the number of users. This, considerably, limits the networks spectral efficiency. In this paper, a coordinated detector for an uplink massive MIMO system is proposed in order to mitigate the inter-cellular interference. The proposed scheme combines the coordinated multipoint technique with an interference-cancelling algorithm. It requires the serving cell to send their received symbols, after processing, decision and error detection, to the interfered cells via a backhaul link. Each interfered cell is capable of eliminating intercellular interferences by generating and subtracting the user’s contribution from the received signal. The resulting signal is more reliable than the original received signal. This allows the uplink massive MIMO system to improve their performances dramatically. Simulation results show that the proposed detector improves system spectral efficiency compared to classical linear detectors.

Keywords: massive MIMO, COMP, interference canceling algorithm, spectral efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi, Yanxia Sun, Isaiah Gbadegesin Adebayo

Abstract:

Voltage stability analysis is crucial to the reliable and economic operation of power systems. The power system of developing nations is more susceptible to failures due to the continuously increasing load demand, which is not matched with generation increase and efficient transmission infrastructures. Thus, most power systems are heavily stressed, and the planning of extra generation from distributed generation sources needs to be efficiently done so as to ensure the security of the power system. Some voltage stability index-based approach for DG siting has been reported in the literature. However, most of the existing voltage stability indices, though sufficient, are found to be inaccurate, especially for overloaded power systems. In this paper, the performance of a relatively different approach using a line voltage stability margin indicator, which has proven to have better accuracy, has been presented and compared with a conventional line voltage stability index for DG siting using the Nigerian 28 bus system. Critical boundary index (CBI) for voltage stability margin estimation was deployed to identify suitable locations for DG placement, and the performance was compared with DG placement using the Novel Line Stability Index (NLSI) approach. From the simulation results, both CBI and NLSI agreed greatly on suitable locations for DG on the test system; while CBI identified bus 18 as the most suitable at system overload, NLSI identified bus 8 to be the most suitable. Considering the effect of the DG placement at the selected buses on the voltage magnitude profile, the result shows that the DG placed on bus 18 identified by CBI improved the performance of the power system better.

Keywords: voltage stability analysis, voltage collapse, voltage stability index, distributed generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Marcin Szlachetka, Konrad Pietrykowski

Abstract:

Modeling of a combustion process in a 9-cylinder aircraft engine is presented. The simulations of the combustion process in the IC engine have provided the information on the spatial and time distributions of selected quantities within the combustion chamber of the engine. The numerical analysis results have been compared with the results of indication process of the engine on the test stand. Modeling of combustion process an auto-ignited IC engine in the AVL Fire was carried out within the study. For the calculations, a ECFM-3Z model was used. Verification of simulation results was carried out by comparison of the pressure in the cylinder. The courses of indicated pressure, obtained from the simulations and during the engine tests mounted on a test stand were compared. The engine was braked by the propeller, which results in an adequate external power characteristics. The test object is a modified ASz-62IR engine with the injection system. The engine was running at take-off power. To check the optimum ignition timing regarding power, calculations, tests were performed for 7 different moments of ignition. The analyses of temperature distribution in the cylinder depending on the moments of ignition were carried out. Additional the course of pressure in the cylinder at different angles of ignition delays of the second spark plug were examined. The swirling of the mixture in the combustion chamber was also analysed. It has been shown that the largest vortexes occur in the middle of the chamber, and gets smaller, closer to the combustion chamber walls. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: CFD, combustion, internal combustion engine, aircraft engine

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Keping Zuo, Foad Kabinejadian, Gideon Praveen Kumar Vijayakumar, Fangsen Cui, Pei Ho, Hwa Liang Leo

Abstract:

Carotid artery stenting (CAS) is the standard procedure for patients with severe carotid stenosis at high risk for carotid endarterectomy (CAE). A major drawback of CAS is the higher incidence of procedure-related stroke compared with traditional open surgical treatment for carotid stenosis - CEA, even with the use of the embolic protection devices (EPD). As the currently available bare metal stents cannot address this problem, our research group developed a novel preferential covered-stent for carotid artery aims to prevent friable fragments of atherosclerotic plaques from flowing into the cerebral circulation, and yet maintaining the flow of the external carotid artery. The preliminary animal studies have demonstrated the potential of this novel covered-stent design for the treatment of carotid atherosclerotic stenosis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of membrane coating on the stent flexibility in order to improve the clinical performance of our novel covered stents. A total of 21 stents were evaluated in this study: 15 self expanding bare nitinol stents and 6 PTFE-covered stents. 10 of the bare stents were coated with 11%, 16% and 22% Polyurethane(PU), 4%, 6.25% and 11% EE, as well as 22% PU plus 5 μm Parylene. Different laser cutting designs were performed on 4 of the PTFE covert stents. All the stents, with or without the covered membrane, were subjected to a three-point flexural test. The stents were placed on two supports that are 30 mm apart, and the actuator is applying a force in the exact middle of the two supports with a loading pin with radius 2.5 mm. The loading pin displacement change, the force and the variation in stent shape were recorded for analysis. The flexibility of the stents was evaluated by the lumen area preservation at three displacement bending levels: 5mm, 7mm, and 10mm. All the lumen areas in all stents decreased with the increase of the displacement from 0 to 10 mm. The bare stents were able to maintain 0.864 ± 0.015, 0.740 ± 0.025 and 0.597 ± 0.031of original lumen area at 5 mm, 7 mm and 10mm displacement respectively. For covered stents, the stents with EE coating membrane showed the best lumen area preservation (0.839 ± 0.005, 0.7334 ± 0.043 and 0.559 ± 0.014), whereas, the stents with PU and Parylene coating were only 0.662, 0.439 and 0.305. Bending stiffness was also calculated and compared. These results provided optimal material information and it was crucial for enhancing clinical performance of our novel covered stents.

Keywords: carotid artery, covered stent, nonlinear, hyperelastic, stress, strain

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Wu Peiqin

Abstract:

Flexible thermoelectric devices are light and flexible, which can be in close contact with any shape of heat source surfaces to minimize heat loss and achieve efficient energy conversion. Among the wide application fields, energy harvesting via flexible thermoelectric generators can adapt to a variety of curved heat sources (such as human body, circular tubes, and surfaces of different shapes) and can drive low-power electronic devices, exhibiting one of the most promising technologies in self-powered systems. The heat flux along the cross-section of the flexible thin-film generator is limited by the thickness, so the temperature difference decreases during the generation process, and the output power is low. At present, most of the heat flow directions of the thin film thermoelectric generator are along the thin-film plane; however, this method is not suitable for attaching to the human body surface to generate electricity. In order to make the film generator more suitable for thermoelectric generation, it is necessary to apply a flexible heatsink on the air sides with the film to maintain the temperature difference. In this paper, Bismuth telluride thermoelectric paste was deposited on polyimide flexible substrate by a screen printing method, and the flexible thermoelectric film was formed after drying. There are ten pairs of thermoelectric legs. The size of the thermoelectric leg is 20 x 2 x 0.1 mm, and adjacent thermoelectric legs are spaced 2 mm apart. A phase change material-based flexible heatsink was designed and fabricated. The flexible heatsink consists of n-octadecane, polystyrene, and expanded graphite. N-octadecane was used as the thermal storage material, polystyrene as the supporting material, and expanded graphite as the thermally conductive additive. The thickness of the flexible phase change material-based heatsink is 2mm. A thermoelectric performance testing platform was built, and its output performance was tested. The results show that the system can generate an open-circuit output voltage of 3.89 mV at a temperature difference of 10K, which is higher than the generator without a heatsink. Therefore, the flexible heatsink can increase the temperature difference between the two ends of the film and improve the output performance of the flexible film generator. This result promotes the application of the film thermoelectric generator in collecting human heat for power generation.

Keywords: flexible thermoelectric generator, screen printing, PCM, flexible heatsink

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Malik Sajjad Mehmood, Aisha Ali, Hamna Khan, Tariq Yasin, Masroor Ikram

Abstract:

Ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) is one of the polymers belongs to polyethylene (PE) family having monomer –CH2– and average molecular weight is approximately 3-6 million g/mol. Due its chemical, mechanical, physical and biocompatible properties, it has been extensively used in the field of electrical insulation, medicine, orthopedic, microelectronics, engineering, chemistry and the food industry etc. In order to alter/modify the properties of UHMWPE for particular application of interest, certain various procedures are in practice e.g. treating the material with high energy irradiations like gamma ray, e-beam, and ion bombardment. Radiation treatment of UHMWPE induces free radicals within its matrix, and these free radicals are the precursors of chain scission, chain accumulation, formation of double bonds, molecular emission, crosslinking etc. All the aforementioned physical and chemical processes are mainly responsible for the modification of polymers properties to use them in any particular application of our interest e.g. to fabricate LEDs, optical sensors, antireflective coatings, polymeric optical fibers, and most importantly for radiation dosimetry applications. It is therefore, to check the feasibility of using UHMWPE for radiation dosimetery applications, the compressed sheets of UHMWPE were irradiated at room temperature (~25°C) for total dose values of 30 kGy and 100 kGy, respectively while one were kept un-irradiated as reference. Transmittance data (from 400 nm to 800 nm) of e-beam irradiated UHMWPE and its hybrids were measured by using Muller matrix spectro-polarimeter. As a result significant changes occur in the absorption behavior of irradiated samples. To analyze these (radiation induced) changes in polymer matrix Urbach edge method and modified Tauc’s equation has been used. The results reveal that optical activation energy decreases with irradiation. The values of activation energies are 2.85 meV, 2.48 meV, and 2.40 meV for control, 30 kGy, and 100 kGy samples, respectively. Direct and indirect energy band gaps were also found to decrease with irradiation due to variation of C=C unsaturation in clusters. We believe that the reported results would open new horizons for radiation dosimetery applications.

Keywords: electron beam, radiation dosimetry, Tauc’s equation, UHMWPE, Urbach method

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: Aliyu Maje Bello, Yaowaluck Maprang Roshorm

Abstract:

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious viral infection affecting mostly infants and children. Although the Enterovirus A71 (EV71) is usually the major causative agent of HFMD, other enteroviruses such as coxsackievirus A16, A10, and A6 are also found in some of the recent outbreaks. The commercially available vaccines have demonstrated their effectiveness against only EV71 infection but no protection against other enteroviruses. To address the limitation of the monovalent EV71 vaccine, the present study thus designed a tetravalent vaccine against the four major enteroviruses causing HFMD and primarily evaluated the designed vaccine using an immunoinformatics approach. The immunogen was designed to contain the EV71 VP1 protein and multiple reported epitopes from all four distinct enteroviruses and thus designated a tetravalent vaccine. The 3D structure of the designed tetravalent vaccine was modeled, refined, and validated. Epitope screening showed the presence of B-cell, CTL, CD4 T cell, and IFN epitopes with vast application among the Asian population. Docking analysis confirmed the stable and strong binding interactions between the immunogen and immune receptor B-cell receptor (BCR). In silico cloning and immune simulation analyses guaranteed high efficiency and sufficient expression of the vaccine candidate in humans. Overall, the promising results obtained from the in-silico studies of the proposed tetravalent vaccine make it a potential candidate worth further experimental validation.

Keywords: enteroviruses, coxsackieviruses, hand foot and mouth disease, immunoinformatics, tetravalent vaccine

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Tsung-yin Lin, Yi-yu Lee, Ching-hua Hung

Abstract:

Snoring, the lay term for obstructive breathing during sleep, is one of the most prevalent of obnoxious human habits. Loud snoring usually makes others feel noisy and uncomfortable. Snoring also influences the sleep quality of snorers’ bed partners, because of the noise they do not get to sleep easily. Snoring causes the reduce of sleep quality leading to several medical problems, such as excessive daytime sleepiness, high blood pressure, increased risk for cardiovascular disease and cerebral vascular accident, and etc. There are many non-prescription devices offered for sale on the market, but very limited data are available to support a beneficial effect of these devices on snoring and use in treating obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Mandibular advancement devices (MADs), also termed as the Mandibular reposition devices (MRDs) are removable devices which are worn at night during sleep. Most devices require dental impression, bite registration, and fabrication by a dental laboratory. Those devices are fixed to upper and lower teeth and are adjusted to advance the mandible. The amount of protrusion is adjusted to meet the therapeutic requirements, comfort, and tolerance. Many devices have a fixed degree of advancement. Some are adjustable in a limited degree. This study focuses on the stress analysis of Mandibular Advancement Devices (MADs), which are considered as a standard treatment of snoring that promoted by American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM). This paper proposes a new MAD design, and the finite element analysis (FEA) is introduced to precede the stress simulation for this MAD.

Keywords: finite element analysis, mandibular advancement devices, mechanical stress, snoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Thomas Abraham, Garcia de la Vega Felipe, Lubna Nishath, Nzekwe Nduka, Powell Anne-Marie

Abstract:

Introduction: The purpose of this paper is to discuss the effectiveness of a peer support network created to provide medical education, pastoral support, and reliable resources to registrars to help them pass the MRCGP exams. This paper will include a description of the network and its purpose, discuss how it has been used by trainees since its creation, and explain how this methodology can be applied to other areas of medical education and primary care. Background: The peer support network was created in February 2021, using Facebook, Telegram, and WhatsApp platforms to facilitate discussion of cases and answer queries about the exams, share resources, and offer peer support from qualified GPs and specialists. The network was created and is maintained by the authors of this paper and is open to anyone who is registered with the General Medical Council (GMC) and is studying for the MRCGP exams. Purpose: The purpose of the network is to provide medical education, pastoral support, and reliable resources to registrars to help them pass the exams. The network is free to use and is designed to take the onus away from a single medical educator and collate a vast amount of information from multiple medical educators/trainers; thereby creating a digital library of information for all trainees - exam related or otherwise. Methodology The network is managed by a team of moderators who respond to queries and facilitate discussion. Smaller study groups are created from the main group and provide a platform for trainees to work together, share resources, and provide peer support. The network has had thousands of trainees using it since February 2021, with positive feedback from all trainees. Results: The feedback from trainees has been overwhelmingly positive. Word of mouth has spread rapidly, growing the groups exponentially. Trainees add colleagues to the groups and often stay after they pass their exams to 'give back' to their fellow trainees. To date, thousands of trainees have passed the MRCGP exams using the resources and support provided by the network. Conclusion The success of this peer support network demonstrates the effectiveness of creating a network of thousands of doctors to provide medical education and support.

Keywords: peer support, medical education, pastoral support, MRCGP exams

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Y. J. Wang, C. Q. Ru

Abstract:

A key issue of cohesive zone models is how to determine the cohesive zone model (CZM) parameters based on real material test data. In this paper, uniaxial nominal stress-strain curve (SS curve) is used to determine two key parameters of a cohesive zone model: the maximum traction and the area under the curve of traction-separation law (TSL). To this end, the true SS curve is obtained based on the nominal SS curve, and the relationship between the nominal SS curve and TSL is derived based on an assumption that the stress for cracking should be the same in both CZM and the real material. In particular, the true SS curve after necking is derived from the nominal SS curve by taking the average of the power law extrapolation and the linear extrapolation, and a damage factor is introduced to offset the true stress reduction caused by the voids generated at the necking zone. The maximum traction of the TSL is equal to the maximum true stress calculated based on the damage factor at the end of hardening. In addition, a simple specimen is simulated by Abaqus/Standard to calculate the critical J-integral, and the fracture energy calculated by the critical J-integral represents the stored strain energy in the necking zone calculated by the true SS curve. Finally, the CZM parameters obtained by the present method are compared to those used in a previous related work for a simulation of the drop-weight tear test.

Keywords: dynamic fracture, cohesive zone model, traction-separation law, stress-strain curve, J-integral

Procedia PDF Downloads 516

Authors: Mohadeseh Shojaei Shahrokhabadi, Ding-Geng (Din) Chen

Abstract:

Positive continuous outcomes with a substantial number of zero values and incomplete longitudinal follow-up are quite common in medical cost data. To jointly model semi-continuous longitudinal cost data and survival data and to provide marginalized covariate effect estimates, a marginalized two-part joint model (MTJM) has been developed for outcome variables with lognormal distributions. In this paper, we propose MTJM models for outcome variables from a generalized gamma (GG) family of distributions. The GG distribution constitutes a general family that includes approximately all of the most frequently used distributions like the Gamma, Exponential, Weibull, and Log Normal. In the proposed MTJM-GG model, the conditional mean from a conventional two-part model with a three-parameter GG distribution is parameterized to provide the marginal interpretation for regression coefficients. In addition, MTJM-gamma and MTJM-Weibull are developed as special cases of MTJM-GG. To illustrate the applicability of the MTJM-GG, we applied the model to a set of real electronic health record data recently collected in Iran, and we provided SAS code for application. The simulation results showed that when the outcome distribution is unknown or misspecified, which is usually the case in real data sets, the MTJM-GG consistently outperforms other models. The GG family of distribution facilitates estimating a model with improved fit over the MTJM-gamma, standard Weibull, or Log-Normal distributions.

Keywords: marginalized two-part model, zero-inflated, right-skewed, semi-continuous, generalized gamma

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Miguel Angel Calvo Salve

Abstract:

Building enclosures and façades not only have an aesthetic component they must also ensure thermal comfort and improve the acoustics and air quality in buildings. The role of facades design, its assemblies, and construction are key in developing a greener future in architecture. This research and study focus on the design of a multi-leaves building envelope, with a self-supporting wall of granite slabs. The study will demonstrate the advantages of its use in compare with the hanging stone veneer in a vented cladding system. Using the Design of the School of Music and Theatre of the Atlantic Area in Spain as a case study where the multi-leaves enclosure system consists in a self-supported outer leaf of large granite slabs of 15cm. of thickness, a vent cavity with thermal isolation, a brick wall, and a series of internal layers. The methodology used were simulations and data collected in building. The advantages of the self-supporting wall of granite slabs in the outer leaf (15cm). compared with a hanging stone veneer in a vented cladding system can summarize the goals as follows: Using the stone in more natural way, by compression. The weight of the stone slabs goes directly to a strip-footing and don't overload the reinforced concrete structure of the building. The weight of the stone slabs provides an external aerial soundproofing, preventing the sound transmission to the structure. The thickness of the stone slabs is enough to provide the external waterproofing of the building envelope. The self-supporting system with minimum anchorages allows having a continuous and external thermal isolation without thermal bridges. The thickness of ashlars masonry provides a thermal inertia that balances the temperatures between day and night in the external thermal insulation layer. The absence of open joints gives the quality of a continuous envelope transmitting the sensations of the stone, the heaviness in the facade, the rhythm of the music and the sequence of the theatre. The main cost of stone due his bigger thickness is more than compensated with the reduction in assembly costs. Don´t need any substructure systems for hanging stone veneers.

Keywords: self-supporting wall, stone cladding systems, hanging veneer cladding systems, sustainability of facade systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Faruk Ozdemir, Roy Kalawsky, Peter Hubbard

Abstract:

Accurate estimation of RUL provides a basis for effective predictive maintenance, reducing unexpected downtime for industrial equipment. However, while models such as the Random Forest have effective predictive capabilities, they are the so-called ‘black box’ models, where interpretability is at a threshold to make critical diagnostic decisions involved in industries related to aviation. The purpose of this work is to present a prognostic framework that embeds Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques in order to provide essential transparency in Machine Learning methods' decision-making mechanisms based on sensor data, with the objective of procuring actionable insights for the aviation industry. Sensor readings have been gathered from critical equipment such as turbofan jet engine and landing gear, and the prediction of the RUL is done by a Random Forest model. It involves steps such as data gathering, feature engineering, model training, and evaluation. These critical components’ datasets are independently trained and evaluated by the models. While suitable predictions are served, their performance metrics are reasonably good; such complex models, however obscure reasoning for the predictions made by them and may even undermine the confidence of the decision-maker or the maintenance teams. This is followed by global explanations using SHAP and local explanations using LIME in the second phase to bridge the gap in reliability within industrial contexts. These tools analyze model decisions, highlighting feature importance and explaining how each input variable affects the output. This dual approach offers a general comprehension of the overall model behavior and detailed insight into specific predictions. The proposed framework, in its third component, incorporates the techniques of causal analysis in the form of Granger causality tests in order to move beyond correlation toward causation. This will not only allow the model to predict failures but also present reasons, from the key sensor features linked to possible failure mechanisms to relevant personnel. The causality between sensor behaviors and equipment failures creates much value for maintenance teams due to better root cause identification and effective preventive measures. This step contributes to the system being more explainable. Surrogate Several simple models, including Decision Trees and Linear Models, can be used in yet another stage to approximately represent the complex Random Forest model. These simpler models act as backups, replicating important jobs of the original model's behavior. If the feature explanations obtained from the surrogate model are cross-validated with the primary model, the insights derived would be more reliable and provide an intuitive sense of how the input variables affect the predictions. We then create an iterative explainable feedback loop, where the knowledge learned from the explainability methods feeds back into the training of the models. This feeds into a cycle of continuous improvement both in model accuracy and interpretability over time. By systematically integrating new findings, the model is expected to adapt to changed conditions and further develop its prognosis capability. These components are then presented to the decision-makers through the development of a fully transparent condition monitoring and alert system. The system provides a holistic tool for maintenance operations by leveraging RUL predictions, feature importance scores, persistent sensor threshold values, and autonomous alert mechanisms. Since the system will provide explanations for the predictions given, along with active alerts, the maintenance personnel can make informed decisions on their end regarding correct interventions to extend the life of the critical machinery.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, explainable artificial intelligence, prognostic, RUL, machine learning, turbofan engines, C-MAPSS dataset

Procedia PDF Downloads 12

Authors: Ayad A. Abdulkafi, Shahir F. Nawaf, Mohammed K. Hussein, Ibrahim K. Sileh, Fouad A. Abdulkafi

Abstract:

Visible light communication (VLC) is a new approach of optical wireless communication proposed to support the congested radio frequency (RF) spectrum. VLC systems are combined with orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) to achieve high rate transmission and high spectral efficiency. In this paper, we investigate the Pilot-Assisted Channel Estimation for DC biased Optical OFDM (PACE-DCO-OFDM) systems to reduce the effects of the distortion on the transmitted signal. Least-square (LS) and linear minimum mean-squared error (LMMSE) estimators are implemented in MATLAB/Simulink to enhance the bit-error-rate (BER) of PACE-DCO-OFDM. Results show that DCO-OFDM system based on PACE scheme has achieved better BER performance compared to conventional system without pilot assisted channel estimation. Simulation results show that the proposed PACE-DCO-OFDM based on LMMSE algorithm can more accurately estimate the channel and achieves better BER performance when compared to the LS based PACE-DCO-OFDM and the traditional system without PACE. For the same signal to noise ratio (SNR) of 25 dB, the achieved BER is about 5×10^-4 for LMMSE-PACE and 4.2×10^-3 with LS-PACE while it is about 2×10^-1 for system without PACE scheme.

Keywords: channel estimation, OFDM, pilot-assist, VLC

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Yousef Abdulaziz Almolhem

Abstract:

Geographically, the most Arabic countries locate in areas confined to arid or semiarid regions. For this reason, most of our countries have adopted the seawater desalination as a strategy to overcome this problem. For example, the water supply of AUE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia is almost 100% from the seawater desalination plants. Many areas in Saudia Arabia and other countries in the world suffer from lack of fresh water which hinders the development of these areas, despite the availability of saline water and high solar radiation intensity. Furthermore, most developing countries do not have sufficient meteorological data to evaluate if the solar radiation is enough to meet the solar desalination. A mathematical model was developed to simulate and predict the thermal behavior of the solar still which used direct solar energy for distillation of seawater. Measurement data were measured in the Environment and Natural Resources Department, Faculty of Agricultural and Food sciences, King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia, in order to evaluate the present model. The simulation results obtained from this model were compared with the measured data. The main results of this research showed that there are slight differences between the measured and predicted values of the elements studied, which is resultant from the change of some factors considered constants in the model such as the sky clearance, wind velocity and the salt concentration in the water in the basin of the solar still. It can be concluded that the present model can be used to estimate the average total solar radiation and the thermal behavior of the solar still in any area with consideration to the geographical location.

Keywords: mathematical model, sea water, distillation, solar radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Theresa Veach, Erin Crisp

Abstract:

It has been shown that traditional students flourish as a function of several factors including level of academic challenge, student/faculty interactions, active/collaborative learning, enriching educational experiences, and supportive campus environment. With the increase in demand for remote or online courses, factors that result in academic flourishing in the virtual classroom have become more crucial to understand than ever before. This study seeks to give insight into those factors that impact student learning, overall student wellbeing, and flourishing among college students enrolled in an online program. 4160 unique students participated in the completion of End of Course Survey (EOC) before final grades were released. Quantitative results from the survey are used by program directors as a measure of student satisfaction with both the curriculum and the faculty. In addition, students also submitted narrative comments in an open comment field. No prompts were given for the comment field on the survey. The purpose of this analysis was to report on the qualitative data available with the goal of gaining insight into what matters to students. Survey results from July 1st, 2016 to December 1st, 2016 were compiled into spreadsheet data sets. The analysis approach used involved both key word and phrase searches and reading results to identify patterns in responses and to tally the frequency of those patterns. In total, just over 25,000 comments were included in the analysis. Preliminary results indicate that it is the professor-student relationship, frequency of feedback and overall engagement of both instructors and students that are indicators of flourishing in college programs offered in an online format. This qualitative study supports the notion that college students flourish with regard to 1) education, 2) overall student well-being and 3) program satisfaction when overall engagement of both the instructor and the student is high. Ways to increase engagement in the online college environment were also explored. These include 1) increasing student participation by providing more project-based assignments, 2) interacting with students in meaningful ways that are both high in frequency and in personal content, and 3) allowing students to apply newly acquired knowledge in ways that are meaningful to current life circumstances and future goals.

Keywords: college, engagement, flourishing, online

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Eliott Guérin, Remi Daudin, Georges Kalepsi, Alexis Lenain, Sebastien Gravier, Benoit Ter-Ovanessian, Damien Fabregue, Jean-Jacques Blandin

Abstract:

Due to interesting compromise between mechanical and corrosion properties, Zr-based BMGs are attractive for biomedical applications. However, the enhancement of their glass forming ability (GFA) is often achieved by addition of toxic elements like Ni or Be, which is of course a problem for such applications. Consequently, the development of Ni-free Be-free Zr-based BMGs is of great interest. We have developed a Zr-based (Ni and Be-free) amorphous metallic alloy with an elastic limit twice the one of Ti-6Al-4V. The Zr56Co28Al16 composition exhibits a yield strength close to 2 GPa and low Young’s modulus (close to 90 GPa) [1-2]. In this work, we investigated Niobium (Nb) addition through substitution of Zr up to 8 at%. Cobalt substitution has already been reported [3], but we chose Zr substitution to preserve the glass forming ability. In this case, we show that the glass forming ability for 5 mm diameters rods is maintained up to 3 at% of Nb substitution using suction casting in cooper moulds. Concerning the thermal stability, we measure a strong compositional dependence on the glass transition (Tg). Using DSC analysis (heating rate 20 K/min), we show that the Tg rises from 752 K for 0 at% of Nb to 759 K for 3 at% of Nb. Yet, the thermal range between Tg and the crystallisation temperature (Tx) remains almost unchanged from 33 K to 35 K. Uniaxial compression tests on 2 mm diameter pillars and 3 points bending (3PB) tests on 1 mm thick plates are performed to study the Nb addition on the mechanical properties and the plastic behaviour. With these tests, an optimal Nb concentration is found, improving both plasticity and fatigue resistance. Through interpretations of DSC measurements, an attempt is made to correlate the modifications of the mechanical properties with the structural changes. The optimized chemical, structural and mechanical properties through Nb addition are encouraging to develop the potential of this BMG alloy for biomedical applications. For this purpose, we performed polarisation, immersion and cytotoxicity tests. The figure illustrates the polarisation response of Zr56Co28Al16, Zr54Co28Al16Nb2 and TA6V as a reference after 2h of open circuit potential. The results show that the substitution of Zr by a small amount of Nb significantly improves the corrosion resistance of the alloy.

Keywords: metallic glasses, amorphous metal, medical, mechanical resistance, biocompatibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Young Yoon, Jinsoo Kim

Abstract:

The adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) in all industry is growing under industry 4.0. Many oil companies also are increasingly adopting ICT to improve the efficiency of existing operations, take more accurate and quicker decision making and reduce entire cost by optimization. It is true that ICT is playing an important role in the process of unconventional oil and gas development and companies must take advantage of ICT to gain competitive advantage. In this study, real option approach has been applied to Unconventional gas R&D project to evaluate ICT of them. Many unconventional gas reserves such as shale gas and coal-bed methane(CBM) has developed due to technological improvement and high energy price. There are many uncertainties in unconventional development on the three stage(Exploration, Development, Production). The traditional quantitative benefits-cost method, such as net present value(NPV) is not sufficient for capturing ICT value. We attempted to evaluate the ICT valuation by applying the compound option model; the model is applied to real CBM project case, showing how it consider uncertainties. Variables are treated as uncertain and a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to consider variables effect. Acknowledgement—This work was supported by the Energy Efficiency & Resources Core Technology Program of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) granted financial resource from the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy, Republic of Korea (No. 20152510101880) and by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-205S1A3A2046684).

Keywords: information and communication technologies, R&D, real option, unconventional gas

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Johanida L. Etado

Abstract:

The study determined the Administrative traits and capabilities of Mindanao State University Heads of office as perceived by their respondents. Specifically, this study attempted to find out: To get the primary data, a self- constructed survey questionnaire which was validated by a panel of experts, including the adviser. Most of the MSU head of office were aware of their duties and responsibilities as a manager. Considering their vast knowledge and expertise on the technical or task aspects of the job, it is not surprising that respondents perceived them to a high degree as work or task oriented. MSU head of office were knowledgeable and capable in performing field-specific, specialized tasks and enabling them to coordinate work, solve problems, communicate effectively, and also understand the big picture in light of the front-line work that must be performed. The significance of coaching or mentoring in this instance may be explained by the less number of Master’s or Doctorate degree holder among employees resulting to close supervision and mentorship of head of office towards the latter; Without comparison, interpersonal or human relation capabilities is a very effective way in dealing with people as it gives them the opportunity to influence their employees. In the case of MSU head of office, the best way of dealing with problematic employees is by establishing trust and allowing them to partake in the decision making even on setting organizational goals as it would make them feel part of the organization; Thus, it is recommended that the success of an organization depends largely with the effectiveness of the head of unit. In this case, being development oriented would mean encouraging both head officers & employees to know not only the technical know hoe of the organisation but also the visions, missions, goals & the latter’s aspirations to establish cooperation & harmonious working environment; hence, orientation & reorientation time to time would enable them to be more development oriented; With respect to human relations, effective interpersonal relationship between head of unit & employee is of paramount importance. In order to strengthen the relationship between the two, the management should establish an upward & downward communication where two parties will have to establish an open & transparent communication, either through verbal & non-verbal one.

Keywords: administrator, administrative traits, leadership traits, work orientation

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Gourg Ebrahim Shafik Eskandar

Abstract:

This research aims to study of the surgery science and imaging in ancient Egypt, and how to diagnose the surgical cases, whether due to injuries or disease that requires surgical intervention, Medical diagnosis and how to treat it. The ancient Egyptian physician tried to change over from magic and theological thinking to become a stand-alone experimental science, they were able to distinguish between diseases and they divide them into internal and external diseases even this division exists to date in modern medicine. There is no evidence to recognize the amount of human knowledge in the prehistoric knowledge of medicine and surgery except skeleton. It is not far from the human being in those times familiar with some means of treatment, Surgery in the Stone age was rudimentary, Flint stone was used after trimming in a certain way as a lancet to slit and open the skin. Wooden tree branches were used to make splints to treat bone fractures. Surgery developed further when copper was discovered, it led to the advancement of Egyptian civilization, then modern and advanced tools appeared in the operating theater like a knife or a scalpel, there is evidence of surgery performed in ancient Egypt during the dynastic period (323 – 3200 BC). The climate and environmental conditions have preserved medical papyri and human remains that have confirmed their knowledge of surgical methods including sedation. The ancient Egyptians reached a great importance in surgery, evidenced by the scenes that depict the pathological image and the surgical process, but the image alone is not sufficient to prove the pathology, its presence in ancient Egypt and its treatment method. As there are a number of medical papyri, especially Edwin Smith and Ebris, which prove the ancient Egyptian surgeon's knowledge of the pathological condition that It requires a surgical intervention, otherwise its diagnosis and the method of treatment will not be described with such accuracy through these texts. Some surgeries are described in the department of surgery at Ebris papyrus (recipes from 863 to 877). The level of surgery in ancient Egypt was high, and they performed surgery such as hernias and Aneurysm, however we have not received a lengthy explanation of the various surgeries and the surgeon has usually only said “treated surgically”. It is evident in the Ebris papyrus that they used sharp surgical tools and cautery in operations where bleeding is expected, such as hernias, arterial sacs and tumors.

Keywords: ancient egypt, egypt, surgical imaging, surgery in the stone age

Procedia PDF Downloads 26

Authors: Huang Hao, Li Weiwen

Abstract:

Global biodiversity continues to decline as a result of global climate change and various human activities, such as habitat destruction, pollution, introduction of alien species and overfishing. Although there are connections between global marine organisms more or less, it is better to have clear geographical boundaries in order to facilitate the assessment and management of different biogeographical zones. And so area based management tools (ABMT) are considered as the most effective means for the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity. On a large scale, the geographical gap (or barrier) is the main factor to influence the connectivity, diffusion, ecological and evolutionary process of marine organisms, which results in different distribution patterns. On a small scale, these factors include geographical location, geology, and geomorphology, water depth, current, temperature, salinity, etc. Therefore, the analysis on geographic and environmental factors is of great significance in the study of biodiversity characteristics. This paper summarizes the marine spatial classification and ABMTs used in coastal area, open oceans and deep sea. And analysis principles and methods of marine spatial classification based on biogeographic related factors, and take China Near Sea (CNS) area as case study, and select key biogeographic related factors, carry out marine spatial classification at biological region scale, ecological regionals scale and biogeographical scale. The research shows that CNS is divided into 5 biological regions by climate and geographical differences, the Yellow Sea, the Bohai Sea, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Straits, and the South China Sea. And the bioregions are then divided into 12 ecological regions according to the typical ecological and administrative factors, and finally the eco-regions are divided into 98 biogeographical units according to the benthic substrate types, depth, coastal types, water temperature, and salinity, given the integrity of biological and ecological process, the area of the biogeographical units is not less than 1,000 km². This research is of great use to the coastal management and biodiversity conservation for local and central government, and provide important scientific support for future spatial planning and management of coastal waters and sustainable use of marine biodiversity.

Keywords: spatial classification, marine biodiversity, bio-geographical, conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 292