Search results for: time delayed SVIRS epidemic model

Authors: Qing Dai, Zhengkui Lin, Jiajia Zhang, Yi Qu

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Based on activity method, this paper focuses on morning commuting behavior when commuters travel with autonomous vehicles (AVs). Firstly, a net utility function of commuters is constructed by the activity utility of commuters at home, in car and at workplace, and the disutility of travel time cost and that of schedule delay cost. Then, this net utility function is applied to build an equilibrium model. Finally, under the assumption of constant marginal activity utility, the properties of equilibrium are analyzed. The results show that, in autonomous driving, the starting and ending time of morning peak and the number of commuters who arrive early and late at workplace are the same as those in manual driving. In automatic driving, however, the departure rate of arriving early at workplace is higher than that of manual driving, while the departure rate of arriving late is just the opposite. In addition, compared with manual driving, the departure time of arriving at workplace on time is earlier and the number of people queuing at the bottleneck is larger in automatic driving. However, the net utility of commuters and the total net utility of system in automatic driving are greater than those in manual driving.

Keywords: autonomous cars, bottleneck model, activity utility, user equilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: B. B. Rana, M. Yokota, Y. Shimizu, Y. Koide, I. Takamure, T. Kawano, M. Murai

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Various genes which control or affect heading time have been found in rice. Out of them, Se1 and E1 loci play important roles in determining heading time by controlling photosensitivity. An isogenic-line pair of late and early lines were developed from progenies of the F₁ from Suweon 258 × 36U. A lateness gene tentatively designated as “Ex” was found to control the difference in heading time between the early and late lines mentioned above. The present study was conducted to examine the effect of Ex on yield and related traits. Indica-type variety Suweon 258 was crossed with 36U, which is an Ur1 (Undulate rachis-1) isogenic line of IR36. In the F₂ population, comparatively early-heading, late-heading and intermediate-heading plants were segregated. Segregation similar to that by the three types of heading was observed in the F₃ and later generations. A late-heading plant and an early-heading plant were selected in the F₈ population from an intermediate-heading F₇ plant, for developing L and E of the isogenic-line pair, respectively. Experiments for L and E were conducted by randomized block design with three replications. Transplanting was conducted on May 3 at a planting distance of 30 cm × 15 cm with two seedlings per hill to an experimental field of the Faculty of Agriculture, Kochi University. Chemical fertilizers containing N, P₂O₅ and K₂O were applied at the nitrogen levels of 4 g/m², 9 g/m² and 18 g/m² in total being denoted by "N4", "N9" and "N18", respectively. Yield, yield components and other traits were measured. Ex delayed 80%-heading by 17 or 18 days in L as compared with E. In total brown rice yield (g/m²), L was 635, 606 and 590, and E was 577, 548 and 501, respectively, at N18, N9 and N4, indicating that Ex increased this trait by 10% to 18%. Ex increased yield-1.5 mm sieve (g/m²) b 9% to 15% at the three fertilizer levels. Ex increased the spikelet number per panicle by 16% to 22%. As a result, the spikelet number per m² was increased by 11% to 18% at the three fertilizer levels. Ex decreased 1000-grain weight (g) by 2 to 4%. L was not significantly different from E in ripened-grain percentage, fertilized-spikelet percentage and percentage of ripened grains to fertilized spikelets. Hence, it is inferred that Ex increased yield by increasing spikelet number per panicle. Hence, Ex could be utilized to develop high yielding varieties for warmer districts.

Keywords: heading time, lateness gene, photosensitivity, yield, yield components

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Adisorn Bansong, Walai Isarankura Na Ayudhaya, Aumporn Makanong

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A Development of an Instructional Model for Health Education was the aim to develop and study the effectiveness of an instructional model for health education to enhance self-regulation and learning achievement of lower secondary school students. It was the Quasi-Experimental Designs, used a Single-group Interrupted Time-series Designs, conducted by 2 phases: 1. To develop an instructional model based on Social Cognitive Theory and Strategic Life Planning. 2. To trial and evaluate effectiveness of an instructional model. The results as the following: i. An Instructional Model for Health Education consists of five main components: a) Attention b) Forethought c) Tactic Planning d) Execution and e) Reflection. ii. After an Instructional Model for Health Education has used for a semester trial, found the 4.07 percent of sample’s Self-Regulation higher and learning achievement on post-test were significantly higher than pre-test at .05 levels (p = .033, .000).

Keywords: social cognitive theory, strategic life planning, self-regulation, learning achievement

Procedia PDF Downloads 455

Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

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Authors: Yamileth P. Herrera, Ronald R. Gutierrez, Carlos, Pacheco-Bustos

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This research aims at the numerical modeling of a rectangular contact tank in order to improve the hydrodynamic behavior and the retention time of the water to be treated with the disinfecting agent. The methodology to be followed includes a hydraulic analysis of the tank to observe the fluid velocities, which will allow evidence of low-speed areas that may generate pathogenic agent incubation or high-velocity areas, which may decrease the optimal contact time between the disinfecting agent and the microorganisms to be eliminated. Based on the results of the numerical model, the efficiency of the tank under the geometric and hydraulic conditions considered will be analyzed. This would allow the performance of the tank to be improved before starting a construction process, thus avoiding unnecessary costs.

Keywords: contact tank, numerical models, hydrodynamic modeling, residence time

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi

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Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km², and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Adam Beaunoyer, Cory Beaunoyer, Mohammed Elmorsy, Hanan Saleh

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This research aims to create a reinforcement learning agent capable of racing in challenging simulated environments with a low collision count. We present a reinforcement learning agent that can navigate challenging tracks using both a Deep Q-Network (DQN) and a Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) method. A challenging track includes curves, jumps, and varying road widths throughout. Using open-source code on Github, the environment used in this research is based on the 1995 racing game WipeOut. The proposed reinforcement learning agent can navigate challenging tracks rapidly while maintaining low racing completion time and collision count. The results show that the SAC model outperforms the DQN model by a large margin. We also propose an alternative multiple-car model that can navigate the track without colliding with other vehicles on the track. The SAC model is the basis for the multiple-car model, where it can complete the laps quicker than the single-car model but has a higher collision rate with the track wall.

Keywords: reinforcement learning, soft actor-critic, deep q-network, self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, gaming

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Frederic Schenker, Jonathan J. Hendriks, Gianluca Nicchiotti

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In a product industrialization perspective, the end-product shall always be at the peak of technological advancement and developed in the shortest time possible. Thus, the constant growth of complexity and a shorter time-to-market calls for important changes on both the technical and business level. Undeniably, the common understanding of the system is beclouded by its complexity which leads to the communication gap between the engineers and the sale department. This communication link is therefore important to maintain and increase the information exchange between departments to ensure a punctual and flawless delivery to the end customer. This evolution brings engineers to reason with more hindsight and plan ahead. In this sense, they use new viewpoints to represent the data and to express the model deliverables in an understandable way that the different stakeholder may identify their needs and ideas. This article focuses on the usage of Model-Based System Engineering (MBSE) in a perspective of system industrialization and reconnect the engineering with the sales team. The modeling method used and presented in this paper concentrates on displaying as closely as possible the needs of the customer. Firstly, by providing a technical solution to the sales team to help them elaborate commercial offers without omitting technicalities. Secondly, the model simulates between a vast number of possibilities across a wide range of components. It becomes a dynamic tool for powerful analysis and optimizations. Thus, the model is no longer a technical tool for the engineers, but a way to maintain and solidify the communication between departments using different views of the model. The MBSE contribution to cost optimization during New Product Introduction (NPI) activities is made explicit through the illustration of a case study describing the support provided by system models to architectural choices during the industrialization of a novel optical sensor.

Keywords: analytical model, architecture comparison, MBSE, product industrialization, SysML, system thinking

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Authors: Danylo Brindak, Viktor Liashko, Olexander Chepurniy

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Despite considerable experience in implementation of the best international approaches and services within response to epidemy of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis, the results of situation analysis indicate the presence of faults in this area. In 2014, Ukraine (for the first time) was included in the world’s five countries with the highest level of drug-resistant tuberculosis. The effectiveness of its treatment constitutes only 35% in the country. In this context, the increase in allocation of funds to control the epidemic of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis does not produce perceptible positive results. During 2001-2016, only the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria allocated to Ukraine more than USD 521,3 million for programs of tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS control. However, current conditions in post-Semashko system create little motivation for rational use of resources or cost control at inpatient TB facilities. There is no motivation to reduce overdue hospitalization and to target resources to priority sectors of modern tuberculosis control, including a model of care focused on the patient. In the presence of a line-item budget at medical institutions, based on the input factors as the ratios of beds and staff, there is a passive disposal of budgetary funds by health care institutions and their employees who have no motivation to improve quality and efficiency of service provision. Outpatient treatment of tuberculosis is being implemented in Ukraine since 2011 and has many risks, namely creation of parallel systems, low consistency through dependence on funding for the project, reduced the role of the family doctor, the fragmentation of financing, etc. In terms of reforming approaches to health system financing, which began in Ukraine in late 2016, NGO Infection Control in Ukraine conducted piloting of a new, motivating method of remuneration of employees in primary health care. The innovative aspect of this funding mechanism is cost according to results of treatment. The existing method of payment on the basis of the standard per inhabitant (per capita ratio) was added with motivating costs according to results of work. The effectiveness of such treatment of TB patients at the outpatient stage is 90%, while in whole on the basis of a current system the effectiveness of treatment of newly diagnosed pulmonary TB with positive swab is around 60% in the country. Even though Ukraine has 5.24 TB beds per 10 000 citizens. Implemented pilot model of ambulatory treatment will be used for the creation of costs system according to results of activities, the integration of TB and primary health and social services and their focus on achieving results, the reduction of inpatient treatment of tuberculosis.

Keywords: health care reform, multi-drug resistant tuberculosis, outpatient treatment efficiency, tuberculosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: D. Prangchumpol

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This research presents a forecasting method of requisition document demands for Military units by using Exponential Smoothing methods to analyze data. The data used in the forecast is an actual data requisition document of The Adjutant General Department. The results of the forecasting model to forecast the requisition of the document found that Holt–Winters’ trend and seasonality method of α=0.1, β=0, γ=0 is appropriate and matches for requisition of documents. In addition, the researcher has developed a requisition online system to improve the performance of requisition documents of The Adjutant General Department, and also ensuring that the operation can be checked.

Keywords: requisition, holt–winters, time series, royal thai army

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Maria Ines Azambuja

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Graphic displays of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) mortality trends generally uses data aggregated within 5 or 10-year intervals. Technology allows one to increase the amount of processed data. Displaying occurrences by 1-year intervals is a logic first step in the direction of attaining higher quality landscapes of variations in temporal occurrences. Method: 1) Comparison of UK mortality trends plotted by 10-, 5- and 1-year intervals; 2) Comparison of UK and US mortality trends (period X age and cohort X age) displayed by 1-year intervals. Source: Mortality data (period, 1x1, males, 1933-1912) uploaded from the Human Mortality Database to Excel files, where Period X Age and Cohort X Age graphics were produced. The choice of transforming age-specific trends from calendar to birth-cohort years (cohort = period – age) (instead of using cohort 1x1 data available at the HMD resource) was taken to facilitate the comparison of age-specific trends when looking across calendar-years and birth-cohorts. Yearly live births, males, 1933 to 1912 (UK) were uploaded from the HFD. Influenza references are from the literature. Results: 1) The use of 1-year intervals unveiled previously unsuspected period, cohort and interacting period x cohort effects upon all-causes mortality. 2) The UK and US figures showed variations associated with particular calendar years (1936, 1940, 1951, 1957-68, 72) and, most surprisingly, with particular birth-cohorts (1889-90 in the US, and 1900, 1918-19, 1940-41 and 1946-47, in both countries. Also, the figures showed ups and downs in age-specific trends initiated at particular birth-cohorts (1900, 1918-19 and 1947-48) or a particular calendar-year (1968, 1972, 1977-78 in the US), variations at times restricted to just a range of ages (cohort x period interacting effects). Importantly, most of the identified “scars” (period and cohort) correlates with the record of occurrences of Influenza A epidemics since the late 19th Century. Conclusions: The use of 1-year intervals to describe APC mortality trends both increases the amount of information available, thus enhancing the opportunities for patterns’ recognition, and increases our capability of interpreting those patterns by describing trends across smaller intervals of time (period or birth-cohort). The US and the UK mortality landscapes share many but not all 'scars' and distortions suggested here to be associated with influenza epidemics. Different size-effects of wars are evident, both in mortality and in fertility. But it would also be realistic to suppose that the preponderant influenza A viruses circulating in UK and US at the beginning of the 20th Century might be different and the difference to have intergenerational long-term consequences. Compared with the live births trend (UK data), birth-cohort scars clearly depend on birth-cohort sizes relatives to neighbor ones, which, if causally associated with influenza, would result from influenza-related fetal outcomes/selection. Fetal selection could introduce continuing modifications on population patterns of immune-inflammatory phenotypes that might give rise to 'epidemic constitutions' favoring the occurrence of particular diseases. Comparative analysis of mortality landscapes may help us to straight our record of past circulation of Influenza viruses and document associations between influenza recycling and fertility changes.

Keywords: age-period-cohort trends, epidemic constitution, fertility, influenza, mortality

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Tamrat Tesfaye, Tilahun Seyoum, K. Shabaridharan

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The objective of this paper was to determine the effect of NaOH concentration, soaking time, soaking temperature and their interaction on percentage yield of fibre extract using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). A Box-Behnken design was employed to optimize the extraction process of cellulosic fibre from sugar cane by-product bagasse using low alkaline extraction technique. The quadratic model with the optimal technological conditions resulted in a maximum fibre yield of 56.80% at 0.55N NaOH concentration, 4 h steeping time and 60ᵒC soaking temperature. Among the independent variables concentration was found to be the most significant (P < 0.005) variable and the interaction effect of concentration and soaking time leads to securing the optimized processes.

Keywords: sugarcane bagasse, low alkaline, Box-Behnken, fibre

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Jia-Chao Wang

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The cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB) freed during the recombination era can be considered as a photon source of small duration; a one-time event happened everywhere in the universe simultaneously. If space is divided into concentric shells centered at an observer’s location, one can imagine that the CMB photons originated from the nearby shells would reach and pass the observer first, and those in shells farther away would follow as time goes forward. In the Big Bang model, space expands rapidly in a time-dependent manner as described by the scale factor. This expansion results in an event horizon coincident with one of the shells, and its radius can be calculated using cosmological calculators available online. Using Planck 2015 results, its value during the recombination era at cosmological time t = 0.379 million years (My) is calculated to be Revent = 56.95 million light-years (Mly). The event horizon sets a boundary beyond which the freed CMB photons will never reach the observer. The photons within the event horizon also exhibit a peculiar behavior. Calculated results show that the CMB observed today was freed in a shell located at 41.8 Mly away (inside the boundary set by Revent) at t = 0.379 My. These photons traveled 13.8 billion years (Gy) to reach here. Similarly, the CMB reaching the observer at t = 1, 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100 and 120 Gy are calculated to be originated at shells of R = 16.98, 29.96, 37.79, 46.47, 53.66, 55.91, 56.62, 56.85 and 56.92 Mly, respectively. The results show that as time goes by, the R value approaches Revent = 56.95 Mly but never exceeds it, consistent with the earlier statement that beyond Revent the freed CMB photons will never reach the observer. The difference Revert - R can be used as a measure of the remaining observable CMB photons. Its value becomes smaller and smaller as R approaching Revent, indicating a dwindling supply of the observable CMB radiation. In this paper, detailed dwindling effects near the event horizon are analyzed with the help of online cosmological calculators based on the lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model. It is demonstrated in the literature that assuming the CMB to be a blackbody at recombination (about 3000 K), then it will remain so over time under cosmological redshift and homogeneous expansion of space, but with the temperature lowered (2.725 K now). The present result suggests that the observable CMB photon density, besides changing with space expansion, can also be affected by the dwindling supply associated with the event horizon. This raises the question of whether the blackbody of CMB at recombination can remain so over time. Being able to explain the blackbody nature of the observed CMB is an import part of the success of the Big Bang model. The present results cast some doubts on that and suggest that the model may have an additional challenge to deal with.

Keywords: blackbody of CMB, CMB radiation, dwindling supply of CMB, event horizon

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Authors: Khashayar Kazemzadeh, Mohammad Hanif Dasoomi

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According to the increasing travel demand in cities, bridges and tunnels are viewed as one of the fundamental components of cities transportation systems. Normally, due to geometric constraints forms in the tunnels, the considered speed in the tunnels is lower than the speed in connected highways. Therefore, drivers tend to reduce the speed near the entrance of the tunnels. In this paper, the effect of speed reduction on accident happened in the entrance of the tunnels has been discussed. The relation between accidents frequency and the parameters of speed, traffic volume and time of the accident in the mentioned tunnel has been analyzed and the mathematical model has been proposed.

Keywords: urban highway, accident, tunnel, mathematical model

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Authors: M. S. Maglasang, S. O. Palacio, L. P. Ogdoc

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Business Process Outsourcing has been one of the fastest growing and emerging industry in the Philippines today. Unlike most of the contact service centers, more popularly known as "call centers", The BPO Industry’s primary outsourced service is performing audits of the global clients' logistics. As a service industry, manpower is considered as the most important yet the most expensive resource in the company. Because of this, there is a need to maximize the human resources so people are effectively and efficiently utilized. The main purpose of the study is to optimize the current manpower resources through effective distribution and assignment of different types of bills to the different skill-level of data entry operators. The assignment model parameters include the average observed time matrix gathered from through time study, which incorporates the learning curve concept. Subsequently, a simulation model was made to duplicate the arrival rate of demand which includes the different batches and types of bill per day. Next, a mathematical linear programming model was formulated. Its objective is to minimize direct labor cost per bill by allocating the different types of bills to the different skill-levels of operators. Finally, a hypothesis test was done to validate the model, comparing the actual and simulated results. The analysis of results revealed that the there’s low utilization of effective capacity because of its failure to determine the product-mix, skill-mix, and simulated demand as model parameters. Moreover, failure to consider the effects of learning curve leads to overestimation of labor needs. From 107 current number of operators, the proposed model gives a result of 79 operators. This results to an increase of utilization of effective capacity to 14.94%. It is recommended that the excess 28 operators would be reallocated to the other areas of the department. Finally, a manpower capacity planning model is also recommended in support to management’s decisions on what to do when the current capacity would reach its limit with the expected increasing demand.

Keywords: optimization modelling, linear programming, simulation, time and motion study, capacity planning

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Authors: Abdelaziz Beddiaf

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In this work, we present an analysis based on the study of mobility which is a very important electrical parameter of a piezoresistor and which is directly bound to the piezoresistivity effect in piezoresistive pressure sensors. We determine how the temperature affects mobility when the electric potential is applied. For this, a theoretical approach based on mobility in a p-type Silicon piezoresistor with that of a finite difference model for self-heating is developed. So, the evolution of mobility has been established versus time for different doping levels and with temperature rise provoked by self-heating using a numerical model combined with that of mobility. Furthermore, it has been calculated for some geometrical parameters of the sensor, such as membrane side length and thickness. Also, it is computed as a function of bias voltage. It was observed that mobility is strongly affected by the temperature rise induced by the applied potential when the sensor is actuated for a prolonged time as a consequence of drifting in the output response of the sensor. Finally, this work makes it possible to predict their temperature behavior due to self-heating and to improve this effect by optimizing the geometric properties of the device and by reducing the voltage source applied to the bridge.

Keywords: Sensors, Piezoresistivity, Mobility, Bias voltage

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Authors: Quy Dang Nguyen, Reza Nakhaie Jazar

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The paper investigates vibration dynamics of tire-road separation for a quarter-car model; this separation model is developed to be close to the real situation considering the tire is able to separate from the ground plane. A set of piecewise linear mathematical models is developed and matches the in-contact and no-contact states to be considered as mother models for further investigations. The bound dynamics are numerically simulated in the time response and phase portraits. The separation analysis may determine which values of suspension parameters can delay and avoid the no-contact phenomenon, which results in improving ride comfort and eliminating the potentially dangerous oscillation. Finally, model verification is carried out in the MSC-ADAMS environment.

Keywords: quarter-car vibrations, tire-road separation, separation analysis, separation dynamics, ride comfort, ADAMS validation

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Authors: Pantana Tor-Ngern

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In the global water cycle, tree water use (Tr) largely contributes to evapotranspiration which is the total amount of water evaporated from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, regulating climates. Tree water use responds to environmental factors, including atmospheric humidity and sunlight (represented by vapor pressure deficit or VPD and photosynthetically active radiation or PAR, respectively) and soil moisture. In forests, Tr responses to such factors depend on species and their spatial and temporal variations. Tropical forests in Southeast Asia (SEA) have experienced land-use conversion from abandoned agricultural practices, resulting in patches of forests at different stages including old-growth and secondary forests. Because the inherent structures, such as canopy height and tree density, significantly vary among forests at different stages and can strongly affect their respective microclimate, Tr and its responses to changing environmental conditions in successional forests may differ. Daily and seasonal variations in the environmental factors may exert significant impacts on the respective Tr patterns. Extrapolating Tr data from short periods of days to longer periods of seasons or years can be complex and is important for estimating long-term ecosystem water use which often includes normal and abnormal climatic conditions. Thus, this study aims to investigate the diurnal variation of Tr, using measured sap flux density (JS) data, with changes in VPD in eight evergreen tree species in an old-growth forest (hereafter OF; >200 years old) and a young forest (hereafter YF, <10 years old) in Khao Yai National Park, Thailand. The studied species included Sysygium syzygoides, Aquilaria crassna, Cinnamomum subavenium, Nephelium melliferum, Altingia excelsa in OF, and Syzygium nervosum and Adinandra integerrima in YF. Only Sysygium antisepticum was found in both forest stages. Specifically, hysteresis, which indicates the asymmetrical changes of JS in response to changing VPD across daily timescale, was examined in these species. Results showed no hysteresis in all species in OF, except Altingia excelsa which exhibited a 3-hour delayed JS response to VPD. In contrast, JS of all species in YF displayed one-hour delayed responses to VPD. The OF species that showed no hysteresis indicated their well-coupling of their canopies with the atmosphere, facilitating the gas exchange which is essential for tree growth. The delayed responses in Altingia excelsa in OF and all species in YF were associated with higher JS in the morning than that in the afternoon. This implies that these species were sensitive to drying air, closing stomata relatively rapidly compared to the decreasing atmospheric humidity (VPD). Such behavior is often observed in trees growing in dry environments. This study suggests that detailed investigation of JS at sub-daily timescales is imperative for better understanding of mechanistic responses of trees to the changing climate, which will benefit the improvement of earth system models.

Keywords: sap flow, tropical forest, forest succession, thermal dissipcation probe

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Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

Abstract:

Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Jin A Ryu, Hee Sun Kim

Abstract:

As the number of fire accidents is gradually raising, many studies have been reported on evacuation. Previous studies have mostly focused on evaluating the safety of evacuation and the risk of fire in particular buildings. However, studies on effects of various parameters on evacuation have not been nearly done. Therefore, this paper aims at observing evacuation time under the effect of fire initiated location. In this study, evacuation simulations are performed on a 5-floor building located in Seoul, South Korea using the commercial program, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation (FDS+EVAC). Only the fourth and fifth floors are modeled with an assumption that fire starts in a room located on the fourth floor. The parameter for evacuation simulations is location of fire initiation to observe the evacuation time and safety. Results show that the location of fire initiation is closer to exit, the more time is taken to evacuate. The case having the nearest location of fire initiation to exit has the lowest ratio of successful occupants to the total occupants. In addition, for safety evaluation, the evacuation time calculated from computer simulation model is compared with the tolerable evacuation time according to code in Japan. As a result, all cases are completed within the tolerable evacuation time. This study allows predicting evacuation time under various conditions of fire and can be used to evaluate evacuation appropriateness and fire safety of building.

Keywords: fire simulation, evacuation simulation, temperature, evacuation safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Sajad Shokohuyar, Mahsa Zomorrodi Anbaji, Saghar Pouyan Shad

Abstract:

According to fast technology growth, modern banking tries to decrease going to banks’ branches and increase customers’ consent. One of the problems which banks face is securing customer’s password. The banks’ solution is one time password creation system. In this research by adapting from acceptance of technology model theory, assesses factors that are effective on banking in Iran especially in using one time password machine by one of the private banks of Iran customers. The statistical population is all of this bank’s customers who use electronic banking service and one time password technology and the questionnaires were distributed among members of statistical population in 5 selected groups of north, south, center, east and west of Tehran. Findings show that confidential preservation, education, ease of utilization and advertising and informing has positive relations and distinct hardware and age has negative relations.

Keywords: security, electronic banking, one time password, information technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Sumit Sen, Sohan Khedekar, Umang Shinde, Shivam Bhargava

Abstract:

This study has been undertaken to investigate whether the deep learning models are able to predict the future stock prices by training the model with the historical stock price data. Since this work required time series analysis, various models are present today to perform time series analysis such as Recurrent Neural Network LSTM, ARIMA and Facebook Prophet. Applying these models the movement of stock price of stocks are predicted and also tried to provide the future prediction of the stock price of a stock. Final product will be a stock price prediction web application that is developed for providing the user the ease of analysis of the stocks and will also provide the predicted stock price for the next seven days.

Keywords: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Deep Learning, Long Short Term Memory, Time-series

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: C. Yin, B. Zhang, Y. Liu, J. Cai

Abstract:

Airborne EM (AEM) is an effective geophysical exploration tool, especially suitable for ridged mountain areas. In these areas, topography will have serious effects on AEM system responses. However, until now little study has been reported on topographic effect on airborne EM systems. In this paper, an edge-based unstructured finite-element (FE) method is developed for 3D topographic modeling for both frequency and time-domain airborne EM systems. Starting from the frequency-domain Maxwell equations, a vector Helmholtz equation is derived to obtain a stable and accurate solution. Considering that the AEM transmitter and receiver are both located in the air, the scattered field method is used in our modeling. The Galerkin method is applied to discretize the Helmholtz equation for the final FE equations. Solving the FE equations, the frequency-domain AEM responses are obtained. To accelerate the calculation speed, the response of source in free-space is used as the primary field and the PARDISO direct solver is used to deal with the problem with multiple transmitting sources. After calculating the frequency-domain AEM responses, a Hankel’s transform is applied to obtain the time-domain AEM responses. To check the accuracy of present algorithm and to analyze the characteristic of topographic effect on airborne EM systems, both the frequency- and time-domain AEM responses for 3 model groups are simulated: 1) a flat half-space model that has a semi-analytical solution of EM response; 2) a valley or hill earth model; 3) a valley or hill earth with an abnormal body embedded. Numerical experiments show that close to the node points of the topography, AEM responses demonstrate sharp changes. Special attentions need to be paid to the topographic effects when interpreting AEM survey data over rugged topographic areas. Besides, the profile of the AEM responses presents a mirror relation with the topographic earth surface. In comparison to the topographic effect that mainly occurs at the high-frequency end and early time channels, the EM responses of underground conductors mainly occur at low frequencies and later time channels. For the signal of the same time channel, the dB/dt field reflects the change of conductivity better than the B-field. The research of this paper will serve airborne EM in the identification and correction of the topographic effects.

Keywords: 3D, Airborne EM, forward modeling, topographic effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Ioana Neamtu

Abstract:

This paper investigates the potential for demand-side management for the system price in the Nordic electricity market and the price effects of introducing wind-power into the system. The model proposed accounts for the micro-structure of the Nordic electricity market by modeling each hour individually, while still accounting for the relationship between the hours within a day. This flexibility allows us to explore the differences between peak and shoulder demand hours. Preliminary results show potential for demand response management, as indicated by the price elasticity of demand as well as a small but statistically significant decrease in price, given by the wind power penetration. Moreover, our study shows that these effects are stronger during day-time and peak hours,compared to night-time and shoulder hours.

Keywords: structural model, GMM estimation, system of equations, electricity market

Procedia PDF Downloads 428

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, J. O. Adekunle

Abstract:

The incubation period is defined as the time from infection with a microorganism to development of symptoms. In this research, two disease models: one with incubation period and another without incubation period were studied. The study involves the use of a  mathematical model with a single incubation period. The test for the existence and stability of the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states for both models were carried out. The fourth order Runge-Kutta method was used to solve both models numerically. Finally, a computer program in MATLAB was developed to run the numerical experiments. From the results, we are able to show that the endemic equilibrium state of the model with incubation period is locally asymptotically stable whereas the endemic equilibrium state of the model without incubation period is unstable under certain conditions on the given model parameters. It was also established that the disease free equilibrium states of the model with and without incubation period are locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, results from numerical experiments using empirical data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) showed that the overall population of the infected people for the model with incubation period is higher than that without incubation period. We also established from the results obtained that as the transmission rate from susceptible to infected population increases, the peak values of the infected population for the model with incubation period decrease and are always less than those for the model without incubation period.

Keywords: asymptotic stability, Hartman-Grobman stability criterion, incubation period, Routh-Hurwitz criterion, Runge-Kutta method

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: H. R. Fazlollahi

Abstract:

Dark Energy origin is unknown and so describing this mysterious component in large scale structure needs to manipulate our theories in general relativity. Although in most models, dark energy arises from extra terms through modifying Einstein-Hilbert action, maybe its origin traces back to fundamental aspects of ground energy of space-time given in quantum mechanics. Hence, diluting space-time in general relativity with quantum mechanics properties leads to the Karolyhazy relation corresponding energy density of quantum fluctuations of space-time. Through generalized uncertainty principle and an eye to Karolyhazy approach in this study we extend energy density of quantum fluctuations of space-time. Also, the application of this idea is considered in late time evolution and we have shown how extra term in generalized uncertainty principle plays as a plausible interaction term role in suggested model.

Keywords: generalized uncertainty principle, karolyhazy approach, agegraphic dark energy, cosmology

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Likewin Thomas, M. V. Manoj Kumar, B. Annappa

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to develop an Artificial Neural Network0 s recommendation model for an online process using the complexity of load, performance, and average servicing time of the resources. Here, the proposed model investigates the resource performance using stochastic gradient decent method for learning ranking function. A probabilistic cost function is implemented to identify the optimal θ values (load) on each resource. Based on this result the recommendation of resource suitable for performing the currently executing task is made. The test result of CoSeLoG project is presented with an accuracy of 72.856%.

Keywords: ADALINE, neural network, gradient decent, process mining, resource behaviour, polynomial regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: P. Ghann, J. Shiguang, C. Zhou

Abstract:

Access control is one of the most challenging issues facing information security. Access control is defined as, the ability to permit or deny access to a particular computational resource or digital information by an unauthorized user or subject. The concept of usage control (UCON) has been introduced as a unified approach to capture a number of extensions for access control models and systems. In UCON, an access decision is determined by three factors: Authorizations, obligations and conditions. Attribute mutability and decision continuity are two distinct characteristics introduced by UCON for the first time. An observation of UCON components indicates that, the components are predefined and static. In this paper, we propose a new and flexible model of usage control for the creation and elimination of some of these components; for example new objects, subjects, attributes and integrate these with the original UCON model. We also propose a model for concurrent usage scenarios in UCON.

Keywords: access control, concurrency, digital container, usage control

Procedia PDF Downloads 315