Search results for: relative risk
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8159

Search results for: relative risk

7529 Simulation of X-Ray Tissue Contrast and Dose Optimisation in Radiological Physics to Improve Medical Imaging Students’ Skills

Authors: Peter J. Riley

Abstract:

Medical Imaging students must understand the roles of Photo-electric Absorption (PE) and Compton Scatter (CS) interactions in patients to enable optimal X-ray imaging in clinical practice. A simulator has been developed that shows relative interaction probabilities, color bars for patient dose from PE, % penetration to the detector, and obscuring CS as Peak Kilovoltage (kVp) changes. Additionally, an anthropomorphic chest X-ray image shows the relative tissue contrasts and overlying CS-fog at that kVp, which determine the detectability of a lesion in the image. A series of interactive exercises with MCQs evaluate the student's understanding; the simulation has improved student perception of the need to acquire "sufficient" rather than maximal contrast to enable patient dose reduction at higher kVp.

Keywords: patient dose optimization, radiological physics, simulation, tissue contrast

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7528 Risk Analysis of Leaks from a Subsea Oil Facility Based on Fuzzy Logic Techniques

Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

Abstract:

The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

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7527 Sexual Risk Behaviours among Patients Living with HIV/AIDS in Douala in 2012

Authors: Etienne Sugewe

Abstract:

Purpose: The establishment of a positive HIV serologic status of an individual could have been an inhibitory factor to prevent risk behaviours in people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a cross-sectional study in order to assess the prevalence and predictors of risk behaviors among HIV-positive people in Douala-Cameroon. Methods: We used pre-checked questionnaires to systematically collect data from four HIV treatment centers in Douala. This was done to some of them during the distribution of drugs and to others during their classical rendezvous between the months of May and July 2012. The Chi-Square and Student t-test were used for cross tabulation of variables; multiple regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of risky sexual behaviours. Results: Of the 330 persons interviewed, sixty percent were reported to have had sexual intercourse after the diagnosis of HIV. We obtained 37% HIV-positive partners, and 63% had HIV- negative partners or partners with unknown status. Among our patients, 45% of the subjects with regular partners reported to have had anal or vaginal sex. Those whose score on the knowledge about HIV/AIDS was < 50% and where 90% of them were less susceptible to the condom during intercourse (p: 0.01). About 74% of patients on ARV were less susceptible to the use of condoms during sexual intercourse (p: 0.03). Conclusion: Risk sexual behaviours among people living with HIV/AIDS are common and potentially expose their partners. For HIV-positive partners, these habits pose a real risk of suprainfection by other strains of HIV. The need to increase awareness and education among people living with HIV is therefore highly recommended.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, behaviours, HIV positive, Douala, 2012

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7526 Sterilization Incident Analysis by the Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method

Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

Abstract:

The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

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7525 Legal Regulation of Personal Information Data Transmission Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the EU’s DPIA

Authors: Cai Qianyi

Abstract:

In the midst of global digital revolution, the flow of data poses security threats that call China's existing legislative framework for protecting personal information into question. As a preliminary procedure for risk analysis and prevention, the risk assessment of personal data transmission lacks detailed guidelines for support. Existing provisions reveal unclear responsibilities for network operators and weakened rights for data subjects. Furthermore, the regulatory system's weak operability and a lack of industry self-regulation heighten data transmission hazards. This paper aims to compare the regulatory pathways for data information transmission risks between China and Europe from a legal framework and content perspective. It draws on the “Data Protection Impact Assessment Guidelines” to empower multiple stakeholders, including data processors, controllers, and subjects, while also defining obligations. In conclusion, this paper intends to solve China's digital security shortcomings by developing a more mature regulatory framework and industry self-regulation mechanisms, resulting in a win-win situation for personal data protection and the development of the digital economy.

Keywords: personal information data transmission, risk assessment, DPIA, internet service provider, personal information data transimission, risk assessment

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7524 Multi-Dimension Threat Situation Assessment Based on Network Security Attributes

Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

Abstract:

As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

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7523 Spatial Planning Model on Landslide Risk Disaster at West Java Geothermal Field, Indonesia

Authors: Herawanti Kumalasari, Raldi Hendro Koestoer, Hayati Sari Hasibuan

Abstract:

Geographically, Indonesia is located in the arc of volcanoes that cause disaster prone one of them is landslide disaster. One of the causes of the landslide is the conversion of land from forest to agricultural land in upland areas and river border that has a steep slope. The study area is located in the highlands with fertile soil conditions, so most of the land is used as agricultural land and plantations. Land use transfer also occurs around the geothermal field in Pangalengan District, West Java Province which will threaten the sustainability of geothermal energy utilization and the safety of the community. The purpose of this research is to arrange the concept of spatial pattern arrangement in the geothermal area based on disaster mitigation. This research method using superimpose analysis. Superimpose analysis to know the basic physical condition of the planned area through the overlay of disaster risk map with the map of the plan of spatial plan pattern of Bandung Regency Spatial Plan. The results of the analysis will then be analyzed spatially. The results have shown that most of the study areas were at moderate risk level. Planning of spatial pattern of existing study area has not fully considering the spread of disaster risk that there are settlement area and the agricultural area which is in high landslide risk area. The concept of the arrangement of the spatial pattern of the study area will use zoning system which is divided into three zones namely core zone, buffer zone and development zone.

Keywords: spatial planning, geothermal, disaster risk, zoning

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7522 Cross-Sectional Study of Critical Parameters on RSET and Decision-Making of At-Risk Groups in Fire Evacuation

Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

Abstract:

Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

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7521 Ecological Risk Assessment of Informal E-Waste Processing in Alaba International Market, Lagos, Nigeria

Authors: A. A. Adebayo, O. Osibanjo

Abstract:

Informal electronic waste (e-waste) processing is a crude method of recycling, which is on the increase in Nigeria. The release of hazardous substances such as heavy metals (HMs) into the environment during informal e-waste processing has been a major concern. However, there is insufficient information on environmental contamination from e-waste recycling, associated ecological risk in Alaba International Market, a major electronic market in Lagos, Nigeria. The aims of this study were to determine the levels of HMs in soil, resulting from the e-waste recycling; and also assess associated ecological risks in Alaba international market. Samples of soils (334) were randomly collected seasonally for three years from fourteen selected e-waste activity points and two control sites. The samples were digested using standard methods and HMs analysed by inductive coupled plasma optical emission. Ecological risk was estimated using Ecological Risk index (ER), Potential Ecological Risk index (RI), Index of geoaccumulation (Igeo), Contamination factor (Cf) and degree of contamination factor (Cdeg). The concentrations range of HMs (mg/kg) in soil were: 16.7-11200.0 (Pb); 14.3-22600.0 (Cu); 1.90-6280.0 (Ni), 39.5-4570.0 (Zn); 0.79-12300.0 (Sn); 0.02-138.0 (Cd); 12.7-1710.0 (Ba); 0.18-131.0 (Cr); 0.07-28.0 (V), while As was below detection limit. Concentrations range in control soils were 1.36-9.70 (Pb), 2.06-7.60 (Cu), 1.25-5.11 (Ni), 3.62-15.9 (Zn), BDL-0.56 (Sn), BDL-0.01 (Cd), 14.6-47.6 (Ba), 0.21–12.2 (Cr) and 0.22-22.2 (V). The trend in ecological risk index was in the order Cu > Pb > Ni > Zn > Cr > Cd > Ba > V. The potential ecological risk index with respect to informal e-waste activities were: burning > dismantling > disposal > stockpiling. The index of geo accumulation indices revealed that soils were extremely polluted with Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni. The contamination factor indicated that 93% of the studied areas have very high contamination status for Pb, Cu, Ba, Sn and Co while Cr and Cd were in the moderately contaminated status. The degree of contamination decreased in the order of Sn > Cu > Pb >> Zn > Ba > Co > Ni > V > Cr > Cd. Heavy metal contamination of Alaba international market environment resulting from informal e-waste processing was established. Proper management of e-waste and remediation of the market environment are recommended to minimize the ecological risks.

Keywords: Alaba international market, ecological risk, electronic waste, heavy metal contamination

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7520 Spectral Coherence Analysis between Grinding Interaction Forces and the Relative Motion of the Workpiece and the Cutting Tool

Authors: Abdulhamit Donder, Erhan Ilhan Konukseven

Abstract:

Grinding operation is performed in order to obtain desired surfaces precisely in machining process. The needed relative motion between the cutting tool and the workpiece is generally created either by the movement of the cutting tool or by the movement of the workpiece or by the movement of both of them as in our case. For all these cases, the coherence level between the movements and the interaction forces is a key influential parameter for efficient grinding. Therefore, in this work, spectral coherence analysis has been performed to investigate the coherence level between grinding interaction forces and the movement of the workpiece on our robotic-grinding experimental setup in METU Mechatronics Laboratory.

Keywords: coherence analysis, correlation, FFT, grinding, hanning window, machining, Piezo actuator, reverse arrangements test, spectral analysis

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7519 Review and Evaluation of Viscose Damper on Structural Responses

Authors: Ehsan Sadie

Abstract:

Developments in the field of damping technology and advances in the area of dampers in equipping many structures have been the result of efforts and testing by researchers in this field. In this paper, a sample of a two-story building is simulated with the help of SAP2000 software, and the effect of a viscous damper on the performance of the structure is explained. The effect of dampers on the response of the structure is investigated. This response involves the horizontal displacement of floors. In this case, the structure is modeled once without a damper and again with a damper. In this regard, the results are presented in the form of tables and graphs. Since the seismic behavior of the structure is studied, the responses show the appropriate effect of viscous dampers in reducing the displacement of floors, and also the energy dissipation in the structure with dampers compared to structures without dampers is significant. Therefore, it is economical to use viscous dampers in areas that have a higher relative earthquake risk.

Keywords: bending frame, displacement criterion, dynamic response spectra, earthquake, non-linear history spectrum, SAP2000 software, structural response, viscous damper

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7518 Altered Lower Extremity Biomechanical Risk Factor Related to Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury in Athlete with Functional Ankle Instability

Authors: Mohammad Karimizadehardakani, Hooman Minoonejad, Reza Rajabi, Ali Sharifnejad

Abstract:

Background: Ankle sprain is one of the most important risk factor of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Also, functional ankle instability (FAI) population has alterations in lower extremity sagittal plane biomechanics during landing task. We want to examine whether biomechanical alterations demonstrated by FAI patients are associated with the mechanism of ACL injury during high risk and sport related tasks. Methods: Sixteen basketball player with FAI and 16 non-injured control performed a single-leg cross drop landing. Knee sagittal and frontal (ATSF) was calculated. Independent t-tests, multiple linear regression, and Pearson correlation were used for analysis data. Result: Subject with FAI showed more peak ATFS, posterior ground reaction force (GRF) and less knee flexion, compared to the controls (P= 0.001, P= 0.004, P= 0.011). Knee flexion (r= −0.824, P = 0.011) and posterior GRF (r= 0.901, P = .001) were correlated with ATSF; Posterior GRF was factor that most explained the variance in ATSF (R2= 0.645; P = .001) in the FAI group. Conclusions: Result of our study showed there is a potential biomechanical relationship between the presence of FAI and risk factors associated with ACL injury mechanism.

Keywords: functional ankle instability, anterior cruciate ligament, biomechanics, risk factor

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7517 Coastal Vulnerability Index and Its Projection for Odisha Coast, East Coast of India

Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone

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7516 Strategic Risk Issues for Film Distributors of Hindi Film Industry in Mumbai: A Grounded Theory Approach

Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

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7515 Meteorological Risk Assessment for Ships with Fuzzy Logic Designer

Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

Abstract:

Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safety navigation of ships

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7514 The Tracking and Hedging Performances of Gold ETF Relative to Some Other Instruments in the UK

Authors: Abimbola Adedeji, Ahmad Shauqi Zubir

Abstract:

This paper examines the profitability and risk between investing in gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) and gold mutual funds compares to gold prices. The main focus in determining whether there are similarities or differences between those financial products is the tracking error. The importance of understanding the similarities or differences between the gold ETFs, gold mutual funds and gold prices is derived from the fact that gold ETFs and gold mutual funds are used as substitutions for investors who are looking to profit from gold prices although they are short in capital. 10 hypotheses were tested. There are 3 types of tracking error used. Tracking error 1 and 3 gives results that differentiate between types of ETFs and mutual funds, hence yielding the answers in answering the hypotheses that were developed. However, tracking error 2 failed to give the answer that could shed light on the questions raised in this study. All of the results in tracking error 2 technique only telling us that the difference between the ups and downs of the financial instruments are similar, statistically to the physical gold prices movement.

Keywords: gold etf, gold mutual funds, tracking error

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7513 Occupational Heat Stress Condition According to Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Textile Processing Unit: A Case Study of Surat, Gujarat, India

Authors: Dharmendra Jariwala, Robin Christian

Abstract:

Thermal exposure is a common problem in every manufacturing industry where heat is used in the manufacturing process. In developing countries like India, a lack of awareness regarding the proper work environmental condition is observed among workers. Improper planning of factory building, arrangement of machineries, ventilation system, etc. play a vital role in the rise of temperature within the manufacturing areas. Due to the uncontrolled thermal stress, workers may be subjected to various heat illnesses from mild disorder to heat stroke. Heat stress is responsible for the health risk and reduction in production. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index and relative humidity are used to evaluate heat stress conditions. WBGT index is a weighted average of natural wet bulb temperature, globe temperature, dry bulb temperature, which are measured with standard instrument QuestTemp 36 area stress monitor. In this study textile processing units have been selected in the industrial estate in the Surat city. Based on the manufacturing process six locations were identified within the plant at which process was undertaken at 120°C to 180°C. These locations were jet dying machine area, stenter machine area, printing machine, looping machine area, washing area which generate process heat. Office area was also selected for comparision purpose as a sixth location. Present Study was conducted in the winter season and summer season for day and night shift. The results shows that average WBGT index was found above Threshold Limiting Value (TLV) during summer season for day and night shift in all three industries except office area. During summer season highest WBGT index of 32.8°C was found during day shift and 31.5°C was found during night shift at printing machine area. Also during winter season highest WBGT index of 30°C and 29.5°C was found at printing machine area during day shift and night shift respectively.

Keywords: relative humidity, textile industry, thermal stress, WBGT

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7512 Risk Assessment of Radiation Hazard for a Typical WWER1000: Cancer Risk Analysis during a Hypothetical Accident

Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

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In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

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7511 Modification of Working Conditions Based on Participatory Ergonomics to Improve Occupational Health and Safety (K3) and Welding Worker Productivity

Authors: Tri Wisudawati, Radita Dwi Putera

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The role of human resources is the basic capital in determining the purpose of a business place. Without the role of human resources, activities in the company will not run smoothly. Every business place always has a risk of accidents. The magnitude of the risk that occurs depends on the type of industry, technology, and risk control efforts made. Work-related accidents are accidents that occur due to work or while carrying out work. Welding MSMEs have a fairly high risk to health, safety and the environment both from the side of workers who can cause accidents and from the side of the work environment, which has the potential to become a hazard and risk. Participatory ergonomic intervention can be a feasible and effective approach to reducing exposure to work-related risk factors in developing country industries. Complaints about occupational health and safety experienced by workers in the welding workshop industry should be able to be overcome by implementing an ergonomic intervention approach. The analysis process includes HIRARC analysis, participatory ergonomics analysis, and SEM-PLS analysis. Hierarch analysis is carried out by assessing the level of severity and likelihood, as well as risk control. At the participatory ergonomics analysis stage, it is obtained from the organizational culture and organizational stakeholders. At the SEM-PLS stage, an analysis is carried out to see whether there is a strong relationship between the research variables in order to produce occupational health and safety (K3) and worker productivity in the welding shop better and in accordance with welding safety standards. So that the output of this study is how participatory ergonomics interventions affect working conditions to improve occupational health and safety and the productivity of welding workers.

Keywords: ergonomic partisipatory, health and safety, welding workers, welding safety

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7510 Investing in Shares of Innovative Companies: The Risk and the Return, Evidence from Polish Capital Market

Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki

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Due to the growing global interest of investment society in innovative enterprises, as the objective of this research was adopted to examine the investment efficiency in shares of companies with innovative characteristics in the risk-return layout. The research was carried out for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange taking into various consideration time ranges of investment. Obtained results show that in shorter periods of time, investors buy expectations connected with innovative companies and therefore the efficiency of investment in their shares is relatively high, but in the longer term expectations are revised by companies financial results, which in turn negatively affects the efficiency of investment in their shares.

Keywords: capital market, innovative company, investment strategies, risk and return analysis

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7509 There Is a Reversal Effect of Relative Age in Elite Senior Athletics: Successful Young Men Are «Early-Born Athletes», While in Adults There Are More «Late-Born» Athletes

Authors: Bezuglov Eduard, Achkasov Evgeniy, Emanov Anton, Shagiakhmetova Larisa, Pirmakhanov Bekzhan, Morgans Ryland

Abstract:

Background: Previous studies have found that there is a wide range of the relative age effect (RAE) in young athletes, which is dependent on age and gender. However, there is currently scant data comparing the prevalence of the RAE in successful athletes across different age groups from the same sport during the same time period. We aimed to compare the prevalence of the RAE in different age groups of successful athletes. Materials and methods: The date of birth of all youth (under 18 years old) and senior (20 years and above) male and female track and field athletes were analyzed. All athletes had entered the World Top 20 rankings in disciplines where performance rules were the same at youth and adult levels. Data were collected from the website www. tilostopaja.eu between 1999 and 2006. Results: A significant prevalence of RAE in successful youth track and field athletes were reported. Early-born (61,1%) and late-born (38,9%) athletes were represented respectively (χ2 = 131,1, p < 0,001, ϖ = 0,24). The RAE is not significant in successful senior track and field athletes. Athletes born in the first half of the year are only 0.4% more prevalent than athletes born in the second half of the year (50,2% and 49,8%, respectively). Olympic Games and World Championship medalists are more often late-born athletes (44,1% and 55,9%, respectively) (p = 0,014, χ2 = 6,1, ϖ = 0,20). Conclusion: The RAE is only prevalent in successful young track and field athletes. The RAE was not observed in successful senior track and field athletes, regardless of gender, in any of the analyzed discipline groups. The RAE reverse was observed in successful senior track and field athletes.

Keywords: relative age effect, track, and field, talent identification, underdog effect

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7508 Modelling the Effects of External Factors Affecting Concrete Carbonation

Authors: Abhishek Mangal, Kunal Tongaria, S. Mandal, Devendra Mohan

Abstract:

Carbonation of reinforced concrete structures has emerged as one of the major challenges for Civil engineers across the world. With increasing emissions from various activities, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has been eve rising, enhancing its penetration in porous concrete, reaching steel bars and ultimately leading to premature failure. Several literatures have been published dealing with the various interdependent variables related to carbonation. However, with innumerable variability a generalization of these data proves to be a troublesome task. This paper looks into this carbonation anomaly in concrete structures caused by various external variables such as relative humidity, concentration of CO2, curing period and ambient temperature. Significant discussions and comparisons have been presented on the basis of various studies conducted with an aim to predict the depth of carbonation as a function of these multidimensional parameters using various numerical and statistical modelling techniques.

Keywords: carbonation, curing, exposure conditions, relative humidity

Procedia PDF Downloads 254
7507 Employing GIS to Analyze Areas Prone to Flooding: Case Study of Thailand

Authors: Sanpachai Huvanandana, Settapong Malisuwan, Soparwan Tongyuak, Prust Pannachet, Anong Phoepueak, Navneet Madan

Abstract:

Many regions of Thailand are prone to flooding due to tropical climate. A commonly increasing precipitation in this continent results in risk of flooding. Many efforts have been implemented such as drainage control system, multiple dams, and irrigation canals. In order to decide where the drainages, dams, and canal should be appropriately located, the flooding risk area should be determined. This paper is aimed to identify the appropriate features that can be used to classify the flooding risk area in Thailand. Several features have been analyzed and used to classify the area. Non-supervised clustering techniques have been used and the results have been compared with ten years average actual flooding area.

Keywords: flood area clustering, geographical information system, flood features

Procedia PDF Downloads 296
7506 Analysis of Supply Chain Complexity Sub-Dimensions for Garment Industry

Authors: Niyanta Mehra, Aakriti Khurania, Kshitij Rastogi, S. K. Garg

Abstract:

There is plenty of literature available that accounts for complexity management in a supply chain. A major fraction of this literature considers a large number of parameters in order to devise management techniques. However, multiple such parameters do not directly affect the result, and incorporating these can make the analyses overly complicated. Most of the causes of supply chain inefficiencies are due to the interconnectedness and interdependencies in the structure, processes, and environment of the supply chains. The level of complexity varies across industries in terms of intensity and ease of management. After a review of the literature related to complexities in supply chains, the paper attempts to build a framework to study the relative significance of these complexities. This paper aims to identify critical complexities for the garment industry. Understanding and controlling these complexities open avenues for better supply chain management and also assist decision-makers in the garment industry in formulating risk mitigation strategies.

Keywords: complexity dimensions, garment industry, supply chain complexity, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
7505 Xeroderma Pigmentosum Group G: Gene Polymorphism and Risk of Breast Cancer

Authors: Malik SS, Masood N, Mubarik S, Khadim TM

Abstract:

Introduction: Xeroderma pigmentosum group G (XPG) gene plays a crucial role in the correction of UV-induced DNA damage through nucleotide excision repair pathway. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in XPG gene have been reported to be associated with different cancers. Current case-control study was designed to evaluate the relationship between one of the most frequently found XPG (rs1047768 T>C) polymorphism and breast cancer risk. Methodology: A total of 200 individuals were screened for this polymorphism including 100 pathologically confirmed breast cancer cases and age-matched 100 controls. Genotyping was carried out using Tetra amplification-refractory mutation system (ARMS) PCR and results were confirmed by gel electrophoresis. Results: Conditional logistic regression analysis showed significant association between TC genotype (OR: 8.9, CI: 2.0 – 38.7) and increased breast cancer risk. Although homozygous CC genotype was more frequent in patients as compared to controls, but it was statistically non-significant (OR: 3.9, CI: 0.4 – 35.7). Conclusion: In conclusion, XPG (rs1047768 T>C) polymorphism may contribute towards increased risk of breast cancer but other polymorphisms may also be evaluated to elucidate their role in breast cancer.

Keywords: XPG, breast cancer, NER, ARMS-PCR

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7504 Time Series Simulation by Conditional Generative Adversarial Net

Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 144
7503 Identifying Factors Linking Childhood Neglect to Opiate Use

Authors: Usha Barahmand, Ali Khazaee, Goudarz Sadeghi Hashjin

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to assess the relative mediating effects of impulsivity and internalizing problems in the relationship between childhood neglect and motives for opiate use. Seventy-two adolescent opiate users were recruited for the study. Participants completed assessments of childhood abuse history, distress, impulsiveness and motives for substance use as well as a socio-demographic information sheet. Findings from bootstrap mediator analyses indicated that distress, but not impulsiveness, mediated the relationship between childhood emotional abuse and expansion and enhancement motives for substance use. The current study provides preliminary evidence that internalizing problems may function as a mechanism linking prior childhood experiences of emotional neglect to subsequent motives for substance use. Clinical implications of these findings suggest that targeting emotion dysregulation problems may be an effective adjunct in the treatment of adolescents with a history of childhood maltreatment that are at risk for substance use.

Keywords: childhood neglect, impulsiveness, internalizing problems, substance use motives

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7502 Severe Bone Marrow Edema on Sacroiliac Joint MRI Increases the Risk of Low BMD in Patients with Axial Spondyloarthritis

Authors: Kwi Young Kang

Abstract:

Objective: To determine the association between inflammatory and structural lesions on sacroiliac joint (SIJ) MRI and BMD and to identify risk factors for low BMD in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Methods: Seventy-six patients who fulfilled the ASAS axSpA criteria were enrolled. All underwent SIJ MRI and BMD measurement at the lumbar spine, femoral neck, and total hip. Inflammatory and structural lesions on SIJ MRI were scored. Laboratory tests and assessment of radiographic and disease activity were performed at the time of MRI. The association between SIJ MRI findings and BMD was evaluated. Results: Among the 76 patients, 14 (18%) had low BMD. Patients with low BMD showed significantly higher bone marrow edema (BME) and deep BME scores on MRI than those with normal BMD (p<0.047 and 0.007, respectively). Inflammatory lesions on SIJ MRI correlated with BMD at the femoral neck and total hip. Multivariate analysis identified the presence of deep BME on SIJ MRI, increased CRP, and sacroiliitis on X-ray as risk factors for low BMD (OR: 5.6, 14.6, and 2.5, respectively). Conclusion: The presence of deep BME on SIJ MRI, increased CRP levels, and severity of sacroiliitis on X-ray were independent risk factors for low BMD.

Keywords: axial spondyloarthritis, sacroiliac joint MRI, bone mineral density, sacroiliitis

Procedia PDF Downloads 533
7501 The Role of Labour Substitution by Age in the Effect of Fertility on Living Standards: Simulations for Scandinavia

Authors: Ross Guest, Bjarne Jensen

Abstract:

This paper analyses a potentially new consumption dividend from lower fertility arising from imperfect labour substitution by age. A smaller proportion of young workers relative to older workers raises relative youth wages given imperfect labour substitution by age. Discounted lifetime labour income rises which provides a consumption dividend. Simulation results are reported for the four Scandinavian countries, adopting a simple overlapping generations model. Imperfect labour substitution is modelled using a CRESH functional form of an aggregate labour index. The magnitudes of this new consumption dividend from a Low fertility projection compared with a high fertility projection are found to be approximately 4 percent annually, on average over the Scandinavian countries in the very long run, but somewhat lower in the short term. There is some sensitivity to the interest rate and the degree of consumption smoothing.

Keywords: fertility, consumption, productivity, labour substitution

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
7500 Enterprise Risk Management, Human Capital and Organizational Performance: Insights from Public Listed Companies

Authors: Omar Moafaq Saleh Aljanabi, Noradiva Hamzah, Ruhanita Maelah

Abstract:

In today’s challenging global economy, which is driven by information and knowledge, risk management is undergoing a great change, as organizations shift from traditional and compartmental risk management to an enterprise-wide approach. Enterprise risk management (ERM), which aims at increasing the sustainability of an organization and achieving competitive advantage, is gaining global attention and fast becoming an essential concern in all industries. Furthermore, in order to be effective, ERM should be managed by managers with high-level skills and knowledge. Despite the importance of the knowledge embedded in, there remains a paucity of evidence concerning how human capital could influence the organization’s ERM. Responses from 116 public listed companies (PLCs) on the main market of Bursa Malaysia were analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). This study found that there is a significant association between ERM and organizational performance. The results also indicate that human capital has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between ERM and performance. The study contributes to the ERM literature by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between ERM, human capital, and organizational performance. Findings from this study also provide guidelines for managers, policy makers, and the regulatory bodies, to evaluate the ERM practices in PLCs.

Keywords: enterprise risk management, human capital, organizational performance, Malaysian public listed companies

Procedia PDF Downloads 198