Search results for: logistic regression with random effects

Authors: Kawthar F. Albasri, Abdullah M. AlHudaithi, Dana B. AlTurairi, Abdullaziz S. AlQuraini, Adoub Y. AlDerazi, Reem A. Hubail, Haitham A. Jahrami

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Several studies have found that medical students have a significant prevalence of anxiety. The purpose of this review paper is to carefully evaluate the current research on anxiety among medical students in the MENA region and, as a result, estimate the prevalence of these disturbances. Multiple databases, including the CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), Cochrane Library, Embase, MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online), PubMed, PsycINFO (Psychological Information Database), Scopus, Web of Science, UpToDate, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO Global Health Library, EbscoHost, ProQuest, JAMA Network, and ScienceDirect, were searched. The retrieved article reference lists were rigorously searched and rated for quality. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to compute estimates. The current meta-analysis revealed an alarming estimated pooled prevalence of anxiety (K = 46, N = 27023) of 52.5% [95%CI: 43.3%–61.6%]. A total of 62.0% [95% CI 42.9%; 78.0%] of the students (K = 18, N = 16466) suffered from anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic, while 52.5% [95% CI 43.3%; 61.6%] had anxiety before COVID-19. Based on the GAD-7 measure, a total of 55.7% [95%CI 30.5%; 78.3%] of the students (K = 10, N = 5830) had anxiety, and a total of 54.7% of the students (K = 18, N = 12154) [95%CI 42.8%; 66.0%] had anxiety using the DASS-21 or 42 measure. Anxiety is a common issue among medical students, making it a genuine problem. Further research should be conducted post-COVD 19, with a focus on anxiety prevention and intervention initiatives for medical students.

Keywords: anxiety, medical students, MENA, meta-analysis, prevalence

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Authors: Xingyu Gao, Qiang Wu

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Patents play a crucial role in protecting innovation and intellectual property. Early prediction of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) patents helps researchers and companies allocate resources and make better decisions. Understanding the key factors that influence patent impact can assist researchers in gaining a better understanding of the evolution of AI technology and innovation trends. Therefore, identifying highly impactful patents early and providing support for them holds immeasurable value in accelerating technological progress, reducing research and development costs, and mitigating market positioning risks. Despite the extensive research on AI patents, accurately predicting their early impact remains a challenge. Traditional methods often consider only single factors or simple combinations, failing to comprehensively and accurately reflect the actual impact of patents. This paper utilized the artificial intelligence patent database from the United States Patent and Trademark Office and the Len.org patent retrieval platform to obtain specific information on 35,708 AI patents. Using six machine learning models, namely Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest Regression, XGBoost Regression, LightGBM Regression, Support Vector Machine Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbors Regression, and using early indicators of patents as features, the paper comprehensively predicted the impact of patents from three aspects: technical, social, and economic. These aspects include the technical leadership of patents, the number of citations they receive, and their shared value. The SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) metric was used to explain the predictions of the best model, quantifying the contribution of each feature to the model's predictions. The experimental results on the AI patent dataset indicate that, for all three target variables, LightGBM regression shows the best predictive performance. Specifically, patent novelty has the greatest impact on predicting the technical impact of patents and has a positive effect. Additionally, the number of owners, the number of backward citations, and the number of independent claims are all crucial and have a positive influence on predicting technical impact. In predicting the social impact of patents, the number of applicants is considered the most critical input variable, but it has a negative impact on social impact. At the same time, the number of independent claims, the number of owners, and the number of backward citations are also important predictive factors, and they have a positive effect on social impact. For predicting the economic impact of patents, the number of independent claims is considered the most important factor and has a positive impact on economic impact. The number of owners, the number of sibling countries or regions, and the size of the extended patent family also have a positive influence on economic impact. The study primarily relies on data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office for artificial intelligence patents. Future research could consider more comprehensive data sources, including artificial intelligence patent data, from a global perspective. While the study takes into account various factors, there may still be other important features not considered. In the future, factors such as patent implementation and market applications may be considered as they could have an impact on the influence of patents.

Keywords: patent influence, interpretable machine learning, predictive models, SHAP

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Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

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There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone, least squares method, regression models

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Authors: Dua Hişam, Serhat İkizoğlu

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Identifying the problem behind balance disorder is one of the most interesting topics in the medical literature. This study has considerably enhanced the development of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms applying multiple machine learning (ML) models to sensory data on gait collected from humans to classify between normal people and those suffering from Vestibular System (VS) problems. Although AI is widely utilized as a diagnostic tool in medicine, AI models have not been used to perform feature extraction and identify VS disorders through training on raw data. In this study, three machine learning (ML) models, the Random Forest Classifier (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), have been trained to detect VS disorder, and the performance comparison of the algorithms has been made using accuracy, recall, precision, and f1-score. With an accuracy of 95.28 %, Random Forest Classifier (RF) was the most accurate model.

Keywords: vestibular disorder, machine learning, random forest classifier, k-nearest neighbor, extreme gradient boosting

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Authors: Claudia Troccoli

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Childbearing constitutes one of the key factors affecting labour market differences between men and women, accounting for almost a quarter of the gender wage gap. Family leave policies, such as maternity, paternity, and parental leave, represent potential key policy tools to address these inequalities, as they can promote mothers' job continuity and career progression. This paper analyses four major reforms implemented in Finland between the 1960s and the early 1980s. It studies the effects of these maternity and parental leave extensions on mothers' short- and long-run labour market outcomes. Eligibility to longer leave was determined on the basis of the child's date of birth. Therefore, estimation of the causal effects of the reforms is possible by exploiting random variation in children's birthdates and comparing the outcomes of mothers giving birth just before and just after the reform cutoff date. Overall, the three maternity leave reforms did not significantly improve mothers' earnings or employment rates. On the contrary, the estimates, although imprecise, seem to indicate negative effects on women's labour market outcomes. The extension of parental leave is, on the other hand, the only reform that improved mothers' short- and long-term labour market outcomes, both in terms of earnings and employment rate. At the same time, fathers appeared to be negatively affected by the reform. These results provide suggestive evidence that shareable parental leave might have more beneficial effects on mothers' job continuity, as it weakens the connotation of childcare as a task reserved for mothers.

Keywords: family policies, Finland, maternal labour market outcomes, maternity leave

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Authors: L. S. Chathurika

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Early prediction of student performance is an important factor to be gained academic excellence. Whatever the study stream in secondary education, students lay the foundation for higher studies during the first year of their degree or diploma program in Sri Lanka. The information technology (IT) field has certain improvements in the education domain by selecting specialization areas to show the talents and skills of students. These specializations can be software engineering, network administration, database administration, multimedia design, etc. After completing the first-year, students attempt to select the best path by considering numerous factors. The purpose of this experiment is to predict the best study path using machine learning algorithms. Five classification algorithms: decision tree, support vector machine, artificial neural network, Naïve Bayes, and logistic regression are selected and tested. The support vector machine obtained the highest accuracy, 82.4%. Then affecting features are recognized to select the best study path.

Keywords: algorithm, classification, evaluation, features, testing, training

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Authors: Mbuso Siwela

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Background: The Sub-Saharan Africa region has the greatest number of people eligible to receive antiretroviral treatment (ART). Multi-month Drug dispensing (MMD) of antiretroviral treatment (ART) aims to reduce patient-related barriers to access long-term treatment and improve health system efficiency. In Eswatini, however, few children and adolescents are on MMD. Young Heroes is implementing an HIV program that aims to avert new HIV infections in children and youth and improve treatment outcomes for children and adolescents living with HIV (C/ALHIV: 0-19 Years) and OVC caregivers with HIV prevention and impact mitigation interventions that prevent new HIV infections and reduce vulnerability. Aim of the study: The study aimed to ascertain factors that are associated with the assignment of the MMD model on C/ALHIVs. Methodology: The project provides treatment adherence support through well-trained community cadres (Home Visitors - HVs) at both community and health facility levels. During door-to-door visits, HVs track all C/ALHIV enrolled in the project monthly and refer any who might have stopped or interrupted treatment. C/ALHIV with unsuppressed viral load is supported through case conferencing and teen clubs. A quantitative cross-sectional analysis was conducted using STATA for children and adolescents living with HIV enrolled in the project. Bivariate analysis was conducted, and the Logistic Regression model was used to ascertain the effects of duration on ART on the choice of MMD model. Results: Data for 544 C/ALHIV (0-19 Years) was analyzed in STATA. Results show a strong association between (duration on ART, Age, being in teen club) and enrolment in an MMD model. Duration on ART is a major predictor for the choice of MMD model at (95% CI: 0.0012905 – 0.0039812; P = <0.0001). C/ALHIV who have been on ART for less than a year are less likely to be on MMD. C/ALHIVs who are 1 or more years on ART are more likely to be in 3 months dispensing, while those who are 5 years or more are most likely to be in 6 months model.

Keywords: C/ALHIV, OVC, HIV, treatment

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Authors: Rexa Pasha

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The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between depression, stress and life satisfaction with sleep disturbance among Islamic Azad University Ahvaz Branch students. Samples in the study included 230 students who were selected by stratified random sampling. For data collection, the Beck Depression Inventory, stress, life satisfaction and quality of sleep (PSQI) was used. Which all have acceptable reliability and validity. This study was correlation and Data analysis using Pearson correlation and multivariate regression significance level (pKeywords: depression, life satisfaction, sleep disorder, sleep disturbane

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Authors: Mais Khader, Xingjie Wei

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This research sheds light on female entrepreneurs by providing new insights on the survival predictions of companies led by females in the UK. This study aims to build a predictive machine learning model of the survival of female-led & co-led small & medium enterprises (SMEs) in the UK over the period 2000-2020. The predictive model built utilised a combination of financial and non-financial features related to both companies and their directors to predict SMEs' survival. These features were studied in terms of their contribution to the resultant predictive model. Five machine learning models are used in the modelling: Decision tree, AdaBoost, Naïve Bayes, Logistic regression and SVM. The AdaBoost model had the highest performance of the five models, with an accuracy of 73% and an AUC of 80%. The results show high feature importance in predicting companies' survival for company size, management experience, financial performance, industry, region, and females' percentage in management.

Keywords: company survival, entrepreneurship, females, machine learning, SMEs

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Authors: V. Rekha, Rama Pal

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The study examines the degree and magnitude of wealth-based inequalities in child health and its determinants in India. Despite making strides in economic growth, India has failed to secure a better nutritional status for all the children. The country currently faces the double burden of malnutrition as well as the problems of overweight and obesity. Child malnutrition, obesity, unsafe water, sanitation among others are identified as the risk factors for Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs). Eliminating malnutrition in all its forms will catalyse improved health and economic outcomes. The assessment of the distributive dimension of child health across various segments of the population is essential for effective policy intervention. The study utilises the fourth round of District Level Health Survey for 2012-13 to analyse the inequalities among children in the age group 0-14 years in Maharashtra, a state in the western region of India with a population of 11.24 crores which constitutes 9.3 percent of the total population of India. The study considers the extent of health inequality by state, districts, sector, age-groups, and gender. The z-scores of four child health outcome variables are computed to assess the nutritional status of pre-school and school children using WHO reference. The descriptive statistics, concentration curves, concentration indices, correlation matrix, logistic regression have been used to analyse the data. The results indicate that magnitude of inequality is higher in Maharashtra and child health inequalities manifest primarily among the weaker sections of society. The concentration curves show that there exists a pro-poor inequality in child malnutrition measured by stunting, wasting, underweight, anaemia and a pro-rich overweight inequality. The inequalities in anaemia are observably lower due to the widespread prevalence. Rural areas exhibit a higher incidence of malnutrition, but greater inequality is observed in the urban areas. Overall, the wealth-based inequalities do not vary significantly between age groups. It appears that there is no gender discrimination at the state level. Further, rural-urban differentials in gender show that boys from the rural area and girls living in the urban region experience higher disparities in health. The relative distribution of undernutrition across districts in Maharashtra reveals that malnutrition is rampant and considerable heterogeneity also exists. A negative correlation is established between malnutrition prevalence and human development indicators. The findings of logistic regression analysis reveal that lower economic status of the household is associated with a higher probability of being malnourished. The study recognises household wealth, education of the parent, child gender, and household size as factors significantly related to malnutrition. The results suggest that among the supply-side variables, child-oriented government programmes might be beneficial in tackling nutrition deficit. In order to bridge the health inequality gap, the government needs to target the schemes better and should expand the coverage of services.

Keywords: child health, inequality, malnutrition, obesity

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Authors: A. Rostampouryasouri, A. Maghoul, S. Tahersima

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The rapid growth of urbanization and the subsequent increase in population in cities have resulted in the destruction of the environment to cater to the needs of citizens. The industrialization of urban life has led to the production of pollutants, which has significantly contributed to the rise of air pollution. Infrastructure can have both positive and negative effects on air pollution. The effects of infrastructure on air pollution are complex and depend on various factors such as the type of infrastructure, location, and context. This study examines the effects of infrastructure on air pollution, drawing on a range of empirical evidence from Iran and China. Our paper focus for analyzing the data is on the following concepts: 1. Urban design and planning principles and practices 2. Infrastructure efficiency and optimization strategies 3. Public transportation systems and their environmental impact 4. GHG emissions reduction strategies in urban areas 5. Case studies and best practices in sustainable urban development This paper employs a mixed methodology approach with a focus on developmental and applicative purposes. The mixed methods approach combines both quantitative and qualitative research methods to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the research topic. A group of 20 architectural specialists and experts who are proficient in the field of research, design, and implementation of green architecture projects were interviewed in a systematic and purposeful manner. The research method was based on content analysis using MAXQDA2020 software. The findings suggest that policymakers and urban planners should consider the potential impacts of infrastructure on air pollution and take measures to mitigate negative effects while maximizing positive ones. This includes adopting a nature-based approach to urban planning and infrastructure development, investing in information infrastructure, and promoting modern logistic transport infrastructure.

Keywords: GHG emissions, infrastructure efficiency, urban development, urban design

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Authors: José María Renteria, Vania Salas

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This study explores the impact of inclusive education on the educational outcomes of students without Special Educational Needs (non-SEN) in Peru, utilizing official Ministry of Education data and implementing cross-sectional regression analyses. Inclusive education is a complex issue that, without appropriate adaptations and comprehensive understanding, can present substantial challenges to the educational community. While prior research from developed nations offers diverse perspectives on the effects of inclusive education on non-SEN students, limited evidence exists regarding its impact in developing countries. Our study addresses this gap by examining inclusive education in Peru and its effects on non-SEN students, thereby contributing to the existing literature. the findings reveal that, on average, the presence of SEN students in regular classrooms does not significantly affect their non-SEN counterparts. However, we uncover heterogeneous effects contingent on the specific type of SEN and students’ academic placement. These results emphasize the importance of targeted resources, specialized teachers, and parental involvement in facilitating successful inclusive education, particularly for specific SEN types and students positioned at the lower end of the academic achievement spectrum. In summary, this study underscores the need for tailored strategies and additional resources to foster the success of inclusive education and calls for further research in this field to expand our understanding and enhance educational policy.

Keywords: inclusive education, special educational needs, learning achievement, Peru, Basic education

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Authors: Tshaudi Motsima

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Class attendance is key at all levels of education. At tertiary level many students develop a tendency of not attending all classes without being aware of the repercussions of not attending all classes. It is important for all students to attend all classes as they can receive first-hand information and they can benefit more. The student who attends classes is likely to perform better academically than the student who does not. The aim of this paper is to assess the relationship between class attendance and academic performance of industrial engineering students. The data for this study were collected through the attendance register of students and the other data were accessed from the Integrated Tertiary Software and the Higher Education Data Analyzer Portal. Data analysis was conducted on a sample of 93 students. The results revealed that students with medium predicate scores (OR = 3.8; p = 0.027) and students with low predicate scores (OR = 21.4, p < 0.001) were significantly likely to attend less than 80% of the classes as compared to students with high predicate scores. Students with examination performance of less than 50% were likely to attend less than 80% of classes than students with examination performance of 50% and above, but the differences were not statistically significant (OR = 1.3; p = 0.750).

Keywords: class attendance, examination performance, final outcome, logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Olubukayo-Opeyemi Oyetayo, Oscar Mendez-Lucio, Andreas Bender, Hans Kiefer

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The thermal melting curve of a protein provides information on its conformational stability and could provide cues on its aggregation behavior. Naturally-occurring osmolytes have been shown to improve the thermal stability of most proteins in a concentration-dependent manner. They are therefore commonly employed as additives in therapeutic protein purification and formulation. A number of intertwined and seemingly conflicting mechanisms have been put forward to explain the observed stabilizing effects, the most prominent being the preferential exclusion mechanism. We attempted to probe and summarize molecular mechanisms for thermal stabilization of a monoclonal antibody (mAb) by developing quantitative structure-activity relationships using a rationally-selected library of 120 osmolyte-like compounds in the polyhydric alcohols, amino acids and methylamines classes. Thermal stabilization potencies were experimentally determined by thermal shift assays based on differential scanning fluorimetry. The cross-validated QSAR model was developed by partial least squares regression using descriptors generated from Molecular Operating Environment software. Careful evaluation of the results with the use of variable importance in projection parameter (VIP) and regression coefficients guided the selection of the most relevant descriptors influencing mAb thermal stability. For the mAb studied and at pH 7, the thermal stabilization effects of tested compounds correlated positively with their fractional polar surface area and inversely with their fractional hydrophobic surface area. We cannot claim that the observed trends are universal for osmolyte-protein interactions because of protein-specific effects, however this approach should guide the quick selection of (de)stabilizing compounds for a protein from a chemical library. Further work with a large variety of proteins and at different pH values would help the derivation of a solid explanation as to the nature of favorable osmolyte-protein interactions for improved thermal stability. This approach may be beneficial in the design of novel protein stabilizers with optimal property values, especially when the influence of solution conditions like the pH and buffer species and the protein properties are factored in.

Keywords: thermal stability, monoclonal antibodies, quantitative structure-activity relationships, osmolytes

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Authors: Deyadeen Ali Alshibani

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In the literature, the multi-armed bandit problem as a statistical decision model of an agent trying to optimize his decisions while improving his information at the same time. There are several different algorithms models and their applications on this problem. In this paper, we evaluate the Regret-regression through comparing with Q-learning method. A simulation on determination of optimal treatment regime is presented in detail.

Keywords: optimal, bandit problem, optimization, dynamic programming

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

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Authors: Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Kovačević, Lidija Jevrić, Evgenija Djurendić, Jovana Ajduković

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There are several methods for determination of the lipophilicity of biologically active compounds, however chromatography has been shown as a very suitable method for this purpose. Chromatographic (C18-RP-HPLC) analysis of a series of 24 17-picolyl and 17-picolinylidene androstane derivatives was carried out. The obtained retention indices (logk, methanol (90%) / water (10%)) were correlated with calculated physicochemical and lipophilicity descriptors. The QSRR analysis was carried out applying principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares regression (PLS). The PCR and PLS model were selected on the basis of the highest variance and the lowest root mean square error of cross-validation. The obtained PCR and PLS model successfully correlate the calculated molecular descriptors with logk parameter indicating the significance of the lipophilicity of compounds in chromatographic process. On the basis of the obtained results it can be concluded that the obtained logk parameters of the analyzed androstane derivatives can be considered as their chromatographic lipophilicity. These results are the part of the project No. 114-451-347/2015-02, financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina and CMST COST Action CM1105.

Keywords: androstane derivatives, chromatography, molecular structure, principal component regression, partial least squares regression

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Ahmed Atwa, Ashraf Hafez, Mohamed Abdelhameed, Adel Nabeeh, Mohamed Dawaba, Tamer Helmy

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Introduction and Objective: Tumour staging and grading do not usually reflect the future behavior of Wilms' tumor (WT) regarding mortality. Therefore, in this study, P53, Ki67 and cyclin A immunohistochemistry were used in a trial to predict WT cancer-specific survival (CSS). Methods: In this nonconcurrent cohort study, patients' archived data, including age at presentation, gender, history, clinical examination and radiological investigations, were retrieved then the patients were reviewed at the outpatient clinic of a tertiary care center by history-taking, clinical examination and radiological investigations to detect the oncological outcome. Cases that received preoperative chemotherapy or died due to causes other than WT were excluded. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens obtained from the previously preserved blocks at the pathology laboratory were taken on positively charged slides for IHC with p53, Ki67 and cyclin A. All specimens were examined by an experienced histopathologist devoted to the urological practice and blinded to the patient's clinical findings. P53 and cyclin A staining were scored as 0 (no nuclear staining),1 (<10% nuclear staining), 2 (10-50% nuclear staining) and 3 (>50% nuclear staining). Ki67 proliferation index (PI) was graded as low, borderline and high. Results: Of the 75 cases, 40 (53.3%) were males and 35 (46.7%) were females, and the median age was 36 months (2-216). With a mean follow-up of 78.6±31 months, cancer-specific mortality (CSM) occurred in 15 (20%) and 11 (14.7%) patients, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curve was used for survival analysis, and groups were compared using the Log-rank test. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression were not used because only one variable (cyclin A) had shown statistical significance (P=.02), whereas the other significant factor (residual tumor) had few cases. Conclusions: Cyclin A IHC should be considered as a marker for the prediction of WT CSS. Prospective studies with a larger sample size are needed.

Keywords: wilms’ tumour, nephroblastoma, urology, survival

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Authors: Paolo Castaldo, Bruno Palazzo, Laura Lodato

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This study deals with the seizure effects of friction pendulum (FP) bearings on the seismic reliability of a 3D base-isolated nonlinear structural system, designed according to Italian seismic code (NTC08). The isolated system consists in a 3D reinforced concrete superstructure, a r.c. substructure and the FP devices, described by employing a velocity dependent model. The seismic input uncertainty is considered as a random variable relevant to the problem, by employing a set of natural seismic records selected in compliance with L’Aquila (Italy) seismic hazard as provided from NTC08. Several non-linear dynamic analyses considering the three components of each ground motion have been performed with the aim to evaluate the seismic reliability of the superstructure, substructure, and isolation level, also taking into account the seizure event of the isolation devices. Finally, a design solution aimed at increasing the seismic robustness of the base-isolated systems with FPS is analyzed.

Keywords: FP devices, seismic reliability, seismic robustness, seizure

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Authors: Davod Ahmadigheidari, Isabel Alvarez, Kate Sinclair, Marnie Davidson, Patrick Cortbaoui, Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez

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The burden of collecting water tends to disproportionately fall on women and girls in low-income countries. Specifically, women spend between one to eight hours per day fetching water for domestic use in Sub-Saharan Africa. While there has been research done on the global time burden for collecting water, it has been mainly focused on water quality parameters; leaving the relationship between water fetching and health outcomes understudied. There is little available evidence regarding the relationship between water fetching and maternal child care practices. The main objective of this study was to help fill the aforementioned gap in the literature. Data from two surveys in Ethiopia and Malawi conducted by CARE Canada in 2016-2017 were used. Descriptive statistics indicate that women were predominantly responsible for collecting water in both Ethiopia (87%) and Malawi (99%) respectively, with the majority spending more than 30 minutes per day on water collection. With regards to child care practices, in both countries, breastfeeding was relatively high (77% and 82%, respectively); and treatment for malnutrition was low (15% and 8%, respectively). However, the same consistency was not found for weighing; in Ethiopia only 16% took their children for weighting in contrast to 94% in Malawi. These three practices were summed to create one variable for regressions analyses. Unadjusted logistic regression findings showed that only in Ethiopia was time fetching water significantly associated with child care practices. Once adjusted for covariates, this relationship was no longer found to be significant. Adjusted logistic regressions also showed that the factors that did influence child care practices differed slightly between the two countries. In Ethiopia, a lack of access to community water supply (OR= 0.668; P=0.010), poor attitudes towards gender equality (OR= 0.608; P=0.001), no access to land and (OR=0.603; P=0.000), significantly decreased a women’s odd of using positive childcare practices. Notably, being young women between 15-24 years (OR=2.308; P=0.017), and 25-29 (OR=2.065; P=0.028) increased probability of using positive childcare practices. Whereas in Malawi, higher maternal age, low decision-making power, significantly decreased a women’s odd of using positive childcare practices. In conclusion, this study found that even though amount of time spent by women fetching water makes a difference for childcare practices, it is not significantly related to women’s child care practices when controlling the covariates. Importantly, women’s age contributes to child care practices in Ethiopia and Malawi.

Keywords: time fetching water, community water supply, women’s child care practices, Ethiopia, Malawi

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Authors: Danika Pieters

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Due to changing societal and economic demands, organizational change has become increasingly prevalent in work life. While a long time change research has focused on the effects of single discrete change events on different employee outcomes such as job satisfaction and organizational commitment, a nascent research stream has begun to look into the potential cumulative effects of change in the context of continuous intense reforms. This case study of a large Belgian public organization aims to add to this growing literature by examining how the frequency and diversity of past changes impact employees’ appraisals of a newly introduced change. Twelve hundred survey results were analyzed using standard ordinary least squares regression. Results showed a correlation between high past change frequency and diversity and a negative appraisal of the new change. Implications for practitioners and future research are discussed.

Keywords: change frequency, change diversity, organizational changes, change appraisal, change evaluation

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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The traditional bio-economic method for fisheries modeling uses some estimate of the growth parameters and the system carrying capacity from a biological model for the population dynamics (usually a logistic population growth model) which is then analyzed as a traditional production function. The stock dynamic is transformed into a revenue function and then compared with the extraction costs to estimate the maximum economic yield. In this paper, the logistic population growth model for the population is combined with a forecast of the abundance and location of the stock by using a generalized additive model approach. The paper focuses on the Chilean hake population. This method allows for the incorporation of climatic variables and the interaction with other marine species, which in turn will increase the reliability of the estimates and generate better extraction paths for different conservation objectives, such as the maximum biological yield or the maximum economic yield.

Keywords: bio-economic, fisheries, GAM, production

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Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan

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In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.

Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure

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Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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Authors: Ramazan Kadiev, Arkadi Ponossov

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Semidiscrete systems contain both continuous and discrete components. This means that the dynamics is mostly continuous, but at certain instants, it is exposed to abrupt influences. Such systems naturally appear in applications, for example, in biological and ecological models as well as in the control theory. Therefore, the study of semidiscrete systems has recently attracted the attention of many specialists. Stochastic effects are an important part of any realistic approach to modeling. For example, stochasticity arises in the population dynamics, demographic and ecological due to a change in time of factors external to the system affecting the survival of the population. In control theory, random coefficients can simulate inaccuracies in measurements. It will be shown in the presentation how to incorporate such effects into semidiscrete systems. Stability analysis is an essential part of modeling real-world problems. In the presentation, it will be explained how sufficient conditions for the moment stability of solutions in terms of the coefficients for linear semidiscrete stochastic equations can be derived using non-Lyapunov technique.

Keywords: abrupt changes, exponential stability, regularization, stochastic noises

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Authors: Raya Al Khayari, Rasha Al Jassim, Muna Al Balushi, Fatma Al Moqbali, Said El Hajjar

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This study utilizes linear regression analysis to investigate the correlation between user account passwords and the probability of civil ID exposure, offering statistical insights into civil ID security. The study employs multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to further investigate the elements that influence consumers’ views of civil ID security. This aims to increase awareness and improve preventive measures. The results obtained from the MLR analysis provide a thorough comprehension and can guide specific educational and awareness campaigns aimed at promoting improved security procedures. In summary, the study’s results offer significant insights for improving existing security measures and developing more efficient tactics to reduce risks related to civil ID security in Oman. By identifying key factors that impact consumers’ perceptions, organizations can tailor their strategies to address vulnerabilities effectively. Additionally, the findings can inform policymakers on potential regulatory changes to enhance civil ID security in the country.

Keywords: civil-id disclosure, awareness, linear regression, multiple regression

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Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Chuyu Huang, Itsuki Minemi, Kuanlin Chen, Yuki Hirose

Abstract:

It remains unclear how language speakers are able to perceive phonological contrasts that do not exist on their own. This experiment uses the vowel-length distinction in Japanese, which is phonologically contrastive and co-occurs with tonal change in some cases. For speakers whose first language does not distinguish vowel length, contrastive duration is usually misperceived, e.g., Mandarin speakers. Two alternative hypotheses for how Mandarin speakers would perceive a phonological contrast that does not exist in their language make different predictions. The stress parameter model does not have a clear prediction about the impact of tonal type. Mandarin speakers will likely be not able to perceive vowel length as well as Japanese native speakers do, but the performance might not correlate to tonal type because the prosody of their language is distinctive, which requires users to encode lexical prosody and notice subtle differences in word prosody. By contrast, cue-based phonetic models predict that Mandarin speakers may rely on pitch differences, a secondary cue, to perceive vowel length. Two groups of Mandarin speakers, including naive non-Japanese speakers and beginner learners, were recruited to participate in an AX discrimination task involving two Japanese sound stimuli that contain a phonologically contrastive environment. Participants were asked to indicate whether the two stimuli containing a vowel-length contrast (e.g., maapero vs. mapero) sound the same. The experiment was bifactorial. The first factor contrasted three syllabic positions (syllable position; initial/medial/final), as it would be likely to affect the perceptual difficulty, as seen in previous studies, and the second factor contrasted two pitch types (accent type): one with accentual change that could be distinguished with the lexical tones in Mandarin (the different condition), with the other group having no tonal distinction but only differing in vowel length (the same condition). The overall results showed that a significant main effect of accent type by applying a linear mixed-effects model (β = 1.48, SE = 0.35, p < 0.05), which implies that Mandarin speakers tend to more successfully recognize vowel-length differences when the long vowel counterpart takes on a tone that exists in Mandarin. The interaction between the accent type and the syllabic position is also significant (β = 2.30, SE = 0.91, p < 0.05), showing that vowel lengths in the different conditions are more difficult to recognize in the word-final case relative to the initial condition. The second statistical model, which compares naive speakers to beginners, was conducted with logistic regression to test the effects of the participant group. A significant difference was found between the two groups (β = 1.06, 95% CI = [0.36, 2.03], p < 0.05). This study shows that: (1) Mandarin speakers are likely to use pitch cues to perceive vowel length in a non-native language, which is consistent with the cue-based approaches; (2) an exposure effect was observed: the beginner group achieved a higher accuracy for long vowel perception, which implied the exposure effect despite the short period of language learning experience.

Keywords: cue-based perception, exposure effect, prosodic perception, vowel duration

Procedia PDF Downloads 220