Search results for: investment decision making

Authors: Ferdi Sönmez, Nihal Yorulmaz

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Decision making on the true planning of the public transportation systems to serve potential users is a must for metropolitan areas. To take attraction of travelers to projected modes of transport, adequately fair overall travel times should be provided. In this fashion, other benefits such as lower traffic congestion, road safety and lower noise and atmospheric pollution may be earned. The congestion which comes with increasing demand of public transportation is becoming a part of our lives and making residents’ life difficult. Hence, regulations should be done to reduce this congestion. To provide a constructive and balanced regulation in public transportation systems, right stations should be located in right places. In this study, it is aimed to design and implement a Decision Support System (DSS) Application to determine the optimal bus stop places for public transport in Istanbul which is one of the biggest and oldest cities in the world. Required information is gathered from IETT (Istanbul Electricity, Tram and Tunnel) Enterprises which manages all public transportation services in Istanbul Metropolitan Area. By using the most real-like values, cost assignments are made. The cost is calculated with the help of equations produced by bi-level optimization model. For this study, 300 buses, 300 drivers, 10 lines and 110 stops are used. The user cost of each station and the operator cost taken place in lines are calculated. Some components like cost, security and noise pollution are considered as significant factors affecting the solution of set covering problem which is mentioned for identifying and locating the minimum number of possible bus stops. Preliminary research and model development for this study refers to previously published article of the corresponding author. Model results are represented with the intent of decision support to the specialists on locating stops effectively.

Keywords: operator cost, bi-level optimization model, user cost, urban transportation

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Authors: Romain Ben Taleb, Aurélie Montarnal, Matthieu Lauras, Mathieu Dahan, Romain Miclo

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To be competitive and sustainable, any company has to maximize its value. However, unlike listed companies that can assess their values based on market shares, most Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) which are non-listed cannot have direct and live access to this critical information. Traditional accounting reports only give limited insights to SME decision-makers about the real impact of their day-to-day decisions on the company’s performance and value. Most of the time, an SME’s financial valuation is made one time a year as the associated process is time and resource-consuming, requiring several months and external expertise to be completed. To solve this issue, we propose in this paper a value-oriented metamodel that enables real-time and dynamic assessment of the SME’s value based on the large definition of their assets. These assets cover a wider scope of resources of the company and better account for immaterial assets. The proposal, which is illustrated in a case study, discusses the benefits of incorporating assets in the SME valuation.

Keywords: SME, metamodel, decision support system, financial valuation, assets

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Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

Abstract:

It is known that the most crucial influence of the psychological, social and emotional factors that affect any human behavior is to corrupt the rational decision making mechanism of the individuals and cause them to display irrational behaviors. In this regard, the social context of human beings influences the rationality of our decisions, and people tend to display different behaviors when they were alone compared to when they were surrounded by others. At this point, the interaction and interdependence of the behavioral finance and economics with the area of social psychology comes, where intentions and the behaviors of the individuals are being analyzed in the actual or implied presence of others comes into prominence. Within the context of this study, the prevalent theories of behavioral finance, which are The Prospect Theory, The Utility Theory Given Uncertainty and the Five Axioms of Choice under Uncertainty, Veblen’s Hidden Utility Theory, and the concept of ‘Overreaction’ has been examined and demonstrated; and the meaning, existence and validity of these theories together with the social context has been assessed. Finally, in this study the behavior of the individuals in financial crisis situations where the majority of the society is being affected from the same negative conditions at the same time has been analyzed, by taking into account how individual behavior will change according to the presence of the others.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

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Authors: Michael Mihalicz, Aziz Guergachi

Abstract:

Background: The science of modelling choice preferences has evolved over centuries into an interdisciplinary field contributing to several branches of Microeconomics and Mathematical Psychology. Early theories in Decision Science rested on the logic of rationality, but as it and related fields matured, descriptive theories emerged capable of explaining systematic violations of rationality through cognitive mechanisms underlying the thought processes that guide human behaviour. Cognitive limitations are not, however, solely responsible for systematic deviations from rationality and many are now exploring the effect of visceral factors as the more dominant drivers. The current study builds on the existing literature by exploring sleep deprivation, thermal comfort, stress, hunger, fear, anger and sadness as moderators to three distinct elements that define individual risk preference under Cumulative Prospect Theory. Methodology: This study is designed to compare the risk preference of participants experiencing an elevated affective or visceral state to those in a neutral state using nonparametric elicitation methods across three domains. Two experiments will be conducted simultaneously using different methodologies. The first will determine visceral states and risk preferences randomly over a two-week period by prompting participants to complete an online survey remotely. In each round of questions, participants will be asked to self-assess their current state using Visual Analogue Scales before answering a series of lottery-style elicitation questions. The second experiment will be conducted in a laboratory setting using psychological primes to induce a desired state. In this experiment, emotional states will be recorded using emotion analytics and used a basis for comparison between the two methods. Significance: The expected results include a series of measurable and systematic effects on the subjective interpretations of gamble attributes and evidence supporting the proposition that a portion of the variability in human choice preferences unaccounted for by cognitive limitations can be explained by interacting visceral states. Significant results will promote awareness about the subconscious effect that emotions and other drive states have on the way people process and interpret information, and can guide more effective decision making by informing decision-makers of the sources and consequences of irrational behaviour.

Keywords: decision making, emotions, prospect theory, visceral factors

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Authors: Michel Patiño-Sáenz, Martín Haissiner, Jorge Martínez-Cotrina, Daniel Pastor, Hernando Santamaría-García, Maria-Alejandra Tangarife, Agustin Ibáñez, Sandra Baez

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It has been shown that gruesome descriptions of harm can increase the punishment given to a transgressor. This biasing effect is mediated by negative emotions, which are elicited upon the presentation of gruesome descriptions. However, there is a lack of studies inquiring the influence of such descriptions on moral decision-making in people involved in the criminal justice system. Such populations are of special interest since they have experience dealing with gruesome evidence, but also formal education on how to assess evidence and gauge the appropriate punishment according to the law. Likewise, they are expected to be objective and rational when performing their duty, because their decisions can impact profoundly people`s lives. Considering these antecedents, the objective of this study was to explore the influence gruesome written descriptions on moral decision-making in this group of people. To that end, we recruited attorneys, judges and public prosecutors (Criminal justice group, CJ, n=30) whose field of specialty is criminal law. In addition, we included a control group of people who did not have a formal education in law (n=30), but who were paired in age and years of education with the CJ group. All participants completed an online, Spanish-adapted version of a moral decision-making task, which was previously reported in the literature and also standardized and validated in the Latin-American context. A series of text-based stories describing two characters, one inflicting harm on the other, were presented to participants. Transgressor's intentionality (accidental vs. intentional harm) and language (gruesome vs. plain) used to describe harm were manipulated employing a within-subjects and a between-subjects design, respectively. After reading each story, participants were asked to rate (a) the harmful action's moral adequacy, (b) the amount of punishment deserving the transgressor and (c) how damaging was his behavior. Results showed main effects of group, intentionality and type of language on all dependent measures. In both groups, intentional harmful actions were rated as significantly less morally adequate, were punished more severely and were deemed as more damaging. Moreover, control subjects deemed more damaging and punished more severely any type of action than the CJ group. In addition, there was an interaction between intentionality and group. People in the control group rated harmful actions as less morally adequate than the CJ group, but only when the action was accidental. Also, there was an interaction between intentionality and language on punishment ratings. Controls punished more when harm was described using gruesome language. However, that was not the case of people in the CJ group, who assigned the same amount of punishment in both conditions. In conclusion, participants with job experience in the criminal justice system or criminal law differ in the way they make moral decisions. Particularly, it seems that they are less sensitive to the biasing effect of gruesome evidence, which is probably explained by their formal education or their experience in dealing with such evidence. Nonetheless, more studies are needed to determine the impact this phenomenon has on the fulfillment of their duty.

Keywords: criminal justice system, emotions, gruesome descriptions, intentionality, moral decision-making

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Authors: Marina E. Konstantinidi

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It is now well-established that the fight against climate change and its consequences, which are a threat to mankind and to life on the planet Earth, requires that global temperature rise be kept under 1,5°C. It is also well-established that this requires humanity to put an end to the use of fossil fuels in the next decades, at the latest. However, investors in the fossil energy sector have brought or threatened to bring investment arbitration claims against States which put an end to their activity for the purpose of reaching their climate change policies’ objectives. Examples of such claims are provided by the cases of WMH v. Canada, Lone Pine v. Canada, Uniper v. Netherlands and RWE v. Netherlands. Irrespective of the outcome of the arbitration proceedings, the risk of being ordered to pay very substantial damages may have a ‘chilling effect’ on States, meaning that they may hesitate to implement the energy transition measures needed to fight climate change and its consequences. Although mitigation action is a relatively recent phenomenon, knowledge about the negative impact of fossil fuels has existed for a long time ago. In this paper, it is argued that structured documentation of evidence of knowledge about climate change may influence the adjudication of investment treaty claims and, consequently, affect the content of energy transition regulations that will be implemented. For example, as concerns investors, evidence that change in the regulatory framework towards environmental protection could have been predicted would refute the argument concerning legitimate expectations for legislative stability. By reference to relevant case law, it attempted to explore how pre-existing knowledge about climate change can be used in the adjudication of investor-State disputes and resulting from green energy transition policies.

Keywords: climate change, energy transition, international investment law, knowledge

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Authors: Jagna Mucha, Anna Kańciak

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The concept of good governance constitutes a wide perspective for academic discussion, because it provides a substantial theoretical background for settling many practical problems faced contemporarily by the EU. The basic assumptions of good governance have basically remained unchanged since the 90’s, when the concept was introduced by the World Bank, although the scholarly discussions reveal new facets of the said concept, when related to specific domains. The paper discusses the application of the specific elements of the concept of good governance in the field of the international investment law. Specifically, it seeks to demonstrate that the concept of good governance regulates the issue of international investments in that, among others, it requires the application of the alternative dispute resolution in order to make the investment law enforceable in the best possible way.

Keywords: dispute resolution, european union, investments, good governance

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Authors: Dona Primasari

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This study examines the antecedent variables of Government Financial Acccounting System (SAKD) implementation and its consequence. The antecedent variables are: decentralization of decision making, adaptation, and the manager support. The consequences are satisfaction and performance officer. This research represents the empirical test which used convenience sampling technics in data collection. The data were collected from 167 officers of local government in the Regional Coordinating Agency for Development of Cross County/City Region III Central Java Province. Data analysis used Structural Equation Model (SEM) with the AMOS 18.0 program. The result of hypothesis examination indicates that six raised hypothesis are accepted and two hypothesis are rejected.

Keywords: decentralization of decision making, adaptation officer, manager support, implementation of Government Accounting Financial System (SAKD), satisfaction and performance officer

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Authors: M. Lopez-Pereyra, I. Cisneros Alvarado, M. Del Socorro Lobato Alba

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This paper aims to discuss a conceptual, pedagogical approach that foster inclusive education and that create an awareness of the use of assistive technology in Mexico. Interdisciplinary understanding of disabilities and the use of assistive technology as a frame for an inclusive education have challenged the reality of the researchers’ participation in decision-making. Drawing upon a pedagogical inquiry process within an interdisciplinary academic project that involved the sciences, design, biotechnology, psychology and education fields, this paper provides a discussion on the challenges of assistive technology and inclusive education in interdisciplinary research on disabilities and technology project. This study is frame on an educational action research design where the team is interested in integrating, disability, technology, and inclusion, theory, and practice. Major findings include: (1) the concept of inclusive education as a strategy for interdisciplinary research; (2) inclusion as a pedagogical approach that challenges the creation of assistive technology from diverse academic fields; and, (3) inclusion as a frame, problem-focused, for decision-making. The findings suggest that inclusive pedagogical approaches provide a unique insight into interdisciplinary teams on disability and assistive technology in education.

Keywords: assistive technology, inclusive education, inclusive pedagogy, interdisciplinary research

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Authors: Ali Alahmari

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Saudi Arabia is facing increasing challenges in managing urban drainage, due to a combination of factors including climate change and urban expansion. Traditional drainage systems are unable to cope with demand, resulting in flooding and damage to property. Consequently, new ways of dealing with this issue need to be found and Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) appear to be a possible solution. This paper suggests that knowledge is a central issue in the adoption of Sustainable Urban Drainage approaches, as revealed through qualitative research with representative officials and professionals from key government departments and organisations in Riyadh. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with twenty-six participants. The interviews explored the challenges of adopting sustainable drainage approaches, and grounded theory analysis was used to examine the role of knowledge. However, a number of barriers have been identified with regard to the adoption of sustainable drainage approaches, such as the marginal status of sustainability in drainage decisions; lack of technical standards for other unconventional drainage solutions, and lack of consideration by decision makers of contributions from environmental and geographical studies. Due to centralisation, decision-making processes are complex and time-consuming, resulting in the discouragement of the adoption of new knowledge and approaches. Stakeholders with knowledge of sustainable approaches are often excluded from the hierarchical system of urban planning and drainage management. In addition, the multiplicity of actors involved in the implementation of the drainage system, as well as the different technical standards involved, often causes problems around coordination and cooperation. Although those with procedural and explicit knowledge have revealed a range of opportunities, such as a significant increase in government support for rainwater drainage in urban areas, they also identified a number of obstacles. These are mainly related to the lack of specialists in sustainable approaches, and a reluctance to involve external experts. Therefore, recommendations for overcoming some of these challenges are presented, which include enhancing the decision-making process through applying decentralisation and promoting awareness of sustainability through establishing educational and outreach programmes. This may serve to increase knowledge and facilitate the adoption of sustainable drainage approaches to promote sustainable development in the context of Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: climate change, decision-making processes, new knowledge and approaches, resistance to change, Saudi Arabia, SUDS, urban expansion

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Authors: Konstantinos Tolidis

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The mountains are amongst the most fragile environments in the world. The world’s mountain areas cover 24% of the Earth’s land surface and are home to 12% of the global population. A further 14% of the global population is estimated to live in the vicinity of their surrounding areas. As urbanization continues to increase in the world, the mountains are also key centers for recreation and tourism; their attraction is often heightened by their remarkably high levels of biodiversity. Due to the fact that the features in mountain areas vary spatially (development degree, human geography, socio-economic reality, relations of dependency and interaction with other areas-regions), the spatial planning on these areas consists of a crucial process for preserving the natural, cultural and human environment and consists of one of the major processes of an integrated spatial policy. This research has been focused on the spatial decision problem of land use allocation optimization which is an ordinary planning problem on the mountain areas. It is a matter of fact that such decisions must be made not only on what to do, how much to do, but also on where to do, adding a whole extra class of decision variables to the problem when combined with the consideration of spatial optimization. The utility of optimization as a normative tool for spatial problem is widely recognized. However, it is very difficult for planners to quantify the weights of the objectives especially when these are related to mountain areas. Furthermore, the land use allocation optimization problems at mountain areas must be addressed not only by taking into account the general development objectives but also the spatial objectives (e.g. compactness, compatibility and accessibility, etc). Therefore, the main research’s objective was to approach the land use allocation problem by utilizing a hybrid meta-heuristic optimization technique tailored to the mountain areas’ spatial characteristics. The results indicates that the proposed methodological approach is very promising and useful for both generating land use alternatives for further consideration in land use allocation decision-making and supporting spatial management plans at mountain areas.

Keywords: multiobjective land use allocation, mountain areas, spatial planning, spatial decision making, meta-heuristic methods

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Authors: Busayo Fashoto, Abdulhakeem Shaibu, Justice Agbadu, Samuel Aiyeoribe

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Data has gone from just rows and columns to being an infrastructure itself. The traditional medium of data infrastructure has been managed by individuals in different industries and saved on personal work tools; one of such is the laptop. This hinders data sharing and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9 for infrastructure sustainability across all countries and regions. However, there has been a constant demand for data across different agencies and ministries by investors and decision-makers. The rapid development and adoption of open-source technologies that promote the collection and processing of data in new ways and in ever-increasing volumes are creating new data infrastructure in sectors such as lands and health, among others. This paper examines the process of developing data infrastructure and, by extension, a data portal to provide baseline data for sustainable development and decision making in Nigeria. This paper employs the FAIR principle (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) of data management using open-source technology tools to develop data portals for public use. eHealth Africa, an organization that uses technology to drive public health interventions in Nigeria, developed a data portal which is a typical data infrastructure that serves as a repository for various datasets on administrative boundaries, points of interest, settlements, social infrastructure, amenities, and others. This portal makes it possible for users to have access to datasets of interest at any point in time at no cost. A skeletal infrastructure of this data portal encompasses the use of open-source technology such as Postgres database, GeoServer, GeoNetwork, and CKan. These tools made the infrastructure sustainable, thus promoting the achievement of SDG 9 (Industries, Innovation, and Infrastructure). As of 6th August 2021, a wider cross-section of 8192 users had been created, 2262 datasets had been downloaded, and 817 maps had been created from the platform. This paper shows the use of rapid development and adoption of technologies that facilitates data collection, processing, and publishing in new ways and in ever-increasing volumes. In addition, the paper is explicit on new data infrastructure in sectors such as health, social amenities, and agriculture. Furthermore, this paper reveals the importance of cross-sectional data infrastructures for planning and decision making, which in turn can form a central data repository for sustainable development across developing countries.

Keywords: data portal, data infrastructure, open source, sustainability

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Authors: Payman Tajalli, Steven Segal

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Applied ethics is an area of ethics which is looked upon most favorably as the most appropriate and useful for educational purposes; after all if ethics finds no application would any investment of time, effort and finance by the educational institutions be warranted? The current approaches to ethics in business and management often entail appealing to various types of moral theories and to this end almost every major philosophical approach has been enlisted. In this paper, we look at ethics through the philosophy of Emmanuel Levinas to argue that since ethics is ‘first philosophy’ it can neither be rule-based nor rule-governed, not something that can be worked out first and then applied to a given situation, hence the overwhelming emphasis on ‘applied ethics’ as a field of study in business and management education is unjustified. True ethics is not applied ethics. This assertion does not mean that teaching ethical theories and philosophies need to be abandoned rather it is the acceptance of the fact that an increase in cognitive awareness of such theories and ethical models and frameworks, or the mastering of techniques and procedures for ethical decision making, will not affect the desired ethical transformation in our students. Levinas himself argued for an ethics without a foundation, not one that required us to go ‘beyond good and evil’ as Nietzsche contended, rather an ethics which necessitates going ‘before good and evil'. Such an ethics does not provide us with a set of methods or techniques or a decision tree that enable us determine the rightness of an action and what we ought to do, rather it is about a way of being, an ethical posture or approach one takes in the inter-subjective relationship with the other that holds the promise of ethical conduct. Ethics in this Levinasian sense then is one of infinite and unconditional responsibility for the other person in relationship, an ethics which is not subject to negotiation, calculation or reciprocity, and as such it could neither be applied nor taught through conventional pedagogy with its focus on knowledge transfer from the teacher to student, and to this end Levinas offers a non-maieutic, non-conventional approach to pedagogy. The paper concludes that from a Levinasian perspective on ethics and education, we may need to guide our students to move away from the clear and objective professionalism of the management and applied ethics towards the murky individual spiritualism. For Levinas, this is ‘the Copernican revolution’ in ethics.

Keywords: business ethics, ethics education, Levinas, maieutic teaching, ethics without foundation

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Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

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Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should properly evaluate their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, Neural Networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable to offer an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

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Authors: Manpreet Singh, V. P. Agrawal, Gurmanjot Singh Bhatti

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From the last decades, there is a significant technological advancement in the field of robotics, and a number of modular self-reconfigurable robots were introduced that can help in space exploration, bucket to stuff, search, and rescue operation during earthquake, etc. As there are numbers of self-reconfigurable robots, choosing the optimum one is always a concern for robot user since there is an increase in available features, facilities, complexity, etc. The objective of this research work is to present a multiple attribute decision making based methodology for coding, evaluation, comparison ranking and selection of modular self-reconfigurable robots using a technique for order preferences by similarity to ideal solution approach. However, 86 attributes that affect the structure and performance are identified. A database for modular self-reconfigurable robot on the basis of different pertinent attribute is generated. This database is very useful for the user, for selecting a robot that suits their operational needs. Two visual methods namely linear graph and spider chart are proposed for ranking of modular self-reconfigurable robots. Using five robots (Atron, Smores, Polybot, M-Tran 3, Superbot), an example is illustrated, and raking of the robots is successfully done, which shows that Smores is the best robot for the operational need illustrated, and this methodology is found to be very effective and simple to use.

Keywords: self-reconfigurable robots, MADM, TOPSIS, morphogenesis, scalability

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should evaluate properly their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, neural networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable of offering an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

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Authors: Mark E. Lokanan, Liz Lee

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This paper aims to examine the role of accountants as gatekeepers in anti-money laundering compliance in real estate transactions. The paper seeks to answer questions on ways in which accountants are involved in real estate transactions and mandatory compliance with regulatory authorities in Canada. The data for the study came from semi-structured interviews with accountants, lawyers, and government officials. Preliminary results reveal that there is a conflict between accountants’ obligation to disclose and loyalty to their clients. Accountants often do not see why they are obligated to disclose their clients' information to government agencies. The importance of the client in terms of the amount of revenue contributed to the accounting firm also plays a significant role in accountants' reporting decision-making process. Although the involvement of accountants in real estate purchase and sale transactions is limited to lawyers or notaries, they are often involved in designing financing schemes, which may involve money laundering activities. The paper is of wider public policy interests to both accountants and regulators. It is hard not to see Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) Canada and government regulators using the findings to better understand the decision-making processes of accountants in their reporting practices to regulatory authorities.

Keywords: money laundering, real estate, disclosure, legislation, compliance

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Authors: Lars Andersen

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The development of design and engineering in large construction projects are characterized by an increased degree of flattening out of formal structures, extended use of parallel and integrated processes (‘Integrated Concurrent Engineering’) and an increased number of expert disciplines. The integration process is based on ongoing collaborations, dialogues, intercommunication and comments on each other’s work (iterations). This process based on reciprocal communication between actors and disciplines triggers value creation. However, communication between equals is not in itself sufficient to create effective decision making. The complexity of the process and time pressure contribute to an increased risk of a deficit of decisions and loss of process control. The paper refers to a study that aims at developing a resilient decision-making system that does not come in conflict with communication processes based on equality between the disciplines in the process. The study includes the construction of a hospital, following the phases design, engineering and physical building. The Research method is a combination of formative process research, process tracking and phenomenological analyses. The study tracked challenges and problems in the building process to the projection substrates (drawing and models) and further to the organization of the engineering and design phase. A comparative analysis of traditional and new ways of organizing the projecting made it possible to uncover an implicit material order or structure in the process. This uncovering implied a development of a material process perspective. According to this perspective the complexity of the process is rooted in material-functional differentiation. This differentiation presupposes a structuring material (the skeleton of the building) that coordinates the other types of material. Each expert discipline´s competence is related to one or a set of materials. The architect, consulting engineer construction etc. have their competencies related to structuring material, and inherent in this; coordination competence. When dialogues between the disciplines concerning the coordination between them do not result in agreement, the disciplines with responsibility for the structuring material decide the interface issues. Based on these premises, this paper develops a self-organized expert-driven interdisciplinary decision-making system.

Keywords: collaboration, complexity, design, engineering, materiality

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Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas

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Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.

Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns

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Authors: Lara Dutil-Fafard, Caroline Rhéaume, Patrick Archambault, Daniel Lafond, Neal W. Pollock

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Improving resources for medical autonomy of astronauts in prolonged space missions, such as a Mars mission, requires not only technology development, but also decision-making support systems. The Advanced Crew Medical System - Medical Condition Requirements study, funded by the Canadian Space Agency, aimed to create knowledge content and a scenario-based query capability to support medical autonomy of astronauts. The key objective of this study was to create a prototype tool for identifying medical infrastructure requirements in terms of medical knowledge, skills and materials. A multicriteria decision-making method was used to prioritize the highest risk medical events anticipated in a long-term space mission. Starting with those medical conditions, event sequence diagrams (ESDs) were created in the form of decision trees where the entry point is the diagnosis and the end points are the predicted outcomes (full recovery, partial recovery, or death/severe incapacitation). The ESD formalism was adapted to characterize and compare possible outcomes of medical conditions as a function of available medical knowledge, skills, and supplies in a given mission scenario. An extensive literature review was performed and summarized in a medical condition database. A PostgreSQL relational database was created to allow query-based evaluation of health outcome metrics with different medical infrastructure scenarios. Critical decision points, skill and medical supply requirements, and probable health outcomes were compared across chosen scenarios. The three medical conditions with the highest risk rank were acute coronary syndrome, sepsis, and stroke. Our efforts demonstrate the utility of this approach and provide insight into the effort required to develop appropriate content for the range of medical conditions that may arise.

Keywords: decision support system, event-sequence diagram, exploration mission, medical autonomy, scenario-based queries, space medicine

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Authors: Farid Habibi Tanha, Hawati Janor, Mojtaba Jahanbazi

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The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of asymmetric information on the composition of capital inflows. This study uses the stock market microstructure to capture the asymmetric information. Such an approach allows one to capture the level and extent of the asymmetric information from a firm’s perspective. This study focuses on the two-dimensional measure of the market microstructure in capturing asymmetric information. The composition of capital inflows is measured by running six models simultaneously. By employing the panel data technique, the main finding of this research shows an increase in the asymmetric information of the stock market, in any of the two dimensions of width and depth. This leads to the reduction of foreign investments in both forms of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and foreign direct investment (FDI), while the reduction in FPI is higher than that of the FDI. The significant effect of asymmetric information on capital inflows implicitly suggests for policymakers to control the changes of foreign capital inflows through transparency in the level of the market.

Keywords: capital flows composition, asymmetric information, stock market microstructure, foreign portfolio investment, foreign direct investment

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Authors: Anna Carolina De Paula Sermarini, Rodrigo Flora Calili

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Energy Efficiency (EE) needs investments, new technologies, greater awareness and management on the side of citizens and organizations, and more planning. However, this issue is usually remembered and discussed only in moments of energy crises, and opportunities are missed to take better advantage of the potential of EE in the various sectors of the economy. In addition, there is little concern about the subject among the less favored classes, especially in low-income communities. Accordingly, this article presents suggestions for public policies that aim to increase EE for low-income housing and communities based on international and national experiences. After reviewing the literature, eight policies were listed, and to evaluate them; a multicriteria decision model was developed using the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) methods, combined with fuzzy logic. Nine experts analyzed the policies according to 9 criteria: economic impact, social impact, environmental impact, previous experience, the difficulty of implementation, possibility/ease of monitoring and evaluating the policies, expected impact, political risks, and public governance and sustainability of the sector. The results found in order of preference are (i) Incentive program for equipment replacement; (ii) Community awareness program; (iii) EE Program with a greater focus on low income; (iv) Staggered and compulsory certification of social interest buildings; (v) Programs for the expansion of smart metering, energy monitoring and digitalization; (vi) Financing program for construction and retrofitting of houses with the emphasis on EE; (vii) Income tax deduction for investment in EE projects in low-income households made by companies; (viii) White certificates of energy for low-income. First, the policy of equipment substitution has been employed in Brazil and the world and has proven effective in promoting EE. For implementation, efforts are needed from the federal and state governments, which can encourage companies to reduce prices, and provide some type of aid for the purchase of such equipment. In second place is the community awareness program, promoting socio-educational actions on EE concepts and with energy conservation tips. This policy is simple to implement and has already been used by many distribution utilities in Brazil. It can be carried out through bids defined by the government in specific areas, being executed by third sector companies with public and private resources. Third on the list is the proposal to continue the Energy Efficiency Program (which obliges electric energy companies to allocate resources for research in the area) by suggesting the return of the mandatory investment of 60% of the resources in projects for low income. It is also relatively simple to implement, requiring efforts by the federal government to make it mandatory, and on the part of the distributors, compliance is needed. The success of the suggestions depends on changes in the established rules and efforts from the interested parties. For future work, we suggest the development of pilot projects in low-income communities in Brazil and the application of other multicriteria decision support methods to compare the results obtained in this study.

Keywords: energy efficiency, low-income community, public policy, multicriteria decision making

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Authors: Edward C. W. Chan, Benny C. F. Cheung

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In the knowledge economy, the financial indicator is not the unique instrument to gauge the performance of a company. The role of intellectual capital contributing to the company performance is increasing. To measure the company performance due to intellectual capital, the value-added intellectual capital (VAIC) model is adopted to measure the intellectual capital utilisation efficiency of the subject companies. The purpose of this study is to review the readiness of measuring intellectual capital for the Hong Kong listed companies in the property development and property investment industry by using VAIC model. This study covers the financial reports from the representative Hong Kong listed property development companies and property investment companies in the period 2014-2019. The findings from this study indicated the industry is ready for IC measurement employing VAIC framework but not yet ready for using the extended VAIC model.

Keywords: intellectual capital, intellectual capital measurement, property development, property investment, Skandia navigator, VAIC

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Authors: Pejman Hosseinioun, Hasan Shakeri, Ghasem Ghorbanirostam

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In recent years, we have seen an increasing importance of research and study on knowledge source, decision support systems, data mining and procedure of knowledge discovery in data bases and it is considered that each of these aspects affects the others. In this article, we have merged information source and knowledge source to suggest a knowledge based system within limits of management based on storing and restoring of knowledge to manage information and improve decision making and resources. In this article, we have used method of data mining and Apriori algorithm in procedure of knowledge discovery one of the problems of Apriori algorithm is that, a user should specify the minimum threshold for supporting the regularity. Imagine that a user wants to apply Apriori algorithm for a database with millions of transactions. Definitely, the user does not have necessary knowledge of all existing transactions in that database, and therefore cannot specify a suitable threshold. Our purpose in this article is to improve Apriori algorithm. To achieve our goal, we tried using fuzzy logic to put data in different clusters before applying the Apriori algorithm for existing data in the database and we also try to suggest the most suitable threshold to the user automatically.

Keywords: decision support system, data mining, knowledge discovery, data discovery, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Tania Viju, Bimal P., Naseer M. A.

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This study aims to develop a conceptual framework for the decision support system (DSS), that helps the decision-makers to dynamically choose appropriate safety measures for each identified accident blackspot. An accident blackspot is a segment of road where the frequency of accident occurrence is disproportionately greater than other sections on roadways. According to a report by the World Bank, India accounts for the highest, that is, eleven percent of the global death in road accidents with just one percent of the world’s vehicles. Hence in 2015, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways of India gave prime importance to the rectification of accident blackspots. To enhance road traffic safety and reduce the traffic accident rate, effectively identifying and rectifying accident blackspots is of great importance. This study helps to understand and evaluate the existing methods in accident blackspot identification and prediction that are used around the world and their application in Indian roadways. The decision support system, with the help of IoT, ICT and smart systems, acts as a management and planning tool for the government for employing efficient and cost-effective rectification strategies. In order to develop a decision criterion, several factors in terms of quantitative as well as qualitative data that influence the safety conditions of the road are analyzed. Factors include past accident severity data, occurrence time, light, weather and road conditions, visibility, driver conditions, junction type, land use, road markings and signs, road geometry, etc. The framework conceptualizes decision-making by classifying blackspot stretches based on factors like accident occurrence time, different climatic and road conditions and suggesting mitigation measures based on these identified factors. The decision support system will help the public administration dynamically manage and plan the necessary safety interventions required to enhance the safety of the road network.

Keywords: decision support system, dynamic management, road accident blackspots, road safety

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Authors: Vakhtang Charaia, Mariam Lashkhi

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Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a vital role in global business. It provides firms with new markets and advertising channels, cheaper production facilities, admission to new technology, products, skills and financing. FDI can provide a recipient country/company with a source of new technologies, capital, practice, products, management skills, and as such can be a powerful drive for economic development. It is one of the key elements of stable economic development in many countries, especially in developing ones. Therefore the size of FDI inflow is one of the most crustal factors for economic perfection in small economy countries (like, Georgia), while most of developed ones are net exporters of FDI. Since, FDI provides firms with new markets; admission to new technologies, products and management skills; marketing channels; cheaper production facilities, and financing opportunities. It plays a significant role in Georgian economic development. Increasing FDI inflows from all over the world to Georgia in last decade was achieved with the outstanding reforms managed by the Georgian government. However, such important phenomenon as world financial crisis and Georgian-Russian war put its consequence on the over amount of FDI inflow in Georgia in the last years. It is important to mention that the biggest investor region for Georgia is EU, which is interested in Georgia not only from the economic points of view but from political. The case studies from main EU investor countries show that Georgia has a big potential of investment in different areas, such as; financial sector, energy, construction, tourism industry, transport and communications. Moreover, signing of Association Agreement between Georgia and EU will further boost all the fields of economy in Georgia in both short and long terms. It will attract more investments from different countries and especially from EU. The last, but not least important issue is the calculation of annual FDI inflow to Georgia, which it is calculated differently by different organizations, based on different methodologies, but what is more important is that all of them show significant increase of FDI in last decade, which gives a positive signal to investors and underlines necessity of further improvement of investment climate in the same direction.

Keywords: foreign direct investment (FDI), Georgia, investment development path, investment climate

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Authors: E. U. Dampage, Ovindi D. Bandara, Vinushi S. Waraketiya, Samitha S. R. De Silva, Yasiru S. Gunarathne

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The knowledge of water inflow figures is paramount in decision making on the allocation for consumption for numerous purposes; irrigation, hydropower, domestic and industrial usage, and flood control. The understanding of how reservoir inflows are affected by different climatic and hydrological conditions is crucial to enable effective water management and downstream flood control. In this research, we propose a method using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to assist the aforesaid decision-making process. The Kotmale reservoir, which is the uppermost reservoir in the Mahaweli reservoir complex in Sri Lanka, was used as the test bed for this research. The ANN uses the runoff in the Kotmale reservoir catchment area and the effect of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) to make a forecast for seven days ahead. Three types of ANN are tested; Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and LSTM. The extensive field trials and validation endeavors found that the LSTM ANN provides superior performance in the aspects of accuracy and latency.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, CNN, inflow, long short-term memory, LSTM, multi-layer perceptron, MLP, neural network

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Authors: Raymond K. Jonkers

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The present study investigated approaches and techniques to enhance strategic management governance and decision making within the framework of a performance-based balanced scorecard. The review of best practices from strategic, program, process, and systems engineering management provided for a holistic approach toward effective outcome-based capability management. One technique, based on factorial experimental design methods, was used to develop an empirical model. This model predicted the degree of capability effectiveness and is dependent on controlled system input variables and their weightings. These variables represent business performance measures, captured within a strategic balanced scorecard. The weighting of these measures enhances the ability to quantify causal relationships within balanced scorecard strategy maps. The focus in this study was on the performance of tangible assets within the scorecard rather than the traditional approach of assessing performance of intangible assets such as knowledge and technology. Tangible assets are represented in this study as physical systems, which may be thought of as being aboard a ship or within a production facility. The measures assigned to these systems include project funding for upgrades against demand, system certifications achieved against those required, preventive maintenance to corrective maintenance ratios, and material support personnel capacity against that required for supporting respective systems. The resultant scorecard is viewed as complimentary to the traditional balanced scorecard for program and performance management. The benefits from these scorecards are realized through the quantified state of operational capabilities or outcomes. These capabilities are also weighted in terms of priority for each distinct system measure and aggregated and visualized in terms of overall state of capabilities achieved. This study proposes the use of interactive controls within the scorecard as a technique to enhance development of alternative solutions in decision making. These interactive controls include those for assigning capability priorities and for adjusting system performance measures, thus providing for what-if scenarios and options in strategic decision-making. In this holistic approach to capability management, several cross functional processes were highlighted as relevant amongst the different management disciplines. In terms of assessing an organization’s ability to adopt this approach, consideration was given to the P3M3 management maturity model.

Keywords: management, systems, performance, scorecard

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Authors: Haifeng Shi, Kun Song, Yili Zhao

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In China, with the extensive promotion of the ‘aging in place’ pension policy as the background, most of the elders will choose to remain in their current homes and communities, finding out of preference or necessity that they will need to remodel their homes to fit their changing needs. This generation elder born in the 1960s to 1970s almost live in the same form of housing-condominium built from 1982 to 2012. Based on the survey of existing multi-family housing, especially in Tianjin, it is found that the current ‘double two-thirds principles’ is becoming the threshold for modification to existing house, particularly in the project of elevators addition to existing condominium (built from 1982 to 2016 without elevators below 6 floors according to the previous building code). Firstly, this article concludes the local policies of elevator addition nationwide, most of which has determined the importance and necessity of the community-based self-organization principle in the operation of the elevator addition. Secondly, by comparing the three existing community management systems (owners' congress, property management system and community committee) in instances, find that the community-based ‘two-thirds’ principle is not conducive to implement for multi-owned property renovation in the community or common accessibility modification in the building. However, analysis the property and other community management related laws, pointing out the shortcomings of the existing community-based ‘two-thirds’ decision-making norms. The analyzation showed that the unit-based and ‘100% principle’ method is more capable of common accessibility in the condominium in China. Differing from existing laws, the unit-based principle will be effective for the process of decision-making and ‘100% principle’ will protect closely profit-related householders for condominium modification in the multi-owned area. These three aspects of the analysis suggest that the establishment of the unit-based self-organization mechanism is a preferred and inevitable method to solve the problem of elevators addition to the existing condominium in China.

Keywords: aging in place, condominium, modification, multi own

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Authors: Ryan Vincent Teodoro, Adrian Paul Virador, Jan Christopher Cardenas

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In the field of construction, managerial positions are completely dominated by males. The researchers conducted this study to see if there is a significant difference between the competencies of male and female project managers in the construction field. To see if there is a significant difference, they subdivided the competency of project managers into three components; decision making, organizing skills, and resiliency. The researchers conducted a five-point Likert scale survey of 28 project managers in the construction field, 18 of them are males and 10 are females. The researchers used Cronbach’s alpha to translate the raw scores of the respondents into competency scores. Then, the competency scores are analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U Test to see if there is a significant difference between the male’s and female’s competency scores. A p-value of 0.808 was calculated, which is greater than 0.05, which means that the null hypothesis is accepted. Therefore, the researchers concluded that there is no significant difference between the competencies of male and female project managers in terms of decision making, organizing skills, and resiliency in the construction field in the National Capital Region, Philippines.

Keywords: competency, resiliency, project managers, Mann-Whitney U test

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