Search results for: evidence%20synthesis
3146 Bridging the Gap and Widening the Divide
Authors: Lerato Dixon, Thorsten Chmura
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This paper explores whether ethnic identity in Zimbabwe leads to discriminatory behaviour and the degree to which a norm-based intervention can shift this discriminatory behaviour. Social Identity Theory suggests that group identity can lead to favouritism towards the in-group and discriminatory behaviour towards the out-group. Agents yield higher utility from maintaining positive self-esteem by confirming with group behaviour. This paper focuses on the two majority ethnic groups in Zimbabwe – the Ndebele and Shona. Racial identities are synonymous with the language spoken. Zimbabwe’s history highlights how identity formation took place. As following independence, political parties became recognised as either Ndebele or Shona-speaking. It is against this backdrop that this study investigates the degree to which norm-based nudge can alter behaviour. This paper uses experimental methods to analyse discriminatory behaviour between two naturally occurring ethnic groups in Zimbabwe. In addition, we investigate if social norm-based interventions can shift discriminatory behaviour to understand if the divide between these two identity groups can be further divided or healed. Participants are randomly assigned into three groups to receive information regarding a social norm. We compare the effect of a proscriptive social norm-based intervention, stating what shouldn't be done and prescriptive social norms as interventions, stating what should be done. Specifically, participants are either shown the socially appropriate (Heal) norm, the socially inappropriateness (Divide) norm regarding interethnic marriages or no norm-based intervention. Following the random assignment into intervention groups, participants take part in the Trust Game. We conjecture that discrimination will shift in accordance with the prevailing social norm. Instead, we find evidence of interethnic discriminatory behaviour. We also find that trust increases when interacting with Ndebele, Shona and Zimbabwean participants following the Heal intervention. However, if the participant is Shona, the Heal intervention decreases trust toward in-groups and Zimbabwean co-players. On the other hand, if the participant is Shona, the Divide treatment significantly increases trust toward Ndebele participants. In summary, we find evidence that norm-based interventions significantly change behaviour. However, the prescriptive norm-based intervention (Heal) decreases trust toward the in-group, out-group and national identity group if the participant is Shona – therefore having an adverse effect. In contrast, the proscriptive Divide treatment increases trust if the participant is Shona towards Ndebele co-players. We conclude that norm-based interventions have a ‘rebound’ effect by altering behaviour in the opposite direction.Keywords: discrimination, social identity, social norm-based intervention, zimbabwe
Procedia PDF Downloads 2393145 Phytochemical Screening, Proximate Analysis, Lethality Studies and Anti-Tumor Potential of Annona muricata L. (Soursop) Fruit Extract in Rattus novergicus
Authors: O. C. Abbah, O. Obidoa, J. Omale
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Prostate tumor is fast becoming a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in human male adults, with 50 percent of men aged 50 years and above having histological evidence of the benign tumor. The study was set out to undertake phytochemical screening and proximate analysis of the pulp of A. muricata fruit - soursop; to determine the acute toxicity of the fruit pulp extract and its effect on male albino Wistar rats with concurrent induction of experimental benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH). Eighteen rats (average weight of 100g) were used for the lethality studies and were orally administered graded doses of aqueous extracts of the fruit pulp up to 5000 mg/kg body weight. Twenty five rats weighing 150-200g were divided into five groups of five rats each for the tumor studies. The groups included four controls – Hormone control, HC, which took Testosterone, T; and Estradiol, E2 – only, in olive oil as vehicle; Vehicle control, VC; Soursop control, SC, which received the extract only; VS, Vehicle and Soursop – and the Test group, TG (500mg/kg b.w.). All rats were dosed orally. Tumor was induced with exogenous Testosterone propionate: Estradiol valerate at 300µg: 80µg/kg b.w. (respectively) in olive oil, administered subcutaneously in the inguinal region of the rats on alternate days for 21 days. Administration of the fruit pulp at graded doses up to 5000mg/kg resulted in no lethality even after 72 hours. Results from tumor studies revealed that the administration of the fruit extracts significantly (p < 0.05) reduced the relative prostate weight of the TG compared with the HC, with values of 006±0.001 and 0.010±0.003 respectively. Treatment with vehicle, soursop and vehicle with soursop caused no significant (p>0.05) change in prostate size, with their respective relative prostate weights being 0.002±0.001, 0.004±0.002 and 0.002±0.001 compared with TG. Also, treatment with A. muricata fruit extract significantly decreased (p < 0.05) serum prostate specific antigen, PSA, in TG compared with HC, with values 0.055±0.017 and 0.194±0.068 ng/ml respectively. Furthermore, A. muricata administration displayed Testosterone boosting, Estradiol lowering and consequently testosterone-estradiol ratio increasing potential at the end of the 21 days. The preventive property of soursop against experimental BPH was corroborated by histological evidence in this study. The study concludes that A. muricata fruit holds a great potential for benign prostate tumor prevention and, possibly, management.Keywords: annona muricata, benign prostate tumor, hormone, preventive potential, soursop
Procedia PDF Downloads 3013144 The Impact of Physical Activity for Recovering Cancer Patients
Authors: Martyn Queen, Diane Crone, Andrew Parker, Saul Bloxham
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Rationale: There is a growing body of evidence that supports the use of physical activity during and after cancer treatment. However, activity levels for patients remain low. As more cancer patients are treated successfully, and treatment costs continue to escalate, physical activity may be a promising adjunct to a person-centred healthcare approach to recovery. Aim: The aim was to further understand how physical activity may enhance the recovery process for a group of mixed-site cancer patients. Objectives: The research investigated longitudinal changes in physical activity and perceived the quality of life between two and six month’s post-exercise interventions. It also investigated support systems that enabled patients to sustain these perceived changes. Method: The respondent cohort comprised 14 mixed-site cancer patients aged 43-70 (11 women, 3 men), who participated in a two-phase physical activity intervention that took place at a university in the South West of England. Phase 1 consisted of an eight-week structured physical activity programme; Phase 2 consisted of four months of non-supervised physical activity. Semi-structured interviews took place three times over six months with each participant. Grounded theory informed the data collection and analysis which, in turn, facilitated theoretical development. Findings: Our findings propose three theories on the impact of physical activity for recovering cancer patients: 1) Knowledge gained through a structured exercise programme can enable recovering cancer patients to independently sustain physical activity to four-month follow-up. 2) Sustaining physical activity for six months promotes positive changes in the quality of life indicators of chronic fatigue, self-efficacy, the ability to self-manage and energy levels. 3) Peer support from patients facilitates adherence to a structured exercise programme and support from a spouse, or life partner facilitates independently sustained physical activity to four-month follow-up. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that qualitative research can provide an evidence base that could be used to support future care plans for cancer patients. Findings also demonstrate that a physical activity intervention can be effective at helping cancer patients recover from the side effects of their treatment, and recommends that physical activity should become an adjunct therapy alongside traditional cancer treatments.Keywords: physical activity, health, cancer recovery, quality of life, support systems, qualitative, grounded theory, person-centred healthcare
Procedia PDF Downloads 2823143 Improving Low English Oral Skills of 5 Second-Year English Major Students at Debark University
Authors: Belyihun Muchie
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This study investigates the low English oral communication skills of 5 second-year English major students at Debark University. It aims to identify the key factors contributing to their weaknesses and propose effective interventions to improve their spoken English proficiency. Mixed-methods research will be employed, utilizing observations, questionnaires, and semi-structured interviews to gather data from the participants. To clearly identify these factors, structured and informal observations will be employed; the former will be used to identify their fluency, pronunciation, vocabulary use, and grammar accuracy, and the later will be suited to observe the natural interactions and communication patterns of learners in the classroom setting. The questionnaires will assess their self-perceptions of their skills, perceived barriers to fluency, and preferred learning styles. Interviews will also delve deeper into their experiences and explore specific obstacles faced in oral communication. Data analysis will involve both quantitative and qualitative responses. The structured observation and questionnaire will be analyzed quantitatively, whereas the informal observation and interview transcripts will be analyzed thematically. Findings will be used to identify the major causes of low oral communication skills, such as limited vocabulary, grammatical errors, pronunciation difficulties, or lack of confidence. They are also helpful to develop targeted solutions addressing these causes, such as intensive pronunciation practice, conversation simulations, personalized feedback, or anxiety-reduction techniques. Finally, the findings will guide designing an intervention plan for implementation during the action research phase. The study's outcomes are expected to provide valuable insights into the challenges faced by English major students in developing oral communication skills, contribute to the development of evidence-based interventions for improving spoken English proficiency in similar contexts, and offer practical recommendations for English language instructors and curriculum developers to enhance student learning outcomes. By addressing the specific needs of these students and implementing tailored interventions, this research aims to bridge the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical speaking ability, equipping them with the confidence and skills to flourish in English communication settings.Keywords: oral communication skills, mixed-methods, evidence-based interventions, spoken English proficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 433142 The Relationship between the Skill Mix Model and Patient Mortality: A Systematic Review
Authors: Yi-Fung Lin, Shiow-Ching Shun, Wen-Yu Hu
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Background: A skill mix model is regarded as one of the most effective methods of reducing nursing shortages, as well as easing nursing staff workloads and labor costs. Although this model shows several benefits for the health workforce, the relationship between the optimal model of skill mix and the patient mortality rate remains to be discovered. Objectives: This review aimed to explore the relationship between the skill mix model and patient mortality rate in acute care hospitals. Data Sources: A systematic search of the PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases and researchers retrieved studies published between January 1986 and March 2022. Review methods: Two independent reviewers screened the titles and abstracts based on selection criteria, extracted the data, and performed critical appraisals using the STROBE checklist of each included study. The studies focused on adult patients in acute care hospitals, and the skill mix model and patient mortality rate were included in the analysis. Results: Six included studies were conducted in the USA, Canada, Italy, Taiwan, and European countries (Belgium, England, Finland, Ireland, Spain, and Switzerland), including patients in medical, surgical, and intensive care units. There were both nurses and nursing assistants in their skill mix team. This main finding is that three studies (324,592 participants) show evidence of fewer mortality rates associated with hospitals with a higher percentage of registered nurse staff (range percentage of registered nurse staff 36.1%-100%), but three articles (1,122,270 participants) did not find the same result (range of percentage of registered nurse staff 46%-96%). However, based on appraisal findings, those showing a significant association all meet good quality standards, but only one-third of their counterparts. Conclusions: In light of the limited amount and quality of published research in this review, it is prudent to treat the findings with caution. Although the evidence is not insufficient certainty to draw conclusions about the relationship between nurse staffing level and patients' mortality, this review lights the direction of relevant studies in the future. The limitation of this article is the variation in skill mix models among countries and institutions, making it impossible to do a meta-analysis to compare them further.Keywords: nurse staffing level, nursing assistants, mortality, skill mix
Procedia PDF Downloads 1043141 Factors Influencing Capital Structure: Evidence from the Oil and Gas Industry of Pakistan
Authors: Muhammad Tahir, Mushtaq Muhammad
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Capital structure is one of the key decisions taken by the financial managers. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing capital structure decision in Oil and Gas industry of Pakistan using secondary data from published annual reports of listed Oil and Gas Companies of Pakistan. This study covers the time-period from 2008-2014. Capital structure can be affected by profitability, firm size, growth opportunities, dividend payout, liquidity, business risk, and ownership structure. Panel data technique with Ordinary least square (OLS) regression model has been used to find the impact of set of explanatory variables on the capital structure using the Stata. OLS regression results suggest that dividend payout, firm size and government ownership have the most significant impact on financial leverage. Dividend payout and government ownership are found to have significant negative association with financial leverage however firm size indicated positive relationship with financial leverage. Other variables having significant link with financial leverage includes growth opportunities, liquidity and business risk. Results reveal significant positive association between growth opportunities and financial leverage whereas liquidity and business risk are negatively correlated with financial leverage. Profitability and managerial ownership exhibited insignificant relationship with financial leverage. This study contributes to existing Managerial Finance literature with certain managerial implications. Academically, this research study describes the factors affecting capital structure decision of Oil and Gas Companies in Pakistan and adds latest empirical evidence to existing financial literature in Pakistan. Researchers have studies capital structure in Pakistan in general and industry at specific, nevertheless still there is limited literature on this issue. This study will be an attempt to fill this gap in the academic literature. This study has practical implication on both firm level and individual investor/ lenders level. Results of this study can be useful for investors/ lenders in making investment and lending decisions. Further, results of this study can be useful for financial managers to frame optimal capital structure keeping in consideration the factors that can affect capital structure decision as revealed by this study. These results will help financial managers to decide whether to issue stock or issue debt for future investment projects.Keywords: capital structure, multicollinearity, ordinary least square (OLS), panel data
Procedia PDF Downloads 2863140 National Image in the Age of Mass Self-Communication: An Analysis of Internet Users' Perception of Portugal
Authors: L. Godinho, N. Teixeira
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Nowadays, massification of Internet access represents one of the major challenges to the traditional powers of the State, among which the power to control its external image. The virtual world has also sparked the interest of social sciences which consider it a new field of study, an immense open text where sense is expressed. In this paper, that immense text has been accessed to so as to understand the perception Internet users from all over the world have of Portugal. Ours is a quantitative and qualitative approach, as we have resorted to buzz, thematic and category analysis. The results confirm the predominance of sea stereotype in others' vision of the Portuguese people, and evidence that national image has adapted to network communication through processes of individuation and paganization.Keywords: national image, internet, self-communication, perception
Procedia PDF Downloads 2513139 Effects of Bleaching Procedures on Dentine Sensitivity
Authors: Suhayla Reda Al-Banai
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Problem Statement: Tooth whitening was used for over one hundred and fifty year. The question concerning the whiteness of teeth is a complex one since tooth whiteness will vary from individual to individual, dependent on age and culture, etc. Tooth whitening following treatment may be dependent on the type of whitening system used to whiten the teeth. There are a few side-effects to the process, and these include tooth sensitivity and gingival irritation. Some individuals may experience no pain or sensitivity following the procedure. Purpose: To systematically review the available published literature until 31st December 2021 to identify all relevant studies for inclusion and to determine whether there was any evidence demonstrating that the application of whitening procedures resulted in the tooth sensitivity. Aim: Systematically review the available published works of literature to identify all relevant studies for inclusion and to determine any evidence demonstrating that application of 10% & 15% carbamide peroxide in tooth whitening procedures resulted in tooth sensitivity. Material and Methods: Following a review of 70 relevant papers from searching both electronic databases (OVID MEDLINE and PUBMED) and hand searching of relevant written journals, 49 studies were identified, 42 papers were subsequently excluded, and 7 studies were finally accepted for inclusion. The extraction of data for inclusion was conducted by two reviewers. The main outcome measures were the methodology and assessment used by investigators to evaluate tooth sensitivity in tooth whitening studies. Results: The reported evaluation of tooth sensitivity during tooth whitening procedures was based on the subjective response of subjects rather than a recognized methodology for evaluating. One of the problems in evaluating was the lack of homogeneity in study design. Seven studies were included. The studies included essential features namely: randomized group, placebo controls, doubleblind and single-blind. Drop-out was obtained from two of included studies. Three of the included studies reported sensitivity at the baseline visit. Two of the included studies mentioned the exclusion criteria Conclusions: The results were inconclusive due to: Limited number of included studies, the study methodology, and evaluation of DS reported. Tooth whitening procedures adversely affect both hard and soft tissues in the oral cavity. Sideeffects are mild and transient in nature. Whitening solutions with greater than 10% carbamide peroxide causes more tooth sensitivity. Studies using nightguard vital bleaching with 10% carbamide peroxide reported two side effects tooth sensitivity and gingival irritation, although tooth sensitivity was more prevalent than gingival irritationKeywords: dentine, sensitivity, bleaching, carbamide peroxde
Procedia PDF Downloads 623138 Assessing the Competence of Oral Surgery Trainees: A Systematic Review
Authors: Chana Pavneet
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Background: In more recent years in dentistry, a greater emphasis has been placed on competency-based education (CBE) programmes. Undergraduate and postgraduate curriculums have been reformed to reflect these changes, and adopting a CBE approach has shown to be beneficial to trainees and places an emphasis on continuous lifelong learning. The literature is vast; however, very little work has been done specifically to the assessment of competence in dentistry and even less so in oral surgery. The majority of the literature tends to opinion pieces. Some small-scale studies have been undertaken in this area researching assessment tools which can be used to assess competence in oral surgery. However, there is a lack of general consensus on the preferable assessment methods. The aim of this review is to identify the assessment methods available and their usefulness. Methods: Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of systematic reviews) were searched. PRISMA guidelines were followed to identify relevant papers. Abstracts of studies were reviewed, and if they met the inclusion criteria, they were included in the review. Papers were reviewed against the critical appraisal skills programme (CASP) checklist and medical education research quality instrument (MERQSI) to assess their quality and identify any bias in a systematic manner. The validity and reliability of each assessment method or tool were assessed. Results: A number of assessment methods were identified, including self-assessment, peer assessment, and direct observation of skills by someone senior. Senior assessment tended to be the preferred method, followed by self-assessment and, finally, peer assessment. The level of training was shown to affect the preferred assessment method, with one study finding peer assessment more useful in postgraduate trainees as opposed to undergraduate trainees. Numerous tools for assessment were identified, including a checklist scale and a global rating scale. Both had their strengths and weaknesses, but the evidence was more favourable for global rating scales in terms of reliability, applicability to more clinical situations, and easier to use for examiners. Studies also looked into trainees’ opinions on assessment tools. Logbooks were not found to be significant in measuring the competence of trainees. Conclusion: There is limited literature exploring the methods and tools which assess the competence of oral surgery trainees. Current evidence shows that the most favourable assessment method and tool may differ depending on the stage of training. More research is required in this area to streamline assessment methods and tools.Keywords: competence, oral surgery, assessment, trainees, education
Procedia PDF Downloads 1213137 Improving the Utilization of Telfairia occidentalis Leaf Meal with Cellulase-Glucanase-Xylanase Combination and Selected Probiotic in Broiler Diets
Authors: Ayodeji Fasuyi
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Telfairia occidentalis is a leafy vegetable commonly grown in the tropics for nutritional benefits. The use of enzymes and probiotics is becoming prominent due to the ban on antibiotics as growth promoters in many parts of the world. It is conceived that with enzymes and probiotics additives, fibrous leafy vegetables can be incorporated into poultry feeds as protein source. However, certain antinutrients were also found in the leaves of Telfairia occidentalis. Four broiler starter and finisher diets were formulated for the two phases of the broiler experiments. A mixture of fiber degrading enzymes, Roxazyme G2 (combination of cellulase, glucanase and xylanase) and probiotics (Turbotox), a growth promoter, were used in broiler diets at 1:1. The Roxazyme G2/Turbotox mixtures were used in diets containing four varying levels of Telfairia occidentalis leaf meal (TOLM) at 0, 10, 20 and 30%. Diets 1 were standard broiler diets without TOLM and Roxazyme G2 and Turbotox additives. Diets 2, 3 and 4 had enzymes and probiotics additives. Certain mineral elements such as Ca, P, K, Na, Mg, Fe, Mn, Cu and Zn were found in notable quantities viz. 2.6 g/100 g, 1.2 g/100 g, 6.2 g/100 g, 5.1 g/100 g, 4.7 g/100 g, 5875 ppm, 182 ppm, 136 ppm and 1036 ppm, respectively. Phytin, phytin-P, oxalate, tannin and HCN were also found in ample quantities viz. 189.2 mg/100 g, 120.1 mg/100 g, 80.7 mg/100 g, 43.1 mg/100 g and 61.2 mg/100 g, respectively. The average weight gain was highest at 46.3 g/bird/day for birds on 10% TOLM diet but similar (P > 0.05) to 46.2 g/bird/day for birds on 20% TOLM. The feed conversion ratio (FCR) of 2.27 was the lowest and optimum for birds on 10% TOLM although similar (P > 0.05) to 2.29 obtained for birds on 20% TOLM. FCR of 2.61 was the highest at 2.61 for birds on 30% TOLM diet. The lowest FCR of 2.27 was obtained for birds on 10% TOLM diet although similar (P > 0.05) to 2.29 for birds on 20% TOLM diet. Most carcass characteristics and organ weights were similar (P > 0.05) for the experimental birds on the different diets except for kidney, gizzard and intestinal length. The values for kidney, gizzard and intestinal length were significantly higher (P < 0.05) for birds on the TOLM diets. The nitrogen retention had the highest value of 72.37 ± 0.10% for birds on 10% TOLM diet although similar (P > 0.05) to 71.54 ± 1.89 obtained for birds on the control diet without TOLM and enzymes/probiotics mixture. There was evidence of a better utilization of TOLM as a plant protein source. The carcass characteristics and organ weights all showed evidence of uniform tissue buildup and muscles development particularly in diets containing 10% of TOLM level. There was also better nitrogen utilization in birds on the 10% TOLM diet. Considering the cheap cost of TOLM, it is envisaged that its introduction into poultry feeds as a plant protein source will ultimately reduce the cost of poultry feeds.Keywords: Telfairia occidentalis leaf meal, enzymes, probiotics, additives
Procedia PDF Downloads 1253136 Starlink Satellite Collision Probability Simulation Based on Simplified Geometry Model
Authors: Toby Li, Julian Zhu
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In this paper, a model based on a simplified geometry is introduced to give a very conservative collision probability prediction for the Starlink satellite in its most densely clustered region. Under the model in this paper, the probability of collision for Starlink satellite where it clustered most densely is found to be 8.484 ∗ 10^−4. It is found that the predicted collision probability increased nonlinearly with the increased safety distance set. This simple model provides evidence that the continuous development of maneuver avoidance systems is necessary for the future of the orbital safety of satellites under the harsher Lower Earth Orbit environment.Keywords: Starlink, collision probability, debris, geometry model
Procedia PDF Downloads 723135 Better Knowledge and Understanding of the Behavior of Masonry Buildings in Earthquake
Authors: A. R. Mirzaee, M. Khajehpour
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Due to Simple Design, reasonable cost and easy implementation most people are reluctant to build buildings with masonry construction. Masonry Structures performance at earthquake are so limited. Of most earthquakes occurred in Iran and other countries, we can easily see that most of the damages are for masonry constructions and this is the evidence that we lack proper understanding of the performance of masonry buildings in earthquake. In this paper, according to field studies, conducted in past earthquakes. To evaluate the strengths and weaknesses points of the masonry constructions and also provide a solution to prevent such damage should be presented, and also program Examples of the correct bearing wall and tie-column design with the valid regulations (MSJC-08 (ASD)) will be explained.Keywords: Masonry constructions, performance at earthquake, MSJC-08 (ASD), bearing wall, tie-column
Procedia PDF Downloads 4273134 Application of Forensic Entomology to Estimate the Post Mortem Interval
Authors: Meriem Taleb, Ghania Tail, Fatma Zohra Kara, Brahim Djedouani, T. Moussa
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Forensic entomology has grown immensely as a discipline in the past thirty years. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the post mortem interval or PMI. Three days after the death, insect evidence is often the most accurate and sometimes the only method of determining elapsed time since death. This work presents the estimation of the PMI in an experiment to test the reliability of the accumulated degree days (ADD) method and the application of this method in a real case. The study was conducted at the Laboratory of Entomology at the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie, Algeria. The domestic rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus L. was selected as the animal model. On 08th July 2012, the animal was killed. Larvae were collected and raised to adulthood. Estimation of oviposition time was calculated by summing up average daily temperatures minus minimum development temperature (also specific to each species). When the sum is reached, it corresponds to the oviposition day. Weather data were obtained from the nearest meteorological station. After rearing was accomplished, three species emerged: Lucilia sericata, Chrysomya albiceps, and Sarcophaga africa. For Chrysomya albiceps species, a cumulation of 186°C is necessary. The emergence of adults occured on 22nd July 2012. A value of 193.4°C is reached on 9th August 2012. Lucilia sericata species require a cumulation of 207°C. The emergence of adults occurred on 23rd, July 2012. A value of 211.35°C is reached on 9th August 2012. We should also consider that oviposition may occur more than 12 hours after death. Thus, the obtained PMI is in agreement with the actual time of death. We illustrate the use of this method during the investigation of a case of a decaying human body found on 03rd March 2015 in Bechar, South West of Algerian desert. Maggots were collected and sent to the Laboratory of Entomology. Lucilia sericata adults were identified on 24th March 2015 after emergence. A sum of 211.6°C was reached on 1st March 2015 which corresponds to the estimated day of oviposition. Therefore, the estimated date of death is 1st March 2015 ± 24 hours. The estimated PMI by accumulated degree days (ADD) method seems to be very precise. Entomological evidence should always be used in homicide investigations when the time of death cannot be determined by other methods.Keywords: forensic entomology, accumulated degree days, postmortem interval, diptera, Algeria
Procedia PDF Downloads 2883133 A Model for Analysing Argumentative Structures and Online Deliberation in User-Generated Comments to the Website of a South African Newspaper
Authors: Marthinus Conradie
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The conversational dynamics of democratically orientated deliberation continue to stimulate critical scholarship for its potential to bolster robust engagement between different sections of pluralist societies. Several axes of deliberation that have attracted academic attention include face-to-face vs. online interaction, and citizen-to-citizen communication vs. engagement between citizens and political elites. In all these areas, numerous researchers have explored deliberative procedures aimed at achieving instrumental goals such a securing consensus on policy issues, against procedures that prioritise expressive outcomes such as broadening the range of argumentative repertoires that discursively construct and mediate specific political issues. The study that informs this paper, works in the latter stream. Drawing its data from the reader-comments section of a South African broadsheet newspaper, the study investigates online, citizen-to-citizen deliberation by analysing the discursive practices through which competing understandings of social problems are articulated and contested. To advance this agenda, the paper deals specifically with user-generated comments posted in response to news stories on questions of race and racism in South Africa. The analysis works to discern and interpret the various sets of discourse practices that shape how citizens deliberate contentious political issues, especially racism. Since the website in question is designed to encourage the critical comparison of divergent interpretations of news events, without feeding directly into national policymaking, the study adopts an analytic framework that traces how citizens articulate arguments, rather than the instrumental effects that citizen deliberations might exert on policy. The paper starts from the argument that such expressive interactions are particularly crucial to current trends in South African politics, given that the precise nature of race and racism remain contested and uncertain. Centred on a sample of 2358 conversational moves in 814 posts to 18 news stories emanating from issues of race and racism, the analysis proceeds in a two-step fashion. The first stage conducts a qualitative content analysis that offers insights into the levels of reciprocity among commenters (do readers engage with each other or simply post isolated opinions?), as well as the structures of argumentation (do readers support opinions by citing evidence?). The second stage involves a more fine-grained discourse analysis, based on a theorisation of argumentation that delineates it into three components: opinions/conclusions, evidence/data to support opinions/conclusions and warrants that explicate precisely how evidence/data buttress opinions/conclusions. By tracing the manifestation and frequency of specific argumentative practices, this study contributes to the archive of research currently aggregating around the practices that characterise South Africans’ engagement with provocative political questions, especially racism and racial inequity. Additionally, the study also contributes to recent scholarship on the affordances of Web 2.0 software by eschewing a simplistic bifurcation between cyber-optimist vs. pessimism, in favour of a more nuanced and context-specific analysis of the patterns that structure online deliberation.Keywords: online deliberation, discourse analysis, qualitative content analysis, racism
Procedia PDF Downloads 1673132 Challenging Weak Central Coherence: An Exploration of Neurological Evidence from Visual Processing and Linguistic Studies in Autism Spectrum Disorder
Authors: Jessica Scher Lisa, Eric Shyman
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Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neuro-developmental disorder that is characterized by persistent deficits in social communication and social interaction (i.e. deficits in social-emotional reciprocity, nonverbal communicative behaviors, and establishing/maintaining social relationships), as well as by the presence of repetitive behaviors and perseverative areas of interest (i.e. stereotyped or receptive motor movements, use of objects, or speech, rigidity, restricted interests, and hypo or hyperactivity to sensory input or unusual interest in sensory aspects of the environment). Additionally, diagnoses of ASD require the presentation of symptoms in the early developmental period, marked impairments in adaptive functioning, and a lack of explanation by general intellectual impairment or global developmental delay (although these conditions may be co-occurring). Over the past several decades, many theories have been developed in an effort to explain the root cause of ASD in terms of atypical central cognitive processes. The field of neuroscience is increasingly finding structural and functional differences between autistic and neurotypical individuals using neuro-imaging technology. One main area this research has focused upon is in visuospatial processing, with specific attention to the notion of ‘weak central coherence’ (WCC). This paper offers an analysis of findings from selected studies in order to explore research that challenges the ‘deficit’ characterization of a weak central coherence theory as opposed to a ‘superiority’ characterization of strong local coherence. The weak central coherence theory has long been both supported and refuted in the ASD literature and has most recently been increasingly challenged by advances in neuroscience. The selected studies lend evidence to the notion of amplified localized perception rather than deficient global perception. In other words, WCC may represent superiority in ‘local processing’ rather than a deficit in global processing. Additionally, the right hemisphere and the specific area of the extrastriate appear to be key in both the visual and lexicosemantic process. Overactivity in the striate region seems to suggest inaccuracy in semantic language, which lends itself to support for the link between the striate region and the atypical organization of the lexicosemantic system in ASD.Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, neurology, visual processing, weak coherence
Procedia PDF Downloads 1173131 PCR Based DNA Analysis in Detecting P53 Mutation in Human Breast Cancer (MDA-468)
Authors: Debbarma Asis, Guha Chandan
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Tumor Protein-53 (P53) is one of the tumor suppressor proteins. P53 regulates the cell cycle that conserves stability by preventing genome mutation. It is named so as it runs as 53-kilodalton (kDa) protein on Polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis although the actual mass is 43.7 kDa. Experimental evidence has indicated that P53 cancer mutants loses tumor suppression activity and subsequently gain oncogenic activities to promote tumourigenesis. Tumor-specific DNA has recently been detected in the plasma of breast cancer patients. Detection of tumor-specific genetic materials in cancer patients may provide a unique and valuable tumor marker for diagnosis and prognosis. Commercially available MDA-468 breast cancer cell line was used for the proposed study.Keywords: tumor protein (P53), cancer mutants, MDA-468, tumor suppressor gene
Procedia PDF Downloads 4713130 Different Data-Driven Bivariate Statistical Approaches to Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (Uzundere, Erzurum, Turkey)
Authors: Azimollah Aleshzadeh, Enver Vural Yavuz
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The main goal of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps using different data-driven bivariate statistical approaches; namely, entropy weight method (EWM), evidence belief function (EBF), and information content model (ICM), at Uzundere county, Erzurum province, in the north-eastern part of Turkey. Past landslide occurrences were identified and mapped from an interpretation of high-resolution satellite images, and earlier reports as well as by carrying out field surveys. In total, 42 landslide incidence polygons were mapped using ArcGIS 10.4.1 software and randomly split into a construction dataset 70 % (30 landslide incidences) for building the EWM, EBF, and ICM models and the remaining 30 % (12 landslides incidences) were used for verification purposes. Twelve layers of landslide-predisposing parameters were prepared, including total surface radiation, maximum relief, soil groups, standard curvature, distance to stream/river sites, distance to the road network, surface roughness, land use pattern, engineering geological rock group, topographical elevation, the orientation of slope, and terrain slope gradient. The relationships between the landslide-predisposing parameters and the landslide inventory map were determined using different statistical models (EWM, EBF, and ICM). The model results were validated with landslide incidences, which were not used during the model construction. In addition, receiver operating characteristic curves were applied, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined for the different susceptibility maps using the success (construction data) and prediction (verification data) rate curves. The results revealed that the AUC for success rates are 0.7055, 0.7221, and 0.7368, while the prediction rates are 0.6811, 0.6997, and 0.7105 for EWM, EBF, and ICM models, respectively. Consequently, landslide susceptibility maps were classified into five susceptibility classes, including very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Additionally, the portion of construction and verification landslides incidences in high and very high landslide susceptibility classes in each map was determined. The results showed that the EWM, EBF, and ICM models produced satisfactory accuracy. The obtained landslide susceptibility maps may be useful for future natural hazard mitigation studies and planning purposes for environmental protection.Keywords: entropy weight method, evidence belief function, information content model, landslide susceptibility mapping
Procedia PDF Downloads 1273129 Activity-Based Costing in the Hospitality Industry: A Case Study in a Hotel
Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Mohammad Ara
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The purpose of this study is to provide some empirical evidence about implementing Activity-Based Costing (ABC) in the hospitality industry in Iran. For this purpose, we consider the Tabriz International Hotel as our sample hotel and then gather the relevant data from its cost accounting system in 2012. Then, we use ABC as our costing method and compare the cost of each service unit with that cost which had been extracted for the traditional costing method. The results show a different cost per unit for two methods. Also, because of its more precise and detailed provided information, an ABC system facilitates the decision-making process for managers on decisions related to profitability analysis, budgeting, pricing, and so on.Keywords: Activity-Based Costing (ABC), activity, cost driver, hospitality industry
Procedia PDF Downloads 2893128 The Quality of Accounting Information of Private Companies in the Czech Republic
Authors: Kateřina Struhařová
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The paper gives the evidence of quality of accounting information of Czech private companies. In general the private companies in the Czech Republic do not see the benefits of providing accounting information of high quality. Based on the research of financial statements of entrepreneurs and companies in Zlin region it was confirmed that the quality of accounting information differs among the private entities and that the major impact on the accounting information quality has the fact if the financial statements are audited as well as the size of the entity. Also the foreign shareholders and lenders have some impact on the accounting information quality.Keywords: accounting information quality, financial statements, Czech Republic, private companies
Procedia PDF Downloads 2923127 Effects of Global Validity of Predictive Cues upon L2 Discourse Comprehension: Evidence from Self-paced Reading
Authors: Binger Lu
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It remains unclear whether second language (L2) speakers could use discourse context cues to predict upcoming information as native speakers do during online comprehension. Some researchers propose that L2 learners may have a reduced ability to generate predictions during discourse processing. At the same time, there is evidence that discourse-level cues are weighed more heavily in L2 processing than in L1. Previous studies showed that L1 prediction is sensitive to the global validity of predictive cues. The current study aims to explore whether and to what extent L2 learners can dynamically and strategically adjust their prediction in accord with the global validity of predictive cues in L2 discourse comprehension as native speakers do. In a self-paced reading experiment, Chinese native speakers (N=128), C-E bilinguals (N=128), and English native speakers (N=128) read high-predictable (e.g., Jimmy felt thirsty after running. He wanted to get some water from the refrigerator.) and low-predictable (e.g., Jimmy felt sick this morning. He wanted to get some water from the refrigerator.) discourses in two-sentence frames. The global validity of predictive cues was manipulated by varying the ratio of predictable (e.g., Bill stood at the door. He opened it with the key.) and unpredictable fillers (e.g., Bill stood at the door. He opened it with the card.), such that across conditions, the predictability of the final word of the fillers ranged from 100% to 0%. The dependent variable was reading time on the critical region (the target word and the following word), analyzed with linear mixed-effects models in R. C-E bilinguals showed reliable prediction across all validity conditions (β = -35.6 ms, SE = 7.74, t = -4.601, p< .001), and Chinese native speakers showed significant effect (β = -93.5 ms, SE = 7.82, t = -11.956, p< .001) in two of the four validity conditions (namely, the High-validity and MedLow conditions, where fillers ended with predictable words in 100% and 25% cases respectively), whereas English native speakers didn’t predict at all (β = -2.78 ms, SE = 7.60, t = -.365, p = .715). There was neither main effect (χ^²(3) = .256, p = .968) nor interaction (Predictability: Background: Validity, χ^²(3) = 1.229, p = .746; Predictability: Validity, χ^²(3) = 2.520, p = .472; Background: Validity, χ^²(3) = 1.281, p = .734) of Validity with speaker groups. The results suggest that prediction occurs in L2 discourse processing but to a much less extent in L1, witha significant effect in some conditions of L1 Chinese and anull effect in L1 English processing, consistent with the view that L2 speakers are more sensitive to discourse cues compared with L1 speakers. Additionally, the pattern of L1 and L2 predictive processing was not affected by the global validity of predictive cues. C-E bilinguals’ predictive processing could be partly transferred from their L1, as prior research showed that discourse information played a more significant role in L1 Chinese processing.Keywords: bilingualism, discourse processing, global validity, prediction, self-paced reading
Procedia PDF Downloads 1293126 Modelling Structural Breaks in Stock Price Time Series Using Stochastic Differential Equations
Authors: Daniil Karzanov
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This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations
Procedia PDF Downloads 1943125 Development of a Pain Detector Using Microwave Radiometry Method
Authors: Nanditha Rajamani, Anirudhaa R. Rao, Divya Sriram
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One of the greatest difficulties in treating patients with pain is the highly subjective nature of pain sensation. The measurement of pain intensity is primarily dependent on the patient’s report, often with little physical evidence to provide objective corroboration. This is also complicated by the fact that there are only few and expensive existing technologies (Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging-fMRI). The need is thus clear and urgent for a reliable, non-invasive, non-painful, objective, readily adoptable, and coefficient diagnostic platform that provides additional diagnostic information to supplement its current regime with more information to assist doctors in diagnosing these patients. Thus, our idea of developing a pain detector was conceived to take a step further the detection and diagnosis of chronic and acute pain.Keywords: pain sensor, microwave radiometery, pain sensation, fMRI
Procedia PDF Downloads 4453124 The Impacts of Natural Resources-Funded Infrastructure Investment in Africa: Evidence from Guinea-Bissau
Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia
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This study aims to analyze the economic impacts of infrastructure investment in Africa, focusing on the Guinea-Bissau economy. Through a dynamic CGE model, we find that the natural resource revenues (or aid)-funded infrastructure investments generate externalities that increase factor returns. The private investment improvements propagate externalities effects on GDP and job opportunities outcomes. Household income and consumption were positively impacted, though the poorer benefited the most. The income inequality has reduced. However, funding by the mix of debt and direct taxes produces opposite effects. We suggest a potential pro-poor growth agenda in Africa.Keywords: infrastructure investment, poverty alleviation, CGE modeling, African economies, applied economics
Procedia PDF Downloads 1293123 Cartographic Depiction and Visualization of Wetlands Changes in the North-Western States of India
Authors: Bansal Ashwani
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Cartographic depiction and visualization of wetland changes is an important tool to map spatial-temporal information about the wetland dynamics effectively and to comprehend the response of these water bodies in maintaining the groundwater and surrounding ecosystem. This is true for the states of North Western India, i.e., J&K, Himachal, Punjab, and Haryana that are bestowed upon with several natural wetlands in the flood plains or on the courses of its rivers. Thus, the present study documents, analyses and reconstructs the lost wetlands, which existed in the flood plains of the major river basins of these states, i.e., Chenab, Jhelum, Satluj, Beas, Ravi, and Ghagar, in the beginning of the 20th century. To achieve the objective, the study has used multi-temporal datasets since the 1960s using high to medium resolution satellite datasets, e.g., Corona (1960s/70s), Landsat (1990s-2017) and Sentinel (2017). The Sentinel (2017) satellite image has been used for making the wetland inventory owing to its comparatively higher spatial resolution with multi-spectral bands. In addition, historical records, repeated photographs, historical maps, field observations including geomorphological evidence were also used. The water index techniques, i.e., band rationing, normalized difference water index (NDWI), modified NDWI (MNDWI) have been compared and used to map the wetlands. The wetland types found in the north-western states have been categorized under 19 classes suggested by Space Application Centre, India. These enable the researcher to provide with the wetlands inventory and a series of cartographic representation that includes overlaying multiple temporal wetlands extent vectors. A preliminary result shows the general state of wetland shrinkage since the 1960s with varying area shrinkage rate from one wetland to another. In addition, it is observed that majority of wetlands have not been documented so far and even do not have names. Moreover, the purpose is to emphasize their elimination in addition to establishing a baseline dataset that can be a tool for wetland planning and management. Finally, the applicability of cartographic depiction and visualization, historical map sources, repeated photographs and remote sensing data for reconstruction of long term wetlands fluctuations, especially in the northern part of India, will be addressed.Keywords: cartographic depiction and visualization, wetland changes, NDWI/MDWI, geomorphological evidence and remote sensing
Procedia PDF Downloads 2533122 People Participation as Social Capital Form for Realizing Sustainable Ecotourism
Authors: I. Putu Eka N. Kencana, I. Wayan Mertha
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A variety of research’s evidence suggests that community involvement is one of the vital elements in the development of sustainable tourism. As an entity of the tourism system, local communities are considered have better understanding of their region as well as influenced positively or negatively by the tourism activities in the region. This study elaborates role of community involvement in the development of ecotourism in Kintamani Bali from two perspectives of view, namely participation in the process of initiatives development and participation in the economic benefits of tourism. As one element of social capital form, community participation on the development and management of ecotourism in Kintamani, could be expected maintain its sustainability.Keywords: community involvement, ecotourism, participation, social capital
Procedia PDF Downloads 5093121 Influence of Cucurbitacin-Containing Phytonematicides on Nematode Biocontrol Agent: Trichoderma harzianum
Authors: Jacqueline T. Madaure, Phatu W. Mashela
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Cucurbitacin-containing phytonematicides consistently suppress root-knot (Meloidogyne species) nematode population densities. However, the impact of these products on nematode biocontrol agents is not documented. The objective of this study was to determine the influence of Nemarioc-AL and Nemafric-BL phytonematicides on growth of Trichoderma harzianum under in vitro conditions. The two phytonematicides were separately prepared to concentrations of 3% and used in poison plate assays. After exposure at different times from 0 to 72 h, there was 100% mycelial growth of T. harzianum. In conclusion, at the recommended concentrations of phytonematicides used in managing nematode population densities, there was no evidence of suppressive effects on growth of T. harzianum by the two phytonematicides.Keywords: botanicals, crude extracts, cucumis africanus, cucumis myriocarpus, cucurbitacin a, cucurbitacin b, ethnomedicinal plants
Procedia PDF Downloads 2063120 The Use of Electronic Shelf Labels in the Retail Food Sector
Authors: Brent McKenzie, Victoria Taylor
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The use of QR (Quick Response Codes) codes for customer scanning with mobile phones is a rapidly growing trend. The QR code can provide the consumer with product information, user guides, product use, competitive pricing, etc. One sector for QR use has been in retail, through the use of Electronic Shelf Labeling (henceforth, ESL). In Europe, the use of ESL for pricing has been in practice for a number of years but continues to lag in acceptance in North America. Stated concerns include costs as a key constraint, but there is also evidence that consumer acceptance represents a limitation as well. The purpose of this study is to present the findings of a consumer based study to gage the impact on their use in the retail food sector.Keywords: electronic price labels, consumer behaviour, grocery shopping, mixed methods research
Procedia PDF Downloads 3273119 Home-Country’s Competitive Assets of the Emerging Countries' Multinational Enterprises (EMNEs)
Authors: Philippe Gugler
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The aim of this study is to investigate how home country patterns may influence the competitiveness of EMNEs in international markets and more specifically their ability to invest abroad. The study examines the dynamic relationship between home country specific advantage and firms’ competitiveness. Are EMNEs still driven by strong country specific advantages or are EMNEs increasingly relying on their own firm specific competitiveness? EMNEs are not commonly recognized as a ‘homogeneous group’. Therefore, the approaches to these questions need to be specific while still attempting to extract some common evidence. The aim of the study is to elaborate a framework to investigate this issue in a dynamic context of international business’s strategies. The study focuses on two major research questions. The first one relates to the role of the home-base context in the internationalization process of EMNEs and more specifically the home-base assets’ influence on EMNEs competitiveness. Another question is to investigate the interactions among home-base context, recipient country context and EMNEs competitiveness. The evolution of EMNEs’ competitiveness is shaped by the evolution of the home country’s business environment. The nature of the home-based components in EMNEs’ specific advantages has changed over time due to the increased integration of emerging countries in the world market and the inherent changes related to their institutional, structural and regulatory patterns. The home country offers not only inherited assets but also a productive business environment, allowing firms to innovate, be more productive, create unique value for customers and finally, to face international competition successfully. The more sophisticated the home business environment is, the more opportunities there are for firms to developed exclusive and unique competitive assets. The international expansion of EMNEs is a fascinating but challenging issue. Among the numerous questions raised by the involvement of EMNEs in international competition is the evolving role of the home market. The purpose of this study is to examine some of the theoretical ideas and empirical evidence to allow us to deepen our understanding of the role of emerging home countries in the internationalization process of their domestic firms and more specifically in their ability to compete successfully abroad. How much do home specific assets still influence EMNEs’ foreign investment? Which home country assets provide the main competitive drivers to invest and compete abroad? How do EMNEs combine home country assets and host country assets to strengthen their competitive advantages? These questions as well as various others deserve further examination by the scientific community.Keywords: competitiveness, emerging countries' multinational enterprises, foreign direct investments, international business
Procedia PDF Downloads 2543118 Exploring the Contribution of Dynamic Capabilities to a Firm's Value Creation: The Role of Competitive Strategy
Authors: Mona Rashidirad, Hamid Salimian
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Dynamic capabilities, as the most considerable capabilities of firms in the current fast-moving economy may not be sufficient for performance improvement, but their contribution to performance is undeniable. While much of the extant literature investigates the impact of dynamic capabilities on organisational performance, little attention has been devoted to understand whether and how dynamic capabilities create value. Dynamic capabilities as the mirror of competitive strategies should enable firms to search and seize new ideas, integrate and coordinate the firm’s resources and capabilities in order to create value. A careful investigation to the existing knowledge base remains us puzzled regarding the relationship among competitive strategies, dynamic capabilities and value creation. This study thus attempts to fill in this gap by empirically investigating the impact of dynamic capabilities on value creation and the mediating impact of competitive strategy on this relationship. We aim to contribute to dynamic capability view (DCV), in both theoretical and empirical senses, by exploring the impact of dynamic capabilities on firms’ value creation and whether competitive strategy can play any role in strengthening/weakening this relationship. Using a sample of 491 firms in the UK telecommunications market, the results demonstrate that dynamic sensing, learning, integrating and coordinating capabilities play a significant role in firm’s value creation, and competitive strategy mediates the impact of dynamic capabilities on value creation. Adopting DCV, this study investigates whether the value generating from dynamic capabilities depends on firms’ competitive strategy. This study argues a firm’s competitive strategy can mediate its ability to derive value from its dynamic capabilities and it explains the extent a firm’s competitive strategy may influence its value generation. The results of the dynamic capabilities-value relationships support our expectations and justify the non-financial value added of the four dynamic capability processes in a highly turbulent market, such as UK telecommunications. Our analytical findings of the relationship among dynamic capabilities, competitive strategy and value creation provide further evidence of the undeniable role of competitive strategy in deriving value from dynamic capabilities. The results reinforce the argument for the need to consider the mediating impact of organisational contextual factors, such as firm’s competitive strategy to examine how they interact with dynamic capabilities to deliver value. The findings of this study provide significant contributions to theory. Unlike some previous studies which conceptualise dynamic capabilities as a unidimensional construct, this study demonstrates the benefits of understanding the details of the link among the four types of dynamic capabilities, competitive strategy and value creation. In terms of contributions to managerial practices, this research draws attention to the importance of competitive strategy in conjunction with development and deployment of dynamic capabilities to create value. Managers are now equipped with solid empirical evidence which explains why DCV has become essential to firms in today’s business world.Keywords: dynamic capabilities, resource based theory, value creation, competitive strategy
Procedia PDF Downloads 2343117 Interpretable Deep Learning Models for Medical Condition Identification
Authors: Dongping Fang, Lian Duan, Xiaojing Yuan, Mike Xu, Allyn Klunder, Kevin Tan, Suiting Cao, Yeqing Ji
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Accurate prediction of a medical condition with straight clinical evidence is a long-sought topic in the medical management and health insurance field. Although great progress has been made with machine learning algorithms, the medical community is still, to a certain degree, suspicious about the model's accuracy and interpretability. This paper presents an innovative hierarchical attention deep learning model to achieve good prediction and clear interpretability that can be easily understood by medical professionals. This deep learning model uses a hierarchical attention structure that matches naturally with the medical history data structure and reflects the member’s encounter (date of service) sequence. The model attention structure consists of 3 levels: (1) attention on the medical code types (diagnosis codes, procedure codes, lab test results, and prescription drugs), (2) attention on the sequential medical encounters within a type, (3) attention on the medical codes within an encounter and type. This model is applied to predict the occurrence of stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD3), using three years’ medical history of Medicare Advantage (MA) members from a top health insurance company. The model takes members’ medical events, both claims and electronic medical record (EMR) data, as input, makes a prediction of CKD3 and calculates the contribution from individual events to the predicted outcome. The model outcome can be easily explained with the clinical evidence identified by the model algorithm. Here are examples: Member A had 36 medical encounters in the past three years: multiple office visits, lab tests and medications. The model predicts member A has a high risk of CKD3 with the following well-contributed clinical events - multiple high ‘Creatinine in Serum or Plasma’ tests and multiple low kidneys functioning ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ tests. Among the abnormal lab tests, more recent results contributed more to the prediction. The model also indicates regular office visits, no abnormal findings of medical examinations, and taking proper medications decreased the CKD3 risk. Member B had 104 medical encounters in the past 3 years and was predicted to have a low risk of CKD3, because the model didn’t identify diagnoses, procedures, or medications related to kidney disease, and many lab test results, including ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ were within the normal range. The model accurately predicts members A and B and provides interpretable clinical evidence that is validated by clinicians. Without extra effort, the interpretation is generated directly from the model and presented together with the occurrence date. Our model uses the medical data in its most raw format without any further data aggregation, transformation, or mapping. This greatly simplifies the data preparation process, mitigates the chance for error and eliminates post-modeling work needed for traditional model explanation. To our knowledge, this is the first paper on an interpretable deep-learning model using a 3-level attention structure, sourcing both EMR and claim data, including all 4 types of medical data, on the entire Medicare population of a big insurance company, and more importantly, directly generating model interpretation to support user decision. In the future, we plan to enrich the model input by adding patients’ demographics and information from free-texted physician notes.Keywords: deep learning, interpretability, attention, big data, medical conditions
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