Search results for: electricity demand forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4332

Search results for: electricity demand forecasting

3702 Lesson Learnt from Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation in Thailand with Global Self-Consumption Experience

Authors: Tongpong Sriboon, Prapita Thanarak, Chaitawatch Khunrangabsang

Abstract:

Nowadays, the usage of power generated from photovoltaic system has been promoted significantly in Thailand. The targeted result which is to increase the Solar Power Generation in 2036 to 6000 megawatts (MW) was planned by Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2015) and Power Development Plan (PDP 2015). The solar rooftop 200 MW was promoted and supported under the Feed-in Tariff scheme (FiT) in two phases; phase I in 2012 and phase II in 2015. However, the number of people interested in supporting the projects reduced due to many reasons which range from the first process to the last that is to sell electricity back to Electricity Authority. This paper will review this situation especially in total electricity generated from solar rooftop system during the day that has been sold back to the grid utility in different capacity FiT rates. With many stakeholders involved, the regulations and criteria were established to maintain the standard of the system. Besides, lots of problems have occurred during the processes including reliability and quality. These problems were shortly followed by other irrevocably issues concerning politics, social, economic etc. In order to effectively develop solar PV power system in Thailand, the problems and solutions were compared to those from six countries including Japan, Australia. America, China, German and Malaysia. This paper particularly focuses on policies and measurement implemented to encourage the rising in solar PV system interest. This review enables one to gain insight into the nature of the changes that have taken place in each and every country mentioned above as well as the underlying reasons behind them. Brief analysis is carried out on identify key challenges and opportunities for solar PV application. This could help create a development path that is suitable with situations to enhance the overall performance of solar PV power generating system in Thailand.

Keywords: solar PV rooftop, PV policy, self-consumption, solar PV power generation

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3701 Solar Energy Management: A Case Study of Bhubaneswar City

Authors: Rachita Lal

Abstract:

Solar energy is a clean energy source. Because it is readily available in India and has many potential decentralized uses, urban local authorities may use it in various ways to manage the energy needs in the territory under their control. Apart from these and other services for which people pay a substantial number of money, urban local councils play a crucial role in administering essential services like water supply, street lighting, and health care. ULBs may contribute considerably to the transition to solar energy, both for their benefit and simultaneously for several additional direct and indirect advantages at multiple levels. The research primarily focuses on using clean energy management to reduce urban areas' reliance on traditional (electricity) energy. A technique for estimating the rooftop solar power potential using GIS (Geographical Information System) is described. Given that the combustion of fossil fuels produces 75% of India's power, meeting the country's energy needs through renewable energy sources is a step toward sustainable development and combating climate change. The study will further help in categorization, phasing, and understanding the demand and supply and thus calculating the cumulative benefits. The main objectives are to study the consumption of conventional energy in the study area and to identify the potential areas where solar photovoltaic intervention can be installed.

Keywords: solar energy, GIS, clean energy management, sustainable development

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3700 Estimation of Small Hydropower Potential Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques in Pakistan

Authors: Malik Abid Hussain Khokhar, Muhammad Naveed Tahir, Muhammad Amin

Abstract:

Energy demand has been increased manifold due to increasing population, urban sprawl and rapid socio-economic improvements. Low water capacity in dams for continuation of hydrological power, land cover and land use are the key parameters which are creating problems for more energy production. Overall installed hydropower capacity of Pakistan is more than 35000 MW whereas Pakistan is producing up to 17000 MW and the requirement is more than 22000 that is resulting shortfall of 5000 - 7000 MW. Therefore, there is a dire need to develop small hydropower to fulfill the up-coming requirements. In this regards, excessive rainfall, snow nurtured fast flowing perennial tributaries and streams in northern mountain regions of Pakistan offer a gigantic scope of hydropower potential throughout the year. Rivers flowing in KP (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) province, GB (Gilgit Baltistan) and AJK (Azad Jammu & Kashmir) possess sufficient water availability for rapid energy growth. In the backdrop of such scenario, small hydropower plants are believed very suitable measures for more green environment and power sustainable option for the development of such regions. Aim of this study is to estimate hydropower potential sites for small hydropower plants and stream distribution as per steam network available in the available basins in the study area. The proposed methodology will focus on features to meet the objectives i.e. site selection of maximum hydropower potential for hydroelectric generation using well emerging GIS tool SWAT as hydrological run-off model on the Neelum, Kunhar and the Dor Rivers’ basins. For validation of the results, NDWI will be computed to show water concentration in the study area while overlaying on geospatial enhanced DEM. This study will represent analysis of basins, watershed, stream links, and flow directions with slope elevation for hydropower potential to produce increasing demand of electricity by installing small hydropower stations. Later on, this study will be benefitted for other adjacent regions for further estimation of site selection for installation of such small power plants as well.

Keywords: energy, stream network, basins, SWAT, evapotranspiration

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3699 System Analysis on Compact Heat Storage in the Built Environment

Authors: Wilko Planje, Remco Pollé, Frank van Buuren

Abstract:

An increased share of renewable energy sources in the built environment implies the usage of energy buffers to match supply and demand and to prevent overloads of existing grids. Compact heat storage systems based on thermochemical materials (TCM) are promising to be incorporated in future installations as an alternative for regular thermal buffers. This is due to the high energy density (1 – 2 GJ/m3). In order to determine the feasibility of TCM-based systems on building level several installation configurations are simulated and analyzed for different mixes of renewable energy sources (solar thermal, PV, wind, underground, air) for apartments/multistore-buildings for the Dutch situation. Thereby capacity, volume and financial costs are calculated. The simulation consists of options to include the current and future wind power (sea and land) and local roof-attached PV or solar-thermal systems. Thereby, the compact thermal buffer and optionally an electric battery (typically 10 kWhe) form the local storage elements for energy matching and shaving purposes. Besides, electric-driven heat pumps (air / ground) can be included for efficient heat generation in case of power-to-heat. The total local installation provides both space heating, domestic hot water as well as electricity for a specific case with low-energy apartments (annually 9 GJth + 8 GJe) in the year 2025. The energy balance is completed with grid-supplied non-renewable electricity. Taking into account the grid capacities (permanent 1 kWe/household), spatial requirements for the thermal buffer (< 2.5 m3/household) and a desired minimum of 90% share of renewable energy per household on the total consumption the wind-powered scenario results in acceptable sizes of compact thermal buffers with an energy-capacity of 4 - 5 GJth per household. This buffer is combined with a 10 kWhe battery and air source heat pump system. Compact thermal buffers of less than 1 GJ (typically volumes 0.5 - 1 m3) are possible when the installed wind-power is increased with a factor 5. In case of 15-fold of installed wind power compact heat storage devices compete with 1000 L water buffers. The conclusion is that compact heat storage systems can be of interest in the coming decades in combination with well-retrofitted low energy residences based on the current trends of installed renewable energy power.

Keywords: compact thermal storage, thermochemical material, built environment, renewable energy

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3698 The Use of PD and Tanδ Characteristics as Diagnostic Technique for the Insulation Integrity of XLPE Insulated Cable Joints

Authors: Mazen Al-Bulaihed, Nissar Wani, Abdulrahman Al-Arainy, Yasin Khan

Abstract:

Partial Discharge (PD) measurements are widely used for diagnostic purposes in electrical equipment used in power systems. The main cause of these measurements is to prevent large power failures as cables are prone to aging, which usually results in embrittlement, cracking and eventual failure of the insulating and sheathing materials, exposing the conductor and risking a potential short circuit, a likely cause of the electrical fire. Many distribution networks rely heavily on medium voltage (MV) power cables. The presence of joints in these networks is a vital part of serving the consumer demand for electricity continuously. Such measurements become even more important when the extent of dependence increases. Moreover, it is known that the partial discharge in joints and termination are difficult to track and are the most crucial point of failures in large power systems. This paper discusses the diagnostic techniques of four samples of XLPE insulated cable joints, each included with a different type of defect. Experiments were carried out by measuring PD and tanδ at very low frequency applied high voltage. The results show the importance of combining PD and tanδ for effective cable assessment.

Keywords: partial discharge, tan delta, very low frequency, XLPE cable

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3697 Measuring Output Multipliers of Energy Consumption and Manufacturing Sectors in Malaysia during the Global Financial Crisis

Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Tuan Ab. Rashid Bin Tuan Abdullah, Tahira Yasmin

Abstract:

The strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is widely recognised. Most countries’ energy demand declined during the economic depression known as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009. The objective of the current study is to investigate the energy consumption and performance of Malaysia’s manufacturing sectors during the GFC. We applied the output multiplier approach, which is based on the input-output model. Two input-output tables of Malaysia covering 2005 and 2010 were used. The results indicate significant changes in the output multipliers of the manufacturing sectors between 2005 and 2010. Moreover, the energy-to-manufacturing sectors’ output multipliers also decreased during the GFC due to a decline in export-oriented industries during the crisis. The increasing importance of the manufacturing sector to the development of Malaysian trade resulted in a noticeable decrease in the consumption of each energy sector’s output, especially the electricity and gas sector. Based on the research findings, the Malaysian government released several policy implementations in the form of stimulus packages to enhance these sectors’ performance and generally improve the Malaysian economy.

Keywords: global financial crisis, input-output model, manufacturing, output multipliers, energy, Malaysia

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3696 Controlling the Fluid Flow in Hydrogen Fuel Cells through Material Porosity Designs

Authors: Jamal Hussain Al-Smail

Abstract:

Hydrogen fuel cells (HFCs) are environmentally friendly, energy converter devices that convert the chemical energy of the reactants (oxygen and hydrogen) to electricity through electrochemical reactions. The level of the electricity production of HFCs mainly increases depending on the oxygen distribution in the HFC’s cathode gas diffusion layer (GDL). With a constant porosity of the GDL, the electrochemical reaction can have a great variation that reduces the cell’s productivity and stability. Our findings bring a methodology in finding porosity designs of the diffusion layer to improve the oxygen distribution such that it results in a stable oxygen-hydrogen reaction. We first introduce a mathematical model involving the mass and momentum transport equations, in which a porosity function of the GDL is incorporated as a control for the fluid flow. We then derive numerical methods for solving the mathematical model. In conclusion, we present our numerical results to show how to design the GDL porosity to result in a uniform oxygen distribution.

Keywords: fuel cells, material porosity design, mathematical modeling, porous media

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3695 Measurement of Operational and Environmental Performance of the Coal-Fired Power Plants in India by Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Authors: Vijay Kumar Bajpai, Sudhir Kumar Singh

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In this study, the performance analyses of the twenty five coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) used for electricity generation are carried out through various data envelopment analysis (DEA) models. Three efficiency indices are defined and pursued. During the calculation of the operational performance, energy and non-energy variables are used as input, and net electricity produced is used as desired output. CO2 emitted to the environment is used as the undesired output in the computation of the pure environmental performance while in Model-3 CO2 emissions is considered as detrimental input in the calculation of operational and environmental performance. Empirical results show that most of the plants are operating in increasing returns to scale region and Mettur plant is efficient one with regards to energy use and environment. The result also indicates that the undesirable output effect is insignificant in the research sample. The present study will provide clues to plant operators towards raising the operational and environmental performance of CFPPs.

Keywords: coal fired power plants, environmental performance, data envelopment analysis, operational performance

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3694 Assess and Improve Building Energy Efficiency– a Case Study on the Office of Research and Graduate Studies at Qatar University

Authors: Mohamed Youssef

Abstract:

The proliferation of energy consumption in the built environment has made energy efficiency and savings strategies a priority objective for energy policies in most countries. Qatar is a clear example, where it has initiated several programs and institutions to mitigate the overuse of electricity consumption and control the energy load of the building by following global standards and spreading awareness campaigns. A Case study on the Office of Research and Graduate Studies at Qatar University has been investigated in this paper. The paper studied the rating load of existing buildings before and after retrofitting by using Carrier’s Hourly Analysis Program (HAP). The performance of the building has increased especially after using the LED light system instead of fluorescent light with a low payback period. GINAN paint and green roof have shown a considerable contribution to the reduction of electrical load in the building. In comparison, the double HR window had the least effect on the reduction of electricity consumption.

Keywords: energy conservation in Qatar, HAP, LED light, GINAN paint, green roof, double HR window

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3693 Development of Electric Generator and Water Purifier Cart

Authors: Luisito L. Lacatan, Gian Carlo J. Bergonia, Felipe C. Buado III, Gerald L. Gono, Ron Mark V. Ortil, Calvin A. Yap

Abstract:

This paper features the development of a Mobile Self-sustaining Electricity Generator for water distillation process with MCU- based wireless controller & indicator designed to solve the problem of scarcity of clean water. It is a fact that pure water is precious nowadays and its value is more precious to those who do not have or enjoy it. There are many water filtration products in existence today. However, none of these products fully satisfies the needs of families needing clean drinking water. All of the following products require either large sums of money or extensive maintenance, and some products do not even come with a guarantee of potable water. The proposed project was designed to alleviate the problem of scarcity of potable water in the country and part of the purpose was also to identify the problem or loopholes of the project such as the distance and speed required to produce electricity using a wheel and alternator, the required time for the heating element to heat up, the capacity of the battery to maintain the heat of the heating element and the time required for the boiler to produce a clean and potable water. The project has three parts. The first part included the researchers’ effort to plan every part of the project from the conversion of mechanical energy to electrical energy, from purifying water to potable drinking water to the controller and indicator of the project using microcontroller unit (MCU). This included identifying the problem encountered and any possible solution to prevent and avoid errors. Gathering and reviewing related studies about the project helped the researcher reduce and prevent any problems before they could be encountered. It also included the price and quantity of materials used to control the budget.

Keywords: mobile, self – sustaining, electricity generator, water distillation, wireless battery indicator, wireless water level indicator

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3692 Changes in the Demand of Waterway Passengers During COVID-19 Pandemic: Case Study of Belém-Marajó Island, in Brazil

Authors: Maisa Sales Gama Tobias, Humberto de Paiva Junior, Luciano Silva Brito, Rui António Rodrigues Ramos

Abstract:

Waterway transport in the Amazon was the first means of access and occupation in the region. For the economic and social matter of high importance, still nowadays one of the main transport modes to several places in the region. To some places, still the only transport mode. With the advent of the pandemic, transport companies that already faced management challenges began to experience unprecedented structural changes and trends in trade and global supply chains. Thus, companies need operational reorganization to maintain the sustainability of the service under the penalty of loss of demand. Allied to this fact, it was observed that the demand presented behavior changes to adapt to this new moment. However, the lack of information about these changes makes it difficult to find solutions to maintain the quality of service. This work aimed to characterize the changes in the demand of waterway passengers through an empirical study with field research involving interviews with users and crew, on-board journeys, and visits to the waterway service company. The case study is the route Belém-Camara, on Marajó Island, in the state of Pará. This line is traditionally the only means of transport for this route, besides air transport on a much smaller scale. The collected data had a descriptive and analytical statistical treatment presented in this work. As the main result, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes, mainly in trip time and motives and, in the perception itself on service quality by part of the demand, with the increase of trip time and the feeling of insecurity. In conclusion, the service operator must review cost management and business survival strategies and tactics. The viability of the service and the social guarantee of transport proved to be threatened, putting at risk the service to the riverside populations.

Keywords: demand of waterway transport passengers, data analysis, COVID-19, amazonia

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3691 Precision Pest Management by the Use of Pheromone Traps and Forecasting Module in Mobile App

Authors: Muhammad Saad Aslam

Abstract:

In 2021, our organization has launched our proprietary mobile App i.e. Farm Intelligence platform, an industrial-first precision agriculture solution, to Pakistan. It was piloted at 47 locations (spanning around 1,200 hectares of land), addressing growers’ pain points by bringing the benefits of precision agriculture to their doorsteps. This year, we have extended its reach by more than 10 times (nearly 130,000 hectares of land) in almost 600 locations across the country. The project team selected highly infested areas to set up traps, which then enabled the sales team to initiate evidence-based conversations with the grower community about preventive crop protection products that includes pesticides and insecticides. Mega farmer meeting field visits and demonstrations plots coupled with extensive marketing activities, were setup to include farmer community. With the help of App real-time pest monitoring (using heat maps and infestation prediction through predictive analytics) we have equipped our growers with on spot insights that will help them optimize pesticide applications. Heat maps allow growers to identify infestation hot spots to fine-tune pesticide delivery, while predictive analytics enable preventive application of pesticides before the situation escalates. Ultimately, they empower growers to keep their crops safe for a healthy harvest.

Keywords: precision pest management, precision agriculture, real time pest tracking, pest forecasting

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3690 Energy Options and Environmental Impacts of Carbon Dioxide Utilization Pathways

Authors: Evar C. Umeozor, Experience I. Nduagu, Ian D. Gates

Abstract:

The energy requirements of carbon dioxide utilization (CDU) technologies/processes are diverse, so also are their environmental footprints. This paper explores the energy and environmental impacts of systems for CO₂ conversion to fuels, chemicals, and materials. Energy needs of the technologies and processes deployable in CO₂ conversion systems are met by one or combinations of hydrogen (chemical), electricity, heat, and light. Likewise, the environmental footprint of any CO₂ utilization pathway depends on the systems involved. So far, evaluation of CDU systems has been constrained to particular energy source/type or a subset of the overall system needed to make CDU possible. This introduces limitations to the general understanding of the energy and environmental implications of CDU, which has led to various pitfalls in past studies. A CDU system has an energy source, CO₂ supply, and conversion units. We apply a holistic approach to consider the impacts of all components in the process, including various sources of energy, CO₂ feedstock, and conversion technologies. The electricity sources include nuclear power, renewables (wind and solar PV), gas turbine, and coal. Heat is supplied from either electricity or natural gas, and hydrogen is produced from either steam methane reforming or electrolysis. The CO₂ capture unit uses either direct air capture or post-combustion capture via amine scrubbing, where applicable, integrated configurations of the CDU system are explored. We demonstrate how the overall energy and environmental impacts of each utilization pathway are obtained by aggregating the values for all components involved. Proper accounting of the energy and emission intensities of CDU must incorporate total balances for the utilization process and differences in timescales between alternative conversion pathways. Our results highlight opportunities for the use of clean energy sources, direct air capture, and a number of promising CO₂ conversion pathways for producing methanol, ethanol, synfuel, urea, and polymer materials.

Keywords: carbon dioxide utilization, processes, energy options, environmental impacts

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3689 Techno-Economic Analysis of Offshore Hybrid Energy Systems with Hydrogen Production

Authors: Anna Crivellari, Valerio Cozzani

Abstract:

Even though most of the electricity produced in the entire world still comes from fossil fuels, new policies are being implemented in order to promote a more sustainable use of energy sources. Offshore renewable resources have become increasingly attractive thanks to the huge entity of power potentially obtained. However, the intermittent nature of renewables often limits the capacity of the systems and creates mismatches between supply and demand. Hydrogen is foreseen to be a promising vector to store and transport large amounts of excess renewable power by using existing oil and gas infrastructure. In this work, an offshore hybrid energy system integrating wind energy conversion with hydrogen production was conceptually defined and applied to offshore gas platforms. A techno-economic analysis was performed by considering two different locations for the installation of the innovative power system, i.e., the North Sea and the Adriatic Sea. The water depth, the distance of the platform from the onshore gas grid, the hydrogen selling price and the green financial incentive were some of the main factors taken into account in the comparison. The results indicated that the use of well-defined indicators allows to capture specifically different cost and revenue features of the analyzed systems, as well as to evaluate their competitiveness in the actual and future energy market.

Keywords: cost analysis, energy efficiency assessment, hydrogen production, offshore wind energy

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3688 Assessment of Multi-Domain Energy Systems Modelling Methods

Authors: M. Stewart, Ameer Al-Khaykan, J. M. Counsell

Abstract:

Emissions are a consequence of electricity generation. A major option for low carbon generation, local energy systems featuring Combined Heat and Power with solar PV (CHPV) has significant potential to increase energy performance, increase resilience, and offer greater control of local energy prices while complementing the UK’s emissions standards and targets. Recent advances in dynamic modelling and simulation of buildings and clusters of buildings using the IDEAS framework have successfully validated a novel multi-vector (simultaneous control of both heat and electricity) approach to integrating the wide range of primary and secondary plant typical of local energy systems designs including CHP, solar PV, gas boilers, absorption chillers and thermal energy storage, and associated electrical and hot water networks, all operating under a single unified control strategy. Results from this work indicate through simulation that integrated control of thermal storage can have a pivotal role in optimizing system performance well beyond the present expectations. Environmental impact analysis and reporting of all energy systems including CHPV LES presently employ a static annual average carbon emissions intensity for grid supplied electricity. This paper focuses on establishing and validating CHPV environmental performance against conventional emissions values and assessment benchmarks to analyze emissions performance without and with an active thermal store in a notional group of non-domestic buildings. Results of this analysis are presented and discussed in context of performance validation and quantifying the reduced environmental impact of CHPV systems with active energy storage in comparison with conventional LES designs.

Keywords: CHPV, thermal storage, control, dynamic simulation

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3687 The Non-Stationary BINARMA(1,1) Process with Poisson Innovations: An Application on Accident Data

Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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3686 Increasing Productivity through Lean Manufacturing Principles and Tools: A Successful Rail Welding Plant Case

Authors: T. A. Faria, C. C. Toniolo, L. F. Ribeiro

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In order to satisfy the costumer’s needs, many sectors of industry and services has been spending major effort to make its processes more efficient. Facing a situation, when its production cannot cover the demand, the traditional way to achieve the production required involves, mostly, adding shifts, workforce, or even more machines. This paper narrates how lean manufacturing supported a dramatic increase of productivity at a rail welding plant in Brazil in order to meet the demand for the next years.

Keywords: productivity, lean manufacturing, rail welding, value stream mapping

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3685 The Relationships between Energy Consumption, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions, and GDP for Egypt: Time Series Analysis, 1980-2010

Authors: Jinhoa Lee

Abstract:

The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Egypt using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for co-integration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests some negative impacts of the CO2 emissions and the coal and natural gas use on the GDP. Conversely, a positive long-run causality from the electricity consumption to the GDP is found to be significant in Egypt during the period. In the short-run, some positive unidirectional causalities exist, running from the coal consumption to the GDP, and the CO2 emissions and the natural gas use. Further, the GDP and the electricity use are positively influenced by the consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use, and economic output in both the short term and long term; however, the effects may differ due to the sources of energy, such as in the case of Egypt for the period of 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, Egypt, energy consumption, GDP, time series analysis

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3684 A Predictive Model of Supply and Demand in the State of Jalisco, Mexico

Authors: M. Gil, R. Montalvo

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Business Intelligence (BI) has become a major source of competitive advantages for firms around the world. BI has been defined as the process of data visualization and reporting for understanding what happened and what is happening. Moreover, BI has been studied for its predictive capabilities in the context of trade and financial transactions. The current literature has identified that BI permits managers to identify market trends, understand customer relations, and predict demand for their products and services. This last capability of BI has been of special concern to academics. Specifically, due to its power to build predictive models adaptable to specific time horizons and geographical regions. However, the current literature of BI focuses on predicting specific markets and industries because the impact of such predictive models was relevant to specific industries or organizations. Currently, the existing literature has not developed a predictive model of BI that takes into consideration the whole economy of a geographical area. This paper seeks to create a predictive model of BI that would show the bigger picture of a geographical area. This paper uses a data set from the Secretary of Economic Development of the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Such data set includes data from all the commercial transactions that occurred in the state in the last years. By analyzing such data set, it will be possible to generate a BI model that predicts supply and demand from specific industries around the state of Jalisco. This research has at least three contributions. Firstly, a methodological contribution to the BI literature by generating the predictive supply and demand model. Secondly, a theoretical contribution to BI current understanding. The model presented in this paper incorporates the whole picture of the economic field instead of focusing on a specific industry. Lastly, a practical contribution might be relevant to local governments that seek to improve their economic performance by implementing BI in their policy planning.

Keywords: business intelligence, predictive model, supply and demand, Mexico

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3683 Flexible Feedstock Concept in Gasification Process for Carbon-Negative Energy Technology: A Case Study in Malaysia

Authors: Zahrul Faizi M. S., Ali A., Norhuda A. M.

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Emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) from solid waste treatment and dependency on fossil fuel to produce electricity are the major concern in Malaysia as well as global. Innovation in downdraft gasification with combined heat and power (CHP) systems has the potential to minimize solid waste and reduce the emission of anthropogenic GHG from conventional fossil fuel power plants. However, the efficiency and capability of downdraft gasification to generate electricity from various alternative fuels, for instance, agriculture residues (i.e., woodchip, coconut shell) and municipal solid waste (MSW), are still controversial, on top of the toxicity level from the produced bottom ash. Thus this study evaluates the adaptability and reliability of the 20 kW downdraft gasification system to generate electricity (while considering environmental sustainability from the bottom ash) using flexible local feedstock at 20, 40, and 60% mixed ratio of MSW: agriculture residues. Feedstock properties such as feed particle size, moisture, and ash contents are also analyzed to identify optimal characteristics for the combination of feedstock (feedstock flexibility) to obtain maximum energy generation. Results show that the gasification system is capable to flexibly accommodate different feedstock compositions subjected to specific particle size (less than 2 inches) at a moisture content between 15 to 20%. These values exhibit enhance gasifier performance and provide a significant effect to the syngas composition utilizes by the internal combustion engine, which reflects energy production. The result obtained in this study is able to provide a new perspective on the transition of the conventional gasification system to a future reliable carbon-negative energy technology. Subsequently, promoting commercial scale-up of the downdraft gasification system.

Keywords: carbon-negative energy, feedstock flexibility, gasification, renewable energy

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3682 Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Historical Data Using Modern Prediction Methods in Selected Sites of Geba Catchment, Ethiopia

Authors: Halefom Kidane

Abstract:

This study aims to assess the wind resource potential and characterize the urban area wind patterns in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. The estimation and characterization of wind resources are crucial for sustainable urban planning, renewable energy development, and climate change mitigation strategies. A secondary data collection method was used to carry out the study. The collected data at 2 meters was analyzed statistically and extrapolated to the standard heights of 10-meter and 30-meter heights using the power law equation. The standard deviation method was used to calculate the value of scale and shape factors. From the analysis presented, the maximum and minimum mean daily wind speed at 2 meters in 2016 was 1.33 m/s and 0.05 m/s in 2017, 1.67 m/s and 0.14 m/s in 2018, 1.61m and 0.07 m/s, respectively. The maximum monthly average wind speed of Hawassa City in 2016 at 2 meters was noticed in the month of December, which is around 0.78 m/s, while in 2017, the maximum wind speed was recorded in the month of January with a wind speed magnitude of 0.80 m/s and in 2018 June was maximum speed which is 0.76 m/s. On the other hand, October was the month with the minimum mean wind speed in all years, with a value of 0.47 m/s in 2016,0.47 in 2017 and 0.34 in 2018. The annual mean wind speed was 0.61 m/s in 2016,0.64, m/s in 2017 and 0.57 m/s in 2018 at a height of 2 meters. From extrapolation, the annual mean wind speeds for the years 2016,2017 and 2018 at 10 heights were 1.17 m/s,1.22 m/s, and 1.11 m/s, and at the height of 30 meters, were 3.34m/s,3.78 m/s, and 3.01 m/s respectively/Thus, the site consists mainly primarily classes-I of wind speed even at the extrapolated heights.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, forecasting, min-max normalization, wind speed

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3681 E-Payments, COVID-19 Restrictions, and Currency in Circulation: Thailand and Turkey

Authors: Zeliha Sayar

Abstract:

Central banks all over the world appear to be focusing first and foremost on retail central bank digital currency CBDC), i.e., digital cash/money. This approach is predicated on the belief that the use of cash has decreased, owing primarily to technological advancements and pandemic restrictions, and that a suitable foundation for the transition to a cashless society has been revealed. This study aims to contribute to the debate over whether digital money/CBDC can be a substitute or supplement to physical cash by examining the potential effects on cash demand. For this reason, this paper compares two emerging countries, Turkey, and Thailand, to demystify the impact of e-payment and COVID-19 restrictions on cash demand by employing fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR). The currency in circulation in two emerging countries, Turkey and Thailand, was examined in order to estimate the elasticity of different types of retail payments. The results demonstrate that real internet and mobile, cart, contactless payment, and e-money are long-term determinants of real cash demand in these two developing countries. Furthermore, with the exception of contactless payments in Turkey, there is a positive relationship between the currency in circulation and the various types of retail payments. According to findings, COVID-19 restrictions encourage the demand for cash, resulting in cash hoarding.

Keywords: CCR, DOLS, e-money, FMOLS, real cash

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3680 Full Analytical Procedure to Derive P-I Diagram of a Steel Beam under Blast Loading

Authors: L. Hamra, J. F. Demonceau, V. Denoël

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to study a beam extracted from a frame and subjected to blast loading. The demand of ductility depends on six dimensionless parameters: two related to the blast loading, two referring to the bending behavior of the beam and two corresponding to the dynamic behavior of the rest of the structure. We develop a full analytical procedure that provides the ductility demand as a function of these six dimensionless parameters.

Keywords: analytical procedure, blast loading, membrane force, P-I diagram

Procedia PDF Downloads 411
3679 Development of One-Axis Didactic Solar Tracker for Photovoltaic Panels

Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, M. R. B. Guerra Vale, F. K. O. M. Varella Guerra

Abstract:

In recent years, solar energy has established itself as one of the main sources of renewable energy, gaining a large space in electricity generation around the world. However, due to the low performance of photovoltaic panels, technologies need to be sought to maximize the production of electricity. In this regard, the present study aims to develop a prototype of solar tracker for didactics applications, controlled with the Arduino® platform, that enables the movement of photovoltaic plates in relation to the sun positions throughout the day through an electromechanical system, optimizing, thus, the efficiency of solar photovoltaic generation and improvements for the photovoltaic effect. The solar tracking technology developed in this work was presented of the shape oral and practical in two middle schools in the municipality of Mossoró/RN, being one of the public network and other of the private network, always keeping the average age of the students, in the case, around 16 years, contemplating an average of 60 students in each of the visits. Thus, it is concluded that the present study contributed substantially to the dissemination of knowledge concerning the photovoltaic solar generation, as well as the study of solar trackers, thus arousing the interest and curiosity of the students regarding the thematic approached.

Keywords: alternative energy, solar tracker, energy efficiency, photovoltaic panels

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
3678 Implementation of Enterprise Asset Management (E-AM) System at Oman Electricity Transmission Company

Authors: Omran Al Balushi, Haitham Al Rawahi

Abstract:

Enterprise Asset Management (eAM) has been implemented across different Generation, Transmission and Distribution subsidiaries in Nama Group companies. As part of Nama group, Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC) was the first company to implement this system. It was very important for OETC to implement and maintain such a system to achieve its business objectives and for effective operations, which will also support the delivery of the asset management strategy. Enterprise Asset Management (eAM) addresses the comprehensive asset maintenance requirements of Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC). OETC needs to optimize capacity and increase utilization, while lowering unit production. E-AM will enable OETC to adopt this strategy. Implementation of e-AM has improved operation performance with preventive and scheduled maintenance as well as it increased safety. Implementation of e-AM will also enable OETC to create optimal asset management strategy which will increase revenue and decrease cost by effectively monitoring operational data such as maintenance history and operation conditions. CMMS (Computerised Maintenance Management System) is the main software and the back-bone of e-AM system. It is used to provide an improved working practice to properly establish information and data flow related to maintenance activities. Implementation of e-AM system was one of the factors that supported OETC to achieve ISO55001 Certificate on fourth quarter of 2016. Also, full implementation of e-AM system will result in strong integration between CMMS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) application and it will improve OETC to build a reliable maintenance strategy for all asset classes in its Transmission network. In this paper we will share our experience and knowledge of implementing such a system and how it supported OETC’s management to make decisions. Also we would highlight the challenges and difficulties that we encountered during the implementation of e-AM. Also, we will list some features and advantages of e-AM in asset management, preventive maintenance and maintenance cost management.

Keywords: CMMS, Maintenance Management, Asset Management, Maintenance Strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
3677 Causal Inference Engine between Continuous Emission Monitoring System Combined with Air Pollution Forecast Modeling

Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

Abstract:

This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

Procedia PDF Downloads 67
3676 Physicochemical Characterization of Coastal Aerosols over the Mediterranean Comparison with Weather Research and Forecasting-Chem Simulations

Authors: Stephane Laussac, Jacques Piazzola, Gilles Tedeschi

Abstract:

Estimation of the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the climate evolution is an important scientific challenge. One of a major source of particles is constituted by the oceans through the generation of sea-spray aerosols. In coastal areas, marine aerosols can affect air quality through their ability to interact chemically and physically with other aerosol species and gases. The integration of accurate sea-spray emission terms in modeling studies is then required. However, it was found that sea-spray concentrations are not represented with the necessary accuracy in some situations, more particularly at short fetch. In this study, the WRF-Chem model was implemented on a North-Western Mediterranean coastal region. WRF-Chem is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model online-coupled with chemistry for investigation of regional-scale air quality which simulates the emission, transport, mixing, and chemical transformation of trace gases and aerosols simultaneously with the meteorology. One of the objectives was to test the ability of the WRF-Chem model to represent the fine details of the coastal geography to provide accurate predictions of sea spray evolution for different fetches and the anthropogenic aerosols. To assess the performance of the model, a comparison between the model predictions using a local emission inventory and the physicochemical analysis of aerosol concentrations measured for different wind direction on the island of Porquerolles located 10 km south of the French Riviera is proposed.

Keywords: sea-spray aerosols, coastal areas, sea-spray concentrations, short fetch, WRF-Chem model

Procedia PDF Downloads 178
3675 The Analysis of Thermal Conductivity in Porcine Meat Due to Electricity by Finite Element Method

Authors: Orose Rugchati, Sarawut Wattanawongpitak

Abstract:

This research studied the analysis of the thermal conductivity and heat transfer in porcine meat due to the electric current flowing between the electrode plates in parallel. Hot-boned pork sample was prepared in 2*1*1 cubic centimeter. The finite element method with ANSYS workbench program was applied to simulate this heat transfer problem. In the thermal simulation, the input thermoelectric energy was calculated from measured current that flowing through the pork and the input voltage from the dc voltage source. The comparison of heat transfer in pork according to two voltage sources: DC voltage 30 volts and dc pulsed voltage 60 volts (pulse width 50 milliseconds and 50 % duty cycle) were demonstrated. From the result, it shown that the thermal conductivity trends to be steady at temperature 40C and 60C around 1.39 W/mC and 2.65 W/mC for dc voltage source 30 volts and dc pulsed voltage 60 volts, respectively. For temperature increased to 50C at 5 minutes, the appearance color of porcine meat at the exposer point has become to fade. This technique could be used for predicting of thermal conductivity caused by some meat’s characteristics.

Keywords: thermal conductivity, porcine meat, electricity, finite element method

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3674 Bus Transit Demand Modeling and Fare Structure Analysis of Kabul City

Authors: Ramin Mirzada, Takuya Maruyama

Abstract:

Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the fifth fastest growing city in the world. Minimum income inclined most of Kabul residents to use public transport, especially buses, although there is no proper bus system, beside that there is no proper fare exist in Kabul city Due to wars. From 1992 to 2001 during civil wars, Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transport system (e.g. Millie bus). This research is mainly focused on Kabul city’s transportation system. In this research, the data used have been gathered by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2008 and this data will be used to find demand and fare structure, additionally a survey was done in 2016 to find satisfaction level of Kabul residents for fare structure. Aim of this research is to observe the demand for Large Buses, compare to the actual supply from the government, analyze the current fare structure and compare it with the proposed fare (distance based fare) structure which has already been analyzed. Outcome of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residents for the public transport (Large Buses) exceeds from the current supply, so that current public transportation (Large Buses) is not sufficient to serve public transport in Kabul city, worth to be mentioned, that in order to overcome this problem, there is no need to build new roads or exclusive way for buses. This research proposes government to change the fare from fixed fare to distance based fare, invest on public transportation and increase the number of large buses so that the current demand for public transport is met.

Keywords: transportation, planning, public transport, large buses, Kabul, Afghanistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
3673 Design Manufacture and Testing of a Combined Alpha-Beta Double Piston Stirling Engine

Authors: A. Calvin Antony, Sakthi Kumar Arul Prakash, V. R. Sanal Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper a unique alpha-beta double piston 'stirling engine' is designed, manufactured and conducted laboratory test to ameliorate the efficiency of the stirling engine. The paper focuses on alpha and beta type engines, capturing their benefits and eradicating their short comings; along with the output observed from the flywheel. In this model alpha engine is kinematically with a piston cylinder arrangement which works quite like a beta engine. The piston of the new cylinder is so designed that it replicates a glued displacer and power piston as similar to that of beta engine. The bigger part of the piston is the power piston, which has a gap around it, while the smaller part of the piston is tightly fit in the cylinder and acts like the displacer piston. We observed that the alpha-beta double piston stirling engine produces 25% increase in power compare to a conventional alpha stirling engine. This working model is a pointer towards for the design and development of an alpha-beta double piston Stirling engine for industrial applications for producing electricity from the heat producing exhaust gases.

Keywords: alpha-beta double piston stirling engine , alpha stirling engine , beta double piston stirling engine , electricity from stirling engine

Procedia PDF Downloads 522