Search results for: weights identify

Authors: Gousilin Leandra Rocha Da Silva, Stéfani T. A. Dantas, Bruna F. Rossi, Erika R. Bonsaglia, Ivana G. Castilho, Terue Sadatsune, Ary Fernandes Júnior, Vera l. M. Rall

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Kidney failure causes decreased diuresis and accumulation of nitrogenous substances in the body. To increase patient survival, hemodialysis is used as a partial substitute for renal function. However, contamination of the water used in this treatment, causing bacteremia in patients, is a worldwide concern. The Burkholderia cepacia complex (Bcc), a group of bacteria with more than 20 species, is frequently isolated from hemodialysis water samples and comprises opportunistic bacteria, affecting immunosuppressed patients, due to its wide variety of virulence factors, in addition to innate resistance to several antimicrobial agents, contributing to the permanence in the hospital environment and to the pathogenesis in the host. The objective of the present work was to characterize molecularly and phenotypically Bcc isolates collected from the water and dialysate of the Hemodialysis Unit and from the blood of patients at a Public Hospital in Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil, between 2019 and 2021. We used 33 Bcc isolates, previously obtained from blood cultures from patients with bacteremia undergoing hemodialysis treatment (2019-2021) and 24 isolates obtained from water and dialysate samples in a Hemodialysis Unit (same period). The recA gene was sequenced to identify the specific species among the Bcc group. All isolates were tested for the presence of some genes that encode virulence factors such as cblA, esmR, zmpA and zmpB. Considering the epidemiology of the outbreak, the Bcc isolates were molecularly characterized by Multi Locus Sequence Type (MLST) and by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The verification and quantification of biofilm in a polystyrene microplate were performed by submitting the isolates to different incubation temperatures (20°C, average water temperature and 35°C, optimal temperature for group growth). The antibiogram was performed with disc diffusion tests on agar, using discs impregnated with cefepime (30µg), ceftazidime (30µg), ciprofloxacin (5µg), gentamicin (10µg), imipenem (10µg), amikacin 30µg), sulfametazol/trimethoprim (23.75/1.25µg) and ampicillin/sulbactam (10/10µg). The presence of ZmpB was identified in all isolates, while ZmpA was observed in 96.5% of the isolates, while none of them presented the cblA and esmR genes. The antibiogram of the 33 human isolates indicated that all were resistant to gentamicin, colistin, ampicillin/sulbactam and imipenem. 16 (48.5%) isolates were resistant to amikacin and lower rates of resistance were observed for meropenem, ceftazidime, cefepime, ciprofloxacin and piperacycline/tazobactam (6.1%). All isolates were sensitive to sulfametazol/trimethoprim, levofloxacin and tigecycline. As for the water isolates, resistance was observed only to gentamicin (34.8%) and imipenem (17.4%). According to PFGE results, all isolates obtained from humans and water belonged to the same pulsotype (1), which was identified by recA sequencing as B. cepacia¸, belonging to sequence type ST-767. By observing a single pulse type over three years, one can observe the persistence of this isolate in the pipeline, contaminating patients undergoing hemodialysis, despite the routine disinfection of water with peracetic acid. This persistence is probably due to the production of biofilm, which protects bacteria from disinfectants and, making this scenario more critical, several isolates proved to be multidrug-resistant (resistance to at least three groups of antimicrobials), turning the patient care even more difficult.

Keywords: hemodialysis, burkholderia cepacia, PFGE, MLST, multi drug resistance

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Authors: Dongping Fang, Lian Duan, Xiaojing Yuan, Mike Xu, Allyn Klunder, Kevin Tan, Suiting Cao, Yeqing Ji

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Accurate prediction of a medical condition with straight clinical evidence is a long-sought topic in the medical management and health insurance field. Although great progress has been made with machine learning algorithms, the medical community is still, to a certain degree, suspicious about the model's accuracy and interpretability. This paper presents an innovative hierarchical attention deep learning model to achieve good prediction and clear interpretability that can be easily understood by medical professionals. This deep learning model uses a hierarchical attention structure that matches naturally with the medical history data structure and reflects the member’s encounter (date of service) sequence. The model attention structure consists of 3 levels: (1) attention on the medical code types (diagnosis codes, procedure codes, lab test results, and prescription drugs), (2) attention on the sequential medical encounters within a type, (3) attention on the medical codes within an encounter and type. This model is applied to predict the occurrence of stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD3), using three years’ medical history of Medicare Advantage (MA) members from a top health insurance company. The model takes members’ medical events, both claims and electronic medical record (EMR) data, as input, makes a prediction of CKD3 and calculates the contribution from individual events to the predicted outcome. The model outcome can be easily explained with the clinical evidence identified by the model algorithm. Here are examples: Member A had 36 medical encounters in the past three years: multiple office visits, lab tests and medications. The model predicts member A has a high risk of CKD3 with the following well-contributed clinical events - multiple high ‘Creatinine in Serum or Plasma’ tests and multiple low kidneys functioning ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ tests. Among the abnormal lab tests, more recent results contributed more to the prediction. The model also indicates regular office visits, no abnormal findings of medical examinations, and taking proper medications decreased the CKD3 risk. Member B had 104 medical encounters in the past 3 years and was predicted to have a low risk of CKD3, because the model didn’t identify diagnoses, procedures, or medications related to kidney disease, and many lab test results, including ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ were within the normal range. The model accurately predicts members A and B and provides interpretable clinical evidence that is validated by clinicians. Without extra effort, the interpretation is generated directly from the model and presented together with the occurrence date. Our model uses the medical data in its most raw format without any further data aggregation, transformation, or mapping. This greatly simplifies the data preparation process, mitigates the chance for error and eliminates post-modeling work needed for traditional model explanation. To our knowledge, this is the first paper on an interpretable deep-learning model using a 3-level attention structure, sourcing both EMR and claim data, including all 4 types of medical data, on the entire Medicare population of a big insurance company, and more importantly, directly generating model interpretation to support user decision. In the future, we plan to enrich the model input by adding patients’ demographics and information from free-texted physician notes.

Keywords: deep learning, interpretability, attention, big data, medical conditions

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Authors: A. Calabrese, V. F. Uricchio, D. di Noia, S. Favale, C. Caiati, G. P. Maggi, G. Donvito, D. Diacono, S. Tangaro, A. Italiano, E. Riezzo, M. Zippitelli, M. Toriello, E. Celiberti, D. Festa, A. Colaianni

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Climate change has a severe impact on human health. There is a vast literature demonstrating temperature increase is causally related to cardiovascular problem and represents a high risk for human health, but there are not study that improve a solution. In this work, it is studied how the clime influenced the human parameter through the analysis of climatic conditions in an area of the Apulia Region: Capurso Municipality. At the same time, medical personnel involved identified a set of variables useful to define an index describing health condition. These scientific studies are the base of an innovative alert system, IPPOCRATE, whose aim is to asses climate risk and share information to population at risk to support prevention and mitigation actions. IPPOCRATE is an e-health system, it is designed to provide technological support to analysis of health risk related to climate and provide tools for prevention and management of critical events. It is the first integrated system of prevention of human risk caused by climate change. IPPOCRATE calculates risk weighting meteorological data with the vulnerability of monitored subjects and uses mobile and cloud technologies to acquire and share information on different data channels. It is composed of four components: Multichannel Hub. Multichannel Hub is the ICT infrastructure used to feed IPPOCRATE cloud with a different type of data coming from remote monitoring devices, or imported from meteorological databases. Such data are ingested, transformed and elaborated in order to be dispatched towards mobile app and VoIP phone systems. IPPOCRATE Multichannel Hub uses open communication protocols to create a set of APIs useful to interface IPPOCRATE with 3rd party applications. Internally, it uses non-relational paradigm to create flexible and highly scalable database. WeHeart and Smart Application The wearable device WeHeart is equipped with sensors designed to measure following biometric variables: heart rate, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, body temperature and blood glucose for diabetic subjects. WeHeart is designed to be easy of use and non-invasive. For data acquisition, users need only to wear it and connect it to Smart Application by Bluetooth protocol. Easy Box was designed to take advantage from new technologies related to e-health care. EasyBox allows user to fully exploit all IPPOCRATE features. Its name, Easy Box, reveals its purpose of container for various devices that may be included depending on user needs. Territorial Registry is the IPPOCRATE web module reserved to medical personnel for monitoring, research and analysis activities. Territorial Registry allows to access to all information gathered by IPPOCRATE using GIS system in order to execute spatial analysis combining geographical data (climatological information and monitored data) with information regarding the clinical history of users and their personal details. Territorial Registry was designed for different type of users: control rooms managed by wide area health facilities, single health care center or single doctor. Territorial registry manages such hierarchy diversifying the access to system functionalities. IPPOCRATE is the first e-Health system focused on climate risk prevention.

Keywords: climate change, health risk, new technological system

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Authors: Oluwaseun Adeleke, Samuel O. Ikani, Fidelis Edet, Anthony Nwala, Mopelola Raji, Simeon Christian Chukwu

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Background: The DISC project collaborated with partners to implement demand creation and service delivery interventions, including the MoT (Moment of Truth) innovation, in over 500 health facilities across 15 states. This has increased the voluntary conversion rate to self-injection among women who opt for injectable contraception. While some facilities recorded an increasing trend in key performance indicators, few others persistently performed sub-optimally due to provider and system-related barriers. Methodology: Twenty-two facilities performing sub-optimally were selected purposively from three Nigerian states. Low productivity was appraised using low reporting rates and poor SI conversion rates as indicators. Interviews were conducted with health providers across these health facilities using a rapid diagnosis tool. The project also conducted a data quality assessment that evaluated the veracity of data elements reported across the three major sources of family planning data in the facility. Findings: The inability and sometimes refusal of providers to support clients to self-inject effectively was associated with the misunderstanding of its value to their work experience. It was also observed that providers still held a strong influence over clients’ method choices. Furthermore, providers held biases and misconceptions about DMPA-SC that restricted the access of obese clients and new acceptors to services – a clear departure from the recommendations of the national guidelines. Additionally, quality of care standards was compromised because job aids were not used to inform service delivery. Facilities performing sub-optimally often under-reported DMPA-SC utilization data, and there were multiple uncoordinated responsibilities for recording and reporting. Additionally, data validation meetings were not regularly convened, and these meetings were ineffective in authenticating data received from health facilities. Other reasons for sub-optimal performance included poor documentation and tracking of stock inventory resulting in commodity stockouts, low client flow because of poor positioning of health facilities, and ineffective messaging. Some facilities lacked adequate human and material resources to provide services effectively and received very few supportive supervision visits. Supportive supervision visits and Data Quality Audits have been useful to address the aforementioned performance barriers. The project has deployed digital DMPA-SC self-injection checklists that have been aligned with nationally approved templates. During visits, each provider and community mobilizer is accorded special attention by the supervisor until he/she can perform procedures in line with best practice (protocol). Conclusion: This narrative provides a summary of a range of factors that identify health facilities performing sub-optimally in their provision of DMPA-SC services. Findings from this assessment will be useful during project design to inform effective strategies. As the project enters its final stages of implementation, it is transitioning high-impact activities to state institutions in the quest to sustain the quality of service beyond the tenure of the project. The project has flagged activities, as well as created protocols and tools aimed at placing state-level stakeholders at the forefront of improving productivity in health facilities.

Keywords: family planning, contraception, DMPA-SC, self-care, self-injection, barriers, opportunities, performance

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Authors: Chales Mumbere Musavandalo, Lucie B. Mugherwa, Gloire Kayitoghera Mulondi, Naanson Bweya, Muyisa Musongora, Francis Lelo Nzuzi

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The landscape of the Okapi Wildlife Reserve in the Democratic Republic of Congo harbors a large community of Mbuti indigenous peoples, often described as the guardians of nature. Living in and off the forest has long been a sustainable strategy for preserving natural resources. This strategy, seen as a form of eco-responsible citizenship, draws upon ethnobotanical knowledge passed down through generations. However, these indigenous communities are facing socio-cultural upheaval, which impacts their traditional way of life. This study aims to assess the relationship between the Mbuti indigenous people’s way of life and the preservation of the Okapi Wildlife Reserve. The study was conducted under the assumption that, despite socio-cultural upheavals, the forest and its resources remain central to the Mbuti way of life. The study was conducted in six encampments, three of which were located inside the forest and two in the anthropized zone. The methodological approach initially involved group interviews in six Mbuti encampments. The objective of these interviews was to determine how these people perceive the various services provided by the forest and the resources obtained from this habitat. The technique of using pebbles was adopted to adapt the exercise of weighting services and resources to the understanding of these people. Subsequently, the study carried out ethnobotanical surveys to identify the wood resources frequently used by these communities. This survey was completed in third position by a transect inventory of 1000 m length and 25 m width in order to enhance the understanding of the abundance of these resources around the camps. Two transects were installed in each camp to carry out this inventory. Traditionally, the Mbuti communities sustain their livelihood through hunting, fishing, gathering for self-consumption, and basketry. The Manniophyton fulvum-based net remains the main hunting tool. The primary forest and the swamp are two habitats from which these peoples derive the majority of their resources. However, with the arrival of the Bantu people, who introduced agriculture based on cocoa production, the Mbuti communities started providing services to the Bantu in the form of labor and field guarding. This cultural symbiosis between Mbute and Bantu has also led to non-traditional practices, such as the use of hunting rifles instead of nets and fishing nets instead of creels. The socio-economic and ecological environment in which Mbuti communities live is changing rapidly, including the resources they depend on. By incorporating the time factor into their perception of ecosystem services, only their future (p-value = 0, 0,121), the provision of wood for energy (p-value = 0,1976), and construction (p-value = 0,2548) would be closely associated with the forest in their future. For other services, such as food supply, medicine, and hunting, adaptation to Bantu customs is conceivable. Additionally, the abundance of wood used by the Mbuti people has been high around encampments located in intact forests and low in those in anthropized areas. The traditional way of life of the Mbuti communities is influenced by the cultural symbiosis, reflected in their habits and the availability of resources. The land tenure security of Mbuti areas is crucial to preserve their tradition and forest biodiversity. Conservation efforts in the Okapi Wildlife Reserve must consider this cultural dynamism and promote positive values for the flagship species. The oversight of subsistence hunting is imperative to curtail the transition of these communities to poaching.

Keywords: traditional life, conservation, Indigenous people, cultural symbiosis, forest

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Authors: Samuel Escandón, María J. Peñaherrera-Vélez, Signe Vargas-Rosvik, Carlos Jerves Córdova, Ximena Vélez-Calvo, Angélica Ochoa-Avilés

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Overweight and obesity are considered risk factors in childhood for developing nutrition-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. In Ecuador, 35.4% of 5- to 11-year-olds and 29.6% of 12- to 19-year-olds are overweight or obese. Globally, unhealthy food environments characterized by high consumption of processed/ultra-processed food and rapid urbanization are highly related to the increasing nutrition-related non-communicable diseases. The evidence shows that in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), fiscal policies and regulatory measures significantly reduce unhealthy food environments, achieving substantial advances in health. However, in some LMICs, little is known about the impact of governments' action to implement healthy food-environment policies. This study aimed to generate evidence on the state of implementation of public policy focused on food environments for the prevention of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents in Ecuador compared to global best practices and to target key recommendations for reinforcing the current strategies. After adapting the INFORMAS' Healthy Food Environment Policy Index (Food‐EPI) to the Ecuadorian context, the Policy and Infrastructure support components were assessed. Individual online interviews were performed using fifty-one indicators to analyze the level of implementation of policies directly or indirectly related to preventing overweight and obesity in children and adolescents compared to international best practices. Additionally, a participatory workshop was conducted to identify the critical indicators and generate recommendations to reinforce or improve the political action around them. In total, 17 government and non-government experts were consulted. From 51 assessed indicators, only the one corresponding to the nutritional information and ingredients labelling registered an implementation level higher than 60% (67%) compared to the best international practices. Among the 17 indicators determined as priorities by the participants, those corresponding to the provision of local products in school meals and the limitation of unhealthy-products promotion in traditional and digital media had the lowest level of implementation (34% and 11%, respectively) compared to global best practices. The participants identified more barriers (e.g., lack of continuity of effective policies across government administrations) than facilitators (e.g., growing interest from the Ministry of Environment because of the eating-behavior environmental impact) for Ecuador to move closer to the best international practices. Finally, within the participants' recommendations, we highlight the need for policy-evaluation systems, information transparency on the impact of the policies, transformation of successful strategies into laws or regulations to make them mandatory, and regulation of power and influence from the food industry (conflicts of interest). Actions focused on promoting a more active role of society in the stages of policy formation and achieving more articulated actions between the different government levels/institutions for implementing the policy are necessary to generate a noteworthy impact on preventing overweight and obesity in children and adolescents. Including systems for internal evaluation of existing strategies to strengthen successful actions, create policies to fill existing gaps and reform policies that do not generate significant impact should be a priority for the Ecuadorian government to improve the country's food environments.

Keywords: children and adolescents, food-EPI, food policies, healthy food environment

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Authors: Wiseman Emmanuel Nkhomah, Chiyembekezo Kachimanga, Moses Banda Aron, Julia Higgins, Manuel Mulwafu, Kondwani Mpinga, Mwayi Chunga, Grace Momba, Enock Ndarama, Dickson Sumphi, Atupere Phiri, Fabien Munyaneza

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Background: Data is key to supporting health service delivery as stakeholders, including NGOs rely on it for effective service delivery, decision-making, and system strengthening. Several studies generated debate on data quality from national health management information systems (HMIS) in sub-Saharan Africa. This limits the utilization of data in resource-limited settings, which already struggle to meet standards set by the World Health Organization (WHO). We aimed to evaluate data quality improvement of Neno district HMIS over a 4-year period (2018 – 2021) following quarterly data reviews introduced in January 2020 by the district health management team and Partners In Health. Methods: Exploratory Mixed Research was used to examine report rates, followed by in-depth interviews using Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). We used the WHO module desk review to assess the quality of HMIS data in the Neno district captured from 2018 to 2021. The metrics assessed included the completeness and timeliness of 34 reports. Completeness was measured as a percentage of non-missing reports. Timeliness was measured as the span between data inputs and expected outputs meeting needs. We computed T-Test and recorded P-values, summaries, and percentage changes using R and Excel 2016. We analyzed demographics for key informant interviews in Power BI. We developed themes from 7 FGDs and 11 KIIs using Dedoose software, from which we picked perceptions of healthcare workers, interventions implemented, and improvement suggestions. The study was reviewed and approved by Malawi National Health Science Research Committee (IRB: 22/02/2866). Results: Overall, the average reporting completeness rate was 83.4% (before) and 98.1% (after), while timeliness was 68.1% and 76.4 respectively. Completeness of reports increased over time: 2018, 78.8%; 2019, 88%; 2020, 96.3% and 2021, 99.9% (p< 0.004). The trend for timeliness has been declining except in 2021, where it improved: 2018, 68.4%; 2019, 68.3%; 2020, 67.1% and 2021, 81% (p< 0.279). Comparing 2021 reporting rates to the mean of three preceding years, both completeness increased from 88% to 99% (in 2021), while timeliness increased from 68% to 81%. Sixty-five percent of reports have maintained meeting a national standard of 90%+ in completeness while only 24% in timeliness. Thirty-two percent of reports met the national standard. Only 9% improved on both completeness and timeliness, and these are; cervical cancer, nutrition care support and treatment, and youth-friendly health services reports. 50% of reports did not improve to standard in timeliness, and only one did not in completeness. On the other hand, factors associated with improvement included improved communications and reminders using internal communication, data quality assessments, checks, and reviews. Decentralizing data entry at the facility level was suggested to improve timeliness. Conclusion: Findings suggest that data quality in HMIS for the district has improved following collaborative efforts. We recommend maintaining such initiatives to identify remaining quality gaps and that results be shared publicly to support increased use of data. These results can inform Ministry of Health and its partners on some interventions and advise initiatives for improving its quality.

Keywords: data quality, data utilization, HMIS, collaboration, completeness, timeliness, decision-making

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Authors: Boris Nemzer, Nebiyu Abshiru, Z. B. Pietrzkowski

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Coffee cherry is one of the most ubiquitous agricultural commodities which possess nutritional and human health beneficial properties. Between the two most widely used coffee cherries Coffea arabica (Arabica) and Coffea canephora (Robusta), Coffea arabica remains superior due to its sensory properties and, therefore, remains in great demand in the global coffee market. In this study, the phytochemical contents and pharmacokinetics of Coffeeberry® Energy (CBE), a commercially available Arabica whole coffee fruit caffeine extract, are investigated. For phytochemical screening, 20 mg of CBE was dissolved in an aqueous methanol solution for analysis by mass spectrometry (MS). Quantification of caffeine and chlorogenic acids (CGAs) contents of CBE was performed using HPLC. For the bioavailability study, serum samples were collected from human subjects before and after 1, 2 and 3 h post-ingestion of 150mg CBE extract. Protein precipitation and extraction were carried out using methanol. Identification of compounds was performed using an untargeted metabolomic approach on Q-Exactive Orbitrap MS coupled to reversed-phase chromatography. Data processing was performed using Thermo Scientific Compound Discover 3.3 software. Phytochemical screening identified a total of 170 compounds, including organic acids, phenolic acids, CGAs, diterpenoids and hydroxytryptamine. Caffeine & CGAs make up more than, respectively, 70% & 9% of the total CBE composition. For serum samples, a total of 82 metabolites representing 32 caffeine- and 50 phenolic-derived metabolites were identified. Volcano plot analysis revealed 32 differential metabolites (24 caffeine- and 8 phenolic-derived) that showed an increase in serum level post-CBE dosing. Caffeine, uric acid, and trimethyluric acid isomers exhibited 4- to 10-fold increase in serum abundance post-dosing. 7-Methyluric acid, 1,7-dimethyluric acid, paraxanthine and theophylline exhibited a minimum of 1.5-fold increase in serum level. Among the phenolic-derived metabolites, iso-feruloyl quinic acid isomers (3-, 4- and 5-iFQA) showed the highest increase in serum level. These compounds were essentially absent in serum collected before dosage. More interestingly, the iFQA isomers were not originally present in the CBE extract, as our phytochemical screen did not identify these compounds. This suggests the potential formation of the isomers during the digestion and absorption processes. Pharmacokinetics parameters (Cmax, Tmax and AUC0-3h) of caffeine- and phenolic-derived metabolites were also investigated. Caffeine was rapidly absorbed, reaching a maximum concentration (Cmax) of 10.95 µg/ml in just 1 hour. Thereafter, caffeine level steadily dropped from the peak level, although it did not return to baseline within the 3-hour dosing period. The disappearance of caffeine from circulation was mirrored by the rise in the concentration of its methylxanthine metabolites. Similarly, serum concentration of iFQA isomers steadily increased, reaching maximum (Cmax: 3-iFQA, 1.54 ng/ml; 4-iFQA, 2.47 ng/ml; 5-iFQA, 2.91 ng/ml) at tmax of 1.5 hours. The isomers remained well above the baseline during the 3-hour dosing period, allowing them to remain in circulation long enough for absorption into the body. Overall, the current study provides evidence of the potential health benefits of a uniquely formulated whole coffee fruit product. Consumption of this product resulted in a distinct serum profile of bioactive compounds, as demonstrated by the more than 32 metabolites that exhibited a significant change in systemic exposure.

Keywords: phytochemicals, mass spectrometry, pharmacokinetics, differential metabolites, chlorogenic acids

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Authors: Maria Areias, Diogo Simões, Ana Figueiredo, Anishur Rahman, Filipa Figueiredo, João Nunes

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It is expected that close to 7 billion people will live in urban areas by 2050. In order to improve the sustainability of the territories and its transition towards circular economy, it’s necessary to understand its metabolism and promote and guide the entrepreneurship answer. The study of a macroeconomic metabolism involves the quantification of the inputs, outputs and storage of energy, water, materials and wastes for an urban region. This quantification and analysis representing one opportunity for the promotion of green entrepreneurship. There are several methods to assess the environmental impacts of an urban territory, such as human and environmental risk assessment (HERA), life cycle assessment (LCA), ecological footprint assessment (EF), material flow analysis (MFA), physical input-output table (PIOT), ecological network analysis (ENA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) among others. However, no consensus exists about which of those assessment methods are best to analyze the sustainability of these complex systems. Taking into account the weaknesses and needs identified, the CiiM - Circular Innovation Inter-Municipality project aims to define an uniform and globally accepted methodology through the integration of various methodologies and dynamic approaches to increase the efficiency of macroeconomic metabolisms and promoting entrepreneurship in a circular economy. The pilot territory considered in CiiM project has a total area of 969,428 ha, comprising a total of 897,256 inhabitants (about 41% of the population of the Center Region). The main economic activities in the pilot territory, which contribute to a gross domestic product of 14.4 billion euros, are: social support activities for the elderly; construction of buildings; road transport of goods, retailing in supermarkets and hypermarkets; mass production of other garments; inpatient health facilities; and the manufacture of other components and accessories for motor vehicles. The region's business network is mostly constituted of micro and small companies (similar to the Central Region of Portugal), with a total of 53,708 companies identified in the CIM Region of Coimbra (39 large companies), 28,146 in the CIM Viseu Dão Lafões (22 large companies) and 24,953 in CIM Beiras and Serra da Estrela (13 large companies). For the construction of the database was taking into account data available at the National Institute of Statistics (INE), General Directorate of Energy and Geology (DGEG), Eurostat, Pordata, Strategy and Planning Office (GEP), Portuguese Environment Agency (APA), Commission for Coordination and Regional Development (CCDR) and Inter-municipal Community (CIM), as well as dedicated databases. In addition to the collection of statistical data, it was necessary to identify and characterize the different stakeholder groups in the pilot territory that are relevant to the different metabolism components under analysis. The CIIM project also adds the potential of a Geographic Information System (GIS) so that it is be possible to obtain geospatial results of the territorial metabolisms (rural and urban) of the pilot region. This platform will be a powerful visualization tool of flows of products/services that occur within the region and will support the stakeholders, improving their circular performance and identifying new business ideas and symbiotic partnerships.

Keywords: circular economy tools, life cycle assessment macroeconomic metabolism, multicriteria decision analysis, decision support tools, circular entrepreneurship, industrial and regional symbiosis

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Authors: Benjamin J. Kuo, Silvia D. Vaca, Joao Ricardo Nickenig Vissoci, Catherine A. Staton, Linda Xu, Michael Muhumuza, Hussein Ssenyonjo, John Mukasa, Joel Kiryabwire, Lydia Nanjula, Christine Muhumuza, Henry E. Rice, Gerald A. Grant, Michael M. Haglund

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Background: Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is disproportionally concentrated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with the odds of dying from TBI in Uganda more than 4 times higher than in high income countries (HICs). The disparities in the injury incidence and outcome between LMICs and resource-rich settings have led to increased health outcomes research for TBIs and their associated risk factors in LMICs. While there have been increasing TBI studies in LMICs over the last decade, there is still a need for more robust prospective registries. In Uganda, a trauma registry implemented in 2004 at the Mulago National Referral Hospital (MNRH) showed that RTI is the major contributor (60%) of overall mortality in the casualty department. While the prior registry provides information on injury incidence and burden, it’s limited in scope and doesn’t follow patients longitudinally throughout their hospital stay nor does it focus specifically on TBIs. And although these retrospective analyses are helpful for benchmarking TBI outcomes, they make it hard to identify specific quality improvement initiatives. The relationship among epidemiology, patient risk factors, clinical care, and TBI outcomes are still relatively unknown at MNRH. Objective: The objectives of this study are to describe the processes of care and determine risk factors predictive of poor outcomes for TBI patients presenting to a single tertiary hospital in Uganda. Methods: Prospective data were collected for 563 TBI patients presenting to a tertiary hospital in Kampala from 1 June – 30 November 2016. Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) was used to systematically collect variables spanning 8 categories. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted to determine significant predictors of mortality. Results: 563 TBI patients were enrolled from 1 June – 30 November 2016. 102 patients (18%) received surgery, 29 patients (5.1%) intended for surgery failed to receive it, and 251 patients (45%) received non-operative management. Overall mortality was 9.6%, which ranged from 4.7% for mild and moderate TBI to 55% for severe TBI patients with GCS 3-5. Within each TBI severity category, mortality differed by management pathway. Variables predictive of mortality were TBI severity, more than one intracranial bleed, failure to receive surgery, high dependency unit admission, ventilator support outside of surgery, and hospital arrival delayed by more than 4 hours. Conclusions: The overall mortality rate of 9.6% in Uganda for TBI is high, and likely underestimates the true TBI mortality. Furthermore, the wide-ranging mortality (3-82%), high ICU fatality, and negative impact of care delays suggest shortcomings with the current triaging practices. Lack of surgical intervention when needed was highly predictive of mortality in TBI patients. Further research into the determinants of surgical interventions, quality of step-up care, and prolonged care delays are needed to better understand the complex interplay of variables that affect patient outcome. These insights guide the development of future interventions and resource allocation to improve patient outcomes.

Keywords: care continuum, global neurosurgery, Kampala Uganda, LMIC, Mulago, prospective registry, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Demetrio L. Valle Jr., Juliana Janet M. Puzon, Windell L. Rivera

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From the various medicinal plants available in the Philippines, crude ethanol extracts of twelve (12) Philippine medicinal plants, namely: Senna alata L. Roxb. (akapulko), Psidium guajava L. (bayabas), Piper betle L. (ikmo), Vitex negundo L. (lagundi), Mitrephora lanotan (Blanco) Merr. (Lanotan), Zingiber officinale Roscoe (luya), Curcuma longa L. (Luyang dilaw), Tinospora rumphii Boerl (Makabuhay), Moringga oleifera Lam. (malunggay), Phyllanthus niruri L. (sampa-sampalukan), Centella asiatica (L.) Urban (takip kuhol), and Carmona retusa (Vahl) Masam (tsaang gubat) were studied. In vitro methods of evaluation against selected Gram-positive and Gram-negative multidrug-resistant (MDR), bacteria were performed on the plant extracts. Although five of the plants showed varying antagonistic activities against the test organisms, only Piper betle L. exhibited significant activities against both Gram-negative and Gram-positive multidrug-resistant bacteria, exhibiting wide zones of growth inhibition in the disk diffusion assay, and with the lowest concentrations of the extract required to inhibit the growth of the bacteria, as supported by the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC) assays. Further antibacterial studies of the Piper betle L. leaf, obtained by three extraction methods (ethanol, methanol, supercritical CO2), revealed similar inhibitory activities against a multitude of Gram-positive and Gram-negative MDR bacteria. Thin layer chromatography (TLC) assay of the leaf extract revealed a maximum of eight compounds with Rf values of 0.92, 0.86, 0.76, 0.53, 0.40, 0.25, 0.13, and 0.013, best visualized when inspected under UV-366 nm. TLC- agar overlay bioautography of the isolated compounds showed the compounds with Rf values of 0.86 and 0.13 having inhibitory activities against Gram-positive MDR bacteria (MRSA and VRE). The compound with an Rf value of 0.86 also possesses inhibitory activity against Gram-negative MDR bacteria (CRE Klebsiella pneumoniae and MBL Acinetobacter baumannii). Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) was able to identify six volatile compounds, four of which are new compounds that have not been mentioned in the medical literature. The chemical compounds isolated include 4-(2-propenyl)phenol and eugenol; and the new four compounds were ethyl diazoacetate, tris(trifluoromethyl)phosphine, heptafluorobutyrate, and 3-fluoro-2-propynenitrite. Phytochemical screening and investigation of its antioxidant, cytotoxic, possible hemolytic activities, and mechanisms of antibacterial activity were also done. The results showed that the local variant of Piper betle leaf extract possesses significant antioxidant, anti-cancer and antimicrobial properties, attributed to the presence of bioactive compounds, particularly of flavonoids (condensed tannin, leucoanthocyanin, gamma benzopyrone), anthraquinones, steroids/triterpenes and 2-deoxysugars. Piper betle L. is also traditionally known to enhance wound healing, which could be primarily due to its antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and antimicrobial activities. In vivo studies on mice using 2.5% and 5% of the ethanol leaf extract cream formulations in the excised wound models significantly increased the process of wound healing in the mice subjects, the results and values of which are at par with the current antibacterial cream (Mupirocin). From the results of the series of studies, we have definitely proven the value of Piper betle L. as a source of bioactive compounds that could be developed into therapeutic agents against MDR bacteria.

Keywords: Philippine herbal medicine, multidrug-resistant bacteria, Piper betle, TLC-bioautography

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Authors: Leo Byrne, Neil Watts

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In the complex and evolving landscape of global trade, maritime sanctions emerge as a critical tool wielded by the international community to curb illegal activities and alter the behavior of non-compliant states and entities. These sanctions, designed to restrict or prohibit trade by sea with sanctioned jurisdictions, entities, or individuals, face continuous challenges due to the sophisticated evasion tactics employed by countries like North Korea. As the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) diverts significant resources to circumvent these measures, understanding the nuances of their methodologies becomes imperative for maintaining the integrity of global trade systems. The DPRK, one of the most sanctioned nations globally, has developed an intricate network to facilitate its trade in illicit goods, ensuring the flow of revenue from designated activities continues unabated. Given its geographic and economic conditions, North Korea predominantly relies on maritime routes, utilizing foreign ports to route its illicit trade. This reliance on the sea is exploited through various sophisticated methods, including the use of front companies, falsification of documentation, commingling of bulk cargos, and physical alterations to vessels. These tactics enable the DPRK to navigate through the gaps in regulatory frameworks and lax oversight, effectively undermining international sanctions regimes Maritime sanctions carry significant implications for global trade, imposing heightened risks in the maritime domain. The deceptive practices employed not only by the DPRK but also by other high-risk jurisdictions, necessitate a comprehensive understanding of UN targeted sanctions. For stakeholders in the maritime sector—including maritime authorities, vessel owners, shipping companies, flag registries, and financial institutions serving the shipping industry—awareness and compliance are paramount. Violations can lead to severe consequences, including reputational damage, sanctions, hefty fines, and even imprisonment. To mitigate risks associated with these deceptive practices, it is crucial for maritime sector stakeholders to employ rigorous due diligence and regulatory compliance screening measures. Effective sanctions compliance serves as a protective shield against legal, financial, and reputational risks, preventing exploitation by international bad actors. This requires not only a deep understanding of the sanctions landscape but also the capability to identify and manage risks through informed decision-making and proactive risk management practices. As the DPRK and other sanctioned entities continue to evolve their sanctions evasion tactics, the international community must enhance its collective efforts to demystify and counter these practices. By leveraging more stringent compliance measures, stakeholders can safeguard against the illicit use of the maritime domain, reinforcing the effectiveness of maritime sanctions as a tool for global security. This paper seeks to dissect North Korea's adaptive strategies in the face of maritime sanctions. By examining up-to-date, geographically, and temporally relevant case studies, it aims to shed light on the primary nodes through which Pyongyang evades sanctions and smuggles goods via third-party ports. The goal is to propose multi-level interaction strategies, ranging from governmental interventions to localized enforcement mechanisms, to counteract these evasion tactics.

Keywords: maritime, maritime sanctions, international sanctions, compliance, risk

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Authors: V. Howard, R. Maguire, S. Corrigan

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Background: Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) is a chronic autoimmune disease, typically diagnosed in childhood. T1D puts an enormous strain on families; controlling blood-glucose in children is difficult and the consequences of poor control for patient health are significant. Successful illness management and better health outcomes can be dependent on quality of caregiving. On diagnosis, parent-caregivers face a steep learning curve as T1D care requires a significant level of knowledge to inform complex decision making throughout the day. The majority of illness management is carried out in the home setting, independent of clinical health providers. Parent-caregivers vary in their level of knowledge and their level of engagement in applying this knowledge in the practice of illness management. Enabling researchers to quantify these aspects of the caregiver experience is key to identifying targets for psychosocial support interventions, which are desirable for reducing stress and anxiety in this highly burdened cohort, and supporting better health outcomes in children. Currently, there are limited tools available that are designed to capture this information. Where tools do exist, they are not comprehensive and do not adequately capture the lived experience. Objectives: Development of quantitative tools, informed by lived experience, to enable researchers gather data on parent-caregiver knowledge and engagement, which accurately represents the experience/cohort and enables exploration of questions that are of real-world value to the cohort themselves. Methods: This research employed an engaged approach to address the problem of quantifying two key aspects of caregiver diabetes management: Knowledge and engagement. The research process was multi-staged and iterative. Stage 1: Working from a constructivist standpoint, literature was reviewed to identify relevant questionnaires, scales and single-item measures of T1D caregiver knowledge and engagement, and harvest candidate questionnaire items. Stage 2: Aggregated findings from the review were circulated among a PPI (patient and public involvement) expert panel of caregivers (n=6), for discussion and feedback. Stage 3: In collaboration with the expert panel, data were interpreted through the lens of lived experience to create a long-list of candidate items for novel questionnaires. Items were categorized as either ‘knowledge’ or ‘engagement’. Stage 4: A Delphi-method process (iterative surveys) was used to prioritize question items and generate novel questions that further captured the lived experience. Stage 5: Both questionnaires were piloted to refine wording of text to increase accessibility and limit socially desirable responding. Stage 6: Tools were piloted using an online survey that was deployed using an online peer-support group for caregivers for Juveniles with T1D. Ongoing Research: 123 parent-caregivers completed the survey. Data analysis is ongoing to establish face and content validity qualitatively and through exploratory factor analysis. Reliability will be established using an alternative-form method and Cronbach’s alpha will assess internal consistency. Work will be completed by early 2024. Conclusion: These tools will enable researchers to gain deeper insights into caregiving practices among parents of juveniles with T1D. Development was driven by lived experience, illustrating the value of engaged research at all levels of the research process.

Keywords: caregiving, engaged research, juvenile type 1 diabetes, quantified engagement and knowledge

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Authors: Todd H. Buxton, Yong G. Lai

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Temperature management in regulated rivers can involve significant expenditures of water to meet the cold-water requirements of species in summer. For this purpose, flows released from Lewiston Dam on the Trinity River in Northern California are 12.7 cms with temperatures around 11oC in July through September to provide adult spring Chinook cold water to hold in deep pools and mature until spawning in fall. The releases are more than double the flow and 10oC colder temperatures than the natural conditions before the dam was built. The high, cold releases provide springers the habitat they require but may suppress the stream food base and limit future populations of salmon by reducing the juvenile fish size and survival to adults via the positive relationship between the two. Field and modeling research was undertaken to explore whether lowering summer releases from Lewiston Dam may promote thermal stratification in river pools so that both the cold-water needs of adult salmon and warmer water requirements of other organisms in the stream biome may be met. For this investigation, a three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed and validated with field measurements in two deep pools on the Trinity River. Modeling and field observations were then used to identify the flows and temperatures that may form and maintain thermal stratification under different meteorologic conditions. Under low flows, a pool was found to be well mixed and thermally homogenous until temperatures began to stratify shortly after sunrise. Stratification then strengthened through the day until shading from trees and mountains cooled the inlet flow and decayed the thermal gradient, which collapsed shortly before sunset and returned the pool to a well-mixed state. This diurnal process of stratification formation and destruction was closely predicted by the 3D CFD model. Both the model and field observations indicate that thermal stratification maintained the coldest temperatures of the day at ≥2m depth in a pool and provided water that was around 8oC warmer in the upper 2m of the pool. Results further indicate that the stratified pool under low flows provided almost the same daily average temperatures as when flows were an order of magnitude higher and stratification was prevented, indicating significant water savings may be realized in regulated streams while also providing a diversity in water temperatures the ecosystem requires. With confidence in the 3D CFD model, the model is now being applied to a dozen pools in the Trinity River to understand how pool bathymetry influences thermal stratification under variable flows and diurnal temperature variations. This knowledge will be used to expand the results to 52 pools in a 64 km reach below Lewiston Dam that meet the depth criteria (≥2 m) for spring Chinook holding. From this, rating curves will be developed to relate discharge to the volume of pool habitat that provides springers the temperature (<15.6oC daily average), velocity (0.15 to 0.4 m/s) and depths that accommodate the escapement target for spring Chinook (6,000 adults) under maximum fish densities measured in other streams (3.1 m3/fish) during the holding time of year (May through August). Flow releases that meet these goals will be evaluated for water savings relative to the current flow regime and their influence on indicator species, including the Foothill Yellow-Legged Frog, and aspects of the stream biome that support salmon populations, including macroinvertebrate production and juvenile Chinook growth rates.

Keywords: 3D CFD modeling, flow regulation, thermal stratification, chinook salmon, foothill yellow-legged frogs, water managment

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Authors: Marco F. Benaglia, Mei H. Chen, Kune M. Tsai, Chia H. Hung

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As societal and family structures, consumer dietary habits, and awareness about food safety and quality continue to evolve in most developed countries, the demand for refrigerated and frozen foods has been growing, and the issues related to their preservation have gained increasing attention. A well-established cold chain logistics system is essential to avoid any temperature abuse; therefore, assessing potential disruptions in the operational processes of cold chain logistics centers becomes pivotal. This study preliminarily employs HACCP to find disruption factors in cold chain logistics centers that may cause temperature abuse. Then, concept mapping is applied: selected experts engage in brainstorming sessions to identify any further factors. The panel consists of ten experts, including four from logistics and home delivery, two from retail distribution, one from the food industry, two from low-temperature logistics centers, and one from the freight industry. Disruptions include equipment-related aspects, human factors, management aspects, and process-related considerations. The areas of observation encompass freezer rooms, refrigerated storage areas, loading docks, sorting areas, and vehicle parking zones. The experts also categorize the disruption factors based on perceived similarities and build a similarity matrix. Each factor is evaluated for its impact, frequency, and investment importance. Next, multiple scale analysis, cluster analysis, and other methods are used to analyze these factors. Simultaneously, key disruption factors are identified based on their impact and frequency, and, subsequently, the factors that companies prioritize and are willing to invest in are determined by assessing investors’ risk aversion behavior. Finally, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is applied to verify the risk patterns. 66 disruption factors are found and categorized into six clusters: (1) "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities", (2) "Inadequate Management and Operational Negligence", (3) "Product Characteristics Affecting Quality and Inappropriate Packaging", (4) "Poor Control of Operation Timing and Missing Distribution Processing", (5) "Inadequate Planning for Peak Periods and Poor Process Planning", and (6) "Insufficient Cold Chain Awareness and Inadequate Training of Personnel". This study also identifies five critical factors in the operational processes of cold chain logistics centers: "Lack of Personnel’s Awareness Regarding Cold Chain Quality", "Personnel Not Following Standard Operating Procedures", "Personnel’s Operational Negligence", "Management’s Inadequacy", and "Lack of Personnel’s Knowledge About Cold Chain". The findings show that cold chain operators prioritize prevention and improvement efforts in the "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities" cluster, particularly focusing on the factors of "Temperature Setting Errors" and "Management’s Inadequacy". However, through the application of CPT theory, this study reveals that companies are not usually willing to invest in the improvement of factors related to the "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities" cluster due to its low occurrence likelihood, but they acknowledge the severity of the consequences if it does occur. Hence, the main implication is that the key disruption factors in cold chain logistics centers’ processes are associated with personnel issues; therefore, comprehensive training, periodic audits, and the establishment of reasonable incentives and penalties for both new employees and managers may significantly reduce disruption issues.

Keywords: concept mapping, cold chain, HACCP, cumulative prospect theory

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Authors: Mireille Elhajj, Washington Ochieng, Deeph Chana

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The challenges of the rapid growth in the demand for transport has traditionally been seen within the context of the problems of congestion, air quality, climate change, safety, and affordability. However, there are increasing threats including those related to crime such as cyber-attacks that threaten the security of the transport of people and goods. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents for the first time, a comprehensive framework for the assessment of the current and future security issues of multi-modal transport systems. The approach or method proposed is based on a structured framework starting with a detailed specification of the transport asset map (transport system architecture), followed by the identification of vulnerabilities. The asset map and vulnerabilities are used to identify the various approaches for exploitation of the vulnerabilities, leading to the creation of a set of threat scenarios. The threat scenarios are then transformed into risks and their categories, and include insights for their mitigation. The consideration of the mitigation space is holistic and includes the formulation of appropriate policies and tactics and/or technical interventions. The quality of the framework is ensured through a structured and logical process that identifies the stakeholders, reviews the relevant documents including policies and identifies gaps, incorporates targeted surveys to augment the reviews, and uses subject matter experts for validation. The approach to categorising security risks is an extension of the current methods that are typically employed. Specifically, the partitioning of risks into either physical or cyber categories is too limited for developing mitigation policies and tactics/interventions for transport systems where an interplay between physical and cyber processes is very often the norm. This interplay is rapidly taking on increasing significance for security as the emergence of cyber-physical technologies, are shaping the future of all transport modes. Examples include: Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) in road transport; the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) in rail transport; Automatic Identification System (AIS) in maritime transport; advanced Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) technologies in air transport; and the Internet of Things (IoT). The framework adopts a risk categorisation scheme that considers risks as falling within the following threat→impact relationships: Physical→Physical, Cyber→Cyber, Cyber→Physical, and Physical→Cyber). Thus the framework enables a more complete risk picture to be developed for today’s transport systems and, more importantly, is readily extendable to account for emerging trends in the sector that will define future transport systems. The framework facilitates the audit and retro-fitting of mitigations in current transport operations and the analysis of security management options for the next generation of Transport enabling strategic aspirations such as systems with security-by-design and co-design of safety and security to be achieved. An initial application of the framework to transport systems has shown that intra-modal consideration of security measures is sub-optimal and that a holistic and multi-modal approach that also addresses the intersections/transition points of such networks is required as their vulnerability is high. This is in-line with traveler-centric transport service provision, widely accepted as the future of mobility services. In summary, a risk-based framework is proposed for use by the stakeholders to comprehensively and holistically assess the security of transport systems. It requires a detailed understanding of the transport architecture to enable a detailed vulnerabilities analysis to be undertaken, creates threat scenarios and transforms them into risks which form the basis for the formulation of interventions.

Keywords: mitigations, risk, transport, security, vulnerabilities

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Authors: Sam Weber, Deepak Mishra, Susan Wilde, Elizabeth Kramer

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The frequency and severity of cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) have been increasing over time, with point and non-point source eutrophication and shifting climate paradigms being blamed as the primary culprits. Excessive nutrients, warm temperatures, quiescent water, and heavy and less regular rainfall create more conducive environments for CyanoHABs. CyanoHABs have the potential to produce a spectrum of toxins that cause gastrointestinal stress, organ failure, and even death in humans and animals. To promote enhanced, proactive CyanoHAB management, risk modeling using geospatial tools can act as predictive mechanisms to supplement current CyanoHAB monitoring, management and mitigation efforts. The risk maps would empower water managers to focus their efforts on high risk water bodies in an attempt to prevent CyanoHABs before they occur, and/or more diligently observe those waterbodies. For this research, exploratory spatial data analysis techniques were used to identify the strongest predicators for CyanoHAB blooms based on remote sensing-derived cyanobacteria cell density values for 771 waterbodies in the Georgia Piedmont and landscape characteristics of their watersheds. In-situ datasets for cyanobacteria cell density, nutrients, temperature, and rainfall patterns are not widely available, so free gridded geospatial datasets were used as proxy variables for assessing CyanoHAB risk. For example, the percent of a watershed that is agriculture was used as a proxy for nutrient loading, and the summer precipitation within a watershed was used as a proxy for water quiescence. Cyanobacteria cell density values were calculated using atmospherically corrected images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2A satellite and multispectral instrument sensor at a 10-meter ground resolution. Seventeen explanatory variables were calculated for each watershed utilizing the multi-petabyte geospatial catalogs available within the Google Earth Engine cloud computing interface. The seventeen variables were then used in a multiple linear regression model, and the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density were selected for the final regression model. The seventeen explanatory variables included land cover composition, winter and summer temperature and precipitation data, topographic derivatives, vegetation index anomalies, and soil characteristics. Watershed maximum summer temperature, percent agriculture, percent forest, percent impervious, and waterbody area emerged as the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.31 and a p-value ~ 0. The final regression equation was used to make a normalized cyanobacteria cell density index, and a Jenks Natural Break classification was used to assign waterbodies designations of low, medium, or high risk. Of the 771 waterbodies, 24.38% were low risk, 37.35% were medium risk, and 38.26% were high risk. This study showed that there are significant relationships between free geospatial datasets representing summer maximum temperatures, nutrient loading associated with land use and land cover, and the area of a waterbody with cyanobacteria cell density. This data analytics approach to CyanoHAB risk assessment corroborated the literature-established environmental triggers for CyanoHABs, and presents a novel approach for CyanoHAB risk mapping in waterbodies across the greater southeastern United States.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, land use/land cover, remote sensing, risk mapping

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Authors: Eunjung Lee

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This research investigates the intricate connection between cultural differences and online consumer behaviors by integrating Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions theory with analysis methodologies such as text mining, data mining, and topic analysis. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive understanding of how national cultural differences influence individuals' behaviors when engaging with online reviews. To ensure the relevance of our investigation, we systematically analyze and interpret the cultural nuances influencing online consumer behaviors, especially in the context of online reviews. By anchoring our research in Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions theory, we seek to offer valuable insights for marketers to tailor their strategies based on the cultural preferences of diverse global consumer bases. In our methodology, we employ advanced text mining techniques to extract insights from a diverse range of online reviews gathered globally for a specific product or service like Netflix. This approach allows us to reveal hidden cultural cues in the language used by consumers from various backgrounds. Complementing text mining, data mining techniques are applied to extract meaningful patterns from online review datasets collected from different countries, aiming to unveil underlying structures and gain a deeper understanding of the impact of cultural differences on online consumer behaviors. The study also integrates topic analysis to identify recurring subjects, sentiments, and opinions within online reviews. Marketers can leverage these insights to inform the development of culturally sensitive strategies, enhance target audience segmentation, and refine messaging approaches aligned with cultural preferences. Anchored in Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions theory, our research employs sophisticated methodologies to delve into the intricate relationship between cultural differences and online consumer behaviors. Applied to specific cultural dimensions, such as individualism vs. collectivism, masculinity vs. femininity, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term vs. short-term orientation, the study uncovers nuanced insights. For example, in exploring individualism vs. collectivism, we examine how reviewers from individualistic cultures prioritize personal experiences while those from collectivistic cultures emphasize communal opinions. Similarly, within masculinity vs. femininity, we investigate whether distinct topics align with cultural notions, such as robust features in masculine cultures and user-friendliness in feminine cultures. Examining information-seeking behaviors under uncertainty avoidance reveals how cultures differ in seeking detailed information or providing succinct reviews based on their comfort with ambiguity. Additionally, in assessing long-term vs. short-term orientation, the research explores how cultural focus on enduring benefits or immediate gratification influences reviews. These concrete examples contribute to the theoretical enhancement of Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions theory, providing a detailed understanding of cultural impacts on online consumer behaviors. As online reviews become increasingly crucial in decision-making, this research not only contributes to the academic understanding of cultural influences but also proposes practical recommendations for enhancing online review systems. Marketers can leverage these findings to design targeted and culturally relevant strategies, ultimately enhancing their global marketing effectiveness and optimizing online review systems for maximum impact.

Keywords: comparative analysis, cultural dimensions, marketing intelligence, national culture, online consumer behavior, text mining

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Authors: Chusit Apirumanekul, Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa, Ratchapat Ratanavaraha, Yanyong Inmuong

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Rapid economic development in the Lower Mekong region is leading to changes in water quantity and quality. Changes in land- and forest-use, infrastructure development, increasing urbanization, migration patterns and climate risks are increasing demands for water, within various sectors, placing pressure on scarce water resources. Appropriate policies, strategies, and planning are urgently needed for improved water resource management. Over the last decade, Thailand has experienced more frequent and intense drought situations, affecting the level of water storage in reservoirs along with insufficient water allocation for agriculture during the dry season. The Huay Saibat River Basin, one of the well-known water-scarce areas in the northeastern region of Thailand, is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that affects both farming livelihoods and household consumption. Drought management in Thailand mainly focuses on emergency responses, rather than advance preparation and mitigation for long-term solutions. Despite many efforts from local authorities to mitigate the drought situation, there is yet no long-term comprehensive water management strategy, that integrates climate risks alongside other uncertainties. This paper assesses the application in the Huay Saibat River Basin, of the Robust Decision Support framework, to explore the feasibility of multiple drought management policies; including a shift in cropping season, in crop changes, in infrastructural operations and in the use of groundwater, under a wide range of uncertainties, including climate and land-use change. A series of consultative meetings were organized with relevant agencies and experts at the local level, to understand and explore plausible water resources strategies and identify thresholds to evaluate the performance of those strategies. Three different climate conditions were identified (dry, normal and wet). Other non-climatic factors influencing water allocation were further identified, including changes from sugarcane to rubber, delaying rice planting, increasing natural retention storage and using groundwater to supply demands for household consumption and small-scale gardening. Water allocation and water use in various sectors, such as in agriculture, domestic, industry and the environment, were estimated by utilising the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system, under various scenarios developed from the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors mentioned earlier. Water coverage (i.e. percentage of water demand being successfully supplied) was defined as a threshold for water resource strategy assessment. Thresholds for different sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry, and environment) were specified during multi-stakeholder engagements. Plausible water strategies (e.g. increasing natural retention storage, change of crop type and use of groundwater as an alternative source) were evaluated based on specified thresholds in 4 sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry, and environment) under 3 climate conditions. 'Business as usual' was evaluated for comparison. The strategies considered robust, emerge when performance is assessed as successful, under a wide range of uncertainties across the river basin. Without adopting any strategy, the water scarcity situation is likely to escalate in the future. Among the strategies identified, the use of groundwater as an alternative source was considered a potential option in combating water scarcity for the basin. Further studies are needed to explore the feasibility for groundwater use as a potential sustainable source.

Keywords: climate change, robust decision support, scenarios, water resources management

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Authors: Norma Kok, Diemo Masuko, Thandokazi Dlongwana, Komala Pillay

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CONTEXT: While many school principals have been outstanding teachers and have inherent leadership potential, many have not had access to the quality of leadership development or support that empowers them to produce high-quality education outcomes in extremely challenging circumstances. Further, school leaders in under-served communities face formidable challenges arising from insufficient infrastructure, overcrowded classrooms, socio-economic challenges within the community, and insufficient parental involvement, all of which put a strain on principals’ ability to lead their schools effectively. In addition few school leaders have access to other supportive networks, and many do not know how to build and leverage social capital to create opportunities for their schools and learners. Moreover, we know that fostering parental involvement in their children’s learning improves a child’s morale, attitude, and academic achievement across all subject areas, and promotes better behaviour and social adjustment. Citizen Leader Lab facilitates the Partners for Possibility (PfP) programme to provide leadership development and support to school leaders serving under-resourced communities in South Africa to create effective environments of learning. This is done by creating partnerships between school leaders and private-sector business leaders over a 12-month period. (185) OBJECTIVES: To explore school leaders’ perceptions of their leadership capacities and changes at their schools after being exposed to a year-long leadership development training programme. METHODS: School leaders gained new leadership capacities e.g. resilience, improved confidence, communication and conflict resolution skills - catalysing into improved cultures of collaborative decision-making and environments for enhanced teaching and learningprogramme based on the 70:20:10 model whereby: 10% of learning comes from workshops, 20% of learning takes place through peer learning and 70% of learning occurs through experiential learning as partnerships work together to identify and tackle challenges in targeted schools. Participants completed a post-programme questionnaire consisting of structured and unstructured questions and semi-structured interviews were conducted with them and their business leader. The interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and thematic content analysis was undertaken. The analysis was inductive and emerging themes were identified. A code list was generated after coding was undertaken using computer software (Dedoose). Quantitative data gathered from surveys was aggregated and analysed. RESULTS: School leadership found the programme interesting and rewarding. They gained new leadership capacities such as resilience, improved confidence, communication and conflict resolution skills - catalyzing into improved cultures of collaborative decision-making and environments for enhanced teaching and learning. New networks resulted in tangible outcomes such as upgrades to school infrastructure, water and sanitation, vegetable gardens at schools resulting in nutrition for learners and/or intangible outcomes such as skills for members of school management teams (SMTs). Collaborative leadership led to SMTs being more aligned, efficient, and cohesive; and teachers being more engaged and motivated. Notable positive changes at the school inspired parents and community members to become more actively involved in the school and in their children’s education. CONCLUSION: The PfP programme leads to improved leadership capacities and improved school culture which leads to improved teaching and learning and new resources for schools.

Keywords: collaborative decision-making, collaborative leadership, community involvement, confidence

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Authors: Nayer Mofidtabatabaei

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Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed various fields, including psychology and behavioral sciences. This paper explores the diverse ways in which AI is applied to enhance research, diagnosis, therapy, and understanding of human behavior and mental health. We discuss the potential benefits and challenges associated with AI in these fields, emphasizing the ethical considerations and the need for collaboration between AI researchers and psychological and behavioral science experts. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has gained prominence in recent years, revolutionizing multiple industries, including healthcare, finance, and entertainment. One area where AI holds significant promise is the field of psychology and behavioral sciences. AI applications in this domain range from improving the accuracy of diagnosis and treatment to understanding complex human behavior patterns. This paper aims to provide an overview of the various AI applications in psychological and behavioral sciences, highlighting their potential impact, challenges, and ethical considerations. Mental Health Diagnosis AI-driven tools, such as natural language processing and sentiment analysis, can analyze large datasets of text and speech to detect signs of mental health issues. For example, chatbots and virtual therapists can provide initial assessments and support to individuals suffering from anxiety or depression. Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) Diagnosis AI algorithms can assist in early ASD diagnosis by analyzing video and audio recordings of children's behavior. These tools help identify subtle behavioral markers, enabling earlier intervention and treatment. Personalized Therapy AI-based therapy platforms use personalized algorithms to adapt therapeutic interventions based on an individual's progress and needs. These platforms can provide continuous support and resources for patients, making therapy more accessible and effective. Virtual Reality Therapy Virtual reality (VR) combined with AI can create immersive therapeutic environments for treating phobias, PTSD, and social anxiety. AI algorithms can adapt VR scenarios in real-time to suit the patient's progress and comfort level. Data Analysis AI aids researchers in processing vast amounts of data, including survey responses, brain imaging, and genetic information. Privacy Concerns Collecting and analyzing personal data for AI applications in psychology and behavioral sciences raise significant privacy concerns. Researchers must ensure the ethical use and protection of sensitive information. Bias and Fairness AI algorithms can inherit biases present in training data, potentially leading to biased assessments or recommendations. Efforts to mitigate bias and ensure fairness in AI applications are crucial. Transparency and Accountability AI-driven decisions in psychology and behavioral sciences should be transparent and subject to accountability. Patients and practitioners should understand how AI algorithms operate and make decisions. AI applications in psychological and behavioral sciences have the potential to transform the field by enhancing diagnosis, therapy, and research. However, these advancements come with ethical challenges that require careful consideration. Collaboration between AI researchers and psychological and behavioral science experts is essential to harness AI's full potential while upholding ethical standards and privacy protections. The future of AI in psychology and behavioral sciences holds great promise, but it must be navigated with caution and responsibility.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, psychological sciences, behavioral sciences, diagnosis and therapy, ethical considerations

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Authors: Georgina Cherry, Taranpreet Rai, Luke Boyden, Sitira Williams, Andrea Wright, Richard Brown, Viva Chu, Alasdair Cook, Kevin Wells

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Estimating population-level burden, abilities of pet-parents to identify disease and demand for veterinary services worldwide is challenging. The purpose of this study is to compare a feline pruritus survey with social media listening (SML) data discussing this condition. Surveys are expensive and labour intensive to analyse, but SML data is freeform and requires careful filtering for relevancy. This study considers data from a survey of owner-observed symptoms of 156 pruritic cats conducted using Pet Parade® and SML posts collected through web-scraping to gain insights into the characterisation and management of feline pruritus. SML posts meeting a feline body area, behaviour and symptom were captured and reviewed for relevance representing 1299 public posts collected from 2021 to 2023. The survey involved 1067 pet-parents who reported on pruritic symptoms in their cats. Among the observed cats, approximately 18.37% (n=196) exhibited at least one symptom. The most frequently reported symptoms were hair loss (9.2%), bald spots (7.3%) and infection, crusting, scaling, redness, scabbing, scaling, or bumpy skin (8.2%). Notably, bald spots were the primary symptom reported for short-haired cats, while other symptoms were more prevalent in medium and long-haired cats. Affected body areas, according to pet-parents, were primarily the head, face, chin, neck (27%), and the top of the body, along the spine (22%). 35% of all cats displayed excessive behaviours consistent with pruritic skin disease. Interestingly, 27% of these cats were perceived as non-symptomatic by their owners, suggesting an under-identification of itch-related signs. Furthermore, a significant proportion of symptomatic cats did not receive any skin disease medication, whether prescribed or over the counter (n=41). These findings indicate a higher incidence of pruritic skin disease in cats than recognized by pet owners, potentially leading to a lack of medical intervention for clinically symptomatic cases. The comparison between the survey and social media listening data revealed bald spots were reported in similar proportions in both datasets (25% in the survey and 28% in SML). Infection, crusting, scaling, redness, scabbing, scaling, or bumpy skin accounted for 31% of symptoms in the survey, whereas it represented 53% of relevant SML posts (excluding bumpy skin). Abnormal licking or chewing behaviours were mentioned by pet-parents in 40% of SML posts compared to 38% in the survey. The consistency in the findings of these two disparate data sources, including a complete overlap in affected body areas for the top 80% of social media listening posts, indicates minimal biases in each method, as significant biases would likely yield divergent results. Therefore, the strong agreement across pruritic symptoms, affected body areas, and reported behaviours enhances our confidence in the reliability of the findings. Moreover, the small differences identified between the datasets underscore the valuable insights that arise from utilising multiple data sources. These variations provide additional depth in characterising and managing feline pruritus, allowing for more comprehensive understanding of the condition. By combining survey data and social media listening, researchers can obtain a nuanced perspective and capture a wider range of experiences and perspectives, supporting informed decision-making in veterinary practice.

Keywords: social media listening, feline pruritus, surveys, felines, cats, pet owners

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Authors: Yasar Samet Gokceoglu, Ayse Nur Incesu, Furkan Okatar, Berk Nimetoglu, Serkan Bayram, Turgut Akgul

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Ankle syndesmosis injuries pose a significant challenge in orthopedic practice due to their potential for prolonged recovery and chronic ankle dysfunction. Accurate diagnosis and management of these injuries are essential for achieving optimal patient outcomes. The use of radiological methods, such as X-ray, computed tomography (CT), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), plays a vital role in the accurate diagnosis of syndesmosis injuries in the context of ankle fractures. Treatment options for ankle syndesmosis injuries vary, with surgical interventions such as screw fixation and suture-button implantation being commonly employed. The choice of treatment is influenced by the severity of the injury and the presence of associated fractures. Additionally, the mechanism of injury, such as pure syndesmosis injury or specific fracture types, can impact the stability and management of syndesmosis injuries. Ankle fractures with syndesmosis injury present a complex clinical scenario, requiring accurate diagnosis, appropriate reduction, and tailored management strategies. The interplay between the mechanism of injury, associated fractures, and treatment modalities significantly influences the outcomes of these challenging injuries. The long-term outcomes and patient satisfaction following ankle fractures with syndesmosis injury are crucial considerations in the field of orthopedics. Patient-reported outcome measures, such as the Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS), provide essential information about functional recovery and quality of life after these injuries. When diagnosing syndesmosis injuries, standard measurements, such as the medial clear space, tibiofibular overlap, tibiofibular clear space, anterior tibiofibular ratio (ATFR), and the anterior-posterior tibiofibular ratio (APTF), are assessed through radiographs and computed tomography (CT) scans. These parameters are critical in evaluating the presence and severity of syndesmosis injuries, enabling clinicians to choose the most appropriate treatment approach. Despite advancements in diagnostic imaging, challenges remain in accurately diagnosing and treating ankle syndesmosis injuries. Traditional diagnostic parameters, while beneficial, may not capture the full extent of the injury or provide sufficient information to guide therapeutic decisions. This gap highlights the need for exploring additional diagnostic parameters that could enhance the accuracy of syndesmosis injury diagnoses and inform treatment strategies more effectively. The primary goal of this research is to evaluate the usefulness of traditional radiographic measurements in comparison to new CT-based measurements for diagnosing ankle syndesmosis injuries. Specifically, this study aims to assess the accuracy of conventional parameters, including medial clear space, tibiofibular overlap, tibiofibular clear space, ATFR, and APTF, in contrast with the recently proposed CT-based measurements such as the delta and gamma angles. Moreover, the study intends to explore the relationship between these diagnostic parameters and functional outcomes, as measured by the Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS). Establishing a correlation between specific diagnostic measurements and FAOS scores will enable us to identify the most reliable predictors of functional recovery following syndesmosis injuries. This comparative analysis will provide valuable insights into the accuracy and dependability of CT-based measurements in diagnosing ankle syndesmosis injuries and their potential impact on predicting patient outcomes. The results of this study could greatly influence clinical practices by refining diagnostic criteria and optimizing treatment planning for patients with ankle syndesmosis injuries.

Keywords: ankle syndesmosis injury, diagnostic accuracy, computed tomography, radiographic measurements, Tibiofibular syndesmosis distance

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Authors: Pei Yi Lin

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Objective: The objective of this study is to use machine learning methods to build an early prediction classifier model for acute delirium to improve the quality of medical care for intensive care patients. Background: Delirium is a common acute and sudden disturbance of consciousness in critically ill patients. After the occurrence, it is easy to prolong the length of hospital stay and increase medical costs and mortality. In 2021, the incidence of delirium in the intensive care unit of internal medicine was as high as 59.78%, which indirectly prolonged the average length of hospital stay by 8.28 days, and the mortality rate is about 2.22% in the past three years. Therefore, it is expected to build a delirium prediction classifier through big data analysis and machine learning methods to detect delirium early. Method: This study is a retrospective study, using the artificial intelligence big data database to extract the characteristic factors related to delirium in intensive care unit patients and let the machine learn. The study included patients aged over 20 years old who were admitted to the intensive care unit between May 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, excluding GCS assessment <4 points, admission to ICU for less than 24 hours, and CAM-ICU evaluation. The CAMICU delirium assessment results every 8 hours within 30 days of hospitalization are regarded as an event, and the cumulative data from ICU admission to the prediction time point are extracted to predict the possibility of delirium occurring in the next 8 hours, and collect a total of 63,754 research case data, extract 12 feature selections to train the model, including age, sex, average ICU stay hours, visual and auditory abnormalities, RASS assessment score, APACHE-II Score score, number of invasive catheters indwelling, restraint and sedative and hypnotic drugs. Through feature data cleaning, processing and KNN interpolation method supplementation, a total of 54595 research case events were extracted to provide machine learning model analysis, using the research events from May 01 to November 30, 2022, as the model training data, 80% of which is the training set for model training, and 20% for the internal verification of the verification set, and then from December 01 to December 2022 The CU research event on the 31st is an external verification set data, and finally the model inference and performance evaluation are performed, and then the model has trained again by adjusting the model parameters. Results: In this study, XG Boost, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Decision Tree were used to analyze and compare four machine learning models. The average accuracy rate of internal verification was highest in Random Forest (AUC=0.86), and the average accuracy rate of external verification was in Random Forest and XG Boost was the highest, AUC was 0.86, and the average accuracy of cross-validation was the highest in Random Forest (ACC=0.77). Conclusion: Clinically, medical staff usually conduct CAM-ICU assessments at the bedside of critically ill patients in clinical practice, but there is a lack of machine learning classification methods to assist ICU patients in real-time assessment, resulting in the inability to provide more objective and continuous monitoring data to assist Clinical staff can more accurately identify and predict the occurrence of delirium in patients. It is hoped that the development and construction of predictive models through machine learning can predict delirium early and immediately, make clinical decisions at the best time, and cooperate with PADIS delirium care measures to provide individualized non-drug interventional care measures to maintain patient safety, and then Improve the quality of care.

Keywords: critically ill patients, machine learning methods, delirium prediction, classifier model

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Authors: Patricia Shirley Almeida Prado, Selma Paixão Argollo, Maria De Fátima Teixeira Guimarães, Leticia Matos Sobrinho

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Skeletal differential diagnosis is essential in forensic anthropology in order to differentiate skeletal trauma from normal osseous variation and pathological processes. Thus, part of forensic anthropological field is differentiate skeletal criminal injuries from the normal skeletal variation (bone fusion or nonunion, transitional vertebrae and other non-metric traits), non-traumatic skeletal pathology (myositis ossificans, arthritis, bone metastasis, osteomyelitis) from traumatic skeletal pathology (myositis ossificans traumatic) avoiding misdiagnosis. This case shows the importance of effective pathological diagnosis in order to accelerate the identification process of skeletonized human remains. THE CASE: An unidentified skeletal remains at the medico legal institute Nina Rodrigues-Salvador, of a male young adult (29 to 40 years estimated) showing a massive heterotopic ossification on its right tibia at upper epiphysis and adjacent articular femur surface; an extensive ossification on the right clavicle (at the sternal extremity) also presenting an heterotopic ossification at right scapulae (upper third of scapulae lateral margin and infraglenoid tubercule) and at the head of right humerus at the shoulder joint area. Curiously, this case also shows an unusual porosity in certain vertebrae´s body and in some tarsal and carpal bones. Likewise, his left fifth metacarpal bones (right and left) showed a healed fracture which led both bones distorted. Based on identification, of pathological conditions in human skeletal remains literature and protocols these alterations can be misdiagnosed and this skeleton may present more than one pathological process. The anthropological forensic lab at Medico-legal Institute Nina Rodrigues in Salvador (Brazil) adopts international protocols to ancestry, sex, age and stature estimations, also implemented well-established conventions to identify pathological disease and skeletal alterations. The most compatible diagnosis for this case is hematogenous osteomyelitis due to following findings: 1: the healed fracture pattern at the clavicle showing a cloaca which is a pathognomonic for osteomyelitis; 2: the metacarpals healed fracture does not present cloaca although they developed a periosteal formation. 3: the superior articular surface of the right tibia shows an extensive inflammatory healing process that extends to adjacent femur articular surface showing some cloaca at tibia bone disease. 4: the uncommon porosities may result from hematogenous infectious process. The fractures probably have occurred in a different moments based on the healing process; the tibia injury is more extensive and has not been reorganized, while metacarpals and clavicle fracture is properly healed. We suggest that the clavicle and tibia´s fractures were infected by an existing infectious disease (syphilis, tuberculosis, brucellosis) or an existing syndrome (Gorham’s disease), which led to the development of osteomyelitis. This hypothesis is supported by the fact that different bones are affected in diverse levels. Like the metacarpals that do not show the cloaca, but then a periosteal new bone formation; then the unusual porosities do not show a classical osteoarthritic processes findings as the marginal osteophyte, pitting and new bone formation, they just show an erosive process without bone formation or osteophyte. To confirm and prove our hypothesis we are working on different clinical approaches like DNA, histopathology and other image exams to find the correct diagnostic.

Keywords: bone disease, forensic anthropology, hematogenous osteomyelitis, human identification, human remains

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Authors: Philipp Sommer, Amgad Agoub

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The construction sector significantly impacts global CO₂ emissions, particularly through the energy usage of residential buildings. To address this, various governments, including Germany's, are focusing on reducing emissions via sustainable refurbishment initiatives. This study examines the application of machine learning (ML) to estimate energy demands dynamically in residential buildings and enhance the potential for large-scale sustainable refurbishment. A major challenge in Germany is the lack of extensive publicly labeled datasets for energy performance, as energy performance certificates, which provide critical data on building-specific energy requirements and consumption, are not available for all buildings or require on-site inspections. Conversely, England and other countries in the European Union (EU) have rich public datasets, providing a viable alternative for analysis. This research adapts insights from these English datasets to the German context by developing a comprehensive data schema and calibration dataset capable of predicting building energy demand effectively. The study proposes a minimal feature set, determined through feature importance analysis, to optimize the ML model. Findings indicate that ML significantly improves the scalability and accuracy of energy demand forecasts, supporting more effective emissions reduction strategies in the construction industry. Integrating energy performance certificates into municipal heat planning in Germany highlights the transformative impact of data-driven approaches on environmental sustainability. The goal is to identify and utilize key features from open data sources that significantly influence energy demand, creating an efficient forecasting model. Using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and data from energy performance certificates, effective features such as building type, year of construction, living space, insulation level, and building materials were incorporated. These were supplemented by data derived from descriptions of roofs, walls, windows, and floors, integrated into three datasets. The emphasis was on features accessible via remote sensing, which, along with other correlated characteristics, greatly improved the model's accuracy. The model was further validated using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values and aggregated feature importance, which quantified the effects of individual features on the predictions. The refined model using remote sensing data showed a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.64 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.12, indicating predictions based on efficiency class 1-100 (G-A) may deviate by 4.12 points. This R² increased to 0.84 with the inclusion of more samples, with wall type emerging as the most predictive feature. After optimizing and incorporating related features like estimated primary energy consumption, the R² score for the training and test set reached 0.94, demonstrating good generalization. The study concludes that ML models significantly improve prediction accuracy over traditional methods, illustrating the potential of ML in enhancing energy efficiency analysis and planning. This supports better decision-making for energy optimization and highlights the benefits of developing and refining data schemas using open data to bolster sustainability in the building sector. The study underscores the importance of supporting open data initiatives to collect similar features and support the creation of comparable models in Germany, enhancing the outlook for environmental sustainability.

Keywords: machine learning, remote sensing, residential building, energy performance certificates, data-driven, heat planning

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Authors: Kimberly Winnie Achieng Otieno

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The Nairobi Hospital plays a pivotal role in healthcare provision in East and Central Africa, yet it faces challenges in providing accessible dialysis care. This paper explores strategic interventions to enhance dialysis care, improve access and streamline health information management, with an aim of fostering an integrated and patient-centered healthcare system in our region. Challenges at The Nairobi Hospital The Nairobi Hospital currently grapples with insufficient dialysis machines which results in extended turn around times. This issue stems from both staffing bottle necks and infrastructural limitations given our growing demand for renal care services. Our Paper-based record keeping system and fragmented flow of information downstream hinders the hospital’s ability to manage health data effectively. There is also a need for investment in expanding The Nairobi Hospital dialysis facilities to far reaching communities. Setting up satellite clinics that are closer to people who live in areas far from the main hospital will ensure better access to underserved areas. Community Outreach and Education Implementing education programs on kidney health within local communities is vital for early detection and prevention. Collaborating with local leaders and organizations can establish a proactive approach to renal health hence reducing the demand for acute dialysis interventions. We can amplify this effort by expanding The Nairobi Hospital’s corporate social responsibility outreach program with weekend engagement activities such as walks, awareness classes and fund drives. Enhancing Efficiency in Dialysis Care Demand for dialysis services continues to rise due to an aging Kenyan population and the increasing prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Present at this years International Nursing Conference are a diverse group of caregivers from around the world who can share with us their process optimization strategies, patient engagement techniques and resource utilization efficiencies to catapult The Nairobi Hospital to the 21st century and beyond. Plans are underway to offer ongoing education opportunities to keep staff updated on best practices and emerging technologies in addition to utilizing a patient feedback mechanisms to identify areas for improvement and enhance satisfaction. Staff empowerment and suggestion boxes address The Nairobi Hospital’s organizational challenges. Current financial constraints may limit a leapfrog in technology integration such as the acquisition of new dialysis machines and an investment in predictive analytics to forecast patient needs and optimize resource allocation. Streamlining Health Information Management Fully embracing a shift to 100% Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is a transformative step toward efficient health information management. Shared information promotes a holistic understanding of patients’ medical history, minimizing redundancies and enhancing overall care quality. To manage the transition to community-based care and EHRs effectively, a phased implementation approach is recommended. Conclusion By strategically enhancing dialysis care access and streamlining health information management, The Nairobi Hospital can strengthen its position as a leading healthcare institution in both East and Central Africa. This comprehensive approach aligns with the hospital’s commitment to providing high-quality, accessible, and patient-centered care in an evolving landscape of healthcare delivery.

Keywords: Africa, urology, diaylsis, healthcare

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Authors: Sitira Williams, Georgina Cherry, Andrea Wright, Kevin Wells, Taran Rai, Richard Brown, Travis Street, Alasdair Cook

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Social media sources (50) were identified, keywords defined by veterinarians and organised into 6 topics known to be indicative of feline pruritus: body areas, behaviors, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatments. These were augmented using academic literature, a cat owner survey, synonyms, and Google Trends. The content was collected using a social intelligence solution, with keywords tagged and filtered. Data were aggregated and de-duplicated. SL content matching body areas, behaviors and symptoms were reviewed manually, and posts were marked relevant if: posted by a pet owner, identifying an itchy cat and not duplicated. A sub-set of 493 posts published from 2009-2022 was used for reflexive thematic analysis in NVIVO (Burlington, MA) to identify themes. Five themes were identified: allergy, pruritus, additional behaviors, unusual or undesirable behaviors, diagnosis, and treatment. Most (258) posts reported the cat was excessively licking, itching, and scratching. The majority were indoor cats and were less playful and friendly when itchy. Half of these posts did not indicate a known cause of pruritus. Bald spots and scabs (123) were reported, often causing swelling and fur loss, and 56 reported bumps, lumps, and dry patches. Other impacts on the cat’s quality of life were ear mites, cat self-trauma and stress. Seven posts reported their cats’ symptoms caused them ongoing anxiety and depression. Cats with food allergies to poultry (often chicken and beef) causing bald spots featured in 23 posts. Veterinarians advised switching to a raw food diet and/or changing their bowls. Some cats got worse after switching, leaving owners’ needs unmet. Allergic reactions to flea bites causing excessive itching, red spots, scabs, and fur loss were reported in 13 posts. Some (3) posts indicated allergic reactions to medication. Cats with seasonal and skin allergies, causing sneezing, scratching, headshaking, watery eyes, and nasal discharge, were reported 17 times. Eighty-five posts identified additional behaviors. Of these, 13 reported their cat’s burst pimple or insect bite. Common behaviors were headshaking, rubbing, pawing at their ears, and aggressively chewing. In some cases, bites or pimples triggered previously unseen itchiness, making the cat irritable. Twenty-four reported their cat had anxiety: overgrooming, itching, losing fur, hiding, freaking out, breathing quickly, sleeplessness, hissing and vocalising. Most reported these cats as having itchy skin, fleas, and bumps. Cats were commonly diagnosed with an ear infection, ringworm, acne, or kidney disease. Acne was diagnosed in cats with an allergy flare-up or overgrooming. Ear infections were diagnosed in itchy cats with mites or other parasites. Of the treatments mentioned, steroids were most frequently used, then anti-parasitics, including flea treatments and oral medication (steroids, antibiotics). Forty-six posts reported distress following poor outcomes after medication or additional vet consultations. SL provides veterinarians with unique insights. Verbatim comments highlight the detrimental effects of pruritus on pets and owner quality of life. This study demonstrates the need for veterinarians to communicate management and treatment options more effectively to relieve owner frustrations. Data analysis could be scaled up using machine learning for topic modeling.

Keywords: content analysis, feline, itch, pruritus, social media, thematic analysis, veterinary dermatology

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Authors: Teesta Dey

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Integrated Transport development with proper traffic management leads to sustainable growth of any urban sphere. Appropriate mass transport planning is essential for the populous cities in third world countries like India. The exponential growth of motor vehicles with unplanned road network is now the common feature of major urban centres in India. Kolkata, the third largest mega city in India, is not an exception of it. The imbalance between demand and supply of unplanned transport services in this city is manifested in the high economic and environmental costs borne by the associated society. With the passage of time, the growth and extent of passenger demand for rapid urban transport has outstripped proper infrastructural planning and causes severe transport problems in the overall urban realm. Hence Kolkata stands out in the world as one of the most crisis-ridden metropolises. The urban transport crisis of this city involves severe traffic congestion, the disparity in mass transport services on changing peripheral land uses, route overlapping, lowering of travel speed and faulty implementation of governmental plans as mostly induced by rapid growth of private vehicles on limited road space with huge carbon footprint. Therefore the paper will critically analyze the extant road network pattern for improving regional connectivity and accessibility, assess the degree of congestion, identify the deviation from demand and supply balance and finally evaluate the emerging alternate transport options as promoted by the government. For this purpose, linear, nodal and spatial transport network have been assessed based on certain selected indices viz. Road Degree, Traffic Volume, Shimbel Index, Direct Bus Connectivity, Average Travel and Waiting Tine Indices, Route Variety, Service Frequency, Bus Intensity, Concentration Analysis, Delay Rate, Quality of Traffic Transmission, Lane Length Duration Index and Modal Mix. Total 20 Traffic Intersection Points (TIPs) have been selected for the measurement of nodal accessibility. Critical Congestion Zones (CCZs) are delineated based on one km buffer zones of each TIP for congestion pattern analysis. A total of 480 bus routes are assessed for identifying the deficiency in network planning. Apart from bus services, the combined effects of other mass and para transit modes, containing metro rail, auto, cab and ferry services, are also analyzed. Based on systematic random sampling method, a total of 1500 daily urban passengers’ perceptions were studied for checking the ground realities. The outcome of this research identifies the spatial disparity among the 15 boroughs of the city with severe route overlapping and congestion problem. North and Central Kolkata-based mass transport services exceed the transport strength of south and peripheral Kolkata. Faulty infrastructural condition, service inadequacy, economic loss and workers’ inefficiency are the most dominant reasons behind the defective mass transport network plan. Hence there is an urgent need to revive the extant road based mass transport system of this city by implementing a holistic management approach by upgrading traffic infrastructure, designing new roads, better cooperation among different mass transport agencies, better coordination of transport and changing land use policies, large increase in funding and finally general passengers’ awareness.

Keywords: carbon footprint, critical congestion zones, direct bus connectivity, integrated transport development

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Authors: Roven Tumaneng, Angelica Kristina Monzon, Ralph Sedricke Lapuz, Jose Don De Alban, Jennica Paula Masigan, Joanne Rae Pales, Laila Monera Pornel, Dennis Tablazon, Rizza Karen Veridiano, Jackie Lou Wenceslao, Edmund Leo Rico, Neil Aldrin Mallari

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Most protected area management plans in the Philippines, particularly the smaller and more remote islands suffer from insufficient baseline data, which should provide the bases for formulating measureable conservation targets and appropriate management interventions for these protected areas. Attempts to synthesize available data particularly on cultural and socio-economic characteristic of local peoples within and outside protected areas also suffer from the lack of comprehensive and detailed inventories, which should be considered in designing adaptive management interventions to be used for those protected areas. Mt Guiting-guiting Natural Park (MGGNP) located in Sibuyan Island is one of the poorly studied protected areas in the Philippines. In this study, we determined the highly biologically important areas of the protected area using Maximum Entropy approach (MaxEnt) from environmental predictors (i.e., topographic, bioclimatic,land cover, and soil image layers) derived from global remotely sensed data and point occurrence data of species of birds and trees recorded during field surveys on the island. A total of 23 trigger species of birds and trees was modeled and stacked to generate species richness maps for biological high conservation value areas (HCVAs). Forest habitat change was delineated using dual-polarised L-band ALOS-PALSAR mosaic data at 25 meter spatial resolution, taken at two acquisition years 2007 and 2009 to provide information on forest cover ad habitat change in the island between year 2007 and 2009. Determining the livelihood guilds were also conducted using the data gathered from171 household interviews, from which demographic and livelihood variables were extracted (i.e., age, gender, number of household members, educational attainment, years of residency, distance from forest edge, main occupation, alternative sources of food and resources during scarcity months, and sources of these alternative resources).Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Kruskal-Wallis test, the diversity and patterns of forest resource use by people in the island were determined with particular focus on the economic activities that directly and indirectly affect the population of key species as well as to identify levels of forest resource use by people in different areas of the park.Results showed that there are gaps in the area occupied by the natural park, as evidenced by the mismatch of the proposed HCVAs and the existing perimeters of the park. We found out that subsistence forest gathering was the possible main driver for forest degradation out of the eight livelihood guilds that were identified in the park. Determining the high conservation areas and identifyingthe anthropogenic factors that influence the species richness and abundance of key species in the different management zone of MGGNP would provide guidance for the design of a protected area management plan and future monitoring programs. However, through intensive communication and consultation with government stakeholders and local communities our results led to setting conservation targets in local development plans and serve as a basis for the reposition of the boundaries and reconfiguration of the management zones of MGGNP.

Keywords: conservation gaps, livelihood guilds, MaxEnt, protected area

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