Search results for: entrepreneurship decision making
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7307

Search results for: entrepreneurship decision making

887 Data Quality and Associated Factors on Regular Immunization Programme at Ararso District: Somali Region- Ethiopia

Authors: Eyob Seife, Molla Alemayaehu, Tesfalem Teshome, Bereket Seyoum, Behailu Getachew

Abstract:

Globally, immunization averts between 2 and 3 million deaths yearly, but Vaccine-Preventable Diseases still account for more in Sub-Saharan African countries and takes the majority of under-five deaths yearly, which indicates the need for consistent and on-time information to have evidence-based decision so as to save lives of these vulnerable groups. However, ensuring data of sufficient quality and promoting an information-use culture at the point of collection remains critical and challenging, especially in remote areas where the Ararso district is selected based on a hypothesis of there is a difference in reported and recounted immunization data consistency. Data quality is dependent on different factors where organizational, behavioral, technical and contextual factors are the mentioned ones. A cross-sectional quantitative study was conducted on September 2022 in the Ararso district. The study used the world health organization (WHO) recommended data quality self-assessment (DQS) tools. Immunization tally sheets, registers and reporting documents were reviewed at 4 health facilities (1 health center and 3 health posts) of primary health care units for one fiscal year (12 months) to determine the accuracy ratio, availability and timeliness of reports. The data was collected by trained DQS assessors to explore the quality of monitoring systems at health posts, health centers, and at the district health office. A quality index (QI), availability and timeliness of reports were assessed. Accuracy ratios formulated were: the first and third doses of pentavalent vaccines, fully immunized (FI), TT2+ and the first dose of measles-containing vaccines (MCV). In this study, facility-level results showed poor timeliness at all levels and both over-reporting and under-reporting were observed at all levels when computing the accuracy ratio of registration to health post reports found at health centers for almost all antigens verified. A quality index (QI) of all facilities also showed poor results. Most of the verified immunization data accuracy ratios were found to be relatively better than that of quality index and timeliness of reports. So attention should be given to improving the capacity of staff, timeliness of reports and quality of monitoring system components, namely recording, reporting, archiving, data analysis and using information for decisions at all levels, especially in remote and areas.

Keywords: accuracy ratio, ararso district, quality of monitoring system, regular immunization program, timeliness of reports, Somali region-Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 62
886 Stress-Strain Behavior of Banana Fiber Reinforced and Biochar Amended Compressed Stabilized Earth Blocks

Authors: Farnia Nayar Parshi, Mohammad Shariful Islam

Abstract:

Though earth construction is an ancient technology, researchers are working on increasing its strength by adding different types of stabilizers. Ordinary Portland cement for sandy soil and lime for clayey soil is very popular practice as well as recommended by various authorities for making stabilized blocks for satisfactory performance. The addition of these additives improves compressive strength but fails to improve ductility. The addition of both synthetic and natural fibers increases both compressive strength and ductility. Studies are conducted to make earth blocks more cost-effective, energy-efficient and sustainable. In this experiment, an agricultural waste banana fiber and biochar is used to study the compressive stress-strain behavior of earth blocks made with four types of soil low plastic clay, sandy low plastic clay, very fine sand and medium to fine sand. Biochar is a charcoal-like carbon usually produced from organic or agricultural waste in high temperatures through a controlled condition called pyrolysis. In this experimental study, biochar was collected from BBI (Bangladesh Biochar Initiative) produced from wood flakes around 400 deg. Celsius. Locally available PPC (Portland Pozzolana Cement) is used. 5 cm × 5 cm × 5 cm earth blocks were made with eight different combinations such as bare soil, soil with 6% cement, soil with 6% cement and 5% biochar, soil with 6% cement, 5% biochar and 1% fiber, soil with 1% fiber, soil with 5% biochar and 1% fiber and soil with 6% cement and 1% fiber. All samples were prepared with 10-12% water content. Uniaxial compressive strength tests were conducted on 21 days old earth blocks. Stress-strain diagram shows that the addition of banana fiber improved compressive strength drastically, but the combined effect of fiber and biochar is different based on different soil types. For clayey soil, 6% cement and 1% fiber give maximum compressive strength of 991 kPa, and for very fine sand, a combination of 5% biochar, 6% cement and 1% fiber gives maximum compressive strength of 522 kPa as well as ductility. For medium-to-find sand, 6% cement and 1% fiber give the best result, 1530 kPa, among other combinations. The addition of fiber increases not only ductility but also compressive strength as well. The effect of biochar with fiber varies with the soil type.

Keywords: banana fiber, biochar, cement, compressed stabilized earth blocks, compressive strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
885 Saving the Decolonized Subject from Neglected Tropical Diseases: Public Health Campaign and Household-Centred Sanitation in Colonial West Africa, 1900-1960

Authors: Adebisi David Alade

Abstract:

In pre-colonial West Africa, the deadliness of the climate vis-a- vis malaria and other tropical diseases to Europeans turned the region into the “white man’s grave.” Thus, immediately after the partition of Africa in 1885, civilisatrice and mise en valeur not only became a pretext for the establishment of colonial rule; from a medical point of view, the control and possible eradication of disease in the continent emerged as one of the first concerns of the European colonizers. Though geared toward making Africa exploitable, historical evidence suggests that some colonial Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) policies and projects reduced certain tropical diseases in some West African communities. Exploring some of these disease control interventions by way of historical revisionism, this paper challenges the orthodox interpretation of colonial sanitation and public health measures in West Africa. This paper critiques the deployment of race and class as analytical tools for the study of colonial WASH projects, an exercise which often reduces the complexity and ambiguity of colonialism to the binary of colonizer and the colonized. Since West Africa presently ranks high among regions with Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), it is imperative to decentre colonial racism and economic exploitation in African history in order to give room for Africans to see themselves in other ways. Far from resolving the problem of NTDs by fiat in the region, this study seeks to highlight important blind spots in African colonial history in an attempt to prevent post-colonial African leaders from throwing away the baby with the bath water. As scholars researching colonial sanitation and public health in the continent rarely examine its complex meaning and content, this paper submits that the outright demonization of colonial rule across space and time continues to build ideological wall between the present and the past which not only inhibit fruitful borrowing from colonial administration of West Africa, but also prevents a wide understanding of the challenges of WASH policies and projects in most West African states.

Keywords: colonial rule, disease control, neglected tropical diseases, WASH

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
884 Brand Resonance Strategy For Long-term Market Survival: Does The Brand Resonance Matter For Smes? An Investigation In Smes Digital Branding (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram And Blog) Activities And Strong Brand Development

Authors: Noor Hasmini Abd Ghani

Abstract:

Brand resonance is among of new focused strategy that getting more attention in nowadays by larger companies for their long-term market survival. The brand resonance emphasizing of two main characteristics that are intensity and activity able to generate psychology bond and enduring relationship between a brand and consumer. This strong attachment relationship has represented brand resonance with the concept of consumer brand relationship (CBR) that exhibit competitive advantage for long-term market survival. The main consideration toward this brand resonance approach is not only in the context of larger companies but also can be adapted in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as well. The SMEs have been recognized as vital pillar to the world economy in both developed and emergence countries are undeniable due to their economic growth contributions, such as opportunity for employment, wealth creation, and poverty reduction. In particular, the facts that SMEs in Malaysia are pivotal to the well-being of the Malaysian economy and society are clearly justified, where the SMEs competent in provided jobs to 66% of the workforce and contributed 40% to the GDP. As regards to it several sectors, the SMEs service category that covers the Food & Beverage (F&B) sector is one of the high-potential industries in Malaysia. For that reasons, SMEs strong brand or brand equity is vital to be developed for their long-term market survival. However, there’s still less appropriate strategies in develop their brand equity. The difficulties have never been so evident until Covid-19 swept across the globe from 2020. Since the pandemic began, more than 150,000 SMEs in Malaysia have shut down, leaving more than 1.2 million people jobless. Otherwise, as the SMEs are the pillar of any economy for the countries in the world, and with negative effect of COVID-19 toward their economic growth, thus, their protection has become important more than ever. Therefore, focusing on strategy that able to develop SMEs strong brand is compulsory. Hence, this is where the strategy of brand resonance is introduced in this study. Mainly, this study aims to investigate the impact of CBR as a predictor and mediator in the context of social media marketing (SMM) activities toward SMEs e-brand equity (or strong brand) building. The study employed the quantitative research design concerning on electronic survey method with the valid response rate of 300 respondents. Interestingly, the result revealed the importance role of CBR either as predictor or mediator in the context of SMEs SMM as well as brand equity development. Further, the study provided several theoretical and practical implications that can benefit the SMEs in enhancing their strategic marketing decision.

Keywords: SME brand equity, SME social media marketing, SME consumer brand relationship, SME brand resonance

Procedia PDF Downloads 57
883 Examining the Changes in Complexity, Accuracy, and Fluency in Japanese L2 Writing Over an Academic Semester

Authors: Robert Long

Abstract:

The results of a one-year study on the evolution of complexity, accuracy, and fluency (CAF) in the compositions of Japanese L2 university students throughout a semester are presented in this study. One goal was to determine if any improvement in writing abilities over this academic term had occurred, while another was to examine methods of editing. Participants had 30 minutes to write each essay with an additional 10 minutes allotted for editing. As for editing, participants were divided into two groups, one of which utilized an online grammar checker, while the other half self-edited their initial manuscripts. From the three different institutions, there was a total of 159 students. Research questions focused on determining if the CAF had evolved over the previous year, identifying potential variations in editing techniques, and describing the connections between the CAF dimensions. According to the findings, there was some improvement in accuracy (fewer errors) in all three of the measures), whereas there was a marked decline in complexity and fluency. As for the second research aim relating to the interaction among the three dimensions (CAF) and of possible increases in fluency being offset by decreases in grammatical accuracy, results showed (there is a logical high correlation with clauses and word counts, and mean length of T-unit (MLT) and (coordinate phrase of T-unit (CP/T) as well as MLT and clause per T-unit (C/T); furthermore, word counts and error/100 ratio correlated highly with error-free clause totals (EFCT). Issues of syntactical complexity had a negative correlation with EFCT, indicating that more syntactical complexity relates to decreased accuracy. Concerning a difference in error correction between those who self-edited and those who used an online grammar correction tool, results indicated that the variable of errors-free clause ratios (EFCR) had the greatest difference regarding accuracy, with fewer errors noted with writers using an online grammar checker. As for possible differences between the first and second (edited) drafts regarding CAF, results indicated there were positive changes in accuracy, the most significant change seen in complexity (CP/T and MLT), while there were relatively insignificant changes in fluency. Results also indicated significant differences among the three institutions, with Fujian University of Technology having the most fluency and accuracy. These findings suggest that to raise students' awareness of their overall writing development, teachers should support them in developing more complex syntactic structures, improving their fluency, and making more effective use of online grammar checkers.

Keywords: complexity, accuracy, fluency, writing

Procedia PDF Downloads 32
882 Human Rights in the United States: Challenges and Lessons from the Period 1948-2018

Authors: Mary Carmen Peloche Barrera

Abstract:

Since its early years as an independent nation, the United States has been one of the main promoters regarding the recognition, legislation, and protection of human rights. In the matter of freedom, the founding father Thomas Jefferson envisioned the role of the U.S. as a defender of freedom and equality throughout the world. This founding ideal shaped America’s domestic and foreign policy in the 19th and the 20th century and became an aspiration of the ideals of the country to expand its values and institutions. The history of the emergence of human rights cannot be studied without making reference to leaders such as Woodrow Wilson, Franklin, and Eleanor Roosevelt, as well as Martin Luther King. Throughout its history, this country has proclaimed that the protection of the freedoms of men, both inside and outside its borders, is practically the reason for its existence. Although the United States was one of the first countries to recognize the existence of inalienable rights for individuals, as well as the main promoter of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1948, the country has gone through critical moments that had led to questioning its commitment to the issue. Racial segregation, international military interventions, national security strategy, as well as national legislation on immigration, are some of the most controversial issues related to decisions and actions driven by the United States, which at the same time mismatched with its role as an advocate of human rights, both in the Americas and in the rest of the world. The aim of this paper is to study the swinging of the efforts and commitments of the United States towards human rights. The paper will analyze the history and evolution of human rights in the United States, to study the greatest challenges for the country in this matter. The paper will focus on both the domestic policy (related to demographic issues) and foreign policy (about its role in a post-war world). Currently, more countries are joining the multilateral efforts for the promotion and protection of human rights. At the same time, the United States is one of the least committed countries in this respect, having ratified only 5 of the 18 treaties emanating from the United Nations. The last ratification was carried out in 2002 and, since then, the country has been losing ground, in an increasingly vertiginous way, in its credibility and, even worse, in its role as leader of 'the free world'. With or without the United States, the protection of human rights should remain the main goal of the international community.

Keywords: United States, human rights, foreign policy, domestic policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 116
881 Evaluation of Sugarcane Straw Derived Biochar for the Remediation of Chromium and Nickel Contaminated Soil

Authors: Selam M. Tefera

Abstract:

Soil constitutes a crucial component of rural and urban environments. This fact is making role of heavy and trace elements in the soil system an issue of global concern. Heavy metals constitute an ill-defined group of inorganic chemical hazards, whose main source is anthropogenic activities mainly related to fabrications. This accumulation of heavy metals soils can prove toxic to the environment. The application of biochar to soil is one way of immobilizing these contaminants through sorption by exploiting the high surface area of this material among its other essential properties. This research examined the ability of sugar cane straw, an organic waste material from sugar farm, derived biochar and ash to remediate soil contaminated with heavy metals mainly Chromium and Zinc from the effluent of electroplating industry. Biochar was produced by varying the temperature from 300 °C to 500 °C and ash at 700 °C. The highest yield (50%) was obtained at the lowest temperature (300 °C). The proximate analysis showed ash content of 42.8%, ultimate analysis with carbon content of 67.18%, the Hydrogen to Carbon ratio of 0.54 and the results from FTIR analysis disclosed the organic nature of biochar. Methylene blue absorption indicated its fine surface area and pore structure, which increases with severity of temperature. Biochar was mixed with soil with at a ration varying from 4% w/w to 10% w/w of soil, and the response variables were determined at a time interval of 150 days, 180 days, and 210 days. As for ash (10% w/w), the characterization was performed at incubation time of 210 days. The results of pH indicated that biochar (9.24) had a notable liming capacity of acidic soil (4.8) by increasing it to 6.89 whereas ash increased it to 7.5. The immobilization capacity of biochar was found to effected mostly by the highest production temperature (500 °C), which was 75.5% for chromium and 80.5% for nickel. In addition, ash was shown to possess an outstanding immobilization capacity of 95.5% and 90.5% for Chromium and Nickel, respectively. All in all, the results from these methods showed that biochar produced from this specific biomass possesses the typical functional groups that enable it to store carbon, the appropriate pH that could remediate acidic soil, a fine amount of macro and micro nutrients that would aid plant growth.

Keywords: biochar, biomass, heavy metal immobalization, soil remediation

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
880 A Study of Relationship between Leadership Style and Organisational Culture in Private Organisations

Authors: Shreya Sirohi, Vineeta Sirohi

Abstract:

In the 21st century, the nature of work has become quite complex and dynamic, and in response to this, the organizational culture continues to change and develop new perspectives. Organizational culture and leadership are important elements of any organization. Organization’s performance and success to a large extent, depend upon these two factors. The ability of a leader lies in confronting with the challenge of evolving and adapting the culture of the organization as per the situational demands. Leadership and organizational culture are conceptually intertwined. Leadership is a key ingredient for the successful transformation of any organization, and a favorable organizational culture helps to motivate the employees towards their work. Organizational culture and leadership style plays a crucial role in achieving the specified objectives of an organization. The harmony between culture and leader within organization undoubtedly affects relationships, processes, and employee performance. The present investigation aimed to study the Leadership style and Organisational Culture of private organizations and the relationship between the two. The study was carried out on a sample of 100 employees from five private organizations located in the cities of Gurgaon and Delhi in India. The data was collected by employing organisational culture profile and multifactor leadership questionnaire. The findings of the study indicate that the selected organizations had dominant transformation leadership style, whereas the organizational culture varied from one organization to another. However, technocratic culture was found to be prominent, followed by entrepreneurial organizational culture. A low positive correlation was found between leadership style and organizational culture. The transformational leaders have a positive and significant relationship with employee’s satisfaction, productivity, and organization’s culture. The leaders practicing transformational leadership style inspire their followers, are innovative and are aware of their needs as well as of their followers. Such leadership style has a positive impact both on employees and working culture. Employees of such organization are able to come up with innovative ideas and are efficient in handling situations and making effective decisions. However, low correlation is self indicative of the fact that a single leadership style or a single culture type alone cannot contribute solely towards the growth of an organization. There is a need to blend the culture types and leadership styles suiting the needs of the organization. Organisational culture represents the deeper values and beliefs of the employees and influences organizational performance; hence, the leader has a crucial role to play in creating and managing organizational culture in aligning to the requirements of the present era of competitiveness, globalization and technological advancement.

Keywords: leadership style, organizational culture, technocratic, transformational

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
879 A Factor-Analytical Approach on Identities in Environmentally Significant Behavior

Authors: Alina M. Udall, Judith de Groot, Simon de Jong, Avi Shankar

Abstract:

There are many ways in which environmentally significant behavior can be explained. Dominant psychological theories, namely, the theory of planned behavior, the norm-activation theory, its extension, the value-belief-norm theory, and the theory of habit do not explain large parts of environmentally significant behaviors. A new and rapidly growing approach is to focus on how consumer’s identities predict environmentally significant behavior. Identity may be relevant because consumers have many identities that are assumed to guide their behavior. Therefore, we assume that many identities will guide environmentally significant behavior. Many identities can be relevant for environmentally significant behavior. In reviewing the literature, over 200 identities have been studied making it difficult to establish the key identities for explaining environmentally significant behavior. Therefore, this paper first aims to establish the key identities previously used for explaining environmentally significant behavior. Second, the aim is to test which key identities explain environmentally significant behavior. To address the aims, an online survey study (n = 578) is conducted. First, the exploratory factor analysis reveals 15 identity factors. The identity factors are namely, environmentally concerned identity, anti-environmental self-identity, environmental place identity, connectedness with nature identity, green space visitor identity, active ethical identity, carbon off-setter identity, thoughtful self-identity, close community identity, anti-carbon off-setter identity, environmental group member identity, national identity, identification with developed countries, cyclist identity, and thoughtful organisation identity. Furthermore, to help researchers understand and operationalize the identities, the article provides theoretical definitions for each of the identities, in line with identity theory, social identity theory, and place identity theory. Second, the hierarchical regression shows only 10 factors significantly uniquely explain the variance in environmentally significant behavior. In order of predictive power the identities are namely, environmentally concerned identity, anti-environmental self-identity, thoughtful self-identity, environmental group member identity, anti-carbon off-setter identity, carbon off-setter identity, connectedness with nature identity, national identity, and green space visitor identity. The identities explain over 60% of the variance in environmentally significant behavior, a large effect size. Based on this finding, the article reveals a new, theoretical framework showing the key identities explaining environmentally significant behavior, to help improve and align the field.

Keywords: environmentally significant behavior, factor analysis, place identity, social identity

Procedia PDF Downloads 447
878 Intertemporal Individual Preferences for Climate Change Intergenerational Investments – Estimating the Social Discount Rate for Poland

Authors: Monika Foltyn-Zarychta

Abstract:

Climate change mitigation investment activities are inevitably extended in time extremely. The project cycle does not last for decades – sometimes it stretches out for hundreds of years and the project outcomes impact several generations. The longevity of those activities raises multiple problems in the appraisal procedure. One of the pivotal issues is the choice of the discount rate, which affect tremendously the net present value criterion. The paper aims at estimating the value of social discount rate for intergenerational investment projects in Poland based on individual intertemporal preferences. The analysis is based on questionnaire surveying Polish citizens and designed as contingent valuation method. The analysis aimed at answering two questions: 1) whether the value of the individual discount rate decline with increased time of delay, and 2) whether the value of the individual discount rate changes with increased spatial distance toward the gainers of the project. The valuation questions were designed to identify respondent’s indifference point between lives saved today and in the future due to hypothetical project mitigating climate changes. Several project effects’ delays (of 10, 30, 90 and 150 years) were used to test the decline in value with time. The variability in regard to distance was tested by asking respondents to estimate their indifference point separately for gainers in Poland and in Latvia. The results show that as the time delay increases, the average discount rate value decreases from 15,32% for 10-year delay to 2,75% for 150-year delay. Similar values were estimated for Latvian beneficiaries. There should be also noticed that the average volatility measured by standard deviation also decreased with time delay. However, the results did not show any statistically significant difference in discount rate values for Polish and Latvian gainers. The results showing the decline of the discount rate with time prove the possible economic efficiency of the intergenerational effect of climate change mitigation projects and may induce the assumption of the altruistic behavior of present generation toward future people. Furthermore, it can be backed up by the same discount rate level declared by Polish for distant in space Latvian gainers. The climate change activities usually need significant outlays and the payback period is extremely long. The more precise the variables in the appraisal are, the more trustworthy and rational the investment decision is. The discount rate estimations for Poland add to the vivid discussion concerning the issue of climate change and intergenerational justice.

Keywords: climate change, social discount rate, investment appraisal, intergenerational justice

Procedia PDF Downloads 234
877 Enhancement of Morphogenetic Potential to Obtain Elite Varities of Sauropus androgynous (L.) Merr. through Somatic Embryogenesis

Authors: S. Padma, D. H. Tejavathi

Abstract:

Somatic embryogenesis is a remarkable illustration of the dictum of plant totipotency where developmental reconstruction of somatic cells takes place towards the embryogenic pathway. It recapitulates the morphological and developmental process that occurs in zygotic embryogenesis. S. androgynous commonly called as multivitamin plant. The leaves are consumed as green leafy vegetable by the Southeast Asian communities due to their rich nutritional profile. Despite being a good nutritional vegetable with proteins, vitamins, minerals, amino acids, it is warned for excessive intake due to the presence of alkoloid called papaverine. Papaverine at higher concentrations is toxic and leads to a syndrome called Bronchiolitis Obliterans. In the present study, morphogenetic potential of shoot tip, leaf and nodal explants of Sauropus androgynous was investigated to develop and enhance the reliable plant regeneration protocol via somatic embryogenesis. Somatic embryos were derived directly from the embryogenic callus derived from shoot tip, node and leaf cultures on Phillips and Collins (L2) medium supplemented with NAA at various concentrations ranging from 5.3 µM/l to 26.85 µM/l within two months of inoculation. Thus obtained embryos were sub cultured to modified L2 media supplemented with increased vitamin level for the further growth. Somatic embryos with well-developed cotyledons were transferred to normal and modified L2 basal medium for conversion. The plantlets thus obtained were subjected to brief acclimatization before transferring them to land. About 95% of survival rate was recorded. The augmentation process of culturing various explants through somatic embryogenesis using synthetic medium with various plant growth regulators under controlled conditions have aggrandized the commercial production of Sauropus making it easily available over the conventional propagation methods. In addition, regeneration process through somatic embryogenesis has ameliorated the development of desired character in Sauropus with low papaverine content thereby providing a valuable resource to the food and pharmaceutical industry. Based on this research, plant tissue culture techniques have shown promise for economical and convenient application in Sauropus androgynous breeding.

Keywords: L2 medium, multivitamin plant, NAA, papaverine

Procedia PDF Downloads 205
876 Data Analysis Tool for Predicting Water Scarcity in Industry

Authors: Tassadit Issaadi Hamitouche, Nicolas Gillard, Jean Petit, Valerie Lavaste, Celine Mayousse

Abstract:

Water is a fundamental resource for the industry. It is taken from the environment either from municipal distribution networks or from various natural water sources such as the sea, ocean, rivers, aquifers, etc. Once used, water is discharged into the environment, reprocessed at the plant or treatment plants. These withdrawals and discharges have a direct impact on natural water resources. These impacts can apply to the quantity of water available, the quality of the water used, or to impacts that are more complex to measure and less direct, such as the health of the population downstream from the watercourse, for example. Based on the analysis of data (meteorological, river characteristics, physicochemical substances), we wish to predict water stress episodes and anticipate prefectoral decrees, which can impact the performance of plants and propose improvement solutions, help industrialists in their choice of location for a new plant, visualize possible interactions between companies to optimize exchanges and encourage the pooling of water treatment solutions, and set up circular economies around the issue of water. The development of a system for the collection, processing, and use of data related to water resources requires the functional constraints specific to the latter to be made explicit. Thus the system will have to be able to store a large amount of data from sensors (which is the main type of data in plants and their environment). In addition, manufacturers need to have 'near-real-time' processing of information in order to be able to make the best decisions (to be rapidly notified of an event that would have a significant impact on water resources). Finally, the visualization of data must be adapted to its temporal and geographical dimensions. In this study, we set up an infrastructure centered on the TICK application stack (for Telegraf, InfluxDB, Chronograf, and Kapacitor), which is a set of loosely coupled but tightly integrated open source projects designed to manage huge amounts of time-stamped information. The software architecture is coupled with the cross-industry standard process for data mining (CRISP-DM) data mining methodology. The robust architecture and the methodology used have demonstrated their effectiveness on the study case of learning the level of a river with a 7-day horizon. The management of water and the activities within the plants -which depend on this resource- should be considerably improved thanks, on the one hand, to the learning that allows the anticipation of periods of water stress, and on the other hand, to the information system that is able to warn decision-makers with alerts created from the formalization of prefectoral decrees.

Keywords: data mining, industry, machine Learning, shortage, water resources

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
875 Russian pipeline natural gas export strategy under uncertainty

Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

Abstract:

Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
874 Synthesis of Core-Shell Particle Colloidal Solutions for Imaging Processes

Authors: Yoshio Kobayashi, Kohsuke Gonda

Abstract:

In medical diagnostics, contrast agents are used to improve the performance of X-ray, magnetic resonance, and fluorescence-based imaging. A variety of contrast agents are commercially available. Typical commercial contrast agents include solutions containing iodine compounds for X-ray imaging and gadolinium complexes for magnetic resonance imaging. Metal-gold nanoparticles can also exhibit X-ray imaging capabilities. Because of their small size, these contrast agents are not strongly attracted to liquids. Therefore, they cannot remain in vivo for long periods of time, making it difficult to obtain stable images. Forming contrast agent particles and increasing their apparent particle size is expected to be a solution to this problem, as they have a larger projected area than molecules or nanoparticles and thus have a longer residence time. In addition, contrast agents can cause adverse reactions derived from iodine, metallic gold, gadolinium ions, and cadmium. Coating particles with a shell that is inert to living organisms is a candidate for suppressing side reactions because the particles cannot contact the organism. Our laboratory has recently developed a method for the preparation of colloidal solutions of core-shell particles with an imaging-competent material as the core and biologically inert silica as the shell and studied their imaging properties. The method used was based on the hydrolysis and condensation of silicon alkoxide in the presence of particles such as iodine compound nanoparticles prepared by mixing aqueous AgClO4 and KI solutions, metal Au nanoparticles prepared by reducing HAuCl4 with citric acid, gadolinium compound nanoparticles prepared by the homogeneous precipitation method, and commercial cadmium compound nanoparticles so that silica nuclei generated from silicone alkoxide deposited on the particles to form silica shells. The prepared particle colloidal solutions showed notable imaging capabilities. For example, a computed tomography value of the silica-coated Au nanoparticle colloidal solution was higher than that of a commercial X-ray contrast agent for the same Au or iodine concentrations. In this contribution, we present our studies on the imaging capability of particle colloidal solutions that we have been conducting for the past few years.

Keywords: core-shell, particles, colloid, imaging

Procedia PDF Downloads 15
873 Development of a Turbulent Boundary Layer Wall-pressure Fluctuations Power Spectrum Model Using a Stepwise Regression Algorithm

Authors: Zachary Huffman, Joana Rocha

Abstract:

Wall-pressure fluctuations induced by the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) developed over aircraft are a significant source of aircraft cabin noise. Since the power spectral density (PSD) of these pressure fluctuations is directly correlated with the amount of sound radiated into the cabin, the development of accurate empirical models that predict the PSD has been an important ongoing research topic. The sound emitted can be represented from the pressure fluctuations term in the Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Therefore, early TBL empirical models (including those from Lowson, Robertson, Chase, and Howe) were primarily derived by simplifying and solving the RANS for pressure fluctuation and adding appropriate scales. Most subsequent models (including Goody, Efimtsov, Laganelli, Smol’yakov, and Rackl and Weston models) were derived by making modifications to these early models or by physical principles. Overall, these models have had varying levels of accuracy, but, in general, they are most accurate under the specific Reynolds and Mach numbers they were developed for, while being less accurate under other flow conditions. Despite this, recent research into the possibility of using alternative methods for deriving the models has been rather limited. More recent studies have demonstrated that an artificial neural network model was more accurate than traditional models and could be applied more generally, but the accuracy of other machine learning techniques has not been explored. In the current study, an original model is derived using a stepwise regression algorithm in the statistical programming language R, and TBL wall-pressure fluctuations PSD data gathered at the Carleton University wind tunnel. The theoretical advantage of a stepwise regression approach is that it will automatically filter out redundant or uncorrelated input variables (through the process of feature selection), and it is computationally faster than machine learning. The main disadvantage is the potential risk of overfitting. The accuracy of the developed model is assessed by comparing it to independently sourced datasets.

Keywords: aircraft noise, machine learning, power spectral density models, regression models, turbulent boundary layer wall-pressure fluctuations

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
872 The Debureaucratization Strategy for the Portuguese Health Service through Effective Communication

Authors: Fernando Araujo, Sandra Cardoso, Fátima Fonseca, Sandra Cavaca

Abstract:

A debureaucratization strategy for the Portuguese Health Service was assumed by the Executive Board of the SNS, in deep articulation with the Shared Services of the Ministry of Health. Two of the main dimensions were focused on sick leaves (SL), that transform primary health care (PHC) in administrative institutions, limiting access to patients. The self-declaration of illness (SDI) project, through the National Health Service Contact Centre (SNS24), began on May 1, 2023, and has already resulted in the issuance of more than 300,000 SDI without the need to allocate resources from the National Health Service (NHS). This political decision allows each citizen, in a maximum 2 times/year, and 3 days each time, if ill, through their own responsibility, report their health condition in a dematerialized way, and by this way justified the absence to work, although by Portuguese law in these first three days, there is no payment of salary. Using a digital approach, it is now feasible without the need to go to the PHC and occupy the time of the PHC only to obtain an SL. Through this measure, bureaucracy has been reduced, and the system has been focused on users, improving the lives of citizens and reducing the administrative burden on PHC, which now has more consultation times for users who need it. The second initiative, which began on March 1, 2024, allows the SL to be issued in emergency departments (ED) of public hospitals and in the health institutions of the social and private sectors. This project is intended to allow the user who has suffered a situation of acute urgent illness and who has been observed in an ED of a public hospital or in a private or social entity no longer need to go to PHC only to apply for the respective SL. Since March 1, 54,453 SLs have been issued, 242 in private or social sector institutions and 6,918 in public hospitals, of which 134 were in ED and 47,292 in PHC. This approach has proven to be technically robust, allows immediate resolution of problems and differentiates the performance of doctors. However, it is important to continue to qualify the proper functioning of the ED, preventing non-urgent users from going there only to obtain SL. Thus, in order to make better use of existing resources, it was operationalizing this extension of its issuance in a balanced way, allowing SL to be issued in the ED of hospitals only to critically ill patients or patients referred by INEM, SNS24, or PHC. In both cases, an intense public campaign was implemented to explain the way it works and the benefits for patients. In satisfaction surveys, more than 95% of patients and doctors were satisfied with the solutions, asking for extensions to other areas. The administrative simplification agenda of the NHS continues its effective development. For the success of this debureaucratization agenda, the key factors are effective communication and the ability to reach patients and health professionals in order to increase health literacy and the correct use of NHS.

Keywords: debureaucratization strategy, self-declaration of illness, sick leaves, SNS24

Procedia PDF Downloads 57
871 Money Laundering and Terror Financing in the Islamic Banking Sector in Bangladesh

Authors: Md. Abdul Kader

Abstract:

Several reports released by Global Financial Integrity (GFI) in recent times have identified Bangladesh as being among the worst affected countries to the scourge of money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF). The money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF) risks associated with conventional finance are generally well identified and understood by the relevant national authorities. There is, however, no common understanding of ML/TF risks associated with Islamic Banking. This paper attempts to examine the issues of money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF) in Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. This study also investigates the risk factors associated with Islamic Banking system of Bangladesh that are favorable for ML and TF and which prevent the government to control such issues in the Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. Qualitative research methods were employed by studying various reports from journals, newspapers, bank reports and periodicals. In addition, five ex-bankers who were in the policy making bodies of three Islamic Banks were also interviewed. Findings suggest that government policies regarding Islamic Banking system in Bangladesh are not well defined and clear. Shariah law, that is the guiding principle of Islamic Banking, is not well recognized by the government policy makers, and thus they left the responsibility to the governing bodies of the banks. Other challenges that were found in the study are: the complexity of some Islamic banking products, the different forms of relationship between the banks and their clients, the inadequate ability and skill in the supervision of Islamic finance, particularly in jurisdictions, to evaluate their activities. All these risk factors paved the ground for ML and TF in the Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. However, due to unconventional nature of Banking and lack of investigative reporting on Islamic Banking, this study could not cover the whole picture of the ML/TF of Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. However, both qualitative documents and interviewees confirmed that Islamic Banking in Bangladesh could be branded as risky when it comes to money laundering and terror financing. This study recommends that the central bank authorities who supervise Islamic finance and the government policy makers should obtain a greater understanding of the specific ML/TF risks that may arise in Islamic Banks and develop a proper response. The study findings are expected to considerably impact Islamic banking management and policymakers to develop strong and appropriate policy to enhance transparency, accountability, and efficiency in banking sector. The regulatory bodies can consider the findings to disseminate anti money laundering and terror financing related rules and regulations.

Keywords: money laundering, terror financing, islamic banking, bangladesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
870 Pre- and Post-Brexit Experiences of the Bulgarian Working Class Migrants: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches

Authors: Mariyan Tomov

Abstract:

Bulgarian working class immigrants are increasingly concerned with UK’s recent immigration policies in the context of Brexit. The new ID system would exclude many people currently working in Britain and would break the usual immigrant travel patterns. Post-Brexit Britain would aim to repeal seasonal immigrants. Measures for keeping long-term and life-long immigrants have been implemented and migrants that aim to remain in Britain and establish a household there would be more privileged than temporary or seasonal workers. The results of such regulating mechanisms come at the expense of migrants’ longings for a ‘normal’ existence, especially for those coming from Central and Eastern Europe. Based on in-depth interviews with Bulgarian working class immigrants, the study found out that their major concerns following the decision of the UK to leave the EU are related with the freedom to travel, reside and work in the UK. Furthermore, many of the interviewed women are concerned that they could lose some of the EU's fundamental rights, such as maternity and protection of pregnant women from unlawful dismissal. The soar of commodity prices and university fees and the limited access to public services, healthcare and social benefits in the UK, are also subject to discussion in the paper. The most serious problem, according to the interview, is that the attitude towards Bulgarians and other immigrants in the UK is deteriorating. Both traditional and social media in the UK often portray the migrants negatively by claiming that they take British job positions while simultaneously abuse the welfare system. As a result, the Bulgarian migrants often face social exclusion, which might have negative influence on their health and welfare. In this sense, some of the interviewed stress on the fact that the most important changes after Brexit must take place in British society itself. The aim of the proposed study is to provide a better understanding of the Bulgarian migrants’ economic, health and sociocultural experience in the context of Brexit. Methodologically, the proposed paper leans on: 1. Analysing ethnographic materials dedicated to the pre- and post-migratory experiences of Bulgarian working class migrants, using SPSS. 2. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with more than 50 Bulgarian working class migrants [N > 50] in the UK, between 18 and 65 years. The communication with the interviewees was possible via Viber/Skype or face-to-face interaction. 3. The analysis is guided by theoretical frameworks. The paper has been developed within the framework of the research projects of the National Scientific Fund of Bulgaria: DCOST 01/25-20.02.2017 supporting COST Action CA16111 ‘International Ethnic and Immigrant Minorities Survey Data Network’.

Keywords: Bulgarian migrants in UK, economic experiences, sociocultural experiences, Brexit

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
869 Eco-Design of Multifunctional System Based on a Shape Memory Polymer and ZnO Nanoparticles for Sportswear

Authors: Inês Boticas, Diana P. Ferreira, Ana Eusébio, Carlos Silva, Pedro Magalhães, Ricardo Silva, Raul Fangueiro

Abstract:

Since the beginning of the 20th century, sportswear has a major contribution to the impact of fashion on our lives. Nowadays, the embracing of sportswear fashion/looks is undoubtedly noticeable, as the modern consumer searches for high comfort and linear aesthetics for its clothes. This compromise lead to the arise of the athleisure trend. Athleisure surges as a new style area that combines both wearability and fashion sense, differentiated from the archetypal sportswear, usually associated to “gym clothes”. Additionally, the possibility to functionalize and implement new technologies have shifted and progressively empowers the connection between the concepts of physical activities practice and well-being, allowing clothing to be more interactive and responsive with its surroundings. In this study, a design inspired in retro and urban lifestyle was envisioned, engineering textile structures that can respond to external stimuli. These structures are enhanced to be responsive to heat, water vapor and humidity, integrating shape memory polymers (SMP) to improve the breathability and heat-responsive behavior of the textiles and zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnO NPs) to heighten the surface hydrophobic properties. The best results for hydrophobic exhibited superhydrophobic behavior with water contact angle (WAC) of more than 150 degrees. For the breathability and heat-response properties, SMP-coated samples showed an increase in water vapour permeability values of about 50% when compared with non SMP-coated samples. These innovative technological approaches were endorsed to design innovative clothing, in line with circular economy and eco-design principles, by assigning a substantial degree of mutability and versatility to the clothing. The development of a coat and shirt, in which different parts can be purchased separately to create multiple products, aims to combine the technicality of both the fabrics used and the making of the garments. This concept translates itself into a real constructive mechanism through the symbiosis of high-tech functionalities and the timeless design that follows the athleisure aesthetics.

Keywords: breathability, sportswear and casual clothing, sustainable design, superhydrophobicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
868 Professional Stakeholders Perspectives on Community Participation in Transit-Oriented Development Projects: A Johannesburg Case Study

Authors: Kofi Quartey, Kola Ijasan

Abstract:

Achieving densification around transit-oriented development projects has proven the most ideal way of facilitating urban sprawl whilst increasing the mobility of the majority of the urban populations, making parts of the city that were inaccessible, accessible. Johannesburg has undertaken TOD vision, which was initially called the corridors of freedom. The TOD, in line with the Sustainable Development Goal 11, seeks to establish inclusive, sustainable cities and, in line with the Joburg Growth Development Strategy, aims to create an equitable world-class African city. Equity and inclusivity should occur from the onset of planning and implementation of TOD projects through meaningful community participation. Stakeholder engagement literature from various disciplinary backgrounds has documented dissatisfaction of communities regarding the lack of meaningful participation in government-led development initiatives. The views of other project stakeholders such as project policy planners and project implementors and their challenges in undertaking community participation are, however, not taken into account in such instances, leaving room for a biased perspective. Document analysis was undertaken to determine what is expected of the Project stakeholders according to policy and whether they carried out their duties) seven interviews were also conducted with city entities and community representatives to determine their experiences and challenges with community participation in the various TOD projects attributed to the CoF vision. The findings of the study indicated that stakeholder engagement processes were best described as an ‘educative process’; where local communities were limited to being informed from the onset rather than having an active involvement in the planning processes. Most community members felt they were being informed and educated as to what was going to happen in spite of having their views and opinions collected – primarily due to project deadlines and budget constraints, as was confirmed by professional stakeholders. Some community members exhibited reluctance to change due to feelings of having projects being imposed on them, and the implications of the projects on their properties and lifestyles. It is recommended that community participation should remain a participatory and engaging process that creates an exchange of knowledge and understanding in the form of a dialogue between communities and project stakeholders until a consensus is reached.

Keywords: stakeholder engagement, transit oriented development, community participation, Johannesburg

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
867 Making a Difference in a Crisis: How the 24-Hour Surgical Ambulatory Assessment Unit Transformed Emergency Care during COVID-19

Authors: Bindhiya Thomas, Rehana Hafeez

Abstract:

Background: The Surgical Ambulatory Unit (SAU) also known as the Same Day Emergency Care (SDEC) is an established part of many hospitals providing same day emergency care service to surgical patients who would have otherwise required admission through the A&E. Prior to Covid, the SAU was functioning as a 12-hour service, but during the Covid crisis this service was transformed to a 24 hour functioning Surgical Ambulatory Assessment unit (SAAU). We studied the effects that this change brought about in-patient care in our hospital. Objective: The objective of the study was to assess the impact of a 24-hour Surgical Ambulatory Assessment unit on patient care during the time of Covid, in particular its role in freeing A&E capacity and delivering effective patient care. Methods: We collected two sets of data retrospectively. The first set was collected over a 6-week period when the SAU was functioning at the Princess Royal University Hospital. On March 23rd, 2020, the SAU was transformed into a 24-hour SAAU. Following this transformation, a second set of patient data was collected over a period of 6 weeks. A comparison was made between data collected from when the hospital had a 12-hour Surgical Ambulatory unit and later when it was transformed into a 24-hour facility. Its effects on the change in the number of patients breaching the four hour waiting period and the number of emergency surgical admissions. Results: The 24-hour Surgical Ambulatory Assessment unit brought significant reductions in the number of patients breaching the waiting period of 4 hours in A&E from 44% during the period of the 12-hour Surgical Ambulatory care facility to 0% from when the 24-hour Surgical Ambulatory Assessment Unit was established. A 28% reduction was also seen in the number of surgical patients' admissions from A&E. Conclusions: The 24-hour SAAU was found to have a profound positive impact on emergency care of surgical patients. Especially during the Covid crisis, it played a crucial role in providing not only effective and accessible patient care but also in reducing the A&E workload and admissions. It thus proved to be a strategic tool that helped to deal with the immense workload in emergency care during the Covid crisis and helped free much needed headspace at a time of uncertainty for the A&E to better configure their services. If sustained, the 24-hour SAAU could be relied on to augment the NHS emergency services in the future, especially in the event of another crisis.

Keywords: Princess Royal University Hospital, surgical ambulatory assessment unit, surgical ambulatory unit, same day emergency care

Procedia PDF Downloads 161
866 Annexing the Strength of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for Real-time TB Reporting Using TB Situation Room (TSR) in Nigeria: Kano State Experience

Authors: Ibrahim Umar, Ashiru Rajab, Sumayya Chindo, Emmanuel Olashore

Abstract:

INTRODUCTION: Kano is the most populous state in Nigeria and one of the two states with the highest TB burden in the country. The state notifies an average of 8,000+ TB cases quarterly and has the highest yearly notification of all the states in Nigeria from 2020 to 2022. The contribution of the state TB program to the National TB notification varies from 9% to 10% quarterly between the first quarter of 2022 and second quarter of 2023. The Kano State TB Situation Room is an innovative platform for timely data collection, collation and analysis for informed decision in health system. During the 2023 second National TB Testing week (NTBTW) Kano TB program aimed at early TB detection, prevention and treatment. The state TB Situation room provided avenue to the state for coordination and surveillance through real time data reporting, review, analysis and use during the NTBTW. OBJECTIVES: To assess the role of innovative information and communication technology platform for real-time TB reporting during second National TB Testing week in Nigeria 2023. To showcase the NTBTW data cascade analysis using TSR as innovative ICT platform. METHODOLOGY: The State TB deployed a real-time virtual dashboard for NTBTW reporting, analysis and feedback. A data room team was set up who received realtime data using google link. Data received was analyzed using power BI analytic tool with statistical alpha level of significance of <0.05. RESULTS: At the end of the week-long activity and using the real-time dashboard with onsite mentorship of the field workers, the state TB program was able to screen a total of 52,054 people were screened for TB from 72,112 individuals eligible for screening (72% screening rate). A total of 9,910 presumptive TB clients were identified and evaluated for TB leading to diagnosis of 445 TB patients with TB (5% yield from presumptives) and placement of 435 TB patients on treatment (98% percentage enrolment). CONCLUSION: The TB Situation Room (TBSR) has been a great asset to Kano State TB Control Program in meeting up with the growing demand for timely data reporting in TB and other global health responses. The use of real time surveillance data during the 2023 NTBTW has in no small measure improved the TB response and feedback in Kano State. Scaling up this intervention to other disease areas, states and nations is a positive step in the right direction towards global TB eradication.

Keywords: tuberculosis (tb), national tb testing week (ntbtw), tb situation rom (tsr), information communication technology (ict)

Procedia PDF Downloads 62
865 Visualising Charles Bonnet Syndrome: Digital Co-Creation of Pseudohallucinations

Authors: Victoria H. Hamilton

Abstract:

Charles Bonnet Syndrome (CBS) is when a person experiences pseudohallucinations that fill in visual information from any type of sight loss. CBS arises from an epiphenomenal process, with the physical actions of sight resulting in the mental formations of images. These pseudohallucinations—referred to as visions by the CBS community—manifest in a wide range of forms, from complex scenes to simple geometric shapes. To share these unique visual experiences, a remote co-creation website was created where CBS participants communicated their lived experiences. This created a reflexive process, and we worked to produce true representations of these interesting and little-known phenomena. Digital reconstruction of the visions is utilised as it echoes the vivid, experiential movie-like nature of what is being perceived. This paper critically analyses co-creation as a method for making digital assets. The implications of the participants' vision impairments and the application of ethical safeguards are examined in this context. Important to note, this research is of a medical syndrome for a non-medical, practice-based design. CBS research to date is primarily conducted by the ophthalmic, neurological, and psychiatric fields and approached with the primary concerns of these specialties. This research contributes a distinct approach incorporating practice-based digital design, autoethnography, and phenomenology. Autoethnography and phenomenology combine as a foundation, with the first bringing understanding and insights, balanced by the second philosophical, bigger picture, and established approach. With further refining, it is anticipated that the research may be applied to other conditions. Conditions where articulating internal experiences proves challenging and the use of digital methods could aid communication. Both the research and CBS communities will benefit from the insights regarding the relationship between cognitive perceptions and the vision process. This research combines the digital visualising of visions with interest in the link between metaphor, embodied cognition, and image. The argument for a link between CBS visions and metaphor may appear evident due to the cross-category mapping of images that is necessary for comprehension. They both are— CBS visions and metaphors—the experience of picturing images, often with lateral connections and imaginative associations.

Keywords: Charles Bonnet Syndrome, digital design, visual hallucinations, visual perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 38
864 Cost Overruns in Mega Projects: Project Progress Prediction with Probabilistic Methods

Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

Abstract:

Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 395
863 Pakistan’s Counterinsurgency Operations: A Case Study of Swat

Authors: Arshad Ali

Abstract:

The Taliban insurgency in Swat which started apparently as a social movement in 2004 transformed into an anti-Pakistan Islamist insurgency by joining hands with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) upon its formation in 2007. It quickly spread beyond Swat by 2009 making Swat the second stronghold of TTP after FATA. It prompted the Pakistan military to launch a full-scale counterinsurgency military operation code named Rah-i-Rast to regain the control of Swat. Operation Rah-i-Rast was successful not only in restoring the writ of the State but more importantly in creating a consensus against the spread of Taliban insurgency in Pakistan at political, social and military levels. This operation became a test case for civilian government and military to seek for a sustainable solution combating the TTP insurgency in the north-west of Pakistan. This study analyzes why the counterinsurgency operation Rah-i-Rast was successful and why the previous ones came into failure. The study also explores factors which created consensus against the Taliban insurgency at political and social level as well as reasons which hindered such a consensual approach in the past. The study argues that the previous initiatives failed due to various factors including Pakistan army’s lack of comprehensive counterinsurgency model, weak political will and public support, and states negligence. Also, the initial counterinsurgency policies were ad-hoc in nature fluctuating between military operations and peace deals. After continuous failure, the military revisited its approach to counterinsurgency in the operation Rah-i-Rast. The security forces learnt from their past experiences and developed a pragmatic counterinsurgency model: ‘clear, hold, build, and transfer.’ The military also adopted the population-centric approach to provide security to the local people. This case Study of Swat evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of the Pakistan's counterinsurgency operations as well as peace agreements. It will analyze operation Rah-i-Rast in the light of David Galula’s model of counterinsurgency. Unlike existing literature, the study underscores the bottom up approach adopted by the Pakistan’s military and government by engaging the local population to sustain the post-operation stability in Swat. More specifically, the study emphasizes on the hybrid counterinsurgency model “clear, hold, and build and Transfer” in Swat.

Keywords: Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, clear, hold, build, transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 354
862 Torn Between the Lines of Border: The Pakhtuns of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Search of Identity

Authors: Priyanka Dutta Chowdhury

Abstract:

A globalized connected world, calling loud for a composite culture, was still not able to erase the pain of a desired nationalism based on cultural identity. In the South Asian region, the random drawing of the boundaries without taking the ethnic aspect into consideration have always challenged the very basis of the existence of certain groups. The urge to reunify with the fellow brothers on both sides of the border have always called for a chaos and schism in the countries of this region. Sometimes this became a tool to bargain with the state and find a favorable position in the power structure on the basis of cultural identity. In Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Pakhtuns who are divided across the border of the two countries, from the inception of creation of Pakistan have posed various challenges and hampered the growth of a consolidated nation. The Pakhtuns or Pashtuns of both Pakistan and Afghanistan have a strong cultural affinity which blurs their physical distancing and calls for a nationalism based on this ethnic affiliation. Both the sides wanted to create Pakhtunistan unifying all the Pakhtuns of the region. For long, this group have denied to accept the Durand line separating the two. This was an area of concern especially for the Pakhtuns of Pakistan torn between the decision either to join Afghanistan, create a nation of their own or be a part of Pakistan. This ethnic issue became a bone of contention between the two countries. Later, though well absorbed and recognized in the respective countries, they have fought for their identity and claimed for a dominant position in the politics of the nations. Because of the porous borders often influx of refugees was seen especially during Afghan Wars and later many extremists’ groups were born from them especially the Taliban. In the recent string of events, when the Taliban, who are mostly Pakhtuns ethnically, came in power in Afghanistan, a wave of sympathy arose in Pakistan. This gave a strengthening position to the religious Pakhtuns across the border. It is to be noted here that a fragmented Pakhtun identity between the religious and seculars were clearly visible, voicing for their place in the political hierarchy of the country with a vision distinct from each other especially in Pakistan. In this context the paper tries to evaluate the reasons for this cultural turmoil between the countries and this ethnic group. It also aims to analyze the concept of how the identity politics still holds its relevance in the contemporary world. Additionally, the recent trend of fragmented identity points towards instrumentalization of this ethnic groups, who are engaged in the bargaining process with the state for a robust position in the power structure. In the end, the paper aims to deduct from the theoretical conditions of identity politics, whether this is a primordial or a situational tool to have a visibility in the power structure of the contemporary world.

Keywords: cultural identity, identity politics, instrumentalization of identity pakhtuns, power structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
861 From Shallow Semantic Representation to Deeper One: Verb Decomposition Approach

Authors: Aliaksandr Huminski

Abstract:

Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) as shallow semantic parsing approach includes recognition and labeling arguments of a verb in a sentence. Verb participants are linked with specific semantic roles (Agent, Patient, Instrument, Location, etc.). Thus, SRL can answer on key questions such as ‘Who’, ‘When’, ‘What’, ‘Where’ in a text and it is widely applied in dialog systems, question-answering, named entity recognition, information retrieval, and other fields of NLP. However, SRL has the following flaw: Two sentences with identical (or almost identical) meaning can have different semantic role structures. Let consider 2 sentences: (1) John put butter on the bread. (2) John buttered the bread. SRL for (1) and (2) will be significantly different. For the verb put in (1) it is [Agent + Patient + Goal], but for the verb butter in (2) it is [Agent + Goal]. It happens because of one of the most interesting and intriguing features of a verb: Its ability to capture participants as in the case of the verb butter, or their features as, say, in the case of the verb drink where the participant’s feature being liquid is shared with the verb. This capture looks like a total fusion of meaning and cannot be decomposed in direct way (in comparison with compound verbs like babysit or breastfeed). From this perspective, SRL looks really shallow to represent semantic structure. If the key point in semantic representation is an opportunity to use it for making inferences and finding hidden reasons, it assumes by default that two different but semantically identical sentences must have the same semantic structure. Otherwise we will have different inferences from the same meaning. To overcome the above-mentioned flaw, the following approach is suggested. Assume that: P is a participant of relation; F is a feature of a participant; Vcp is a verb that captures a participant; Vcf is a verb that captures a feature of a participant; Vpr is a primitive verb or a verb that does not capture any participant and represents only a relation. In another word, a primitive verb is a verb whose meaning does not include meanings from its surroundings. Then Vcp and Vcf can be decomposed as: Vcp = Vpr +P; Vcf = Vpr +F. If all Vcp and Vcf will be represented this way, then primitive verbs Vpr can be considered as a canonical form for SRL. As a result of that, there will be no hidden participants caught by a verb since all participants will be explicitly unfolded. An obvious example of Vpr is the verb go, which represents pure movement. In this case the verb drink can be represented as man-made movement of liquid into specific direction. Extraction and using primitive verbs for SRL create a canonical representation unique for semantically identical sentences. It leads to the unification of semantic representation. In this case, the critical flaw related to SRL will be resolved.

Keywords: decomposition, labeling, primitive verbs, semantic roles

Procedia PDF Downloads 360
860 Mobility Management for Pedestrian Accident Predictability and Mitigation Strategies Using Multiple

Authors: Oscar Norman Nekesa, Yoshitaka Kajita

Abstract:

Tom Mboya Street is a vital urban corridor within the spectrum of Nairobi city, it experiences high volumes of pedestrian and vehicular traffic. Despite past intervention measures to lessen this catastrophe, rates have remained high. This highlights significant safety concerns that need urgent attention. This study investigates the correlation and pedestrian accident predictability with significant independent variables using multiple linear regression to model to develop effective mobility management strategies for accident mitigation. The methodology involves collecting and analyzing data on pedestrian accidents and various related independent variables. Data sources include the National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and Nairobi City County records, covering five years. This study aims to investigate that traffic volumes (pedestrian and vehicle), Vehicular speed, human factors, illegal parking, policy issues, urban-land use, built environment, traffic signals conditions, inadequate lighting, and insufficient traffic control measures significantly have predictability with the rate of pedestrian accidents. Explanatory variables related to road design and geometry are significant in predictor models for the Tom Mboya Road link but less influential in junction along the 5 km stretch road models. The most impactful variable across all models was vehicular traffic flow. The study recommends infrastructural improvements, enhanced enforcement, and public awareness campaigns to reduce accidents and improve urban mobility. These insights can inform policy-making and urban planning to enhance pedestrian safety along the dense packed Tom Mboya Street and similar urban settings. The findings will inform evidence-based interventions to enhance pedestrian safety and improve urban mobility.

Keywords: multiple linear regression, urban mobility, traffic management, Nairobi, Tom Mboya street, infrastructure conditions., pedestrian safety, correlation and prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 16
859 Illness Roles and Coping Strategies in Aged Patients on Hemodialysis in Lahore

Authors: Zainab Bashir

Abstract:

There has been a lot of quantitative research on end-stage renal disease (ESRD), its implications, psychological effects and so on across the world, however little qualitative information is available on coping strategies and illness role adaptations specific to renal failure. This article attempts to learn about illness roles and coping strategies specific to aged ESRD patients on hemodialysis in Lahore. The patients were interviewed on a structured schedule and were asked questions on tasks and coping related to physical, psychological, and social consequences of renal failure. Standardised techniques and methods of grounded theory were used to analyse and code the information in this small-scale, in-depth study. An analysis of tasks faced by the ESRD patients and coping they employ to fulfill or overcome those tasks were done. This analysis was based on three different types of data: experiential accounts of ESRD patients with respect to tasks and strategies for coping, coping styles and illness roles typologies, and monographs of coping styles. In the information gathered using interviews with respondents, three styles of problem focused coping, and two styles of emotion focused coping could be identified. Problem focused coping included making physical adjustments to suit the requirements of the health condition, including dialysis and medical regime as integral part of patients’ lives, and altering future plans according to the course of the disease. Emotion focused coping included seeking help to manage stress/anxiety and resenting the disease condition and giving up. These coping styles are linked to the illness roles assigned to the respondents. In conclusion, there is no single formula to deal with the disease, however, some typologies can be established. In most of the cases discussed in the paper, adjustment to a regular dialysis routine, restriction in bodily function, inability to work and negative impacts on family life, especially spousal relationships have come to fore as common problems. A large part of coping with these problems had to do with mentally accepting the disease and carrying on despite. These cannot be seen as deviant adaptations to the depressive situation arising from renal failure, but more of patterned ways in which patients can approximate a close to normal lifestyle despite the terminal disease.

Keywords: coping strategies, ESRD patients, hemodialysis, illness roles

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
858 Knowledge, Attitude and Associated Factors of Practice towards Post Exposure Prophylaxis of HIV Infection among Health Professionals in Yeka and Kazanchis Health Center

Authors: Semira Zeru Haileslassie

Abstract:

Lack of awareness and practices of PEP treatment were observed among respondents, but they had a better attitude towards PEP. To this end, a formal training for all respondents regarding PEP for HIV prior to their clinical attachments is of utmost importance. The training ought to incorporate a brief clarification with respect to the unpleasant impact of non-adherence that essentially incorporate destitute treatment result and most prominent hazard of resistance and few given as a major cause for non-compliance to PEP, common transient side-effects of PEP and its administrations ought to be cloister educated healthcare specialists to diminish its effect on adherence. Besides, the propensity of detailing needle adhere harm was destitute that needs endeavors to progress. Progressing the culture of detailing and making the detailing handle simple is very necessary. In reality, announcing such wounds as early as conceivable will educate others not to commit same issue once more and, for the most part, will empower stakeholders to intercede the issue sometime prior to it re-occur. At long last, as distant as get up and go utilize has cleared out with so numerous bothers, risk decrease is the foremost choice. With this, taking the increased significance of protective barriers so as to decrease the hazard of exposure to HIV, distinctive stakeholders (the healing center hardware supply chain director, the HIV/ Helps clinic, the clinic chief, hardware and supply quality confirmation group, and other authoritative bodies) ought to work together in co-ordination to secure the supply and guarantee the quality of those crucial protective barriers and to advance demand health laborers to continuously wear protective barriers when exposed to HIV hazard components as well as to dispose appropriately once done. At long last, we prescribe future examiners to conduct planned multicenter studies with extra goals (counting indicator investigation) for way better generalization and result. In spite of satisfactory information and favorable state of mind towards PEP for HIV in most of the respondents, this study uncovered that there were delays in starting, low utilization, and fragmented use of the prescribed PEP. So, health care staff need to progress their practice on PEP of HIV through diverse training program related to PEP of HIV.

Keywords: HIV infection, prophylaxis, knowledge, attitude

Procedia PDF Downloads 192