Search results for: packet loss probability estimation

Authors: Meron Zenaselase Rata, Euridice Leyequien Abarca

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The production of major crops in Northern Ethiopia, especially the Tigray Region, is at subsistence level due to drought, erratic rainfall, and poor soil fertility. Since cactus pear is a drought-resistant plant, it is considered as a lifesaver fruit and a strategy for poverty reduction in a drought-affected area of the region. Despite its contribution to household income and food security in the area, the cactus pear sub-sector is experiencing many constraints with limited attention given to its post-harvest loss management. Therefore, this research was carried out to identify opportunities for reducing post-harvest losses and recommend possible strategies to reduce post-harvest losses, thereby improving production and smallholder’s income. Both probability and non-probability sampling techniques were employed to collect the data. Ganta Afeshum district was selected from Eastern Tigray, and two peasant associations (Buket and Golea) were also selected from the district purposively for being potential in cactus pear production. Simple random sampling techniques were employed to survey 30 households from each of the two peasant associations, and a semi-structured questionnaire was used as a tool for data collection. Moreover, in this research 2 collectors, 2 wholesalers, 1 processor, 3 retailers, 2 consumers were interviewed; and two focus group discussion was also done with 14 key farmers using semi-structured checklist; and key informant interview with governmental and non-governmental organizations were interviewed to gather more information about the cactus pear production, post-harvest losses, the strategies used to reduce the post-harvest losses and suggestions to improve the post-harvest management. To enter and analyze the quantitative data, SPSS version 20 was used, whereas MS-word were used to transcribe the qualitative data. The data were presented using frequency and descriptive tables and graphs. The data analysis was also done using a chain map, correlations, stakeholder matrix, and gross margin. Mean comparisons like ANOVA and t-test between variables were used. The analysis result shows that the present cactus pear value chain involves main actors and supporters. However, there is inadequate information flow and informal market linkages among actors in the cactus pear value chain. The farmer's gross margin is higher when they sell to the processor than sell to collectors. The significant postharvest loss in the cactus pear value chain is at the producer level, followed by wholesalers and retailers. The maximum and minimum volume of post-harvest losses at the producer level is 4212 and 240 kgs per season. The post-harvest loss was caused by limited farmers skill on-farm management and harvesting, low market price, limited market information, absence of producer organization, poor post-harvest handling, absence of cold storage, absence of collection centers, poor infrastructure, inadequate credit access, using traditional transportation system, absence of quality control, illegal traders, inadequate research and extension services and using inappropriate packaging material. Therefore, some of the recommendations were providing adequate practical training, forming producer organizations, and constructing collection centers.

Keywords: cactus pear, post-harvest losses, profit margin, value-chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Niharika Verma, Sandeep Santosh

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DOA technique is a localization technique used in the communication field. Various algorithms have been developed for direction of arrival estimation like MUSIC, ROOT MUSIC, etc. These algorithms depend on various parameters like antenna array elements, number of snapshots and various others. Basically the MUSIC spectrum is evaluated and peaks obtained are considered as the angle of arrivals. The angles evaluated using this process depends on the scanning interval chosen. The accuracy of the results obtained depends on the coarseness of the interval chosen. In this paper, golden section search is applied to the MUSIC algorithm and therefore, more accurate results are achieved. Initially the coarse DOA estimations is done using the MUSIC algorithm in the range -90 to 90 degree at the interval of 10 degree. After the peaks obtained then fine DOA estimation is done using golden section search. Also, the partitioning method is applied to estimate the number of signals incident on the antenna array. Dependency of the algorithm on the number of snapshots is also being explained. Hence, the accurate results are being determined using this algorithm.

Keywords: Direction of Arrival (DOA), golden section search, MUSIC, number of snapshots

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Authors: Jie Liu, Jinqu Cheng, Qiyuan Peng, Yong Yin

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Urban rail transit (URT) plays a significant role in dealing with traffic congestion and environmental problems in cities. However, equipment failure and obstruction of links often lead to URT links’ capacities loss in daily operation. It affects the reliability and transport service quality of URT network seriously. In order to measure the influence of links’ capacities loss on reliability and transport service quality of URT network, passengers are divided into three categories in case of links’ capacities loss. Passengers in category 1 are less affected by the loss of links’ capacities. Their travel is reliable since their travel quality is not significantly reduced. Passengers in category 2 are affected by the loss of links’ capacities heavily. Their travel is not reliable since their travel quality is reduced seriously. However, passengers in category 2 still can travel on URT. Passengers in category 3 can not travel on URT because their travel paths’ passenger flow exceeds capacities. Their travel is not reliable. Thus, the proportion of passengers in category 1 whose travel is reliable is defined as reliability indicator of URT network. The transport service quality of URT network is related to passengers’ travel time, passengers’ transfer times and whether seats are available to passengers. The generalized travel cost is a comprehensive reflection of travel time, transfer times and travel comfort. Therefore, passengers’ average generalized travel cost is used as transport service quality indicator of URT network. The impact of links’ capacities loss on transport service quality of URT network is measured with passengers’ relative average generalized travel cost with and without links’ capacities loss. The proportion of the passengers affected by links and betweenness of links are used to determine the important links in URT network. The stochastic user equilibrium distribution model based on the improved logit model is used to determine passengers’ categories and calculate passengers’ generalized travel cost in case of links’ capacities loss, which is solved with method of successive weighted averages algorithm. The reliability and transport service quality indicators of URT network are calculated with the solution result. Taking Wuhan Metro as a case, the reliability and transport service quality of Wuhan metro network is measured with indicators and method proposed in this paper. The result shows that using the proportion of the passengers affected by links can identify important links effectively which have great influence on reliability and transport service quality of URT network; The important links are mostly connected to transfer stations and the passenger flow of important links is high; With the increase of number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss, the reliability of the network keeps decreasing, the proportion of passengers in category 3 keeps increasing and the proportion of passengers in category 2 increases at first and then decreases; When the number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss increased to a certain level, the decline of transport service quality is weakened.

Keywords: urban rail transit network, reliability, transport service quality, links’ capacities loss, important links

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Authors: Ali Ashtiani, Cesar Carrasco

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Accurate determination of thermo-mechanical responses of jointed concrete pavement slabs is essential to implement an effective mechanistic design. Temperature-induced curling of concrete slabs can produce premature top-down cracking in rigid pavements. Curling of concrete slabs can result from daily temperature variation through the slab thickness. The slab curling can also result from temperature gradients due hot weather construction, drying shrinkage and creep that are permanently built into the slabs. The existence of permanent curling implies that concrete slabs are not flat at zero temperature gradient. In this case, slabs may not be in full contact with the underlying base layer when subjecting to traffic. Built-in curling can be a major factor producing loss of slab support. The magnitude of stresses induced in slabs is influenced by the stiffness of the underlying foundation layers and the contact condition along the slab-foundation interface. An approach for finite element modeling of the effect of loss of slab support due to built-in curling is presented in this paper. A series of parametric studies is carried out for a pavement system loaded with a combination of traffic and thermal loads, considering different built-in curling and different foundation rigidities. The results explain the effect of loss of support in the magnitude of stresses produced in concrete slabs. The results of parametric study can also be used to evaluate whether the governing equations that are used to idealize the behavior of jointed concrete pavements and the effect of loss of support have been accurately selected and implemented in the finite element model.

Keywords: built-in curling, finite element modeling, loss of slab support, rigid pavement

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: Miguel Cañon, Darwin Mena, Ivan Cabeza

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In this work was compared and evaluated the applicability of statistical methods for the estimation of missing precipitations data in the basin of the river Lenguazaque located in the departments of Cundinamarca and Boyacá, Colombia. The methods used were the method of simple linear regression, distance rate, local averages, mean rates, correlation with nearly stations and multiple regression method. The analysis used to determine the effectiveness of the methods is performed by using three statistical tools, the correlation coefficient (r2), standard error of estimation and the test of agreement of Bland and Altmant. The analysis was performed using real rainfall values removed randomly in each of the seasons and then estimated using the methodologies mentioned to complete the missing data values. So it was determined that the methods with the highest performance and accuracy in the estimation of data according to conditions that were counted are the method of multiple regressions with three nearby stations and a random application scheme supported in the precipitation behavior of related data sets.

Keywords: statistical comparison, precipitation data, river subbasin, Bland and Altmant

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: Jasbir Arora, Indu Talwar, Daisy Sahni, Vidya Rattan

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Introduction: Age estimation is a crucial step to build the identity of a person, both in case of deceased and alive. In adults, age can be estimated on the basis of six regressive (Attrition, Secondary dentine, Dentine transparency, Root resorption, Cementum apposition and Periodontal Disease) changes in teeth qualitatively using scoring system and quantitatively by micrometric method. The present research was designed to establish the reliability of qualitative (method 1) and quantitative (method 2) of age estimation among North Indians and to compare the efficacy of these two methods. Method: 250 single-rooted extracted teeth (18-75 yrs.) were collected from Department of Oral Health Sciences, PGIMER, Chandigarh. Before extraction, periodontal score of each tooth was noted. Labiolingual sections were prepared and examined under light microscope for regressive changes. Each parameter was scored using Gustafson’s 0-3 point score system (qualitative), and total score was calculated. For quantitative method, each regressive change was measured quantitatively in form of 18 micrometric parameters under microscope with the help of measuring eyepiece. Age was estimated using linear and multiple regression analysis in Gustafson’s method and Kedici’s method respectively. Estimated age was compared with actual age on the basis of absolute mean error. Results: In pooled data, by Gustafson’s method, significant correlation (r= 0.8) was observed between total score and actual age. Total score generated an absolute mean error of ±7.8 years. Whereas, for Kedici’s method, a value of correlation coefficient of r=0.5 (p<0.01) was observed between all the eighteen micrometric parameters and known age. Using multiple regression equation, age was estimated, and an absolute mean error of age was found to be ±12.18 years. Conclusion: Gustafson’s (qualitative) method was found to be a better predictor for age estimation among North Indians.

Keywords: forensic odontology, age estimation, North India, teeth

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Authors: H. Ben Salah, A. Gannoun, C. de Peretti, A. Trabelsi

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The Downside Risk (DSR) model for portfolio optimisation allows to overcome the drawbacks of the classical mean-variance model concerning the asymetry of returns and the risk perception of investors. This model optimization deals with a positive definite matrix that is endogenous with respect to portfolio weights. This aspect makes the problem far more difficult to handle. For this purpose, Athayde (2001) developped a new recurcive minimization procedure that ensures the convergence to the solution. However, when a finite number of observations is available, the portfolio frontier presents an appearance which is not very smooth. In order to overcome that, Athayde (2003) proposed a mean kernel estimation of the returns, so as to create a smoother portfolio frontier. This technique provides an effect similar to the case in which we had continuous observations. In this paper, taking advantage on the the robustness of the median, we replace the mean estimator in Athayde's model by a nonparametric median estimator of the returns. Then, we give a new version of the former algorithm (of Athayde (2001, 2003)). We eventually analyse the properties of this improved portfolio frontier and apply this new method on real examples.

Keywords: Downside Risk, Kernel Method, Median, Nonparametric Estimation, Semivariance

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Authors: Muhammad Jabbar

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In this paper we propose two ratio and ratio type exponential estimator for the estimation of population coefficient of variation using the auxiliary information under two-stage sampling. The properties of these estimators are derived up to first order of approximation. The efficiency conditions under which suggested estimator are more efficient, are obtained. Numerical and simulated studies are conducted to support the superiority of the estimators. Theoretically and numerically, we have found that our proposed estimator is always more efficient as compared to its competitor estimator.

Keywords: two-stage sampling, coefficient of variation, ratio type exponential estimator

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Authors: Peristera Baziana

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In this paper, we present a network configuration for a WDM LANs of passive star topology that assume that the set of data WDM channels is split into two separate sets of channels, with different access rights over them. Especially, a synchronous transmission WDMA access algorithm is adopted in order to increase the probability of successful transmission over the data channels and consequently to reduce the probability of data packets transmission cancellation in order to avoid the data channels collisions. Thus, a control pre-transmission access scheme is followed over a separate control channel. An analytical Markovian model is studied and the average throughput is mathematically derived. The performance is studied for several numbers of data channels and various values of control phase duration.

Keywords: access algorithm, channels division, collisions avoidance, wavelength division multiplexing

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Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

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A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

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Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Azzam Alosaimi

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Different countries attempt to reduce energy demands and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate global warming potential. They set different building codes to regulate excessive building’s energy losses. Energy losses occur due to pressure difference between the indoor and outdoor environments, and thus, heat transfers from one region to another. One major sources of energy loss is known as building airtightness. Building airtightness is the fundamental feature of the building envelope that directly impacts infiltration. Most of international building codes require minimum performance for new construction to ensure acceptable airtightness. The execution of airtightness required standards has become more challenging in recent years due to a lack of expertise and equipment, making it costly and time-consuming. Hence, researchers have developed predictive models to predict buildings infiltration rates to meet building codes and to reduce energy and cost. This research applies a theoretical modeling approach using Matlab software to predict mean infiltration rate distributions and total heat loss of Saudi Arabia’s housing stock.

Keywords: infiltration rate, energy demands, heating loss, cooling loss, carbon emissions

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Authors: Huy Hieu Pham, Houssam Salmane, Louahdi Khoudour, Alain Crouzil, Pablo Zegers, Sergio Velastin

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We present a deep learning-based multitask framework for joint 3D human pose estimation and action recognition from color video sequences. Our approach proceeds along two stages. In the first, we run a real-time 2D pose detector to determine the precise pixel location of important key points of the body. A two-stream neural network is then designed and trained to map detected 2D keypoints into 3D poses. In the second, we deploy the Efficient Neural Architecture Search (ENAS) algorithm to find an optimal network architecture that is used for modeling the Spatio-temporal evolution of the estimated 3D poses via an image-based intermediate representation and performing action recognition. Experiments on Human3.6M, Microsoft Research Redmond (MSR) Action3D, and Stony Brook University (SBU) Kinect Interaction datasets verify the effectiveness of the proposed method on the targeted tasks. Moreover, we show that our method requires a low computational budget for training and inference.

Keywords: human action recognition, pose estimation, D-CNN, deep learning

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

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Current real-estate value estimation, difficult for laymen, usually is performed by specialists. This paper presents an automated estimation process based on big data and machine-learning technology that calculates influences of building conditions on real-estate price measurement. The present study analyzed actual building sales sample data for Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, measuring the major influencing factors among the various building conditions. Further to that analysis, a prediction model was established and applied using RapidMiner Studio, a graphical user interface (GUI)-based tool for derivation of machine-learning prototypes. The prediction model is formulated by reference to previous examples. When new examples are applied, it analyses and predicts accordingly. The analysis process discerns the crucial factors effecting price increases by calculation of weighted values. The model was verified, and its accuracy determined, by comparing its predicted values with actual price increases.

Keywords: apartment complex, big data, life-cycle building value analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Kavita Bodke

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Structural health monitoring (SHM) is experiencing growth, necessitating the development of distinct methodologies to address its expanding scope effectively. In this study, we developed automatic structure damage identification, which incorporates three unique types of a building’s structural integrity. The first pertains to the presence of fractures within the structure, the second relates to the issue of dampness within the structure, and the third involves corrosion inside the structure. This study employs image classification techniques to discern between intact and impaired structures within structural data. The aim of this research is to find automatic damage detection with the probability of each damage class being present in one image. Based on this probability, we know which class has a higher probability or is more affected than the other classes. Utilizing photographs captured by a mobile camera serves as the input for an image classification system. Image classification was employed in our study to perform multi-class and multi-label classification. The objective was to categorize structural data based on the presence of cracks, moisture, and corrosion. In the context of multi-class image classification, our study employed three distinct methodologies: Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, and CNN. For the task of multi-label image classification, the models employed were Rasnet, Xceptionet, and Inception.

Keywords: SHM, CNN, deep learning, multi-class classification, multi-label classification

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Authors: Jude Inwumoh, Adam P. R. Taylor, Kosala Gunawardane

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Modular multilevel converters (MMC) exhibit a highly scalable and modular characteristic with good voltage/power expansion, fault tolerance capability, low output harmonic content, good redundancy, and a flexible front-end configuration. Fault detection, location, and isolation, as well as maintaining fault ride-through (FRT), are major challenges to MMC reliability and power supply sustainability. Different papers have been reviewed to seek the best MMC configuration with fault capability. DC faults are the most common fault, while the probability that AC fault occurs in a modular multilevel converter (MCC) is low; though, AC faults consequence are severe. This paper reviews several MMC topologies and modulation techniques in tackling faults. These fault control strategies are compared based on cost, complexity, controllability, and power loss. A meshed network of half-bridge (HB) MMC topology was optimal in rendering fault ride through than any other MMC topologies but only when combined with DC circuit breakers (CBS), AC CBS, and fault current limiters (FCL).

Keywords: MMC-HVDC, DC faults, fault current limiters, control scheme

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Authors: Dolly Kumari, H. Lhungdim

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Maternal health is one of the crucial health indicators for any country. 5th goal of Millennium Development Goals is also emphasising on improvement of maternal health. Soon after Independence government of India realizing the importance of maternal and child health care services, and took steps to strengthen in 1st and 2nd five year plans. In past decade the other health indicator which is life expectancy at birth has been observed remarkable improvement. But still maternal mortality is high in India and in some states it is observe much higher than national average. Government of India pour lots of fund and initiate National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in 2005 to improve maternal health in country by providing affordable and accessible health care services. Accredited Social Heath Activist (ASHA) is one of the key components of the NRHM. Mainly ASHAs are selected female aged 25-45 years from village itself and accountable for the monitoring of maternal health care for the same village. ASHA are trained to works as an interface between the community and public health system. This study tries to assess the role of ASHA in utilizing maternal health care services and to see the level of awareness about benefits given under JSY scheme and utilization of those benefits by eligible women. For the study concurrent evaluation data from National Rural health Mission (NRHM), initiated by government of India in 2005 has been used. This study is based on 78205 currently married women from 70 different districts of India. Descriptive statistics, chi2 test and binary logistic regression have been used for analysis. The probability of institutional delivery increases by 2.03 times (p<0.001) while if ASHA arranged or helped in arranging transport facility the probability of institutional delivery is increased by 1.67 times (p<0.01) than if she is not arranging transport facility. Further if ASHA facilitated to get JSY card to the pregnant women probability of going for full ANC is increases by 1.36 times (p<0.05) than reference. However if ASHA discuses about institutional delivery and approaches to get register than probability of getting TT injection is 1.88 and 1.64 times (p<0.01) higher than that if she did not discus. Further, Probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 years. The probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 year of age than before 18 years, it is also 1.28 times (p<0.001) and 1.32 times (p<0.001) higher among women have 1 to 8 year of schooling and with 9 and above years of schooling respectively than the women who never attended school. Those women who are working have 1.13 times (p<0.001) higher probability of getting benefits from JSY scheme than not working women. Surprisingly women belongs to wealthiest quintile are .53times (P<0.001) less aware about JSY scheme. Results conclude that work done by ASHA has great influence on maternal health care utilization in India. But results also show that still substantial numbers of needed population are far from utilization of these services. Place of delivery is significantly influenced by referral and transport facility arranged by ASHA.

Keywords: institutional delivery, JSY beneficiaries, referral faculty, public health

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Authors: Asha Manoharan, Sooraj A. O, Anju K. G

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Enlarged vestibular aqueduct (EVA) refers to the presence of congenital sensorineural hearing loss with an enlarged vestibular aqueduct. The Audiological symptoms of EVA are fluctuating and progressive in nature and the diagnosis of EVAS can be confirmed only with radiological evaluation. Hence it is difficult to differentiate EVA from conditions like Meniere’s disease, semi-circular dehiscence, etc based on audiological findings alone. EVA in adults is easy to identify due to distinct vestibular symptoms. In children, EVA can remain either unidentified or misdiagnosed until the vestibular symptoms are evident. Motor developmental delay, especially the ones involving a change of body alignment, has been reported in the pediatric population with EVA. So, it should be made mandatory to recommend radiological evaluation in young children with fluctuating hearing loss reporting with motor developmental delay. This single case study of a baby with Enlarged Vestibular Aqueduct (EVA) primarily aimed to address the following: a) Challenges while diagnosing young patients with EVA and fluctuating hearing loss, b) Importance of radiological evaluation in audiological diagnosis in the pediatric population, c) Need for regular monitoring of hearing, hearing aid performance, and cochlear implant mapping closely for potential fluctuations in such populations, d) Importance of reviewing developmental, language milestones in very young children with fluctuating hearing loss.

Keywords: enlarged vestibular aqueduct (EVA), motor delay, radiological evaluation, fluctuating hearing loss, cochlear implant

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Authors: Kouzi Katia

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This paper proposes a Direct Torque Control (DTC) algorithm of dual Stator Induction Motor (DSIM) drive using two approach intelligent techniques: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach replaces the switching table selector block of conventional DTC and Mamdani Fuzzy Logic controller (FLC) is used for stator resistance estimation. The fuzzy estimation method is based on an online stator resistance correction through the variations of stator current estimation error and its variation. The fuzzy logic controller gives the future stator resistance increment at the output. The main advantage of suggested algorithm control is to reduce the hardware complexity of conventional selectors, to avoid the drive instability that may occur in certain situation and ensure the tracking of the actual of the stator resistance. The effectiveness of the technique and the improvement of the whole system performance are proved by results.

Keywords: artificial neural network, direct torque control, dual stator induction motor, fuzzy logic estimator, switching table

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Authors: Patarapan Odton

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This study investigates demographic and socio-economic factors of breastfeeding practice, including exclusively breastfeeding among children in Thailand using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS3 and MICS4). Logistic regression models were used to examine the determinants of initial breastfeeding, exclusively breastfeeding, and predominant breastfeeding, using data from women and children section of the survey. For initial breastfeeding, women live in rural area were more likely to start breastfeeding within one day of birth rather than who live in urban area in both round of the surveys. In year 2012, there were significantly higher probabilities of women in rural area started breastfeeding within one hour of birth compare to urban area. Women in southern Thailand have higher probabilities of start breastfeeding within one hour and one day than women in Bangkok and central region. During the year 2005-2006, children aged less than 5 years old lived in rural area have been breastfed higher than children in urban area. Children live in the northeast region were more likely to have been breastfed than the other regions. Only the second wealth quintile group was significant higher probability of ever been breastfed than the poorest group. The findings in the second round of the survey are different from the year 2005-06. In 2012, there was no difference in probability of ever been breastfed among children live in urban and rural area, children in Bangkok and central region were less probability of ever been breastfed than the others.

Keywords: Breastfeeding, Exclusive Breastfeeding, Predominant Breastfeeding, Urban-Rural Difference

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Authors: Osamu Komori, Shinto Eguchi, Hiroshi Okamura, Momoko Ichinokawa

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The long time-series data on population assessments are essential for global ecosystem assessment because the temporal change of biomass in such a database reflects the status of global ecosystem properly. However, the available assessment data usually have limited sample sizes and the ratio of populations with low abundance of biomass (collapsed) to those with high abundance (non-collapsed) is highly imbalanced. To allow for the imbalance and uncertainty involved in the ecological data, we propose a binary regression model with mixed effects for inferring ecosystem status through an asymmetric logistic model. In the estimation equation, we observe that the weights for the non-collapsed populations are relatively reduced, which in turn puts more importance on the small number of observations of collapsed populations. Moreover, we extend the asymmetric logistic regression model using propensity score to allow for the sample biases observed in the labeled and unlabeled datasets. It robustified the estimation procedure and improved the model fitting.

Keywords: double robust estimation, ecological binary data, mixed effect logistic regression model, propensity score

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Authors: Okezie A. Ihugba

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The bounds testing ARDL (2, 2, 2, 2, 0) technique to cointegration was used in this study to investigate the effect of energy consumption and energy loss on Nigeria's manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2020. The model was created to determine the relationship between these three variables while also accounting for interactions with control variables such as inflation and commercial bank loans to the manufacturing sector. When the dependent variables are energy consumption and energy loss, the bounds tests show that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run. Because electricity consumption is a critical factor in determining manufacturing value-added in Nigeria, some intriguing observations were made. According to the findings, the relationship between LELC and LMVA is statistically significant. According to the findings, electricity consumption reduces manufacturing value-added. The target variable (energy loss) is statistically significant and has a positive sign. In Nigeria, a 1% reduction in energy loss increases manufacturing value-added by 36% in the first lag and 35% in the second. According to the study, the government should speed up the ongoing renovation of existing power plants across the country, as well as the construction of new gas-fired power plants. This will address a number of issues, including overpricing of electricity as a result of grid failure.

Keywords: L60, Q43, H81, C52, E31, ARDL, cointegration, Nigeria's manufacturing

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Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: N. F. Mikhailova, M. E. Fattakhova, M. A. Mironova, E. V. Vyacheslavova

Abstract:

For the mental and social adaptation of the deaf and hard-of-hearing people, cultural and social aspects - the formation of identity (acculturation) and educational conditions – are highly significant. We studied 137 deaf and hard-of-hearing students in different educational situations. We used these methods: Big Five (Costa & McCrae, 1997), TRF (Becker, 1989), WCQ (Lazarus & Folkman, 1988), self-esteem, and coping strategies (Jambor & Elliott, 2005), self-stigma scale (Mikhailov, 2008). Type of self-identification of students depended on the degree of deafness, type of education, method of communication in the family: large hearing loss, education in schools for deaf, and gesture communication increased the likelihood of a 'deaf' acculturation. Less hearing loss, inclusive education in public school or school for the hearing-impaired, mixed communication in the family contributed to the formation of 'hearing' acculturation. The choice of specific coping depended on the degree of deafness: a large hearing loss increased coping 'withdrawal into the deaf world' and decreased 'bicultural skills' coping. People with mild hearing loss tended to cover-up it. In the context of ongoing discussion, we researched personality characteristics in deaf and hard on-hearing students, coping and other deafness associated factors depending on their acculturation type. Students who identified themselves with the 'hearing world' had a high self-esteem, a higher level of extraversion, self-awareness, personal resources, willingness to cooperate, better psychological health, emotional stability, higher ability to empathy, a greater satiety of life with feelings and sense and high sense of self-worth. They also actively used strategies, problem-solving, acceptance of responsibility, positive revaluation. Student who limited themselves within the culture of deaf people had more severe hearing loss and accordingly had more communication barriers. Lack of use or seldom use of coping strategies by these students point at decreased level of stress in their life. Their self-esteem have not been challenged in the specific social environment of the students with the same severity of defect, and thus this environment provided sense of comfort (we can assume that from the high scores on psychological health, personality resources, and emotional stability). Students with bicultural acculturation had higher level of psychological resources - they used Positive Reappraisal coping more often and had a higher level of psychological health. Lack of belonging to certain culture (marginality) leads to personality disintegration, social and psychological disadaptation: deaf and hard-of-hearing students with marginal identification had a lower self-estimation level, worse psychological health and personal resources, lower level of extroversion, self-confidence and life satisfaction. They, in fact, become 'risk group' (many of them dropped out of universities, divorced, and one even ended up in the ranks of ISIS). All these data argue the importance of cultural 'anchor' for people with hearing deprivation. Supported by the RFBR No 19-013-00406.

Keywords: acculturation, coping, deafness, marginality

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Authors: Harsh Agarwal, Pratikkumar Patel, Maharshi Pathak

Abstract:

Recently the low prices of Crude oil and increase in strict environmental regulations limit limits the use of diesel based muds as these muds are relatively costlier and toxic, as a result disposal of cuttings into the eco-system is a major issue faced by the drilling industries. To overcome these issues faced by the Oil Industry, an attempt has been made to develop oil-in-water emulsion mud system using nettlespurge oil. Nettlespurge oil could be easily available and its cost is around ₹30/litre which is about half the price of diesel in India. Oil-based mud (OBM) was formulated with Nettlespurge oil extracted from Nettlespurge seeds using the Soxhlet extraction method. The formulated nettlespurge oil mud properties were analysed with diesel oil mud properties. The compared properties were rheological properties, yield point and gel strength, and mud density and filtration loss properties, fluid loss and filter cake. The mud density measurement showed that nettlespurge OBM was slightly higher than diesel OBM with mud density values of 9.175 lb/gal and 8.5 lb/gal, respectively, at barite content of 70 g. Thus it has a higher lubricating property. Additionally, the filtration loss test results showed that nettlespurge mud fluid loss volumes, oil was 11 ml, compared to diesel oil mud volume of 15 ml. The filtration loss test indicated that the nettlespurge oil mud with filter cake thickness of 2.2 mm had a cake characteristic of thin and squashy while the diesel oil mud resulted in filter cake thickness of 2.7 mm with cake characteristic of tenacious, rubbery and resilient. The filtration loss test results showed that nettlespurge oil mud fluid loss volumes was much less than the diesel based oil mud. The filtration loss test indicated that the nettlespurge oil mud filter cake thickness less than the diesel oil mud filter cake thickness. So Low formation damage and the emulsion stability effect was analysed with this experiment. The nettlespurge oil-in-water mud system had lower coefficient of friction than the diesel oil based mud system. All the rheological properties have shown better results relative to the diesel based oil mud. Therefore, with all the above mentioned factors and with the data of the conducted experiment we could conclude that the Nettlespurge oil based mud is economically and well as eco-logically much more feasible than the worn out and shabby diesel-based oil mud in the Drilling Industry.

Keywords: economical feasible, ecological feasible, emulsion stability, nettle spurge oil, rheological properties, soxhlet extraction method

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Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the bit error rate (BER) performance of MIMO-OFDM communication system. MIMO system uses multiple transmitting and receiving antennas with different coding techniques to either enhance the transmission diversity or spatial multiplexing gain. Utilizing alamouti algorithm were the same information transmitted over multiple antennas at different time intervals and then collected again at the receivers to minimize the probability of error, combat fading and thus improve the received signal to noise ratio. While utilizing V-BLAST algorithm, the transmitted signals are divided into different transmitting channels and transferred over the channel to be received by different receiving antennas to increase the transmitted data rate and achieve higher throughput. The paper provides a study of different diversity gain coding schemes and spatial multiplexing coding for MIMO systems. A comparison of various channels' estimation and equalization techniques are given. The simulation is implemented using MATLAB, and the results had shown the performance of transmission models under different channel environments.

Keywords: MIMO communication, BER, space codes, channels, alamouti, V-BLAST

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Authors: Akash Verma, Sujit Kumar Samanta

Abstract:

This study examines a discrete-time Geo/G/1 queueing-inventory system attached with (s, Q) inventory policy. Assume that the customers follow the Bernoulli process on arrival. Each customer demands a single item with arbitrarily distributed service time. The inventory is replenished by an outside supplier, and the lead time for the replenishment is determined by a geometric distribution. There is a single server and infinite waiting space in this facility. Demands must wait in the specified waiting area during a stock-out period. The customers are served on a first-come-first-served basis. With the help of the embedded Markov chain technique, we determine the joint probability distributions of the number of customers in the system and the number of items in stock at the post-departure epoch using the Matrix Analytic approach. We relate the system length distribution at post-departure and outside observer's epochs to determine the joint probability distribution at the outside observer's epoch. We use probability distributions at random epochs to determine the waiting time distribution. We obtain the performance measures to construct the cost function. The optimum values of the order quantity and reordering point are found numerically for the variety of model parameters.

Keywords: discrete-time queueing inventory model, matrix analytic method, waiting-time analysis, cost optimization

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Authors: David A. Padilla, Rodolfo Villamizar

Abstract:

In recent years, closed loop control strategies have been developed in order to establish a healthy glucose profile in type 1 diabetic mellitus (T1DM) patients. However, the controller itself is unable to define a suitable reference trajectory for glucose. In this paper, a control strategy Is proposed where the shape of the reference trajectory is generated bases in the amount of carbohydrates present during the digestive process, due to the effect of carbohydrate intake. Since there no exists a sensor to measure the amount of carbohydrates consumed, an estimator is proposed. Thus this paper presents the entire process of designing a carbohydrate estimator, which allows estimate disturbance for a predictive controller (MPC) in a T1MD patient, the estimation will be used to establish a profile of reference and improve the response of the controller by providing the estimated information of ingested carbohydrates. The dynamics of the diabetic model used are due to the equations described by the UVA/Padova model of the T1DMS simulator, the system was developed and simulated in Simulink, taking into account the noise and limitations of the glucose control system actuators.

Keywords: estimation, glucose control, predictive controller, MPC, UVA/Padova

Procedia PDF Downloads 254