Search results for: demand%20response%20managment

Authors: Abdulla Rahil, Rupert Gammon, Neil Brown

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The rapid growth of renewable energy sources and their integration into the grid have been motivated by the depletion of fossil fuels and environmental issues. Unfortunately, the grid is unable to cope with the predicted growth of renewable energy which would lead to its instability. To solve this problem, energy storage devices could be used. Electrolytic hydrogen production from an electrolyser is considered a promising option since it is a clean energy source (zero emissions). Choosing flexible operation of an electrolyser (producing hydrogen during the off-peak electricity period and stopping at other times) could bring about many benefits like reducing the cost of hydrogen and helping to balance the electric systems. This paper investigates the price of hydrogen during flexible operation compared with continuous operation, while serving the customer (hydrogen filling station) without interruption. The optimization algorithm is applied to investigate the hydrogen station in both cases (flexible and continuous operation). Three different scenarios are tested to see whether the off-peak electricity price could enhance the reduction of the hydrogen cost. These scenarios are: Standard tariff (1 tier system) during the day (assumed 12 p/kWh) while still satisfying the demand for hydrogen; using off-peak electricity at a lower price (assumed 5 p/kWh) and shutting down the electrolyser at other times; using lower price electricity at off-peak times and high price electricity at other times. This study looks at Derna city, which is located on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea (32° 46′ 0 N, 22° 38′ 0 E) with a high potential for wind resource. Hourly wind speed data which were collected over 24½ years from 1990 to 2014 were in addition to data on hourly radiation and hourly electricity demand collected over a one-year period, together with the petrol station data.

Keywords: hydrogen filling station off-peak electricity, renewable energy, off-peak electricity, electrolytic hydrogen

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Authors: Fikre Belay Tekulu

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This thesis presents the socio-economic and environmental impacts of urban sprawl in the case of Adigrat city, Tigray Region, Ethiopia. The main objective of this research is to assess major causes, trends and socio-economic and environmental impacts of the urban sprawl of Adigrat city. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative methods as questionnaires, interviews and observation used for data collection. Simple random sampling has been used to select the participants. The land use and land cover change for agricultural land and forest and grassland resource analysis is done with the aid of GIS. Urban sprawl is mainly caused by the rapid population growth, increase in the living and property cost in the core of the city, land demand and land speculation and the growth of transport and an increase in income of people and demand of more living space. The study indicates 15726.24 hectares (515.49 per cent) of new land added to the city jurisdiction from its adjacent Gantafeshum Wereda between 1986 and 2018. The population of Adigrat city increased by 9.045 per cent per year, while the city expanded 16.01 per cent per annum and the LCR was 0.0233 hectares per person between 1986 and 2018.Built-up area increased by 35.27 per cent per annum, while agricultural land, forests and grassland cover decreased by 1.68 per cent and 1.26 per cent per annum respectively in the last thirty three years. This rapid growth of urban sprawl brought social-economic and environmental change in the city that has been observed by the city residents. Therefore, the city administration should need strong, integrated, effective and efficient work, with its neighbor rural area and also done timely preparation, implementation, supervision, and evaluation of the structural plan of the city to bring out sustainable development of the city.

Keywords: cause, , trends, urban sprawl, land use land cover, GIS

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Authors: Fei Chen, Wei Lu, Jun Cai

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During the Twelve Five period, China promulgated industrial policies promoting the relocation of energy-intensive industries to coastal areas in order to utilize marine shipping resources. Consequently, some major state-owned steel and gas enterprises have relocated and resulted in a large-scale coastal area development. However, some land may have been over-exploited with seamless coastline projects. To balance between employment and housing, new industrial coastal towns were constructed to support the industrial-led development. In this paper, we adopt a case-study approach to closely examine the development of several new industrial coastal towns of Liaoning Province situated in the Bohai Bay area, which is currently under rapid economic growth. Our investigations reflect the common phenomenon of long distance commuting and a massive amount of vacant residences. More specifically, large plant relocation caused hundreds of kilometers of daily commute and enterprises had to provide housing subsidies and education incentives to motivate employees to relocate to coastal areas. Nonetheless, many employees still refuse to relocate due to job stability, diverse needs of family members and access to convenient services. These employees averaged 4 hours of commute daily and some who lived further had to reside in temporary industrial housing units and subject to long-term family separation. As a result, only a small portion of employees purchase new coastal residences but mostly for investment and retirement purposes, leading to massive vacancy and ghost-town phenomenon. In contrast to the low demand, coastal areas tend to develop large amount of residences prior to industrial relocation, which may be directly related to local government finances. Some local governments have sold residential land to developers to general revenue to support the subsequent industrial development. Subject to the strong preference of ocean-view, residential housing developers tend to select coast-line land to construct new residential towns, which further reduces the access of marine resources for major industrial enterprises. This violates the original intent of developing industrial coastal towns and drastically limits the availability of marine resources. Lastly, we analyze the co-existence of over-exploiting residential areas and massive vacancies in reference to the demand and supply of land, as well as the demand of residential housing units with the choice criteria of enterprise employees.

Keywords: coastal industry town, commuter traffic, employment-housing space, outer suburb industrial area

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Authors: Neslihan Ozman Say, Jim Gilmour, Pratik Desai, William Zimmerman

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Landfill leachate treatment has been attracting researchers recently for various environmental and economical reasons. Leachate discharge to receiving waterbodies without treatment causes serious detrimental effects including partial oxygen depletion due to high biological oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentrations besides toxicity of heavy metals it contains and high ammonia concentrations. In this study, it is aimed to show microalgal ammonia removal performances of a wild microalgae consortia as an alternative treatment method and determine the dominant leachate tolerant species for this consortia. For the microalgae species identification experiments a microalgal consortium which has been isolated from a local pond in Sheffield inoculated in %5 diluted raw landfill leachate and acclimated to the leachate by batch feeding for a month. In order to determine the most tolerant microalgal consortium, four different untreated landfill leachate samples have been used as diluted in four different ratios as 5%, 10%, 20%, and 40%. Microalgae cell samples have been collected from all experiment sets and have been examined by using 18S rDNA sequencing and specialised gel electrophoresis which are adapted molecular biodiversity methods. The best leachate tolerant algal consortium is being used in order to determine ammonia removal performances of the culture in a microbubble assisted photobioreactor (PBR). A porous microbubble diffuser which is supported by a fluidic oscillator is being used for dosing CO₂ and air mixture in the PBR. It is known that high mass transfer performance of microbubble technology provides a better removal efficiency and a better mixing in the photobioreactor. Ammonia concentrations and microalgal growth are being monitored for PBR currently. It is aimed to present all the results of the study in final paper submission.

Keywords: ammonia removal from leachate, landfill leachate treatment, microalgae species identification, microbubble assisted photobioreactors

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Authors: Fatma Ünal, Hasancan Okutan

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Increasing worldwide population and technological requirements lead to an increase in energy demand every year. The demand has been mainly supplied from fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum due to insufficient natural gas resources. In recent years, the amount of coal reserves has reached almost 21 billion tons in Türkiye. These are mostly lignite (%92,7), that contains high levels of moisture and sulfur components. Underground coal gasification technology is one of the most suitable methods in comparison with direct combustion techniques for the evaluation of such coal types. In this study, the applicability of the underground coal gasification process is investigated in the Eskişehir-Alpu lignite reserve as a pilot region, both technologically and economically. It is assumed that the electricity is produced from the obtained synthesis gas in an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC). Firstly, an equilibrium model has been developed by using the thermodynamic properties of the gasification reactions. The effect of the type of oxidizing gas, the sulfur content of coal, the rate of water vapor/air, and the pressure of the system have been investigated to find optimum process conditions. Secondly, the parallel and linear controlled recreation and injection point (CRIP) models were implemented as drilling methods, and costs were calculated under the different oxidizing agents (air and high-purity O2). In Parallel CRIP (P-CRIP), drilling cost is found to be lower than the linear CRIP (L-CRIP) since two coal beds simultaneously are gasified. It is seen that CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) technology was the most effective unit on the total cost in both models. The cost of the synthesis gas produced varies between 0,02 $/Mcal and 0,09 $/Mcal. This is the promising result when considering the selling price of Türkiye natural gas for Q1-2023 (0.103 $ /Mcal).

Keywords: energy, lignite reserve, techno-economic analysis, underground coal gasification.

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Authors: A. Paz, S. Cortés Diéguez, J. M. Cruz, A. B. Moldes, J. M. Domínguez

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Synthetic dyes are extensively used in the paper, food, leather, cosmetics, pharmaceutical and textile industries. Wastewater resulting from their production means several environmental problems. Improper disposal of theirs effluents involves adverse impacts and not only about the colour, also on water quality (Total Organic Carbon, Biological Oxygen Demand, Chemical Oxygen Demand, suspended solids, salinity, etc.) on flora (inhibition of photosynthetic activity), fauna (toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic effects) and human health. The aim of this work is to optimize the decolourisation process of different types of dyes by Bacillus aryabhattai. Initially, different types of dyes (Indigo Carmine, Coomassie Brilliant Blue and Remazol Brilliant Blue R) and suitable culture media (Nutritive Broth, Luria Bertani Broth and Trypticasein Soy Broth) were selected. Then, a central composite design (CCD) was employed to optimise and analyse the significance of each abiotic parameter. Three process variables (temperature, salt concentration and agitation) were investigated in the CCD at 3 levels with 2-star points. A total of 23 experiments were carried out according to a full factorial design, consisting of 8 factorial experiments (coded to the usual ± 1 notation), 6 axial experiments (on the axis at a distance of ± α from the centre), and 9 replicates (at the centre of the experimental domain). Experiments results suggest the efficiency of this strain to remove the tested dyes on the 3 media studied, although Trypticasein Soy Broth (TSB) was the most suitable medium. Indigo Carmine and Coomassie Brilliant Blue at maximal tested concentration 150 mg/l were completely decolourised, meanwhile, an acceptable removal was observed using the more complicate dye Remazol Brilliant Blue R at a concentration of 50 mg/l.

Keywords: Bacillus aryabhattai, dyes, decolourisation, central composite design

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Stephan Schroeder, Marcel Faulhaber

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Companies are facing an increasing pressure to innovate faster, cheaper and more radical in last years, due to shrinking product lifecycles and higher volatility of markets and customer demands. Especially established companies struggle meeting those demands. Thus, many producing companies are adapting their development processes to address this increasing pressure. One approach taken by many companies is the use of agile, highly iterative development processes to reduce development times and costs as well as to increase the fulfilled customer requirements and the realized level of innovation. At the same time decreasing depths of added value and increasing focus on core competencies as well as a growing product complexity result in a high dependency on suppliers and external development partners during the product development. Thus, a successful introduction of agile development methods into the development of physical products requires also a successful integration of the necessary external partners and suppliers into the new processes and procedures and an adaption of the organizational interfaces to external partners according to the new circumstances and requirements of agile development processes. For an effective and efficient product development, the design of customer-supplier-relationships should be demand-oriented. A significant influence on the required design has the characteristics of the procurement object. Examples therefore are the complexity of technical interfaces between supply object and final product or the importance of the supplied component for the major product functionalities. Thus, this paper presents an approach to derive general requirements on the design of supplier integration according to the characteristics of supply objects. First, therefore the most relevant evaluation criteria and characteristics have been identified based on a thorough literature review. Subsequently the resulting requirements on the design of the supplier integration were derived depending on the different possible values of these criteria.

Keywords: iterative development processes, agile new product development, procurement, supplier integration

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Authors: Bela Lebedeva

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Characteristics of the Web as a channel of information dissemination - accessibility and openness, interactivity and multimedia news - become wider and cover the audience quickly, positively affecting the perception of content, but blur out the understanding of the journalistic work. As a result audience and advertisers continue migrating to the Internet. Moreover, online targeting allows monetizing not only the audience (as customarily given to traditional media) but also the content and traffic more accurately. While the users identify themselves with the qualitative characteristics of the new market, its actors are formed. Conflict of interests is laid in the base of the economy of their relations, the problem of traffic tax as an example. Meanwhile, content monetization actualizes fiscal interest of the state too. The balance of supply and demand is often violated due to the political risks, particularly in terms of state capitalism, populism and authoritarian methods of governance such social institutions as the media. A unique example of access to journalistic material, limited by monetization of content is a television channel Dozhd' (Rain) in Russian web space. Its liberal-minded audience has a better possibility for discussion. However, the channel could have been much more successful in terms of unlimited free speech. Avoiding state pressure and censorship its management has decided to save at least online performance and monetizing all of the content for the core audience. The study Methodology was primarily based on the analysis of journalistic content, on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the audience. Reconstructing main events and relationships of actors on the market for the last six years researcher has reached some conclusions. First, under the condition of content monetization the capitalization of its quality will always strive to quality characteristics of user, thereby identifying him. Vice versa, the user's demand generates high-quality journalism. The second conclusion follows the previous one. The growth of technology, information noise, new political challenges, the economy volatility and the cultural paradigm change – all these factors form the content paying model for an individual user. This model defines him as a beneficiary of specific knowledge and indicates the constant balance of supply and demand other conditions being equal. As a result, a new economic quality of information is created. This feature is an indicator of the market as a self-regulated system. Monetized information quality is less popular than that of the Public Broadcasting Service, but this audience is able to make decisions. These very users keep the niche sectors which have more potential of technology development, including the content monetization ways. The third point of the study allows develop it in the discourse of media space liberalization. This cultural phenomenon may open opportunities for the development of social and economic relations architecture both locally and regionally.

Keywords: content monetization, state capitalism, media liberalization, media economy, information quality

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Authors: Ezra N. S. Lockhart

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The number of children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has increased approximately 173% during the last decade making ASD the fastest growing developmental disability in the United States. This rise in prevalence rates indeed has an effect on schools. ASD is overwhelmingly the most reported primary special education eligibility category for students accessing special education, at a national average of 61.3%. ASD is regarded as an urgent public health concern at an estimated annual per capita cost of $3.2 million. Furthermore, considering that ASD is a lifelong disorder estimated lifetime per capita cost reach $35 billion. The resources available to special education programs are insufficient to meet the educational needs of the 6.4 million students receiving special educational services. This is especially true given that there has been and continues to be a chronic shortage of fully certified special education teachers for decades. Reports indicate that 81.1% of students with special needs spend 40% or more in general education classrooms. Regardless of whether support is implemented in the special education or general education classroom the resource demand is obvious. Schools are actively seeking to implement low-cost alternatives and budget saving measures in response to this demand. In public school settings, programs such as Applied Behavior Analysis are challenging to implement and fund at $40,000 per student per year. As an alternative, computer-based interventions are inexpensive, less time-consuming to implement, and require minimal teacher or paraprofessional training to administer. Affordability, pricing schemes, availability, and compatibility of computer-based interventions that support social and emotional skill development in individuals with ASD are discussed.

Keywords: affordability, autism spectrum disorder, computer-based intervention, emotional skills, social skills

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Authors: Yenesew Mengiste Yihun, Abraham Mehari Haile, Teklu Erkossa, Bart Schultz

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Teff (Eragrostic tef) is a staple food in Ethiopia. The local and international demand for the crop is ever increasing pushing the current price five times compared with that in 2006. To meet this escalating demand increasing production including using irrigation is imperative. Optimum application of irrigation water, especially in semi-arid areas is profoundly important. AquaCrop model application in irrigation water scheduling and simulation of water productivity helps both irrigation planners and agricultural water managers. This paper presents simulation and evaluation of AquaCrop model in optimizing the yield and biomass response to variation in timing and rate of irrigation water application. Canopy expansion, canopy senescence and harvest index are the key physiological processes sensitive to water stress. For full irrigation water application treatment there was a strong relationship between the measured and simulated canopy and biomass with r2 and d values of 0.87 and 0.96 for canopy and 0.97 and 0.74 for biomass, respectively. However, the model under estimated the simulated yield and biomass for higher water stress level. For treatment receiving full irrigation the harvest index value obtained were 29%. The harvest index value shows generally a decreasing trend under water stress condition. AquaCrop model calibration and validation using the dry season field experiments of 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 shows that AquaCrop adequately simulated the yield response to different irrigation water scenarios. We conclude that the AquaCrop model can be used in irrigation water scheduling and optimizing water productivity of Teff grown under water scarce semi-arid conditions.

Keywords: AquaCrop, climate smart agriculture, simulation, teff, water security, water stress regions

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Authors: Rameshwar Dahal, S. Ping Ho

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Although the demand for infrastructure development forms a promising market opportunity for international firms, the dominance of informal institutions over formal ones, investors are facing extraordinary institutional challenges when investing in emerging Least Developed Countries (LDCs). We believe that, in emerging LDCs, the project performance heavily depends on how well the entrants respond to the challenges exerted by the host institutional environments. Which primarily depends on how much they learn about the host institution and what strategy they apply in response. In Nepal, almost all international or global infrastructure projects are financed by international financers, so the procurement process of the infrastructure projects financed by foreign agencies is guided by the policies and regulations of the financer. Because of limited resources and the financers’ demand, contractors and consults are procured internationally. Moreover, the resources, including but not limited to construction material, manpower, and equipment, also need to be imported. Therefore, the involvement of international companies as an entrant in global infrastructure projects of LDCs is obvious. In a global project (GP), participants from different geographical and institutional environments hold different beliefs and have disparate interests. Therefore, the entrants face the challenges exerted by the host institutional environments. The entrants must either adapt to the institutions prevailing in the environment or resist the institutional pressures. It is hypothesized that, in emerging LDCs, the project performance heavily depends on how much the entrants learn about the host institutional knowledge and how well they respond to the institutional environments. While it is impossible to generalize the phenomenon and contextual conditions because of their vast diversity, this study has answered why and how participants’ level of institutional knowledge impacts the project's implementation performance. To draw that conclusion, firstly, we explored two typical GPs from Nepal. For this study, the data were collected by conducting interviews and examining the secondary data, such as the project reports published by the financers, project data provided by interviewees, and news reports. In an event analysis, firstly, we identify the sources, causes, or nature of the institutional challenges; secondly, we analyze the entrant’s responses to the exerted challenges and evaluate the impacts of the responses on the overall project performance. In this study, at first, the events occurred during the project implementation process have a causal link with the local institutions that demand the entrants’ response are extracted. Secondly, each event is scrutinized as the critical success factor of the case project. Finally, it is crucially examined whether and what institutional knowledge in these events played a critical role in project success or failure. The results also provide insights into the crucial institutional knowledge in LDCs and the subsequent strategy implications for undertaking projects in LDCs.

Keywords: emerging countries, LDC, project management, project performance, institutional knowledge, institutional theory

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Authors: Boce Zhang, Yaguang Luo

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Ripening of climacteric fruits, such as bananas and avocados, are usually initiated days prior to the retail marketing. However, upon the onset of irreversible ripening, they undergo rapid spoilage if not consumed within a narrow climacteric time window. Controlled ripening of climacteric fruits is a critical step to provide consumers with high-quality products while reducing postharvest losses and food waste. There is a high demand for technologies that can retard the ripening process or enable accelerated ripening immediately before consumption. In this work, metal−organic framework (MOF) was developed as a solid porous matrix to encapsulate gaseous hormone, including ethylene, for subsequent application. The feasibility of the on-demand stimulated ripening of bananas and avocados is also evaluated. MOF was synthesized and loaded with ethylene gas. The MOF−ethylene was placed inside sealed containers with preclimacteric bananas and avocados and stored at 16 °C. The fruits were treated for 24-48 hours, and evaluated for ripening progress. Results indicate that MOF−ethylene treatment significantly accelerated the ripening-related changes of color and textural properties in treated bananas and avocados. The average ripening period for both avocados and bananas were reduced in half by using this method. No significant differences of quality characteristics at respective ripening stages were observed between produce ripened via MOF-ethylene versus exogenously supplied ethylene gas or endogenously produced ethylene. Solid MOF matrices could have multiple advantages compared to existing systems, including easy to transport and safe to use by minimally trained produce handlers and consumers. We envision that this technology can help tackle food waste challenges at the critical retail and consumer stages in the food supply chain.

Keywords: climacteric produce, controllable ripening, food waste challenge, metal organic framework

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Authors: Chin-Chia Jane

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In a transportation network, travel time refers to the transmission time from source node to destination node, whereas reliability refers to the probability of a successful connection from source node to destination node. With an increasing emphasis on quality of service (QoS), both performance indexes are significant in the design and analysis of transportation systems. In this work, we extend the well-known flow network model for transportation networks so that travel time and reliability are integrated into the QoS measurement simultaneously. In the extended model, in addition to the general arc capacities, each intermediate node has a time weight which is the travel time for per unit of commodity going through the node. Meanwhile, arcs and nodes are treated as binary random variables that switch between operation and failure with associated probabilities. For pre-specified travel time limitation and demand requirement, the QoS of a transportation network is the probability that source can successfully transport the demand requirement to destination while the total transmission time is under the travel time limitation. This work is pioneering, since existing literatures that evaluate travel time reliability via a single optimization path, the proposed QoS focuses the performance of the whole network system. To compute the QoS of transportation networks, we first transfer the extended network model into an equivalent min-cost max-flow network model. In the transferred network, each arc has a new travel time weight which takes value 0. Each intermediate node is replaced by two nodes u and v, and an arc directed from u to v. The newly generated nodes u and v are perfect nodes. The new direct arc has three weights: travel time, capacity, and operation probability. Then the universal set of state vectors is recursively decomposed into disjoint subsets of reliable, unreliable, and stochastic vectors until no stochastic vector is left. The decomposition is made possible by applying existing efficient min-cost max-flow algorithm. Because the reliable subsets are disjoint, QoS can be obtained directly by summing the probabilities of these reliable subsets. Computational experiments are conducted on a benchmark network which has 11 nodes and 21 arcs. Five travel time limitations and five demand requirements are set to compute the QoS value. To make a comparison, we test the exhaustive complete enumeration method. Computational results reveal the proposed algorithm is much more efficient than the complete enumeration method. In this work, a transportation network is analyzed by an extended flow network model where each arc has a fixed capacity, each intermediate node has a time weight, and both arcs and nodes are independent binary random variables. The quality of service of the transportation network is an integration of customer demands, travel time, and the probability of connection. We present a decomposition algorithm to compute the QoS efficiently. Computational experiments conducted on a prototype network show that the proposed algorithm is superior to existing complete enumeration methods.

Keywords: quality of service, reliability, transportation network, travel time

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Authors: Eman W. Boghdady, A. R. Shehata, M. A. Azem

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Database (DB) security demands permitting authorized users and prohibiting non-authorized users and intruders actions on the DB and the objects inside it. Organizations that are running successfully demand the confidentiality of their DBs. They do not allow the unauthorized access to their data/information. They also demand the assurance that their data is protected against any malicious or accidental modification. DB protection and confidentiality are the security concerns. There are four types of controls to obtain the DB protection, those include: access control, information flow control, inference control, and cryptographic. The cryptographic control is considered as the backbone for DB security, it secures the DB by encryption during storage and communications. Current cryptographic techniques are classified into two types: traditional classical cryptography using standard algorithms (DES, AES, IDEA, etc.) and chaos cryptography using continuous (Chau, Rossler, Lorenz, etc.) or discreet (Logistics, Henon, etc.) algorithms. The important characteristics of chaos are its extreme sensitivity to initial conditions of the system. In this paper, DB-security systems based on chaotic algorithms are described. The Pseudo Random Numbers Generators (PRNGs) from the different chaotic algorithms are implemented using Matlab and their statistical properties are evaluated using NIST and other statistical test-suits. Then, these algorithms are used to secure conventional DB (plaintext), where the statistical properties of the ciphertext are also tested. To increase the complexity of the PRNGs and to let pass all the NIST statistical tests, we propose two hybrid PRNGs: one based on two chaotic Logistic maps and another based on two chaotic Henon maps, where each chaotic algorithm is running side-by-side and starting from random independent initial conditions and parameters (encryption keys). The resulted hybrid PRNGs passed the NIST statistical test suit.

Keywords: algorithms and data structure, DB security, encryption, chaotic algorithms, Matlab, NIST

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Authors: Mergim Gasia, Bojan Milovanovica, Sanjin Gumbarevic

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Better energy performance of the building envelope is one of the most important aspects of energy savings if the goals set by the European Union are to be achieved in the future. Dynamic heat transfer simulations are being used for the calculation of building energy consumption because they give more realistic energy demands compared to the stationary calculations that do not take the building’s thermal mass into account. Software used for these dynamic simulation use methods that are based on the analytical models since numerical models are insufficient for longer periods. The analytical models used in this research fall in the category of the conduction transfer functions (CTFs). Two methods for calculating the CTFs covered by this research are the Laplace method and the State-Space method. The literature review showed that the main disadvantage of these methods is that they are inadequate for heavyweight façade elements and shorter time periods used for the calculation. The algorithms for both the Laplace and State-Space methods are implemented in Mathematica, and the results are compared to the results from EnergyPlus and TRNSYS since these software use similar algorithms for the calculation of the building’s energy demand. This research aims to check the efficiency of the Laplace and the State-Space method for calculating the building’s energy demand for heavyweight building elements and shorter sampling time, and it also gives the means for the improvement of the algorithms used by these methods. As the reference point for the boundary heat flux density, the finite difference method (FDM) is used. Even though the dynamic heat transfer simulations are superior to the calculation based on the stationary boundary conditions, they have their limitations and will give unsatisfactory results if not properly used.

Keywords: Laplace method, state-space method, conduction transfer functions, finite difference method

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Authors: Mao Zhaofang, Xu Yida, Fang Kan, Fu Enyuan, Zhao Zhao

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Nowadays, last-mile distribution plays an increasingly important role in the whole industrial chain delivery link and accounts for a large proportion of the whole distribution process cost. Promoting the upgrading of logistics networks and improving the layout of final distribution points has become one of the trends in the development of modern logistics. Due to the discrete and heterogeneous needs and spatial distribution of customer demand, which will lead to a higher delivery failure rate and lower vehicle utilization, last-mile delivery has become a time-consuming and uncertain process. As a result, courier companies have introduced a range of innovative parcel storage facilities, including pick-up points and lockers. The introduction of pick-up points and lockers has not only improved the users’ experience but has also helped logistics and courier companies achieve large-scale economy. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 of the previous period, contactless delivery has become a new hotspot, which has also created new opportunities for the development of collection services. Therefore, a key issue for logistics companies is how to design/redesign their last-mile distribution network systems to create integrated logistics and distribution networks that consider pick-up points and lockers. This paper focuses on the introduction of self-pickup facilities in new logistics and distribution scenarios and the heterogeneous demands of customers. In this paper, we consider two types of demand, including ordinary products and refrigerated products, as well as corresponding transportation vehicles. We consider the constraints associated with self-pickup points and lockers and then address the location-routing problem with self-pickup facilities and heterogeneous demands (LRP-PFHD). To solve this challenging problem, we propose a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that aims to minimize the total cost, which includes the facility opening cost, the variable transport cost, and the fixed transport cost. Due to the NP-hardness of the problem, we propose a hybrid adaptive large-neighbourhood search algorithm to solve LRP-PFHD. We evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm by using instances generated based on benchmark instances. The results demonstrate that the hybrid adaptive large neighbourhood search algorithm is more efficient than MILP solvers such as Gurobi for LRP-PFHD, especially for large-scale instances. In addition, we made a comprehensive analysis of some important parameters (e.g., facility opening cost and transportation cost) to explore their impacts on the results and suggested helpful managerial insights for courier companies.

Keywords: city logistics, last-mile delivery, location-routing, adaptive large neighborhood search

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Authors: Ludmilla Wikkeling-Scott, Amira Karim

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Background: In a rapidly developing environment, concerns for pollution and depletion of natural resources are challenges facing global communities. A major source of waste on university campuses is the use of plastic bottles, while cost of production and processing is high. Consumer demand stimulates popularity of plastic bottle production, but researchers agree this is not a sustainable solution. This pilot study assesses plastic water bottle used and attitude towards alternatives among Emirati college students. Methods: This study was conducted in December 2016, using an anonymous self-administered survey of 17 questions. The survey included personal characteristics, plastic water bottle used, attitude towards alternative replacement and sustainability. For statistical analysis, STATA 14C was used to determine significance of association. Results: A total of 500 Emirati students (94.6% female) completed the survey. Of the students, 82.6% preferred bottled water over tap water, and 44.6% reported disposable bottled water use in their household, 42.6% purchased disposable bottled water more than twice a week, and 44.2% purchased bottled water at least once, while on campus. Students were willing to consider switching to alternative water bottle use if it was more convenient (22.54%), cost less (55.13%) or improved the taste (22.54%), while only 7.85% students would not consider any alternatives. There was a significant difference in attitude towards alternatives to water bottle use by area of study (p < 0.005). Conclusion: The UAE strives to be at the forefront of sustainable development and protecting biodiversity. However, a major challenge is the increasing amount of waste, exacerbated by the increasing consumer demand for convenience as seen in this billion-dollar industry. Plastic bottles, for all purposes, pose a serious threat to the environment and sustainable campus initiatives can help reduce the ecological footprint, improve awareness of safe alternatives and benefits to the environment.

Keywords: ecological foot print, emirati students, plastic bottle consumption, sustainable campus

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Authors: Koyar Rane

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Nano- to submicron size particles of narrow particle size distribution of semi-conducting TiO₂, ZnO, NiO, CuO, Fe₂O₃ have been synthesized by novel hydrazine method and tested for their gas sensing, photocatalytic and bactericidal activities and the behavior found to be enhanced when the oxides in the thin film forms, that obtained in a specially built spray pyrolysis reactor. Hydrazine method is novel in the sense, say, the UV absorption edge of the white pigment grade wide band gap (~3.2eV) TiO₂ and ZnO shifted to the visible region turning into yellowish particles, indicating modification occurring the band structure. The absorption in the visible region makes these oxides visible light sensitive photocatalysis in degrading pollutants, especially the organic dyes which otherwise increase the chemical oxygen demand of the drinking water, enabling the process feasible not under the harsh energetic UV radiation regime. The electromagnetic radiations on irradiation produce electron-hole pairs Semiconductor + hν → e⁻ + h⁺ The electron-hole pairs thus produced form Reactive Oxygen Species, ROS, on the surface of the semiconductors, O₂(adsorbed)+e⁻ → O₂• - superoxide ion OH-(surface)+h⁺ →•OH - Hydroxyl radical The ROS attack the organic material and micro-organisms. Our antibacterial studies indicate the metal oxides control the Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) of drinking water which had beyond the safe level normally found in the municipal supply. Metal oxides in the thin film form show overall enhanced properties and the films are reusable. The results of the photodegradation and antibactericidal studies are discussed. Gas sensing studies too have been done to find the versatility of the multifunctional metal oxides.

Keywords: hydrazine method, visible light sensitive, photo-degradation of dyes, water/airborne pollutant

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Authors: S. Farzad, M. Ali Mandegari, J. F. Görgens

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The South African Sugar Industry, which has a significant impact on the national economy, is currently facing problems due to increasing energy price and low global sugar price. The available bagasse is already combusted in low-efficiency boilers of the sugar mills while bagasse is generally recognized as a promising feedstock for second generation bioethanol production. Establishment of biorefinery annexed to the existing sugar mills, as an alternative for the revitalization of sugar industry producing biofuel and electricity has been proposed and considered in this study. Since the scale is an important issue in the feasibility of the technology, this study has taken into account a typical sugar mill with 300 ton/hr sugar cane capacity. The biorefinery simulation is carried out using Aspen PlusTM V8.6, in which the sugar mill’s power and steam demand has been considered. Hence, sugar mills in South Africa can be categorized as highly efficient, efficient, and not efficient with steam consumption of 33, 40, and 60 tons of steam per ton of cane and electric power demand of 10 MW; three different scenarios are studied. The sugar cane bagasse and tops/trash are supplied to the biorefinery process and the wastes/residues (mostly lignin) from the process are burnt in the CHP plant in order to produce steam and electricity for the biorefinery and sugar mill as well. Considering the efficient sugar mill, the CHP plant has generated 5 MW surplus electric powers, but the obtained energy is not enough for self-sufficiency of the plant (Biorefinery and Sugar mill) due to lack of 34 MW heat. One of the advantages of second generation biorefinery is its low impact on the environment and carbon footprint, thus the plant should be self-sufficient in energy without using fossil fuels. For this reason, a portion of fresh bagasse should be sent to the CHP plant to meet the energy requirements. An optimization procedure was carried out to find out the appropriate portion to be burnt in the combustor. As a result, 20% of the bagasse is re-routed to the combustor which leads to 5 tons of LP Steam and 8.6 MW electric power surpluses.

Keywords: biorefinery, sugarcane bagasse, sugar mill, energy analysis, bioethanol

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Authors: Nino Paresashvili, Nino Abesadze

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The modern world faces huge challenges. Globalization changed the socio-economic conditions of many countries. The current processes in the global environment have a different impact on countries with different cultures. However, an alleviation of poverty and improvement of living conditions is still the basic challenge for the majority of countries, because much of the population still lives under the official threshold of poverty. It is very important to stimulate youth employment. In order to prepare young people for the labour market, it is essential to provide them with the appropriate professional skills and knowledge. It is necessary to plan efficient activities for decreasing an unemployment rate and for developing the perfect mechanisms for regulation of a labour market. Such planning requires thorough study and analysis of existing reality, as well as development of corresponding mechanisms. Statistical analysis of unemployment is one of the main platforms for regulation of the labour market key mechanisms. The corresponding statistical methods should be used in the study process. Such methods are observation, gathering, grouping, and calculation of the generalized indicators. Unemployment is one of the most severe socioeconomic problems in Georgia. According to the past as well as the current statistics, unemployment rates always have been the most problematic issue to resolve for policy makers. Analytical works towards to the above-mentioned problem will be the basis for the next sustainable steps to solve the main problem. The results of the study showed that the choice of young people is not often due to their inclinations, their interests and the labour market demand. That is why the wrong professional orientation of young people in most cases leads to their unemployment. At the same time, it was shown that there are a number of professions in the labour market with a high demand because of the deficit the appropriate specialties. To achieve healthy competitiveness in youth employment, it is necessary to formulate regional employment programs with taking into account the regional infrastructure specifications.

Keywords: unemployment, analysis, methods, tendencies, regulation mechanisms

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Authors: Yan Bachtiar Muslih, Hangga Wijaya, Trio Fani, Putri Agustin

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Demand of Energy in Indonesia always increases 5-6% a year, but production of conventional energy always decreases 3-5% a year, it means that conventional energy in 20-40 years ahead will not able to complete all energy demand in Indonesia, one of the solve way is using unconventional energy that is gas hydrate, gas hydrate is gas that form by biogenic process, gas hydrate stable in condition with extremely depth and low temperature, gas hydrate can form in two condition that is in pole condition and in deep-sea condition, wherein this research will focus in gas hydrate that association with methane form methane hydrate in deep-sea condition and usually form in depth between 150-2000 m, this research will focus in process of methane hydrate formation that is biogenic process and the important role of deep-sea sediment so can produce accumulation of methane hydrate, methane hydrate usually will be accumulated in find sediment in deep-sea environment with condition high-pressure and low-temperature this condition too usually make methane hydrate change into white nodule, methodology of this research is geology field work and laboratory analysis, from geology field work will get sample data consist of 10-15 samples from Kerek Formation outcrops as random for imagine the condition of deep-sea environment that influence the methane hydrate formation and also from geology field work will get data of measuring stratigraphy in outcrops Kerek Formation too from this data will help to imagine the process in deep-sea sediment like energy flow, supply sediment, and etc, and laboratory analysis is activity to analyze all data that get from geology field work, the result of this research can used to exploration activity of methane hydrate in another prospect deep-sea environment in Indonesia.

Keywords: methane hydrate, deep-sea sediment, kerek formation, sub-basin of kendeng, central java, Indonesia

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Authors: Helen Durgante, Mariana F. Sparremberger, Flavia C. Bernardes, Debora D. DellAglio

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Health promotion programmes for retirees, based on Positive Psychology perspectives for the development of strengths and virtues, demand broadened empirical investigation in Brazil. In the case of evidence-based applied research, it is suggested feasibility studies are conducted prior to efficacy trials of the intervention, in order to identify and rectify possible faults in the design and implementation of the intervention. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of a multicomponent Positive Psychology programme for health promotion of retirees, based on Cognitive Behavioural Therapy and Positive Psychology perspectives. The programme structure included six weekly group sessions (two hours each) encompassing strengths such as Values and self-care, Optimism, Empathy, Gratitude, Forgiveness, and Meaning of life and work. The feasibility criteria evaluated were: Demand, Acceptability, Satisfaction with the programme and with the moderator, Comprehension/Generalization of contents, Evaluation of the moderator (Social Skills and Integrity/Fidelity), Adherence, and programme implementation. Overall, 11 retirees (F=11), age range 54-75, from the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre-RS-Brazil took part in the study. The instruments used were: Qualitative Admission Questionnaire; Moderator Field Diary; the Programme Evaluation Form to assess participants satisfaction with the programme and with the moderator (a six-item 4-point likert scale), and Comprehension/Generalization of contents (a three-item 4-point likert scale); Observers’ Evaluation Form to assess the moderator Social Skills (a five-item 4-point likert scale), Integrity/Fidelity (a 10 item 4-point likert scale), and Adherence (a nine-item 5-point likert scale). Qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis. Descriptive statistics as well as Intraclass Correlations coefficients were used for quantitative data and inter-rater reliability analysis. The results revealed high demand (N = 55 interested people) and acceptability (n = 10 concluded the programme with overall 88.3% frequency rate), satisfaction with the program and with the moderator (X = 3.76, SD = .34), and participants self-report of Comprehension/Generalization of contents provided in the programme (X = 2.82, SD = .51). In terms of the moderator Social Skills (X = 3.93; SD = .40; ICC = .752 [IC = .429-.919]), Integrity/Fidelity (X = 3.93; SD = .31; ICC = .936 [IC = .854-.981]), and participants Adherence (X = 4.90; SD = .29; ICC = .906 [IC = .783-.969]), evaluated by two independent observers present in each session of the programme, descriptive and Intraclass Correlation results were considered adequate. Structural changes were introduced in the intervention design and implementation methods, as well as the removal of items from questionnaires and evaluation forms. The obtained results were satisfactory, allowing changes to be made for further efficacy trials of the programme. Results are discussed taking cultural and contextual demands in Brazil into account.

Keywords: feasibility study, health promotion, positive psychology intervention, programme evaluation, retirees

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Authors: Hamed D. Alsharari

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This paper first analyses the current status regarding electrical engineering higher education in Saudi Arabian public universities. The paper focuses on the two EE sub-specialties most commonly present in Saudi Arabia, power and communications and discusses recruitment in this field, showing various market and employment demand for EE.

Keywords: communications, electrical engineering, higher education, Saudi Arabia, power

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Authors: Qin Zhu

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Under the background of accelerating the construction of Beautiful and Livable Park City in Chengdu, the Tianfu greenway system, as an important support system for the construction of parks in the whole region, its accessibility is one of the key indicators to measure the effectiveness of the greenway construction. In recent years, cycling has become an important transportation mode for residents to go to the greenways because of its low-carbon, healthy and convenient characteristics, and the study of greenway accessibility under cycling mode can provide reference suggestions for the optimization and improvement of greenways. Taking Jincheng Greenway in Chengdu City as an example, the Baidu Map Application Programming Interface (API) and questionnaire survey was used to improve the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method from the three dimensions of search threshold, supply side and demand side, to calculate the cycling accessibility of the greenway and to explore the spatial matching relationship with the population density, the number of entrances and the comprehensive attractiveness. The results show that: 1) the distribution of greenway accessibility in Jincheng shows a pattern of "high in the south and low in the north, high in the west and low in the east", 2) the spatial match between greenway accessibility and population density of the residential area is imbalanced, and there is a significant positive correlation between accessibility and the number of selectable greenway access points in residential areas, as well as the overall attractiveness of greenways, with a high degree of match. On this basis, it is proposed to give priority to the mismatch area to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand, optimize the greenway access points to improve the traffic connection, enhance the comprehensive quality of the greenway and strengthen the service capacity, to further improve the cycling accessibility of the Jincheng Greenway and improve the spatial allocation of greenway resources.

Keywords: accessibility, Baidu maps API, cycling, greenway, 2SFCA

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Authors: Badli Shah Mohd Yusoff, Khairur Rijal Jamaludin, Rozetta Dollah

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The emerging of reverse logistics and product recovery management is an important concept in reconciling economic and environmental objectives through recapturing values of the end of life product returns. End of life products contains valuable modules, parts, residues and materials that can create value if recovered efficiently. The main objective of this study is to explore and develop a model to recover as much of the economic value as reasonably possible to find the optimality of return acquisition and sorting to meet demand and maximize profits over time. In this study, the benefits that can be obtained for remanufacturer is to develop demand forecasting of used products in the future with uncertainty of returns and quality of products. Formulated based on a generic disassembly tree, the proposed model focused on three reverse logistics activity, namely refurbish, remanufacture and disposal incorporating all plausible means quality levels of the returns. While stricter sorting policy, constitute to the decrease amount of products to be refurbished or remanufactured and increases the level of discarded products. Numerical experiments carried out to investigate the characteristics and behaviour of the proposed model with mathematical programming model using Lingo 16.0 for medium-term planning of return acquisition, disassembly (refurbish or remanufacture) and disposal activities. Moreover, the model seeks an analysis a number of decisions relating to trade off management system to maximize revenue from the collection of use products reverse logistics services through refurbish and remanufacture recovery options. The results showed that full utilization in the sorting process leads the system to obtain less quantity from acquisition with minimal overall cost. Further, sensitivity analysis provides a range of possible scenarios to consider in optimizing the overall cost of refurbished and remanufactured products.

Keywords: core acquisition, end of life, reverse logistics, quality uncertainty

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Authors: Claudio L. M. Souza, Milton Erthal, Aldo Shimoya, Elias R. Goncalves, Igor C. Rangel, Allysson R. T. Tavares, Elias G. Figueira

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The process of choosing a region for the implementation of wind farms involves factors such as the wind regime, economic viability, land value, topography, and accessibility. This work presents results obtained by multi-criteria decision analysis, and it establishes a hierarchy, regarding the installation of wind farms, among geopolicy regions in the state of ‘Rio de Janeiro’, Brazil: ‘Regiao Norte-RN’, ‘Regiao dos Lagos-RL’ and ‘Regiao Serrana-RS’. The wind regime map indicates only these three possible regions with an average annual wind speed of above of 6.0 m/s. The method applied was the Analytical Hierarchy Process-AHP, designed to prioritize and rank the three regions based on four criteria as follows: 1) potential of the site and average wind speeds of above 6.0 ms-¹, 2) average land value, 3) distribution and interconnection to electric network with the highest number of electricity stations, and 4) accessibility with proximity and quality of highways and flat topography. The values of energy generation were calculated for wind turbines 50, 75, and 100 meters high, considering the production of site (GWh/Km²) and annual production (GWh). The weight of each criterion was attributed by six engineers and by analysis of Road Map, the Map of the Electric System, the Map of Wind Regime and the Annual Land Value Report. The results indicated that in 'RS', the demand was estimated at 2,000 GWh, so a wind farm can operate efficiently in 50 m turbines. This region is mainly mountainous with difficult access and lower land value. With respect to ‘RL’, the wind turbines have to be installed at a height of 75 m high to reach a demand of 6,300 GWh. This region is very flat, with easy access, and low land value. Finally, the ‘NR’ was evaluated as very flat and with expensive lands. In this case, wind turbines with 100 m can reach an annual production of 19,000 GWh. In this Region, the coast area was classified as of greater logistic, productivity and economic potential.

Keywords: AHP, renewable energy, wind energy

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Authors: Mohd Amran, Chan Yi Jing, Chong Chien Hwa

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Production of biogas from POME requires anaerobic digestion (AD), thus, anaerobic digester performance in biogas plants is crucial. As POME from different sources have varying characteristics due to different process flows in mills, there is no ideal treatment parameters for POME. Hence, different treatment plants alter different parameters in anaerobic digestion to achieve desired biogas production levels and to meet POME waste discharge limits. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of mesophilic anaerobic digestion in four different biogas plants in Malaysia. Aspects of POME pre-treatment efficiency, analysis of treated POME and AD’s bottom sludge characteristics, including several parameters like chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), total solid (TS) removal in the effluent, pH and temperature changes, total biogas produced, the composition of biogas including methane (CH₄), carbon dioxide (CO₂), hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) and oxygen (O₂) were investigated. The effect of organic loading rate (OLR) and hydraulic retention time (HRT) on anaerobic digester performance is also evaluated. In pre-treatment, it is observed that BGP B has the lowest average outlet temperature of 40.41°C. All BGP shows a high-temperature fluctuation (36 to 49 0C) and good pH readings (minimum 6.7), leaving the pre-treatment facility before entering the AD.COD removal of POME is considered good, with an average of 78% and maximum removal of 85%. BGP C has the lowest average COD and TS content in treated POME, 13,313 mg/L, and 12,048 mg/L, respectively. However, it is observed that the treated POME leaving all ADs, still contains high-quality organic substances (COD between 12,000 to 19,000 mg/L) that might be able to digest further to produce more biogas. The biogas produced in all four BGPs varies due to different COD loads. BGP B has the highest amount of biogas produced, 378,874.7 Nm³/month, while BGP D has the lowest biogas production of 272,378.5 Nm³/month. Furthermore, the composition of biogas produced in all plants is well within literature values (CH4 between 55 to 65% and CO₂ between 32 to 36%).

Keywords: palm oil mill effluent, in-ground lagoon anaerobic digester, anaerobic digestion, biogas

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Authors: Claudia Schier, Arvid Biallas, Bernd Friedrich

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The demand for Li-ion-batteries owing to their benefits, such as; fast charging time, high energy density, low weight, large temperature range, and a long service life performance is increasing compared to other battery systems. These characteristics are substantial not only for battery-operated portable devices but also in the growing field of electromobility where high-performance energy storage systems in the form of batteries are highly requested. Due to the sharp rising production, there is a tremendous interest to recycle spent Li-Ion batteries in a closed-loop manner owed to the high content of valuable metals such as cobalt, manganese, and lithium as well as regarding the increasing demand for those scarce applied metals. Currently, there are just a few industrial processes using hydrometallurgical methods to recover valuable metals from Li-ion-battery waste. In this study, the extraction of valuable metals from spent Li-ion-batteries is investigated by pretreated and subsequently leached battery wastes using different precipitation methods in a comparative manner. For the extraction of lithium, cobalt, and other valuable metals, pelletized battery wastes with an initial Li content of 2.24 wt. % and cobalt of 22 wt. % is used. Hydrochloric acid with 4 mol/L is applied with 1:50 solid to liquid (s/l) ratio to generate pregnant leach solution for subsequent precipitation steps. In order to obtain pure precipitates, two different pathways (pathway 1 and pathway 2) are investigated, which differ from each other with regard to the precipitation steps carried out. While lithium carbonate recovery is the final process step in pathway 1, pathway 2 requires a preliminary removal of lithium from the process. The aim is to evaluate both processes in terms of purity and yield of the products obtained. ICP-OES is used to determine the chemical content of leach liquor as well as of the solid residue.

Keywords: hydrochloric acid, hydrometallurgy, Li-ion-batteries, metal recovery

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Authors: Grazia Disciglio, Annalisa Tarantino, Emanuele Tarantino

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The production system of Foggia province (Apulia, Southern Italy) is characterized by the presence of numerous agro-food industries whose activities include the processing of vegetables products that release large quantities of wastewater. The reuse in agriculture of these wastewaters offers the opportunity to reduce the costs of their disposal and minimizing their environmental impact. In addition, in this area, which suffers from water shortage, the use of agro-industrial wastewater is essential in the very intensive irrigation cropping systems. The present investigation was carried out in years 2009 and 2010 to monitor the physico-chemical and microbiological characteristics of the industrial wastewater (IWW) from the secondary treatment plant of the 'Industrial Area of Foggia'. The treatment plant released on average about 567,000 m3y-1 of IWW, which distribution was not uniform over the year. The monthly values were about 250,000 m3 from November to June and about 90,000 m3 from July to October. The obtained results revealed that IWW was characterized by low values of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Sodium Absorption Rate (SAR). An occasional presence of heavy metal and high concentration of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, ammoniacal nitrogen and microbial organisms (Escherichia coli and Salmonella) were observed. Due to the presence of this pathogenic microorganisms and sometimes of heavy metals, which may raise sanitary and environmental problems in order to the possible irrigation reuse of this IWW, a tertiary treatment of wastewater based on filtration and disinfection in line are recommended. Researches on the reuse of treated IWW on crops (olive, artichoke, industrial tomatoes, fennel, lettuce etc.) did not show significant differences among the irrigated plots for most of the soil and yield characteristics.

Keywords: agroindustrial wastewater, irrigation, microbiological characteristic, physico-chemical characteristics

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Authors: B. Sudhakara Reddy

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In modern economy, energy is fundamental to virtually every product and service in use. It has been developed on the dependence of abundant and easy-to-transform polluting fossil fuels. On one hand, increase in population and income levels combined with increased per capita energy consumption requires energy production to keep pace with economic growth, and on the other, the impact of fossil fuel use on environmental degradation is enormous. The conflicting policy objectives of protecting the environment while increasing economic growth and employment has resulted in this paradox. Hence, it is important to decouple economic growth from environmental degeneration. Hence, the search for green energy involving affordable, low-carbon, and renewable energies has become global priority. This paper explores a transition to a sustainable energy system using the socio-economic-technical scenario method. This approach takes into account the multifaceted nature of transitions which not only require the development and use of new technologies, but also of changes in user behaviour, policy and regulation. The scenarios that are developed are: baseline business as usual (BAU) as well as green energy (GE). The baseline scenario assumes that the current trends (energy use, efficiency levels, etc.) will continue in future. India’s population is projected to grow by 23% during 2010 –2030, reaching 1.47 billion. The real GDP, as per the model, is projected to grow by 6.5% per year on average between 2010 and 2030 reaching US$5.1 trillion or $3,586 per capita (base year 2010). Due to increase in population and GDP, the primary energy demand will double in two decades reaching 1,397 MTOE in 2030 with the share of fossil fuels remaining around 80%. The increase in energy use corresponds to an increase in energy intensity (TOE/US $ of GDP) from 0.019 to 0.036. The carbon emissions are projected to increase by 2.5 times from 2010 reaching 3,440 million tonnes with per capita emissions of 2.2 tons/annum. However, the carbon intensity (tons per US$ of GDP) decreases from 0.96 to 0.67. As per GE scenario, energy use will reach 1079 MTOE by 2030, a saving of about 30% over BAU. The penetration rate of renewable energy resources will reduce the total primary energy demand by 23% under GE. The reduction in fossil fuel demand and focus on clean energy will reduce the energy intensity to 0.21 (TOE/US$ of GDP) and carbon intensity to 0.42 (ton/US$ of GDP) under the GE scenario. The study develops new ‘pathways out of poverty’ by creating more than 10 million jobs and thus raise the standard of living of low-income people. Our scenarios are, to a great extent, based on the existing technologies. The challenges to this path lie in socio-economic-political domains. However, to attain a green economy the appropriate policy package should be in place which will be critical in determining the kind of investments that will be needed and the incidence of costs and benefits. These results provide a basis for policy discussions on investments, policies and incentives to be put in place by national and local governments.

Keywords: energy, renewables, green technology, scenario

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