Search results for: conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model

Authors: Michal Biały, Konrad Pietrykowski, Rafal Sochaczewski

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The kinematics and dynamics analysis of crank-piston system of aircraft engine. The object of the study was the high power aircraft engine ASz 62-IR. This engine is produced by a Polish company WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A.". All analyzes were performed numerically using CAD and CAE environment. Three-dimensional model of the crank-piston system was developed based on real engine located in the Laboratory of Centre of Innovation and Advanced Technologies of Lublin University of Technology. During the development of the model, the technique of reverse engineering - 3D scanning was used. ASz 62-IR engine is characterized by a radial type of crank-piston system. In this system the cylinders are arranged radially around the circle. This crank-piston system consists of a main connecting rod and eight additional connecting rods. In addition, three-dimensional model consists of a piston pins, pistons and piston rings. As a result of the specific engine design, characteristics of the piston individual movement are slightly different from each other. But the model assumes that they are the same during the analysis. Three-dimensional model of the engine was implemented into the MSC Adams software. The environment of MSC Adams allows for multibody simulation of the dynamic phenomena. This determines the state parameters of the moving elements, among which the load or force distribution on each kinematic node can be distinguished. Materials and characteristic materials parameters were adopted on the basis of commonly used materials for engine parts. The mass values of individual elements were adopted on the basis of real engine parts. The piston gas forces were replaced by calculation of pressure variations recorded during engine tests on the engine test bench. The research the changes of forces acting in the individual kinematic pairs of crank-piston system. The model allows to determine the load on the crankshaft main bearings. This gives the possibility for the main supports forces analysis The model allows for testing and simulation of kinematics and dynamics of a radial aircraft engine. This is the first stage of the work, which aims to numerical simulation of vibration of multi-cylinder aircraft engine. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: aircraft engine, CAD, CAE, dynamics, kinematics, MSC Adams, numerical simulation

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Authors: Dongju Kim, Youngjoo Suh, Hyojin Kim, Gyeongyeong Kim

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Acoustic Emission Testing (AET) is widely used to test the structural integrity of an operational hydrogen storage container, and clustering algorithms are frequently used in pattern recognition methods to interpret AET results. However, the interpretation of AET results can vary from user to user as the tuning of the relevant parameters relies on the user's experience and knowledge of AET. Therefore, it is necessary to use a deep learning model to identify patterns in acoustic emission (AE) signal data that can be used to classify defects instead. In this paper, a deep learning-based model for classifying the types of defects in hydrogen storage tanks, using AE sensor waveforms, is proposed. As hydrogen storage tanks are commonly constructed using carbon fiber reinforced polymer composite (CFRP), a defect classification dataset is collected through a tensile test on a specimen of CFRP with an AE sensor attached. The performance of the classification model, using one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1-D CNN) and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) data augmentation, achieved 91.09% accuracy for each defect. It is expected that the deep learning classification model in this paper, used with AET, will help in evaluating the operational safety of hydrogen storage containers.

Keywords: acoustic emission testing, carbon fiber reinforced polymer composite, one-dimensional convolutional neural network, smote data augmentation

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Authors: Salwa M. Almomen, Mona A. Almaghrabi, Saja M. Alhabardi, Adel A. Alrwisan

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Background: Hepatotoxicity is a major reason for medication withdrawal from the markets. Unfortunately, serious adverse hepatic effects can occur after marketing with limited indicators during clinical development. Therefore, finding possible predictors for hepatotoxicity might guide the monitoring program of various stakeholders. Methods: We examined the clinical review documents for drugs approved in the US from 2011 to 2016 to evaluate their hepatic safety profile. Predictors: we assessed whether these medications meet Hy’s Law with hepatotoxicity grade ≥ 3, labeled hepatic adverse effects at approval, or accelerated approval status. Outcome: post-marketing regulatory action related to hepatotoxicity, including product withdrawal or updates to warning, precaution, or adverse effects sections. Statistical analysis: drugs were included in the analysis from the time of approval until the end of 2019 or the first post-marketing regulatory action related to hepatotoxicity, whichever occurred first. The hazard ratio (HR) was estimated using Cox-regression analysis. Results: We included 192 medications in the study. We classified 48 drugs as having grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicities, 43 had accelerated approval status, and 74 had labeled information about hepatotoxicity prior to marketing. The adjusted HRs for post-marketing regulatory action for products with grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicity was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17-2.23), 0.92 (95%CI, 0.29-2.93) for a drug approved via accelerated approval program, and was 0.91 (95%CI, 0.33-2.56) for drugs with labeled hepatotoxicity information at approval time. Conclusion: This study does not provide conclusive evidence on the association between post-marketing regulatory action and grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicity, accelerated approval status, or availability of labeled information at approval due to sampling size and channeling bias.

Keywords: accelerated approvals, hepatic adverse effects, drug-induced liver injury, hepatotoxicity predictors, post-marketing withdrawal

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Authors: Emmanuel Okechukwu Nwafor, Folake Olubunmi Akintayo, Denis Alcides Rezende

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Decision tree models are versatile and interpretable machine learning algorithms widely used for both classification and regression tasks, which can be related to cities, whether physical or digital. The aim of this research is to assess how well decision tree algorithms can predict trip purposes in Makurdi, Nigeria, while also exploring their connection to the strategic digital city initiative. The research methodology involves formalizing household demographic and trips information datasets obtained from extensive survey process. Modelling and Prediction were achieved using Python Programming Language and the evaluation metrics like R-squared and mean absolute error were used to assess the decision tree algorithm's performance. The results indicate that the model performed well, with accuracies of 84% and 68%, and low MAE values of 0.188 and 0.314, on training and validation data, respectively. This suggests the model can be relied upon for future prediction. The conclusion reiterates that This model will assist decision-makers, including urban planners, transportation engineers, government officials, and commuters, in making informed decisions on transportation planning and management within the framework of a strategic digital city. Its application will enhance the efficiency, sustainability, and overall quality of transportation services in Makurdi, Nigeria.

Keywords: decision tree algorithm, trip purpose, intelligent transport, strategic digital city, travel pattern, sustainable transport

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Authors: Mehmet Salih Bayraktutan

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Geomechanical properties of Rock Salt Deposits in Tuzluca Salt Mine Area (Eastern Turkey) are studied for modeling the operation- excavation strategy. The purpose of this research focused on calculating the critical value of span height- which will meet the safety requirements. The Mine Site Tuzluca Hills consist of alternating parallel bedding of Salt ( NaCl ) and Gypsum ( CaS04 + 2 H20) rocks. Rock Salt beds are more resistant than narrow Gypsum interlayers. Rock Salt beds formed almost 97 percent of the total height of the Hill. Therefore, the geotechnical safety of Galleries depends on the mechanical criteria of Rock Salt Cores. General deposition of Tuzluca Basin was finally completed by Tuzluca Evaporites, as for the uppermost stratigraphic unit. They are currently running mining operations performed by classic mechanical excavation, room and pillar method. Rooms and Pillars are currently experiencing an initial stage of fracturing in places. Geotechnical safety of the whole mining area evaluated by Rock Mass Rating (RMR), Rock Quality Designation (RQD) spacing of joints, and the interaction of groundwater and fracture system. In general, bedded rock salt Show large lateral deformation capacity (while deformation modulus stays in relative small values, here E= 9.86 GPa). In such litho-stratigraphic environments, creep is a critical mechanism in failure. Rock Salt creep rate in steady-state is greater than interbedding layers. Under long-lasted compressive stresses, creep may cause shear displacements, partly using bedding planes. Eventually, steady-state creep in time returns to accelerated stages. Uniaxial compression creep tests on specimens were performed to have an idea of rock salt strength. To give an idea, on Rock Salt cores, average axial strength and strain are found as 18 - 24 MPa and 0.43-0.45 %, respectively. Uniaxial Compressive strength of 26- 32 MPa, from bedded rock salt cores. Elastic modulus is comparatively low, but lateral deformation of the rock salt is high under the uniaxial compression stress state. Poisson ratio = 0.44, break load = 156 kN, cohesion c= 12.8 kg/cm2, specific gravity SG=2.17 gr/cm3. Fracture System; spacing of fractures, joints, faults, offsets are evaluated under acting geodynamic mechanism. Two sand beds, each 4-6 m thick, exist near to upper level and at the top of the evaporating sequence. They act as aquifers and keep infiltrated water on top for a long duration, which may result in the failure of roofs or pillars. Two major active seismic ( N30W and N70E ) striking Fault Planes and parallel fracture strands have seismically triggered moderate risk of structural deformation of rock salt bedding sequence. Earthquakes and Floods are two prevailing sources of geohazards in this region—the seismotectonic activity of the Mine Site based on the crossing framework of Kagizman Faults and Igdir Faults. Dominant Hazard Risk sources include; a) Weak mechanical properties of rock salt, gypsum, anhydrite beds-creep. b) Physical discontinuities cutting across the thick parallel layers of Evaporite Mass, c) Intercalated beds of weak cemented or loose sand, clayey sandy sediments. On the other hand, absorbing the effects of salt-gyps parallel bedded deposits on seismic wave amplitudes has a reducing effect on the Rock Mass.

Keywords: bedded rock salt, creep, failure mechanism, geotechnical safety

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Authors: Thandeka Y. S. Jwara, Paul Musonge

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Traditionally, the complexity associated with implementing and controlling biological nutrient removal (BNR) in wastewater works (WWW) has been primarily in terms of balancing competing requirements for nitrogen and phosphorus removal, particularly with respect to the use of influent chemical oxygen demand (COD) as a carbon source for the microorganisms. Successful BNR optimization and modelling using WEST (Worldwide Engine for Simulation and Training) depend largely on the accurate fractionation of the influent COD. The different COD fractions have differing effects on the BNR process, and therefore, the influent characteristics need to be well understood. This study presents the fractionation results of primary wastewater effluent COD at one of South Africa’s wastewater works treating 65ML/day of mixed industrial and domestic effluent. The method used for COD fractionation was the oxygen uptake rate/respirometry method. The breakdown of the results of the analysis is as follows: 70.5% biodegradable COD (bCOD) and 29.5% of non-biodegradable COD (iCOD) in terms of the total COD. Further fractionation led to a readily biodegradable soluble fraction (SS) of 75%, a slowly degradable particulate fraction (XS) of 24%, a particulate non-biodegradable fraction (XI) of 50.8% and a non-biodegradable soluble fraction (SI) of 49.2%. The fractionation results demonstrate that the primary effluent has good COD characteristics, as shown by the high level of the bCOD fraction with Ss being higher than Xs. This means that the microorganisms have sufficient substrate for the BNR process and that these components can now serve as inputs to the WEST Model for the plant under study.

Keywords: chemical oxygen demand, COD fractionation, wastewater modelling, wastewater optimization

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Authors: Jutamas Wisansing, Thanakarn Vongvisitsin, Udom Hongchatikul

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Designated Areas for Sustainable Tourism Administration (DASTA) is a public organization, dedicating to sustainable tourism development in 6 designated areas in Thailand. This paper provides rich reflections from a decade of DASTA, formulating an advanced model to deepen our understanding of 2 key intertwining issues; 1) what are the new landscapes of actors for community based tourism and 2) who are the benefactors and beneficiaries of tourism development within the community? An action research approach was used, enabling the process and evidence-based cases to be better captured. The aim is to build theoretical foundation through 13 communities/cases, which have engaged in community based tourism pilot projects. Drawing from emic and qualitative research, specific and contextual phenomenon provides succinct patterns of ‘Community Benefitting through Tourism (CbtT)’ model. The re-definition of the 2 key issues helps shape the interlinking of actors; practicalities of inclusive tourism and inter-sectoral framework and its value chain will also be set forth. In tourism sector, community members could be active primarily on the supply side as employees, entrepreneurs and local heritage experts. CbtT when well defined stimulates the entire value chain of local economy while promoting social innovation through positive dialogue with wider actors. Collaboration with a new set of actors who are from the tourism-related businesses and non-tourism related businesses create better impacts on mutual benefits.

Keywords: community based tourism, community benefitting through tourism -CbtT DASTA model, sustainable tourism in thailand, value chain and inclusive business

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Authors: David Percy

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Landslides are a geologic phenomenon that affects a large number of inhabited places and are constantly being monitored and studied for the prediction of future occurrences. Reconstructability analysis (RA) is a methodology for extracting informative models from large volumes of data that work exclusively with discrete data. While RA has been used in medical applications and social science extensively, we are introducing it to the spatial sciences through applications like landslide prediction. Since RA works exclusively with discrete data, such as soil classification or bedrock type, working with continuous data, such as porosity, requires that these data are binned for inclusion in the model. RA constructs models of the data which pick out the most informative elements, independent variables (IVs), from each layer that predict the dependent variable (DV), landslide occurrence. Each layer included in the model retains its classification data as a primary encoding of the data. Unlike other machine learning algorithms that force the data into one-hot encoding type of schemes, RA works directly with the data as it is encoded, with the exception of continuous data, which must be binned. The usual physical and derived layers are included in the model, and testing our results against other published methodologies, such as neural networks, yields accuracy that is similar but with the advantage of a completely transparent model. The results of an RA session with a data set are a report on every combination of variables and their probability of landslide events occurring. In this way, every combination of informative state combinations can be examined.

Keywords: reconstructability analysis, machine learning, landslides, raster analysis

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Authors: Christian Ihwiwhu, Nnamdi Obioha, Udeme John, Edward Bobade, Oghenerunor Bekibele, Adedeji Awujoola, Ibi-Ada Itotoi

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Understanding the complexity in the distribution of hydrocarbon in a simple structure with flow baffles and connectivity issues is critical in targeting and developing the remaining pay in a mature asset. Subtle facies changes (heterogeneity) can have a drastic impact on reservoir fluids movement, and this can be crucial to identifying sweet spots in mature fields. This study aims to evaluate selected reservoirs in Ovhor Field, Niger Delta, Nigeria, with the objective of optimising production from the field by targeting undeveloped oil reserves, bypassed pay, and gaining an improved understanding of the selected reservoirs to increase the company’s reservoir limits. The task at the Ovhor field is complicated by poor stratigraphic seismic resolution over the field. 3-D geological (sedimentology and stratigraphy) interpretation, use of results from quantitative interpretation, and proper understanding of production data have been used in recognizing flow baffles and undeveloped compartments in the field. The full field 3-D model has been constructed in such a way as to capture heterogeneities and the various compartments in the field to aid the proper simulation of fluid flow in the field for future production prediction, proper history matching and design of good trajectories to adequately target undeveloped oil in the field. Reservoir property models (porosity, permeability, and net-to-gross) have been constructed by biasing log interpreted properties to a defined environment of deposition model whose interpretation captures the heterogeneities expected in the studied reservoirs. At least, two scenarios have been modelled for most of the studied reservoirs to capture the range of uncertainties we are dealing with. The total original oil in-place volume for the four reservoirs studied is 157 MMstb. The cumulative oil and gas production from the selected reservoirs are 67.64 MMstb and 9.76 Bscf respectively, with current production rate of about 7035 bopd and 4.38 MMscf/d (as at 31/08/2019). Dynamic simulation and production forecast on the 4 reservoirs gave an undeveloped reserve of about 3.82 MMstb from two (2) identified oil restoration activities. These activities include side-tracking and re-perforation of existing wells. This integrated approach led to the identification of bypassed oil in some areas of the selected reservoirs and an improved understanding of the studied reservoirs. New wells have/are being drilled now to test the results of our studies, and the results are very confirmatory and satisfying.

Keywords: facies, flow baffle, bypassed pay, heterogeneities, history matching, reservoir limit

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Authors: Renu Saini, Deepak Agrawal

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Background: Patients with head and spinal cord injury frequently have deranged coagulation profiles and require blood products transfusion perioperatively. Thromboelastography (TEG) is a ‘bedside’ global test of coagulation which may have role in deciding the need of transfusion in such patients. Aim: To assess the usefulness of TEG in department of neurosurgery in decreasing transfusion rates and coagulation-related mortality in traumatic head and spinal cord injury. Method and Methodology: A retrospective comparative study was carried out in the department of neurosurgery over a period of 1 year. There are two groups in this study. ‘Control’ group constitutes the patients in whom data was collected over 6 months (1/6/2009-31/12/2009) prior to installation of TEG machine. ‘Test’ group includes patients in whom data was collected over 6months (1/1/2013-30/6/2013) post TEG installation. Total no. of platelet, FFP, and cryoprecipitate transfusions were noted in both groups along with in hospital mortality and length of stay. Result: Both groups were matched in age and sex of patients, number of head and spinal cord injury cases, number of patients with thrombocytopenia and number of patients who underwent operation. Total 178 patients (135 head injury and 43 spinal cord injury patents) were admitted in neurosurgery department during time period June 2009 to December 2009 i.e. prior to TEG installation and after TEG installation a total of 243 patients(197 head injury and 46 spinal cord injury patents) were admitted. After TEG introduction platelet transfusion significantly reduced (p=0.000) compare to control group (67 units to 34 units). Mortality rate was found significantly reduced after installation (77 patients to 57 patients, P=0.000). Length of stay was reduced significantly (Prior installation 1-211days and after installation 1-115days, p=0.02). Conclusion: Bedside TEG can dramatically reduce platelet transfusion components requirement in department of neurosurgery. TEG also lead to a drastic decrease in mortality rate and length of stay in patients with traumatic head and spinal cord injuries. We recommend its use as a standard of care in the patients with traumatic head and spinal cord injuries.

Keywords: blood component transfusion, mortality, neurosurgery ICU, thromboelastography

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

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We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis

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Authors: Ghada M. AlSwayied, Anas N. AlHumaid

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Smoking has been linked to thousands of deaths worldwide. Around three million adults continue to use tobacco each day in Saudi Arabia; a sign that smoking is prevalent among Saudi population and obviously considered as a public health threat. Although the awareness against smoking is continuously running, it can be observed that smoking behavior increases noticeably as common practice especially among young adults across the world. Therefore, it was an essential step to guess what does motivate smokers to think about quit smoking. Can a graphic and emotional ad that is focusing on health consequences do really make a difference? A case study has been conducted on the Annual Anti-Smoking National Campaign, which was provided by Saudi Ministry of Health in the period of May 2017. To assess campaign’s effects on the number of calls, the number of visits and online access to health messages during and after the campaign period from May to August compared with the previous campaign in 2016. The educational video was selected as a primary tool to deliver the smoking health message. The Minister of Health who is acting as a role model for young adults was used to deliver a direct message to smokers with an avoidance of smoking cues usage. Due to serious consequences of smoking, the Minister of Health delivered the news of canceling the media campaign and directing the budget to smoking cessation clinics. It was shown that the positive responses and interactions on the campaign were obviously remarkable; achieving a high rate of recall and recognition. During the campaign, the number of calls to book for a visit reached 45880 phone calls, and the total online views ran to 1,253,879. Whereas, clinic visit raised up to 213 cumulative percent. Interestingly, a total number of 15,192 patients visited the clinics along three months compared with the last year campaign’s period, which was merely 4850 patients. Furthermore, around half of patients who visited the clinics were in the age from 26 to 40-year-old. There was a great progress in enhancing public awareness on: 'where to go' to assist smokers in making a quit attempt. With regard to the stages of change theory, it was predicted that by following direct-message technique; the proportion of patients in the contemplation and preparation stages would be increased. There was no process evaluation obtained to assess implementation of the campaigns’ activities.

Keywords: smoking, health promotion, role model, educational material, intervention, community health

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Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

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The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies

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Authors: Thiago Victor Cordeiro Marcos, Joao Felipe de Araujo Martos, Ronaldo de Lima Cardoso, David Romanelli Pinto, Paulo Gilberto de Paula Toro, Israel da Silveira Rego, Antonio Carlos de Oliveira

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Currently, the use of 3D rapid prototyping, also known as 3D printing, has been investigated by some universities around the world as an innovative technique, fast, flexible and cheap for a direct plastic models manufacturing that are lighter and with complex geometries to be tested for hypersonic shock tunnel. Initially, the purpose is integrated prototyped parts with metal models that actually are manufactured through of the conventional machining and hereafter replace them with completely prototyped models. The mechanical design models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel are based on conventional manufacturing processes, therefore are limited forms and standard geometries. The use of 3D rapid prototyping offers a range of options that enables geometries innovation and ways to be used for the design new models. The conception and project of a prototyped model for hypersonic shock tunnel should be rethought and adapted when comparing the conventional manufacturing processes, in order to fully exploit the creativity and flexibility that are allowed by the 3D prototyping process. The objective of this paper is to compare the conception and project of a 3D rapid prototyping model and a conventional machining model, while showing the advantages and disadvantages of each process and the benefits that 3D prototyping can bring to the manufacture of models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D prototyping, experimental research, hypersonic shock tunnel

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Authors: Merouani Djilali Redha, F. Abdelmalek, A. A. Addou

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Advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) utilizing Homogenous photocatalysis (Fenton and photo-Fenton reactions), and Heterogeneous photocatalyse (TiO2 and ZnO) were investigated for the degradation of commercial azo dye ‘Orange G’ wastewater. Fenton and photo-Fenton experimental conditions were: Hydrogen peroxide concentration (10-2 M), Ferrous ions concentration (5.10-4 M), pH (2.8 – 3), UV lamp power (6 watt). Adding more ferrous ions enhanced the oxidation rate for the H2O2/Fe2+ and UV/H2O2/Fe2+ processes. The optimum catalyst loading was found 2.0 g.L-1 in our case for both catalysts TiO2 and ZnO. A comparative study of the photocatalytic degradation showed that these two catalysts have a comparable reactivity; it follows a pseudo-first-order kinetics. The degradation trends followed the order: UV365/Fenton > UV365/TiO2 > Solar Fenton > Solar TiO2 > Fenton ~UV365/ZnO. Among AOPs, processes using Fenton type reagent are relatively cheap and easy to operate and maintain. Moreover, UV365/Fenton process has been shown as effective in the treatment of OG dye. Dye was degraded following second-order kinetics. The rate constants was 0,041 .10+6 L.M-1.min-1. The degradation was followed by spectrophotometric method, chemical oxygen demand (COD) measures and high performance liquid chromatography analyses (HPLC). Some aromatic and aliphatic degradation compounds were identified. Degradation of Orange G by UV Fenton mechanism was also proposed.

Keywords: AOPs, homogeneous catalysis, heterogeneous catalysis, acid orange 10, hydroxyl radical

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Authors: Zi-Yan Chao

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With the rapid development of urbanization and increasing demand for efficient transportation systems, the interaction between land use diversity and transportation resource allocation has become a critical issue in urban planning. Achieving a balance of land use types, such as residential, commercial, and industrial areas, is crucial role in ensuring social equity and sustainable urban development. Simultaneously, optimizing multimodal transportation networks, including bus, subway, and car routes, is essential for minimizing total travel time and costs, while ensuring fairness for all social groups, particularly in meeting the transportation needs of low-income populations. This study develops a bilevel programming model to address these challenges, with land use diversity as the foundation for measuring equity. The upper-level model maximizes land use diversity for balanced land distribution across regions. The lower-level model optimizes multimodal transportation networks to minimize travel time and costs while maintaining user equilibrium. The model also incorporates constraints to ensure fair resource allocation, such as balancing transportation accessibility and cost differences across various social groups. A solution approach is developed to solve the bilevel optimization problem, ensuring efficient exploration of the solution space for land use and transportation resource allocation. This study maximizes social equity by maximizing land use diversity and achieving user equilibrium with optimal transportation resource distribution. The proposed method provides a robust framework for addressing urban planning challenges, contributing to sustainable and equitable urban development.

Keywords: bilevel programming model, genetic algorithms, land use diversity, multimodal transportation optimization, social equity

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Authors: María del Carmen Recio-Ruiz, Ramiro Ruiz-Rosas, Juana María Rosas, José Rodríguez-Mirasol, Tomás Cordero

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At the present time, conventional fossil fuels show environmental and sustainability disadvantages with regard to renewables energies. Producing energy and chemicals from biomass is an interesting alternative for substitution of conventional fossil sources with a renewable feedstock while enabling zero net greenhouse gases emissions. Pyrolysis is a well-known process to produce fuels and chemicals from biomass. In this work, conventional and fast pyrolysis of different agro-industrial residues (almond shells, hemp hurds, olive stones, and Kraft lignin) was studied. Both processes were carried out in a fixed bed reactor under nitrogen flow and using different operating conditions to analyze the influence of temperature (400-800 ºC) and heating rate (10 and 20 ºC/minfor conventional pyrolysis and 50 ºC/s for fast pyrolysis)on the yields, products distribution, and composition of the different fractions. The results showed that for both conventional and fast pyrolysis, the solid fraction yield decreased with temperature, while the liquid and gas fractions increased. In the case of the fast pyrolysis, a higher content of liquid fraction than that obtained in conventional pyrolysis could be observed due to cracking reactions occur at a lesser extent. With respect to the composition of de non-condensable fraction, the main gases obtained were CO, CO₂ (mainly at low temperatures), CH₄, and H₂ (mainly at high temperatures).

Keywords: bio-oil, biomass, conventional pyrolysis, fast pyrolysis

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Authors: Mehdi Mirzaei Alavijeh, Farzad Jalilian

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Background: Marijuana is the most widely used illicit drug worldwide, especially among adolescents and young adults, which can cause numerous complications. The aim of this study was to determine the pattern, motivation use, and factors related to marijuana use among Iranian youths based on the integrative model of behavioral prediction Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 174 youths marijuana user in Kermanshah County and Isfahan County, during summer 2014 which was selected with the convenience sampling for participation in this study. A self-reporting questionnaire was applied for collecting data. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 21 using bivariate correlations and linear regression statistical tests. Results: The mean marijuana use of respondents was 4.60 times at during week [95% CI: 4.06, 5.15]. Linear regression statistical showed, the structures of integrative model of behavioral prediction accounted for 36% of the variation in the outcome measure of the marijuana use at during week (R2 = 36% & P < 0.001); and among them attitude, marijuana refuse, and subjective norms were a stronger predictors. Conclusion: Comprehensive health education and prevention programs need to emphasize on cognitive factors that predict youth’s health-related behaviors. Based on our findings it seems, designing educational and behavioral intervention for reducing positive belief about marijuana, marijuana self-efficacy refuse promotion and reduce subjective norms encourage marijuana use has an effective potential to protect youths marijuana use.

Keywords: marijuana, youth, integrative model of behavioral prediction, Iran

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Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: initial cost, life-cycle cost, maintenance cost, reliability

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Authors: Giorgia Zotti

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This research comprehensively investigates the multifaceted interplay determining school performance, individual backgrounds, and regional disparities within the landscape of Italian secondary education. Leveraging data gleaned from the INVALSI 2021-2022 database, the analysis meticulously scrutinizes two fundamental distributions of educational achievements: the standardized Invalsi test scores and official grades in Italian and Mathematics, focusing specifically on final-year secondary school students in Italy. Applying a comprehensive methodology, the study initially employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess school performances. This methodology involves constructing a production function encompassing inputs (hours spent at school) and outputs (Invalsi scores in Italian and Mathematics, along with official grades in Italian and Math). The DEA approach is applied in both of its versions: traditional and conditional. The latter incorporates environmental variables such as school type, size, demographics, technological resources, and socio-economic indicators. Additionally, the analysis delves into regional disparities by leveraging the Theil Index, providing insights into disparities within and between regions. Moreover, in the frame of the inequality of opportunity theory, the study quantifies the inequality of opportunity in students' educational achievements. The methodology applied is the Parametric Approach in the ex-ante version, considering diverse circumstances like parental education and occupation, gender, school region, birthplace, and language spoken at home. Consequently, a Shapley decomposition is applied to understand how much each circumstance affects the outcomes. The outcomes of this comprehensive investigation unveil pivotal determinants of school performance, notably highlighting the influence of school type (Liceo) and socioeconomic status. The research unveils regional disparities, elucidating instances where specific schools outperform others in official grades compared to Invalsi scores, shedding light on the intricate nature of regional educational inequalities. Furthermore, it emphasizes a heightened inequality of opportunity within the distribution of Invalsi test scores in contrast to official grades, underscoring pronounced disparities at the student level. This analysis provides insights for policymakers, educators, and stakeholders, fostering a nuanced understanding of the complexities within Italian secondary education.

Keywords: inequality, education, efficiency, DEA approach

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building, Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that this simplification would only lead to the error that is less than 7% for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which can cover most situations.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Juan Portoviejo Brito, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Christian Castro Samaniego

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In this article, we present the modeling, simulations, and energy conversion analysis of the solar-wind system for the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador. A numerical model was constructed based on the 19 equations, it was coded in MATLAB R2017a, and the results were compared with the experimental data of the site. The model is built with the purpose of using it as a computer development for the optimization of resources and designs of hybrid systems in the Parish of Quingeo and its surroundings. The model obtained a fairly similar pattern compared to the data and curves obtained in the field experimentally and detailed in manuscript. It is important to indicate that this analysis has been carried out so that in the near future one or two of these power generation systems can be exploited in a massive way according to the budget assigned by the Parish GAD of Quingeo or other national or international organizations with the purpose of preserving this unique colonial helmet in Ecuador.

Keywords: hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, Smart Grid, Quingeo Azuay Ecuador

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Authors: J. Bahrawi, M. Elhag

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Estimation of evapotranspiration is always a major component in water resources management. Traditional techniques of calculating daily evapotranspiration based on field measurements are valid only for local scales. Earth observation satellite sensors are thus used to overcome difficulties in obtaining daily evapotranspiration measurements on regional scale. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model was adopted to estimate daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation along with other land surface energy fluxes. The model requires agro-climatic data that improve the model outputs. Advance Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and Medium Spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imageries were used to estimate the daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation over the entire Nile Delta region in Egypt supported by meteorological data collected from six different weather stations located within the study area. Daily evapotranspiration maps derived from SEBS model show a strong agreement with actual ground-truth data taken from 92 points uniformly distributed all over the study area. Moreover, daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation are strongly correlated. The reliable estimation of daily evapotranspiration supports the decision makers to review the current land use practices in terms of water management, while enabling them to propose proper land use changes.

Keywords: daily evapotranspiration, relative evaporation, SEBS, AATSR, MERIS, Nile Delta

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Authors: Chang Yu Chuan

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Background and Aim: Pressure sore is not only the consequence of any gradual damage of the skin leading to tissue defects but also an important indicator of clinical care. If hospitalized patients develop pressure sores without proper care, it would result in delayed healing, wound infection, increase patient physical pain, prolonged hospital stay and even death, which would have a negative impact on the quality of care and also increase nursing manpower and medical costs. This project is aimed at decreasing the incidence of pressure sore in one ward of internal medicine. Our data showed 53 cases (0.61%) of pressure sore in 2015, which exceeded the average (0.5%) of Taiwan Clinical Performance Indicator (TCPI) for medical centers. The purpose of this project is to reduce the incidence rate of pressure sore in the ward. After data collection and analysis from January to December 2016, the reasons of developing pressure sore were found: 1. Lack of knowledge to prevent pressure among nursing staffs; 2. No relevant courses about preventing pressure ulcers and pressure wound care being held in this unit; 3. Low complete rate of pressure sore care education that family members should receive from nursing staffs; 4. Decompression equipment is not enough; 5. Lack of standard procedures for body-turning and positioning care. After team members brainstorming, several strategies were proposed, including holding in-service education, pressure sore care seed training, purchasing decompression mattress and memory pillows, designing more elements of health education tools, such as health education pamphlet, posters and multimedia films of body-turning and positioning demonstration, formulation and promotion of standard operating procedures. In this way, nursing staffs can understand the body-turning and positioning guidelines for pressure sore prevention and enhance the quality of care. After the implementation of this project, the pressure sore density significantly decreased from 0.61%(53 cases) to 0.45%(28 cases) in this ward. The project shows good results and good example for nurses working at the ward and helps to enhance quality of care.

Keywords: body-turning and positioning, incidence density, nursing, pressure sore

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Authors: Le Ngoc Hung, Abriak Nor Edine, Binetruy Christophe, Benzerzour Mahfoud, Shahrour Isam, Patrice Rivard

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Bottom ash from Municipal Solid Waste Incineration (MSWI) can be viewed as a typical granular material because these industrial by-products result from the incineration of various domestic wastes. MSWI bottom ashes are mainly used in road engineering in substitution of the traditional natural aggregates. As the characterization of their mechanical behavior is essential in order to use them, specific studies have been led over the past few years. In the first part of this paper, the mechanical behavior of MSWI bottom ash is studied with triaxial tests. After analysis of the experiment results, the simulation of triaxial tests is carried out by using the software package CESAR-LCPC. As the first approach in modeling of this new class material, the Mohr-Coulomb model was chosen to describe the evolution of material under the influence of external mechanical actions.

Keywords: bottom ash, granular material, triaxial test, mechanical behavior, simulation, Mohr-Coulomb model, CESAR-LCPC

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Authors: Getachew Tilahun, Oluwole Makinde, David Malonza

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We propose and analyze a non-linear mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of pneumonia disease in a population of varying size. The deterministic compartmental model is studied using stability theory of differential equations. The effective reproduction number is obtained and also the local and global asymptotically stability conditions for the disease free and as well as for the endemic equilibria are established. The model exhibit a backward bifurcation and the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number to the key parameters are determined. Using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, the optimal control problem is formulated with three control strategies; namely disease prevention through education, treatment and screening. The cost effectiveness analysis of the adopted control strategies revealed that the combination of prevention and treatment is the most cost effective intervention strategies to combat the pneumonia pandemic. Numerical simulation is performed and pertinent results are displayed graphically.

Keywords: cost effectiveness analysis, optimal control, pneumonia dynamics, stability analysis, numerical simulation

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Authors: Juan M. Rodriguez-Diaz

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The precision of parameter estimators in the Gaussian linear model is traditionally accounted by the variance-covariance matrix of the asymptotic distribution. However, this measure can underestimate the true variance, specially for small samples. Traditionally, optimal design theory pays attention to this variance through its relationship with the model's information matrix. For this reason it seems convenient, at least in some cases, adapt the optimality criteria in order to get the best designs for the actual variance structure, otherwise the loss in efficiency of the designs obtained with the traditional approach may be very important.

Keywords: correlated observations, information matrix, optimality criteria, variance-covariance matrix

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohamed

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The resilience and sustainability of construction ecology are essential to world’s socio-economic development. Environmental resilience is crucial in relating construction ecology to the topology of spatial-economic model. Sustainable spatial-economic models focus on green business practices to comply with Earth’s Systems, allowing for the natural exchange patterns of ecosystems. Systems ecology has consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy and materials flow within Earth’s Systems. When model structures influence the communication of internal and external features in system networks, they postulated the valence of the first-level spatial outcomes (i.e., project compatibility success). These outcomes rely on second-level outcomes (i.e., participant security satisfaction). These outcomes are based on measuring database efficiency from 2015 to 2025. The model topology incorporates state-of-the-art value-orientation impacts and addresses the complexity of sustainability issues. These include building a consistent database necessary to approach spatial structure, constructing the spatial-economic model, developing parameters associated with sustainability indicators, quantifying social, economic, and environmental impacts, and using value-orientation as a set of important sustainability policy measures. The model demonstrates environmental resilience by managing and developing schemes from perspective of multiple sources pollutants through input–output criteria. These criteria evaluate the external insertions effects to conduct Monte Carlo simulations and analysis for using matrices in a unique spatial structure. The balance, or “equilibrium patterns” such as collective biosphere features, has a composite index of the distributed feedback flows. These feedback flows have a dynamic structure with physical and chemical properties, gradually extending incremental patterns. While these structures argue from a system ecology perspective, static loads are not decisive from an artistic or architectural perspective. The popularity of system resilience in the system's structure related to ecology has led to some confusion and vagueness. However, this topic is relevant for forecasting future scenarios where industrial regions must manage the impact of relevant environmental deviations. The model attempts to unify analytic and analogical structures of urban environments using database software to integrate sustainability outcomes based on the systems topology of construction ecology.

Keywords: system ecology, construction ecology, industrial ecology, spatial-economic model, systems topology

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Authors: Morteza Gharibi, Abdolghader Pakniat, Somayeh Bahrampouri

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Introduction: Emergency department (E.R.) crowding is a serious widespread problem in hospitals that leads to irregularities, a slower rate of delivery of services to patients, and a long-term stay. In addition, the long-term stay in the E.D. reduces the possibility of providing services with appropriate quality to other patients who are undergoing medical emergencies, which leads to dissatisfaction among patients. This study aimed to determine the relationship between ED-crowding and the mortality rate of the patients referred to the E.D. In a retrospective cohort study, all patients who expired in first 24 hours of admission were enrolled in the study. Crowding index at the moment of admission was calculated using Edwin Score. The data including history and physical examination, time of arrival in the E.D., diagnosis (using ICD 10 code), time of death, cause of death, demographic information was recoded based on triage forms on admission and patients’ medical files. Data analysis was performed by using descriptive statistics and chi square test, ANOVA tests using SPSS ver. 19. The time of arrival in E.D. to death in crowded E.D. conditions, with an average of five hours and 25 minutes, was significantly higher than the average admission Time of arrival in E.D. to death in active and crowded E.D. conditions. More physicians and nurses can be employed during crowded times to reduce staff fatigue and improve their performance during these hours.

Keywords: mortality, emergency, department, crowding

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Authors: Somdech Rungsrisawat

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The objective of this research was to investigate how to develop an appropriate management and administration model for the College of Film, Television, Multimedia and Performing Arts at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. A combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods was employed. The data collection was from the 8 experts who were the academic staff and entrepreneurs in films, television, multimedia and performing arts, and from 471 students studying in the communication arts field. The findings of this research paper presented the appropriate management and administration model for the College of Film, Television, Multimedia and Performing Arts, which depended on 3 factors: [i] the marketing management and the supporting facilities such as buildings, equipments and accessibility for students to the college; [ii] the competency of academic staff or lecturers and supporting staff; and [iii] career opportunities after graduation.

Keywords: educational institution management, educational management, learning resources, non-formal education, Thai qualifications framework for higher education

Procedia PDF Downloads 332