Search results for: probability

Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

Abstract:

We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

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Authors: Fazia Rahmoune, Sofiane Ziani

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Retrial queueing systems have been extensively used to stochastically model many problems arising in computer networks, telecommunication, telephone systems, among others. In this work, we consider a $M/G/1$ retrial queue with an unreliable server with random vacations and two types of primary customers, persistent and impatient. This model involves the unreliability of the server, which can be subject to physical breakdowns and takes into account the correctives maintenances for restoring the service when a failure occurs. On the other hand, we consider random vacations, which can model the preventives maintenances for improving system performances and preventing breakdowns. We give the necessary and sufficient stability condition of the system. Then, we obtain the joint probability distribution of the server state and the number of customers in orbit and derive the more useful performance measures analytically. Moreover, we also analyze the busy period of the system. Finally, we derive the stability condition and the generating function of the stationary distribution of the number of customers in the system when there is no vacations and impatient customers, and when there is no vacations, server failures and impatient customers.

Keywords: modeling, retrial queue, unreliable server, vacation, stochastic analysis

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Authors: Mai Ghazal, Ahmed Hammad

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Cost overruns in construction projects are considered as worldwide challenges since the cost performance is one of the main measures of success along with schedule performance. To overcome this problem, studies were conducted to investigate the cost overruns' factors, also projects' historical data were analyzed to extract new and useful knowledge from it. This research is studying and analyzing the effect of some factors causing cost overruns using the historical data from completed construction projects. Then, using these factors to estimate the probability of cost overrun occurrence and predict its percentage for future projects. First, an intensive literature review was done to study all the factors that cause cost overrun in construction projects, then another review was done for previous researcher papers about mining process in dealing with cost overruns. Second, a proposed data warehouse was structured which can be used by organizations to store their future data in a well-organized way so it can be easily analyzed later. Third twelve quantitative factors which their data are frequently available at construction projects were selected to be the analyzed factors and suggested predictors for the proposed model.

Keywords: construction management, construction projects, cost overrun, cost performance, data mining, data warehousing, knowledge discovery, knowledge management

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Authors: Yang Jian-Hong, Zhang Ren-Cheng, Huang Li

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Arc fault is one of the main inducements of electric fires. Arc Fault Detection Device (AFDD) can detect arc fault effectively. Arc fault detections and unhooking standards are the keys to AFDD practical application. First, an arc fault continuous production system was developed, which could count the arc half wave number. Then, Combining with the UL1699 standard, ignition probability curve of cotton and unhooking time of various currents intensity were obtained by experiments. The combustion degree of arc fault could be expressed effectively by arc area. Experiments proved that electric fires would be misjudged or missed only using arc half wave number as AFDD unhooking basis. At last, Practical tests were carried out on the self-developed AFDD system. The result showed that actual AFDD unhooking time was the sum of arc half wave cycling number, Arc wave identification time and unhooking mechanical operation time And the first two shared shorter time. Unhooking time standard depended on the shortest mechanical operation time.

Keywords: arc fault detection device, arc area, arc half wave, unhooking time, arc fault

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Authors: A. Zapata, Orlando Arroyo, R. Bonett

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Over the last two decades, the growing demand for housing in Latin American countries has led to the development of construction projects based on low and medium-rise buildings with thin reinforced concrete walls. This system, known as Thin Walls Reinforced Concrete Buildings (TWRCB), uses walls with thicknesses from 100 to 150 millimetres, with flexural reinforcement formed by welded wire mesh (WWM) with diameters between 5 and 7 millimetres, arranged in one or two layers. These walls often have irregular structural configurations, including combinations of rectangular shapes. Experimental and numerical research conducted in regions where this structural system is commonplace indicates inherent weaknesses, such as limited ductility due to the WWM reinforcement and thin element dimensions. Because of its complexity, numerical analyses have relied on two-dimensional models that don't explicitly account for the floor system, even though it plays a crucial role in distributing seismic forces among the resilient elements. Nonetheless, the numerical analyses assume a rigid diaphragm hypothesis. For this purpose, two study cases of buildings were selected, low-rise and mid-rise characteristics of TWRCB in Colombia. The buildings were analyzed in Opensees using the MVLEM-3D for walls and shell elements to simulate the slabs to involve the effect of coupling diaphragm in the nonlinear behaviour. Three cases are considered: a) models without a slab, b) models with rigid slabs, and c) models with flexible slabs. An incremental static (pushover) and nonlinear dynamic analyses were carried out using a set of 44 far-field ground motions of the FEMA P-695, scaled to 1.0 and 1.5 factors to consider the probability of collapse for the design base earthquake (DBE) and the maximum considered earthquake (MCE) for the model, according to the location sites and hazard zone of the archetypes in the Colombian NSR-10. Shear base capacity, maximum displacement at the roof, walls shear base individual demands and probabilities of collapse were calculated, to evaluate the effect of absence, rigid and flexible slabs in the nonlinear behaviour of the archetype buildings. The pushover results show that the building exhibits an overstrength between 1.1 to 2 when the slab is considered explicitly and depends on the structural walls plan configuration; additionally, the nonlinear behaviour considering no slab is more conservative than if the slab is represented. Include the flexible slab in the analysis remarks the importance to consider the slab contribution in the shear forces distribution between structural elements according to design resistance and rigidity. The dynamic analysis revealed that including the slab reduces the collapse probability of this system due to have lower displacements and deformations, enhancing the safety of residents and the seismic performance. The strategy of including the slab in modelling is important to capture the real effect on the distribution shear forces in walls due to coupling to estimate the correct nonlinear behaviour in this system and the adequate distribution to proportionate the correct resistance and rigidity of the elements in the design to reduce the possibility of damage to the elements during an earthquake.

Keywords: thin wall reinforced concrete buildings, coupling slab, rigid diaphragm, flexible diaphragm

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Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

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In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: Hao Chen, Bo Guo, Ping Jiang

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Residual life (RL) estimation based on multi-phase nonlinear Wiener process was studied in this paper, which is significant for complicated products with small samples. Firstly, nonlinear Wiener model with random parameter was introduced and multi-phase nonlinear Wiener model was proposed to model degradation process of products that were nonlinear and separated into different phases. Then the multi-phase RL probability density function based on the presented model was derived approximately in a closed form and parameters estimation was achieved with the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Finally, the method was applied to estimate the RL of high voltage plus capacitor. Compared with the other three different models by log-likelihood function (Log-LF) and Akaike information criterion (AIC), the results show that the proposed degradation model can capture degradation process of high voltage plus capacitors in a better way and provide a more reliable result.

Keywords: multi-phase nonlinear wiener process, residual life estimation, maximum likelihood estimation, high voltage plus capacitor

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Authors: M. Tahir Demirsel, Mustafa Atsan

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Many elements of the environment in which businesses operate today leave them faced with unexpected threats and opportunities. One of the major threats is business crisis. The crisis is a state of affairs in a business wherein the executives must take urgent and unprecedented action to try to save the business from failure. In order to survive in the business environment, organizations should be prepared for the potential crises. Technological developments, uncertainty in the market and the intense competition increase the probability of encountering a crisis for organizations. Therefore, by acting proactively to predict crisis, to detect signals of crisis and be prepared for a crisis by taking necessary precautions accordingly, is of great importance for businesses. In this context, the objective of this study is to reveal that how much organizations are proactive and can predict the future crises and investigate whether they are prepared for possible crises or not. The research was conducted on 222 business executives in one of the major industrial zones of Turkey, Konya Organized Industrial Zone (KOS). The findings are analyzed through descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis. According to the results, it has been observed that organizations cannot predict the crisis signals and are not prepared for potential crises.

Keywords: crisis preparedness, crisis signals, industrial organizations, proactivity

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Authors: Moustafa Osman

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Modeling of air pollutants from the accidental release is performed for quantifying the impact of industrial facilities into the ambient air. The mathematical methods are requiring for the prediction of the accidental scenario in probability of failure-safe mode and analysis consequences to quantify the environmental damage upon human health. The initial statement of mitigation plan is supporting implementation during production and maintenance periods. In a number of mathematical methods, the flow rate at which gaseous and liquid pollutants might be accidentally released is determined from various types in term of point, line and area sources. These emissions are integrated meteorological conditions in simplified stability parameters to compare dispersion coefficients from non-continuous air pollution plumes. The differences are reflected in concentrations levels and greenhouse effect to transport the parcel load in both urban and rural areas. This research reveals that the elevation effect nearby buildings with other structure is higher 5 times more than open terrains. These results are agreed with Sutton suggestion for dispersion coefficients in different stability classes.

Keywords: air pollutants, dispersion modeling, GIS, health effect, urban planning

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Authors: Muhammad Waseem Akram

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The current study attempts to analyze the impact of business constraints on the growth potential and performance of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the electrical industry of Pakistan. Primary data have been utilized for the study collected from the electrical industry cluster in Sargodha, Pakistan. OLS regression is used to assess the impact of business constraints on the performance of SMEs by controlling the effect of Technology Level, Innovations, and Firm Size. To associate business constraints with the growth potential of SMEs, the study utilized Tetrachoric Correlation and Logistic Regression. Findings reveal that all the business constraints negatively affect the performance of SMEs in the electrical industry except Political Instability. Results of Tetrachoric Correlation show that all the business constraints are negatively correlated with the growth potential of SMEs. Logistic Regression results show that Energy Constraint, Inflation and Price Instability, and Bad Business Practices, all three business constraints cause to reduce the probability of income growth in sample SMEs.

Keywords: SMEs, business constraints, performance, growth potential

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Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

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Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis

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Authors: Hafsa Raheel

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Objectives: Secondary school girls, ages 15–19 years old were surveyed to find out the coping strategies they used when stressed. Adolescents, who are affected with stress and depression early in life, suffer from depression throughout their lives, especially if they are utilizing improper ways to cope with it. Methods: A cross-sectional school-based survey among 1028 adolescent girls was conducted among the secondary schools in Riyadh city, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Results: About 25% stated that they cry, 19% listen to music, 15% start eating a lot, 12% sit alone/isolate themselves, 11% pray/read the Quran, 10% get into a verbal argument or a fight. Only a few, 3% exercise, and 2% stated that they find someone to discuss and talk to. Conclusion: The majority of the adolescent girls in our survey rely on emotion-related coping mechanisms rather than problem-solving mechanisms. This can cause long-term implications in these adolescents as there is an increased probability to develop depression later on in life. Policy makers need to implement strategies for early identification of stress and depression. Talking to friends and family can serve as an effective way to cope with stress.

Keywords: adolescents, stress, Saudi Arabia, mental health

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Authors: Rama Debbarma

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The present study deals with the performance of Linear base isolation system to mitigate seismic response of structures characterized by random system parameters. This involves optimization of the tuning ratio and damping properties of the base isolation system considering uncertain system parameters. However, the efficiency of base isolator may reduce if it is not tuned to the vibrating mode it is designed to suppress due to unavoidable presence of system parameters uncertainty. With the aid of matrix perturbation theory and first order Taylor series expansion, the total probability concept is used to evaluate the unconditional response of the primary structures considering random system parameters. For this, the conditional second order information of the response quantities are obtained in random vibration framework using state space formulation. Subsequently, the maximum unconditional root mean square displacement of the primary structures is used as the objective function to obtain optimum damping parameters Numerical study is performed to elucidate the effect of parameters uncertainties on the optimization of parameters of linear base isolator and system performance.

Keywords: linear base isolator, earthquake, optimization, uncertain parameters

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Authors: Onuchukwu Chika Christian, Chukwude Augustine Ejike

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We carried out a statistical analyse of microglitches events on a sample of radio pulsars. The distribution of microglitch events in frequency (ν) and first frequency derivatives ν˙ indicates that the size of a microglitch and sign combinations of events in ν and ν˙ are purely randomized. Assuming that the probability of a given size of a microglitch event occurring scales inversely as the absolute size of the event in both ν and ν˙, we constructed a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the absolute sizes of microglitches. In most of the pulsars, the theoretical CDF matched the observed values. This is an indication that microglitches in pulsar may be interpreted as an avalanche process in which angular momentum is transferred erratically from the flywheel-like superfliud interior to the slowly decelerating solid crust. Analysis of the waiting time indicates that it is purely Poisson distributed with mean microglitch rate <γ> ∼ 0.98year^−1 for all the pulsars in our sample and <γ> / <∆T> ∼ 1. Correlation analysis, showed that the relative absolute size of microglitch event strongly with the rotation period of the pulsar with correlation coefficient r ∼ 0.7 and r ∼ 0.5 respectively for events in ν and ν˙. The mean glitch rate and number of microglitches (Ng) showed some dependence on spin down rate (r ∼ −0.6) and the characteristic age of the pulsar (τ) with (r ∼ −0.4/− 0.5).

Keywords: method-data analysis, star, neutron-pulsar, general

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Authors: Patria Yunita

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Kuznets’ environmental curve analysis suggests sacrificing economic development to reduce environmental problems. However, we hope to achieve sustainable economic development. In this case, Islamic social finance, especially that of waqf in Indonesia, can be used as a solution to bridge the problem of environmental damage to the sustainability of economic development. The Panel Logit Regression method was used to analyze the probability of increasing economic growth and the role of waqf in the environmental impact of CO₂ emissions. This study uses panel data from 33 Indonesian provinces. The data used were the National Waqf Index, Forest Area, Waqf Land Area, Growth Rate of Regional Gross Domestic Product (YoY), and CO₂ Emissions for 2018-2022. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Waqf Board, Climate World Data, the Ministry of the Environment, and the Bank of Indonesia. The results prove that CO₂ emissions have a negative effect on regional economic growth and that waqf governance in the waqf index has a positive effect on regional economic growth in 33 provinces.

Keywords: waqf, CO₂ emissions, panel logit analysis, sustainable economic development

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Authors: Maryum Nawaz

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Purpose: To determine the frequency of refractive errors in squinting eyes of children from 4 to 16 years presenting at tertiary care hospital. Study Design: A descriptive cross-sectional study was done. Place and Duration: The study was conducted in Pediatric Ophthalmology, Hayatabad Medical Complex, Peshawar. Materials and Methods: The sample size was 146 keeping 41.45%5 proportion of refractive errors in children with squinting eyes, 95% confidence interval and 8% margin of error under WHO sample size calculations. Non-probability consecutive sampling was done. Result: Mean age was 8.57±2.66 years. Male were 89 (61.0%) and female were 57 (39.0%). Refractive error was present in 56 (38.4%) and was not present in 90 (61.6%) of patients. There was no association of gender, age, parent refractive errors, or early usage of electric equipment with the refractive errors. Conclusion: There is a high prevalence of refractive errors in a patient with strabismus. There is no association of age, gender, parent refractive errors, or early usage of electric equipment in the occurrence of refractive errors. Further studies are recommended for confirmation of these.

Keywords: strabismus, refractive error, myopia, hypermetropia, astigmatism

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Authors: Marina Nechayeva, Malgorzata Marciniak, Vladimir Przhebelskiy, A. Dragutan, S. Lamichhane, S. Oikawa

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This presentation is a progress report on a faculty-student research collaboration at CUNY LaGuardia Community College (LaGCC) aimed at designing a small horizontal axis wind turbine optimized for the wind patterns on the roof of our campus. Our project combines statistical and engineering research. Our wind modeling protocol is based upon a recent wind study by a faculty-student research group at MIT, and some of our blade design methods are adopted from a senior engineering project at CUNY City College. Our use of genetic algorithms has been inspired by the work on small wind turbines’ design by David Wood. We combine these diverse approaches in our interdisciplinary project in a way that has not been done before and improve upon certain techniques used by our predecessors. We employ several estimation methods to determine the best fitting parametric probability distribution model for the local wind speed data obtained through correlating short-term on-site measurements with a long-term time series at the nearby airport. The model serves as a foundation for engineering research that focuses on adapting and implementing genetic algorithms (GAs) to engineering optimization of the wind turbine design using Blade Element Momentum Theory. GAs are used to create new airfoils with desirable aerodynamic specifications. Small scale models of best performing designs are 3D printed and tested in the wind tunnel to verify the accuracy of relevant calculations. Genetic algorithms are applied to selected airfoils to determine the blade design (radial cord and pitch distribution) that would optimize the coefficient of power profile of the turbine. Our approach improves upon the traditional blade design methods in that it lets us dispense with assumptions necessary to simplify the system of Blade Element Momentum Theory equations, thus resulting in more accurate aerodynamic performance calculations. Furthermore, it enables us to design blades optimized for a whole range of wind speeds rather than a single value. Lastly, we improve upon known GA-based methods in that our algorithms are constructed to work with XFoil generated airfoils data which enables us to optimize blades using our own high glide ratio airfoil designs, without having to rely upon available empirical data from existing airfoils, such as NACA series. Beyond its immediate goal, this ongoing project serves as a training and selection platform for CUNY Research Scholars Program (CRSP) through its annual Aerodynamics and Wind Energy Research Seminar (AWERS), an undergraduate summer research boot camp, designed to introduce prospective researchers to the relevant theoretical background and methodology, get them up to speed with the current state of our research, and test their abilities and commitment to the program. Furthermore, several aspects of the research (e.g., writing code for 3D printing of airfoils) are adapted in the form of classroom research activities to enhance Calculus sequence instruction at LaGCC.

Keywords: engineering design optimization, genetic algorithms, horizontal axis wind turbine, wind modeling

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Authors: Renny Wulandari

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This study aims to determine how the influence of Non Performing Financing, Financing Deposit Ratio, Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue and Net Income Margin on the disclosure of financial risk in Sharia banks. To achieve these objectives conducted associative research method with data source in the form of secondary data that is annual report data with period 2013-2016. The population in this study is the sharia banking industry in Indonesia and who issued the annual financial statements. A method of sampling use probability sampling. Analysis in this research is with SEM-PLS. The result is Net Income Margin has a significant effect on financial risk disclosure while Non Performing Financing (NPF) Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR), Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue (OEOR) have no effect on the disclosure of financial risk in sharia bank.

Keywords: Sharia banks, disclosure of risk financial, non performing financing, financing deposit ratio, operating expenses and operating revenue, net income margin

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Authors: Timothée Bligny, Clément Codron, Antoine Estruch, Nicolas Girodet, Clément Ginet

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Collateralized Debt Obligations are not as widely used nowadays as they were before 2007 Subprime crisis. Nonetheless there remains an enthralling challenge to optimize cash flows associated with synthetic CDOs. A Gaussian-based model is used here in which default correlation and unconditional probabilities of default are highlighted. Then numerous simulations are performed based on this model for different scenarios in order to evaluate the associated cash flows given a specific number of defaults at different periods of time. Cash flows are not solely calculated on a single bought or sold tranche but rather on a combination of bought and sold tranches. With some assumptions, the simplex algorithm gives a way to find the maximum cash flow according to correlation of defaults and maturities. The used Gaussian model is not realistic in crisis situations. Besides present system does not handle buying or selling a portion of a tranche but only the whole tranche. However the work provides the investor with relevant elements on how to know what and when to buy and sell.

Keywords: synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), credit default swap (CDS), cash flow optimization, probability of default, default correlation, strategies, simulation, simplex

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Authors: Nirav J. Patel, Kalpesh K. Dudani

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Partial discharge (PD) is the dissipation of energy caused by localized breakdown of insulation. Power transformers are one of the most important components in the electrical energy network. Insulation degradation of transformer is frequently linked to PD. This is why PD detection is used in power system to monitor the health of high voltage transformer. If such problem are not detected and repaired, the strength and frequency of PD may increase and eventually lead to the catastrophic failure of the transformer. This can further cause external equipment damage, fires and loss of revenue due to an unscheduled outage. Hence, reliable online PD detection is a critical need for power companies to improve personnel safety and decrease the probability of loss of service. The PD phenomenon is manifested in a variety of physically observable signals including Ultra High Frequency (UHF) radiation and Acoustic Disturbances, Electrical pulses. Acoustic method is based on sensing the radiated acoustic emission from discharge sites in the insulation. Propagated wave from the PD fault site are captured sensor are consequently pre-amplified, filtered, recorded and analyze.

Keywords: acoustic, partial discharge, perfectly matched layer, sensor

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

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During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment

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Authors: Aghbalou Nihad, Charki Abderafi, Saida Rahali, Reklaoui Kamal

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Maximize the benefit from the wind energy potential is the most interest of the wind power stakeholders. As a result, the wind tower size is radically increasing. Nevertheless, choosing an appropriate wind turbine for a selected site require an accurate estimate of vertical wind profile. It is also imperative from cost and maintenance strategy point of view. Then, installing tall towers or even more expensive devices such as LIDAR or SODAR raises the costs of a wind power project. Various models were developed coming within this framework. However, they suffer from complexity, generalization and lacks accuracy. In this work, we aim to investigate the ability of neural network trained using the Bayesian Regularization technique to estimate wind speed profile up to height of 100 m based on knowledge of wind speed lower heights. Results show that the proposed approach can achieve satisfactory predictions and proof the suitability of the proposed method for generating wind speed profile and probability distributions based on knowledge of wind speed at lower heights.

Keywords: bayesian regularization, neural network, wind shear, accuracy

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Authors: Tabinda Sadiq, Tehmina Ashfaq Qazi, Hoor Shumail

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Recently, the advent of emerging technology has created an emerging generation of restaurant marketing. It explores the aspects that influence customers’ decision-making process in selecting a restaurant after reading food bloggers' reviews online. The motivation behind this research is to investigate the correlation between the credibility of the source and their attitude toward restaurant visits. The researcher collected the data by distributing a survey questionnaire through google forms by employing the Source credibility theory. Non- probability purposive sampling technique was used to collect data. The questionnaire used a predeveloped and validated scale by Ohanian to measure the relationship. Also, the researcher collected data from 250 respondents in order to investigate the influence of food bloggers on Gen Z's decision-making process. SPSS statistical version 26 was used for statistical testing and analyzing the data. The findings of the survey revealed that there is a moderate positive correlation between the variables. So, it can be analyzed that food bloggers do have an impact on Generation Z's decision making process.

Keywords: credibility, decision making, food bloggers, generation z, e-wom

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Authors: Ruijuan Bi

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Discrimination in insurance pricing is a topic of increasing concern, particularly in the context of the rapid development of big data and artificial intelligence. There is a need to explore the various forms of discrimination, such as direct and indirect discrimination, proxy discrimination, algorithmic discrimination, and unfair discrimination, and understand their implications in insurance pricing models. This paper aims to analyze and interpret the definitions of discrimination in insurance pricing and explore measures to reduce discrimination. It utilizes a textual analysis methodology, which involves gathering qualitative data from relevant literature on definitions of discrimination. The research methodology focuses on exploring the various forms of discrimination and their implications in insurance pricing models. Through textual analysis, this paper identifies the specific characteristics and implications of each form of discrimination in the general insurance industry. This research contributes to the theoretical understanding of discrimination in insurance pricing. By analyzing and interpreting relevant literature, this paper provides insights into the definitions of discrimination and the laws and regulations surrounding it. This theoretical foundation can inform future empirical research on discrimination in insurance pricing using relevant theories of probability theory.

Keywords: algorithmic discrimination, direct and indirect discrimination, proxy discrimination, unfair discrimination, insurance pricing

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Authors: Mahesh Balan U, Rohith Srinivaas Mohanakrishnan, Venkat Subramanian

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Positive and unlabeled learning (PU) has gained more attention in both academic and industry research literature recently because of its relevance to existing business problems today. Yet, there still seems to be some existing challenges in terms of validating the performance of PU learning, as the actual truth of unlabeled data points is still unknown in contrast to a binary classification where we know the truth. In this study, we propose a novel PU learning technique based on the Pseudo-F measure, where we address this research gap. In this approach, we train the PU model to discriminate the probability distribution of the positive and unlabeled in the validation and spy data. The predicted probabilities of the PU model have a two-fold validation – (a) the predicted probabilities of reliable positives and predicted positives should be from the same distribution; (b) the predicted probabilities of predicted positives and predicted unlabeled should be from a different distribution. We experimented with this approach on a credit marketing case study in one of the world’s biggest fintech platforms and found evidence for benchmarking performance and backtested using historical data. This study contributes to the existing literature on semi-supervised learning.

Keywords: PU learning, semi-supervised learning, pseudo f measure, classification

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Authors: B. Guezzen, M.A. Didi, B. Medjahed

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A factorial design of experiments and a response surface methodology were implemented to investigate the liquid-liquid extraction process of zinc (II) from acetate medium using the 1-Butyl-imidazolium di(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate [BIm⁺][D2EHP^-]. The optimization process of extraction parameters such as the initial pH effect (2.5, 4.5, and 6.6), ionic liquid concentration (1, 5.5, and 10 mM) and salt effect (0.01, 5, and 10 mM) was carried out using a three-level full factorial design (3³). The results of the factorial design demonstrate that all these factors are statistically significant, including the square effects of pH and ionic liquid concentration. The results showed that the order of significance: IL concentration > salt effect > initial pH. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showing high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.91) and low probability values (P < 0.05) signifies the validity of the predicted second-order quadratic model for Zn (II) extraction. The optimum conditions for the extraction of zinc (II) at the constant temperature (20 °C), initial Zn (II) concentration (1mM) and A/O ratio of unity were: initial pH (4.8), extractant concentration (9.9 mM), and NaCl concentration (8.2 mM). At the optimized condition, the metal ion could be quantitatively extracted.

Keywords: ionic liquid, response surface methodology, solvent extraction, zinc acetate

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Authors: Amylyn F. Labasano

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A significant number of empirical studies are carried out to investigate factors affecting college students’ performance in the academic examination. With a wide-array of literature-and studies-supported findings, this study is limited only on the students’ probability of passing periodical exams which is associated with students’ gender, absences in the class, use of reference book, and hours of study. Binary logistic regression was the technique used in the analysis. The research is based on the students’ record and data collected through survey. The result reveals that gender, use of reference book and hours of study are significant predictors of passing an examination while students’ absenteeism is an insignificant predictor. Females have 45% likelihood of passing the exam than their male classmates. Students who use and read their reference book are 38 times more likely pass the exam than those who do not use and read their reference book. Those who spent more than 3 hours in studying are four (4) times more likely pass the exam than those who spent only 3 hours or less in studying.

Keywords: absences, binary logistic regression, gender, hours of study prediction-causation method, periodical exams, random sampling, reference book

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Authors: Yibin Qiu, Yubo Ouyang, Shihan Li, Guorui Zhang, Qi Li, Weirong Chen

Abstract:

This paper aims at exploring the impacts of high dimensional dependencies of wind speed among wind farms on probabilistic optimal power flow. To obtain the reactive power optimization faster and more accurately, a mixture vine Copula structure model combining the K-means clustering, C vine copula and D vine copula is proposed in this paper, through which a more accurate correlation model can be obtained. Moreover, a Modified Backtracking Search Algorithm (MBSA), the three-point estimate method is applied to probabilistic optimal power flow. The validity of the mixture vine copula structure model and the MBSA are respectively tested in IEEE30 node system with measured data of 3 adjacent wind farms in a certain area, and the results indicate effectiveness of these methods.

Keywords: mixture vine copula structure model, three-point estimate method, the probability integral transform, modified backtracking search algorithm, reactive power optimization

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Authors: Abdul-Majeed Imoro

Abstract:

This paper investigates the interactive effect of domestic remittances and household enterprises on household well-being in Ghana. The study employs data drawn from the seventh wave of the Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS 7) comprising 14,009 households located in 1,000 enumeration areas for the 2016/2017 period. This study employs the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression technique in estimating the interactive effect of domestic remittances and household enterprises on household well-being. The Linear Probability Model (LPM) is used to estimate the impact of domestic remittances on household enterprises. A Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) model is employed to solve endogeneity issues between the dependent variable and the explanatory variable. This study reveals the following findings: domestic remittances improve household well-being significantly. Also, there is a significant negative impact of domestic remittances on household enterprises. This implies that households that receive domestic remittances are less likely to engage in household enterprises. Finally, the 2SLS results show a significant and positive impact of the interaction between domestic remittances and household enterprises on household well-being. This study provides empirical evidence of why policymakers need to encourage households that receive domestic remittances to diversify their income sources and invest in other income-generating activities such as household enterprises.

Keywords: domestic remittances, household enterprises, household well-being, Ghana

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Authors: Asad Naeem, Mohamed Nour Eldin, Jinkoo Kim

Abstract:

In this study, the seismic performance and life cycle cost (LCC) are evaluated of the structure retrofitted with the damped cable system (DCS). The DCS is a seismic retrofit system composed of a high-strength steel cable and pressurized viscous dampers. The analysis model of the system is first derived using various link elements in SAP2000, and fragility curves of the structure retrofitted with the DCS and viscous dampers are obtained using incremental dynamic analyses. The analysis results show that the residual displacements of the structure equipped with the DCS are smaller than those of the structure with retrofitted with only conventional viscous dampers, due to the enhanced stiffness/strength and self-centering capability of the damped cable system. The fragility analysis shows that the structure retrofitted with the DCS has the least probability of reaching the specific limit states compared to the bare structure and the structure with viscous damper. It is also observed that the initial cost of the DCS method required for the seismic retrofit is smaller than that of the structure with viscous dampers and that the LCC of the structure equipped with the DCS is smaller than that of the structure with viscous dampers.

Keywords: damped cable system, fragility curve, life cycle cost, seismic retrofit, self-centering

Procedia PDF Downloads 553