Search results for: pest forecasting

Authors: Wolfram Jahn, Jose Manuel Munita

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While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of fire scenarios are commonly used in the design of buildings, less attention has been given to the use of CFD simulations as an operational tool for the fire services. The reason of this lack of attention lies mainly in the fact that CFD simulations typically take large periods of time to complete, and their results would thus not be available in time to be of use during an emergency. Firefighters often face uncertain conditions when entering a building to attack a fire. They would greatly benefit from a technology based on predictive fire simulations, able to assist their decision-making process. The principal constraint to faster CFD simulations is the fine grid necessary to solve accurately the physical processes that govern a fire. This paper explores the possibility of overcoming this constraint and using coarse grid CFD simulations for fire scenarios, and proposes a methodology to use the simulation results in a meaningful way that can be used by the fire fighters during an emergency. Data from real scale compartment fire tests were used to compare CFD fire models with different grid arrangements, and empirical correlations were obtained to interpolate data points into the grids. The results show that the strongly predominant effect of the heat release rate of the fire on the fluid dynamics allows for the use of coarse grids with relatively low overall impact of simulation results. Simulations with an acceptable level of accuracy could be run in real time, thus making them useful as a forecasting tool for emergency response purposes.

Keywords: CFD, fire simulations, emergency response, forecast

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Authors: Gayathri Sadanala, Shibam Pokhrel, Owen Murphy

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In the ever-evolving landscape of education, Virtual Reality (VR) environments offer a promising avenue for enhancing student engagement and learning experiences. However, understanding and predicting student behavior within these immersive settings remain challenging tasks. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the predictive modeling of student behavior in VR using machine learning techniques. We introduce a rich data set capturing student interactions, movements, and progress within a VR orientation program. The dataset is divided into training and testing sets, allowing us to develop and evaluate predictive models for various aspects of student behavior, including engagement levels, task completion, and performance. Our machine learning approach leverages a combination of feature engineering and model selection to reveal hidden patterns in the data. We employ regression and classification models to predict student outcomes, and the results showcase promising accuracy in forecasting behavior within VR environments. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical implications of our predictive models for personalized VR-based learning experiences and early intervention strategies. By uncovering the intricate relationship between student behavior and VR interactions, we provide valuable insights for educators, designers, and developers seeking to optimize virtual learning environments.

Keywords: interaction, machine learning, predictive modeling, virtual reality

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Authors: Xiang-Yao Zheng, Jen-Cheng Wang, Joe-Air Jiang

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Improving the line ampacity while using existing power grids is an important issue that electricity dispatchers are now facing. Using the information provided by the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) of transmission lines, an overhead power grid can operate safely. However, dispatchers usually lack real-time DTR information. Thus, this study proposes a long-short-term memory (LSTM)-based method, which is one of the neural network models. The LSTM-based method predicts the DTR of lines using the weather data provided by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. The possible thermal bottlenecks at different locations along the line and the margin of line ampacity can be real-time determined by the proposed LSTM-based prediction method. A case study that targets the 345 kV power grid of TaiPower in Taiwan is utilized to examine the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is useful to provide the information for the smart grid application in the future.

Keywords: electricity dispatch, line ampacity prediction, dynamic thermal rating, long-short-term memory neural network, smart grid

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Authors: Saranya Ganapathy, Megha N. Parajulee, Michael San Francisco, Hong Zhang

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Insect pests are a serious threat to agricultural productivity. Use of chemical pesticides, the predominant control method thus far, has resulted in environmental damage, pest resurgence, and negative effects on non-target species. Genetically modified (GM) crops offer a promising alternative, and Bacillus thuringiensis endotoxin genes have played a major role in this respect. However, to overcome insect tolerance issues and to broaden the target range, it is critical to identify alternative-insecticidal toxins working through novel mechanisms. Our research group has identified a kinase from Chilo iridescent virus (CIV; Family Iridoviridae) that has insecticidal activity and designated it as ISTK (Iridovirus Serine/Threonine Kinase). A 35 kDa truncated form of ISTK, designated iridoptin, was obtained during expression and purification of ISTK in the yeast system. This yeast-expressed CIV toxin induced 50% mortality in cotton aphids and 100% mortality in green peach aphids (GPA). Optimized viral genes (o-ISTK and o-IRI) were stably transformed into the model plant, Arabidopsis. PCR analysis of genomic DNA confirmed the presence of the gene insert (oISTK/oIRI) in selected transgenic lines. The further screening was performed to identify the PCR positive lines that showed expression of respective toxins at the polypeptide level using Western blot analysis. The stable lines expressing either of these two toxins induced moderate to very high mortality in GPAs and significantly affected GPA development and fecundity. The aphicidal potential of these transgenic Arabidopsis lines will be presented.

Keywords: Chilo iridescent virus, insecticidal toxin, iridoviruses, plant-incorporated protectants, serine/threonine kinase

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Kiyanoush Ghalavand

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Aquaculture production is inherently a risky business, and farmers face a variety of weather, pest, disease, inptut supply, and market related risks. There are many factors out farmers control and unpredictable. Insurance has an important role in aquaculture production and is a tool to support farmers against threats. Investigation of factors affecting aquaculture farmers' adoption of aquaculture insurance strategy was the objective of this study. The purpose of this study was determining the related factors to adoption of insurance by aquaculture farmers in Khuzestan province, Iran. The research design was a descriptive and correlation surveying method. Aquaculture farmers in Khuzestan province were the target population for this study. A random sample of aquaculture selected (N=1830, n =139). The main result of the study reveled that exist correlation between the level of education, knowledge about purpose of insurance, participation in extension course, visit with insurance organization, and contact with extension agents to the adoption of insurance by aquaculture farmers were significantly positive. By using Bartlett's test and KMO test, determine whether research variables are appropriate for factor analysis (Sig = 0.000, Bartlett test = 0.9724, KMO = 0.74). The number of factors was determined using a split plot, eigenvalue, and percent of variance. An examination of the items and their factors loadings was used to understand the nature of the nine factors. To reduce subjectivity, items with factor loading equal to or greater than 0.5 were considered most important when factors were labeled. The nine factors were labeled (1) Extension and education activities, (2) Economical characteristics, (3) Governmental support, (4) communicational channel, (5) local leaders, (6) Facilitate in given damage (7) Motivation establishing, (8) Given damage in appropriate methods and (9) Appropriate activities by insurance organization. The results obtained from the factors analysis reveal that the nine factors explain percentage75 of the variation of the adoption of insurance of the adoption of insurance by aquaculture farmers in Khuzestan province.

Keywords: aquaculture farmers, insurance, factorial analysis, Khuzestan province, risks

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Authors: Mathias Twizeyimana, Urmila Adhikari, Julius P. Sserumaga, David Ingham

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The management of aflatoxins (naturally occurring toxins produced by certain fungi, most importantly Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus) relies mostly on the use of best cultural practices and, in some cases, the use of the biological control consisting of atoxigenic strains inhibiting the toxigenic strains through competition resulting in considerable toxin reduction. At AgBiome, we have built a core collection of over 100,000 fully sequenced microbes from diverse environments and employ both the microbes and their sequences in the discovery of new biological products for disease and pest control. The most common approach to finding beneficial microbes consists of isolating microorganisms from samples collected from diverse environments, selecting antagonistic strains through empirical screening, studying modes of action, and stabilization through the formulation of selected microbial isolates. A total of 608 diverse bacterial strains were screened using a high-throughput assay (48-well assay) to identify strains that inhibit toxigenic A. flavus growth on maize kernels. Active strains in 48-well assay had their pathogen inhibiting activity confirmed using the Flask Assay and were concurrently tested for their ability to reduce the aflatoxin content in maize grains. Strains with best growth inhibition and reduction of aflatoxin were tested in the greenhouse and field trials. From the field trials, three bacterial strains, AFS000009 (Pseudomonas chlororaphis), AFS032321 (Bacillus subtilis), AFS024683 (Bacillus velezensis), had aflatoxin concentrations (ppb) values that were significantly lower than those of inoculated control. The identification of biological products with high efficacy in inhibiting pathogen growth and eventually reducing the aflatoxin content will provide a valuable alternative to control strategies used in aflatoxin contamination management.

Keywords: aflatoxin, microorganism bacteria, biocontrol, beneficial microbes

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Authors: Evgeniia V. Mekhonoshina, Vladimir Ya. Modorskii, Vasilii Yu. Petrov

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At present, vibrations of rotors of gas transmittal unit evade sustainable forecasting. This paper describes elastic oscillation modes in resilient supports and rotor impellers modeled during computational experiments with regard to interference in the system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor. Verification of aeroelastic approach was done on model problem of interaction between supersonic jet in shock tube with deformed plate. ANSYS 15.0 engineering analysis system was used as a modeling tool of numerical simulation in this paper. Finite volume method for gas dynamics and finite elements method for assessment of the strain stress state (SSS) components were used as research methods. Rotation speed and material’s elasticity modulus varied during calculations, and SSS components and gas-dynamic parameters in the dynamic system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor were evaluated. The analysis of time dependence demonstrated that gas-dynamic parameters near the rotor blades oscillate at 200 Hz, and SSS parameters at the upper blade edge oscillate four times higher, i.e. with blade frequency. It has been detected that vibration amplitudes correction in the test points at magnetic bearings by aeroelasticity may correspond up to 50%, and about -π/4 for phases.

Keywords: Centrifugal compressor, aeroelasticity, interdisciplinary calculation, oscillation phase displacement, vibration, nonstationarity

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Authors: Mojibul Sajjad, Mohammad G. Rasul, Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir

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The rate of natural gas dissociation from the Coal Matrix depends on depressurization of reservoir through removing of the cleat water from the coal seam. These waters are similar to brine and aged of long years. For improving the connectivity through fracking /fracturing, high pressure liquids are pumped off inside the coal body. A significant quantity of accumulated water, a combined mixture of cleat water and fracking fluids (back flow water) is pumped out through gas well. In Queensland Coal Seam Gas industry is in booming state and estimated of 30,000 wells would be active for CSG production forecasting life span of 30 years. Integrated water management along with water softening programs is practiced for subsequent treatment and later on discharge to nearby surface water catchment. Water treatment is an important part of the CSG industry. A case study on a CSG site and review on the test results are discussed for assessing the Standards & Practices for management of CSG by-product water and their subsequent disposal activities. This study was directed toward (i) water management and softening process in Spring Gully Mine field, (ii) Comparative analysis on experimental study and standards and (iii) Disposal of the treated water. This study also aimed for alternative usages and their impact on vegetation, living species as well as long term effects.

Keywords: coal seam gas (CSG), cleat water, hydro-fracking, product water

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Authors: Emmanuel Osaze Oshoiribhor, Adetokunbo MacGregor John-Otumu

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There has been a need in recent years to predict student academic achievement prior to graduation. This is to assist them in improving their grades, especially for those who have struggled in the past. The purpose of this research is to use supervised learning techniques to create a model that predicts student academic progress. Many scholars have developed models that predict student academic achievement based on characteristics including smoking, demography, culture, social media, parent educational background, parent finances, and family background, to mention a few. This element, as well as the model used, could have misclassified the kids in terms of their academic achievement. As a prerequisite to predicting if the student will perform well in the future on related courses, this model is built using a logistic regression classifier with basic features such as the previous semester's course score, attendance to class, class participation, and the total number of course materials or resources the student is able to cover per semester. With a 96.7 percent accuracy, the model outperformed other classifiers such as Naive bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random forest, and Adaboost. This model is offered as a desktop application with user-friendly interfaces for forecasting student academic progress for both teachers and students. As a result, both students and professors are encouraged to use this technique to predict outcomes better.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ML, logistic regression, performance, prediction

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Authors: Girish Chavadappanavar

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The impact of climate on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends. In the present study, the development of a statistical yield forecast model has been carried out for sugarcane production over Belagavi district, Karnataka using weather variables of crop growing season and past observed yield data for the period of 1971 to 2010. The study shows that this type of statistical yield forecast model could efficiently forecast yield 5 weeks and even 10 weeks in advance of the harvest for sugarcane within an acceptable limit of error. The performance of the model in predicting yields at the district level for sugarcane crops is found quite satisfactory for both validation (2007 and 2008) as well as forecasting (2009 and 2010).In addition to the above study, the climate variability of the area has also been studied, and hence, the data series was tested for Mann Kendall Rank Statistical Test. The maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be significant with opposite trends (decreasing trend in maximum and increasing in minimum temperature), while the other three are found in significant with different trends (rainfall and evening time relative humidity with increasing trend and morning time relative humidity with decreasing trend).

Keywords: climate impact, regression analysis, yield and forecast model, sugar models

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Authors: Stephanie Fabris Russo, Daiane Costa Guimarães, Jonas Pedro Fabris, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo, José Augusto Andrade Filho

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Among renewable energy sources, solar energy is the one that has stood out. Solar radiation can be used as a thermal energy source and can also be converted into electricity by means of effects on certain materials, such as thermoelectric and photovoltaic panels. These panels are often used to generate energy in homes, buildings, arenas, etc., and have low pollution emissions. Thus, a technological prospecting was performed to find patents related to the use of photovoltaic plates in urban residences. The patent search was based on ESPACENET, associating the keywords photovoltaic and home, where we found 136 patent documents in the period of 1994-2015 in the fields title and abstract. Note that the years 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 had the highest number of applicants, with respectively, 11, 13, 23, 29, 15 and 21. Regarding the country that deposited about this technology, it is clear that China leads with 67 patent deposits, followed by Japan with 38 patents applications. It is important to note that most depositors, 50% are companies, 44% are individual inventors and only 6% are universities. On the International Patent classification (IPC) codes, we noted that the most present classification in results was H02J3/38, which represents provisions in parallel to feed a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers. Among all categories, there is the H session, which means Electricity, with 70% of the patents.

Keywords: photovoltaic, urban residences, technology forecasting, prospecting

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Authors: N. R. Prasannakumar, M. N. Maruthi

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The whitefly, Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera; Aleyrodidae) is a highly polyphagous pest reported to infest over 600 plant hosts globally. About 42 genetic groups/cryptic species of B. tabaci exist in the world on different hosts. The species have variable behaviour with respect to feeding, development and transmission of viral diseases. Feeding on diverse host plants affect both whitefly development and the population of the endosymbionts harboured by the insects. Due to changes in the level of endosymbionts, the virus transmission efficiency by the vector also gets affected. We investigated these interactions on five host plants – egg plant, tomato, beans, okra and cotton - using a single whitefly species Asia 1 infected with three different bacteria Portiera, Wolbachia and Arsenophonus. The Asia 1 transmits the Tomato leaf curl Bangalore virus (ToLCBV) effectively and thus was used in the interaction studies. We found a significant impact of hosts on whitefly growth and development; eggplant was most favourable host, while okra and tomato were least favourable. Among the endosymbiotic bacteria, the titre of Wolbachia was significantly affected by feeding of B. tabaci on different host plants whereas Arsenophonus and Portiera were unaffected. When whitefly fed on ToLCBV-infected tomato plants, the Arsenophonus population was significantly increased, indicating its previously confirmed role in ToLCBV transmission. Further, screening of total proteins of B. tabaci Asia 1 genetic group interacting with ToLCBV coat protein was carried out using Y2H system. Some of the proteins found to be interacting with ToLCBV CP were HSPs 70kDa, GroEL, nucleoproteins, vitellogenins, apolipophorins, lachesins, enolase. The reported protein thus would be the potential targets for novel whitefly control strategies such as RNAi or novel insecticide target sites for sustainable whitefly management after confirmation of genuine proteins.

Keywords: cDNA, whitefly, ToLCBV, endosymbionts, Y2H

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Authors: Rashi Mahato

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Talent management represents an organization’s effort to attract, develop and retain highly skilled and valuable employees. The goal is to have people with capabilities and commitment needed for current and future organizational success. The organizational talent pool is its managerial talent referred to as leadership pipeline. It is managed through various systems and processes to help the organization source, reward, evaluate, develop and move employees into various functions and roles. The pipeline bends, turns, and sometimes breaks as organizations identify who is 'ready now' and who is 'on track' for larger leadership roles. From this perspective, talent management designs structured approach and a robust mechanism for high potential employees to meet organization’s needs. The paper attempts to provide a roadmap and a structured approach towards building a high performing organization through well-defined career path. Managers want career paths to be defined, so that an adequate number of individuals may be identified and prepared to fill future vacancies. Once career progression patterns are identified, more systematic forecasting of talent requirements is possible. For the development of senior management talent or leadership team, career paths are needed as guidelines for talent management across functional and organizational lines. Career path is one of the important tools for talent management and aligning talent with business strategy. This paper briefly describes the approach for career path and the concept of

Keywords: career path, career path framework, lateral movement, talent management

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Authors: Vagisha Rawal, Anupam V. Sharma, Tarun Kumar Vats, Ashok Kumar Singh

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The antifeedant activity of methanol and hexane extract of leaves and seeds of Datura innoxia (Mill.) (Solanaceae) was evaluated against the 5th instar Spodoptera litura (F.) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) larvae in choice and no-choice leaf disc bioassays under laboratory conditions. These larvae when given a choice between the ‘control’ and ‘treated’ leaf discs in choice bioassays, consumed significantly (p ˂ 0.05) greater area of the ‘control’ leaf discs compared to those treated with the crude extracts of leaves and seeds of D. innoxia. The Antifeedant Index (AFI) for 5% concentration of the hexane extract of Datura seeds (DSHE) was 43.3% and 38.5% for methanol extract of Datura seeds (DSME). On the other hand, these values were 34.1% for the hexane extract of Datura leaves (DLHE), and 31.0% for the methanol extract of Datura leaves (DLME), respectively. In no-choice bioassays also, there was a significant (p˂0.05) reduction in the larval consumption of ‘treated’ leaf discs compared to the ‘control’ leaf discs. Maximum AFI was recorded at 5% concentration of the extracts of both the leaves and seeds with 47.7% for DSHE against 40.0% (DSME) and 39.4% for DLHE compared with 38.4% (DLME). Moreover, DSHE was found to have the maximum antifeedant effect irrespective of its concentration in comparison to the other crude extracts of leaves or seeds of D. innoxia. It is evident from these results that the crude methanol and hexane extracts of leaves and seeds of D. innoxia exhibited potent antifeedant activity against the 5th instar S. litura larvae. Also, the use of the bioactive compound(s) present in these extracts can prove to be an effective, eco-friendly, viable and sustainable component that can be integrated in IPM programs for the management of this economically important polyphagous insect pest in the Indian subcontinent.

Keywords: antifeedant activity, antifeedant index, datura innoxia, spodoptera litura

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Authors: Siah Koka, Rony Swennen

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Arumeru district is located in Arusha region in Upper Pangani basin in Tanzania. Economically it is dominated with agricultural activities. Banana, coffee, maize, beans, tomatoes, and cassava are the most important food and cash crops. This paper characterized the banana-based farming system of Arumeru district, evaluates its sustainability as well as research needs. The household questionnaire was performed on-site and on farm observation. Transect walk also involved to identify different agro- ecological zones. Results show that farm holdings (home gardens) are smaller than a hectare (0.7 ha) and continue to fragment as population continues to grow. Banana cultivation is the backbone of the farming systems present both in the upland and plains. In the upper belt banana found their place in the forest, which form the home garden structure typical to East African highland banana production systems. However, in the plains, cultivation is done in monoculture and depends heavily on irrigation. We found slightly less cultivars present and hypothetically more pest and disease pressure. This was mainly seen for Fusarium oxysporum species, which eradicates susceptible cultivars such as Mchare cultivars rapidly given the method of irrigation. The smaller permanent upland home garden plots provide thus a more suitable environment where banana perform better. It should be noted that findings indicated good performance to occur in the less suitable plains too. Good management is believed to be the most influencing factor, although our survey failed in identifying them. Population pressure is currently pushing the sustainable system in the uplands to its boundaries. Nutrient mining, deforestation and changing rain patterns threat production not only on Mt. Meru but on a global scale.

Keywords: Arumeru district, banana-based farming system, Tanzania, Arumeru district

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Authors: Saúl Rivero, Estefanya Marín, Katherine Bolaño, Elena Urán, Juan Yepes, Andrés Cossio

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Medellín is the Colombian city with the best public transport systems in the country, which is made up of two metro lines, five metrocables, two BRT-type bus lines, and a tram. But despite the above, the Aburrá Valley, the area in which the city is located, has about 3000 km of roads, which for the existing population of 3.2 million inhabitants, gives an indicator of 900 meters of road per 1000 inhabitants, which is lower than the country's average, which is approximately 3900 meters. In addition, given that in Medellín, there is approximately one vehicle for every three inhabitants, the problems of congestion and environmental pollution have worsened over the years. In this sense, due to the limitations of physical space, the low public investment in road infrastructure, it is necessary to opt for mobility alternatives according to the above. Among the options for the city, there is what is known as micromobility. Micromobility is understood to be those small and light means of transport that are used for short distances, that use electrical energy, such as skateboards and bicycles. Taking into account the above, in this work, the current state and future of micromobility in the city of Medellín were analyzed, carrying out a prospective analysis, supported by a PEST analysis, but also of the crossed impact matrices; of influence and dependence; and the technique of the actor's game. The analysis was carried out for two future scenarios: one normal and one optimistic. Result of the analysis, it was determined that micromobility as an alternative social practice to mobility in the city of Medellín has favorable conditions since the local government has adopted strategies such as the Metropolitan Bicycle Master Plan of Valle de Aburrá and the plan " Bicycle paths in the city: more public spaces for life,” where a projection of 400 kilometers of bicycle paths was estimated by the year 2030, as for that same year it is expected that 10% of all trips in the region will be in bike mode. The total trip indicator is an achievable goal, while that of the number of kilometers of bike paths would be close to being met.

Keywords: electric vehicles, micromobilty, public transport, sustainable transport

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Authors: O. J. Ajayi, J. H. Tsado, F. Olah

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The study analyzed the effect of information and communication technology (ICT) usage on cassava farmers in Otukpo local government area of Benue state, Nigeria. Primary data was collected from 120 randomly selected cassava farmers using multi-stage sampling technique. A structured questionnaire and interview schedule was employed to generate data. Data were analyzed using descriptive (frequency, mean and percentage) and inferential statistics (OLS (ordinary least square) and Chi-square). The result revealed that majority (78.3%) were within the age range of 21-50 years implying that the respondents were within the active age for maximum production. 96.8% of the respondents had one form of formal education or the other. The sources of ICT facilities readily available in area were radio(84.2%), television(64.2%) and mobile phone(90.8%) with the latter being the most relied upon for cassava farming. Most of the farmers were aware (98.3%) and had access (95.8%) to these ICT facilities. The dependence on mobile phone and radio were highly relevant in cassava stem selection, land selection, land preparation, cassava planting technique, fertilizer application and pest and disease management. The value of coefficient of determination (R2) indicated an 89.1% variation in the output of cassava farmers explained by the inputs indicated in the regression model implying that, there is a positive and significant relationship between the inputs and output. The results also indicated that labour, fertilizer and farm size were significant at 1% level of probability while ICT use was significant at 10%. Further findings showed that finance (78.3%) was the major constraint associated with ICT use. Recommendations were made on strengthening the use of ICT especially contemporary ones like the computer and internet among farmers for easy information sourcing which can boost agricultural production, improve livelihood and subsequently food security. This may be achieved by providing credit or subsidies and information centres like telecentres and cyber cafes through government assistance or partnership.

Keywords: ICT, cassava farmers, inputs, output

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Authors: Seema Vaidya

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Mining association rule is a key issue in data mining. In any case, the standard models ignore the distinction among the exchanges, and the weighted association rule mining does not transform on databases with just binary attributes. This paper proposes a novel continuous example and executes a tree (FP-tree) structure, which is an increased prefix-tree structure for securing compacted, discriminating data about examples, and makes a fit FP-tree-based mining system, FP enhanced capacity algorithm is used, for mining the complete game plan of examples by illustration incessant development. Here, this paper handles the motivation behind making remarkable and weighted item sets, i.e. rare weighted item set mining issue. The two novel brightness measures are proposed for figuring the infrequent weighted item set mining issue. Also, the algorithm are handled which perform IWI which is more insignificant IWI mining. Moreover we utilized the rare item set for choice based structure. The general issue of the start of reliable definite rules is troublesome for the grounds that hypothetically no inciting technique with no other person can promise the rightness of influenced theories. In this way, this framework expects the disorder with the uncommon signs. Usage study demonstrates that proposed algorithm upgrades the structure which is successful and versatile for mining both long and short diagnostics rules. Structure upgrades aftereffects of foreseeing rare diseases of patient.

Keywords: association rule, data mining, IWI mining, infrequent item set, frequent pattern growth

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Authors: Basak Ozkendirci

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The discovery of chemical dyes, the development of regenerated fibers, and warp knitting technology have enormous effects on the fashion world. The trends created by the information obtained in the context of various studies today shape the fashion world. Trend analysts must follow scientific developments as well as sociological events, political developments and artwork to obtain healthy data on trends. Digital printing technologies have changed the dynamics of textile printing production and also the style of printed designs. Fashion designers already have started design 3D printed accessories and garments. The research fields like the internet of things, artificial intelligence, hologram technologies, mechatronics, energy storage systems, nanotechnology are seen as the technologies that will change the social life and economy of the future. It is clear that research carried out in these areas will affect the textiles of the future and whereat the trends of fashion. The article aims to create a future vision for trend researchers and designers by giving clues about the changes to be experienced in the fashion world. In the first part of the article, information about the scientific studies that are thought to shape the future is given, and the forecasting about how the inventions that can be obtained from these studies can be adapted at the textile are presented. In the second part of the article, examples of how the new generation of innovative textiles will affect the daily life experience of the user are given.

Keywords: biotextiles, fashion trends, nanotextiles, new materials, smart textiles, techno textiles

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Authors: Asifa Amara, Prachi Singh, Kanishka, Debargho Pathak, Akshat Kumar, Jayakumar Eravelly

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Today's generation is totally dependent on technology that uses data as its fuel. The present study is all about innovations and developments in data science and gives an idea about how efficiently to use the data provided. This study will help to understand the core concepts of data science. The concept of artificial intelligence was introduced by Alan Turing in which the main principle was to create an artificial system that can run independently of human-given programs and can function with the help of analyzing data to understand the requirements of the users. Data science comprises business understanding, analyzing data, ethical concerns, understanding programming languages, various fields and sources of data, skills, etc. The usage of data science has evolved over the years. In this review article, we have covered a part of data science, i.e., machine learning. Machine learning uses data science for its work. Machines learn through their experience, which helps them to do any work more efficiently. This article includes a comparative study image between human understanding and machine understanding, advantages, applications, and real-time examples of machine learning. Data science is an important game changer in the life of human beings. Since the advent of data science, we have found its benefits and how it leads to a better understanding of people, and how it cherishes individual needs. It has improved business strategies, services provided by them, forecasting, the ability to attend sustainable developments, etc. This study also focuses on a better understanding of data science which will help us to create a better world.

Keywords: data science, machine learning, data analytics, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Snezana Rajkovic, Miroslava Markovic, Ljubinko Rakonjac, Aleksandar Lucic, Radoslav Rajkovic

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Woolly apple aphid, Eriosoma lanigerum (Hausmann) is a widely distributed pest of apple trees, especially where its parasites have been killed by insecticides. It can also be found on pear, hawthorn, mountain ash, and elm trees. Relatively small to medium-sized aphids, characterized by a reddish-brown body, a blood-red stain when crushed and a fluffy, flocculent wax covering. Specialized dermal glands produce the characteristic fluffy or powdery wax, which gives E. lanigerum its characteristic 'woolly' appearance. Also, woolly apple aphid is a problemm in nursery production of spure.The experiments were carried out in the nursery “Nevade” in Gornji Milanovac, "Srbijasume" on the spruce seedlings, aged 2 years. In this study, organic insecticide King Bo, aqueous solution (a. i. oxymatrine 0.2% + psoralen 0.4%), manufacturer Beijing Kingbo Biotech Co. Ltd., Beijing, China. extracted from plants and used as pesticides in nursery production were investigated. King Bo, bioinsecticide is manufactured from refined natural herbal extract several wild medicinal plants, such as Sophora flavescens Ait, Veratrum nigrum L, A. Carmichael, etc. Oxymatrine 2.4 SL is a stomach poison that has antifeeding and repellent action. This substance stimulates development and growth in a host plant and also controls the appearance of downy mildew.The trials were set according to instructions of methods-monitoring of changes in the number of larvae and adults compared to before treatment. The treatment plan was made according to fully randomized block design. The experiment was conducted in four repetitions. The basic plot had the area of 25 m2. Phytotoxicity was estimated by PP methods 1/135 (2), the intensity of infection according to Towsend-Heuberger, the efficiency by Abbott, the analysis of variance with Ducan test and PP/181 (2).

Keywords: bioinsecticide, efficacy, nurssery production, woolly apple aphid

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Authors: Neslihan Ozsoy Taskiran, Miray Dayioglu, Belgin Gunbey, Banu Yucel, Cigdem Takma, Unal Karik, Tugce Olgun, Levent Aydin

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A greater wax moth (Galleria mellonella L.), which is one of the most important pests after Varroa, plays a role in the transportation of many pathogens into the hive as well as damage to the honeycombs, and beekeepers suffer economically. Due to the risk that some of the methods against this pest may cause residue in bee products, and it can be harmful to the health of people who consume these products. Therefore, the most appropriate, most economical, and effective method should be applied in the moth control. For this purpose, in the first phase of the project (2017-2018), planned to be 2-stage in the Aegean Agricultural Research Institute in 2017-2020, the honeycombs, certified with good agricultural practice, were kept in a favorable condition for moths. Later, applications (Sulfur - B401 - Walnut (Leaf & Smoker) - lavender essential oil (1cc & 2cc & 3cc & 4cc) - laurel essential oil (1cc & 2cc & 3cc & 4cc) - control) were applied to the honeycombs with moths. In 2017, the B401 group had the highest wax moth damage area, and the group with the lowest wax moth damage area was determined as lavender 1cc; In 2018, the highest wax moth damage area was found in the walnut smoker group, while the lowest wax moth damage area was found in sulfur, walnut leaves, laurel 1cc - 2cc - 4cc, lavender 1cc - 2cc - 3cc - 4cc and control groups. In addition, sulfur residue amount (mean 128,18 mg/kg) in honeycomb was measured in the sulfur-treated group. Phase 1 of the project was completed, and the most important sub-groups among walnut (leaf) - lavender (1cc) and laurel (4cc) groups were identified. Accordingly, it is planned to carry out these treatments ((sulfur - B401 - walnut (leaf) - lavender (1cc) and laurel (4cc)) on honeycombs with do not contain moths, and later, it is planned to examine the effects of the treatment on the offspring area and honey yield by giving these honeycombs to the hives, in the 2nd stage of the project (2019-2020).

Keywords: honey bee, lavender essential oil, laurel essential oil, walnut, wax moth

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Authors: Yosra Ben Mhamed

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Most previous research that investigates the importance of earnings volatility for a firm’s value has focused on the effects of earnings volatility on the cost of capital. Many study illustrate that earnings volatility can reduce the firm’s value by enhancing the cost of capital. However, a few recent studies directly examine the relation between earnings volatility and subsequent earnings levels. In our study, we further explore the role of volatility in forecasting. Our study makes two primary contributions to the literature. First, taking into account the level of current firm’s performance, we provide causal theory to the link between volatility and earnings predictability. Nevertheless, previous studies testing the linearity of this relationship have not mentioned any underlying theory. Secondly, our study contributes to the vast body of fundamental analysis research that identifies a set of variables that improve valuation, by showing that earnings volatility affects the estimation of future earnings. Projections of earnings are used by valuation research and practice to derive estimates of firm value. Since we want to examine the impact of volatility on earnings predictability, we sort the sample into three portfolios according to the level of their earnings volatility in ascending order. For each quintile, we present the predictability coefficient. In a second test, each of these portfolios is, then, sorted into three further quintiles based on their level of current earnings. These yield nine quintiles. So we can observe whether volatility strongly predicts decreases on earnings predictability only for highest quintile of earnings. In general, we find that earnings volatility has an inverse relationship with earnings predictability. Our results also show that the sensibility of earnings predictability to ex-ante volatility is more pronounced among profitability firms. The findings are most consistent with overinvestment and persistence explanations.

Keywords: earnings volatility, earnings predictability, earnings persistence, current profitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: U. Pangnakorn, S. Chuenchooklin

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Acute and chronic effects of biopesticide from entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens), wood vinegar and fermented organic substances from plants: (neem Azadirachta indica + citronella grass Cymbopogon nardus Rendle + bitter bush Chromolaena odorata L.) were tested on culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.). The biopesticide was investigated for infestation reduction of the major insect pest whitefly (Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius)). The experimental plots were located at a farm in Nakhon Sawan Province, Thailand. This study was undertaken during the drought season (late November to May). Effectiveness of the treatment was evaluated in terms of acute and chronic effect. The populations of whitefly were observed and recorded every hour up to 3 hours with insect nets and yellow sticky traps after the treatments were applied for the acute effect. The results showed that bacteria ISR had the highest effectiveness for controlling whitefly infestation on culantro; the whitefly numbers on insect nets were 12.5, 10.0 and 7.5 after 1 hr, 2 hr, and 3 hr, respectively while the whitefly on yellow sticky traps showed 15.0, 10.0 and 10.0 after 1 hr, 2 hr, and 3 hr, respectively. For chronic effect, the whitefly was continuously collected and recorded at weekly intervals; the result showed that treatment of bacteria ISR found the average whitefly numbers only 8.06 and 11.0 on insect nets and sticky traps respectively, followed by treatment of nematode where the average whitefly was 9.87 and 11.43 on the insect nets and sticky traps, respectively. In addition, the minor insect pests were also observed and collected. The biopesticide influenced the reduction number of minor insect pests (red spider mites, beet armyworm, short-horned grasshopper, pygmy locusts, etc.) with only a few found on the culantro cultivation.

Keywords: whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Gennadius), culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.), acute and chronic effect, entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens)

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Renata Gagić-Serdar, Miroslava Markovic, Ljubinko Rakonjac, Aleksandar Lučić

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The paper present the results of the entomological experimental studies of the biological, ecological, and (bionomic) insect performances, such as seasonal adaptation of introduced monophagous false indigo and albizias weevil’s Acanthoscelides pallidipennis Motschulsky. and Bruchidius terrenus (Sharp), Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Bruchinae, to phenological phases of aggressive invasive host plant Amorpha fruticosa L. and Albizia julibrissin (Fabales: Fabaceae) on the territory of Republic of Serbia with special attention on assessing and monitoring of new formed and detected inter species relations between autochthons parasite wasps from fauna (Hymenoptera: Chalcidoidea) and herbaceous seed weevil beetle. During 15 years (2006-2021), on approximately 30 localities, data analyses were done for observed experimental host plants from samples with statistical significance. Status of genera from families Hymenoptera: Chalcidoidea.: Pteromalidae and Eulophidae, after intensive investigations, has been trophicly identified. Recorded seed pest species of A. fruticosa or A. julibrissin (Fabales: Fabaceae) was introduced in Serbia and planted as ornamental trees, they also were put undergo different kinds of laboratory and field research tests during this period in a goal of collecting data about lasting each of develop stage of their seed beetles. Field generations in different stages were also monitored by continuous infested seed collecting and its disection. Established host plant-seed predator linkage was observed in correlation with different environment parameters, especially water level fluctuations in bank corridor formation stands and riparian cultures.

Keywords: amorpha, albizia, chalcidoid wasp, invasiveness, weevils

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Isaac Mugume

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Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate change has been an issue due to the reported rise in global temperature and changes in the frequency as well as severity of extreme weather and climatic events. The changing climate has been attributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, including environmental changes such as ecosystems and land-uses. Climatic projections have been carried out under the auspices of the intergovernmental panel on climate change where a couple of models have been run to inform us about the likelihood of future climates. Since one of the major forcings informing the changing climate is emission of greenhouse gases, different scenarios have been proposed and future climates for different periods presented. The global climate models project different areas to experience different impacts. While regional modeling is being carried out for high impact studies, bias correction is less documented. Yet, the regional climate models suffer bias which introduces uncertainty. This is addressed in this study by bias correcting the regional models. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model under different representative concentration pathways and correcting the products of these models using observed climatic data. This study notes that bias correction (e.g., the running-mean bias correction; the best easy systematic estimator method; the simple linear regression method, nearest neighborhood, weighted mean) improves the climatic projection skill and therefore reduce the uncertainty inherent in the climatic projections.

Keywords: bias correction, climatic projections, numerical models, representative concentration pathways

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Charles Iledun Oyewole, Harira Shuaib

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While fulfilling the food security of an increasing population like Nigeria remains a major global concern, more than one-third of crop harvested is lost or wasted during harvesting or in postharvest operations. Reducing the harvest and postharvest losses, especially in developing countries, could be a sustainable solution to increase food availability, eliminate hunger and improve farmers’ livelihoods. Nigeria is one of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa with insufficient food production and high food import bill, which has had debilitating effects on the country’s economy. One of the goals of Nigeria’s agricultural development policy is to ensure that, the nation produces enough food and be less dependent on importation so as to ensure adequate and affordable food for all. Maize could fill the food gap in Nigeria’s effort to beat hunger and food insecurity. Maize is the most important cereal after rice and its production contributes immensely to food availability on the tables of many Nigerians. Maize grains constitute primary source of food for large percentage of the Nigerian populace, thus a considerable waste of this valuable food pre and post-harvest constitutes such a major agricultural bottleneck; that the reduction of pre and post-harvest losses is now a common food security strategy. In surveys conducted, as much as 60% maize outputs can be lost on the field and during the storage stage due to technical inefficiency. Field losses due to rodent damage alone can account for between 10% - 60% grain losses depending on the location. While the use of scientific storage methods can reduce losses below 2% in storage, timely harvesting of crop can check losses on the fields resulting from rodent damage or pest infestation. A push for increased crop production must be complemented by available and affordable post-harvest technologies that will reduce losses on farmers’ fields as well as in storage.

Keywords: government policy, maize, population increase, storage, sustainable food production, yield, yield losses

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Siddhartha Paul, Debabrata Das

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Closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) management focuses on integrating forward and reverse flow of material as well as information to maximize value creation over the entire life-cycle of a product. Bullwhip effect in supply chain management refers to the phenomenon where a small variation in customers’ demand results in larger variation of orders at the upstream levels of supply chain. Since the quality and quantity of products returned to the collection centers (as a part of reverse logistics process) are uncertain, bullwhip effect is inevitable in CLSC. Therefore, in the present study, first, through an extensive literature survey, we identify all the important factors related to forward as well as reverse supply chain which causes bullwhip effect in CLSC. Second, we develop a system dynamics model to study the interrelationship among the factors and their effect on the performance of overall CLSC. Finally, the results of the simulation study suggest that demand forecasting, lead times, information sharing, inventory and work in progress adjustment rate, supply shortages, batch ordering, price variations, erratic human behavior, parameter correcting, delivery time delays, return rate of used products, manufacturing and remanufacturing capacity constraints are the important factors which have a significant influence on system’s performance, specifically on bullwhip effect in a CLSC.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, closed-loop supply chain, system dynamics, variance ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Shabistana Nisar, Parvez Qamar Rizvi, Sheeraz Malik

Abstract:

The potential advantage of nanotechnology is comparably marginal due to its unclear benefits in agriculture and insufficiency in public opinion. The nanotech products might solve the pesticide problems of societal concern fairly at acceptable or low risk for consumers and environmental applications. The deleterious effect of chemicals used on crops can be compacted either by reducing the existing active ingredient to nanosize or by plummeting the metals into nanoform. Considering the above facts, an attempt was made to determine the efficacy of nanoelements viz., Silver, Copper Manganese and Neem seed kernel extract (NSKE) for effective management of gram pod borer, Helicoverpa armigera infesting chickpea, being the most damaging pest of large number of crops, gram pod borer was selected as test insect to ascertain the impact of nanoparticles under controlled conditions (25-27 ˚C, 60-80% RH). The respective nanoformulations (0.01, 0.005, 0.003, 0.0025, 0.002, 0.001) were topically applied on 4th instar larvae of pod borer. In general, nanochemicals (silver, copper, manganese, NSKE) produced relatively high mortality at low dilutions (0.01, 0.005, 0.003). The least mortality was however recorded at 0.001 concentration. Nanosilver proved most efficient producing significantly highest (f₄,₂₄=129.56, p < 0.05) mortality 63.13±1.77, 83.21±2.02 and 96.10±1.25 % at 0.01 concentration after 2nd, 4th and 6th day, respectively. The least mortality was however recorded with nanoNSKE. The mortality values obtained at respective days were 21.25±1.50%, 25.20±2.00%, and 56.20±2.25%. Nanocopper and nanomanganese showed slow rate of killing on 2nd day of exposure, but increased (79.20±3.25 and 65.33±1.25) at 0.01 dilution on 3rd day, followed by 83.00±3.50% and 70.20±2.20% mortality on 6thday. The sluggishness coupled with antifeedancy was noticed at early stage of exposure. The change in body colour to brown due to additional melanisation in copper, manganese, and silver treated larvae and demalinization in nanoNSKE exposed larvae was observed at later stage of treatment. Thus, all the nanochemicals applied, produced the significant lethal impact on Helicoverpa armigera and can be used as valuable tool for its effective management.

Keywords: chickpea, helicoverpa armigera, management, nanoparticles

Procedia PDF Downloads 345