Search results for: injury risk level

Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Osama Abaza, Tanay Datta Chowdhury

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As a driver's speed increases, so do the probability of an incident and likelihood of injury. The presence of equipment, personnel, and a changing landscape in construction zones create greater potential for incident. This is especially concerning in Alaska, where summer construction activity, coinciding with the peak annual traffic volumes, cannot be avoided. In order to reduce vehicular speeding in work zones, and therefore the probability of crash and incident occurrence, variable speed limit (VSL) systems can be implemented in the form of radar speed display trailers since the radar speed display trailers were shown to be effective at reducing vehicular speed in construction zones. Allocation of VSL not only help reduce the 85th percentile speed but also it will predominantly reduce mean speed as well. Total of 2147 incidents along with 385 crashes occurred only in one month around the construction zone in the Alaska which seriously requires proper attention. This research provided a thorough crash analysis to better understand the cause and provide proper countermeasures. Crashes were predominantly recoded as vehicle- object collision and sideswipe type and thus significant amount of crashes fall in the group of no injury to minor injury type in the severity class. But still, 35 major crashes with 7 fatal ones in a one month period require immediate action like the implementation of the VSL system as it proved to be a speed reducer in the construction zone on Alaskan roadways.

Keywords: speed, construction zone, crash, severity

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Authors: Siddig H. Hamad, Salah M. Al-Eid, Fahad M. Al-Jassas

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Composite samples of minced chicken were vacuum-packaged and pressure treated at 300, 400, 450 and 500 MPa in a Stansted 'FOOD-LAB' model S-FL-850-9-W high hydrostatic pressure research apparatus (Stansted Fluid Power Ltd., Stansted, UK). Treated and untreated samples were then stored at 3°C, and microbial content as well as some chemical and physical properties monitored. The microbial load of the untreated samples reached the spoilage level of 107 cfu/g in about one week, resulting in bad smell and dark brown color. The pressure treatments reduced total bacterial counts by about 1.8 to 3.2 log10 cycles and reduced counts of Enterobacteriaceae and Salmonella to non-detectable levels. The color of meat was slightly affected, but pH, moisture content and the oxidation products of lipids were not substantially changed. The treatment killed mainly gram negative bacteria but also caused sub-lethal injury to part of the population resulting in prolonged lag phase. The population not killed by the 350 to 450 MPa treatments grew relatively slowly during storage, and its loads reached spoilage level in 4 to 6 weeks, while the load of the population treated at 500 MPa did not reach this level till the end of a storage period of 9 weeks.

Keywords: chicken, cold storage, microbial spoilage, high hydrostatic pressure

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

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The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Francisco Toledo-Castillo, María Josefa Sospedra-Baeza, Sergio Hidalgo-Fuentes

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Motorcycles constitute about 9% of all motorized vehicles in Spain and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 21% of total accidents. Six years of motorcycle accident data were obtained through the national accident database of Spain (Dirección General de Tráfico). Some of the studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, speeding, subject’s driving license and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose, and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Key findings show helmet use, unsafe speed, the trip purpose, weather, distraction, collision type and other variables play significant roles in crash-injury outcomes. Finally, we examine evolution of mortality and severity from 2006 to 2011.

Keywords: motorcycle accidents, risk factors, statistics, Spain

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Abeer K. Jameel, Harry Evdorides

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Iraq is a middle income country where the road safety issue is considered one of the leading causes of deaths. To control the road risk issue, the Iraqi Ministry of Planning, General Statistical Organization started to organise a collection system of traffic accidents data with details related to their causes and severity. These data are published as an annual report. In this paper, a review of the available crash data in Iraq will be presented. The available data represent the rate of accidents in aggregated level and classified according to their types, road users’ details, and crash severity, type of vehicles, causes and number of causalities. The review is according to the types of models used in road safety studies and research, and according to the required road safety data in the road constructions tasks. The available data are also compared with the road safety dataset published in the United Kingdom as an example of developed country. It is concluded that the data in Iraq are suitable for descriptive and exploratory models, aggregated level comparison analysis, and evaluation and monitoring the progress of the overall traffic safety performance. However, important traffic safety studies require disaggregated level of data and details related to the factors of the likelihood of traffic crashes. Some studies require spatial geographic details such as the location of the accidents which is essential in ranking the roads according to their level of safety, and name the most dangerous roads in Iraq which requires tactic plan to control this issue. Global Road safety agencies interested in solve this problem in low and middle-income countries have designed road safety assessment methodologies which are basing on the road attributes data only. Therefore, in this research it is recommended to use one of these methodologies.

Keywords: road safety, Iraq, crash data, road risk assessment, The International Road Assessment Program (iRAP)

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Tetiana Orlуk, Nataliia Dzerovych

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Introduction: Back pain is an extremely common health care problem worldwide. Many studies show a link between an obesity and risk of lower back pain. The aim is to study correlation and peculiarities of vertebral pain in women of different age depending on their anthropometric indicators. Materials: 1886 women aged 25-89 years were examined. The patients were divided into groups according to age (25-44, 45-59, 60-74, 75-89 years old) and body mass index (BMI: to 18.4 kg/m2 (underweight), 18.5-24.9 kg/m2 (normal), 25-30 kg/m2 (overweight) and more than 30.1 kg/m2 (obese). Methods: The presence and intensity of pain was evaluated in the thoracic and lumbar spine using a visual analogue scale (VAS). BMI is calculated by the standard formula based on body weight and height measurements. Statistical analysis was performed using parametric and nonparametric methods. Significant changes were considered as p <0.05. Results: The intensity of pain in the thoracic spine was significantly higher in the underweight women in the age groups of 25-44 years (p = 0.04) and 60-74 years (p=0.005). The intensity of pain in the lumbar spine was significantly higher in the women of 45-59 years (p = 0.001) and 60-74 years (p = 0.0003) with obesity. In the women of 45-74 years BMI was significantly positively correlated with the level of pain in the lumbar spine. Obesity significantly increases the relative risk of pain in the lumbar region (RR=0.07 (95% CI: 1.03-1.12; p=0.002)), while underweight significantly increases the risk of pain in the thoracic region (RR=1.21 (95% CI: 1.00-1.46; p=0.05)). Conclusion: In women, vertebral pain syndrome may be related to the anthropometric characteristics (e.g., BMI). Underweight may indirectly influence the development of pain in the thoracic spine and increase the risk of pain in this part by 1.21 times. Obesity influences the development of pain in the lumbar spine increasing the risk by 1.07 times.

Keywords: body mass index, age, pain in thoracic and lumbar spine, women

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Authors: Ahmeda Ali, Mary Codd, Susan Brundage

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Importance: This research focuses on devising and improving Health Service Executive (HSE) policy and legislation and therefore improving patient trauma care and outcomes in Ireland. Objectives: The study measures components of the Trauma System in the district hospital setting of the Cavan/Monaghan Hospital Group (CMHG), HSE, Ireland, and uses the collected data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the CMHG Trauma System organisation, to include governance, injury data, prevention and quality improvement, scene care and facility-based care, and rehabilitation. The information will be made available to local policy makers to provide objective situational analysis to assist in future trauma service planning and service provision. Design, setting and participants: From 28 April to May 28, 2016 a cross-sectional survey using World Health Organisation (WHO) Trauma System Assessment Tool (TSAT) was conducted among healthcare professionals directly involved in the level III trauma system of CMHG. Main outcomes: Identification of the strengths and weaknesses of the Trauma System of CMHG. Results: The participants who reported inadequate funding for pre hospital (62.3%) and facility based trauma care at CMHG (52.5%) were high. Thirty four (55.7%) respondents reported that a national trauma registry (TARN) exists but electronic health records are still not used in trauma care. Twenty one respondents (34.4%) reported that there are system wide protocols for determining patient destination and adequate, comprehensive legislation governing the use of ambulances was enforced, however, there is a lack of a reliable advisory service. Over 40% of the respondents reported uncertainty of the injury prevention programmes available in Ireland; as well as the allocated government funding for injury and violence prevention. Conclusions: The results of this study contributed to a comprehensive assessment of the trauma system organisation. The major findings of the study identified three fundamental areas: the inadequate funding at CMHG, the QI techniques and corrective strategies used, and the unfamiliarity of existing prevention strategies. The findings direct the need for further research to guide future development of the trauma system at CMHG (and in Ireland as a whole) in order to maximise best practice and to improve functional and life outcomes.

Keywords: trauma, education, management, system

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Authors: Nemeh Ahmad Al-Akour, Ibrahem Alfaouri

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Objective: To examine the level of maternal awareness of SIDS and its prevention amongst Jordanian mothers in the north of Jordan, as well as to determine their SIDS-related infant care practices. Design: A cross-sectional design. Setting: The study was conducted in maternal out-patients clinics of two teaching hospitals and three maternal and child health clinic in three major health care centers in Northern Jordan. Participants: A total of 356 mothers of infants attending the maternal and child health clinics were included in this study. Measurements and findings: A self-administered questionnaire was used for collecting data study. In this study, 64%of mothers didn’t hear about SIDS, while only 7% of mothers were able to identify factors risk-reducing recommendations. Avoidance of prone sleeping was the most frequently identified recommendation (5%). There were 67.7% of mothers who put their infant in a lateral position to sleep, 61% used soft mattress surface for their babies sleep and 25.8% who shared a bed with their babies. Employed mother, mothers of higher age, and mothers living within a nuclear family were the only factors associated with maternal awareness of SIDS. Friends were the highest a source of knowledge of SIDS for mothers (44.7%). Key conclusions: There was a low level of awareness of SIDS and its associated risk factor among the mothers in Jordan. The mothers' misconception about smoking and sleeping position for their infants requires further efforts. Implications for practice: To ensure raising awareness of infant care practice regarding SIDS, a national educational intervention on SIDS risk reduction strategies and recommendations is necessary for maintaining a low rate of SIDS in the population.

Keywords: bed sharing, infant care, Jordan, sleep position, sudden infant death

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Amr A. Fouad, Waleed H. Albuali, Iyad Jresat

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The protective effect of hesperidin was investigated in rats exposed to liver injury induced by a single intraperitoneal injection of cyclophosphamide (CYP) at a dose of 150 mg kg-1. Hesperidin treatment (100 mg kg-1/day, orally) was applied for seven days, starting five days before CYP administration. Hesperidin significantly decreased the CYP-induced elevations of serum alanine aminotransferase, and hepatic malondialdehyde and myeloperoxidase activity, significantly prevented the depletion of hepatic glutathione peroxidase activity resulted from CYP administration. Also, hesperidin ameliorated the CYP-induced liver tissue injury observed by histopathological examination. In addition, hesperidin decreased the CYP-induced expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase, tumor necrosis factor-α, cyclooxygenase-2, Fas ligand, and caspase-9 in liver tissue. It was concluded that hesperidin may represent a potential candidate to protect against CYP-induced hepatotoxicity.

Keywords: hesperidin, cyclophosphamide, liver, rats

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: David Tanujaya Kurniawan

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Background: Liver injury caused by paracetamol is marked by increased serum transaminase levels. Turmeric is a local herb that is available in large quantities and inexpensive in contradiction to its substantial benefits, including its potency to increase glutathione production and regenerate hepatocyte into normal condition. Aim: The aim of this study was to analyze the potencial treatment effect of turmeric rhizome extract to reduce serum transaminase level on paracetamol induced liver toxicity in rats. Methods: This study was a laboratory experimental research with post-test only controlled group design. A group of 24 Wistar white male rats was induced with paracetamol 360 mg/kg body weight for 10 days. The group was then separated into four groups: the first and the second was treated with 100 mg/kg body weight and 150 mg/kg body weight of turmeric rhizome extract, subsequently, the third as positive control was given 27 mg/kg body weight of lesichol, while the fourth as negative control was given CMC-Na 1%. Each of this treatment was given for seven days. At the end of the study, the blood samples were taken to measure SGOT and SGPT levels. The one-way Anova test revealed significant difference in mean of SGPT level (p=0,001). The LSD test showed significant differences of SGPT levels in both treatment groups and negative control group. However, there was no sgnificant difference between positive control and both treatment groups. Conclusion: Curcuma domestica Val. rhizome extract could not reduce SGOT level, but it reduced SGPT level significantly.

Keywords: Curcuma domestica val., SGOT, SGPT, paracetamol, liver toxicity

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Guo-Hui Lu, Jing-Yi Cai, Ke-Yan Tan, Xiao-Cai Yin, Yu Zheng, Peng-Wei Shao, Yong-Liang Yang

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Soil erosion around abandoned mines is one of the important geological agents for pollutant diffuses to the lower reaches of the local river basin system. River loading of pollutants is an important parameter for remediation of abandoned mines. In order to obtain information on pollutant transport and diffusion downstream in mining area, the small tributary system of the Xiaxi River in Wanshan District of Guizhou Province was selected as the research area. Sediment and suspended matter samples were collected and determined for Pb, As, Hg, Zn, Co, Cd, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Mn by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS) with the pretreatment of wet digestion. Discussions are made for pollution status and spatial distribution characteristics. The total Hg content in the sediments ranged from 0.45 to 16.0 g/g (dry weight) with an average of 5.79 g/g, which was ten times higher than the limit of Class II soil for mercury by the National Soil Environmental Quality Standard. The maximum occurred at the intersection of the Jin River and the Xiaxi River. The potential ecological hazard index (RI) was used to evaluate the ecological risk of heavy metals in the sediments. The average RI value for the whole study area suggests the high potential ecological risk level. High Cd potential ecological risk was found at individual sites.

Keywords: heavy metal, risk assessment, sediment, suspended matter, Wanshan mercury mine, small tributary system

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

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Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Ivonne N. Pérez-Sánchez. María L. Rascón- Gasca, Angélica Riveros-Rosas, Rebeca Robles García

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Introduction: Primary caregivers of cancer patients have health problems related to their lack of time, stress, and fiscal strain. Their health problems could affect their patients’ health and also increase the expenses in public health. Aim: To describe self-care and risk behaviors in a sample of Mexican primary caregiver and the relation of these behaviors with emotional distress (caregiver burden, anxiety and depression symptoms), coping and sociodemographic variables. Method: Participated in this study 173 caregivers of a third level reference medical facility (age: M=49.4, SD=13.5) females 78%, males 22%, 57.5% were caregivers of patients with terminal cancer (CPTC), and 40.5% were caregivers of patients on oncology treatment (CPOT). Results: The 75.7% of caregivers reported to have had health problem in last six months as well as several symptoms which were related to emotional distress, these symptoms were more frequently between CPTC and female caregivers. A half (47.3%) of sample reported have had difficulties in caring their health; these difficulties were related to emotional distress and lower coping, more affected caregivers were who attend male patients and CPTC. The 76.8% of caregivers had health problems in last six months, but 26.5% of them waited to search medical care until they were very sick, and 11% didn't do it. Also, more than a half of sample (56.1%) admitted to have risk behaviors as drink alcohol, smoke or overeating for feeling well, these caregivers showed high emotional distress and lower coping. About caregivers healthy behaviors, 80% of them had a hobby; 27.2% do exercise usually and between 12% to 60% did medical checkups (glucose tests, blood pressure and cholesterol tests, eye exams and watched their weight), these caregivers had lower emotional distress and high coping, some variables related health behaviors were: care only one patient or a female patient and be a CPOT, social support, high educational level and experience as a caregiver in past. The half of caregivers were worrying to develop cancer in the future; this idea was 2.5 times more frequent in caregiver with problems to care their health. Conclusions: The results showed a big proportion of caregivers with medical problems. High emotional distress and low coping were related to physical symptoms, risk behaviors, and low self-care; poor self-care was frequently even in caregiver who have chronic illness.

Keywords: cancer, primary caregiver, risk behaviors, self-care

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

Abstract:

This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

Abstract:

The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Go Iwashita

Abstract:

The paper describes how the frequencies of heatstroke occurring in indoor built environment are related to the outdoor thermal environment with big statistical data. As the statistical accident data of heatstroke, the nationwide accident data were obtained from the National Agency for the Advancement of Sports and Health (NAASH) . The meteorological database of the Japanese Meteorological Agency supplied data about 1-hour average temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and so forth. Each heatstroke data point from the NAASH database was linked to the meteorological data point acquired from the nearest meteorological station where the accident of heatstroke occurred. This analysis was performed for a 10-year period (2005–2014). During the 10-year period, 3,819 cases of heatstroke were reported in the NAASH database for the investigated secondary/high schools of the nine Japanese representative cities. Heatstroke most commonly occurred in the outdoor schoolyard at a wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) of 31°C and in the indoor gymnasium during athletic club activities at a WBGT > 31°C. The determined accident ratio (number of accidents during each club activity divided by the club’s population) in the gymnasium during the female badminton club activities was the highest. Although badminton is played in a gymnasium, these WBGT results show that the risk level during badminton under hot and humid conditions is equal to that of baseball or rugby played in the schoolyard. Except sports, the high risk of heatstroke was observed in schools houses during cultural activities. The risk level for indoor environment under hot and humid condition would be equal to that for outdoor environment based on the above results of WBGT. Therefore control measures against hot and humid indoor condition were needed as installing air conditions not only schools but also residences.

Keywords: accidents in schools, club activity, gymnasium, heatstroke

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

Abstract:

In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Lukman Thalib, Luis Furuya-Kanamori, Rachel Walker, Brigid Gillespie, Suhail Doi

Abstract:

Background and objectives: There are many topical treatments available for Pressure Injury (PI) treatment, yet there is a lack of evidence with regards to the most effective treatment. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of various topical treatments and identify the best treatment choice(s) for PI healing. Methods: Network meta-analysis of published randomized controlled trials that compared the two or more of the following dressing groups: basic, foam, active, hydroactive, and other wound dressings. The outcome complete healing following treatment and the generalised pair-wise modelling framework was used to generate mixed treatment effects against hydroactive wound dressing, currently the standard of treatment for PIs. All treatments were then ranked by their point estimates. Main Results: 40 studies (1,757 participants) comparing 5 dressing groups were included in the analysis. All dressings groups ranked better than basic (i.e. saline gauze or similar inert dressing). The foam (RR 1.18; 95%CI 0.95-1.48) and active wound dressing (RR 1.16; 95%CI 0.92-1.47) ranked better than hydroactive wound dressing in terms of healing of PIs when the latter was used as the reference group. Conclusion & Recommendations: There was considerable uncertainty around the estimates, yet, the use of hydroactive wound dressings appear to perform better than basic dressings. Foam and active wound dressing groups show promise and need further investigation. High-quality research on clinical effectiveness of the topical treatments are warranted to identify if foam and active wound dressings do provide advantages over hydroactive dressings.

Keywords: Net work Meta Analysis, Pressure Injury, Dresssing, Pressure Ulcer

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Authors: S. Behnam Asl, H. Sadeghi Naeini, L. Sadat Ensaniat, R. Khorshidian, S. Alipour, S. Behnam Asl

Abstract:

Nowadays, the construction industry is growing, especially among developing countries. Iran also has a critical role in these industries in terms of workers disorders. Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) account for 7% of the whole diseases in the society, which makes some limitations. One of the main factors which causes WMSDs is awkward posture. Steel bar bending is considered as one of the prominent performance among construction workers. In this case study, we aimed to find the major tasks of bar benders and the most important risk factors related to it. This study was carried out among twenty workers (18-45 years) as our volunteer samples in some construction sites with less than 6 floors in two regions of Tehran municipality. The data was gathered through in depth observation, interview and questionnaire. Also postural analysis was done by OWAS method. In another part of study we used NMQ for gathering some data about psychosocial effects of work related disorders. Our findings show that 64% of workers were not aware of work risks, about 59% of workers had troubles in their wrists, hands, especially workers who worked in steel bar bending. In 46% cases lower back pain was in prevalence. Considering gathered data and results, awkward postures and long term tasks and their duration are known as the main risk factors of WMSDs among construction workers, meaning that work-rest schedule and tools design should be reconsidered to make an ergonomic condition for the mentioned workers.

Keywords: bar benders, construction workers, musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), OWAS method

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