Search results for: forecasting market diffusion

Authors: Fidelis Chigondo

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This study focuses on investigating the effectiveness of watermelon rind in phenol removal from aqueous solution. The effects of various parameters (pH, initial phenol concentration, biosorbent dosage and contact time) on phenol adsorption were investigated. The pH of 2, initial phenol concentration of 40 ppm, the biosorbent dosage of 0.6 g and contact time of 6 h also deduced to be the optimum conditions for the adsorption process. The maximum phenol removal under optimized conditions was 85%. The sorption data fitted to the Freundlich isotherm with a regression coefficient of 0.9824. The kinetics was best described by the intraparticle diffusion model and Elovich Equation with regression coefficients of 1 and 0.8461 respectively showing that the reaction is chemisorption on a heterogeneous surface and the intraparticle diffusion rate only is the rate determining step. The study revealed that watermelon rind has a potential of removing phenol from industrial wastewaters.

Keywords: biosorption, phenol, biosorbent, watermelon rind

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Authors: Randy D. Colon

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Through a freedom of information request, data pertaining to Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) households has been obtained from the Chicago Housing Authority, including rent price and number of bedrooms per HCV household, community area, and zip code from 2013 to the first quarter of 2018. Similar data pertaining to the private rental market will be obtained through public records found through the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development. The datasets will be analyzed through statistical and mapping software to investigate the potential link between HCV households and distorted rent prices. Quantitative data will be supplemented by qualitative data to investigate the lived experience of Chicago residents. Qualitative data will be collected at community meetings in the Chicago Englewood neighborhood through participation in neighborhood meetings and informal interviews with residents and community leaders. The qualitative data will be used to gain insight on the lived experience of community leaders and residents of the Englewood neighborhood in relation to housing, the rental market, and HCV. While there is an abundance of quantitative data on this subject, this qualitative data is necessary to capture the lived experience of local residents effected by a changing rental market. This topic reflects concerns voiced by members of the Englewood community, and this study aims to keep the community relevant in its findings.

Keywords: Chicago, housing, housing choice voucher program, housing subsidies, rental market

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Authors: Bouchenak Fatima, Lmegharbi Abdelbaki, Houssem Degaichia, Benrebiha Fatima

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The essential oil composition of the leaf of Artemisia absinthium from region of Cherchell (The south of Algeria) was investigated by GC, GC-MS. 27 constituents were identified correspond to 84, 63% of the total oil. The major components are Thujone (60, 82%), Chamazulènel (16, 62%), ρ-cymène (4, 29%) and 2-carène (4.25%). The antimicrobial activity of oil was tested in vitro by two methods (agar diffusion and microdilution) on three plant pathogenic fungi. This oil has been tested for antimicrobial activity against three pathogenic fungi (Botrytis cinerea, Fusarium culmorum and Helminthosporium Sp.).The study of activity was evaluated by two methods: Method of diffusion in gelose and the minimum inhibitory concentration MIC. This oil exhibited an interesting antimicrobial activity. A preliminary study showed that this oil presented high toxicity against this fungus. These results, although preliminary show a good antifungal activity, to limit and inhibit stop the development of those pathogen agent.

Keywords: artemisia absinthian, extraction process, chemical study, antifungal activity

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Authors: Laidi Maamar, Achwak Madani, Abdellah El Ahdj Abdellah

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The aim of this work is to use Support Vector regression (SVR) combined with dragonfly, firefly, Bee Colony and particle swarm Optimization algorithm to predict global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in some cities in Algeria. Combining these optimization algorithms with SVR aims principally to enhance accuracy by fine-tuning the parameters, speeding up the convergence of the SVR model, and exploring a larger search space efficiently; these parameters are the regularization parameter (C), kernel parameters, and epsilon parameter. By doing so, the aim is to improve the generalization and predictive accuracy of the SVR model. Overall, the aim is to leverage the strengths of both SVR and optimization algorithms to create a more powerful and effective regression model for various cities and under different climate conditions. Results demonstrate close agreement between predicted and measured data in terms of different metrics. In summary, SVM has proven to be a valuable tool in modeling global solar radiation, offering accurate predictions and demonstrating versatility when combined with other algorithms or used in hybrid forecasting models.

Keywords: support vector regression (SVR), optimization algorithms, global solar radiation prediction, hybrid forecasting models

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Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

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The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

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Authors: Ayesha Sohail, Khadija Maqbool, Anila Asif, Haroon Ahmad

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The field of tissue engineering is an active area of research. Bone tissue engineering helps to resolve the clinical problems of critical size and non-healing defects by the creation of man-made bone tissue. We will design and validate an efficient numerical model, which will simulate the effective diffusivity in bone tissue engineering. Our numerical model will be based on the finite element analysis of the diffusion-reaction equations. It will have the ability to optimize the diffusivity, even at multi-scale, with the variation of time. It will also have a special feature, with which we will not only be able to predict the oxygen, glucose and cell density dynamics, more accurately, but will also sort the issues arising due to anisotropy. We will fix these problems with the help of modifying the governing equations, by selecting appropriate spatio-temporal finite element schemes, by adaptive grid refinement strategy and by transient analysis.

Keywords: scaffolds, porosity, diffusion, transient analysis

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Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch

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Authors: Mustafa Hyder, Shamaila Burney, Roohi Mumtaz

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The aim of this study is to determine the consequences of silent or hidden messages and their effectiveness in deteriorating or altering our ethical norms and values. The study also focuses the repercussions of subconscious messages and possibilities of ethical diffusion in our society. The research based on the question that what are the different factors that motivate advertisers to include subliminal messages and how much these unspoken truths affecting our ethical values silently. What are the causes and effects of the subliminal messages in general and the level of ethical diffusion and its acceptance? The concept of advertising is to promote and highlight the salient features of the products and services, a company offers. Advertising is the best option nowadays to convey the related information to the consumers so that they attracted more towards the products or services proposed. The other thing advertisers concentrate, is the psychological characteristics using to persuade consumers choice. Using skills and tactics of advertising to promote a product in such a way that it creates a sensation, controversy or brand consciousness among the consumers or customers. The purpose to have increase purchase or to gain popularity in comparison to their competitors, they sometimes use such tactics and techniques, which is highly unethical and immoral for any society. These kinds of stuff used very smartly within the ads that only the conscious mind subconsciously catches the meaning of those glittery images, posters, phrases, tag lines and non-verbal clues. This study elucidates the subliminal advertising their repercussions and impact on consumer’s behaviour in our society with the help of few ads embedded subliminally and the trends of profitability. The methods used to accomplish our research are based on qualitative research along with the research articles, books and feedback from focused groups regarding the topic. The basic objective of this study was that, there is no significant change in the behaviour and attitude observed. These messages capture very short-term life on the viewer’s subconscious mind but in long run people get used to it and hence not only have the diffusion power but also has the high level of acceptance as well that reflects mostly through their social behaviours and attitudes.

Keywords: ethical diffusion, subconscious, subliminal advertising, unspoken facts

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Authors: L. Totladze

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The role of financial sector in supporting economic growth and development is well acknowledged. The term spread (the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) has been found useful for predicting economic variables as output growth, inflation, industrial production, consumption. The temp spread is one of the leading economic indicators according to NBER methodology. Leading economic indicators are widely used in forecasting of economic activity. Many empirical studies find that the term spread predicts future economic activity. The article shortly explains how the term spread might predict future economic activity. This paper analyses the dynamics of the spread between short and long-term interest rates in countries with transition economies. The research paper analyses term spread dynamics in Georgia and compare it with post-communist countries and transition economies spread dynamics. In Georgia, the banking sector plays an important and dominant role in the financial sector, especially with respect to the mobilization of savings and provision of credit and may impact on economic activity. For this purpose, we study the impact of the term spread on economic growth in Georgia.

Keywords: forecasting, leading economic indicators, term spread, transition economies

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Authors: Mohammad Hosein Panahi, Naser Yazdani

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we present a technical trading strategy that leverages the FinBERT language model and financial news analysis with a focus on news related to a subset of Nasdaq 100 stocks. Our approach surpasses the baseline Range Break-out strategy in the Bitcoin market, yielding a remarkable 24.8% increase in the win ratio for all Friday trades and an impressive 48.9% surge in short trades specifically on Fridays. Moreover, we conduct rigorous hypothesis testing to establish the statistical significance of these improvements. Our findings underscore considerable potential of our NLP-driven approach in enhancing trading strategies and achieving greater profitability within financial markets.

Keywords: quantitative finance, technical analysis, bitcoin market, NLP, language models, FinBERT, technical trading

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Authors: Devinder Singh, Rajneesh Kumar, Arvind Kumar

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The present investigation deals with generalized model of the equations for a homogeneous isotropic microstretch thermoelastic half space with mass diffusion medium. Theories of generalized thermoelasticity Lord-Shulman (LS) Green-Lindsay (GL) and Coupled Theory (CT) theories are applied to investigate the problem. The stresses in the considered medium have been studied due to normal force and tangential force. The normal mode analysis technique is used to calculate the normal stress, shear stress, couple stresses and microstress. A numerical computation has been performed on the resulting quantity. The computed numerical results are shown graphically.

Keywords: microstretch, thermoelastic, normal mode analysis, normal and tangential force, microstress force

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Authors: Antonia Müller, Svend Reuse

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The Brexit referendum in June 2016 led to different publications analysing potential consequences for European and British insurance companies under the European Passport. This study addresses a research gap, regarding the measures taken by insurance companies based in the United Kingdom and thus on structural changes to the European insurance market by an innovative structured Solvency and Financial Condition Report content analysis. In scope are all insurance companies based in the United Kingdom, that fall under the Solvency II supervisory regime. The results show that the majority of British Solvency II insurance companies in scope, conducting cross-border business to the European Union, have applied and reported measures to be able to continue operating this cross-border business after Brexit. In addition, the study shows that 34 new insurance companies based in the European Union were established as a result of Brexit, indicating structural changes to the European insurance market.

Keywords: brexit, europe, insurance market, solvency and financial condition repot, structural changes

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Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased

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The objectives of this research were to study the influence of market orientation and supply chain management on competitive capability in case of the automotive parts industry in Thailand. This study employed by survey research and questionnaire was used to collect the data from 400 entrepreneurs in the automotive parts industry in Thailand. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The results revealed that the overall dimensions of marketing orientation, namely, responsiveness, intelligence generation, and intelligence dissemination were rated at the high level. As well, the overall dimensions of supply chain management, namely, collaboration, communication, trust, and commitment were also rated at the high level. Furthermore, the hypothesis testing results showed that supply chain management and market orientation affected competitive capability of the automotive parts industry in Thailand which these two variables could be combined to predict competitive capability of the automotive parts industry in Thailand by 31.5 percent.

Keywords: automotive parts industry, competitive capability, market orientation, supply chain management

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Paresh Patel, Priya Patel, Vaidehi Sorathiya, Navin Sheth

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The aim of present work was to fabricate Salmeterol Xinafoate (SX) metered dose inhaler (MDI) for asthma and to evaluate the SX loaded solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) for pulmonary delivery. Solid lipid nanoparticles can be used to deliver particles to the lungs via MDI. A modified solvent emulsification diffusion technique was used to prepare Salmeterol Xinafoate loaded solid lipid nanoparticles by using compritol 888 ATO as lipid, tween 80 as surfactant, D-mannitol as cryoprotecting agent and L-leucine was used to improve aerosolization behaviour. Box-Behnken design was applied with 17 runs. 3-D surface response plots and contour plots were drawn and optimized formulation was selected based on minimum particle size and maximum % EE. % yield, in vitro diffusion study, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, DSC, FTIR also characterized. Particle size, zeta potential analyzed by Zetatrac particle size analyzer and aerodynamic properties was carried out by cascade impactor. Pre convulsion time was examined for control group, treatment group and compare with marketed group. MDI was evaluated for leakage test, flammability test, spray test and content per puff. By experimental design, particle size and % EE found to be in range between 119-337 nm and 62.04-76.77% by solvent emulsification diffusion technique. Morphologically, particles have spherical shape and uniform distribution. DSC & FTIR study showed that no interaction between drug and excipients. Zeta potential shows good stability of SLNs. % respirable fraction found to be 52.78% indicating reach to the deep part of lung such as alveoli. Animal study showed that fabricated MDI protect the lungs against histamine induced bronchospasm in guinea pigs. MDI showed sphericity of particle in spray pattern, 96.34% content per puff and non-flammable. SLNs prepared by Solvent emulsification diffusion technique provide desirable size for deposition into the alveoli. This delivery platform opens up a wide range of treatment application of pulmonary disease like asthma via solid lipid nanoparticles.

Keywords: salmeterol xinafoate, solid lipid nanoparticles, box-behnken design, solvent emulsification diffusion technique, pulmonary delivery

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Authors: Manel Youssef, Lotfi Belkacem

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This paper employs multivariate long memory GARCH models to simultaneously estimate mean and conditional variance spillover effects between oil prices and different financial markets. Since different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it’s important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2012 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatilities between oil prices and some of the examined financial markets. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.

Keywords: oil prices, stock indices returns, oil volatility, contagion, DCC-multivariate (FI) GARCH

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Authors: Balaji Ganesh Rajagopal, Subramanian Appavu alias Balamurugan, Ayyalraj Midhun Kumar, Krishnan Nallaperumal

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Intelligent Transportation System is an Emerging area to solve multiple transportation problems. Several forms of inputs are needed in order to solve ITS problems. Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) is a core and important ITS area of this modern era. This involves travel time forecasting, efficient road map analysis and cost based path selection, Detection of the vehicle in the dynamic conditions and Traffic congestion state forecasting. This Article designs and provides an algorithm for traffic data generation which can be used for the above said ATIS application. By inputting the real world traffic situation in the form of video sequences, the algorithm determines the Traffic density in terms of congestion, number of vehicles in a given path which can be fed for various ATIS applications. The Algorithm deduces the key frame from the video sequences and follows the Blob detection, Identification and Tracking using connected components algorithm to determine the correlation between the vehicles moving in the real road scene.

Keywords: traffic transportation, traffic density estimation, blob identification and tracking, relative velocity of vehicles, correlation between vehicles

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Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

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Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

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Authors: G. Carrero, C. Contreras, M. J. Hendzel

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Linker histones or histones H1 are highly mobile nuclear proteins that regulate the organization of chromatin and limit DNA accessibility by binding to the chromatin structure (DNA and associated proteins). It is known that this binding process is driven by both slow (strong binding) and rapid (weak binding) interactions. However, the exact binding mechanism has not been fully described. Moreover, the existing models only account for one type of bound population that does not distinguish explicitly between the weakly and strongly bound proteins. Thus, we propose different systems of reaction-diffusion equations to describe explicitly the rapid and slow interactions during a FRAP (Fluorescence Recovery After Photobleaching) experiment. We perform a model comparison analysis to characterize the binding mechanism of histone H1 and provide new meaningful biophysical information on the kinetics of histone H1.

Keywords: FRAP (Fluorescence Recovery After Photobleaching), histone H1, histone H1 binding kinetics, linker histone, reaction-diffusion equation

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Authors: Mayank Mishra

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Market Economy can be broadly defined as economic system where supply and demand regulate the economy and in which decisions pertaining to production, consumption, allocation of resources, price and competition are made by collective actions of individuals or organisations with limited government intervention. On the other hand Market Society is one where instead of the economy being embedded in social relations, social relations are embedded in the economy. A market economy becomes a market society when all of land, labour and capital are commodified. This transition also has effect on people’s attitude and values. Such a transition commence impacting the non-material aspect of life such as public education, public health and the like. The inception of neoliberal policies in non-market norms altered the nature of social goods like public health that raised the following questions. What impact would the transition to a market society make on people in terms of accessibility to public health? Is healthcare a commodity that can be subjected to a competitive market place? What kind of private investments are being made in public health and how do private investments alter the nature of a public good like healthcare? This research problem will employ empirical-analytical approach that includes deductive reasoning which will be using the existing concept of market economy and market society as a foundation for the analytical framework and the hypotheses to be examined. The research also intends to inculcate the naturalistic elements of qualitative methodology which refers to studying of real world situations as they unfold. The research will analyse the existing literature available on the subject. Concomitantly the research intends to access the primary literature which includes reports from the World Bank, World Health Organisation (WHO) and the different departments of respective ministries of the countries for the analysis. This paper endeavours to highlight how the issue of commodification of public health would lead to perpetual increase in its inaccessibility leading to stratification of healthcare services where one can avail the better services depending on the extent of one’s ability to pay. Since the fundamental maxim of private investments is to churn out profits, these kinds of trends would pose a detrimental effect on the society at large perpetuating the lacuna between the have and the have-nots.The increasing private investments, both, domestic and foreign, in public health sector are leading to increasing inaccessibility of public health services. Despite the increase in various public health schemes the quality and impact of government public health services are on a continuous decline.

Keywords: commodity, India and Pakistan, market society, public health

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Authors: Abraham Castellanos, Christophe Durville, Sophie Echenim

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In this article, a portfolio optimization problem is performed in a Solvency II context: it illustrates how advanced optimization techniques can help to tackle complex operational pain points around the monitoring, control, and stability of Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The market SCR of a portfolio is calculated as a combination of SCR sub-modules. These sub-modules are the results of stress-tests on interest rate, equity, property, credit and FX factors, as well as concentration on counter-parties. The market SCR is non convex and non differentiable, which does not make it a natural optimization criteria candidate. In the SCR formulation, correlations between sub-modules are fixed, whereas risk-driven portfolio allocation is usually driven by the dynamics of the actual correlations. Implementing a portfolio construction approach that is efficient on both a regulatory and economic standpoint is not straightforward. Moreover, the challenge for insurance portfolio managers is not only to achieve a minimal SCR to reduce non-invested capital but also to ensure stability of the SCR. Some optimizations have already been performed in the literature, simplifying the standard formula into a quadratic function. But to our knowledge, it is the first time that the standard formula of the market SCR is used in an optimization problem. Two solvers are combined: a bundle algorithm for convex non- differentiable problems, and a BFGS (Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb- Shanno)-SQP (Sequential Quadratic Programming) algorithm, to cope with non-convex cases. A market SCR minimization is then performed with historical data. This approach results in significant reduction of the capital requirement, compared to a classical Markowitz approach based on the historical volatility. A comparative analysis of different optimization models (equi-risk-contribution portfolio, minimizing volatility portfolio and minimizing value-at-risk portfolio) is performed and the impact of these strategies on risk measures including market SCR and its sub-modules is evaluated. A lack of diversification of market SCR is observed, specially for equities. This was expected since the market SCR strongly penalizes this type of financial instrument. It was shown that this direct effect of the regulation can be attenuated by implementing constraints in the optimization process or minimizing the market SCR together with the historical volatility, proving the interest of having a portfolio construction approach that can incorporate such features. The present results are further explained by the Market SCR modelling.

Keywords: financial risk, numerical optimization, portfolio management, solvency capital requirement

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: A. Azari, S. S. K. Seyyedi

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One of the unaddressed and open challenges in the nano-networking is the characteristics of noise. The previous analysis, however, has concentrated on end-to-end communication model with no separate modelings for propagation channel and noise. By considering a separate signal propagation and noise model, the design and implementation of an optimum receiver will be much easier. In this paper, we justify consideration of a separate additive Gaussian noise model of a nano-communication system based on the molecular communication channel for which are applicable for MSK and MOSK modulation schemes. The presented noise analysis is based on the Brownian motion process, and advection molecular statistics, where the received random signal has a probability density function whose mean is equal to the mean number of the received molecules. Finally, the justification of received signal magnitude being uncorrelated with additive non-stationary white noise is provided.

Keywords: molecular, noise, diffusion, channel

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Authors: Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa

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This paper attempts to assess the impacts of Climate change (CC) on inequalities in the labour market. CC will have the most serious effects on some vulnerable economic sectors, such as agriculture, livestock or tourism, but also on the most vulnerable population groups. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of CC on the labour market and particularly on Mexican women. Influential documents such as the synthesis reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and 2014 revived a global effort to counteract the effects of CC, called for an analysis of the impacts on vulnerable socio-economic groups and on economic activities, and for the development of decision-making tools to enable policy and other decisions based on the complexity of the world in relation to climate change, taking into account socio-economic attributes. We follow up this suggestion and determine the impact of CC on vulnerable populations in the Mexican labour market, taking into account two attributes (gender and level of qualification of workers). Most studies have focused on the effects of CC on the agricultural sector, as it is considered a highly vulnerable economic sector to the effects of climate variability. This research seeks to contribute to the existing literature taking into account, in addition to the agricultural sector, other sectors such as tourism, water availability, and energy that are of vital importance to the Mexican economy. Likewise, the effects of climate change will be extended to the labour market and specifically to women who in some cases have been left out. The studies are sceptical about the impact of CC on the female labour market because of the perverse effects on women's domestic work, which are too often omitted from analyses. This work will contribute to the literature by integrating domestic work, which in the case of Mexico is much higher among women than among men (80.9% vs. 19.1%), according to the 2009 time use survey. This study is relevant since it will allow us to analyse impacts of climate change not only in the labour market of the formal economy, but also in the non-market sphere. Likewise, we consider that including the gender dimension is valid for the Mexican economy as it is a country with high degrees of gender inequality in the labour market. In the OECD economic study for Mexico (2017), the low labour participation of Mexican women is highlighted. Although participation has increased substantially in recent years (from 36% in 1990 to 47% in 2017), it remains low compared to the OECD average where women participate around 70% of the labour market. According to Mexico's 2009 time use survey, domestic work represents about 13% of the total time available. Understanding the interdependence between the market and non-market spheres, and the gender division of labour within them is the necessary premise for any economic analysis aimed at promoting gender equality and inclusive growth.

Keywords: climate change, labour market, domestic work, rural sector

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Authors: Miriam Sosa, Edgar Ortiz, Alejandra Cabello

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This paper examines the volatility changes and leverage effects of the MILA stock markets and their changes since the 2007 global financial crisis. This group integrates the stock markets from Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Volatility changes and leverage effects are tested with a symmetric GARCH (1,1) and asymmetric TARCH (1,1) models with a dummy variable in the variance equation. Daily closing prices of the stock indexes of Chile (IPSA), Colombia (COLCAP), Mexico (IPC) and Peru (IGBVL) are examined for the period 2003:01 to 2015:02. The evidence confirms the presence of an overall increase in asymmetric market volatility in the Peruvian share market since the 2007 crisis.

Keywords: financial crisis, Latin American Integrated Market, TARCH, GARCH

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Authors: Baljinder Singh, Navneet Sharma

Abstract:

The skin can be used as the site for drug administration for continuous transdermal drug infusion into the systemic circulation. For the continuous diffusion/penetration of the drugs through the intact skin surface membrane-moderated systems, matrix dispersion type systems, adhesive diffusion controlled systems and micro reservoir systems have been developed. Various penetration enhancers are used for the drug diffusion through skin. In matrix dispersion type systems, the drug is dispersed in the solvent along with the polymers and solvent allowed to evaporate forming a homogeneous drug-polymer matrix. Matrix type systems were developed in the present study. In the present work, an attempt has been made to develop a matrix-type transdermal therapeutic system comprising of ondansetron-HCl with different ratios of hydrophilic and hydrophobic polymeric combinations using solvent evaporation technique. The physicochemical compatibility of the drug and the polymers was studied by infrared spectroscopy. The results obtained showed no physical-chemical incompatibility between the drug and the polymers. The patches were further subjected to various physical evaluations along with the in-vitro permeation studies using rat skin. On the basis of results obtained form the in vitro study and physical evaluation, the patches containing hydrophilic polymers i.e. polyvinyl alcohol and poly vinyl pyrrolidone with oleic acid as the penetration enhancer(5%) were considered as suitable for large scale manufacturing with a backing layer and a suitable adhesive membrane.

Keywords: transdermal drug delivery, penetration enhancers, hydrophilic and hydrophobic polymers, ondansetron HCl

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Authors: Liudmila A.Guzikova

Abstract:

Being federative state Russia includes more than 80 subjects which are widely diverse by climatic conditions, demographic characteristics, cultural traditions, intensity of migration, economic development and investment attraction and other parameters. Now, in the regions of the country all forms of housing problem are present - housing mismatch to sanitary and hygienic standards, overcrowding, forced residence in financially burdensome housing, homelessness, -although the extent of these symptoms varies widely. Heterogeneity of regional conditions in combination with specifics of regional housing situation requires to concentrate the study of housing problem on the regional level. Traditionally housing market and mortgage are considered as the instruments of housing problem solving. The question arises how the housing market and mortgage market contribute to solving the housing problem in the regions of Russia. Though the purchase of dwelling in ownership should not be regarded as a universal method of the housing problem solving, the purchase of dwelling both by own funds or by use of mortgage can reduce the problem and enhance public satisfaction of living conditions. The aim of the study is to identify differences and similarities in the development of regional housing markets and mortgage lending in the regions of Russia and to evaluate their impact on the status of the housing problem. To achieve the aim of the study the methods of correlation and regression analysis are used. The data of federal statistics constitutes the information base of research. The results of the study contribute to better understanding of the interrelations in housing sphere and can be used to work out social and economic development programs in the regions.

Keywords: housing market, housing problem, mortgage, regional economy

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Siri-orn Champatong

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to study factors that were related with travel behaviors of Thai tourists at the Ayothaya Floating Market, Phra Nakhon Sri Ayutthaya. The quantitative research was conducted with 400 samples of Thai tourists traveling to the Ayothaya Floating Market. The Questionnaire was a tool used to collect data, and the statistics used for data analysis were mean and Pearson product moment correlation coefficient. The results found that Thai tourists focused on attraction, easy access and facilities of the tourist spot at a high level. In addition, they gave priority to the marketing mix in the dimension of products, price, and distribution channels at a high level as well. For marketing promotion, it was at the moderate level. The results of hypothesis testing revealed that factors related to the attractions of the tourist destination, easy access to the tourist destination, the facilities of the tourist spot, and product and price of the marketing mix were associated with travel behaviors in the aspect of the number of visits used and the budget on tourism.

Keywords: floating market, marketing mix, tourism attractions, travelling behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Igor P. Maximkin, Arkady A. Yukhimchuk, Victor V. Baluev, Igor L. Malkov, Rafael K. Musyaev, Damir T. Sitdikov, Alexey V. Buchirin, Vasily V. Tikhonov

Abstract:

Minimization of tritium diffusion leakage when developing devices handling tritium-containing media is key problems whose solution will at least allow essential enhancement of radiation safety and minimization of diffusion losses of expensive tritium. One of the ways to solve this problem is to use Al₂O₃ high-strength non-porous ceramics as a structural material of the bed body. This alumina ceramics offers high strength characteristics, but its main advantages are low hydrogen permeability (as against the used structural material) and high dielectric properties. The latter enables direct induction heating of an hydride-forming metal without essential heating of the pressure and containment vessel. The use of alumina ceramics and induction heating allows: - essential reduction of tritium extraction time; - several orders reduction of tritium diffusion leakage; - more complete extraction of tritium from metal hydrides due to its higher heating up to melting in the event of final disposal of the device. The paper presents computational and experimental results for the tritium bed designed to absorb 6 liters of tritium. Titanium was used as hydrogen isotope sorbent. Results of hydrogen realize kinetic from hydride-forming metal, strength and cyclic service life tests are reported. Recommendations are also provided for the practical use of the given bed type.

Keywords: aluminum oxide ceramic, hydrogen pressure, hydrogen isotope storage, titanium hydride

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Elena Petersen, Inna Kornienko, Svetlana Guryeva, Sergey Simakov

Abstract:

In vitro organoid cultivation requires the simultaneous provision of necessary vascularization and nutrients perfusion of cells during organoid development. However, many aspects of this problem are still unsolved. The functionality of vascular network intergrowth is limited during early stages of organoid development since a function of the vascular network initiated on final stages of in vitro organoid cultivation. Therefore, a microchannel network should be created in early stages of organoid cultivation in hydrogel matrix aimed to conduct and maintain minimally required the level of nutrients perfusion for all cells in the expanding organoid. The network configuration should be designed properly in order to exclude hypoxic and necrotic zones in expanding organoid at all stages of its cultivation. In vitro vascularization is currently the main issue within the field of tissue engineering. As perfusion and oxygen transport have direct effects on cell viability and differentiation, researchers are currently limited only to tissues of few millimeters in thickness. These limitations are imposed by mass transfer and are defined by the balance between the metabolic demand of the cellular components in the system and the size of the scaffold. Current approaches include growth factor delivery, channeled scaffolds, perfusion bioreactors, microfluidics, cell co-cultures, cell functionalization, modular assembly, and in vivo systems. These approaches may improve cell viability or generate capillary-like structures within a tissue construct. Thus, there is a fundamental disconnect between defining the metabolic needs of tissue through quantitative measurements of oxygen and nutrient diffusion and the potential ease of integration into host vasculature for future in vivo implantation. A model is proposed for growth prognosis of the organoid perfusion based on joint simulations of general nutrient diffusion, nutrient diffusion to the hydrogel matrix through the contact surfaces and microchannels walls, nutrient consumption by the cells of expanding organoid, including biomatrix contraction during tissue development, which is associated with changed consumption rate of growing organoid cells. The model allows computing effective microchannel network design giving minimally required the level of nutrients concentration in all parts of growing organoid. It can be used for preliminary planning of microchannel network design and simulations of nutrients supply rate depending on the stage of organoid development.

Keywords: 3D model, consumption model, diffusion, spheroid, tissue organoid

Procedia PDF Downloads 301