Search results for: extreme rainfall events

Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: C. S. Subhashini, H. L. Premaratne

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Landslides are the most recurrent and prominent disaster in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has been subjected to a number of extreme landslide disasters that resulted in a significant loss of life, material damage, and distress. It is required to explore a solution towards preparedness and mitigation to reduce recurrent losses associated with landslides. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hidden Markov Model (HMMs) are now widely used in many computer applications spanning multiple domains. This research examines the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in landslides predictions and the possibility of applying the modern technology to predict landslides in a prominent geographical area in Sri Lanka. A thorough survey was conducted with the participation of resource persons from several national universities in Sri Lanka to identify and rank the influencing factors for landslides. A landslide database was created using existing topographic; soil, drainage, land cover maps and historical data. The landslide related factors which include external factors (Rainfall and Number of Previous Occurrences) and internal factors (Soil Material, Geology, Land Use, Curvature, Soil Texture, Slope, Aspect, Soil Drainage, and Soil Effective Thickness) are extracted from the landslide database. These factors are used to recognize the possibility to occur landslides by using an ANN and HMM. The model acquires the relationship between the factors of landslide and its hazard index during the training session. These models with landslide related factors as the inputs will be trained to predict three classes namely, ‘landslide occurs’, ‘landslide does not occur’ and ‘landslide likely to occur’. Once trained, the models will be able to predict the most likely class for the prevailing data. Finally compared two models with regards to prediction accuracy, False Acceptance Rates and False Rejection rates and This research indicates that the Artificial Neural Network could be used as a strong decision support system to predict landslides efficiently and effectively than Hidden Markov Model.

Keywords: landslides, influencing factors, neural network model, hidden markov model

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Authors: B. S. Chaudhary

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The severity and frequencies of different disasters on the globe is increasing in recent years. India is also facing the disasters in the form of drought, cyclone, earthquake, landslides, and floods. One of the major causes of disasters in northern India is flood. There are great losses and extensive damage to the agricultural crops, property, human, and animal life. This is causing environmental imbalances at places. The annual global figures for losses due to floods run into over 2 billion dollar. India is a vast country with wide variations in climate and topography. Due to widespread and heavy rainfall during the monsoon months, floods of varying magnitude occur all over the country during June to September. The magnitude depends upon the intensity of rainfall, its duration and also the ground conditions at the time of rainfall. Haryana, one of the agriculturally dominated northern states is also suffering from a number of disasters such as floods, desertification, soil erosion, land degradation etc. Earthquakes are also frequently occurring but of small magnitude so are not causing much concern and damage. Most of the damage in Haryana is due to floods. Floods in Haryana have occurred in 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995, 1998, and 2010 to mention a few. The present paper deals with the Remote Sensing and GIS applications in preparing flood risk maps in parts of Haryana State India. The satellite data of various years have been used for mapping of flood affected areas. The Flooded areas have been interpreted both visually and digitally and two classes-flooded and receded water/ wet areas have been identified for each year. These have been analyzed in GIS environment to prepare the risk maps. This shows the areas of high, moderate and low risk depending on the frequency of flood witness. The floods leave a trail of suffering in the form of unhygienic conditions due to improper sanitation, water logging, filth littered in the area, degradation of materials and unsafe drinking water making the people prone to many type diseases in short and long run. Attempts have also been made to enumerate the causes of floods. The suggestions are given for mitigating the fury of floods and proper management issues related to evacuation and safe places nearby.

Keywords: flood mapping, GIS, Haryana, India, remote sensing, space technology

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Authors: José de Jesús Rivero Oliva, Jesús Salomón Llanes, Manuel Perdomo Ojeda, Antonio Torres Valle

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Combinatorial explosion is a common problem to both predominant methods for solving fault trees: Minimal Cut Set (MCS) approach and Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). High memory consumption impedes the complete solution of very complex fault trees. Only approximated non-conservative solutions are possible in these cases using truncation or other simplification techniques. The paper proposes a method (CSolv+) for solving complex fault trees, without any possibility of combinatorial explosion. Each individual MCS is immediately discarded after its contribution to the basic events importance measures and the Top gate Upper Bound Probability (TUBP) has been accounted. An estimation of the Top gate Exact Probability (TEP) is also provided. Therefore, running in a computer cluster, CSolv+ will guarantee the complete solution of complex fault trees. It was successfully applied to 40 fault trees from the Aralia fault trees database, performing the evaluation of the top gate probability, the 1000 Significant MCSs (SMCS), and the Fussell-Vesely, RRW and RAW importance measures for all basic events. The high complexity fault tree nus9601 was solved with truncation probabilities from 10-²¹ to 10-²⁷ just to limit the execution time. The solution corresponding to 10-²⁷ evaluated 3.530.592.796 MCSs in 3 hours and 15 minutes.

Keywords: system reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, fault tree analysis, basic events importance measures

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Authors: Maged El Osta, Milad Masoud

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Al Jabal Al Akhdar in the north-eastern part of Libya represents a region with promising ecological underpinning for grazing and other agricultural developments. The groundwater potential of both Upper Cretaceous and Eocene aquifers was studied based the available literature and a complete database for about 112 water wells drilled in the period 2003-2009. In this research, the hydrogeological methods will be integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) that played a main role in highlighting the spatial characteristics of the groundwater system. The results indicate that the depth to water for the Upper Cretaceous aquifer ranges from 150 to 458 m, and the piezometric surface decreases from over 500 m (m.s.l) in the northern parts to -20 m (m.s.l) in southeastern part. Salinity ranges between 303 and 1329 mg/l indicating that groundwater belongs to the slightly fresh water class. In the Eocene aquifer, the depth to groundwater ranges from 120 to 290.5 m and the potentiometric level decreases gradually southwards from 220 to -51 m (m.s.l) and characterized by steep slope in the southeastern part of the study area, where the aquifer characterized by relatively high productivity (specific capacity ranges between 10.08 and 332.3 m2/day). The groundwater salinity within this aquifer ranges between 198 and 2800 mg/l (fresh to brackish water class). The annual average rainfall (from 280 to 500 mm) plays a significant role in the recharge of the two aquifers. The priority of groundwater quality and potentiality increases towards the central and northern portions of the concerned area.

Keywords: Eocene and Upper Cretaceous aquifers, rainfall, potentiality, Geographic Information System (GIS)

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Authors: Giorgi Bregadze

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Tourism is the most viable and sustainable economic development option for Georgia and one of the main sources of foreign exchange earnings. Events are considered as one of the most effective ways to attract foreign visitors to the country, and, recently, the government of Georgia has begun investing in this sector very actively. This article stresses the necessity of research based economic policy in the tourism sector. In this regard, it is of paramount importance to measure the economic effects of the events which are subsidized by taxpayers’ money. The economic effect of events can be analyzed from two perspectives; financial perspective of the government and perspective of economic effects of the tourism administration. The article emphasizes more realistic and all-inclusive focus of the economic effect analysis of the tourism administration as it concentrates on the income of residents and local businesses, part of which generate tax revenues for the government. The public would like to know what the economic returns to investment are. In this article, the methodology used to describe the economic effects of UEFA Super Cup held in Tbilisi, will help to answer this question. Methodology is based on three main principles and covers three stages. Using the suggested methodology article estimates the direct economic effect of UEFA Super cup on Georgian economy. Although the attempt to make an economic effect analysis of the event was successful in Georgia, some obstacles and insufficiencies were identified during the survey. The article offers several recommendations that will help to refine methodology and improve the accuracy of the data. Furthermore, it is very important to receive the correct standard of measurement of events in Georgia. In this caseü non-ethical acts of measurement which are widely utilized by different research companies will not trigger others to show overestimated effects. It is worth mentioning that to author’s best knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the economic effect of an event held in Georgia.

Keywords: biased economic effect analysis, expenditure of local citizens, time switchers and casuals, UEFA super cup

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Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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Authors: Inês Amorim Leitão, Loes van Shaick, António Dinis Ferreira, Violette Geissen

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Plastic pollution is a growing concern worldwide: plastics are commercialized in large quantities and it takes a long time for them to degrade. When in the environment, plastic is fragmented into microplastics (<5mm), which have been found in all environmental compartments at different locations. Microplastics contribute to the environmental pollution in water, air and soil and are linked to human health problems. The progressive increase of population living in cities led to the aggravation of the pollution problem worldwide, especially in urban environments. Urban areas represent a strong source of pollution, through the roads, industrial production, wastewater, landfills, etc. It is expected that pollutants such as microplastics are transported diffusely from the sources through different pathways such as wind and rain. Therefore, it is very complex to quantify, control and treat these pollutants, designated current problematic issues by the European Commission. Green areas are pointed out by experts as natural filters for contaminants in cities, through their capacity of retention by vegetation. These spaces have thus the capacity to control the load of pollutants transported. This study investigates the spatial distribution of microplastics in urban soils of different land uses, their transport through atmospheric deposition, wind erosion, runoff and streams, as well as their deposition in vegetation like grass and tree leaves in urban environment. Coimbra, a medium large city located in the central Portugal, is the case-study. All the soil, sediments, water and vegetation samples were collected in Coimbra and were later analyzed in the Wageningen University & Research laboratory. Microplastics were extracted through the density separation using Sodium Phosphate as solution (~1.4 g cm−3) and filtration methods, visualized under a stereo microscope and identified using the u-FTIR method. Microplastic particles were found in all the different samples. In terms of soils, higher concentrations of microplastics were found in green parks, followed by landfills and industrial places, and the lowest concentrations in forests and pasture land-uses. Atmospheric deposition and streams after rainfall events seems to represent the strongest pathways of microplastics. Tree leaves can retain microplastics on their surfaces. Small leaves such as needle leaves seem to present higher amounts of microplastics per leaf area than bigger leaves. Rainfall episodes seem to reduce the concentration of microplastics on leaves surface, which suggests the wash of microplastics down to lower levels of the tree or to the soil. When in soil, different types of microplastics could be transported to the atmosphere through wind erosion. Grass seems to present high concentrations of microplastics, and the enlargement of the grass cover leads to a reduction of the amount of microplastics in soil, but also of the microplastics moved from the ground to the atmosphere by wind erosion. This study proof that vegetation can help to control the transport and dispersion of microplastics. In order to control the entry and the concentration of microplastics in the environment, especially in cities, it is essential to defining and evaluating nature-based land-use scenarios, considering the role of green urban areas in filtering small particles.

Keywords: microplastics, cities, sources, pathways, vegetation

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Authors: Jaturong Som-ard

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The heavy rainfall from 3rd to 22th January 2017 had swamped much area of Ranot district in southern Thailand. Due to heavy rainfall, the district was flooded which had a lot of effects on economy and social loss. The major objective of this study is to detect flooding extent using Sentinel-1A data and identify a number of damaged buildings over there. The data were collected in two stages as pre-flooding and during flood event. Calibration, speckle filtering, geometric correction, and histogram thresholding were performed with the data, based on intensity spectral values to classify thematic maps. The maps were used to identify flooding extent using change detection, along with the buildings digitized and collected on JOSM desktop. The numbers of damaged buildings were counted within the flooding extent with respect to building data. The total flooded areas were observed as 181.45 sq.km. These areas were mostly occurred at Ban khao, Ranot, Takhria, and Phang Yang sub-districts, respectively. The Ban khao sub-district had more occurrence than the others because this area is located at lower altitude and close to Thale Noi and Thale Luang lakes than others. The numbers of damaged buildings were high in Khlong Daen (726 features), Tha Bon (645 features), and Ranot sub-district (604 features), respectively. The final flood extent map might be very useful for the plan, prevention and management of flood occurrence area. The map of building damage can be used for the quick response, recovery and mitigation to the affected areas for different concern organization.

Keywords: flooding extent, Sentinel-1A data, JOSM desktop, damaged buildings

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Authors: Gopika Rajagopal, Sudheesh Thiyyakkandi

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Back-to-back reinforced earth (RE) walls are extensively used in these days as bridge abutments and highway ramps, owing to their cost efficiency and ease of construction. High quality select fill is the most suitable backfill material due to its excellent engineering properties and constructability. However, industries are compelled to use low quality, locally available soil because of its ample availability on site. However, several failure cases of such walls are reported, especially subsequent to rainfall events. The stiffness of reinforcement is one of the major factors affecting the performance of RE walls. The present study focused on analyzing the effect of reinforcement stiffness on the performance of complete select fill, complete marginal fill, and hybrid-fill (i.e., combination of select and marginal fills) back-to-back RE walls, immediately after construction and upon rainwater infiltration through finite element modelling. A constant width to height (W/H) ratio of 3 and height (H) of 6 m was considered for the numerical analysis and the stiffness of reinforcement layers was varied from 500 kN/m to 10000 kN/m. Results showed that reinforcement stiffness had a noticeable influence on the response of RE wall, subsequent to construction as well as rainwater infiltration. Facing displacement was found to decrease and maximum reinforcement tension and factor of safety were observed to increase with increasing the stiffness of reinforcement. However, beyond a stiffness of 5000 kN/m, no significant reduction in facing displacement was observed. The behavior of fully marginal fill wall considered in this study was found to be reasonable even after rainwater infiltration when the high stiffness reinforcement layers are used.

Keywords: back-to-back reinforced earth wall, finite element modelling, rainwater infiltration, reinforcement stiffness

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Authors: Vathanachannbo Veth, Ilan Ich, Sophea Rom Phy, Ty Sok, Layheang Song, Sophal Try, Chantha Oeurng

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Climate change is one of the major global challenges inducing disaster risks and threatening livelihoods and communities through adverse impacts on food and water security, ecosystems, and services. Prek Thnot River Basin of Cambodia is one of the largest tributaries in the Lower Mekong that has been exposed to hazards and disasters, particularly floods and is said to be the effect of climate change. Therefore, the assessment of precipitation and streamflow changes under the effect of climate change was proposed in this river basin using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and different flow indices under baseline (1997 to 2011) and climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with three General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL, GISS, and IPSL) in two time-horizons: near future (the 2030s: 2021 to 2040) and medium future (2060s: 2051 to 2070). Both intensity and frequency indices compared with the historical extreme rainfall indices significantly change in the GFDL under the RCP8.5 for both 2030s and 2060s. The average rate change of Rx1day, Rx10day, SDII, and R20mm in the 2030s and 2060s of both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 was found to increase in GFDL and decrease in both GISS and IPSL. The mean percentage change of the flow analyzed in the IHA tool (Group1) indicated that the flow in the Prek Thnot River increased in GFDL for both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in both 2030s and 2060s, oppositely in GISS, the flow decreases. Moreover, the IPSL affected the flow by increasing in five months (January, February, October, November, and December), and in the other seven months, the flow decreased accordingly. This study provides water resources managers and policymakers with a wide range of precipitation and water flow projections within the Prek Thnot River Basin in the context of plausible climate change scenarios.

Keywords: IHA, climate change, disaster risk, Prek Thnot River Basin, Cambodia

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Authors: Zhipeng Yan, Janice Wing-Tung Kwong, Ching-Lung Lai

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Background: Advanced melanoma accounts for the majority of skin cancer death due to its poor prognosis. Nivolumab and ipilimumab are monoclonal antibodies targeting programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) and cytotoxic T-lymphocytes antigen 4 (CTLA-4). Nivolumab and ipilimumab combination therapy has been proven to be effective for advanced melanoma. This systematic review and meta-analysis are to evaluate its clinical efficacy and adverse events. Method: A systematic search was done on databases (Pubmed, Embase, Medline, Cochrane) on 21 June 2020. Search keywords were nivolumab, ipilimumab, melanoma, and randomised controlled trials. Clinical trials fulfilling the inclusion criteria were selected to evaluate the efficacy of combination therapy in terms of prolongation of progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and objective response rate (ORR). The odd ratios and distributions of grade 3 or above adverse events were documented. Subgroup analysis was performed based on PD-L1 expression-status and BRAF-mutation status. Results: Compared with nivolumab monotherapy, the hazard ratios of PFS, OS and odd ratio of ORR in combination therapy were 0.64 (95% CI, 0.48-0.85; p=0.002), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.95; p=0.007) and 1.76 (95% CI, 1.51-2.06; p < 0.001), respectively. Compared with ipilimumab monotherapy, the hazard ratios of PFS, OS and odd ratio of ORR were 0.46 (95% CI, 0.37-0.57; p < 0.001), 0.54 (95% CI, 0.48-0.61; p < 0.001) and 6.18 (95% CI, 5.19-7.36; p < 0.001), respectively. In combination therapy, the odds ratios of grade 3 or above adverse events were 4.71 (95% CI, 3.57-6.22; p < 0.001) compared with nivolumab monotherapy, and 3.44 (95% CI, 2.49-4.74; p < 0.001) compared with ipilimumab monotherapy, respectively. High PD-L1 expression level and BRAF mutation were associated with better clinical outcomes in patients receiving combination therapy. Conclusion: Combination therapy is effective for the treatment of advanced melanoma. Adverse events were common but manageable. Better clinical outcomes were observed in patients with high PD-L1 expression levels and positive BRAF-mutation.

Keywords: nivolumab, ipilimumab, advanced melanoma, systematic review, meta-analysis

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Authors: Duhania O. Mahara, Santi W. Purnami, Aulia N. Fitria, Merissa N. Z. Wirontono, Revina Musfiroh, Shofi Andari, Sagiran Sagiran, Estiana Khoirunnisa, Wahyudi Widada

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For assessing interventions in numerous disease areas, the use of multiple time-to-event outcomes is common. An individual might experience two different events called bivariate time-to-event data, the events may be correlated because it come from the same subject and also influenced by individual characteristics. The bivariate time-to-event case can be applied by copula-based bivariate Cox survival model, using the Clayton and Frank copulas to analyze the dependence structure of each event and also the covariates effect. By applying this method to modeling the recurrent event infection of hemodialysis insertion on chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, from the AIC and BIC values we find that the Clayton copula model was the best model with Kendall’s Tau is (τ=0,02).

Keywords: bivariate cox, bivariate event, copula function, survival copula

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Amidu Owolabi Ayeni

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Studies have shown that spatio-temporal distribution and variability of climatic variables, urban land use, and population have had substantial impact on water supply. It is based on these facts that the impacts of climate, urbanization, and population on water supply in Lagos State Nigeria remain the focus of this study. Population and water production data on Lagos State between 1963 and 2006 were collected, and used for time series and projection analyses. Multi-temporal land-sat images of 1975, 1995 and NigeriaSat-1 imagery of 2007 were used for land use change analysis. The population of Lagos State increased by about 557.1% between 1963 and 2006, correspondingly, safe water supply increased by 554%. Currently, 60% of domestic water use in urban areas of Lagos State is from groundwater while 75% of rural water is from unsafe surface water. Between 1975 and 2007, urban land use increased by about 235.9%. The 46years climatic records revealed that temperature and evaporation decreased slightly while rainfall and Relatively Humidity (RH) decreased consistently. Based on these trends, the Lagos State population and required water are expected to increase to about 19.8millions and 2418.9ML/D respectively by the year 2026. Rainfall is likely to decrease by -6.68mm while temperature will increase by 0.950C by 2026. Urban land use is expected to increase by 20% with expectation of serious congestion in the suburb areas. With these results, over 50% of the urban inhabitants will be highly water poor in future if the trends continue unabated.

Keywords: challenges, climate change, urbanization, water supply

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Authors: Kwaku Damoah

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This study presents a comprehensive data-driven analysis to understand the evolution of adverse events (AEs) in pharmacovigilance. Utilizing data from the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), we employed three analytical methods: rank-based, frequency-based, and percentage change analyses. These methods assessed temporal trends and patterns in AE reporting, focusing on various drug-active ingredients and patient demographics. Our findings reveal significant trends in AE occurrences, with both increasing and decreasing patterns from 2000 to 2023. This research highlights the importance of continuous monitoring and advanced analysis in pharmacovigilance, offering valuable insights for healthcare professionals and policymakers to enhance drug safety.

Keywords: event analysis, FDA adverse event reporting system, pharmacovigilance, temporal trend analysis

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Authors: Zulfajri Basri Hasanuddin

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There is an increasing demand for broadband services in Indonesia. Therefore, the answer is the use of Ka-Band which has some advantages such as wider bandwidth, the higher transmission speeds, and smaller size of antenna in the ground. However, rain attenuation is the primary factor in the degradation of signal at the Kaband. In this paper, the author will determine whether the Ka-band frequency can be implemented in Indonesia which has high intensity of rainfall.

Keywords: Ka-band, link budget, link availability, BER, Eb/No, C/N

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Authors: Changyin Zhou

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Ba constructions are a special type of constructions in Chinese. Their syntactic behaviors are closely related to their event structural properties. The existing study which treats the semantic function of Ba as causative meets difficulty in treating the discrepancy between Ba constructions and their corresponding constructions without Ba in expressing causativity. This paper holds that Ba in Ba constructions is a functional category expressing affectedness. The affectedness expressed by Ba can be positive or negative. The functional category Ba expressing negative affectedness has the semantic property of being 'expected'. The precondition of Ba construction is the boundedness of the event concerned. This paper, holding the parallelism between motion events and change-of-state events, proposes a syntactic model based on the notions of boundedness and affectedness, discusses the transformations between Ba constructions and the related resultative constructions, and derivates the various Ba constructions concerned.

Keywords: affectedness, Ba constructions, boundedness, event structure, resultative constructions

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Authors: Giulia Bonaldo, Alberto Vaccheri, Ottavio D'Annibali, Domenico Motola

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The Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) was shown to be the cause of different types of carcinomas, first of all of the cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. Since the early 80s to today, thanks first to the preventive screening campaigns (pap-test) and following to the introduction of HPV vaccines on the market; the number of new cases of cervical cancer has decreased significantly. The HPV vaccines currently approved are three: Cervarix® (HPV2 - virus type: 16 and 18), Gardasil® (HPV4 - 6, 11, 16, 18) and Gardasil 9® (HPV9 - 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, 58), which all protect against the two high-risk HPVs (6, 11) that are mainly involved in cervical cancers. Despite the remarkable effectiveness of these vaccines has been demonstrated, in the recent years, there have been many complaints about their risk-benefit profile due to Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI). The purpose of this study is to provide a support about the ongoing discussion on the safety profile of HPV vaccines based on real life data deriving from spontaneous reports of suspected AEFIs collected in the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS). VAERS is a freely-available national vaccine safety surveillance database of AEFI, co-administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA). We collected all the reports between January 2007 to December 2017 related to the HPV vaccines with a brand name (HPV2, HPV4, HPV9) or without (HPVX). A disproportionality analysis using Reporting Odds Ratio (ROR) with 95% confidence interval and p value ≤ 0.05 was performed. Over the 10-year period, 54889 reports of AEFI related to HPV vaccines reported in VAERS, corresponding to 224863 vaccine-event pairs, were retrieved. The highest number of reports was related to Gardasil (n = 42244), followed by Gardasil 9 (7212) and Cervarix (3904). The brand name of the HPV vaccine was not reported in 1529 cases. The two events more frequently reported and statistically significant for each vaccine were: dizziness (n = 5053) ROR = 1.28 (CI95% 1.24 – 1.31) and syncope (4808) ROR = 1.21 (1.17 – 1.25) for Gardasil. For Gardasil 9, injection site pain (305) ROR = 1.40 (1.25 – 1.57) and injection site erythema (297) ROR = 1.88 (1.67 – 2.10) and for Cervarix, headache (672) ROR = 1.14 (1.06 – 1.23) and loss of consciousness (528) ROR = 1.71 (1.57 – 1.87). In total, we collected 406 reports of death and 2461 cases of permanent disability in the ten-year period. The events consisting of incorrect vaccine storage or incorrect administration were not considered. The AEFI analysis showed that the most frequently reported events are non-serious and listed in the corresponding SmPCs. In addition to these, potential safety signals arose regarding less frequent and severe AEFIs that would deserve further investigation. This already happened with the referral of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for the adverse events POTS (Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome) and CRPS (Complex Regional Pain Syndrome) associated with anti-papillomavirus vaccines.

Keywords: adverse drug reactions, pharmacovigilance, safety, vaccines

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Authors: Serap Kaymakci, Dogan Gundogdu, M. Bugra Yagcioglu

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Erosion (soil erosion) is a phenomenon in which the soil on the slope surface is exposed to natural influences such as wind, rainfall, etc. in open areas. The most natural solution to prevent erosion is to plant surfaces exposed to erosion. However, proper ground and natural conditions must be provided in order for planting to occur. Erosion is prevented in a fast and natural way and the loss of soil is reduced mostly. Lead to allowing plants to hold onto the soil with its three-dimensional and hollow structure are as follows: The types of geomat called MacMat that is used in a case study in Turkey in order to prevent water carry over due to rainfall. The geosynthetic combined with double twisted steel wire mesh. That consists of 95% Zn–5% Al alloy coated double twisted steel wire based that is a reinforced MacMat (geosynthetic three-dimensional erosion control mat) obtained by a polypropylene consisted (mesh type 8x10-Wire diam. 2.70 mm–95% Zn–5% Al alloy coated). That is developed by the progress of the technology. When using reinforced MacMat on top clay liners, fixing pins should not be used as they will rupture the mats. Mats are simply anchored (J Type) in the top trench and, if necessary, in intermediate berm trenches. If the slope angle greater than 20°, it is necessary to use additional rebar depending soil properties also. These applications may have specific technical and installation requirements. In that project, the main purpose is erosion control after that is greening. There is a slope area around the factory which is located in Gebze, İstanbul.

Keywords: erosion, GeoMat, geosynthetic, slope

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Authors: Scott A. Abbott

Abstract:

This paper examines the increase in the occurrence of natural disasters worldwide and the need to support vulnerable communities in post-disaster recovery. Preparation and implementation of post-disaster recovery projects need to be improved to allow communities to recover infrastructure, housing, economically and socially following a catastrophe. With the continual rise in catastrophic events worldwide due to climate change, impacts on construction resources affect the ability for post-disaster recovery to be undertaken. This research focuses on case studies of catastrophic events in Queensland, Australia, to contribute to the body of knowledge and gain valuable insights on lessons learned from past events and how they have been managed. The aim of this research is to adopt qualitative data using semi-structured interviews from participants predominantly from the insurance sector to understand barriers that have previously and currently exist in post-disaster recovery. Existing literature was reviewed to reveal gaps in knowledge that needed to be tested. Qualitative data was collected and summarised from field research with the results analysed and discussed. Barriers that impacted post-disaster recovery included time, cost, and resource capability and capacity. Causal themes that impacted time and cost were identified as decision making, pre-planning, and preparedness, as well as effective communication across stakeholders. The research study applied a qualitative approach to the existing literature and case studies across Queensland, Australia, to identify existing and new barriers that impact post-disaster recovery. It was recommended to implement effective procurement strategies to assist in cost control; implement pre-planning and preparedness strategies across funder, contractor, and local governments; more effective and timely decision making to reduce time and cost impacts.

Keywords: construction recovery, cost, disaster recovery, resources, time

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Ijaz Ahmed, Anwar Zada, Muhammad Waqas, M. U. Ashraf

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We demonstrate the performance of a very efficient tagger applies on hadronically decaying top quark pairs as signal based on deep neural network algorithms and compares with the QCD multi-jet background events. A significant enhancement of performance in boosted top quark events is observed with our limited computing resources. We also compare modern machine learning approaches and perform a multivariate analysis of boosted top-pair as well as single top quark production through weak interaction at √s = 14 TeV proton-proton Collider. The most relevant known background processes are incorporated. Through the techniques of Boosted Decision Tree (BDT), likelihood and Multlayer Perceptron (MLP) the analysis is trained to observe the performance in comparison with the conventional cut based and count approach

Keywords: top tagger, multivariate, deep learning, LHC, single top

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: K. Mirudhula, R. Saravanan

Abstract:

Bhavani basin is the fourth largest Sub Basin in the Cauvery basin. The entire command area of all three major canals that takes off from the Bhavani river falls within the Erode District i.e. Lower Bhavani Project (LBP), Kodiveri and Kalingarayan canals. The LBP canal is a major source of irrigation in Erode District. Many of these canals are unlined and leakage takes place from them. Thus the seepage from the canal helps in recharging the wells in the area, enabling to get adequate water supply for the crops when water was not released from Bhavanisagar Dam. In this study, the groundwater recharge is determined by groundwater flow modeling using Visual MODFLOW model. For this purpose, three major natural sources of groundwater recharge are taken into consideration such as rainfall infiltration, canal seepage and return flow of irrigation. The model was run and ZONEBUDGET gives an idea about the amount of recharge from lined/unlined canal to the field. Unlined canal helps to recharge the groundwater about 20% more than the lined canal. The analysis reveals that the annual rainfall also has rapidly changed in this region. In the LBP canal Head reach meets their requirement with available quantity of water from the canal system. Tail end reach does not receive the required quantity of water because of seepage loss and conveyance loss. Hence the lined canal can be provided for full length of the main canal. Branch canals and minor distributaries are suggested to maintain the canals with unlined canal system.

Keywords: lower Bhavani basin, erode, groundwater flow modeling, irrigation practice, lined canal system

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Suraj Jena, Rabindra Kumar Panda

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The study region of the reported study was in Eastern India, having a sub-humid sub-tropical climate and sandy loam soil. The rainfall in this region has wide temporal and spatial variation. Due to lack of adequate surface water to meet the irrigation and household demands, groundwater is being over exploited in that region leading to continuous depletion of groundwater level. Therefore, there is an obvious urgency in reversing the depleting groundwater level through induced recharge, which becomes more critical under the climate change scenarios. The major goal of the reported study was to investigate the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and subsequent adaptation strategies. Groundwater recharge was modelled using HELP3, a quasi-two-dimensional, deterministic, water-routing model along with global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios, to examine the changes in groundwater recharge rates for a 2030 climate under a variety of soil and vegetation covers. The relationship between the changing mean annual recharge and mean annual rainfall was evaluated for every combination of soil and vegetation using sensitivity analysis. The relationship was found to be statistically significant (p<0.05) with a coefficient of determination of 0.81. Vegetation dynamics and water-use affected by the increase in potential evapotranspiration for large climate variability scenario led to significant decrease in recharge from 49–658 mm to 18–179 mm respectively. Therefore, appropriate conjunctive use, irrigation schedule and enhanced recharge practices under the climate variability and land use/land cover change scenarios impacting the groundwater recharge needs to be understood properly for groundwater sustainability.

Keywords: Groundwater recharge, climate variability, Land use/cover, GCM

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Dibakar Chakrabarty, Mebada Suiting

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Rapid urbanization coupled with changes in land use pattern results in increasing peak discharge and shortening of catchment time of concentration. The consequence is floods, which often inundate roads and inhabited areas of cities and towns. Management of storm water resulting from rainfall has, therefore, become an important issue for the municipal bodies. Proper management of storm water obviously includes adequate design of storm water drainage networks. The design of storm water network is a costly exercise. Least cost design of storm water networks assumes significance, particularly when the fund available is limited. Optimal design of a storm water system is a difficult task as it involves the design of various components, like, open or closed conduits, storage units, pumps etc. In this paper, a methodology for least cost design of storm water drainage systems is proposed. The methodology proposed in this study consists of coupling a storm water simulator with an optimization method. The simulator used in this study is EPA’s storm water management model (SWMM), which is linked with Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization method. The model proposed here is a mixed integer nonlinear optimization formulation, which takes care of minimizing the sectional areas of the open conduits of storm water networks, while satisfactorily conveying the runoff resulting from rainfall to the network outlet. Performance evaluations of the developed model show that the proposed method can be used for cost effective design of open conduit based storm water networks.

Keywords: genetic algorithm (GA), optimal design, simulation-optimization, storm water network, SWMM

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Ana Breda, Catarina Cruz

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Daily, we face unpredictable events, often attributed to chance, as there is no justification for such an occurrence. Chance, understood as a source of uncertainty, is present in several aspects of human life, such as weather forecasts, dice rolling, and lottery. Surprisingly, humans and some animals can quickly adjust their behavior to handle efficiently doubly stochastic processes (random events with two layers of randomness, like unpredictable weather affecting dice rolling). This adjustment ability suggests that the human brain has built-in mechanisms for perceiving, understanding, and responding to simple probabilities. It also explains why current trends in mathematics education include probability concepts in official curriculum programs, starting from the third year of primary education onwards. In the first years of schooling, children learn to use a certain type of (specific) vocabulary, such as never, always, rarely, perhaps, likely, and unlikely, to help them to perceive and understand the probability of some events. These are keywords of crucial importance for their perception and understanding of probabilities. The development of the probabilistic concepts comes from facts and cause-effect sequences resulting from the subject's actions, as well as the notion of chance and intuitive estimates based on everyday experiences. As part of a junior summer school program, which took place at a Portuguese university, a non-formal learning experiment was carried out with 18 children in the 5th and 6th grades. This experience was designed to be implemented in a dynamic of a serious ice-breaking game, to assess their levels of probabilistic, critical, and creative thinking in understanding impossible, certain, equally probable, likely, and unlikely events, and also to gain insight into how the non-formal learning context influenced their achievements. The criteria used to evaluate probabilistic thinking included the creative ability to conceive events classified in the specified categories, the ability to properly justify the categorization, the ability to critically assess the events classified by other children, and the ability to make predictions based on a given probability. The data analysis employs a qualitative, descriptive, and interpretative-methods approach based on students' written productions, audio recordings, and researchers' field notes. This methodology allowed us to conclude that such an approach is an appropriate and helpful formative assessment tool. The promising results of this initial exploratory study require a future research study with children from these levels of education, from different regions, attending public or private schools, to validate and expand our findings.

Keywords: critical and creative thinking, non-formal mathematics learning, probabilistic thinking, serious game

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Authors: Poopak Dehshahri

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The applicability of intellectual property rights in the sports industry from the present paper’s perspective includes athletic skills, which are comprised of two parts: athletic movements and athletic methods. Also, the applicability pertaining to the athletes᾽ personality, such as the Name, the Image, the Voice, the Signature and their Shirt Number, are deemed as related to the sports natural persons. Radio and TV broadcasting rights of the sports events, the signs and symbols of the athletic institutions including the sign and symbol, trademark (brand name), the name and the place of residence of the sports clubs, the Sports events and the special sports, special slogan of the sports clubs or sports competitions and the sports clothing design are Included under the athletic institutions᾽ applicability of intellectual property rights.

Keywords: sport industry, intellectual property, sport skills, right to fame, radio and television broadcasting right, sport sign

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Sara Grazhdani, Alma Cili, Arben Ivanaj

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Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura is an autoimmune disease characterized by the destruction of platelets by immune mediators, their deficient production in the red bone marrow and increased splenic sequestration, leading to the appearance of thrombocytopenia and increased risk of hemorrhage. Treatment is indicated in patients with low platelet counts (<30 x 10 9 /L) who present clinically with hemorrhagic events or are at increased risk for hemorrhage. The goal of the treatment remains (I) prevention of hemorrhagic events and deaths resulting from them, (II) reaching an adequate level of the number of platelets, (III) treatment of patients with as few toxic effects as possible. Corticosteroid therapy remains the first choice in the treatment of patients with Primary Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura. Rituximab (Mabthera) remains the first choice in the second line in the treatment of patients with Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura, refractory to the use of cortisones.

Keywords: ITP, rituximab, prednisolone, relapse

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Babajide Olufemi Diyaolu

Abstract:

The opportunity provided by advances in technology as regards sports betting is so numerous that even at one's comfort, with the use of a phone, Nigerian youth are found engaging in all kinds of betting. Today it is more difficult to differentiate a true fan as there are quite a number of them that became fans as a result of betting on live games. This study investigated the influence of online sports events on betting among Nigerian youth. A descriptive survey research design was used, and the population consists of all Nigerian youth that engages in betting and live within the southwest zone of Nigeria. A simple random sampling technique was used to pick three states from the southwest zone of Nigeria. Two thousand five hundred respondents comprising males and female were sampled from the three states. A structured questionnaire on online sports event contribution to sports betting (OSECSB) was used. The Instrument consists of three sections. Section A seeks information on the demographic data of the respondents. Section B seeks information on online sports events, while section C is used to extract information on sports betting. The modified instrument, which consists of 14 items, has a reliability coefficient of 0.74. The hypothesis was tested at 0.05 significance level. The completed questionnaire was collated, coded, and analyzed using descriptive statistics of frequency counts, percentage and pie chart, and inferential statistics of multiple regressions. The findings of this study revealed that online sports betting is a significant predictor of an increase in sports betting among Nigerian youth. The media and television, as well as globalization and the internet coupled with social media and various online platforms, have all contributed to the immense increase in sports betting. The increase in the advertisement of the betting platform during live matches, especially football, is becoming more alarming. In most organized international events, the media attention, as well as sponsorship right, are now been given to one or two betting platforms. There is a need for all stakeholders to put in place school-based intervention programs to reorientate our youth about the consequences of addiction to betting. Such programs must include meta-analyses and emotional control towards sports betting.

Keywords: betting platform, Nigerian fans, Nigerian youth, sports betting

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Scott Wysong

Abstract:

Qatar will spend billions of dollars to host the 2022 World Cup. While football fans around the globe get excited to cheer on their favorite team every four years, critics debate the merits of a country hosting such an expensive and large-scale event. That is, the host countries spend billions of dollars on stadiums and infrastructure to attract these mega sporting events with the hope of equitable returns in economic impact and creating jobs. Yet, in many cases, the host countries are left in debt with decaying venues. There are benefits beyond the economic impact of hosting mega-events. For example, citizens are often proud of their city/country to host these famous events. Yet, often overlooked in the literature is the proposition that serving as the host for a mega-event may enhance the country’s brand image, not only as a tourist destination but for the products made in that country of origin. This research aims to explore this phenomenon by taking an exploratory look at consumer perceptions of three host countries of a mega-event in sports. In 2014, the U.S., Chinese and Finn (Finland) consumer attitudes toward Brazil and its products were measured before and after the World Cup via surveys (n=89). An Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) revealed that there were no statistically significant differences in the pre-and post-World Cup perceptions of Brazil’s brand personality or country-of-origin image. After the World Cup in 2018, qualitative interviews were held with U.S. sports fans (n=17) in an effort to further explore consumer perceptions of products made in the host country: Russia. A consistent theme of distrust and corruption with Russian products emerged despite their hosting of this prestigious global event. In late 2021, U.S. football (soccer) fans (n=42) and non-fans (n=37) were surveyed about the upcoming 2022 World Cup. A regression analysis revealed that how much an individual indicated that they were a soccer fan did not significantly influence their desire to visit Qatar or try products from Qatar in the future even though the country was hosting the World Cup—in the end, hosting a mega-event as grand as the World Cup showcases the country to the world. However, it seems to have little impact on consumer perceptions of the country, as a whole, or its brands. That is, the World Cup appeared to enhance already pre-existing stereotypes about Brazil (e.g., beaches, partying and fun, yet with crime and poverty), Russia (e.g., cold weather, vodka and business corruption) and Qatar (desert and oil). Moreover, across all three countries, respondents could rarely name a brand from the host country. Because mega-events cost a lot of time and money, countries need to do more to market their country and its brands when hosting. In addition, these countries would be wise to measure the impact of the event from different perspectives. Hence, we put forth a comprehensive future research agenda to further the understanding of how countries, and their brands, can benefit from hosting a mega sporting event.

Keywords: branding, country-of-origin effects, mega sporting events, return on investment

Procedia PDF Downloads 281