Search results for: cost prediction

Authors: Dorota Witkowska, Paweł Gosek, Lukasz Swiecicki, Wojciech Jernajczyk, Bruce J. West, Miroslaw Latka

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In clinical practice, the selection of an antidepressant often degrades to lengthy trial-and-error. In this work we employ a normalized wavelet power of alpha waves as a biomarker of antidepressant treatment response. This novel EEG metric takes into account both non-stationarity and intersubject variability of alpha waves. We recorded resting, 19-channel EEG (closed eyes) in 22 inpatients suffering from unipolar (UD, n=10) or bipolar (BD, n=12) depression. The EEG measurement was done at the end of the short washout period which followed previously unsuccessful pharmacotherapy. The normalized alpha wavelet power of 11 responders was markedly different than that of 11 nonresponders at several, mostly temporoparietal sites. Using the prediction of treatment response based on the normalized alpha wavelet power, we achieved 81.8% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity for channel T4.

Keywords: alpha waves, antidepressant, treatment outcome, wavelet

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar

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The rate of penetration is (RoP) one of the vital factors in the cost and time of tunnel boring projects; therefore, predicting it can lead to a substantial increase in the efficiency of the project. RoP is heavily dependent geological properties of the project site and TBM properties. In this study, 151-point data from Queen’s water tunnel is collected, which includes unconfined compression strength, peak slope index, angle with weak planes, and distance between planes of weaknesses. Since the size of the data is small, it was observed that it is imbalanced. To solve that problem synthetic minority oversampling technique is utilized. The model based on the model tree is proposed, where each leaf consists of a support vector machine model. Proposed model performance is then compared to existing empirical equations in the literature.

Keywords: Model tree, SMOTE, rate of penetration, TBM(tunnel boring machine), SVM

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Authors: Meng Wu

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Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) landing technology is a common task that is required to be fulfilled by fly robots. In this paper, the crazyflie2.0 is located by ultra-wideband (UWB) localization system that contains 4 UWB anchors. Another UWB anchor is introduced and installed on a stationary platform. One cost function is designed to find the minimum distance between crazyflie2.0 and the anchor installed on the stationary platform. The coordinates of the anchor are unknown in advance, and the goal of the cost function is to define the location of the anchor, which can be considered as an optimal landing point. When the cost function reaches the minimum value, the corresponding coordinates of the UWB anchor fixed on the stationary platform can be calculated and defined as the landing point. The simulation shows the effectiveness of the method in this paper.

Keywords: UAV landing, UWB localization system, UWB anchor, cost function, stationary platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Aysun Pınarbaşı, Béla Vizvári

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The countries are the units that procure the vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The delivered quantities are huge. The countries must bear the inventory holding cost according to the variation of stock quantities. This cost depends on the speed of the vaccination in the country. This speed is time-dependent. The vaccinated portion of the population can be approximated by the cumulative distribution function of the Cauchy distribution. A model is provided for determining the minimal-cost inventory policy, and its optimality conditions are provided. The model is solved for 20 countries for different numbers of procurements. The results reveal the individual behavior of each country. We provide an inventory policy for the pandemic period for the countries. This paper presents a deterministic model for vaccines with a demand rate variable over time for the countries. It is aimed to provide an analytical model to deal with the minimization of holding cost and develop inventory policies regarding this aim to be used for a variety of perishable products such as vaccines. The saturation process is introduced, and an approximation of the vaccination curve of the countries has been discussed. According to this aspect, a deterministic model for inventory policy has been developed.

Keywords: covid-19, vaccination, inventory policy, bounded total demand, inventory holding cost, cauchy distribution, sigmoid function

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Authors: Majid Galoie, Khodadad Safavi, Abdolreza Karami Nejad, Reza Roshan

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In this study, a comprehensive scouring model has been developed in order to evaluate the accuracy of various empirical relationships which were suggested for prediction of scour hole depth in plunge pools by Martins, Mason, Chian and Veronese. For this reason, scour hole depths caused by free falling jets from a flip bucket to a plunge pool were investigated. In this study various discharges, angles, scouring times, etc. have been considered. The final results demonstrated that the all mentioned empirical formulas, except Mason formula, were reasonably agreement with the experimental data.

Keywords: scour hole depth, plunge pool, physical model, reliability assessment

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Authors: Haifeng Wang, Haili Zhang

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Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.

Keywords: computational social science, movie preference, machine learning, SVM

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Authors: Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Lidija R. Jevrić, Stela Jokić

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The subject of this paper is to correlate antibacterial behavior of benzimidazole derivatives with their molecular characteristics using chemometric QSAR (Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationships) approach. QSAR analysis has been carried out on the inhibitory activity of benzimidazole derivatives against Staphylococcus aureus. The data were processed by linear least squares (LLS) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The LLS mathematical models have been developed as a calibration models for prediction of the inhibitory activity. The quality of the models was validated by leave one out (LOO) technique and by using external data set. High agreement between experimental and predicted inhibitory acivities indicated the good quality of the derived models. These results are part of the CMST COST Action No. CM1306 "Understanding Movement and Mechanism in Molecular Machines".

Keywords: Antibacterial, benzimidazoles, chemometric, QSAR.

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Authors: Pin-Wei Chiang, Wen-Liang Chang, Ruey-Huei Yeh

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This paper investigates optimal replacement and preventative maintenance policies of secondhand products under a Finite Planning Horizon (FPH). Any consumer wishing to replace their product under FPH would have it undergo minimal repairs. The replacement provided would be required to undergo periodical preventive maintenance done to avoid product failure. Then, a mathematical formula for disbursement cost for products under FPH can be derived. Optimal policies are then obtained to minimize cost. In the first of two segments of the paper, a model for initial product purchase of either new or secondhand products is used. This model is built by analyzing product purchasing price, surplus value of product, as well as the minimal repair cost. The second segment uses a model for replacement products, which are also secondhand products with no limit on usage. This model analyzes the same components as the first as well as expected preventative maintenance cost. Using these two models, a formula for the expected final total cost can be developed. The formula requires four variables (optimal preventive maintenance level, preventive maintenance frequency, replacement timing, age of replacement product) to find minimal cost requirement. Based on analysis of the variables using the expected total final cost model, it was found that the purchasing price and length of ownership were directly related. Also, consumers should choose the secondhand product with the higher usage for replacement. Products with higher initial usage upon acquisition require an earlier replacement schedule. In this case, replacements should be made with a secondhand product with less usage. In addition, preventative maintenance also significantly reduces cost. Consumers that plan to use products for longer periods of time replace their products later. Hence these consumers should choose the secondhand product with lesser initial usage for replacement. Preventative maintenance also creates significant total cost savings in this case. This study provides consumers with a method of calculating both the ideal amount of usage of the products they should purchase as well as the frequency and level of preventative maintenance that should be conducted in order to minimize cost and maintain product function.

Keywords: finite planning horizon, second hand product, replacement, preventive maintenance, minimal repair

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Authors: Julio Manuel De Luis Ruiz, Javier Sedano Cibrián, RubéN Pérez Álvarez, Raúl Pereda García, Felipe Piña García

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Nowadays it is common to resort to aerial photography to carry out the prospection and/or exploration of archaeological sites. In this sense, the classic 3D models are being applied to investigate the direction towards which the generally subterranean structures of an archaeological site may continue and therefore, to help in making the decisions that define the location of new excavations. In recent years, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been applied as the vehicles that carry the sensor. This implies certain advantages, such as the possibility of including low-cost sensors, given that these vehicles can carry the sensor at relatively low altitudes. Due to this, low-cost dual sensors have recently begun to be used. This new equipment can collaborate with classic Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) in the exploration of archaeological sites, but this entails the need for a methodological setting to optimise the acquisition, processing and exploitation of the information provided by low-cost dual sensors. This research focuses on the design of an appropriate workflow to obtain 3D models with low-cost sensors carried on UAVs, both in the RGB and thermal domains. All the foregoing has been applied to the archaeological site of Juliobriga, located in Cantabria (Spain).

Keywords: process optimization, RGB models, thermal models, , UAV, workflow

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Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

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The objectives of this research were to study the factors affecting life quality of residents who lived in the low-cost housing in Thailand. This study employed by quantitative research and the questionnaire was used to collect the data from 400 sampled of the residents in low-cost housing projects in Thailand. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The research results revealed that economic status of residents, government’s policy on dwelling places, leadership of community leaders, environmental condition of the community, and the quality of life were rated at the good level, while the participation of residents, and the knowledge and understanding of community members were rated at the high level. Furthermore, the environmental condition, the government’s policy on dwelling places, knowledge and understanding of residents, leadership of community leaders, economic status of the residents, and participation of community members had significantly affected the quality of life of residents in the low-cost housing.

Keywords: quality of life, community leadership, community participation, low-cost housing

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Authors: Chaiyaporn Yuksen

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Backgroud: Supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) is an abnormally fast atrial tachycardia characterized by narrow (≤ 120 ms) and constant QRS. Adenosine was the drug of choice; the first dose was 6 mg. It can be repeated with the second and third doses of 12 mg, with greater than 90% success. The study found that patients observed at 4 hours after normal sinus rhythm was no recurrence within 24 hours. The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence the recurrence of SVT after adenosine in the emergency department (ED). Method: The study was conducted retrospectively exploratory model, prognostic study at the Emergency Department (ED) in Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. The study was conducted for ten years period between 2010 and 2020. The inclusion criteria were age > 15 years, visiting the ED with SVT, and treating with adenosine. Those patients were recorded with the recurrence SVT in ED. The multivariable logistic regression model developed the predictive model and prediction score for recurrence PSVT. Result: 264 patients met the study criteria. Of those, 24 patients (10%) had recurrence PSVT. Five independent factors were predictive of recurrence PSVT. There was age>65 years, heart rate (after adenosine) > 100 per min, structural heart disease, and dose of adenosine. The clinical risk score to predict recurrence PSVT is developed accuracy 74.41%. The score of >6 had the likelihood ratio of recurrence PSVT by 5.71 times Conclusion: The clinical predictive score of > 6 was associated with recurrence PSVT in ED.

Keywords: clinical prediction score, SVT, recurrence, emergency department

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Authors: S. Girish, N. Ajay

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Permeation properties have been widely used to quantify durability characteristics of concrete for assessing long term performance and sustainability. The processes of deterioration in concrete are mediated largely by water. There is a strong interest in finding a better way of assessing the material properties of concrete in terms of durability. Water sorptivity is a useful single material property which can be one of the measures of durability useful in service life planning and prediction, especially in severe environmental conditions. This paper presents the results of the comparative study of sorptivity of Self-Compacting Concrete (SCC) with conventionally vibrated concrete. SCC is a new, special type of concrete mixture, characterized by high resistance to segregation that can flow through intricate geometrical configuration in the presence of reinforcement, under its own mass, without vibration and compaction. SCC mixes were developed for the paste contents of 0.38, 0.41 and 0.43 with fly ash as the filler for different cement contents ranging from 300 to 450 kg/m3. The study shows better performance by SCC in terms of capillary absorption. The sorptivity value decreased as the volume of paste increased. The use of higher paste content in SCC can make the concrete robust with better densification of the micro-structure, improving the durability and making the concrete more sustainable with improved long term performance. The sorptivity based on secondary absorption can be effectively used as a durability index to predict the time duration required for the ingress of water to penetrate the concrete, which has practical significance.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, service life prediction, sorptivity, volume of paste

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Authors: Lundqvist M., Alwin J., Levin L-A.

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Background: Assistance dogs are dogs trained to assist persons with functional impairment or chronic diseases. The assistance dog concept includes different types: guide dogs, hearing dogs, and service dogs. The service dog can further be divided into subgroups of physical services dogs, diabetes alert dogs, and seizure alert dogs. To examine the long-term effects of health care interventions, both in terms of resource use and health outcomes, cost-effectiveness analyses can be conducted. This analysis can provide important input to decision-makers when setting priorities. Little is known when it comes to the cost-effectiveness of assistance dogs. The study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of certified service or hearing dogs in comparison to regular companion dogs. Methods: The main data source for the analysis was the “service and hearing dog project”. It was a longitudinal interventional study with a pre-post design that incorporated fifty-five owners and their dogs. Data on all relevant costs affected by the use of a service dog such as; municipal services, health care costs, costs of sick leave, and costs of informal care were collected. Health-related quality of life was measured with the standardized instrument EQ-5D-3L. A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis. Outcomes were estimated over a 10-year time horizon. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as cost per gained quality-adjusted life year was the primary outcome. The analysis employed a societal perspective. Results: The result of the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that compared to a regular companion dog, a certified dog is cost-effective with both lower total costs [-32,000 USD] and more quality-adjusted life-years [0.17]. Also, we will present subgroup results analyzing the cost-effectiveness of physicals service dogs and diabetes alert dogs. Conclusions: The study shows that a certified dog is cost-effective in comparison with a regular companion dog for individuals with functional impairments or chronic diseases. Analyses of uncertainty imply that further studies are needed.

Keywords: service dogs, hearing dogs, health economics, Markov model, quality-adjusted, life years

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Authors: Arpit Patil, Atharav Bhagwat, Rajas Bhope, Pramod Bide

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This research integrates IoT and ML to predict heart failure risks, utilizing the Framingham dataset. IoT devices gather real-time physiological data, focusing on heart rate dynamics, while ML, specifically Random Forest, predicts heart failure. Rigorous feature selection enhances accuracy, achieving over 90% prediction rate. This amalgamation marks a transformative step in proactive healthcare, highlighting early detection's critical role in cardiovascular risk mitigation. Challenges persist, necessitating continual refinement for improved predictive capabilities.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, internet of things, machine learning, cardiac risk assessment, heart failure prediction, early detection, cardio data analysis

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Authors: Arsany Philip Fawzy

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This study is going to address the hurdles of project management in the joinery field. It is widely divided into two sections; the first one will shed light on how to execute large-scale projects with a specific focus on the middle east region. It will also raise major obstacles that may face the joinery team from the site clearance and the coordination between the joinery team and the construction team. The second section is going to technically analyze the commercial side of the joinery and how to control the main cost of the project to avoid financial problems. It will also suggest empirical solutions to monitor the cost impact (e.g., Variation of contract quantity and claims).

Keywords: clearance, quality, cost, variation, claim

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Authors: Cassandra Springate, Alexandra Furber, Jack E. Hines

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Objectives: To create an evidence map of the cost-utility studies available with non-small cell lung cancer patients, and identify the geographical settings and interventions used. Methods: Using the Disease, Study Type, and Model Type filters in heoro.com we identified all cost-utility studies published between 1960 and 2017 with patients with non-small cell lung cancer. These papers were then indexed according to pre-specified categories. Results: Heoro.com identified 89 independent publications, published between 1995 and 2017. Of the 89 papers, 74 were published since 2010, 28 were from the USA, and 35 were from Europe, 16 of which were from the UK. Other publications were from China and Japan (13), Canada (9), Australia and New Zealand (4), and other countries (8). Fifty-nine studies included a chemotherapy intervention, of which 23 included erlotinib or gefitinib, 21 included pemetrexed or docetaxel, others included nivolumab (3), pembrolizumab (2), crizotinib (2), denosumab (2), necitumumab (1), and bevacizumab (1). Also, 19 studies modeled screening, staging, or surveillance strategies. Conclusions: The cost-utility studies found for NSCLC most commonly looked at the effectiveness of different chemotherapy treatments, with some also evaluating the addition of screening strategies. Most were also conducted with patient data from the USA and Europe.

Keywords: cancer, cost-utility, economic model, non-small cell lung cancer

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Authors: Cristian P. Topa, Esteban A. Valencia, Victor H. Hidalgo, Marco A. Martinez

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Wind tunnel experiments for aerodynamic profiles display numerous advantages, such as: clean steady laminar flow, controlled environmental conditions, streamlines visualization, and real data acquisition. However, the experiment instrumentation usually is expensive, and hence, each test implies a incremented in design cost. The aim of this work is to select and implement a low-cost static pressure data acquisition system for a NACA 2412 airfoil in an open cycle wind tunnel. This work compares wind tunnel experiment with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation and parametric analysis. The experiment was evaluated at Reynolds of 1.65 e⁵, with increasing angles from -5° to 15°. The comparison between the approaches show good enough accuracy, between the experiment and CFD, additional parametric analysis results differ widely from the other methods, which complies with the lack of accuracy of the lateral approach due its simplicity.

Keywords: wind tunnel, low cost instrumentation, experimental testing, CFD simulation

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Authors: N. Chetty, K. Singh

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In this work, the relationship between the melanin content in a tissue and subsequent absorption of light through that tissue was determined using a digital camera. This technique proved to be simple, cost effective, efficient and reliable. Tissue phantom samples were created using milk and soy sauce to simulate the optical properties of melanin content in human tissue. Increasing the concentration of soy sauce in the milk correlated to an increase in melanin content of an individual. Two methods were employed to measure the light transmitted through the sample. The first was direct measurement of the transmitted intensity using a conventional lux meter. The second method involved correctly calibrating an ordinary digital camera and using image analysis software to calculate the transmitted intensity through the phantom. The results from these methods were then graphically compared to the theoretical relationship between the intensity of transmitted light and the concentration of absorbers in the sample. Conclusions were then drawn about the effectiveness and efficiency of these low cost methods.

Keywords: tissue phantoms, scattering coefficient, albedo, low-cost method

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Authors: Caihong Sun, Xizi Zhang

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Rating prediction is an important problem for recommender systems. The task is to predict the rating for an item that a user would give. Most of the existing algorithms for the task ignore the effect of negative ratings rated by users on items, but the negative ratings have a significant impact on users’ purchasing decisions in practice. In this paper, we present a rating prediction algorithm based on factorization machines that consider the effect of negative ratings inspired by Loss Aversion theory. The aim of this paper is to develop a concave and a convex negative disgust function to evaluate the negative ratings respectively. Experiments are conducted on MovieLens dataset. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods by comparing with other four the state-of-the-art approaches. The negative ratings showed much importance in the accuracy of ratings predictions.

Keywords: factorization machines, feature engineering, negative ratings, recommendation systems

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Authors: Tony Rizk

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Recent material advances and cost efficiencies are transforming the housing industry away from traditional lumber and gypsum material to alternate fiberboard material that is workable and resistant to fire, mold, and pest infestation. The use of these materials may add to the initial cost of construction. However, the life cycle (cradle to grave) cost of houses using these construction materials and methods are lower than the life cycle costs using traditional housing construction materials and methods. This paper will present four (4) case studies of sustainable house projects. Each project was designed and constructed using earthen-based, sustainable fiberboard material that is resistant to fire, mold, and infestation and fabricated at a very low material calorific value. These house projects have a living space ranging from 625 sq. ft. for an accessory dwelling unit and up to 3,200 sq. ft. 1-story and 2-story homes. For each case study, we will present the house engineering design and construction method, the initial construction costs, a summary of the life cycle costs, and a comparison to the life cycle cost of traditional housing available in the literature.

Keywords: residential housing, sustainable housing, life cycle cost, fire resistance, mold, infestation resistance

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Authors: Mohammed T. Hayajneh

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Machining of Metal Matrix Composites (MMCs) is very significant process and has been a main problem that draws many researchers to investigate the characteristics of MMCs during different machining process. The poor machining properties of hard particles reinforced MMCs make drilling process a rather interesting task. Unlike drilling of conventional materials, many problems can be seriously encountered during drilling of MMCs, such as tool wear and cutting forces. Cutting tool wear is a very significant concern in industries. Cutting tool wear not only influences the quality of the drilled hole, but also affects the cutting tool life. Prediction the cutting tool life during drilling is essential for optimizing the cutting conditions. However, the relationship between tool life and cutting conditions, tool geometrical factors and workpiece material properties has not yet been established by any machining theory. In this research work, fuzzy subtractive clustering system has been used to model the cutting tool life in drilling of Al₂O₃ particle reinforced aluminum alloy composite to investigate of the effect of cutting conditions on cutting tool life. This investigation can help in controlling and optimizing of cutting conditions when the process parameters are adjusted. The built model for prediction the tool life is identified by using drill diameter, cutting speed, and cutting feed rate as input data. The validity of the model was confirmed by the examinations under various cutting conditions. Experimental results have shown the efficiency of the model to predict cutting tool life.

Keywords: composite, fuzzy, tool life, wear

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Authors: R. Burahee, B. Chassinat, T. de Laclos, A. Dépée, A. Sastim

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The purpose of this paper is to propose a solution to detect, predict and reconstitute rain drops in real time – during the night – using an embedded material with an infrared camera. To prevent the system from needing too high hardware resources, simple models are considered in a powerful image treatment algorithm reducing considerably calculation time in OpenCV software. Using a smart model – drops will be matched thanks to a process running through two consecutive pictures for implementing a sophisticated tracking system. With this system drops computed trajectory gives information for predicting their future location. Thanks to this technique, treatment part can be reduced. The hardware system composed by a Raspberry Pi is optimized to host efficiently this code for real time execution.

Keywords: reconstitution, prediction, detection, rain drop, real time, raspberry, infrared

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Authors: J. K. Alhassan, B. Attah, S. Misra

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Human beings have the ability to make logical decisions. Although human decision - making is often optimal, it is insufficient when huge amount of data is to be classified. medical dataset is a vital ingredient used in predicting patients health condition. In other to have the best prediction, there calls for most suitable machine learning algorithms. This work compared the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Decision Tree Algorithms (DTA) as regards to some performance metrics using diabetes data. The evaluations was done using weka software and found out that DTA performed better than ANN. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) were the two algorithms used for ANN, while RegTree and LADTree algorithms were the DTA models used. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of MLP is 0.3913,that of RBF is 0.3625, that of RepTree is 0.3174 and that of LADTree is 0.3206 respectively.

Keywords: artificial neural network, classification, decision tree algorithms, diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Kaddi Mohammed, A. Benatiallah, D. Benatiallah

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Data grid is a technology that has full emergence of new challenges, such as the heterogeneity and availability of various resources and geographically distributed, fast data access, minimizing latency and fault tolerance. Researchers interested in this technology address the problems of the various systems related to the industry such as task scheduling, load balancing and replication. The latter is an effective solution to achieve good performance in terms of data access and grid resources and better availability of data cost. In a system with duplication, a coherence protocol is used to impose some degree of synchronization between the various copies and impose some order on updates. In this project, we present an approach for placing replicas to minimize the cost of response of requests to read or write, and we implement our model in a simulation environment. The placement techniques are based on a cost model which depends on several factors, such as bandwidth, data size and storage nodes.

Keywords: response time, query, consistency, bandwidth, storage capacity, CERN

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Authors: Venencia Albert, Arulselvi Subramanian, Hara Prasad Pati, Asok K. Mukhophadhyay

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Acute traumatic coagulopathy in an endogenous dysregulation of the intrinsic coagulation system in response to the injury, associated with three-fold risk of poor outcome, and is more amenable to corrective interventions, subsequent to early identification and management. Multiple definitions for stratification of the patients' risk for early acute coagulopathy have been proposed, with considerable variations in the defining criteria, including several trauma-scoring systems based on prehospital data. We aimed to develop a clinically relevant definition for acute coagulopathy of trauma based on conventional coagulation assays and to assess its efficacy in comparison to recently established prehospital prediction models. Methodology: Retrospective data of all trauma patients (n = 490) presented to our level I trauma center, in 2014, was extracted. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was done to establish cut-offs for conventional coagulation assays for identification of patients with acute traumatic coagulopathy was done. Prospectively data of (n = 100) adult trauma patients was collected and cohort was stratified by the established definition and classified as "coagulopathic" or "non-coagulopathic" and correlated with the Prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score and Trauma-Induced Coagulopathy Clinical Score for identifying trauma coagulopathy and subsequent risk for mortality. Results: Data of 490 trauma patients (average age 31.85±9.04; 86.7% males) was extracted. 53.3% had head injury, 26.6% had fractures, 7.5% had chest and abdominal injury. Acute traumatic coagulopathy was defined as international normalized ratio ≥ 1.19; prothrombin time ≥ 15.5 s; activated partial thromboplastin time ≥ 29 s. Of the 100 adult trauma patients (average age 36.5±14.2; 94% males), 63% had early coagulopathy based on our conventional coagulation assay definition. Overall prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score was 118.7±58.5 and trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score was 3(0-8). Both the scores were higher in coagulopathic than non-coagulopathic patients (prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score 123.2±8.3 vs. 110.9±6.8, p-value = 0.31; trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score 4(3-8) vs. 3(0-8), p-value = 0.89), but not statistically significant. Overall mortality was 41%. Mortality rate was significantly higher in coagulopathic than non-coagulopathic patients (75.5% vs. 54.2%, p-value = 0.04). High prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score also significantly associated with mortality (134.2±9.95 vs. 107.8±6.82, p-value = 0.02), whereas trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score did not vary be survivors and non-survivors. Conclusion: Early coagulopathy was seen in 63% of trauma patients, which was significantly associated with mortality. Acute traumatic coagulopathy defined by conventional coagulation assays (international normalized ratio ≥ 1.19; prothrombin time ≥ 15.5 s; activated partial thromboplastin time ≥ 29 s) demonstrated good ability to identify coagulopathy and subsequent mortality, in comparison to the prehospital parameter-based scoring systems. Prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score may be more suited for predicting mortality rather than early coagulopathy. In emergency trauma situations, where immediate corrective measures need to be taken, complex multivariable scoring algorithms may cause delay, whereas coagulation parameters and conventional coagulation tests will give highly specific results.

Keywords: trauma, coagulopathy, prediction, model

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Authors: Wade Ghribi, Abdelmoty M. Ahmed, Ahmed Said Badawy, Belgacem Bouallegue

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In higher education institutions, the most pressing priority is to improve student performance and retention. Large volumes of student data are used in Educational Data Mining techniques to find new hidden information from students' learning behavior, particularly to uncover the early symptom of at-risk pupils. On the other hand, data with noise, outliers, and irrelevant information may provide incorrect conclusions. By identifying features of students' data that have the potential to improve performance prediction results, comparing and identifying the most appropriate ensemble learning technique after preprocessing the data, and optimizing the hyperparameters, this paper aims to develop a reliable students' performance prediction model for Higher Education Institutions. Data was gathered from two different systems: a student information system and an e-learning system for undergraduate students in the College of Computer Science of a Saudi Arabian State University. The cases of 4413 students were used in this article. The process includes data collection, data integration, data preprocessing (such as cleaning, normalization, and transformation), feature selection, pattern extraction, and, finally, model optimization and assessment. Random Forest, Bagging, Stacking, Majority Vote, and two types of Boosting techniques, AdaBoost and XGBoost, are ensemble learning approaches, whereas Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network are supervised learning techniques. Hyperparameters for ensemble learning systems will be fine-tuned to provide enhanced performance and optimal output. The findings imply that combining features of students' behavior from e-learning and students' information systems using Majority Vote produced better outcomes than the other ensemble techniques.

Keywords: educational data mining, student performance prediction, e-learning, classification, ensemble learning, higher education

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Authors: Amir Taghizadeh Vahed, Adithya Thaduri

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Shovels are the main components in the mining transportation system. The productivity of the mines depends on the availability of shovels due to its high capital and operating costs. The unplanned failure/shutdowns of a shovel results in higher repair costs, increase in downtime, as well as increasing indirect cost (i.e. loss of production and company’s reputation). In order to mitigate these failures, predictive maintenance can be useful approach using failure prediction. The modern mining machinery or shovels collect huge datasets automatically; it consists of reliability and maintenance data. However, the gathered datasets are useless until the information and knowledge of data are extracted. Machine learning as well as data mining, which has a major role in recent studies, has been used for the knowledge discovery process. In this study, data mining and machine learning approaches are implemented to detect not only anomalies but also patterns from a dataset and further detection of failures.

Keywords: maintenance, machine learning, shovel, conditional based monitoring

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Authors: Helen S. Ghali, Haidy S. Ghali, Salma Ibrahim, Ossama Hosny, Hatem S. Elbehairy

Abstract:

Infrastructure systems are essential assets in any community; accordingly, authorities aim to maximize its life span while minimizing the life cycle cost. This requires studying the asset conditions throughout its operation and forming a cost-efficient maintenance strategy plan. The objective of this study is to develop a highway management system that provides medium-term maintenance plans with the minimum life cycle cost subject to budget constraints. The model is applied to data collected for the highway network in India with the aim to output a 5-year maintenance plan strategy from 2019 till 2023. The main element considered is the surface coarse, either rigid or flexible pavement. The model outputs a 5-year maintenance plan for each segment given the budget constraint while maximizing the new pavement condition rating and minimizing its life cycle cost.

Keywords: infrastructure, asset management, optimization, maintenance plan

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

Abstract:

Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: Yilin Liao, Hewen Li, Paula McConvey

Abstract:

Speed skaters often face a risk of concussion when they fall on the ice floor and impact crash mats during practices and competitive races. Several variables, including those related to the skater, the crash mat, and the impact position (body side/head/feet impact), are believed to influence the severity of the skater's concussion. While computer simulation modeling can be employed to analyze these accidents, the simulation process is time-consuming and does not provide rapid information for coaches and teams to assess the skater's injury risk in competitive events. This research paper promotes the exploration of the feasibility of using AI techniques for evaluating skater’s potential concussion severity, and to develop a fast concussion prediction tool using artificial neural networks to reduce the risk of treatment delays for injured skaters. The primary data is collected through virtual tests and physical experiments designed to simulate skater-mat impact. It is then analyzed to identify patterns and correlations; finally, it is used to train and fine-tune the artificial neural networks for accurate prediction. The development of the prediction tool by employing machine learning strategies contributes to the application of AI methods in sports science and has theoretical involvements for using AI techniques in predicting and preventing sports-related injuries.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, concussion, machine learning, impact, speed skater

Procedia PDF Downloads 110